Placepot Pointers has moved house…


After a number of years, Placepot Pointers has completed its tenure on geegeez.co.uk

My contract ended on Saturday after (literally) providing a daily column for 18 years for the Tote/Sporting Life/Geegeez.  I must have been doing something right to keep the work coming in.  Indeed, I was the longest serving freelance writer for the Sporting Life during my 16 year tenure with the company.

It’s only right for me to thank Matt Bisogno (geegeez.co.uk) for his loyalty for these last few years.  Matt is simply cutting back his editorial team now and we part on the very best of terms.  Matt is one of the good guys in racing from my experience and I obviously recommend you continue to visit his site whenever you have some time to spare.

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

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12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th June

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2

Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)

Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)

Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective.  The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET.  Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.  Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2.  5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)

 

6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate.  The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently.  It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.

 

6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening.  William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all.  Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

 

7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny.  Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous!  Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.

 

7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow.  Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)

 

8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend.  Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure.  My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.

Favourite factor:  All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 28th June

LEICESTER – JUNE 28 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £443.20 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 26.9% units went through – 3/1 & 16/1 (5/2)

Race 2: 30.5% of the remaining units when through – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

Race 3: 40.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 5: 68.8% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* & 9/1

Race 6: 40.1% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4* - 20/1 -12/1

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (5.40): 6 (Lexington Place), 5 (Captain Lars) & 2 (Bosham)

Leg 2 (6.10): 2 (Motafaawit) & 3 (Nayef Road)

Leg 3 (6.40): 2 (Poetic Force) & 4 (Boycie)

Leg 4 (7.15): 3 (Trogon), 4 (Bowler Hat) & 1 (Mrs Benson)

Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (Claudine) & 4 (Culdrose)

Leg 6 (8.20): 9 (Edge Of The World), 6 (Daffy Jane) & 5 (Mutabaahy)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

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5.40: Fort those of you that like to look at the corresponding results for last year’s meeting, this card was contested on the Tuesday (27th) of this week twelve months ago. Readers who like to play in running could be interested in this opening race on the card, principally because of the declaration of eleven time winner LEXINGTON PLACE.  Ruth Carr’s eight-year-old course winner is a slow starter in general terms but if breaking on level terms (thereabouts) in this grade/company, win number twelve could well be on the cards.  Have your finger primed on the relevant button because players in running are quick thinkers who jump on an ‘edge’ when it becomes available.  Aside from that scenario, CAPTAIN LARS and BOSHAM will rightly have more than their fair share of supporters.  Last year’s winner Vimy Ridge has already been withdrawn, robbing each way and Placepot players of a third place scenario.

Favourite factor: Only one of the six market leaders has claimed a Placepot position thus far when doing so by winning its relevant event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites four years ago.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Lexington Place (good to firm)

1/4—David’s Beauty (soft)

 

6.10: Just the four runners go to post for this Novice event which was contested by the same number of entries twelve months ago. MOTAFAAWIT was withdrawn on account of the fast ground at Salisbury yesterday whereby we could land up with just three contenders this evening.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that trainer Richard Hannon might chance his luck here with just three rivals to beat, the pick of which is undoubtedly Mark Johnston’s Nayef Galileo colt NAYEF ROAD, albeit a distance of ground will eventually bring out the best in the late (May) foal.

Favourite factor: Las year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite finished last of the four runners.

 

6.40: We still await the first successful market leader following five renewals, with three winners being returned at 10/1 alongside a pair of 5/1 chances.  Course winners Arrowzone if one of two seven-year-olds in the field, though four-year-olds lead the five-year-old 3-2 in the contest to date.  Those stats bring in the likes of POETIC FORCE and BOYCIE from my viewpoint and this pair are taken against their seven rivals this evening.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Arctic Sea.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Arrowzone (soft)

 

7.15: In contrast to the previous event on the card, this race has been great for favourite backers (see relevant stats below), with market leaders coming to the gig on a four-time on this occasion.  Mick Channon has won with his last two runners in the race (stats which include the only 14/1 rogue gold medallist to date), whereby TROGON is the first name on the team sheet, despite the fact that Mick’s gelding remains a maiden after a dozen assignments. BOWLER HAT and MRS BENSON are added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst eight gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 5/2 during the study period.

 

7.50: I opened with these words twelve months ago; “Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage handicaps, with vintage representatives on offer at 1/2 before the form book is consulted on this occasion.  At first glance, the 5/1 odds marked up in the trade press against the name of Hope Against Hope looks skinny to say the least with 16/1 available in a few places at the time of writing but that said, Mark Johnston’s 50/1 Nursery winner has been trimmed into 12/1 by plenty of firms as I write this column.  It remains to be seen how well the Dark Angel representative runs at the first time of asking this season, though any further support in the lead up to flag fall could be worth heeding”.  Hope Against Hope won by a hard held three lengths when returned at 7/1.  It would be great to call that type of result again a year down the line, though 5/1 is the most you might get about my pair against the field in this potential ‘dead eight’ event, namely CLAUDINE and CULDROSE.  The problem I have at the time of writing, is that I’m finding difficult the spilt the pair in terms of preference.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far via just the four renewals.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Zaria (heavy)

 

8.20: Two withdrawals are already in the offing but hopefully there are enough participants to create (at the very least) a ‘dead eight’ finale.  The only course winner EDGE OF THE WORLD is joined in the Placepot mix by DAFFY JANE and MUTABAAHY, though I wouldn’t have a ‘win bet’ with your money.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Edge Of The World (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 27th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £80.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 82.7% units went through – 5/1 – 11/4* - 10/3

Race 2: 15.9% of the remaining units when through – 2/1* - 7/2 – 7/1

Race 3: 20.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 & 4/1 (6/4)

Race 4: 43.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 3/1 (15/8)

Race 5: 67.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 3/1* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.4% of the units secured the dividend – 10/3 & 13/2 (2/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Forseti), 2 (Dombra) & 1 (Dirty Rascal)

Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Edged Out), 5 (Silverrica) & 3 (Rio Ronaldo)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (It’s the Only Way), 2 (Oberyn Martell) & 8 (Curfewed)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Big Tour), 3 (Valcartier) & 7 (Aquarium)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Drill) & 5 (Mekong)

Leg 6 (4.40): 4 (Okool) & 2 (Mistress Quickly)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.10: ‘Team Hannon’ have won three of the last nine renewals of this opening event and in DIRTY RASCAL, Richard has declared a representative which has already shown a fair amount of potential.  This additional furlong should suit and if successful, it will be worth looking for Dunkerron’s entry over the course of the weekend, with Alan King’s Windsor winner (Dirty Rascal finished second) holding three entries on Saturday/Monday at the time of writing.  Richard Hannon has also offered the green light to his Intikhab newcomer Motafaawit which complicates matters to a fashion, though Jim Crowley’s mount is proving easy to back as I pen this column. Connections thought that DOMBRA could be a Royal Ascot juvenile in the making whereby this far lesser test should ensure a Placepot position at the very least. Similar comments could also apply to FORSETI I guess, especially as he was a 33/1 chance at the first time of asking when like Dombra, he finished a promising fourth with a juvenile success probably there for the taking at the right level.

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Favourite factor: 13 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions to date (six winners), statistics which ignore the 15/8 favourite in 2012 which was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.  Out of interest, the second favourite won the race at odds of 11/4.

 

2.40: EDGED OUT was due to contest this race last year but was withdrawn on account of the yielding conditions.  There will not be a repeat of that scenario twelve months on however with the sun beating down on this green and pleasant land for the foreseeable future.  It’s unusual for the west to create the highest temperature during a heatwave but that was the case yesterday when Wales recorded the highest reading at over thirty degrees. Back to the sport on offer and with EDGED OUT being a previous course and distance winner who is running off a sixteen ounce lower mark today, we can presume that Chris Mason’s Piccolo mare will be in the thick of things at the business end of proceedings.  SILVERICCA cannot be ignored either, despite the fact that that soft ground would have played to her strengths.  The fact remains however, that John Egan’s mount won this event two years ago when carrying an additional five pounds whereby you can detect that her Placepot chance (at the very least) is there for all to see.  That all said, RIO RONALDO also boasts obvious claims from further up the handicap following a fine Sandown effort the last day.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have snared Placepot positions via ten renewals to date, statistics which include five (7/2, 3/1, 11/4, 5/2 & 2/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Edged Out (good to firm)

1/4—Silverrica (soft)

 

3.10: Messers Hannon (IT’S THE ONLY WAY & SIRINAPHA) & Channon (CURFEWED) have equally shared four of the last six contests between them, though their respective raiders face a decent rival in OBERYN MARTELL in an interesting event.  Mick won the race last year with a 25/1 newcomer whereby the 16/1 quote this morning for Curfewed is not likely to throw yours truly off the scent as the morning wears on.  IT’S THE ONLY WAY has already proved his durability and looks sure to go very close again.  Rossa Ryan’s mount hails from Lilbourne Lad stock which pleases the Hannon team no end with their former inmate having represented the stable to great effect a few years ago.  Throw Queen Shaahd into the mix and we have cracking two-year-old race to witness.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won to date, whilst nine market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.  12 of the 16 winners won at 4/1 or less, with 25/1-13/2-10/1-7/1 chances snaring the other four contests.

 

3.40: Five-year-olds have won five of the last thirteen renewals of this contest whilst ten of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-5. There are no relevant vintage raider in the field this time around, whilst BIG TOUR and VALCARTIER make most appeal from those towards the top of the handicap.  AQUARIUM could out run his double figure price, albeit from well below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Mr Top Hat (heavy)

1/1—Power Of Darkness (good to firm)

 

4.10: Ten of the seventeen winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include seven of the last eleven gold medallists. Luca Cumani has only saddled one horse during the last nine days (beaten a short head), whilst the popular trainer was only conspicuous by his absence at Royal Ascot this year.  I’m hoping that DRILL can show the way forward this afternoon because as sure as night follows day, Luca will come roaring back to form any time soon and it’s worth noting that his number of runners look set to increase over the next few days according to the entries list.  Connections might have most to fear from MEKONG who looks a tad over the odds at 11/2 in a place as I head towards the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the previous 12 years before the 9/4** market leader obliged four years ago.  The race has reverted to type since then with market leading disappointing in general terms.

Record of the course winners in this Bibury Cup event:

1/1—Burgonet (good to firm)

 

4.40: The last eleven winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-4 or less which goes against the grain as the two horses I fancy most here are OKOOL and MISTRESS QUICKLY.  That said, I’m offering the pair from a Placepot perspective which should prove successful as long as at least eight of the nine declarations face the starter.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders (via twelve renewals) to date have claimed Placepot positions (four winners).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Air Squadron (2 x good to firm)

1/3—Fitzwilly (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 26th June

NEWBURY – JUNE 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,782.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 66.2% units went through – 3/1* - 6/1 – 8/1

Race 2: 28.3% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 – 20/1 – 13/2 (4/1)

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4* - 20/1 – 20/1

Race 4: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 11/4* - 8/1

Race 5: 4.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 16/1 – 11/1 (3/1)

Race 6: 12.0% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 15/2, 12/1 (5/1)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 5 (Outofthequestion) & 3 (Kings Inn)

Leg 2 (6.40): 9 (Iconic Choice), 3 (Canford Dancer) & 8 (Fast Endeavour)

Leg 3 (7.10): 8 (Lolita Polido), 12 (Spanish Aria) & 2 (Cottontail)

Leg 4 (7.40): 4 (Tuff Rock) & 1 (Teodoro)

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Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (Carlini), 3 (Enzo) & 5 (Dukeofwallingford)

Leg 6 (8.45): 2 (Swanton Blue), 6 (Yogiyogiyogi) & 9 (Global Excel)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.10: Starting point to the meeting; there are no course winners in the Placepot races tonight, lest you thought I had forgotten to include the service!  Secondly; if you were trying to find the results of the corresponding meeting from last year, you need to go to the Thursday of the same week (29th). Upwards and onward by informing that four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last seven renewals of this event and the trend looks certain to gain momentum this year with the likes of OUTOFTHEQUESTION and KINGS INN having been declared by their dual purpose trainers, namely Alan King and Paul Nicholls respectively.  Hopefully, just the two ‘selections’ will be enough to progress through to the second leg of our favourite wager, this being a potential ‘dead eight’ event.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last five favourites (via four renewals) has secured a Placepot position (no winners).

 

6.40: ICONIC CHOICE seems to logical place to start after a decent effort at Haydock at the first time of asking when closing on the three principles close home without the jockey using his whip.  Michael Bell expected better of his Pastoral Pursuits filly FAST ENDEAVOUR from what we have witnessed thus far but it is still early doors in her career, whereby another Placepot position cannot be ruled out of the equation.  CANFORD DANCER was reluctant at the stalls and raced wide when making her debut, finishing best of the newcomers. 14/1 looks a big enough price about the Richard Hughes raider in this grade/company.

Favourite factor:  Both of the (4/1 & 9/4) favourites have finished out with the washing to date.

 

7.10: COTTONTAIL looks a tad too big at 14/1 in a place this morning, now stepping up a couple of furlongs following her debut over the minimum trip.  That said, there was plenty to like about LOLITA POLIDO at the first time of asking at Kempton too, especially with the form having been franked to decent effect.  John Gosden reports that SPANISH ARIA has a little bit of temperament about her but John is one to enthuse over such mannerisms rather than worry about them.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

7.40: There is a plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue about TUFF ROCK and TEODORO as the heat begins to kick in already this morning on another wonderful summer day in Bristol.  The race is likely to be run to suit David Simcock’s first named inmate who represents the stable for the first time.  David is adept at taking in ‘refugees’ from other yards and finding a few pounds and pounces of improvement, which is all that might be necessary to lift this prize.  I guess we should not entirely rule Travertine out of the mix too quickly, given that Jonjo O’Neill has saddled six of his last 14 runners to winning effect, statistics which have produced ten points of level stake profit during the period.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

 

8.10: Seven of the eight winners have carried weights between nine stones and 9-6 which eliminates the top two horses in the handicap, leaving the merits of ENZO and DUKEOFWALLINGFORD to (arguably) consider first and foremost.  Brian Meehan saddles his first runners tonight (CARLINI in this contest) since thwarting the huge gamble in the ‘Wokingham’ on Saturday relating to Dreamfield who was sent off as the shortest priced market leader in the race for as long as anyone can recall.  One of the worst things punters can do is listen to comments of media commentators who generalise all too often.  Yes, the victory of Brian’s Bacchus would have annoyed many a person, but possibly not as much as the rails bookmakers who laid the 33/1 winner to a ‘grand’ each way just before the off!

Favourite factor: There is only one successful (9/4) favourite to report via eight renewals thus far.  Detectives are still out searching for the other seven market leaders which failed to reach the frame!

 

8.45: Last year’s beaten favourite DEEDS NOT WORDS has been declared again but as has been offered before, I tend to find Michael Wigham’s runners working better for me when they are at a double figure price.  Accordingly, I prefer the likes of SWANTON BLUE, YOGIYOGIYOGI and GLOBAL EXCEL on this occasion. There is plenty of money queuing up for Deeds Not Words at the time of writing, though that is nothing new.  I was ‘on’ a few months ago at a double figure price which was halved in no time at all, only for the horse to be withdrawn…

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/1 favourite (Deeds Not Words) finished out of the money.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 25th

WINDSOR – JUNE 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)

Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*

Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*

Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*

Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)

Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)

Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)

Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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 6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year.  It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else.  Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years.  Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.

 

6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue.  Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride.  That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting).  Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut.  That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.

 

7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event.  The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form.  Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:

1/1—Buffer Zone (good)

 

8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH.  Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long.  MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Desert Path (good)

 

8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed.  Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)

Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.

Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.

As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 24th June

PONTEFRACT – JUNE 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £31.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 80.4% units went through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 13/2

Race 2: 69.8% of the remaining units when through – 1/3* (Win only)

Race 3: 36.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 11/4 (5/2)

Race 4: 64.8% of the remaining units went through – Evens* - 9/1 – 40/1

Race 5: 38.2% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 (11/8)

Race 6: 20.0% of the units secured the dividend – 7/4 & 7/1 (11/8)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Heavenly Bliss) & 4 (Poetry)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Hazarfya) & 1 (Beauvais)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Dr Richard Kimble), 2 (Rainbow Rebel) & 3 (Indomeneo)

Leg 4 (3.30): 3 (Alwaysandforever) & 5 (Cribbs Causeway)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Frederic), 1 (Suegioo) & 8 (Becky The Thatcher)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Excellent Times), 2 (Crotchet), 4 (Procedure) & 3 (Revived)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

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2.00: Mark Johnston (not represented this year) might have been frightened away by the two Newmarket raiders HEAVENLY BLISS and POETRY who are listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  Sir Michael Stoute (HEAVENLY BLISS) will be looking for compensation following the defeat of his 2/1 market leader twelve months ago when finding one too good on the day. POETRY is a Kingman representative and Michael Bell has found a half decent chance for his January foal to score at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured one silver medal between them alongside a Placepot position.

 

2.30: Mark Johnston’s Thirsk winner Bayshore Freeway is not easily overlooked, especially as Mark’s three-year-old humped 10-2 to victory the last day.  That said, the two Newmarket raider look particularly strong on this occasion, with HAZARFIYA marginally preferred to Saeed Bon Suroor’s debut Ripon winner BEAUVAIS.  Sir Michael Stoute’s first named raider ran in the Cheshire Oaks last time out and this drop in grade should bring about a victory, especially with the trainer currently boasting a 33% strike rate via his last seven winners, statistics which have produced level stake profits of 22 points via some of the most difficult races to win on the entire racing calendar!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

 

3.00: Only eighteen three-year-olds have contested this event to date, producing four winners, four seconds, two thirds and three fourth placed efforts in the process, whilst ten of the eleven winner have carried 8-13 or more. Unfortunately, the relevant trio of three-year-olds fail the weight trend but that said, it’s difficult to leave DR RICHARD KIMBLE and INDOMENEO out of the mix, especially from a Placepot perspective.  I highlighted the chance of 12/1 shot RAINBOW REBEL at Chelmsford the other night (returned at 9/1) and it’s significant that Mark’s runner up has been declared just three days later.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

3/13—Trinity Star (2 x good & good to firm)

 

3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 8-4 during the last twelve years and having pinned my faith on the last two 9/1 and even money (four-year-old) winners, I’ll opt for ALWAYSANDFOREVER to complete the hat trick in a fascinating contest.  Her nine length victory at Windsor last time out had to be seen to be believed and with Luca Cumani champing at the bit to find winners just now (Luca had no runners at Royal Ascot during the entire week), we can safely presume that Ryan Moore’s mount will be well fired up today.  Luca boasts a 24% strike rate at this venue down the years and it is surely significant that ALWAYSANDFOREVER is his first runner at the track this season.  CRIBBS CAUSEWAY is preferred to Mark Johnston tigress Titi Makfi, albeit oh so marginally.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include five winners.

 

4.00: I have made reference to these Pontefract staying events plenty of times, but I reiterate that this contest resembles a graded greyhound race with the greatest respect to our canine friends, whereby horses go into the traps shaking hooves, begging the question, whose turn is it to win today?  If you want proof of that statement, you only have to digest the fact that four of the six course winners which contest the Placepot races at Pontefract this afternoon line up for this event.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, which suggests that SUEGIOO and last year’s beaten favourite FREDERIC enter the equation.  Add BECKY THE THATCHER into the mix and we should get through to the Placepot finale, providing we have survived the first four legs successfully.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three favourites which prevailed from a win perspective during the study period.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/2—Frederic (good)

2/3—Win Place And Sho (good to firm & good to soft)

1/2—Medicine Hat (good)

1/2—Becky The Thatcher (good to firm)

 

4.30: PROCEDURE is a 9/1 chance with four leading firms this morning which looks a tad big given Sir Muchael Stoute’s current form (see full details in the 2.30 analysis).  That said, the claims of EXCELLENT TIMES and CROTCHET at the top of the market are impossible to ignore.  I have this nagging worry that a non-runner might raise its ugly head in the last leg our favourite wager, whereby I am also including Michael Bell’s raider REVIVED into the equation, given that the race would develop in to a frightening ‘win only’ contest should my notion evolve.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Pontefract programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

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Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £49.40 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £1,251.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £649.28 

45 favourites - 13 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.9% units went through – 20/1 – 2/1* - 20/1

Race 2: 62.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 -10/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 96.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 11/4 – 9/2

Race 4: 83.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 12/1

Race 5: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 27.9% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 13/2 – 14/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 10 (Main Edition), 1 (Angel’s Hideaway) & 8 (Just Wonderful)

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Old Persian), 6 (Elector) & 5 (Highbrow)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Sioux Nation), 11 (Invisible Army) & 20 (Heartache)

Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Alpha Centauri) & 12 (Veracious)

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Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Desert Diamond), 15 (Ceilidh’s Dream & 17 (Agrotera)

Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Appeared), 4 (Walton Street) & 15 (Eynhallow)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Mark Johnston snared the last race on Thursday and MAIN EDITION is my idea of the likeliest winner of the opening contest today, especially with the trainer having booked James Doyle to ride the Zoffany filly.  The combination boast a 5/15 ratio this season and coming into this event having won both of her races in impressive style to date, MAIN EDITION is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY (looks a tad big at 16/1 with Unibet for a ‘Frankie’ contender) and JUST WONDERFUL who appears to be the pick of the O’Brien pair at the top of the market.

Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last sixteen renewals, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last five year and there will be worse outsiders on the card today than his Dansili colt ELECTOR I’ll wager.  Zaaki ran well at a big price yesterday (as I anticipated) and ELECTOR could follow suit in what could arguably be called a slight sub-standard renewal of the ‘Edward VII’ this afternoon.  Talking of outsiders, I would not readily dismiss the chance of HIGHBROW at 25’s either, albeit a more logical winner to consider is OLD PERSIAN from my viewpoint. 7/1 about Rostropoich might be worth consideration from a win perspective, but Aidan’s raider will not offer value for money from a Placepot angle according to the gospel of yours truly.  I took that view about Order Of St George yesterday which proved to be the right route to take having landed the forecast in the Gold Cup.

Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last twenty one market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period.  Five of the other twelve market leaders finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Elector (soft)

 

3.40: Being a self-confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only three contests to work from.  Last year’s ‘Queen Mary’ winner HEARTACHE is the ‘dark horse’ in the field and having rattled home here under fast conditions twelve months ago, I prepared to gamble that she will manage the sixth furlong well enough to potentially secure a Placepot position at around the 20/1 mark. INVISIBLE ARMY strikes me as a more logical winner over this trip however, with connections possibly having most to fear from SIOUX NATION. Conditions look set to suit Aidan O’Brien’s latter named raider which might just tip the scales in his favour.  Main Desire is another win and place option for speculative readers to consider.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first before the last two successful (7/4 & 5/6) favourites made amends on behalf of the majority of punters.

Record of the four course winners in the Commonwealth Cup:

1/1—Invincible Army (soft)

1/1—Sioux Nation (good to firm)

1/1—Speak In Colours (soft)

1/1—Heartache (good to firm)

 

4.20: ALPHA CENTUARI was the beaten 2/1 favourite when going under by a neck in last year’s ‘Albany’ here at the royal meeting.  Jessica Harrington’s Mastercraftsman filly is one of three Guineas winners in the line up this time around and I have a sneaking feeling that she will come out on top today.  The other classic heroines of late are passed over in favour of Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly VERACIOUS whose mum Infallible finished second in this event to Lush Lashes ten years ago.  I’m content to let this pair do the talking for me in the most open ‘Coronation’ for quite a while, on paper at least.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last sixteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time nine market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites.  Fourteen of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

5.00: High numbers in the draw appear to have the edge this week (as is usually the case in all honesty) up the straight mile course whereby the chance for DESERT DIAMOND (drawn) 19/23 is very much respected.  Connections of AGROTERA (5) have not been so fortunate but Jamie Spencer knows the time of day at this venue and will be plotting his own route at breakfast, if he allowed such a luxury this morning!  Others to consider include Ralph Beckett’s pair from my viewpoint, namely CEILIDH’S DREAM (22) and DE FIDE (3) who are listed in order of preference but once again, mainly because of their relevant stall positions.

Favourite factor:  Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Sandringham Stakes (Handicap): 

1/1—Dathanna (soft)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen contests, with five-year-olds claiming the other four renewals.  Indeed, five-year-olds have secured the last two tricast positions and taking all the facts and stats into consideration, the trio of APPEARED, WALTON STREET AND EYNHALLOW is listed in marginal order of preference.  APPEARED has to overcome a break of ten months from the track, though I cannot overlook the fact that Roger Varian’s raider runs off a two pound higher mark than when finishing second in the event twelve months ago behind one of my short listed selections who won at 20/1 before picking up a Listed prize next time out.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Cheuvelin who looks ridiculously priced at 66/1 in a place at the time of writing.  The chance of Count Calabash is not discounted either from the other end of the market.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Appeared (good to firm)

1/4—Manjaam (good to firm)

1/1—Count Calabash (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £574.63

46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)

Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1

Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1

Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)

Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)

Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)

Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)

Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes.  Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking.  SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).

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3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning.  More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:

1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around.  SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race.  Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1.  That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago.  Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount.  Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure.  If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races.  Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.

Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)

1/7—Sheikhzayedroad (good)

1/4—Torcedor (soft)

1/3—Mount Moriah (good)

1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)

 

5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion.  The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1).  FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.

Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.

Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

1/1—Curiosity (good)

1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £156.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £165.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)

2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,141.39

46 favourites - 14 winners - 10 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 39.5% units went through – 2/1* - 66/1 – 20/1

Race 2: 84.2% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 10/11* - 14/1

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 40/1 – 11/4

Race 4: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 – 10/1 – 9/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 10.2% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1 (13/2)

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 7/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (6/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 17 (Shades Of Blue) & 1 (Chelsea Cloisters)

Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Stream Of Stars) & 5 (Kew Gardens)

Leg 3 (3.40): 1 (Hydrangea) & 4 (Arabian Moon)

Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Cracksman) & 6 (Poet’s Word)

Leg 5 (5.00): 32 (Seniority), 21 (Settle For Bay), 18 (Cape Byron), 24 (Medahim) & 26 (Mukalal)

Leg 6 (5.35): 15 (Society Power), 17 (Symbolization) 14 (Purser) & 18 (Tabdeed)

Suggested stake: 320 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Clive Cox denied Wesley Ward securing a hat trick in this event twelve months ago and the two trainers could be locked in a dual up front via their respective individuals this year, namely SHADES OF BLUE and CHELSEA CLOISTERS.  The exchanges are offering 10/1 bar the two at the time of writing, though punters with burned fingers are still queuing up at the casualty department of the nearest hospital yesterday after the demise of the leading contenders in the opening race of the meeting.  I doubt that this pair will finish out of the frame however, offering up KURIOUS as the each way call whose sire won group races in Australia over sprint trips from the phenomenal Exceed And Excel line of thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor:  Seven clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 renewals, whilst 16 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

3.05: Although both trainers have other runners in the race, John Gosden (STREAM OF STARS) and Aidan O’Brien (KEW GARDENS) look set to lock horns at the business end of the contest with their respective raiders.  John won with this year’s Gold Cup hope Stradivarius twelve months ago and I’m just siding with his inmate this time around, albeit Aidan is looking for his fifth victory in the race during the last nine years.  LYNWOOD GOLD could give each way investors a decent run for their collective monies, with Mark Johnston also boasting a good record in the contest down the years.  Only Sir Henry Cecil can beat Mark’s tally of seven winners in the Queen’s Vase, with maestro having gone one better during his wonderful career.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions of late, statistics which include seven winners.  19 of the last 21 winners of the Queens Vase were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the 'Queen’s Vase': 

1/1—Stream Of Stars (good to firm)

 

3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 29 horses that have claimed Placepot positions from the 42 available places to date, statistics which includes twelve of the fourteen winners. Indeed, four-year-olds have won the last nine renewals of this contest and I fully expect the likes of HYDRANGEA and ARABIAN HOPE to represent the vintage to good effect for their famous connections.  Third spot could go to Urban Fox at around the 10/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the two course winners in the 'Duke of Cambridge': 

1/2—Hydrangea (soft)

1/3—Urban Fox (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 16 of the 17 renewals of this Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as Desert Encounter (the only other runner outside of the relevant horses) surely has little chance of prevailing. John Gosden enjoyed a sparkling day yesterday but he will be looking for compensation for the defeat of inmate Jack Hobbs in this event twelve months ago.  The 2/1 favourite folded like the proverbial pack of cards that day, though stable representative Cracksman will be more like a 4/7 chance today with ‘Frankie’ boasting definite claims of extending his lead as top jockey at the meeting after his treble yesterday.  Dettori has now ridden 59 Royal Ascot winners, scoring at least once in 23 years of his glittering career.  Surely only POET’S WORD can be given a chance against the Gosden/Dettori bandwagon.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last 21 favourites have won, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders have reached the frame.

Record of the three course winners in the feature race on the card: 

1/1—Cracksman (soft)

13—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

1/1—Hawkbill (soft)

 

5.00: 15 of the last 20 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests.  Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005.  Six of the first eight horses home four years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field on fast ground, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16.  Last year’s 25/1 winner Zhui Feng was the second horse mentioned in despatches but Amanada Perrett’s raider runs from trap two this time around. Pat Dobbs is sure to take them along at a decent clip on the far side, though preference is for the draw/vintage/weight trends to pay dividends again via the likes of SENIORITY (drawn 30), SETTLE FOR BAY (22), CAPE BYRON (25) and MEDAHIM (28).  The reserve nominations are MUKALAL (32) and KYNREN (11).

Favourite factor:  Only five of the last 24 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner--nine years ago).

Record of the four course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup: 

1/5—Zhul Feng (good to firm)

1/1—Cape Byron (soft)

2/5—Raising Sand (good & Good to soft)

1/1—Bless Him (good to firm)

Draw statistics for the last eleven renewals of the race (most recent result listed first) + SP details:

26-22-18-11 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1

4-26-20-10 (28 ran-soft) – 10/1-8/1-14/1-20/1

11-19-10-21 (30 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-9/1-16/1-25/1

33-14-23-29 (28 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-14/1-33/1-14/1

6-2-10-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-40/1-50/1-25/1

33-18-21-13 (30 ran-good) – 16/1-33/1-50/1-66/1

24-30-25-14 (28 ran-good) – 12/1-7/1*-20/1-33/1

11-12-2-5 (29 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-12/1-12/1-12/1

33-29-30-13 (25 ran-good to firm) – 4/1*-25/1-9/1-16/1

27-30-26-25 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-10/1-25/1-33/1

17-12-27-1 (26 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-16/1-50/1-17/2

The average priced winner during this study period: 13/1

Average priced placed horse: 18/1

Draw conclusions:

Horses drawn 1-15: 4 winners – 15 placed

Horses drawn 16+: 7 winners – 19 placed

If you fancy playing the forecast/Tricast wagers, it might prove best to perm high numbered horses looking at recent results, irrespective of the form lines!

On good to firm ground in 2009 & 2008 respectively, these odds were realised:

Exacta forecasts: 159/1 & 303/1.  In 2009, the Tricast paid 366/1 despite the favourite winning, whilst the Trifecta in 2008 paid 6,119/1.  Those were the figures I offered last year before the Exacta forecast paid £559.90 on fast ground twelve months ago, the first two horses home having emerged from stalls 16 & 22.

 

5.35: 28 of the last 42 available Placepot positions (67%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed.  11 of the last 15 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1, though three of the last four results have bucked that trend. Upwards and onward in positive mode as much as is humanly possible in another daunting renewal of the Jersey Stakes.  Surprisingly perhaps, I looked at this race first, which suggests just how difficult the contest could be, even from a Placepot perspective with just three places up for grabs. My pin has fallen on the quartet of SOCIETY POWER, SYMBOLIZATION, PURSER and TABDEED.

Favourite factor:  The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013.  Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites four years ago filled the forecast positions before results returned to negative type in each of the following two years before the 2/1 marker leader prevailed twelve months ago. Ten of the relevant market leaders claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale (Jersey Stakes): 

1/1—Mukalal (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:

2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £522.47

45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*

Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1

Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)

Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)

Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)

Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30:  Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour.  Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old.  It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests.  No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time.  With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory.  A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around.  That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market.  Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

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1/2—Benbati (good to firm)

1/3—Century Dream (soft)

1/3—Limato (goot to firm)

1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective.  No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record.  A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career.  Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise.  That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)

1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years: 

11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced

15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 15 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 5 winners & 9 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess.  We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results.  Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning?  Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours!  On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money!  LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time

Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)

1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)

1/1—Different League (good to firm)

 

4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with.  Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid.  The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader.  There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago.  Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile.  There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/6—Hassle (good)

1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:

1/1—Laraaib (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £9.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 placed)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.1% units went through – 5/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 68.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 3: 44.2% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* - 14/1 – 12/1

Race 4: 66.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 3/1 – 7/1

Race 5: 81.7% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 10/11* - 15/2

Race 6: 62.7% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/2 – 7/4*

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Tiar Na Nog) & 2 (Kath’s Legacy)

Leg 2 (6.30): 8 (Implicit) & 4 (Nefarios)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Irene’s Prince), 7 (Balsim) & 5 (Wolf Hunter)

Leg 4 (7.30): 10 (Titus Secret), 6 (Oh So Sassy) & 7 (Field Of Vision)

Leg 5 (8.00): 6 (Sir Plato) & 3 (Shadow Warrior)

Leg 6 (8.30): 6 (Seaborough), 3 (Tour De Paris) & 2 (Bajan Gold)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • We landed yet another Placepot dividend (at Salisbury) yesterday which produced 19 points of profit.

 

6.00: Four of the six winners have carried 9-1 or more which eliminates the bottom three horses in the list (one via a claimer) if you take the stats seriously, as does this self-confessed ‘anorak’.  TIAR NA NOG only found a rival in red hot form too good for her last week and connections of Denis Coakley’s six-year-old mare should gain compensation in this grade/company.  KATH’S LEGACY looks likely to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Biotic.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders (one gold and three silver medallists) have secured Placepot positions thus far.

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Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/10—Biotic (good)

1/3—Munsarim (good to firm)

 

6.30: Support for IMPLICIT from James Tate’s shrewd yard would be a positive pointer towards the twice raced Kodiac filly, though realistic money in the positive exchange queue has already arrived for Henry Candy’s Zebedee colt NEFARIOS which is impossible to ignore.  Oona will not doubt run another sound race but it would be a tad disappointing if the first named pair failed to finish in front of Richard Hannon’s February foal.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished second thus far whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

7.00: David Evans has won six of the last seven renewals and with two of the eleven entries in David’s care, IRENE’S PRINCE and BLASIM are the first two names on the team should which you might have guessed.  That said, Richard Hughes has a decent bunch of juveniles at his disposal this year and WOLF HUNTER was running on well at Goodwood last week which suggests that this slightly tougher track (with an additional furlong to travel) will suit.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 14 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 13 years having been returned at just 7/1.  The last twelve gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1.  14/15 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

7.30: All twelve winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that catch the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of OH SO SASSY, TITUS SECRET and FIELD OF VISION.  The booking of Gerald Mosse for Clive Cox’s first named raider is particularly eye-catching given their 3/6 ratio when teaming up thus far.

Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed Placepot positions via eight contests at the time.  Two of the four subsequent market leaders (one winner) have added Placepot positions to the tally.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/6—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

3/8—Englishman (good – good to firm – soft)

1/1—Blitz (good)

1/2—Libertum (good to soft)

2/4—Anonymous John (good & heavy)

 

8.00: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the twelve renewals thus far, yet only four trainers (of eight in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with four time course winner SIR PLATO and SHADOW WARRIOR (1/1 at the track) taking centre stage from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites.  Eleven of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst eight market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.

Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Shadow Warrior (good to firm)

1/2—Kingston Kurrajung (soft)

4/6—Sir Plato (2 x good to soft – good – good to firm)

1/7—Harlequin Striker (soft)

 

8.30: Eight of the winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 whereby SEABOROUGH, TOUR DE PARIS and BAJAN GOLD will represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  Hopefully England will be at least one or two goals to the good ion the football front by the time that flag fall arrives!  Then again….

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have won during which time, four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 17th June

SALISBURY – JUNE 17

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £518.90 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 74.5% units went through – 4/6* - 14/1 – 16/1

Race 2: 25.5% of the remaining units when through – 12/1 – 4/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 3: 20.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 12/1 – 12/1 (2/1)

Race 4: 28.7% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 9/2 – 16/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 58.2% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 10/11* - 6/1

Race 6: 21.7% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 4/1 – 16/1 (11/4)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Salisbury: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 1 (Chikoko Trail) & 4 (Wicked Sea)

Leg 2 (2.55): 4 (Font Vert) & 10 (Cross My MInd)

Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Gumriyah) & 8 (Wohileh)

Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Buckingham), 6 (Magical Wish) & 5 (Khafooq)

Leg 5 (4.25): 4 (Cardsharp), 5 (Shabaaby) & 3 (Dancing Star)

Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Blanchefleur), 1 (Silca Mistress) & 7 (Great Shot Sam)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

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2.25: Mick Channon won with four of his first six runners at Salisbury this season (where else do you get this type of nonsense?) and though his subsequent seven raiders have been beaten at the track, the eye is drawn to his only runner on Sunday which is CHIKOKO TRAIL.  The alternative option is pretty obvious with WICKED SEA having run well at this venue on Tuesday, particularly as Richard Hannon’s Zebedee filly could be considered ‘well in’ given that she will almost undoubtedly rise in the weights in the week ahead, providing that the maiden (after five assignments) does not disappoint from a Placepot perspective today.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sister Celine.

Favourite factor: Only two favourites (both returned at 3/1) have won during the last decade.  That said, nine of the last ten winners scored at 9/1, whilst four of the last five market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

2.55: Ralph Beckett saddles two runners in the race which complicates things to a fashion, though I doubt that both inmates will finish out of the money in this grade/company.  Silvestre De Sousa boasts a 31% strike rate riding three-year-olds for the stable during the last five years whereby I’m going against the projected favourite here by nominating FONT VERT over stable companion CROSS MY MIND on this occasion.  If Ralph is to be denied, Acquirer is the likeliest joker in the pack from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite duly obliged, the only successful market leader on the Placepot card.

 

3.25: With the benefit of two previous runs last year, John Gosden’s Shamardal filly GUMRIYAH will probably be good enough to win this event, especially as there has not been a great deal of support for WOHILEH from the Owen Burrows stable. Luca Cumani’s KONIGIN is proving just as easy to back in the dead of night which suggests that John’s filly should prevail, albeit at cramped odds. That said, it’s early doors on a particularly quiet Sunday as far as the markets are concerned, whereby it might not take a great deal of liquidity to shift the odds.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

 

3.55: Well played to the Salisbury executive for pinning the great name of Peter Walwyn to this event, a decision that would have made racegoers out here in the west-country particularly happy.  Peter’s finest hours were courtesy of his Epsom Derby and ‘King George & Queen Elizabeth’ winner GRUNDY of course, forever remembered in a great duel with Bustino in 1975. His other victories included the Dewhurst and the Irish Derby in a scintillating career during which Peter was as ever, humble to the last. Only five horses at that time had ever received a higher rating going into his three-year-old career which is probably worth recalling as much as ‘the race of the century’ as the Ascot event was called at the time.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that it would be appropriate if Sir Michael Stoue (KHAFOOQ) won this event, given that Michael was two years into his training career when Grundy made his first appearance on a racecourse.  This is only Michael’s fourth juvenile runner of the season however (no winners to date), whereby a watching (Placepot) brief is as far as we might support the Kodiac representative this afternoon.  For the record, Michael has saddled a dozen two-year-old winners at this venue from 100 representatives down the years. From a win perspective, BUCKINGHAM and MAGICAL WISH are preferred.  Don’t be in too much of a hurry to ignore Cruck Railie (a 33/1 chance at the time of writing) as Ralph Beckett’s well touted raider can only improve on the effort shown on the first day at school.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has secured a Placepot position without winning its respective event.  That scenario unfolded here twelve months ago when this year’s 1,000 Guineas winner Billesdon Brook was touch off at odds of 10/11 for the Richard Hannon team.  For the record. ‘BB’ was being beaten for the third successive occasion (twice as a market leader), finally scoring next time when losing her maiden tag before making rapid improvement as a three-year-old!

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Steeve (heavy)

 

4.25: Recent winners of this Listed race include Sakhee’s Secret, Etlaala, Moss Vale, Libranno and Avonbridge.  ’Team Hannon’ have won six of the last ten renewals which is a terrific record, especially as Richard was not involved in two of the ‘missing years’, whilst securing two silver medals and a bronze on other occasions. The problem we have this time around is that Richard is not represented on this occasion either, alongside the fact that a non-runner has already reared its ugly head whereby a ‘win only race’ could be on the cards.  Accordingly I will offer three horses against the remaining pair, namely CARDSHARP, SHABAABY and DANCING STAR, though the trio is not listed in order of preference in a trappy contest.

Favourite factor: Ten of the seventeen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three successful market leaders), whilst the biggest priced winner to date was returned at 18/1 four years ago.  Nine winners during the last fourteen years scored at a top price of 9/2.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dancing Star (good to soft)

 

4.55: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests with vintage representative on offer at 3/7 before the form book is brought into the equation, with BLANCHEFLEUR, SILCA MISTRESS and GREAT SHOT SAM heading the seven representatives this time around according to the gospel of yours truly.  Peace be with you….

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which have produced three winners which were all returned at 13/8.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Vixen (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

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