Placepot pointers – Tuesday 26th

BEVERLEY - SEPTEMBER 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (Tarnhelm), 3 (Mr Greenlight) & 6 (Scenic River)

Leg 2 (2.45): 3 (Mont Kinabalu), 5 (Salire) & 1 (Big Kitten)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Kirkham), 5 (The Stalking Moon) & 3 (Navarone)

Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Alpha Delphini) & 2 (Edward Lewis)

Leg 5 (4.25): 8 (Ravenhoe) & 6 (Mr Cool Cash)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Kohinur) & 2 (River Icon)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: The first two races on the card are novice events which are deemed as new races by the powers that be.  In all honesty, these races are exactly the same as they were as last year in terms of grade and distance so for the last time, I am including the stats as they were up to and including last year.  It is up to you whether you take them into account or disregard the figures. All eight winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones and it's difficult to envisage TARNHELM failing to land a blow at some stage of the contest. I would not back Mark Johnston’s Helmet filly from a win perspective though on the other hand, TARNHELM is certainly the first name on the team sheet as I prepare my permutation.  I suggested that there would be worse outsiders on the card than what turned out to be the 10/1 winner of this event twelve months ago and though MR GREENLIGHT will not be offered at such a big price, each way investors could do worse than give Tim Easterby’s raider a squeak.  Equally, stable companion SCENIC RIVER is also added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor:  Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just the one (7/4) winner, if (repeating) you ignore the fact that this is a ‘new race’ according to the BHA.

 

2.45: Just a reminder that the same stance in taken in this race regarding its ‘new’ status.  What money that has been invested at the time of writing has been for MONT KINABALU and (to a lesser degree) SALIRE.  That said, Mark Johnston’s Kitten’s Joy newcomer BIG KITTEN would not have to possess a great deal of ability to become involved at the business end of the contest I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Favourites have secured four of the eight contests to date, with all eight market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions.

 

3.15: 14 of the last 16 winners of this event carried weights of 8-12 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the stats seriously, You can add ‘good to firm stats’ into the negative equation as well, as two of the runners here boast 10 course wins between them (see stats below), though every success has been registered under fast conditions which will not be in evidence today.  Of the pair which have received support overnight as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol, I prefer the chance of KIRKHAM over Equiano Springs, again on account of the soft ground being projected.  Others to consider include soft ground winners THE STALKING MOON and NAVARONE.

 

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/2—Navarone (soft)

6/19—Talent Scout (6 x good to firm)

1/7—Line Of Reason (good)

4/31—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)

 

 

3.50: With four of the six runners officially rated in three figures, this appears to be a reasonably strong renewal, though it is disappointing to report that the race will be contested on slow ground obviously. ALPHA DELPHINI boasts obvious claims via the form book, though whether the ground will suit EDWARD LEWIS more remains to be seen.  Last year’s runner up Ornate would also prefer fast ground.

Favourite factor:  Nine favourites have won via 19 renewals to date, whilst 13 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/7—Line Of Reason (good)

1/1—Edward Lewis (good to firm)

2/3—Alpha Delphini (2 x good)

2/2—Ziggy Lee (2 x good to firm)

 

4.25:  I feel compelled to start with the returning title holder RAVENHOE if only because the 18/1 quote this morning makes quite a lot of appeal on ground that will suit, albeit drying conditions (to a fashion) would be perfect for Mark Johnston’s raider.  That said, similar going comment (relating to good to soft ground) also applies to MR COOL CASH who has been the subject of a lot of support in the dead of night.  Richard Guest boasts a 31% strike rate here at Beverley this season and this pair from either end of the market will do for me against the remaining 13 contenders.

Favourite factor:  Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (3/1) winner.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

3/23—Make On Madam (2 x good + good to firm)

1/7—Chiswick Bey (good to firm)

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2/5—Mr Cool Cash (good to firm & good to soft)

1/6—Beadlam (good)

2/4—Ravenoe (good & good to soft)

1/2—Pioneering (good to firm)

3/5—Arcane Dancer (good to firm – good – good to soft)

1/1—Metronomic (good)

 

4.55: RIVER ICON did not do a great deal wrong when changing codes at the first time on the level at Chester, though KOHINUR should take the beating under the terms and conditions of this maiden event for fillies.

Favourite factor:  The Placepot finale is (genuinely) a new race on the Beverley programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Tim Easterby (7/69 – loss of 35 points)

6—Richard Fahey (15/87 – loss of 11 points)

4—Patrick Holmes (0/7)

3—Les Eyre (2/19 – loss of 3 points)

3—Richard Guest (4/13 +15)

3—Mark Johnston (9/56 (loss of 1 point)

3—Lawrence Mullaney (1/14 – loss of 8 points)

3—David O’Meara (7/70 – loss of 27 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (3/14 – slight loss)

2—Antony Brittain (2/24 – loss of 5 points)

2—Julie Camacho (1/9 – loss of 7 points)

2—Michael Chapman (0/1)

2—Ann Duffield (0/21)

2—Marjorie Fife (0/6)

2—Roger Fell (3/23 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ollie Greenall (0/2)

2—Micky Hammond (0/9)

2—Tina Jackson (2/9 +9)

2—Iain Jardine (0/4)

2—Paul Midgley (2/22 - +2)

2—John Quinn (4/27 – loss of 7 points)

2—Karen Tutty (4/23 - +20)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £102.40 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £138.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Chelmsford: This appears to be a new meeting on the calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th September

LEICESTER – SEPTEMBER 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £27.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Misty Spirit), 3 (Lady Dancealot) & 12 (Sienna Says)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Kings Academy) & 13 (Undiscovered Angel)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Beachcomber Bot) & 6 (Porth Swtan)

Leg 4 (3.40): 8 (Lathom), 7 (Venturous) & 4 (Union Rose)

Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Lester Kris), 7 (Military Parade) & 1 (Golden Birthday)

Leg 6 (4.45): 10 (Royal Melody), 1 (Fastnet Spin) & 8 (Ashazuri)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Horses drawn or high or low have dominated in recent years with four of the last six winners having been drawn in ‘double figures; whilst the other two gold medallists emerged from traps one and two.  David Elsworth’s only two runners on the card contest this opening event, with both raiders holding realistic chances, namely MISTY SPIRIT (drawn 9/13) & LADY DANCEALOT (5).  David has ‘only’ saddled eleven winners since January which by his high standards is a poor return, especially given the relevant 11% strike rate.  Add the fact that only one of his 24 juvenile has won this year, and you can understand why I would not backing either of his runners to win this contest, albeit their Placepot chances are there for all to see.  I prefer course and distance winner MISTY SPIRIT of the pair, despite the fact that David Probert’s mount is as much as three times the price of the projected favourite.  Havana Heart (trap one) is left out of the mix as no money has been forthcoming for the Ismail Mohammed raider at the time of writing though should that scenario be reversed before flag fall, you should heed the warning.  At present though, SIENNA SAYS is preferred from stall twelve.

Favourite factor: Although only two of the last nine renewals have been won by favourites. Level stake investors have only suffered marginal losses as the two winners were returned at 3/1 and 11/4.  Indeed. Seven of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 11/2.  That said, only one of the last five favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Misty Spirit (good)

1/3—Queen Of Kalahari (soft)

1/1—Felisa (good to soft)

 

2.35: Good to soft course winner KINGS ACADEMY is the first name on the team sheet, albeit the Mayson gelding has yet to prove that this seventh furlong is a bonus at the third attempt at the distance.  That said, KINGS ACADEMY has been well placed by Paul Cole in this grade/company I’ll wager, with only UNDISCOVERED ANGEL and (to a lesser degree) Spirit Of Belle expected to offer resistance at the business end of the contest. From a win perspective, I would far rather be a layer than a player in this event.  At their shortest prices on offer at the time of writing, the trio are coupled at 2/7 which suggests laying is the name of the game, albeit I cannot obviously see where the winner might be coming from.  At 2/7, I think we can afford to be ‘wrong’ should that scenario unfold.

Favourite factor: The last five winners have scored at a top price of 5/1 though that said, four renewals have slipped by since the last (even money) favourite prevailed.  During that recent period however, only two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the second event:

1/4—Jet Setter (good to soft)

1/3—Kings Academy (good to soft)

 

3.05: The 5/4 trade press quote about BEACHCOMBER BOY looks far too skinny from my viewpoint, albeit I am the first to latch onto Charlie Appleby’s 3/7 ratio at Leicester this season.  Charlie’s Invincible Spirit representative is one of the oldest horses in the line up given his Jan 29 birth date, with his third birthday not that far away now.  This is a definite advantage, albeit PORTH SWTAN has gained plenty of experience via three assignments whereby the Charlie Hills raider is added to the mix, especially as his best offering to date emerged with juice in the ground. COURT HOUSE is yet to ‘catch fire’ on the exchanges though it is still early doors this morning whereby eventual support (if forthcoming) should be taken into account relating to the John Gosden entry.

Favourite factor: This novice event is (predictably) a new race on the Leicester card.

 

3.40: LATHOM has his first run for Julie Camacho here and though last year’s ‘Super Sprint’ winner has plummeted down the ratings, there is a definite chance that Julie’s Compton Place gelding could reward win and place investors at around the 9/1 mark at the time of writing.  VENTUROUS (David Barron’s horses are in good form) and UNION ROSE (much better for getting his toe into the turf) are feared most.

Favourite factor: Two market leaders have obliged via seven contests thus far, the last six winners having scored at a top price of 11/2 (favourite). Five of the eight favourites in total have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Smokey Lane (good to soft)

 

4.15: Three-year-olds have won the last three (of four) renewals, albeit via 77% of the total number of runners (17/22).  Vintage representatives are 2/5 to extend the tally before form is taken into consideration at the time of writing, with one defector recorded thus far.  LESTER KRIS turns out to be Richard Hannon’s only remaining runner on the card which makes for interesting reading, whilst Saeed Bin Suroor (MILITARY PARADE) attempts to saddled his first winner at the track this season at the eighth time of asking this afternoon.  GOLDEN BIRTHDAY cannot be ignored in this grade/company, albeit Harry Fry’s six-year-old has to give seven pounds to the junior raiders, which is potentially increased to twelve via Rossa Ryan’s claim aboard LESTER KRIS.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/7) winner.

 

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4.45: Heather Main’s horses have gone off the boil to a fashion (all six beaten in September), though her 25% strike rate during the months of July and August (via six winners) were gained when securing 27 points of level stake profit.  ROYAL MELODY is not without a chance here on behalf of the yard, with connections arguably having most to fear from FASTNET SPIN and ASHAZURI.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (9/4) favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Titan Goddess (good to soft)

1/2—Duchess Of Fife (good to soft)

2/10—Imperial Link (soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—William Muir (0/6)

3—Michael Appleby (0/26)

3—David Evans (3/23 – slight profit)

3—Brian Meehan (0/5)

2—Andrew Balding (2/10 – slight profit)

2—David Barron (5/11 +10)

2—Andi Brown (No previous runners)

2—Tony Carroll (2/20 – loss of 6 points)

2—Brian Ellison (1/7 +2)

2—David Elsworth (1/4 +2)

2—Julia Feilden (0/8)

2—John Flint (0/1)

2—John Gosden (2/11 – loss of 6 points)

2—Ron Harris (0/1)

2—Charlie Hills (2/14 – loss of 7 points)

2—Michael Mullineaux (2/10 +9)

2—Jonathan Portman (0/8)

2—Brendan Powell (0/4)

2—Richard Price (0/4)

2—Marcus Tregoning (1/1 +10)

2—Archie Watson (0/3)

+ 44 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

91 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hamilton: £54.20 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced (Abandoned today)

Kempton: £121.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 24th September

PLUMPTON – SEPTEMBER 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £190.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Sea Sovereign), 1 (Gibson Park) & 3 (Vancouver)

Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Free Stone Hill) & 2 (Lord Huntingdon)

Leg 3 (2.50): 4 (Velvet Cognac), 5 (Fair To Middling) & 3 (Little Windmill)

Leg 4 (3.20): 4 (City Dreamer), 7 (Jumping Jack) & 1 (Lord E)

Leg 5 (3.50): 1 (Holly Bush Henry) & 2 (Bugsie Malone)

Leg 6 (4.20): 1 (Flashman) & 4 (Ramore Will)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: SEA SOVEREIGN has been the subject of some overnight support and with trainer Mark Pitman boasting 2/6 stats during the summer, Tom Scudamore’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  The trade press quote of 9/2 might be difficult to obtain however if you considering having a bet from a win perspective.  Others to consider in a typical Plumpton opener include GIBSON PARK and VANCOUVER.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (2/1, Evens & 1/3) winners.

 

2.20: It could prove to be a coincidence of course, but I cannot overlook the fact that seven-year-olds have won both contests to date via just three representatives.  Given that the stats also offer eleven points of level stake profit into the bargain, FREE STONE HILL is the call, with LORD HUNTINGDON offered up as the main danger on the strength of his recent Bangor success.  East Indies cannot be entirely overlooked given his course victory under similar projected conditions today.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (via two renewals) have finished in the frame, including one of the two 10/3 joint favourites in the inaugural year which won the relevant contest.
Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/2—East Indies (good to firm)

 

2.50: The only horse for any money overnight (strangely enough) is for VELEVET COGNAC who has been backed in from 12/1 to 17/2 with BetVictor, with other firms also shortening up Lawney Hill’s nine-year-old gelding.  A winner of two of his nine races ‘between the flags’, Velvet Cognac has been offered a reasonable assignment in this grade/company I guess, and the support has influenced yours truly to include Nick Schofield’s mount in my Placepot permutation.  Joining him there are FAIR TO MIDDLING and LITTLE WINDMILL.  As a concluding comment on the race, I have only just noticed that Lawney has saddled the winner of four of the last eight renewals of this event, coming into the race on a hat trick this time around!  It will be interesting to see if the support for Velvet Cognac continues later this morning…

Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite prevailed during which time, every market leader has failed to finish in the frame!

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

2/4—Little Windmill (2 x good to firm)

 

3.20: Alan King has saddled two of the last nine winners and his raider CITY DREAMER catches the eye, albeit he has been a ‘bleeder’ in the past.  JUMPING JACK is an interesting newcomer for Chris Gordon who is invariably a trainer worth keeping on the right side here at Plumpton and at Fontwell.  Readers might point to the fact that Chris has saddled nearly double the number of winners at Fontwell compared to today’s venue but that said, Chris boasts level stake profits of over 21 points here against an overall loss at Fontwell during the last five years.  LORD E is asked to give seven pounds to five of his six rivals but Gary Moore knows the time of day and his debut Fontwell winner could be up to the task.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last decade during which time, nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 5/1.

 

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3.50: HOLLY BUSH HENRY goes up in trip again following an improved effort when scoring at Worcester on Monday having been asked to run over two and half furlong more than he had tackled before.  It’s worth noting that Jamie Moore retains the ride, whilst dad Gary is not represented in the contest.  Could it be that Jamie suggested that dad might be wasting his time by taking on the projected favourite?  5/2 is still available in a few places but with Coral having shortened up HBH to 15/8 already, 5/2 might be difficult to obtain this morning.  Connections might have most to fear from BUGSIE MALONE at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (via four renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include three successful market leaders of one kind or another.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/6—Mercers Court (good)

 

4.20: According to the radar, rain might reach Plumpton about the same time as this race is due off though either way, conditions will not bother FLASHMAN who has won on ground either side of good in the past.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and that ‘coincidence’ (if you like) sways me towards naming RAMORE WILL as the main threat to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven favourites have won during which time, the biggest priced winner was sent off at 7/1.  Six of the last seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/6—Flashman (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (1/1 +1)

5—Neil Mulholland (1/2 – slight profit this season)

4—Chris Gordon (No previous runners)

4—Neil King (0/2)

4—Gary Moore (1/6 – loss of 4 points)

3—Seamus Durack (No previous runners)

3—Seamus Mullins (1/3 +3)

2—David Bridgwater (No previous runners)

2—Lawney Hill (No previous runners)

2—Alan King (0/1)

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

50 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Uttoxeter: £291.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd September

NEWBURY – SEPTEMBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £110.70 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 14 (Reshaan), 7 (Cuban Heel) & 5 (Carp Kid)

Leg 2 (1.45): 6 (Emaraaty), 1 (Ateem) & 10 (Magnificent)

Leg 3 (2.15): 8 (Second Step) & 4 (Desert Encounter)

Leg 4 (2.50): 5 (James Garfield), 1 (Enjazaat) & 2 (Grand Koota)

Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Banksea), 12 (Silver Ghost) & 14 (Al Neksh)

Leg 6 (4.00): 5 (Cotai Glory), 2 (Muthmir) & 14 (Hot The Bid)

Potential perm: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: We start the day in much the same way as Friday, by informing that Richard Hannon has won two of the last three renewals of this event and I’m hoping for a similar result to Friday when Richard opened proceedings with a 20/1 winner (Orange Suit) for us!  Richard introduces his March foal CARP KID alongside RESHAAN who finished fourth on debut at Kempton earlier this month.  CUBAN HEEL represents Clive Cox who has been enjoying a fantastic run of form of late and his Havana Gold colt can reach the frame again in this class/company, given his fine form at Ascot on his penultimate start.

Favourite factor: Although three favourites have won via the last ten renewals of this event, two 50/1 chances were cheered home by the vast majority of bookmakers during the study period.

 

1.45: ATEEM and MAGNIFICENT both represent Richard Hannon in this second division of the opening race and after three assignments apiece, they should be cherry ripe now to produce their best form to date.  I do not back juveniles to win races who have failed to snare gold after three efforts though that said, both horses will feature in the my Placepot permutation alongside EMARAATY.  Ignore the 6/4 quote in the trade press relating to John Gosden’s raider who is touted around the 4/7 mark at the time of writing.  That is far too short on the face of one half decent Sandown effort thus far, though there is no denying that his Placepot chance is there for all to see.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the Newbury card, whereby the same stats apply.  Although three favourites have won via the last ten renewals of this event, two 50/1 chances were cheered home by the vast majority of bookmakers during the study period.

 

2.15: This Group 3 contest was formerly known as the ‘Arc Trial’ on the corresponding day down the years but even though we have a competitive event to witness today, this year’s representatives would (respectfully) have to start now if they were going to reach the frame (let alone win) the ‘Arc’ this time around!  I have no interest from a win perspective, though DESERT ENCOUNTER and SECOND STEP look good enough to guarantee (dangerous phrasing) a decent run from a Placepot perspective in a below par renewal. The relevant trainers (David Simcock and Roger Charlton respectively) have won three of the last nine renewals between which bodes well for their runners finishing in the frame at the very least.  Out of interest, I am duty bound to report bits and pieced of support at 50/1 about Andrew Balding’s local runner Wingingit at the time of writing, perhaps confirming that others also believe this race in there to be won by any of the eleven declarations.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this event during the last decade, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 15/2.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

2/3—Scarlet Dragon (good to firm & good to soft)

2/3—Second Step (good & good to soft)

3/8—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft & good to firm)

 

2.50: GRAND KOONTA will outrun his 16/1 price I’ll wager, though whether that will be good enough to beat the likes of JAMES GARFIELD and ENJAZAAT is open to doubt I guess.  All three horses still have scope for improvement I’ll wager, possibly more so than the well fancied Invincible Army who is well exposed now following six races already this term.  With only one less assignment under his belt, JAMES GARFIELD has also been kept up to his work by trainer George Scott but the booking of Frankie Dettori catches the eye in no uncertain terms.  Frankie was aboard the Exceed And Excel colt for the first time in the ‘Acomb’ the last day and the drop back in trip in this class/company could bring about a return to winning form.

Favourite factor: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick, favourites of one description or another having secured five of the last six renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 4/1.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Nebo (soft)

 

3.25: BANKSEA represents Luca Cumani who has saddled three winners of this event in the last ten years.  Six of Luca’s last eight runners have finished in the frame (stats include two winners) and there is every chance that the good (each way) run will continue this afternoon.  Aside from winning with a 25/1 chance at the track yesterday, it should be noted that Eve Johnson Houghton also saddled two silver medallists (at 16/1 & 14/1) via just four runners whereby the chance of SILVER GHOST is respected.  For good measure, it’s worth noting that Eve won this event two years ago with What About Carlo who was also representing the yard as a four-year-old.  AL NEKSH completes my trio against the remaining 17 contenders, the pick of which is arguably Anythingtoday.  Out of interest, five of the last six winners have emerged via a single figure draw, stats which support the chances of Banksea (5) and Al Neksh (6), whilst Silver Ghost is not exactly drawn out of contention in stall twelve.

Favourite factor: Three joint favourites have won this event during the last decade which given the competitive nature of the contest, is not a bad record at all. Indeed, the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 14/1.  Media types quote strange words about “outsiders” these days, with one famous broadcaster announcing that an 8/1 chance was an outsider the other day!  The top priced winner quoted above was one of 20 contenders on the day (the same as this year) and unless a horse wins at 22/1 or more this afternoon, I would not call the relevant winner an outsider, even if the gold medallist scored at 16/1.  Only when a horse is returned at a price bigger than the ‘number of runners’ can it be classed as a true outsider in my book, irrespective of what form lines the thoroughbred might/might not boast before a race.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Snoano (good to soft)

1/1—Banksea (good to firm)

1/1—Baydar (good to soft)

1/2—First Flight (good)

 

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4.00: Defending champion COTAI GLORY returns to the scene of his victory and his win and place chance is there for all to see, albeit in a more competitive event this time around.  Connections might have most to fear from MUTHMIR and the Irish raider HIT THE BID on this occasion.  COTAI GLORY has not won (via eight assignments) since lifting the prize twelve months back but that said, the Charlie Hills raider comes into the race off exactly the same weight and official mark whereby his 11/2 quote at the time of writing looks about right from my viewpoint.  It’s also worth digesting the fact that two of his five victories to date have been posted during the month of September.

Favourite factor: Five of the last seven renewals have been secured by favourites, the biggest priced winner during the period having been returned at 9/2.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cotai Glory (good to soft)

1/1—Judicial (good)

1/3—Mirza (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by the number of winners they have saddled on the corresponding day during the last five years (where applicable):

8 runners—Richard Hannon (3 winners)

8---Clive Cox (4)

6—Andrew Balding (1)

6—Eve Johnson Houghton (2)

5—Tom Dascombe

4—John Gosden (1)

4—Charlie Hills (1)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (2)

4—James Tate

3—Owen Burrows

3—Roger Charlton (1)

3—William Haggas

2—John Best

2—Mick Channon (1)

2—Roger Cowell

2—Luca Cumani

2—Tim Easterby

2—David Evans

2—Jeremy Noseda

2—Hugo Palmer (2)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor

2—Ian Williams

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

115 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £1,148.00 (abandoned this year unfortunately)

Catterick: £222.50

Newmarket: £92.90

Wolverhampton: £53.20

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd September

NEWBURY – SEPTEMBER 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £824.20 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 14 (Final Treat), 4 (Buffer Zone) & 10 (Orange Suit)

Leg 2 (1.50): 10 (Beshaayir) & 12 (Foxtrot Lady)

Leg 3 (2.25): 4 (Lethal Lunch), 5 (Bombastic) & 3 (Running Cloud)

Leg 4 (2.55): 9 (Temple Church), 2 (Danehill Kodiac) & 3 (Wild Hacked)

Leg 5 (3.30): 2 (White Mocha), 1 (Bon Scotte) & 4 (Khazaf)

Leg 6 (4.00): 11 (Princess De Lune), 7 (Second Thought) & 8 (Golden Stunner)

Suggested stake: 766 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: BUFFER ZONE and FINAL TREAT are being well back now that Jaawaal has been withdrawn, though the Hannon representative ORANGE SUIT cannot be ignored, given that ‘Team Hannon’ won this event three years in a row recently.  12/1 (at the time of writing) offers a little value for money accordingly for those that want to take on the market leaders.

Favourite factor: Four of the last nine contests were won by favourites during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.

 

1.50: BESHAAYIR sets the standard though that said, beaten juvenile favourites on the strength of one run have kept bookmakers ‘in cigars’ for as long as I care to remember.  Yes, the William Haggas raider will head my Placepot team for this event, but as for taking the 4/5 on offer on ‘uncertain’ turf, I’ll swerve that option if you don’t mind.  The experience gained by FOXTROT LADY suggests that she will make the frame again.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race at Newbury whereby the same stats apply; four of the last nine contests were won by favourites during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.

 

2.25: Clive Cox saddled last year’s winner and with the team in devastating recent form (13/30 ratio in recent weeks), stable representative LETHAL LUNCH is the first name on the team sheet.  BOMBASTIC (Ed De Giles) and RUNNING CLOUD (Eve Johnson Houghton) also represent in form stables and this pair might offer most resistance to the selection at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner scored at 7/1 via just the four renewals to date, with one (4/5) market leader having prevailed thus far.

 

2.55: The only overnight money has come for course winner TEMPLE CHURCH and WILD HACKED, whilst offering the sobering message that just two favourites have won during the last decade.  That said, nine of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 15/2.  Three-year-olds have snared five of the last nine renewals which is another pointer towards the lone vintage raider TEMPLE CHURCH.  DANEHILL KODIAC just gets the nod over Dance The Dream to complete my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Only one market leader has scored during the last nine years, whilst further news is listed above.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Temple Church (soft)

 

3.30: Marus Tregoning has saddled two of the last nine winners whereby the chance of KHAZAF is respected, albeit that WHITE MOCHA and BON SCOTTE hold valuable racecourse experience over the Dawn Approach newcomer.  Living in Bristol (not too far west of Newbury), I am amazed that the projection is for good ground today, given that it rained for at least five consecutive hours here yesterday.  Tread carefully!

Favourite factor: Four renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged though to be entirely fair, the biggest priced gold medallist during those brief barren years was returned at just 11/2.  Indeed, three of the last eight contests have been snared by favourites of one description or another.

 

4.00: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals, though four-year-old GOLDEN STUNNER arguably offers some value for money here, albeit against slight slightly more obvious winners of the contest, namely PRINCESS DE LUNE and SECOND THOUGHT.  The first named Roger Charlton raider ‘splits the books’ this morning between offers of 4/1 and 11/2, with the first named quote making more sense than the second.  If the odds don’t seem to be that far apart to (respectfully) the ‘untrained eye’, the differential between 11/2 and 4/1 is roughly the same as a horse being back in from 20/1 to 10/1.

Favourite factor: Although the biggest priced winner was returned at just 8/1 during the last nine years, only two successful market leaders were registered during the period.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/1—Tabarrak (good to soft)

1/1—Golden Stunner (good to firm)

1/1—Princess De Lune (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

10 runners—Richard Hannon (9/73 – loss of 7 points)

5—Hughie Morrison (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

4—William Haggas (5/30 - +3)

4—Eve Johnson Houghton (1/13 - loss of 9 points)

3—Andrew Balding (0/19)

3—Ralph Beckett (3/20 – loss of 2 points)

3—Roger Charlton (2/18 – loss of 10 points)

3—Clive Cox (0/21)

3—Tom Dascombe (0/6)

3—Charlie Hills (5/32 +31)

3—James Tate (1/2 +2)

3—Marcus Tregoning (0/5)

2—Marco Botti (0/12)

2—Harry Dunlop (0/9)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/2)

2—Richard Hughes (0/13)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/18)

2—Jonathan Portman (0/10)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/21 – loss of 7 points)

2—Ed Walker (3/20 +2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £2,659.30

Newcastle: £463.60

Newton Abbot: £50.80

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st September

PONTEFRACT – SEPTEMBER 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £104.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 5 (Malitia) & 3 (Harrogate)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Election Day) & 2 (Briyouni)

Leg 3 (3.25): 8 (Ludorum), 5 (Azzir) & 1 (Kharbetation)

Leg 4 (4.00): 1 (Kassia), 5 (Tirania) & 2 (Clon Coulis)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Chebsey Beau), 5 (Transpennine Star) & 4 (Tyrell)

Leg 6 (5.05): 7 (Mesbarr) & 6 (Heron)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Going projection: Good to soft

Radar: Suggests that moderate rain will reach Pontefract by lunchtime

 

 

2.20: The favourite stats below make for compulsive reading though something might have to give here with layers offering 5/2 (thereabouts) the field on this occasion.  Either way, it would be churlish in the extreme to overlook the Placepot chances of MALITIA and HARROGATE, even though they are drawn wide in stalls eight and thirteen respectively.  All that might do is increase their prices which given previous results in this contest, could prove disastrous for bookmakers.  We will have to wait and see with bated breath!

Favourite factor: This is one of the strongest races for favourites throughout the entire year at Pontefract, with seven of the last ten market leaders having won. Indeed, the biggest priced winner during the last decade was recorded at just 10/3.

 

2.50: All ten winners during the study period carried 8-10 or more to victory, statistics which eliminate three horses in the handicap from my enquiries, one of which is via a jockey claim. ELECTION DAY looks the safest Placepot call, whilst noting each way support overnight for BRIYOUNI who will not start at the trade press price of 14/1 in all probability.  8/1 could be the nearer the mark about Kevin Ryan’s four-year-old representative, albeit faster ground would have offered additional confidence according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last six years.  All ten winners during the last decade scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the second event:

1/2—Echo Of Lightning (soft)

1/2—Mt Cool Cash (good to soft)

2/9—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)

 

3.25: There is not too much to report regarding overnight interest in the race, though 14/1 looks a little too big about the chance of KHARBETATION at the time of writing.  David O’Meara saddles six runners at the track and though posting the odd score now and then, the popular trainer will be desperate for more consistent winners by now after a really ordinary season by David’s high standards.  LUDORUM is by far the last exposed runner in the field and warrants plenty of respect accordingly, arguably alongside course and distance winner AZZIR who could also go close on the best of his form, especially if the rainclouds swerve Pontefract Park this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have snared Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  The other pair of market leaders finished well down the field.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/6—Save The Bees (good to firm)

1/2—Azzir (good)

1/1—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

 

4.00: Three-year-olds have recorded six victories in the last ten years, stats which include three of the last four winners of this Class2 handicap for fillies.  Boasting a course record of 2/2 to her name here at Pontefract, it is hardly surprising that KASSIA have been the subject of each way support since the layers chalked up overnight prices for this contest.  Mick Channon’s filly carries an additional four pounds off the relevant mark which looks fair enough given the relevant ease of her victory in the race twelve months ago.  I have to adhere to my vintage stats obviously, offering the likes of TIRANIAS and CLON COULIS (preferred in that order) as the main threats this time around.

Favourite factor: Four winning favourites to report during the last decade, with eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2.  That said, the two winners were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/2—Kassia (good & good to firm)

2/6—Sandra’s secret (good & good to firm)

 

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4.30: Here we go (yet) again with the ever present staying contest on a Pontefract card which is just about the only negative vibe I report relating to the lovely west Yorkshire venue.  Regular readers will know that I really don’t like these glorified ‘greyhound races’ in which the runners shake hooves as they enter the stalls, before deciding which one of them is going to win today.  Believing that I am in a minority of one, I will offer up CHEBSEY BEAU, TRANSPENNINE STAR and TYRELL against their ten rivals before retiring to the bar.

Favourite factor: Two successful clear market leaders have been registered during the last decade alongside two joint favourites.  All ten winners during the study period scored at a top price of 11/1.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/2—Almost Gemini (heavy)

1/4—Bulas Belle (good to firm)

1/1—Wordiness (good)

1/5—La Fritillaire (good to soft)

2/18—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)

2/19—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

5.05: The three obvious runners here have all been drawn which adds interest to proceedings.  That said, before last year’s trap one raider scored, five of the previous six winners had scored from stalls 6/7/8 whereby connections of MESBARR and HERON have cause for optimism.  Hat’s Off To Larry is drawn widest of all in the ten stall and at around 6/4 at the time of writing, I’m willing to oppose Mick Channon’s representative on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have scored during the last decade during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 6/1.  For the record, the other two gold medallists were returned at 50/1 & 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David O’Meara (8/35 +9)

5—Richard Fahey (5/62 +4)

4—Michael Dods (1/21 – loss of 4 points)

3—Mick Channon (1/8 – loss of 5 points)

3—Roger Fell (0/10)

3—Richard Guest (2/12 +19)

3—Micky Hammond (2/22 – loss of 4 points)

2—David Barron (0/5)

2—Robert Cowell (No previous runners this season)

2—Tim Easterby (7/32 +9)

2—Les Eyre (1/9 – loss of 4 points)

2—James Given (2/12 – slight loss)

2—Anthony McCain (No previous runners this season)

2—Karen McLintock (1/4 +37)

2—Amy Murphy (0/1)

2—Jason Ward (0/2)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £1,290.10

Yarmouth: £7,407.20

Chelmsford: £8.60

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th September

SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £110.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 2 (African Friend), 4 (Artscape) & 5 (Coastal Cyclone)

Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Kitaabaat) & 5 (Falcon Eye)

Leg 3 (2.35): 3 (Il Primo Sole) & 1 (Last Voyage)

Leg 4 (3.05): 3 (Laidback Romeo), 7 (D’bai) & 5 (Richard Pankhurst)

Leg 5 (3.40): 8 (Clearly), 7 (Dynamic) & 3 (Madeleine Bond)

Leg 6 (4.15): 2 (Stone The Crows), 7 (Rake’s Progress) & 11 (Makkadangdang)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: Some housekeeping to attend to before I commence play as 32/35 winners at this correspond meeting during the last five years have won at a top price of 9/1, stats which include no less than 15 successful favourites! Even the other three gold medallists ‘only’ started at 14/1 and 16/1 (twice). Three of the four winners of the opening event have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 thus far, stats which eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap if you believe in trends which by now (after 17 years of daily advice), you do.  The pick of the relevant ‘survivors’ will hopefully prove to be AFRICAN FRIEND, ARTSCAPE and COASTAL CYCLONE, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four favourites to date and we have yet to see any of them finishing in the frame!  That said, all four winners have, at least, been returned in single figures (9/1, 7/1, 5/1 & 4/1).

 

2.00: Owen Burrows introduced a nice looking prospect to winning effect at Yarmouth yesterday and stable companion KITAABAAT should at least ‘trouble the judge’ at the third time of asking in this grade/company.  Owen’s Dansili colt has only been beaten by an aggregate of two and a quarter lengths thus far and Jim Crowley’s mount should reach the frame at the very least.  FALCON EYE ‘splits the books’ here, ranging between 10/3 and 5/1 as I write though either way, Charlie’s Appleby’s once raced juvenile looks set to become competitive at the business end of proceedings after a decent enough debut effort at Newmarket a couple of months back.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

2.35: This event has already turned in to a ‘win only’ contest with just the four runners now set to face the starter.  I often include all contenders in these win only events in the hope that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails though in this instance, all the overnight money has been spilt between IL PRIMO SOLE and LAST VOYAGE.  Richard Hughes appears to have a nice type in Ragstone Road but he meets two strong rivals on this occasion.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/3 (John Gosden trained) favourite duly obliged before last year’s 15/8 market leader failed to reach the frame in a short field event.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

3.05: Seven of the eight winners of this Listed event have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst three-year-olds have claimed four of the last six contests.  Clive Cox is surely in the form of his life I would tentatively suggest, as his last thirteen winners have prevailed via a 46% strike rate!  Clive saddles LAIDBACK ROMEO here at an each way price which was around the 12/1 mark when writing this column.  It’s worth noting (perhaps) that one of two Clive Cox scorers on this card during the study period was returned at 16/1. Clive’s only other runner today is an 8/1 chance at Yarmouth (no runners at all tomorrow) whereby an each way double might prove fruitful.  Others of interest as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol this morning include D’BAI and the slightly enigmatic John Gosden raider RICHARD PANKHURST.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via eight renewals during the last decade.  Seven of the ten favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—Laidback Romeo (2 x good to firm)

1/2—Khafoo Shememi (good to firm)

1/1—Larchmont Lad (good to soft)

 

3.40: Nine of the last twelve winners of this Class 4 handicap event for fillies have carried a maximum weight of 8-13, including two gold medallists which were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.  CLEARLY very much looks the pick of the four qualifiers via the weight trends though that said, DYNAMIC is a useful rival sitting just three pounds further up the handicap.  There is an old saying that if you fall off your bike when learning to ride, you should get straight back on and that is the case here with the underrated claimer Georgia Cox climbing back aboard MADELEINE BOND after their ‘disagreement’ shortly after the start at Yarmouth the last day.  This trio will get us safely through to the Placepot finale if we were live going into the fifth leg.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have won at 7/2, 3/1 & 15/8 alongside a 6/1 co favourite during the last twelve years though that said, the last four jollies have finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Al Nafoorah (good)

1/1—Finale (good to soft)

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4.15: MAKKADANGDANG represents the yard of Andrew Balding who has saddled three winners at this fixture during the last five years which were all returned as favourites of their respective events.  No trainer can equal Andrew’s figure though unless there is a dramatic plunge on the bottom weight, Andrew’s Mastercraftsman gelding should be returned in double figures which is worth a minimum stake win and place wager from my viewpoint.  That said, the last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more to victory which also brings other each way types such as STONE THE CROWS and RAKE’S PROGRESS into the equation.

Favourite factor: The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 though just one successful market leader was registered during the period.  Six of the last 10 favourites have snared Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Jupiter Light (good to firm)

1/3—Mister Blue Sky (good to soft)

1/1—The Statesman (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Richard Hannon (9/56 – loss of 5 points)

6—John Gosden (4/30 – loss of 10 points)

4—Charlie Hills (3/21 (+3)

4—Hugo Palmer (0/11)

3—Charlie Appleby (2/11 – loss of 7 points)

3—Andrew Balding (1/24 - +17)

3—Harry Dunlop (0/7)

2—Henry Candy (2/11 – loss of 4 points)

2—Roger Charlton (4/15 – loss of 5 points)

2—Simon Crisford (3/6 +10)

2—Ed Dunlop (2/11 – slight profit)

2—Ed de Giles (0/2)

2—Philip Hide (0/5)

2—Stuart Kittow (0/3)

2—Roger Teal (0/4)

2—Roger Varian (6/15 +2)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £54.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Yarmouth: £12.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kelso: £198.70 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th September

YARMOUTH – SEPTEMBER 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £137.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unpalced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Yarmouth: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Mutaaqeb), 1 (Mashaheer) & 5 (Rule Of Honour)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Noble Manners) & 1 (Simpson)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (High End) & 3 (Intellect)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Fortria), 8 (Sexy Secret), 6 (Magic Beans) & 10 (Mungo Madness)

Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (One Master) & 4 (Perfect Sense)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (North Creek), 3 (Quatrieme Ami) & 7 (Ocean Temptress)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: The first thing I must mention having looked at the overnight exchanges is that Mandarin Princess is coming in for a little support at 50/1 as well as exchange activity though at present, we are talking small liquidities.  More obvious winners in the line up include the Invincible Spirit newcomer MUTAAQEB from the Owen Burrows yard and MASHAHEER.  Money for RULE OF HONOUR would be worth heeding in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings at Yarmouth.

 

2.35: Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this Nursery event during the last decade and as a winner in this grade at Newmarket in July, NOBLE MANNERS is the first name on the team sheet.  The general quote of 7/1 about Mark’s (good to soft winner) Myboycharlie filly makes plenty of each way appeal, albeit this is a ‘short field’ event.  Ed Walker’s raider SIMPSON will also find the ground a little softer than is ideal for the Dragon Pulse gelding though that said, this pair should get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  The reserve nomination is awarded to LUCIFUGOUS. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last seven contests during which time, five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race on the card:

1/1—Midnight Wilde (good to firm)

 

3.05: HIGH END had drifted a little overnight but not enough for us to become alarmed, particularly as far as his Placepot prospects are concerned.  Saeed Bin Suroor’s unbeaten Dubawi representative has to be included in the mix, albeit in an interesting race which probably means that this will be another event on the card where my ‘powder remain dry’ in terms of considering a bet from a win perspective.  There will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card than ZACK MAYO I’ll wager, though INTELLECT is considered as the rival that HIGH END has to beat in order for his 100% record to remain intact.

Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick having won three of the five renewals to date.  The last five market leaders have all finished in the frame following the complete demise of the inaugural 10/11 favourite back in 2012.

 

3.40: This is practically a ‘seller’ in all but name and one of the few things about the race which catches the eye is that SDS is given the leg up aboard a Dean Ivory raider (FORTRIA) for only the third time according to my figures.  SEXY SECRET, MAGIC BEANS and MUNGO MADNESS are added into the equation, hoping that this is the race on the card that will propel the potential Placepot dividend into orbit.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Yarmouth programme.

1/10—Sexy Secret (good to firm)

 

4.10: William Haggas won this race with his previous runner in the race (winning favourite two years ago) whereby I’m latching on to his Fastnet Rock filly ONE MASTER who overcame problems to finish a fine third in a much better race at Doncaster on debut last month.  Too many ‘good things’ have come unstuck down the years in terms of expecting juveniles to win after just one race in which they have shown promise, whereby I will simply expect Ryan Moore to steer the market leader home, chiefly at the expense of PERFECT SENSE.  Saeed’s raider is (potentially) asked to give the filly just two pounds thanks to a jockey claim which could make the race interesting at the business end of proceedings.

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Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have won with all four market leaders having finished in the frame.  The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which have produced four successful favourites.

 

4.45: Without an edge via previous renewals to work with, I am guided (as much as anything else) by three each way types who have attracted money overnight, namely NORTH CREEK, QUATRIEME AMI and OCEAN TEMPTRESS.  If you are content to eliminate one or two of the runners I have included in the fourth race on the card, you might want to add soft ground course winner ROBBIAN into the mix here.  Chris Wall (NORTH STREET) is (respectfully) not a name which is banded about too often is terms of headlines in the sport, but it’s worth reporting that this much underrated trainer has saddled no less than 74 winners at Yarmouth down the years, nearly forty winners more than his best other turf track ratios at Windsor and Newmarket (July course). Not only are his horses here always worth a second glance but equally, it often pays to look out for his representatives that have been sent to another course when Yarmouth stages fixtures.  For the record, Chris sends two horses on the long journey to Newcastle tonight.  A minimum stake patent has been invested by yours truly. If either of those ‘away runners’ are successful tonight, keep an eye on the runners away from Yarmouth on Wednesday and Thursday.  Chris has one in at Sandown tomorrow and two potential runners elsewhere on Thursday.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third of the new races on the Yarmouth card.

1/2—Robbian (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Yarmouth card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3—Phil McBride (2/17 – loss of 3 points)

3—John Ryan (3/21 – loss of 9 points)

2—Roger Charlton (1/1 +1)

2—Christine Dunnet (0/22)

2—Chris Dwyer (4/21 – loss of 2 points)

2—Robert Eddery (2/8 +2)

2—William Haggas (5/25 +1)

2—Dean Ivory (2/21 – loss of 11 points)

2—John Jenkins (0/24)

2—Mark Johnston (1/11 – loss of 3 points)

2—Laura Mongan (No previous runners)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (4/8 – slight profit)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £165.80 – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Redcar: £21.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th September

BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £138.00 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (1.35): 4 (Edge), 3 (Oceanus) & 1 (Saint Helena)

Leg 2 (2.10): 8 (Tesorina) & 2 (Poetic Affair)

Leg 3 (2.40): 4 (Tifi), 7 (Lady Morel) & 2 (Baltic Prince)

Leg 4 (3.10): 1 (Papou Tony), 6 (Touch Of Color) & 4 (The Special One)

Leg 5 (3.45): 4 (Highly Sprung), 3 (Ladweb) & 2 (Marie Of Lyon)

Leg 6 (4.15): 8 (Lord E) & 9 (Esspeegee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.35: Horses carrying at least nine stones have secured 13 of the 18 available toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include five of the six winners which were returned at 10/1-8/1-9/2-3/1**-11/4.  Eight of the twelve horses are eliminated via the stats, figures which include one runner who drops into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap via a jockey claim.  EDGE, OCEANUS and SAINT HELENA are the trio making most appeal at the time of writing though from a win perspective, no horse jumps off the page.  If pushed, I would nominate Saint Helena as the each way call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Only two of the seven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions via six renewals (one winner at 11/4).

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/4--Edge (good)

4/18—Port Lairge (2 x good – good - heavy)

1/3—Tojosimbre (good to firm)

 

2.10: We have already lost two of the nine declarations whereby a ‘short field’ race is set before us in a race which was difficult to assess, even before the withdrawals reader their ugly heads.  TESORINA is the tentative call over Mark Johnston’s Poet’s Voice newcomer POETIC AFFAIR. For new readers, it might be worth informing that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites secured toteplacepot positions via five renewals, statistics which include one (6/5**) winner.

 

2.40: Perhaps I am guilty of being cynical, but why is it that a nine runner race is diluted down to seven before the ink has time to dry on the (2.10) page, yet a 15 runner event like this one remains ‘intact’ overnight? I must start ‘getting out’ more!  Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whist six of the seven gold medallists in total carried nine stones or more to victory. The recent Chepstow winner TIFI is the only horse with ticks in both of the trend boxes.  LADY MOREL and BALTIC PRINCE are added into the equation via the weight trend.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/5—Corporal Maddox (good to soft)

2/2—Tigerfish (good & good to firm)

1/3—Lady Morel (good)

 

3.10: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same stats apply. Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whist six of the seven gold medallists in total carried nine stones or more to victory. In contrast to the first heat of this event, five four-year-olds qualify via the trends, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PAPOU TONY, TOUCH OF COLOR and THE SPECIAL ONE, the trio being listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor:  Five of the eight market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include four winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—The Special One (good to firm)

1/5—Suni Dancer (good)

3/24—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – firm)

 

3.45: Mark Johnston’s second (and final) runner on the card is HIGHLY SPRUNG, the trainer boasting a fine record here at Brighton as you can see in the relevant part of the analysis below.  I would not be at all surprised if the remaining quotes of 6/1 about Mark’s Zebedee gelding is gobbled up before the shops open on Monday morning.  LADWEB and MARIE OF LYON are others to take into consideration.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (via five renewals) have finished in the money, including two successful (3/1** & 2/1) favourites.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Ladweb (good)

1/1—Fang (good)

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4/24—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to soft – good to firm)

 

4.15:  Seven of the nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden on nine stones, stats which eliminate eight of the fourteen declarations if we include jockey claims.  LORD E and ESSPEEGEE are consistent types in terms of being in the thick of things as jockeys raise their whips, albeit their 20 aggregate assignments on the level have yet to produce a victory between them.  That all changed for LORD E the last day over hurdles however, whereby Gary Moore’s three-year-old is challenging for a place in my permutation, despite being dropped below the weight barrier by Hector Crouch’s claim.  ESSPEEGEE is marginally preferred to Altaira with just two Placepot positions up for grabs to complete my permutation.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame to date via nine renewals, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1--Kilim (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5—Scott Dixon (2/7 +16)

5—Julia Feilden (2/17 – loss of 11 points)

4—Tony Carroll (1/34 – loss of 30 points)

4—Daniel Steele (0/4)

3—Lee Carter (0/3)

3—John Gallagher (2/16 – loss of 3 points)

3—Gary Moore (8/38 +44)

2—Michael Blanshard (0/1)

2—Richard Fahey (No previous runners this season)

2—Ed De Giles (1/10 +5)

2—Mark Gillard (0/4)

2—Rae Guest (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

2—Richard Hannon (7/26 +18)

2—Shaun Harris (1/1 +7)

2—Mark Johnston (7/17 +5)

2—Sylvester Kirk (3/21 – loss of 2 points)

2—Phil McEntee (0/13)

2—Tony Newcombe (0/4)

2—Jonathan Portman (1/5 +3)

2—Brendan Powell (0/2)

2—John Spearing (1/4 +2)

2—Ali Stronge (1/4 +5)

2—Joseph Tuite (1/10 – loss of 2 points)

2—Adam West (0/3)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £85.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Worcester: £126.70 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £30.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 17th September

BATH - SEPTEMBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £160.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Bath: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Frank Cool), 1 (Fantasy Justifier) & 2 (Spirit Of Rosanna)

Leg 2 (2.45): 7 (Whiteley), 6 (David’s Beauty) & 4 (Cee Jay)

Leg 3 (3.15): 3 (Edged Out), 7 (Secret Potion) & 6 (Pastfact)

Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (Spanish Star), 4 (Aquadabra) & 7 (Hastenplace)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Roundhay Park), 6 (Maygold) & 1 (Big Time Maybe)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Storm Melody) & 8 (Dandilion)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: FRANK COOL (drawn 8/17) should prove difficult to kick out of the frame and for those of you who only opt for one horse in each leg of our favourite wager, ‘Frank’ would be the unoriginal call albeit from a win perspective, my money would be saved for later on the card.  Others to consider is a frightening opening event include FANTASY JUSTIFIER (16) and SPIRIT OF ROSANNA (4), if only because will then have a representative from all sectors of the draw.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured via three renewals thus far, statistics which include two (2/1 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

2/5—Triple Dream (good to firm & firm)

 

2.45: I remember that I recently mentioned that I find WHITELEY difficult to call because when I opt for the Channon representative she lets me down and the reverse is true when I give her opposed her in the past.  Either way, I am inclined to include Mick’s Dark Angel filly in my Placepot mix, alongside the likes of DAVID’S BEAUTY and CEE JAY with both of the two ‘dangers’ having received financial support overnight.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening race on the card whereby the same stats apply.  All four favourites have secured via three renewals thus far, statistics which include two (2/1 & 3/1**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second event:

1/4—Posh Bounty (soft)

1/6—Kingstreet Lady (firm)

2/10—Angelito (good & good to firm)

 

3.15: Let’s hope for a more peaceful contest than was the case last year, when a horse bolted on the way to the start before being withdrawn, alongside two others before a new market could be formed.  EDGED OUT was the horse that bolted last year but having won here last time out (albeit back in June), Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare is not without a chance at around the 8/1 mark this afternoon.  Overnight support has emerged for PASTFACT despite the fact that his two wins at the track have been gained on firm ground.  That said, the ‘local’ Malcolm Saunders raider won on his one and only assignment on good to soft going to date, hence the support I’ll wager.  SECRET POTION completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders (via four renewals) have finished in the frame to date, though we still await the first winning favourite.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

2/23—Edged Out (good to firm & firm)

1/1—Delagate The Lord (good)

2/3—Pastfact (2 x form)

2/6—Secret Potion (good & good to soft)

 

3.45: AQUADABRA and SPANISH STAR are the two horses that attract the eye at first glance this morning.  The only course winner in the field, Aquadabra was scoring under very quick conditions here at Bath that day but it’s worth noting that she was beaten less than two lengths on tacky ground at Carlisle on her penultimate start at that stage of her career.  You can ignore the 6/1 quote in the trade press about SPANISH STAR as current 9/2 odds (in three places at the time of writing) are not likely to last long, given that the Requinto gelding is as short as 10/3 with a couple of firms already.  I note that HASTENPLACE ‘splits the books’ as dawn begins to break over the City of Bristol, possibly because Luke Morris takes over in the saddle for the first time aboard Rod Millman’s Compton Place filly.

Favourite factor: This Nursery event is a new race on the Bath card.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/3—Aquadabra (firm)

 

4.15: I prefer the chance of BIG TIME MAYBE of Tom Dascombe’s two Nursery runners in this split (two divisions) two-year-old handicap but even then, slight preference is for ROUNDHAY PARK and MAYGOLD, if you were contemplating a bet from a win perspective.  You will note that I have opted for a large permutation on a quiet day, mainly in the belief that this card looks tailor made to produce a really good Placepot dividend, any which way I look at the six races.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous new (Nursery) event on the programme.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Zain Smarts (good to firm)

1/2—Dreamboat Annie (firm)

 

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4.45: Little wonder that last year’s inaugural winner STORM MELODY has come on for overnight support, as Jonjo O’Neill’s four-year-old Royal Applause gelding carries up to 17 pounds less than when successful twelve months ago, if the relevant claimer can call on all three pounds of his allowance.  George Wood is fair value for that ‘edge’ and when we consider that STORM MELODY races off just a one pound lower mark this time around, his each way/Placepot chance is there for all to see.  Part of the reason for the ‘inbalance’ is the declaration of Pixieleen at the top of the weights, though the Malcolm Saunders raider would be seen to much better effect under faster conditions.  I prefer the likes of DANDILION and OUR LORD as the main threats to the unquestionable selection STORM MELODY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite finished nearer last than first.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Zain Smarts (good to firm)

1/2—Dreamboat Annie (firm)

2/7--Pixieleen (2 x firm)

2/5—Our Lord (good & soft)

2/5—Coronation Cottage (good to firm & firm)

1/3—Storm Melody (good to soft)

1/12--Showmethewayavrilo (soft)

2/5--Archimedes (good to firm & firm)

3/18—Jaganory (good – good to firm – firm)

5/22--Captain Ryan (3 x firm + good to firm + good to soft)

1/2--Prominna (good to soft)

2/11--Burauq (good to firm & good to soft)

Draw details form last year (only renewal to date:

5-14-9-6 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Bath card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Malcolm Saunders (9/34 +7)

5—Tony Carroll (3/23 +8)

4—Milton Bradley (3/30 – loss of 9 points)

3—Patrick Chamings (0/7)

3—Ron Harris (6/32 +16)

3—Steph Hollinshead (1/5 +3)

3—William Muir (0/24)

2—Michael Attwater (3/9 – slight profit)

2—Mick Channon (4/30 – loss of 9 points)

2—Tom Dascombe (0/4)

2—Geoffrey Deacon (1/7 – level on the year)

2—Grace Harris (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/18 +12)

2—Richard Price (1/4 +5)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £158.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers 16th September 2017

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £235.80 (8 favourites - 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 8 (Vibrant Chords), 11 (A Momentofmadness), 12 (Compas Scoobie) & 14 (Captain Colby)

Leg 2 (2.25): 3 (Home Of The Brave), 2 (Aclaim) & 6 (Nathra)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 1 (Dream Today)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Raheen House), 1 (Capri) & 3 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Westerland) & 4 (Regimented)

Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Big Baz), 2 (Muntazah) & 7 (Battered)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won six of the last 10 renewals of the 'Portland', whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last five contests.  The last 12 winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12, whilst middle to high numbers have dominated in recent years as you can see for yourself below.  Indeed, only four horses drawn in the lowest three stalls have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 11 years when 44 opportunities have been up for grabs. Putting the stats and facts together creates a short list of VIBRANT CHORDS (drawn 8/22), A MOMENTOFMADNESS (20) and COMPAS SCOOBY (9).  CAPTAIN COLBY (16) won the race last year with HARRY HURRICANE (7) back in third place (beaten two lengths), the pair both having carried nine stones. The winner is now four pounds better off and seemingly has the best of the draw, whereby I find it a little difficult to comprehend how George Baker’s latter named raider is favoured over the defending champion this morning.  My weight stats support ‘Harry’ but otherwise I would have to plump for the captain to confirm the placings, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 19 years, which is a perfectly respectable ratio given the competitive nature of this event.  Level stake punters would have shown a profit of £850.00 for a one hundred pound investment on market leaders during the study period.  10 of the last 23 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  12 of the last 16 winners were returned at odds ranging between 11/1 and 20/1.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):

12-1-9-16 (20 ran-good)

10-15-1-2 (10 ran-good)

15-9-21-11 (20 ran-good)

12-11-14-17 (21 ran-good to soft)

21-18-12-16 (20 ran-good)

15-7-16-19 (21 ran-good to firm)

7-6-16-8 (22 ran-good)

16-22-2-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

18-9-14-21 (21 ran-soft)

21-11-14-12 (21 ran-good to firm)

5-22-7-4 (21 ran-good to firm)

13-1-8-12 (22 ran-good)

15-22-8-9 (22 ran-good)

20-16-11-2 (22 ran-good)

9-16-19-14 (22 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9-16 (22 ran-good)

16-20-22-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

10-14-8-3 (21 ran-good)

6-22-19-7 (22 ran-good to firm)

Record of course winners in the opening race: 

1/7—Pipers Note (good to firm

1/2—Stake Acclaim (soft)

1/2—Captain Colby (good)

1/1—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)

1/6—Move In Time (good)

 

2.25: HOME OF THE BRAVE has been given an easy season to date and the timing of his assignments this term have proved spot on.  Similarly, Hugo Palmer has enjoyed a fine year and it’s difficult to envisage Hugo’s five-year-old finishing out of the frame.  ACLAIM and NATHRA are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings, especially with Spirit Of Valour disappointing yours truly the last day. Sir Dancealot won’t be far away at an each way price I’ll wager, though Davuid Elsworth’s raider has been kept on the go of late, certainly by comparison to HOME OF THE BRAVE who looks to been targeted for this event for some time.

 

Favourite factor: Ten of the 14 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

8-4-3 (8 ran-good)

7-4-9 (15 ran-good)

1-6 (7 ran-good)

10-9-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-6-2 (8 ran-good)

4-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

8-11-6 (12 ran-good)

6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (9 ran-soft)

1-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3-2 (9 ran-good)

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-1-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

9-1-4 (9 ran-good)

Doncaster record of runners in the third race:

2/3--Breton Rock (good & good to soft)

 

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3.00:  It is disappointing in the extreme that just seven trainers have taken up the challenge of saddling the Group 2 'Champagne' winner this season (only 27 runners have contested the race during the last five years). Yes, MYTHICAL MAGIC is a worthy favourite but Charlie Appleby’s Ifraaj colt is not exactly bombproof from what we have witnessed thus far, so why the lack of interest in this Group 2 event?  DREAM TODAY is preferred to Red Mist of the more likely winners in the line up. Grand Koonta is expected to outrun his (28/1) price but probably not to Placepot effect.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst 13 of the 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

1-5 (6 ran-good)

2-3 (6 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

5 (4 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (5 ran-good)

4-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

3-6 (6 ran-good)

2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

7-8 (7 ran-soft)

9-10-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

8/6 (dead heat)--(7 ran-good to soft)

3-2-9 (10 ran-good to firm)

2-4 (6 ran-good)

8-2-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-5-9 (8 ran-good to soft)

4-8-2 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

8-6-2 (8 ran-good)

4-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

2/4--Humidor (good & good to firm)

1/2--Red Pike (good)

1/4--Hoofalong (good to firm)

1/1--Mukaynis (good to firm)

 

3.35: Aidan O’Brien has saddled the winner of the St Leger four times during the last 16 years, with CAPRI heading a two pronged attack on the last Classic of the season.  The home contingent offer a formidable threat on this occasion however, with CRYSTAL OCEAN, STRADIVARIUS and my each way selection RAHEEN HOUSE among the declarations.  Brian Meehan has pulled several rabbits out of hats down the years and it’s always worth a length or two to have an ‘autumn horse’ at your disposal and RAHEEN HOUSE certainly ran well at the back end last year.  Adam Kirby’s mount has taken his time to return to the area reserved for winners this term but got the job done nicely at Newmarket the last day and at 14/1, Brian’s Sea The Stars colt is the win and place (value for money) call.  It goes without saying that Sea The Stars was also a ‘back end’ thoroughbred have gained his last success in the 2009 running of the ‘Arc’.  Sea The Stars was one of the true superstars of the last decade, winning his last eight races having finished fourth on debut.  CRSTYAL OCEAN is added to the Placepot mix (alongside (CAPRI) as rain is due to hit the Doncaster area at around the start of the meeting, which should suit Sir Michael Stoute’s raider over Stradivarius.

Favourite factor:  Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 20 years.  18 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.  Favourite backers will hope for a better run for their collective monies compared to last year when 4/6 chance Idaho stumbled before unseating his rider.

 

4.20: John Gosden has won with two of the three horses he has saddled in this Nursery event in recent years and in WESTERLAND, John looks to have found the right opportunity for his Frankel colt to return to winning ways.  REGIMENTED has proved popular overnight which is hardly surprising given his record thus far.  Rhosneigr and Makseb are closely matched but I will opt for the first named pair to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 10 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

 

4.50: Three and four-year-olds have both won four renewals of the toteplacepot finale during the last 12 years, with just three contests escaping their grip on the contest.  Last year’s 7/1 winner (Can’t Change It) was among my short listed trio and the 10/1 offer by Bet365 this morning about BIG BAZ suggests that I am taking another decent priced horse to prevail in the Placepot finale.  MUNTAZAH is another each way option to consider, whilst BATTERED completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders, the pick of which is likely to be Sinfonietta.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via 11 renewals during the last 12 years.  Seven of the 13 favourites have finished in the frame (exact science - as in all cases on this page) during the study period.

Doncaster record of runners in the Placepot finale

2/4—Bronze Angel (2 x good)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Saturday – followed by their number of corresponding winners on the day on Town Moor during the last six years:

8 runners—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner)

4—John Gosden (2)

3—David O’Meara (2)

3—Roger Varian (2)

2—Andrew Balding

2—Tim Easterby

2—Richard Fahey

2—Charlie Hills (2)

2—Dean Ivory

2—Mark Johnston (1)

2—William Muir

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

71 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £75.20 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Chester: £472.10 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £185.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Musselburgh: £121.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,078.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 5 (Tigre Du Terre) & 2 (Aqabah)

Leg 2 (1.50): 12 (Tomyris), 5 (Tallayeb) & 1 (Unforgetable Filly)

Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (Heartache) & 1 (Havana Grey)

Leg 4 (3.00): 7 (Time To Study) & 3 (Penglai Pavilion)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Montaly), 8 (She Is No Lady), 4 (High Jinx) & 3 (Fun Mac)

Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Ghaiyyath), 10 (Tiffin Top) & 5 (Military Law)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: Of the three horses that figured strongly in the market when the final runners were declared, TIGRE DU TERRE is holding up best at the time of writing.  Drying ground will suit Richard Hannon’s raider and with Ryan Moore booked to ride the Le Havre colt, the Hannon/Moore bandwagon should prevail again.  Of the other pair, AQABAH is preferred to Zaaki.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have prevailed in this Listed event, whilst eight of the 12 renewals contested during the last 13 years were also secured by market leaders.

 

1.50: Three-year-olds have won 16 of the last 20 renewals (including 14 of the last 16) and with 10 of the 13 declarations representing the junior vintage this time around (77% of the field), the result should revert back to type after last year’s trend buster.  Middle to high numbers have generally held the edge down the years and taking all the stats and facts into account, my short list comprises of TOMYRIS (drawn 12/13), TALLAYEB (8) and UNFORGETTABLE FILLY (7), a trio which should gain a couple of Placepot positions between them.  The draw numbers went base over apex on the only ‘recent’ occasion the race was contested under good to soft decisions but that said, just eight runners took part on the relevant day.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this race in the last 20 years whilst eight market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

6-7 (7 ran-good)

4-15-8 (20 ran-good)

9-4-16 (15 ran-good)

3-6-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

16-17-1 (18 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

10-7-9 (13 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-9-6 (12 ran-soft)

3-8-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

4-6-10 (9 ran-good)

7-2-13 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-16-19 (17 ran-good)

8-10-7 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-12-13 (13 ran-good)

13-7-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

9-5-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

5-4-11 (14 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1--Pirouette (good)

 

2.25: HEARTACHE is a filly of outstanding ability and the Queen Mary winner can be considered unlucky not to have kept her unbeaten record intact on the continent the last day.  Bumped leaving the stalls, Clive Cox’s Kyllachy filly never quite recovered from the early setback, though Clive’s February foal is expected to bounce back successfully today.  That said, the declaration of HAVANA GREY sets up a fascinating clash as Karl Burke’s colt ‘only’ has to give the filly three pounds.  Speculative investors might offer YOGI’S GIRL a chance of beating the other six horses home, albeit at a respectable distance behind the front pair.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 10 of the 22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.  Only one the last 75 horses sent off at 12/1 or more has won this race when sent off at odds of 12/1 or more, statistics which equate to a level stake loss of 58 points.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

10-3-11 (11 ran-good)

3-6-1 (9 ran-good)

3-14-1 (14 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good soft)

7-1-6 (9 ran-good)

2-4-1 (10 ran-good)

2-11-10 (12 ran-good)

9-2-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

11-7-6 (12 ran-soft)

4-3-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-9-4 (9 ran-heavy)

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7-3-12 (11 ran-firm)

6-12-3 (13 ran-good)

8-7-1 (14 ran-good to firm)

13-12-14 (13 ran-good)

3-6-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

13-7-9 (14 ran-good to firm)

2-8-6 (13 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.00: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-5 or less, whilst ten three-year-olds have won during the study period.  The only junior raider (Wall Of Fire) won last year and Mark Johnston (TIME TO STUDY) is seemingly the only trainer who reads this column!  Please take that last comment with the proverbial ‘pinch of salt’ but you hopefully catch my drift.  Last Saturday’s ‘endurance test’ at Haydock on poor ground should have set up TIME TO STUDY enough to snare this prize, with the general offer of 7/2 making plenty of appeal this morning.  PENGLAI PAVILION is feared most.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, though only four of the other eighteen favourites claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of the Doncaster Cup (lone raider Quest for more finished second twelve months ago) and this year’s two representatives MONTALY and FUN MAC are the first pair to be added into my Placepot permutation this time around.  The pair are listed in order of preference with Andrerw Balding’s first named raider holding definite chance from a win perspective.  As much as I love this St Leger meeting however, nothing would prize cash out of my pocket aside from a Placepot wager as far as this event is concerned.  Other each way types such as SHE IS NO LADY and HIGH JINX add plenty of interest.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have won the Doncaster Cup since 1998, whilst 11 of the other 14 favourites during the study period finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Doncaster Cup:

1/3--Clever Cookie (soft)

1/4--High Jinx (good to soft)

1/1—Pallastor (good)

2/2—Skeikhzayedroad (2 x good)

1/1—Thomas Hobson (soft)

 

4.05:  John Gosden has been the trainer to follow on the third day of the meeting in recent years and having declared two runners in the race, the chances of TIFFIN TOP and MILITARY LAE are respected.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH comes into his first race with a tall reputation, confirmed by his entries in the ‘Royal Lodge’ and the Racing Post Trophy later this season.

Favourite factor:  Three of the last ten favourites have won during which time, six winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.  That said, the other four winners scored at 16/1, 14/1-12/1 and 10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their number of winners on Town Moor on the corresponding day in recent years:

3 runners—Charlie Appleby

3—Tom Dascombe

3—Tim Easterby

3—John Gosden (5)

3—Richard Hannon (2)

2—Ralph Beckett

2—Karl Burke

2—Mick Channon

2—Clive Cox

2—Keith Dalgleish

2—Brian Ellison

2—David Evans

2—Hughie Morrison

2—Aidan O’Brien

2—Hugo Palmer (1)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (1)

2—John Ryan

2—Roger Varian (3)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

75 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £21.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed

Salisbury: £31.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Sandown: £49.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 14th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £5,101.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 10 (Kenny The Captain), 5 (Vimy Ridge) & 3 (Related)

Leg 2 (1.50): 3 (Silver Starlight), 5 (Clubbable) & 2 (Ellthea)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Sizzling), 5 (Nyaleti) & 2 (Dark Rose Angel)

Leg 4 (3.00): 8 (Detailed), 7 (Aljezeera) & 9 (Melodic Motion)

Leg 5 (3.35): 3 (Danzan), 11 (Great Prospector), 7 (Laugh A Minute) & 4 (Aireen Faisal)

Leg 6 (4.05): 4 (Al Neksh)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: Apologies offered for what will seem a restricted service having reacted badly to my umpteenth flu jab yesterday which has never happened before. Tim Easterby found a fine opportunity (as reported on Wednesday) for Off Art to win the novelty race yesterday and the trainer could double up in the Ladies’ race on the card with KENNY THE CAPTAIN.  The pick of the outsiders could prove to be VIMY RIDGE (Alan Bailey has been in fine form these last few weeks) and RELATED who will be partnered by the much underrated Holly Doyle for the first time.  A sixteenth runner in the race would have helped.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings on day two of the St Leger Festival.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Hoofalong (good to firm)

1/11—Khelman (heavy)

1/5—Kenny The Captain (soft)

1/5—Seamster (good to firm)

 

1.50: 14 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, with the top weight The Mums eliminated from my inquiries this time around accordingly. This race constantly destroys the dreams of 'Potters' the length and breadth of the land at the first time of asking on the second day of the St Leger meeting, though this is the smallest assembled field for the contest in many years.  Overnight money has (seemingly) arrived for SILVER STARLIGHT which could enable Tim Easterby to make a wonderful start to the second day of the meeting, connections probably having most to fear from CLUBBABLE and soft ground winner ELLTHEA.

Favourite factor: Four of the 19 market leaders have prevailed thus far, whilst only six of the other 15 market leaders claimed additional toteplacepot positions.  Aside from the winning 7/4, 9/4 3/1 and 9/2 favourites, other scorers included those returned at 20/1--20/1--16/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--12/1--10/1.

Draw factor (six and a half furlongs – the most renewal is listed first):

3-2-6 (12 ran-good)

20-19-6-16 (19 ran-good)

11-3-13-12 (17 ran-good)

10-2-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

17-1-14-19 (18 ran-good)

1-4-5 (13 ran-good)

1-12-6-10 (18 ran-good)

7-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

16-2-14-8 (16 ran-soft)

3-9-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-8-9 (13 ran-heavy)

11-4-10 (14 ran-firm)

15-12-11-14 (22 ran-good)

5-6-14-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

19-1-14-3 (20 ran-good)

12-22-8-21 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-13-17-16 (17 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25: Godolphin has secured four of the last six renewals when represented, though the blue colours are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion.  NYALETI arguably deserves her place towards the head of the market though in terms of value for money, Aidan O’Brien’s soft ground winner SIZZLING and course winner DARK ROSE ANGEL make more appeal from an each way perspective, if you are considering a wager in the contest aside from our Placepot interest.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have won during the last 20 years (including five of the last ten favourites), whilst 15 of the 20 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dark Rose Angel (good)

1/1—Laurens (good)

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won 12 of the last 20 renewals, though four-year-olds have won five of the last seven contests.  Another Irish raider (from Joseph O’Brien’s yard this time) makes the most appeal with heavy/soft ground winner DETAILED expected to figure prominently, even though the Motivator representative is hiked up in class.  The odds compliers at Stan James might live to regret the 16/1 quote this morning, especially from an each way angle.  ALJEZEERA and MELODIC MOTION are feared most.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have prevailed during the last 20 years, alongside one co favourite of three.  13 of the 23 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Dubka (soft)

1/1—Aljazeera (good to firm)

 

3.35: Horses drawn middle to high have secured an edge in recent times as you can clearly see below and the pick of those drawn ‘favourably’ on this occasion include DANZAN (15/22), GREAT PROSPECTOR (10) and AREEN FAISAL (13).  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing. Media ‘experts’ fall over themselves to tell you that the type of trends I look at are irrelevant because “it all depends where the pace in the race is”.  That has a bearing obviously, though generally it is their idleness that conveniently draws them to that conclusion! If the experts prove to be right over and above my viewpoint this time around, LAUGH A MINUTE (drawn 3) could make yours truly eat his words on this occasion.

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Favourite factor: 10 of the 18 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions which is a fair record in this competitive event (four successful market leaders in the last 11 years), especially as just three places are up for grabs in this cavalry charge.  These results exclude last year’s 7/2 favourite which was withdrawn just before the start before a new market could be formed.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Requinto Dawn (good to soft)

 

Draw factor (six and a half furlongs):

16-3-22 (19 ran-good)

20-21-8 (22 ran-good

20-11-6-10 (21 ran-good)

15-17-21 (21-good to soft)

10-7-6 (21 ran-good)

13-4-19 (21 ran-good)

4-12-2 (21 ran-good)

21-4-1 (19 ran-good to firm)

16-17-9 (21 ran-soft)

7-20-13 (22 ran-good to firm)

10-18-15 (22 ran-good to firm)

12-17-19 (22 ran-good)

5-15-13 (22 ran-good)

17-18-21 (21 ran-good)

22-20-17 (22 ran-good to firm)

4-10-3 (22 ran-good)

6-1-18 (21 ran-good to firm)

11-4-20 (22 ran-good)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have secured six of the last eleven renewals, whilst horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have won nine contests during the last twelve years.  Just one four-year-old has been declared this time around (wake up and smell the coffee trainers) and having dug a deep hole for myself by including so many horses in the first five races in my Placepot permutation, I am left hoping that AL NEKSH can maintain the good run of vintage representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale during which time, two winners have emerged.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Thursday – followed by number of winners at Doncaster on this corresponding day during the last six years:

9 runners—Richard Fahey (4 winners)

5—Richard Hannon (-)

3—Ralph Beckett (2)

3—Karl Burke (-)

3—Mick Channon (1)

3—Mark Johnston (-)

3—Joseph O’Brien (-)

2—Luca Cumani (4)

2—Keith Dalgleish (-)

2—Tim Easterby (-)

2—James Fanshawe (-)

2—William Haggas (2)

2—Paul Midgley (1)

2—Aidan O’Brien (1)

2—Kevin Ryan (1)

2—David Simcock (1)

2—Richard Spencer (-)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £138.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners- 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Epsom: £42.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Hexham: £479.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 13th September

DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £231.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Shabaaby), 3 (Deamons Rock), 4 (John Kirkup) & 1 (Beatbox Rhythm)

Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Guzman), 5 (Crownthorpe) & 2 (Nobleman’s Nest)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Final Venture) & 2 (Desert Law)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Off Art) & 4 (Hitman)

Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Lahore) & 1 (Hyde Park)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Sunbal), 1 (Mount Logan), 5 (Mirage Dancer) & 2 (Red Verdon)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: It remains to be seen what influence the weather has at Doncaster today but in the meantime on the projected soft ground, this is the first of two four runner (win only) contests on Town Moor this afternoon.  Such events tend to produce good Placepot dividends though one is needed on the opening day of the meeting for speculative investors as the last three pots have produced an average divi of just £209.03, which for a top meeting on the racing calendar does not read well.  That comment understates my thoughts, especially with the ‘past veterans’ race to negotiate half way through the Placepot card.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting the ground is responsible (as much as anything else) for yours truly including all four runners in the first race before retiring to the bar.  If pushed to make a selection I guess I would go with last time out soft ground winner Shabaaby, but all three rivals have genuine claims for one reason or another.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have prevailed (though only four of the last sixteen), whilst eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

2.50: 12 of the most recent 18 available win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more, statistics which include four (25/1-9/2-9/2-9/4) of the seven winners of late.  Unfortunately, only Ventura Quest qualifies via the weight trend this time around and with Mark Johnston’s raider having shown a distinct liking for faster ground thus far, I have to swerve the trend on this occasion.  Richard Fahey (saddled last year’s winning favourite) has thrown a spanner in the works having declared three horses and it’s worth noting that GUZMAN was coming in for some support at the time of writing.  Stable companion CROWNTHORPE looks the stronger option on paper though with Paul Hanagan riding the first named representative, I’m struggling to split the pair.  NOBLEMAN’S NEST won his inly race to date (via just three assignments) on the one occasion that the Poet’s Voice raider has contested a race with moisture in the ground (good to soft) which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (9/2, 3/1 & 13/8) winners.

 

 

3.20: 16 of the last 17 winners of this Listed event have carried weights of 9-7 or more which eliminated the bottom three (of six runners in total) from my enquiries.  FINAL VENTURE and DESERT LAW are my tentative selections in a race in which I have cut my own throat to a fashion (no applause please) as I have limited myself to just two ‘selections’, having opted for all four runners in the ‘win only’ races on the Placepot card.  Thesme finished second in the race last year and I guess he might have figured in my mix but for my preference to go for broke in the win only events, notwithstanding the fact that Nigel Tinkler’s raider sits (marginally) the wrong side of the weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst 14 of the 22 market leaders reached the frame during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/5—Desert Law (good)

 

3.50: Regular readers will know that I am not a great fan of novelty races (unless I select a winner!) in the middle of a meeting when toteplacepot bets are affected.  This sport is (or should be) about fitness of horse and rider and there has to be a doubt about the 100% fitness of some of the retired pilots on this occasion. Little wonder that I am (along with plenty of readers I’ll wager) critical of the powers that be that are (supposedly) in charge of the sport.  That said, we appear to have an edge on our side as four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, whereby HITMAN could represent some each way value.  However, Tim Easterby appears to have found an opportunity for OFF ART to record his first win since the Magna Carta was signed many years ago!  Tim has enjoyed his share of success at this meeting down the years, most notably of course when Bollin Eric won the St Leger for the north back in 2002.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (all winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/7—Off Art (good to soft)

 

4.20: Seven of the ten winners to date have carried 9-3 or less whereby the chance of LAHORE is respected, especially as Roger Varian’s Elusive Quality colt is the only one of the projected leading fancies to be maintaining its overnight price of 3/1 at the time of writing.  We have to take a chance that Roger’s dual winner will act on the ground but then again, that’s what the sport of kings is all about.  There is no ‘community chest’ to draw from in this pastime unfortunately!  HYDE PARK could hardly be class as a prolific winner, though his two victories have come towards the back end of the season in the past and I cannot help but notice that Frankie Dettori’s mount is John Gosden’s only runner on the card.  The weight stats are against HYDE PARK but possibly not from a Placepot perspective.  The reserve nomination is awarded to NIGHT CIRCUS representing Charlie Appleby’s in form team.

Favourite factor: Four of the thirteen market leaders (via ten renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date (no winners).

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Hyde Park (good)

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1/1—Lahore (good to firm)

 

 

4.50: I think I have made my intentions clear throughout the analysis that I would be including all four runners in my Placepot mix in the final leg of our favourite wager.  Yes, Mount Logan won the race last year but this ground could be the ‘leveller’ that brings about a different result on this occasion though obviously, I am not willing to omit Roger Varian’s six-year-old from the equation.  Favourites have a good record in the race as has Mount Logan (see both sets of stats below) but small fields have a habit of producing surprise results and a win for any of his three rivals could rubber stamp a decent Placepot return.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, the four market leaders which failed to win all missed out on Placepot positions.  It's also worth pointing out that although favourites have a good record, two of the last seven winners scored at 22/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Mount Logan (good & good to soft)

1/1—Mirage Dancer (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (4/69 – loss of 32 points)

3—Clive Cox (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

3—Michael Dods (0/18)

3—Richard Hannon (8/52 – loss of 4 points)

3—Paul Midgley (2/16 +11)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/4)

2—Karl Burke (loss of 14 points)

2—Ruth Carr (1/18 – loss of 11 points)

2—Simon Crisford (2/6 +1)

2—Scott Dixon (0/19)

2—Michael Mullineaux (1/5 +8)

2—Kevin Ryan (1/21 – loss of 17 points)

2—Roger Varian (4/22 – loss of 6 points)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £426.00 – 8 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £322.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £97.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 11th September

BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £168.60 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unoplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 6 (Flowing Clarets), 2 (Storm Cry) & 4 (Monteamiata)

Leg 2 (2.55): 4 (Rastrelli) & 5 (Sarstedt)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Black Caesar), 4 (King Of Swing) & 7 (East Coast Lady)

Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Delannoy), 6 (Ablaze) & 7 (African Quest)

Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Av A Word) & 3 (Haulani)

Leg 6 (4.55): 11 (Ronni Layne), 8 (Latest Quest) & 4 (Luxford)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.25: The going is officially soft overnight, though it’s worth noting that it is pouring down here in Bristol in the middle of the night, whilst 50mph winds accompany the wet stuff so it all depends on what transpires on the south coast over the next few hours I guess.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that four-year-olds have won three of the six contests to date whilst securing six of the 10 available toteplacepot positions thus far (vintage was not represented last year).  Only John Bridger appears to have been live to the stat having declared FLOWING CLARETS down at the bottom of the handicap.  The two three-year-olds in the field represent the biggest threat from my viewpoint, namely STORM CRY and MONTEAMIATA.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (8/11-6/4-11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/7—One Big Surprise (good to firm)

4/23—Whitecrest (2 x good – good to firm – good to soft)

 

2.25: Have you ever had the feeling that ‘new rules’ are invented for the benefit of bookmakers and not punters?  Look at the ‘favourite stats’ below if you want to take issue with that comment.  Freedom of speech allowed here guys, freedom of speech.  Only three of the six runners can be taken seriously though it looks as though Bet365 have accommodated a few quid at 50’s about Swift Fox because in a race like this, that’s about as much as the bookmakers want to lay.  On a potentially windy day on uncertain ground at the time of writing, I’m going to side with the pair with a couple of races under their respective belts already, namely RASTRELLI and SARSTEDT though of course, Mark Johnston’s newcomer Illusional would not have to be out of the ordinary to make a complete fool of me.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card via its novice status.  That said, the distance and class of the race has not changed, whereby I am listing the following stats for the last time if you believe they are relevant (like yours truly) this afternoon.  All eight favourites have finished in the money thus far via seven renewals, one market leader having been withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed.  Five (8/15-8/11-5/4-11/8-2/1) favourites have obliged to date but note that market leaders at odds of 1/3 & 8/11 have been beaten from a win perspective thus far. Two gold medallists were returned at 40/1 and 25/1.

 

3.25: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals (when represented) but William Stone is the only trainer to have smelt the coffee in recent days, having declared the lone vintage representative EAST COAST LADY.  I fully appreciate that the Kodiac mare has a lot on her plate here, though 9/1 was a very acceptable price about the five-year-old winner (Jackblack) at Fontwell yesterday (as advised) who was one of only two relevant entries, vintage representatives having won the previous seven renewals of the race.  Make that eight now!  I will concede that more likely winners include recent scorers BLACK CAESAR and KING OF SWING but at 28/1, East Coast Lady is surely worth a florin each way. Where else can you read this 'informed nonsense'?

Favourite factor: Only two of the ten favourites (via eight renewals) have reached the (exact science) frame to date (no winners).

Record of course winners in the third event on the card:

4/14—Black Caesar (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

4/16—Good Luck Charm (2 x good to firm – good – firm)

1/5—Sarangoo (good to soft)

1/1—El Torito (good to firm)

3/12—Live Dangerously (2 x good to soft & good)

 

3.55: All seven winners carried a minimum weight of 8-13, as have 15 of the 18 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.  Six of the seven declarations qualify for the overnight short list, the pick of which could include DELANNOY and BROUGHTONS ADMIRAL.  Neil Mulholland saddled a winner under the other code down the road at Fontwell yesterday and though searching for his first winner at Brighton at the seventh attempt, Neil will have some confidence going into the contest.  Below the trend barrier, I note that there has been overnight interest in AFRICAN QUEST which might have something to do with a hike up in trip for Gary Moore’s filly.  Ablaze is another to take into consideration in what looks to be a trappy event.

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Favourite factor: Four of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame following seven renewals, statistics which include one (9/4) winner.  Search parties are still out looking for the beaten 4/7 favourite who missed out on a Placepot position two years ago.

 

4.25: All five winners have carried a minimum of nine stones at odds of 10/1-7/1-7/1-4/1-2/5*.  Unfortunately (always looking for an edge) five of the six runners qualify on this occasion, with the unbeaten Brighton pair AV A WORD and HAULANI arguably offering value for money here in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Philip Hide (HAULANI) has saddled more winners on the level this season (sixteen in total) than the trainer managed during the last three seasons collectively added to the fact that 44% of those gold medallists were saddled here at Brighton in 2017.  The 3/3 record of Av A Word is obviously factor to take into consideration, especially of the wet stuff swerves the south downs.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, with last year’s 2/5 market leader having prevailed.

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/1--Haulani (good to soft)

3/3—Av A Word (2 x good to firm & good)

 

4.55: Horses carrying 8-13 or less have claimed all five renewals of the Placepot finale to date, statistics which bring in the likes of RONNI LAYNE and LATEST QUEST (via a claiming pilot) into the overnight mix.  9/1 is still available regarding RONNIE LAYNE who comes to the gig bang on the 8-13 mark with Conrad Allen having saddled a winner the other day at Wolverhampton.  I’ve a notion that Paddy Power’s quote might not last too long this morning, win, lose or draw.  LUXFORD is the potential villain of the peace from my viewpoint, with John Best having saddled two of his last five runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Two of the seven favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale via five renewals, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Gary Moore (7/34 +35)

3—John Bridger (2/26 – loss of 15 points)

3—John Jenkins (0/2)

3—Mark Johnston (6/15 +4)

2—Jim Boyle (4/23 +39)

2—Richard Hannon (7/25 +19)

2—Philip Hide (7/23 - +11)

2—Richard Hughes (6/34 - loss of 3 points)

2—Sylvester Kirk (3/19 – level profit/loss on the season)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newton Abbot: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Perth: £1,288.70 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

 

 

 

 

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