We offer an extensive range of daily free horse racing tips, all of which can be found here.

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 27th May

FONTWELL – MAY 27

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £33.30 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 2 unplaced – 1 Non runner)

 

Unfortunately - the Tote’s computer blew a gasket (or something similar I guess) whereby the race to race details that I offer on a daily basis are not available.

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Don Lami) & 2 (Rothman)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Code Of Law), 3 (Spiritofchartwell) & 8 (Two Hoots)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Ringa Ding Ding) & 5 (Shillingsworth)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Kings Lad), 4 (Bugsy Malone) & 5 (Shady Glen)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Soulsaver), 10 (Zoltan Varga) & 8 (Cappielow Park)

Leg 6 (5.10): 2 (Kilmurvy) & 4 (Quick N’ Easy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Thunderstorms are expected to hit many parts of the south, west and the midlands during the course of Sunday & Monday, so ensure that you keep your eyes on the non-runner board this Bank Holiday weekend.

 

2.15: Anthony Honeyball enjoyed a great season which finished a few weeks ago and DON LAMI took little time in getting the trainer off the mark in quick time when scoring earlier this month.  Anthony’s five-year-old is the youngest horse in the field and probably possesses plenty of untapped potential which could be realised this term.  Connections have most to fear from ROTHMAN I’ll wager but if Aidan Coleman’s mount (Don Lami) can repeat the effort from the last day, there should only be one winner.

Favourite factor: The first two market leaders snared gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions before last year’s 2/1 favourite finished out with the washing in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

2/2—Don Lami (2 x good)

1/6—Rothman (soft)

 

2.50: Five of the eight winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones which eliminates the bottom three horses in the handicap if we take the stats seriously.  The pick of the relevant trio from my viewpoint is Two Hoots which could scramble into the frame I guess.  Horses towards the top of the list to home in on will hopefully prove to be CODE OF LAW and SPIRITOFCHARTWELL.  Neil Mulholland sends out the first named raider with trainer boasting a 19% record here at Fontwell down the years.  The ratio isn’t anything out of the ordinary, though a level stake loss of less than nine points via 268 runners at the track is no mean feat.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.  Last year’s 10/11 favourite was withdrawn at the start before a new market could be formed.  Thankfully for ‘Potters’ who had invested in the jolly, the second favourite sneaked into the frame.  In case you are a new reader who is just learning the (Placepot) ropes, any units on a market leader which becomes a non-runner automatically transfers onto the second favourite.  In the case of joint or co favourites, the transfer applies to the horse with the lowest number on the race card i.e. horse number seven as opposed to number twelve.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

3/9—Spiritofchartwell (good – good to soft – soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/5—Code Of Law (good to firm)

 

3.25: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4-3 thus far, with just one contest having escaped their clutches to date.  Paul Nicholls has long since taken note of such ‘edges’ and RINGA DING DING can be fancied to become winner number 155 at Fontwell during Paul’s outstanding career, with the trainer boasting a 33% strike rate at this venue down the years.  Paul will not be losing any sleep over these rivals, the pick of which will probably prove to be fellow five-year-old SHILLINGSWORTH.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last seven renewals, whilst seven market leaders have finished in the frame via eight contests.  The only 'jolly' to miss out was a Paul Nicholls favourite which was sent off at the shortest price of all the favourites at 4/11.

 

4.00: Even though only five runners have been declared, this could arguably be considered the toughest race on the card, especially from a Placepot perspective given the nature of its ‘short field’ status.  All five runners have won within the last forty days to add interest to proceedings and my trio against the field consists of KINGS LAD, BUGSY MALONE and SHADY GLEN.  Confidence would grow for Kings Lad if plenty of rain fell at the West Sussex venue.  Although I have covered 60% of the field, I’m not overly confident about the outcome, a thought which would be extended should a non-runner rear its ugly head, turning the contest into a ‘win only’ event from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: Only three of the six favourites have gained Placepot positions via one gold medal and two of the silver variety. That said, ten of the twelve available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off at a top price of 7/1.

Fontwell record of the two course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/3—Kings Lad (heavy)

3/9—Antony (2 x good & soft)

 

4.35: SOULSAVER is the second (and last) runner on the card for Anthony Honeyball who was mentioned earlier in despatches.  Anthony has saddled far more winners at Fontwell (35 in total) than at any other venue in the land and both of his runners here on Sunday boast obvious claims.  Offering a 50% strike rate at the track, SOULSAVER would not want the ground to become too soft but that said, his stamina would come into play which might negate the issue.  Others for consideration include ZOLTAN VARGA and CAPPIELOW PARK on the best of his form.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (9/2**) favourite.

Fontwell record of the course winner in the fifth leg of our favourite wager:

2/4—Soulsaver (good & good to soft)

 

5.10: I’m banking on the some of the forecast rain to fall in selecting KILMURVY as one of my two ‘selections’ in the last leg, opting for QUICK N’EASY as my back-up horse with just two horses to offer, given that I used up plenty of Placepot positions in my permutation earlier on the card.  Never Learn is chosen as the reserve nomination.  If the ‘Almighty’ is not too busy ‘moving his furniture around’ on Sunday, s/he might insist on all of the ‘dead eight’ declarations taking part in what could otherwise become a nightmare finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite snared a Placepot position behind the 16/1 winner, before last year’s 2/1 market leader failed to follow suit.

Fontwell record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Roparta Avenue (good)

1/4—Hard To Rock (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 26th May

CHESTER – MAY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £15.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 93.3% units went through – 9/4 – 7/1 – 11/10*

Race 2: 54.5% of the remaining units when through – 4/1* - 15/2 – 9/2

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 50/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 50.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 5/1 – 5/1 (2/1)

Race 5: 82.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* - 10/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 – 20/1 – 16/1 (2 x 5/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Dragon Moon) & 7 (Wind Storm)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Awesome), 5 (Lamya) & 10 (Stewardess)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (South Seas), 6 (Sabador) & 4 (Muntadab)

Leg 4 (3.30): 8 (Precision), 3 (Humble Hero) & 1 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (4.05): 6 (Key To Note) & 3 (Port Of Laith)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Jabbarr), 1 (Desert Ruler) & 6 (Be Perfect)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: DRAGON MOON is asked to give eleven pounds to WIND STORM and the concession might be too much for Richard Hannon’s recent Lingfield winner, despite the fact that the form was franked by Crossing The Line on Thursday.  Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor filly holds two other entries next week but with only five other rivals to beat, I doubt that Ralph will change his mind, even with WIND STORM having ‘trap six’ to overcome in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify via Placepot and each way perspectives.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chester.

 

2.20: If there is one word in the dictionary which dives me crackers it’s AWESOME.  Not the actual word you understand, it’s the way that Americans pronounce the term, especially as the word is (seemingly) included in every other sentence they speak!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Clive Cox’s Bahamian Bounty filly should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, though her number nine stall tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  Better housed horses such as LAMYA (1/10) and STEWARDESS (4) can make things interesting in the short straight.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Chester card.

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.55: All three winners have carried weights between 8-10 & 9-1 and two horses ‘qualify’ via the weight stats on this occasion, namely, SABADOR and SOUND ADVICE.  Roger Fell is a shrewd trainer and no mistake and his recent 4/10 strike rate catches the eye, especially having secured 13 points of level stake profit during the period.  Roger’s raider MUNTADAB would have been the third qualifier (via the weights) but for a five pound claimer having been booked to ride.  I’m going to add MUNTADAB into the equation given Roger’s great form of late.  The other horse to catch the eye is SOUTH SEAS who has dropped into the positive ‘sector’ of the handicap via another apprentice booking, this time being made by trainer Andrew Balding.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (5/6) winner.

Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Above The Rest (good to soft)

4/10—Sound Advice (3 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Baraweez (good)

1/1—The Feathered Nest (good)

2/7—Penwortham (2 x good)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight contests, with seven winners carrying a minimum weight of 8-11.  Putting the stats and facts together, PRECISION and HUMBLE HERO stand out from the crowd from my viewpoint.  The pair is listed in order of preference on account of the draw, five over nine in a twelve runner field.  How many horses will be withdrawn because of ‘car park’ positions in the stalls remains to be seen.  NIGHT OF GLORY (1) is offered the reserve nomination, though having only had one ride around the track, five pound claimer Jason Watson will have to be on top form, albeit the young pilot has ridden 28 winners to date.

Favourite factor: All eight race during the last decade have failed to produce a winning favourite, with gold medallists ranging between 5/2 and 25/1 during the period, creating a successful average price of 11/2.  The last five market leaders have all finished out with the washing.

Chester record of the five course winners in the field:

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

1/1—Tor (good to soft)

1/4—Kajaki (heavy)

1/17—Gabrial’s King (good)

2/8—Zenafire (good & good to soft)

 

4.05: With Tom Dascombe’s local newcomer Smoki Smoka still “looking a bit weak’ back in the spring via a stable tour, I’m inclined to opt for Mark Johnston’s experienced pair PORT OF LEITH and KEY TO POWER against their four rivals in a juvenile event which should not prove difficult to win. Mark’s Slade Power filly KEY TO NOTE beat seven others home on debut when finding one too good on her first day at school at Thirsk.  Any amount of normal improvement (whatever that is) from race one to two should see her home with something to spare from trap four.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.40: With over 53% of Iain Jardine’s winners on the flat being secured at the three tracks which house racing on the level in Scotland, we have to tread carefully when the trainer ventures ‘south’ but Ian might snare his third success on the Roodee with JABBAARR in our final heat.  Iain has become a class act and Phillip Makin’s mount looks set to take maximum advantage of his trap one position.  DESERT RULER (3/10) and BE PERFECT (4) can chase home the selection.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Chester programme.

Chester record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Be Perfect (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Stat of the Day, 26th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

8.30 Pontefact : Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Steadied start, in rear, switched wide into straight 2f out, never on terms)

Next up is Saturday's...

3.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heartache @ 9/2 BOG 

An 8-runner, Group 2 contest (Sandy Lane Stakes) for 3yo over 6f on Good To Soft ground (watering, even though there's heavy rain in the area) worth £51039 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, guys (and gals, of course!), late start today, but the usual amount of research has been done, but I'll cut down on the waffle!

A 3 yr old filly (so gets a useful 3lbs allowance) making her seasonal return some 253 days after completing a perfect 3 from 3 debut season as a 2yo.

Amongst those runs were two wins at this Gr 2 level including one (LTO) at Doncaster where she stayed on really well on similarly good to soft ground as she'll face today. She looked like she'd get further than that day's 5f and being another year stronger, I'd expect her to be well suited by the 6f on offer here.

Trainer Clive Cox won this race last year and comes here in good form with 11 winners from 56 (19.6% SR) for profits of 14.6pts (+26% ROI) over the last 30 days, including...

  • at 5 to 7 furlongs : 9/36 (25%) for 21.3pts (+59.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.32pts (+18.8%)

Now although Clive had the winner of this race last year, he doesn't send many runners to this venue, but those that come tend to go well with 9 winners from 51 (17.7%) generating 43.9pts profit at an ROI of 86.2% since the start of 2013, from which...

  • over 6f course and distance : 5/20 (25%) for 48.8pts (+244%)
  • at Class 1 : 4/14 (28.6%) for 7.5pts (+53.4%_
  • and on good to soft : 3/10 (30%) for 44.7pts (+447%)

And for those of you concerned about the horse's 253 days off track, Clive's runners returning from breaks of 8 to 24 months are 10 from 40 (25% SR) for 49.9pts (+124.7% ROI) since the start of 2016, from which...

  • he's 5/12 (41.7%) for 27.5pts (+229.5%) on May
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 31.1pts (+444.7%) at Class 1

Clive also has a good record with LTO winners, but as this filly has been off track so long since her LTO win, I didn't think thise stats were as relevant as they could be today...

...but we've already definitiely enough for...a 1pt win bet on Heartache @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 10.30pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 26th May 2018

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in eight races across three venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park.
As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Saturday 26th May 2018

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.55 – Netbet Mobile Bet10Get10 Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV4

13/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/14 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/14 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
5/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/14 – Won last time out
First Sitting won the race in 2017
Spark Plug was second in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 17/2

 

2.30 – Netbet Sport Handicap (3yo) Cl2 7f ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 - returned 9/2 to 12/1
5/5 – Came from stalls 2-6 (inc)
5/5 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
5/5 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
4/5 - carried between 8-0 and 8-4
3/5 – Rated between 77-81
3/5 – Won just once before
3/5 – Winners from stall 3
2/5 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/5 winning favourites
Richard Hannon, Mark Johnston (2), Andrew Balding and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
Trainer William Haggas has a 25% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden has a 20% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer George Scott is 2 from 6 with his 3 years-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is just 2 from 26 with his 3 year-olds at the track
The average SP in the last 5 runnings is 8/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

3.05 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer William Haggas has a 23% (+28) record with his 4 year-olds at the track
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 18% record (+17) with his 4 year-olds at the track

 

3.40 – Unibet Sprint Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/4 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
3/4 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/4 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
3/4 – Didn’t win last time out
3/4 – Winning distance ½ length or less
2/4 – Aged 4 years-old
1/4 – Winning favourites
Copper Knight win the race 12 months ago
Trainer Dave Griffiths has a 20% strike-rate with this older horses at the track
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 3 from 134 (2%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 11 from 236 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan is just 3 from 94 (3%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 2 from 48 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tim Easterby is just 9 from 171 (5%) with his older horses at the track

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.15 – Amix Ready Mixed Concrete Handicap Cl2 2m45y ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Winners aged 4 or 5
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
4/4 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/4 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
4/4 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
4/4 – Unplaced favourites
4/4 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
3/4 – Rated between 91-98
No winning favourite yet
Trainers Mark Johnston, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.50 - Amix Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

15/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/15 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
12/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/15 – Placed last time out
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
5/15 – Won last time out¬
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1

 

3.25 – Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

14/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
13/14 – Had won over 6f before
12/14 – Had won between 1-3 times before
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – From stall 5 or higher
8/14 – Winning favourites
6/14 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/14 – Raced at York last time
2/14 – Trained by William Haggas
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015

 

4.00 – Armstrong Aggregates Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/16 – Trained in the UK
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Raced within the last 2 months
10/16 – Placed third or better last time out
9/16 – Favourites that were placed
9/16 – Had won a Group race before
9/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won their latest race
2/16 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Clive Cox (last 2 runnings)
2/16 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (last 2 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 13/2
6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Placepot Pointers – Friday 25th May

PONTEFRACT – MAY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £16.20 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 53.9% units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 16/1 (11/4**)

Race 2: 30.4% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 25/1 – 8/1

Race 3: 54.3% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* (Win only)

Race 4: 38.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2* - 16/1 – 8/1

Race 5: 72.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 7/4*

Race 6: 97.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/2 & 7/4 (Fav W/D)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (6.30): 10 (Kings Academy), 2 (Heir Of Excitement), 4 (Laqab) & 1 (Zlatan)

Leg 2 (7.00): 3 (New Society) & 5 (Alfred Richardson)

Leg 3 (7.30): 3 (Victory Command) & 1 (Celebrity Dancer)

Leg 4 (8.00): 9 (Foxtrot Night), 3 (Henley) & 7 (Alsvinder)

Leg 5 (8.30): 10 (Sempre Presto), 9 (Shes Queen) & 3 (Savannah Moon)

Leg 6 (9.00): 2 (Angels) & 1 (Breaking Records)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.30: Four-year-olds have won six of the eleven races contested during the last twelve years, whilst nine gold medallists carried nine stones or more. Vintage representatives completely dominated the finish two years ago, with two of the three horses filling the frame carrying the relevant weights.  KINGS ACADEMY (drawn 4/17 – low numbers best at Pontefract) is close enough to the rail to figure prominently, whilst others to consider include HEIR OF EXCITEMENT (10), LAQAB (2) and ZLATAN (7) in the most difficult race on the card to assess for openers.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders.

Pontfract record of the four course winners in the opening event:

1/4—Pumaflor (good)

2/12—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

1/5—Beverley Bullet (soft)

1/4—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

7.00: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests, with NEW SOCIETY and ALFRED RICHARDSON potentially representing the vintage to good effect this time around.  The two horses are listed in order of preference, though five-year-old ICELAND has attracted overnight support which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have claimed eight of the last ten contests, whilst eight of the last fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Pontefract record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/5—Croquembouche (good)

1/2—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

1/2—Icefall (good to firm)

 

7.30: I highlighted Mark Johnston’s (successful) 5/1 chance Rufus King to big effect twelve months ago and with the trainer coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around, VICTORY COMMAND is the first nomination for the team sheet.  I don’t possess quite the same enthusiasm as I did last year, mainly because of the declaration of CELEBRITY DANCER who scored here on debut under soft conditions.  Although “good to firm” was the call by the officials first thing this morning, rain is set to hit Pontefract Park whereby you might want to take that statement with the proverbial pinch of salt.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by since the last two favourites scored for Mark Johnston. Eight of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst horses returned at a top price of 9/2 have secured eight of the eleven contests.

Pontefract record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Celebrity Dancer (soft)

 

8.00: Much depends on which way the wind blows here in terms of how much rain falls throughout the day.  Rain would very much suit FOXTROT KNIGHT and having to declare my cards 13 hours in advance of the contest, I will take a chance that enough of the wet stuff will emerge to increase his chance.  Others to consider include ALSVINDER (cautionary note; performs better on A/W surfaces) and HENLEY.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/2 market leader was ‘short headed’ before last year’s favourite made amends by going one better that the same price.

Pontefract record of the two course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Foxtrot Knight (soft)

2/4—Grandad’s World (good & good to soft)

 

8.30: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals whereby it is surprising to say the least that just two vintage raiders have been declared this time around.   SEMPRE PRESTO and SHES QUEEN should both be there or thereabouts as the jockeys raise their whips though if rain falls to half decent effect, SAVANNAH MOON would have to enter calculations.

Favourite factor: Three winning favourites have been recorded via eleven renewals during the last twelve years, with four of the last eight market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.

Pontefract record of the course winner in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/1—Savannah Moon (soft)

 

9.00: ANGELS and BREAKING RECORDS should have the finish to themselves and with Tim Easterby in high spirits after his victory in the National Stakes at Sandown last night, the trainer could be partying the night away with ANGELS having added to the tally in more ‘local’ surroundings.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new contest on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Race of the Day, 25th May 2018

Another video Race of the Day today. As I say, this is NOT a daily thing, but I'm happy to post something - either text/image or video - when I have the time. This was a race I was keen to look at anyway. See what you think...

Matt


Stat of the Day, 25th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)

Next up is Friday's...

8.30 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner... 

Why?

A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.

Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan's charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today's jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.

Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.

I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
  • those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
  • in May/June  :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
  • females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
  • ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
  • in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
  • and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)

AND...if you did want a small "bet and forget" micro, you could back...LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG  which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 24th May

SANDOWN – MAY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £773.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 43.9% units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 15/2 (9/2)

Race 2: 47.4% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 7/4*

Race 3: 72.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/5* & 7/1

Race 4: 17.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 14.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 11/2 (5/6)

Race 6: 24.5% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 6/1 – 9/1 (5/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 6 (What A Welcome), 3 (Garbanzo) & 1 (Psychotic)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Kinks), 9 (Wedding Date) & 5 (Conchek)

Leg 3 (7.05): 9 (Without Parole) & 5 (Regal Reality)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (Weekender), 6 (Mount Moriah) & 1 (Magic Circle)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Poet’s Word) & 4 (Larraib)

Leg 6 (8.40): 8 (Kynren), 7 (Mountain Angel) & 5 (Kynren)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 18 of the 31 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six of the last nine winners (16/1-10/1-7/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are eight representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be WHAT A WELCOME and GARBANZO who was attracting a fair amount of support when offered in double figures in the dead of night, most of which from an each way perspective I’ll wager. If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, PSYCHOTIC could prove to an interesting contender, offered at 20/1 in a place this morning.

Favourite factor: The eleven favourites thus far have snared five gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race: 

1/4—Tobacco Road (soft)

1/5—Zambeasy (good)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

6.35: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last eleven renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason why the team was not represented last year, though WEDDING DATE has been declared this time around.  Both Michael Bell (ARTAIR) and Mick Channon (KINKS) were sweet on their juveniles during stable tours earlier in the year and they have both proved their respective trainers right by scoring already.  Indeed, KINKS is having his fourth race coming here on a hat trick having been withdrawn from the ‘Lily Agnes’ at Chester the other week.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby KONCHEK is included into the equation in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Five of the last twenty favourites have won whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last twelve winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin), given Michael's ten successes down the years.  These stats bode well for stable representatives GABR and REGAL REALITY who have both posted wins win moisture in the ground, should that scenario ensue this evening with plenty of rain heading Sandown’s way according to the latest radar readings. That all said, WITHOUT PAROLE should take the beating if John Gosden’s Frankel colt can reproduce anything like the form of his two assignments thus far, which were both won by six lengths margins.  Vintager looks best of the rest, especially if the forecast rain arrives on cue.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty one years. Fourteen of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Heron Stakes: 

1/1—Petrus (good to firm)

 

7.35: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 33 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  John Gosden looks set for a good evening having declared his four-year-old Frankel colt WEEKENDER, though fellow vintage representative MOUNT MARIAH offers a threat I’ll wager, whilst money has been pouring on the Chester Cup winner MAGIC CIRCLE overnight.  David Simcock’s grand old servant Sheikhzayedroad will offer his consistent form likely as not, whilst Time To Study would have won a lesser renewal in the past but this test looks harsh enough from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include five winners.

 

8.10: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 17 of the last 21 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 14 victories during the extended study period, which includes twelve of the last sixteen contests.  LARRAIB is the lone four-year-old in the field (wake up trainers), though connections would not have been pleased (when searching out weather forecasts) to see rain on the horizon.  Sir Michael Stoute has won three of the last four renewals in which the stable was represented and in POET’S WORD, the trainer has a leading chance of improving the ratio still further.  Although having secured a 2/2 record on fast ground to date, Michael’s five-year-old representative boasts a gold and a silver medal from just two assignments under good to soft conditions, whereby the Poet’s Voice raider seems to have all eventualities covered.  Fabricate looks sure to offer up his consistent form but this looks a warm heat and then some.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 18 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 25 gold medals (including nine of the last sixteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion could prove to be FASTER (especially if the rain arrives), MOUNTAIN ANGEL and KYNREN in a fascinating Placepot finale.  Connections of all three horses will be buoyed by the prospect of rain, whilst CHIEFOFCHIEFS is offered up as the reserve nomination. As ever was the case, this is a fabulous card and at last, viewers with just terrestrial television to call on can now watch the spectacle unfold.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 21 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last fourteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of the four course winners in the Placepot finale: 

3/5—Chevalier (2 x good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—First Selection (good)

1/1—Fastar (good)

1/3—Frank Bridge (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 24th May 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

2.30 Ayr : Lilys Prince @ 5/1 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong)

Next up is Thursday's...

6.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG 

A 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap (4yo+) over 1m on Polytrack worth £4399 to the winner...

Why?

An 8 yr old gelding who has won three times at this track and three times at today's trip. In fact, he actually has three wins and one place from nine efforts over course and distance and has now slipped back to a mark just a pound higher than his last win here.

His trainer Chris Dwyer is 91/571 (15.9% SR) for 163.3pts (+28.6% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2013, including 29 winners from 163 (17.8%) for 121.2pts (+74.4%) here at Chelmsford.

And of those 163 Chelmsford handicappers...

  • those last seen 10 to 50 days earlier are 24/120 (20%) for 144.8pts (+120.7%)
  • males are 17/101 (16.8%) for 112.7pts (+111.6%)
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 23/61 (37.7%) for 34.4pts (+56.4%)
  • those racing over 7f/1m are 12/54 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+266%)
  • Class5 runners are 9/43 (20.9%) for 1.04pts (+2.4%)
  • those sent off as favourite are 9/20 (45%) for 4.93pts (+24.65%)
  • and those ridden by today's jockey Lewis Edmunds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.8pts (+97.7%)

...and this simple approach gives us...a 1pt win bet on Foie Gras @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 23rd May

AYR – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8,132.90 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.8% units went through – 10/1 – 7/2** - 14/1 (7/2**)

Race 2: 3.0% of the remaining units when through – 14/1 -14/1-28/1 (6/5)

Race 3: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/1** - 8/1 – 3/1**

Race 4: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 14/1 – 14/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 70.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 6: 20.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 14/1 – 8/1 (7/2)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Two Blondes) & 7 (Dame Freya Stark)

Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Sienna Dream), 2 (Mo Henry) & 10 (Brendan)

Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Naples Bay), 4 (Star Cracker) & 8 (Cheeni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Club Wexford) & 1 (Helovaplan)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Powerallied), 2 (Tanasoq) & 5 (Oriental Lily)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Wingingit) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Jedd O’Keefe is not the first trainer you think of where juveniles are concerned, though it’s worth noting that Jedd has saddled 26 two year-old winners down the years.  That said, these young horses have only offered the trainer a 6% strike rate though before you write off the chance of his Dark Angel newcomer DEVILS ANGEL, it’s as well to note that Jedd has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect.  Mick Channon did yours truly another great favour yesterday with his 16/1 two-year-old winner (somehow returned at 20/1 on the Tote) at Chepstow, with TWO BLONDES looking the part in this grade/company.  Mick might still be kicking himself for not recalling his own words during a stable tour when suggesting that for all his potential, the trainer might wait for the six furlong races to emerge in the two-year-old sector.  Mick was lured into an Ascot contest and whilst the Dragon Pulse colt ran well enough over the minimum trip at a big price, this sixth furlong looks sure to suit. Mark Johnston’s newcomer DAME FREYA STARK appears to be the main threat.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, without winning the relevant event.

 

2.30: Jim Goldie has been represented in three of the four renewals thus far securing victories at 33/1 and 14/1 thus far, notwithstanding being responsible for a beaten 4/1 joint favourite!  For the record, Jim’s 14/1 winner was backed up by the silver medallist stable companion, producing a 197/1 Exacta forecast on one occasion!  Jim saddles three outsiders in the first division of the event this time around, namely BRENDAN, FINTRY FLIER and JESSIE ALLAN. Likelier winners at the other end of the market include SIENNA DREAM and MO HENRY.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the second event on the card:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/6—Mo Henry (good to firm)

 

3.05: This is second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same Jim Goldie stats apply.  Jim has offered the green light to STAR CRACKER, GONINODAETHAT (winner of one of the divisions last year) and CHEENI in heat two. If you care to cast the trio aside, I suspect you will opt for NAPLES BAY with trainer John Quinn continuing his decent form following his two big priced winners at York last week from just three runners at the Dante festival.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (3/1**) winner.

Record of course winner in the third contest:

2/12—Star Cracker (good to soft & soft)

8/46—Goninodaethat (3 x soft – 2 x good – 2 x good to soft – good to firm)

1/9—Cheeni (good)

 

3.35: Roger Fell has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect, securing level stake profits of 13 points in the bargain.  This much underrated trainer has declared CLUB WEXFORD with definite claims here, with connections possibly having most to fear from HELOVAPLAN and (possibly) KHARBETATION.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged for Jim Goldie who you can rarely keep out of the headlines at this venue!

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/4—Strong Steps

3/14—Royal Regent (3 x soft)

2/6—Al Khan (good to firm & good to soft)

 

4.05: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, Jim has saddled winners in this event on the card at 11/1 and 5/1.  The great thing about trainers like Jim is that they are not afraid to ‘tilt at windmills’ whereby his outsider of the party here (ORIENTAL LILY) still warrants respect despite the odds on offer. POWERALLIED and TANASOQ are the preferred duo from the other end of the market.  Having made a study of horses which ran the day after winning several years ago, I decided that is was usually best to lay rather than play.  That was some time ago, though I’m opting for the same stance regarding yesterday’s course winner Plough Boy – win, lose or draw.  I should add (covering myself I guess) that horses that ran at the same venue the next day had a slightly better strike rate than those that raced elsewhere.

Favourite factor: Only three of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame, though two of them at least won their respective events at odds of 5/1 & 3/1**.

 

4.35: Andrew Balding sends his runners up to Ayr to half decent effect in the main, with the trainer boasting a 19% strike rate at the track via seven winners down the years.  These figures are enhanced by the fact that Andrew’s gold medallists have created a level stake profit of the thick end of 14 points.  Andrew has declared WINGINGIT in our final race and Ron Hornby’s mount is the first name on the team sheet from a Placepot perspective.  TITI MAKFI put in a rare lifeless performance the last day but hailing from the Mark Johnston yard, the Makfi filly is just as likely to bounce back to her previous good form.  There is the point to take into account that Mark’s runners were suffering from a slight dip in form in general terms at the time of her defeat.

Favourite factor: Both of the (3/1 &* 1/2) favourites have won their respective events thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Euro Nightmare (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2018

Tuesday's Runner was...

7.40 Huntingdon : Not A Role Model @ 5/2 non-runner (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

Our third go at starting the new week is via Wednesday's...

2.30 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG 

A 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap (3yo+) over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

An interesting booking here for an 8 yr old gelding making a UK debut after as many as 74 runs in Ireland, including a decent third place finish at Cork just five days ago.

Of those runs in Ireland, he is...

  • 5/43 (11.6%) in fields of 12-15 runners
  • 5/25 (20%) over a 6f trip
  • 2/7 (28.6%) within a week of his last run
  • and also 2/7 (28.6%) in the month of May.

He should benefit from Ben Curtis getting ride today, as Ben is not only in good nick right now (rode a winner here for today's trainer yesterday), but he also rides the Ayr track well, winning 6 of 29 (20.7% SR) since the start of the 2016 season.

But the real numbers are derived from our horse making a first start in the UK, because since the start of 201, in UK Flat handicaps, Irish bred horses who last ran in Ireland are 74/634 (11.7% SR) for 141.5pts (+22.3% ROI) backed blindly, whilst in the context of this race, those 634 "Irish raiders" are...

  • 58/365 (15.9%) for 194.7pts (+53.3%) at Classes 4 to 6
  • 63/343 (18.4%) for 65.1pts (+19%) at odds of 5/4 to 10/1
  • 39/261 (14.9%) for 158.2pts (+60.6%) 4 to 25 days since they last ran
  • 31/183 (16.9%) for 128.7pts (+70.4%) here in Scotland
  • 24/168 (14.3%) for 56.7pts (+33.7%) in the months of April/May
  • 28/149 (18.8%) for 24.7pts (+16.6%) at Class 6
  • 22/124 (17.7%) for 33.5pts (+27%) lost by just 0.25 to 3 lengths LTO
  • 11/107 (10.3%) for 45.6pts (+42.6%) over a 6f trip
  • and 18/107 (16.8%) for 25.4pts (+23.7%) who finished 2nd or 3rd LTO.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lilys Prince @ 5/1 BOG  which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sandown TV Trends: Thurs 24th May 18

A real treat for horse racing fans this Thursday as the ITV cameras are heading to Sandown’s big evening fixture that includes the Group 3 races – the Brigadier Gerard Stakes & Henry II Stakes.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with the key trends for all four of the LIVE races – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Thursday 24th May 2018

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

6.35 – Matchbook Commission Free On All Sports National Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4

10/10 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
10/10 – Had no more than 3 career runs
9/10 – Returned 11/1
9/10 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
9/10 – Won no more than twice before
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
8/10 – Had won over 5f before
8/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
8/10 – Winners from stalls 1-4
7/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
4/10 – Winners from stall 2
2/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

7.05 – Matchbook Is Commission Free Heron Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
10/10 – Won no more than twice before
9/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Won over 7f or 1m before
8/10 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
8/10 – Had no more than 5 career runs
8/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top three
7/10 – Rated between 98 and 104
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of last 4)
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Had won at the course before
3/10 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

7.35 – Matchbook VIP Henry II Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4

10/10 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
9/10 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
9/10 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
8/10 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Aged 6 or younger
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10 – Rated between 109 and 117
7/10 – Won at least 6 times in the past
7/10 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
6/10 – Won over at least 2m before
5/10 – Had run at the course before
4/10 – Winners from stall 5
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

8.10 – Matchbook Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) Cl (4yo+) 1m2f ITV4

15/15 – Had won at least twice before
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had won a Group or Listed race before
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
10/15 – Rated 111 or higher
8/15 – Had won a Group Race before
8/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
6/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of last 7)
2/15 – Raced at the Curragh last time out
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 5/1

 

 

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 22nd May

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £672.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 6.9% units went through – 10/1 & 8/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 41.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 14/1 3/1*

Race 3: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 6/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 34.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 5/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 5: 34.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 9/4 – 9/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 4/1* - 8/1

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Darrik) & 1 (Barend Boy)

Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Ibraz), 6 (Infastructure) & 1 (Hasanoanda)

Leg 3 (2.55): 10 (Viceroy Mac), 9 (Tebay) & 7 (Mashaheer)

Leg 4 (3.25): 4 (Fabulous Red), 3 (Caiya) & 1 (Verandah)

Leg 5 (4.00): 1 (Affina), 3 (Sea Youmzain) & 7 (Storm Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Airton) & 2 (Really Super)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BAREND BOY probably deserves to get his head in front after two likeable efforts thus far though in DAARIK, Hugo Palmer’s raider once again finds a tough cookie to beat, in all probability.  The exchanges (at the time of writing) suggests that the latter named John Gosden raider might have to give way to experience on this occasion but that said, jungle drums have been beating for Jim Crowley’s mount for some time.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader (Panphobia – the fear of everything) finished out with the washing.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.20: History Writer was weak on the exchanges in the dead of night, whereby preference is offer to IBRAZ and INFASTRUCTURE before the market takes any real shape.  I’m not quite sure what to make of HASANOANDA as an individual but one thing I for certain, his trainer (John Gosden) knows the time of day at every level of the sport whereby it could prove churlish in the extreme to leave the Lingfield (A/W) winner out of the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham card.

 

2.55: “Dragons Voice jumps off the page to a fashion here” is how I started my analysis of this race twelve months ago before Fran Berry’s mount scored at 8/1. Seeking to follow up in similar fashion, I’m offering a chance to VICEROY MAC who has been the subject of overnight support at around the same price.  David Loughane’s Sepoy gelding was highly tried at Ascot on his seasonal debut recently and stepping down to this level could bring about a much improved effort.  Others for the Placepot mix include TEBAY and MASHAHEER.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Six of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

3.25: As readers can testify to their cost (via a big priced selection the other week at Chester), I find it difficult to know when Ed Dunlop is about to strike with his horses but that said, FABULOUS RED demands to be in the mix here from my viewpoint.  If I am going to hold a post-race self-imposed enquiry on my hands, it will probably mean that I have under estimated the chances of CAIYA and VERANDAH. John Gosden’s latter named raider might not be out of the mix from a win perspective despite top weight, whilst CAIYA is unbeaten thus far via three assignments, whereby it’s difficult to put a line through Eve Johnson Houghton’s fast improving Casamento filly.

Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Nottingham programme.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Daddies Girl (good to soft)

 

4.00: Eight of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at just 7/1.  AFFINA is attracting support at the time of writing and if Simon Chrisford has his Kodiac filly anywhere near cherry ripe for her seasonal debut, James Doyle’s mount should be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  That comment would normally mean that I would just add one more horse in my mix, but as this is potentially a ‘dead eight’ event, I’m looking for two additions in fear of a non runner rearing its ugly head.  The pin has fallen on the pair of SEA YOUMZAIN and STORM JAZZ.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.35: Five-year-olds have won four of the nine contests thus far without having been represented in two of the missing years.  AIRTON is the lone vintage representative on this occasion and is the first name on the team sheet accordingly.  James Bethell’s Champ Elesees gelding represents a yard which has celebrated two (12/1 & 7/1) winners of late and it’s worth noting that Jim Crowley’s mount has been the subject of some support overnight.  That same comment also applies to REALLY SUPER who was overpriced in double figures from my viewpoint, albeit I respect my own ‘favourite figures’ below which suggests that a short priced entry should win the contest.  The problem is that I don’t fancy any of the said declarations!

Favourite factor: The nine favourites to date have secured five gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

5/18—Hallstatt (3 x good & 2 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2018

Monday's Runner was...

3.05 Redcar : Northandsouth @ 3/1 BOG non-runner (Self Cert : Bruised Foot)

I'm a bit late tonight after spending the afternoon with my nan who is 96 today, but our second go at starting the new week is via Tuesday's...

7.40 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG non-runner at 8.40am! (Self Cert : Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4, 2m4f Handicap Chase  (5yo+) on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?

N/A, sadly.

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Not A Role Model @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.35pm on Monday, althought those with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

 

7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Your first 30 days for just £1