Previews, tips and trends for major horse racing fixtures across the UK. Detailed day-by-day reports and info on horses, races, courses, events and more.

Cheltenham TV Trends: Sunday 18th Nov 2018

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the final day of their three-day November Meeting.

As always we’ll have all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle - use these to find the best profiles of past winners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered as The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

15/16 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/16 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Raced (hurdles or fences) at Cheltenham previously
13/16 – Favourites placed
13/16 – Raced just once previously over fences
10/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
10/16 – Won their latest race
10/16 – Won previously over fences
9/16 – Ran in the Arkle Chase at the Festival later that season (1 won, Azertyuiop, 2002)
9/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (inc last 6 of last 10 years)
9/16 – Favourites that won
7/16 – Won by a French bred
4/16 – Won by Irish bred
4/16 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
4/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won by a German bred
3/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Fell in the Arkle Chase later that season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/8

2.25 – Shloer Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

9 previous runnings
8/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Officially rated 150+
7/9 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/9 – Won on seasonal reappearance
7/9 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/9 – Aged 7 or older
7/9 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
6/9 – Failed to win last time out
6/9 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
5/9 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/9 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
4/9 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/9 – Favourites that won
3/9 – German bred
3/9 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Fox Norton won the 2016 and 2017 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/16 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
14/16 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
13/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/16 – Officially rated 140 or higher
11/16 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
11/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had run at Cheltenham before
10/16 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/16 –  Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/16 – Carried 11-4 or more
7/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/16 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Winning favourites
1/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
6 of the last 9 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

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3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/14 – Won last time out
12/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top three
10/14 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
8/14 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/14 – Had won a NH Flat race before
8/14 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Aged 4 years-old
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Won by the Nicholls stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

 

 

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Breeders’ Cup 2018: The Review

Far and away the biggest team of European runners ever assembled for a Breeders' Cup was flown in for the 2018 renewal, the 35th overall. But was it quality or just quantity in Louisville, Kentucky? And how did the betting go? All is revealed in what follows...

The preamble

A team of nearly fifty Euro entries, almost exclusively in the turf races, but with three notable runners in the biggest race of all, the Breeders' Cup Classic, convened on the sodden Churchill Downs track in the days running up to last weekend. Select horses from the powerhouse stables of Gosden and Stoute were supported by less fashionable yards as well as, of course, a phalanx from Ballydoyle.

The first blow was dealt when Sir Michael Stoute's Crystal Ocean was found to be lame and did not fly; this after the same trainer's well fancied Ulysses was forced to miss last year's event in a late scratching.

The weather was fair when I landed a week ago last Sunday, but the forecast was foul. Indeed, it was predicted to be Marti Pellow territory: Wet Wet Wet. But hope sprang eternal - after all, in Louisville, they have a saying: "If you don't like the weather, just wait five minutes". Changeable doesn't do it justice.

Alas, on this occasion the forecast was spot on. Two full days of torrential teeming incessant, very wet, rain. The turf track had been loose on top on Monday morning when I visited, but you could hear the hooves rattling underneath. That gave early hope to it not being a bog, as did the track superintendent's insistence that the nature of the soil, allied to large pipes embedded within, allow for very fast drainage. I'd say he had to be at least partly correct because, as puddles appeared on the main track, the turf seemed to absorb all that nature could precipitate upon it.

Meanwhile, I was slaving over my laptop on this year's Breeders' Cup Compendium. It may seem like it's all gravy when I head over for these BC jaunts, but the reality is that I spend around six hours a day hunched over a keyboard, with digital and printed Daily Racing Forms to hand alongside multiple other form indicators (Equibase, Timeform US, Racing Post, breederscup.com - an incredible resource, and youtube).

Don't get me wrong, I'm not asking for sympathy: it's one of the rare, largely uninterrupted, weeks in the year when I can get my head down and do some proper form study. And the production of the Compendium keeps me honest as well as recording and ordering my thoughts.

If you haven't seen it before, here is a link to download and take a look at it. As you probably know, I made it available for free to Gold subscribers.

Anyway, all work and no play makes every man a dull boy, so the evenings were reserved for beer and banter with a large Euro crowd, convened in the Galt House Hotel, not quite Louisville's only accommodations, but certainly its largest. No names here, but it was a most enjoyable social week in support of the daytime slog and graft. And, let's face it, even the hardest day with nose touching form sheets is better than many people's better days in their chosen professions: I'm certainly not complaining.

Friday

And so to the racing. Although still an uneven distribution to the weekend, the addition of a juvenile sprint to Friday's card made for a five-nine race split across the two days. And that new race, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, was the opener, after a beautifully delivered rendition of the Star Spangled Banner.

The well named Bulletin fired from the gates to record an all the way success in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

The well named Bulletin fired from the gates to record an all the way success in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Plenty of Euro interest, and I'd predicted a burn up on the front end between a couple of very fast US horses, Shang Shang Shang and Bulletin. But the late scratching of Shang3 meant Bulletin would face far less pace contention and, as it turned out, the speed held up. In fairness, Bulletin, having just his second lifetime start, was absolutely electric from the gate, and catapulted to an early lead he never relinquished.

As well as the absent Shang Shang Shang, he was further assisted by the normally rapid-running Soldier's Call (top left, grey silks) fluffing his opening line.

Pletcher's 'bullet' was impressive and came home from his closest early pace pursuant, Chelsea Cloisters, with So Perfect a never nearer third and best of the Europeans.

Word is that Bulletin might head over for Royal Ascot next June; it would be some sight to see him propelled at the head of the King's Stand field taunting his rivals to 'catch me if you can'.

If Bulletin was a sight to behold, there were few sights all weekend as beholdable (is that a word?!) as the winner of the Juvenile Fillies' Turf, Friday's second race. The buzz was all about a Chad Brown filly who'd run in the Miss Grillo last time: Chad runs his best there and then brings them here, a feat he'd reprised with three of his four winners of the race (and it would have been four but for Rushing Fall not being ready for last year's Miss Grillo).

This time, he saddled Newspaperofrecord, and she arrived with the biggest Beyer speed figure of any of the Brown fillies to line up in the JFT. She was a front runner who looked set for an uncontested lead, and she was proven on sodden ground. She did not disappoint.

Although a little keen early, Newspaperofrecord sauntered away from a strong field to win by six and three-quarter respectful lengths, eased down. Check this out if you haven't seen it already...

 

Kevin Ryan's East, unbeaten in two coming into this, ran a remarkable race to finish second. She was fully seventeen lengths behind the winner at the first call before passing just about everyone bar the winner for a most honorable silver medal. But this was all about the daughter of Lope De Vega, bought in Newmarket and potentially heading there for the 1000 Guineas next spring. While that remains a distant prospect at best, she is worth following wherever she goes: this is a very, very special filly.

Two turf races down on 'Future Stars Friday', and still no British or Irish winner. That couldn't change in race three, the Juvenile Fillies' run on the dirt, as this side of the pond was unrepresented. In what was an open heat, Jaywalk became a third wire-to-wire winner extending her record to four out of four since a debut second.

Back on the lawn, it was finally time for a Euro victory, though not without drama. All the chat was about Anthony Van Dyck, with just about every judge I knew trumpeting his claims. I too was in the AvD camp, but none of us had to wait more than a dozen strides to know our fate. Frankly, I'm not sure there was a horse beaten sooner all weekend: he just didn't go a yard. Whether it was the ground or the effect of a huge Dewhurst run and a transatlantic flight or just the sleepy dust that seemed to affect most of the Ballydoyle team over the weekend... it all amounted to the same thing, a very early bath.

Meanwhile, William Buick had Line Of Duty much more handily positioned, his mount appearing significantly more willing, too. As they barreled down the home straight, the Godolphin colt surged into the lead, but not before veering right to left into the less marked left to right swerve of second placed Uncle Benny. Cue protracted stewards' enquiry and objection be the rider of the second. Some time later and the result was confirmed, a relieved Buick - who has had more than his share of tough luck at previous Breeders' Cups - jubilant at the outcome.

A quick line for Arthur Kitt, whose dam, Ceiling Kitty, ran on the 2012 undercard. He finished an excellent fourth having raced on the unfavoured inside down the straight; with a wider course he would have made the frame at least.

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In the Friday showpiece, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, favourite Game Winner was just that, Bob Baffert's Candy Ride colt holding the valiant charge of 40/1 Knicks Go with 66/1 Signalman back in 3rd. A few weeks previously, the second and third had finished in first and second in their prep race, at 70/1 and 10/1 respectively! There they set up a 688/1 exacta, here they rounded out a 965/1 trifecta. Woulda coulda shoulda...

 

Saturday

That tasty amuse bouche consumed, it was time for a nine course gourmet feast on Saturday. Commencing with one of the less feted contests, the Filly and Mare Sprint, this was the first - and as it transpired, only - opportunity to catch a bomb, a huge priced unconsidered winner. With what looked almost certain to be a pace meltdown, chiefly courtesy of the unrelentingly fast early Selcourt (John Sadler, going 0-for-42), things appeared set up for a closer.

Favourite Marley's Freedom was one such later runner, but so too were a couple of interesting longshots, Stormy Embrace and Shamrock Rose. Both were progressive and both had a chance to be competitive if the inefficient running of the pacers meant a slow overall time.

In one of those rare moments of clairvoyance, I happened to call this one spot on, with Shamrock Rose just prevailing in a finish of heads, at an on track price of 25.9/1. Chalon, well marked up in the Compendium, completed a 360/1 exacta, unbacked in this quarter, of course. Only a small bet for me, a tenner each way at 33's, but a very satisfactory way to kick off proceedings on the big day. And, if it was to be a slippery slope, at least we started at the top of the hill! Incidentally, Shamrock Rose was the first three-year-old to win this race, and the first of a number of stats-busters through the afternoon.

The Turf Sprint then began an almost unprecedented run of 'chalk' (top of the market) horses to win. It was Peter Miller's 7/1 third choice, Stormy Liberal, last year's winner under very different circumstances, who emerged victorious once more; but only after a duel the length of the home straight with the super game World Of Trouble, nominated as a win play in the Compendium at 6/1. Second for the win play was joined by fourth for one of the each way possibles, 20/1 Ruby Notion (sigh), the other being 7th placed Lost Treasure.

A footnote is that Stormy Liberal's last eight wins have been by a nose, 3/4L, a neck, a head, a nose, a nose, a head and a neck. This lad is some tool in a duel!

Next up, the Dirt Mile, and one of my stronger opinions on the day. City Of Light was hyper consistent and had run well in defeat over an inadequate trip on his prior start, finishing second. I backed him at 12's straight after that race, then forgot I'd done that and backed him again at 8's on 23rd October. After a raft of defections to the Sprint and Classic, the Dirt Mile cut up considerably making City Of Light still just about playable at the 7/2 available. He was a convincing winner, returning just better than 5/2 on track, and easily turning away Catalina Cruiser, John Sadler's latest BC shortie (odds on) which extended that trainer's sorry record to 0-for-43 at the Breeders' Cup.

In the Filly and Mare Turf, I was all over Wild Illusion. The Godolphin filly had had an excellent season and she came here proven at the trip and on the ground (though there remained some debate about what the state of the turf track actually was). At the furlong pole, Buick and Wild Illusion looked to have the race in safe keeping; but then came the thriving Sistercharlie, dismissed in the Compendium as unsuited to the turf state, to run her down in the shadow of the post, scoring a shade cosily.

Sistercharlie, another turf filly from the Chad Brown barn, was winning her fourth Grade 1 of the season, from five starts, hence her second favourite status.

The Sprint came next, and trainer Peter Miller was looking for an unprecedented double double, having won the last two runnings of the Turf Sprint with Stormy Liberal and last year's renewal of this race with his again entered Roy H. The Compendium was in search of value - as always - and landed on 9/1 Whitmore, who looked to have a chance for a ground-saving rail trip akin to that which bagged him the G1 Forego previously, beating a certain City Of Light. It panned out exactly as I thought, except that Roy H was just too good; in fact, he was exceptional, cantering into the stretch run despite a searing opening quarter in 21.35. From there, it was a matter of how far, three-and-a-quarter lengths the official margin.

Miller's remarkable double-double is one of the training feats in Breeders' Cup history, all the more astonishing given his yard was caught up in the California wildfires last December.

Then came the Mile, a race where the French-trained Polydream looked a very solid favourite... until being scratched by the Churchill Downs vet. In what proved a tart episode for Freddy Head, famous for his exploits in the same race with the wonderful Goldikova, the master entraineur was informed by the local horse doctor that his filly was lame. Head was naturally resistant, explaining that she simply has an awkward gait at the trot, and that in a gallop there was no such issue.

Rulez is rulez hereabouts, however, and the ante-post jolly was scratched from the race at the eleventh hour, regardless of impressing work watchers all week with her fluency over the turf oval. As an outsider looking in, it was a bizarre decision; heaven only knows how frustrating and distressing it must have been for connections.

There was some justice in what followed, though not for John Sadler, whose Catapult was run down by Sir Michael Stoute's stat-busting Expert Eye. Finally, gloriously, the 0-for-62 losing run which British- and Irish-trained runners in this race had endured since 1995 was ended. And it was ended by a magnificent, typical, final furlong Frankie flourish, urging the three-year-old Acclamation colt into the lead within the heat and light of the finish line cameras. Compendium followers had a little place joy as Analyze It hung tough for third, with fellow e/w pick, Next Shares, still running... though readers would have been completely put off Expert Eye by my write up which was dismissive for a number of, in the event, unfounded reasons, price excepted.

Poor Sadler will have been wondering what he had to do to get a Breeders' Cup win, rolling 0-for-44 now after this latest heartbreak.

Onto the home straight, and next up was the Breeders' Cup Distaff, once horrendously named "the Ladies' Classic". Favourite Monomoy Girl was a three-year-old who had won the Kentucky Oaks earlier in the season en route to accumulating a perfect six out of six races, in terms of first past the post at least. She was 'taken down' last time for wandering across the track and causing interference there, but showed no such errancy on this occasion as she overcame a wide berth to see it out from yet another Chad Brown filly, Wow Cat.

It was close but no cigar for Compendium backers, 16/1 Blue Prize running very well but getting collared on the line for third. Some firms paid four places on the race, but not the one I used.

Two races to go, and for many the penultimate event, the Turf, was the meeting highlight. Queen Enable was laying her long unbeaten record on the line, bidding not just to add to her Oaks, Yorkshire Oaks and dual Arcs but also to overcome the 0-from-8 reigning Arc winner hoodoo in this race. Given another masterful race by Frankie, she was made to work all the way to the line by the progressive and high class O'Brien filly, Magical, eventually eking out a three-quarter length verdict. The story of these classy fillies is better illustrated by the 'different parish' nine length gap back to the third placed horse, the clear play being to mark up the second's effort rather than to mark down that of the winner. You can watch the race again below.

A nice 12/1 exacta was flagged for Compendium followers. Schweet.

It was super stuff and, along with Newspaperofrecord, one of the clear highlights of the weekend for me.

Enable really is a tremendous race mare, John Gosden a masterful trainer, and Frankie Dettori a peerless turf rider. Whether she comes back again next year remains to be seen but, regardless, she has given us some terrific memories already.

Finally it was time for the Classic, the ninth of nine Championship races, and the most valuable of them all. Britain and Ireland had three entries - Roaring Lion, Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn - and, one way or another, a case could be made for each (though I struggled to make one for the first named).

In what was a fasinating wagering puzzle, pitting three-year-olds against older, turf horses against dirt horses, sprinters against milers against ten furlong horses, west coast against east coast against Europe, I was clear on only one thing: I wanted to be against the John Sadler-trained favourite, Accelerate.

As with last year's winner, Gun Runner, he came into the race with an impressive string of 1's but also with a raft of questions to answer. As with last year's winner, Gun Runner, I wanted to be against him. And, as with last year's winner, Gun Runner, he proved my reservations wrong with a highly impressive performance.

In truth, he was a terrible price: drawn 14 of 14, beaten on his only race outside California, beaten in both starts in double-figure fields, a slow starter in his prior two races, and having his saddle adjusted by a man who was now 0-for-44 at this event.

Well, fair play to John Sadler, and fair play to Accelerate, because this fellow put up some effort to get it done from 'out there' on the track and, presumably, to save Sadler from the men in white coats and the funny farm. He's now 1-from-45 which will doubtless read a million times better than 0-from-45.

In behind, Roaring Lion hated the kickback and was a long last, beaten after half a mile; Mendelssohn did the Mendelssohn thing and ran hard from the front before fading - he'll be more interesting in the nine furlong Pegasus in January where they'll surely adopt the same tactic; and Thunder Snow ran a gallant race in third, rewarding each way support for Compendium followers. Yoshida, the other each way play, was fourth and might have won with a slightly less exaggerated waiting ride - judge for yourself, he's in the white colours from stall 10.

Highlights

In what was another absorbing and exciting Breeders' Cup episode on its return to Churchill Downs for the first time since 2011, a couple of grass fillies stood out for me: the first an emergent champion, the second an undisputed queen of her domain, the turf track.

Newpaperofrecord, purchased from Newmarket's Book 1 sale last October for a realtively reasonable 200,000 guineas, is by Lope De Vega, and she might be the best filly seen in America since... well, since the same trainer's Lady Eli at least. But, unlike that mare, she has a European pedigree which offers the faint prospect that she could campaign on the Guineas trail here in the spring. While that remains unlikely, she is one worth following whether you're a regular spectator of US racing or not. Class is class.

And what more is there to say about Enable? She did most of her work establishing herself as the star filly she undoubtedly is last year. This term, an interrupted campaign meant she'd had little more than a jog around Kempton (albeit brushing aside Crystal Ocean in receipt of weight) prior to her second Arc. But here she became the first Arc-BC Turf winner in the same season, and she did it by demonstrating both grit and class. Special mention to Magical, who was very well fancied by connections and who ran her best race yet to make a spectacle of things.

This was a trends-busting renewal:

- 3yo's were 0 from 31 in the Filly and Mare Sprint. They are now 1 from 34!
- British- and Irish-trained Mile runners were 0 from 62 since 1995. They are now 1 from 70!
- Reigning Arc winners were 0 from 8 in the Turf. They are now 1 from 9.
- And John Sadler was 0 from 41 at Breeders' Cups. He's now 1 from 45!

Well done to all, and here's looking forward to next year and a return to the Sunshine State: Breeders' Cup 36 will be hosted by Santa Anita Park in California. Be there if you can get there!

Matt

Breeders’ Cup Guide 2018: 12 races complete

STOP PRESS: THE COMPENDIUM IS NOW COMPLETE!

You can download the report for no charge right here.

Good luck!

Matt

Gold Subscribers: version 0.4 available now

The latest version of the Breeders' Cup Compendium, including finalised trends grids, and four completed races, is online now.

The races I've completed are:

- Juvenile Fillies

- Juvenile

- Dirt Mile

- Distaff

I am waiting on the weather here before looking at the turf races.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE LATEST VERSION >>>

Gold Subscribers: Get Breeders’ Cup Compendium *free*

This year, as a thank you to Gold subscribers, I'm giving away my Breeders' Cup Compendium.

Regular readers will know that this normally sells for £15, and that it is delivered in instalments. The current version has the trends, trends grids, links to review videos on the Breeders' Cup website, and draft pace (to be reviewed Tuesday) complete.

As the week wears on, there will be further iterations to include previews of the races, completed colour-coded grids, and the horses I'm backing.

You can download version 0.3, the first public version, from this link.

Breeders’ Cup 2018: Saturday Race Trends

After Future Stars Friday it is the turn of the seniors on Saturday, with nine Breeders' Cup races culminating in the $6,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic.

Below are some race trends which may help separate those with better chances than their current odds imply...

4.00pm GMT Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Eleven renewals to date and some strong patterns emerging.

  • Age: 4-6; 5-4; 6-1 (3yo's 0 from 30 to date, incl 11/10 fav in ’17, unplaced; last 10 winners all 4 or 5 yo)
  • 10/11 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time (not ’17 winner)
  • 8/11 won at 7f; 4/11 2+ wins at 7f
  • 9/11 won or were 2nd in a G1 (2017 winner 2nd 7f G1 2 years earlier!)
  • TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f) – Golden Mischief/Chalon/Vertical Oak closer 1-2-3 in '18
  • PID Masters also key race – Hotshot Anna won by 4 ½ lengths this year
  • Surface switch (synth or turf to dirt) : 7/11 winners
  • Fav 3/11, 2nd fav 2/11, 3rd fav 0/11. 6/11 4th or lower in the betting

4.38pm GMT Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

A race that feels like it should have a greater European presence, it has been largely overlooked by the raiders thus far.

  • 8/10 were already distance winners (check for specific 5½f distance form)
  • Age 3-1; 4-4; 5-3; 6-1; 8-1 (all largely in line with representation)
  • 8/10 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out (not ’17 winner)
  • 8/10 had 99+ Beyer; 10/10 96+ Beyer
  • 9/10 had 4+ starts in year
  • 9/10 had a 28+ day layoff (’17 winner off for 147 days!)
  • 10/10 placed in Graded Stakes (6/10 WON Graded Stakes)
  • Europeans 0 from 9 so far (small sample, can’t be dogmatic)
  • Favourite is 4/10

5.16pm GMT Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

The twelfth running of a race which has somewhat diluted the quality of the Sprint and the Classic, being as it an intermediate distance. Nevertheless, it looks a strong field this time and the trends are firming up:

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  • 10/11 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (’17 winner 2nd in G3 LTO)
  • All 11 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races
  • 8/11 had 5+ runs in the year, 7/11 had 6+ runs in year (’17 winner: 9 runs)
  • Seasonal run breakdown: 3-2/4-1/5-1/6-2/8-2/9-2/10-1
  • Layoff: 10/11 27-42 days
  • 7/11 'turned back' in distance (2/4 exceptions were Goldencents) [may not favour ‘turn back’ around a one turn mile such as CD]
  • Top 3 favourites: Fav 2/11; 2nd fav 2/11; 3rd fav 1/11 [6/11 outside top 3 in betting]
  • Age 3-3/4-6/5-1/6-1 = 9/11 3 or 4yo (8/11 4yo+)
  • 10/11 had won a Graded Stakes

6.04pm GMT Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

This will be the 20th edition of the Filly and Mare Turf, a race where the distance has flexed to suit the venue. Here at Churchill Downs it is run over 1m3f.

  • US 11 Europe 8
  • 8/8 US winners 1st/2nd LTO; 2/3 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/8 Euro 1st LTO!
  • Layoff: US/import 10/11 35 days or less; Euro, anything goes!
  • Age: 3: 5 (all Euro, including 2016 & 2017 winners); 4: 8; 5: 4; 6+: 1
  • US have won 5 of last 8 and 7 of last 11
  • 17/19 had 4-7 runs during the season (other 2 had 3 starts, incl 2014 winner)
  • 8 of 11 US winners had a race at Keeneland that season
  • US 3 Euro 1 at CD. Euro at least 2nd in 3 of 4, at least 3rd in all four

6.46pm GMT Breeders' Cup Sprint

One of the original Cup races, there are 34 previous versions from which to elicit patterns and profiles. Here are some key Sprint pointers:

  • Since 2007, the BC Sprint winners came into the race with a combined 68/132 lifetime win record (52%). ’17 winner Roy H ‘only’ 5/16
  • Last 24 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
  • 32/34 won a G1-3 that season
  • 1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle
  • 19 of the last 25 had 2+ 6f wins that season
  • 12 of the last 20 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners
  • 27/34 had 5+ seasonal races (5/7 exceptions were trained by Bob Baffert), but 11 of last 14 had 5 or fewer seasonal starts
  • 18 of last 24 winners showed a bullet workout (not ’17 winner, Roy H)
  • Highest average exacta payoff of ALL BC races
  • Highest average win payoff of ALL BC races
  • Bob Baffert is the King of the Layoff/lightly raced runner

7.36pm GMT Breeders' Cup Mile

Another of the original cluster of Breeders' Cup races, this has been a shocker for Britain and Ireland. Maybe this will be our year...

  • The last 16 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
  • 15/16 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exception, Karakontie 2014)
  • Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
  • 15 of the last 22 were US winners; other 7 all French-trained (UK/Ire 0 for 62 since 1995)
  • Only Goldikova (x3) and Karakontie have stemmed US dominance since 2004
  • 7/9 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 11/12 5+yo winners were US (exc Goldi #3)
  • Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win
  • 22 of the last 24 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner
  • Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 130, 1st 75 (58%), 2nd 29 (22%)
  • Thus, the last 15 BC Mile winners had a collective 80% 1-2 record at the distance
  • No front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000

8.16pm GMT Breeders' Cup Distaff

At one point called 'The Ladies' Classic', the Distaff has mercifully reverted to its initial nomenclature. This will be the 35th renewal:

  • 27/34 won by 3 or 4yo's (17 straight prior to Beholder ’16 and Forever Unbridled ‘17)
  • 17/34 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 16)
  • 33/34 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out
  • 20 of the last 27 winners ran 6-8 times in the year (’16 winner, 5 times; ’17 winner twice)
  • 24/30 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already
  • Layoff: 28/34 35 days or less ago (all since 1998, except 3 of last 4 winners)
  • 23/30 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1
  • The favourite is 14/34 (41% SR)
  • 32/34 had recorded a Beyer of 100+
  • Beldame Stakes was responsible for 4/8 CD Distaff winners

8.56pm GMT Breeders' Cup Turf

A very good event for 'Team Europe' when the Breeders' Cup has been hosted at Churchill Downs, and with arguably our deepest party ever in the race it is extremely difficult to see a home win. The challenge then is which of the raiders will claim the spoils...?

  • 23/24 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found in 2015 the exception)
  • Layoff: US 35 days or less; Euro any
  • 34/34 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/50 (inc 2016 fav, Flintshire)
  • Euro 3yo's 7; US 3yo's 2 (last one in 1989)
  • 26/34 won G1 that season (7/8 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 13/1)
  • 11/21 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (not often the 'obvious' one)
  • Arc winners are 0/6 in same season (including Golden Horn, odds on in 2015)
  • 8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning that key prep
  • 22/24 since '94 had 3-8 starts - 3-4; 4 or 5-6; 6 to 8-12 (5 of last 7 had 6-8 seasonal runs)
  • Every winner to have had at least two 1m4f runs won or was 100% ITM at the distance
  • Europe 6 (including last 4) US 2 at CD

9.44pm Breeders' Cup Classic

The showpiece event, and we're represented here by Mendelssohn, Roaring Lion and Thunder Snow, against what looks a competitive field which maybe lacks a superstar.

  • All of the last 17 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season
  • 33/34 ran 1-2-3 LTO (20 x 1st; 8 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)
  • 30/34 won a G1 that season
  • 34/34 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/31) – 3yo 12 wins; 4yo 14 wins; 5yo 8 wins.
  • 20 of last 29 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run
  • 10/11 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run
  • 9/12 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro, 1 was 2016 winner, Arrogate)
  • 20 of the last 23 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best (Arrogate massive 122 LTO in 2016, Gun Runner 115 LTO in 2017)
  • Where no distance form, check breeding for stamina credentials
  • 8/8 CD Classic winners had either won ‘on the road’ (7) or had experience of CD (4)

Champion Trainers set optimistic tone ahead of Breeders’ Cup

The champion trainers of Britain and Ireland were in upbeat and hopeful mood ahead of the Breeders’ Cup, which gets underway a week on Friday at Churchill Downs, Kentucky.

John Gosden, whose lead in the British Champion Trainer title race is already unassailable, has high hopes for superstar mare, Enable. Of the dual Arc-winning four-year-old, he said, “She was only 85% [fit] for the Arc, but she’s fully fit now. She’s fresh but she’s a filly shipping in at the end of the year. We’ll need to see how she’s travelled”.

Of the fact Enable is trying to do what numerous Arc winners, including Gosden’s Golden Horn, have previously failed to do and double up in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, the master of Clarehaven seemed largely unmoved. “Golden Horn hated the ground; they had an inch and a half of rain there [in Keeneland]. And Dancing Brave was asked to train at 10 in the morning when the sun was at its hottest. It was most unfair on him”.

There are no concerns about the track either, with Enable having won around the tight turns of Chester in her three-year-old season.

When discussing Roaring Lion’s tilt at Breeders’ Cup Classic glory, Gosden was more circumspect, insisting it is a “brave, bold decision” by Qatar Racing Ltd, the recent Queen Elizabeth II Stakes winner’s owners. “He’s not bred for the dirt, but a mile and a quarter is his trip. The challenge is not so much the surface, but racing in unfamiliar conditions a horse’s breathing can get compromised”.

Roaring Lion has reportedly come out of the race on Saturday well, and is expected to take his chance in the Classic, though he does have a second preference entry in the Turf over an extra quarter mile.

Meanwhile, Ireland’s perennial Champion Trainer, Aidan O’Brien, was looking forward to sending his biggest team yet to the Breeders’ Cup. The Ballydoyle battalion will fly out on Monday and may not be seen walking on the Churchill track until as late as Thursday morning.

O’Brien saddles impressive Cornwallis Stakes winner, Sergei Prokofiev, in the opening Juvenile Turf Sprint, and he enthused, “I was delighted with him in Newmarket. He’s a very fast horse for whom a fast pace will suit; he seems to relax better when they go quick”.

The son of Scat Daddy, whose human namesake composed an opera called The Gambler, may prove to be a pretty good bet in the Breeders’ Cup overture.

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The Coolmore ‘lads’ could have as many as three runners in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, though O’Brien sounded a note of caution about the participation of Hermosa, who may not run. However, Just Wonderful looks likely to take her chance. “She’s a classy filly, who likes to follow the pace, and quickens very well”.

Those are perfect attributes for a race in which APOB has saddled eleven runners but has yet to win.

In the boys’ equivalent, the Juvenile Turf, Anthony Van Dyck will take some beating if allowed to take his chance. O’Brien reported, “He’ll handle nice ground, and one of him or Broome will run, but both probably won’t”. Broome, he continued, “is in good form, but has had a tough enough season and we’re taking it day by day with him”.

The highly talented rogue that is Lost Treasure is being aimed at the Turf Sprint, over five and a half furlongs. He’s a horse that needs to be delivered right on the line as he has a marked tendency to pull himself up immediately after getting his nose in front, but there’s little doubting his ability.

In a race where they’re sure to go off hard, it may just fall into his lap. “He doesn’t want to be in front too long”, O’Brien confirmed with uncharacteristic understatement, “but if things fell for him he might be right there”.

‘The lads’ are triple-handed in the Mile as well, a race in which Aidan is 0 from 19 to date. It is a bit of a hex race from a British and Irish perspective, with no winner since Ridgewood Pearl in 1995. Gustav Klimt could be the main hope. “Ryan was delighted with him after Haydock [G1 Sprint Cup], and we wanted to give him another chance at a mile. He’s a well balanced horse who travels and quickens well”.

I Can Fly may also run here having been seen flashing home in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes behind Roaring Lion last weekend. Her trainer said, “She was comfortable back at a mile, and Donnacha was delighted with her. The QE II was a great run”.

Happily completes the trio, and “she’s coming to herself; there might be a little more to come. A flat mile will suit her well. We’re looking forward to her if she gets a good draw”.

In the Turf, O’Brien will probably saddle Magical. “She has had an easy enough season, coming into the autumn a fresh filly.”

Regardless of what precedes it, the final note for Ballydoyle will be struck by Mendelssohn, last year’s Juvenile Turf winner who takes his chance in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’s been preparing on the dirt this season, including when a gallant third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time. There he battled Diversify through relentless early fractions and hung impressively tough to cling on for third.

“We’ve been happy with his three run prep”, reported O’Brien, “and we think he’s progressed with each run. Ryan was very happy with him the last day and we’re looking forward to it”.

It promises to be a spectacular 35th edition, with Europe holding no fewer than 49 entries, a record. The champion trainers of Britain and Ireland will both be relishing the prospect of adding to previous Breeders’ Cup victories to crown their respective seasons.

Breeders’ Cup 2018: Friday Race Trends

Day 1, Friday, of the 2018 Breeders' Cup is all about the future. The Breeders' beaks and bigwigs have long scratched their heads about the best format for the overture to Saturday's main card and they may, finally, have hit their mark with the equivalent of Newmarket's Future Champions Day. Indeed, they're calling it 'Future Stars Friday'. Genius.

The card consists of five races, of which - notably - three are on the turf. Below are some race trends which may assist in sifting the fields.

Big kudos to Progressive Handicapping's Crushing the Cup (order it here, it's brilliant) and to the awesome trove of stats on breederscup.com, without which the below could not have been constructed.

 

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

A new race, which was run for the first time on the undercard last year, and is now afforded full Breeders’ Cup status.

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  • First four home were all Euros last year, 1st/3rd coming from the very back of the field
  • Wes Ward’s trio led then faded to 6th, 8th, 12th of 12
  • Extra half furlong and longer straight likely to suit Euro sprinters
  • Peak RPR’s of 105/110/98/104 for 1st 4 Euro’s home. Winning RPR at Del Mar:105
  • Euro 1234 and 7th ran 7-8-6-7-7 (average 7) times. US 5th, 6th, 8th ran 3-4-3 times
  • Draw: 9-5-8-7-10-11 (12 ran)
  • Run style of 1st 4: Rear, midfield, rear, midfield

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

10 renewals so far, eight of which have been won by the home team. It may be more than coincidence that Team Europe scored only on the two occasions when raceday medication was banned.

  • 7/8 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17 winner exited Jessamine
  • US 8 Euro 2 (both Euro in the two non-Lasix years)
  • 9/10 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
  • 9/10 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
  • All 10 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
  • Frontrunners 1, Prominent 5, Late runners 4 (CD: both ran prominently)
  • Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-2 / 5wks-4 / 7wks-2 (Euro 4-5wks)
  • Prior Runs: 2-5; 3-1; 4-2; 5-1; 6-1
  • 80+ Beyer – 6/8 recorded 81+ (other 2 had only 2 starts)
  • 2 Euro winners prepped in G1 races (1st, 1.5L 4th)
  • Chad Brown has trained four JFT winners (all in California) , incl. three of the last four
  • All US exacta: 5/10 All US trifecta in both CD renewals (Euro 4th both times)

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

11 iterations of the Juvenile Turf to date, and a role reversal from the fillies' equivalent, with Euro entries having the best of it so far.

  • Euro 7 US 4 (2-1 in Kentucky)
  • 2-6 runs (9/11 had 3 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-1/3-2/4-5/5-2/6-1)
  • 3/4 US won at 1m+, only 2/7 Euro won at 1m (incl ’17 winner, Mendelssohn)
  • 1st-3rd Fav 5 from 33 (11 renewals) – Mendelssohn was favourite in ‘17
  • 11/11 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner
  • 0 Front Runner winners (7 CLOSERS, 4 PROMINENT)
  • 6 of the 8 Euro winners plus Hootenanny had recorded an RPR of 110+; 2016 winner 108 LTO
  • 7/7 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won ungraded stakes; 3 of last 4 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO
  • 4/4 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
  • Euro winners 20-42 days absent (5/7 20 or 21 days); US 20, 35, 49, 68 days absent
  • Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, Oscar Performance
  • Only 4 WAYI races have produced Juv Turf winner; only ONE WAYI winner has won Juv Turf (Sum=Summer Stakes, Pil=Pilgrim, Bou=Bourbon, Cha=Champagne)

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

One of the 'founder races', the Juvenile Fillies has been run every year since inception - that's 34 times.

  • 14 of the last 16 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2, starts, ’07 and ’17)
  • Last 16, career runs: 2-2,3-6,4-5,5+-3
  • Layoff: 29/34 were running within 30 days (31/34 5 weeks off or less)
  • 27/34 (79%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. ’17 winner G1 2nd on 2nd 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
  • 18/23 fillies improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
  • 90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
  • 31/34 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
  • Favourite is 18/34 (53%), 5/8 at CD (63%)
  • 21/34 (62%) had NOT won at the distance
  • "Look beyond the obvious when the trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Like its sister race, the Juvenile has been run since the first Breeders' Cup in 1984.

  • 32/34 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
  • 17 of the last 25 winners posted a new Beyer speed figure top LTO
  • 16 of last 22 winners improved their speed figure racing at 7f+ for the first time
  • Uncoupled entries (i.e. trainers with multiple runners, not coupled for mutuel betting purposes) won in 2010, 2013 and 2015
  • 4/8 Juvenile favourites have won at Churchill Downs Breeders’ Cups
  • Champagne Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity were responsible for 5/8 CD Juvenile winners
  • American Pharoah Stakes (formerly FrontRunner/Norfolk) 0/8 at CD
  • Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2: 5 (including 3 of last 7), 3: 4, 4: 6

 

Breeders’ Cup 2018: Top Trainers

Preparing a horse for an event like the Breeders' Cup requires skill, judgement and no little luck. Some trainers seem to have an unerring knack for it, while for others the meeting is akin to a Sisyphean task.

Given the unfamiliar wagering territory the Breeders' Cup constitutes for many this side of the Atlantic, what follows is a trainer refresher...

Top Breeders' Cup Trainers: Overall Wins

The undisputed training king of the Breeders' Cup is 83-year-old D Wayne Lukas, whose 20 wins at the meeting looks set to stand as the target for at least another five years. Remarkably, Lukas is still training, and enjoyed his most recent Cup victory when Take Charge Brandi made all in the 2014 Juvenile Fillies at 61.7/1. However, he looks unlikely to have a runner this time around.

Second in the all time wins list, and bidding to close the gap on the top guy, is Bob Baffert. Baffert, 65, has 14 wins on his CV to date, including a hat-trick of Classics from 2014 to 2016. He will again have a strong hand in the showpiece event with both West Coast and McKinzie expected to line up. All 14 wins have come in dirt races.

In the bronze medal position, and vying with Baffert for second, is the master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O'Brien. He's claimed a dozen Breeders' Cup victories, ten on them on the lawn.

Now, here's one for the trivia buffs amongst you: can you name APOB's two Breeders' Cup dirt winners? Of course, everyone knows about Johannesburg, but who was the other? It was, of course (ahem), Man Of Iron in the 2009 Marathon. With little crossover between Baffert's main track runners and O'Brien's turfers, they may both narrow the differential with Lukas.

If Obie doesn't have to worry about Bob too much on the turf, he will be extremely mindful of the ascending star of Chad Brown. Brown saddled his first runner in 2008: Maram won the Juvenile Fillies Turf, setting the tone for the next decade where all but one of his ten Cup victories were achieved either on the grass or with a filly, or both. Brown will have a formidable hand to play once more, perhaps headlined by the hugely exciting unbeaten juvenile turf filly, Newspaperofrecord.

Also on ten career Breeders' Cup wins is Bill Mott, though his haul has been achieved from 95 starters (to Brown's 71), and began 21 years earlier with Theatrical in 1987. Mott was responsible for "the incomparable, invincible, unbeatable Cigar" who, after winning just two of his first 13 races, then went on an unbeaten run of 16, which included ten Grade 1's as well as the Dubai World Cup, which at that point had yet to receive G1 status. Like all other six-year-olds to attempt the feat, Cigar failed in his bid to repeat his Classic success the year after that famous line was uttered.

Mott's two chances this time look to be Channel Maker in the Turf - against a phalanx of top class Euros - and Yoshida, who had a spin in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot earlier this season, in the Classic.

Richard Mandella is one of three trainers to have saddled nine BC winners, and his performance is further praiseworthy for coming from just 42 starters, a sensational 21.43% strike rate at this most rarefied of levels. At this stage, however, it doesn't look like Mandella, trainer of triple-Cup-winning Beholder, will have a runner at the 2018 renewal.

Claude 'Shug' McGaughey and Todd Pletcher both also have nine winners. McGaughey's last Cup win was in 2005 and he looks likely to unleash interesting dark horse Code Of Honor in the Juvenile. Meanwhile, Pletcher has fired a lot of bullets - 131 at the last count - for his nonet, and will do so again, with Bulletin and Current exciting juvenile prospects on the Friday before a quieter Saturday by the look of things.

The best of the rest of the European trainers are Sir Michael Stoute, who has saddled seven winners from 39 starters; Andre Fabre, whose quintet of winners includes last year's Turf victor, Talismanic; and John Gosden, whose four wins have come from 33 runners. He's 0 from 12 since Pounced won the 2009 Juvenile Turf, and has endured some terrible luck in the interim, perhaps most notably with The Fugue (twice) and Golden Horn.

 

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Leading Breeders' Cup Trainers, by number of wins - Europeans in bold italics (statistics courtesy of breederscup.com)
Pos Wins Runs Win% Trainer
1 20 164 12.20% Lukas, D. Wayne
2 14 108 12.96% Baffert, Bob
3 12 124 9.68% O'Brien, Aidan P.
4 10 71 14.08% Brown, Chad C.
4 10 95 10.53% Mott, William I.
6 9 42 21.43% Mandella, Richard E.
6 9 63 14.29% McGaughey III, Claude R.
6 9 131 6.87% Pletcher, Todd A.
9 7 39 17.95% Stoute, Sir Michael R.
10 6 44 13.64% Asmussen, Steven M.
10 6 35 17.14% Drysdale, Neil D.
10 6 82 7.32% Frankel, Robert J.
13 5 49 10.20% Fabre, Andre
13 5 47 10.64% O'Neill, Doug F.
15 4 42 9.52% Casse, Mark E.
15 4 33 12.12% Gosden, John H. M.
15 4 31 12.90% McAnally, Ronald L.

 

Top Breeders' Cup Trainers: By Strike Rate

As impressive as the achievements of the above hall of fame are, it is worth taking stock not just of the number of wins for each trainer, but also the strike rate. As alluded to already, two trainers with nine Breeders' Cup wins apiece have got to that number by quite different means: Richard Mandella is the most selective of the top performers, winning with more than one in five of his entries; while Todd Pletcher rolls the dice most often, winning about one from every fifteen starters.

Aidan O'Brien is another man to cast his net wide, his twelve scores coming from 124 runners at a one in ten clip. Meanwhile, Sir Michael Stoute has boarded just 39 horses onto the 'plane (ignoring last year's scratch, Ulysses) for seven victories, and has the second best strike rate of any trainer with more than three Breeders' Cup wins to his name.

Chad Brown's ten winners from 71 runners (one in seven hit rate) also counts as a top class performance.

Leading Breeders' Cup Trainers, by strike rate (4+ wins) - Europeans in bold italics (statistics courtesy of breederscup.com)
Pos Wins Runs Win% Trainer
1 9 42 21.43% Mandella, Richard E.
2 7 39 17.95% Stoute, Sir Michael R. 
3 6 35 17.14% Drysdale, Neil D.
4 9 63 14.29% McGaughey III, Claude R.
5 10 71 14.08% Brown, Chad C.
6 6 44 13.64% Asmussen, Steven M.
7 14 108 12.96% Baffert, Bob
8 4 31 12.90% McAnally, Ronald L.
9 20 164 12.20% Lukas, D. Wayne
10 4 33 12.12% Gosden, John H. M. 
11 5 47 10.64% O'Neill, Doug F.
12 10 95 10.53% Mott, William I.
13 5 49 10.20% Fabre, Andre
14 12 124 9.68% O'Brien, Aidan P. 
15 4 42 9.52% Casse, Mark E.
16 6 82 7.32% Frankel, Robert J.
17 9 131 6.87% Pletcher, Todd A.

 

 

Selected Trainers' Breeders' Cup Record at Churchill Downs

The Breeders' Cup has been held at Churchill Downs eight times previously - in 2011, 2010, 2006, 2000, 1998, 1994, 1991 and 1988 - and it is worth remembering that the climate and track constitution in Kentucky is very different from a Californian setup. As such, the following are worthy of note:

- Just two of Bob Baffert's 14 victories came at Churchill, in 2011 and 1998. He has run 24 horses in Breeders' Cups at the venue (8.33%). Baffert also won with his sole starter, the peerless American Pharoah, the other time BC came to Kentucky, in Keeneland in 2015.

- Aidan O'Brien is 2/22 under the Twin Spires, both scores coming in 2011. He also recorded two victories (and a second place) from seven starters in Keeneland in 2015.

- Bill Mott has four Churchill Breeders' Cup wins to his name - two in 2011, one in 2010 and one in 1998 - from 27 starters. That's an excellent 14.8% hit rate. He was o from 4 in Keeneland, though Lea ran second in the Dirt Mile (behind the unstoppable Liam's Map).

- Todd Pletcher won three at Churchill in 2010 and two more at Keeneland in 2015. Those five came from 52 starters, at a decent rate of 9.62%.

It is worth emphasising the records of Pletcher and Mott - New York-based trainers - away from the west coast. The transit to Kentucky is shorter, the weather is more akin to east coast weather, and the one turn dirt mile is similar in that regard to Belmont, New York's monolithic main track. Their runners may be worth marking up in the Bluegrass State.

 

Other trainers to note

As I write, before the pre-entries, it is not yet known who will run what. But a trio of French trainers with identical winners and runners records are Pascal Bary, Jonathan Pease, and Freddie Head. Each has saddled three champions from eight attempts: Head of course with triple-Mile-winning Goldikova; Pease with Karakontie and Spinning World in the Mile, and Tikkanen in the Turf; and Bary with Domedriver and Six Perfections in the Mile, and Miss Alleged in the Turf.

It should be clear that the Mile is a race which has been kind to the French, but what may be less apparent is that Flaxman Holdings - the Niarchos family to you and me - have owned the four above in italics, as well as Miesque, a fifth winner for the venture in the Mile, and Main Sequence in the Turf.

If any of them nominate any of their inmates, especially in the Mile and especially if Niarchos/Flaxman-owned, they'll be worthy of at least a second look.

Matt

Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 14th Sept 2018

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Friday 14th September 2018

 

1.50 - Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f ITV4

13/15 – Never raced at Doncaster before
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
7/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Hills stable
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Music Box (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1

2.25 – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
12/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
11/15 – Won 1-2 times before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Foaled in April
6/15 – Ran at York last time
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
Heartache (6/4) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

3:00 – William Hill Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

15/15 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
10/15 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/15 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
6/15 – Ran at York last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
Time To Study (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

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3:35 – Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

15/17 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
15/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/17 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
12/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Ran at York last time out
10/17 – Previous Group race winners
10/17 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained in Ireland
Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 8th Sept 2018

Plenty going on this Saturday –  this week from Haydock, Ascot & Kempton - with the Group One Haydock Sprint Cup the feature contest on the day.....As always we've  got all the TV trends for you. Use these to find the best profiles of past winners and whittle down the runners.


Saturday 8th September 2018

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 - Read Luke Morris Blog At Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

9/9 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
9/9 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/9 – Rated between 81-89 (inc)
7/9 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
7/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
6/9 – Irish Bred
5/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Ran at either York (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites
Taxmeifyoucan (16/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/2

2.25 – Unibet Mile (Registered as The Superior Mile Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

12/14 – Won over 1m or further before
12/14 – Won 3 or more times before
11/14 – Winning distance 1 length or more
11/14 – Had won a Listed or better race before
10/14 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/14 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Had won at Haydock before
3/14 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
Ballet Concerto (8/1) won the race in 2018

3.35 - 32Red Casino Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

14/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
14/15 – Had won at least twice before
13/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/15 – Had run 4 or more times that season
13/15 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Rated 90 to 101
11/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or higher
9/15 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
8/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/15 – Ran at Haydock before
7/15 – Had run over 1m6f before
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/15 – Ran at York last time out
4/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 9/1
Sepal (11/4) won the race in 2017

4.15 - 32 Red Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

14/16 - Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
13/16 – Rated 111 or higher
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Didn’t win their previous race
12/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/16 –Had 4 or more runs that season
11/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
11/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/16 – Had won a Group race before
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/16 – Ran at Deauville (3) or York (5) last time out
7/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/16 – Had run at Haydock before (3 had won)
6/16 – Had won a Group 1 before
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Placed horse from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 9/1
Harry Angel (2/1) won the race in 2017

 

 Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

 2.45 – Cunard Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
7/7 – Had run at the course before
7/7 – Had won over 7f before
7/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
7/7 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
6/7 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
4/7 – Rated between 95-97
4/7 – Had between 4-7 wins already
3/7 – Aged 5 years-old
2/7 – Winners from stall 12
0/7 – Winning favourites
Remarkable(10/1) won the race in 2017

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3.55 - Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Rated between 84-95
6/8 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
5/8 – Had won just once before
5/8 – Horses placed from stall 10
5/8 – Returned a double-figure price
4/8 – Carried 9-0 or more
4/8 – Horses placed from stall 8
4/8 – Won last time out
4/8 – Had run at Ascot before (3 won)
3/8 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/8 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
2/8 – Winning favourites (1 co)
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat
Duke Of Bronte (16/1) won the race in 2017

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

2.05 - 188Bet September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Had won between 4-7 times before
9/12 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
7/12 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
7/12 – Had run at Kempton before
7/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/12 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
4/12 – Aged 4 years-old
4/12 – Godolphin-owned runners
4/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Winners from stall 2
3/12 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
Chemical Charge (13/8 fav) won the race in 2017

3.15 - 188Bet Extra Place Races 'London Mile' Handicap (Series Final) Cl2 1m ITV

12/12 – Had run at Kempton before
10/12 – Had won over a mile before
10/12 – Won between 3-7 times before
10/12 – Unplaced favourites
9/12 – Aged 4 years-old
8/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Returned 20/1 or bigger in the betting
5/12 – Rated between 77-85
5/12 – Horses from stall 9 that finished in the top 3
4/12 – Ran at Kempton last time out
4/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
1/12 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 14 or 16 (2 each)
Brilliant Vanguard (8/1) won the race in 2017

 

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Doncaster TV Trends: Thursday 13th Sept 2018

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Thursday 13th September 2018


1:50 - British Stallion Studs "Carrie Red" EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f110y ITV4

15/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Carried 9-3 or less
12/15 – Placed third or better last time out
12/15 – Rated 75 or higher
11/15 – Had won at least one race before
10/15 – Won by a Feb or Mar-born foal
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/15 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
2/15 – Won by the Hannon team
2/15 – Won by the Richard Fahey team
2/15 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
Ellthea (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1

 2.25 – William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

15/16 – Had 1 or 2 previous career wins
14/16 – Had won over 7f before
14/16 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
14/16 – Won by a Feb, Mar or April foal
10/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/16 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
10 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Laurens (11/4) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

3:00 - DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV4

13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Won no more than 4 times before
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before
8/15 – Previous Group winners
7/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
6/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Won the Lilly Langtry (Goodwood) that season
4/15 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Alyssa (25/1) won the race in 2017

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3:35 - Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y ITV4

13/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Finished 5th or better last time out
10/14 – Yet to win over 7f
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times
10/14 – Won from a double-figure stall
9/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Raced at York last time out
6/14 – Foaled in Jan or Feb
4/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Richard Fahey (including 2 or the last 4 runnings)
2/14 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/14 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
2/14 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/14 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/14 – Won by a filly
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
1/14 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2009)
9 of the last 11 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight
Laugh A Minute (12/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 18/1

 

 

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TV Trends: Sat 1st Sept 2018

More LIVE horse racing action this weekend as the ITV4 cameras head to Sandown, Chester and Beverley – we’ve got it all covered with the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Saturday 1st September 2018

 

SANDOWN Horse Racing Trends (Live ITV/RUK)


1.50 - 188Bet Extra Place Races Handicap Cl3 5f ITV4

10/10 – had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
8/10 – Rated between 80-93
8/10 – Had won over this 5f trip
7/10 – Had run at Sandown before (2 winners)
7/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Drawn 7 or higher
5/10 – Rated between 85-87
0/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/10 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

2.25 – Best Odds Guaranteed At 188Bet Handicap Cl2 1m2f7y ITV4

13/16 – Ran at Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
11/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/16 – Won 3 or more times before
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Had run at Sandown before (4 won)
8/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 –Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/16 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9.5/1

 

3.00 –188Bet Casino Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m14y ITV4

14/16 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/16 – Had won over a mile before
12/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter
12/16 – Winning distance 1 ¼ or less
11/16 – Aged 3 years-old
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Had won 3 or more times before
11/16 – Had won a Listed or Group class race
10/16 – Rated between 98 and 108
6/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Had run at Sandown before
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 5/1

3.35 –188Bet Solario Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f16y ITV4

15/16 – Never raced at Sandown before
15/16 – Had won at least one race before
15/16 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
13/16 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Had 2 or more previous runs
10/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over 7f before
8/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Won by trainer John Gosden
Masar (11/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 3/1

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Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

 

2.45 – William Hill  Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

13/14 – Winning distance 1 length or less
13/14 – Had 3 or more runs that season
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
12/14 – Unplaced last time out
12/14 – Won 3 or more times before
10/14 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Run at Beverley before (5 won)
4/14 – Aged 3 years-old
3/14 – Ridden by Tom Eaves
3/14 – Trained by Bryan Smart
2/14 – Trained by Ian Semple
2/14 – Winning favourites
No winner from a double-figure draw in the last 12 runnings
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
6 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 or 2
The horse from stall 9 has been placed in 6 of the last 12 runnings
Take Cover (3/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 – Foxy Bingo Fur-Ever Friends Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV4

14/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/14 – Rated between 83-96
11/14 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
11/14 – Had raced at Chester before
11/14 – Aged 6 or younger
9/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Unplaced last time out
6/14 – Drawn between stalls 11-14 (inc)
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/14 – Aged 3 years-old
5/14 – Ran at Chester last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14– Trained by Mark Brisbourne
2/14 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/14 – Trained by David Evans
Penwortham won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/1

 

3.15 – Foxy Bingo Fast And Fabulous Chester Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV4

15/15 – Won over 1m4f or further before
12/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
12/15 – Had won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/15 – Ran at either Pontefract, Ascot or Goodwood last time out
9/15 – Carried 9-3 or less
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Placed last time out
6/15 – Had run at Chester before (2 won)
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourite
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
My Reward won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

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Glorious Goodwood Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 1st Aug 2018)

It's panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 31st July to Sat 4th Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So, we'll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We get going on Day TWO with four LIVE ITV races, including the Molecomb Stakes and the Group One Sussex Stakes.

 

DAY TWO - Wednesday 1st August 2018

1.50 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Goodwood Handicap Cl2 2m5f ITV

15/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Had 3+ runs already that season
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat
10/16 – Had run at Goodwood before
8/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Cool Sky (25/1) won the race 12 months ago
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 20
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

2.25 – Move Over To Matchbook Stakes Cl2 1m4f ITV

14/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
10/14 – Winning favourites
10/14 – Rated between 84-93
9/14 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
8/14 – Won over 1m4f previously
7/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
5/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/14– Trained by Mark Johnston
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/14 – Winning favourites
Londinium (9/1) won the race 12 months ago
9 of the last 12 winners came from stall 10 or lower
Horses from stall 10 have won 2 of the last 12 runnings

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3.00 – Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

14/16 – Had won over 5f before
13/16 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/16 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
11/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 lengths or less
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
Horse from stall 1 has finished in the top 3 in 7 of the last 9 runnings
Havana Grey (7/2) won the race 12 months ago

3.35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

16/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/17 – Won over 1m before
14/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had won 4 or more times during their career
12/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
11/17 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/17 – Has Won a Group One previously
10/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Aged 3 years-old
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/17 – Aged 4 years-old
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 3-5 (inc)

 

 

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