Free Betting System

Free Betting System

doldrums

**

The fortnight after the Arc weekend is always characterized by the racing equivalent of 'a belt of calms' and we are in the midst of that right now. Or, at least dear reader, I am in the midst of that right now.

I have to concede to feeling a little dull and listless myself this morning, with little to report on the horse-y front.

This changeover period is traditionally a difficult time to find winners too, with many of the flat horses being 'over the top' (i.e. having been in training for a long time and been taken to the well once too often), and an equivalent number of the jumps horses 'not fully wound up' (i.e. not quite match fit, and being aimed at bigger pots later in the season).

Whilst I love the Arc meeting, and I have a residual soft spot for Champions Day at Newmarket (where the Geegeez Racing Club members will be headed this saturday after a morning at the stables),  my big favourite is undoubtedly the Breeders Cup, held in the US either in the last week of October or, like this year, the first week in November.

I shall have much more news and opinion on that meeting, where European horses look likely to be well represented, from next week.

The other part of this transitional period is the new jumps season. With its fluent narrative which spans half of the year from October/November to March/April, the jumping game is barely wiping the sleepy dust from its eyes prior to Cheltenham's November Open Meeting (12th to 14th this year). As such, the same principles of treading carefully amongst the fit and unfit applies.

One way to establish the horses that are more likely to be fit is to check on the trainers' recent form table. If you go to Adrian Massey's brilliant website and click on the trainer information tab on the left (or just click this link), you can get a view on trainers from the last seven days, 14 days, 30 and 60 days.

There is also a breakdown of profit and loss. For instance, I can tell you that as of today, Jonjo O'Neill has had just one winner from his 33 runners in the last fortnight. He has two horses at Huntingdon tomorrow, both to be ridden by A P McCoy, and both likely to be under 10/1. Would you want to be backing those?

Conversely, Nigel 'Twist and Shout' Twiston-Davies and Philip Hobbs have 6 winners from 22 and 7 winners from 20 respectively in the same period. Whilst Hobbsy has nothing entered on that Huntingdon card, N T-D has one in almost every race, and I'd be pretty confident he'll hit the board.

Although this is a simple enough exercise, during the changeover months (April and October) it can serve you especially well. Obviously, trainer form is a key element all year round but at this time it is arguably the single most important factor when looking at any fancied runner.

Your first 30 days for just £1

[For the record, those summer jumping Welsh wizards, Tim Vaughan and Peter Bowen have hit the skids in recent weeks, with 0 from 16 and 0 from 15 respectively. Again, this can be a decent angle when looking for low liability lay material.]

So how about if we systematized this? Well, I've had a quick play with Adrian's tool (oh please, stop sniggering at the back there!), and I've come up with a cracking fun system for the months of October and November.

Now I say 'fun', because we're backing horses between 2/1 and 25/1, which means there can be loooooooong losing runs. As such, the approach is probably better suited to fun punts than serious backing. But that's up to you. (In fact, obviously, it's up to whether or not you completely ignore what I'm about to write!)

OK, so here we go:

Months: October and November only
Odds: 2/1 to 25/1
Trainer strike rate last 14 days: 10% or higher
Race Class: 4 - 7 (fitness usually / often beats class at this level)
UK National Hunt only

That's it.

Whilst you'd have made a negligible profit at SP, the big odds that some of these win at (95 winners at 11/1 to 25/1 since 2008) mean you can often get double the SP on Betfair.

The overall figures, to Massey's estimated Betfair odds*, show a profit of 672 points since 2008! That's October, November, 2008 and 2009, plus the first ten days of this month...

*Now, to be clear, I checked a couple of these estimated Betfair odds, and they aligned closely with the Betfair SP. I can't vouch for all runners and prices quoted. So in the interests of total transparency, I can tell you that the returns at industry (i.e. bookie) SP were a profit of 15 points (or 0.5% ROI).

So the system just about breaks even at SP, but with lots of double digit winners in there, Betfair prospectors may very well cash in!

I can feel those doldrums lifting already... 🙂

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
18 replies
  1. Mike says:

    It seems a little back-fitted Matt. Say the forecast in the RP is 7/4 and the bookies open up at that price. It’s a no-bet for people off to work. Then there’s no confidence on-course and it drifts to 9/2 but still somehow manages to win. We haven’t bet it, but it counts in the profit figures…..???

    Good luck though

    Mike

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Mike

      I think you’re making two different points here, as follows:

      1. Back fitted. If there’s logic underpinning the selections then it’s not back fitted in my opinion.
      Odds range avoids ‘no value’ horses and ‘no chance’ horses.
      Race Class accounts for those races where horses typically do not merely outclass their rivals, 80% fit or otherwise.
      Trainer strike rate is used as a barometer of horse fitness.
      Months selected are based on the accepted race code changeover window.
      So no, I don’t think it’s back fitted. To illustrate that, the strike rate going back to 1996 remains constant at over 13% and the total profit in those 14 years at the same estimated Betfair odds is 1723 points. 🙂

      2. People at work can’t get bets on as they can’t track the live markets. Usability is a separate issue to profitability, and bots have supported the user element massively.
      Actually, from a usability perspective I see two more pertinent issues:

      a) lots of selections
      b) how do you establish trainer strike rate in the last fourteen days without clicking every trainer?

      Again a) can be answered with a bot capable of following the live shows. b) however is something that I’ve yet to find a tidy solution to. Does anybody have any ideas?

      Matt

  2. Michael says:

    Hello Matt , don’t you have some gardening to do while there is uninteresting racing ? Dermot Weld thinks he can take the Melbourne Cup home again with Profound Beauty ,we shall see about that . There was a horse running last Saturday at Kembla Grange ( New South Wales country track ) called Bizogno .It was a slow track and he ran about 5th. or 6th. You must have some fans here who don’t know how to spell your name ?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Michael

      Gardening? Not me mate!

      Re Melbourne Cup, I’ve been reading your updates with interest, and there’s some on the blog here too. I hear Cumani’s have settled in well.

      As for the horse called Bizogno, that’s alarming! (And obviously I’m now going to have to find a way to bet it every time it runs…!)

      Matt

  3. Colin says:

    Re para 3 if winners are hard to find why not lay some horses to lose instead?
    Simples!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Haha, probably not quite as simples as that, Colin.

      Incidentally, isn’t it a stroke of marketing genius that someone put an ‘s’ on the end of ‘simple’ and created a catch phrase?! (No? Oh, OK, just me then…)

      Matt

  4. Simon says:

    Re: trainer strike rate in the last fourteen days

    Does the Today’s Hot Trainers section on the Sporting Life website (under Stats) help? Not exactly 14 days I don’t think but may be a decent proxy.

    I’m not very familiar with the RP website unfortunately.

  5. Simon says:

    You know, it sort of works all year round if you focus on:
    16/1 to 50/1,
    No Class 7,
    min 10 runners,
    Males in MIxed Female and Male races only

    Minute strike rate (3.2%!) but apparently profitable according to AM’s extimated BF prices.

    Now THAT’s a backfitted system!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Haha, remember to only bet on a day with an ‘S’ in it too, Simon! 😉

      Matt

  6. Dave Fretwell says:

    If you use the Racing post site and click on the race card, there is a stats button at the bottom and this will give you the percentage for each trainer in the race you are looking at.

  7. David says:

    matt
    you could use the trainers report in HRB
    also set up a system slot to let you know the days qualifiers
    david

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks David – I did actually chat on email to Chris at HRB today with a view to understanding that. Apparently, the whole system (less the odds parameter) can be set up in there, so that’s something I’ll be investigating.

      Best,
      Matt

  8. Daniel Legg says:

    This system too long winded for me, but the FREE system you get when you sign up (chasers april-november) now that looks interesting, unfortuantly i only got it with about 1 month left to go!!!

    but two selections ive had with it so far and one winner at 12/1 and a second but at only 6/5. you have to be patient, no selections in the last 4 days. Keep track of it on my blog if you like

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Daniel

      Firstly, there’s only four criteria for the free system so it’s hardly labour intensive (though I accept finding the strike rate may take a little legwork if you’re not using HRB).

      As for the Chase Outsiders system, you really ought to ask permission before placing things on your site and passing them off as your own. You’re not the first, and doubtless you won’t be the last to fail to reference the work of others! I guess imitation is the sincerest form of flattery… 😉

      Matt

  9. Andy Haywood says:

    Hi All,
    A while ago back in july there was a debate about Dreamlays, i would just like to state that Dreamlays, its lay time and free profits are all run by the same person, and they have all at one point scraped their services and started again, i joined itslaytime.com back in 2007 the results that they showed at the time were fake, and it just went from bad to worse, and in 2010 they deleted everything and they started fresh, and it wont be long before it all goes t*** up again, i believe that people should be warned about this…i would just like to give people out there some free advice; it wont take much to make up your own system it takes time and will save you a whole bunch of money in the long run, i have made my own football system for this season and its going great so far!
    Andy

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Andy for the insight. I heard a number of people suggest the services were the same / similar and that was mentioned at the time. Dream Lays does take on some big priced horses, and this leaves it open to painful reverses. I think most Geegeez readers were put off by the odds that they were being asked to lay at.

      Personal system research is definitely the best way forward, which is why I produced Horse Racing Experts! 🙂

      Best,
      Matt

Comments are closed.