Free Horse Racing Betting System

I've got a free horse racing betting system for you today, dear reader, and it's a cracker.

In fact, it is an updated version of a free horse racing betting system I gave away last year as part of a promotion I was doing then. Bizarrely, at that time (mid-October), the seasonal shelf life of the product was drawing to a close.

However, gratifyingly, it was still well worth following, as first The Last Derby scored at 33/1, and then Justwhateverulike followed up a week later at 16/1.

These results were no surprise as that's exactly the kind of horse that pops up year in, year out, with this fun little system.

Anyway, I'm feeling a tad under the weather today so I thought I'd give you this in lieu of actually writing anything. Hope you don't mind! 😉

>>>>Free Horse Racing Betting System<<<<

Best,

Matt

p.s. perversely maybe, it's a jumps system for use between now and November, when most people are betting on the flat...

Your first 30 days for just £1
23 replies
  1. Arthur Judge says:

    Hope you feel better soon m8, we need your prose to continue unabaited, try a large malt whiskey, always works for me lol

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Arthur – very kind. I suspect it might have something to do with the whiskey variant that got me where I am in the first place!
      Matt

  2. colin says:

    Great long term slow burner!

    It looks as though place betting is break even at best, but I applied the following staking and applied to only the 2009 results. When a few minutes will go back

    Using a bank of £500 and betting 2% – i.e. the same £10 starter as you, increasing stakes after a winner but NOT after a loser, the bank at S,P on level stakes increased by about £700 (your figures) while the staking gave an increase of £1520 – using bookies money to increase the stakes

    I will also test a genuine fluctuating strike rate system too

    2009 was near enough to be typical in its results as to the whole period

    110 selections
    12 winners
    10.9%
    average odds 15

    I have only done a quick one time run through without check but they are so near to the average as to be probably right.

    Great fun

    Colin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Interesting stuff Colin – thanks.

      I don’t really have too much time to take these ‘fun system’ ideas and work with staking plans. The problem is that there can be very long losing runs, as one would expect betting at these odds. But I’ll be very interested to read any further analysis you might produce.

      As such, I always tend to think of them as fun, and back them for a tenner or a fiver or whatever. The beauty with this one, aside from relatively consistent big-priced winners, is that it’s very easy to find out if there are qualifiers in about two minutes each day, using any newspaper.

      Best,
      Matt

  3. karen says:

    matt have u tried that hcap system with irish races? theres always more runners over there…

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Karen

      I don’t have the data for the Irish meetings alas. I ran something very similar through Raceform Interactive, and it didn’t perform so well. I suspect that’s because Summer jumps racing in Ireland is much more competitive than it is here in UK.

      Matt

  4. colin says:

    Ooooops!

    If I had invested my £500 pension at the start, used my staking plan, by early 2007 I would have had £38,000

    Had I continued to the end of 2009 I would still have the £38, 000 (almost) but would have had to prop up the bank to the tune of som £28,000 during a particularly nasty period soon after.
    This follows the level stake scenarion where the profit peaked at £3600 in 2007 but ended up slightly down on that.
    2009 was individually a good year as were the early years, so like all these things, if you kick off with an early winner or two great, but start at the peak in 2007 and at the end of 2009, standing still at level stakes.

    The only way with the staking plan is to keep on taking your winnings out.

    I have enjoyed the excercise – and being brought back down to earth with the curse of the llr.

    I still think its a great system, but for fun and at the joy of seing a 66/1 winner! The cycle might be right to start now and get out when some profit accrues

  5. david montague says:

    What matt you want me to get up, get dressed…leave the house…wow thats way to much work for a stay at home entrepreneau-and buy a what??…

    “NEWSPAPER”…I though they were things you bought as a habit along with fags…on the way to a Just Over Broke!!…

    Oh well could ask the cleaner to pick one up…I suppose!!…

    Keep up the great work man…dave m.

  6. Gary says:

    Thanks for the freebie, will hopefully put this to test when the races qualify.

    Thanks again, just waiting for a tip or 2 for this weekends big races

    Gary

  7. Simon says:

    Greetings Matt, do your stats tell you if LAYING the top weights (in a certain price range) for the same sub-class of Handicap Chases is profitable?

    Using Adrian Massey (a blunter tool than the systems you use I’m sure) it seems that you can replicate a decent proxy of the backing system (you can’t specify rank of weight just number of lbs carried above/below race average) — so I thought I’d have a go in seeing if we can lay successfully.

    Bearing in mind I cannot replicate your stats exactly, I had a monkey around with the Massey settings and found something that since 2004 produces an 8.7% win rate for backers and returns a measly 74.1% of your money (to the estimated Betfair odds) — so should be good for layers.

    I kept to your rules with a few adjustments:

    Min ten runners
    Handicap Chase only
    Apr – Oct (not November)
    At least 11lb More than race ave (only weight parameter the Massey website allows)
    Price range 6/4 – 14/1 (don’t want to be laying over that)
    Going: Not heavy or soft

    That’s it.

    2004 saw a profit for backers (as does 2010 so far) but every other year has seen backers lose between 9% to 48% of their money to Betfair prices (excl any commission).

    There’s an element of “backfitting” to this and I’m sure there will be readers with more experience and better software who can come up with something more reliable (and point out the flaws) — but at the least while we’re all scouring the cards this summer for low weights to back we might also be able to find a nag lugging lots around we fancy to lay at a short(ish) price as well!

    Kindest regards, Simon

  8. the highlander says:

    i think, i owe, you ,one cought tie up pompay to day,folling the adivice given ,don back horses that have run at cheltnham. nice one i wanted to back that faret.

  9. the highlander says:

    it the ccampaine ,its mine from my vine yarde .i ment to say favret,its harde worke man.

  10. John Cobb says:

    Hi Matt,

    Thanks for updating the figures on this brilliant little system.

    I have a question: I was looking thru the data a few weeks ago and I was checking for whether Novice Hcp Chases were included (They are). I was using the results search in the Racing Post and in the process I noticed that :
    27/6/08 Mkt Rasen 3.50 Abutilon wt 9-12 Jockey 3lb allowance = 10-1
    27/6/08 Mkt Rasen 4.25 Little Shilling wt wt 9-10 Jockey 5lb allowance = 10-1

    A bit confusing when the race card gives one wt and the results card another. Is this normal? It makes it difficult when looking at past results to know which data is correct. (You’ll probably say both are!) A cursory look at the results card would have told me the horses didnt qualify.

    Great system, will follow forever now! Still relishing The Last Derby at Ascot last October! £2 @ 70 on betfair, what a cracker!!

    Thanks John

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi John

      I’m pretty sure I specifically touched on this point in the pdf, but I’ll reiterate here: jockey’s claim is irrelevant. It’s the handicap weight the horses is scheduled to carry that is material.

      I definitely agree that the results search should be consistent with the racecard, but that’s beyond my sphere of control!

      Best,
      Matt

  11. GM says:

    Why don’t you include the latest results of your Best Systems (currently 4, 2 of which are yours!) in this blog?
    I was thinking of buying the FP method, but one thing puts me off: Betfair’s liquidity – there is only so much money in these markets, so wouldn’t a system that 1000’s are using just drain the betting pool eventually, causing it to fail? Nothing lasts for ever – horseracing has been going for over 200 years, so where are all the winning systems from the past?
    Besides, who in their right mind would SELL a successful method? Sell the golden eggs, yes, but not the goose!
    The LS Trader system you also recommend could be the way to go; no worries about liquidity there! They made 100% profit in 2007, 1500% in 2008, lost 50% in 2009, and so far in 2008…?

  12. Tony MC: says:

    just got home from ‘Hossy’, checked e-mails…Great i thought, a nice little system to while away some bedtime hours….
    Opened system pointer and………nothing was there…lol.
    What has happened. or can someone else enlighten me whilst
    shouting ooh! argh!.
    ta la.

  13. Martin says:

    Hi Matt

    Is this system to be followed blindly in the face of obvious no-hopers?

    For example Ede’s in tomorrows 6.30 at Huntingdon has a poor spotlight comment and plenty of ? and X in the Postdata.
    Does the subsequent low weight account for this and hence give the beast a chance, or should some common sense be applied?

    Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Martin

      Yes, we follow this system over a cliff! It gives us 66/1 winners (which of course look like no-hopers in the paper).

      To clarify, we’re only expecting a 10% strike rate, so expect long losing runs. But there are plenty of winners as well (all stats in the guide itself).

      Ede’s is of interest for the system, but that doesn’t preclude him tailing off and pulling up!

      Best,
      Matt

  14. Martin says:

    Hi again

    Is there any reason why this shouldn’t work with Irish racing?

    Martin

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