Double Dutch, 9th February 2015
It was another Super Saturday for followers of the Double Dutch as Qewy and Baddilini combined to give us a winning double at 26.5/1.
Qewy was really impressive at Newbury, quickening nicely late on to kick 6 lengths clear of the field and justifying my decision not to back the 2/1 favourite, meaning that once again we'd an anxious wait (2.5 hours this time) to see if we could complete the job.
I was surprised to see Baddilini out as high as 7/2 BOG on Saturday morning and even more surprised to see him sent off at 4/1, despite being drawn widest of all. I had intimated that two non-runners meant that he wasn't as wide as he could have been and was able to get across quite readily.
He travelled well throughout but only hit the front in the final 50 yards to beat the fast finishing Money Team by a head and had the latter set off a bit earlier, he'd have probably won.
But, we've lost a few close home in the past, so we'll take this and run, now just needing one more successful double to hit the 150 mark.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Qewy : WON at 9/2 (adv 9/2)
Bouvreuil : 4th at 7/2 (adv 9/2)
Baddilini : WON at 4/1 (adv 7/2)
Boom The Groom : 5th at 9/4 (adv 9/4)
Results to date:
481 winning selections from 1691 = 28.44%
149 winning bets in 438 days = 34.02%
P/L : +96.63pts (+11.04% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Monday is the start of a whole new week and I'll be looking for the winners of...
Where I'm hoping Great Choice will prove to be so! He's still unexposed as a handicap hurdler after just two attempts in which he ran creditably to make the frame on both occasions. His handicap debut came at Cheltenham in mid-November and was the runner-up by just a length over what looks an inadequate 16.5 furlongs and that was off the back of a 7 month absence and with several subsequent winners behind him.
He then had a 2 month rest before reappearing at Wincanton 25 days ago where he finished third, beaten as much by conditions as anything else. He ran out of steam late on and finished third, beaten by 10 lengths on bottomless ground over 2m6f. Better ground and a drop in trip should be all that's required for Great Choice to win today at 15/8 BOG. And it should be said, the fifth placed horse that day (4L further back) has also since won.
The one I'll take as a backup plan is dual course and distance winner, Laughton Park. This 10 yr old has won two of his last four starts, including 2 C&D wins here at a track where his trainer has a remarkable 16/48 record over hurdles in the last four years. The horse has won on both Good to soft and Good ground, so any further drying would be fine for him and today's jockey was on board last time out, when they won by five lengths over track and trip.
The potential fly in the ointment preventing him from producing another big run is the fact that Laughton Park hasn't raced for 315 days and this is reflected in what might prove to be generous odds of 7/1 BOG (if all 8 go to post, that's a decent E/W bet), but he has run creditably in defeat twice in the past after absences of 303 and 313 days.
On paper (and probably on the track!), this looks a poor race, where it might be the best idea to take a couple with recent course (and distance form).
Oak Bluffs has a win under his belt on the tapeta here already, when just getting home by a head over 8.5f three starts ago, whilst his most recent run 24 days ago was over this track and trip and he was a couple of lengths adrift of the winner back in second place. He runs off the same mark of 57 today in what does look a weaker contest, giving him every opportunity to strike again at 3/1 BOG, especially with Tony Hamilton back in the saddle.
My marginal preference, however, is for Luke Morris' ride, Indian Affair at 11/4 BOG. With a 2/46 career record (1/26 on A/W), it's not unreasonable to say he doesn't win often enough and a 0/13 record here at Wolverhampton doesn't exactly inspire confidence, but for a horse regularly beaten everywhere, his finishes of 22622 in his last five starts here at Wolverhampton bring him into consideration.
Tapeta is a unique surface and not horses act on it, but Indian Affair is 622 here on the new track and running off the same low mark of 55 as last time out when just held off by a neck over course and distance gives him an excellent chance of finally returning to winning ways today.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Great Choice / Indian Affair @ 9.31/1 (7/4 & 11/4 : Bet365 & BetVictor)
Great Choice / Oak Bluffs @ 10.50/1 (15/8 & 3/1 : Paddy Power & Stan James)
Laughton Park / Indian Affair @ 29/1 (7/1 & 11/4 : BetVictor)
Laughton Park / Oak Bluffs @ 31/1 (7/1 & 3/1 : BetVictor)