Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th September 2013

Double Dutch

Double Dutch

Double Dutch, 9th September 2013

Sod's Law struck yesterday to deny us our first winning double of this trial. Race 1 provided us with a nice 4/1 BOG (3/1 SP) winner in the shape of Lancelot du Lac who got home under a patient ride from Jim Cowley and further boosted trainer Dean Ivory's record at York. This was after Hoofalong had reared up in the stalls and relieved himself of his jockey before the race was even underway!

Our second race saw me go with Safe Investment, who was anything but. He was disappointing and needed reminders from a long way out. He plugged on and eventually got home in 4th place, some 26 lengths behind the eventual winner 2/1 Chestnut Ben. And this is where Sod's Law struck. Chestnut Ben was on my shortlist of three, but discarded based on his recent inability to get his nose in front and also because I didn't want to be seen continually backing the top two in the market.

As it was, I went with Wak A Turtle, who finished third at 7/1. His jumping did improve, but he simply wasn't good enough on the day. Hindsight's a wonderful thing and whilst we could have been celebrating an 11/1 maiden double success, we actually lost another couple of points.

Yesterday's results were as follows:

Lancelot du Lac : won
Hoofalong : unseated rider
---------------------------------
Wak A Turtle : 3rd
Safe Investment : 4th

Trial to date:

3 winners from 14 = 21.43%Stakes: 7.5pts
Returns: 1.6pts

P/L : -5.90pts (-78.67% ROI)

Battered and bruised, but undeterred of course as we move in to a new week starting with the...

3.10 Huntingdon

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Tiny Tenor should be the one to beat here and his 11/4 tag suggests that the bookies feel the same way. he's a lightly raced 7 yr old with just six starts to his name (all between May 2012 and 3rd March 2013).

He has changed yard since his last run, but Nick Scholfield has already been on board for three of those six starts, so there's some familiarity there and although he is yet to record a victory, he progressed nicely before his break and a return to that level should be enough here.

If however, he doesn't get home, then he's likely to have the likes of Odin, Alwaystheoptimist and West Brit at his heels and from those three, it's Odin that i have a slight preference for.

Odin is currently available at 9/2 and is a dual code winner. His two wins on the flat last summer will ensure plenty of pace between the hurdles and since switching codes has been a model of consistency with finishes of 41232.

It should also be noted that his trainer Don Cantillon has an excellent record here at Huntingdon with 17 winners from 51 over obstacles.

4.20 Perth

I find very little to separate Outrageous Request and Endeavor, but I do have a slight leaning towards the former. Outrageous Request was a course and distance winner two races ago and can be excused the 4th place over C&D last time out, when he ran from 7lbs out of the handicap.

Endeavor is no stranger to the winners' enclosure, having won 9 of his previous 37 races over hurdles and has been pretty consistent this year, winning four of his eleven races and never failing to finish in the first four home.

There's little to choose between them in the market either, with BOG odds of 3/1 and 4/1 respectively.

4 x 0.5pt BOG doubles as follows:
Tiny Tenor / Outrageous Request @ 15.00 with BetVictor
Tiny Tenor / Endeavor @ 18.75 with BetFred
Odin / Outrageous Request @ 22.00 with Stan James
Odin / Endeavor @ 25.00 with Betfred

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4 replies
  1. jim says:

    Chris, please do not take this comment the wrong way. I am not looking to question you integrity or good intentions. It is always unfortunate when a new tipping venture doesn’t get a flying start. I must question your trial so far stats though. As a bet I would say the strike rate is 0% and highlighting the winners is a bit misleading. In fact by doing so it only compounds the fact that the double dutch has had a poor start. As you are mainly dutching the two market leaders in two races you would expect more winners than 3 from 20 picks (as things now stand) albeit with quite a few non runners. Personally I have looked in each way double bets several times and not made them pay. However I would have though that with a bet that is probably going have a low strike rate when it does it hit you want a fair pair out. May be an each way double dutch with a market leader and a horse that has a fair chance but at a higher price may yield a higher profit in the long run.

    I am sure you hit the net the soon though so keep trying.

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Jim,

      As always, we appreciate and welcome constructive comments on Geegeez.
      I fully agree that it has been a disappointing start and today’s selections mirrored the abysmal quality of racing we seem to be getting on Mondays of late.

      I also agree that the strike rate is lower than 3/14, as we’ve only been paid out on one bet.
      But the claim of a 21% strike rate wasn’t to say we’re doing well, it was to highlight how we’re struggling.

      As for going down an E/W double dutch, I’d rather not go there to be honest. Our readers want a double bet, but the E/W doubles and the subsequent win only doubles didn’t work. This is quite arguably the last chance saloon for the doubles from me, but time will tell if I crack it or not and I’d prefer to be judged after 30 days rather than 5.

      Regards,
      Chris

      • jim says:

        No worries Chris. You do make a good case for you picks and like I said some success will surely arrive. Good luck. I will continue to paper trade if your planning to do at least 30 picks and hopefully you will crack it. As I mentioned I have been looking into doubles for a long time and have always though there must be a way of making them pay. I have had most success with them at major festivals where competitive races can often give a higher price and a better return than the poor day to day fare that you are having to deal with.

        • Chris Worrall says:

          Jim,

          Perhaps I just need someone to suggest I give it up as a bad job.
          It seemed to turn around the fortunes of SotD! 😀 😀

          All the best,
          Chris

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