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Stat of the Day, 21st January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG 11th at 9/2 (Led until 8f out, settled tracking leaders over 6f out, weakening when hung left over 1f out )

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Warwick:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £5198 to the winner...

Why?

Here we have a 9 yr old gelding in excellent form, having won four of his last six starts (inc 3 wins from his last 4 over fences) culminating in him landing the Class 3 Lincolnshire National by 5 lengths on Boxing Day at Market Rasen. A drop in both trip and class await him today and I expect another bold show, especially considering...

...as his trainer Dan Skelton has got his horses going really well right now, winning 15 of 74 (20.3% SR) for 48pts (+64.8% ROI) over the last 30 days with that record improving to 7/28 (25%) for 5.9pts (+21%) in the last fortnight, whilst since the start of 2015, the chasers he has sent here to Warwick have won 15 of 42 (35.7% SR) for profits of 7.09pts (+17.3% ROI) backed blindly.

Now, that's not the biggest sample size I've ever used, but Warwick isn't the busiest of tracks from a chasing perspective and of interest today from those runners...

  • jockey Harry Skelton is 14/32 (43.8%) for 16.09pts (+50.3%)
  • handicappers are 10/29 (34.5%) for 7.66pts (+26.4%)
  • those sent off at 4/1 or shorter are 15/26 (57.7%) for 23.09pts (+92.3%)
  • those racing after less than a month's rest are 11/24 (45.8%) for 11.58pts (+48.2%)
  • Class 4 : 8/15 (53.3%) for 9.38pts (+67%)
  • class droppers are 5/11 (45.5%) for 6.13pts (+55.7%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 7/10 (70%) for 14.5pts (+145%)

...whilst from the above...Harry Skelton on sub-9/2 handicappers with a run in the previous month = 9/13 (69.2% SR) for 18.28pts (+140.6% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 = 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.37pts (+133.8%)
  • Good to Soft = 3/3 (100%) for 7.85pts (+261.6%)
  • Class droppers : 2/2 (100%) for 5.05pts (+252.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Ange Des Malberaux @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by half a dozen firms at 2.00am on Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

1.45 Musselbrugh: Elmono @ 11/4 BOG NR (Meeting abandoned, due to frost)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, handicap over 1f on standard going...

Why?

Matt here in place of Chris for one day only, and I'm taking a chance at a price on an interesting horse. Actually, the trainer is more interesting than the horse inasmuch as Michael Bell has 'previous' whereas Power Of Life has thus far looked, and indeed may turn out to be, thoroughly moderate!

But then, this is a race for moderate horses and the pick is stepping into handicap company for the first time. Therein lies the crux:

Michael Bell has a record with handicap debutants in the last two years of 12 winners from 65 runners (26, 40%, placed, +8.25). In other words, there is a solid chance that his runner here will step forward if he's ever going to be capable of doing that.

Bell at Wolverhampton is another rock solid angle:

One year course form is 5/18 (27.78%, +56.75)
Five year course form is 19/108 (17.59%, +61.36)

Putting the two together:

Michael Bell handicap debutants at Wolverhampton in the last five years: 3/11 (27.27%, +8.38)

The trainer is in good form, having recorded a win and a second from his last three runners. So, in what is a complete guess up where those with form look extremely ordinary, it's worth taking the chance of a total blowout on a horse like Power Of Life, whose trainer is adept at this particular trick. He's certainly found the right slot for the horse if he has any ability whatsoever. So...

...it's a 1pt win bet on Power Of Life @ 7/1 BOG as was offered by Hills, Fred, Tote, Betfair and Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Friday evening. bet365 were 15/2 at that time, if you can get that. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Sat TV Trends: 19th Jan 2019

It’s off to Haydock and Ascot this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action with the Clarence House Chase and Peter Marsh Chase the two big highlights – like all big race days we've got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle…….use these to help whittle down the final runners and find the best winning profiles of past winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - OLBG.com Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
8/9 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
8/9 – From the top 4 in the betting
8/9 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/9 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
7/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
6/9 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/9 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Newbury (2) in their last race
6/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Won their last race
5/9 – Winning Favourites
4/9 – French bred
3/9 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/9 – Aged 6 years-old
2/9 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/9 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/9 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 4 runnings

2.25 – Matchbook Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

9/11 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/11 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
8/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
8/11 – Officially rated 139 or higher
8/11 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
7/11 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/11 – French bred
6/11 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/11 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
5/11 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
5/11 – Had raced at Ascot previously
5/11 – Won their last race
5/11 – Aged 6 years-old
3/11 – Trained by David Pipe
3/11 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/11 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/11 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/11 – Favourites (1 co)
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

12/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
11/12 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred
9/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
9/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/12 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/12 – Aged 8 or younger
6/12 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
5/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/12 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Winning Favourites

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

3.35 – Matchbook Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

16/16 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
16/16 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/16 – Favourites placed
12/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
11/16 – Won their last race
10/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
10/16 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
9/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Favourites that won
8/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 4 times in all)
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

12/12 – Aged 7 or younger
12/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
11/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
6/12 – Had raced at Haydock previously
6/12 – Winning Favourites
4/12 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/12 – French bred
2/12 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/12 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 11/4
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

2.40 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

13/13 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
13/13 – Favourites placed in the top 3
11/13 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/13 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/13 -  From the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
10/13 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
10/13 – Officially Rated 152 or higher
10/13 – Either French (3) or Irish (7) bred
9/13 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (5) last time out
7/13 – Aged 7 or younger
8/13 – Winning Favourites
4/13 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/13 – Won their last race
1/13 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
The average SP in the last 8 runnings is 2/1

3.15 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

15/15 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
14/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
13/15 – Had run within the last 36 days
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
10/15 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
10/15 – Won at Haydock previously
10/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
9/15 – Favourites unplaced
9/15 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
8/15 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/15 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/15 – Won over fences at Haydock before
6/15 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
5/15 – Raced in the Roland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
3/15 – Trained by Sue Smith
2/15 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 18th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

2.05 Market Rasen : Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/1 (Led, headed 8th, dropped to rear 10th, eased after 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elmono @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 3-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £4938 to the winner...

Why?

As usual, I'll have more to say on this a little later...

...but for now, it's a 1pt win bet on Elmono @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. A quick headsup about the next couple of picks : I'm away for the weekend from tomorrow afternoon, so Matt's in the hotseat for Saturday's pick and I'll be doing Monday's pick when I get home, but it won't appear until after midnight Sunday at the earliest! Sorry for any inconvenience caused.

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.25 Lingfield :Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Dwelt in rear, pushed along over 2f out, some headway entering final furlong, switched right inside final furlong, never nearer)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3½f on Good To Soft worth £7343 to the winner...

Why?

This 10 yr old appears all over my stats sheets for today's racing ticking lots of boxes as well as looking like having a great chance of yet another good run, so rather than bore you with all the data I've got in front of me, I'm going to briefly tell you a little about why I'm backing it broken down into horse/trainer/sire components.

The horse...

...is a 10 yr old gelding with 9 top 3 finishes from 11 starts (all in hcp chases, all wearing cheekpieces) since moving to Peter Bowen's yard, winning five times including a 17 length win in a 2-horse race LTO 10 days ago. Of that 5 from 11 record since switching homes, he is...

  • 5/9 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5/9 at odds of 6/1 or shorter
  • 5/9 for prizes of less than £9k
  • 2/6 at Class 3
  • and 2/3 under today's jockey Sean Bowen

Sean himself has a good record here at this track, but it is largely intertwined with the record of...

...today's trainer...

Peter Bowen, whose handicap chasers sent off at odds of 2/1 to 8/1 here at Market Rasen are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 41.4pts (+96.3% ROI) since 2010, from which Class 3 runners are 6/17 (35.3%) for 11.94pts (+70.3%)

And more generally, Peter's handicap chasers who won LTO are 27 from 91 (29.7% SR) for 51.5pts (+56.6% ROI) since the start of 2015, with those returning from a rest of 5 weeks or less winning 26 of 81 (32.1%) for 58.7pts (+72.4%)

...and finally, the sire...

...is Desert King, whose offspring have won 19 of 95 (20% SR) handicap chases since the start of 2016, generating 54.2pts profit at an ROI of 57%, of which those racing 1 to 8 weeks after their run are 16/76 (21%) for 48.6pts (+63.9%), whilst Class 3 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 14.23pts (+158.1%)

...all pointing to a 1pt win bet on Ontopoftheworld @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair, Bet365 and Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.20 Newcastle : Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Tracked leader, led 2 out, ridden out to win by 0.75 lengths)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 7f on polytrack worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

OK, big day today as I attempt to celebrate my 50th birthday with an SotD-record equalling (so I'm informed) sixth winner on the bounce via a 5 yr old gelding with two wins from his last five outings including a course and distance success here 11 days ago when ridden by today's jockey Katherine Begley (Glenister) for the first time.

Kathy (excuse the familiarity) is 3 from 9 (33.3% SR) for 15.8pts (+175.6% ROI) on trainer David Evans' runners in the last four weeks with another 3 of those runners making the frame, including 3 winners from 7 (42.9%) for 17.8pts (+254.3%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter from which the partnership is 2 from 4 (50%) for 12.73pts (+318.1%) over this 7f trip.

Meanwhile (and from a larger dataset), David Evans' runners sent off at odds of 10/1 and shorter in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield are 23 from 117 (19.7% SR) for 34.5pts (+29.5% ROI) and with today's runner/contest firmly in mind, those 117 runners are...

  • 18/88 (20.5%) for 41.6pts (+47.2%) as 3-6 yr olds
  • 18/73 (24.7%) for 47.1pts (+64.5%) off a mark (OR) of 56-80
  • 13/61 (21.3%) for 43.6pts (+71.5%) over 7-10 furlongs
  • 16/60 (26.7%) for 58pts (+96.7%) 11-25 days after their last run
  • 15/56 (26.8%) for 48.7pts (+87%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 40.7pts (+131.4%) in January
  • and 5/22 (22.7%) for 14.6pts (+66.4%) over this 7f C&D

And if you wanted a composite from the above, you could try...3-6 yr olds off marks of 56-80 over 7-10f running 6-25 dslr for 9 winners from 19 (47.4% SR) and 65.6pts (+345.4% ROI) profit which include's Kodiline's win LTO and also...

  • with 8-13 runners : 9/15 (60%) for 69.6pts (+464.1%)
  • in January : 6/11 (54.6%) for 39.9pts (+362.3%)
  • 8-13 runners in Jan : 6/8 (75%) for 42.9pts (+535.6%)
  • over 7f : 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.7pts (+309.7%)
  • 8-13 runners over 7f : 3/6 (50%) for 22.7pts (+378%)
  • over 7f in Jan : 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)
  • and 8-13 runners over 7f in Jan : also 2/3 (66.6%) for 14.3pts (+476.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Kodiline @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Ladbrokes at 4.40pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Fontwell : Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 (Chased leaders, 2nd before 4 out, led before next, driven out)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Good To Soft ground worth £4614 to the winner...

Why?

A little shorter in price than I normally aim at, but only five runners are set to go to post and this one comes here off the back of a win at Ayr on soft ground 13 days ago. Now running at the same class and trip off the same mark (105) and under the same jockey (Derek Fox), I see no reason why he wouldn't be involved in the shake-up once again.

His record in handicap chases stands at 6 from 29 (20.7% SR) for 9.78pts (+33.7% ROI) profit and here are some of the ways (all relevant today), he got those wins...

  • all 6 came from 24 (25%) runs wearing a tongue tie for 14.78pts (+61.6%)
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 17.11pts (+90.1%) off a mark (OR) greater than 95
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 15.16pts (+116.6%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 4/20 (20%) for 8.08pts (+40.4%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.42pts (+68.4%) when sent off as favourite
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.28pts (+20.7%) under Derek Fox
  • 2/2 (100%) for 15.47pts (+773.5%) on Good to Soft ground
  • and 2/10 920%) for 1.64pts (+16.4%) over this 2m½f trip

In addition to these stats, his form in 5 runs here at Newcastle reads 22221 and from the above... at Class 4 off a mark north of 95 wearing a tongue tie with less than 3 weeks rest = 2 from 4 (50% SR) for 13.47pts (+336.% ROI).

Over the last 9 months, his trainer Lucinda Russell has had 6 winners from 16 (37.5% SR) on the NH track here at Newcastle and these have generated 11.64pts profit at an ROI of 72.8%, including the following of note today...

  • in handicaps : 5/14 (35.7%) for 10.99pts (+78.5%)
  • males : 5/13 (38.5%) for 12.03pts (+92.5%)
  • prizes of £4k-£8k : 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.39pts (+87.6%)
  • shorter than 13/2 SP : 6/11 (54.5%) for 16.64pts (+151.3%)
  • Class 4 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.35pts (+162.2%)
  • Derek Fox : 4/6 (66.6%) for 15.59pts (+259.9%)
  • and over this 2m½f trip : 2/5 (40%) for 10.7pts (+214%)

...whilst from the above... male handicappers sent off at 6/1 and shorter tilting at a prize of £4k to £8k are 3/6 (50% SR) for 13.13pts (+218.9% ROI), from which they are 2/4 at Class 4, 2/3 under Derek Fox, 2/3 over this 2m½f trip and 2 from 2 under the jockey/class/distance combo!

And finally (!) for today, it's worth noting that in UK Class 4 handicap chases over 2m/2m½f on good to soft ground since 2014 (definitely a niche angle!), males running at the same class as an LTO hcp chase win in the previous 3 weeks are 9 from 19 (47.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+118.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Mumgos Debut @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

6.30 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG WON at 2/1 (Held up in rear, headway over 1f out, pushed along to lead inside final furlong, idled towards finish, just held on by a short head)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Fontwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m1½f on Good To Soft ground worth £3119 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is another one who's hardly prolific, having not won a race in just over a year, but since moving to Chris Gordon's yard he has raced 3 times (all here at Fontwell and all under today's jockey Tom Cannon) and has made the frame twice : once over fences and once over hurdles.

He now runs off a lower mark than his last win (at Ayr back in Jan '18) and now seeks to improve his handler's already decent record at this venue, particularly in handicap hurdle contests where Chris's runners are 38/222 (17.1% SR) for 221.3pts profit at an ROI of 99.7% from blindly backing them since 2010. Of course, that approach isn't for everyone, but it produce several interesting/profitable angles including...

  • 5-9 yr olds : 37/202 (18.3%) for 234.8pts (+116.3%)
  • males : 30/173 (17.3%) for 198.9pts (+115%)
  • at 6/4 to 10/1 : 28/140 920%) for 40.3pts (+28.8%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 29/132 (22%) for 189.8pts (+143.8%)
  • ridden by Tom Cannon : 25/127 (19.7%) for 39.5pts (+84.9%)
  • off a mark of 90-110 : 24/125 (19.2%) for 221.1pts (+176.9%)
  • Class 5 : 19/104 (18.3%) for 85.4pts (+82.1%)
  • at 2m1½f to 2m2½f : 7/56 (12.5%) for 30.2pts (+53.9%)
  • and over the last 5 years at 6/4 to 5/1 : 13/43 (30.2%) for 13pts (+30.2%)

...and from the above... 5-9yo males @ 6/4-9/1 @ 6-20 dslr like today's runner = 13/37 (35.1% SR) for 44.5pts (+120.3% ROI), from which...

  • Tom Cannon is 11/30 (36.7%) for 44.5pts (+148.3%)
  • OR 90-110 = 7/19 (36.8%) for 24.2pts (+127.3%)
  • Class 5 = 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.7pts (+141.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 = 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.6pts (+153.7%)
  • Tom Cannon + Class 5 = 5/12 (41.7%) for 26.7pts (+222.3%)
  • Class 5 + OR 90-110 = 2/8 (25%) for 2.46pts (+30.7%)
  • and Tom Cannon + OR 90-110 + Class 5 = 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.46pts (+74.3%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sky Full of Stars @ 9/2 BOG as was offered by Betfair and Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday evening with plenty of 4/1 BOG offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th January 2019

Friday's Pick was...

7.45 Wolverhampton : A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Chased leader, ridden and ran on to lead well inside final furlong, winning by a nose)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Firstly, a warning...this 6 yr old is hardly prolific at 4 from 38 and without a win in his last 8 outings, so why would he now make it 5 from 39?

Well, that last win was a Class 4 C&D contest when he won off today's mark of 76 back in March of last year and he showed signs of a return to form in another C4 C&D contest last time out, when 3rd under today's jockey 10 days ago, just 2 necks behind the winner and course specialist Nick Vedder in a tight finish and he now takes a drop in class.

And whilst he is admittedly 4 from 38, that doesn't tell the whole story, as he has 3 wins and 6 places from just 13 runs on the tapeta here at Newcastle, including 2 wins and 3 places from over the 6f course and distance and he's 2 from 2 after less than 2 weeks rest here.

That's possibly not enough data to convince you yet, so like A Sure Welcome yesterday, this one comes from a sire whose progeny excel on this surface. Basically offspring of the sire Frozen Power are 25/127 (19.7% SR) for 71.6pts (+56.3% ROI) over 5 to 8.5 furlongs on tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of at least 7 runners : 24/121 (19.8%) for 74.7pts (+61.7%)
  • for prizes below £4k : 22/100 (22%) for 86.4pts (+86.4%)
  • 4-45 days since last run : 21/98 (21.4%) for 75.7pts (+77.3%)
  • in handicaps : 18/95 (19%) for 68.7pts (+72.3%)
  • off a mark of 56-79 : 18/78 (23.1%) for 85.3pts (+109.4%)
  • at evens to 8/1 : 23/69 (33.3%) for 53.5pts (+77.5%)
  • beaten by 0.25 to 4 lengths LTO : 10/37 (27%) for 25.7pts (+69.5%)
  • and 4-10 dslr : 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.24pts (+37.5%)

...from which... in handicap fields of 7 or more runners competing  for less than £4k off a mark of 56 or higher at odds of evens to 8/1 some 4 to 45 days after their last run = 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 33pts (+97.1% ROI), including 4 winners from (44.4%) for 8.78pts (+97.5%) with no more than 10 days rest.

Another positive is the fact that over the last two years, trainer Nigel Tinkler's Flat/AW handicappers dropping down a grade are 20 from 84 (23.8% SR) for 48.8pts (+58.1% ROI), including...

  • within 30 days of last run : 19/67 (28.4%) for 62.8pts (+93.7%)
  • sub-12/1 runners are 19/57 (33.3%) for 57.6pts (+101.1%)
  • OR 56-79 : 16/48 (3.3%) for 66.9pts (+139.3%)
  • 6/7 furlongs : 12/38 (31.6%) for 47.3pts (+124.5%)
  • 6 furlongs : 9/29 (31%) for 33.6pts (+115.8%)
  • 2nd to 4th LTO : 10/24 (41.7%) for 33.9pts (+141%)
  • beaten by more than a neck but less than 3L LTO : 6/16 (37.5%) for 16.59pts (+103.6%)
  • on tapeta : 4/13 (30.8%) for 4.92pts (+37.8%)
  • Class 5 : 5/12 (41.7%) for 11.25pts (+93.8%)
  • and here at Newcastle : 3/12 (25%) for 4.02pts (+33.5%)

...and from that little lot...over 5f to 1m off OR of 56-79 @ sub-12/1 odds within 30 days of last run = 12/25 (48% SR) for 48.38pts (+193.5% ROI) and this includes 8 winners from 12 (66.6%) for 24.13pts (+201.1%) from those with a top 4 finish last time out...

...pointing to a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 3/1 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 6.35pm on Friday evening, although those with an unrestricted SkyBet account could get an extra third of a point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 12th Jan 2019

More LIVE ITV racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to Warwick for the Classic Chase, plus they are also at Kempton Park with the Lanzarote Hurdle their main event.

As normal we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
4/5 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
4/5 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Had won over fences at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/4
Waiting Patiently won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King is just 3 from 39 (8%) with her chasers at the track

 

2.40 – Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
12/17 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
11/17 – Irish (6) or French (5) bred
10/17 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/17 -  Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (37 runnings) 32 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

 

3.15 – Unibet Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just six previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Had run at the track before
5/6 – Unplaced last time out
4/6 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/6 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
5/6 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/6 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
4/6 – Placed favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 is 5/1
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

 

3.45 – Unibet Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/10 – Aged 6 or older
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
8/10 – Aged 6 years-old
8/10 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Returned a double-figure price
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

 

4 weeks' free access to Geegeez Gold

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – McCoy Contractors 2019 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
11/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/11 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
9/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/11 – Aged 7 years-old
7/11 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Irish bred
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

 

 

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/12 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
8/12 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 3/1

 

 

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
12/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/13 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
9/13 – Officially rated between 129-140
9/13 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
8/13 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/13 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/13 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price
6/13 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 10.5/1

 

 

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

13/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/13 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
10/13 – Officially rated between 126-142
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Placed favourites
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/13 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

 

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Stat of the Day, 11th January 2019

Thursday's Pick was...

12.45 Southwell : Azari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 4/1 (Made all, quickened 3 lengths clear 3f out, ran on unchallenged to win by 7 lengths)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 6f on tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was only beaten by a short head last time out, when running over this very same course and distance 25 days ago, finishing 2 lengths clear of The Golden Cue, who went on to win over 6f last week.

That result took our boy's career figures to 6 wins and 4 places from 18 starts on the A/W with the 33.3% win strike rate generating level stakes profits of 43.9pts at an ROI of some 243.7%, all in handicaps. With regards to this contest, those figures include...

  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 44.9pts (+264.1%) in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 27.3pts (+210.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 35.67pts (+396.3%) after a break of just 11-25 days
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 18.1pts (+362%) with the above three conditions all in play together

His suitability for the task ahead is backed up by the fact he and his fellow offspring of the sire Pastoral Pursuits (who himself had 6 wins and 2 places from 8 at 6/7 furlongs, including winning a Group 1) are 40 from 170 (23.5% SR) for 108.9pts (64.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 6/4 to 12/1 over 5f to a mile on Tapeta and these include of relevance today...

  • in fields of 8-14 runners : 37/154 (24%) for 105.6pts (+68.6%)
  • in handicaps : 32/146 (21.9%) for 102.8pts (+70.4%)
  • competing for less than £4,000 : 34/135 (25.2%) for 110.4pts (+81.8%)
  • males : 28/125 (22.4%) for 88.5pts (+70.8%)
  • over the last 3yrs : 31/121 (25.6%) for 103.6pts (+85.6%)
  • 1-25 days since last run : 30/111 (27%) for 84.8pts (+76.4%)
  • top 3 finish LTO : 22/69 (31.9%) for 61.8pts (+89.6%)
  • Class 5 : 17/63 (27%) for 54.5pts (+86.5%)
  • over 6f : 13/59 (22%) for 46.8pts (+79.4%)
  • 5/6 yr olds : 17/55 (30.9%) for 41.4pts (+75.2%)
  • off a mark of 70-80 : 14/45 (31.1%) for 38.6pts (+85.8%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on A Sure Welcome @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by a half dozen or so firms at 5.50pm on Thursday evening, although those with an unrestricted Coral account could get an extra half point if they were lucky/quick. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2019

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.45 Kempton : Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Held up, pushed along 2f out, stayed on final furlong, not trouble leaders)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

12.45 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Azari @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m4f on fibresand worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding was a course and distance winner under today's jockey Ryan Rossa (who has a good record at this track and also fares well for this yard) and although he's up 3lbs to a mark of 73, he's still expected to go well again today.

After all, it's not too long ago that he was winning at Class 3 off a mark of 92 and was running off 93 less than a year ago. He initially caught my eye because he's on the Geegeez Shortlist report, which highlighted that he's 2 from 6 (inc 1/1 here at Southwell) on standard A/W, he has 3 wins and 2 places from 11 over this 1m4f trip (1/1 over C&D) and that he's 2 from 4 at Class 5/6. Throw in the fact that he has 3 wins and a place from 10 runs after a break of 3 to 6 weeks and you've got a good set of conditions to run in.

However, the real reason I was keen to back him was because he's conceding at least 5lbs to all six rivals, which might make you think I've lost the plot as many see this as a negative, but over the last 5 years in Class 5 handicaps over 5f to 1m6f on the A/W here at Southwell, clear top weights are 56/236 (23.7% SR) for 95.1pts (+40.3% ROI) backed blindly!

And of those 236 top weights...

  • those competing for less than £4k are 55/226 (24.3%) for 103.3pts (+45.7%)
  • males are 46/192 (24%) for 107.9pts (+56.2%)
  • at the same class as LTO : 39/142 (27.5%) for 33.5pts (+23.6%)
  • those racing off a mark of 73-77 are 31/121 (25.6%) for 107pts (+88.4%)
  • same trip as LTO : 29/108 (26.9%) for 33.4pts (+30.9%)
  • last 2 yrs : 19/90 (21.1%) for 83.9pts (+93.2%)
  • 6-8 yr olds : 17/76 (22.4%) for 106.2pts (+139.7%)
  • LTO winners are 30/65 (46.2%) for 31.7pts (+48.8%)
  • in January : 14/59 (23.7%) for 46.8pts (+79.3%)
  • same C&D as LTO : 12/49 (24.5%) for 4.55pts (+9.3%)
  • and over this 1m4f C&D : 12/43 (27.9%) for 122.3pts (+284.5%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Azari @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by BetVictor, Coral & Ladbrokes at 6.05pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.45 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2019

Tuesday's Pick was...

2.00 Ayr : Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent and lost place 4th, given reminders and soon closed back up, not fluent 7th, led 9th, headed 4 out, lost 2nd after 2 out and well beaten 3rd last)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m3f on polytrack worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got an in-form 6 yr old mare who's well drawn and comes here off the back of an LTO win at this very track 5 weeks ago. In all honestly, she really needed the line to come that day over 1m4f, so a slight drop back in trip might not be a bad thing.

To date she has 6 wins and 5 places from her 19 handicap visits to this track, including...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 155.6pts (+864.3%) in fields of 7 or more runners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 158.6pts (+1057.1%) when aiming for a prize of £4,000 or less
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 162.6pts (+1477.9%) in the October-March half of the year
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.34pts (+84.9%) in cheekpieces
  • and 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 14.34pts (+239%) when all four above conditions have been in place, as they are today.

Magic Mirror is trainer Mark Rimell's only runner anywhere today and over the last five years, when his only runner of the day was running on the A/W, he has landed the spoils on 8 of 47 (17% SR) occasions at an A/E of 1.59 and generating level stakes profits of 145.7pts at an ROI of 310% along the way.

With this contest in mind, those 47 runners are...

  • 8/45 (17.8%) for 147.7pts (+328.2%) in handicaps
  • 8/43 (18.6%) for 149.7pts (+348.1%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 158.7pts (+466.7%) from September to March
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 153.7pts (+512.3%) at 6-35 dslr
  • 6/30 (20%) for 143.6pts (+478.6%) from females
  • 7/25 (28%) for 158.6pts (+634.4%) here at Kempton
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 27.5pts (+130.8%) at odds of 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 20.63pts (+137.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.34pts (+45.3%) in cheekpieces
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.7pts (+67.1%) as LTO winners

...whilst from the above... A/W hcps at Kempton for less than £4k in Sept-March at 8/1 or shorter within 5 weeks of their last run = 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 22.4pts (+279.6% ROI)...

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Magic Mirror @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.20pm on Tuesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2019

Monday's Pick was...

2.25 Musselburgh : Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Close up, ridden and headway approaching last, stayed on towards finish, but beaten by 1.75 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £3509 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, if I'm honest, the datasets I'm using today aren't the biggest sample sizes I've given you, but I felt that this horse was overpriced, considering there must be some some doubts about the odds-on favourite's jumping after a heavy fall last time out as it remains to be seen if that will have affected him in any way.

Our boy, on the other hand, is rock solid and consistent if not exactly prolific and with 5 places from his last seven runs, I expect him to be there or thereabouts in the closing stages once more. He has a win and 2 places from 4 runs here at Ayr and was only beaten by half a length two starts ago when collared late on in a Class 2 contest, so this represents a major drop back down in quality.

As I said, he doesn't win often enough, but all three career wins have involved the combination of 2m-2m1.5f, Class 4/5, mud, Jan-March and no more than 4 weeks rest. All those are present today and when you combine those factors, his career record of 3 from 33 becomes 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 14.87pts (+371.9% ROI) with the loss being a third placed finish!

Today's jockey, Ross Chapman, is 2 from 3 of those four races above and he was 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 30.6pts (+95.6% ROI) over jumps here at Ayr last year, including 8/27 (29.6%) for 23.7pts in handicaps and 3/12 925%) for 4.22pts (+35.2%) over the larger obstacles.

Our trainer, Lisa Harrison, is 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 8.88pts (+32.9% ROI) here at Ayr over the last three years from which, her handicap chasers sent off shorter than 8/1 are 4/7 (57.1%) for 20.94pts (+299.1%) with all 7 being males racing after less than a month's rest, including winning 3 from 3 (100%) for 17.16pts (+571.9%) in January.

And as we've looked at horse, jockey and trainer, I might as well add a note about the sire, Scorpion, because his 5-8 yr old offspring are 11 from 40 (27.5% SR) for 28.4pts (+71% ROI) in handicap jumps races over 2m to 2m3f on soft ground or worse during the last three years. And as SotD just wouldn't be SotD without at least one statistical breakdown, those 40 Scorpion progeny are...

  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 35.6pts (+122.6%) after 6-45 days off the track
  • 3/12 (25%) for 16.08pts (+134%) over fences
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.87pts (+168.7%) competing for less than £4,000
  • 3/4 (75%) for 18.11pts (+452.9%) in January
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.03pts (+267.8%) at Class 5

...giving us a 1pt win be on Instingtive @ 9/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.10pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

3.35 Sandown : Monsieur Lecoq @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leader until 3rd, tracked leading pair, 2nd again after 3 out, led travelling well approaching next, came clear before last, won easily by 9 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.25 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 1m7½f on Good ground worth £4159 to the winner... 

Why?

This 4 yr old filly was third over this course and distance just 6 days ago and would certainly have fared better but for a mistake at the last. A better jumping display under the same jockey off the same mark today should be enough for her to at least be in the mix on the run-in.

Her trainer, Jim Goldie, is 11 from 69 (15.9% SR) for 21.07pts (+30.5% ROI) with sub-12/1 Musselburgh handicap hurdlers since 2008 and to ensure we're not relying on old data, we'll focus on those from 2013 onwards who are 7/40 (17.5% SR) for 18.63pts (+46.6% ROI).

And of those 40...

  • those who raced in the previous 45 days are 6/36 (16.6%) for 17.82pts (+49.5%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 3/12 (25%) for 13.16pts (+109.7%)
  • top 3 finish LTO in the previous 45 days = 3/11 (27.3%) for 14.16pts (+128.8%)
  • those ridden by Callum Bewley : 2/9 (22.2%) for 7.28pts (+80.9%)
  • Bewley + top 3 LTO = 2/3 (66.6%) for 13.28pts (+442.6%), with all three having raced in the previous 45 days.

Also, over the last two years, Jim Goldie's handicappers turned back out after just 4 to 10 days rest are 33/199 (16.6% SR) for 253.2pts (+127.2% ROI), from which...

  • 3-5 yr olds are 21/105 (20%) for 76pts (+72.3%)
  • Same OR as LTO : 16/101 (15.8%) for 209.3pts (+207.3%)
  • Same Class as LTO : 19/100 (19%) for 233.6pts (+233.6%)
  • Within o.5f of LTO trip : 18/98 (18.4%) for 110.2pts (+112.4%)
  • Females are 14/69 (20.3%) for 102.8pts (+148.9%)
  • Same jockey as LTO : 13/63 (20.6%) for 48.2pts (+76.6%)
  • Class 4 : 6/43 (14%) for 122.8pts (+285.5%)
  • at Musselburgh : 4/16 (25%) for 3.6pts (+14.4%)
  • and 3-5 yr old females at the same OR, class and distance as LTO are 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.44pts (+182.7%)

...giving us a 1pt win bet on Sarvi @ 7/2 BOG as was available from pretty much everywhere at 6.50pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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