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Stat of the Day, 21st November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

1.00 Fakenham : Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led, not fluent 5th, ridden and headed bend approaching last, soon weakened) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

More about this one later...

...but for now, it's... a 1pt win bet on Solstice Star @ 10/3 BOG, a price offered by Hills & Sky at 5.45pm on Tuesday evening, whilst there was an extra sixth of a point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

6.30 Kempton : Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG 6th at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 10f out, close up, pushed along over 2f out, soon weakened) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.00 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Selling Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m5f on Good To Firm ground worth £4159 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding who has been in decent form over fences this season and now takes a drop in class, as he reverts to the smaller obstacles at a venue his yard has fared well at in the past.

In fact, trainer Dan Skelton's runners sent off at odds of 6/1 and shorter are 17 from 53 (32.1% SR) for 12.36pts (+23.3% ROI) here at Fakenham and with today's contest in mind, those 53 runners are...

  • 16/46 (34.8%) for 15.84pts (+34.4%) in the October -April period
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 11.47pts (+33.7%) over trips of 2m to 2m5f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 4.37pts (+14.6%) over hurdles
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 11.02pts (+52.5%) since the start of 2017
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 2.31pts (+15.4%) from those who last raced 11-20 days earlier
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6% plus a runner-up) for 3.91pts (+130.4%) from hurdlers whose previous race was over fences.

...and from the above... Dan Skelton + Fakenham + 6/1 and shorter + 2016-18 + October-April + hurdles + 2m to 2m5f = 6/16 (37.5% SR) for 6.16pts (+38.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Too Much Too Soon @ 11/4 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.35pm on Monday evening, whilst there was an extra quarter point available with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Raced wide soon tracked leader, pushed along and unable to quicken 2f out, ridden and edged right entering final furlong, no extra and edged left towards finish) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner Class 4 A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 2m on Polytrack worth £6469 to the winner...,

Why?

I'm going to keep this very simple today with a 4yr old gelding down in both class and weight from his last run 24 days ago.

As well as both of those factors being positives in my eyes, I was also drawn to him, because his trainer, Ian Williams is in my notebook (and Geegeez Query Tool!) for one to watch out for with A/W stayers.

More specifically, in Ian's case : A/W handicappers over trips of 1m6f and beyond. Such beasts are 30 from 149 (20.1% SR) for 96.2pts (+64.6% ROI) since 2010 and of relevance today, they include...

  • 24/102 (23.5%) for 114.1pts (+111.8%) in the October-March half of the year (ie the winter season)
  • 20/98 (20.4%) for 98.3pts (+100.3%) on Polytrack
  • 24/93 (25.8%) for 120.2pts (+129.2%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 24/85 (28.2%) for 119pts (+140%) aged 3 to 5
  • 24/74 (32.4%) for 25.9pts (+35%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  • and 12/56 (21.4%) for 16.41pts (+29.3%) since the start of 2016

And that's pretty much it, other than to say that if you combined the above...3-5 yr olds priced at 5/1 and shorter on Polytrack during October to March within 25 days of their last run = 7 from 17 (41.2% SR) for 13.23pts (+77.8% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darksideoftarnside @ 3/1 BOG , a price pretty widely available at 4.40pm on Sunday evening, whilst Bet365 were offering slightly more. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Cheltenham TV Trends: Sunday 18th Nov 2018

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the final day of their three-day November Meeting.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered as The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

15/16 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/16 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Raced (hurdles or fences) at Cheltenham previously
13/16 – Favourites placed
13/16 – Raced just once previously over fences
10/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
10/16 – Won their latest race
10/16 – Won previously over fences
9/16 – Ran in the Arkle Chase at the Festival later that season (1 won, Azertyuiop, 2002)
9/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (inc last 6 of last 10 years)
9/16 – Favourites that won
7/16 – Won by a French bred
4/16 – Won by Irish bred
4/16 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won by a German bred
3/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Fell in the Arkle Chase later that season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/8

2.25 – Shloer Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

9 previous runnings
8/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Officially rated 150+
7/9 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/9 – Won on seasonal reappearance
7/9 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/9 – Aged 7 or older
7/9 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
6/9 – Failed to win last time out
6/9 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
5/9 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/9 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
4/9 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/9 – Favourites that won
3/9 – German bred
3/9 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Fox Norton won the 2016 and 2017 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/16 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
14/16 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Officially rated 140 or higher
11/16 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
11/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/16 –  Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/16 – Carried 11-4 or more
7/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/16 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Winning favourites
1/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
6 of the last 9 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/14 – Won last time out
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top three
10/14 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
8/14 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/14 – Had won a NH Flat race before
8/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Aged 4 years-old
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Won by the Nicholls stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 17th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on same pace towards finish) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG  

...in a 12-runner Listed Race for 3yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £20983 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding initially caught my eye, as it featured on the Shortlist report, so I did a little bit of digging and found that he is...

  • 8 from 14 over the 6f trip
  • 5 from 11 in blinkers
  • 5 from 9 at odds of 13/8 to 4/1
  • 3 from 5 in October/November
  • 2 from 4 in Listed company
  • 2 from 4 ridden by James Doyle
  • and 1 from 2 over course and distance after he won this very race last year.

He won the race last year, when carrying 9-6 under James Doyle and James rides again, but the horse carries 3lbs less.

Trainer Hugo Palmer's record in Listed races since the start of 2013 stands at 15 wins from 119 (12.6% SR) for 31.3pts (+26.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 to 5 yr olds at 14/94 (14.9%) for 54.3pts (+57.8%)
  • in fields of 8-13 runners : 12/77 (15.6%) for 63pts (+81.8%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/19 (21.1%) for 10.7pts (+56.3%)

Gifted Master now returns to action after a 12-week break, but I'm not over concerned about his lack of recent action, because Hugo Palmer's horses running after a break to 2 to 5 months are 27/97 (27.8% SR) for 97.9pts (+101% ROI) since the start of 2012, from which the following are relevant today...

  • Sub-10/1 shots are 26/71 (36.6%) for 80.2pts (+113%)
  • males are 22/60 (36.7%) for 105.7pts (+176.1%)
  • those rated (OR) 80 and above are 15/48 (31.3%) for 51.4pts (+107.1%)
  • in non-handicaps : 12/43 (27.9%) for 47.3pts (+109.9%)
  • on the A/W : 14/36 (38.9%) for 93pts (+258.4%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 10/21 (47.6%) for 28.3pts (+134.9%)
  • and here at Lingfield : 4/11 (36.4%) for 54.5pts (+495.4%)

...whilst sub 10/1 males rated 80 and above are 14 from 28 (50% SR) for 66.2pts (+236.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gifted Master @ 5/2 BOG , a price widely available at 6.20pm on Friday evening, although Hills were offering another quarter point for those able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 17th Nov 2018

A huge day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the BetVictor Gold Cup the feature racethe ITV cameras are at Prestbury Park to take in four of the races, plus are also covering two at Lingfield.

As always we've got all the key trends & stats to help you whittle down the runners.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

12.40 - JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y RUK

13/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/13 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
10/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
10/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/13 – German bred
3/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/13 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006)
Owner JP McManus has won the last two runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

1.15 - mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RUK

13/13 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
11/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
10/13 – Raced no more than twice over fences
10/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
9/13 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old
8/13 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (2) or Wetherby (2) last time out
7/13 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase (no winners)
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 4/1

1.50 - BetVictor Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y ITV

15/16 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
14/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
11/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
10/16  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Ran within the last month
8/16 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16  – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/16 – French bred
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/16 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 5 years)
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV

16/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
15/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
15/16 – Won by a UK-based trainer
12/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/16 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
10/16 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 6 carried 10-13 or more)
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/16 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
8/16 – Aged 7 years-old
8/16 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
7/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/16 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 9 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 34 runners
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 10.5/1

3.00 – Regulatory Finance Solutions Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
13/16 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
12/16 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
11/16 – Officially rated 126 to 137
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16  – Ran at either Cheltenham (5), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Ran within the last month
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/16 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
4 of the last 10 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017

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3.30 - BetVictor Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

12/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/13 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/13 – Returned a double-figure price
7/13 – Favourites unplaced
6/13 – Carried 10-13 or less
6/13 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/13 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/13 – Irish bred winners
5/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – French bred winners
2/13 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1
2 of the last 6 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

10/12 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Rated between 103 and 112
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top two
8/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/12 – Placed last time out
9/12 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/12 – Won between 1-4 times before
8/12 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

3.15 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

11/11 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
10/11 – Aged 4 or older
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Won 5 or more times before
8/11 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
7/11 – Unplaced favourites
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race last year
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 16th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

12.40 Southwell : Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, ridden and every chance from over 1f out, kept on and held towards finish, beaten by a neck) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 2 Fillies Conditions Stakes for 3yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £12291 to the winner... 

Why?

I'm going to keep this relatively (by my standards anyway) short and hopefully very sweet today with a 5 yr old mare who has knocked on the door of late finishing third in each of her last three starts. In her defence, I should add that they were all at Listed Class and today she takes both a drop in class and trip back to her preferred 7f.

All 3 career wins to date are over 7 furlongs within 12-24 days of her last outing (15 days this time) and she has 1 win and 2 places from 3 Class 2 efforts whilst she also has a win and a place from 3 over this very course and distance.

Franny Norton rides her for the first time today, but he's having a good year on Mick Channon's horses when called upon. The partnership is 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) this year, including of relevance today...

  • 8 from 35 (22.9%) for 15.7pts (+44.9%) when sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 7 from 29 (24.1%) for 34.7pts (+119.7%) on horses rested for 11-45 days
  • 7 from 23 (30.4%) for 52.5pts (+228.4%) over trips of 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs
  • 7 from 19 (36.8%) for 44.3pts (+233.1%) on female horses
  • 6 from 16 (37.5%) for 41.6pts (+259.9%) in non-handicap races
  • 5 from 9 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+353.6%) on horses placed 3rd LTO
  • 2 from 5 (40%) for 8.45pts (+169%) on the A/W
  • and 1 from 2 950%) for 2.09pts (+104.5%) here at Wolverhampton...

...and from the above...Norton + Channon + 2018 + females + 5/4 to 10/1 + 5.5 to 8.5 furlongs + 11-45 dslr = 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.42pts (+388.4% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Summer Icon @ 11/4 BOG , a price offered by Bet365, Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th November 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.45 Ayr : Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG PU at 4/1 (Always behind, weakened 5 out, pulled up next) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

12.40 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 6 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Fibresand worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding was third here over course and distance just three days ago, but whilst he runs off the same mark today, he does take a drop in class, which could help. His mark is a workable 65, when you consider he has won off 79, 85 & 87 on turf in the past.

He's trainer David Griffiths' only runner of the day and David's horses have gone well here recently, winning 12 of 60 (20% SR) for 17.64pts (+29.4% ROI) in handicaps on this track since the start of 2017, including...

  • males at 10/53 (18.9%) for 19.53pts (+36.9%)
  • at Class 6 : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.09pts (+22.1%)
  • at odds of Evens to 11/2 : 10/21 (47.6%) for 24.1pts (+114.8%)
  • finished 2nd/3rd LTO : 3/10 (30%) for 3.18pts (+31.8%)
  • and ridden by Tom Marquand : 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.26pts (+171%)

...whilst Class 6 males at evens to 11/2 are 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.5% ROI)...

Fieldsman also pops us as a qualifier on two micros of mine, which I'll share now, but not dig down into (time is short this morning, I'm at the dentists shortly!), but both are very workable starting points for research...

1) Since 2013 in A/W handicaps over 7f/1m, USA-bred males aged 4 to 11 are 48 from 247 (19.4% SR) for 412.3pts (+166.9% ROI)

2) Whilst since the start of 2014 in Class 5/6 handicaps over 5f to 1m4f here, males aged 2 to 8 who were the clear top weight in their race won 96 of 375 (25.6% SR) for 180.2pts (+48.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fieldsman @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by pretty much everyone at 5.50pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Cheltenham TV Trends: Fri 16th Nov 2018

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Friday (16th Nov) as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the opening day of their three-day November Meeting.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

1:50 – BetVictor Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham before
13/16 – Raced at least 5 times over fences previously
12/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
9/16 – Unplaced in their previous race
8/16 – Having their first run of the season
8/16 – Favourites placed
7/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – French-bred horse
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/16 – Won their most recent race
2/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/16 – Trained by Paul Henderson (last 2 runnings)
0/16 – Irish-trained winners
Doitforthevillage won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

2.25 – Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
15/16 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously
14/16 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
14/16 – Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences
13/16 -  Finished in the top three in their latest race
12/16 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
12/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
10/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old  (9 of last 11 runnings)
9/16 – Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
8/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/16 – First run over fences
7/16 – Raced already that season
6/16 – French-bred horse
6/16 – Won their latest race
6/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
5/16 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
2/16 – Ridden by Noel Fehily
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Dynaste, Denman, Weird Al, Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus are all big names to win this race in recent years

Your first 30 days for just £1

3.00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f ITV

15/15 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
14/15 – Either Irish (8) or French (6) bred
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
11/15 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
11/15 – Had a recent run that season
11/15 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
11/15 – Unplaced in their last race
10/15 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (6 won)
10/15 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
6/15 – Trained by Enda Bolger
5/15 – Favourites that won
Josies Orders won this in 2015
The average SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

3.35 - Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV

14/14 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
14/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/14 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
11/14 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
11/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/14 – Aged 5 years-old
10/14 – Had raced at either Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (4) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
8/14 – Won just once before (under rules)
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Had won over 2 ½ (or further) over hurdles before
4/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/14 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 14th November 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.50 Lingfield : Lillington @ 7/2 BOG (2.98/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 9/4 (Prominent, hampered 5th, led after 4 out, challenged after next, stayed on well to win by 1.5 lengths) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG  

...in an 11-runner, Class 4 Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £6108 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old mare had a respectable record (32128) over hurdles in 2017 before taking a 345-day break. She then returned to action 32 days ago at Hexham, when she was a 5 lengths winner, staying on well, on her chasing debut, also at Class 4 over 2m4½f on Soft ground and ridden (as she always has been) by today's jockey Henry Brooke.

This suggests that she should feel at home under today's conditions, as she aims to give the sire Ask another winner. To date, his offspring are 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 22.7pts (+80.9% ROI) over fences, mainly in Ireland but with some success here too. With respect to today's race, those progeny of Ask are...

  • 5/17 (29.4%) for 20.14pts (+118.5%) as 6 yr olds
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 16.63pts (+127.9%) as females
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.46pts (+306.6%) in UK Class 4 contests
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 18.42pts (+307%) on Soft ground
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 27.31pts (+546.2%) over trips of 2m4.5f to 2m6f

This particular "daughter" is trained by Martin Todhunter, who enjoys coming here up the M6 from his South Cumbria base, as his runners are 10 from 54 (18.5% SR) for 23.64pts (+43.8% ROI) in NH handicaps over the last 5 years, with those sent off at odds of Evens to 12/1 (my preferred starting point for trainer based micros) wining 10 of 41 (24.4%) for 36.64pts at an ROI of some 89.4% and these include...

  • those who raced in the last 45 days : 9/31 (29%) for 29.32pts (+94.6%)
  • chasers are 6/25 (24%) for 21.1pts (+84.4%)
  • those racing over 2m4.5f/2m5.5f are 4/14 (28.6%) for 31.42pts (+224.4%)
  • in November : 3/10 (30%) for 1.65pts (+16.5%)
  • and LTO winners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.7%)

...and from the above...handicap chasers at Evens to 12/1 within 45 days of their last run are 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 10.8pts (+60% ROI), from which LTO winners are 3/4 975%) for 14.79pts (+369.7%) and those running in November are 2/4 (50%) for 5pts (+125%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sophie Olivia @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, Ladbrokes, SkyBet & Coral at 6.00pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th November 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.30 Kempton : Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Shade keen, chased leaders on inside, went 2nd at 9th, pushed along and one pace before 3 out, eased down when no chance with winner) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lillington @ 7/2 BOG  

...in a 6-runner, Class 3 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on Soft ground worth £9748 to the winner...

Why?

Three of the six on show here today have been off the track for some time (164 to 218 days) with the other three having raced as recently as 17 to 46 days ago and of these three, our 6 yr old gelding is definitely the form horse, having won two of his last three and wasn't disgraced in finishing fourth at Cheltenham LTO in a Class 2 contest 17 days ago.

He's now eased a pound by the assessor and takes a drop in class to attempt to improve on a chasing record of 2 wins and 2 places from 7 attempts (all whilst wearing a tongue tie), including...

  • 2 wins and a place from 5 under today's jockey Tom Scudamore
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in handicap chases
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 when sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 in cheekpieces
  • 2 wins from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins from 2 over trips of 2m-2m1f
  • and whilst he hasn't won on soft ground yet, he has made the frame in all three efforts to date, including 2 runs over fences.

His trainer Colin Tizzard is in good form too with 6 winners from 23 (26.1% SR) for 24.02pts (+104.4% ROI) over the last week and whilst he doesn't run many here at "leafy", those that have been sent here are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 1.58pts (+17.6%) in NH handicaps since the start of 2016, from which Class 3 runners are 3/6 (50%) for 4.58pts (+76.4%), whilst Class 3 handicap chasers are 2 from 4 950%) for 2.76pts (+69%).

As I intimated above, Tom Scudamore is in the saddle again today and he's 5 from 19 (26.3% SR) for 23.4pts (+123.2% ROI) in handicap chases at this venue since 2010, including 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 2.93pts (+41.9%) over this 2m C&D and 2 from 6 (50%) for 8.35pts (+139.2%) at Class 3.

But today's main stats refer back to the horse and his recent form. The last two entries on his form line read 14, making him one of my 1-2/3/4 horses, whereby...

...Since 2013 in Class 3 to 5, UK NH handicap chases over 2m to 3m1f on ground deemed good or softer, horses who won two starts ago (ie the 1) and then finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th (the 2/3/4 bit) last time out less than three weeks ago are 110/475 (23.2% SR) for 230.2pts (+48.5% ROI)...

These are essentially horses in good form, turned back out fairly quickly in the hope of getting at least one good run out of them before a rest. Of course, 475 chasers from one angle is too many bets to back blindly for most people, so let's break them down with today's contest in mind, shall we? If we did, we'd find that...

  • males are 102/442 (23.1%) for 20.7pts (+49.9%)
  • those last seen 11-20 days ago are 84/380 (22.1%) for 212.6pts (+55.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 36/164 (22%) for 138.7pts (+84.6%)
  • those finishing 4th LTO are 30/122 (24.6%) for 130.1pts (+106.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 24/87 (27.6%) for 92.5pts (+106.3%)
  • in November : 18/64 (28.1%) for 81.3pts (+127.1%)
  • and over a 2m trip : 12/47 (25.5%) for 19.2pts (+40.9%)

And from the above, since 2014, Class 3 males who finished 4th, 11 to 20 days earlier are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 70.7pts (+220.9% ROI), including 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 70.93pts (+709.3%) in November and 4 wins from 10 (40%) for 57.37pts (+573.7%) from 6 yr olds...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Lillington @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor, SkyBet & Coral at 5.50pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.45 Doncaster : Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 6/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on same pace final furlong) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3 Mares Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m5f on Good ground worth £9747 to the winner...  

Why?

This 8 yr old mare's most recent form is both impressive and consistent with finishes of 22F22141 in her last eight outings, with the final three (141) being her record in handicap chases, concluding in a win LTO (albeit 207 days ago) in a Listed contest over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham, so if she's ready to go, a double drop in class could help today.

Regular jockey Lee Edwards is in the saddle once again and will be hoping to improve this mare's record which already includes of relevance today...

  • 3 wins and 2 places from 9 at trips beyond 2.5 miles
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 in a hood
  • 2 wins and a place from 7 with a tongue tie
  • 2 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins from 4 on good ground

She's by Midnight Legend and regular/long-standing readers will know of my fondness for backing offspring of this particular (but sadly now departed) stallion, not because of sentiment however, but because there are a myriad of profitable angles associated with him. Today's flagged Midnight Legend micro is another of those that looks more complicated in print than it really is, but here goes...

...UK / NH / 3m1f or shorter / Good ground or softer / Class 2-4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / 3 weeks to 8 months off track...

...which might seem a fairly narrow category, but today's pick will be the 800th qualifier since the start of 2013 and with 142 winners (17.8% SR) and 260.5pts (+32.6% ROI) profit in that time, it's a handy one to keep an eye on. With respect to today's contest, those 799 runners are...

  • 99/540 (18.3%) for 218.4pts (+40.4%) in handicaps
  • 48/283 (17%) for 71.7pts (+25.4%) over fences
  • 41/241 (17%) for 59.4pts (+29.7%) in handicap chases
  • 55/237 (23.2%) for 188.9pts (+79.7%) at Class 3
  • 42/212 (19.8%) for 117.9pts (+55.6%) on Good ground
  • 45/207 (21.7%) for 126pts (+60.9%) in females-only races
  • 32/191 (16.8%) for 72.2pts (+37.8%) after a break of 3 to 8 months
  • 33/139 (23.7%) for 29.2pts (+21%) from LTO winners
  • 24/119 (20.2%) for 73.4pts (+61.7%) as 8 yr olds
  • and 11/67 (16.4%) for 45.2pts (+67.4%) over the 2m5f trip

...whilst, from the above, for a smaller number of bets per year : Class 3 handicap chasers are 22/101 (21.8%) for 50.75pts (+50.25% ROI) with those sent off at 5/2 to 5/1 winning 13 of 28 (34.2%) for 21.2pts (+55.8%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Target @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 7.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.05 Warwick : Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, lost place 7th, tailed off after 13th, soon pulled up) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a runner-up in another Class 2, 7 furlong handicap off today's mark 25 days ago, going down by just half a length to Muntadab, who has since run twice : winning again at this class/trip before finishing as a runner-up in a Listed contest at Newmarket last Saturday, beaten only by our SotD selection, Mitchum Swagger.

Our trainer today is Ian Williams, whose runners are 17 from 105 (16.2% SR) for 13.4pts (+12.7% ROI) here at Doncaster since 2009, of which handicappers priced shorter than 10/1 (my preferred odds range for my personal betting) are 14 from 45 (31.1% SR) for 42.75pts (+95% ROI).

It makes sense to focus on these 45 handicappers today and in the context of this race, they are...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 40.33pts (+100.8%) when competing for less than £13k prize money
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 41.1pts (+171.3%) racing within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 29.45pts (+155%) in 2017/18
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 26.68pts (+222.3%) after a break of 21-25 days

...AND from the above...2017/18, 7/1 and shorter, 21-25 dslr for less than £13k = 3/5 (60% SR) for 18.36pts (+367.2% ROI), including 1/1 at Class 2 for 6.28pts profit.

I'm also happy to see the Doyler (James Doyle) in the saddle today, as he's in great form, winning 14 of 35 (40% SR) over the last 30 days and 9 of 23 (39.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record for Ian Williams in handicaps is an excellent 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 9.3pts (+20.2% ROI) over the last three years...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG, a price widely available at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 10th Nov 2018

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also at Aintree to take in one of their contests as always we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – Marathonbet Sportsbook British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/14 – Had won at least twice before
11/14 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
11/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/14 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
7/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/14 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/14 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/14 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

 

2.05 – Marathonbet Official Global Partner Of Manchester City Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

13/15 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
13/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won over 6f before
13/15 – Won from stall 12 or lower
12/15 – Rated 99 or higher
12/15 – Aged 4 or older
10/15 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
8/15 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/15 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/15 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

3.15 - Marathonbet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

12/15 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/15 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
12/15 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
12/15 – Favourites that were unplaced
11/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
10/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
10/15 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
10/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
2/15 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 5 times in all)
1/15 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

 

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 – Hunts Food Service Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/11 – Rated between 119-129
8/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
7/11 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
7/11 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
5/11 – Had run at the track before
5/11 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

 

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2.25 – Bet At racinguk.com ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

11/11 – Had won no more than twice over fences
10/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Favourites placed
9/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
8/11 – Irish (4) or French (4) bred
8/11 – Aged 6 or younger
7/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

 

 

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Rated 150 or lower
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/14 – Having first run of the season
5/14 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/14 – Carried 10-6 or less
5/14 – Won with 11-10 in weight
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/14 – Trained by John Quinn
2/14 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

 

3.35 - Badger Ales Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/15 – Won at least two chase races previously
13/15 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
12/15 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
12/15 –  Raced at the course previously (5 won over fences)
12/15 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
12/15  – Placed in the top four in their last race
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Raced already that season
9/15 – Irish-bred horse
8/15 – Raced at either Sandown (2), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/15 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/15 – Priced at double-figures
7/15 – Won their latest race
5/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
5/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/15 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 4 of the last 8 years)
Present Man (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 17/2

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.40 – Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f ITV

13/13 – Aged 9 or younger
13/13 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won 2 or less times over fences before
10/13 – Last raced over 6 months ago
10/13 – Aged 8 or younger
10/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Had won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/13 – Rated between 119 and 130
9/13 – Had raced at Aintree before
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/13 – Winning favourites
On Tour (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 9th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.20 Sedgefield : Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Held up in touch, headway 4 out, soon ridden, weakened after next, tailed off) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £5198 to the winner... 

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding was a winner by 3 lengths over 3m2.5f in a similar Class 4 contest under today's jockey Nick Scholfield when last seen 102 days ago, taking his record in sub-£6,000 Class 4 handicap chases to 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts and whilst he's been off the track for almost 3.5 months now, I'm not over concerned, as he's made the frame of four of five runs off a break of 3 to 6 months previously.

He is trained by Jeremy Scott and the trainer's record in such contests will form the backbone of today's analysis, as his Class 4 handicap chasers have won 35 of 160 (21.9% SR) for 94.3pts (+58.9% ROI) profits since the start of 2014 and whilst I rarely advocate blindly backing one of my starter angles, you could actually do far worse than just back these, as there's an average of less than 40 per year.

That said, I/you would probably still want to apply some filters to improve both SR and ROI, so we could try...

  • males at 33/152 (21.7%) for 91.5pts (+60.2%)
  • 6-10 yr olds at 32/125 (25.6%) for 101.6pts (+81.3%)
  • priced at 7/4 to 13/2 at 24/83 (28.9%) for 35.2pts (+42.4%)
  • on Good ground at 19/79 (24.1%) for 34.8pts (+44%)
  • ridden by Nick Scholfield at 16/64 (25%) for 60.2pts (+94%)
  • in 2018, they are 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.8pts (+88.7%)
  • from November to January : 8/36 (22.2%) for 52.9pts (+147%)
  • stayers over 3m2f to 3m4f are 10/28 (35.7%) for 14.5pts (+51.9%)
  • 10 yr olds are 6/25 (24%) for 5.37pts (+21.5%)
  • at Warwick : 2/11 (18.2%) for 8.46pts (+76.9%)
  • and after a break of 3 to 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+132.1%)

Yet, I know there are plenty of you who like a nice composite angle they can follow, so the following simple micro (derived from the above) might work for you...

...6-12 yr old males priced at 7/4 to 13/2 on ground with the word Good in the official description are 18 from 47 (38.3% SR) for 44pts profit at an attractive ROI of 93.6%, from which Nick Scholfield is 6/19 (31.6%) for 13.66pts (+71.9%), whilst the 3.25 to 3.5 mile stayers are 7 from 12 (58.3%) for 20.82pts (+173.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Warwick

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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