Edge Your Bets – Day 3

Edge Your Bets

Good morning all,

Here are the selections for Friday 3rd August 2012:

 

Track

Time

Top rated

Price

Goodwood

310

Fulbright

9

Goodwood

525

Sandfrankskipsgo

10

Thirsk

255

It´s A Mans World

15

Thirsk

405

Rosie´s Lady

13

Thirsk

515

Ansells Pride

9

Bath

635

Zuzu Angel

12

Bath

740

Handles For Forks

13

Bath

840

Spic ´n Span

7.5

Newmarket

550

Chapter And Verse

8

Newmarket

730

Your first 30 days for just £1

Mr David

9

Newmarket

800

Kaiser Wilhelm

6.5

Musselburgh

720

Call Of Duty

6

Musselburgh

750

Chookie Avon

8

Musselburgh

820

Barney McGrew

7

Musselburgh

850

Miss Ella Jade

8

 

Results for 03/08/2012      

Bets

Winners

Returns

P/L

 

15

3

33

18

   
           
Cumulative results:      

Bets

Winners

Return

P/L

SR

ROI

33

3

33

0

9.09%

0.00%

A  much better performance today with 3 winners and 4 seconds.  At advised prices of 15, 9 and 9 the daily profit was 18 points which puts us right back to square one after 3 days.
 

 

15 replies
  1. MikeA says:

    I put my bets on after posting this morning and managed to get all the prices advised, including a few at slightly better odds, so will leave prices as they are for today. I realise the results for the first two days have not been good, and if you were unlucky enough to watch you will know that you didn’t get a run for your money on most if not all of them. However, if you are following my advised bank of 200 then you would have used just 9% of it – that’s what it’s for! Results will turn around, this is very early days I just wish I could have given people a good start – I have the luxury of 280 points in the bag which of course no-one else has. Good luck with whatever you are backing today!

    • Chris Worrall says:

      Mike,

      Discipline and bank management are the key here. You suggested a 200pt bank, so a loss of 18pts shouldn’t be causing any concerns just yet, mate.
      People just get a bit twitchy when losing runs appear! 😀

      Chris

      • MikeA says:

        Thanks Chris. I’ve not had any negative comments from anyone (yet), which is a testament to the people that use this site, it’s me that’s getting twitchy waiting for my first “live” winner!
        Mike

        • Chris Worrall says:

          We like to think that our subscribers are a bit more savvy than some other sites I won’t mention! 😀

    • MikeA says:

      Thanks Scott, hope you are right and that there are enough of them left to enjoy it! 🙂

  2. Graham says:

    Only looked at edge your bets today, been through the previous 2 days and bad runs are something we all have to put up with. first one has gone in today though so good luck for the rest, I am sure everything will be fine.

    • MikeA says:

      Thanks Graham, second one in now so I can breathe a bit easier. You are completely right but it is a leap of faith for anyone following. Several friends and family putting on their quids and were starting to get restless.

    • MikeA says:

      Ha ha, thanks Stuart. An overall profit by the end of the day would be nice, but at least we have left the stalls at last!

    • MikeA says:

      Hi Geoff, good question and one that I will get back to you on in more detail tomorrow after I have posted the selections for the day. I probably wouldn’t make much sense at this time of night I’m afraid.

    • MikeA says:

      Good morning, Geoff. Before responding to your question about the price cap, I just want to clarify that my system is not at all backfitted, and since it requires me to go through the racecards each morning and get the required data that is not available (to me, at least) afterwards then it is not possible to backfit. I’ll leave it to someone more capable than me to give a description of what backfitting is if anyone wants to know.

      What I think you are asking, and correct me if I’m wrong, is if I use past results to tinker with the price range to make the results better. The answer is yes and no. Over 8 months of live betting and recording I have found that I can reduce the number of bets by about 40% but keep exactly the same profit by leaving out everything priced below 5/1. Specifically you asked about the 20/1 cap, and this is a bit less clear. For a couple of months I did back all my selections including the big priced ones. I didn’t get a winner above 20/1 and it was hurting my profits. In the long run I could have continued backing the big priced selections and still made a profit, but I took the decision to put a cap on it. In February the system threw up a 100/1 winner, Tayarat, and I wasn’t on it. So I’m sure the system could still be profitable for the bigger prices, but I haven’t the patience to test it out.

      For the purpose of this trial the big priced selections would have the potential to skew the figures over just 2 months. A glut of big priced winners would make the system appear more profitable than it actually is, and conversely a worse than expected number of winners would make it appear less profitable than it is. You have given me food for thought though and I will record the bigger prices and see what the results are over a longer term.

      Hope this long winded explanation helps.
      Mike

  3. Terry says:

    I like what you are doing and I understand your apprehensions about wanting to get off to a good start for the public, really pleased with today’s results and anticipate more success. Well done!
    Terry

    • MikeA says:

      Thanks Terry, it was much better today. This is pretty much how it is: good days, bad days, indifferent days – the important thing is that overall it is profitable and that’s what I’m aiming for with this trial.

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