Regular readers will know I love trainer patterns. It's one of the core principles of my betting, and it rewards the savvy punter time and time and time again.
But what do I mean by trainer patterns? I'm not talking about your Richard Hannon's or your Nicky Henderson's. No, every Tom, Dick and Sally knows a) they win loads of races, and b) you'd lose money backing their horses blindly.
What I love is unearthing the under the radar trainers which the public largely ignore, largely through ignorance. These are the golden guys and girls of the training ranks, and they make their followers very happy.
About six weeks ago, I started researching a squad for 2014 and beyond. I decided that I wanted a combination of a reasonable strike rate, and consistent reliable level of profit. So here's what I did:
1. I set an odds threshold of 12/1. Many of the trainers I uncovered are profitable to follow at any price, but I wanted to keep losing runs down as far as possible, while still offering plenty of meat on the punting bone.
2. I wanted to find a degree of specialism in my trainers, so I separated out flat turf, from all weather, from National Hunt.
3. I wanted a group that could be supported to win, or each way, to similarly profitable ends.
It took a lot of time to determine my final team, but it was time well spent. In fact, I wish I'd written this post last week, because since then there have been four winners from eleven qualifiers, netting a profit at starting price of 12.25 points!
Now that strike rate is higher than normal. Historically, we could expect a win rate of 22% or so, or two in nine; and an each way hit rate of 45% or thereabout, or four in nine to make the frame.
Profit, Strike Rate, ROI
So let's talk in more detail about the numbers...
My research period covered the full years 2010 to 2013, and the first part of 2014. I used the impressive horseracebase software to help me and the summary information for the final fourteen in my Under The Radars trainer list is hugely exciting.
The flat turf quartet achieved these figures (which have improved since, thanks to three winners in the last week!)
The all weather six performed to this level:
And the National Hunt band of four chipped in with:
The total for the fourteen in combination, then, looks like this:
History is by far and away the best indicator of the future: that's why insurance companies, weather forecasters, and bettors use past results to inform future decisions! But, as anyone who has got rained on when it was supposed to be sunny will attest, things don't always go to plan.
What I'm trying to say is that yes, of course I expect these trainers to collectively make a good profit in the coming months (and years). But some will have lean times. That's just the nature of the game. Stables get affected by viruses; horses get too highly handicapped; trainers can get a poorer quality of animal sent to them. All of these things can - and will - affect the profitability of our group.
On the flip side, horses can be very leniently handicapped and trainers can get better horses sent to them. Our squad are adept not just at training but, super importantly, at placing their horses optimally for a top performance.
Profit is all well and good but if we have to wait thirty bets for a 40/1 winner, that won't suit many every day punters. That's why I included the 12/1 price ceiling, to ensure the strike rate remained acceptable. With a 22% win rate, and a 45% place rate, we'll stay in the game. But still, losing runs will happen. That - again - is the nature of the game, and we must face that certainty head on, and work with a bank of at least 70 points if we're betting all qualifiers.
The strike rate since the beginning of 2013 has been higher, nudging 25%, and that aligns with the generally upwardly mobile profile of most of our trainers. But it makes sense to work on the basis of around an 18% win rate, from which we will still achieve a healthy profit.
Return On Investment
What about ROI? How much back for every unit invested? As with everything in terms of prediction, it's a bit hit and miss, and I wouldn't want to be drawn too much. However, what we can say is that looking at the past few years, the ROI has run anywhere from 22% to a scarcely sustainable 63%.
Again, managing expectations, I'd be very happy with a return on investment of 14%. That is, for every 500 bets, a profit of 70 points. To £10 bets, that would equate to £700 profit, which is not bad, right?
Number of bets
Another consideration I had when I put this list together was the volume of bets. Too few and it's easy to forget about the team; too many and it becomes hard to keep up.
I'm expecting around 500 bets this year, give or take 50-odd. That means between one and two a day on average. Some months will be busier than others, some days busier than others, and some days there will be no qualifiers. Again, just like any other setup.
What you'll get...
So what am I actually offering?
Well, this is a simple proposition: when you complete your signup, you'll be redirected to a download page. (Make sure you click the redirect link!)
On that page, you'll be able to download two files: the manual, containing the list of trainers; and a historical results file in Excel format.
You then add the trainers to your choice of tracker tool: Geegeez Gold subscribers can track the trainers within the Tracker; or you can use horseracebase if you have an account there, or sportinglife.com allow trainer tracking as well, I believe.
But what you're really getting is the benefit of my knowledge, experience and research to help you find more and better winners. And, as importantly, to put you in touch with some trainers that you may not have heard of, and that will help you to make the game pay.
Value betting is always in knowing what the masses don't, and betting accordingly. 'Under The Radar Trainers' will help you to be one step ahead of the majority.
Oh yes, and I've got a pretty cool bonus - worth the price on its own, as you'll see - which I'll tell you about in a minute.
You've seen the profitability, you've got a feel for the likely style of the information, and by now you're either interested or you're not. [Why on earth wouldn't you be?! 😉 ]
So now it's a question of price versus value.
As you may know, I normally sell this type of product for £97 + VAT. And those products sell out every time, usually within a day or two.
Well, I'm not doing the big hype-y launch for Under The Radar Trainers. In fact, I'm not planning to offer it to anyone outside of my list (though I may change my mind on that in future).
This is a geegeez exclusive, and I'm offering loyal geegeez readers the chance to follow me in on a shrewd squad of trainers who know how to make money for their backers for just £27 (plus VAT, I'm afraid).
But wait, there's more...
I'm really thrilled with the Under The Radar Trainers manual and, as I wrote at the top of this post, I wish I'd shared it a week ago, as it's been a great week! But, as always, I want to over-deliver to you.
And that's why I'm including a seventeen page report called 'The Data Book 2014'.
The Data Book 2014 is, as the name suggests, packed with data. Trainer data.
It's broken down into four sections, as follows:
1. Overall trainer performance since 2009
A list of all trainers with runners in Britain since 2009 to have made at least five points profit for both win AND place bets. The table is sorted by profitability, so you might only want to focus on the top three or four lines of info - and you might not!
2. Trainer / Jockey Combination performance since 2009
This list, by trainer, shows all trainer/jockey combinations with runners in Britain since 2009 to have made at least ten points profit for both win AND place bets. It will be well worth referencing this information when you've found a likely bet and want to know how the trainer and jockey have fared in combination previously.
3. Trainer Profit by Flat Course since 2009
A list, by flat course, of all trainers in Britain since 2009 to have made at least fifteen points profit for both win AND place bets. Just check the relevant track each day and note the runners for the listed trainers. It might put you onto a few you'd have otherwise overlooked.
4. Trainer Profit by National Hunt Course since 2009
A list, by National Hunt course, of all trainers in Britain since 2009 to have made at least fifteen points profit for both win AND place bets. Again, just check the relevant track each day and note the runners for the listed trainers.
This manual is an essential reference tool. It's short enough to print off at just fourteen pages of actual data, and will prove an invaluable aid to your betting.
I was seriously considering charging for this and, when you see it, I think you'll agree it's worth at least the price of the Under The Radar Trainers report by itself.
But I'm happy to bundle it together as a comprehensive trainer package for geegeez readers.
There's no 'urgency' or 'scarcity' play here. If you want it, click the link below and get it. The only thing you might be missing out on by delaying is the next winner (or two).
Thanks for reading, good luck with your betting, and