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Stat of the Day, 13th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (In touch in 4th place, pushed along before 2 out, in 4th and well held before last, left 2nd after last, no chance with winner)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday 

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,133 to the winner...

Why?...

More on this later...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Calivigny @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday  as was available from Hills at 4.55pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Kempton : The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG PU at 13/8 (Led until hit 2nd and headed, mistake and lost 2nd 10th, mistake and behind, next, tailed off and pulled up before 3 out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG 

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m3½f on Heavy ground worth £5,913 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding makes a seasonal reappearance today after almost seven months off track. He won twice last season and rounded off that campaign with a pair of placed finishes. He has made the frame on his only previous heavy ground run, he stays all day if needed (has won at 2m5f and at 3m1.5f!) and a quick look at his profile shows he has 2 wins and a place from four efforts going left handed in cheekpieces, as will be the case today.

His trainer, Lucy Wadham, doesn't send many runners here  : just 55 in 16 years to be precise but an overall 20% strike rate suggests that it's not a lack of success keeping here and her string away from Lingfield.

In fact, she's 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 116pts (+644.5% ROI) here since the start of 2015 and whilst there's a 14/1 winner that strangely paid out at 81.5 at Betfair SP skewing the P/L & ROI figures, the strike rates stand up for themselves, as they do in the following filters that are all relevant today...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 118pts (+737.5%) from November to February
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 111pts (+853.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+702.1%) with Leighton Aspell in the saddle
  • 4/10 (40%) for 88.84pts (+888.4%) over hurdles
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 117.62 (+1960.3%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/5 (80%) for 24.34pts (+486.8%) in 9-runner contests
  • 3/10 (30%) for 35.69pts (+256.9%) in handicaps
  • 2/8 (25%) for 2.4pts (+30%) on heavy ground
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 28.2pts (402.4%) at Class 3
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 81.98pts (+1366.3%) from those rested for 6 months or longer
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 80.87pts (+1617.3%) over this course and distance

I accept that these are fairly small sample sizes, but I'm not a believer in coincidence and I think there's enough numerical evidence...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Potters Hedger @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, who were the only one showing a price at 4.55pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Wincanton : Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 (Bit keen chasing leaders on inside, went 2nd 5th, not fluent next, lost 2nd after 3 out, weakening when mistake next)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG 

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

The horse...is an 8 yr old mare who has finished 33112 in her last five runs, so she's clearly in good nick and these include winning both her starts over fences this year. These were over today's 2m5f trip and also over 2m7f, so she shouldn't be found wanting for stamina either. Overall, she has 2 wins and a place from three efforts at today's trip.

Our trainer...is Harry Whittington, whose horses claimed 2 wins and a place from 6 attempts last week, whilst his chasers are 31 from 141 (22% SR) for 6.91pts (+4.9% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2014. As you know, I don't follow anyone blindly and always seek to improve the percentages whilst reducing the number of bets placed. Any filters imposed must be logical, of course, and with today's contest in mind, Harry's chasers are...

  • 31/118 (26.3%) for 29.91pts (+25.3%) in fields of 4-12 runners
  • 26/69 (37.7%) for 24.46pts (+35.5%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 24/82 (29.3%) for 22.85pts (+27.9%) in fields of 4-8 runners
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 29.48pts (+70.2%) in November/December
  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 5.00pts (+12.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 15.08pts (+62.9%) in November
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 22.01pts (+115.9%) after less than three weeks rest
  • and 1/3 (33.3%) for 4.08pts (+136%) here at Kempton

And our jockey...Richard Johnson may never have actually ridden one of Harry's chasers before, but the pair are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 8.73pts (+145.5% ROI) over hurdles, including 1 from 1 here at Kempton.

Richard's own record here at Kempton is good and shows 8 winners from 39 (20.5% SR) for 7.82pts (+20% ROI) in handicap chases since the start of 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 12.82pts (+37.7%) over trips of 2m2f and beyond
  • 8/32 (25%) for 14.82pts (+46.3%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 17.82pts (+61.4%) at Class 2/3
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 11.11pts (+35.9%) on horses aged 7 or older
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 14.37pts (+68.4%) when sent off shorter than 6/1

...whilst on horses like The King's Baby who tick all five above boxes ie aged 7+ at sub-6/1 odds in 5-10 runner, Class 2/3 handicap chases over 2m2f and beyond, Richard Johnson is 6 from 10 (60% SR) for 20.66pts (+206.6% ROI) with two of the four losers claiming runner-up finishes...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on The King's Baby @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betway, Hills & Ladbrokes at 5.20pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Cheltenham TV Trends: Fri 15th Nov 2019

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Friday (15th Nov) as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the opening day of their three-day November Meeting.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

1:50 – BetVictor Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV

16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
15/17 – Raced at Cheltenham before
14/17 – Raced at least 5 times over fences previously
13/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/17 – Unplaced in their previous race
9/17 – Having their first run of the season
9/17 – Favourites placed
8/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – French-bred horse
4/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/17 – Won their most recent race
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Trained by Paul Henderson (2 of last 3 runnings)
0/17 – Irish-trained winners
Bun Doran won the race in 2018
Doitforthevillage won the race in 2017

 

2.25 – Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

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17/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
16/17 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously
15/17 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
15/17 – Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences
14/17 - Finished in the top three in their latest race
13/17 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
11/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old (10 of last 12 runnings)
9/17 – Irish-bred horse
8/17 – Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
8/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – First run over fences
8/17 – Raced already that season
7/17 – Won their latest race
6/17 – French-bred horse
6/17 – Favourites that won
5/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
5/17 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
Dynaste, Denman, Weird Al, Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus are all big names to win this race in recent years

 

3.00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f ITV

16/16 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
15/16 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/16 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
12/16 – Had a recent run that season
12/16 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
12/16 – Unplaced in their last race
11/16 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (7 won)
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/16 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/16 – Trained by Enda Bolger
6/16 – Favourites that won
Josies Orders won this in 2015 and 2018

 

3.35 - Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
12/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
12/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/15 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 years-old
9/15 – Won just once before (under rules)
9/15 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Cheltenham TV Trends: Sunday 17th Nov 2019

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the final day of their three-day November Meeting.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Racing Post #responsiblegambling Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase 2m ITV

16/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Raced (hurdles or fences) at Cheltenham previously
13/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Raced just once previously over fences
11/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
11/17 – Won their latest race
10/17 – Won previously over fences
10/17 – Ran in the Arkle Chase at the Festival later that season (1 won, Azertyuiop, 2002)
9/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (inc last 6 of last 11 years)
9/17 – Favourites that won
7/17 – Won by a French bred
4/17 – Won by Irish bred
4/17– Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/17 – Won by a German bred
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Fell in the Arkle Chase later that season

 

2.25 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

10 previous runnings
9/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Officially rated 150+
8/10 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/10 – Won on seasonal reappearance
8/10 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
7/10 – Aged 7 or older
7/10 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
6/10 – Failed to win last time out
5/10 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/10 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
5/10 – Favourites that won
4/10 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – German bred
3/10 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Seaux Royal won the race in 2018
Fox Norton won the 2016 and 2017 runnings

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3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/17 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
15/17 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/17 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/17 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/17 – Won their previous race
6/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/17 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1
6 of the last 10 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

 

3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Won last time out
12/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
11/15 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/15 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/15 – Had won a NH Flat race before
8/15 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
8/15 – Aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Aged 4 years-old
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Won by the Nicholls stable

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 9th November 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.40 Fontwell : Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 12/1 (Chased leaders, hampered over 1f out, not clear run an switched right inside final furlong, kept on, took 2nd post)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.50 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG 

...in an 15-runner, Class 2, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Good ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6yr old mare makes a handicap debut on her seasonal reappearance after running very well in much better races than this last season. Her hurdling record currently reads 12221 with the three defeats coming without disgrace in Class 1 contests (2 @ Listed and 1 @ Gr2) and with today's contest in mind, it's worth knowing that she has achieved the following so far...

  • 2 wins and a place from 4 on Good ground
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 as favourite
  • 2 wins from 2 at 2m5.5f/2m6f
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 under jockey Harry Cobden
  • 1 from 1 here at Wincanton
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance.

The afore-mentioned Harry Cobden is almost metronomic when it comes to his winning ratio, which never seems to move from a very healthy 22 to 23%, as typified by his 6 winners and 11 other placers from 26 rides over the last fortnight including 5 from 13 (38.5% SR) for 11pts (+84.8% ROI) on sub-7/1 hurdlers.

More long-term, Harry is 55/185 (29.7% SR) for 58.9pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Wincanton, which as a blind unfiltered stat is excellent and worth noting, but if you wanted some logical filters then from those 185 rides, he is...

  • 33/97 (34%) for 61.4pts (+63.3%) over hurdles
  • 28/112 (25%) for 64.8pts (+57.8%) in handicaps
  • and 10/51 (19.6%) for 51pts (+100%) in handicap hurdles, including 6 from 21 (38.1%) for 10.83pts (+51.6%) on horses trained by Paul Nicholls...

...whose runners are 6 from 23 over the last week including 5/12 (41.7%) for 8.92pts (+74.4%) over hurdles, whilst since the start of 2016, his record here at Wincanton is impressive at 83 from 230 (36.1% SR) backed blindly producing 35.3pts profit at an ROI of 15.3%, including...

  • 44/127 (34.7%) for 32.7pts (+25.7%) over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m1f
  • 16/35 (45.7%) for 23.2pts (+66.4%) in November
  • and 11/23 (47.8%) for 22.8pts (+99.3%) over trips of 2m3.5f to 3m1f in November.

And as today is our girl's first effort in handicap company, it's worth knowing that Mr Nicholls' handicap debutants are 39/184 (21.2% SR) for 78.6pts (+43% ROI) over the last six years and these are excellent numbers and include of relevance today...

  • 33/146 (22.6%) for 99.5pts (+68.6%) from November to April
  • 33/145 (22.8%) for 99.3pts (+68.9%) over hurdles
  • 14/54 (25.9%) for 34.4pts (+64.9%) with 6 yr olds
  • 13/46 (28.3%) for 41.9pts (+93.2%) from LTO winners
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.3pts (+43.5%) here at Wincanton
  • 8/25 (32%) for 34.3pts (+137.2%) over 2m5f/2m5.5f
  • and 7/35 (20%) for 16.6pts (+48.8%) with Harry Cobden in the saddle

My own saved composite angle based around the above tells me that 4 to 6 yr olds have won 30 of 119 (25.2% SR) for 115.3pts (+97.7% ROI) over hurdles in the half-year from November 1st and if you wanted to drill further down into these 119 runners, you'd get...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 48.5pts (+173.3%) with LTO winners
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 17pts (+77.1%) here at Wincanton
  • 6/15 (40%) for 36.7 (+244.4%) over 2m5f/2m5.5f
  • and 5/21 (23.8%) for 26.3pts (+131.5%) for Harry Cobden...

...all of which should be enough to justify...a 1pt win bet on Danse Idol @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Boylesports, Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 9th Nov 2019

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster (ABANDONED) for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also at Aintree to take in one of their contests as always we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/15 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/15 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

2.05 – Bombardier Golden Beer Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/16 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
14/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Won from stall 12 or lower
13/16 – Rated 99 or higher
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
11/16 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/16 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

3.15 – November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

13/16 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
13/16 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
13/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
12/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 5 times in all)
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

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Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/12 – Rated between 119-129
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/12 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
7/12 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
7/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
6/12 – Had run at the track before
6/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
5/12 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
2/12 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 6)
2/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

2.25 – John Romans Park ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

12/12 – Had won no more than twice over fences
11/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Favourites placed
10/12 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
9/12 – Irish (5) or French (4) bred
8/12 – Aged 6 or younger
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5-7
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
13/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
10/15 – Rated 150 or lower
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/15 – Having first run of the season
5/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/15 – Carried 10-6 or less
5/15 – Won with 11-10 in weight
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by John Quinn
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

3.35 - Badger Beers Silver Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/16 – Won at least two chase races previously
14/16 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
13/16 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
13/16 –  Raced at the course previously ( won over fences)
13/16 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
13/16  – Placed in the top four in their last race
11/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Raced already that season
10/16 – Irish-bred horse
9/16 – Raced at either Sandown (3), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
9/16 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/16 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/16 – 6Priced at double-figures
7/16 – Won their latest race
6/16 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
5/16 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 5 of the last 9 years)
Present Man won the race in 2017 and 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f ITV

14/14 – Aged 9 or younger
14/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Had won 2 or less times over fences before
11/14 – Last raced over 6 months ago
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or more
9/14 - Had won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
7/14 – Rated between 119 and 130
6/14 – Had raced at Aintree before
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 8th November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.40 Southwell : Groupie @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, hampered over 1f out, not clear run an switched right inside final furlong, kept on, took 2nd post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Fontwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG 

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2½f on Soft ground worth £2989 to the winner...

Why?...

Our boy might well be 11yrs old now, but shows no sign of slowing down just yet, having won over 3m1f at Wincanton 3 weeks ago, before losing little in defeat here over course and distance on similarly soft ground 6 days later, going down by just three quarters of a length.

He's by Fruits of Love, whose chasers are 33 from 192 (17.2% SR) for 161.1pts (+83.9% ROI) since the start of 2017, all of which are male runners and include...

  • 30/171 (17.5%) for 168.9pts (+98.8%) from 7-11 yr olds
  • 28/136 (20.6%) for 183.6pts (+135%) after a break of 6-60 days
  • 27/143 (18.9%) for 109.1pts (+76.3%) in handicaps
  • 25/88 (28.4%) for 67.4pts (+76.6%) at odds of 6/4 to 8/1
  • 17/90 (18.9%) for 178.3pts (+198.1%) during September to January
  • and 7/42 (16.7%) for 71.3pts (+169.8%) on Soft ground...

...whilst Fruits of Love's 7 to 11 yr old handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 8/1 after a break of 6 to 60 days are 18/59 (30.5% SR) for 50.9pts (+86.2% ROI) since the start of 2017 : a micro worth bookmarking possibly?

He is trained by Johnny Farrelly who has done well at this sort of trip in recent years with horses deemed to at least have "a chance".

More specifically, I'm talking about runners racing over 3 to 3.5 miles sent off at 10/1 and shorter, because they are 33/132 (25% SR) for 43.9pts (+33.3% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these represent significant improvements on Mr Farrelly's overall form (11.2% SR & a 21.4% loss of stakes from blind backing) during that period.

And of that 33/132 dataset that interests me today...

  • 25/94 (26.6%) for 44.1pts (+46.9%) from male runners
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 37.3pts (+63.3%) at Class 5
  • 13/43 (38.2%) for 28.2pts (+83%) from Class 5 males
  • 6/12 (50%) for 12pts (+100%) in November
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 8.2pts (+74.5%) at Fontwell
  • 3/3 (100%) for 9.73pts (+324.3%) from Class 5 males in November
  • 2/4 (50%) for 5.12pts (+128%) from Class 5 males at Fontwell

...whilst Class 5 males at Fontwell in November are 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 7.12pts (+356% ROI), including Love The Leader's win here at this vey meeting a year ago...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Love The Leader @ 7/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th November 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

6.10 Kempton : Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Held up towards rear, closer on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, strong run to lead well inside final furlong, soon clear to win by 1.25 lengths)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £2782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, after a long awaited return to form, I was hoping for some nice data-laden selection to sweep us towards a third successive winner, but there were very few horses ticking the stats/price/likelihood of winning axis I use to finalise a pick, so here we've one I expect to go well which is priced attractively, but doesn't have the big blockbuster standout stat.

Two out of three isn't a disaster and there are enough statistical snippets/nuggets to back up the choice, starting with...

...trainer Tom Tate has sent just four runners to this venue this year, but with two winners and a further placer producing 17.8pts profit at an ROI of 445%, it's worth looking out for the rare visitor. Of those four runs, jockey Andrew Mullen is 1 from 2 and Class 6 runners are also 1 from 2.

Next up is a quick look at the Trainer/Jockey combo, as since the start of 2017, the Tate/Mullen alliance is 13 from 83 (15.7% SR) for 53.5pts (+64.5% ROI), with a 10/36 (27.8% SR) record on the A/W yielding 72.9pts (+202.6%) including 3 winners from 9 (33.3%) for 22.4pts (+249%) at Class 6 n the A/W.

And I'll wrap today's piece up by telling you that in 2019 so far, top-rated (OR) runners in non-handicap contests are 18 from 93 (19.4% SR) for 233.8pts (+251.3% ROI) here at Southwell, including of note/relevance today...

  • 15/79 (19%) for 240.7pts (+304.7%) over trips up to a mile
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 199.3pts (+766.5%) from female runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 206.3pts (+1085.8%) from females over 5 to 8 furlongs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 174pts (+1740%) at Class 6
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 175.2pts (+2502.6%) at Class 6 up to a mile
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 178.4pts (+8920%) from Class 6 females over 5f-1m

The above ROI figures are skewed by a 66/1 winner that paid out at 170.00 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't invalidate the strike rates, but if you just considered those of the 93 top-rated runners who were sent off shorter than 5/1, you'd have 3 winners from 6 (50% SR) and 5.91pts (+93.5% ROI) profit...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Groupie @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th November 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

4.40 Kempton : Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG WON at 10/3 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, hard pressed inside final furlong, held on close home to win by a head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.10 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?...

Clive Cox's 2 yr old colt is 2 from 2 so far ahead of today's handicap/nursery debut and has already won here at Kempton, won at Class 4 and twice under today's jockey Adam Kirby. He was last seen six weeks ago landing a 6f contest as an odds-on favourite on this track and now steps back up to Class 4 and tackles 7f for the first time.

Sent off at 5/6 LTO, 42 days ago, he is flagged up on my odds on LTO winners micro-system, which tells me that such runners racing in All-Weather handicaps, 31-60 days later are 33 from 89 (37.1% SR) for 64.3pts (+72.3% ROI) since the start of 2016 and whilst that looks compelling enough to just back them blindly, here are some applicable filters to consider...

  • 28/58 (48.3%) for 51.2pts (+88.4%) at odds of 11/10 to 5/1
  • 23/56 (41.1%) for 70.9pts (+126.5%) on Polytrack
  • 18/43 (41.9%) for 49.9pts (+116%) over trips up to a mile
  • 18/36 (50%) for 38.6pts (+107.3%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 52.1pts (+157.8%) at Class 4
  • 14/33 (42.4%) for 42.2pts (+127.8%) upped 1 class
  • 14/23 (54.2%) for 19.3pts (+80.6%) with 1 previous track win
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 43.8pts (+292%) here at Kempton
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.13pts (+62.6%) upped in trip by a furlong
  • 4/5 (80%) for 12.7pts (+254%) with 2 yr olds

...whilst those sent off at odds of 11/10 to 5/1 over trips of 5-11 furlongs on Polytrack are 17 from 27 (63%) for 43.9pts (+162.6%).

Meanwhile, Clive Cox has an excellent record with his handicap debutants in recent years with those sent off at 10/1 or shorter winning 30 of 115 (26.1% SR) for 58.9pts (+51.2% ROI) since the start of 2016, including of note/relevance today...

  • 24/79 (30.4%) for 65.2pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 22/67 (32.8%) for 51.8pts (+77.4%) with male runners
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.6pts (+74.7%) over trips of 7f and beyond
  • 15/29 (51.7%) for 60pts (+206.8%) on the A/W
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 14.5pts (+25%) using jockey Adam Kirby
  • 12/24 (50%) for 39.9pts (+166.3%) on Polytrack
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 25pts (+73.5%) stepping up in class
  • 9/27 (33.3%) for 25.8pts (+95.6%) with 2 yr olds
  • 4/12 (33.3%)for 9.86pts (+82.2%) here at Kempton

Now you can mix and match the above to your heart's content, but interestingly, males in 6-11 runner A/W contests over 6f and beyond are 7 from 7 (100% SR) for 31pts (+443.4% ROI), including 3/3 for 9pts over 7f, 2/2 for 6.5pts at Kempton and 1/1 for 3.6pts over course and distance...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Dance Fever @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (the first to show their hand) at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th November 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Plumpton : Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/10 (Led, headed when not fluent 3 out, soon outpaced, rallied approaching last, kept on well under pressure, but beaten by a length and a half)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in what looks a poor contest on a poor day of racing, I'm going to try and nick a winner with a horse that seems like it is best suited to the conditions it'll face today. A little bit like a football striker on a lean run who just needs any goal to get him going again, I'm not fussy about the ugliness of the selection and reasoning today, but I do expect a win.

So, I've gone with a 4 yr old gelding who was a winner over course and distance last time out and although he's now 4lbs higher for that win, the booking of useful 7lb claimer Mark Crehan more than compensates today.

Our boy has 2 wins and 2 further places from 12 starts so far, mainly on the A/W and I think he's the best suited here, because he has...

  • 2 wins and 2 places from 7 here at Kempton
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 6 over a 1 mile trip
  • 2 wins and 1 place from 6 at Class 6
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 over course and distance
  • 2 wins from 4 in 14-runner races
  • and 2 wins and a 1 place over course and distance at Class 6

I did suggest it wasn't going to be in-depth or pretty, but the above allied to an apparent lack of real recent form amongst his rivals is enough to convince me...

...to place...a 1pt win bet on Purple Paddy @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by a handful of firms at 5.35pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th November 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Ayr : Gold Opera @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, reminders after 11th, lost touch next, left modest 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Plumpton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Soft/Heavy ground worth £6238 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old gelding trained by Tom Lacey and I could make this piece very short by saying just back all Tom's hurdlers for a near 20% strike rate and a near 45% return on your money, but I never advocate blind backing, so which of Tom's hurdlers in particular should we be backing?

Personally, I'd stick to those sent off at evens to 8/1 in handicaps, for they are 40 from 134 (29.9% SR) for 81.8ppts (+61.1% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which there is a myriad of profitable angles you could consider. I've done that digging for you and here are "just" ten such angles/filters, all relevant/applicable today...

  • 35/110 (31.8%) for 78.43pts (+71.3%) within 60 days of their last run
  • 21/54 (38.9%) for 49.96pts (+92.5%) n fields of 7-9 runners
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 57.83pts (+105.1%) after 1 or 2 runs in the previous 90 days
  • 14/47 (29.8%) for 46.07pts (+98%) on Soft/Heavy ground
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 6.41pts (+18.9%) with champion jockey Richard Johnson in the saddle
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 10.31pts (+39.6%) at Class 3
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 23.39pts (+137.6%) after 1 run in the previous 90 days
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 10.53pts (+55.4%) over a 2 mile trip
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 29.11pts (+264.7%) in November
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 7.18pts (+143.6%) here at Plumpton

Now I know that many of you like a composite angle you can pop into your Query Tool for future reference, so if that's the case, I'd stick to the first three or four datasets ie how recently have they run, how often have they run recently, how many rivals are they facing and what is the ground like, but open them up slightly to give a more realistic sample size...

...ie those racing in fields of 7 to 9 runners within 60 days of their last run, having had 1-4 runs in the previous 90 days are 24 from 65 (36.9% SR) for 67.66pts (+104.1% ROI), including 7/23 (30.4%) for 25pts (+108.7% ROI) on Soft/Heavy ground...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Sir Egbert @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 4.50pm on Sunday, whilst Bet365 were a third of a point bigger for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd November 2019

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Wetherby : North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up, good headway chasing leaders 6th, 2nd going well after 4 out, joined for well held 2nd 3 out, blundered badly 2 out, no chance after)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Ayr:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5½f on Soft ground worth £9357 to the winner...

Why?...

Very simply, an in-form yard sending out a horse proven under conditions. Sometimes it is that simple and seeing as my usual deep data digging isn't bearing fruit right now, this stripped back approach is worth a try.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 36.6% place strike rate and a 20% win strike rate over the past fortnight (11 placers from 30, including 6 winners) and runs this 10 yr old gelding who is already 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 8.91pts (+37.1% ROI) in handicap chases, including of relevance today...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 14.32pts (+84.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.32pts (+108.8%) at odds in the 2/1 to 8/1 range
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.7pts (+83.4%) wearing a visor
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.62pts (+118%) on Soft ground
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 8.61pts (+123%) here at Ayr
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12pts (+600%) on soft ground here at Ayr...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Gold Opera @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday, as the only open book on the race! To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 2nd Nov 2019

As always we've got all the key race trends for this Saturday’s LIVE ITV races from Wetherby and Ascot, including the Grade Two Charlie Hall Chase.

 

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.35 - Ascot Underwriting Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap) Cl3 2m3f ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 7 or younger
6/6 – Irish bred
5/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Yet to win over fences
3/6 – Aged 6 year-old
2/6 – Had run over hurdles at Ascot before
1/6 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/2

 

2.10 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

13/16 – Aged 8 years-old or younger
11/16 – Irish (5) or French (6) bred
11/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
9/16 – Having their first run of the new season
9/16 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/16 – Rated 130 or lower
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ran at either Ascot (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
4/16 – Won carrying 11-12
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2


2.45 – Sodexo Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
15/15 – Had won over at 2m or 2m1f over hurdles before
13/15 – Never raced at Ascot before
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
9/15 – Having their first run of the season
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites (1 co, 2 joint)
6/15 – Ran at Huntingdon (3) or Aintree (3) last time out
6/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
5/15 – Won by a French bred horse
3/15 – Ridden by a conditional jockey
3/15 – Won by trainer Alan King, including last two renewals
2/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/15 - Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 years-old.
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2


3.20 – Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

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14/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m4f before
11/14 – Didn’t win last time out
10/14 – Had run at Ascot before (4 won)
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Carried 10-10 or more
9/14 – Aged 8 or older
8/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
8/14 – Having their first run of the season
8/14 – Unplaced in their last race
8/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
6/14 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
2/14 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Go Conquer won the race in 2017 and was third in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.20 bet365 Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m3 1/2f ITV4

Just one previous running
Trainer Charlie Longsdon won the 2018 running
Trainer Philip Kirby has a 45% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a 21% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Harry Skelton has a 34% record riding over fences at the track

 

1.55 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

12/12 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
11/12 – Had between 2-5 previous hurdles wins to their name
10/12 – Having their first run of the season
9/12 – Never raced at Wetherby before
8/12 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Had won a NH Flat race previously
6/12 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/12 – Ran at Punchestown last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by John Quinn
Lady Buttons (7/2) won this race in 2018 and was second in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4

 

3.05 – bet365 Hurdle (West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m26y ITV4

17/17 – Had won over at least 2m3f over hurdles before
16/17 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
14/17 – Failed to win their last race
12/17 – Officially rated 149 or higher
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
9/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/17 – Ran at either Aintree (5) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
7/17 – Had won at Wetherby before
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

 

3.40 – bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

15/17 – Were having their first run of the season
15/17 – Rated 151 or higher
14/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m over fences before
12/17 – Aged 8 or older
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/17 – Ran at either Ayr (3), Aintree (6) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Had run at Wetherby before (3 won)
6/17  - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Trained by Evan Williams
Definitly Red (3/1) won the race in 2018
Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race in 1992, 1994, 2005, 2007 & 2017
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 7/1

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 1st November 2019

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Stratford : Timoteo @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 6/1 (Held up mid-division, in touch when not much room on bend before 3 out, no impression after)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Wetherby:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m5½f on Good to Soft worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep this nice and simple today with a 5 yr old gelding who has two wins and a place from his last five starts and comes here off the back of a win in another Class 4 Handicap Hurdle on Good to Soft ground, when he landed the spoils at Worcester 22 days ago.

He is trained by Warren Greatrex, who should probably send more hurdlers to Wetherby, where the market usually has the measure of his runners, for those sent off at odds shorter than 5/1 over hurdles here are 15 from 31 (48.4% SR) for 10.66pts at an ROI of 34.4% and although that's not the largest sample size I've ever used, it does throw up several interesting and profitable angles at play today, such as...

  • 12/24 (50%) for 11.51pts (+48%) with male runners
  • 10/20 (50%) for 5.01pts (+25%) at Class 4
  • 10/18 (55.6%) for 10.32pts (+57.3%) during the final quarter of the year
  • 10/16 (62.5%) for 10.4pts (+65%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 11.86pts (+98.9%) after 16-45 days rest
  • 5/10 (50%) for 0.95pts (+9.5%) from LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 7.42pts (+106%) in handicaps
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 8.26pts (+165.2%) since the start of last year...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on North Star Oscar @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.10pm on Thursday, whilst Bet365 were a quarter of a point shorter and the best non-BOG offered was Hills' 10/3. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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