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Stat of the Day, 25th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

2.05 Pontefract : Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (Made all, ridden and ran on, winning by 2.5 lengths easing down)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Laafy @ 3/1 BOG

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Eqtidaar Godolphin Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good ground worth £17,013 to the winner...

Why?...

Like yesterday, we'll start with the horse's suitability for today's conditions as highlighted in the Shortlist report, where green is good and grey is unproven/unknown...

And here's how the colours translate into numbers. From a Flat record of 4 wins from 11 starts (36.4% SR), this 4yr old gelding is...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f
  • 4/8 (50%) in fields of 10 runners or less
  • 3/7 (42.9%) wearing a visor
  • 3/6 (50%) when not the favourite
  • 2/5 (40%) over this 1m4f trip
  • 2/4 (50%) in August/September
  • 1/2 (50%) on Good ground
  • and also 1/2 (50%) in non-handicaps

Next we turn to the racecard itself...

...which shows a well-drawn, 4 yr old gelding in decent form and rated top on our Speed Ratings. His yard and jockey are both also in good nick as denoted by the 14 & 30 icons, whilst rider Ryan Moore has a good long term record at this venue C5 (full details of all those numbers can be seen by clicking the trainer or jockey form boxes).

What I want to focus on are the two subsequent reports relating to the trainer/jockey combo and the sire stats. So, in that same order, we can see that Messrs Stoute and Moore have been amongst the winners of late, but more long term in decent races, they have done very well with favoured horses, as in...

...from which, those 53 are...

  • 26/49 (53.1%) on the Flat
  • 21/36 (58.3%) were placed LTO
  • 13/23 (56.5%) from 4 yr olds
  • 11/21 (52.4%) won LTO
  • 10/18 (55.6%) at 1m4f
  • 10/16 (62.5%) in fields of 6 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) on Good ground
  • 6/10 (60%) in Listed contests
  • 6/8 (75%) stepping up a class
  • 4/6 (66.6%) in races worth £17k-£20k
  • and 3/3 (100%) with runners rated (OR) 95-105

And now to those Sire Staying numbers, where I want to focus on this angle...

...which has produced...

  • 7/20 (35%) from males & 6/14 (42.9%) on the Flat
  • 6/9 (66.6%) at odds shorter than 5/1 & 4/11 (36.4%) over a 1m4f trip
  • 4/10 (40%) from 4 yr olds & 4/6 (66.6%)  from horses rated (OR) 100-110
  • 3/6 (50%) in non-handicaps & 3/3 (100%) in races worth £13-25k
  • 2/5 (40%) in fields of 3-6 runners & 2/5 (40%) in September
  • 2/4 (50%) on Good ground & 2/3 (66.6%) at Class 1
  • 1/1 (100%) in Listed contests & 1/1 (100%) at Newmarket

...all of which led me to... a 1pt win bet on Laafy @ 3/1 BOG as was available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Newmarket TV Trends: Thurs 24th Sept 2020

This midweek the ITV racing cameras head to Newmarket racecourse to take in the three-day Cambridgeshire Meeting.

On Thursday, there are four LIVE ITV races, with the Group Three Tattersalls Stakes (3.00) the feature - a race that ALL of the last 10 winners have been drawn in stalls 2, 5 or 7!

We take a look at the LIVE races from a trends and stats angle - use these to find the best winning profiles of past winners.

 

Newmarket Free Racing Tips & Trends (Thurs 24th Sept)

 

1.50 – Bentley Motors Nursery Handicap Cl2 (2yo) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Foaled in Feb or later
9/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
9/10 – Won between 0-2 times before
9/10 – Never raced at the track before
8/10 – Carried 8-10 or more in weight
8/10 – Won over 6f or 7f before
8/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Foaled in March or later
6/10 – Rated between 80-85 (inc)
6/10 – Placed favourites
3/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
3/10 – Winners from stall 9
3/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
1/10 – Winning favourites
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.25 – British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

1 previous running
Trainer Andrew Balding won this race last season
Trainer Michael Dods is 2-from-4 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.00 – Tattersalls Stakes (Registered as the Somerville Tattersall Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV4

10/10 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 2 (3), 5 (4) or 7 (3)
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
9/10 – Foaled in Feb or later
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/10 – Irish trained
2/10 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
1/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

3.35 – Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 2m ITV4

9/10 – Placed favourites
9/10 – Had run in the last 5 weeks
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had run at the course before (3 won)
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
7/10 – Won 3 or more times
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
7/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Trained by John Gosden
3/10 – Ridden by William Buick
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Withhold (10/11 fav) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

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Stat of the Day, 24th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

6.30 Kempton : Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 15/8 (Prominent early, chased leaders, ridden over 2f out, no impression on winner inside final furlong, kept on) : not the result we wanted, but I was definitely right about the price offering value.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good/Good to Soft ground worth £7,470 to the winner...

Why?...

As tends to be the case, the Geegeez Report Suite and interactive racecard provide us with an absolute stack of data, so let's crack on.

Today, I'm going to start with one of the easiest ways into a race : The Shortlist, which looks like this...

...and gives an indication that our horse should be suited by conditions. It's an indication backed by the following about this horse's performance to date. His overall record stands at...


...and includes of note today...

  • 16/28 (57.1%) at 6/1 or shorter
  • 12/24 (50%) in races worth up to £8,000
  • 11/21 (52.4%) during July-October
  • 11/21 (52.4%) in fields of 5-8
  • 9/20 (45%) during 2018-20
  • 9/19 (47.4%) on Good/Good to Soft
  • 6/17 (35.3%) in handicaps
  • and 5/5 (100%) on Good to Soft

Our next port of call is the racecard itself...

And the Geegeez ratings...

Plenty to go at there, of course, so let's take it bit by bit. We've discussed the horse and the Geegeez Ratings are self-explanatory, so let's focus on the trainer/jockey and trainer/course details. The TJ30 record of 5 from 17 is excellent, but isn't a massive surprise if you get into the Geegeez Query Tool, where you can do the following...

...from which, the pair are...

  • 15/47 (31.9%) during June-September
  • 13/36 (36.1%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 11/33 (33.3%) with male runners
  • 9/22 (40.9%) in fields of 4-7 runners
  • 9/18 (50%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 8/28 (28.6%) on Good to Soft
  • 5/10 (50%) at Class 3
  • and 4/10 (40%) over a 1m2f trip

And finally for today, we'll look at Ralph Beckett's record here at Pontefract. Ralph only sends an average of 5 runners a year to this track and I can only assume it's the 400+ mile round trip that keeps him away, as the ones he sends here do very well, as once again the Geegeez Query Tool is our friend...

...including of note today...

  • 16/28 (57.1%) at 6/1 and shorter
  • 12/24 (50%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 11/21 (52.4%) during July-October
  • 11/21 (52.4%) in fields of 5-8 runners
  • 9/20 (45%) during 2018-20
  • 9/19 (47.4%) on Good/Good to Soft
  • 6/17 (35.3%) in handicaps
  • and 5 from 5 (100%) on Good to Soft

I've spent considerably more time on this today to try to highlight some aspects of the toolkit you might not currently be using as a type of precursor to next week's switch away to a Race of the Day feature, but hopefully you've found it both interesting to read...

...and a justifciation for... a 1pt win bet on Victory Chime @ 11/4 BOG as was still available at 9.00am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Newmarket TV Trends: Fri 25th Sept 2020

Another big day of LIVE ITV racing this Friday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four races, including the Group Two Rockfel and Joel Stakes.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the big-race trends for the LIVE races, plus our verdict on each contest – Enjoy!

 

Newmarket Free Racing Tips & Trends (Fri 25th Sept) 

 

1.50 – Tasleet British EBF Rosemary Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV4

9/9 – Had won over 1m before
9/9 – Had between 3-6 runs that season
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Won between 1-3 times before
7/9 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
7/9 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
6/9 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/9 – Placed horses from stall 3 (2 winners)
5/9 – Had run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/9 – Aged 3 years-old
3/9 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Trained by William Haggas
2/9 – Trained by John Gosden
2/9 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/9 – Winning favourites
Richard Hannon won the race in 2013
William Haggas won the race in 2014, 2017 & 2018
John Gosden won the race in 2015 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

2.25 – Princess Royal Muhaarar Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/15 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Had won over 1m2f or further in the past
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/15 – Aged 3 years-old
8/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
The horse from stall 12 has won 3 of the last 7 runnings
Trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 8 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

 

 

3.00 – Shadwell Rockfel Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

15/16 – Had won 1-2 times in the past
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time
14/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Won by a March or April born foal
8/16 – Won over 7f before
7/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 4 winners)
2/16 – Trained by trainer Mick Channon
2/16 – Won by the Hills yard
2/16 – Won by trainer Jim Bolger
2/16 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
1/16 – Winners from stalls 1 or 2
9 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

 

3.35 – Shadwell Joel Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

15/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/16 – Officially rated between 111-118
13/16 – Had won a Group race before
12/16 – Had won over 1m before
11/16 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Failed to win last time out
11/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won 4 or less times before
10/16 – Raced at either Doncaster, Haydock, Newmarket or Newbury last time out
10/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (4 won)
6/16 – Aged 4 years-old
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (including 2 of last 5 runnings)
3/16 – Won by Godolphin (Saeed Bin Suroor)
3/16 – Winners from stalls 2 or 3
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/16 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
Benbatl won this race in 2019
4 of the last 5 winners came from stalls 2 (2) or 6 (2)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

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Stat of the Day, 23rd September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

2.05 Beverley : Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Keen, chased leaders, pushed along 2f out, keeping on well 1f out, no more)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polyrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, when you're looking for a couple of winners to sign off a near 9-year stint, a 7/2 fav ridden by a 7lb claimer in a 14-runner contest might not be an obvious pick, but let me attempt to explain. The price still offers some value as I thought he'd be 3/1 or shorter, whilst the racecard tells us...

...that we've an in-form horse who tops our speed ratings and is to be ridden by an in-form jockey whose record improves when riding for today's trainer, who himself is adept at getting LTO winners to win again.

Thanks for reading, I'm back again tomorrow.

Only joking, let's add a little to those bare stats above, shall we?

The horse is a 6 yr old gelding with two wins and two runner-up finishes in his last six outings, including a win LTO off today's mark under today's jockey in the same size of field he faces today that took his record to 3 from 10 (30% SR) in Class 6 handicaps.

And onto the TJ Combo.

The 6 from 27 shown above on the racecard over the last year is part of the following record (taken from the Geegeez Query Tool) since February 2019...

...that also includes a whole stack of angles that are relevant today, such as...

  • 8 from 38 (21.1%) in handicaps & 8/25 (32%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 7/32 (21.9%) with Rhys claiming 7lbs & 7/24 (29.2%) at 11-30dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) after a top 4 finish LTO & 6/21 (28.6%) in 3yo+ races
  • 6/10 (60%) at 6/1 and shorter & 5/21 (23.8%) in 2020
  • 5/21 (23.8%) in fields of 11-14 runners & 4/17 (23.5%) on the A/W
  • 4/11 (36.4%) over 7.5f-1m & 4/11 (36.4%) made the frame LTO
  • 4/7 (57.1%) in September & 2/4 (50%) won LTO

And now we'll close with a look at the LTO Winner Snippet where an overall 2 year record of...

is very good, but longer term and more specifically to today's race, I've found that in A/W handicaps at odds of 2/1 to 9/1 since 2014, Gary Moore's LTO winners are 20 from 73 (27.4% SR) for 19.3pts (+26.5% ROI) profit, including the following baker's dozen of relevant angles at play today...

  • 18/66 (27.3%) on Polytrack & 17/57 (29.8%) in sub-£4k races
  • 12/38 (31.6%) at 6-25 dslr & 9/29 (31%) here at Kempton
  • 7/26 (26.9%) at Class 6 & 7/21 (33.3%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 7/16 (43.75%) over a mile & 6/14 (42.9%) during August/September
  • 5/13 (38.5%) with 6 yr olds & 5/10 (50%) with a jockey claiming 7lbs
  • 4/12 (33.3%) on Std to Slow & 4/11 (36.4%) in 2019/20 & 4/8 (50%) in September...

...all pointing us towards... a 1pt win bet on Pioneering @ 7/2 BOG (or bigger in places!) as was available at 8.25am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.45 Warwick : Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Prominent, disputed lead after 3rd, pushed along before 3 out, lost position well before next, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Beverley :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7½f on Good To Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

Much of my "work" has already been done for me on the racecard, but I'll add a little meat to the bones of the following too...

Mindful of not trying to teach you how to suck eggs (there are videos out there for that!), I'll quickly whizz through the above that tells us we've a consistent/in-form runner from an in-form yard who do well when today's jockey is on board and have also been very adept at getting winners to "double up".

So, what can I add?

Well, the recent 121 form for this 5 yr old gelding has all come in the last six weeks since the first-time adoption of cheekpieces and they are retained today (cp4 on the card). One of those wins was on good to firm ground, so the surface shouldn't be an issue. He has no run at today's trip, but is 5 from 21 at 7f and has won over a mile in the past, he's 5 from 13 in fields of 8-10 runners and has one win and one place with Paul Mulrennan on his back.

So that's the horse's suitability assessed, next to the trainer form. The card clearly tells us that David Brown's horses are 3 from 9 in the last fortnight and all I'm going to add to that is to say that in handicaps they are 3 from 7.

The trainer jockey 1-year record is good at 8 from 30 and with this race in mind, it's handy (IMO) to know that those 30 runs include...

  • 8 from 24 from males
  • 7 from 19 at odds of evens to 15/2
  • 7 from 19 in fields of 10 runners or fewer
  • 5 from 19 in handicaps
  • 5 from 18 after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 5 from 14 made the frame LTO
  • 4 from 6 from 5 yr olds
  • and 2 from 6 from LTO winners...

...and we know (via the racecard) the yard has done well over the last couple of years with LTO winners with 7 of 21 going on to win again. This isn't just a recent thing, as closer inspection of trainer David Brown's runners show that over the last five (inc this one) Flat seasons, his Class 3-6 handicappers who won last time out are 9 from 28 (32.1% SR) for profits of 33.9pts (+121% ROI) at Industry SP backed blindly, including 5 winners from the last 9.

Imposing an Evens to 7/1 odds range on those runners shows five winners from the last six...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Harbour Vision @ 9/2 BOG as was available at 8.20am Wednesday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 21st September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

5.20 Newton Abbot : Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, driven along in 3rd after 4 out, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.45 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m on Good ground worth £2,794 to the winner...  

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which tells us that we've a 5 yr old rated a narrow second on the neural ratings we licence from Dr Peter May and who is trained by one of a number of handlers that I keep an eye out for in Class 4/5 hurdles.

That trainer is Alistair Ralph and I'll now try to show you why I'm interested in his Class 4/5 hurdlers. If we go back to the start of 2017, Alistair's record shows...

... a strike marginally better than 1 in 8, almost 1 in 3 making the frame and just about profitable. These aren't bad figures to be fair, a trainer making profit (albeit very small) from blind backing at Industry SP is always a good starting point, but I don't want to have backed all 365 runners over the last 45 months, just to make 3pts profit, so what do I want?

Well, as my angle above says, I want to back his class 4/5 hurdlers, because over the same time frame, they are...

...which moves the 1 in 8 strike rate closer to 1 in 6, generates a good (30%+) ROI at ISP and if you can get an A/E of over 1.25 allied to an IV of over 1.50 from a set of data with more than 150 qualifiers, then you're on the way to profitability. Obviously they don't all win, but you're much better off with these 175 runners than playing with all 365.

With today's race in mind, it's also worth noting that these 175 are...

  • 22/114 (19.3%) for 59.8pts (+52.5%) after 1-6 weeks rest
  • 20/66 (30.3%) for 17.7pts (+26.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 16/87 (18.4%) for 32.1pts (+36.9%) on good ground
  • 16/84 (19.1%) for 47.7pts (+56.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 31.0pts (+32.6%) in handicaps
  • 12/73 (16.4%) for 24.9pts (+34.1%) at trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 7/45 (15.6%) for 37.1pts (+82.4%) at Class 5
  • 7/25 (28%) for 31.1pts (+124.4%) off marks (OR) of 100-105
  • 4/16 (25%) for 13.0pts (+81.25%) during September/October

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kabrit @ 10/3 BOG as was available at 8.20am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 19th September 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.45 Ayr : Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Prominent, ridden to challenge over 1f out, ran on well final furlong but beaten by half a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £3,165 to the winner... 

Why?...

Having lost out narrowly on successive days up at Ayr, I was sorely tempted to try again with Thursday's pick being turned back out again, but this 8yr old gelding then caught my eye, so it's chasing in Devon instead.

Our boy's overall career record of 2 from 26 isn't the most inspiring, but he has finished 151 in the three contests where he has worn a visor in a field of 8-1 runners at a trip beyond three miles. These include 2 from 2 in September/October, 1 from 2 under today's jockey David Noonan and 1 from 1 here at Newton Abbot, acquired in a course and distance success here last time out, eleven days ago.

That C&D win was what piqued my interest, because I remembered that Newton Abbot is one of a handful of courses where I look out for LTO C&D winners as since the start of 2017, such runners are 15 from 47 (31.9% SR) for 9.3pts (+19.8% ROI) profit at this venue and these include of relevance today...

  • 14/38 (36.8%) for 15.9pts (+41.9%) from males
  • 12/33 (36.4%) for 18.8pts (+57%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 8/14 (57.1%) for 11.6pts (+82.9%) at 6-15 dslr
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 2.95pts (+15.5%) over fences
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 2.93pts (+48.8%) over this 3m2f course and distance

...whilst males + 5-9 runners + 6-15 dslr = 6/8 (75% SR) for 13.56pts (+169.5% ROI) inc 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.62pts (+192.4%) over fences and 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 1.41pts (+47.1%) over this 3m2f trip : all over fences.

I could stop there, but I just couldn't put up a son of Midnight Legend with out referring to (as many long-standing readers will know!) one of my all-time favourite NH sires, who sadly is no longer with us, but his offspring continue to win races. I have a plethora of angles relating to Midnight Legend progeny, so here's one for today's contest...

...in hcp chases over 3m1.5f to 3m2f since the start of 2017, they are 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 20.63pts (+29.5% ROI), from which they are...

  • 14/37 (37.8%) for 39pts (+105.3%) at the age of 8 or 9
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 15pts (+29.4%) from males
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 25.3pts (+97.4%) with 8/9 yr old males
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 2.5pts (+19%) here at Newton Abbot
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 5.5pts (+68.7%) from males here at N.A.
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.7pts (+94.8%) from 8/9 yo here at N.A.
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.7pts (+142.9%) from 8/9 yo males here at Newton Abbot

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Magic @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.35am Saturday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Nine Runners To Consider In Saturday’s Big Sprints At Ayr

The two big handicaps on Saturday both take place at Ayr over 6f within 70 minutes of each other. With a total of 50 horses set to go to post across both the Ayr Gold Cup and Ayr Silver Cup picking winners, or even places, is not going to be easy.

I’ll be providing a shortlist of horses that have strong or hot form and are worth consideration for both races. In races like this there are always plenty of runners that have been laid out for the race so recent form isn’t necessarily the be all and end all but hopefully we’ll see some of these run well.

Ayr 6f Draw and Pace

A lot is always made of the draw in these cavalry charges but can we rule any runners out, or give extra consideration to others, based solely on the draw?

Looking at 16+ runner handicaps run at Ayr since 2009 on ground ranging from soft all the way up to good to firm, low draws have comfortably held the edge across all metrics.

The data offers some conflicting figures about whether middle is preferred to high or vice versa. It seems if you are drawn high, a particular area of the high draws and a certain run style is of great advantage.

High drawn front runners do particularly well. In fact in terms of PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) the most efficient and effective combination is high draw and speed. Prominent racers seem to have the same chance wherever they are drawn and then the more a horse is held up, the more it is an advantage to be drawn low.

It’s worth noting that all horses drawn in the top third of the draw contribute to the high drawn data. However if we look at individual draw data we see some quite revealing stats.

The above shows that as far as PRB is concerned, the two highest stalls are way out ahead, albeit with limited data, whilst the remaining high stalls are all amongst the worst for PRB. So it seems a very high draw is fine, or even advantageous, whereas a middle to high draw can be a big disadvantage.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Looking at these races run on just good to soft ground gives us less data but hopefully a further insight into how the bias will be this weekend.

No wins for the middle stalls looks a bit misleading here as the place percentages and PRB both confirm a middle draw can be slightly preferable to a low draw.

The PRB heat map on good to soft ground once again shows that if you are drawn high you almost certainly need to be on the pace. If you are drawn low then it is potentially more of an advantage to be held up. The runners will probably split into two groups and the far side group will almost certainly be bigger so it stands to reason that those held up from a low draw get a decent pace to aim at and are therefore slightly advantaged.

If I had the pick of the draw and didn’t have an out and out front runner I’d probably choose a draw somewhere between 7 and 14. Horses can run well from low, middle and high stalls here though and a ‘better’ draw should only be seen as an advantage of perhaps a few lbs rather than a guarantee of victory.

Ayr Silver Cup – 2.30pm

King’s Lynn

It’s easy to see why he’s been installed as the 4/1 favourite here. He won a Doncaster sales race last year as a 2yo beating Repartee and Toro Strike (both since rated in triple figures).

Of more relevance is his form this season. He’s had just the one start, a month ago, in a novice event. He was defeated by 2.5 lengths when sent off odds on which on the face of it is disappointing. However the winner of the race has since won at listed level and is now rated 111 so for King’s Lynn to get within 2.5 lengths, in receipt of 2lb but conceding race fitness reads well for a horse now running in a handicap off 94. Full Authority was 4.5 lengths behind King’s Lynn in that race, also giving the Andrew Balding runner 2lbs, and he has gone close in two handicaps since off 87 which again suggests King’s Lynn’s effort was worthy of a mark north of 94.

His draw in stall 6 looks near perfect and even if just reproducing his last run he should go close. Add in some improvement for that first run of the season and the fact he’s still had just three starts and he’s tempting, even at prohibitive odds.

Rathbone

At around 12/1 he looks a solid each way bet based on his form at this distance this season. In June he finished 3rd to Glen Shiel and Tabdeed at Newcastle and both those runners have gone on to win Group 3 races recently. Back in 4th was Treacherous who won his next two starts in handicap company. Remarkably he gets to run off the same mark of 90 here despite also finishing runner up at Ascot last time out, beaten just a head.

He’s drawn in stall 22 and is often held up so that does look a big negative based on past draw data. Maybe the Bronze Cup will show this to not be the negative the data suggests.

Aplomb

This runner tends to be overbet but an inconsistent, disappointing season means he is finally becoming a working man’s price (as big as 18/1 at the time of writing). For his entire career he has looked in need of 6f and cut in the ground. Last year when he got those conditions his form was 21120, the last run was a very rare poor run at the end of a long season. He’d probably had enough at that point.

This season started off promisingly. He was a running on 5th over an inadequate 5f on fast ground on seasonal debut (1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th all at least runner up since). He’s now 3lb lower. Off the back of that run he was sent off near favourite for the Silver Wokingham but he found drying ground against him and ran a respectable 7th. All runs since have come at less than 6f.

The bad news is he is 5lbs wrong here compared to his current, falling mark. He is still well handicapped on old form though and under optimum conditions from stall 10 he could outrun his odds.

Magical Spirit

It’s surprising to see this horse available at 28/1 for this. He does have a bit of an in and out profile but he has run well in both turf starts this season and seemed to benefit from a wind op last time out when a running on 4th at Haydock in deep ground. The 3rd that day, Danzeno, went close to winning the Portland Handicap on his next start and Magical Spirit was only half a length behind Danzeno on this occasion. He’s won at 6f before and the return to this trip should suit.

Show Me Show Me

The biggest question mark for this one, and probably the only reason he’s available at 33/1, is the trip. He should be well handicapped here based on his Royal Ascot 8th in which the 1st, 2nd and 7th have all won since and many others have run well in defeat. He’s now 7lbs lower despite running okay and being better than the bare form on his last two starts.

This is a step back up to 6f, which he hasn’t convinced at yet in three starts. However two of those came as a 2yo and the one run at this distance as a 3yo came in a Group 3 for which he was sent off 28/1 and at that time Richard Fahey’s runners were mostly needing, or improving for their first runs of the season. He has often been outpaced at the half way point over 5f so there is hope he can stay this fair and from stall 4 he should run well if staying.

Ayr Gold Cup – 3.40pm

Staxton

Last two wins have come at Ripon, where he tends to do well, and both races have worked out nicely. The first of those victories saw him beat a dual subsequent winner whilst the 4th has finished runner up on both starts since and the 5th has won since. Five winners have emerged from his latest win including the 3rd and the 4th. He’s another 6lbs higher and hasn’t performed brilliantly here for the past two years but he’s better handicapped than the last two attempts and he does hold Mr Lupton (favourite at the time of writing) on the bare form of their recent meeting too and has a decent draw in the middle.

Mr Lupton

He was 3rd to Staxton on his penultimate start in that aforementioned warm race and went two places better to win a big field Curragh sprint next time out. Mr Lupton is 1lb better off with Staxton for a 0.75 length loss and now has the 5lb claim of Billy Garritty so has claims of reversing placings over this different course. Stall 11 looks pretty much perfect for him.

Barbill

A winner on his seasonal debut in a race that couldn’t be much hotter. The 2nd was runner up in the Stewards’ Cup on his next run at the distance, the 3rd and 4th have both won twice since and the 5th has also won since.

He’s now 10lbs higher, which makes life a lot more difficult but the 3rd is now rated a stone higher and the 4th won easily last week off a 6lb higher mark so it’s not beyond him, especially as he was a running on 6th in the Portland Handicap a week ago after being badly hampered at the start of the race.

From stall 12 he appears to have an excellent chance here.

Bungee Jump

This runner has almost certainly lost his form based on his last two runs but it’s interesting that this front runner is drawn in the second highest stall here – an angle that has done well in the past. On his seasonal debut he beat subsequent winners into 2nd and 3rd and he held his form well for his next two starts. He’s gone up 8lbs in the ratings this season but if he returns to form and if front running on the near side rail is an advantage (neither are guaranteed) he’d surely have as much chance as anything so 50/1 perhaps underestimates him, for all he is a very risky proposition.

Final Thoughts

Two very difficult races but if given two selections in each race I'd go for King's Lynn and Magical Spirit in the Silver Cup and then Barbill and Mr Lupton in the Gold Cup. The best bet between the two races is potentially Barbill each way at 25/1 (price correct as of Friday afternoon) given pretty much everything appears to be in his favour here.

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 19th Sept 2020

It’s Ayr Gold Cup day at the Scottish venue this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are also heading to Newbury for their Dubai Duty Free Day – We’ve 8 LIVE races in total and we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends for each race, plus our verdict.

AYR Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.55 – Jordan Electrics Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV


9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Yet to race at Ayr
8/9 – Won over 1m2f or more
8/9 – Winners from stalls 8 or lower
8/9 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Aged 4 or older
7/9 – Won 3 or more times before
6/9 – Irish bred
6/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/9 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

 

2.30 – QTS Ayr Silver Cup (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

17/17 – Carried 8-11 or more
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Previous winners over 6f
14/17 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/17 – Had raced at Ayr before (5 won)
13/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/17 - Had either 2 or 3 career wins to their name
10/17 – Finished 5th or better last time out
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – The first 4 home all returned a double-figure price
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
3/17 – Drawn in stalls 8 to 20 (inc) i.e horses drawn either high or low have done best
3/17 – Winning Favourites
0/17 – Filly or mare winners
Golden Apollo (12/1) won the race in 2019
Snazzy Jazzy (11/1) won the race in 2018
Tatlisu won the race in 2015
Huntsmans Close won the race in 2014

 

3.05 – Scotty Brand Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (for The Ayrshire Agricultural Challenge Cup) Cl1 6f ITV4

15/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/17 – Had never raced at Ayr before
14/17 – Previous winners over 6f
13/17 – Had won once or two times before
13/17 – Winning distance 1 length or further
13/17 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/17 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
12/17 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
10/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/17 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/17 – Winning favourites

 

3.40 – QTS Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

19/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/19 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
14/19 – Had won over 6f before
14/19 – Failed to win their last race
13/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/19 – Rated 90-101
12/19 – Carried 9-1 or more
12/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/19 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/19 – Had 7 or more runs that season
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Winning distance 1 length or less
9/19 – Had raced at Ayr before
9/19 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
4/19 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/19 – Winning favourites (3 winning favs since 1980)
0/19 – Filly or mare winners
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 8 or higher (4 of the last 15 winners came from stall 8)
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 15/1
Note: The 2018 renewal was a dead-heat

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

 

1.40 - Dubai International Airport World Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 5f34y ITV4

17/18 – Raced four or more times that season
16/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
15/18 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/18 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
15/18 – Won a Listed or Group race before
14/18 – Won over 5f previously
13/18 - Aged 5 or younger
13/18 – Won 4 or more times
12/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
8/18 – Previous Group race winners
6/18 – Ran at the Curragh last time out (inc 3 of last 7 winners)
6/18 – Won their last race
6/18 – Favourites
5/18 – Mare winners
Maid In India (12/1) won the race in 2019
Mr Lupton (11/4 fav) won the race in 2018

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m2f ITV

10/10 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Won over 1m2f or further before
9/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/10 – Won 3 or 4 times
8/10 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Drawn 8 or lower
6/10 – Rated between 92 and 96 (inc)
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Winners from stalls 1 (2) or 13 (2)
4/10 – Had run at Newbury before
4/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

2.50 –Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m3f5y ITV4

18/18 – Won over 1m2f (or further) previously
17/18 – Priced 9/1 or less
14/18 – Aged 5 or younger
14/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Had won at Listed or better class previously
13/18 – Had 4 or more career wins
11/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Raced at Newbury before
9/18 – Had won a Group race before
8/18 – Raced 5 or more times that season
7/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Favourites that won
4/18 – Trained by David Simcock (including 4 of last 5 runnings)
3/18 – Raced at York last time
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Desert Encounter (9/4) won the race in 2019 and 2017

 

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f8y ITV4

14/18 – Won from draw 5 or lower
14/18 – Raced 3 or more times
15/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
13/18 – Won over 6f previously
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Foaled in March or later
10/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/18 – Favourites (or joint) to win
8/18 – Won exactly two races before
7/18 – Won by an April foal
5/18 – Raced at Doncaster last time out
5/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Ran in the Gimcrack last time out (York)
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by Karl Burke
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
0/18 – Filly winners

Stat of the Day, 18th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.00 Ayr : Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (In rear of midfield, ridden towards centre of track 2f out, headway over 1f out, kept on final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG

...in the 12-runner, Listed, Harry Rosebery Stakes for 2yo over 5f on Good To Soft ground worth £16,517 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, once again, the racecard holds the key here...

...whilst the place setting on Instant Expert shows...

...and the pace/draw heat map set at 10-12 runners...

All of which is (a) self explanatory and (b) more than enough to hang a bet on, but I do just want to expand slightly on the Trainer/Jockey/Course 5 year record to show we're not leaning on old data, as of the 20 from 95 record shown on the racecard angle, the last three (inc this one so maybe 2.5?) seasons currently stand at ...

...from which...

  • 10/36 (37.8%) for 42.3pts (+117.4%) from male runners
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 39.8pts (+137.1%) on Good/Soft ground
  • 7/20 (35%) for 39.3pts (+196.5%) at 6-15 dslr
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.0pts (+205.3%) in fields of 10-14 runners
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 35.8pts (+137.5%) from those unplaced LTO
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 26.5pts (+240.9%) at the Scottish Gold Cup meeting
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 15.5pts (+172.2%) on Soft ground...

...whilst males racing in fields of 10-14 on Good/Soft at 6-15 dslr are 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 39.0pts (+780% ROI) including 3/4 (75%) for 36.5pts (+912.5%) from those who failed to make the frame LTO...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Nomadic Empire @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

PS - all P/L data in this piece is taken at Industry SP and therefore can be bettered for those of you with access to BOG accounts.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 17th September 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.50 Yarmouth : Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG WON at 4/1 (Prominent, ridden to lead entering final furlong, ran on to win by 3/4 length)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Soft ground worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

As is most often the case, the racecard is our entry point...

...telling us we have a track specialist, ridden by an in-form jockey, Danny Tudhope, who also has a good record at this venue over a sustained period of time. The second pointer from the card is Geegeez Speed Rating of 94, which is the best in this field today, as seen below...

To assess the Horse for Courses report's relevance properly, I want to compare the horse's excellent overall record of...

...with how this 5 yr old gelding has fared over today's course and distance, and of his 6 from 17 record here at Ayr, when racing over this 10 furlong trip, he is an impressive...

from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 37.75pts (+314.6%) in 3yo+ contests
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 41.75pts (+521.9%) at 8-16 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.75pts (+88.6%) in handicaps
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 14.75pts (+245.8%) at 5/2 to 15/2
  • 2/5 (40%) for 6.00pts (+120%) stepping up a class
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.00pts (+266.7%) in 2020

...whilst when sent of at 5/2 to 15/2 in 3yo+ handicaps over this track and trip at 8-16 since he last ran, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 15.75pts (+315% ROI), including...

  • 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.00pts (+450%) stepping up a class
  • 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.00pts (+450%) in 2020
  • and 1 from 1 (100%) for 4.00pts (+400%) stepping up a class in 2020...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Glasses Up @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.30am Thursday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

6.40 Kempton : Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 4/1 (Led over 1f, soon steadied in 3rd, pushed along over 2f out, went 2nd again entering final furlong, soon every chance, no extra and well held when edged left final 100 yards)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

As ever the Geegeez racecard and report suite provide a stack of information, starting with the card itself...

...and then our ratings...

...before heading over to check the Shortlist (win)...

... and the Shortlist (place)...

...which lead us back to the card and the Instant Expert tab set to win...

...and then its place variant...

All of which combine to form a fairly compelling case for a horse suited by conditions, hailing from an in-form yard that has done well here at Yarmouth in the past. I don't want to add too much to the above for fear of information overload, but to just add a little meat to those bones, I'd say...

...that the horse has won 2 of 11 starts, but both wins have come from just two attempts in 8-10 runner handicaps over 7f/1m of a mark in the 70's this year, within 2 to 5 weeks of his last run, all of which are in situ today.

I'd also like to briefly touch on trainer William Stone's record here at Yarmouth highlighted by the C1 and C5 icons. I won't go into the actual 1yr and 5yr data with you, because you can click the trainer icon on the card to see those instantly, but what I do want to show you is a quick direct comparison between William's overall record of...

...which isn't much to shout about if we're honest, but since the start of 2019, his 2-5 yr olds in 8-11 runner handicaps during June-October here at Yarmouth have finished 411112 with the latest qualifier only beaten by a nose here 17 days ago. Stat-wise, those six runners are...

...and I think that's where I'll leave this for today...

...leaving us with... a 1pt win bet on Dashing Roger @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 7.40am Wednesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2020

Monday's pick was...

6.20 Wolverhampton : Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG (6.375/1 after a 15p R4) WON at 7/1 (Tracked leader, pushed along 2f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, all out to win by a nose) - nice to get the right side of a tight finish for a change 😉

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

We start with the racecard, as is often the case...

...which tells us that our 4 yr old is well clear on the Geegeez ratings and was a runner-up last time out 11 days ago. he was a little unlucky to be caught very late on and beaten by a neck at this class, course and distance by a Kempton specialist dropping in class. 3lb claimer Finley Marsh retains the ride today and will seek to improve upon a decent 4 wins and 3 places from 9 starts on this horse on the A/W to date.

As you can see above, Finley has 2 wins and 3 other places from 10 for trainer Richard Hughes at this venue, whilst the bigger picture for the trainer/jockey combo is that in all A/W handicaps since the start of 2017, they are...

and they include the following ten angles of relevance today...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 36.8pts (+68.1%) in fields of 6-11 runners
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 54.6pts (+84%) from male runners
  • 15/55 (27.3%) for 61.8pts (+112.4%) at Class 5/6
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 57.9pts (+109.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 13/49 (26.5%) for 35.4pts (+72.3%) when Finley has claimed 3lbs
  • 10/29 (34.5%) for 12.3pts (+42.6%) on horses placed LTO
  • 9/45 (20%) for 35.1pts (+77.9%) on Polytrack
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 54.5pts (+194.6%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 58.1pts (+341.8%) in August/September
  • and 5 from 13 (38.5%) for 11.1pts (+85.4%) in 2020 so far...

...whilst when Finley has claimed 3lbs on a Richard Hughes-trained male A/W handicapper in a 6-11 runner, Class 5/6 contest worth less than £5200, they are...

..including 5 winners from 6 (83.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+235.1% ROI) with horses who made the frame last time out.

As for Richard Hughes' record with stayers, a closer inspection of his overall numbers reveals that since the start of 2018, his handicappers racing over 1m3.5f to 2m0.5f sent off at evens to 10/1 are...

...and these include...

  • 16/67 (23.9%) for 44.5pts (+66.5%) in fields of 5-13 runners
  • 16/59 (27.1%) for 52.5pts (+89.1%) from those beaten LTO
  • 11/45 (24.4%) for 40.1pts (+89.2%) over 1m3.5f-1m4f
  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 27.5pts (+76.4%) on the A/W
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 13pts (+38.1%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/25 (24%) for 8pts (+32%) on Polytrack
  • 6/24 (25%) for 28pts (+116.7%) in 3yo+ handicaps
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 19.3pts (+128.7%) during September/October
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+98.8%) at Class 5
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.9pts (+76%) for Finley Marsh
  • and 3 from 12 (25%) for 7.8pts (+65.2%) in 2020 so far

...steering us towards... a 1pt win bet on Charlie Arthur @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday (bigger in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.35 Musselburgh : Amazing Alba @ 3/1 BOG 8th at 3/1 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, not clear run over 1f out, soon no impression)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which shows a 6yr old former course and distance winner dropping in class today, set to be ridden by a 5lb claimer. He's also in the top three of our own ratings and his trainer is one of my group to look out for here at Wolverhampton.

Closer analysis of those facts show that this runner has won five times at this track and is now 3lbs better off than his last win here back in January, whilst all five course wins have come under the following broad criteria that are in place today...2018-20 / handicaps / 7f-8.5f / OR of 54-74 and sent off in the 3/1 to 14/1 range. When those have combined, he is...

Jockey Ray Dawson might be a 5lb claimer, but with over 540 rides under his belt, he's no stranger to the saddle and has been in good nick of late winning 9 of 54 (16.7% SR) over the past month returning Betfair SP profits of 41.15pts at an ROI of some 76.2% and since 2018 in Wolverhampton handicaps over 6f to 1m4f at odds of 14/1 and shorter, he is...

And finally to trainer David Loughnane's record here at Wolverhampton. He's actually one of a dozen trainers I keep an eye out for at this venue and in David's case, the runners that interest me the most are those handicappers sent off at odds of 3/1 and bigger over trips of 7f to 1m4f, because since the start of 2018, they are...

...with a near 1 in 6 strike rate generating profits beyond 76p in the pound, including of note today...

  • 18/95 (19%) for 86.3pts (+90.8%) at odds of 5/1 to 16/1
  • 16/102 (15.7%) for 104.2pts (+102.2%) were unplaced LTO
  • 14/78 (18%) for 70.7pts (+90.6%) during August to December
  • 7/39 (18%) for 30.7pts (+78.6%) over this course and distance
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 78.3pts (+279.7%) with a jockey claiming 5/7 lbs

...whilst horses unplaced LTO sent off at 5/1 to 16/1 during August to December are 11/38 (29% SR) for 81.9pts (+215.6% ROI) with 5lb claimers riding 3 winners from 8 (37.5%) for 25.1pts (+314.3%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Critical Thinking @ 15/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday (up to 9/1 in places!), but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!