Placepot Pointers – Friday 19th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.20 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Summer Thunder) & 4 (Red Snapper)

Leg 2 (1.25): 4 (Inuk), 2 (Avon Green) & 5 (Hornby)

Leg 3 (2.00): 1 (Jumping Jack), 6 (Bayston Hill) & 5 (Music Major)

Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Human Nature), 8 (Show Stealer) & 1 (Kachy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Conkering Hero) & 2 (Strictly Art)

Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Native Appeal) & 6 (Shakour)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: SUMMER THUNDER (1/2) and RED SNAPPER (9/2) are solid prices right across the board in the dead of night in a race which the pair look set to dominate at the business end of proceedings.  Whether the favourite would have had more petrol in the tank when returned as the beaten 13/8 market leader the last day at Kempton had he not dwelt at the start remains unknown though either way, there was precious little left to offer close home.  This race should tell us more about his resolve.  I wouldn’t care to take a price about either horse personally though from a Placepot perspective, they look home and hosed in such a weak contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Lingfield.

 

1.25: The previous six winners had all carried a minimum burden of 9-3 before last year’s 33/1 winner upset the heavily laden apple-cart.  The first race on the card will act as a marker for supporters of course winner INUK who finished just over a length adrift of Summer Thunder last time out.  Either way, 7/4 looks skinny enough about the Richard Hughes raider, albeit his Placepot claims are there for all to see.  Joseph Tuite saddled a winner yesterday whereby there will be some confidence behind AVON GREEN I’ll wager, whilst HORNBY completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Just one (6/4) favourite has obliged via seven renewals, two of which were won by horses returned at 33/1 and 10/1. Three of the seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one beaten 1/2 favourite from a win perspective.

Course winner in the second event:

1/3--Inuk

 

2.00: There is plenty of money in the realistic positive exchange queue for both BAYSTON HILL and JUMPING JACK at the time of writing, the first named runner being closely linked with MUSIC MAJOR via recent form lines.  This trio should get us into the second half of the Placepot equation between them, albeit Miss Minuty should not be far away at the jamstick though ‘value for money’ is the worry regarding Jeremy Scott’s projected favourite.  If Colourful Career prevails, it will be yet another case of taking the wrong stance about an Ed Dunlop runner, a trainer I rarely (if ever) call the right way!

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Lingfield programme.

Course winners in the third race:

3/5—Miss Minuty

1/6—Cayuga

3/9—Music Major

1/4—Bayston Hill

 

2.30: HUMAN NATURE makes some appeal at the (bet to nothing) each way price of 5/1 this morning, with Milly Naseb still offering fair value from the saddle via her seven pound claim.  Trainer Stuart Williams is in decent enough form whilst he has saddled more A/W winners at Lingfield than at any other venue, one of two turf-less venues (alongside Chelmsford) where he boasts a level stake profit down the years.  SHOW STEALER and KACHY are feared most.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold (7/2) and Silver (5/2) medals whist securing Placepot positions.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Certificate

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1/8—Zac Brown

1/8—Kasbah

1/1—Show Stealer

 

3.05: It would come as no surprise if course winner STRICTLY ART outruns his each way price in this grade/company, albeit CONKERING HERO might still be ahead of the handicapper for a week or two.  The latter named raider is Joseph Tuite’s second runner on the card with realistic claims, with this pair preferred to Ban Shoof at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Lingfield card.

Course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Ban Shoof

1/2—Strictly Art

1/1—Conkering Hero

1/1—Oregon Gift

1/5—Barthomomew J

1/3—Sanches

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby saddled eight runners ‘out east’ at Meydan yesterday resulting in two winners.  Charlie’s raider NATIVE APPEAL should prove difficult to beat, let alone claiming a Placepot position, especially with (seemingly) only SHAKOUR to beat.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is yet another new event.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

2 runners—Michael Attwater (0/6) – 35/466 – loss of 61 points

2—David Evans (2/4 +7) – 82/603 – loss of 177

2—Joseph Tuite (0/2) – 10/102 – loss of 5

2—Charlie Wallis (0/2) – 2/47 – loss of 28

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £302.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £217.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 18th January

 

LUDLOW – JANUARY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£465.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Melangerie) & 9 (Passing Call)

Leg 2 (1.30): 4 (Shaama Gris), 2 (Happy Diva), 1 (Copper Kay) & 3 (Midnight Target)

Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Aubusson), 5 (Champagne At Tara) & 3 (Sego Success)

Leg 4 (2.35): 4 (Gortroe Joe), 10 (Master Tradesman) & 2 (Darius Des Bois)

Leg 5 (3.10): 1 (Mendip Express) & 2 (Now Ben)

Leg 6 (3.45): 9 (Gamain) & 6 (Allbarnine)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.00:  James Bowen let the side down relating to his mount Percy Street at Newbury on Wednesday, though MELANGERIE looks a slightly more resolute type with which to go to war with, now accepting that the jockey’s ratio for Nicky Henderson this season has slipped to 5/10!  MELANGERIE came good at the third time of asking over course and distance timber under similar conditions the last day, with connections probably having most to fear from PASSING CALL who represents Alan King who has a decent record at the venue, as you can determine at the foot of the column.
Favourite factor: This is a new race at Ludlow with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Melangerie (soft)

 

1.30: Putting the words mares, novices and steeplechase together does not install a great deal of confidence, especially when contemplating a ‘win only’ event.  The 14/1 quote about Midnight Target is not even off-putting (Paddy Power are well over the top early doors this morning – as short as 8/1 elsewhere), especially as John Croucott’s mare is the only course winner in the line-up representing a trainer whose record here is better than at most other venues.  Yes, the other trio boast more obvious winning claims, though not enough to leave the outsider out of the Placepot mix.  For the record, the ‘main contenders’ are listed in marginal order of preference as SHAAMA GRIS, HAPPY DIVA and COPPER KAY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite duly prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/8—Midnight Target (good)

 

2.00:  Four of the last seven runners saddled by Nick Williams have won, stats which include a 167/1 treble yesterday when Nick’s fourth contender on the day secured a silver medal.  Nick’s only two runners today run on this card, the first of which is AUBUSSON who is overdue another success to add to the four successes thus far, albeit the last of those victories was boasted over two years ago.  The switch back to more conventional fencing following two cross country assignments might bring about a return to winning form.  CHAMPAGNE AT TARA has been a similarly frustrating sort in recent times, whilst SEGO SUCCESS completes what I confess to being a ‘speculative’ trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

 

2.35:  Richard Mitford-Slade (two of his last four runners have won) is the latest trainer to take advantage of the outrageous five poind claim of James Bowen and it’s worth noting that the relevant horse MASTER TREADESMAN has been the subject of some overnight support at big prices.  At the time of writing at least, the 25/1 quote in the trade press for the seven-year-old looks fanciful.  Others of some interest in a disappointing event include GORTROE JOE and DARIUS DES BOIS.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

 

3.10: No matter which way you throw the dice in these amateur rider events, jockeyship is of maximum importance and with MENDIP EXPRESS and NOW BEN being ridden by good pilots with plenty of experience in the saddle, their respective Placepot chances are there for all to see, not that I would be having any other bet in the contest.  Virak hit an official ‘dizzy height’ of 159 two years ago but just six subsequent assignments have seen his rating drop 20 pounds and until we witness a return to form by the Paul Nicholls raider, I will swerve the nine-year-old, despite the concession of weight by my two ‘selections’.
Favourite factor: The Hunter Chase event on the card is another new race at Ludlow today.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Now Ben (good)

2/4—Tugboat (good & soft)

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3.45: Given the Nick Williams stats offered in the third race, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the Placepot claims (at least) of GAMAIN who is due to carry five pounds in future, whatever result transpires this afternoon.  ALLBARNONE is the first Gary Hanmer inmate to take to the racecourse in a while whereby the overnight support for the ten-year-old catches the eye, especially with a five pound claimer in the plate.  The reserve nomination is awarded to THE SWEENEY in a race which will not take a great deal of winning, despite the number of runners facing the starter.

Favourite factor: Another new race to assess.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/14 +2) – 32/113 – loss of 21 points

4—Dan Skelton (4/17 +1) – 22/95 – loss of 8

3—John Groucott (0/7) – 4/36 +4

3—Philip Hobbs (0/14) – 28/127 – loss of 17

2—Rebecca Curtis (1/6 – level profit/loss this season) – 9/59 – loss of 30

2—Henry Daly (3/17 – loss of 6) – 23/133 – loss of 36

2—Nigel Hawke (0/3) – 2/22 +6

2—Alan King (1/5 +10) – 12/57 +12

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 3/72 – loss of 45

2—Graeme McPherson (2/4 +20) – 2/28 – loss of 4

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/14 – loss of 6) – 10/102 – loss of 55)

2—John O’Shea (0/1) – 0/32

2—David Pipe (1/10 – loss of 4) 10/65 – marginal loss

2—Katy Price (0/2) – 1/7 – loss of 3 points

2—Venetia Williams (0/11) – 21/162 – loss of 71

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wincanton: £96.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £87.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 1 unplaced – 1 N/R

Southwell: £250.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 17th January

NEWBURY – JANUARY 17

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£5,155.70 (7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 3 (Percy Street), 7 (Friday Night Live) & 1 (Final Choice)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Ok Corral) & 12 (Whatswrongwithyou)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Saint Calvados) & 3 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Indy Five), 5 (You Say What), 10 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Two Smokin Barrels)

Leg 5 (3.30): 11 (Kupatana) & 2 (Lady Of Lamanver)

Leg 6 (4.05): 7 (Morning Vicar), 8 (Up To No Good) & 1 (Baddesley Knight)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

1.20:  I cannot ignore the fact (for openers) that James Bowen has ridden five winners for Nicky Henderson this season from just nine opportunities whereby the booking of this year’s sensational ‘newcomer’ for PERCY STREET catches the eye in no uncertain terms.  FRIDAY NGHT LIVE could be anything entering the handicap division for the first time, whilst FINAL CHOICE gets the marginal nod over The Green Ogre for the third spot in my permutation.  The record of Paul Henderson here at Newbury (0/32) suggests that the price of Doitforthevillage is plenty short enough at 7/2 at the time of writing.  If the nine-year-old wins I lose, that’s racing.
Favourite factor: The opening event on the Newbury card is a new race with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/3—Final Choice (good to soft)

 

1.50:  Local trainer Nicky Henderson secured the first running of this event twelve months ago and the Seven Barrows handler saddles a strong contender in proven soft ground winner O K CORRAL who only contests his fourth race, despite being an eight-year-old.  There have obviously been lots of problems relating to Nicky’s Mahler gelding though fortunately, owner ‘JP’ has a few quid in the bank to take care of such individuals.  Nicky throws a spanner in the works however, having also declared WHATSWRONGWITHYOU who has handled this type of ground plenty well enough in the past to suggest that the seven-year-old should not be merely passed off as the ‘second string’ of the two inmates.  What’s Occurring is fancied to run into a place (probably at a respectable distance behind the front pair) at a double figure price.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 9/4 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position last year by sneaking a bronze medal.

 

2.25: As suggested so many times already by this columnist, Harry Whittington remains one of the underrated trainers in the sport from my viewpoint, a comment that will hopefully be endorsed today by another victory for his heavy ground course and distance winner SAINT CALVADOS.  Although only two runners finished the course when scoring at the first time of asking in this green and pleasant land, SAINT CALVADOS is now a winner of four of his five starts and should be followed until beaten according to yours truly.  That said, his three rivals here are all entitled to take their respective chances, the pick of which will arguably prove to be TREE OF LIBERTY given the ground on which Kerry Lee’s raider improved a fair few pounds the last day when scoring at Ludlow when making his debut for the yard.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Saint Calvados (heavy)

 

3.00: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst eight-year-olds have secured four victories during the same period. Proven soft ground winner INDY FIVE boasts ticks in both of the trend boxes and with trainer David Dennis having saddled six of his last 21 runners to winning effect (level stake profit of 25 points during the period), David’s progressive dual winner can take this hike up in class in his stride.  Others to consider include fellow vintage raider YOU SAY WHAT (David Pipe secured a 14/1 double on the corresponding card three years ago) and HORATIO HORNBLOWER whose course victory dilutes the negative weight factor to a fashion.  The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to TWO SMOKIN BARRELS.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Horatio Hornblower (good)

 

3.30:  Nicky Henderson will be looking to make amends for last year’s beaten odds on favourite who was cruising through to lead at the business end of the contest before falling with the prize at his mercy.  Nicky saddles KUPATNA this time around and though the price will not be as ‘skinny’ as those on offer last year, Nico’s mount will be plenty warm enough following a half decent victory ‘between the flags’ ten months ago.  LADY OF LAMANVER is not holding up too badly in the market against Nicky’s hot pot overnight in all honesty and having run a couple of good races under soft conditions before now, Harry Fry’s raider should figure prominently, though the six pound concession to KAUATANA could prove to be a tough ask.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite snared a bronze medal alongside a toteplacpot position before last year’s 4/9 looked like scoring in facile fashion before coming down two from home.

 

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4.05: Five-year-olds have won both renewals thus far, albeit vintage representatives have accounted for 55% of the total number of runners via just the two contests.  Vintage representatives are 5/6 to land the treble between them before ‘form’ is taken into account, with the pick of the relevant sextet on this occasion likely to prove to be MORNING VICAR and UP TO NO GOOD.  The horses hail from the highly successful local yards of Nicky Henderson and Warren Greatrex and it will be something of a shock if both horses fail to finish in the frame.  That said, horses who are not going to win at the first time of asking are often ‘looked after’ by riders on the run to the line whereby I am taking out insurance on BADDESLEY KNIGHT who only just lost out in a three way fight at Fontwell on his first day at school, with the fourth horse finishing well adrift of the trio.  Conditions will be much softer on this occasion however whereby another Placepot position might please the relevant connections well enough in what should prove to be an informative contest.

Favourite factor:  Detective are still searching for the two market leaders to date who both missed out on Placepot positions at odds of 6/5 and 15/8.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (7/25 +10) – 222/1096 – loss of 92 points

4—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 10/108 – loss of 36

4—Seamus Mullins (0/2) – 10/161 +18

3—Warren Greatrex (0/6) – 14/97 – loss of 9

3—Kerry Lee (0/1) – 2/10 +3

3—David Pipe (2/6 +9) – 39/281 +19

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/3) – 10/91 – loss of 17

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 0/32

2—Emma Lavelle (0/6) – 13/198 – loss of 88

2—Charlie Mann (0/1) – 15/220 – loss of 92

2—Gary Moore (0/7) – 22/365 – loss of 65

2—Ben Pauling (2/13 – loss of 6) – 9/38 – loss of 3

2—Fiona Shaw (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2

2—Robert Walford (0/2) – 2/14 –loss of 9

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Market Rasen: £11.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £39.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £47.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 14th January

KELSO – JANUARY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

£24.70 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Kelso: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Coole Hall) & 5 (Knockrobin)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Clondaw Castle) & 5 (Booyakasha)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Chti Balko), 9 (Dexcite) & 6 (Charmant)

Leg 4 (2.15): 3 (Romanex ), 7 (Caraline) & 2 (Takingrisks)

Leg 5 (2.45): 2 (Minella Suite), 9 (Massini’s Lady) & 3 (Ange Des Malberaux)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Lough Derg Jewel), 3 (Chidswell) & 5 (Bernadelli)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  Course winner COOLE HALL is difficult to oppose from a win perspective let alone when contemplating the Placepot puzzle on Sunday.  Rose Dobbin’s raider is asked to carry a double penalty but unless the ground becomes really testing, Craig Nichol’s mount should be up to the task.  Similarly, KNOCKROBIN stands out as the main danger.

Favourite factor: The only two (9/4 & 11/8) favourites to date duly obliged in 2015 & 2017.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Coole Hall (good)

 

1.10: Tom George raids this venue to good effect every now and then whereby it’s worth noting the first of his three intended runners on the card, namely CLONDAW CASTLE who looks a little more straightforward than the other ‘recent’ winner in the field Some Reign who refused to race at odds of 4/11 when attempting to follow up a course and distance victory here in October.  BOOYAKASHA could represent some Placepot value by comparison.

Favourite factor: Both even money and 13/8 favourites have secured Placepot positions by securing silver medals in their relevant contests behind winners which were returned at 66/1 and 4/1.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/3—Some Reign (good)

 

1.40: Donald McCain boasts a 24% strike rate since the end of November via 23 winners which is something to behold during these dark winter nights and there is every chance that CHTI BALKO will add to the tally in a race which should not take a great of winning.  James Ewart is a trainer whose runners invariably warrant inspection at Kelso and with two options on the table on this occasion, I’m siding with CHARMANT over Jassas. Tom George’s representative DEXCITE receives the thick end of two stones from CHTI BALKO which suggests that there might not be a great deal of daylight between the pair at the jamstick.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite duly prevailed.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Mirsaal (good)

 

2.15: As younger horses than their (supposedly) main rivals, RAMONEX and CARALINE could represent some value for money against the top pair in the handicap which are listed in order of marginal preference, namely TAKINGRISKS and KATACHENNKO.  I certainly think that the risk is worth taking (excuse the play on words) from a Placepot perspective at least.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 14/5 market leader found one too good when claiming a Placepot position twelve months ago in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field refers to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Katachenko (soft)

2/2—Takingrisks (2 x heavy)

2/12—Jet Master (good & good to soft)

1/2—Caraline (heavy)

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2.45: This event will probably be taxing the brains of layers and players alike as the runners leave the paddock, let alone trying to make sense of the contest 30 hours in advance of the tape being released.  I’m opting for MINELLA SUITE, MASSINI’S LADY and ANGE DES MALBERAUX to take us into the last leg between them.

Favourite factor: Both of the 4/1 and 5/2 favourites to date have missed out on Placepot positions.  That said, all six available Placepot pitches have been claimed by horses which were returned at 9/1 or less (winners at 9/1 & 7/2).

 

3.15: BERNADELLI won a race on this corresponding card last year and the Nicky Richards raider can rarely be entirely eliminated from enquires in this grade/company, especially when a 10/1 trade press quote is in place.  LOUGH DERG JEWEL is in the form of his (seven-year-old) life and has to enter the mix accordingly, whilst CHIDSWELL should also be on the premises when the jockeys raise their whips.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Kelso card.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Lough Derg Jewel (good to soft)

1/6—Bernardelli (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kelso card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nick Alexander (2/10 +29) – 33/308 – slight loss re level stakes

6—Nicky Richards (0/10) – 99/466 – loss of 46 points

5—James Ewart (2/11 +22) – 33/228 +18

5—Donald McCain (4/18 – loss of 2) – 59/287 +3)

4—Rose Dobbin (2/20 – loss of 15) – 22/206 – loss of 36

4—Lucinda Russell (1/21 – loss of 17) – 6/167 – loss of 208

3—Tom George (1/1 – slight profit) – 4/13 – loss of 2

3—Chris Grant (0/6) – 23/246 +60

3—Micky Hammond (1/13 – loss of 7) – 59/391 – loss of 108

3—Katie Scott (1/1- - loss of 4) – 5/53 – loss of 9

2—Stuart Coltherd (0/6) – 18/237 – loss of 40

2—Malcolm Jefferson (2/11 +3) – 37/219 – loss of 37

2—Lucy Normile (0/6) – 6/167 – loss of 15

2—Jackie Stephen (0/7) – 3/27 – loss of 3

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell: £119.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 13th January

KEMPTON – JANUARY 13

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

 

2017: £135.30 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Vaziani) & 1 (Redicean)

Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Chef Des Obeaux) & 4 (Secret Investor)

Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Rothman), 1 (Bishop) & 3 (Exitas)

Leg 4 (2.05): 4 (Waiting Patiently) & 1 (Josses Hill)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Top Ville Ben), 9 (Spiritofthegames), 10 (Red Indian) & 2 (River Frost)

Leg 6 (3.15): 1 (Fountains Windfall), 5 (Ballykan) & 3 (The Young Master)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: It’s worth noting that Alan King (REDICEAN) is the only trainer to have saddled two recent winners of this ‘juvenile’ event.  That said, Robert Walford only held one option for the rest of the week after scoring with Kohuma at Taunton on Tuesday, that inmate being VAZIANI in this event.  5/1 looks a decent price (almost right across the board at the time of writing) about Robert’s debut Taunton winner who hails from a stable boasting recent stats of 8/29 (28% strike rate). Course form is always worth a length or three however whereby the chance of REDICEAN is highly respected especially here at Kempton, one of the fastest tracks in the country whatever relevant conditions are in situ.
Favourite factor: Favourites came to the gig on a four timer three years ago before the run was ended, though it’s worth noting that all 12 winners during the last 13 years have won at odds of 11/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Redicean (soft)

 

12.55: Nicky Henderson held a couple of options for this event at the penultimate entry stage, with the trainer showing the green light to both horses, namely CHEF DES OBEAUX and DUKE DEBARRY who are listed in order of preference.  Neither Nicky or Paul Nicholls (SECRET INVESTOR) have won this event thus far, though that stat looks about to change in this sixth renewal.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites filled the forecast positions four years ago before the next two (even money & 10/11) successful market leaders completed a clean sweep for jollies.  That was followed by two favourites which claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

 

1.30: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals with two decent types to represent the vintage this time around.  BISHOPS COURT looks solid Placepot material, though I latched onto the 14/1 Skybet odds about ROTHMAN this morning which looked well over the top.  12/1 is still available with four firms at the time of writing.  There was also money around for EXITAS (James Bowen takes off a useful five pounds) overnight and this trio will carry my Placepot cash.
Favourite factor: Just one (9/4) favourite has won via the five renewals thus far, though the bad news does not end there.  The other four market leaders all finished out of the frame resulting in tens of thousands of Placepot units going up in smoke in this race alone.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/3—Exitas (good)

1/5—Breath Of Blighty (good)

 

2.05: Three of the four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 which brings in this year’s lone qualifier JOSSES HILL into the mix, even though Nicky Henderson’s raider has not scaled the heights that looked imminent a few years back.  That said, JOSSES HILL seems to reserve some of his best work for this venue and he has taken on Top Notch in his last two races!. That all said, WAITING PATIENTLY only sits 16 ounces the wrong side of the ‘superior’ weight barrier, whereby Malcolm Jefferson’s highly impressive northern challenger deserves top billing, coming to the gig on a five timer.  Although Smad Place and Gods Own have both won at Kempton, their best efforts are reserved for more testing courses from my viewpoint, talented horses though they are.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged by 23 lengths before the following ten length gold medallist justified favouritism at even money.  We returned to ‘real life’ two years ago when the (Paul Nicholls trained) 2/5 favourite was the only horse (of the three contenders) to fail to complete the course, though the 5/4 market leader twelve months ago floored the majority of the bookmakers, on track at least.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/5—Josses Hill (good & soft)

1/3—Smad Place (good)

2/2—Art Masquerade (2 x good)

1/5—God’s Own (good to soft)

 

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2.40:  This looks to be the potential ‘Placepot destroyer’ on the card and if one or two of the shorter priced horses in other races also finish out of the frame, we could yet witness a good dividend despite what the first impression of the programme offers.  Six-year-olds have won six of the ten renewals of the 'Lanzarote' at odds of 20/1--9/1--8/1--9/2*--9/2**--11/4*, whilst eight of the ten winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less.  TOP VILLE BEN, SPIRITOFTHEGMAES and RED INDIAN are more speculative types to add to RIVER FOST as six-year-olds dominate my permutation.
Favourite factor: Five of the 11 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four (7/4—11/4--9/2--9/2**) winners.

Record of the course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/1—William Henry (good)

2/2—River Frist (good & good to soft)

1/1—Bags Groove (good)

1/1—Man From Mars (good)

 

3.15: The last four winners (of five in total) carried a minimum burden of eleven stones as have twelve of the fourteen horses which have secured Placepot positions thus far.  Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of FOUNTAINS WINDFALL, BALLYKAN and THE YOUNG MASTER.  I felt that I had to include two options alongside the favourite given that Fountains Windfall has fallen on his last two outings, albeit his chance is undeniable here if putting in a safe round of fencing.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had finished out with the washing via two renewals of the toteplacepot finale before the10/3 market leader scraped into a Placepot position by finishing third in a nine runner contest two years ago.  Life improved for favourite punters twelve months on when the 9/4 market leader duly obliged before last year’s jolly secured a Placepot position at odds of 3/1 when claiming the silver medal.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (8/25 – loss of 4 points) – 229/895 +72

5—Alan King (2/17 – loss of 11) – 76/482 – loss of 87

3—Gary Moore (0/19) – 28/412 – loss of 186

3—Paul Nicholls (9/19 +1) – 119/522 – loss of 53

3—Dan Skelton (0/17) – 8/101 – loss of 74

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/6 +2) – 47/330 – loss of 51

2—Chris Gordon (0/9) – 9/76 +22

2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 3/562 – loss of 10

2—Charlie Mann (1/1 – slight profit) – 19/202 – loss of 50

2—Neil Mulholland (0/3) – 4/57 +8

2—Nick Williams (0/2) – 7/45 – loss of 4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £292.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £149.20 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W): £57.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £51.10 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 12th January

LINGFIELD – JANUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £126.80 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 2 (Star Story) & 1 (Swiss Vinnare)

Leg 2 (12.50): 1 (Father Alibe), 3 (Imperial Red) & 2 (Ocean Side)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Dark Alliance) & 7 (Ubla)

Leg 4 (1.50): 7 (No Approval), 6 (Black Dave) & 1 (Kingsley Klarion)

Leg 5 (2.20): 4 (Mystique Moon) & 3 (Suzi’s Connoisseur)

Leg 6 (2.50): 1 (Juan Horsepower). 2 (Menelik) & 6 (Monumental Man)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20:  Seven pound claimer Nicola Currie is the latest lady rider to come off the production line to very good effect, especially given her 41/1 treble yesterday which will give added confidence to the jockey aboard SWISS VINNARE.  Trainer Phil McEntee has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect too, though the same horse (Spare Parts) won three of those races which dilutes the impressive ratio to a fashion.  STAR STORY is the horse to beat if the headlines are potentially heading in the direction of Nicola and Phil again early doors.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card at Lingfield with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/2—Swiss Vinnare

1/3—Retrieve

3/16—Turnberry

 

12.50:  Just two weeks ago, this would have been a Nursery event which accounts for the tight looking handicap which needs to be solved.  FATHER ALIBE (the first of no less than six runners on the card for trainer John Butler) gets the marginal nod over IMPERIAL RED and OCEAN SIDE.  There has been money for the first named Excelebration gelding, whilst the reserve nomination is awarded to Global Angel though in truth, I rarely call the Ed Dunlop trained horses the right way.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via just two renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one (9/4) winner.

 

1.20: Two of the last three horses saddled by Daniel Mark Loughnane have won, the first of them being DARK ALLIANCE just four days ago at Wolverhampton. The seven-year-old escapes a penalty for that victory and the trainer seems to have found an ideal opportunity for his Dark Angel gelding to win in this grade/company.  MADRINHO (another of the John Butler raiders on the card) is attracting each way support as I write, though that small gamble is not being replicated on the exchanges in the dead of night.  11/1 is available with a few firms about UBLA and given the positive course stats, win and place investors might be rewarded to minimum stakes if nothing else appeals.

Favourite factor: All three favourites had secured Placepot positions (including two 6/4 & even money winners), before last year’s 6/4 market leader finished tenth of the eleven runners.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/8—Passing Star

2/4—Ubla

3/25--Bookmaker

 

1.50: The 25/1 trade press quote about KINGSLEY KLARION is looking a tad big this morning as more money for a John Butler representative has been recorded whilst other were working on their ‘beauty sleep’.  More logical winners in the field include BLACK DAVE (impressive stats to offer at Lingfield) and NO APPROVAL who has plenty of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges to report. As for beauty sleep, some of us don’t need it because in certain aspects of life, we were declared as also rans many seasons ago!

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the third race on the card whereby the same stats apply.  All three favourites had secured Placepot positions (including two 6/4 & even money winners), before last year’s 6/4 market leader finished tenth of the eleven runners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Kingsley Klarion

1/4—Bridge Of Sighs

2/9—Complicit

1/9—Bobbie Benton

1/1—Luna Magic

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5/12—Black Dave

9/46—Seek The Fair Land

 

2.20:  Charlie Appleby has his team in fine form (recent ratio of 7/16) as is seemingly always the case and it is worth noting that Charlie’s only runner until Monday (at the earliest) is MYSTIQUE MOON.  Stuart Williams is the brave trainer who offers a double attack on the favourite, with SUZI’S CONNOISSEUR marginally preferred to Swift Approval, though the ‘jury was out’ for a long time before the far from unanimous decision was declared.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card at Lingfield.

Record of the course winners in the field:

2/2—Early Morning

1/4—Mr Scaramanga

1/5—Unforgiving Minute

4/17--Shyron

 

2.50: Considering the number of horses that Richard Hannon has saddled here at Lingfield, it’s worth noting that the trainer has recorded a level stake profit at the track whereby with little else to work with, I’m offering JUAN HORSEPOWER up as the first name on the team sheet.  The 7/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor might not last until the offices open later this morning though either way, I’m taking the course winner to get the better of MENELIK and MONUMENTAL MAN at the business end of proceedings.  This trio offer better value for money from a Placepot perspective than other contenders from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Both (4/5 & 7/4) market leaders had prevailed before last year’s 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Juan Horsepower

4/17—Menelik

2/8—Pour La Victoire

2/10—Dutiful Son

5/10—Monumental Man

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Friday – followed by this career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—John Butler (15/104 – loss of 11 points)

3—Simon Dow (151/1666 – loss of 524)

3—David Evans (166/1611 – loss of 634)

3—Richard Hannon (60/336 +22)

2—Michael Attwater (58/720 – loss of 116)

2—John Bridger (82/1644 – loss of 650)

2—Phil McEntee (43/576 – loss of 253)

2—Stuart Williams (93/668 – loss of 134)

+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £69.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new meeting

The meeting at Sedgefield was abandoned

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 11th January

CHELMSFORD – JANUARY 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 1 (Titan Goddess), 4 (Nature Boy) & 7 (Ted’s Brother)

Leg 2 (6.30): 4 (Arnarson) & 7 (Murdanova)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Tangramm) & 4 (Wimpole Hall)

Leg 4 (7.30): 1 (Western Way), 5 (Caracas) & 3 (Spiritoftomintoul)

Leg 5 (8.00): 3 (Arcadian Sea) & 1 (With Hindsight)

Leg 6 (8.30): 4 (Mercury), 1 (Spare Parts) & 3 (Kyllach Me)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.55: NATURE BOY would only have to ‘settle’ a little better than the last day to go very close on this grade/company.  As a six time winner however (notwithstanding five silver medal efforts), triple course winner TITAN GODDESS looks a more obvious call though the 5/4 quote (in a place) looks far too skinny to have a bet from a win perspective.  TED’S BROTHER (12/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing) represents some each way value if you are seeking an alternative option.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

3/11—Titan Goddess

1/8—Spirited Star

1/11—Plucky Dip

1/2—Ted’s Brother

 

6.30: Ed Dunlop has won with the four of his last eight runners, stats which includes yesterday’s 10/1 loser which was beaten by less than lengths at Kempton.  We are clinging on to eight of the original nine runners at the time of writing though either way, Ed’s raider ANARSON should secure a Placepot position at the very least.  MURDANOVA is offered up as the alternative each way option.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/4—Cainhoe Star

1/7—Out Of The Ashes

 

7.00: I’m a little surprised that TANGRAMM was not put up a few ounces by the official assessor when running a good race (despite defeat) the last day.  Boasting 2/2 stats at this venue, Dean Ivory has found another half decent opportunity for his Sakhee’s Secret gelding who has won eight times on all weather surfaces.  From a value for money (Placepot) perspective, WIMPOLE HALL is preferred to Hairdryer as the main threat.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/5—Van Huysen

2/2—Tangramm

1/2—Wimpole Hill

2/5—Graceful James

1/3--Hairdryer

 

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7.30: A dead eight event which is not for the feint hearted I’ll wager, with WESTERN WAY, CARACAS and SPIRITOFTOMINTOUL entrusted with the task of getting us through to the fifth leg of our favourite wager.  The horses are not listed in order of preference as there is no order of preference, with yours truly being quite content with just one of the trio securing a position if that’s the way things pan out.

 

8.00: ARCADIAN SEA looks the safest Placepot option in the penultimate leg but for those of you looking to back the William Jarvis representative to actually win the race, you should look away now. William has saddled ten horses during the month of January in the last two years without saddling a winner whilst according to my records, all 20 of William’s runners since September have failed to score!  Given the stats/circumstances, the aptly named WITH HINDSIGHT makes a little more appeal, though not enough to reach for my wallet and/or online account.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/5—Arcadian Sea

 

8.30: Much depends on whether SPARE PARTS turns up for the gig having won at Kempton last night.  Either way, the drop back in trio is not sure to suit perfectly given that these last two back-to-back victories were gained over what is often referred to as a ‘specialist seven furlong’ distance.  You are in a far better position than yours truly in terms of whether Phil McEntee’s Choisir gelding is turned out quickly again.  The positive course stats demand respect for MERCURY but not wishing to place all my eggs in the one basket should SPARE PARTS remain back at the ranch, I’m adding KYLLACH ME into the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: This is the only race on the Placepot card which has any (limited) history.  The inaugural 2/1 favourite (two years ago) sneaked into the frame via a bronze medal effort.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Mercury

2/7--Firesnake

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chelmsford card on Thursday – followed by their career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

2—Andrew Balding (19/144 – loss of 53 points)

2—Tony Carroll (14/115 – loss of 25)

2—Keith Dalgleish (4/27 – loss of 12)

2—Mark Gillard (0/5)

2—Richard Guest (10/61 +28)

2—William Jarvis (5/56 – loss of 16)

2—Phil McEntee (18/256 – loss of 67)

2—Bryan Smart (0/15)

2—Henry Spiller (3/36 + 11)

2—M Tompkins (14/132 – loss of 42)

2—Nark Usher (0/15)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £24.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Leicester: 891.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £434.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 10th January

LUDLOW – JANUARY 10

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 11 (Zalvados) & 8 (Shivermetimbers)

Leg 2 (1.20): 6 (Monbeg Oscar), 13 (Comrade Conrad) & 9 (Shall We Go Now)

Leg 3 (1.55): 3 (Wandrin Star), 7 (Dark Mahler) & 8 (Megabucks)

Leg 4 (2.25): 8 (Flashjack) & 10 (Galactic Power)

Leg 5 (3.00): 11 (Tb Broke Her), 3 (Nansaroy) & 5 (Gooher)

Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Ask Catkin), 8 (The Last Bar) & 2 (Fille Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: There is some each way money knocking about for SHIVERMETIMBERS and the soft ground Warwick bumper winner gets the alternative each way shout to the hot favourite in the contest, especially with Charlie Deutsch still remaining decent value for his three pound claim.  ZALVADOS hardly represent value at around the 4/7 mark but his trainer Oliver Greenall has surely found a good opportunity for his Soldier Of Fortune gelding in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: This is a new meeting whereby no previous results apply.

 

1.20: SHALL WE GO NOW would not be one of the leading lights back at the Harry Fry ranch but his Placepot chance is not dismissed in such a poor contest.  Beaten on all five assignments in this country (favourite on three occasions), MONBEG OSCAR has broken a few hearts/investors already but like Zalvados in the opening event on the card, the Evan Williams representative will surely finish in the frame, even if only the layers are applauding him after the race.  COMRADE CONRAD is the other plausible winner in the field.

 

1.55: DARK MAHLER shone through the gloom at the last meeting here at Ludlow and Emma Lavelle’ s raider in expected to go close to following up, even though Kim Bailey’s WANDRIN STAR will be fancied by his in form connections.  Throw the each way alternative option MEGABUCKS into the equation and we have quite a good contest to witness.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

1/1—Secret Door (soft)

1/1—Old Salt (soft)

1/1—Dark Mahler (good)

 

2.25: There is some semi serious money in the realistic positive queue for the only course winner in the field, namely GALACTIC POWER, with Robin Dickin’s Gamut gelding offering some opposition to FLASHJACK at the time of writing.  Henry Daly’s recent winner (escapes a penalty) represents a yard which if flying at present and this pair will do for me against the remaining 15 contenders.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Galactic Power (good to soft)

 

3.00: NANSAROY and GORSKY ISLAND are the alternative each way options to the Hereford winner TB BROKE HER in another race on the card which will not take a great deal of winning.  That said, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the claims of GOOHER, especially representing the (Henry Daly) yard that sponsors the contest.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/4—Gorsky Island (2 x good to soft)

 

3.35: Tom Symonds boasts decent figures at the track (see the stats below) and there is every chance that ASK CATKIN could outrun her odds in the last leg of our favourite wager.  That said, THE LAST BAR and FILLE DES CHAMPS are perfectly plausible Placepot types which should land the dividend between them, albeit I’m adding the first named outsider into the mix.

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All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

7 runners—Evan Williams (1/20 – loss of 14 points) – 107/680 – loss of 177

4—Tom George (0/5) – 9/118 – loss of 44

4—Dan Skelton (3/13 – loss of 3 – 21/91 – loss of 13

3—Kim Bailey (8/21 +15) – 71/419 – loss of 37

3—Neil Mulholland (0/8) – 10/57 +21

3—David Pipe (1/8 – loss of 2) – 22/148 – loss of 26

3—Jeremy Scott (1/5 – loss of 3) – 8/59 – loss of 13

3—Tom Symonds (1/7 +34) – 6/62 +7

3—Paul Webber (1/1 +1) – 7/74 – loss of 37

3—Venetia Williams (0/8) – 63/402 – loss of 61

2—Henry Daly (2/16 – loss of 6) – 65/471 – loss of 137

2—Robin Dickin (1/6 – loss of 1) – 16/122 – loss of 58

2—Harry Fry (1/5 – slight loss) – 8/28 +5

2—Paul Henderson (0/3) – 0/10

2—Sheila Lewis (0/2) – 0/9

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/17 – loss of 7) – 14/216 – loss of 31

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2) – 0/32

2—David Rees (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 3/27 – loss of 9

2—Matt Sheppard (1/13 – loss of 5) 18/242 – loss of 51

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15 – loss of 5) – 83/684 – loss of 184

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kempton: £120.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £23.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 9th January

TAUNTON – JANUARY 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £35.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 3 (Kohuma), 1 (Overawed & 4 (Chilli Romance)

Leg 2 (1.05): 4 (Coup De Pinceau) & 1 (As I See It)

Leg 3 (1.35): 6 (King Of Realms) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)

Leg 4 (2.10): 6 (Orbasa), 1 (Relentless Dreamer) & 5 (Sandy Beach)

Leg 5 (2.45): 7 (Padleyourowncanoe), 2 (Reejah) & 3 (Blairs Cove)

Leg 6 (3.20): 2 (Unioniste) & 3 (Bear’s Affair)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: A couple of in form trainers saddle horses here and with previous little else to work with, OVERAWED (Tom George – recent stats of 5/17) and KOHUMA (Robert Walford – 7/28) are the first names on the team sheet.  Although a maiden after twelve assignments to date, the chance for CHILLI ROMANCE to secure another Placepot position is there for all to see.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Taunton with which to open proceedings.

 

1.05: Pricing up races well before the off is invariably a difficult task, though the lads/lasses in the office of the trade press are (seemingly) well wide of the mark with the 5/4 call about AS I SEE IT.  Harry Fry’s ‘Point’ winner is freely available at 9/4 with four firms at the time of writing and though I cannot eliminate the six-year-old from my Placepot enquiries, the quotes could not prize money out of my possession in the dead of night.  On the flip side of the trade press betting forecast, I doubt there will be much of the projected 4/1 COUP DE PINCEAU available from what I can make of the quiet exchange dealings this morning.

Favourite factor: Although all three favourites have finished of the frame thus far, bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as the top priced winner to date was returned at just 5/1.

 

1.35: Trainer Ian Williams was enjoying a fine last quarter last year before he lost his highly progressive London Prize on an ill-fated day from which the yard has not fully recovered.  Ian will hopefully bounce back here with KING OF REALMS who despite the number of horses involved, seemingly only has one or two to beat.  DEMON D’AUNOU appears to be the pick of the opposition.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, albeit we had to wait until last year for the first (1/3) jolly to prevail from a win perspective.  The previous three favourites were beaten at odds of 4/6, 8/11 and 1/2!

 

2.10: The Sandown effort of ORBASA the last day suggests that 10/1 might be a big enough price about the Paul Nicholls representative, albeit consistency would not feature on his curriculum vitae.  Connections will be eyeing RELENTLESS DREAMER and SANDY BEACH as possible dangers, whilst EARTHMOVES is another potential each way play in the contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 6/4 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 market leader the previous season.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Relentless Dreamer (good)

1/5—Earthmoves (soft)

1/5—Sandy Beach (good to soft)

1/1—Timeforwest (good)

 

2.45: Thankfully we look set for a dry (if cloudy) day at Taunton, though it’s a shame that the overnight ground was not in better shape as REEJAH would have been really interesting given his 14/1 odds of offer at the time of writing.  A winner of 6/12 races to date with Nigel Hawke’s yard in blistering form, I’m still going to add the outsider into the Placepot mix and hope for the best.  More logical winners given the projected (soft) conditions include PADLEYOUROWNCANOE and FIDUX.  There has been support for BLAIRS COVE overnight though like REEJAH, better ground would have made the money more interesting.  All in all, this is a really interesting race to watch.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, stats which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Rejaah (good)

2/7—Here’s Herbie (good & good to soft)

1/1—Padleyourowncanoe (soft)

 

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3.20: This looks the right sort of (Hunter Chase) discipline for UNIONISTE given his advancing years.  A really decent type when at the top of his game a few years back, David Maxwell should get a good tune out of the ten-year-old for the ‘local’ Paul Nicholls team.  There are a few alternative options to consider though from a Placepot perspective, BEAR’S AFFAIR looks to be the value for money call.  As a winner of 4/8 assignments at the venue, there will be worse 100/1 chances on the card than Milosam, though connections will probably just be happy to see him complete the course this time around, something that Milosam has only managed to do once via his last seven outings.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, whilst just one of three market leaders has secured a Placepot position to date.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Imperial Circus (good)

4/8—Milosam (3 x good + heavy)

1/3—Princely Player (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) & careers ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Colin Tizzard (3/14 +4) – 34/342 - loss of 131

5—Paul Nicholls (5/22 – loss of 12 points) – 213/818 – loss of 119

4—Harry Fry (0/3) – 23/83 – loss of 12

4—Nigel Hawke (1/4 – level on the season) – 11/237 – loss of 113

4—Nicky Martin (First runners this season) – 0/1

3—Sue Gardner (0/1) – 7/94 – loss of 45

3—Tom George (0/2) – 9/115 – loss of 41

3—Philip Hobbs (0/12) – 148/818 – loss of 80

2—Jack R Barber (0/2) -1/3 – loss of 1

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/5) – 5/35 – loss of 7

2—Mark Gillard (0/1) – 3/104 – loss of 83

2—Ron Hodges (0/1) – 63/738 – loss of 281

2—Martin Keighley (0/2) – 3/45 – loss of 23

2—Alan King (0/6) – 42/250 – loss of 54

2—Richard Mitford-Slade (1/1 +100) – 1/1 +100

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 +10) – 5/110 – loss of 69

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 4/70 – loss of 20

2—Jeremy Scott (1/3 +4) – 12/92 – loss of 20

2—Dan Skelton (0/8) – 10/51 – loss of 13

2—Sam Thomas (First runners this season) – 1/8 +59

2—Evan Williams (0/7) – 36/279 – loss of 40

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 8th January

FONTWELL – JANUARY 8

 

Last year’s corresponding Placepot details:

£26.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 5 (My Dance), 8 (Tierra Verde) & 1 (Bee Crossing)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Hands Of Stone), 7 (Blue April) & 3 (Flanagans Field)

Leg 3 (2.15): 1 (Greyed A) & 4 (Itoldyou)

Leg 4 (2.45): 6 (Tikken Away), 1 (Minella On Line) & 4 (Chris Pea Green)

Leg 5 (3.15): 2 (Cloudy Beach), 6 (Native Robin) & 4 (Jarlath)

Leg 6 (3.45): 6 (Puppet Warrior) & 7 (Seaston Spirit)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Anthony Honeyball has saddled five winners at Fontwell via their last six meetings, with MY DANCE being the trainer’s only runner on the card.  I would have been happier had the ground been in better condition for the Kayf Tara mare, though the relevant stock tend to get through the ground well enough as a general rule.  Harry Whittington is on a crest of a wave right now and with four of his last five runners having won, Harry’s TIERRA VERDE demands great respect, especially in this grade/company.  BEE CROSSING is the other short listed runner in the opening contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Bold Image (good to soft)

 

1.45: Evan Williams will have gained a great deal of pleasure with the victory of his veteran Buywise at Sandown on Saturday, with the trainer holding a half decent chance of saddling another gold medallist at a double figure price in HANDS OF STONE.  Relatively unexposed for a six-year-old, Evan’s Shantou gelding has attracted some interest at around the 14/1 mark overnight and with Conor Ring claiming a useful three pounds in the plate, HANDS OF STONE is the each way call in the contest.  More logical winners include FLANAGANS FIELD and BLUE APRIL I guess, the latter named raider hailing from Jeremy Scott’s in form yard which has snared four gold medals via their last eleven runners.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 market leader sneaked into the frame via a bronze medal effort.

 

2.15: Boasting a 22% strike rate during the month of January in recent years, Dr Richard Newland should be rewarded here for finding a realistic target for his recent heavy ground course and distance winner GREYED A who seemingly has precious little more to do having gone up just three pounds for a facile victory.  ITOLDYOU might plod around in a slightly quicker time than ALLCHILLEDOUT, though the emphasis very much on plod rather than quick!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Colin Tizzard trained) 5/2 favourite duly prevailed.  Out of interest, Colin saddles Allchilledout this time around.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/3—Greyed A (heavy)

3/7—Itoldyou (good – good to soft – heavy)

 

2.45: CHRIS PEA GREEN is a talented individual and no mistake, though Gary Moore’s local raider is back hurdling having seemingly lost form and enthusiasm for the job in hand in recent seasons.  A winner of three of his first four races in 2012/13, CHRIS PEA GREEN has scored on just two of his subsequent 20 assignments, with eight races having been contested since last winning over three years ago.  Unfortunately, Joshua’s mount has followed in the footsteps of his highly talented sire Proclamation who won four of his first five races under the other code before being retired early in his career.  Robert Walford can do little wrong at present whereby the chance of TIKKEN AWAY is there for all to see, whilst MINELLA ON LINE offers some value for money, albeit on ground that will be slower than the top weight would like.

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Favourite factor: This was the only race on last year’s Placepot card in which the favourite failed to finish in the money.

 

3.15: JARLATH has yet to race on this type of ground for all that connections would have liked some of the recent wet stuff to have been blown elsewhere.  Conversely, Venetia Williams has really appreciated the recent wet spell with her stock generally revelling in slower conditions.  CLOUDY BEACH is one such individual (2/4 on heavy going), whilst NATIVE ROBIN scored under similar conditions the last day at Warwick.

Favourite factor: The front two horses in the market filled the ‘short field’ frame last year, albeit they finished the wrong way around for the majority of investors.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/2—Cloudy Beach (good & heavy)

2/5—Fergal Muel Duin (good to soft & soft)

 

3.45: For all that Mellow Ben could also finish in the frame, the pair to concentrate on here is PUPPET WARRIOR and SEASTON SPIRIT.  The two horses are around the 2/9 (coupled) mark to win the race between them at the time of writing, notwithstanding obvious Placepot claims in a weak finale.

Favourite factor: The front pair in the market dominated last year’s first running with the 4/6 market leader landing the prize.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fontwell card on Monday – followed by seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

4 runners—Gary Moore (6/51 – loss of 19 points) – 197/06 – loss of 101

4—Seamus Mullins (4/29 +15) – 51/554 – loss of 111

3—Chris Gordon (4/39 – loss of 24) – 66/540 – loss of 3

3—Evan Williams (0/5) – 33/220 – loss of 87

2—Johnny Farrelly (1/7 – loss of 3) – 1/25 – loss of 21

2—Jeremy Scott (3/13 – slight loss) – 12/81 +5

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/11) – 44/286 – loss of 20 points

2—Colin Tizzard (3/13 – slight loss) – 45/287 – loss of 56

2—Robert Walford (1/2 – loss of 2) – 4/31 – loss of 14

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hereford: £313.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £30.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 7th January

PLUMPTON – JANUARY 7

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £43.30 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Marley Firth) & 14 (Miss Tynte)

Leg 2 (1.05): 1 (Rather Be) & 3 (Gregarious)

Leg 3 (1.35): 1 (Harefield) & 5 (Flemenskill)

Leg 4 (2.05): 6 (Snippetydoodah), 8 (Bact To Black) & 9 (Heluvagood)

Leg 5 (2.35): 12 (Bindon Mill), 8 (Leo Luna) & 6 (Shanroe Santos)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (Finnegan’s Garden), 1 (Bramble Brook) & 2 (Ramore Will)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.30: This is simply a case of whether Dan Skelton’s MARLEY FIRTH is good enough to give so much weight to his rivals under poor conditions.  A facile winner on heavy ground at Chepstow, Dan’s Flemensfirth gelding looks a ready made winner despite the concession given his fair effort in a Grade 2 Sandown event the last day.  The current 4/5 call from Skybet looks sure to set the phones ringing in the relevant office anytime now.  MISS TYNTE will represent better value than Jaisalmer in terms of an alternative each way call of you want to take on the market leader.
Favourite factor: 18 of the last 20 winners have scored at 13/2 or less during which time, ten clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won.  14 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

1.05: Market leaders have a fine record in this event (see stats below) and with Nicky Henderson’s team in fine form, this looks to be something of a penalty kick for RATHER BE facing just three (ordinary) rivals. Nick’s seven-year-old Oscar gelding has threatened to be a decent type for some time now and this discipline could make a man of him.  The going is the only concern in all honesty though as a soft ground winner in the past, connections would not be happy to name conditions as a reason for being beaten in such a low grade event.  GREGARIOUS is 2/2 on soft ground whereby if the conditions are not reported to be too bad prior to flag fall, Lucy Wadham’s raider would be the forecast call.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have won to date, with ten market leaders finishing in the frame.

1.35: Five year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and if the first two favourites have obliged, there could be a ton of money running up on Alan King’s vintage representative HAREFIELD.  The treble on the first three favourites on the card equates to around the 5/2 mark at the time of writing, whilst sports mad enthusiasts will (likely as not) get greedy by including West Ham and Arsenal (televised games) in an accumulator which works out to around 10/1. Although Alan saddled 13 winners during the collective months of November/December, the relevant gold medallists scored at a disappointing 10% strike rate on behalf of the yard, whereby Alan will be hoping to pick up the thread now in the new year.  The trainer certainly seems to have found a golden opportunity for his recent Warwick winner, whilst Wayne Hutchinson’s mount will be less troubled by conditions that most I’ll wager.  FLEMENSKILL can put his Aintree debut effort to good use by following the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance in all probability.
Favourite factor: 12 of the 13 winners have scored at 9/2 or less, stats which include four winning favourites.  Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

 

2.05: Bookmakers will welcome this event to get some more horses into their ledgers (I’m showing my age again) compared to the opening three events on the card.  I’m offering each way/Placepot opportunities for two outsiders here, namely SNIPPETYDOODAH and HELUVAGOOD.  The first named course and distance winner was the subject of some overnight support, whilst Vic Darnall (fine record at this venue down the years) saddles Heluvagood whose 20/1 quote catches the eye in this grade/company.  More logical winners include CAFÉ AU LAIT and BACT TO BLACK I guess but something has to give on the Placepot card in order for a decent dividend to be declared and this race looks set up to give the majority of the layers a break.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite found one to good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—Snippetydoodah (heavy)

1/4—Yukon Deelta (good)

 

2.35: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, as have 22 of the 33 horses which have secured toteplacepot/each way positions in the ‘Sussex National’ to date.  Nine-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of BINDON MILL, LEO LUNA and SHANROE SANTOS. The reserve nomination is awarded to SHOTGUN PADDY.
Favourite factor: Six of the 12 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date though we still await our first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Sussex National’:

1/4—Coolking (heavy)

3/12—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – soft)

3.10:  As a maiden following 15 assignments to date, bookmakers will happily accommodate BRAMBLE BROOK though from a Placepot perspective, the chance for Colin Tizzard’s raider to reach the frame is there for all to see.  FINNEGAN’S GARDEN has a soft ground course victory to his name and with Zoe Davidson boasting the best seasonal (strike rate) stats on offer at Plumpton this term, Zoe’s nine-year-old has to be included in the mix.  RAMORE WILL completes my trio against the field.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished last of the six finishers in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualiry for each way/Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/1—Ramore Will (good)

1/1—Spock (good)

1/2—Finnegan’s Garden (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Gary Moore (6/36 – loss of 6 points) – 162/891 – loss of 11

5—Daniel Steele (0/2) – 6/48 +1

3—Nick Gifford (0/9) – 28/196 loss of 24

3—Chris Gordon (3/17 – slight loss) – 35/258 +20

3—Dan Skelton (5/14 – loss of 2) – 7/32 – loss of 14

3—Lucy Wadham (0/1) – 9/63 – loss of 15

2—Vic Dartnall ((First runners here this season) – 6/19 +9

2—Zoe Davison (4/7 +39) – 17/213 – loss of 33

2—Warren Greatrex (1/4 +9) – 15/67 +5

2—Linda Jewell (1/10 –loss of 1) – 23/364 – loss of 128

2—Neil King (1/10 – loss of 3) – 23/154 +6

2—Emma Lavelle (First runners here this season) – 25/121 +18

2—Nick Mitchell (0/1) – 2/29 – loss of 15

2—Neil Mulholland (4/16 – loss of 5) – 17/114 – loss of 23

2—Richard Rowe (0/5) – 43/444 – loss of 201

2—Colin Tizzard (2/11 – loss of 2) – 34/216 – loss of 2

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 6th January

SANDOWN - JANUARY 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £47.20 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Echo Watt) & 5 (Mister Chow)

Leg 2 (12.45): 1 (Angels Antics), 3 (Hitherjaques Lady) & 4 (Midnight Jazz)

Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Theo’s Charm), 6 (Bekkensfirth) & 11 (Amber Gambler)

Leg 4 (1.50): 2 (Gino Trail), 1 (Overturn Express) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (2.25): 5 (Western Ryder) & 2 (Mont Des Avaloirs)

Leg 6 (3.00): 13 (Cloudy Too), 1 (Perfect Candidate), 4 (Double Ross) & 9 (Benbens)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: Six of the last eight winners have scored at 8/1 or less, the previous gold medallist having scored on the behalf of the majority of bookmakers at 50/1.  The race is ‘marred’ by the inclusion of WE HAVE A DREAM who is seemingly bound elsewhere (Chepstow).  This causes chaos in attempting to get the Placepot scenario right in the first leg, especially writing this column in the dead of night when nothing is 100% certain.  If I leave Nicky’s horse out and he runs and wins as it should do, I’m in deep trouble.  If I opt for the likely second favourite ECHO WATT and Richard Hobson’s raider misses out having has thousands of units transferred onto him via Nicky’s potential ‘defector’, things will be just as bleak.  I have therefore added MISTER CHOW into the mix, leaving We Have A Dream out of the equation.  Here’s hoping…
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two winners.  That said, odds on chances were turned over from a win perspective at 1/3 (twice) and 10/11 during the period.

 

12.45: A desperately difficult event to assess, given that the eventual decision will be made via a process of elimination, rather than horses standing out from the crowd.  Philip Hobbs (Poppy Kay) has only saddled two winners via 48 runners since the end of November, whilst Dusky Legend reverts back to timber after a nasty fall the last day.  I’m opting for the other three entries from a value for money perspective, listing ANGELS ANTICS, HITHERJACQUES LADY and MIDNIGHT JAZZ in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.  Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, the other gold medallist having been returned at 9/2.

 

1.20: THEOS CHARM was ‘knocked over’ rather than having fallen the last day and Nick Gifford has found a half decent race to find compensation, should Leighton Aspell’s mount enjoy better luck in running on ground that will not cause connections too much distress.  BEKKENSFIRTH looks a typically well placed Skelton representative, whilst my alternative each way call AMBLER GAMBLER completes my trio against the remaining eight declarations.
Favourite factor: The inaugural (David Pipe trained) 10/3 favourite finished last of the six finishers three years ago, whilst the 11/4 market leader occupied the same position via nine runners twelve months later. Last year’s 7/2 market leader thankfully prevailed for the majority of punters.

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have secured three of the last five renewals yet trainers have ignored the ‘edge’ on this occasion.  Another corker of a Sandown event which leads to so many fine Placepot dividends, purely because of the ‘make up’ of races at this venue.  That said, the wheels would come of if a non runner was to rear its ugly head prior to flag fall but remaining positive, I’m expecting GINO TRAIL, OVERTOWN EXPRESS and ROCK ON ROCKY to get us through towards the promised land of another good dividend.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/2—Speredek (soft)

1/2—Rock On Rocky (good to soft)

2/4—Pearls Legend (good to soft & soft)

 

2.25: Paul Nicholls runs just the one horse on the card whereby the chance of MONT DES AVALOIS demands respect, especially as the second of his two victories to date was gained on this type of ground at Aintree the last day.  That said, WESTERN RYDER looks the type that needs to be followed until beaten again, with Richard Johnson thirsting for winners given the Philip Hobbs stat offered earlier on the card.  By comparison, Warren Greatrex saddled nine winners during the course of December and WESTERN RYDER can continue the good run on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners via ten renewals during the last eleven years.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Sussex Ranger (good to soft)

 

3.00: These events for veterans remain as popular as ever and at least three selections are required to ensure we secure the Placepot dividend if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  My ‘short list’ consists of CLOUDY TOO, PERFECT CANDIDATE and DOUBLE ROSS.  Sue (and Harvey) Smith are not in the habit of wasting expenses whereby the soft/heavy ground was vital for CLOUDY TOO to take his chance and his 4/7 record on heavy going ensures that the twelve-year-old was the first name on the team sheet.  The reserve nomination is awarded to BENBENS.
Favourite factor: One of the two 7/1 joint favourites won the inaugural contest, though search parties were still out looking for the other beaten market leader several weeks later.  Last year’s 5/1 market leader was similarly lost without trace.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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1/4—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/2—No Duffer (good to soft)

2/9—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

1/3—Benbens (good to soft)

2/6—Pete The Feat (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Vino Grigio (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Charlie Longsdon (1/5 +21)

4—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/4 +14)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

3—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom George (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – loss of 5 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/5)

2—Kerry Lee (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ben Pauling (1/4 +5)

2—Dan Skelton (1/10 – loss of 5 points)

2—Sue Smith (First runners at Sandown this season)

2—Ian Williams (0/2)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £11.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wincanton: £393.80 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Lingfield: £43.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £57.10 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 5th January

KEMPTON – JANUARY 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £152.80 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Jans Joy), 3 (Inuk) & 2 (Be Mindful)

Leg 2 (6.15): 4 (Broughtons Fancy), 5 (New Rich) & 2 (Chip Or Pellet)

Leg 3 (6.45): 4 (Burauq), 5 (Olaudah) & 2 (Mossy’s Lodge)

Leg 4 (7.15): 1 (Bardd) & 2 (Night Of Glory)

Leg 5 (7.45): 7 (Erinyes) & 8 (Boychick)

Leg 6 (8.15): 2 (Kadrizzi), 1 (Eljaddaaf) & 3 (Kodaline)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.45: Bookmakers are leaning on the right side of an each way quote about JANS JOY from their perspective and although the money in the positive queue on the exchanges is fanciful in terms of what might be offered later this morning, the Stuart Williams raider in the first name on my team sheet, especially as the trainer leads the way at this corresponding meeting during its brief history. INUK might be offered at an inflated price because of his outside draw but with only nine declared contenders, 3/1 could represent a half decent price should such odds be chalked up at some stage prior to flag fall.  Charlie Hills saddles his first runner of the year and BE MINDFUL could prove to be a serious threat to the first named pair on her handicap bow.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card with which to open proceedings.

Course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Inuk

 

6.15: Five-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals whilst claiming four of the nine available Placepot positions. CHIP OR PELLET and BROUGHTONS FANCY should lead the relevant contenders home on this occasion, with the latter named raider representing Karen Tutty who has saddled three of her last five runners to winning effect.  Eve Johnson Houghton did us a nice favour on New Year’s Eve and her first subsequent runner NEW RICH cannot be left out of the equation, particularly from a Placepot perspective.

Favourite factor: The only favourite of four to date to claim a Placepot position did so by winning the relevant contest at 10/3.

Course winner in the second race:

4/24—New Rich

 

6.45: The pick of the five-year-olds in this second heat of the previous event on the card should prove to be MOSSY’S LODGE, though an 18/1 chance raises the eyebrows given the Bet365 quote about last year’s beaten (5/4) favourite BURAUQ who is an short as 11/1 with some firms. The lack of interest on the exchanges about Pulsating is surely accounted for via yesterday’s victory, whereby OLAUDAH is the obvious option of the two projected ‘shorties’ in the betting.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the cards whereby the same stats apply.

Course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/7—Burauq

1/14—Deer Song

 

7.15: At the respective prices of 4/7 and 11/4 offered at the time of writing, BARDD would have to be the value for money call over NIGHT OF GLORY here, albeit Andrew Balding’s hot pot has shown plenty of ability.  Seven assignments have come and gone since NIGHT OF GLORY gained his only success to date, having been sent off at a top price of 4/1 on five of those occasions (dual beaten favourite).  BARDD represents Nicky Henderson who has scored with nine of his last seventeen runners; hence the 11/4 ‘shout’.  Firmage Burg is not totally without claims but from a Placepot permutation viewpoint, I have to draw the line somewhere.

Favourite factor: This is another of the new races on the Kempton programme.

 

7.45: ERINYES (stable companion of the likely non-runner Pulsating earlier on the card) is potentially Archie Watson’s only raider here on Friday and in first time blinds from an inside draw, Oisin Murphy’s mount should figure prominently enough to warrant Placepot interest at the very least.  BOYCHICK has finished ‘in the two’ eight times via the last nine assignments and though Ed Walker’s Holy Roman Emperor gelding has not been seen for a long while, his chance is there for all to see in this grade/company.  Status Quo is the dark horse in the field, whilst Flight Of Fantasy represent little value for money from my viewpoint at the 2/1 odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite finished just out of the Placepot positions behind horses which filled the frame at 14/1, 5/1 & 20/1.

Course winners in the fifth race:

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1/2—Sureness

1/2—Erinyes

1/1--Beatisa

 

8.15: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals thus far which is a decent return given that just a lone 14/1 chance represented the vintage in the other contest.  KADRIZZI is the speculative each way call accordingly, especially as trainer Dean Ivory landed a nice 40/1 forecast for yours truly in a race at Chelmsford last time via my analysis at the Essex venue.  Indeed, Dean has also declared course specialist ELJADDAAF in the contest, whilst KODALINE is another option in an interesting last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders have ’troubled the judge’ thus far by claiming Placepot positions, stat which include one successful (7/2) favourite.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/8—Eljaddaf

2/3—Sparkalot

2/8—Born To Finish

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Friday – followed by their career ratios at the track + level profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—John Bridger (38/794 – loss of 369 points)

2—Andrew Balding (128/896 – loss of 110)

2—Milton Bradley (29/494 – loss of 272)

2—Tony Carroll (110/1186 – loss of 372)

2—Simon Dow (36/415 – loss of 131)

2—David Evans (67/734 – loss of 291)

2—Harry Fry (1/4 – loss of 1)

2—Roger Ingram (15/273 +21)

2—Dean Ivory (75/755 – loss of 33)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (33/381 – loss of 113)

2—Tony Newcombe (17/162 – loss of 74 points)

2—Jamie Osborne (58/522 – loss of 100)

2—John O’Shea (8/111 – loss of 52)

2—Mark Pattinson (2/10 +6)

2—Ed Walker (29/209 – loss of 50)

2—Archie Watson (8/29 +4)

2—Stuart Williams (3/52 – loss of 37)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: £18.00 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 4th January

CHELMSFORD – JANUARY 4

Corresponding Placepot dividend in 2017:

£58.30 (8 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Native Arrow) & 3 (Shakour)

Leg 2 (6.45): 8 (Wicker), 2 (Bold Prediction) & 3 (Gentlemen)

Leg 3 (7.15): 6 (Noble Behest) & 2 (Vettori Rules)

Leg 4 (7.45): 5 (Campas Scoobie), 3 (Udontdodou) & 2 (Robot Boy)

Leg 5 (8.15): 5 (Firmdecisions), 4 (Lucymai) & 8 (The Eagle’s Nest)

Leg 6 (8.45): 1 (Jorvik Prince) & 2 (Red Invader)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: NATIVE ARROW is the latest newcomer off the Charlie Appleby production Line and it’s worth noting that the trainer has secured a 31% strike rate since the end of June via 70 winners.  His worst month during the period ‘boasted’ a 23% ratio, stats which most trainers would die for at any stage during their relevant careers, let alone month on month!  The top yard declarations DANZAY (Mark Johnston) and SHAKOUR (John Gosden) make this a race to record with an eye to the future.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Chelmsford, hoping that races earlier in the day have gone your way!

 

6.45: It is hardly surprising that some support has arrived for GENTLEMAN overnight given his record at the course though more solid money from an each way perspective is in place for WICKER and BOLD PREDICITION just the right side of the each way quotes. GENTLEMEN has been called various names in the past (and present) but not too many owners that I know would turn their back on a four time winner, especially when writing out their cheques to pay for training fees at this time of the year.  Phil McEntee’s seven-year-old gelding races off an official mark in the ‘seventies’ for the first time in two years, a drop which gives him a Placepot opportunity for starters.

Favourite factor: One of the 7/2 joint favourites scraped into a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/7—Bold Prediction

4/13—Gentlemen

1/8—Lunar Deity

1/2—Wicker

2/7—Samphire Court

 

7.15: A change of stable (Marcus Tregoning to Robert Stephens) failed to stop NOBLE BEHEST in notching his four timer recently and there is no real knowing just how much more improvement lurks under the saddle.  Ladbrokes are out on a limb at the time of writing by offering 5/1 about VETTORI RULES and Gay Kelleway’s raider is offered the alternative call over Lost The Moon from a value for money perspective.  Start Seven represents Jamie Osborne who enjoyed a resurgence of winning form in December.  Two of Jamie’s last five runners have finished second to suggest that the winter will produce more winners for the popular trainer.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (via two renewals) have finished in the frame (exact science) without winning their respective events.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

2/7—Lost The Moon

1/1—Noble Behest

 

7.45: The course record of UDONTDODOU stands up to close inspection obviously and the only surprise overnight is that there has not been any real support for Richard Guest’s raider, especially with the trainer boasting positive level stake profits via his visits to this part of the country.  There has been plenty of interest in CAPTAIN SCOOBY however and the five-year-old could emerge into something of a ‘plunge horse’ by the time that dawn breaks this morning.  15/2 was still available at the time of writing but I do not expect that quote to last too long when the offices opening for business.  ROBOT BOY is difficult to catch right, though it’s hardly surprising that David Barron has decided to go to war with his eight-year-old Shamardal gelding given the form of his team with trainer having saddled four of his last seventeen runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

2/6—Royal Birth

3/4—Udontdodou

5/26—Dynamo Walt

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8.15: Dean Ivory saddled a winner on th corresponding card last year and I cannot help but note that there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue at double figures for his raider FIRMDECISIONS who has been backed almost right across the boards with conventional layers overnight.  It’s worth noting that Robert Winston takes the ride for the first time in ten starts, Dean’s eight-year-old having been dropped ten pounds since that last association.  Those of you who are taking the New Year by storm will have already noticed than on current form, stable companion LUCYMAI is the more obvious horse to back though either way, I’m quite content to let this pair represent yours truly as far as the Placepot is concerned this evening.  THE EAGLE’S NEST is feared most.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 market leaders finished nearer last than first in attempting to follow up the previous winning favourite who has been sent off at the same price.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

4/20—Loyalty

2/6—Lucymai

2/13—Upavon

1/6—Toy Theatre

1/1—The Eagle’s Nest

 

8.45: RED INVADER is the alternative each way option to JORVIK PRINCE for those of you wanting to take on the favourite in the final leg of our favourite wager.  Their course stats below offer confidence in just going to war with the two ‘selections’ in the lucky last.  Lisa Williamson has failed to saddle a winner via 33 runners since September which puts me off Mighty Zip who might otherwise have caught my attention via his 28% strike rate at the track.  Captain Scoobie (mind your ‘Scoobies’ on the card) is nominated as the reserve nomination accordingly.

Favourite factor:

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Jorvik Prince

2/5—Red Invader

4/14—Mighty Zip

1/3—Beau Mistral

1/3—Captain Scooby

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chelmsford card on Thursday – followed by their career stats at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Stuart Williams (35/223 +8 points)

3—Marco Botti (35/253 – loss of 36)

3—Dean Ivory (19/154 – loss of 29)

3—Derek Shaw (31/256 – loss of 22)

2—Michael Appleby (28/282 – loss of 112)

2—Brian Barr (1/21 – loss of 6)

2—David Barron (3/23 – loss of 11)

2—Tony Carroll (14/113 – loss of 23)

2—Rae Guest (6/55 – loss of 29)

2—Richard Guest (9/59 +28)

2—Gay Kelleway (6/91 – loss of 63)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

48 declared runners

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 3rd January

MUSSELBURGH – JANUARY 3 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £214.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 6 (Kelpies Myth), 8 (Silver Bullion) & 4 (Chookie Royale)

Leg 2 (1.30): 3 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 4 (Middlebrow) & 1 (Pot Commited)

Leg 3 (2.00): 8 (Nendrum), 2 (Sleep In First) & 4 (Lady Clitico)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Full Jack) & 2 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (3.00): 1 (Mixboy) & 4 (Archive)

Leg 6 (3.30): 9 (Paper Promise) & 1 (Detonate)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.00:  This race should be offered with a government health warning (see favourite stats below) even though one of the two market leaders scored via spilt divisions twelve months ago.  Overnight money has arrived for the lone course winner KELPIES MYTH and SILVER BULLION and in the face of previous results in the contest (and in a mediocre renewal) it might prove churlish in the extreme to ignore the potential ‘edges’.  Keith Dalgleish suffered a reversal (faller) yesterday on the opposite Scottish coastline though from a Placepot perspective, CHOOKIE ROYALE should give investors a decent run for their collective months on behalf of the stable.
Favourite factor: The first four winners of this event have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 13/2 & 4/1 before last year’s two divisions, with the relevant market leaders snaring old And silver medals, the winner scoring at 4/6.  Three of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions, though one of the (second placed) casualties from a win perspective was beaten at odds of 2/7.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Kelpies Myth (good)

 

1.30: Just as a general viewpoint regarding NH racing at Musselburgh (and on the flat come to mind), why do jockeys sit off the pace so much in Edinburgh, given that the layout of the track demands that horses race close to the pace if they have any chance of winning from meeting to meeting?  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although the two dual course winners might have preferred slightly better conditions, it would be surprising to say the least if both horses failed to figure at the business end of proceedings in such a weak looking event.  Chasing might enable POT COMMITED to rekindle some form, whilst the chance for MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE is there for all to see in this grade/company.  MIDDLEBROW is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Musselburgh card.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

2/2—Pot Commited (2 x good)

2/2—Millaghmurphy Blue (2 x good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds have won two of the four renewals in which vintage representatives were involved though in would take a great deal of blind faith to include this year’s lone vintage representative Great Coloci into even the Placepot mix. Far more logical winners include NENDRUM and SLEEP IN FIRST, even though their collective form does not amount to very much.  Rebecca Menzies does well with the few runners she saddles here and there will be worse outsiders on the Musselburgh card than LADY CLITICO I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include last year’s one successful (85/40) favourite from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Mitcd (good)

 

2.30: FULL JACK and JUMP FOR DOUGH appeal from value for money perspectives in another race on the card that will not take a great deal of winning.  RANDY PIKE did us a good turn the other day, though the even money quote in the trade press looks far too tight about a horse which got off the mark in a weak Market Rasen event at the sixth time of asking. COURT BALOO is offered the reserve nomination accordingly.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) winner.  That said, last year’s 11/8 market leader was the only horse which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/6—Full Jack (good to soft)

1/2—Lady London (good)

1/1—Court Baloo (good)

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3.00: Although this is a disappointing renewal of the Kilmany Cup event, last year’s winner MIXBOY looks to have obvious claims, albeit the ground will be softer than was encountered twelve months ago.  I thought that the Dalgleish favourite Niceandeasy was ‘vulnerable’ on yesterday’s Ayr card and so it proved, though MIXBOY comes here with a much better chance from my viewpoint.  At 2/1 with plenty of firms at the time of writing, MIXBOY is offered at a realistic price to defend his crown successfully.  ARCHIVE should present the strongest challenge when the whips are up according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 7/2 - 9/4 – 6/4 - 10/11.

Record of the course winners in the feature event:

1/1—Mixboy (good)

1/3—Trust Thomas (good)

 

3.30:  The exchanges appear to indicate that just two horses can be taken seriously in the finale, namely PAPER PROMISE and DETONATE, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference, not that I would back either of them with your money from a win perspective, especially with the disappointing market leader returns listed below.  Lucinda Russell saddled the 16/1 winner two years ago and I guess that BATON BLUE should not be dismissed too readily in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Although four of the five favourites have finished in the frame, just one (4/5) market leader has prevailed thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (2/19 +5) – 48/497 – loss of 156 points

4—Tim Vaughan (2/6 +8) – 9/51 – loss of 6

3—James Ewart (0/4) – 20/160 – loss of 45

2—George Bewley (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 20

2—Susan Corbett (0/9 – 4/56 – loss of 31

2—Keith Dalgleish (3/8 +3) – 9/39 – marginal loss

2—Chris Grant (0/4) – 15/194 – loss of 93 points

2—Micky Hammond (0/3) – 47/360 – loss of 5

2—Iain Jardine (0/10) – 4/47 – loss of 6

2—Christopher Kellett (0/1) – 0/2

2—Donald McCain (0/11) – 44/221 – marginal loss

2—Rebecca Menzies (1/5 slight profit) – 5/31 +24

2—Pauline Robson (0/2) – 7/46 – loss of 13

2—Katie Scott (First runners this season at the track) – 1/8 – loss of 1

2—Sandy Thomson (4/13 +12) – 16/77 +46

2—Alistair Whillans (2/7 +5) – 11/118 – loss of 31

+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners