Double Dutch, 9th December 2014
If we can pick winners on a Monday, despite the usual lack of quality, it gives a good psychological boost for the week ahead, as it's always better to be playing with someone else's money and so it proved yesterday, which is great news for followers of this column, whose reader numbers actually doubled yesterday, so hopefully lots of you were on the doubles.
As it was, we had the 1-2 in both races, both our winners drifted slightly out to 3/1 each to give a nice 15/1 double on the day. Those of you doing the forecasts were rewarded in both races and if any was brave enough to do a forecast double, that paid a handsome 116.3/1. I didn't do it, but I guess a couple of you might have.
In fact, the only way the day could have gone better was if the placings had been reversed in race 2 and the 4/1 shot had beaten the 3/1 shot, but let's not be greedy! The results take the P/L to a new high of 89.44pts at an ROI of 11.50% in little over a years worth of selections.
Monday's results were as follows:
Little: won at 3/1 (adv 2/1)
Come Uppence: 2nd at 5/4 (adv 2/1)
£7.13 forecast / £6.00 exacta here.
Golly Miss Molly: won at 3/1 (adv 11/4)
Reality Show: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 3/1)
£16.45 forecast / £17.90 exacta here.
Results to date:
429 winning selections from 1494 = 28.71%
137 winning bets in 388 days = 35.31%
P/L : +89.44pts (+11.50% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
I'm looking for more success to push towards the 100pt barrier via these Tuesday races...
Jockey Paddy Brennan appears to be on top of his game right now and with 8 winners from 30 rides in the last fortnight is currently profitable to follow. He rides Moss On The Mill today, which is his only scheduled "job" here on board a horse that is Tom George's only runner and the yard is coming into decent form too. The horse himself was making both his yard and his chasing debut at Ffos Las nine days ago coming off the back of a 200-day break, but ran well enough to finish third that day.
He stays further than this and likes the soft conditions underfoot and I'd expect him to come on the benefit of that last outing and with Paddy Brennan on board to try and get a bit more from him, he looks to have every chance here today and could well be the winner of this one at 9/4 BOG, whilst the main threat is likely to come from chase debutant King of Glory, trained by Venetia Williams who says this horse will make a better chaser than a hurdler and she should know!
Conditions look fine for him on his chase debut, he'll get the trip and the ground and he has run here in the past, albeit well beaten. Miss Williams has a very good record here at Fontwell, particularly with her chasers and she'll be hoping/expecting that King of Glory makes the small improvement needed upon his hurdles form to take this weak-looking affair at 11/4 BOG (SkyBet).
Anabel Murphy's runners have finished 101415 in the last fortnight, with today's sole entrant Dormouse starting that sequence with a win over today's trip on heavy ground at Lingfield a fortnight ago. He was ridden by Noel Fehily that day, but he is interestingly reunited with AP McCoy today. AP has ridden this horse seven times in the past to three wins and two runner-up finishes with a record reading 1412 in soft (or worse) conditions. Dormouse is a five-time winner over today's trip, goes well at this Class 4 level and also performs when turned back out fairly quickly and is the most likely winner here at 9/4 BOG.
The biggest challenge is expected to come from the unexposed handicap debutant Lochnagar, trained by Venetia Williams, aiming for a cross card double with us! This is his just his fifth start to date and although he was a little disappointing last time out at Chepstow almost three weeks ago, that was his comeback race after a 28-week break from racing. Prior to his break, he had posted three promising efforts over hurdles (2 x maiden, 1x novice) and showed enough potential in those three runs to suggest he'll win races.
The last of those three runs last season was off a mark of 120 and he reappeared off 119 last time out. He seems to have been given a chance at the weights here today, where he has been rated at just 112. He should strip fitter for that recent run at Chepstow and he'll not lack for ground speed, having posted some good performances on the Flat in Europe in and around the 1m4f type of trip, winning twice from nine starts and being the runner-up on three other occasions. His handlers look to have found a good contest for him to be competitive and it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see Lochnagar get off the mark at 5/2 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt doubles as follows:
Moss On The Mill/ Dormouse @ 9.23/1 (23/10 & 21/10 : Betbright)
Moss On The Mill / Lochnagar @ 10.38/1 (9/4 & 5/2 : Betfred & ToteSport)
King of Glory / Dormouse @ 10.38/1 (5/2 & 9/4 : SkyBet)
King of Glory / Lochnagar @ 11.25/1 (5/2 & 5/2 : Betfred & ToteSport)