Dream Lays Review: Final

Dream Lays Final Review

The trial of Dream Lays ran its course over three and a half weeks, and below is my final review.

Before I tell you what I thought, first let me remind you about what the Dream Lays service is.

Dream Lays is, unsurprisingly, a laying service. That is, it seeks to find horses who have a lower chance of winning than their odds suggest. It then suggests these horses are opposed, or layed, on the betting exchanges.

The service only seeks to 'play' when the odds of recommended horses fall into certain odds parameters, as follows. There is a low range and a high range and, at the low end, subscribers would oppose horses priced between 5.9 and 7 (or 4.9/1 and 6/1)  on the exchanges. The high range is between 12 and 17 (or 11/1 and 16/1 in Betfair terms).

Each day, there are around ten to fifteen possible selections, and this is whittled down to roughly three to five daily after the odds consideration has been applied.

Dream Lays subscriptions are monthly, quarterly or annual, with a sliding scale of price depending on how long you sign up for. The monthly ticket is £59, the quarterly £139, and the annual price is £399.

The easiest way to use this service would be with a bot, where one would simply enter the horses and the ranges and allow nature to take its course. Failing that, there is a requirement to track the pre-race markets to check the odds. In fact, there is a slightly bigger (and more universal) problem than that.

It is recommended that subscribers back horses only where their Betfair SP resides within a certain range. Unfortunately, the actual Betfair SP is not known until after the race has started. Consequently, it is quite possible to occasionally bet horses outside of the range when your bot (or your judgment) says the horse will be within the Betfair SP scope.

There has been a number of instances where a horse ran at odds of around 5.91. It is not possible to 'guess' ahead of time which side of the odds cut off these horses would fall, so some small variances from the 'official' results line may be had. In fairness, these things do tend to even themselves out and actually, during the trial, a number of winning (and therefore losing for subscribers) horses fell just inside the range.

It may have been possible in these cases to 'dodge the bullet'.

That observation aside, how did Dream Lays perform? In a word, reasonably. It is my intention in these reviews to give my view on both the trial performance and the likely overall performance. In so doing, I aim to mitigate any short-term triumph or disaster to some degree by projecting forwards. That is clearly more judgment than science and should be taken as such.

However, I have been reviewing betting systems for a good few years now, so my judgment is quite good. 😉

During the trial period, the service has been extremely regimented in its promise to have selections online by 11.30 am GMT, and receives a tick for reliability there.

The actual selections have shown a loss over the trial of £14.70, or 1.47 points. Considering the ranges in which horses are laid, this is negligible. However, it is a loss and that means it is not a profit. (Well done, Einstein! 😉 )

During the trial, some interesting points have been raised about the parentage (if that's the right word) of Dream Lays. A couple of readers have observed how similar - in terms of the selections - it is to another service called It's Lay Time.

I put that to the Dream Lays service provider, Alan, and he told me that this was more than just coincidence. In fact, it transpires that the two services are owned, according to the information I have at least, by ex-business partners, and therefore a shared algorithm is in use here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

However, I'm not entirely satisfied by this, as both websites were registered on the same day (17th March 2007), and both websites retain the same registration details. This implies, and no more than that, that any business partnership that may be present here remains in situ.

In other words, two services advertised separately of each other, despite being related, will bring in more revenue than one... especially if the second one can generate publicity from a re-launch.

Now, with my marketing hat on I 'sort of' salute that. After all, if you subscribe to both, you will realise immediately what is happening and claim a refund on one of the two services. But... if I'm right - and there's no conrete evidence that I am - then the service providers haven't been entirely honest with me.

Anyway, as I say, this is more conjecture than fact on my part, and I offer to you as such.

Do note that Dream Lays has more selections than It's Lay Time, and therefore has different results. This means that, even if the services are still from the same 'stable, that you're getting more action with Dream Lays.

For the trial then, I'll give Dream Lays a 6/10. It's done moderately, and a single winner either losing or falling just the other side of the odds parameters would have seen the service record a profit.

But what about the long-term success prospects? I think they're OK for those who don't mind volatility. Let me expand on that.

Dream Lays has been running since February and in that time has racked up a claimed profit of just over 300 points. My brief search on the internet cannot find a review older than mine, and I'm not certain that results have been proofed anywhere, which means it is impossible for me to categorically state they are accurate and true.

However, again, I have no reason to suggest they're not. But the volatility may well put many off. When you lay a horse at 16.5, and it wins, it is not just one's bank that takes a big hit. It is also one's confidence. This did happen once during the trial, and it will of course happen more often over time.

I would be recommending a deep enough bank with this service: maybe 100 points up to 150 points for the cautious. And, if you have the misfortune to join on a day when a big priced winner (and therefore loser for subscribers) hits the board, you will need discipline.

Overall, the service is easy enough to follow if you accept that you may not get exactly the same results as are displayed (due it not being possible to project Betfair SP), and if you're comfortable with volatility, and if you're fine with the notion that this may be a hybrid of another service which is still available, you might try this one.

That is a lot of 'if's' there, which means my overall rating for Dream Lays is 5/10. There are simply too many question marks over the service for me to be comfortable recommending it to readers.

I sincerely hope the service proves me wrong but, on the evidence I have, it's not one that will make it into the Geegeez portfolio.

Matt

8 replies
  1. John says:

    Hi Matt, Hope the holiday goes well. If you take into account the cost of running a bot and the not insignificant cost of the info it would be a no for me. Reagards John.

  2. craig says:

    Seems like a worrying roller coaster ride. And really, I can’t see the point in paying anyone for lays above 10-1…..It hardly takes genius to suggest they are unliely winners. And of course when they do win the bank takes a terrible hammering. The skill in laying is to minimise risk and maximise the return on investment. One could have a set liability of £100…… A service advising lays at 10-1 can only stake £10…..a service that advises horses no higher than 3-1 can stake 3 times as much on each net for the same risk. I’m currently having a trial with one such service which only advises horses up to 3-1 and has been making good profits from a high strike rate. The lays seem well considered in competetive looking races, with sound reasons to oppose them. Several in the 2-1 to 5-2 range have been well and truly stuffed! This service costs £24 a month which is less than half of Dream Lays and less then a third of the risk at level stakes! There is also a maximum of ONE lay a day which is a sensible strategy aimed at picking the weakest looking short priced favourite each day, with a view to making a realistic 10-15 points a month profit after commission. I won’t name them here for fear of being accused of ‘spamming’!

    Obviously, price in itself doesn’t determine profitablity….strike rate relative to price does. But £59 a month for ‘Dream Lays’ undoubtedly high risk/slow growth/very low return on investment service seems poor value to me.

    On the same theme, I bought the Racing Secrets exposed e-book and it is well worth £7. I then made the mistake of subsrcibing to their member’s service in order to save myself the time and effort of finding lays but they seemed to abandon many of the principles from their own book and lay favourites in weak races and/or make decisions about unexposed horses based on supposition rather than knowledge. I can put up with losing lays, but not with ill-considered ones. Given the common sense and sound principles in the nook I am left wondering if the person running the service has actually read the book!!

    The other service I’m trying now will and does also have losing lays, but so far I have not felt that any of their choices is as rash and risky as Racing Secrets Exposed service. Also I was concerned that RSE were sending me e-mails promoting a number of known scam betting systems. Not necessarily their own, but still widely discredited systems that they still seem happy to earn ‘affiliate’ fees from.

    Happy holidays! 🙂

  3. jim says:

    Dream Lays was reinvented and has been around for about 3 years. If you look back in the proofing tables you will see it was around and being proofed in 2008. The reason for the lack of results prior to february was it needed to be reinvented following a previous failure.
    I struggle to see how this can command over a 50% rating purely on the efficacy of the provider.

  4. Jah Brown says:

    Matt, PLEASE stop that annoying pop up – it’s making me visit this site LESS and I’m sure I’m not the only one. I find it cheap and quite insulting. hanks

  5. jim says:

    The actual price ranges are above 5.9 and 12.0 = 4.91 and 11.01 and below 7.0 and 17.0 = 5.99 and 15.99. I realise you cannot place bets at these prices however because of the process of BSP and if your paper trading then you can achieve these prices. Another one of my concerns with this system as it is impossible to achieve the results because you cannot place bets after BSP has been declared and any system predicated on a falsehood has to be questioned.

  6. james says:

    2nd you on the anoying pop up…..matt cant you find a way for your regular visitors to avoid this pop up?

  7. Graeme says:

    A trader by choice I have been looking at Dreamlays for a while to try to build the bank much higher to trade for higher green up profits

    But I have been noticing that they give the selection in the results but NOT the price at the off it was layed at which makes me a little uncomfortable. I don’t see any point IMO forking out £59 for high priced lays that basically you can just pick yourself by just guessing and praying.
    (I pity those who layed the 100/1 winner over the week-end that was 600/1 on
    betfair)

    I also don’t like losing wads of dosh so that’s one main reason I changed to being a trader and I have seen some large losses to the bank with Dreamlays results, though to be fair they have made it all back during the month.

    Personally I use a varied approach from Ratings to Speed sites. Advanced ratings is one such and the other is racing buzz.. Both are much cheaper than Dreamlays.

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