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Stat of the Day, 24th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

6.50 Chelmsford : Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on towards finish, beaten 1 1/4 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 2yo over 7f on Standard ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

A Premier League trainer and Championship-seeking jockey partner up for today's Stat of the Day.

Fashion Free, the filly in question, is having her second start in a handicap. She ran extremely well from stall 13 (car park) at Pontefract on 'cap bow, finishing third, and might have won with a kinder draw. But that's form rather than stats.

The key stat is Oisin Murphy riding for Archie Watson.

In the last year, they've combined 88 times for 21 wins (24%, +16.44) and 44 places (50%). That has an IV of 2.29 (more than twice as likely to win together than the average). At Lingfield in the past five years, this A Team is 11 from 32 (34.38%, +9.31, A/E 1.25, IV 2.88).

Archie has a 19% hit rate second time in a handicap (A/E 1.2, IV 1.83) and his recent form has been very good: better than first appearance.

Specifically, a rate of 7 from 43 in the past fortnight is reasonable rather than exciting. But that masks a huge 51% place rate, suggesting Team Watson is in great form but suffering that 'orrible variance thing.

Down a grade and up a furlong both look positives...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG as was available at 6pm on Tuesday with skybet. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd July 2019

Monday's pick was...

2.30 Ayr : Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up, effort when no room from over 2f out to inside final furlong, kept on last 100yds, nearest finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.50 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Standard ground worth £5693 to the winner...

Why?...

Cantiniere is a Godolphin runner having her second start in a UK handicap. She's trained by Saeed bin Suroor, who is in excellent form at the moment. Indeed his form reads:

Last 14 days: 5 wins, 3 more places from 18 runners (28% win, +0.76, A/E 1.21, IV 2.49 - 2.5 times as likely to have a winner than the norm)
Last 30 days: 14 wins, 6 more places from 44 runners (32% win, +18.18, A/E 1.3, IV 2.94)

bin Suroor also has a 30.57% five year win record at the track.

With second time handicap starters (this filly strictly isn't, but she had an abortive effort in Meydan), he is 14/56 (25%)

Hayley Turner gets the ride and the pairing have an excellent record together. In the last year, they've won 7 from 21 (33%, 6 more placed) when teaming up (+7.87, A/E 1.06, IV 3.2).

Cantiniere's sire, War Front, is a bit of an all weather, erm, stud. He's got a 20% win record in the last two years on the artificial surfaces (40 from 200).

Positive stats for trainer, jockey and sire...

...give us... a 1pt win bet on Cantiniere @ 5/1 BOG as was available at 6.00pm on Monday with Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.45 Market Rasen : Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG non-runner

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good ground worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 2113 in his last four starts, with both wins coming at Class 6 and the two defeats at Class 5 and he now drops back in class again.

His trainer David O'Meara has enjoyed consistent success at this venue, notching up 43 winners from 239 (18% SR) handicappers here over the past 8 seasons, generating level stakes profits of 45.2pts at an ROI of 18.9% and these 239 runners include of relevance today...

  • 37/131 (28.2%) for 55.6pts (+42.5%) at odds of 7/4 to 15/2
  • 36/187 (19.25%) for 61.8pts (+33%) after a break of 4-30 days
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 67.7pts (+112.8%) dropping down a class
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 17.9pts (+30.3%) finished 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 10/51 (19.6%) for 27.3pts (+53.5%) over the last two seasons
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 22.3pts (+76.9%) ridden by David Nolan
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.9pts (+123%) over this 5f C&D
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 14.75pts (+54.6%) at Class 6

...whilst simply backing class droppers reappearing 4-45 days after their last run and sent off at 7/4 to 15/2 over the last five seasons would give you 11 winners from 26 (42.3% SR) for 35.6pts (+136.8% ROI), including 3 from 6 under David Nolan...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Solution @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.25pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.50 Nottingham : Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Close up, ridden 2f out, stayed on towards finish

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m1f on Good ground worth £4549 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding seems to have been revitalised since moving to Fergal O'Brien's yard, finishing 11131 in his five runs for his new handler, all over hurdles under today's jockey Max Kendrick over trips ranging from 2m to 2m4.5f, including 2 wins from 2 at Class 4.

His last run/win was just a week ago at Newton Abbot and his quick reappearance is no surprise as Fergal's runners sent back out 1-7 days after their last run are 7 from 20 (35% SR) for 7.75pts (+38.7% ROI) when sent off at odds shorter than 8/1 since the start of 2016.

Not admittedly the largest dataset I've brought you, but there are so many subsets at play today that this seems more than coincidental as from the 7/20 record, those horses are...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 3.18pts (+17.7%) from male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 9.61pts (+68.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 5.33pts (+38.1%) on ground quicker than good to soft
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 13.42pts (+122%) at trips up to 2m5f
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.91pts (+117.4%) in the second half of the calendar year
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.91pts (+139.1%) at Class 4
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 15.45pts (+220.7%) at 16-60 days since their second to last outing
  • 3/4 (75%) for 8.85pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.83pts (+91.5%) with Max Kendrick in the saddle...

...enough, in my opinion, to warrant... a 1pt win bet on Global Tour @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.55pm on Friday, although SkyBet stood out with an extra third of a point, if you can get on there. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 20th July 2019

This Saturday the LIVE ITV TV races come from Newmarket, Market Rasen & Newbury.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with the key trends and stats – use these to find the best profiles of past winners of each race.

Saturday 20th July 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Ric And Mary Hambro Aphrodite Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV3

14/15 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/15 - Winning favourite
5/15 – Ran at Haydock last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
Worth Waiting (4/1) won the race in 2018

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – bet365 Stakes (Registered as The Steventon Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV3

10/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or  more
8/14 – Had run at the track before
9/14 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Had won a Group race before
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 9 runnings

2.25 – Marsh Cup Cl2 (3yo+) 2m ½f ITV3

Your first 30 days for just £1

Just one previous  running
Stratum (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018
Sir Michael Stoute has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Mick Channon is just 1 from 31 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

3.00 – bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f8y ITV3

14/15 – Won over 6f before
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
6/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/15 – Had won a Group race before
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winners from stall 8
2/15 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 4)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 12 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting


3.40 - Weatherbys Super Sprint (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 5f34y ITV3

14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Won 1-2 times before
10/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/15 – Won by a Feb or March foal
8/15 – Irish bred winners
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Won by a filly
6/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
3/15 – Winners from stall 1
4/15 – Winning favourites
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2013, 2015 and 2017

 

Market Rasen Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.10 – Betway Summer Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV3

14/17 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
13/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/17 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/17 – Had run at Market Rasen before
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/17 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 12 winners carried 11-5 or less
8 of the last 13 winners carried 11-0 or less
8 of the last 13 winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
L’Inganno Felice (8/1) won the race in 2018

3.20 – Betway Summer Plate (Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m6f110y ITV3

17/17 – Had run within the last 3 months
15/17 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
15/17 – Aged 7 or older
13/17 – Had won 2 or more chases before
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Had run at Market Rasen before
10/17 – Won their previous race
6/17 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/17 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/17 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 8)
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
9 of the last 11 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
More Buck’s won the race in 2018

 

 

 

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 19th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

5.15 Hamilton : Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run inside final 2f, ridden and stayed on inside final furlong, just held towards finish

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm (good in places) ground worth £3234 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where there are question marks about most of the runners, the form option is our 4 yr old filly, who has finished 2221 in her last four outings over the past 10 weeks or so. All were at Class 6, three over this 6f trip plus a spin over 7f and all in big fields (3 x 13-runners and 1 x 15), so conditions won't be alien to her.

Despite here recent good form, she's still only 2lbs higher in the weights than at the start of the run that culminated in a win over 6f at Hamilton last time out, taking her record on the Flat to 3 wins and 4 other places from 13 runs and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 3 places from 10 on a straight track
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 8 on Good/Good to Firm ground
  • 1 win and 2 places from 4 in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 at Class 6
  • 1 win and 1 place from 4 on Good to Firm
  • finished as runner-up over course and distance on only previous visit to Nottingham

She is trained by Les Eyre, whose runners are 4/17 (23.5% SR) for 20.76pts (+122.1% ROI) here over the last 5 seasons, from which the following angles are at play today...

  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 24.76pts (+190.5%) after a break of less than 40 days
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26.76pts (+243.3%) at the same class as LTO
  • 3/10 (30%) for 15.02pts (+150.2%) on Good to Firm ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 18.36pts (+262.3%) in fields of 11-14 runners
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 12.09pts (+201.6%) at Class 6
  • 2/5 (40%) for 7.62pts (+152.4%) at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 11.67pts (+233.4%) at the same distance as LTO
  • and 1/1 in July

...whilst those running on good to firm ground at the same class as their LTO run less than 40 days earlier are 3 from 6 950% SR) for 19.02pts (+317% ROI).

In addition to the above, it's also worth noting that Les Eyre's LTO winners who were subsequently sent off at 7/1 and shorter over a 6f trip less than 40 days later are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.06pts (+175.7% ROI) on the Flat (all in handicaps), including 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 9.84pts (+246%) on good to firm ground...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Queen of Kalahari @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.50 Uttoxeter : Dutch Canyon @ 9/2 BOG PU at 9/2 (Led until before 3rd, not fluent next, weakened before 13th, pulled up before 4 out

Thursday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Hamilton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Good to Firm ground worth £3493 to the winner...

Why?...

Keeping it simple again this morning with a 7 yr old gelding trained by Rebecca Bastiman, whose overall record is decent here at Hamilton with 11 winners from 75 (14.7% SR) generating profits of 52.1pts at an ROI of 69.5%. That's from blind betting and is actually far better than just decent.

I appreciate you might not want to blanket bet a certain trainer, so based on the above figures, the following angles are at play today...

  • 11/69 (15.9%) for 58.1pts (+84.2%) from males
  • 11/67 (16.4%) for 60.1pts (+89.7%) from 3-7 yr olds
  • 10/73 (13.5%) for 39.6pts (+53.6%) in handicaps
  • 10/54 (18.5%) for 59.6pts (+110.4%) during 2017-19
  • 7/48 (14.6%) for 48.75pts (+101.6%) during May-July
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 20.3pts (+67.7%) at odds of 11/4 to 8/1
  • and 5/27 (18.5%) for 62.8pts (+232.6%) over trips of 8½ to 9f

...from which... Rebecca Bastiman's 3-7 yr old males sent off at odds of 11/4 to 8/1 in Hamilton handicaps during May-July of 2017-19 are 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 20.02pts (+117.7% ROI) including 3 winners from 6 (50%) for 21.17pts (+352.8%) over trips of 8½ to 9f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Be Bold @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 1.00am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Hamilton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

5.15 Beverley : Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG WON at 9/2 (Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, ran on to lead last strides

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dutch Canyon @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground worth £2989 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back Class 5 chase wins at Hexham & Cartmel, 32 and 19 days ago respectively, both over trips of 3m½f  to 3m1½f under today's jockey Sam Coltherd who again claims 3lbs.

The Hexham run was his yard debut  as he defied a 301 day absence and although now 4lbs higher than LTO, I think he's still ahead of the assessor and the drop back in trip will help.

He is trained by Stuart Coltherd, one of the trainers I look out for in an angle I blandly named "Summer Chases". The basic premise is that in UK NH handicap chases during May to August, Stuart's runners are 8 from 36 (22.2% SR) for 14.01pts (+38.9% ROI) over the last four "summers" (it might be warm now, but I use the term loosely).

36 runners isn't a huge dataset, but certain angles crop up too regularly for them to be just chance or coincidence, as the 8/36 includes...

  • 8/32 (25%) for 18.01pts (+56.3%) from males
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 20.01pts (+66.7%) in races worth less than £6,000
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.21pts (+88.4%) at 11-25 days since last run
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 12.32pts (+53.6%) at odds of 9/4 to 5/1
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 0.28pts (+0.95%) ridden by Sam Coltherd
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.97pts (+81.7%) at Class 5
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 5.77pts (+32.1%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 14.28pts (+129.8%) at 3m½f  to 3m1½f
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.06pts (+67.2%) in 2019
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 1.22pts (+15.3%) from LTO winners

...whilst males ridden by Sam and sent off at 5/1 or shorter in a race worth less than £6k, some 11-25 days after they last ran  = 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 15.48pts (+171.9% ROI) and these include 4/7 at Class 5, 4/7 at 3m½f  to 3m1½f, 3/5 from 8/9 yr olds, 2/3 from LTO winners and 2/2 in 2019...

...and those racing 3m½f  to 3m1½f at Class 5 are 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 14.48pts (+241.4%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dutch Canyon @ 6/1 BOG as offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.35pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2019

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Hats Off To Larry @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 7/4 (Chased leading pair, 2nd on inside 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Keeping it very simple today with an 8 yr old gelding who'll hope fully find conditions suit him, as of his 5 Flat wins to date...

  • all 5 were at odds shorter than 6/1
  • 4 came when wearing cheekpieces
  • 4 in June/July
  • 3 on Good to Firm
  • 3 at Class 6
  • and 3 after a short break of 8-15 days

His trainer, Karen Tutty has a decent record here of late with 6 winners from 36 (16.6% SR) in handicaps over the last three seasons generating 42.4pts at an ROI of some 117.7%, from which...

  • after less than 3 weeks rest : 6/26 (23.1%) for 52.4pts (+201.5%)
  • males : 5/29 (17.2%) for 44.2pts (+152.5%)
  • on Good to firm : 4/19 (21.1%) for 32.4pts (+170.5%)
  • in July : 3/10 (30%) for 11.13pts (+111.3%)
  • and at 7/1 or shorter : 3/9 (33.3%) for 12.13pts (+134.7%)

...with males turned back out less than 3 weeks after their last run winning 5 of 23 (21.7% SR) for 50.2pts (+218.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Thorntoun Care @ 9/2 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th July 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.50 Salisbury : El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, soon weakened

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £5208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a decent fifth of ten in a far better contest than this last time out. He was only two lengths off the pace that day at Sandown 10 days ago and now drops two classes and run off a mark eased by two pounds today.

He currently has a good record in Flat handicaps, having fur wins and three places from twelve efforts and with today's contest in mind, those runs include...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 over trips of 8.5 to 10.5 furlongs
  • 4 wins from 6 on tracks deemed as "flat"
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 8 after a break of 8 to 28 days
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 6 at Class 4
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 5 in fields of 8 runners or less
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at this 1m2f trip
  • 2 wins from 4 on Good to Firm ground
  • 2 wins from 2 here at Windsor
  • 2 wins from 2 in Class 4 races worth less than £6,000
  • and 2 wins from 2 over course and distance

No disrespect intended to Nicola Currie, who not only rode the horse very well last time out, but is also certainly a fine, talented jockey overall, but the booking of Oisin Murphy today is a positive move to me, as he has already ridden 11 winners from 40 (27.5% SR) in handicaps on this track this season with a 1pt level stake bet on each of the 40 generating 19.04pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% and those 40 rides include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 26.04pts (+78.9%) at classes 3 to 5
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 31.33pts (+142.4%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 16.07pts (+59.5%) on male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 26.29pts (+146.1%) over trips of 10 to 11.5 furlongs
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 3.28pts (+21.9%) at Class 4
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.08pts (+89.8%) over this 1m2f course and distance...

...whilst on male runners in fields of 7-11 at Classes 3 to 5 over trips of 10 to 11,5 furlongs, Oisin is 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 21.9pts (+243.4% ROI), including 4 from 7 over this 1m2f C&D, 3 from 6 at Class 4 and 3 from 5 (60%) for 7.19pts (+143.8%) over course and distance at Class 4.

Oisin doesn't get to ride many of trainer Mick Channon's horses and I'd guess that's down to other contractual obligations on both sides,because it's certainly not down to a lack of success, as since 2015, the duo are 7 from 15 (46.7% SR) for 44.8pts (+298.9% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 12/1 and this includes 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 35.4pts (+392.8%) in handicaps...

...which all points towards... a 1pt win bet on Hats Off To Larry@ 11/4 BOG as offered by Bet365 & Skybet at 6.40pm on Sunday, although better on a non-BOG basis was available. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.10 Ffos Las : Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/4 (Tracked clear leader, close up after 5 out, led going well approaching 2 out, shaken up and good jump last, ridden clear flat, stayed on well

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.50 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Firm/Good to Firm ground worth £3806 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding won last time out under today's jockey Levi Williams, who'll be hoping to put his 7lb claim to good effect again today. That recent win was 13 days ago at Windsor when staying on best over 1m3.5f and although he has an extra 100 or so yards to go today whilst carrying an extra 2lbs, he does take a drop in class to run here.

He has won 3 times from 11 in Flat handicaps so far, making the frame on two other occasions and of these 11 runs, he has...

  • 3 wins and a place from 5 on a flat track
  • 2 wins and a place from 6 at class 5
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm ground
  • a win and a place from 2 here at Salisbury
  • 1 from 2 under Levi Williams
  • and 1 from 1 in July

His trainer, Simon Dow has a good record at getting horses to win consecutive races, as his LTO winners are 21/93 (22.6% SR) for 54.8pts (+59% ROI) in handicaps since 2014 and these include...

  • 19/79 (24%) for 54.8pts (+69.3%) from male runners
  • 17/61 (27.9%) for 61.6pts (+101%) over trips of 7 to 13.5 furlongs
  • 15/45 (33.3%) for 24.8pts (+55%) at odds of 11/2 and shorter
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 21.2pts (+70.5%) at Class 5

...from which...males racing over 7 to 13.5 furlongs at odds shorter than 6/1 are 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 25.5pts (+110.9% ROI), including 3 from 5 (60%) for 8.88pts (+177.6%) at Class 5...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on El Borracho @ 4/1 BOG as offered by more than half a dozen firms at 6.40pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 13th July 2019

It’s the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting this Saturday and the ITV cameras are there to take in the best of the action, plus they are also at York and Ascot on what is a bumper Saturday of flat horse racing.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends and stats – use these to find the best profiles of past winners of each race.

Saturday 13th July 2019

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/17 – Had won over 7f or further previously
13/17 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
10/17 – Unplaced in their last race
10/17 – Favourites unplaced
9/17 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
3/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Winning Favourites
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1


2.55 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Won over at least 6f previously
15/17 – Placed in their last race
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
12/17 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/17 – Won their latest race
11/17 – Won by either a March or April foal
9/17 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
7/17 – Favourites unplaced
4/17 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/17 – Winners from stall 3
4/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/17 – Winning Favourites
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

3.30 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

16/17 – Won over 7f previously
16/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
13/17 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
11/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
10/17 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
9/17 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
8/17 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/17 – Placed in their last race
4/17 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
Burnt Sugar won the race in 2018
Above The Rest won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

4.40 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2018     U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011  Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010  Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009  Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008  Marchand d'Or  (5/2 fav)
2007  Sakhee's Secret  (9/2)
2006  Les Arcs (10/1)
2005  Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004  Frizzante (14/1)
2003  Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002  Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

Your first 30 days for just £1

16/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
14/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/17 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
13/17 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/17 – Placed last time out
9/17 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Irish-trained winners
2/17 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/17 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 4 times before (1999, 2001, 2010 & 2018)

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 - John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Won over 5f before
8/8 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/8 – Rated between 101 and 111
7/8 – Placed favourites
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Had only won at Handicap class before
5/8 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/8 – Won by a neck or less
5/8 – Won at York before
3/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/8 – Ridden by David Allen
Mr Lupton won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 13/2

2.40 - John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f ITV

13/13 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
12/13 – Aged 5 or younger
12/13 – Won from stall 10 or lower
10/13 – Didn’t win their previous race
9/13 – Placed favourites
7/13 – Aged 4 years-old
6/13 – Had run at York before
5/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/13 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
3/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Dylan Mouth won the race in 2018

3.15 - John Smith´s Racing Handicap Cl2 1m ITV

15/15 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
14/15 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
11/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/15 – Rated 90 or less
10/15 – Placed last time out
9/15 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
8/15 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Won by a USA-bred horse
4/15 – Had raced at York before
4/15 – Winning favourites
Trainer David O'Meara has won 2 of the last 7 runnings
11 of the last 13 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2 or 3
Wadilsafa won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

3.50 – John Smith´s Jubilee Cup Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners.......

2018 – Euchen Glen (20/1) Jim Goldie
2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 -  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

16/17 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or higher
13/17 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
11/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/17 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 99-105
8/17 – Had run at York before
5/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/17 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.45 – Betfred Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

Just 6 previous running
5/6 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
5/6 – Carried 8-10 or more
5/6 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
2/6 – Aged 4 years-old
Danzeno won the race in 2017
Spring Loaded won the race in 2018

4.00 - Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV

12/12 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/12 – Had won over at least a mile before
10/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
9/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
7/12 – Previous Group race winner
7/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/12 – Aged 4 years-old
5/12 – Won last time out
4/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/12 – Had won a Group 1 before
9 of the last 10 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Beat The Bank won the race in 2018
Mutakayyef  won the race in 2016 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 12th July 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.25 Newmarket : Guildsman @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Mid-division, ridden over 1f out, kept on and no impression

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase  for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm worth £6758 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings and was a comfortable 10-lengths winner last time out when scoring over hurdles on Monday.

He now reverts to chasing, but I've no fears about that, as he's already won over fences this year and he actually had 10 wins and 6 places from 20 runs in point to point contests.

Jockey Connor Brace once again takes the ride and claims his usual 5lbs allowance and he comes here in good nick, having won 3 of his 7 outings over the past week and finishing as a runner-up in two of them, whilst trainer David Brace has also fared well, with three winners from four over the past month.

With just four runners over the past month, it's clear that David hasn't got the largest string of horses at his disposal. In fact, since the start of 2018, he has been represented by just eight different runners (all male), but between them they have won 5 of 28 (17.9% SR) races for level stakes profits of 14.34pts (+51.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.34pts (+164.6%) at odds of 12/1 and shorter
  • 4/21 (19.1%) for 17.39pts (+82.8%) under Connor Brace
  • 4/10 (40%) for 28.39pts (+283.9%) in June/July
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 6.78pts (+96.9%) from 8 yr olds
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.78pts (+129.7%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 2/10 (20%) for 7.24pts (+72.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/8 (25%) for 9.24pts (+115.5%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/2 (100%) for 17.91pts (+895.5%) in July
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 9.94pts (+331.4%) here at Ffos Las...

...and when Connor has ridden one sent off at 12/1 or shorter in June/July : 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 32.39pts (+539.8%) including 2 from 3 on 8 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Pink Eyed Pedro @ 7/2 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 12th July 2019)

The three-day 2019 Newmarket July Meeting continues on Friday (12th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As we move into the second day (Gentleman's Day) the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Cherry Hinton) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes take centre stage - did you know 16 of the last 17 Falmouth Stakes winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

 


Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two,
Friday 12th July 2019


1.50 - bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
9/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
9/12 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/12 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
6/12 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including 5 of last 6 runnings)
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/12 – Winning favourites
Communique (8/1) won the race in 2018

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/15 – Had raced at least twice before
14/15 – Foaled in Feb (6) or March (6)
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Won by a UK-based yard
10/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
10/15 – Had won over 6f before
8/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 3)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
1/15 – Drawn in stall 1
Pretty Pollyanna (20/1) won the race in 2018

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just one previous running
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
The Charlie Appleby yard have a 30% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track
The Mark Johnston yard have a 28% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track
The Andrew Balding yard are just 1 from 33 with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 38% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 22% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

3.35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
16/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17– Won over at least 1 mile previously
13/17 – Won from stall 5 or lower
13/17 – Had 2+ runs that season
12/17 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
10/17 – Favourites placed
7/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/17 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
6/17 – Previous Group One winners
5/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 5)
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/17 – French-trained winners
Alpha Centauri (4/9 fav) won the race in 2018

 

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Newmarket July Meeting Trends: DAY ONE (Thurs 11th July 2019)

The three-day 2019 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (11th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

On day one the Group Two July Stakes and Princess of Wales's Stakes are the key contests - did you know that a 4 year-old has won 9 of the last 12 Princess Of Wales's Stakes?  

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

 


Newmarket July Meeting - Day One,
Thursday 11th July 2019

 

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

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17/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
15/17 – Failed to win last time out
15/17 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
12/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
10/17 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/17 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/17 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
10/17 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 8 runnings)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
2/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Wells Farhh Go (7/1) won the race in 2018

2.25 - Arqana July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Placed in their last run
16/17 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
14/17 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
13/17 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/17 – Won their last race
10/17 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
6/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race
Advertise (11/10) won the race in 2018

3.00 – Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

13/13 – Didn’t win last time out
13/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
13/13 – Had won no more than 3 times before
12/13 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Carried 8-12 or less
10/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/13 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/13 – Unplaced favourites
8/13 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding
4/13 – Ridden by David Probert
0/13 – Winning favourites
Foxtrot Lady (8/1) won the race in 2018

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Arqana Racing Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

15/17 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 9 of last 12)
15/17 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
14/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
13/17 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/17 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
11/17 – Unplaced in their previous race
10/17 – Favourites that were placed
8/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Best Solution (6/1) won the race in 2018

 

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