Form Profiling: Five to Follow in 2020

STOP PRESS

Thank you very much for your contributions to this little horse profiling experiment. I've aggregated them all in a pdf report at the end of the article.

I've also created a page where the horses will be highlighted if they're running (you'll still need to check whether they satisfy the profile criteria).

This is version 1.0 and, if there are further submissions between now and the end of the week, I'll update the report to include them.

For now, though, if you've read this article already, please navigate to the bottom to download the report and find the page link.

If you've not yet read the piece, start here!

Matt

***

When racing resumes there will be a focus, understandably, on two-year-olds, first season sires, trainers who perform well with horses off a layoff, and of course the Classic generation. Plenty of what happens in those spaces will be less predictable than normal due to the coronavirus-enforced later start. This article eschews those staples of the current content vista in favour of another hardy perennial, a horses to follow list.

Back yon - about eight or nine years ago, I think - I worked with a great guy called David Peat, who was mad about horse profiles. He had written books on the subject, he had a subscription service dedicated to the subject, and he and I ended up co-producing a product/service around the idea.

The concept was, and still is, simple: where everyone else is looking at what's new during spring time, horse profiling requires a body of work to exist in the form book already. Its currency is exposed horses, those who have run scores of times and have shown an affinity for a specific set of circumstances.

As well as highlighting five such horses which might pay their way in 2020, I'll also attempt to show how easy it is to create these for yourself. There are scores of these horses to find and, as an extra bonus, I'll include some further races - chock full of profile types - that I've yet to research: perhaps some of the more community-spirited readers will take up my challenge to add a comment with their findings for a given horse off the list. Right, let's get to it...

Dapper Man

Age: 6
Trainer: Roger Fell
Career record: 10/52
Turf Record: 9/40
Turf Handicap Record: 9/37
Highest winning OR: 80
Current OR: 82
Win Profile:

10/10 6-12 runners

10/10 April to July

9/10 5f (all of last nine)

9/10 blinkers (other win in cheekpieces, 0/24 no headgear)

8/10 Good to Firm

Led in all of last six wins (3 of remaining 4 when racing prominently)

Notes

A great example to begin with, Dapper Man is a five furlong speedball. He likes to get out and stay out, and he's hard to catch when he does. Trainer Roger Fell has managed the gelding's form cycles brilliantly in the last two seasons: in 2018, Dapper Man won five times - beginning off a mark of 60 before achieving a high of 86 (top winning rating was 76); and in 2019, he won four times on the spin from marks between 72 and 80.

What is noteworthy is that in between those early summer winning sprees, Fell had got Dapper Man's mark back down from 86 to 72. After his final win last year, he was rated 89 and is now on 82. I suspect his trainer will want a few more pounds back before striking again, so expect to see the blinkers left off and a couple more runs on slower ground if he can. Once this lad gets back to around 75 he'll be dangerous.

Combining optimal conditions - handicaps of 12 or fewer runners, April to July, 5f, good to firm, and blinkers - Dapper Man is 7 from 10, 2 further places, and +28.41 at starting price. I'd be wary of the April to July element this term given the break in racing, but the other components look important.

*

Waarif

Age: 7
Trainer: David O'Meara
Career record: 8/41
Turf Record: 7/32
Turf Handicap Record: 7/30
Highest winning OR: 96
Current OR: 97
Win Profile:

8/8 Class 2-4

8/8 turning tracks (0/9 on straight tracks, though has run well)

7/8 1 mile

6/8 Good or Good to Firm (has also won on polytrack and heavy)

Last five wins off rating between 92 and 96

Notes:

Bought from Ireland after a Dundalk maiden win in October 2016, it was a year before Waarif made his debut for David O'Meara and not until June 2018 - 13 starts later - that he got off the mark for his new trainer. It was worth the wait, however, as victory came in the Carlisle Bell, a valuable handicap at the Cumbrian track. That seemingly opened the floodgates as he won a further three of his next five starts to end 2018 with four victories and a mark of 100.

2019 began in the Lincoln off that lofty perch but it wasn't until he'd dropped to 92 that he scored again, on his fifth run of the season. That was a steadily run ten furlong contest which probably rode more like a mile, and was his only non-mile victory. Further scores from marks of 96 and 95 followed. Although it may be nothing more than coincidence, Waarif has yet to win for O'Meara prior to his fifth start of the season.

*

Redarna

Age: 6
Trainer: Dianne Sayer
Career record: 8/26
Turf Record: 8/24
Turf Handicap Record: 8/23
Highest winning OR: 84
Current OR: 90
Win Profile:

8/8 7f to a mile (6 x 7f, 2 x 1m)

7/8 Ayr or Carlisle (4 x Ayr, 3 x Carlisle)

5/8 Good to Soft (also won once each on on Good, Soft, and Good to Firm)

Your first 30 days for just £1

4/8 Cheekpieces (plus 2 further places)

Notes:

It's difficult to know whether this steadily progressive handicapper needs to drop a little in the weights. The gelding ran arguably his best race when second in a decent Ayr handicap last September, his final start of 2019. That moved him to a perch six pounds north of his highest winning mark but he was competitive off 88 that day.

In any case, Redarna has won second or third time off a layoff the past three seasons so it could be that his mark will drop at least a pound for his 2020 bow.

Seven furlongs ideally, or a mile, on the soft side of good; and both Ayr and Carlisle have been happy hunting grounds. I'm not convinced that cheekpieces are necessary though he's certainly run well in them (and previously without them).

*

De Vegas Kid

Age: 6
Trainer: Tony Carroll
Career record: 8/39
Turf Record: 7/24
Turf Handicap Record: 7/19
Highest winning OR: 79
Current OR: 82
Win Profile:

7/7 turf wins on Good or Good to Firm (also won on Wolverhampton's tapeta track)

5/7 turf wins when apprentice ridden

5/7 turf wins on left-handed tracks (also won left-handed at Wolverhampton)

4 of last 5 wins at Brighton (overall Brighton record: 4/7)

3/6 off 60+ day layoff

Notes:

Racehorses are funny creatures. Take De Vegas Kid: he was 0 from 21 going into a very modest seven furlong handicap in February 2018 off a basement mark of 51. Two years and eight wins later and he's now rated in the low 80's!

That confidence-boosting victory at Wolverhampton was his only all-weather win. Since then he's won seven times on the turf, including four at Brighton. There might be something about seaside air for De Vegas Kid, as he's also won at Goodwood and Yarmouth. His hold up style seems ideally suited to apprentices, who don't need to do much until the last part of a race, and he does seem especially effective on left-handed tracks (though the Brighton factor heavily influences that angle).

Four runs on the all-weather since his last Brighton triumph have reduced his rating from 85 to 82 but he may need to drop a few more before he's primed again. Sussex in late summer may again be a happy hunting ground.

*

Royal Brave

Age: 9
Trainer: Rebecca Bastiman
Career record: 11/77
Turf Record: 10/62
Turf Handicap Record: 10/57
Highest winning OR: 88
Current OR: 74
Win Profile:

10/11 Good or Good to Firm ground (also won on Newcastle's tapeta)

9/11 5f

9/11 ridden by PJ McDonald, Martin Dwyer or Danny Tudhope

6/11 Class 4

5/11 Musselburgh

Notes:

A slightly more left field entry to close, Royal Brave won none of his eleven starts last year and was only sixth of eight on his 2020 debut in early March. If that's the bad news, the good news is that he's now rated a stone below his last winning mark. Moreover, he has run almost exclusively on either all-weather (1/15 lifetime) or softer than good (0/10 lifetime) in that barren spell.

In fact, it is arguable that he only got his conditions twice last season, both at Musselburgh: in the Scottish Sprint Cup, where he was beaten six lengths off a mark of 91; and in a small field Class 3 handicap where he was doing his best work at the finish.

All of his last six wins have come from a rating higher than his current figure which makes Royal Brave dangerously well-handicapped when he gets fast ground and a bit of pace to run at over Musselburgh's five furlong piste.

And those are my five for the tracker.

****

How to Find Profile Horses

It's an inexact science but in general terms what I am looking for are horses with a good amount of form to dissect, and which have shown a ready preference for a certain setup. All horses have an ability ceiling and tend to run in 'form cycles' up to that ceiling, then back down the weights, then up again. Spotting these cycles isn't difficult if you're looking for them; it's impossible if you're not!

Here's how to find profile horses...

Step 1: Get a list of possibles

There are a few ways to do this. One is to use Query Tool, though caution is advised because the 'sort by horse' function is likely to crash your browser as it tries to format a table with many thousand rows in it. To get around this:

- Select 'Last 2 Years'
- Select 'UK' (or 'Ireland' but not both)
- Select 'Flat Turf' (or whichever race code you want to investigate)
- Select age '5 to 7' (i.e. a horse age range appropriate for exposed form in your chosen discipline)
- Select 'Handicap' (or whatever, handicaps are best for this type of profiling)

That has brought back 14,272 qualifiers which is probably still too many.

We can whittle that down by choosing a distance range. Let's try 5f to 6f.

My sample is now 4,717 which is workable. So I'll be profiling sprint handicappers here, but I could have chosen seven-furlong specialists, milers, stayers or whatever.

Next I'll click the 'group by' radio button against 'Horse', and then sort by 'Wins'.

And bingo, I have a list of horses to potentially profile:

 

A second way is to start with a big field race you know will have been contested by numerous exposed handicappers. The Scottish Sprint Cup is a good example. (If you can't find a race, you can again use QT, by choosing e.g. 16+ runners, Class 3 or above, handicap).

Here is the result of the Scottish Sprint Cup with an instant list of 16 horses to dig into:

 

Step 2: Shortlist Horses to Profile

We now have a list of horses with which to work, but not all of them will have a consistent profile; and not all of them will have won enough races to demonstrate a profile. I look for at least half a dozen wins in a horse's career from which to try to discern patterns. It hopefully goes without saying that we're dealing with very small sample sizes here and all sorts of overlapping factors, so atom-splitters need not apply: this is broad brush stuff, and we will still need to apply judgement to our profile horses when they're entered in the future.

Let's have a look at Major Valentine and Highly Sprung, the top pair on our QT list.

Major Valentine has a few clear patterns, for example, 12 of his 14 career wins have been when ridden by apprentice jockeys. But he has a common problem when the most recent period has been used for search purposes: he is probably too high in the handicap. Having started 2019 off a mark of 64 he went on to win five races for jockey Kate Leahy and trainer John O'Shea. In his final 2019 start, he raced off a rating of 92. We could add Major Valentine to a tracker with his preferences appended, but the likelihood is he'll find winning difficult this year until he's dropped back down the weights.

A good way around this is to use a search period of, say, 2017 and 2018 (i.e. excluding the most recent year). That will bring back a group of multiple winners which may or may not have come down the handicap since their winning spree. From my five to follow list above, Royal Brave was found in this way.

Back to Highly Sprung, a son of Zebedee (of course) who is now seven. Looking at his Full Form page allows us to review his overall form by various subsets. The first thing to immediately stand out is that he is 0 from 12 on all-weather versus a very solid 10 from 50 on turf.

Checking the WINS filter allows us to see only the ten races Highly Sprung won, and to look for commonalities therein:

We can see he won five times for Mark Johnston before moving to Les Eyre who has also eked a quintet of victories from the horse. What else can we see?

All ten wins were over six furlongs. Eight of the ten were on good to firm ground, though not his most recent pair. Having won off as high as 83 (see the OR column) for Mark Johnston, he is now rated 81; that's a feasible mark but not a bargain: he might need to drop a few more.

Seven of his ten wins have been for either Joe Fanning or Silvestre de Sousa, and both jockeys have won on him for both of the horse's trainers. Six of his ten wins have come at Pontefract, from 15 starts at the track.

And as easily as that we now have a profile for Highly Sprung:

- 6f (he's 0/18, just three places, at other trips)
- ideally Good to Firm ground (though recent wins mean this is not a deal breaker)
- Extra point if racing at Ponte
- Extra point if ridden by Joe F or SdS

 

Step 3: Add to Tracker

Add your horse and all relevant notes to your Tracker. Users of Geegeez Gold tracker get an email the day before racing to alert them of the next day's runners (horses, trainers, jockeys, sires), so you should never miss a winner.

 

**

A challenge?

It's lockdown, there is still no racing, and we all have a bit of time on our hands. So what about a challenge? I'd like you to share your profile horses in the comments below. Add a few details like the ones above - I've put an example in the comments below for you to use as a template - for a horse you've profiled.

Wouldn't it be awesome if collectively we could pull together a list of 20 or more horses and their optimal conditions? Hint: do try a different race distance and/or code. Below are links to the results of some of the big field handicaps at various distances from last summer, which might help:

Date Time Course Horse Jockey Trainer Runners
11/05/2019 16:00 Ascot Remarkable Adam Kirby D O'Meara 26
26/05/2019 14:20 Curragh Teddy Boy Gavin Ryan E Lynam 26
18/06/2019 17:00 Ascot Mixboy Paul Mulrennan K Dalgleish 19
18/06/2019 17:00 Ascot Ulster Edward Greatrex A Watson 19
22/08/2019 15:00 York Crownthorpe Sean Davis R Fahey 18
24/08/2019 15:40 York Dramatic Queen Daniel Tudhope W Haggas 22
24/08/2019 15:40 York Making Miracles Jason Hart M Johnston 22
07/09/2019 15:35 Haydock Park Melting Dew Ryan Moore Sir M Stoute 16
04/05/2019 16:15 Thirsk Hayadh Lewis Edmunds R Bastiman 16
06/05/2019 17:50 Curragh Red Tea Donnacha O'Brien J O'Brien 27
11/05/2019 16:00 Ascot Cape Byron Andrea Atzeni R Varian 26
15/05/2019 13:50 York First Eleven Frankie Dettori J Gosden 18
15/05/2019 14:25 York Soldier's Minute Joe Fanning K Dalgleish 21
16/05/2019 13:50 York Copper Knight David Allan T Easterby 21
25/05/2019 15:45 York Duke Of Firenze Phil Dennis D Griffiths 19
25/05/2019 16:45 Curragh Insignia Of Rank Gary Carroll J G Murphy 18
26/05/2019 14:20 Curragh Baby Power Leigh Roche G Caldwell 26
01/06/2019 15:45 Epsom Downs Ornate Phil Dennis D Griffiths 19
15/06/2019 14:25 York Firmament James Doyle D O'Meara 20
18/06/2019 17:00 Ascot The Grand Visir Richard Kingscote I Williams 19
19/06/2019 17:00 Ascot Afaak Jim Crowley C Hills 28
21/06/2019 17:35 Ascot Baghdad Ryan Moore M Johnston 19
22/06/2019 17:00 Ascot Cape Byron Andrea Atzeni R Varian 26
27/06/2019 19:45 Curragh El Astronaute Jason Hart J J Quinn 16
29/06/2019 13:45 Curragh Buffer Zone Colin Keane G Lyons 16
29/06/2019 14:45 York Gulliver Jason Hart D O'Meara 18
29/06/2019 17:05 York Nibras Again Joshua Moore P Midgley 19
06/07/2019 15:15 Haydock Park Kelly's Dino Ben Curtis K Burke 17
12/07/2019 15:00 Newmarket King's Advice Joe Fanning M Johnston 17
13/07/2019 13:45 Ascot Tis Marvellous Adam Kirby Clive Cox 19
13/07/2019 15:30 Newmarket Vale Of Kent Frankie Dettori M Johnston 17
13/07/2019 15:50 York Pivoine Rob Hornby A Balding 21
20/07/2019 14:25 Newbury Withhold Jason Watson R Charlton 16
20/07/2019 15:25 Curragh Verhoyen Rory Cleary M Grassick 19
27/07/2019 15:00 Ascot Raising Sand Nicola Currie J Osborne 23
29/07/2019 19:40 Galway Great White Shark Miss J Townend W Mullins 20
29/07/2019 19:50 Windsor Show Stealer Silvestre De Sousa Rae Guest 16
30/07/2019 13:50 Goodwood Fayez Daniel Tudhope D O'Meara 16
30/07/2019 19:40 Galway Saltonstall Colin Keane A McGuinness 18
31/07/2019 13:50 Goodwood Timoshenko Luke Morris Sir M Prescott 19
01/08/2019 15:10 Galway Waitingfortheday Donnacha O'Brien J O'Brien 18
03/08/2019 13:50 Goodwood Poyle Vinnie James Sullivan Mrs R Carr 23
03/08/2019 17:25 Goodwood Gifts Of Gold Cieren Fallon S Bin Suroor 17
04/08/2019 15:55 Galway Laughifuwant Seamie Heffernan G Keane 16
17/08/2019 14:05 Ripon Growl Tony Hamilton R Fahey 19
17/08/2019 15:15 Ripon Dakota Gold Connor Beasley M Dods 17
21/08/2019 13:55 York Dakota Gold Connor Beasley M Dods 22
21/08/2019 16:15 York Eddystone Rock James Doyle John Best 17
22/08/2019 15:00 York What's The Story Joe Fanning K Dalgleish 18
22/08/2019 16:50 York Excellent Times Phil Dennis T Easterby 19
23/08/2019 13:55 York Tamreer Ben Curtis R G Fell 16
24/08/2019 15:40 York Mustajeer Colin Keane G Lyons 22
30/08/2019 15:40 Thirsk Bielsa Kevin Stott K A Ryan 16
30/08/2019 18:50 Curragh Jassaar Andrew Slattery D Weld 25
07/09/2019 14:45 Ascot Salute The Soldier Adam Kirby Clive Cox 16
07/09/2019 15:35 Haydock Park Time To Study Cieren Fallon I Williams 16
12/09/2019 16:20 Doncaster Saluti Georgia Cox P Midgley 16
15/09/2019 13:20 Curragh Buffer Zone Colin Keane G Lyons 24
15/09/2019 18:00 Curragh One Cool Poet Billy Lee M Smith 16
20/09/2019 15:45 Ayr Music Society Paul Mulrennan T Easterby 24
21/09/2019 14:40 Ayr Golden Apollo David Allan T Easterby 24
28/09/2019 14:35 Curragh Make A Challenge Joe Doyle D Hogan 20
02/10/2019 15:25 Nottingham Fantasy Keeper A Villiers M Appleby 17
05/10/2019 15:10 Ascot Kynren Ben Curtis T D Barron 17
12/10/2019 15:50 York Gulliver Jason Hart D O'Meara 22
12/10/2019 16:10 Newmarket Stratum Jason Watson W Mullins 30
13/10/2019 16:25 Curragh Royal Illusion J M Sheridan W Mullins 18
19/10/2019 16:40 Ascot Escobar Adam Kirby D O'Meara 20
26/10/2019 16:50 Leopardstown Melburnian N G McCullagh A Martin 17
03/11/2019 15:10 Naas Jukebox Jive Sean Davis G Cromwell 16

 

The Horse Profiles Report (Thanks to you guys)

>>> Download the 48 horse profiles for 2020 here <<<

 

POTENTIAL qualifiers with entries can be found on this page >>>

108 replies
  1. Matt Bisogno
    Matt Bisogno says:

    As promised, here is an example. Copy and paste this into the comment box and edit the details (obviously use whichever win profile elements apply to your horse(s), which might be different from the ones I’ve used here).

    Good luck!
    Matt

    De Vegas Kid
    Age: 6
    Trainer: Tony Carroll
    Career record: 8/39
    Turf Record: 7/24
    Turf Handicap Record: 7/19
    Highest winning OR: 79
    Current OR: 82
    Win Profile:
    7/7 turf wins on Good or Good to Firm (also won on Wolverhampton’s tapeta track)
    5/7 turf wins when apprentice ridden
    5/7 turf wins on left-handed tracks (also won left-handed at Wolverhampton)
    4 of last 5 wins at Brighton (overall Brighton record: 4/7
    3/6 off 60+ day layoff

    Reply
  2. Rotund legend
    Rotund legend says:

    An excellent article and certainly something for others to have a go at.

    What I do when looking at a race on Geegeez is to look at a horse and see how many times it has won and then look at all its wins to see how and when and on what ground and distance etc it had done so. So what you pick up on as part of the article. I only really worry about the jockey when considering if the horse was ridden by a top jockey or a stable jockey or apprentice. An obvious example would be when Frankie Dettori rides etc.
    I am a strong believer that the vast majority of horses need a set of conditions to win races, you just have to figure out what they are. A profiling approach will certainly help with that. I do put up eye catcher horses on a tipping site and they usually have preferences for certain class races or distance etc.

    Regards Martin

    Reply
  3. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Oh this is us
    age 7
    trainer R Hannon
    career record 12/50
    flat turf 9/39
    all weather 3/11
    highest winning or 113
    current or 106
    when returning to the track within 10 days on turf 5/7
    good ground or better 9/9
    7f 8f all wins have come at these distances including aw
    3 wins and a 1/4 length 2nd in a listed race when running at Chester

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Great stuff, John, thanks for sharing.

      Has a nice enough mark just now, then, when faced with optimal conditions again.

      Matt

      Reply
  4. harrycodlife
    harrycodlife says:

    Ziga Boy – Horse Profile | 3m | Good | Doncaster | Class 1/2/3 | 13+ Runners | Cheek Pieces? | Dec/Jan | Win PL 12.5 | A/E 2.16 | IV 3.07 | OR 125 Max

    Reply
  5. harrycodlife
    harrycodlife says:

    Show Palace – Horse Profile: G/S to Heavy – 5f H/Caps – OR 75 or Below – 10/24 +24.72 A/E 2.21

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Love this one, Harry, thanks.
      12/12 at 5f
      11/12 wins on good to soft through to heavy
      10/12 OR 73 or below (also won off 78 and 84) – Current OR 75
      10/12 Class 5 or 6 (also 2 wins in Class 4)

      Reply
  6. Matt Bisogno
    Matt Bisogno says:

    Another one from me – I might do a few more as and when I’m dodging what I actually should be doing!!!

    Nicholas T
    Age: 8
    Trainer: Jim Goldie
    Career record: 7/49
    Turf Record: 7/43
    Turf Handicap Record: 6/42
    Highest winning OR: 93
    Current OR: 97
    Win Profile:
    5/6 turf wins at Ayr (also won at Doncaster)
    6/6 turf wins when held up
    4/13 (6 further places) when running within 10 days of previous start

    Reply
  7. harrycodlife
    harrycodlife says:

    Crosse Fire – 29/4/2020: Horse Profile: AW | Southwell | 5/7f | Class 3/4/5 | Highest Win OR 85 | Lowest Win OR 63 | Current OR 80 | 2y Win% 22.2% | EW% 50% | Win PL 11.88 | EW PL 16.65 | ROI 66 | A/E 1.87 | IV 2.19

    Reply
  8. nigben
    nigben says:

    Bit of a Quirke
    Age: 6
    Trainer: M Walford
    Career record: 7/43
    Turf Record: 7/36
    Turf Handicap Record: 7/33
    Highest winning OR: 68
    Current OR: 71
    Win Profile:
    6/9 Beverley 10f ( 1x 2nd 2 x unplaced when rated 72 & 69)
    4/7 turf wins when ridden by A Mullen
    7/7 turf wins when led or prominent
    6/7 wins on good and g/firm(Last win on good to soft)
    Worth a look at Beverley when back down to 68 or below.

    Reply
  9. Lindseydobbin
    Lindseydobbin says:

    Great article, I think I’ve been doing this without realising for big handicap races. I’ll be sure to take more notice and hopefully find some more good profiles when the racing starts up again. Thanks!

    Reply
  10. TonyMac11
    TonyMac11 says:

    Jabbarockie
    Age: 6
    Trainer: Eric Alston
    Career record: 6/28
    Turf Record: 5/23
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/19
    Highest winning OR: 87
    Current OR: 94

    Win Profile:
    5/5 turf wins at 5f
    5/5 turf wins when leading or racing prominently
    5/5 turf wins when running between 16 and 60 days
    5/5 turf wins on a Flat track (three defeats on a slightly undulating track with two defeats on an undulating surface.
    4/7 turf wins at Haydock or Nottingham (Hit the frame in three of four starts at Thirsk)

    Jabbarockie improved 16lb in the last season. Not disgraced when last seen finishing 12th of 22 beaten 4 1/4L in a Class 2 contest at York in August.
    Holds a 68% win and place strike rate (5 wins/8 places from 19 starts) over 5f on turf.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Excellent work, Tony, thanks. Be interesting to see if he needs to come down the handicap a little. Might just be progressive still from that mark.

      Thanks for sharing,
      Matt

      Reply
  11. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Withhold
    age 6
    trainer R Charlton
    Highest winning OR 113
    Current rating 113
    2 mile + 5/7
    when leading 5/8
    2 wins and a further place after a 250 day + break which is interesting in itself during the current climate.

    Reply
  12. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Barsanti
    age 7
    trainer R Varian
    Highest OR 116
    Todays OR108
    York 2 wins 2 further places from 5
    AW 2/3
    Hcap 2/3
    3 wins and further 4 places 1 mile 4 furlongs
    Notes
    Barsanti has been very highly tried and i feel he may well be tried in a handicap again now which his present mark would give him an outstanding chance especially at 1 mile 4 furlongs

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Two more good shouts, John. I don’t tend to think of 100+ horses as ‘profile-able’ but, as you’ve shown, they absolutely are.

      Nice work!

      Matt

      Reply
      • therams1962
        therams1962 says:

        Hi Matt why did you not think 100+ rates horses would not make good profile horses ? My argument would be the better the horse the more reliable the profile would be ?

        Reply
        • Matt Bisogno
          Matt Bisogno says:

          Hi John

          It’s just a hunch – no evidence to support it – but I prefer exposed handicappers dropping into their right race after a series of over-faced/unsuitable options.

          There’s no reason the same would apply with better horses, except that owners might be more inclined to chase only optimal targets.

          Like I say, it’s just a personal perception.

          Matt

          Reply
  13. peterz59
    peterz59 says:

    Different to the layout above my observations are less stats but more specific and I will explore more on the day. Here’s five that might be interesting. My ratings are RPs and not the official hcps. Take CV into account when looking at the month or time of year.
    Flavious Titus – June/Newmarket 6f GF C2 Won of (104)
    Soffia – June/July Curragh/Naas 5f GF 6f Gd Won of (120) G2
    Only Spoofing – July Bev/Ham (Has won at Ascot) 5f Gf/Gd Won of (92)
    Blue Point – (R.Ascot specialist) 6f GF/GD/GS 5f GD/GF Won of (126) G1
    Union Rose – Bath 5 or 6f GF,GD, GS, S Won of 92 (Now 83) (Also good record at Wolverhampton)

    Reply
  14. harrycodlife
    harrycodlife says:

    Katheefa – Horse Profile: AW | 6f | Class 3/4/5 | HW OR 89 | LW OR 89 | Current OR 93 | 2Y Win% 27.27% | EW% 45.45% | Win PL 54.5 | EW PL | 68.47 | ROI 247.73 | A/E 2.01 | IV 2.31

    Reply
  15. nigben
    nigben says:

    Gabrial the Tiger
    Age: 7
    Trainer: R Fahey
    Career record: 11/54
    Turf Record: 10/43
    Turf Handicap Record: 10/43
    Highest winning OR: 80
    Current OR: 74
    Win Profile:
    9/10 at 7f
    4/7 Muss 7f H’caps
    4/5 Muss Class 5 7f H’caps
    8/10 turf wins when led
    Won on all different types of ground
    Worth a look at Muss 7f class 5 when back down to 72 or below.

    Reply
  16. Matt Bisogno
    Matt Bisogno says:

    Regal Mirage
    Age: 6
    Trainer: T Easterby
    Career record: 8/33
    Turf Record: 8/32
    Turf Handicap Record: 8/30
    Highest winning OR: 74
    Current OR: 75
    Win Profile:
    6/8 when ridden by David Allan
    7/8 at Beverley (2), Pontefract (2) or Hamilton (3) – all uphill finishes (other win at Ayr)
    7/8 when 6/1 or shorter (only longer-priced win was ‘cap debut in 2017)
    Probably needs to drop 2-5lb from current mark

    Reply
  17. Matt Bisogno
    Matt Bisogno says:

    One Boy
    Age: 9
    Trainer: P Midgley
    Career record: 9/78
    Turf Record: 9/75
    Turf Handicap Record: 8/72
    Highest winning OR: 75
    Current OR: 50
    Win Profile:
    9/9 at 5f
    8/8 handicap wins on ground between GOOD and SOFT
    7/8 handicap wins in late season (Aug-Oct, also 1x win in April)

    Had a lot of racing and may just not quite fancy it any more, but back class galore if/when he gets a bit of soft ground. Should be capable of going in this season.

    Reply
  18. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Collide
    Age: 4
    Trainer: H Palmer
    Career record: 4/11
    Turf Record: 3/9
    Turf Handicap Record: 1/5
    Highest winning OR: 96
    Current OR: 98
    Win Profile:
    3/4 on soft or good to soft
    4/5 in class 3 or under
    3/5 at 9&10 furlongs
    Young enough to still progress .I would definitely have a look if dropped to class 3 handicap over 10 furlongs regardless of the OR

    Reply
  19. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Sir Chauvelin
    Age: 8
    Trainer: J Goldie
    Career record: 10/49
    Turf Record: 5/32
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/26
    Highest winning OR: 106 flat 134 hurdles
    Current OR: 101
    Win Profile:
    When going right handed 4 wins and 3 more places from 10 flat runs .4/7 hurdles

    Notes
    Needs a right handed track .Not won for a while on the flat and I would ideally like to see the mark below 100 and a race with decent pace . .Won a class 2 hurdle off 129 1/1/20

    Reply
  20. richard firth
    richard firth says:

    this looks really good if we could get fresh winning type with profile form and trainer quick off mark , the one little problem could be waiting for rating to drop, that needs a bit of judgement , Peterz cross Blue point off your list he’s gone to the breeding sheds lucky devil

    Reply
  21. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Golden Apollo
    Age: 6
    Trainer: T Easterby
    Career record: 5/35
    Turf Record: 5/34
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/30
    Highest winning OR: 95
    Current OR:93
    Win profile
    3/9 10 days or less since last run
    All wins 15 days or less since last run
    Notes
    Typical short rest pattern horse. Still looks a little high OR ideally would be below 90.

    Reply
  22. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Muscika
    Age: 6
    Trainer: D O’ Meara
    Career record: 5/37
    Turf Record: 5/34
    Turf Handicap Record: 4/32
    Highest winning OR: 87
    Current OR: 87
    Win profile
    4/11 on good ground
    3/7 at Thirsk, 2/4 at Ayr (his five career wins)
    Notes
    Not won for a year but is now down to its last winning mark.
    If he turns up at Thirsk on good ground class 3 I am on.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Brilliant, John, thanks. Hope you didn’t mind me adding the bit about Ayr to the above – think he’d be of note there too. Ran a really solid race in the Ayr Silver Cup there in September, as well as the two wins.

      Matt

      Reply
  23. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    One more from me I may be starting to bore people .If you like this I will do more has I am on furlough from my main job.

    The Armed Man
    Age: 7
    Trainer: C Fairhurst
    Career record: 7/39
    Turf Record: 6/36
    Turf Handicap Record: 6/33
    Highest winning OR: 82
    Current OR: 80
    Win profile
    5/18 with 4 further places on good to firm
    4/11 with 4 further places at Thirsk
    All 6 turf wins have come at Thirsk (4) and Redcar (2)
    Notes
    6f handicaps at Redcar or Thirsk on Good to Firm: 13 runs, 5 wins, 2 places +17.5
    My opinion is this one has just about reached its top ability rating at OR 82. Given right track and going could win off 81.

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      These are definitely NOT boring, John! Thanks a million for contributing.

      In a week or so’s time, I’ll pull them all into a little pdf for easier reference.

      I will add some more myself as time allows (family time today, on pain of death!!!)

      Matt

      Reply
  24. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    All weather Horse
    Muraaqeb
    Age: 6
    Trainer: J M Bradley
    Career record: 7/34
    Turf Record: 0/6
    Turf Handicap Record: 0/6
    AW Handicap Record 5/22
    Highest winning OR:56
    Current OR: 57
    Win Profile
    4/8 at Chelmsford with 2 further places
    2/7 at Kempton with 2 further places
    Days since last run 10 and under: 6/15 with 4 more places
    10 furlongs: 4/9 4 more places efforts

    Notes
    Handicap mark 57 is about his ceiling
    I have added all the place form because at this level, Class 6, it is rare to find consistent form like this. Interesting that 2 wins at further than 10 furlongs both came at Kempton. Usually held up so may need a strong run race, corroborated by his 4 10f Chelmsford wins being in fields of 11, 12, and 15 twice.

    Reply
  25. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Hajjam
    Age: 6
    Trainer: Liam Bailey
    Career record: 6/34
    Turf Record: 5/29
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/26
    Highest winning OR: 89
    Current OR: 83
    Win Profile
    5/8 at Ayr (2) or Redcar (3)
    All wins 7 furlongs
    All wins and places class 3 or lower

    Notes
    Definitely needs a flat galloping track. Last 2 wins have come off 89 and 87.
    My opinion would be if dropped to class 4 0-85 he would go very close given win profile .

    Reply
  26. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Air Raid
    Age: 5
    Trainer: Jedd O’Keeffe
    Career record: 5/15
    Turf Record: 5/11
    Turf Handicap Record: 3/8
    Highest winning OR: 95
    Current OR: 99
    Win Profile
    4/6 on Soft
    3/3 at Hamilton

    Notes
    Soft ground looks a must along with a stiff uphill finish over 6 furlongs (has won 2 at 7 furlongs, non handicaps).
    Rating of 100 looks to be too high, though may still be improving.

    Reply
  27. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Get Knotted
    Age: 8
    Trainer: M Dods
    Career record: 8/53
    Turf Record: 8/52
    Turf Handicap Record: 7/49
    Highest winning OR: 95
    Current OR: 95
    Win Profile
    3/7 2 further places 10 days or less since last run
    4/19 further 6 places at 7 furlongs
    3/10 3 further places on soft going
    0/13 at 6 furlongs (though 5 places in big fields)
    6/7 wins with 10 runners or less (7/27 12 or less runners, +17.5)

    Notes
    Can win at a mile (3/17) but 7 furlongs after a short break look optimum betting conditions.
    Last winning mark was 89 on soft which he won comfortably, so may need to drop a little.

    Reply
    • therams1962
      therams1962 says:

      East Street Revue
      Age: 7
      Trainer: T Easterby
      Career record: 6/46
      Turf Record: 6/41
      Turf Handicap Record: 6/38
      Highest winning OR: 89
      Current OR: 76
      Win Profile
      4/9 and 2 further places when returning within 10 days and under
      5/26 and further 8 places at 5 furlongs (5 of 6 career wins at 5f)
      Only 1/12 at 6 furlongs (last win)

      Notes
      Last 2 winning marks were 74 and 73 so looks fairly well treated at the moment. Typical short break pattern horse.

      Reply
      • shell62
        shell62 says:

        I agree I did follow this horse, is getting to a rating now where you need to have a look, usually needs a few runs so is handicap may come down a few pounds. Good ground seems to suit but on good to soft is record is 2 wins and 1 2nd.

        Reply
  28. buchanskii
    buchanskii says:

    Elusif
    Age: 5
    Trainer: Richard Guest
    Career Record: 6/32
    AW Hcap Record: 6/25
    Highest Winning Mark: 57
    Current Mark: 63

    Win Profile:
    5/9 when fitted with a visor
    1/23 when no equipment and has finished outside the places every time when not winning.

    Notes
    The visor is the key to this horse and I think the new yard recognise this. Probably at the ceiling of his ability now but a few runs without a visor can see his mark plummet and can strike at a lower level when re-applied.

    Reply
  29. jock123
    jock123 says:

    Dakota Gold
    Age: 5
    Trainer: M Dods
    Career on turf: 27 runs 9 wins 17 places
    Highest OR 110
    Current OR 110
    Distance: 5 – 6 fur
    Going; GF thru to Soft
    with beasley onboard 23 runs 9 wins 17 places

    Reply
  30. reidy105
    reidy105 says:

    Matt,

    Becky The Thatcher
    Age: 7
    Trainer: Micky Hammond
    Flat Turf: 3/22
    Flat Turf Handicaps: 3/18
    Highest winning OR: 66
    Current flat OR: 68
    Form at 2m+ (flat turf handicaps): 062112281
    Form at Pontefract: 212281
    Ridden by Francis Norton: 1221

    It looks as though Becky may have been retired, but she’ll be interesting over two miles-plus on the level, if not, especially if ridden by Franny at Pontefract.

    Reply
  31. Terry
    Terry says:

    Joyful dream
    Age: 6
    Trainer: J Butler
    Career record: 2/45
    Flat turf record: 2/17 (0/28 AW)
    Flat turf handicaps: 2/12 (5 further places)
    High winning OR: 52
    Current OR: 58
    Brighton: 2/11 (5 further places) Full Form: 53322513126
    Weight less than 9-0: 5322511

    Notes
    Brighton handicaps in August or September: 2/5 (2 further places) +7.5

    Reply
  32. snakes1206
    snakes1206 says:

    Copper Knight
    Age: 6
    Trainer: Tim Easterby
    Record: 8/40
    Turf Record: 7/38
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/24 (5 more places)
    Highest Winning OR: 106
    Current OR: 102

    Win Profile:
    8/8 wins over 5 furlongs (1 win on AW)
    5/7 turf wins on Good/Good to Firm
    5/7 turf wins on straight tracks
    4/7 turf wins with David Allan as jockey (5/7 wins overall with D Allan)
    4/7 turf wins in May
    4/8 wins at York (4 wins from 10 runs at York, 1 place)

    Reply
  33. shell62
    shell62 says:

    El Astronaute
    Age: 7
    Trainer: JJ Quinn
    Career record: 12/48
    Flat Turf: 12/46
    Flat Turf Handicaps: 9/31
    Last Winning OR: 106
    Current OR: 110
    10/12 wins at 5f (other two at 5 1/2f around Chester and in France)
    8/12 wins when Led (other 4 when Prominent)

    NOTES
    Has a preference to fast ground (4 wins on Good to Firm) and being a front runner suits him when given a favourable draw. Is 7yo now but being a sprinter wouldn’t be against him. A lot of his running has been on flat tracks which suits his running style, most of his runs are from the front.
    Has a very good record at Chester because of the tight turns, suits his running style and from a low draw is always going to run well there as his record shows. He’s not quite a Group 1 horse but there are still races to be won with him in Group 2 or lower. Should be able to win another race this year given he’s a fast ground front runner, watch out for him running at Chester. I would say a fast run race on fast ground at 5 furlongs would be his best conditions.

    Reply
  34. Chris Worrall
    Chris Worrall says:

    Kachumba
    Age: 5
    Trainer: Rae Guest
    Record: 7/25
    Turf Record: 7/19
    Turf Handicap Record: 7/19
    Highest Winning OR: 76
    Current OR: 76

    Win Profile:
    7/16 @ 7f
    7/14 on Gd to Fm
    7/11 @ 7f on Gd to Fm
    5/10 left handed
    5/9 Brighton
    5/8 @ 7f left handed
    5/7 Brighton 7f
    5/7 Brighton 7f Gd to Fm

    According to BHA website, she might have been taken out of training now unfortunately. But worth keeping an eye on in case that changes.

    Reply
  35. powderbob
    powderbob says:

    Round the island
    7yo
    Trainer R Whitaker
    Turf career 6/38
    Turf handicaps 6/36
    Highest winning OR 67
    Current OR 55

    Notes
    5 of 6 turf wins at Pontefract
    5 of 6 turf wins on Good or Good to Firm (also won on soft)
    All wins were over 6f
    All wins were in class 5 handicaps
    All wins within 17 days of previous race
    Didn’t have a good 2019, but popped up to win at Pontefract over 6f in September

    Reply
  36. Tony McCormick
    Tony McCormick says:

    Bit of a local one for me here Matt and readers.

    Musharrif
    Age: 8
    Trainer: Declan Carroll
    Career record: 8/59
    Turf Record: 8/50
    Turf Handicap Record: 7/47
    Highest winning OR: 75 (x2)
    Current OR: 78

    Win Profile:
    7/42 turf when running within 60 days of last run
    6/25 turf at Beverley, Nottingham or Pontefract (incl six placed efforts) Win +19.38, EW +21.58
    6/28 on turf in Class 5 contests (8 placed efforts)
    6/29 between July and September (hit the frame on six occasions) (1 from 18 between April and June)
    6/32 turf over 5f (7 place)
    6/33 when rated between 71 and 80 (six further places) – Five races rated 80+, failed to hit the frame

    Musharrif may need a couple of runs back but is sure to be of interest when appearing off a mark of 75 or lower, though can still be a threat from an each-way perspective from a higher rating.

    Reply
  37. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Cardsharp
    Age: 5
    Trainer: M Johnson
    Career record: 7/30
    Turf Record: 6/24
    Handicap Record: 2/8 (1/1 on AW, 1/7 turf)
    Highest winning OR: 107
    Current OR:107
    Win Profile
    6/7 wins 8 runners or fewer
    6/7 wins when Led or Prominent (the same six as above)
    Also Won a group 2 race as a 2 year old (12 runners)

    Notes
    Handicap mark may be a little high now 107. Capable of winning a decent small field race.

    Reply
  38. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Cape Byron
    Age: 6
    Trainer: R Varian
    Career record: 5/15
    Turf Record: 5/15
    Turf Handicap Record: 2/8 (3 places)
    Highest winning handicap OR: 107
    Current OR: 113

    Win Profile
    4/5 wins came after a break of 40 days +
    2/7 and 4 places at 7 furlongs

    Notes
    7 furlongs looks his best trip but won the Wokingham over 6 furlongs suggesting a strongly run 6 furlongs race would also suit. Might be too high in the ratings to contest handicaps this season.

    Reply
  39. sinkov
    sinkov says:

    Belated Breath
    Age: 5
    Trainer: H Morrison
    Career record: 6/18
    Turf Record: 5/13
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/13
    Highest winning OR: 90
    Current OR: 91
    Win Profile:
    5/5 turf wins (and all 6 career wins) ridden by Oisin Murphy, from 10 rides
    5/5 turf wins (and all 6 career wins) at 6 furlongs
    4/5 turf wins on Good or Good to Firm (1 win on Good to Soft, 1 on standard)
    4/5 turf wins at Nottingham and Salisbury, 2 at each, (also won at Windsor and Wolverhampton)
    4/5 turf wins in fields up to 11 runners
    4/5 turf wins running within 21 days
    3/5 turf wins when leading (other two when racing prominently)

    Reply
  40. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Lake Volta
    Age: 6
    Trainer: M Johnson
    Career record: 5/40
    Turf Record: 5/33
    Turf Handicap Record: 2/24
    Highest winning OR: 98
    Current OR: 94
    Win Profile
    5/5 wins 8 or fewer runners
    5/5 wins 10 days since last run or under
    Notes
    Looks to be in a good mark of finding a suitable race .

    Reply
  41. sunchu
    sunchu says:

    NOBLE BEHEST
    Trainer: I WILLIAMS
    Age: 6
    Flat Career: 8/19
    AW Career: 7/12
    AW Handicaps: 7/10
    Current OR: 80
    Last winning OR: 73
    14f+ AW Handicaps: 111121112 (+19 at SP)
    May need to drop a bit in the weights but still progressive so cannot be discounted over a trip on AW
    Won at Chelmsford (3 times), Wolves (x2), Lingfield and Southwell

    Reply
  42. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Kynren
    Age: 6
    Trainer: T D Barron
    Career record: 4/18
    Turf Record: 4/17
    Turf Handicap Record: 3/16
    Highest winning OR: 101
    Current OR: 107
    Win Profile
    3/4 wins on soft (other win was a maiden on good/firm)

    Notes
    Some massive runs in top handicaps on soft going, very often travelling like the winner.
    Looks to need a drop in the handicap at the moment though may continue to hit the frame in big field handicap company.

    Reply
  43. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Alemaratalyoum
    Age: 6
    Trainer: S C Williams
    Career record: 8/37
    Turf Record: 7/30
    Turf Handicap Record: 7/27
    Highest winning OR: 91
    Current OR: 96
    Win Profile
    3/7 days since last run 10 or less
    3/4 at Haydock
    6/8 wins on flat galloping tracks
    7/8 wins left handed
    Notes
    Looks to be in the handicapper’s grip currently but interesting if getting down to 90-odd.

    Reply
  44. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Presidential
    Age: 6
    Trainer: Roger Fell
    Career record: 5/35
    Turf Record: 5/33
    Turf Handicap Record: 5/27
    Highest winning OR: 84
    Current OR: 84
    Win Profile
    3/12 with 5 more places days since last run 10 or less
    4/5 wins at 7f (21 career runs at 7f)

    Notes
    Only 5/35 so interesting that 3 wins have come after a short break.
    Now back down to last winning mark.
    May drop below 84 pretty soon.

    Reply
  45. Nigel
    Nigel says:

    Just That Lord
    Age 7
    Trainer M Attwater
    Career runs: 6/37
    Handicap runs: 5/31 (plus 9 placed)
    Highest winning OR: 84
    Current OR: 84

    Handicap filter applied to all below results as in my opinion it better reflects preferences:
    Field size: all wins in fields up to 11 runners (plus 7 placed). (In 12+ fields 6 runs, 0 wins, 2 placed)
    He’s a speedball who dominates from the front – more likely to be taken on in bigger fields.
    Class: Class 2: 8 runs, 0 wins, 3 placed
    Class 3 and below: 23 runs, 5 wins plus 6 placed

    The real clincher for me is handicap mark:. Up to OR 84 it’s 10 runs, 5 wins plus 2 placed IV 4.45, A/E 2.97. From 85 upwards he’s 21 runs, 0 wins, 7 placed.
    This in itself goes a long way towards explaining the discrepancy between class 2 and class 3 results – he’s just not quite good enough to be winning in class 2.

    So, class 3 or below, fields of up to 11 and running off a mark of 84 or below he’s 9 runs, won 5, placed 2 for an IV 4.69, A/E 3.64.

    Reply
  46. shell62
    shell62 says:

    Ice Cold In Alex
    Age: 6
    Trainer: KJ CONDON
    Career Record: 4/27
    Turf Record: 3/24
    Turf Handicap Record: 2/19
    Highest Winning OR: 81
    Current OR: 85

    WIN PROFILE
    GD – GD FIRM RUNS 3 WINS 3
    BEST DISTANCE PROBABLY 7FUR

    Unlucky not to win last year needs luck with is running style being a hold up horse. Curragh seems to suit is running 5 runs 2 wins and 3 placings. 7 Fur on fast ground is what he wants and given more luck in running is capable of winning a big race when he gets is conditions, and a bit of luck in running. I think this one could pop up at a decent price this year. He is creeping up a bit in the weights but when he gets is condition’s and maybe the Curragh I will be having a close look.

    Reply
  47. pilotwings248
    pilotwings248 says:

    Save The Bees
    Trainer: Declan Carroll
    Race record: 26 Runs 6 Wins, 11 Places.
    Class: 3,4,5 6/26 + 5 Places
    Dis: 1m / 1m2f
    Prefer 7 to 8 Runner races
    Jockey’s: Ger O’Neill, David Allan
    H,Gear: Blinkers
    David Allan 5 Run’s 2 wins + 2 Places
    Joe Fanning has 100% record but from one run

    Reply
  48. Chris Murrell
    Chris Murrell says:

    Burnt Sugar
    Trainer: Roger Fell
    Age: 8
    Current OR: 99
    Highest winning OR: 100

    Did not win last season, OR was too high
    Last four wins at 7f
    Has never won fresh, has always had at least 3 previous runs in 90 days
    Any going
    If above conditions are met 4/9, +37.00 at SP

    May no longer be in training according to BHA website.

    Reply
  49. Twospoons
    Twospoons says:

    Bollin Joan
    Age: 5 (Filly)
    Trainer: Tim Easterby
    Career record: 6/24
    Flat Turf: 6/24
    Flat Turf Handicaps: 6/21
    Last Winning OR: 71
    Current OR: 76
    6/6 wins at 10-12f (all career handicap runs also in this range)
    5/6 wins Jul-Sep (other win 29th June)
    5/6 wins within 8 days of previous run (6, 8, 8, 21, 8, 2)
    4/6 runs had two previous runs within previous 20 days (16, 14, 26, 36, 19, 14 – days since two runs prior)
    All wins wearing cheekpieces (from 20 career handicap runs with this headgear)
    Wins on GS (1) to GF (3)

    Notes
    Potentially a progressive filly that has improved from Class 5 through to Class 2 (OR from 52 to 71) already. A couple of runs in June to bring her OR down before she hits her sweet spot with ideal conditions might be in order.

    Reply
  50. Janves
    Janves says:

    Love this post and comments, here’s one from me:
    What A Welcome
    Age: 5yo
    Trainer: P Chamings
    Career record: 8/20
    Turf record: 6/16
    Turf Hcap record: 6/14
    Highest winning OR: 95
    Current OR: 95
    Winning profile:
    Class: 8/8 3-6 (0 wins from 7 runs in class 2)
    Distance: 7/8 10-13f
    Going: 5/8 Good

    Notes:
    0 wins, 2 pl (8 runs) in 2019, mark down from 100 to 95, only 1win/8runs on Good To Firm, 5 wins from 5 runs as a FAV @ odds of 6/4, 13/8, 15/8(2x) and 4/1 with A/E 2.99.
    Conclusion:
    OR below 90 accompanied with drop in class, good ground and market support seem ideal conditions

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Great stuff, Jan.

      I think this lad may have been sold to race overseas. Not sure about that so will include him, but wouldn’t surprise me if he isn’t sighted on UK shores this year.

      Reply
  51. nickywicki
    nickywicki says:

    The Throstles (AW)

    Age: 5
    Trainer: Kevin Frost
    Career record: 6/26
    AW Record: 5/13
    Turf Handicap Record: 1/11
    Highest winning OR: 77
    Current OR: 79 AW

    Win Profile:
    5/13 at Wolverhampton
    4/7 AW wins when apprentice ridden
    All wins on left-handed tracks (6/20 left-handed overall)
    6/20 when running prominent or led (0/6 otherwise)
    4/10 at 1m 1 1/2f (also won over 7f as 2yo, and in 1m2f handicap at Newbury, sole turf win)

    Reply
    • therams1962
      therams1962 says:

      very good profile .May i just add on style we have no way of knowing the horses future run style .I tend to leave run style out of profiling unless held up large field or looks to dominate in small fields .Hope this makes sense and helps a little .

      Reply
  52. David Dickinson
    David Dickinson says:

    Powerful Dream (IRE)
    Age 7
    Trainer R Harris
    Career record: 10/61
    Turf Handicap record: 4/34
    AW Handicap record: 6/24
    Highest Winning OR: 71 Flat / 68 AW
    Current OR: 65 Flat / 71 AW

    Win Profile:
    Bath handicaps 4/27 (+15.5)
    Wolverhampton handicaps 4/18 (+6.25)
    Class 5-6: 10/48 (+27) [Class 4 and up: 0/10, 0 places]
    All wins left handed

    Reply
  53. jamesc64
    jamesc64 says:

    Thornaby Nash
    Age 8
    Trainer: J Ward
    Career Record 8/58
    Turf Record 8/48
    Turf Handicap Record 8/43

    Win Profile:
    6/8 wins (from 17 runs) at Redcar, Thirsk or Carlisle (two at each track)
    8/38 at 7f/8f
    7/8 wins in double-digit fields
    Versatile as regards ground

    Notes
    Now down to a mark of 60,which is due to his runs on the Aw where he has finished 13/14,11/13,11/14
    Looks to be on a workable mark when he returns to the turf
    Back in Hcps of 7f-1m on Turf ONLY
    May need a good pace to run at based on his bigger field wins

    Out of training according to BHA website.

    Reply
  54. Paul
    Paul says:

    I am a bit late to this party. I have brought some Blue Nun along if that helps.

    Lyrica’s Lion
    Age 5
    Trainer: Sheena West
    Career Record: 5/19
    Flat Turf: 4/14
    Flat Turf Handicap: 4/14

    Win profile:
    Handicaps OR69
    Going: Good (1 win from 3 runs) or Good to firm (3 from 6)
    All 4 turf wins at 10F (AW win at 12f)
    Less than 30 days since last run (3 of 4 turf wins 23-30 days since last run)

    Notes:
    Has won on AW and gone close at 11F, although conditions above seem to be prime.
    Not won since October 2018 and now well handicapped.

    Reply
  55. therams1962
    therams1962 says:

    Could not resist this one
    Powerallied
    Age: 7
    Trainer: R Fahey
    Career record: 7/41
    Turf Record: 7/41
    Turf Handicap Record: 6/38
    Highest winning OR: 88
    Current OR: 85

    Win Profile:
    6/22 with 5 places at Chester
    6/6 wins have come at Chester
    4/6 wins have been on good ground (won as 2yo on soft, and also on GF in 2018)
    4/6 wins have been at 6 furlongs other 2 wins came at 5 furlongs when well drawn in stalls 1 and 2

    Notes
    Won off 88 and last winning mark was 83, so could win off present mark of 85 at Chester obviously.

    Reply
  56. powderbob
    powderbob says:

    C’est No Mour
    Age: 7
    Trainer: P Hedger
    Career Record: 5/33
    Flat Turf Record: 5/27
    Flat Turf Handicaps: 5/25
    AW Record: 0/12
    Highest winning OR: 81
    Current OR: 76

    Win Profile:
    4/5 wins in Class 4 (also won in Class 5 early in career)
    3/5 wins at Epsom, 1 at Lingfield turf, similar track to Epsom
    3/5 wins at 1m4f, has also won at 10f and 11f

    Peace Prevails
    Age 5
    Trainer J Boyle
    Career Record: 4/25
    Turf Record: 4/13
    Turf Handicap Record: 4/11
    Highest winning OR: 66
    Current OR: 66

    Win Profile:
    4/4 wins on Good or Good to Firm
    4/4 wins at 11f or 12f
    3/4 at 1m4f at Epsom (1L 3rd in other run over that course/distance)
    3/4 wins at Class 5
    3/4 wins for lady riders

    Reply
  57. Twospoons
    Twospoons says:

    Tarboosh
    Age: 7
    Trainer: P Midgley
    Career record: 11/37
    Turf Record: 10/30
    Highest winning OR: 104
    Current OR: 105
    Win Profile:
    10/10 turf wins at 5f (Unraced at 2, and not raced beyond 5f since 1st race of 4yo season)
    9/10 turf wins in fields of 9 or less
    8/11 wins in late season (Aug to Oct, also 1 x win 20 Jul)
    All wins ≤Cl2 and ≤12K

    Seems to be versatile ground wise (Good/Firm to Soft) with all wins coming relatively late in the turf season (like some other Midgeley horses) season. He may be progressive but currently at a career high OR and has struggled when seemingly overfaced in higher quality races so a prize money limit of 15K may be sensible. A couple of early season runs to drop his handicap mark a few pounds should see him well placed to reap the benefits in small field 5f races later in the season.

    Nice angle is Midgeley 5f hcp’ers in August in races with ≤9 runners and 1st four in the betting. This returns 12 winners, 16 places from 25 runners (136% ROI) that tightens to 10w, 13pl from 15 run (248%ROI) where horse lead or run close to the pace (pace score of 3 or 4)

    Reply
  58. MrForce
    MrForce says:

    Graceful Lady
    Age 7
    Trainer R Eddery
    Career record: 7/48
    Turf Handicap record: 6/28
    AW Handicap record: 1/15
    Highest Winning OR: 74 Flat
    Current OR: 81

    Win Profile: 4/5 (+28)
    Flat Turf
    July onwards
    Handicaps OR 74 or less (75+ 0-11, 1 place)
    Distance 2m (other distances (2/15 -8.09)
    LH Galloping Tracks

    Reply
  59. MrForce
    MrForce says:

    Stormin Tom
    Age 7
    Trainer T Easterby
    Career record: 8/60
    Turf Handicap record: 8/55
    Highest Winning OR: 80 Flat
    Current OR: 67

    WIn Profile 5/7 (+20.46)
    Race Code :Flat Turf Handicap
    Course: RH – Ripon or Beverley (5/13)
    Months June to August (5/21)
    Distance 14f -16f (5/39)

    Coincidental Stats
    has only won Monday to Wednesday

    Reply
  60. sunchu
    sunchu says:

    another AW one
    BRAINS
    j osbourne
    AW runs 11 wins 5 plc 5 8f runs 7 wins 5 plc 5
    8f blinkers
    OR 93 last win 82
    think this horse is progressive
    dec/feb
    sunchu

    Reply
  61. sunchu
    sunchu says:

    EXECUTIVE FORCE
    m wigham
    AW runs 18 wins 6 plc 11
    8/10f C/P
    francis norton
    OR 97 last win 93
    class 4/3 possible could win class 2
    sunchu

    Reply
  62. sunchu
    sunchu says:

    LUCKY DREAM
    i williams
    AW runs 10 wins 5 plc 7
    10f chelmsford newcastle
    OR85 last win 79
    2nd in class 2 kempton off 85
    sunchu

    Reply
  63. sunchu
    sunchu says:

    GORING
    eve johnson houghton
    AW runs 23 wins 6 plc13
    8f lingfield
    visor
    OR 100 last win 98 may need to drop a bit
    sunch

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Many thanks for these, sunchu, and great work.

      For the report, I am focusing on turf runners so will exclude these (and remove the other AW profiles).

      Matt

      Reply
  64. winderman
    winderman says:

    This might not fit your criteria Matt, as he runs both codes. But I thought I’d add him anyway.
    DE LITTLE ENGINE

    7F 5 from 25 other 12-0
    Class 6 5 from 25 other 16-0
    Cheek pieces 5 from 17 other 22-0
    left handed 5 from 35 other 06-0
    I would want 3 of the 4 above to align before betting

    A short rest period of about two weeks is ideal.
    Under 20/1.

    Reply
  65. Not David
    Not David says:

    This is a great idea. I for one will be following these horses. Many if not all are memorable names to me. I believe, if executed correctly, this method will work.

    Reply

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