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Stat of the Day, 16th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.10 Chelmsford : Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway and switched right over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Since the application of blinkers four starts ago, this 3 yr old gelding has enjoyed an upturn in form (and who doesn't want one of those?), finishing 1432 in those races and only beaten by a length over this trip last time when finishing strongly in what looks a stronger contest than today.

That was his first crack at today's trip, but he has already won at this grade over 1m3.5f, so I'd expect another bold effort today.

His jockey today is Rossa Ryan, who comes here in good touch with 9 winners from 46 (19.6% SR) generating 61.8pts (+134.3% ROI) over the last fortnight, including a nice 8/1 winner yesterday (Sunday) at Ffos Las and when riding for today's trainer (Paul Cole) over the last two seasons, Mr Ryan has 7 winners from 29 (24.1% SR) for 36.3pts (+125.2% ROI) profit, including...

  • 6/24 (25%) for 37pts (+154%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.8pts (+109.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 36pts (+257.1%) at Class 5/6
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 36.8pts (+306.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) over trips of 10 to 12 furlongs
  • 2/4 (50%) for 8.6pts (+215%) at Class 6
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 1.54pts (+77%) over this 1m4f trip

...whilst Rossa + Cole + 3yos + C5/6 hcps @ 8/1 max = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15pts (+375% ROI) with 2 winners from 3 at Class 6.

There's a good chance of our pick going off as favourite today, but whilst it's foolish to blindly back favourites, over 30% of them do win, so it's just a case (as ever) of backing the right ones! With that in mind, you could do a lot worse than backing the ones with Rossa Ryan on their backs, as his record on All-Weather favs stands at 25 from 64 (39.1% SR) and a £10 bet on each would have made you £149.30 profit at an ROI of 23.3%, including...

  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 14.33pts (+43.4%) on 2/3 yr olds
  • 12/28 (42.9%) for 15pts (+53.7%) on Polytrack
  • 11/31 (35.5%) for 5.74pts (+18.5%) at Class 6
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 5.91pts (+26.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 3.16pts (+28.7%) in 3yo contests

...whilst on 2/3 yr olds at Class 6 on Polytrack, he is 3/7 (42.9% SR) 5.19pts (+74.1% ROI).

And finally, back to trainer Paul Cole, whose runners are 10 from 53 (18.9% SR) for 111.6pts (+210.6% ROI) over trips of 9.5 to 12 furlongs during the past 12 months and this include of note/relevance today...

  • 7/38 (18.4%) for 56.7pts (+149.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 35pts (+166.8%) over trips of 1m3f to 1m4f
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.6pts (+296.6%) with Rossa Ryan in the saddle
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 31.4pts (+348.7%) at Class 6
  • and 3/12 (25%) for 79.3pts (+661.1%) on the All-Weather...

...and with 3 yr olds winning 4 of 19 (21% SR) for 31.56pts (+166.1% ROI) over trips of 11/12 furlongs...

...I'm happy to place... a 1pt win bet on Celtic Classic @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday with Stoke City's backers Bet365 offering a little bit more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

6.00 Doncaster : Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Broke well, soon steadied and held up, pushed along and progress 2f out, ridden and weakened inside final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  A/W handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finishes 1132 in his four A/W runs to date and was only beaten by a length in a higher grade over this course and distance when last seen seven and a half weeks ago.

His trainer, James Tate has already had a couple of winners this week (wish I had!) and he is 48 from 116 (41.4% SR) for 72.7pts (+62.7% ROI) since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 5/1 or shorter in A/W handicaps over trips shorter than 1m2f, including...

  • 28/62 (45.2%) for 49.6pts (+79.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 24.9pts (+67.3%) during August to October
  • 12/30 (40%) for 23.1pts (+77%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.8pts (+115.5%) from those dropping down a class

...with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) producing 10pts (+143.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford during August to October in 2018/19...

...whilst more generally here at Chelmsford, James' handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter are 19/53 (35.9% SR) for 39.1pts (+73.7% ROI) including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for44.4pts (+111%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+103.5%) this year
  • 9/18 (50%) for 19pts (+105.6%) during August to October
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.2pts (+159.8%) over this 6f course and distance...

...and in 2019 in fields of 6-11 runners, those horses above are 8 from 16 (50% SR) for 25.2pts (+157.7% ROI).

The sharper-eyed amongst you (not sure if many of you actually read my waffle) might notice that both of the above sets of data also apply to James Tate's runner (Attainment) in the 4.30 race here at Chelmsford, too, but of the two for this column...

...I'm going with... a 1pt win bet on Intuitive @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.25pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 14th Sept 2019

Like all big race days we are on hand with the key TV trends this Saturday from Chester and Doncaster, including the William Hill St Leger - the final of the English Classics this turf season.

As always we've  got all the TV trends for you. Use these to find the best profiles of past winners and whittle down the runners.


Saturday 14th September 2019

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – William Hill Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV

16/17 – Carried 8-12 or more
15/17 – Won over 6f before
14/17 – Had run 5 or more times that season
14/17 – Came from a double-figure stall
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
12/17 – Won 4 or more times in their career
12/17 – Run at Doncaster previously
11/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/17 – Unplaced Favourites
8/17 – Placed in their last race
8/17 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 8 of last 11 years)
6/17 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/17 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/17 – Won last time out
A Momentofmadness won the race in 2018
Spring Loaded (12/1) won the race in 2017

2.25 – Hird Rail Group Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

14/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/16 – Run 3 or more times that season
14/16 – Won 3 or more times before
13/16 – Won a Group race previously
13/16 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Won over 7f before
12/16 – Aged 4 or older
10/16 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/16 – Unplaced in their most recent race
7/16 – Placed horses from stall 1
6/16 – Had run at Doncaster before
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 10 runnings

3.00 – Pommery Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

17/18 - Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
15/18 – Favourites placed
15/18 – Had won over 7f before
14/18 – Won by a Feb or March foal
14/18 – Finished third or better last time out
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or t­­he Curragh last time out
8/18 – Raced 3 or more times that season
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Won by Godolphin
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/18 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/18 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/18 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/18 – Winners from stall 1

Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

3.35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV

15/17 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group race before
12/17 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
12/17 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
11/17 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
11/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
10/17 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
9/17 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (6 wins in total)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
2/17 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 8/1

 

 

 

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 13th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.20 Chelmsford : Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led, headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3,  Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £9,338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings, starting with a course and distance win here on Town Moor back in July and culminating in a win under today's jockey, Dan Tudhope, in Class 3 handicap over this trip at Ripon 17 days ago.

This recent run of form boosts his career record to include the following of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 3 places from 9 in fields of 6-8 runners
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 6 over 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 visits to Doncaster
  • and a 1/1 return under today's jockey, Dan Tudhope...

...who has won 13 of 81 (16.1% SR) races at Classes 2 to 4 here at Doncaster over the past four seasons generating profits of 59.6pts at an ROI of 73.6%.

Dan is definitely more active and more well known on the racing scene than trainer Chris Fairhurst, but from a small string of horses he has done well when travelling the 90 minutes south from his Middleham base with 6 winners from 27 (22.2% SR) producing profits of 57.6pts (+213.4% RO) here at Doncaster over the past five seasons, from which...

  • those with less than 3 weeks rest since they last ran are 6/12 (50%) for 72.62pts (+605.2%)
  • 3 to 6 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 26.58pts (+132.9%)
  • those racing in fields of just 4-7 runners are 4/8 (50%) for 21.81pts (+272.6%)
  • those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 3/5 (60%) for 10.03pts (+200.6%)
  • Class 3 runners are 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.89pts (+181.4%)
  • in 2019, they are 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • and those competing for prizes of £8-10k are 2/2 (100%) for 14.89pts (+744.5%)...

...whilst 3-6 yr olds in fields of 4-7 runners after less than 3 weeks rest are 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 22.81pts (+325.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 at sub-7/1 odds, 2/3 this year, 2/2 at Class 3 and 2/2 in races worth £8-10k...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. If you can't get on, there's plenty of 5/1 knocking about too and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Redarna @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 4/1 (Chased leader, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Polytrack worth £5,111 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yo colt got off the mark last time out 36 days ago at Yarmouth, when pulling clear by some four lengths over 5 furlongs, suggesting that today's extra furlong should be within his capability. Winning jockey Pat Cosgrave keeps the ride today after that effort last time.

It's been pretty quiet at trainer Mick Quinn's yard of late with just 11 runners over the last seven weeks, but a return of 3 winners (27.3% SR) and 6.47pts (+58.8% ROI) suggests there are few (if any) problems there. Of that 3/11 return, those runners are 2/8 in handicaps, 2/6 over 6f and 2/4 from his 3 yr olds.

He also doesn't send many out to run on the All-Weather, but since the start of 2017, his Class 5 A/W handicappers are 5 from 32 (15.6% SR) for 56.75pts profit at an ROI of 177.4%. Now that's not a large sample size, of course, but if you consider how he got those five winners, you might think that our pick is well suited/placed to run here today, as from that 5/32 record, they are...

  • 5/25 (20%) for 63.75pts (+255%) on Polytrack
  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 66.75pts (+303.4%) in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 36pts (+300%) from male runners
  • 3/16 (18.75%) for 48.4pts (+302.7%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 23.6pts (+214.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 11.4pts (+557%) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle...

...and males in 9+ runner fields on poly are 4/10 (40% SR) for 37.95pts (+379.5% ROI), including 3/6 (50%) here at Chelmsford, 2/4 (50%) from 3yrs olds and 1/1 (100%) using Pat Cosgrave...

...who himself is in decent touch right now, having ridden 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the last dozen days, including 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 6.1pts (+55.5% ROI) on fancied (ie 4/1 and shorter) runners, from which...

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.7pts (+124.3%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 2/5 (40%) for 4.17pts (+83.4%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 2/5 (40%) for 1.53pts (+30.6%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 7.94pts (+397%) over a 6f trip...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365 at 6.30pm on Wednesday. If you can't get on, there's plenty of 11/4 knocking about and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.00 Catterick : B Fifty Two @ 4/1 3rd at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, effort well over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redarna @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has won six of his last ten outings and comes here seeking a hat-trick after wins over 7f at Ascot in July and then over this very course and distance last month.

Those last two runs/wins have moved his record in Flat handicaps on to a very impressive 8/21 (38.1% SR) for 62.1pts (+295.8% ROI) profit, with the following conditions of relevance today...

  • 8/17 after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 7/14 in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 6/14 at odds shorter than 7/1
  • 6/13 on Good/Good to Soft
  • 5/10 over trips of 7.5/8 furlongs
  • 4/8 in 2019
  • 4/6 wearing cheekpieces
  • 3/12 here at Carlisle
  • 3/9 going right handed
  • 3/6 under jockey James Sullivan
  • 2/5 over course and distance
  • and 1/1 at Class 3 (two starts ago)

...and at sub-7/1 odds in 8-14 runner races on Good/Good to Soft after 1-6 weeks rest, he is 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 25.9pts (+323.9% ROI)...

He is trained by Dianne Sayer, who seems to be on a good run here at Carlisle of late, especially with her handicappers racing over 7-9 furlongs at odds of 7/1 and shorter, as these beasts are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 20.76pts (+296.6% ROI) this year alone including 3/4 (75%) for 12.02pts (+300.5%) from LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat isn't too surprising, though, when you consider that since 2014 at odds of Evens to 7/1, Dianne's handicappers who won LTO are 20 from 65 (30.8% SR) for 15.1pts (+23.2% ROI) profit, from which there are a myriad of profitable/relevant angles at play today : here's just a baker's dozen of them!

  • 17/47 (36.2%) for 24.1pts (+51.3%) from male runners
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 26.8pts (+63.9%) on Good/Good to Soft ground
  • 15/42 (35.7%) for 15.9pts (+37.9%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 9/20 (45%) for 15.16pts (+75.8%) during August to October
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 9.4pts (+40.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 6.72pts (+39.5%) with 1 previous C&D win
  • 7/16 (43.8%) for 6.2pts (+38.8%) won over C&D LTO
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%) at Class 3
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 9.34pts (+66.8%) on the Flat
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.64pts (+180.6%) over 7.5 to 9 furlongs
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.92pts (+110.2%) here at Carlisle
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 6.73pts (+56%) this year
  • and 3 from 6 (50%) for 5.43pts (+90.4%) in September

To form a composite from the above would dilute the dataset too much, but you could consider just backing 5-8 yr old males on Good/Good to Soft ground, as they are 12/20 (60% SR) for 28.9pts (+144.5% ROI), including 3 wins from 4 (75%) for 6.86pts (+171.4%) from those who won over course and distance last time out...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Redarna @ 3/1 BOG as was available from SkyBet along with Betfair/Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.50 Brighton : Long Call @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Slowly away in rear, pushed along over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong, nearest finish)

Tueday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

B Fifty Two @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This "boy" might be 10 yrs old now, so he's probably more of an "old lad", but recent events have suggested there's still plenty of life left in him yet. He has finished in the first three home in each of his last six starts, winning twice (inc LTO 7 days over over this course and distance under today's jockey) and suffering two very narrow defeats along the way.

He's only up 2lbs for his latest effort here, but does drop down a class at a venue he likes. He has certainly been around the block a few times, but he's not averse to picking prize money up, having made the frame in 25 of 83 (30%) of his starts on the Flat : a decent return at this level and includes 9 winners (10.84% SR).

Of note amongst his 9 wins and 16 further places are...

  • 8 + 14 within 30 days of his last run and 6 + 14 in handicaps
  • 6 + 13 with a tongue tie and 6 + 3 going left handed
  • 4 + 10 over a 6f trip and 4 + 1 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 + 6 under jockey Jane Elliott and 2 + 3 here at Catterick
  • and 2 + 3 over course and distance

The above-mentioned jockey Jane Elliott doesn't get too many rides to be honest, but she has done well here at this track winning 5 of 24 (20.8% SR) for 16.5pts (+68.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 27.5pts (+211.5%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.7pts (+78.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 18.6pts (+124%) at Class 6
  • 3/10 (30%) for 20.24 (+202.4%) over this 6f C&D
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 6.26pts (+156.4%) on Good to Firm ground

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps at 10/1 and shorter, Jane is 3/6 (50% SR) for 22.8pts (+380% ROI) here at Catterick, including 2/4 over this 6f C&D and 1/1 on Good to Firm.

And finally, as this horse was a winner LTO just a week ago, you might (or might not, of course) be interested to know that today's trainer Marjorie Fife is 7 from 31 (22.6% SR) for 34.1pts (+110.1% ROI) in Flat handicaps over the last four seasons with LTO winners turned back out after less than three weeks rest and these runners include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 43.5pts (+256.1%) during July to September
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.93pts (+52.8%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 39.2pts (+435.6%) over a 6f trip...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on B Fifty Two @ 4/1 non-BOG until morning as was available from Betfair/Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Doncaster TV Trends: Thursday 12th Sept 2019

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Thursday 12th September 2019


1:50 - British Stallion Studs "Carrie Red" EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f110y ITV4

16/16 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Carried 9-3 or less
13/16 – Placed third or better last time out
13/16 – Rated 74 or higher
12/16 – Had won at least one race before
11/16 – Won by a Feb or Mar-born foal
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
9/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
7/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Had run at Doncaster before
2/16 – Won by the Hannon team
2/16 – Won by the Richard Fahey team
2/16 – Won by the Paul Cole yard

 

2:40 - DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Won no more than 4 times before
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Had run at Doncaster before
9/16 – Previous Group winners
7/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
6/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Won the Lilly Langtry (Goodwood) that season
4/16 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race

3:15 - Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y ITV4

14/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/15 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/15 – Yet to win over 7f
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times
10/15 – Won from a double-figure stall
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/15 – Raced at York last time out
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Foaled in Jan or Feb
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey (including 2 or the last 5 runnings)
2/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/15 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/15 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/15 – Won by a filly
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2009)
10 of the last 12 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight

3.45 – William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

16/17 – Had 1 or 2 previous career wins
15/17 – Had won over 7f before
15/17 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
15/17 – Won by a Feb, Mar or April foal
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/17 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
10 of the last 13 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has only won the race once (2018)

 

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Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 13th Sept 2019

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Friday 13th September 2019

 

1.50 - Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f ITV4

14/16 – Never raced at Doncaster before
12/16 – Won between 1-3 times before
12/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
10/16 – Had won over 7f before
8/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
8/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Hills stable
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/16 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
0/16 – Winners from stall 1 or 2

 

2:40 – William Hill Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

16/16 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Had won at least twice before
13/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
12/16 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
12/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
10/16 – Winning distance 1 length or more
8/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/16 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
6/16 – Ran at York last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/16 – Trained by Michael Bell

3:10 – Magners Rose Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

16/18 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
16/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
15/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/18 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
12/18 – Placed last time out
12/18 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/18 – Aged 6 or younger
10/18 – Ran at York last time out
10/18 – Previous Group race winners
10/18 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained in Ireland
Thomas Hobson (2/1 fav) won the race in 2018
Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015

3.45 – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
13/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
12/16 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won 1-2 times before
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Foaled in April
6/16 – Ran at York last time
5/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
5/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
1/16 – Winners from stall 1

 

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Stat of the Day, 9th September 2019

Saturday's pick was...

4.25 Kempton : Streamline @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/2 (Chased leaders, went 2nd over 1f out, ran on to lead final 100 yards, won going away)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Long Call @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner (was 9), Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Over the last year, this 6 yr old gelding has finished on the first three home on four of six occasions, winning twice, including a course and distance success here LTO some 32 days ago under today's jockey, pulling clear as the finish unfolded, yet is only raised 2lbs for that effort, but does drop down in class.

To date he has 2 wins and 3 places from 6 runs on Good to Firm ground, 2 wins and a place from 3 attempts at this 10f trip, he's 1 from 1 here at Brighton (C&D LTO) and 1 from 1 under jockey Tom Marquand (also C&D LTO).

His trainer, Tony Carroll, is 4 from 13 (30.8%) over the past week and jockey Tom is 6 from 29 (20.7%) in the same period, whilst together they are 11/45 (24.4% SR) for 56.5pts (+125.7% ROI) in Flat handicaps this season, including 5/13 (38.5%) for 28.9pts (+222.4%) here at Brighton.

More longer-term, Tony's Flat handicappers racing over 6f to 1m2f here at Brighton are 39/204 (19.1% SR) for 101.2pts (+49.6% ROI) profit over the last six seasons, including...

  • 34/164 (20.7%) for 92.6pts (+56.5%) from males
  • 35/148 (23.7%) for 147.9pts (+99.9%) at odds of 9/4 to 14/1
  • 22/100 (22%) for 48.7pts (+48.7%) on Good to Firm
  • 10/49 (20.4%) for 33.2pts (+67.8%) in 2019
  • 8/38 (21%) for 13.5pts (+35.6%) from those dropping down a class
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 20.8pts (+59.4%) in September
  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 46.3pts (+140.2%) at Class 5
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 15.1pts (+54%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.4pts (+85.1%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...from which...males at 9/4 to 14/1 on Good to Firm are 16/62 (25.8% SR) for 68.2pts (+110% ROI) and this includes 8/26 (30.8%) this year, 4/15 (26.7%) using Tom Marquand and 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 26.7pts (+333.3%) for Tom this year.

And finally for today, you might be interested to read that Tony Carroll's LTO C&D winners are 9 from 14 (64.3% SR) for 21pts (+150% ROI) at odds of 5/1 and shorter in UK handicaps since the start of 2018, including 2/2 for 5.94pts here at Brighton (and 3 of the 5 losers still made the frame!)...

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Long Call @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 5.10pm on Sunday, although Bet365 were offering an extra half point at that time. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.30 Haydock : Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Streamline @ 11/4 BOG

...in the 7-runner, Group 3, Sun Racing Sirenia Stakes for 2yo over 6f on Standard To Slow Polytrack worth £34,026 to the winner...

Why?...

This juvenile colt has won two of three starts so far, including 1 from 2 under today's jockey, Hector Crouch and a win on his only previous run on this track. He was a decent third last time out (14 days ago) when third in a Listed contest looking very much like he needed/wanted today's extra furlong.

His trainer, Clive Cox, is 6 from 27 (22.2% SR) over the past fortnight including 5 from 10 (50%) from his 2yr olds, who are having a very good year overall, winning 17 of 76 (22.4% SR) for 65pts (+85.5% ROI) profit, including...

  • 16/47 (34%) for 19.3pts (41%) at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 7/39 (18%) for 68.2pts (+174.9%) over a 6f trip
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 8.9pts (+30.7%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 81.6pts (+302.2%) using jockey Hector Crouch
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 1.4pts (+15.4%) at Class 1
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.82pts (+56.4%) this month alone
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.8pts (+36%) on Polytrack

...whilst sub-8/1 runners racing over 6f are 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.5pts (+35.5% ROI)...

Our pick is by Due Diligence, a first year sire whose offspring have already won 19 of 96 (19.8% SR) contests, hitting the ground running and generating 37.6pts profit at an ROI of 39.2%, from which...

  • those last seen 11-20 days earlier are 6/30 (20%) for 31.25pts (+104.2%)
  • and A/W runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.6pts (+28.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Streamline @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Friday (considerably better price at Bet365 if you're quick/lucky). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 7th Sept 2019

Plenty going on this Saturday –  this week from Haydock, Ascot & Kempton - with the Group One Haydock Sprint Cup the feature contest on the day.....As always we've  got all the TV trends for you. Use these to find the best profiles of past winners and whittle down the runners.


Saturday 7th September 2019

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – Garswood Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

10/10 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
10/10 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 – Rated between 81-89 (inc)
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
6/10 – Irish Bred
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Ran at either York (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
Mekong (9/4) won the race in 2018

 

2.25 – Unibet Mile (Registered as The Superior Mile Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

13/15 – Won over 1m or further before
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
12/15 – Had won a Listed or better race before
11/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/15 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Had won at Haydock before
3/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
Here Comes When (3/1) won the race in 2018

 

3.35 – Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

15/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/16 – Had won at least twice before
14/16 – Had run 4 or more times that season
14/16 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/16 – Rated 90 to 101
12/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
9/16 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
8/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/16 – Had run over 1m6f before
7/16 – Ran at Haydock before
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Ran at York last time out
4/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
Reshoun (6/1) won the race in 2018

4.10 - Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

15/17 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
14/17 - Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
14/17 – Rated 111 or higher
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
13/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
13/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/17 –Had 4 or more runs that season
12/17 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
11/17 – Had won a Group race before
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/17 – Ran at Deauville (4) or York (5) last time out
8/17 – Had run at Haydock before (3 had won)
7/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/17 – Had won a Group 1 before
5/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 – Cunard Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
8/8 – Had run at the course before
8/8 – Had won over 7f before
8/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/8 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
7/8 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
6/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
4/8 – Rated between 95-97
4/8 – Had between 4-7 wins already
3/8 – Aged 5 years-old
2/8 – Winners from stall 12
0/8 – Winning favourites
Ripp Orf (7/1) won the race in 2018

3.55 - Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

Only 9 previous runnings
7/9 – Rated between 84-95
7/9 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/9 – Had won just once before
5/9 – Horses placed from stall 10
5/9 – Returned a double-figure price
5/9 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/9 – Had run at Ascot before (3 won)
4/9 – Horses placed from stall 8
4/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
2/9 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat
Duke Of Bronte (5/2 jfav) won the race in 2018

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – Sun Racing September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

12/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Didn’t win last time out
9/13 – Had won between 4-7 times before
9/12 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
8/13 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
8/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/13 – Had run at Kempton before
5/13 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Godolphin-owned runners
3/13 – Winners from stall 2
3/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/13 – Winners from stall 1
Enable (8/15) won the race in 2018

 

3.15 – Sun Racing 'London Mile' Handicap (Series Final) Cl2 1m ITV

13/13 – Had run at Kempton before
11/13 – Had won over a mile before
11/13 – Won between 3-7 times before
11/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Aged 4 years-old
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Returned 20/1 or bigger in the betting
5/13 – Rated between 77-85
5/13 – Horses from stall 9 that finished in the top 3
4/13 – Ran at Kempton last time out
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
1/13 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 14 (3) or 16 (2)
War Glory (20/1) won the race in 2018

 

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Stat of the Day, 6th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

4.40 Salisbury : You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and switched left over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Soft ground worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding has finished 122 in his last three starts, beaten by just a head when collared late on at Chester LTO 6 days ago having possibly had to do too much to get in front from a poor-ish draw. Running off the same mark today, it is hoped that a return to a straight 5f wearing first-time blinkers will enough to eke out a little bit from him today.

To date, his career stats under today's conditions include...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 8 at class 4
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 under jockey Richard Kingscote
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 carrying 9st 2lbs
  • 1 from 1 within a week of his last run
  • and 1 from 1 on soft ground

He's trained by Tom Dascombe and a quick glance at the Racecards tells you that both trainer and jockey have good records at this venue and as Richard is Tom's main jockey, it doesn't take a great leap of faith to guess that as a partnership, they've done well here too.

I think that's pretty much common knowledge, so I won't bore you by drilling down into those details, we can just take it as read that they go well here individually and as a team.

Tom's horses are going well enough right now, winning 6 of 30 (20% SR) over the past fortnight, but that's no real surprise as Tom's one of the trainers included in my "Late Season" trainers to watch. In Tom's case, I look for 2-4 yr old Flat handicappers priced at 15/8 to 9/1 (I don't bet outside those prices very often) during August to October.

Over the last four seasons, Tom has so far supplied me with 161 qualifiers, bearing 39 winners (24.2% SR) and 100.7pts (+62.5% ROI) profit, from which the following are relevant today...

  • 37/138 (26.8%) for 115.4pts (+86.3%) off a mark (OR) of 65-100
  • 20/81 (24.7%) for 59.3pts (+73.2%) ridden by Richard Kingscote (who inevitably pops up)
  • 11/48 (22.9%) for 22.4pts (+46.7%) at Class 4
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 56.6pts (+166.4%) here at Haydock
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 26.7pts (+116.2%) over the minimum 5f trip
  • and 5 from 20 (25%) for 9.1pts (+45.5%) this year...

...the figures for 2019 suggest they're still winning, but the market is slowly cottoning on to this angle, but there was still enough juice in the price available...

...for me to suggest... a 1pt win bet on Wild Edric @ 4/1 BOG as offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday (and also at BF/PP but non-BOG until 8.00am). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th September 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.20 Uttoxeter : Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up in rear, effort when not fluent 4 out, soon beaten, jumped left 3 out, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £5,693 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding, just knocking on the door for a winner having been a runner-up in each of his last three starts : a feat not as rare as you'd expect, but more on that shortly. Two of those last three efforts were at Class 3 and he now takes a drop in class to run off the same mark here at a track where he's 1 from 1, whilst overall he has a win and two places from four runs over today's trip.

His yard is in decent enough form right now with 2 winners and 2 placers from 6 over the past week, whilst trainer Amanda Perrett's record in Class 4/5 handicaps here at Salisbury over the last six seasons stands at 8 from 21 (38.1% SR) from runners sent off at 8/1 and shorter generating 17.8pts profit at a healthy ROI of 84.7% and these include of relevance today...

  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 13.3pts (+95.1%) at Class 4
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 16.7pts (+128.4%) from horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 9.1pts (+101.1%) over the last three seasons
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.2pts (+91%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.2pts (+174.3%) in September...

...whilst over the last three seasons, Class 4 runners with less than three weeks rest are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 5.87pts (+117.3% ROI) including 1 from 1 in September.

Now, I said that runners finishing second three times on the bounce wasn't as rare as you might expect, well you might not be surprised that I've a micro-system based around these runners that I've unimaginatively entitled "2-2-2 horses".  The basic premise of the system is...

...UK handicaps / Class 2-5 / odds of 11-10 to 11-1 / form line of 222 / beaten by a neck to 10 lengths LTO / last ran 6-45 days ago...

Since the start of 2016, there have been 398 such runners, from which there are 91 winners (22.9% SR) generating profits of 78.6pts (+19.7% ROI), including the following at play today....

  • 40/151 (26.5%) for 38.6pts (+25.5%) on the Flat
  • 27/109 (24.8%) for 40.2pts (+36.9%) were beaten by 3 to 10 lengths LTO
  • 23/83 (27.7%) for 37.6pts (+45.4%) ran 11-15 days earlier
  • 14/61 (23%) for 44.6pts (+73.1%) on Good to Soft
  • and 17 from 45 (37.8%) for 45.3pts (+100.7%) dropping down a class

...from which Flat runners beaten by 3 to 10 lengths LTO are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 32.6pts (+116.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on You're Hired @ 5/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th September 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.30 Salisbury : War Eagle @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Good ground worth £6,836 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding seems to have been rejuvenated since a switch to Ben Haslam's yard, winning two of seven (all under today's jockey Richie McLernon), including a win LTO, 9 days ago over 2m5f at Cartmel in another Class 3 contest.

In addition to that 2/7 record under today' jockey, the horse is also 3/6 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, 2/4 at Class 3 and 2/4 in cheekpieces.

Both trainer and jockey are in good form too with Richie riding 5 winners from 18 (27.8% SR) over the past fortnight, Ben saddling up 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) n the same period, whilst together they are 3 from 8 (37.5% SR).

Their joint success isn't just a purple patch, though, as since the start of 2018, they are 17 from 73 (23.3% SR) for 104.4pts (+143% ROI) together, from which they are...

  • 15/53 (28.3%) for 95.1pts (+179.4%) over 2m to 2m5f
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 71.5pts (+166.4%) in 2019
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 39.1pts (+100.3%) on Good ground
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 37.1pts (+206.2%) with 6yr olds
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 50.5pts (+315.3%) at Class 3
  • and 3/15 (20%) for 17pts (+113.2%) with LTO winners

...whilst based upon the above, in 2019 over 2m to 2m5f with the word "Good" in the official going description, Ben & Richie are 9 from 27 (33.3% SR) for 58.25pts (+215.7% ROI) with a 52% place strike rate.

And finally, since our pick was a winner LTO just nine days ago, it's worth noting that Ben has history for turning winners back out quickly and since 2014, his handicappers racing within 10 days of an LTO win are 10 from 15 (66.6% SR) for 25.2pts profit at an ROI of 167.8%...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Demi Sang @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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