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Stat of the Day, 11th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.05 Bath : Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up towards rear, pushed along over 1f out, stayed on final furlong, nearest finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Canagat @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo over 1m on Tapeta worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

According to the racecard, this 3 yr old colt takes a drop in class from his last run 17 days ago and is of immediate interest, because...

He's drawn is stall 4 today and a quick glance at the pace/draw heat map shows...

I don't think any of the above needs explaining (but please do ask if something is unclear, I don't bite), whilst the horse himself has already proved to like an artificial surface...

He has finished 311 on the A/W so far, including one here at Newcastle (also Class 4 with Hollie Doyle on board, but over 7f two starts ago).

And the only thing I'm going to add to all of the evidence above is that of the Trainer/Jockey record of 6 wins from 13 here at Newcastle over the last year, seven of those races were handicaps over trips of 6 to 10 furlongs and the results are astonishing at 1111211 including Canagat winning here on the 2nd June, the same day as Glen Shiel was the only loser in that sequence, although he has won here at Newcastle since (Class 2 under Hollie Doyle!)...

...all of which steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Canagat @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday (although a couple of firms were at 11/4), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 11th July 2020

Plenty going on again this Saturday with a monster NINE LIVE ITV races to take in.

We’ve the final day of the Newmarket July Meeting, with the Group One Darly July Stakes, plus the Group Two Superlative Stakes and the competitive Bunbury Cup Handicap.

Then at Ascot, we’ve four more LIVE races to enjoy from the Berkshire track that include the Group Two Summer Mile.

As always, we’ve got all the races covered with key trends and stats – use these to find the best past profile of winning horses.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

16/18 – Had won over 7f or further previously
14/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
10/18 – Unplaced in their last race
9/18 – Favourites unplaced
8/18 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
3/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Winning Favourites
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The Richard Hannon yard has won 3 of the last 7
Motakhayyel (5/1) won the race in 2019

2.25 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV

10/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
7/10  - Had won over at least 7f before
7/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/10 – Placed favourites
4/10 – Drawn in stalls 10 or 13 (2 each)
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/10 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

3.00 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

17/18 – Won over at least 6f previously
16/18 – Placed in their last race
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/18 – Won their latest race
12/18 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
12/18 – Won by either a March or April foal
9/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
8/18 – Favourites unplaced
6/18 – Winning Favourites
4/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/18 – Winners from stall 3
5/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 7 runnings)
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
Mystery Power (7/1) won the race in 2019

3.35 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2019     Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018     U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011      Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010      Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009      Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008      Marchand d'Or (5/2 fav)
2007      Sakhee's Secret                (9/2)
2006      Les Arcs (10/1)
2005      Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004      Frizzante (14/1)
2003      Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002      Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Had won over 6f before
15/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
14/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
13/18 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
10/18 – Placed last time out
9/18 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
6/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained the last 2 winners)
2/18 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/18 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)

 

4.10 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

17/18 – Won over 7f previously
17/18 – Raced 3 or more times that season
14/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/18 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
11/18 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
9/18 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
9/18 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/18 – Placed in their last race
4/18 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Vale Of Kent (13/2) won the race in 2019

 

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

2.05 – Betfred “Ascot Official Bookmaker* Fillies Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Won over at least 7f before
7/7 – Never ran at the course before
7/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
7/7 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/7 – Aged 3 years-old
6/7 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
5/7 – Favourites placed
3/7 – Trained by William Haggas
3/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1

2.40 – ‘Play Nifty Fifty Exclusively At Betfred’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV

7/7 – Drawn in between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
7/7 – Won between 0-3 times
7/7 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Favourites placed in the first two
5/7 – Drawn in stalls 4 or 6
5/7 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
5/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/7 – Had run at Ascot before
2/7 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/7 – Godolphin-owned
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 15/2

 

3.15 – Betfred Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV

13/13 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
8/13 – Previous Group race winner
8/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Had won a Group 1 before
10 of the last 11 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won the last 2 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

 

3.50 – Betfred Heritage Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV

Just 7 previous running
7/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had won between 2-6 times
6/7 – Had won over 5f before
6/7 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
6/7 – Carried 8-10 or more
6/7 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
4/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Came from a double-figure stall
3/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

 

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Stat of the Day, 10th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Chepstow : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8 (Towards rear, headway over 4f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

A pretty simplistic approach today as suggested by the racecard...

We've got a 4 yr old filly who ran really well in defeat LTO when beaten by a length at a higher grade a fortnight ago at Newmarket. Erissimus Maximus was a further length behind her that day and he has since gone on to win at this grade at Haydock a week ago, whilst Chitra, another 4 yr old filly, who was also behind her has since stepped up to Class 4 and was only beaten by half a length last night.

So, with the form of that race seeming to be working out, getting to go off the same mark dropping down in class is another positive for the selection, but let's now got back to the racecard for our supporting data.

As well as showing her form, age, class movement, days since last run and that unaltered mark (OR) of 75, we also see where I'm getting my numbers from. The C1 & C5 icons are repeated in the Trainer Stats report and my saved QT Angle says that Michael Attwater is one of my trainers to look out for here at Bath, but why?

Well, that 10 from 43 record here over the last five years is solid enough to hang a bet on, when allied to what I've already said the horse. but what interests me of Michael's 10 from 43 here  is that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 4/1 are...

all of which were over 5/5.5 furlongs and also include...

  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 7.73pts (+128.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3 from 4 (75%) for 6.32pts (+158.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.54pts (+227%) in June/July

I told you it was a simplistic approach today, but I think there's enough here...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (although a couple of firms were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: Fri 10th July 2020

The three-day 2020 Newmarket July Meeting continues on Friday (10th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As we move into the second day (Gentleman's Day) the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Cherry Hinton) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes take centre stage - did you know 14 of the last 18 Falmouth Stakes winners came from stalls 5 or lower?

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Enjoy!


Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two,
Friday 10th July 2020

1.50 – Price Promise at bet365 Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-88) 7f ITV4

No previous runnings
Jockey Ben Curtis is 4-from-5 (80%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joe Fanning has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Andrea Azteni has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

 

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

16/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
16/16 – Had raced at least twice before
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/16 – Foaled in Feb (6) or March (6)
14/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
12/16 – Won by a UK-based yard
11/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
8/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 4)
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Drawn in stall 1
Raffle Prize (9/2) won the race in 2019

 


3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just two previous running
The Mark Johnston yard won this race in 2019
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
King’s Advice (10/1) won this race in 2019
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 30% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is 0-from-29 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Ben Curtis is 4-from-5 (80%) riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Joe Fanning has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 30% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

 

 

3.35 - bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

11/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/13 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
10/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
9/13 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
7/13 – Irish bred
6/13 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
6/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including 5 of last 7 runnings)
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/13 – Winning favourites
Walkinthesand (9/1) won the race in 2019

 

4.10 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

18/18 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
17/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18– Won over at least 1 mile previously
14/18 – Won from stall 5 or lower
14/18 – Had 2+ runs that season
13/18 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
10/18 – Favourites placed
7/18 – Favourites  that won (1 joint)
7/18 – Previous Group One winners
6/18 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
5/18 – Won their last race
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 6)
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/18 – French-trained winners
Veracious (6/1) won the race in 2019

 

 

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Market Rasen TV Trends: Fri 10th July 2020

A big day over the jumps at Market Rasen this Friday as the ITV cameras head to the track to show two live races – the Summer Plate and the Summer Hurdle.

We’ve got both races covered with key trends and stats – use these to narrow down the fields and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Market Rasen TV Trends

Friday 10th July 2020

2.05 Betway Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV4

15/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Had won over at least 2m1f over hurdles before
14/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/18 – Had won 2 or more times already over hurdles
11/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/18 – Had run at Market Rasen before
2/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
3/18 – Winning favourites
12 of the last 13 winners carried 11-5 or less
9 of the last 14 winners carried 11-0 or less
8 of the last 14 winners retuned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
Grapevine (25/1) won the race in 2019

2.40 Betway Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5 1/2f ITV4

17/18 – Had run within the last 3 months
16/18 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
16/18 – Aged 7 or older
13/18 – Had won 2 or more chases before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Had run at Market Rasen before
11/18 – Won their previous race
7/18 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
5/18 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/18 – Ran at Stratford last time out
3/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 9)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
Casablanca Mix won the race in 2019

 

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Stat of the Day, 9th July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.40 Newbury : Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Chased winner 2f, chased leaders, went 2nd again over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, straight to the racecard...

A 3yr old gelding who comes here off the back of two good runs at Leicester already since the restart and was only beaten by an in-form filly (Rosa Gold, who has won comfortably again since) last time out nine days ago with the rest of the field over 4 lengths further back.

This contest looks marginally easier than that contest and takes place on a track where her trainer has a good record. That is documented clearly by the C1 & C5 icons above, the former of which is also shown in the report underneath the card, so lat's take a look at my "Chep Flat" angle in more detail...

The angle is essentially a group of seven trainers that I keep an eye out for here at Chepstow and Mick Channon makes the list, because since the start of 2017 campaign, his handicappers are...

from which those 48 are...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 52.91pts (+117.6%) in contests worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 38.91pts (+99.8%) at 6-25 days since last run
  • 9/26 (34.6%) for 10.4pts (+40%) at an ISP below 5/1
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 16.2pts (+60%) as 3 yr olds
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 41.56pts (+173.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/10 (60%) for 19.48pts (+194.8%) in July
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 10.12pts (+53.3%) in 3yo contests
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.17pts (+84.8%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 3/11 (29.3%) for 15.79pts (+143.5%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs

...whilst those sent off shorter than 5/1 aiming for a prize of less than £4k just 6-25 days after they last ran are...

...and they include a winner (Queen of Silca) from the last horse to qualify for that angle, which was just six days ago and was also ridden by today's jockey, George Bass claiming 7lbs...

...but until then, it's...a 1pt win bet on Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Thursday (although Bet365 were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: Thurs 9th July 2020

The three-day 2020 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (9th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

On day one the Group Two July Stakes and Prince of Wales's Stakes are the key contests - did you know that a 4 year-old has won 10 of the last 13 Prince Of Wales's Stakes?  

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Enjoy!

 

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One,

Thursday 9th July 2020

 

1.50 – Bahrain International Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m ITV4

6/7 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
6/7 – Won 2 or 3 times in the past
6/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Had won over 7f or 1m in the past
5/7 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/1

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.25 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV4

18/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
16/18 – Failed to win last time out
16/18 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
12/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
11/18 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
10/18 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/18 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/18 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 9 runnings)
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
Spanish Mission (13/2) won the race in 2019

 

 

3.00 – Tattersalls July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
16/18 – Placed in their last run
15/18 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
14/18 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/18 – Won their last race
10/18 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
9/18 – Unplaced favourites
9/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
6/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
6/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/18 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race
Royal Lytham (11/1) won the race in 2019

 

 

3.35 – Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

14/14 – Had won no more than 3 times before
13/14 – Didn’t win last time out
13/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
11/14 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
4/14 – Ridden by David Probert
0/14 – Winning favourites
Pass The Vino (25/1) won the race in 2019

 

 

4.10 - Princess Of Wales´s Tattersalls Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

16/18 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 10 of last 13)
16/18 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
15/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/18 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
12/18 – Unplaced in their previous race
10/18 – Favourites that were placed
9/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/18 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Communique (11/1) won the race in 2019

 

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York TV Trends: Thurs 9th July 2020

Normally run in May, but the York Dante Meeting was cancelled this year due to the Coronavirus outbreak.

However, the good news is three of their races have been moved to this Thursday (9th July) – the Musidora and Dante Stakes, plus the Listed Marygate Fillies’ Stakes – and will be shown LIVE on ITV Racing too.

We take a look at the three LIVE races with key trends and stats – use these to find the profiles of past winning horses.

 

York Horse Racing Trends

Thursday 9th July 2020

 

2.05 – EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
13/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winners from stall 9
6/15 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 9 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 12 winners
2019 Winner: Good Vibes (10/1)

2.40 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2 1/2f ITV4

 

17/18 – Had won a race before
15/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had a previous run that season
14/18 – Finished 4th or better last time
13/18 – Came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
11/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks
8/18 – Won by the favourite
8/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Previous distance winners over 1m2f
5/18 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 9)
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 5)
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
1/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009)
0/18 – Had run at York before
11 of the last 14 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the race
2019 Winner: Nausha (14/1)

 

3.15 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2 1/2f ITV4

16/18 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
14/18 – Finished third or better last time out
12/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Had a previous race that season
11/18 – Won their previous race
9/18 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
4/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/18 - Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/18 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
1/18 – Had run at York before
0/18 – Winners from stall 2
Just 2 winning favourites in the last 13 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
2019 Winner: Telecaster (7/1)

 

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Stat of the Day, 7th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

7.15 Windsor : Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Held up in touch, headway chasing leaders 3f out, went 2nd over 2f out, led 2f out, ridden and hung badly left over 1f out, headed and no extra close home).

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

An initial glance at the expanded racecard gives us plenty to go at...

... so we've a horse who was a runner-up 8 days ago and now drops in class. He'll be ridden by a jockey, Ben Curtis, who rides this track well (23.9% SR since the start of 2018) and has done well for today's trainer (6 wins from 15 in the past 13 months), whilst our pick is just about top rated on speed figures.

To be honest, there was probably enough there to justify a bet at 5/1 when I initially put the pick up, but what the above doesn't tell you is that when a runner-up last week, Music Therapist's write-up of the result said..."raced keenly, led on rail, ridden and strongly pressed over 1f out, headed just inside final furlong, no extra." So, I'd guess the drop back in trip is also a bonus today.

In addition to the data held within the racecard, it might be of interest to know that since the start of 2018, trainer George Scott's handicappers dropping down a grade are...

...whilst since the start of the 2017 campaign, his Class 5 Flat handicappers sent off at 7/1 or shorter are...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes, Sporting Bet & Unibet at 8.20am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2020

Saturday's pick was...

2.05 Haydock : Cruising @ 13/2 BOG non-runner (unruly at start and refused to enter stalls). Sort of summed our week up succinctly.

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Windsor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Claiming Stakes for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty straightforward stuff today as all the statistical information I'm going to give you is actually highlighted or referred to below...

Here we have a 3yr old filly who has failed to make the frame on any of her five previous starts, but wasn't disgraced on handicap debut at Leicester 11 days ago.

14 indicates that jockey Tom Marquand is in good form right now and his fortnightly record of 18 wins from 77 is documented, as is his record over the last year for trainer Mick Channon, so I won't delve into either of those sets of figures today, there's no need.

Mick Channon also has the C1 icon by his name, denoting a decent record at this venue over the last 12 months. Closer inspection tells me that he is 15 from 52 (28.9% SR) for 57.11pts (+109.8%) with runners sent off at Evens to 12/1 here since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 11/33 (33.3%) for 53.07pts (+160.8%) from those unplaced last time out
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 48.11pts (+185%) at 11-25 days since they last ran
  • 9/30 (30%) for 32.12pts (+107.1%) during June to August
  • 6/10 (60%) for 37.08pts (+370.8%) stepping up 1 class
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 20.89pts (+696.4%) with Tom Marquand in the saddle

...whilst those unplaced LTO 11 to 25 days earlier are 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 28.01pts (+466.8% ROI) during July & August, including 2 from 2 stepping up a grade and 1 from 1 for Tom Marquand...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Talking About You @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Monday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th July 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, hung left and pressed inside final furlong, headed close home, beaten by a head). After a rough few days, that was hard to take, but we dust ourselves down and go again.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cruising @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 3yo over 7f on Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

The racecard says...

So, let's see how the above could have a bearing on today's contest...

The speed rating is, as always, self-explanatory, second only to a runner half our price and now on to the three highlighted Report Angles (my settings are always 20%+ wins, A/E of 1.25+ and IV of 1.5+) which are, as you know, a 24-month window on performance.

From the top working down...Jockey 14-day form (14 on the card, too) : Paul Mulrennan is riding really well right now and had 3 winners from 8 yesterday at Hamilton.  And of his 13/56 fortnightly record, all were on grass and he is 8/31 ( 25.8% SR) over 7f or shorter.

Then the Trainer/Jockey Combo... Paul's 6 from 18 over the last 12 months for trainer David Brown actually looks like this in 2020...

including...

  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 15.84pts (+198%) at Class 5
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.35pts (+76.4%) with 3 yr olds
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (73.3%) with LTO winners...

...leading us nicely to the third angle...David Brown's LTO winners, who more long-term ie since the start of 2016 in handicaps of 9 furlongs or shorter are...

from which they have the following relevant records...

  • 13/43 (30.2%) for 35.52pts (+82.6%) from male runners
  • 12/45 (26.7%) for 39.35pts (+87.5%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.57pts (+89.6%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+136.3%) on the Flat
  • and 5/20 (25%) for 7.69pts (+38.5%) at Class 5

...and if you wanted a composite micro based around those categories above ie sex, distance and field size, you could try males over 5-7f in 6-10 runner contests for ...

...including 5/11 (45.5%) on the Flat and 5/9 (55.6%) at Class 5 and 22/3 (66.6% SR) for 14.24pts (+474.6% ROI) in Class 5 contests on the Flat...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Cruising @ 13/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 4th July 2020

It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.

Yes, normally run in early June, but due to the coronavirus outbreak has been moved to early July – with the Epsom Oaks joining the Derby to be run on the same day.

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Did you know that 16 of the last 18 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 12 of the last 18 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

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Supporting the two big Epsom races are five more contests – four of which will also be shown LIVE by the ITV horse racing team.

Here at GeeGeez.co.uk we've got all the ITV LIVE Saturday races covered with the key trends - use these stats to find the best winning profiles of past winners!

 

Epsom Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1:50 - Investec Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

18/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
14/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs
14/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/18 – Yet to win over 6f
9/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
10 of the last 12 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (7)

 

2:25 - Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV

10/10 – Had won over 6f+ before
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/10 - Rated between 95-107
8/10 – Never raced at Epsom before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 3 or higher
7/10 – Won just 1-2 times before
7/10 – Had won over 7f before
7/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Won at the track before
2/10 – Godolphin-owned
2/10 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

 

3:00 - Investec Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m2f ITV

16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or lower
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Rated between 86-98
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
7/17 – Had raced at the track before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
3/17 – Trained by Roger Varian
3/17 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni

 

3:40 - Investec Oaks (Group 1) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

18/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
15/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/18 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
10/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Irish-trained winners
4/18 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/18 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/18 – Had run at the course before
7 of the last 13 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 6 runnings.
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11.5/1
Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 16 runnings

 

4:15 - Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m½f ITV

17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
15/17 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
15/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/17 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/17 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Silvestre de Sousa (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 10 runnings

 

4:55 - Investec Derby Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

17/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/18 – Had won a Group race before
12/18 – Favourites that were placed
12/18 – Won from a single-figure stall
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/18 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
9/18 – Irish-trained winners
8/18 – Had won a Group One before
6/18 – Won by the favourite
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 7 in all)
5/18 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/18 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/18 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
2/18 – Won over 1m4f before
0/18 – Run at the course before
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

 Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 & 2018

 

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Stat of the Day, 3rd July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 5/1 BOG 7th at 9/2 (Held up in rear, pushed along over 1f out, never near leaders, beaten by 6 lengths). Tough week so far, but we crack on.

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W  handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, as is generally the case, the racecard is our first port of call...

This suggests that aside from LTO, this horse has tended to be there or thereabouts (he doesn't win enough to be honest) and will be ridden by an excellent jockey with a good record on this track. What the above doesn't say is that his last four races haven't been on Tapeta and that he has made the frame twice in three starts here at Wolverhampton.

He's only ever won one race from 27 efforts so far, making the frame in just four other starts, but has one win and one place from two runs under today's jockey, so let's deal with that JC1 icon first before I look at other supporting data. We're told that Hollie Doyle is 23 from 115 (20% SR) here over the last year and she arrives here today in scintillating form after finishes of 122111 here at this venue yesterday.

Of that 23/115 yearly record here, Hollie has 11 wins from 55 (20% SR) at Class 6 and 10 wins from 38 (26.3% SR) over trips of 5/6 furlongs, suggesting she's a good judge of pace on lower grade races on a surface not all jockeys "get".

A quick look at the Geegeez speed ratings is self-explanatory too...

As, hopefully, is the pace/draw heat map...

And now I want to wrap this up by returning to my earlier suggestion that this horse might run better back at Wolverhampton after recent efforts on turf and there's some evidence that would be the case via his breeding, as offspring of the sire Camacho have fared better returning to the Tapeta after running elsewhere. This is probably better explained pictorially, so my saved micro-system is...

And of that 14/53 record, Camacho's offspring are...

  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 30.4pts (+95%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 7/25 (28%) for 24.27pts (+97.1%) at Class 6
  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 16.6pts (+75.5%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 22.6pts (+141.3%) in 3 yr old races
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 23.46pts (+180.4%) over 6f
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 15.05pts (+125.4%) within 10 days of their last run

...whilst in Class 6 handicaps here at Wolverhampton over 5-7 furlongs, they are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 18.34pts (+131% ROI), including 3 from 7 (42.9%) in 3yo contests and 3/7 (42.9%) at 1-10 dslr...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd July 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

3.10 Southwell : Chapmanshype @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 7/1 (Mid-division, took keen hold, mistake 1st, lost place and not fluent 6th, no impression 2 out).

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, Claiming Stakes for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As usual, we'll start with the racecard that I've expanded to show my two angles from the parameters I have set in the report suite...

This shows a 10 yr old gelding in prime form having won his last three outings, the latest of which was a Class 4, 6f contest here at Wolverhampton 20 days ago. Most of you know this already, as we backed him for SotD that day too (see here, as much of that piece is still very valid).

He now drops down 2 classes to run in this claimer and I think he should have too much for a group of rivals who look to be (a) out of form, (b) in need of a run or (c) both!

The reports and icons tell us that trainer Michael Herrington has done well at this venue for a number of years (TC5), especially thanks to this horse, jockey and horse/jockey combo, so let's take a quick look at the numbers, starting with the horse...

...whose 7 from 24 here at Wolverhampton includes...

  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 25.54pts (at BFSP, of course) at an ROI of 170.2%
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 16.9pts (+187.8%) at 5/1 and shorter
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 19.03pts (+158.6%) in fields of 6-10 runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 17.88pts (+446.9%) after a win LTO
  • 3/3 (100%) for 17.86pts (+595.3%) with Tom Eaves in the saddle
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.17pts (+239%) at Class 6
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.67pts (+189%) in claimers

...whilst in fields of 6-10 runners at 5/1 or shorter competing for less than £5k, Steelriver is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 10.4pts (+173.3% ROI) here at Wolverhampton.

Next we turn our attention to the trainer and his recent record at this venue...

...and these include...

  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 50.2pts (+86.6%) at odds of evens to 11/1
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 48.2pts (+65.1%) over trips of 6 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 44.3pts (+130.3%) at Class 6
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 54.3pts (+452.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 6/23 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+69.1%) with Tom Eaves doing the steering

...whilst LTO winners sent off shorter than 7/1 in Class 6 contests are 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 18.9pts (+472.6% ROI)

And finally, back to the trainer/jockey combo, which I've just said was standing at 6 wins from 23 since the start of 2018. Those figures include of relevance today...

  • 3 winners from 10 (30%) for 8.03pts (+80.3%) at Class 6
  • and 3 from 3 (100%) for 21.96pts (+732.1%) on LTO winners

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Steelriver @ 5/1 or 9/2 BOG as was available in several places at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!