Dream Lays Service Preview

Dream LaysThere's been a lot of hooplah in recent days / weeks about a service called Dream Lays.

As the name suggests, it's a laying service, which looks to oppose named horses between specific odds parameters.

The selections are available on a special members' site, at or before 11:30 GMT each day.

The cost is £59 for a month, or less for longer subscription periods (£139 for three months, or £399 for a year), so it's not the cheapest service available. But price is relative to value and the quoted historical performance is vastly impressive.

In fact, Dream Lays quotes over £30,000 profit (to £100 stakes) for the year to date. That's over 300 points, which means even if you lay to £10 stakes, you'd be £3,000 in front.

Now whilst I've no particular reason to question the historical performance of the service, I also have no information that supports these statements. So I'd advise readers to track the service's progress here over the next month or so, before committing. (Alas, if you follow my advice you'll only get the selections retrospectively).

Monday saw two selections run at Windsor, and both get beaten, at Betfair SP's of 16.33, and 6.75. And yesterday's sole qualifying selection, Sabratha, could manage no closer than fourth at Betfair SP of 7.4, making it three from three so far.

As you can see, some of the horses chosen are pretty big prices, so you'll need a bank (probably 75-100 points) and good nerves if you plan to actually watch the races! (That said, yesterday's trio of winning losers managed to get no nearer than seventh).

Dream Lays looks to be a serious service for the long term, so I'd advise taking a quarterly subscription as and/or when you decide to get involved. But, as I say, track it here for a while first!

Your first 30 days for just £1
28 replies
  1. Alan says:

    Hi.
    Once again spmeone comes out with a system that could bankrupt yopur betting bank with one hit.
    Why on earth would anyone in there right mind lay a horse at odds of 16.33 to 1,totaly ludicrous,if that wins ,and you have had 100 on it you will be 1600 down.
    A fool ND THERE MONEY ARE SOON PARTED,AND IT ANNOYS ME THAT THESE SO CALLED LAY EXPERTS ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO LAY AT REDICULOUS ODDS.
    This type of system is a sure way to the poor house.

  2. maneman says:

    Dream Lays

    This could so easily become shattered dreams with the kind of prices they are laying at, irrespective of their past performances. Matt you know only too well how unpredictable horse racing can be. I tried the Magic Bullet for a while but same problem with that plus to try to get over the problem of the unpredictable “big hit”, it was a slow burner but it still fails.

    Dream Lays – No definitely not for me and especially at the prices they’re charging, after who’s taking all the risks here!?
    One key aspect of laying is that you MUST keep your liabilities to a minimum.
    M

  3. Graeme says:

    There is another service that only charges £6 a month and I have been watching their results for some time BUT some of their selections can go off at over 60/1!!!!!!. IF anyone wants to keep a check on the results of dreamlays and the selections are a bit high “possibly” it could be used as a place lay service. Problem with this idea is when there are non runners and betfair still pay out to 3 or 4 places. For what dreamlays offers you would be better of just guessing and clicking the lay button yourself and praying.

  4. S says:

    Hahaha, so these guys are back again! Where have the results gone from before February? Were they removed because they were awful?

    A bit of background information. About three years ago I came across a company called its lay time at itslaytime.com. When I found them they had results going back for three years or so and had never had a losing month. I got in touch with them and joined and for a couple of months did very well with them…then it all went horribly wrong and they lost massively. At this stage they e mailed me and said they were having some challenges, but if I wanted to look at dreamlays this was run by “colleagues” of their’s and was doing really well. These had back results looking great so I joined them…and it all went horribly wrong. Then they e mailed me again and told me to look at free-profits.com which was a new company they had just taken over or something and was awesome! Guess what happened!
    Since then I have been given free trial periods with two out of three companies in an attempt to entice me back. They always show great back results but then after two or three weeks it goes awful and into massive negative territory. Interestingly, when the figures start going wrong with these three sites they always stop putting the results up on there web page until it picks up again. Hmmm, both itslaytime and free profits have no results up for July!

    Anyway, I am not saying that dreamlays will go wrong, but I have seen it with them many times now, and I notice that the really awful results for dreamlays and itslaytime have been removed from the site completely. Dreamlays has been going for years so where have the results from pre February gone?!!!

    Hahaha, handle with EXTREME caution!

  5. karen says:

    It is not true that you need to keep your liabilities to a minimum when laying.

    This is the same kind of generalized nonsense as “never back at short odds”.

    The truth of the matter is this…

    If you are backing horses, to make money you must be backing them on average at BIGGER odds than their true chance of winning.

    If you can consistently back EVEN money shots which have a true 4/6 chance (would produce a 60% strike rate) in the long term you’ll make money.

    Likewise – if you can lay 10/1 shots regularly which have a true chance of winning of 20/1 – you will also make money in the long term.

    If you are laying at higher odds, obviously common sense dictates you must use a big betting bank of 100, 200 points etc.

    To say you can’t make money laying big odds or it is the way to the poor house, certainly isn’t true.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi all,

      I agree with Karen regarding the value element of laying. Laying night to follow day tonight at 1.01 would be a terrible bet, whereas laying Big Ben to strike thirteen chimes at midday at 999 would be a great bet.

      The odds have to be less than the true chance in order for value to occur in laying, just as the odds have to be greater than the true chance in backing in order for value to occur.

      The question then becomes, how do we know what the true chance of a horse winning a race is? And this is where it gets tricky, tricky, sticky.

      When you subscribe to a service (backing or laying), you place trust in that service that they have an angle into the market which finds value and thus over time will garner profit. Whether it does or not, either generally or in the case of this Dream Lays trial, remains to be seen.

      But… a) that’s the point of having a trial, and b) this is horse racing which has obvious inherent risk.

      If you’re not comfortable with the level of risk and the ‘black box’ nature of tipping services, this clearly won’t be for you. And even if you are, it may well still not be for you. I’m looking forward to seeing how things pan out over the next month or so.

      One final point about laying horses at big odds: there is always the option to lay to a liability, i.e. have a fixed loss and variable win amount, as opposed to a fixed win and variable loss amount.

      Keep the comments coming – lively debate is good! 🙂
      Matt

  6. Peter Colledge says:

    Picking value horses is a time consuming arduous task, as you well know, Matt. And when I look down a betfair list and see the amounts laid for the ‘last horse’ I wonder how the layer can maintain emotional equilibrium. It happens all the time and if you tread on this particular landmine it could be a Sangin moment. (Terrible analogy and apologies for lack of taste). I’d rather lay odds on horses…I bet you’d win in the long run without hurting too much.

  7. Fred Ives says:

    Hi Matt, any system or service ever invented will get very good times and then bam very bad times. And this works on every system ever invented, when people sell their system they tend to give you the results of the good times, I’m not saying they’re dohonest but of course we all know that some peoples’ character is questionable. I’m sure that a lot of system sellers really believe that their system works.(I remember a system that was advertised in the Racing post some years back, the guy was selling it for 20 pounds and had a four thousand pounds bank. This system went for a year making profit after profit, then one glorious day there were 23 losers on the trot that wiped out the bank) Then as soon as you try their system the bad times come along. What someone has to come up with is a system that can compensate for the bad times. Anyone can run a system when it is winning but what do you do when it goes wrong?

  8. Big Jim Atkins says:

    These guys have been dismissed by The Secret Betting Club as basically fraudsters. They had a terrible run before and simplay backfitted the results clearing out all previous results.

    Champion Lays is a new football service being heavily advertised and also according to The Secret Betting Club should be given a very wide berth. Juggernaut berth.

  9. Mike says:

    Yes i like laying odds on shots and thats why i think the little acorns system works so well, it has for me for the past 10 months – mike

  10. STUARTY says:

    HI all,ive been plagued with emails about numero uno system any know anything about them matt

  11. Pete says:

    Totally agree with you guys. laying at odds of 16 is complete madness and puts you on the road to financial disaster. I have looked at their website and notice that the results don’t show the odds they were laying at and it doesn’t mention anywhere what sort of odds to expect.

  12. chas says:

    Like many here I have my doubts re Dreamlays. They used to proof to Racing-Index for a long time -results nothing to shout about,but at least they had some integrity by proofing.and you could track progress (or lack of ) with some confidence. I emailed Dreamlays with several questions. Apparently the site is under new owners , but they did’nt answer why they have stopped profing to Racing-Index. Also they claim to have ” hundreds ” of members. If so (which I doubt ) not a bad income at £59.00 a go !
    I’ll watch the trial with interest – but will keep my powder dry. Agree with Mike – Little Acorns works well. Small but steady income can be built up – Chas

  13. Francis says:

    Matt,
    I learnt many things early in my betting life: First never pay for tips or systems,Second only bet you can afford to lose,have your “Tank” and bet from that,Third bet only when the odds obtainable equal or better your estimate of “Value”.
    I only bet small amounts for fun nowadays on exchanges,if you want to find lays the Bookies are a good source to start from.
    Couple of fairly recent examples,Dunguib if it won at Cheltenham
    they would refund all losing bets-same offer on Brazil for WC.
    Others offer enhanced odds,sometimes it is just to balance the book-often they have a real loser.
    Systems used a couple when I first started betting and had a ratings plan that gave me a lot of good wins,otherwise not really a fan. A lot of touted systems are rules made up,refined on past results,no way to say if future picks are value or will continue to profit. I knew one man who had a few systems that gave him about 80/100 bets per year,some were for favourites in certain races,others for horses at big odds. Any plan that does not “Throw” up a decent priced winner sometimes not a lot of use.
    A pro punter I knew said systems were **** & a “Minus Expectation”,his advice study form at least 4 hours a day and “Box Clever”!
    Good luck to all!
    Francis

  14. Steve says:

    I look at a paticular forum. The lays have just started about a week ago 5pt per lay Profit stands at 72.5 from zero. Not bad for free.

  15. Alan says:

    Can’t agree with you or Karen on excessive odds when laying. I have a system for selecting horses to lay and I never lay a horse with odds in excess of 4.99 (5/1 SP). Currently this month I am in profit to the tune of 41.71 points. in spite of a loss yesterday of 12.92 points.

    My method is to look at particular horses and establish whether they are a bet or a lay selection or no selection at all. Of my bet selections I have a success rate of 44% and for my lay selections I have a strike rate of 69.60%

    Out of 20 days bets there were 9 losing days and of the 20 days lays there have been 6 losing days.

  16. maneman says:

    Karen,

    You talk nonsense I’m afraid.

    Value is important, yes. However, have you ever considered strike rate, average odds, return on investment etc.

    Simple fact of the matter is if you lay horses at long odds you are going to subject yourself to serious liabilities and we’ve all heard of “sod’s law”.

    M

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Maneman, Alan,

      I’m not asking you to agree with me or Karen, as it’s a matter of personal taste.

      However, you cannot disagree with the fact that if you were allowed to bet – at any price at all! – that night follows day, you would.
      Equally, if you had to lay it at 1.01 you would not be interested.

      Correct? This is our point. You might not like the odds in either case, and that’s a matter of personal taste and subjectivity, but there CAN be value in very short odds when backing and in very long odds when laying.

      As I said, whether that applies to Dream Lays or not remains to be seen…

      Matt

  17. Les says:

    Hi all i want is a lay site that makes a profit. Tried loads but none seem to work. I would like to get home from work about 1.30pm and sit at the computer for an hour and make £50. Would be willing to pay does anyone have any ideas. Les

  18. Catweazle says:

    Hmm, hundreds of members putting the lays in last 10 minutes or as SP-bet? These service knows what horses drifting in price in last minutes. Nice trades, same was seeing with robobets last year. All absolute bullsh** and ripp-off for the customers.

  19. steve says:

    The truth is Karen and Matt are right. As long as the value is there, the difference between quoted odds and true price, the system will make money in the long run. The trouble is that any system can throw up a losing run. What price McCoy riding a winner that has just fallen? We all know it happened. Punters tend to have a short term mentality and want their investment back straight away. Buying shares is the same, yes you can day trade and ride an emotional rollercoaster glued to your screen or you can be in for the long haul, knowing that you will win in the long run. When you buy into a laying system you are making the assumption that all the people who invest their cash and the oddsmakers have got it wrong and the layers have got it right. That is, that a 20:1 horse should be 25:1. If they have got it wrong you have done your money. There’s no subsitute for doing your own research, using every tool available to you, like Matt’s excellent site, but in the end if you hand money over to strangers without a proven track record you are throwing money away. Long term winning means long term. Take the long term view and if you like a system give it a chance, but don’t expect quick returns, laying systems are about margins, tiny, tiny margins that add up in the long run to a good profit, but which in any given period can show significant losses. The acid test is to know the criteria by which the system nominates lays and whether you believe, on the evidence and your own critical faculties, that it makes sense.

  20. Jon says:

    My own laying system lays horses between Betfair SP of 1.90 and 3.50. I have been using this for nearly a year and so far am showing net profits of 56 points to level stakes and 113 points using a simple and non aggressive loss recovery staking plan.

    Selections take five minutes each day and there are usually 3-4 bets max daily.

    The system is not available for sale…why would I want to spoil the golden egg I have found? My point is that the best systems are those you develop yourself and keep to yourself.

    Dream Lays may well be a good long term system but I advise everyone to monitor Matt’s results for a few weeks before parting with your hard earned.

    Cheers
    Jon

  21. maneman says:

    Matt,
    You’ve distorted things by going to extremes and that is ridiculous!
    Would you back a horse at 999 on Betfair? Of course you wouldn’t so why ask such a stupid question as if Alan and I would lay at 1.01.
    Get real Matt and Karen, you both are fully aware of what Alan and I meant and if you don’t believe us perhaps you’d like to consult Jonathan Burgess.

    Apart from the fact that many on here are posting negative comments re: this so called wondrous laying system that appears as if it is a waste of time and money.
    M

  22. colin says:

    Matt,firstly the price for this service is £59.00 plus vat making it £69.32 a month.I purchased this system yesterday and it gave 14 selections of which only one Sabrantha was a qualifier.the races ranged from 2.15 up untill 8.50 .Today there are 16 selections and up to time of writing there have been three qualifiers out of thirteen,Dan Maguire ,15.50 b/f sp(lost)Hypnosis 16.10 b/f/sp(lost)&Zigato 6.90b/f/sp(won)When reading the sales page there is no mention anywhere regarding the price ranges of the selections must be over 5.9 and under 7.00 or over 12.00 and under 17.00 b/f/sp. It amazes me that out of 27 selections there have only been 4 selections within these price ranges as when you look at their results page(March) the fisrt FOUR days produced 19 selections,which the average b/f/sp was 12.5.I also purchased It’s Laytime which i have now realised that the websites are strangely alike,this site also gives multiple selections a day with price ranges slightly different to Dream Lays as theres are 3.0-10.0 b/f/sp to which i’ve just logged onto as i bought a six month membership.Today they give 24 selections of which there are 9 duplicated of the Dream Lays selections.This seems awfully co-incidental.P.s The only decent system I have purchased lately is Favourites Phenonemom.THIS ONE DOES WORK Colin

  23. alex says:

    BigJim, when did secret betting club say this

    Champion Lays is a new football service being heavily advertised and also according to The Secret Betting Club should be given a very wide berth. Juggernaut berth.

    im a member of both and I cant find them mentioned???

  24. Simon says:

    I’m staggered that there are people posting here who think laying at 16/1 is the quick road to the poor house. I urge you all to re-read Matt and Karen’s post before spending any more of your hard-earned on wagering.

    The trick is (of course) to identify the back and lay opportunities when the rest of the market has over or undervalued them — irrespective of price.

    It is the failure to do this that leads to the poor house – not laying horses at 16/1. If you can pick horses to lay at 16/1 but you think are actually 20/1 shots (and perform as such) you will make money. If you lay 2/1 shots that perform like evens then you will lose money. Simple as that.

    Simply using Adrian Massey’s site easily brings up some stats across all races — backing all horses at 66/1 on at SP (and up to 1000 on Betfair) would see a strike rate of 98.3%. Not enough to make a profit laying with the 5% commission Betfair takes admittedly.

    But guess what? Backing all horses priced 2/1 to 11/4 (as an example) has a strike rate of 100.5%. You’ll be in the poor house quicker laying them than the 66/1+ shots.

    Forgive me a quote, but Oscar Wilde said a cynic was: “a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing”. You can add betting forum posters to that definition as well.

    As for not laying at 1.01 — it can be profitable. On 15th June you could have laid Slovakia at that price a couple of seconds before New Zealand equalised against them in the World Cup in the last minute.

    And not backing at 990? — well, there were some happy punters (over £400 wagered ) who backed Crianza just 4 days later at 1000 on Betfair in the 5.20 at Redcar.

    This stuff happens.

  25. terry says:

    The most amazing thing I find is that people actually pay money for this sort of tripe. £60 quid a month. What a joke. It is actually amazing that the glossier the upsell the more it seems people are ready to be taken in.
    Laying is really difficult. I actually supply a lay service to a small group of private clients (at a cost of £11 per month). For this sum you get two years + of genuine results an overall level stake profit of 368 points overall and using a sensible staking plan this is increased to 1060 points profit.
    I am not advertising – it just makes me weep when I see the gullible being sucked in by these shysters.

  26. Alan says:

    In response to your reply to Maneman and I may I say I would lay at 1.01 as any losses would be infinitesimal. However, were I to lay at 11.00 (10/1 SP) an unsuccessful lay would give a loss of 10 points. A successful lay at 11.00 would give a profit of 0.95 points. To recover the loss (if using the same stake) would take 11 consecutive successful lays. Most systems then implement a recovery staking method. You ultimately fall down a big hole. (Re Sods Law)

    As for offsetting the lay with a back bet in-running. Have you tried it? Impossible. No funds available.

    There is no such thing as value for money in gambling. You’re either lucky or unlucky. The luckier ones have a system that works the unlucky ones a pin or no system at all. Jon has a system that works as I believe I have.

    Remember I said mine lost over 12 points on Tuesday, well yesterday it made a profit of 8.59 points. (Profit for month 50.30 points). Laying on its own is not the answer it must be supplemented with a betting strategy. Looked at in a different way – when laying at odds of 3/1, 10/1 or 100/1 your profit is the one (less 5%).

    By the way I am not the Alan who heads this list of responses.

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