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Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

8.50 Newcastle : Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace under pressure final furlong, no impression) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Florencio @ 7/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner on yard debut 16 days ago, when scoring comfortably by 2 lengths over 7f at Laytown earlier in the month off today's mark of 75 taking his record over the last six races to 3 wins and 2 places including a formline of 11251 over 7f.

After his recent move, he's now with Jamie Osborne, whose LTO winners are 66/325 (20.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+11.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2010 and these include...

  • at odds of evens to 11/2 : 49/179 (27.4%) for 19.4pts (+10.9%)
  • since the start of 2016 : 22/123 (17.9%) for 24.6pts (+20%)
  • over 7f : 15/62 (24.2%) for 35.3pts (+56.9%)
  • in September/October : 13/59 (22%) for 48.5pts (+82.1%)
  • and when using a claimer jockey : 14/54 (25.9%) for 46pts (+85.2%)

Ryan Rossa is in the saddle today, he claims 3lbs and now rides for Jamie for the 15th time, having won three times from the previous fourteen (21.4% SR) for profits of 4pts at an ROI of 28.5% so far...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Florencio @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 22nd Sept 2018

It’s Ayr Gold Cup day at the Scottish venue this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 8 LIVE races in total.

As always, we've  got all the TV trends for you. Use these to find the best profiles of past winners and whittle down the runners.


Saturday 22nd September 2018

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.00 - William Hill Supports The Fight Against Parkinson's Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Had won over 1m before
10/11 – Won between 2-6 times before
9/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Winners from stalls 9 or lower
9/11 – Placed 4th or worse in their last race
9/11 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
8/11 – Aged 4 or older
8/11 – Returned between 7/1-14/1 in the betting
7/11 – Had run at the track before
7/11 – Rated between 89-93
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
6/11 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
2/11 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/11 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

 

2.40 – William Hill Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

15/15 – Carried 8-11 or more
13/15 – Aged 5 or younger
13/15 – Previous winners over 6f
13/15 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/15 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
12/15 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
10/15 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/15 – Finished 5th or better last time out
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Winning Favourites
3/15 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
0/15 – Filly or mare winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/1

 

3.15 – William Hill Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/15 – Previous winners over 6f
13/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/15 – Had never raced at Ayr before
13/15 – Had won once or two times before
12/15 – Winning distance 1 length or further
11/15 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
10/15 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1

 

3.50 – William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Failed to win their last race
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or more
10/16 – Had 7 or more runs that season
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Rated 90-100
9/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/16 – Had raced at Ayr before
8/16 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (3) last time out
8/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/16– Winning favourites (2 winning favs since 1980)
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last 10 winners came from stalls 8 or lower (4 of the last 13 winners came from stall 8)
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/1

Note: The 2017 renewal was staged at Haydock

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.45 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 1m2f6y ITV4

14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16 – Won from stall 7 or higher
12/16 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
12/16 – Won at least twice previously
11/16 – Won over 1m2f previously
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/16 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/16 – Officially rated between 89 and 94
9/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/16 – Won by a 4 year-old
9/16 – Won from a double-figure draw
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Had raced at Newbury before (2 won)
4/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
4/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint, 1 Co)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

2.20 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

16/16 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
15/16 – Priced 9/1 or less
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Had 4 or more career wins
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
10/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Raced at Newbury before
8/16 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/16 – Had won a Group race before
6/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Trained by David Simcock (including last 3 runnings)
3/16 – Raced at York last time
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

2.55 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

13/16 – Won from draw 5 or lower
13/16 – Raced 3 or more times
13/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
12/16 – Won over 6f previously
12/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Foaled in March or later
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Favourites (or joint) to win
7/16 – Won exactly two races before
6/16 – Won by an April foal
5/16 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
4/16 – Won their previous race
4/16 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/16 – Filly winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

3.30 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

16/16 – Raced four or more times that season
14/16 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
14/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
13/16 – Won a Listed or Group race before
12/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
12/16 – Won over 5f previously
11/16 - Aged 5 or younger
11/16 – Won 4 or more times
8/16 – Previous Group race winners
6/16 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 6 winners)
6/16 – Won their last race
5/16 – Favourites
4/16 – Mare winners
Take Cover won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

 

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 21st September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.15 Pontefract : Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 11/2 (Led, strongly challenged over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on under pressure but beaten by stablemate by 0.5 length) basically right trainer, wrong horse : nice 40/1 exacta for someone!

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Tapeta, worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

In line with the rest of the week so far, I'm playing it simple again today. Here we've got a likeable 8 yr old gelding that I fancied to do well in this race even before I dug the numbers out. I knew he had a good record over this track/trip and was possibly a little unlucky to be beaten by a neck last time out. These factors allied to what seemed a generous opening show from the bookies made the final decision quite easy.

So, back to 18 days ago, when he was headed late on over this course and distance at 11/1, conceding a stone to the 3/1 favourite who just pipped him, so no disgrace there and there's the possibility that a third run inside 8 days was just too much in the end and he should be fresher today.

But what stats do I have to back up a fancy?

Well, with a career of 135 races behind him so far, he's hardly unexposed, but he does well in certain conditions, especially those prevalent today. Of those 135 prior engagement, his record on the All-Weather is excellent with 10 wins from 47 (21.3% SR) for a modest 2.14pts (+4.55% ROI) profit, as he does tend to get backed and here is how he scored those 10 A/W wins, based on today's conditions, of course...

  • 10 came from 33 races (30.3%) over the 5f trip for profits of 16.14pts (+48.9%)
  • 9 from 22 (40.9%) when sent off at 6/1 or shorter for 16.93pts (+77%)
  • 8 from 17 (47.1%) when 2nd or 3rd LTO for 17.36pts (+102.1%)
  • 7 from 34 (20.6%) in handicaps for 8.68pts (+25.5%)
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) at Class 6 for 6.44pts (+22.2%)
  • 5 from 27 (18.5%) on a straight track for 3.53pts (+13.1%)
  • 5 from 26 (19.2%) here on the Tapeta at Newcastle for 4.53pts (+17.4%)
  • 5 from 23 (21.7%) over today's course and distance for 7.53pts (+32.7%)
  • 5 from 20 (25%) when running off a mark (OR) of 50-60 for 10.53pts (+52.7%)
  • 5 from 19 (26.3%) at the age of 7/8 for 11.53pts (+60.7%)
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) when a runner-up LTO for 12.23pts (+135.8%)
  • 4 from 14 (28.6%) wearing a visor for 11.42pts (+81.6%)
  • 4 from 12 (33.3%) coming off a break of 16-45 days for 6.21pts (+51.8%)
  • 4 from 5 (80%) when only beaten by 0.25 to 1 length LTO for 15.78pts (+315.5%)

...OR...you could just back him on the A/W over the minimum 5f at SPs of 6/1 or shorter after a top 3 finish LTO : this would have given you 9 winners from 10 (90% SR : the loser was third, beaten by just half a length!) for a profit of some 28.93pts at an ROI of 289.3%!

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Windforpower @ 9/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 at 5.10pm on Thursday evening, the first firm to break cover, whilst I'll be using SkyBet's 4/1 BOG should it be a winner. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 8.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

4.55 Sandown : Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Well off the pace in last pair in main group, sustained headway on wide outside hung right and went 2nd over 1f out, led inside final furlong, stayed on well)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding caught the eye when winning at (relatively) nearby Ripon 23 days ago over this same trip in a better (C3) contest than the one he faces today. He is admittedly up 5lbs for that win, but in fairness he did fairly hose up, making all without going flat out to finish 3L ahead of his nearest rival. The rise in weight is partially offset by the jockey's 3lb claim and the drop in class should also help his/our cause.

Trainer Roger Fell is 13 from 86 (15.1% SR) for 14.1pts (+16.4% ROI) with his LTO winners, of whose those racing on the Flat (turf) 10/65 (15.4%) for 21.8pts (+33.6%) and of these 65 runners those whose LTO win was 11-25 days earlier are 5 from 26 (19.2%) for 26.94pts (+103.6%)

i.e. Roger Fell's male LTO winners running on the Flat 11-25 days after that win are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 28.94pts (+120.6% ROI)

In addition to the above, if you'd blindly backed all Roger's Flat handicappers priced at 5/2 to 8/1 over trips of 1m3f and shorter during his short training career to date, you'd have already bagged yourself 35 winners from 182 (19.2% SR), earning yourself 39.7pts profit at an ROI of 21.8%...

...enough (IMO) to risk... a 1pt win bet on Mulligatawny @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Coral at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening, although I'll be settling up officially based on the 9/2 BOG from 10Bet, Ladbrokes and SportPesa . To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

4.30 Lingfield : Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG WON at 3/1 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, led towards finish to win by a neck)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.55 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Well, I'm going to keep it fairly simple again with this 3 yr old filly who has improved for the step up in trip to 1m2f (and 1 run at 1m4f), making the frame in all six starts at the longer trip(s). She was only beaten by half a length last time out (9 days ago) and runs off the same mark and under the same jockey today.

That jockey is Silvestre de Sousa and in two rides on this filly, he has a win and that narrow defeat as a runner-up, whilst the horse herself has won 3 of 7 in fields of 8-11 runners and she's 2 from 2 after a break of 7 to 10 days.

Her trainer Michael Bell is 14/80 (17.5% SR) for 15pts (+18.7% ROI) here at Sandown since the start of 2010 and these include (of relevance today, of course!)...

  • in handicaps : 9/55 (16.4%) for 19.4pts (+35.3%)
  • 3 yr olds are 9/45 (20%) for 17.25pts (+38.3%)
  • on Good ground : 5/31 (16.1%) for 22.7pts (+73.3%)
  • at odds of 11/2 and shorter : 10/28 (35.7%) for 13.8pts (+49.3%)
  • female runners are 4/25 (16%) for 7.05pts (+28.2%)
  • LTO runners-up are 4/12 (33.3%) for 18.2pts (+151.4%)
  • in September : 2/9 (22.2%) for 9.56pts (+106.2%)
  • and those beaten by a head to a length LTO are 4/7 (57.1%) for 23.6pts (+337.1%)

Now, you might have noticed no trainer/jockey stats in that list there, that's because Silvestre de Sousa hasn't ridden a Michael Bell horse here at Sandown as far as I'm aware, but he has ridden 18 winners from 80 (22.5% SR) on this track for other trainers over the last three seasons, so he clearly rides this one well. Those winners have generated 11.32pts profit at an ROI of 14.2% and of the 80 rides...

  • handicappers are 13/54 (24.1%) for 9.64pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 11/2 : 16/41 (39%) for 28.5pts (+69.6%)
  • 3 yr olds are 8/35 (22.9%) for 5.8pts (+16.6%)
  • and at Class 5 : 9/25 (36%) for 19.22pts (+76.9%)

AND...from the above...3 yr old handicappers priced at 5/4 to 11/2 are 6/14 (42.9%) for 9.28pts (+66.3% ROI) with 5 of the 8 "losers" making the frame and Class 5 runners winning 3 of 5 (60%) for profits of 4.46pts (+89.2%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Geetanjali @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by the first three firms (BF, PP & B365) to have shown their hand by 5.05pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.55 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

8.30 Kempton : Klassique @ 5/1 BOG WON at 7/2 (Tracked leaders on inside, smooth headway on inside over 2f out, led inside final furlong, quickened clear to win by 2.5 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

Like Monday's selection, I'm going to keep this fairly short, simple and hopefully sweet with a 7 yr old gelding who is admittedly on a lengthy losing streak (a feeling I'm familiar with), but has shown signs of coming into some form of late with a string of placed finishes, making the frame in each of his last six runs and has has now been eased a couple of pounds for his return to A/W racing.

He has run well (and won) in better races than this and he certainly gets the trip (placed in 13 of 21 attempts = 61.9% PSR), so I've no qualms on that score, but it's all about the trainer and jockey today, because...

...over the last 30 days : 

  • Trainer David Simcock is 10 from 46 (21.7% SR) for 10.9pts (+23.7% ROI)
  • Jockey Jamie Spencer is 16/76 (21.1%) for 5.9pts (+7.9%)
  • and together they are 6/11 (54.6%) for 16.7pts (+151.5%)

And to be honest with you, those figures would be enough for me on a poor day's racing to make this a selection. They do team up with two others today, including one more here at Lingfield, where Mr Simcock is 45/231 (17.9% SR) for 43.6pts (+17.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and the selection is reinforced by Jamie Spencer riding 13 winners from 53 (24.5% SR) of those 231 runners for Mr Simcock.

It's not an angle I've just discovered to be honest, as the market seems wise to it, hence the profits of 5.34pts only equating to an ROI of 10.1%, which is why we try to get in/on early. Of that 13/53 record for the Simcock/Spencer alliance on this track, they are 6 from 20 (30%) for 9pts (+45%) over 1m2f/1m4f...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Oasis Fantasy @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by all five firms to have shown their hand by 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Held up towards rear, headway and squeezed through over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, but beaten by 2.5L)

Monday's pick runs in the...

8.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klassique @ 5/1 BOG  

In a 9-runner, Class 4 Handicap (AW)  for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old filly was 5th on debut over a mile and looked like she wanted/needed further, so was stepped up to 9.5f. She was then beaten by three parts of a length as a runner-up and she still looked like she had plenty more to give. She then won on her third and most recent start 8 weeks ago when just getting up by a nose over 1m2f when partnered by today's jockey James Doyle for the first time.

James is back in place and they're going a further 2 furlongs today for her handicap debut and I wouldn't be massively surprised if this proves to be the right trip for her : trainer William Haggas is one of the better judges around.

He doesn't, however, send many runners here to Kempton's Polytrack, but since the start of 2013, his handicappers are 14 from 72 (19.4% SR) for 21.6pts (+30% ROI) at this venue, so it's not a lack of success keeping him/them away. Of those 72 that have been sent here, Class 4/5 runners are 10 from 48 (20.8%) for 14.7pts (+30.7%)

Again since the start of 2013, Mr Haggas is 64/207 (30.9% SR) for 74pts (+35.8% ROI) with LTO winners who had been rested for at least 25 days.

Also in this same 2013-18 timeframe, his Class 3-6 handicap debutants are 71 from 257 (27.6% SR) for 38.3pts (+14.9% ROI), from which...

  • LTO winners are 47/157 (29.9%) for 21.6pts (+13.8%)
  • those off the track for a month or longer are 39/113 (34.5%) for 71.7pts (+63.5%)
  • and LTO winners returning from an absence of a month or longer are 26/71 (36.6%) for 34.3pts (+48.3%)

So, we've considered the horse and her trainer, what of her jockey, James Doyle? Well, he has a good recent record here too, having won 19 of 70 (27.1% SR) handicaps on this track since the start of 2016 recording profits of 30.8pts at an ROI of 44.1%. These also include 14 winners from 37 (37.8%) for 39.7pts (+107.2%) at Class 4 and two wins from three (66.6%) for 5.26pts (+175.4%) on horses trained by William Haggas...

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Klassique @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power as of 5.15pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.30 Sandown : Firmament @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Held up off the pace towards rear, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 5 Handicap (AW)  for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack, worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A very consistent 5 yr old gelding who has made the frame in each of his last 11 starts, winning three times including two successes in his last three outings, concluding with a Class 5 win over a mile last time out nine days ago, taking his record over this trip to 23131.

He, like Thursday's pick, is trained by Joseph Tuite and as I went through his recent form and his general September form just two days ago for you, I won't bore you by repeating the numbers. If however, you need a reminder, those details are right here.

What I do want to look at is Mr Tuite's record at getting winners to reproduce their form and since the start of 2015, his LTO winners are 15 from 78 (19.2% SR) for 14.8pts (+19% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • handicappers are 14/66 (21.2%) for 24.1pts (+36.5%)
  • males are 13/57 (22.8%) for 28.1pts (+49.4%)
  • on the A/W : 9/34 (26.5%) for 5.07pts (+14.9%)
  • at odds of 9/2 and shorter : 12/31 (38.7%) for 14.6pts (+47%)
  • and after a short 6-10 day rest : 5/13 (38.5%) for 7.68pts (+59%)

...AND...from the above... male A/W handicappers priced at 9/2 and shorter are 6/15 (40% SR) for 8.56pts (+57% ROI), of which those who ran just 6-10 days earlier are 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.84pts (+161.4%)

...providing the basis for... a 1pt win bet on Fortune And Glory @ 5/2 BOG, a price offered by more then half a dozen firms as of 6.55pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 15th Sept 2018

Like all big race days we are on hand with the key TV trends this Saturday from Chester and Doncaster, including the William Hill St Leger - the final of the English Classics this turf season.

As always we've  got all the TV trends for you. Use these to find the best profiles of past winners and whittle down the runners.


Saturday 15th September 2018

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – William Hill Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV

15/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/16 – Won over 6f before
13/16 – Had run 5 or more times that season
13/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/16 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
11/16 – Won 4 or more times in their career
11/16 – Run at Doncaster previously
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Unplaced Favourites
8/16 – Placed in their last race
7/16 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 7 of last 10 years)
6/16 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/16 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/16 – Won last time out
Spring Loaded (12/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

2.25 – Alan Wood Plumbing Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

13/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/15 – Run 3 or more times that season
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Won over 7f before
12/15 – Won a Group race previously
12/15 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
10/15 – Unplaced in their most recent race
7/15 – Placed horses from stall 1
6/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 9 runnings
Acclaim (3/1) won the race in 2017
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

3.00 – Howcroft Industrial Supplies Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 - Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Had won over 7f before
13/17 – Won by a Feb or March foal
13/17 – Finished third or better last time out
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or t­­he Curragh last time out
8/17 – Raced 3 or more times that season
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Won by Godolphin
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/17 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/17 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
Seahenge (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/4
Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

3.35 – William Hill St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV

15/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
11/16 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
10/16 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/16 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Officially rated 109 to 115
9/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (2 won it)
4/16 – USA-bred winners
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/16 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 5 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/2

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

CHESTER Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

 

2.05 – Read Josephine Gordon Blog At Unibet.co.uk/blog Handicap (Cl3) (4yo+ 0-90) ITV

- Just one previous running
- Trainer Kevin Ryan won last year’s race
- Trainer Andrew Balding has a 22% (+43) strike-rate with his older horses at the track
- Trainer Ian Williams is only 3 from 47 (6%) with his older horses at the track

2.40 – 32Red.com Stand Cup (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f66y ITV

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Had won at least twice before
11/12 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/12 – Aged 5 or younger
10/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/12 – Had 2 or more runs that season
8/12 – Drawn in stall 3 or lower
8/12 – Won at Listed or Group class before
7/12 – Rated between 102-110
7/12 – Favourites that finished either 1st or 2nd
4/12 – Ran at York last time out
4/12 – Had run at Chester before
4/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/12 – Trained by Pat Chamings
Duretto (11/10 fav) won the race in 2017
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or lower

 

 

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 14th September 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.25 Ffos Las : Sylvias Mother @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Chased leaders, every chance disputing 2nd 2f out until over 1f out, went 2nd again inside final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 2 Optional Claiming Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £19407 to the winner...

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively short and simple today with a 6 yr old gelding who was a decent third (beaten by half a length) in a more valuable Class 2 contest at the Ebor meeting at York recently, but was then only 6th next/last time out at the Curragh when not getting the race run to suit him 13 days ago, so the ability is there, but things might need to fall better for him.

From a numbers perspective, trainer David O'Meara record over the last five Flat seasons with males racing over 6/7 furlongs after a short break of 4-20 days (ie rested but not rusty) currently stands at 74/511 (14.5% SR) for 60.2pts (+11.8% ROI), from which...

  • those who failed to win LTO are 61/444 (13.7%) for 71.9pts (+16.2%)
  • with the word "good" in the going description : 62/419 (14.8%) for 90.7pts (+21.7%)
  • those priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 56/288 (19.4%) for 54.6pts (+19%)
  • those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths LTO are 42/255 (16.5%) for 69.8pts (+27.4%)
  • in 4yo+ races : 15/114 (13.2%) for 59.4pts (+52.1%)
  • off a mark (OR) of 99-111 : 9/63 (14.3%) for 106.5pts (+169%)
  • and in a claimer : 2/8 (25%) for 7.2pts (+90%)

AND...from the above...those beaten by a neck to 6 lengths, 4-20 days earlier and are now priced at 15/8 to 9/1 are 26/129 (20.2% SR) for 27.6pts (+21.4% ROI) with 55% of them making the frame...

I'm well aware that stablemate Rousayan would also qualify for that stat, but our pick looks the better horse of the two and is boosted by the presence of the in-form Jamie Spencer in the saddle. Jamie rode a nice winner at Doncaster yesterday, but pitches up here instead today, which hopefully will be to our benefit.

Jamie has ridden 20 winners in 79 races (25.3% SR) over the past 30 days and a £10 stake on each of them would have realised a profit of £220 at an ROI of 27.8%, with even better numbers coming over shorter trips where judgement of the race pace is even more important, winning 13 of 44 (29.5%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs for a return of 30.93pts at an excellent ROI of 70.3%...

...prompting me to place... a 1pt win bet on Firmament @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG , prices offered by Ladbrokes & Coral respectively as of 5.05pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 14th Sept 2018

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Friday 14th September 2018

 

1.50 - Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f ITV4

13/15 – Never raced at Doncaster before
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
7/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Hills stable
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Music Box (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1

2.25 – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
12/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
11/15 – Won 1-2 times before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Foaled in April
6/15 – Ran at York last time
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
Heartache (6/4) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

3:00 – William Hill Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

15/15 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
10/15 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/15 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
6/15 – Ran at York last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
Time To Study (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

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3:35 – Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

15/17 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
15/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/17 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
12/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Ran at York last time out
10/17 – Previous Group race winners
10/17 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained in Ireland
Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

 

 

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 13th September 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.05 Uttoxeter : Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Mid-division, not fluent 3 out or 2 out, headway before last, kept on flat)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG  

In a 14-runner, Class 6 Nursery for 2yo over 5f on Good ground, worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

These 14 runners are collectively 1 win from 69 in their admittedly relatively short careers to date, yet our "girl" is 1 from 5, having scored in another 5f Nursery last time out when making all 20 days ago and I wouldn't be too surprised if she doesn't attempt the same thing from stall 1 today.

Her yard is in good form, as Joseph Tuite's runners have won 3 from 7 in the past 10 days, but then again he does tend to do well in September. His overall career record (ie since 2011) in the month of September shows 17 winners from 102 handicap races with the decent 16.7% strike rate producing profits of 62pts at a very healthy ROI of 60.8%, from which...

  • over trips no further than a mile : 16/79 (20.3%) for 81.2pts (+102.8%)
  • in Nursery contests : 4/16 (25%) for 19.83pts (+123.6%)
  • and at this minimum trip : 3/15 (20%) for 17.4pts (+116.1%)

Joseph doesn't actually send very many horses on the 150 mile trip West from Lambourn to Trimsaran, but he has still managed to land a couple of wins from seven handicap attempts over the last couple of years, so he's not a complete stranger to the winners' enclosure here in South Wales.

Also, since the start of 2015, he has done pretty well at getting his horses to land back to back successes, as his LTO winners are 14 from 65 (21.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+38.6% ROI) in handicap contests during that time with his 2 year olds winning 2 of 2 for 5.67pts (+283.5%).

Jason Watson will be in the saddle today and he's generally very good value for his 3lb claim, which negates the rise in weight for Sylvias Mother's win last time out and Jason has been averaging a strike rate of almost 20% for some time now, whilst this year alone when riding the favourite he has 28 wins from 68 (41.2% SR) for 6.46pts (+9.5% ROI), bucking the general trend of favourites.

Of those 68 rides...

  • over 5/6 furlongs : 9/20 (45%) for 6.83pts (+34.1%)
  • on 2yr olds : 3/4 (75%) for 3.53pts (+88.3%)
  • and on 2yr olds over 5/6 furlongs : 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 2.88pts (+95.9%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sylvias Mother @ 4/1 & 7/2 BOG, prices offered by Betfair & Paddy Power respectively as of 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.25 Leicester : Right About Now @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Led, pushed along over 2f, ridden and edged left over 1f out, headed approaching final furlong, kept on one pace )

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.05 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG  

In a 13-runner, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground, worth £3119 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner two starts ago at Perth (Class 4, 2m 0.5f) and then ran well in a 2-length defeat as runner-up at Sedgefield over the same trip next/last time out 13 days ago. These two runs make him a qualifier for my 1-234 microsystem...

...which essentially looks for NH handicappers who who won and then finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO (so the form reads 12,13 or 14) and now run after a rest shorter than three weeks.

There are a few other rules used to reduce the number of qualifiers down to a workable amount, such as... no use of the word firm in the going report, nothing beyond 3.5 miles, an OR of -2 to +11 from LTO, a class move of -2 to +2 and a distance move of -4.5f to +8.5f. These are purposefully broad ranges to eliminate chance or a suggestion of back-fitting.

Applying the rules has given 197 winners from 929 runners (21.2% SR) for profits of 292.2pts (+31.5% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this race in mind, they include...

  • 11-20 days since last run : 135/716 (18.9%) for 204.3pts (+28.5%)
  • no class move : 114/537 (21.2%) for 77pts (+14.4%)
  • hurdlers : 95/476 (20%) for 139.5pts (+29.3%)
  • runner-up LTO : 102/445 (22.9%) for 127.6pts (+28.7%)
  • same distance or -0.5f from LTO : 63/277 (22.7%) for 84.7pts (+30.6%)
  • beaten by 2L or less LTO : 61/216 (28.2%) for 106.2pts (+49.2%)
  • over 2m/2m0.5f : 46/197 (24.9%) for 144.7pts (+73.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 35/162 (21.6%) for 23.5pts (+14.6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 27/103 (26.2%) for 53.6pts (+52%)
  • in September : 16/63 (25.4%) for 13.9pts (+22.1%)
  • and here at Uttoxeter : 13/54 (24.1%) for 45pts (+83.4%)

I'll wrap up with a quick word about today's jockey, Danny Cook, because he rides this track very well, winning 10 of 49 races (20.4% SR) here since the start of 2015 generating profits of 92pts at an ROI of 187.7% and these include...

  • over hurdles : 6/22 (27.3%) for 101.9pts (+463%)
  • over this 2m trip : 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.54pts (+161.5%)
  • and over this 2m hurdles course and distance : 2/5 (40%) for 15.64pts (+312.8%)

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Strong Team @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by over half a dozen firms as of 6.05pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.05 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

2.40 Perth : Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 3/1 (Chased leaders on outside, lost place before 13th, well beaten from next)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.25 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Right About Now @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 11-runner, Class 6 Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground, worth £3493 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and 2 places from his last six runs, of which he's 2+2 from 5 over this 1m2f trip, including a win last time out at Yarmouth 16 days ago when piloted by today's jockey, Seamus Cronin, for the very first time.

His yard is great form right now, too, with 3 winners from six runners this month so far and trainer Chris Dwyer has a good record at getting these lower-grade horses to string wins together. Since the start of 2013, his LTO winners running at Class 5 to 7, priced shorter than 10/1 are 22 from 60 (36.7% SR) for 24.6pts (+41% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 20/48 (41.7%) for 32.3pts (+67.3%)
  • males are 14/38 (36.8%) for 25pts (+65.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/27 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+44.1%)
  • 11-20 days after that LTO win : 9/17 (52.9%) for 29.2pts (+171.8%)

Now, if Chris wants to take any prize money home this evening, all his eggs are in this one basket, as he has no other runners out today, but that hasn't gone too badly for him in the past. Once again since the start of 2013, when represented by just one handicapper on the day, his record is a very commendable 63 from 387 (16.3% SR) for profits of 121pts (+31.4% ROI), from which...

  • those making a road trip of less than 125 miles from Newmarket are 58/332 (17.5%) for 136pts (+41.1%)
  • those competing for a pot worth less than £4k are 41/191 (21.5%) for 125.7pts (+66.2%)
  • on the Flat : 21/136 (15.4%) for 63.4pts (+47%)
  • at Class 6 : 23/106 (21.7%) for 84.8pts (+80.8%)
  • in September : 7/31 (22.6%) for 57.7pts (+186%)
  • and here at Leicester : 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.3pts (+181.4%)

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Right About Now @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365 & SkyBet as of 5.05pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 5.25 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th September 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.55 Ascot : Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Tracked leading pair on inside, went 2nd on inner over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.40 Perth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG  

In an 8-runner, Class 4 Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m½f on Good ground, worth £4640 to the winner... 

Why?

On what looks a poor day of racing, this one caught my eye from a variety of different statistical angles, but I'll just share a few ideas with you (for the sake of brevity and your boredom!)

A switch to Gavin Patrick Cromwell's yard at the end of February seems to have re-ignited a spark in this 9 yr old mare, as she has 4 wins and 2 places from 9 runs since, including winning two of her three efforts over fences, the most recent being a win in another Class 4 Novice handicap Chase at Sedgefield 11 days ago under today's jockey Brian Hughes.

Mr Cromwell's runners are 3 from 15 (20% SR) over the last 7 days, whilst since the start of 2015, they are 4 from 14 (28.6% SR) for 15.92pts (+113.7% ROI) profit here at Perth. Admittedly a small sample size, but interestingly regarding today's pick/race...

  • handicappers are 3/9 (33.3%) for 13.27pts (+147.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/7 (42.9%) for 15.27pts (+218.1%)
  • at 3m/3m½f : 3/6 (50%) for 17.27pts (+345.3%)
  • chasers are 2/5 (40%) for 5.34pts (+106.8%)
  • and those racing after a short break of 11-20 days are 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.34pts (+244.7%)

Not numbers to hang your hat on, but surely more than coincidental?

Gavin does seem to fare better with his chasers than the rest of his string and again since the start of 2015, his record over fences stands at 20 winners from 116 (17.2% SR) for 39.7pts (+34.2% ROI) profit if backed blindly, with handicappers winning 20 of 89 (22.5%) for 66.7pts (74.9%). Not that we'd necessarily advocate blindly following anyone, but the following filters applied tot hose 89 Handicap chasers look both useful and profitable...

  • those who raced within the previous 45 days are 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.7pts (+82.9%)
  • at trips of 3m to 3m5½f : 10/42 (23.8%) for 58.8pts (+140.1%)
  • in the UK : 8/23 (34.8%) for 28.3pts (+123.1%)
  • 9 yr olds are 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.5pts (+122.6%)
  • in UK Class 4 contests : 3/9 (33.3%) for 4.01pts (+44.6%)
  • and here at Sedgefield : 1/1 for 1.67pts.

And for the last piece of data I'm sharing today, I'll move away from trainer specifics and look at a more general picture. Since the start of 2014 in UK Class 4 Handicap Chases, those runners priced at 6/4 to 7/1 racing 6 to 15 days after winning a Novice Chase last time out are 27 from 82 (32.9% SR) for 28.8pts (+35.1% ROI) and these include...

  • those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO are 27/79 (34.2%) for 31.8pts (+40.2%)
  • those now running in a Novice Handicap are 14/38 (36.8%) for 19.9pts (+52.4%)
  • those whose last run and current run were both Novice Hcp Chases are 14/36 (38.9%) for 21.9pts (+60.9%)
  • those racing over trips of 3m/3m½f are 8/18 (44.4%) for 20.3pts (+112.6%)
  • and those who ran (and won) in a Novice Handicap LTO and are now running in a Novice Handicap over a trip of 3m/3m½f are 4/8 (50%) for 15.6pts (+194.7%)

I could go on, but I'll leave you to take a look at the racecard for yourself, where you'll see that jockey Brian Hughes is in good form (14 & 30 icons) and that he has a good strike rate at this track recently (C1 icon) and so on...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Running In Heels @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by half a dozen firms as of 5.45pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Perth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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