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Race of the Day – 19 December 2017

Race of the Day - 14:50 Catterick

The Shortlist is the report that is available to all registered users on a Tuesday, and it is excellent for highlighting horses that are well suited to the conditions they will be facing that day.

Discoverie makes The Shortlist when on the 'Place' setting today with a score of 11, having three sections of green and two of amber. He is a big price at a current 20/1, so is one I am going to take a closer look at.

When looking at the form of Discoverie on the racecard we can see that he has been racing over hurdles for the four races, but reverts to fences here today in a race in which he won last year from just three pounds lower in the handicap. His chase record is much better than his hurdle form and with Colm McCormack aim to claim three pounds in this one, he is effectively racing from the same weight as last year.

Kenneth Slack has a good long-term record here at Catterick. Over the past five years, he's had ten winners (26.32%) and 22 places (57.89%) from 38 runners, for level stakes profits of 10.36 and 13.29 and an Impact Value of 2.30.

He has a fantastic strike rate with his chasers and a similarly good record with his runners over the shorter national hunt distances, both having Impact Values of close to 3.

Colm McCormack has been riding well recently and has managed a couple of winners from nine rides over the past month, which has yielded a level stakes profit of 29.00.

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The Instant Expert report highlights the good showing of Discoverie, and also shows that he is about the best suited in this field to today's conditions. He is just the three pounds higher than for his last win (as mentioned earlier) and quite a few of the rest of the field is higher than that for their last wins.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have easily the best record, with 24.29% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 16.78 and an Impact Value of 1.78.

Halcyon Days and Maxed Out King have the highest pace scores and look the most likely leaders based on the last four races of each horse. However, in this race last year, Discoverie led early on and it will be interesting to see if McCormack will try and employ the same tactics this time around.

Click here for the 14:50 at Catterick.

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Stat of the Day, 19th December 2017

Monday's Result :

4.40 Wolverhampton : Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG WON at 5/2 Steadied and switched left start, soon close up, switched right entering final 2f, ridden to lead approaching final furlong, edged left and ridden out inside final furlong

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mach One @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 5, 3yo+ Handicap over 1m on Fibresand worth £2,911 to the winner...

More on this later, as usual...

...but until then, it's... a 1pt win bet on Mach One @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.30pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th December

PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 14 (Lisp)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Fixe Le Cap) & 3 (Not Another Muddle)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Sam Brown), 1 (Delire D’Estruval) & 3 (New To This Town)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (City Supreme), 4 (Leith Hill Lad) & 5 (Talk Of The South)

Leg 5 (2.25): 7 (Café Au Lait) & 2 (Le Capriceux)

Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Stoical Patient), 6 (Finnegan’s Garden) & 4 (Easter In Paris)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Gary Moore has secured three of the four renewals to date, having saddled the silver medallist in the race that eluded the stable.  Penalised runners have won three of the four contests thus far whereby Gary Moore’s KNOCKNANUSS has been well placed by the trainer who seemingly only has LISP to worry about.  Layers are offering ‘14/1 bar the two’ at the time of writing and from a Placepot perspective, there seems to be little reason why I should waste any more time on the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though the one favourite of the trio that did not actually win its respected event was sent off as a beaten 1/4 chance twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Knocknanuss (good to firm)

 

12.50: Nicky Henderson saddled the beaten 1/4 favourite in the opening event last year whereby punters might take that stat as a sobering thought before wading into Nicky’s only runner on the card today, namely FIXE LE CAP.  That said, connections will probably take the view that any problem here is likely to be in front of the Kapgarde gelding (relating to the fences) rather than a realistic threat from his three rivals, albeit NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE is certainly a horse with ability.  With only five races under his belt as a six-year-old, Gary Moore’s soft ground Fontwell winner has not been the easiest horse to handle, though I can’t see either of the other pair really troubling the afore mentioned contenders, though SILVERHOW will surely claim the bronze medal if the race pans out as suggested.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.

 

1.20: Five-year-olds have won half (6/12) of the recent contests, with SAM BROWN looking to extend the good run of vintage representatives in this novice hurdle event.  Anthony Honeyball has his runners in fine fettle just now, producing stats of 12/52 since the end of October, figures which have realised five points of level stake profit.  Unfortunately for connections, Ben Pauling (DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL) and Colin Tizzard (NEW TO THIS TOWN) are also in fine form and this trio look set to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a seven timer, whilst nine of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Mickieblueeyes (heavy)

 

1.50: Horses carrying 11-6 or more come into the gig having won the last four renewals and six of the last eight contests.  CIIY SUPREME and LEITH HILL LAD (listed in order of preference) represent some each way value from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, whilst TALK OF THE SOUTH is added into the Placepot equation.  The lads/lasses in the trade press office were fanciful in suggesting that BEARS RAILS would start at 3/1 but then again, the current 15/8 quote does not offer any value and somewhere down the line, I have to speculate that there is a race on the card that could produce the spark to ignite the Placepot flame.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the last decade, nine of the ten winners scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst the other gold medallist could hardly be classed as a no-hoper having previaled at 12/1.  That said, only two of the last six market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—City Supreme (heavy)

1/5—Talk Of The South (soft)

2/11—Frank N Fair (good & good to soft)

 

2.25: Results were against the punters until the last three favourites obliged and potential investors must have wished that the 9/4 suggestion in the trade press about CAFE AU LAIT was a realistic quote.  The best price on offer at the time of writing is 5/6 and it’s doubtful if the market leader is going into odds against territory given the lack of strength relating to his rivals.  Only in June and September this year has Dan Shelton failed to notch double figure win totals and even then, the trainer boasted a 17% strike rate which many handlers would be happy to achieve on a long term basis.  The writing was on the wall in the 2013/14 season when Dan secured 73 winners which nearly trebled the tally from the previous term.  Now needing just one gold medallist to match last year’s total of 118, I’m not sure just how much people really appreciate this meteoric rise in such a short career.   The two youngest (six-year-old) rivals might chase CAFÉ AU LAIT home on this occasion, namely LE CAPRICEUX and BLUE APRIL.

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Favourite factor: Nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 17/2.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Thundering Home (good to soft)

2/12—Kastani Beach (good & heavy)

 

3.00: Two defectors have potentially put this event into ‘win only’ territory which could make all the difference to the eventual Placepot dividend.  Yes, STOICAL PATIENT should land the hat trick in this grade/company but because of the uncertainty relating to the number of participants, I’m including FINNEGAN’S GARDEN and EASTER IN PARIS in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  That said, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1, 16/1 & 14/1; hence my worry relating to a potential ‘win only’ event unfolding.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Stoical Patient (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled (in brackets) on the corresponding card during the last five years:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6)

5—Anthony Honeyball (1)

4—Paul Henderson (1)

3—Diana Grissell

3—Colin Tizzard (1)

2—Zoe Davidson (1)

2—Nick Gifford (1)

2—Linda Jewell (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—Seamus Mullins

2—Brendan Powell (1)

2—Dan Skelton

2—Sam Thomas

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £57.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Wolverhampton: £370.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Race of the Day – 18 December 2017

Race of the Day - 13:50 Plumpton

When the combination of Colin Tizzard and Harry Cobden have teamed up recently, they have generally been very successful, as can be seen on the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report.

Over the past 30 days, they've had eight winners (40.00%) and 11 places (55.00%) from 20 runners, for level stakes profits of 18.88 and 18.94 respectively and an Impact Value of 3.79.

There have two runners together at Plumpton today, and I am going to be taking a closer look at Bears Rails, who runs in a three miles and two furlongs handicap chase.

Bears Rails had slipped down the handicap following some below-par performances, but he put in a fine performance in heavy ground at Uttoxeter last time out where he was just denied a victory in the final strides. He has been put back up three pounds for that second place, but if he gets his jumping right again then he can definitely be in the thick of things in this quality of race.

The Tizzard yard has been among the winners recently with a strike rate of 22.09% over the past month. The Trainer Snippets on the racecard also shows that he has a particularly good record with his runners over the marathon distances. With such runners, he has managed 19 winners (17.76%) and 49 places (45.79%) from 107 runners, for level stakes profits of 23.47 and 46.12 respectively.

Harry Cobden has been in excellent form recently, with 20 runners in the last month. He also has a useful record here at Plumpton, with six winners (31.58%) and ten places (52.63%) from 19 runners over the last year, for level stakes profits of 1.75 and 3,08 respectively and an Impact Value of 2.31.

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There is little to get excited about on the Instant Expert report, however, Bears Rails does have one of the two green sections that are there. He also has a couple of sections of amber which shows that he is at least reasonably well suited to today's conditions. He is six pounds higher than for his last win, but his performance last time out from just three pounds lower than today gives encouragement.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a good record, with 21.30% of them going on to win the race.

Bears Rails has the highest pace score in this race and he was the long-time leader when he ran well last time out, therefore, I think it is likely that Cobden will adopt similar tactics here today.

Click here for the 13:50 at Plumpton.

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Stat of the Day, 18th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG PU at 5/1  Held up towards rear, pushed along before 11th, soon weakened, tailed off and pulled up before 12th

Next up is Monday's...

4.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo Claimer over 9.5f on Tapeta worth £3,396 to the winner...

And a 2yr old Colt trained by Jamie Osborne, whose Class 4/5 runners here at Wolverhampton are 46/244 (18.9% SR) for 84.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit, in respect of today's contest, those 244 runners are...

  • at Class 5 : 38/198 (19.2%) for 45.4pts (+22.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 38/157 (24.2%) for 103.8pts (+66.1%)
  • unplaced LTO : 28/123 (22.8%) for 124.8pts (+101.5%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 11/1 : 27/102 (26.5%) for 104.5pts (+102.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 14/83 (16.9%) for 25.1pts (+30.2%)
  • this year : 11/47 (23.4%) for 22.4pts (+47.6%)
  • over this 9.5f trip : 10/31 (32.3%) for 11pts (+35.5%)
  • in Claimers : 6/20 (30%$) for 4.4pts (+22%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 3/18 (16.7%) for 10.2pts (+56.8%)

He's also by the sire Lope de Vega, whose offspring are 41/186 (22% SR) for 193.8pts (+104.2%) on the All-Weather over the last two years, including...

  • males @ 35/158 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+90.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 21/66 (31.8%) for 63.3pts (+96%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/61 (26.2%) for 31.6pts (+51.8%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 8/47 (17%) for 21.9pts (+46.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Sunday with the same (but non-BOG) also available from Betfred/Totesport. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 17th December

SOUTHWELL – DECEMBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Southwell: 

Leg 1 (12.25): 1 (Corner Creek), 3 (Silent Man) & 2 (Redmond)

Leg 2 (12.55): 6 (Rockandrollrambo), 7 (Cash Again) & 8 (Midnight Gem)

Leg 3 (1.30): 2 (Article Fifty) & 11 (Super Sid)

Leg 4 (2.05): 8 (First Assignment), 9 (Gunfleet) & 2 (Silver Kaif)

Leg 5 (2.35): 5 (Stepover), 1 (Midnight Silver) & 2 (Fool To Cry)

Leg 6 (3.05): 1 (Cabaret Queen) & 5 (Our Belle Amie)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.25: Seven of the eleven available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11-1, as have the last three winners of the race which were returned at 5/1, 10/3 & 5/2.  CORNER CREEK won well here over a slightly shorter trip, despite the fact that today’s pilot dropped his whip during the closing stages.  Wearing cheek-pieces for the first time that day, it remains to be seen if that was a one-off effort though Michael Scudamore deserves credit for finding another race which should not take a great deal of winning.  SILENT MAN and REDMOND should offer better value for money than some here in naming this pair as the likely dangers to the selection.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites (via four renewals) have secured Placepot positions, albeit we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Corner Creek (good)

1/2—Global Domination (soft)

3/14—French Seventyfive (3 x good)

 

12.55: All four winners have carried 11-3 or more though unfortunately, that stat only eliminates two of the nine entries that are still due to face the starter at the time of writing.  Ian Williams has won with both runners at the venue this season and the first of his two raiders on the card looks set to go close here, namely ROCKANDROLLRAMBO.  Anyone who homes in on the fancied horses here however should look at the favourite stats below!  Each way alternative options include CASH AGAIN and MIDNIGHT GEM.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have failed to claim Placepot positions to date, let alone win their respective events!

Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/2—Weyburn (good)

1/1—Barton Rose (soft)

1/10—Mondo Cane (soft)

2/24—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)

 

1.30: Warren Greatrex has saddled three of his last six runners to winning effect with the trainer having declared two runners on the Southwell card.  The second inmate contests the 3.35 event (‘after we have gone off air’) following ARTICLE FIFTY who makes his debut over timber having won well in a bumper event at Uttoxeter last month.  SUPER SID is taken to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is the first of a few new races on the Southwell card this afternoon.

 

2.05: FIRST ASSIGNMENT is the other Ian Williams runner on the card for Ian Williams, albeit the trainer’s last 15 runners have been beaten which is a sobering stat to offer, despite his 100% record at the track this season as previously mentioned.  GUNFLEET looks the likeliest horse to benefit if Ian is to be denied here with trainer Emma Lavelle continuing to turn out regular winners.  SILVER KAIF is the other potential gold medallist in the field from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Southwell programme.

 

2.35: I cannot pretend that this course is one of my favourite venues but always attempting to be fair, this is an attractive potential ‘dead eight’ contest which is far from easy to assess which in theory, is the way all races should pan out.  Relevant to their respective odds at the time of writing, the safest threesome to include in my permutation might prove to be STEPOVER, MIDNIGHT SILVER and FOOL TO CRY, considering that the trio all have decent amounts of potential investment wait to be accommodated in the positive queue on the exchanges in the dead of night.

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Favourite factor: The three favourites thus far have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event on the card:

2/6—Stepover (2 x good)

1/2—Beyeh (good to soft)

 

3.05: I would have a degree of confidence in landing the Southwell ‘pot with just two options here, providing all five runners stand their ground in the contest.  A non runner would take this event into ‘win only’ territory and if that should be the case by the time that your read this column, the race would be offered with a ‘health warning’ regarding the cash in your pocket.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by naming CABARET QUEEN and OUR BELLE AMIE against the remaining trio.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race at Southwell on Sunday.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more on the Southwell card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/15 +6)

3—Tom George (2/13 – loss of 7 points)

3—Jamie Snowden (0/1)

2—Caroline Bailey (3/15 +1)

2—Kim Bailey (2/5 +10)

2—Jack R Barber (1/2 +3)

2—Brian Barr (1/2 +6)

2—Gillian Boanas (0/7)

2—John Cornwall (0/7)

2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners this season)

2—Johnny Farrelly (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)

2—Seamus Mullins (0/3)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/24 – loss of 5 points)

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/1)

2—Dan Skelton (5/26 – loss of 10 points)

2—David Thompson (1/10 – level profit/loss on the year)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Ian Williams (2/2 +13)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

68 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividend from last year:

Chelmsford – This is a new (Additional) meeting

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th December

CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £119.70 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 3 (Apple’s Shikari) & 2 (Nube Negra)

Leg 2 (12.45): 4 (Movewiththetimes), 1 (Jameson) & 3 (Coo Star Sivola)

Leg 3 (1.20): 6 (Bentelimar), 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Grey Gold)

Leg 4 (1.55): 1 (Clan Des Obeaux), 11 (Guitar Pete) & 8 (King’s Odyssey)

Leg 5 (2.30): 1 (Count Meribel), 3 (Equus Secretus) & 2 (Aye Aye Charlie)

Leg 6 (3.05): 2 (The New One) & 1 (Melon)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10: The last five horses saddled by Paul Nicholls in this opening event have secured two gold medals and two of the silver variety between them, the only problem being the defeat of a 2/7 chance during the period.  Paul secured an 84/1 four timer on the card six years ago, having saddled 38 winners at the two day fixture during the last eight years.  You might imagine than I am particularly frustrated that Paul is not represented this time around, though I have left the stats in for you in terms of next year’s contest!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that old rival Nicky Henderson looks to have found a real star in APPLE’S SHIKARA and the obstacles look more of a threat than any of his rivals here.  NUBE NEGRA should prove to be the pick of the other three entries but if Dan Skelton’s raider gets within 10 lengths of the favourites, the Skelton team will probably be happy enough, especially as Dan’s Market Rasen debut winner is asked to give the filly four pounds!
Favourite factor: 63/65 horses which were sent off at 11/1 or more were beaten during the study period which suggests we should keep fancied horses on the right side, despite a 33/1 chance upsetting the apple-cart four years ago.  14 of the last 17 winners have been returned at 6/1 or less, statistics which includes six successful favourites.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  That said, ‘only’ five of the nine odds on favourites have won during the last 16 years.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Apple’s Shakira (soft)

 

12.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last 14 renewals during which time, six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged. The vintage record is especially impressive given that the vintage was not represented five years ago.  Two six-year-olds enter the equation with MOVEWITHTHE TIMES demanding centre stage over Kalondra.  I prefer JAMESON and course winner COO STAR SIVOLA as the main threats to the market leader on this occasion, casting aside the other six-year-old in the field.
Favourite factor: Going back a little further in time, 12 of the 17 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via 16 renewals, statistics which include nine winners.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/6—Coo Star Sivola

 

1.20: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this handicap steeplechase event over Cheltenham’s minimum trip, whilst favourites have won four of the last seven contests at 5/1-4/1-11/4-11/4**.  BENTELIMAR is the lone vintage representative this time around and having finished ‘in the three’ six times from ten starts on soft ground (winning three of those assignments), Charlie Longsdon’s Beneficial gelding is the each way call.  Kerry Lee will be in confident mode coming into this event because not only does the trainer have the current second favourite in the line up in GINO TRAIL, Kerry has also declared GREY GOLD with live win and place claims off a featherweight.  The twelve-year-old is no back number as yet from my viewpoint and with a five pound claimer booked, GREY GOLD receives over two and a half stones from former champion Sire De Grugy.  PEARLS LEGEND has his ground but despite having finished in the three 22/33 times in and around this trip, he is not quite the force of old.  That said, this race has ‘bookmaker’s result’ written all over it according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 winners had been sent off at a top price of 13/2 before last year’s 33/1 winner reared its ugly head. It’s worth noting that only five market leaders (includes four winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame during the recent period, negative figures which include two pairs of joint favourites in two of the last three years.

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/5—Sire De Grugy (good)

1/3—Pearls Legend (soft)

 

1.55: Paul Nicholls saddles CLAN DES OBEAUX, LE PREZIEN and ROMAIN DE SENAM in an attempt to win the race for the fifth time in nine years.  Seven-year-old’s lead the six-year-olds 5-4 during the last 14 years, whilst five of the last ten gold medallists carried weights of 11-4 or more to victory.  GUITAR PETE is the lone seven-year-old in the line up, whilst KING’S ODYSSEY was still going plenty well enough in this event last year when capsizing just as the taps were being turned on.  This pair represent each way value, though whether they can master CLAN DES OBEAUX is another matter entirely.  No horse has represented this columnist better than Splash Of Ginge down the years but Twisty’s grand warrior had a tough race when scoring last time out and others look better weighted on this occasion.
Favourite factor: A fancied horse - if not the favourite - usually wins this event, with 35 victors having been returned at single-figure odds, including 15 of the last 20 gold medallists. In 2007, Tamarinbleu became the longest priced winner in the contest’s history when scoring at 22/1.  Just seven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 15 years.  Indeed, seven renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/4—Le Prezien (soft)

2/6—Foxhill Trail (good & soft)

1/4—Long House Hill (good)

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2/6—Ballyalton (good & good to soft)

1/3—King’s Odyssey (heavy)

3/11—Splash Of Ginge (2 x soft & good to soft)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 6-3 via the last 11 contests, having secured six of the last eight events, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled two of the last three winners.  Nigel has declared COUNT MERIBEL with an obvious chance on behalf of the five-year-olds, albeit fellow vintage representative EQUUS SECRETUS looks a live threat.  All would be done and dusted for the event had Fergal O’Brien not entered two potential jokers in the pack, the pick of which might prove to be the outsider of the pair, namely AYE AYE CHARLIE.
Favourite factor: Market leaders (of one description or another) have secured ten of the 13 renewals thus far, whilst 13 of the last 16 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

3.05: Considering that favourites tend to dominate this toteplacepot finale, it remains interesting that five-year-olds have won three of the last seven (and four of the last ten) contests.  MELON is the lone vintage representative and with Willie Mullins sending over his runners for more than just ‘travel experience’, Willie’s Medicean gelding is the danger in stopping THE NEW ONE bringing the house down at Presbury Park this afternoon.  Nigel’s grand servant goes for a 4/4 record in the contest and if there is one horse at Cheltenham today that is just about guaranteed to give its running, THE NEW ONE is that thoroughbred.  An extremely good judge suggests that John Constable is not one to write off at this level.
Favourite factor: 12 favourites have won during the last 16 years, whilst 13 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the International Hurdle:

6/13—The New One (4 x good to soft – good – soft)

3/8—Old Guard (good – good to soft – soft)

1/9—Dell ‘Arca (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Saturday followed by their total number of winners (in brackets) on the corresponding day at Cheltenham during the last five years

5 runners—Paul Nicholls (5)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (6)

4—Dan Skelton

3—Fergal O’Brien

2—Nicky Henderson (2)

2—Kerry Lee

2—David Pipe (3)

2—Evan Williams (1)

2—Nick Williams

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £1,638.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Hereford: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Newcastle (A/W): £25.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £106.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2017

Friday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 15/8  Tracked leaders on inside, effort to challenge 3 out, ridden before next, kept on and every chance until no extra approaching last

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m on Good ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding with 9 top 3 finishes from 13 starts to date, including 6 wins and in those 13 races, he is...

  • 6/11 in fields of 1-11 runners (3/5 in chases)
  • 6/11 going left handed (3/6 in chases)
  • 6/9 at odds of 6/1 & shorter (3/5 in chases)
  • 3/8 over fences
  • 3/7 within 6 weeks of his last run (2/5 in chases)
  • 3/6 on Good ground (2/5 in chases)
  • 4/5 at Class 2 (2/3 in chases)
  • 3/5 in fields of 8 to 11 (1/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 in this grade (1/1 in chases)

And he's trained by Dan Skelton, whose handicap chasers priced at 7/2 to 12/1 over trips of 2m1.5f to 3m1f are 27/176 (15.3% SR) for 21.2pts (+12.1% ROI) including...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 23/131 (17.6%) for 34.5pts (+26.4%)
  • on Good ground : 15/76 (19.7%) for 24.2pts (+31.8%)
  • in the October-December period : 13/76 (17.1%) for 30.8pts (+40.5%)
  • 8 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 14.4pts (+35.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.15pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 9/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 16th Dec 2017

A MASSIVE day up at Prestbury Park as the Cheltenham December Meeting continues this Saturday, plus the ITV cameras also head to Doncaster for three races - as always we're on-hand with all the big-race trends and stats…..

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.55 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
11/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (no winners)
10/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (4 won)
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Officially rated 142 or higher
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/15 – French bred
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
4/15 – Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

2.30 - Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/13 – Placed favourites
12/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/13 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 6 or younger
11/13 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
10/13 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
10/13 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (2 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
9/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/13 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
8/13 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/13 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
8/13 – Irish bred
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8

3.05 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4

15/15 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
13/15 – Won over 2m1f (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
12/15 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
12/15 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Won their latest race
11/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
11/15 –  Favourites placed
11/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/15 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/15 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/15 – Rated 162 or higher
7/15 – Winning distance:  4+ lengths
6/15 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
4/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/15 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won the Betfair Hurdle last time out
2/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
1/15 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
The New One has won the race in 2013, 2014 and 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 7/2

3.40 – OLBG Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4

Just 2 previous runnings
Both winners carried 10-11 in weight
Both winners aged 7 or 8 years-old
No winning favourite yet
Trainer Harry Fry has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Martin Keighley has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Neil Mulholland has only a 3% strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Fergal O’Brien is just 2 from 29 with his hurdlers at the track

Your first 30 days for just £1

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

2.10 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
7/7 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
6/7 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Priced 9/4 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Placed favourites
5/7 – French (2) or Irish (3) bred
5/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Winning favourites
4/7 – Won last time out
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 4 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/4

Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park

2.45 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/7 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 3
6/7 – Had won just once before over hurdles
5/7 – Irish (3) or French (2) bred
5/7 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
4/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/7 – Trained by John Quinn
2/7 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls the race 12 months ago
Peace and Co won the race in 2015 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 11/2

3.20 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4

8/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Aged 8 or younger
7/8 – Had won no more than 2 times over fenced
6/8 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
5/8 – Aged 7 years-old
5/8 – Unplaced last time out
5/8 – Irish bred
5/8 – Ran at Doncaster before
5/8 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
2/8 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
1/8 – Winning favourites
The last three winners were all rated 139
No Duffer (9/1) won the race 12 months ago
Sego Success won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 7/1

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th December

CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,708.10 (7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Western Ryder) & 7 (Summerville Boy)

Leg 2 (12.45): 4 (Tintern Theatre), 3 (Sizing Tennessee) & 2 (Dual At Dawn)

Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (Smaoineamh Alainn), 4 (Okotoks) & 2 (Remiluc)

Leg 4 (1.55): 1 (Song Saa), 6 (Twenty Eight Guns) & 8 (Viking Mistress)

Leg 5 (2.30): 3 (Waytzizname) & 6 (Shanroe Sands)

Leg 6 (3.05): 3 (Josies Orders), 1 (More Than That) & 2 (Tiger Roll)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Breakdown of the 2015 record Placepot dividend of £91,774.50 to a one pound stake at this corresponding meeting:

First leg: One of the two 3/1 second favourites claimed a Placepot position alongside an 11/2 chance in a six runner contest

Second leg: Although two outsiders filled the forecast positions at 16/1 & 25/1, the sixth horse in the market at 9/1 reached the frame.  All four 6/1 co-favourites finished out with the washing

Third leg: The 11/8 market leader finished out of the money behind horses which secured Placepot positions at 8/1, 14/1 & 9/1

Fourth leg: The first three favourites at 10/3, 4/1 & 4/1 all finished out of the ‘dead eight frame’

Fifth leg: The 11/4 second favourite led home horses at 7/1 & 28/1 with the 5/2 favourite finishing nearer last than first

Sixth leg: Regular readers will know that I have waxed lyrical about the poor performances of favourites in handicap hurdle races over a distance beyond the minimum trip.  Last year’s result (33/1-66/1-16/1) guaranteed that a huge dividend was just waiting to be announced.  The first six horses in the market all finished out with the washing.

Afterthought: Eight of the seventeen win and placed horses were sent off in single figures, proving that you don’t have to ‘go for broke’ to win a great dividend.  Indeed - 13/17 were placed at 16/1 or less – with 16/20 horses starting at 20/1 or more finishing out of the frame

 

Today’s race by race analysis: 

 

12.10:  By Cheltenham standards, this is an extremely ordinary card though it is still better sport than we have to witness on most days.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals though trainers have not been wise to the ‘edge’ this time around unfortunately, whereby I’m relying on WESTERN RYDE and SUMMERVILLE BOY to carry my Placepot cash in the opening event, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  SHOAL BAY would be the call if you are looking for a big priced winner in the first heat and/or if you want to take on the fancied horses from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor:  Just one (4/6) favourite has obliged during the last decade, though eight of the relevant gold medallists scored at a top price of 5/1.  Six of the ten market leaders claimed Placepot position though from a win perspective, favourites have been turned over at 4/7 and 8/11 in recent years.

 

12.45: Six-year-olds have won 11 of the last 15 renewals and the trend could well be extended, with TINTERN THEATRE having been given the green light by Nigel Twiston-Davies.  Out of interest, the lone vintage raider is attempting to become the eighth consecutive six-year-old winner of the contest! Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals, though the weather this week has seemingly gone against his representative Coastal Dip.  SIZING TENNESSEE and DUAL AT DAWN are preferred accordingly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.  Just two of the seven odds on favourites have won during the last 17 years.  A total of 39 horses starting at 6/1 or more failed to win during the study period.

 

1.20: 14 of the last 20 winners carried weights of 11-8 or less, whilst seven scorers were burdened with a maximum of 10-12.  Five-year-olds have won seven of the last 15 renewals.  Putting the stats and facts together, an overnight short list emerges containing the names of SMAOINEAMH ALAINN, OKOTOKS and REMILUC.  The first named runner (don’t ask me to type the name again) is the lone five-year-old in the contest, whilst OKOTOKS represents the underrated yard of Fergal O’Birebn who I have been telling you for some time in the unsung Cheltenham trainer to call on if you don’t know what to back.  Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner and it’s worth noting that the trainer had booked a five pound claimer aboard REMILUC who creeps into the ‘superior’ weight sector accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won in recent years, accompanied by two joint favourites.  14 of the last 24 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.  A word of warning for favourite punters however, as the only odds on favourite was beaten ten years ago at 4/5.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/5—Qualando (good)

 

1.55: SONG SAA was well beaten in this event last year but has subsequently won two of her eight assignments (one under heavy conditions), notwithstanding the fact that the Midnight Legend mare has finished ‘in the three’ in her last six races.  The seven pound claimer represents the same poundage in terms of her advantage compared to the effort twelve months ago which should enable the six-year-old to become competitive at the business end of the contest, arguably alongside the likes of TWENTY EIGHT GUNS and VIKING MISTRESS who both offer value for money from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Horses filled the frame at 16/1, 7/1 & 13/23 in last year’s inaugural contest, with the 10/3 market leader missing out on a Placepot position.

 

2.30: The last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whilst eight-year-olds have secured five of the last 12 renewals. WATZIZNAME and SHANROE SANTOS are the two horses I like in the line up which qualify via the trends.
Favourite factor: Favourites have an excellent record in this event, obliging on 23 occasions since the inaugural contest.  However, the most recent successful leader was Midnight Chase at 11/4 back in 2010.  It’s also worth noting that only two of last seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third race:

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/5—Southfield Theatre (good to soft)

 

2.05: 11 of the last 12 winners have been nine years of age or more, with nine of those gold medallists recorded in double figures.   Enda Bolger has saddled four of the last ten winners and putting the stats and facts together, JOSIES ORDERS, MORE OF THAT and TIGER ROLL are nominated against the remaining six contenders.  The latter named raider fails the vintage trend requirement but like MORE THAN THAT, this new discipline might transform ordinary recent efforts into additional Cheltenham success given their great records at the venue.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine market leaders have claimed four gold and four silver medals between them alongside toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/7—More Than That (3 x good to soft & soft)

3/5—Tiger Roll (2 x good to soft & good)

3/4—Josies Orders (2 x good & good to soft)

1/11—Bless The Wings (good to soft)

1/10—Cantlow (good to firm)

1/3—Kingswell Theatre (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by this season’s stats + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Warren Greatrex (0/4)

4—Colin Tizzard (4/21 – loss of 11 points)

3—Enda Bolger (0/2)

3—Tom George (0/8)

3—Paul Nicholls (3/16 – loss of 4 points)

3—David Pipe (1/7 +5)

3—Michael Scudamore (1/1 +14)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/21 +23)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/6)

2—Chris Gordon (0/1)

2—Martin Keighley (2/9 +27)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/13 +6)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/11)

2—Lucy Wadham (No previous runners this season)

2—Richard Woollacott (0/1)

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £54.30 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 unplaced

Doncaster: £141.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.15 Taunton : Workbench @ 11/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Self Cert (Off Colour)

Next up is Friday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old Mare sired by Midnight Legend, whose female handicap hurdlers racing over 2m3f to 3m1.5f are 86/580 (14.8% SR) for 248pts (+42.8% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • in female only races : 42/221 (19%) for 74.32pts (+33.6%)
  • at class 4 : 37/221 (16.7%) for 131.3pts (+59.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 23/120 (19.2%) for 40.9pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.1pts (+46.7%)

She's trained by Philip Hobbs and drops down a class today and over the last 4 yrs, runners from the yard dropping down a grade in NH handicaps are 33/190 (17.4% SR) for 82.2pts (+43.2% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 13/71 (18.3%) for 62.5pts (+88.1%)
  • and females are 5/11 (45.5%) for 21.5pts (+195.1%)

She's also Philip's only runner of the day, yet embarks on a 470-mile round trip from the Somerset base and this is relevant, because over the last 6 years, when having just one runner, Mr Hobbs is 70/312 (22.4% SR) for 60.3pts (+19.3% ROI), whilst in NH handicaps during December to February on tracks 200 miles or more away from his yard, the Hobbs runners are 10/55 (18.2% SR) for 33.2pts (+60.4% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 26.6pts (+106.4%)
  • here at Doncaster : 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.1pts (+205.7%)
  • and Doncaster hurdlers are 4/10 (40%) for 39.12pts (+391.2%)

..pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 at 5.45pm on Thursday whilst both Betfred & Totesport matched that price despite not going BOG until morning and there's plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th December

TAUNTON - DECEMBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £215.60 (8 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.00): 1 (Brahms De Clermont), 10 (Grapevine) & 2 (Parthenius)

Leg 2 (12.30): 7 (Dan Mcgrue) & 2 (Kings Ryde)

Leg 3 (1.05): 3 (Silent Steps), 5 (Bradford Bridge) & 4 (Never Learn)

Leg 4 (1.35): 1 (New Millennium), 9 (Status Quo) & 6 (Tobacco Road)

Leg 5 (2.10): 5 (Molineaux), 2 (The Welsh Paddies) & 14 (Padleyourowncanoe)

Leg 6 (2.45): 2 (Top Notch) & 4 (Max Ward)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.00:  First and foremost, it will be interesting to read about the going later this morning because here in Bristol, we had a lot of rain yesterday evening.  Keep your eyes peeled for news about the ground because if Taunton had as much of the wet stuff that we endured, ‘good’ will disappear from the going description when the COTC makes his announcement shortly before first light.  BRAHMS DE CLERMONT will have the best of the ground in the opening event which might be just as well given his two good going successes to date.  GRAPEVINE reached a heady official mark of 90 on the level which should put him there of thereabouts in this discipline, whilst Dan Skelton’s Plumpton winner was a soft ground winner back in Germany earlier in his career.
Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Taunton on Thursday

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/2—Brahms De Clermont (2 x good)

1/2—Show On The Road (good)

 

12.30: Paul Nicholls has secured four gold medals and two of the silver variety via seven contests to date.  Paul saddles DAN MCGRUE this time around, though his old adversary Nicky Henderson (3/3 at the track this season) takes on his old rival on with KINGS RYDE.  Alan King had saddled nineteen consecutive losers before notching a 59/1 Sandown double the other day and the trainer will be hoping that CANELO can continue the ‘recovery’.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (three beaten at odds on at 8/15, 4/6 & 5/6) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far (two winners at 8/15 & 2/5).

 

1.05: A pig of a short field race to assess in all honesty, whereby it will come as no surprise if the poor record of favourites (albeit via just two renewals) continues.  That said, it’s difficult to dismiss the Placepot chances of fancied types such as SILENT STEPS and BRADFORD BRIDGE, whilst adding Colin Tizzard’s ‘second string’ NEVER LEARN into the equation. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Both of the inaugural 3/1 joint favourites failed to complete the course, as did last year’s odds on favourite in a three horse event when failing to complete the course.

 

1.35: Something has to give on this card if the Placepot dividend is going to pay well and I’m going big and bold here by opposing Our Merlin, which some readers will argue against as Robert Walford’s hat trick seeker still receives weight from a few rivals despite being hit with a double penalty of late. Always looking for value, I’m opting for NEW MILLENNIUM, STATUS QUO and David Pipe’s recent course and distance winner TOBACCO ROAD to get us through to the fifth leg. The latter named Pipe raider is set to be ridden by Tom Scudamore who is riding with plenty of confidence these days.  The older Tom gets, the more the ‘Scudamore stamp’ is in evidence, following in the illustrious footsteps of his father and grandfather.  What caps it all, is that he seems like a ready decent chap too when interviewed.

Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot position by finishing second in their respective events.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Tobacco Road (good)

1/2—Jaunty Inflight (good to firm)

 

2.10: Six-year-olds have won four of the six renewals thus far, with MOLINEAUX appearing to be the pick of the three vintage representatives on this occasion.  The record of the six-year-olds is all the more impressive, given that lone representatives have lined up on the majority of occasions in the contest.  THE WELSH PADDIES has to be included, whilst my trio against the field is completed by the recent soft ground Exeter winner PADLEYOUROWNCANOE.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions via six renewals, statistics which include three (9/2, 11/4 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/3—Garo De Juilley (good)

2/6—Heres Herbie (good & good to soft)

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2.45:  This is the Grade 2 ‘Peterborough Chase’ which was transferred onto this card after Huntingdon’s meeting was abandoned last weekend.  Connections of TOP NOTCH will not have worried too much about the rain which was falling in the west-country last night and this wonderfully athletic six-year-old gelding will find these fences to his liking, bearing in mind that he was seen to be almost ‘hurdling’ the bigger obstacles at Ascot the last day which was breath-taking to witness.  The trade press quote of 8/13 is fanciful in the extreme with 2/5 being the likely starting price.  If the two prices do not seem to represent much of a difference to new readers, it’s as well to note that the differential is about the same as a horse being backed in from 9/1 to 4/1.  Last year’s winner (stable companion) Josses Hill has also been declared, though I prefer the 22/1 chance MAX WARD as the forecast call, provided that the ground does not cut up too much prior to flag fall.
Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have prevailed during the last decade, nine of the winners scored at a top price of 15/2.  Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Max Ward (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Thursday – followed by their stats at the track this season + Profits/losses accrued:

6—Paul Nicholls (3/10 – loss of 5 points)

6—Colin Tizzard (2/6 +5)

5—Nicky Henderson (3/3 +9)

5—David Pipe (1/8 +5)

4—Neil Mulholland (0/3)

3—Philip Hobbs (0/7)

3—Alan King (0/2)

3—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (0/2)

3—Dan Skelton (0/3)

3—Tim Vaughan (0/6)

2—David Dennis (No previous runners)

2—Chris Down (0/5)

2—Alexandra Dunn (0/6)

2—Harry Fry (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (No previous runners)

2—Richard Phillips (0/1)

2—Christian Williams (No previous runners)

2—Richard Woollacott (0/3)

+29 trainers with one runner on the card

89 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newcastle (NH): £51.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Warwick: £147.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £176.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Race of the Day – 14 December 2017

Race of the Day - 19:15 Chelmsford

Calling Out makes it onto The Shortlist in a good looking one-mile handicap on the all-weather at Chelmsford. He has a score of nine, with three sections of green and one of amber, showing that he is well suited to conditions in this one.

When looking at the form on the racecard we can see that Calling Out was in good form at the start of the year, winning at Wolverhampton over nine furlongs and then finishing second at Lingfield. They were both conditions races, and prior to that, he was racing in Listed events. This is his first race in a handicap and it's no surprise to see him sharing top weight.

Trainer David Simcock has a useful long-term record here at Chelmsford. Over the past five years, he's had 28 winners (20.44%) and 59 places (43.07%) from 137 runners, for level stakes profits of 19.67 and 4.71 respectively, and an Impact Value of 1.75.

He also has a reasonable record with his horses having their first run in a handicap. He has a strike rate of 15.79% from 76 runners which have produced an Impact Value of 1.57.

The Instant Expert report confirms the excellent showing of Calling Out and it looks as though he should be fine to cope with the top weight.

The other top weight, Certificate, comes out the best on this report with four sections of green and one of amber.

Chelmsford is a tough course to come from behind on and the Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a good record, with 19.15% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 35.70 and an Impact value of 1.66.

London and Calling Out have the highest pace scores in this field and look the most likely to be leading. Low drawn runners have a definite advantage so with Calling Out in stall one, he has the chance to grab the lead and dictate things from the front.

Click here for the 19:15 at Chelmsford.

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Stat of the Day, 14th December 2017

Wednesday's Result :

3.00 Lingfield : Attain @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 11/4 Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong

Next up is Thursday's...

3.15 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Workbench @ 11/2 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m2.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £8,862 to the winner...

And a 9 yr old gelding in decent nick, having won two of his last five starts including a win last time out at Sandown 6 days ago in this grade.

Now he's trained by Dan Skelton and almost inevitably ridden by Harry Skelton and over the 6 years of SotD, I've lost track of the number of times I've advised you to keep an eye on this pair, so in the interests of brevity and/or sanity, I'll not bore you by repeating myself!

One angle about the Skelton "boys", I might not have mentioned previously (or recently anyway!) however, is this quite relevant one...

...Dan + Harry + Males + Top 4 finish LTO 4-15 days earlier + April to December = 36/102 (35.3% SR) for 12.34pts (+12.1% ROI) when sent off at odds of 7/1 and shorter. So, basically males turned back out fairly quickly after a decent run and not now considered a longshot.

Of these 102 qualifiers...

  • LTO winners are 20/50 (40%) for 1.79pts (+3.6%), tending to get well backed, so we need our early prices!
  • chasers are 15/40 (37.5%) for 10.13pts (+25.3%)
  • over trips of 2m1.5f to 2m4.5f : 16/37 (43.2%) for 21.48pts (+58.1%)
  • 8/9 yr olds are 10/25 (40%) for 8.41pts (+33.6%)
  • and on Good to Soft ground : 6/17 (35.3%) for 5.46pts (+32.1%)

Whilst more generally, in handicap chases, 9 & 10 yr olds priced at 15/8 to 13/2 within 7 days of their last run are 106/419 (25.3% SR) for 90.2pts (+21.5% ROI) since 2009, from which...

  • over trips of 2m to 2.75m : 81/225 (29.5%) for 101.6pts (+36.9%)
  • LTO winners are 35/120 (29.2%) for 42.6pts (+35.5%)
  • and LTO winners racing over 2m to 2.75m : 25/81 (30.9%) for 35.6pts (+44%)

..giving us... a 1pt win bet on Workbench @ 11/2 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.30pm on Wednesday, with plenty of acceptable 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th December

KEMPTON – DECEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £117.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (3.40): 5 (Monadee) & 8 (Azpeitia)

Leg 2 (4.10): 9 (Bombshell Bay), 1 (Dance Emperor) & 3 (Mr Gent)

Leg 3 (4.40): 12 (TumTum), 1 (Rusper) & 5 (Mayer)

Leg 4 (5.10): 6 (Highbrow) & 8 (Returning Glory)

Leg 5 (5.40): 3 (Humbert) & 5 (Maximinus Thrax)

Leg 6 (6.10): 8 (Viola Park), 1 (Wild Acclaim) & 6 (Vixen)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

3.40: MONADEE and AZPEITIA should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager, though that’s as far as my interest goes in the opening event.  Both horses can use their experience to decent effect in a race that should not take a great deal of winning.  Breathless Times is a newcomer to keep an eye on for the future, whilst Marco Botti’s Cloud Eight is entitled to come on a great deal for an ordinary debut effort over course and distance recently.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card.

 

4.10: Four of the last twelve horses saddled by Richard Hannon have won (seven points of level stake profit accrued during the period) and there has been a level of interest in BOMBSHELL BAY overnight, probably via win and place money given his favourable trap one position. His best effort was when beaten half a length when ‘given the office’ at Chelmsford a while ago since when he has been held up in recent races.  I’m inclined to think the trainer will opt for blasting out of the stalls from the inside position, adopting a catch me if you can stance which could prove favourable over this shorter trip, especially for each way investors who struck whilst most of the country slept.  The Placepot chance for DANCE EMPEROR is there for all to see, whilst MR GENT is saddled by Ed Dunlop who has greeted two of his last five runners in the area reserved for winners.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has gained a Placepot position thus far by winning its respective event at odds of 11/4.

 

4.40: I note that Holy Shambles is on the slide as I write this column, a potential description of the England Ashes tour which could be in place by tomorrow evening!  It was the declaration of George Baker’s newcomer French Cricket which drew me to the negative comment of the ‘professionals’ down under though whatever the performance of Root & Co during the coming days, this event might be best left to TUM TUM and Jamie Osborne’s Lingfield winner RUSPER from a Placepot perspective.  In receipt of seven pounds here, TUM TUM would be the tentative call if the proverbial gun was put to my head to name the potential winner.  Any money for MAYER could be worth heeding to small stakes.

Favourite factor: The is the first of two divisions of a new ‘novice’ event.

 

5.10: ONLY HIGHBROW and Saeed Bin Suroor’s lone runner on the card RETURNING GLORY are being shown any respect by punters at the time of writing and it would seemingly be churlish in the extreme to oppose this pair from a Placepot perspective.  Although poorly drawn (11/14), HIGHBROW showed enough over the course and distance on debut to suggest that a race of this nature should be there for the taking in ordinary company and the only other horse in the field that might turn out to be better than the adjective offered is RETURNING GLORY in the blue silks of Godolphin.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton programme.

 

5.40: Three pound claimer Marc Monaghan should be riding with confidence having ridden a winner for Marco Botti the other day, his 38th winner down the years which has been achieved via a strike rate just short of ten per cent.  Marco saddles HAIL CLOUD here and any move in the market should be covered to small stakes, if only to cover potential Placepot losses.  Others to consider include MAXIMINUS THRAX and HUMBERT who has some semi-serious money in the positive queue on the exchanges at around the 5/2 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful even money favourite had a lot to make up for via the two previous renewals of this event. In 2005, the frame was filled by horses which were returned at 8/1, 14/1 & 100/1, whilst the inaugural running recorded a defeat for the 2/5 market leader which finished out of the frame.

 

6.10: The three gold medallists have carried a minimum weight of 8-13, stats which effectively rule four horses out of contention if you take the eight trend seriously, one of which fell through the ‘superior’ barrier via a jockey claim.  We are left with the seven horses to assess, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be VIOLA PARK, WILD ACCLAIM and VIXEN.  The (well drawn) first named pair have both been the subject of some support in the dead of night, whilst Eve Johnson Houghton saddles VIXEN, seeking to end a particularly good year for the popular trainer.

Favourite factor: Although we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective, three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale – no other course winners in ‘our sector’ of the meeting:

3/7—Dragon Dream

1/3—Brother In Arms

 

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this year + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Neil Mullholland (2/17 – loss of 17 points)

3—Marco Botti (7/56 +4)

3—Ed Dunlop (5/19 – loss of 17 points)

3—Richard Hughes (12/72 +22)

3—Hughie Morrison (5/33 – slight loss)

3—Pat Phelan (0/29)

2—Michael Appleby (6/29 +9)

2—John Best (1/39 – loss of 31 points)

2—Tony Carroll (2/79 – loss of 69 points)

2—David Elsworth (1/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—James Fanshawe (3/48 – loss of 30 points)

2—Jimmy Fox (2/24 – loss of 17 points)

2—Karen George (0/6)

2—John Gosden (13/58 – loss of 3 points)

2—Rae Guest (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Richard Hannon (15/129 – loss of 18 points)

2—Peter Hedger (1/14 – loss of 5 points)

2—Brett Johnson (4/19 +20)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (1/45 – loss of 36 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/12)

2—Gary Moore (7/62 – loss of 27 points)

2—Jamie Osborne (4/46 +8)

2—David Simcock (2/40 – loss of 34 points)

2—Ed Walker (13/61 – loss of 1 point)

2—Ian Williams (2/19 – loss of 9 points)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

97 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £171.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new (replacement) fixture

 

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