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Stat of the Day, 25th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

8.40 Worcester : Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, outpaced after 3 out, never able to challenge, weakened last)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.35 Ffos Las:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good ground worth £4614 to the winner... 

Why?...

Trainer Peter Bowen's chasers are 31/101 (30.7% SR) for 38.7pts (+38.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of evens to 13/2 here at Ffos Las since 2o12 and these include...

  • at trips of 2m to 3m : 29/89 (32.6%) for 41pts (+46%)
  • at 4 to 60 days since last run : 27/78 (34.6%) for 47.5pts (+60.9%)
  • at Class 4 : 20/65 (30.8%) for 29.6pts (+45.5%)
  • ridden by Sean Bowen : 16/44 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+58.2%)
  • in May : 7/16 (43.75%) for 11.2pts (+69.9%)
  • 6 yr olds are 6/13 (46.2%) for 6.85pts (+52.7%)

...and when Sean Bowen has ridden a Class 4 runner over 2m to 3m, 4 to 60 after the horse last ran = 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 15pts at an ROI of 83.2%.

More generally in "Summer Jumps" ie handicap chases during May to September, Peter Bowen has 33 winners from 148 (22.3% SR) for profits of 96.6pts (+65.3% ROI) since the start of May 2017, from which...

  • Sean Bowen is 26/99 (26.3%) for 54.5pts (+55%)
  • those turned out 11-45 days after their last run are 23/91 (25.3%) for 51.2pts (+56.2%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 18/64 (28.1%) for 94.4pts (+147.6%)

...whilst Sean Bowen on Class 4 runners, 11-45 days after their last run = 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 23.5pts (+94% ROI) profit...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Atomic Rumble @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.20pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.35 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 25th May 2019

More LIVE ITV4 horse racing this Saturday as the cameras take in NINE races across FOUR venues – Haydock, York and Goodwood – with the feature contest the Group Two Temple Stakes at Haydock Park, while they are also over at the Curragh to take in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Saturday 25th May 2019

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

1.55 – Betfair Best Odds On ITV Festival Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m1f192y ITV4

14/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/15 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
8/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15– Ridden by Tom Queally
2/15 – Won last time out
Spark Plug was second in 2017 and third in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.30 – Betfair Each Way Edge Handicap (3yo) Cl2 7f ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Came from stalls 2-6 (inc)
6/6 – Raced in the last 3 weeks
6/6 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
5/6 – Winners from stall 2 or 3
5/6 - returned 9/2 to 12/1
4/6 - carried between 8-0 and 8-4
3/6 – Rated between 77-81
3/6 – Won just once before
3/6 – Winners from stall 3
2/6 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/6 winning favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (last 2 runnings)
William Haggas, Richard Hannon, Mark Johnston (2), Andrew Balding and Mick Channon are the past winning yards
Trainer William Haggas has a 29% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Simcock has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is 2 from 32 with his 3 years-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hughes is just 1 from 29 with his 3 year-olds at the track
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 7/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

3.05 – William Hill Bronte Cup Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) (4yo+) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

Just 1 previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 32% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is just 3 from 52 (6%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 24 (4%) is this 4+year-olds at the track

 

3.45 – William Hill Leading On Course Bookmaker Sprint Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
4/5 – Drawn in stalls 5-9 (inc)
4/5 – Raced in the last 2 weeks
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Winning distance ½ length or less
3/5 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
3/5 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
2/5 – Aged 4 years-old
1/5 – Winning favourites
Copper Knight won the race in 2017
Trainer Michael Easterby is just 5 from 120 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Paul Midgley is just 3 from 8 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is just 1 from 40 (3%) with his older horses at the track

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)

2.15 – Amix Ready Mixed Concrete Handicap Cl2 2m45y ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Winners aged 4 or 5
5/5 – Didn’t win last time out
5/5 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
5/5 – Came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
5/5 – Unplaced favourites
5/5 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
4/5 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/5 – Winners carried 8-13 or more
4/5 – Rated between 90-98
No winning favourite yet
Trainers Wiliam Haggas, Mark Johnston, Tim Easterby, Brian Ellison and Lucy Wadham were previous winners of the race


2.50 - Amix Silver Bowl Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
15/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
13/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/16 – Placed last time out
12/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
10/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2 of last 6)
David Probert has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners.
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2


3.25 – Armstrong Aggregates Sandy Lane Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo) 6f ITV4

15/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – From stall 5 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Came from stall 8 or 9
3/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
2/15 – Raced at York last time
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2009 and 2015


4.00 – Armstrong Aggregates Temple Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

16/17 – Trained in the UK
15/17 – Had won over 5f before
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
12/17 – Raced within the last 2 months
11/17 – Placed third or better last time out
10/17 – Favourites that were placed
10/17 – Had won a Group race before
9/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won their latest race
2/17 – Owned by Qatar Racing (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Clive Cox (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/17 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 3 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 6/1
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower

Curragh Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

3.35 Tattersalls Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) (3yo) 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had run within the last 3 weeks
14/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
14/17 – Had won over either 7f or 1m before
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top two
13/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had won between 1-4 times before
12/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Had run at the Curragh before
11/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/17 – Had won a Group 1 race before
8/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Trained by a UK-based stable
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won the 2,000 Guineas (Newmarket) that season
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 5/1
Rock of Gibraltar (2002), Cockney Rebel (2007), Henrythenavigator (2008), Gleneagles (2015) & Churchill (2017) all did the English/Irish 2,000 Guineas double

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Stat of the Day, 24th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

8.40 Sandown : Greenside @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (withdrawn due to change in going)

Friday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Worcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Good ground worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, this Emma Lavelle-trained 6 yr old mare has already won twice and placed once from just five starts and comes here off the back of winning a Class 4 hurdle at Chepstow last time out, 32 days ago.

In addition to her form displayed so far, she also cropped on several of my stored angles, here are just a handful of them...

1. In UK handicap hurdles since 2013, horses who won a Novice hurdle LTO 11-90 days earlier are 220/1200 (18.3% SR) for 109.2pts (+9.1% ROI), including...

  • Class 3/4 : 151/730 (20.7%) for 100.1pts (+13.7%)
  • females : 42/223 (18.8%) for 47.5pts (+21.3%)
  • and Class 4 females are 18/97 (18.6%) for 13.54pts (+14%)

2. Emma Lavelle + Class 4/5 hurdlers + 2016-19 = 38/240 (15.8% SR) for 37.9pts (+15.8% ROI), from which...

  • at 2m6f and shorter : 34/201 (16.9%) for 55.1pts (+27.4%)
  • in handicaps : 16/89 (18%) for 17.4pts (+19.5%)
  • in hcps @ 2m6f and shorter : 14/60 (23.3%) for 32.6pts (+54.3%)

3. Emma's LTO winners sent off at 2/1 to 17/2 in 2016-19, some 21-60 days after that win are 20/62 (32.3% SR) for 51.8pts (+84.9% ROI), amongst which...

  • hurdlers : 16/33 (48.5%) for 64.2pts (+194.5%)
  • at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 16/34 (47.1%) for 56.7pts (+166.7%)
  • hurdlers at 2m4.5f to 3m1f : 14/21 (66.7%) for 62.6pts (+297.9%)
  • 6 yr olds : 10/25 (40%) for 39.3pts (+157.2%)
  • ridden by Leighton Aspell : 3/5 (60%) for 9.8pts (+196%)

4. Here at Worcester, Emma's runners are 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 22.5pts (+60.8% ROI) since 2016 and these include...

  • at 5/1 and shorter : 8/17 (47.1%) for 19.6pts (+115%)
  • handicappers are 7/26 (26.9%) for 28.1pts (+108.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 25.5pts (+141.9%)
  • and C4 hcps @ 5/1 and shorter = 3/4 (75%) for 11.25pts (+281.1%)

5. And finally for today, Emma's handicap hurdle debutants sent off at 2/1 to 11/1 since 2016 are 8/25 (32% SR) for 25pts (+100% ROI), from which...

  • at 2m3f to 2m5.5f : 7/17 (41.2%) for 29.86pts (+175.7%)
  • 6 yr olds : 6/20 930%) for 15.24pts (+76.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 4/10 (40%) for 20.65pts (+206.5%)
  • females : 3/3 (100%) for 21.72pts (+724%)
  • at Worcester : 1/2 (50%) for 3.94pts (+197%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Forget Me Knot @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.45 Yarmouth : Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Greenside @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding is a former Class 2 winner and comes here off the back of a pretty comfortable 2 lengths win at Windsor 17 days ago under today's jockey Harry Bentley in a similar Class 3, 1m handicap on Good ground to today's contest.

With regards to today's race, his career stats include...

  • 5 wins, 2 places from 14 over a mile (4w, 2pl from 10 on turf)
  • 3 from 8 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 4 from 7 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in May/June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Sandown
  • and 1 from 2 on Good ground.

As for the race itself, the race trends for the last 22 runnings (since 1997) of the Whitsun Cup include the following of relevance today...

  • all 22 winners had raced 0-3 times that season prior to the race
  • 17 had a top 4 finish LTO
  • 16 had raced in the previous 30 days
  • 11 were sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 10 were rated (OR) 90-94
  • 10 were favourites
  • and 8 came out of stalls 3 or 4

And finally for today, a quick look at how LTO winners trained by Henry Candy fared next time out tells me that those sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 in Flat handicaps are 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 14.7pts (+36.7% ROI) since 2015 of these include of note today...

  • in races worth £3k to £10k : 10/32 (31.25%) for 12.44pts (+38.9%)
  • in May/June : 5/10 (50%) for 13.59pts (+135.9%)
  • those who raced/won 15-20 days earlier : 5/10 (50%) for 12.44pts (+124.4%)
  • here at Sandown : 2/5 (40%) for 2.88pts (+57.6%)
  • and those ridden by Harry Bentley are 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.32pts (+277.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Greenside @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Sky, Unibet, Hills & BlackType (last two go BOG on raceday) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

3.05 Brighton : Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, no impression final furlong)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Seven of today's ten runners are returning from breaks of six months or more and with quick ground expected, some of them might well get found out for fitness here. I've taken a price that looked (IMO at least) to represent excellent value in taking on a short-priced (as low as 13/8 when I made my selection) favourite who steps up in both trip and class for a handicap debut off a mark (81) that might be on the high side, especially after 10 months away from the track.

Our boy has been around the block a few times and it's admittedly been a while since he last won and he's clearly not the force of old, but we should remember that was a winner at Class 2 off a mark of 91 last year and now runs off a career low mark. He is 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 24.1pts (+114.8% ROI) over 7f on the Flat including 3 from 5 (60%) for 15.94pts (+318.8%) in cheekpieces and hails from a yard with a decent record at this venue...

...as Stuart Williams-trained handicappers sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 are 15 from 57 (26.3% SR) for 24.6pts (+43.1% ROI) over the past five seasons here at Yarmouth, from which...

  • those with a run in the previous 25 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 22.2pts (+52.8%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 are 10/31 (32.3%) for 31.3pts (+100.9%)
  • those rated (OR) 70-85 with a run in the previous 25 days are 8/22 (36.4%) for 26.2pts (+119%)
  • at Class 4 : 6/14 (42.9%) for 25.3pts (+180.6%) : all rated 70-85
  • and at Class 4 with a run in the previous 25 days : 5/10 (50%) for 22.33pts (+223.3%) : all rated 70-85

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.20pm on Tuesday and Bet365 were a half point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2019

Monday's pick was...

3.15 Carlisle : Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Soon led, driven and headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace, no impression in 4th inside final furlong)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Brighton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Good to Firm ground worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old is making just a fifth start today, with little/no data to work from, so I'll focus on jockey and trainer, who both do very well at this quirky venue.

We'll start with our jockey, Adam Kirby, whose record here over the last four (and a bit, ie since April 2015) seasons stands at 23 winners from 79 (29.1% SR) generating 45.4pts of level stakes profit at an excellent ROI of some 57.5% and these include of relevance today...

  • at Class 6 : 10/30 (33.3%) for 28.5pts (+95.1%)
  • over 7f : 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.9pts (+85.7%)
  • and in May : 5/14 (35.7%) for 12.4pts (+85.7%)...

...whilst trainer Clive Cox hasn't been as active as Adam here in recent years but actually has better figures than the jockey with 10 winners from 29 (34.5% SR) producing 17.6pts at an ROI of 60.5% backed blindly since 2014, from which...

  • those sent off at 8/1 or shorter are 10/23 (43.5%) for 23.6pts (+102.6%)
  • those ridden by Adam Kirby are 8/17 (47.1%) for 17.06pts (+100.3%)
  • on ground deemed quicker than Good : 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.11pts (+94.1%)
  • runners with less than 3 weeks rest are 5/11 (45.5%) for 18.04pts (+164%)
  • over this 7f course and distance : 3/8 (37.5%) for 8.83pts (+110.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.4pts (+42.5%)
  • and in May : 3/7 (42.9%) for 9.06pts (+129.5%)

...and from the above... Cox + Kirby + Brighton + Good to Firm = 5/9 (55.6% SR) for 7.62pts (+84.7% ROI), including 3 from 6 with runners who raced less than 25 days earlier, 2 from 4 at Class 6, 1 from 2 over the 7f C&D and 1 from 1 in May...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dark Poet @ 9/2 BOG which available from BetVictor & Hills (latter non-BOG until midnight) at 6.o5pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Brighton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th May 2019

Saturday's pick was...

5.40 Thirsk : Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Dwelt, held up, headway over 2f out, went 2nd 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, lost 2nd and stayed on same pace, been by half a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth £7439 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, in all honesty, this 5 yr old gelding hasn't actually covered himself in glory during seven consecutive defeats in a Class 4 handicap at Pontefract in early July of last year, but there are mitigating circumstances.

He won that day off a mark of 86, but has since been running at Classes 2 & 3 off marks of 92 to 94, before finally getting some relief from the handicapper last time out when eased down to 88. He now drops back into Class 4 company for the first time since that last win and is now weighted a pound below that last winning mark, so now should be the time to at least give him a second glance.

Career stats aren't the best with just 3 wins from 24 on the Flat so far, but those 3 wins are relevant to today's conditions, as...

  • All 3 were achieved over 1m to 1m1f, all with Danny Tudhope in the saddle, all off marks from 78-86 and all withing a 6 week period of the year from mid-April to early July.
  • 2 were at Class 4, 2 were at odds of 3/1 or shorter and 2 were in fields of 5-8 runners

In fact...in fields of 5-8 runners off a mark of 78-86 with Danny in the saddle during that 6-week time frame, Lamloom is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 8.42pts (+93.6% ROI), including...

  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.43pts (+188.5%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.5pts (+10%) shorter than 4/1
  • and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

He is trained by David O'Meara whose runners are 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 42.83pts (+70.2% ROI) over the last fortnight, including 2 winners and a place from 4 at Ripon yesterday.

Jockey Danny Tudhope is also in good touch, winning 25 of 105 (23.8% SR) for 50.39pts (+48% ROI) over the last 30 days...

...whilst together the trainer/jockey partnership is 15/54 (27.8%) for 59.78pts (+110.7%) in that same 30 day period.

Their success together isn't really too surprising and many people (myself included) have written plenty about this partnership, but as you all know by now, I'm not one for following an angle blindly, so with this duo, my first instinct is to look for the on the Flat at trips of 5f to 1m2f and this gives us 287 winners from 1697 runners (16.9% SR) for 316pts (+18.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

So that I'm not accused of using old data to prop up my pick, I'll just focus on those qualifying from that criteria since the start of the 2017 campaign and that gives us 85 winners from 519 (16.4% SR) and 203.9pts of profit at a very healthy ROI of 39.4%, not counting yesterday's 5/1 winner from just two runners.

This angle actually gives us two possibles for today (as does some of the data below), but I prefer Lamloom's chances to those of Star Shield who is currently 3/1 BOG in the 5.15 race at this venue, and further analysis of those 519 runners shows that...

  • those rated (OR) 75-94 are 36/213 (16.9%) for 39.3pts (+18.5%)
  • those dropped 1-5lbs by the assessor are 28/182 (15.4%) for 39.6pts (+21.8%)
  • those last seen 4-15 days earlier are 35/177 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+42.2%)
  • over trips of 7.5f to 8.5f : 27/152 (17.8%) for 46.3pts (+30.5%)
  • and in May : 25/134 (18.7%) for 142.8pts (+106.5%)

...whilst based upon the above...during March to May over 6f to 10f off marks of 75-94, but 1-5lbs lower than LTO = 10 from 39 (25.6% SR) for 104pts (+266.7% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lamloom @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.o5pm on Sunday, although you could get an extra quarter point from Betfair/Paddy Power, but they don't go BOG until 8.00am on raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th May 2019

Friday's pick was...

3.45 Newmarket : Gumball  @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 6/5 (Led, pushed along and headed 3f out, tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Thirsk :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3398 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding was a winner last time out just 7 days when a pretty comfortable victor over course and distance in this grade a week ago under today's jockey Rowan Scott, who once again claims 3lbs.

And now, the numbers...

1. This runner has 2 wins and a place from 8 runs to date and they include of relevance today...

  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 at Class 6
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 3 at 6f
  • 1 win, 1 place here at Thirsk
  • 1 from 1 under Scott Rowan

2. Trainer Nigel Tinkler's LTO winners are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 26.6pts (+33.3% ROI) in Flat handicaps since 2009, when turned back out after less than three week's rest and these include...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 22.84pts (+78.8%) over the last two seasons
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 42pts (+174.9%) over 6f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 17.9pts (+179%) in May
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 8.08pts (+202%)

3. Whilst Nigel's record here at Thirsk in Flat handicaps since the start of 2017 season stands at 6 from 18 (33.3% SR) for 20.57pts (+114.3% ROI) with horses sent off shorter than 12/1, from which...

  • over this 6f C&D : 5/15 (33.3%) for 19.8pts (+132%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.32pts (+112%)
  • at Class 6 : 4/10 (40%) for 19.62pts (+196.2%)
  • at 5/1 and shorter : 5/7 (71.4%) for 17.31pts (+247.3%)
  • on Good to Firm : 2/4 (50%) for 15.45pts (+386.3%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/2 (100%) for 6.94pts (+347%)

4. And finally, since 2010 in Class 6 Flat handicaps, horses who won at the same class, track and trip LTO 4-10 days earlier are 51 from 152 (33.6%) for 35.2pts (+23.2% ROI), including...

  • at 7/1 and shorter : 51/135 (37.8%) for 52.2pts (+38.7%)
  • at trips shorter than a mile : 28/80 (35%) for 28.7pts (+35.9%)
  • and at 7/1 and shorter over trips shorter than a mile : 28/67 (41.8%) for 41.7pts (+62.2%), including 8 wins from 16 (50% SR) for 15.72pts (+98.25% ROI) over the last two seasons...

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ginger Jam @ 11/4 BOG which was available BetVictor, Betfair & Betway at 6.35pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Thirsk

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 18th May 2019

After a week at York the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from Newmarket – As always, here at Geegeez we've got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats anglAfter a week at York the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from Newmarket – As always Andy Newton’s got all the big race trends and tips……

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 - Shalaa Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

13/14 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
12/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
12/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Drawn in stall 3
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

2.25 - Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/16 – Drawn 4 or lower
11/16 – Had run at Newbury before
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
8/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
8/16 – Aged 4 years-old
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Won last time out
3 of the last 11 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Crystal Ocean (2/5 fav) won the race last year

3.00 - Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Rated 90 or lower
13/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/16 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

3.40 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

16/16 – Won over a mile before
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won a Group One race before
13/16 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old
11/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – Having their first run of the season
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
5/16 – Godolphin owned
4/16 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/16 – Won by a mare
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
2/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 7 times in all)
1/16 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 3/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

12/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/12 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/12 – Had won over 1m or further before
9/12 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Draw 1,2 or 3
8/12 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/12 – US-bred winners
3/12 – Trained John Gosden
3/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/12 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/12 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Won only once before
12/16 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
9/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

3.15 - Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
10/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
10/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Rated between 91-96
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by a mare/filly
3/16 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-8
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 17th May 2019

Thursday's pick was...

2.10 Salisbury : Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to win by 1.75 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gumball @ 9/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Good ground worth £18675 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was 3 from 9 over hurdles before switching to "level ground" in late February this year and is now 3 from 3 on the Flat/AW after 2 wins over 1m4f at Class 5, before landing a similar Class 3, 1m6f contest to today's when last seen 19 days ago at Salisbury, clear by 2 lengths and looking comfortable.

With regards to today's challenge, he is...

  • 6 from 9 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 6 from 6 at Class 3 or below
  • 3 from 4 going right handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in 2m hurdle contests, so stamina shouldn't be an issue
  • 2 from 3 on Good ground
  • and 2 from 2 under today's jockey Oisin Murphy

He is trained by Philip Hobbs, best known for his NH runners, of course, but has dabbled successfully in the past 10 years with hurdlers running on the Flat/AW and over the last two years, his Flat/AW runners are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 8.36pts (+92.4% ROI) at trips of 1m4f to 1m6f, all of them male, including...

  • 5 from 7 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 4 from 7 in the February to June period
  • and 4 from 6 with 5 yr olds

And more generally, since 2014, in Flat handicaps over 2m or shorter, horses racing off the back of three consecutive wins are 104/502 (20.7% SR) for 96.7pts (+19.3% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • last 3 runs/wins all "on the level" : 99/482 (20.5%) for 85.8pts (+17.8%)
  • males are 78/378 (20.6%) for 101.3pts (+26.8%)
  • from March to August : 83/375 (22.1%) for 124.3pts (+33.2%)
  • 16-25 dslr : 26/125 (20.8%) for 55.4pts (+44.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 17/75 (22.7%) for 79.7pts (+106.3%)
  • over 1m6f to 2m : 15/55 (27.3%) for 27.9pts (+50.7%)
  • and this year alone : 7/11 (63.6%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gumball @ 9/4 BOG which was quite widely available at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

York TV Trends: Fri 17th May 2019

We’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the third day (Fri) of the York Dante Meeting, with the Group Two Yorkshire Cup the feature contest today.

 

YORK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – Langleys Solicitors EBF Stallions Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

13/14 – Had won over 5f before
13/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
12/14 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Won last time out
11/14 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Winners from stall 9
6/14 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 8 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 11 winners

2.25 - Oaks Farm Stables Fillies´ Stakes (Registered As The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed) Cl1 1m ITV

13/13 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
13/13 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
13/13 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
11/13 – Had won over at least 7f before
9/13 – Placed 5th or better last time out
9/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Horses from stall 1 placed
7/13 – Raced at either Newmarket (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ridden by Ryan Moore

3.00 – Matchbook Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 1m6f ITV

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15/15 – Didn’t win last time out
15/15 – Came from stall 7 or lower
14/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
14/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged 5 or older
12/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/15 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/15 – Had run at York before
7/15 – Horses from stall 7 placed in the top 3
7/15 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/15 – Came from stall 4 or 7
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Stradivarius won the race 12 months ago

3.35 – Matchbook 'Best Value' Exchange Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

17/17 – Aged 7 or younger
16/17 – Had run over 1m2f before
14/17 – Didn’t win their last race
13/17 – Came from stall 5 or higher
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f before
12/17 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
12/17 – Had a previous run that season
10/17 – Won by a 4 year-old (including 7 of the last 11 years)
9/17 – Finished third or better last time out
5/17 – Had run at York before
5/17 – Won by the favourite
3/17 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009)
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/17 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
11 of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 16th May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

7.25 Bath : Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG 7th at 7/2 (Tracked leader, ridden 2f out, weakened final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo Fillies over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £12450 to the winner...

Why?...

Just three runs so far for this one, but she did win LTO on her seasonal re-appearance at Lingfield 13 days ago, when stepped up from 7f to 1m2f for the first time. She was coming off the back of an 8-month break that day, so providing there are no ill effects from that race, I'd expect her to come on for having had the run.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it relatively simple today with just one point of attack, namely...

...trainer Eve Johnson Houghton's Class 2-4 handicappers who won LTO 3-30 days earlier and now run at 6-11 furlongs at odds shorter than 12/1 are 19/80 (23.75% SR) for 50.4pts (+63% ROI) since 2010, and with today's contest in mind, this includes...

  • over the last six seasons : 15/65 (23.1%) for 28.41pts (+43.7%)
  • with "Good" in the official going : 12/53 (22.6%) for 26.83pts (+50.6%)
  • up in class : 12/49 (24.5%) for 42.33pts (+86.4%)
  • within 75 miles of the yard : 14/41 (34.2%) for 48.5pts (+118.3%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/22 (2.7%) for 18.35pts (+83.4%)
  • over this 1m2f trip : 6/20 (30%) for 12.38pts (+61.9%)
  • ridden by Charlie Bishop : 5/16 (31.25%) for 4.76pts (+29.75%)

...whilst from the above... last 6 seasons + "Good" in official going + up in class + less than 60 miles from "home" = 6/12 (50% SR) for 30.32pts (+252.7% ROI) and although that's a small sample size, it's not easy to ignore and does also interestingly contain...

  • 6-20 days since last run/win : 5/9 (55.6%) for 30.73pts (+341.4%)
  • over 1m2f : 4/7 (57.1%) for 18.37pts (+262.4%)
  • over 1m2f at 6-20dslr : 3/5 (60%) for 17.78pts (+355.6%)
  • Charlie Bishop : 3/5 960%) for 8.74pts (+174.8%)
  • at 6-20dslr with Charlie Bishop : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.15pts (+271.6%)
  • and with Charlie Bishop at 1m2f : 2/3 (66.6%) for 2.14pts (+71.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Bella Vita @ 9/2 BOG which was quite widely available at 5.30pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were offering 5/1 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

York TV Trends: Thurs 16th May 2019

We’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the second day (Thurs) of the York Dante Meeting, with Dante Stakes, a respected Epsom Derby Trial, the feature contest today - 4 of the last 17 Dante winners went onto win the Epsom Derby.

 

 

YORK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)


2.20 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

11/11 – Had raced at York before
10/11 – Came from a single-figure draw
10/11 – Failed to win last time out
10/11 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/11 – Returned a double-figure price
9/11 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Winning distance 3/4 length or shorter
9/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
8/11 – Aged 6 or older
6/11 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1
6/11 – Favourites placed
5/11 – Rated between 87-92
5/11 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
2/11 – Trained by Michael Easterby
0/11 – Winning favourites
El Astronaute (15/2) won the race in 2018
Duke Of Firenze won the race in 2016 and 2017

2.25 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

15/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Won over 1m2f before
12/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Having first run of the season
9/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/15 – Wining favourites (including 6 of last 11)
8/15 – Had raced at York before
5/15 – Winners from stall 4
4/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Had won at York before
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/15 – Irish trained winners
1/15 – French trained winners
1/15 – Winners from stall 1

3.00 – Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

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15/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby (4 won)
13/17 – Finished third or better last time out
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Had a previous race that season
10/17 – Won their previous race
9/17 – Went onto be placed in the Epsom Derby
4/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (won it 4 times in all)
3/17 - Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
3/17 – Won by jockey Ryan Moore
3/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of last 4 runnings)
2/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
1/17 – Had run at York before
0/17 – Winners from stall 2
Just 2 winning favourite in the last 12 runnings
Golden Horn (2015) was the last Dante winner to go onto win the Epsom Derby
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 15/2

 

3.35 - Matchbook Betting Podcast Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV

14/14 – Rated between 96-105
13/14 – Carried 8-7 or more in weight
13/14 – Had won over a mile before
12/14 – Favourites placed in the top 4
12/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
10/14 – Came from a single-figure draw
10/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/14 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/14 – Placed last time out
7/14 – Aged 4 years-old
3/14 – Winning favourite (1 joint, 1 co)
1/14 – Won last time out

 

 

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York TV Trends: Weds 15th May 2019

We’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the opening day (Weds) of the York Dante Meeting – with the Duke Of York Clipper Stakes and the Musidora Stakes the two main events today.

 

 

YORK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)


1.50 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Rated between 80 and 93
11/15 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/15 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
8/15 – Had run at York before
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
6/15 – Unplaced last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

2.25 - Infinity Tyres Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

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16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
13/17 – Had run at York before (5 won at the track before)
13/17 – Had won over this trip before
11/17 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
9/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/17 – Won by a 4 year-old
7/17 – Returned either 6/1 or 7/1 in the betting
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Won their previous race
1/17 – Winning outright favourite
9 of the last 10 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
Trainer Michael Easterby won the race in 2011 & 2014
Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.00 - Duke of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

16/17 – Came from stall 9 or lower
15/17 – Previous Listed or Group Three winners
15/17 – Had won over 6f before
12/17 – Had run at York before
12/17 – Came from stall 7 or lower
12/17 – Had a previous race that season
12/17 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
10/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/17 – Unplaced last time out
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/17 – Won by the favourite
4/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Had won a Group One race previously in their career
2/17 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 14/1

3.35 - Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

16/17 – Had won a race before
15/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
13/17 – Had a previous run that season
13/17 – Finished 4th or better last time
11/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks
8/17 – Won by the favourite
8/17 – Won their previous race
5/17 – Previous distance winners over 1m2f
5/17 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 8)
4/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 4)
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by William Buick
1/17 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009)
0/17 – Had run at York before
11 of the last 13 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/2
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won the race

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 15th May 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

7.10 Southwell : The Drone @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead after 8th, driven to lead after 3 out, ridden after next, idled flat, just held on by a short head)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has been getting better with experience during his short (just 6 runs for 3 different trainers so far!) racing career and has finished third (beaten by 4L), 2nd (beaten by a neck) and first in his last three outings, the last two of which were his only two runs for today's trainer and also today's jockey.

The LTO win came here at Bath 9 days ago at the same class, course, distance and going as today and with the same jockey (Shane Kelly) on board, the only difference now is a 5lb rise in weight for that win, but that might not be enough to anchor him just yet and like yesterday, this horse cropped up on a few interconnecting angles I've got saved, so let's look at the data, shall we?

1. Trainer John O'Shea's handicappers running within a fortnight of a top 3 finish LTO are 27 from 106 (25.5% SR) for 29.8pts (+28.1% ROI) profit if backed blindly since the start of 2015, from which the following are particularly relevant today...

  • at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 23/92 (25%) for 31.3pts (+34%)
  • on the Flat : 16/62 (25.8%) for 23.7pts (+38.3%)
  • on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 16/60 (26.7%) for 25.7pts (+42.9%)
  • LTO winners : 19/48 (39.6%) for 45.8pts (+95.4%)
  • LTO winners now running at 1m5f and shorter : 15/38 (39.5%) for 43.3pts (+114%)
  • LTO winners now running on the Flat : 10/24 (41.7%) for 34.6pts (+144.2%)
  • and LTO winners now running on the Flat at trips of 1m5f and shorter : 10/23 (43.5%) for 35.6pts (+154.8%)

2. Plus, since 2013, John's horses who were turned out after less than 3 weeks rest following a class & distance win LTO are 11 from 20 (55% SR) for 35.3pts (+176.4% ROI) with those running in the May-November period winning 9 of 15 (60%) for 30.9pts (+205.7%)

3. And finally for today, more generally since 2014 in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps, horses priced at 5/1 and shorter (where we'll surely be today) who won at the same class, course and distance LTO 6-15 days earlier went on to win again on 44 of 114 (38.6% SR) occasions generating 43.1pts profit at an ROI of 37.8%, from which...

  • those raised 3-10lbs for the win are 36/82 (43.9%) for 43.4pts (+52.9%)
  • and those raised 3-10lbs for the win to new mark of 65-80 are 32/62 (51.6%) for 46.5pts (+75%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Simbirsk @ 9/4 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday with plenty of 5/2 non-BOG available, whilst Bet365 were as big as 11/4 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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