Double Dutch, 9th December 2015
When you're hungry any morsel will do. We hardly feasted yesterday, but we did at least stop the rot and collect on a double. That is something which has been in short supply recently, so small mercies and all that.
Tuesday's results were as follows:
Katie Too: WON at 4/5 (adv 6/5)
Drumviredy: 3rd at 3/1 (adv 5/2)
April Dusk: WON at 2/1 (adv 15/8)
Abracadabra Sivola: 3rd at 9/4 (adv 7/2)
Results to date:
748 winning selections from 2682 = 27.89%
236 winning bets in 695 days = 33.96%
P/L : +86.6pts (+6.23% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Truly impossible to find a fancied double (I almost went with 8/1 each Hillbilly Boy and Shyron in the 2.25)...
The key to this race could well be Forceful Appeal, a course specialist. He's won five times from 13 starts here, and four from eleven in handicap company. In Lingfield handicaps in today's grade, he's 11133 and has now dropped to a rating three pounds below his last winning mark. He could be poised to strike.
Alongside him, I'll take Big Time, another who looks well treated and with a bit more to come perhaps. He's finished close up third in his last two starts, first in higher grade and then over a shorter trip. The combination of a drop in class and a slightly longer range, allied to a first visit to Lingers on just his seventh career start could work the oracle.
It has been very difficult to find a pair of races today, as I've mentioned. In the end, I've sided with an unraced $750,000 purchase from the John Gosden yard, owned by Coolmore. His name is Hermitage Bay and, drawn 9, he's not optimally berthed for a first time starter.
However, he comes from a very good family - as you'd expect for that sort of coin - and the trainer is in very good form and boasts a 33% 16-from-48 record at the track in the last year.
The one with the best form in the book, in the midst of plenty of untried animals it should be said, is Pinstripe. By Dansili out of a Pivotal mare, he too is very well bred and he's shown a fair amount in two races to date. Again, trap 12 is sub-optimal but Luca Cumani has Jamie Spencer booked for this late-running sort: if anyone can, Spencer can.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows...
Forceful Appeal / Hermitage Bay @ 8/1 (3/1 & 5/4 : PP)
Forceful Appeal / Pinstripe @ 23/1 (3/1 & 5/1 : PP)
Big Time / Hermitage Bay @ 6.88/1 (5/2 & 5/4 : PP)
Big Time / Pinstripe @ 20/1 (5/2 & 5/1 : PP)