It's a timeless truism, dear reader, that even bad races have a winner. And it was something I read the other day that got me thinking about this.
Every time I go to the States (which, very luckily for me, is once a year at least), I buy racing books. I can't help it. I buy (or get review copies) of racing systems, and I buy racing books. I consider them part of my education, and I pretty much always get something from them.
Well, this book I've started reading now is called Smart Choices, and it was written way back in the early eighties by a chap called Craig Victor (great name!). One of the things he talks about is how in the States, the same as everywhere else, the most money is wagered on the best class races. He goes on to say that the most money in those races is wagered on the favourite, naturally enough.
But... this is perverse, because the favourite in the top class races returns LESS of your money than the favourite in lower class races.
In fact, Group race favourites won 238 from 735 starts over the last five years here in Blighty, returning a loss of Â£42.98 to Â£1 stake (-5.85%).
Selling race favourites won 419 from 1286 races, returning a PROFIT of Â£25.57 to Â£1 stake (+1.99%).
Bad races, easy winners. If, on the basis of simply selecting selling race favourites, you'd have made a profit over the last five years, it should be quite easy to refine that further. And it is...
In turf races only, backing four year old or older horses that started favourite over the last five years, you'd have seen the following:
104 winners from 267 starters (38.95% win rate)
Â£107.72 PROFIT for Â£1 level stake (40.34%)
There are a couple of likely qualifiers today:
Favourite in 7.10 Leicester (could be either El Dececy or Sign of the Cross)
3.20 Musselburgh - Lucayan Dancer
Even if these both lose today, this system is definitely one to keep in mind. It's easy enough to remember, and it's made a profit in each of the last five seasons:
YEARÂ WINS RUNS STRIKE%Â Â Â Â LSPÂ Â Â Â LSP%
2004Â Â Â Â Â 14Â Â Â Â Â 47Â Â Â 29.79Â Â Â Â Â Â 10.71Â Â Â 22.79
2005Â Â Â Â Â 19Â Â Â Â Â 47Â Â Â 40.43Â Â Â Â Â Â 28.71Â Â Â 61.09
2006Â Â Â Â Â 18Â Â Â Â Â 50Â Â Â 36.00Â Â Â Â Â Â 16.85Â Â Â 33.70
2007Â Â Â Â Â 18Â Â Â Â Â 51Â Â Â 35.29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.73Â Â Â 15.16
2008Â Â Â Â Â 35Â Â Â Â Â 72Â Â Â 48.61Â Â Â Â Â Â 43.72Â Â Â 60.72
TotalÂ Â Â 104Â Â 267Â Â Â 38.95Â Â Â Â 107.72Â Â Â 40.34
That's all for today.