Double Dutch, 9th June 2014
It was almost the perfect end to the week on Saturday, as we'd two nice winners, including a drifter that boosted profits. Both of our other two runners made the frame and one was runner-up for those of you doing the forecasts/exactas. Had Baccalaureate finished second rather than third in race 1, it would have been as good as we can get.
As it was, Mighty Whitey landed that race after drifting out to 7/2 from our advised 9/4, because the money had gone on Baccalaureate (5/4 from 9/4!). As it was, the favourite was back in third, beaten by a good 12 lengths, whilst Mighty Whitey hung on to win by a nose! It was nice to be on the right side of a narrow margin for once, as our selection held off the challenge of a fast finishing 33/1 outsider.
Race 2 went pretty much as expected. The Romford Pele was clearly the best horse in the race and I firmly believed that she was overpriced at 2/1 and all she needed to do was get round to win. I'd sided with Deciding Moment as next best, in case anything went wrong with the favourite and that's the way they finished.
The Romford Pele was eventually sent off at 6/4 and justified those odds by winning comfortably and stringing the field out in the process. She had Deciding Moment 19 lengths back in second in a race, where only 4 of the 7 runners completed the contest. Deciding Moment was a good secondary pick, as he had the remaining two finishers 41 lengths and 64 lengths behind him, as we landed the 1-2 and a tidy £11.20 exacta to top things off.
Saturday's results were as follows:
Mighty Whitey: won at 7/2 (adv 9/4)
Baccalaureate: 3rd at 5/4 (adv 9/4)
The Romford Pele: won at 6/4 (adv 2/1)
Deciding Moment: 2nd at 4/1 (adv 9/2)
The Exacta paid £11.20 for this one.
Results to date:
252 winning selections from 906 = 27.81%
80 winning bets in 236 days = 33.90%
P/L : +35.63pts (+7.58% ROI)
REMINDER: THERE IS NO DOUBLE DUTCH ON SUNDAYS
Typically average Monday fayre everywhere, but I'm hopeful of success with these...
Insaany looks the one to beat here, as he bids to complete a hat-trick inside the last month. He is 2/2 in handicap company after progressing nicely in three maidens (052) to earn a modest opening mark of 68.
After two runs/wins, he now competes off 80, but stills looks well in at the weights. he's the only three year old in the contest and carries a stone less than San Cassiano, the nearest to him in the ratings at 81. He's 2/2 around this trip, has won on both Firm and Good to Soft ground and at 2/1 BOG (Boylesports) will take some beating.
The biggest danger could well be Amaze, who is likely to put on a better show than his bare form would suggest. he may well have been defeated in each of his last 11 outings over a 15-month period, but he won on his last visit to Ayr and has now dropped to a very workable mark of 75, some 7lbs lower than his last win.
Like Insaany, he's getting weight off all his rivals and past runs show he acts well with some cut in the ground and showed signs of a return to form when beaten into 4th place at York last time out (9 days ago). He was 2.75 lengths behind San Cassiano that day, but reopposes on 6lb better terms, which could well be enough here at 5/1 BOG (Stan James)
Ian Williams has a good record in these claiming races and runs two with decent chances here. Of his two runners, I'd have to suggest that although Commissar has a decent profile for the race (and could be a reasonable E/W bet especially if he drifts from his current 6/1 BOG odds), that Incendo is the more likely winner for him.
Despite being thoroughly exposed at 8yrs old after 48 races on the level (plus 3 over hurdles), Incendo comes here in good nick, having won two of his last three outings plus a third place finish and all in similar claiming events.
His overall record in claimers reads 134131 and with doubts about all his opponents here, he's the most likely winner for me at 11/4 BOG.
There are better rated horses in this contest than Commissar, but those horses have earned their marks on the A/W and have disappointed on turf, so I'm taking a chance on a Williams 1-2 with a horse who does at least have some form to call on. He has won two and made the frame once in five starts in Class 5 company and has previously run well on ground quicker than good.
He has been placed in all three starts in and around this trip (321), but has also won over a mile as recently as February, meaning he shouldn't lack for pace late on. He has been in decent form this year with two wins and a place from eight runs. He drops in class today and looks a decent alternative proposition at 6/1 BOG.
4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles, as follows:
Insaany / Incendo @ 10.25/1 (2/1 & 11/4 : Boylesports)
Insaany / Commissar @ 18.50/1 (2/1 & 11/2 : Boylesports)
Amaze / Incendo @ 21.50/1 (5/1 & 11/4 : Boylesports)
Amaze / Commissar @ 38/1 (5/1 & 11/2 : Boylesports)