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Stat of the Day, 20th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.20 Leicester : Delft Dancer @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Dwelt in rear, headway over 2f out, tracked leaders over 1f out, ridden and stayed on to go 2nd towards finish )

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 2, Fillies Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m5½f on Good To Firm ground worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

Full(er) details in due course...

...but first...a 1pt win bet on Mistress Quickly 7/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, BetVictor, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.45 Yarmouth : Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/2 (In touch, headway entering final furlong, soon joined leader, driven to lead post)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

4.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Delft Dancer @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

In an 11-runner, Class 5 Flat Nursery for 2yo over 7f on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

A 2 yr old filly, making her sixth start after four top 3 finishes including 1 win so far.

Her trainer Mark Johnston is in good form, with 23 winners from 105 (21.9% SR) yielding 50.8pts profit at an ROI of 48.3% over the last fortnight, whilst today's jockey Silvestre de Sousa is in similarly good touch riding 16 winners from 78 (20.5% SR) for 25.5pts (+32.8% ROI) in the same 14 day period.

More generally, here at Leicester, Mark's horses have won 15 of 46 (32.6% SR) for 22.4pts (+48.6% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 12/33 (36.4%) for 25.6pts (+77.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 7/17 (41.2%) for 9.68pts (+57%)
  • females are 6/16 (37.5%) for 12pts (+75%)
  • over 5 to 7 furlongs : 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.69pts (+60.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 5/15 933.3%) for 7pts (+46.8%)

Meanwhile, also here at Leicester, Mr de Sousa has ridden 32 winners from 123 (26% SR) for profits of 64.7pts (+52.6% ROI) since the start of the 2015 season and these include...

  • 23 wins from 79 (29.1%) for 57.8pts (+73.1%) over 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 21 from 72 (29.2%) for 53.3pts (+74.1%) in handicaps
  • 13 from 44 (29.6%) for 44.7pts (+101.7%) at Class 5
  • 11 from 41 (26.8%) for 29.6pts (+72.3%) over 7f
  • 9 from 312 (29%) for 32.4pts (+104.6%) on Good to Firm
  • and 5 from 10 (50%) for 13.84pts (+138.4%) in Nursery races

Trainer and jockey also have a good record when they come together, winning 81 of 439 (18.5% SR) handicaps for 142.3pts (+32.4% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • on the Flat (turf) : 65/348 (18.7%) for 167.4pts (+48.1%)
  • with females : 30/158 (19%) for 133.6pts (+84.5%)
  • over 7f to 1m : 29/127 (22.8%) for 24.3pts (+19.2%)
  • in July : 20/63 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+34.8%)
  • here at Leicester : 6/24 925%) for 4.74pts (+19.8%)

...and from the above : Johnston + de Sousa + females + Flat (turf) + 7f to 1m = 8/38 921.1% SR) for 4.88pts (+12.9% ROI), from which...

  • in July : 3/5 960%) for 8.49pts (+169.8%)
  • at Leicester : 2/4 950%) for 7.88pts (+197%)
  • and in July here at Leicester = 1/1!

That 1 from 1 July/Leicester runner was when Martini Time won this very race back in 2015 and the same trainer/jockey combo also won this race last year, albeit with a male runner, Ventura Knight.

Like Delft Dancer today, Ventura Knight was also making his sixth career start that day and was also top weighted conceding several pounds all round : so the profile looks strong!

...and points towards...a 1pt win bet on Delft Dancer 9/2 or 4/1 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SkyBet respectively, as of 5.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

3.10 Bath : Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd and no extra towards finish)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.45 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 6 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £3105 to the winner... 

Why?

OK, bear with me here, as some of you might have noticed that this 7 yr old gelding is currently on 13-month/16-race losing run, so that's got to end soon, surely?

All joking apart, now that he's tumbled in the weights, he has shown some signs of a return to previous form, beaten by just two lengths in a higher grade than this two starts ago at Newbury, before finishing fourth at Wolverhampton nine days ago.

In that Wolverhampton contest, he fared best of the hold-up horses and was possibly a little unlucky to be hampered at a crucial time, just as he was winding up for a run, so to come here off a career low mark, some 12lbs below that last win, could just be the right time to get back to winning ways.

He has won 6 of 15 races when sent off at 4/1 or shorter, so the market will be a good indicator of his chances, he's also 3 from 9 in this grade and John Egan has already ridden him to victory.

And since 2009 in Class 4 to 6 Flat & A/W handicaps, Michael Wigham's horses on losing streaks of more than 5 but less than 25 races and now racing off a lower mark than the one they last won off are 14 from 67 (20.9% SR) for 39.7pts (+59.2% ROI), including...

  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 20.6pts (+73.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20.7pts (+94.2%)
  • and those now rated 8 to 15lbs lower than their last winning mark are 5/21 (23.8%) for 14.9pts (+71%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Deeds Not Words @ 7/2 BOGa price available from Bet365, SkyBet & UniBet at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

3.05 Ayr : Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/2 (Made all, joined 2f out, strongly pressed 1f out, stayed on gamely)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Archimedes @ 3/1 BOG

In another 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+, this time over 5f on Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner here at Bath over 5.5f two starts ago, before a 6lb hike in the weights seemed to be a step too far next/last time out when he finished third over this 5f track and trip. In fairness, he was only beaten by two lengths that day and a 3lb easing by the handicapper could well be enough to help him record a 5th win of the year.

His career stats suggest another decent run is on the cards, as under today's conditions, his record includes...

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 39 in handicaps
  • 7 wins, 3 places from 36 with a tongue tie
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 29 wearing cheekpieces
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 15 at odds of 15/8 to 4/1
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 15 this year
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 8 going left handed on turf
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 8 in July
  • 3 wins, 1 place from 7 here at Bath (all over 5/5.5f)
  • and 2 wins, 1 place from 3 on Firm ground

His trainer David Griffiths' horses are 24/138 (17.4% SR) for 37.2pts (+27% ROI) since the start of 2014 when turned back out just 6 to 10 days after their last run from which, handicappers are 23/121 (19%) for 50.15pts (+41.5%) and of these 121 quick returning handicappers...

  • males are 22/104 (21.2%) for 64.1pts (+61.6%)
  • those priced at Evens to 17/2 are 19/65 (29.2%) for 48.5pts (+74.6%)
  • males priced at Evens to 17/2 are 18/60 (30%) for 50.4pts (+84%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/30 (20%) for 10.2pts (+34%)
  • those stepping up a class are 7/21 (33.3%) for 30.5pts (+145.3%)
  • Class 5 males priced at Evens to 17/2 are 6/18 (33.3%) for 22.2pts (+123.3%)
  • males priced at Evens to 17/2 stepping up a class are 6/9 (66.6%) for 30.7pts (+341%)
  • and males priced at Evens to 17/2 stepping up a class to Class 5 are 2/3 (66.6%) for 12.17pts (+405.6%)

And finally for today, a quick word about our jockey Fran Berry, as he has won 11 of 51 Class 4-6 handicaps here at Bath and that 21.6% strike rate is worth 37.2pts at an ROI of 73% for those backing him, including 4/20 (20%) for 15.45pts (+77.25%) at Class 5 and 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.69pts (+33.5%) on Firm ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Archimedes @ 3/1 BOGa price available from Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.20pm on Monday with some 7/2 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

2.15 Newmarket : Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Raced centre, tracked leaders, driven and not quicken 2f out, ridden over 1f out, never pace to challenge)

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.05 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOG

In a 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good ground worth £3817 to the winner...  

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was a comfortable 3 lengths winner at Carlisle nine days ago when making all and with no real discernible pace in opposition today, could well repeat those tactics. If allowed a soft/uncontested lead, I'd expect him to be difficult to peg back under jockey Callum Rodriguez who rode him to great effect last time out.

Since the start of the 2015 campaign, trainer Keith Dalgleish's LTO winners are 49 from 200 (24.5% SR) for 102pts (+51% ROI) on the Flat, including...

  • in Scotland : 30/97 (30.9%) for 83pts (+85.5%)
  • 2-10 days since last run : 18/58 (31%) for 57.7pts (+99.5%)
  • won by 2-5 lengths LTO : 15/46 (32.6%) for 52.2pts (+113.4%)
  • and over 9-11 furlongs : 12/40 (30%) for 28.6pts (+71.5%)

3lb claimer Callum Rodriguez now rides this one for the second time after that LTO success and comes here in good nick, having won 7 of 23 (30.4% SR) for 27.6pts (+119.8% ROI) in the last fortnight, from which he is 2/5 940%) for 14.64pts (+292.8%) here at Ayr and 2 from 3 ( 66.6%) for 2.16pts (+72%) for Mr Dalgleish.

Overall, Callum's record for the yard is 4/9 (44.4% SR) for 15.78pts (+175.3% ROI) in handicaps, whilst at Ayr he has ridden 6 winners from 33 (18.2% SR) for 37.1pts (+112.3% ROI) since the start of last season and these include...

  • in handicaps : 5/27 (18.5%) for 24.2pts (+89.8%)
  • at Class 5/6 : 6/24 (25%) for 46.06pts (+191.9%)
  • and in Class 5/6 handicaps : 5/20 (25%) for 31.24pts (+156.2%)

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Rock N Rolla @ 5/2 BOGa price available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.30pm on Sunday with some 11/4 BOG available from Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 14th July 2018

It’s the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting this Saturday and the ITV cameras are there to take in the best of the action, plus they are also at York and Ascot on what is a bumper Saturday of flat horse racing.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the key trends and stats – use these to find the best profiles of past winners of each race.

Saturday 14th July 2018

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.05 - Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Won over at least 6f previously
14/16 – Placed in their last race
13/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
11/16 – Won their latest race
11/16 – Won by either a March or April foal
8/16 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
6/16 – Favourites unplaced
4/16 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/16 – Winners from stall 3
4/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
5/16 – Winning Favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
Gustav Klimt (5/6) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

1.40 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

15/16 – Won over 7f previously
15/16 – Raced 3 or more times that season
12/16 – Carried 9-3 or less in weight
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/16 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
8/16 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
8/16 – Horses from a double-figure stall that 1st, 2nd and 3rd
8/16 – Placed in their last race
4/16 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Above The Rest (12) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1
Heaven’s Guest won the race in 2014 & was second in 2016

 

2.15 - Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011     Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010    Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009   Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008   Marchand d'Or  (5/2 fav)
2007   Sakhee's Secret  (9/2)
2006   Les Arcs (10/1)
2005   Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004   Frizzante (14/1)
2003   Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002   Continent (12/1)

16 Year July Cup Betting Trends

15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/16 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
12/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Won their previous race
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
1/16 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (1999, 2001 & 2010)

 

3.20 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

14/16 – Had won over 7f or further previously
13/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
12/16 – Had 2 or more runs that season
9/16 – Unplaced in their last race
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
7/16 – Winners from stall 9 or higher
3/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning Favourites
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
Medahim (12/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 10/1

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

1.55 - John Smith´s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Won over 5f before
7/7 – Placed favourites
7/7 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
7/7 – Rated between 101 and 111
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Had only won at Handicap class before
4/7 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/7 – Won by a neck
4/7 – Won at York before
3/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Ridden by Phillip Makin
Take Cover (5/1) won the race in 2017
Out Do won the race in 2015

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

2.35 - John Smith´s Silver Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m6f ITV3

12/12 – Aged 5 or younger
12/12 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
11/12 – Won from stall 10 or lower
9/12 – Didn’t win their previous race
8/12 – Placed favourites
7/12 – Aged 4 years-old
6/12 – Had run at York before
5/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/12 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
4/12 – Luca Cumani-trained horses that finished in the top three
3/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1
Rare Rhythm (9/4) won the race in 2017

 

3.10 - John Smith´s Racing Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV3

14/14 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
10/14 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
11/14 – Had won between 2-4 times before
10/14 – Rated 90 or less
10/14 – Placed last time out
8/14 – Priced between 7/1 and 14/1
9/14 – Winning distance – ¾ or less
8/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Won by a USA-bred horse
4/14 – Had raced at York before
3/14 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 12 winners came from stall 7 or lower
5 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2 or 3
Chiefofchiefs (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

 

3.40 – 59th John Smith´s Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV3

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners.......

2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 -  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
13/16 – Came from stall 9 or higher
12/16 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
11/16 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Carried 9-3 or less
10/16 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Officially rated between 99-105
7/16 – Had run at York before
5/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Since 1970 just one winner older than 5 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11/1

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

12.45 – Bet With Ascot Heritage Handicap Cl2 5f ITV

Just 4 previous running
4/5 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1
4/5 – Carried 8-10 or more
2/5 – Aged 4 years-old
Danzeno (8/1 co-fav) won the race 12 months ago

 

1.20 - Fred Cowley MBE Memorial Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV

11/11 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/11 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
9/11 – Had won over at least a mile before
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/11 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
8/11 – Placed favourites
7/11 – Previous Group race winner
6/11 – Had won at least 4 times before
6/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Aged 4 years-old
4/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/11 – Had won a Group 1 before
Mutakayyef (7/2 fav) won the race in 2016 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 14th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.00 Newmarket : Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG 8th at 2/1 (Keen, raced wide early, tracked leader, pushed along over 3f out, ridden and weakened over 1f out)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.15 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Blue Point @ 10/3 BOG

In a 14-runner, Group 1 contest for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £283550 to the winner...

Why?

An impressive display last time out when landing the Kings Stand over 5f at Royal Ascot 25 days ago for his first win in a Group 1 contest. He semed to get stronger as the race progressed and certainly didn't look like he'd been off the track for almost 9 months!

I think he'll come on again for having had a run and the step back up to 6f looks a logical one to me and his career stats suggest he'll relish the challenge faced today, as so far his record includes...

  • 5 wins & 2 places from 9 over 6f
  • 5 wins & 2 places from 8 under jockey William Buick
  • 4 wins & 2 places from 7 on Good to Firm ground
  • 4 wins & 1 place from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins from 3 in July/August
  • 2 from 2 running 16-30 days after his last effort
  • 1 win & 1 place in fields of 12 or more runners
  • 1 from 1 this season
  • has a Gr 1 success to his name

He is trained by Charlie Appleby, whose overall record is both excellent and well-documented, so I won't bore you by repeating it, but you might not know that his record at this July meeting here at Newmarket stands at 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 17.43 pts (+45.9% ROI) profit over the last three (inc this one) years. And I'll keep this simple, but of those 38 entries...

  • those sent off at Evens to 7/1 are 9/29 (31%) for 26.43pts (+91.1%)
  • over 6/7 furlongs : 7/24 (29.2%) for 21.11pts (+88%)
  • ridden by William Buick : 4/15 (26.7%) for 8.72pts (+58.1%)
  • in fields of 12-14 runners : 5/11 (45.5%) for 23.57pts (+214.3%)

...and Appleby / Buick / July Meeting / 2016-18 / 6 to 7 furlongs / Evens to 7-1 / 12-14 runners = 3/4 (75% SR) for 15.77pts (+394.2% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Blue Point @ 10/3 BOGa price available from Bet365 & SunBets at 5.05pm on Friday with plenty of 3/1 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 13th July 2018)

The three-day 2018 Newmarket July Meeting continues on Friday (13th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As we move into the second day (Gentleman's Day) the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Cherry Hinton) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes take centre stage - did you know 15 of the last 16 Falmouth Stakes winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

 


Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two,
Friday 13th July 2018

1.50 – bet365 Handicap (Silver Bunbury Cup) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV

Only three previous runnings
Parfait win the race in 2017
Swift Approval won the race in 2016
2 of the last 3 winners were aged 4 years-old
All three previous winners carried 9-4 or more in weight
2 winning favourites

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

14/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
14/14 – Had raced at least twice before
13/14 – Foaled in Feb (6) or March (6)
13/14 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Won by a UK-based yard
9/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
9/14 – Had won over 6f before
8/14 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by the Hannon team
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc last 2)
1/14 – Drawn in stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
Clemmie (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017

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3.00 - bet354 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

10/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
9/11 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
8/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
8/11 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/11 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
5/11 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including last 4 of last 5 runnings)
3/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/1
Marzouq (6/1) won the race in 2017

3.35 - Qipco Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

16/16 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
15/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/16– Won over at least 1 mile previously
12/16 – Won from stall 5 or lower
12/16 – Had 2+ runs that season
11/16 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
9/16 – Favourites placed
6/16 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
6/16 – Favourites  that won (1 joint)
5/16 – Previous Group One winners
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 4)
2/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 2 runnings)
2/16 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1
Roly Poly (6/4 fav) won the race in 2017

 



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Stat of the Day, 13th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.10 Epsom : Related @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 10/3 (In rear, outpaced over 3f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, took 4th near finish, never nearer)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £49800 to the winner...

Why?

Just the fifth career start for this potentially very smart 3 yr old Colt who has 3 wins and a runner-up finish so far from his four previous outings. He made his turf debut LTO 13 days ago, winning a similar Class 2 contest on Good to Firm ground over slightly further than today at York and I was waiting for him to reappear today : the fact that Frankie Dettori now jumps on board is an added bonus.

He's trained by John Gosden whose record on the July track is impressive with 54 winners from 270 (20% SR) for 130.5pts (+48.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2012 season, from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 30/141 (21.3%) for 44.5pts (+31.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 28/128 (21.9%) for 79.7pts (+62.3%)
  • in 3yo only races : 18/96 (18.8%) for 32.4pts (+33.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/32 (25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%)
  • tilting at prizes worth £25k to £50k : 7/21 (33,3%) for 45pts (+214.3%)
  • and with horses rated (OR) in the narrow 99-104 banding : 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.3pts (+110.9%)

And more generally away from this particular track, Mr Gosden's Flat (turf) runners who were LTO winners have gone on to win again on 144 of 470 (30.6% SR) occasions since the start of the 2014 season, clocking up profits of 156.4pts (+33.3% ROI) for those backing all of them. Those not wishing to blanket bet them might prefer one or more of the following angles...

  • on Good to Firm ground : 51/162 (31.5%) for 61.6pts (+38%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 57/149 (38.3%) for 51.5pts (+34.6%)
  • competing for a prize worth £30k to £100k : 39/126 (31%) for 118.7pts (+94.2%)
  • over trips of 9 to 10.5 furlongs : 50/125 (40%) for 59.6pts (+47.7%)
  • racing after a break of less than 3 weeks : 33/120 (27.5%) for 60.5pts (+50.4%)
  • and in July : 18/49 936.7%) for 61.5pts (+38.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOGa price available from Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.10pm on Thursday with plenty of 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Newmarket July Meeting Trends: DAY ONE (Thurs 12th July 2018)

The three-day 2018 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (12th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

On day one the Group Two July Stakes and Princess of Wales's Stakes are the key contests - did you know that a 4 year-old has won 8 of the last 11 Princess Of Wales's Stakes?  

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

 


Newmarket July Meeting - Day One,
Thursday 12th July 2018

 

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

16/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
14/16 – Failed to win last time out
14/16 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
11/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
10/16 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/16 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/16 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
9/16 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 7 runnings)
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2
Raheen House (7/2) won the race in 2017

 

2.25 - Arqana July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

15/16 – Placed in their last run
15/16 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
13/16 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
12/16 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
10/16 – Won their last race
9/16 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
6/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
1/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 4 winners in the race
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2
Cardsharp (8/1) won the race in 2017

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.00 – Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
12/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/12 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/12 – Had won no more than 3 times before
10/12 – Had won over 6f before
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
9/12 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/12 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/12 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
7/12 – Finished unplaced last time out
3/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/12 – Ridden by David Probert
0/12 – Winning favourites
Ekhiyaar (13/2) won the race in 2017

 

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Arqana Racing Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

14/16 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 8 of last 11)
14/16 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/16 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
13/16 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
11/16 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/16 – Unplaced in their previous race
9/16 – Favourites that were placed
8/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
Big Orange won the race in 2015 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Hawkbill (7/2) won the race in 2017

 



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Stat of the Day, 12th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

5.55 Kempton : Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well and held towards finish, beaten by a neck)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Epsom :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Related @ 7/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Good To Firm ground worth £7116 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding is actually 0 from 7 this year, but that doesn't deter me from backing a horse that wouldn't be winning out of turn after finishing 432 inside the past 40 days, all over today's 6f trip on Good to Firm ground, including (3rd place) one in a higher grade than this. This mini sequence culminated when only failing by a neck behind the in-form Hackney Road 12 days ago.

My interested was first raised when I saw Paul Midgely's name next to it, as Paul is one of the trainers in a little microsystem of mine that I've catchily titled "Late Summer Handicaps". Maybe not the best of titles, but it does what it says on the tin!

Basically...Paul Midgely + UK Flat Handicaps + Class 3-6 + July-September = 49/329 (14.9% SR) for 105.5pts (+32.1% ROI) since the start of the 2014 campaign. You could, of course back them all blindly (there were 115 bets last summer), but if you'd prefer to be more selective, here are some angles that are both profitable and relevant to this race...

  • Over 5-6 furlongs : 49/303 (16.2%) for 131.5pts (+43.4%)
  • Males : 43/249 (17.3%) for 160.9pts (+64.6%)
  • Competing for less than £8k : 42/277 (15.2%) for 102.7pts (+37.1%)
  • 4-10 yr olds : 41/223 (18.4%) for 157.7pts (+70.7%)
  • In 2017 : 20/115 (17.4%) for 85.4pts (+74.3%)
  • Over 6 furlongs : 20/103 (19.4%) for 86pts (+83.5%)
  • After just 11-15 days rest : 19/95 (20%) for 128.8pts (+135.6%)
  • On Good to Firm ground : 17/109 (15.6%) for 45.2pts (+41.5%)

Obviously all of the above apply, but start to put them together and it's interesting (to me, anyway!) to find that 4-10 yr old males racing over 6f for less than £8k prize money are 17 from 68 (25% SR) for 101.4pts (+149.1% ROI) and these are the ones to focus one from the micro after shedding some 261 bets to make just 4.1pts less profit.

If you used this as your starting point for a bet, you'd have had...

  • 11 winners from 34 (32.4%) for 84.6pts (+248.9%) from those rested for just 11-20 days
  • 9 winners from 34 (26.5%) for 71.1pts (+209.2%) at Class 4
  • 9 winners from 27 (33.3%) for 59.3pts (+219.6%) last year alone
  • and 5 winners from 17 (29.4%) for 63pts (+370.7%) on Good to Firm ground

We should always be wary of really small sample sizes, of course, but last year the Class 4 runners racing 11-20 days after their last run were 4 from 6 966.6% SR) for 22.1pts (+369% ROI) with a 1 from 1 record on Good To Firm!

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Related @ 7/2 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.25pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th July 2018

Tuesday's Pick was...

5.00 Pontefract :Quoteline Direct @ 4/1 BOG WON at 11/4 (Held up behind, headway on inside over 3f out, went 2nd over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, kept on to win by four lengths)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.55 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOG

In a 14-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3105 to the winner...

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding is having just his third handicap run today, having made the frame in both previous efforts.

He was a runner-up on hcp debut in mid-April despite (a) being off track for 144 days and (b) being stepped up from 6f to 1m for the first time, yet was only beaten by 0.75 lengths with the horse in 3rd, 4th and 6th all having gone on to win since.

Then 42 days later (49 days ago), he broke his duck with a win here at Kempton in this grade over course and distance, comfortably steered home to a 4 lengths success by today's jockey Adam Kirby who was riding him for the first time.

He is trained by Emma Owen, who might not be the most famous of trainers, nor does she have a huge string of horses to work with. She's also not an obvious starting point for an SotD selection as since the start of 2016, her runners have only won 9 of 184 (4.9% SR) for a loss of 71.6% (-38.9% ROI), but as ever we're not advocating blindly following a trainer, we're looking for an angle that suggests a clear MO.

And closer inspection of Emma's numbers highlights something to me, because of her 9/184 record, she's 8/63 (12.7% SR) for 5.64pts (+8.95% ROI) here at Kempton and whilst those SR & ROI figures aren't really up to SotD standard, they are certainly out of the norm for Emma's overall profile and as such are worth examining.

From that 8/63 course stat, handicappers are 8/56 (14.3% SR) for 12.64pts (+22.6% ROI) and suddenly we have something interesting to work from. Further analysis of these 56 Kempton handicappers shows...

  • 8 winners from 52 (15.4%) for 16.64pts (+32%) from male runners
  • 8 winners from 50 (16%) for 18.64pts (+37.3%) competing for prizes less than £4k
  • 8 winners from 44 (18.2%) for 24.64pts (+56%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 7 winners from 37 (18.9%) for 26.28pts (+71%) at Classes 5 & 6
  • 6 winners from 25 (24%) for 30.9pts (+123.6%) after a break of 16 to 60 days
  • 5 winners from 19 (26.3%) for 35.5pts (+186.7%) off marks (OR) of 61 to 75
  • 5 winners from 7 (71.4%) for 19.34pts (+276.3%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 19.27pts (+385.4%) ridden by Adam Kirby
  • and 2 winners from 5 (40%) for 14.6pts (+292%) who also won last time out

I accept/appreciate that the 56 runners aren't the biggest sample size, but the numbers above do suggest that this is the kind of race Emma's horses do best in and from the above...Class 5/6 males racing over 6f to 1m for less than £4k prize money off a break of 6 to 60 days are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 40.3pts (+175.1% ROI) and these include...

  • off marks of 61-75 : 5/14 (35.7%) for 40.48pts (+289.1%)
  • sub 5/1 shots : 4/5 (80%) for 15.98pts (+319.6%)
  • under Adam Kirby : 3/4 (75%) for 20.27pts (+506.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 2/3 (66.6%) for 16.6pts (+553.3%)

And finally, as it looks like our pick will go off as favourite today and we know that backing favs can be a costly procedure, it's worth knowing that since 2011 that Adam Kirby is 169/463 (36.5% SR) for 82.8pts (+17.9% ROI) on Class 6 favourites, winning 22 of 54 (40.7%) for 23.5pts (+43.5%) over a 1m trip!

...all of which points to...a 1pt win bet on Divine Messenger @ 9/4 BOGwhich was widely (over a dozen firms) available at 1.20am on Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.55 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.50 Wolverhampton : My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG 8th at 11/4 (Led until over 2f out, soon lost place and hastily retreated)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Quoteline Direct @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG***

In a 9-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

Over the last nine months, this 5 yr old gelding has raced seven times, making the frame on five occasions and going on to to win twice, including a win here at Ponty over course and distance eight days ago when last seen. A fairly quick turnaround might be the key to maintaining his form as his run prior to that win was nine days earlier.

He's trained by Micky Hammond, who since 2010 has saddled 24 winners at this track and although it has needed 247 runners (9.7% SR) to get there, backing all of them has actually been quite profitable with 55.3pts equating to some 22.4% of stakes.

The strike rate and ROI have improved in recent years, however and since the start of last season, Micky has had 7 winners from 39 (18% SR) here for profits of 36.1pts (+92.7% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • at Class 5 : 6/29 (20.7%) for 43.9pts (+151.3%)
  • more than 1 week but less than 4 weeks rest : 6/22 (27.3%) for 41.7pts (+189.6%)
  • over trips of a mile to a mile and a half : 5/22 (22.7%) for 42.1pts (+191.4%)
  • those finishing in the first three home LTO : 5/16 (31.25%) for 35.1pts (+219.1%)
  • and on Good to Firm ground : 3/11 (27.3%) for 3.38pts (+30.7%)...

...whilst Class 5 runners racing over trips of a mile to a mile and a half after finishing in the first three home LTO more than 1 week but less than 4 weeks earlier are 3 from 6 (50% SR) for profits of 34pts at an ROI of 566.7% with a 1 from 1 record on Good to Firm ground acquired by Quoteline Direct LTO!

More generally, horses racing at Classes 4 to 6 at the same class as an LTO C&D success by a head to 15 lengths at odds of 6/4 to 16/1 in the previous 10 days are 181/516 (35.1% SR) for 119.9pts (+23.2% ROI) since the start of 2013 (trust me, it's really not as complicated in practice as it looks in print!) and of these 516...

  • those now priced at 13/2 and shorter are 177/465 (38.1%) for 129.1pts (+27.8%)
  • males are 141/400 (35.3%) for 98pts (+24.5%)
  • on the Flat : 55/164 (33.5%) for 39.6pts (+24.2%)
  • and at Class 5 : 60/156 (38.5%) for 56.1pts (+35.9%)

...from which we get Class 5 males at 13/2 and shorter on the Flat winning 16 of 35 (44.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+67.5% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Quoteline Direct @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG***which was available from Bet365 & Betway respectively at 6.00pm on Monday evening (I'll be using 4/1 for my records, of course). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

PLEASE NOTE : WEDNESDAY'S SELECTION WON'T APPEAR UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING!

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th July 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

8.10 Nottingham : Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 6/4 (Keen in touch, ridden and headway 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOG

In a 10-runner Class 5 A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

Well, initially, we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding making his 9th start in 5 months, having won three and been a runner-up in three of the previous eight, culminating in a win at this class & distance on the turf at Doncaster last time ago, just nine days ago.

So, that ticks the horse form box! As for the trainer, we can tick that off too. Ian Williams' runners are 7 from 26 (26.9% SR) over the last fortnight and 4 from 16 (25%) over the past 7 days, so that's another positive.

Plus, since the start of 2014, Ian's Flat/AW LTO winners running 1-10 days later are 18 from 43 (41.9% SR) for 31.7pts (+73.8% ROI), from which those running at the same Class & distance as LTO are 8/14 (57.1% SR) for 13.3pts (+95.2% ROI).

As for the breeding, this one is by Sea The Stars, who was an excellent performer himself 9/10 years ago, even winning the Derby over today's trip, but it's interesting to see that despite his turf pedigree that his offspring are 25 from 88 (28.4% SR) for 32.1pts (+36.4% ROI) on Tapeta since the start of 2015, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 17/58 (29.3%) for 12.6pts (+21.7%)
  • over 10-12.5 furlongs : 10/38 (26.3%) for 29.6pts (+78%)
  • and Class 5 runners over 10-12.5f are 6/26 (23.1%) for 10.3pts (+39.5%)

...plus those running in Tapeta handicaps who didn't run on the same surface last time out are 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 15.9pts at an ROI of 45.4 % and these include...

  • after less than three weeks rest : 4/18 (22.2%) for 18.5pts (+102.8%)
  • LTO winners : 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.28pts (+242.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on My Fantasea @ 10/3 BOGwhich was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.30pm on Sunday afternoon. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th July 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.30 Sandown : Euginio @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/4 (Tracked leader, pushed along 3f out, lost 2nd over 1f out, chased leaders, held when not much room and no extra towards finish, beaten by less than a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

8.10 Nottingham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOG

In a 7-runner Class 5 Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2½f on Good To Firm ground worth £3881 to the winner...

Why?

This 3yr old gelding has won two of his last six runs and his sole turf success came two starts ago in another small field Class 5 handicap on good to firm ground, so conditions won't be alien to him.

Despite not managing to land SotD's 4th winner on the bounce yesterday, I've no hesitation is trusting Silvestre de Sousa with the reins again today. I mentioned yesterday that he was riding well and although he couldn't get Euginio up for us, he did have two more winners on the day.

Like Sandown, Nottingham has been another good venue for this jockey in recent years, where he has won 30 of 158 races (19% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.2% ROI) profit since the start of the 2014 season and with today's race in mind, that record includes...

  • in fields of 5-11 runners : 27/115 (23.5%) for 36.4pts (+31.6%)
  • in handicaps : 18/107 (16.8%) for 16.3pts (+15.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/86 (18.6%) for 4.6pts (+5.3%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/56 (17.9%) for 6.8pts (+12.2%)
  • and over trips of 10/10.5f : 7/27 (25.9%) for 37.6pts (+139.3%)

Now, although he doesn't get to ride for today's trainer Richard Fahey too often, it's certainly not because he doesn't win on that yard's horses. In fact he is 4 from 11 (36.4%) for 12.56pts (+114.2%) on them since the start of last season with a 4/6 (66.6%) record in handicaps that has produced 17.56pts profit at an ROI of 292.7%!

And finally, we really should consider Mr Fahey's own recent record at this venue and I'm happy to report that it's also very good with 28 winners from 150 since the start of the 2014 season.

This 18.7% strike rate has rewarded followers with profits of 50.7pts at a healthy ROI of 33.8% with his handicappers winning 19 of 104 (18.3%) for 47.4pts (+45.5%) and it is these 104 'cappers I want to focus on, because under today's conditions, they are...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 55pts (+80.8%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 10/52 (19.2%) for 42pts (+80.7%) as 3 yr olds
  • 6/44 (13.6%) for 37.5pts (+85.3%) when beaten by 5 to 30 lengths LTO
  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 24.5pts (+74.1%) in 3yo races
  • 7/30 (23.3%) for 36.2pts (+120.5%) racing 6-15 days after their last run
  • and 9/24 (37.5%) for 14.7pts (+61.4%) when sent off at odds of 2/1 to 9/2

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ventura Gold @ 4/1 BOGwhich was available from BetVictor & SkyBet at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.10 Nottingham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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