February Trainer To Follow

V for Victor: Dartnall's a man to follow in February

V for Victor: Dartnall's a man to follow in February

In a packed programme tonight, as the pair of Ronnies used to say, we've got a trainer from Devon who is well worth keeping on the right side; two horses in whom I have a personal interest running today; and, a quick update on the questions I asked you earlier in the week.

So to business. I've been 'mucking around' with some settings in the Stat Attack feature in HorseRaceBase.com (the brilliant site I told you about a few weeks back), and each day it gives me a report for my criteria.

Essentially I'm always on the lookout for hot trainers (remember that TrainerTrackStats was my invention way back when, before Gavin took it on so excellently, and I'm still a trainer stats fiend!). And the chap I want to talk to you about today is one of those wonderful creatures who have recorded a level stakes profit in recent years.

In layman's terms, if you'd backed all of his horses since the start of 2007, you'd be in front. Nice work. So, drumroll please, and step forward, Mr. Victor Dartnall.

He's in great form at the moment which is what highlighted him to me today. But let's break down his overall performance to draw on a few sub-trends in his profile.

Firstly, January and February have always been strong months for our Vic. In fact, during the period 2007 to now, he's shown a 150% return at SP. To Betfair odds, that translates to an eye-watering 231.9%.

Now before you go mortgaging your house/spouse/mouse to lump on, note that Vic hasn't made a profit in every year, though in the lean years, there was only a slight loss.

What about race types? Does Mr D focus on any specific types of race or is he a dab hand at one distance range over all others?

'Yes' is the unsurprising and short answer. In races of 2m5f or less (including flat races), Victor Dartnall has the following figures to his name since the start of 2007:

73 wins from 359 bets for a level stakes profit of 65.86 points at bookies' starting price. Betfair punters would have been swimming in gravy to the tune of a whopping 203.73 points profit. Yikes!

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In class 4 races or lower (i.e. Class 4, 5, 6, or 7) at the distances above, Dartnall's stats are even hotter:

61 wins from 282 bets (21.6% strike rate) for a profit of 83.97 points. That's £839.70 for tenner flat bets. At Betfair odds, we woulda coulda shoulda bagged 214.08 points, or £2,140.80 for those self same tenners. Yikes again.

So there you have it. It's a Victor-y D for Mr Dartnall, notably when he runs his nags in races at 2m5f or less and in Class 4 - 7. He's got one such beastie today, in the bumper at 4.50 Wincanton. Flyit Flora is the name of the dame, and she's a 20/1 shot, so don't expect too much too soon. But note that Victor is 10 wins from 52 starters in bumpers, but 0 from 3 at Wincanton in bumpers.

Obviously, that's a miniscule sample size from which to draw meaningful conclusions, but his overall record at the track suggests we should probably have an interest only, and follow Victor more rigidly from tomorrow...

********

Today's racing holds interest for me personally, and also for some fellow Geegeez Racing Club members who were given first refusal on shares in another Feilden stable inmate, Sail Home. I also have a bit of another horse running tonight at Wolverhampton.

Sail Home runs in the 3.00 Southwell this afternoon, and she's highly likely to go off favourite. In what looks a three horse race, despite there being six contestants, 'Sally' will probably have most to fear from Eseej and Trachonitis (a rugged region to the east of Jordan,  mentioned in the bible, apparently).

Sail Home won last time over course and distance, and has improved since then. She'll need to have because on that occasion she beat a reasonable bumper horse running over far too short a trip, and three trees.

Eseej is more exposed (considerably) but consistent here at Southwell where he's won three times over the distance, and off higher handicap marks than he races from today. His wins have all come in smallish fields as well.

Trachonitis is a bit harder to fancy, which probably explains why he's twice the price of the other two, but a line through Dontpaytheferryman gives him a good chance with Eseej.

The other trio look regressive (Thundering Home and Amazing Blue Sky) or just plain not good enough (Just Zak).

I'll be cheering from home today, but I know most of the other syndicate members are there this afternoon, so good luck chaps!

Later this evening, I'll be cheering the seasonal (and my ownership) debut of my first / only horse interest away from the Feilden yard, when Smarties Party steps out at Dunstall Park. It's a two miler at 7.00, and she's been going nicely at home. Although she might need the run tonight, there's little in the field of nine aside from the hattrick-seeking Delorain and the seconditis machine, Rosewood Lad.

As such, more in hope than any great expectations, I'll be betting her for a place and looking for some promise prior to her National Hunt bow in a few weeks time.

********

And finally, to both top and tail with Ronnies references, thank you very much to the 1,346 of you who responded to my quick survey. You never cease to amaze me with your generosity when it comes to your time, and your answers quite simply make the difference between doing something and not doing it.

When I was pondering a forum here on Geegeez, you told me emphatically no. I was relieved to hear that, and heeded your advice.

This time I was asking about live odds comparison, and you have suggested that many of you would find the convenience of that facility here on Geegeez a definite benefit. So, I'll be making sure that happens in the not too distant future, ideally in time for Cheltenham as it will be an extremely useful resource when bookies are falling over each other to do us favours... (It only happens once a year, so we need to be ready to make the best of it!).

And finally, finally, all these references to Messrs. Corbett and Barker have made me nostalgic, so - it being Thursday and all - how about a return of another old friend, in the guise of Thursday Fun? Here's the Ron's doing what they do best, making the news up with classic contrivance!

Best,

Matt

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12 replies
  1. Avatar
    chas says:

    good luck tonight with smarties and i do fancy sail home today when is khaajaaly running next chas

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chas

      Not sure about Khajaaly. Possibly in three weeks time. Obviously, that information is primarily for those who paid up to be in the syndicate. Hope you understand. 😉

      Matt

  2. Avatar
    Jay says:

    I like your “Flag@ re: Victor Dartnall,I get the Racing and Football Outlook every Tuesday,in which they have a page devoted to Trainers who are “in form” or HOT,and V. Dartnall was in last week’s,and is again this week.I usually base my selections on what is said in that esteemed publication and with other snippets gleaned from other sources such as your’s,keep up the good work Matt!

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Jay – I hadn’t noticed that. Don’t have time to read the weekly publications alas. Glad we’re in agreement though, and hopefully he’ll keep having a few more winners in the next couple of weeks.

      Matt

  3. Avatar
    mr. john murray says:

    hi matt,
    i thank you once more. i do know the information you post, is available to everyone
    but as you know of my health problems, your blogs are always informative to me.
    thanks again, and as usual, best of luck to you and of coarse to your other horse owners
    in geegeez.
    john

  4. Avatar
    Tonyb says:

    Absolutely brilliant clip from the 2 Ronnies.

    Best of luck with the horses thiss afternoon and keep up your good work which is very useful.

    Regards

    Tony

  5. Avatar
    Martyn says:

    They don’t make ’em like that any more? LOL. Wonder if he’s founds his fork handles yet? LOL

  6. Avatar
    Matt Bisogno says:

    Disastrous day today, with Sail Home being heavily (HEAVILY!!!) backed before plodding home for third – looks like she didn’t stay with the quicker pace. Probably drop her back in trip now.

    Then Smarties Party tonight was desperate for the run, and was a very tired horse.

    Final nail in the coffin was when Victor Dartnall’s bumper horse fell on the home turn, when going well…. in a FLAT race!

    Some days it’s just not going to happen. Today was one of those, alas. Onwards and downwards.

    Matt

  7. Avatar
    Eamon says:

    Hi Matt,

    If you do an odds comparison site, I personally would like to see the odds either in decimels or an option to convert the odds to decimels (if that’s possible).

    Often when placing football bets and on oddschecker a number of bookmakers have funny odds nowadays like Bwin for example, 11/17 for Arsenal to bt Newcastle. I don’t know how often I’ve sat there with my calculator working out if it’s better or worse than 4/6 or 3/5.

    Just a personal preference and something that would sway me, for one, away from good ol’ oddschecker.

    Cheers,

    Eamon

    PS. Finding Horseracebase very good for the micro systems – it’s fantastic the way it emails your qualifying selections to you. I’ll be adding the Darnell one this evening. You mention Jan & Feb are good but is it equally OK to run for all the other months of the year or even the traditional NH season?

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Eamon

      Thanks for the comments. I can confirm that there will be decimal odds available at the click of a button (and the button is right there to be clicked!). Also, I can tell you that Ladbrokes ARE represented on the platform, even though they’ve left oddschecker, so in fact it’s a more complete odds comparison tool than that one.

      I can’t remember being this excited about an addition to Geegeez since…. well, ever. More news soon.

      Matt

      p.s. regarding Dartnall’s track record, you can research that yourself using the Query tool in the systems builder having first selected Dartnall from the trainer menu.

  8. Avatar
    Garry . lufc. says:

    HI matt,
    garry here, just want to ask why a forum wouldn’t be good, to me it would, because when you have thousands of members who want to interact and have a good conversation, especially about horse racing, and other sports IE football, but mainly the gee gee’s,it can only be good for the site surely, i for one would think getting people to talk about their passion would be a good thing.

    All the best Garry. lufc.

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