Fourteen Golden Guys and Gals To Follow…

The summary results since 2010 for UTR...

The summary results since 2010 for UTR...

Regular readers will know I love trainer patterns. It's one of the core principles of my betting, and it rewards the savvy punter time and time and time again.

But what do I mean by trainer patterns? I'm not talking about your Richard Hannon's or your Nicky Henderson's. No, every Tom, Dick and Sally knows a) they win loads of races, and b) you'd lose money backing their horses blindly.

What I love is unearthing the under the radar trainers which the public largely ignore, largely through ignorance. These are the golden guys and girls of the training ranks, and they make their followers very happy.

About six weeks ago, I started researching a squad for 2014 and beyond. I decided that I wanted a combination of a reasonable strike rate, and consistent reliable level of profit. So here's what I did:

1. I set an odds threshold of 12/1. Many of the trainers I uncovered are profitable to follow at any price, but I wanted to keep losing runs down as far as possible, while still offering plenty of meat on the punting bone.

2. I wanted to find a degree of specialism in my trainers, so I separated out flat turf, from all weather, from National Hunt.

3. I wanted a group that could be supported to win, or each way, to similarly profitable ends.

It took a lot of time to determine my final team, but it was time well spent. In fact, I wish I'd written this post last week, because since then there have been four winners from eleven qualifiers, netting a profit at starting price of 12.25 points!

Now that strike rate is higher than normal. Historically, we could expect a win rate of 22% or so, or two in nine; and an each way hit rate of 45% or thereabout, or four in nine to make the frame.

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Profit, Strike Rate, ROI

So let's talk in more detail about the numbers...

My research period covered the full years 2010 to 2013, and the first part of 2014. I used the impressive horseracebase software to help me and the summary information for the final fourteen in my Under The Radars trainer list is hugely exciting.

Profit Summary

The flat turf quartet achieved these figures (which have improved since, thanks to three winners in the last week!)

Year Bets Wins Win% P/L Places Place% ROI BSP
2014 32 9 28% 32.75 16 50% 102.34% 38.09
2013 136 33 24% 77.63 63 46% 57.08% 98.23
2012 79 14 18% 23.13 33 42% 29.28% 34.78
2011 60 8 13% 0.75 19 32% 1.25% 8.88
2010 37 10 27% 26.75 23 62% 72.30% 33.02

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The all weather six performed to this level:

Year Bets Wins Win% P/L Places Place% ROI BSP
2014 119 26 22% 32.95 49 41% 27.69% 45.97
2013 220 56 25% 139.77 111 50% 63.53% 175.2
2012 159 29 18% 21.2 67 42% 13.33% 37.09
2011 138 27 20% 54.85 58 42% 39.75% 75.2
2010 71 10 14% 8.51 25 35% 11.99% 17.92

And the National Hunt band of four chipped in with:

Year Bets Wins Win% P/L Places Place% ROI BSP
2014 66 17 26% 19.99 27 41% 30.29% 29
2013 162 38 23% 106.78 80 49% 65.91% 133.4
2012 104 25 24% 33.04 54 52% 31.77% 45.72
2011 58 17 29% 70.08 28 48% 120.83% 82.81
2010 51 7 14% 0.5 14 27% 0.98% 5.5

 

The total for the fourteen in combination, then, looks like this:

Year Bets Wins Win% P/L Places Place% ROI BSP
2014 217 52 23.96% 85.69 92 42.40% 39.49% 113.1
2013 518 127 24.52% 324.18 254 49.03% 62.58% 406.8
2012 342 68 19.88% 77.37 154 45.03% 22.62% 117.6
2011 256 52 20.31% 125.68 105 41.02% 49.09% 166.9
2010 159 27 16.98% 35.76 62 38.99% 22.49% 56.44

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PLChartAs you can see, the profit figures are massive, so let's take a moment for a reality check.

History is by far and away the best indicator of the future: that's why insurance companies, weather forecasters, and bettors use past results to inform future decisions! But, as anyone who has got rained on when it was supposed to be sunny will attest, things don't always go to plan.

What I'm trying to say is that yes, of course I expect these trainers to collectively make a good profit in the coming months (and years). But some will have lean times. That's just the nature of the game. Stables get affected by viruses; horses get too highly handicapped; trainers can get a poorer quality of animal sent to them. All of these things can - and will - affect the profitability of our group.

On the flip side, horses can be very leniently handicapped and trainers can get better horses sent to them. Our squad are adept not just at training but, super importantly, at placing their horses optimally for a top performance.

Strike Rate

Profit is all well and good but if we have to wait thirty bets for a 40/1 winner, that won't suit many every day punters. That's why I included the 12/1 price ceiling, to ensure the strike rate remained acceptable. With a 22% win rate, and a 45% place rate, we'll stay in the game. But still, losing runs will happen. That - again - is the nature of the game, and we must face that certainty head on, and work with a bank of at least 70 points if we're betting all qualifiers.

The strike rate since the beginning of 2013 has been higher, nudging 25%, and that aligns with the generally upwardly mobile profile of most of our trainers. But it makes sense to work on the basis of around an 18% win rate, from which we will still achieve a healthy profit.

Return On Investment

What about ROI? How much back for every unit invested? As with everything in terms of prediction, it's a bit hit and miss, and I wouldn't want to be drawn too much. However, what we can say is that looking at the past few years, the ROI has run anywhere from 22% to a scarcely sustainable 63%.

Again, managing expectations, I'd be very happy with a return on investment of 14%. That is, for every 500 bets, a profit of 70 points. To £10 bets, that would equate to £700 profit, which is not bad, right?

Number of bets

Another consideration I had when I put this list together was the volume of bets. Too few and it's easy to forget about the team; too many and it becomes hard to keep up.

I'm expecting around 500 bets this year, give or take 50-odd. That means between one and two a day on average. Some months will be busier than others, some days busier than others, and some days there will be no qualifiers. Again, just like any other setup.

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What you'll get...

So what am I actually offering?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Well, this is a simple proposition: when you complete your signup, you'll be redirected to a download page. (Make sure you click the redirect link!)

On that page, you'll be able to download two files: the manual, containing the list of trainers; and a historical results file in Excel format.

You then add the trainers to your choice of tracker tool: Geegeez Gold subscribers can track the trainers within the Tracker; or you can use horseracebase if you have an account there, or sportinglife.com allow trainer tracking as well, I believe.

But what you're really getting is the benefit of my knowledge, experience and research to help you find more and better winners. And, as importantly, to put you in touch with some trainers that you may not have heard of, and that will help you to make the game pay.

Value betting is always in knowing what the masses don't, and betting accordingly. 'Under The Radar Trainers' will help you to be one step ahead of the majority.

Oh yes, and I've got a pretty cool bonus - worth the price on its own, as you'll see - which I'll tell you about in a minute.

**

MonthlyResults2013_14How much?

You've seen the profitability, you've got a feel for the likely style of the information, and by now you're either interested or you're not. [Why on earth wouldn't you be?! 😉  ]

So now it's a question of price versus value.

As you may know, I normally sell this type of product for £97 + VAT. And those products sell out every time, usually within a day or two.

Well, I'm not doing the big hype-y launch for Under The Radar Trainers. In fact, I'm not planning to offer it to anyone outside of my list (though I may change my mind on that in future).

This is a geegeez exclusive, and I'm offering loyal geegeez readers the chance to follow me in on a shrewd squad of trainers who know how to make money for their backers for just £27 (plus VAT, I'm afraid).

.

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But wait, there's more...

I'm really thrilled with the Under The Radar Trainers manual and, as I wrote at the top of this post, I wish I'd shared it a week ago, as it's been a great week! But, as always, I want to over-deliver to you.

And that's why I'm including a seventeen page report called 'The Data Book 2014'.

The Data Book 2014 is, as the name suggests, packed with data. Trainer data.

It's broken down into four sections, as follows:

1. Overall trainer performance since 2009

A list of all trainers with runners in Britain since 2009 to have made at least five points profit for both win AND place bets. The table is sorted by profitability, so you might only want to focus on the top three or four lines of info - and you might not!

2. Trainer / Jockey Combination performance since 2009

This list, by trainer, shows all trainer/jockey combinations with runners in Britain since 2009 to have made at least ten points profit for both win AND place bets. It will be well worth referencing this information when you've found a likely bet and want to know how the trainer and jockey have fared in combination previously.

3. Trainer Profit by Flat Course since 2009

A list, by flat course, of all trainers in Britain since 2009 to have made at least fifteen points profit for both win AND place bets. Just check the relevant track each day and note the runners for the listed trainers. It might put you onto a few you'd have otherwise overlooked.

4. Trainer Profit by National Hunt Course since 2009

A list, by National Hunt course, of all trainers in Britain since 2009 to have made at least fifteen points profit for both win AND place bets. Again, just check the relevant track each day and note the runners for the listed trainers.

This manual is an essential reference tool. It's short enough to print off at just fourteen pages of actual data, and will prove an invaluable aid to your betting.

I was seriously considering charging for this and, when you see it, I think you'll agree it's worth at least the price of the Under The Radar Trainers report by itself.

But I'm happy to bundle it together as a comprehensive trainer package for geegeez readers.

There's no 'urgency' or 'scarcity' play here. If you want it, click the link below and get it. The only thing you might be missing out on by delaying is the next winner (or two).

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Thanks for reading, good luck with your betting, and

Best Regards,

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
32 replies
  1. Jim says:

    Great Stuff as usual, Matt.

    I must confess they really are under the radar names for me – look forward to cashing in on them.
    Keep up the good work!!

  2. manolete says:

    Do we have to find the horses on our own using your information data or are we given the name of the horses daily by you. Thank you

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi manolete,

      I suggest you put the names into a tracker tool – such as the one on geegeez – and you’ll have a nice list each day to look at.

      Best,
      Matt

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      It’s a report, so the purchase cost is a one off.

      Hope that clarifies,
      Matt

  3. Seamus259 says:

    Looks good Matt – tempted to buy now but will possibly wait as I might conceivably get a copy courtesy of your excellent tipping competition! Keep up the great work anyhow – enjoying the geegeez experience so far.

  4. ray ford says:

    Hi sounds good but i am not good with a p c is there any way i could be sent the selections if i pay a bit more Ray

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Ray

      I’m afraid there’s no plan to do that. However, you can get the selections from a daily newspaper in five minutes or so.

      Best Regards,
      Matt

  5. Charlie says:

    I was going to buy it Matt till I go to PayPal and realised I had to pay +vat , lolz that just takes the proverbial biscuit

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Charlie

      It does say that in the blurb above. I’m afraid I’m a UK tax payer and my business has to pay both corporation tax and VAT. Unlike those scurvy toads at Starbucks and the like, I pay my tax, and I have to charge VAT.

      If that has made the difference between you becoming a customer and not, I’m very sorry about that, but I have priced UTR as low as I possibly can to allow anyone interested to get involved.

      Best,
      Matt

  6. micko66 says:

    Hi Matt
    I love this site , the things you pick up is incredible . Me and the Missus visited our local track last night , Pontefract , and remembering the little snippet on here about stall 2 at Ponty , I eventually backed 4 winners at 7/2 , 10/1 , 3/1 & 9/2 , 3 of those winners were drawn in Stall 2 including the 10/1 shot , unbelievable site and unbelievable info . I just know one day it’s going to give me a Frankie moment and I’m going to win big ! Keep up the incredible work Matt , Kindest Regards Mick

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Mick,

      Thanks for the kind words, and well done at Ponty yesterday. Very tight turning track and low draws seem to be well favoured in the main.

      Best,
      Matt

  7. David Brown says:

    Brilliant stuff Matt.
    Would you be able to provide more guidance on how to use the geegeez tracker tool you mentioned in your reply to manolete .
    Thanks

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi David

      Thank you, and yes, I will put a little video together, though it is quite simple.

      If you’re a Gold subscriber, you’ll see a blue button called Tracker on this page:

      http://www.geegeez.co.uk/race-cards/#display=cards&day=0

      Clicking on it brings up a search box. Type in the names of the trainers, and click ‘Add’. Et voila! They’ll be tracked, and you’ll see a number next to the word ‘Tracker’ on the button telling you how many potential qualifiers you have.

      Then you just check to see if they’re running in handicaps, and their odds.

      Nothing more to it.

      Hope that gives some clarity.

      Matt

    • DeeBee says:

      Thanks for help Matt, it was staring me in the face!
      As regards the dreaded VAT issue, I think we will soon get that back from our tax-free profits using this site and the new report, so although we hate the taxman getting his hands on our money it’s a mere drop in the ocean.
      David

    • charlie says:

      Maybe Stuart but ive NEVER paid vat on a tipping service ever.i dont begrudge Matt , i begrudge paying the 20% off his hard work thats all

      • Matt Bisogno says:

        Thanks Charlie, and fair enough. To clarify, the cost of all services either includes VAT explicitly (i.e. on top, like mine), or implicitly (i.e. factored into the price already).

        I could have charged £32.40 for this, and maybe that would have been acceptable. (And maybe it wouldn’t!)

        We all have to pay VAT, either willingly or grudgingly… and it’s rarely the first of those two!!!

        Best,
        Matt

  8. hstedham says:

    Hi Matt,
    In Oct 2012 I came across Harry Fry by chance and have since made 99 pts profit backing all of his runners.
    I have been wondering how to find other ‘up-and-coming’ trainers and this might be it.
    Great work

  9. lee000 says:

    Hi Matt,

    If your research data capped from BSP= 12/1, (SP will only be known just at the off) how do you ensure this is practical and possible if we are not sitting on the p.c. all day or using a bot?

    Lee

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Lee

      Good question, and it raises a couple of points to clarify.

      Firstly, we’re talking about industry SP of 12/1, not BSP. That makes things slightly easier. However, there are still some borderline cases which may shorten into – or drift out of – range.

      The trainers I’ve selected are mostly profitable to follow to a higher odds threshold, but their strike rates and bottom line suffer the higher up the odds ladder we go.

      My experience is that it will even itself out over the long term: you may miss a winner that shortens into 12/1, and then end up backing a winner that drifts out to 16/1.

      The alternative is, as you say, to use a bot, but even then it would need to be able to track the live odds.

      I hope that offers some food for thought.

      Best,
      Matt

  10. milner25 says:

    Hi Matt,
    All tipping services pay vat as you quite rightly pointed out.It looks like i might get ‘Under The Radar’ for nowt as i won one in the tipping competition. If Charlie is still hesitating i will pay his vat for him.But really Charlie when a gift horse looks you in the mouth TAKE IT
    Kind Regards.
    Roddo

  11. Frank says:

    Hi Matt, loved trainers2, would like to buy UTR but having problems with paypal so what can I do, best regards Frank

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Di

      Firstly, thank you very much for your support, I really value it.

      I decided not to publish your comment, as I don’t really want to go down that path (as I’m sure you’ll understand). Nevertheless, the sentiment was appreciated 🙂

      Best,
      Matt

  12. luciano says:

    Hi Matt,

    How on earth does one enter the trainers into the tracker ??????????

  13. parallax says:

    Dear Matt,
    can you enlighten me as to where the Tracker tool can be found, and indicate its ease of use?
    Parallax

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Parallax, Luciano, and others asking how to use the Tracker,

      This image should help: http://geegeez.co.uk/images/Tracker.png

      It’s actually a lot easier than my garbled arrowfest above! Note, you need to be a Geegeez Gold subscriber to have access to the Tracker.

      Matt

  14. homeyc says:

    Matt

    Sounds good but before I part with my hard earned, where do I find the Tracker on your website?

    Btw – love the SOTD and DD features for permed bets

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      Please see the comment above, where I’ve answered that specific question. 🙂

      Thanks,
      Matt

  15. sondrio2 says:

    just a quick one for anyone struggling with the tracker, when entering the trainers name just enter the surname then select from all the entries displayed, ive found that if i enter the full trainers name nothing happens.

Comments are closed.