Placepot Pointers – Friday 20th April

NEWBURY – APRIL 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 61.8% units went through – 10/3* - 7/1 – 5/1

Race 2: 77.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/4** - 5/1 – 11/4**

Race 3: 71.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 7/2

Race 4: 16.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 28/1 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 5: 55.5% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 7/4* - 14/1

Race 6: 29.6% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 4/1 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Dave Dexter), 9 (Well Done Fox) & 1 (Azor Ahai)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Qaysar), 11 (Tallow) & 8 (Rogue)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lah Ti Dah) & 1 (Arcadian Cat)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (A Monetofmadness), 2 (Just Glamorous) & 7 (Blue De Vega)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Jukebox Jive), 9 (Champagne Champ) & 6 (Injam)

Leg 6 (4.35): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 4 (Bombyx)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Ralph Beckett cannot do a great deal wrong at present (recent ratio of 6/16) though his first time out runners in the juvenile sector during the last five years offer a strike rate of just 11% via five winners.  That said, this does not appear to be the strongest of two-year-old contests by Newbury standards whereby Ralph’s Stimulation colt DAVE DEXTER is included in the Placepot mix.  The money (what there was of it overnight) was for WELL DONE FOX, whilst AZOR AHAI completes my trio against the remaining seven runners.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have prevailed during the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last eight gold medallists have been returned in single figures and at 10/1, the other winner during the ‘recent’ period could hardly have been classed as an extreme outsider.

 

2.25: With Richard Hannon having struck form of late and holding a decent chance in the opener with Well Done Fox, the trainer will be fancying his chances of extending the good run here, having declared both QAYSAR (dual winner from just three starts) and ROGUE who is the lone course winner in the line up.   The latter named raider looks a tad overpriced at 20/1 in a few places at the time of writing, albeit Richard’s Choisir colt QAYSAR deserves his place at the head of the market at the time of writing.  Arguably, I should not eliminate stable companion Oliver Reed from my list but I fancy the afore mentioned pair today.  TALLOW is the only horse from the current market front runners to have won on turf which is obviously a positive pointer towards the William Haggas raider.

Favourite factor: Four of the last seven winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, though those stats only include one successful market leader.  Indeed, the last two gold medallists scored at 25/1 and 14/1, whilst just four of the last eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions.

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Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/3—Rogue (good)

 

3.00: Markets like this can prove volatile and whispers emerge almost as soon as the gates open at a venue such as Newbury.  That said, there has to be some significance in the declaration of John Gosden’s Dubawi filly LAH TI DAH who is on offer at 33/1 for the Epsom Oaks as I pen this column.  John has enjoyed tremendous success at this meeting in recent years, yet Frankie’s mount is the only stable representative on the card this afternoon.  The experience already gained by ARCADIAN CAT could take Ralph Beckett’s Kittens Joy filly into the frame again.

Favourite factor: Although only two market leaders have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years, nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1 during the study period.  Six renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded, whilst only one of the last four jollies has reached the frame.

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and three of the five relevant entries today make appeal in one way or another, namely A MOMENTOFMADNESS, JUST GLAMOROUS and BLUE DE VEGA.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  That said, the each way 9/1 price of JUST GLAMOROUS is ‘winning the day’ as I consider a bet in this event aside from our favourite wager which covers the first six races on the card.  Most unusually, Ron Harris runs nine horses on the day, though only Just Glamorous has been directed towards Newbury, the other eight contenders all plying their trade at Bath this evening.  For the record, Ron has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: The last six winners have been returned at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include two winning favourites. That said, the other four recent market leaders all finished out with the washing.

 

4.05: Three each way types grab my attention in this event who are listed in order of preference as JUKEBOX JIVE, CHAMPAGNE CHAMP and INJAM.  Anthony Honeyball’s first named raider has the assistance of John Egan in the saddle and this underrated pilot can add another winner to his tally which has largely gone unnoticed down the years.  If you look through the record books, you will surprised just how many trainers use this jockey, resulting in really impressive strike rates for the said handlers of which Anthony is one.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals last year alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good to soft)

1/1—Keep In Line (soft)

 

4.40: John Gosden has won the last three renewals of this event and the fact that the trainer is not represented this time around has been received as a major blow.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that the connections of TIGRE DU TERRE and BOMBYX are the likeliest beneficiaries this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed via ten renewals during the last eleven years.  That said, the last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 19th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 19 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £33.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.4% units went through – 11/4* - 13/2 – 8/1

Race 2: 39.9% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & 11/4** (11/4**)

Race 3: 77.4% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 9/1

Race 4: 34.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 & 11/4 (9/4)

Race 5: 56.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 9/2 – 11/4**

Race 6: 59.4% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4* - 12/1 – 25/1

 

Thurday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Captain Jameson), 5 (Consequences) & 6 (Dragons Tail)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Karaginsky), 10 (Military Band) & 13 (Monoxide)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Le Brivido) & 9 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Masar) & 4 (Roaring Lion)

Leg 5 (4.10): 13 (Sheika Reika), 4 (Improve) & 10 (Playfull Spirit)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Nordic Lights), 3 (Argentello) & 5 (Bedouin’s Story)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: I offered a big shout for last year’s 11/4 winner and am quietly confident that CAPTAIN JAMESON can reward each way investors this time around.  Trainer John Quinn did us a 12/1 favour at the corresponding fixture last year and though softer ground would have offered an added bonus, Jason Hart’s mount is expected to give us a good run for our collective monies, albeit stakes are lowered (to a fashion) because of his ‘recent’ gelding operation.  Not all the boys react as positively as some having had the ‘snip’!  Course and distance winner CONSEQUENCES is named as the main threat alongside DRAGONS TAIL who represents Tom Dascombe’s in-form yard.  For the record, eight winners during the last decade carried a maximum burden of 8-13 and both CAPTAIN JAMESON and DRAGONS TAIL qualify via the recent weight trend.

Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions during the eleven years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

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1/1—Consequences (good to firm)

 

2.25: Godolphin has secured three of the last four renewals (and four of the last seven) of the ‘Wood Ditton’ and the two horses sporting the famous blue colours are both expected to go close here, namely KARAGINSKY and MILITARY BAND.  The pair is listed in marginal order of preference with both Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor having their horses in fine form at this moment in time.  That said, Charlie seemingly always has his runners in grand fettle – period!  Money for MONOXIDE would add interest to proceedings, especially as no trainer has saddled more winners that Martyn Meade on this final day of the Craven meeting during the last five years.  Martyn’s Epsom Derby entry might be put through his paces with more urgency than some I’ll wager, offering potential each way investors an interest at around the 16/1 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 24 favourites have secured Placepot positions (seven winners) during the 20 year study period.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won nine renewals during the last twenty years, whilst claiming 23 of the 58 available Placepot positions during the study period. The pair which dominated last year’s Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot could fill the forecast positions again here I guess, with LE BRIVIDO and SPIRIT OF VALOUR being the horses in question.  Aidan O’Brien saddled a welcome winner at Dundalk last night following nineteen consecutive losers, though I am not speaking ‘after the event’ you understand as I warned readers of Aidan’s form before racing commenced on Tuesday.  It’s not that Aidan’s runners are running deplorably you understand, they are simply not picking up to go on and win their races having been given every chance by their respective pilots.  For that reason, I’m adding SPIRIT OF VALOUR in the Placepot mix, albeit I expect Aidan’s War front colt to be held by the French representative again.  MAGICAL MEMORY won this race back in 2016 and it might be a tad too soon to write of his chance of winning another Group race just yet, whilst the second time of asking this season might not be a bad time to catch the six-year-old, especially with the Charlie Hills runners going well just now.  DREAM OF DREAMS would have entered the equation had the ground been as soft as it was earlier in the week.

Favourite factor: Four market leaders have prevailed (within the last thirteen years), whilst eleven of the twenty favourites have reached the frame during the (longer) study period.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

2/2—Brando (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to soft)

 

3.35: Few trainers ‘tilt at windmills’ better than Peter Chapple-Hyam and when I offer that remark, I’m talking about 50/1 chances as well as what some media types class as outsider simply because a horse wins in double figures!  That said, even Peter might be overstepping the mark with his course and distance winner Just Brilliant here, though I can rarely (if ever) totally write of his runners at outrageous prices.  This does look to be a tough ask however, with ROARING LION and (particularly) MASAR having been declared to run.  The problem we ‘Potters’ have when looking at trial races like this is just how much is a horse going to be ‘pushed’ out if its winning chance has gone?  I’m aware that this is a comment which could be made for any fancied horse though in the case of potential ‘champions’ in the making, the scenario is extended without a shadow of a doubt.  That said, MASAR is likely to be ridden all the way to the jamstick given that connections have little to lose by taking on the hot favourite ROARING LION.  In case you thought that John Gosden’s market leader was ‘home and hosed’ before going into the stalls, I feel obligated to suggest that this is his first outing on what might turn out to be good ground by the time that flag fall arrives this afternoon.  All three victories have been recorded on ‘good to soft’, whilst his all-weather victory was on the slow side of standard at Kempton.  Food for thought?

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 market leaders have snared Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

Record of the course winners in the Craven Stakes:

1/1—Just Brilliant (good)

1/1—Roaring Lion (good to soft)

 

4.10: The dogs are barking harmoniously regarding the chance of SHEIKHA REIKA who represents Roger Varian who won with one of his four runners on the heath yesterday afternoon.  Money for the William Haggas newcomer IMPROVE would add much required interest to proceedings, whilst my trio against the remaining eleven contenders is completed by PLAYFULL SPIRIT.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.45: I guess it’s easy to suggest (this side of midnight) that the lads and lasses in the trade press office have a got a price seriously wrong in terms of the betting guide, though the 12/1 quoted for Saaed Bin Suroor’s BEDOUIN’S STORY was right out of the top draw of JK Rowling’s fictional bedtime reading material.  We might be lucky to secure half of those odds I’ll wager, albeit NORDIC LIGHTS and ARGENTELLO might still take the beating from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new ‘novice’ event with which to close out our favourite wager.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 18th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £328.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 44.7% units went through – 9/2 – 7/2* - 8/1

Race 2: 33.5% of the remaining units when through – 10/3 & 8/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 39.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 5/2*

Race 4: 18.0% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 14/1 – 6/1 (7/2)

Race 5: 66.1% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 8/1 – 10/1

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 4/1* - 16/1

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 15 (Mont Kiara), 1 (Ekhtiyaar) & 7 (Danielsflyer)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Nebo), 4 (Rufus King) & 6 (Finneston Farm)

Leg 3 (3.00): 7 (Frankuus), 5 (Euginio) & 6 (Forest Ranger)

Leg 4 (3.35): 8 (Nawaasi), 1 (Altyn Order) & 10 (Soliloquy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (Strings Of Life) & 4 (Hard Forest)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Award Winning) & 8 (Rococo)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Record of the winning trainers at Newmarket this season after yesterday's opening meeting:

1/1--Karl Burke - No more runners here this week

1/1--Stuart Williams - 2 runners at Newmarket today

1/2--Tom Dascombe - 1 runner

1/3--Charlie Appleby - 5 runners

1/3--Charlie Hills - 6 runners

1/3--Mark Johnston 5 runners

1/4--John Gosden - 5 runners

1/5--Kevin Ryan - 2 runners

 

1.50:  MONT KIARA finished third in this event last year and off a three pound lower mark today, the five-year-old could represent in form trainer Kevin Ryan to each way/Placepot effect. Available at 20/1 in a place in the dead of night, those odds have long since disappeared which makes for interesting reading.  Connections will not want the ground to dry up too much this morning relating to the chance of EKHTIYAAR who as a winner of three of his seven races to date, deserves his position at the top of the handicap.  The fact that there will (inevitably) be some moisture not too deep in the ground will play to his strengths, whilst DANIELSFLYER completes my trio against the remaining twelve runners, now that a withdrawal has robbed punters of a fourth place opportunity, from a Placepot perspective at least depending how generous your bookmaker is feeling this morning.  With every favourite beaten on yesterday’s opening card, the layers should still offer a fourth place from my viewpoint, providing at least 14 runners face the starter.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite could only finish tenth in a twelve strong field before last year’s silver medallist at least claimed a Placepot position at 7/2 on behalf of favourite backers.

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Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Ekhtiyaar (good to soft)

2/4—Eastern Impact (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Danielsflyer (good to firm)

 

2.25: The European Free Handicap always brings to mind the excellence of Pat Eddery who won this race five times during the course of an eight year period for five different trainers between 1989 and 1996! Pat equalled Lester Piggott’s haul of eleven championship titles, having won this race eight times during his career. Upwards and onward to the present, reporting that the only course winner in the line up RUFUS KING could be worth an each way play at around the 9/1 mark this morning, with Mark Johnston already having had a winner at the meeting.  More logical winners (arguably) include NEBO and FINNISTON FARM who represent the in-form yards of Charlie Hills and Tom Dascombe respectively.

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 of the last 20 market leaders have snared toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.  All 19 winners during the study period were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have claimed seventeen of the last thirty renewals, whilst securing over half (26/51) of the latest available toteplacepot positions. FRANKUUS (winner of two of four races with ‘soft’ featuring in the going description to date) makes most appeal from the relevant three entries, though both FOREST RANGER and EUGINIO demand plenty of respect in what is considered a fairly ordinary Group 3 event from my viewpoint.  If the vintage trend is to be put off track this time around, ROBIN OF NAVAN could be the potential joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 16 of the 22 market leaders have reached the frame (four winners) during the study period in the ‘Earl Of Sefton’ event.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/13—Master The World

 

3.35: John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have saddled three or more winners of this event during the last fourteen years (looking for this fifth ‘recent’ winner this time around) and John makes a habit of saddling consistent winners at this time of the season year on year. With a winner already secured at the meeting, stable representative NAWAASI makes plenty of each way appeal at 9/1 (thereabouts) this afternoon.  Roger Varian has some good chances on the card and ALTYN ORDER is certainly considered as a main player here, arguably alongside SOLILOQUY.  My reservations about the Aidan O’Brien runners were justified twenty four hours ago besides which, connections of his raider Dramatically might have wished for the sunshine to have stayed away for a few more days.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won this (Nell Gwyn) trial for the 1,000 Guineas in recent times, whilst twelve market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the nineteen year study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Nell Gwyn’:

1/2—Altyn Order (good)

1/1—Nawaasi (good to soft)

 

4.10'Team Hannon' have secured three of the last eight renewals, though stable contender Ginger Nut might finds a few of these too hot to handle at the first time of asking.  Red Hut Red is one of those to consider, though preference is for Charlie Appleby’s newcomer STRINGS OF LIFE alongside HARD FOREST who could put her brief experience to good use I guess.  STRINGS OF LIFE remains the call however, with Charlie having established such a good record in this type of event in recent years.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty one years, whilst twelve market leaders snared Placepot positions.  The biggest priced winner during the previous fourteen years was an 11/1 chance (2011) before the 33/1 gold medallist prevailed two years ago.

 

4.45: Although Qazyna and Ripley are fully expected to win races as three-year-old, I have to remain loyal to John Gosden who has won both races to date.  John’s two entries go straight onto the team sheet accordingly with just two places available via my permutation, namely AWARD WINNING and ROCOCO.  I marginally prefer the pair as listed, mainly because AWARD WINNING also held an entry in a race at Newbury at the weekend, yet John is letting his Dubawi filly take her chance here despite having had Rococo already pencilled in for the contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared gold and silver medals ion this event thus far.

 

Record of the course winner in the eighth (non Placepot) race at 5.55:

1/1—Old Persian (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 17th April

NEWMARKET – APRIL 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £17.80 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 36.5% units went through – 13/2 – 9/1 – 11/2 (7/4)

Race 2: 65.9% of the remaining units when through – 7/2* - 9/2 – 5/1

Race 3: 52.2% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 & 5/4*

Race 4: 59.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 12/1 – 10/3*

Race 5: 61.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 5/2*

Race 6: 89.2% of the units secured the dividend – 15/2 – 7/4** - 7/4**

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Elhafei) & 2 (Aurum)

Leg 2 (2.25): 8 (Jaawaal), 11 (Porth Swtan) & 7 (History Writer)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Jackstar), 7 (Van Beethoven) & 8 (Ynys Mon)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Symbolization) & 1 (Purser)

Leg 5 (4.10): 10 (Frank Bidge), 6 (Plutonian), 7 (Almoreb) & 1 (Fire Brigade)

Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Msayyan) & 2 (Kew Gardens)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: John Gosden has saddled the last three renewals of this event when represented whereby the chance for ELHAFEI is there for all to see, especially for people like yours truly who are besotted by statistics!  John has saddled five winners at this meeting during the last two years and there is every chance that the trend could be extended at the first time of asking in 2018.  That said, Charlie Appleby has declared his late May foal AURUM (Exceed And Excel colt) and with Charlie currently boasting ‘recent’ stats of 15/31, William Buick’s mount has to be taken seriously.  Giving racecourse experience away plus an additional two months in age might prove be a tough ask however, despite the confidence on the exchanges in the dead of night.  If you want to take on the likely market leaders, Robsdelight looks to be an above average type from the Gay Kelleway yard.  Ibraz is a likely improver following a half decent debut effort on the other side of the heath at Newmarket last July.

Favourite factor: Five of the twenty favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders finished in the frame.  That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2.  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

2.25: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, the ‘Alex Scott’ event for three-year-olds. PORTH SWTAN is well exposed compared to every other runner in the contest though with the Charlie Hills yard in fine form at present, that experience is offered as a positive factor rather than a negative one.  That said, John Gosden (see stats in the opening event) saddles JAAWAAL with obvious claims, whilst David Menuisier’s Canford Cliffs colt HISTORY WRITER ran well in a warm race at Sandown last year.  Global Art was weak in the market at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five of the twenty favourites have won via the last seventeen renewals, whilst fourteen market leaders finished in the frame.  That said, the shortest priced favourite finished unplaced at odds of 1/2.  Thirteen of the last sixteen winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less

 

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3.00: I Am A Dreamer is as weak as a kitten on the exchanges overnight and yet punters have not been readily queuing up to hammer into Aidan O’Brien’s Scat Daddy newcomer VAN BEETHOVEN at the time of writing.  I’m wondering if the fact that Aidan’s last twelve runners have been beaten has anything to do with that scenario, given that four favourites were included in those recent results, notwithstanding that all twelve started at a top price of 5/1.  Either way, YNYS MON and JACKSATE enter my Placepot equation as value for money types as I investigate the ‘exchanges’ later this morning.

Favourite factor: Both renewals have been won by (7/2 & 4/9) market leaders thus far.

 

3.35: Kevin Ryan has already saddled three turf winner this term (from eight runners) whereby plenty of respect is offered to inmate Stormbringer who was ‘only’ a 16/1 chance in the ‘Gimcrack’ last year following a facile victory at Redcar at the second time of asking.  This looks a tough heat however with both SYMBOLIZATION and PURSER having been declared by the powerful respective yards of Charlie Appleby and John Gosden who have been saddling winners for fun of late.  I’m not going to choose between the pair this time around as much might have been left to work on by one or t’other for later in the season.  Suffice to say that even if that were true, both horses could be a cut above this opposition.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.

 

4.10: Six time winner FRANK BRIDGE is three from four on good to soft ground and with Eve Johnson Houghton among the winners of late, Charles Bishop’s mount is the each way call in the contest, hoping that trap four does not count against the five-year-old.  PLUTONIAN, ALMORAB and FIRE BRIGADE are added into the Placepot mix though coming from a top stall number of seven between them, I’m hoping that the ground is fair on both sides of the course.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite secured the bronze medal alongside a Placepot position.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Fire Brigade (soft)

1/3—Red Tea (good)

1/4—Secret Art (good to soft)

 

4.45: Eleven of the last twelve winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 and I expect the trend to be extended by the likes of MSAYYAN and KEW GARDENS this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference given the slight worry of the O’Brien horses at this early stage of the season as outlined in a race earlier on the card. That and the fact that John Gosden (MSAYYAN) has saddled two of the last three winners of this Listed event.  If the trend of shorter priced winning horses is broken this time around, Dark Acclaim could prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the twenty one favourites have secured Placepot positions in the last eighteen years, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Kew Gardens (good)

 

 

Record of the two course winners in the 7th (on Placepot) race on the card:

2/7—Accession (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Medeival (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Poimters – Monday 16th April

WINDSOR – APRIL 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £88.00 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 35.0% units went through – 5/1 – 5/1 – 9/1 (85/40)

Race 2: 35.8% of the remaining units when through – 12/1 – 5/2 – 11/2 (2/1)

Race 3: 44.5% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 8/1- 16/1 – 7/1 (9/2)

Race 4: 66.7% of the remaining units went through – Evens* & 7/1

Race 5: 51.4% of the remaining units went through – 17/2 – 8/1 – 4/1 (15/8)

Race 6: 43.3% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2* - 10/1 – 16/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 4 (Give Em A Clump), 5 (Mother Of Dragons) & 1 (Maygold)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Artair), 3 (Blown By Wind) & 7 (Solesmes)

Leg 3 (3.20): 7 (Sevenna Star) & 1 (King’s Proctor)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Fast And Hot), 5 (Menchego) & 6 (Essenaitch)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Blaine), 2 (Mobsta) & 11 (Poet’s Princess)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Icart Point) & 9 (Polly’s Gold)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: GIVE EM A CLUMP (ran in the next race on the card last year) undertakes his first assignment since having endured a gelding operation and coupled with the fact that he boasts a 1/1 record on heavy ground thus far, I’m offering the David Evans raider the tentative vote in the first race on the card, hoping that the meeting passes its 7.00 am inspection.  MOTHER OF DRAGONS has run well on soft ground in much better company than she competes against here, whist MAYGOLD completes my trio against the field in this ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out of the frame in the last (non Placepot) race on the card.

 

2.50: Whatever jungle drums are beating this morning appear to be coming from the ARTAIR reservation and the Racing Post comment about Michael Bell’s Kodiac colt also holding an engagement at Newmarket this week was an accurate one until the final declarations for Tuesday were confirmed.  BLOWN BY WIND has also attracted some realistic money in the positive exchange queue overnight whilst SOLESMES hails from Mick Channon’s yard who leads the way relating to juvenile runners on turf this season (2/2) thanks to his talented ‘Brocklesby’ winner Izzer.

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Favourite factor: The inaugural 15/8 favourite found one rival a short head too good for him in a short field event.  Last year’s 85/40 market leader is still being sought by detective having failed to figure in the finish. New readers might like to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify.

 

3.20: John Gosden was going well enough of late without posting a 25/1 winner at Lingfield on Saturday which I included in my trainers list to follow, though most eyes were fixed on Aintree of course.  John saddles SEVENNA STAR with an obvious chance, though stakes should be kept on the low side if the meeting takes place.  My (negative) worry about the meeting is that Windsor have endured all kinds of problems in recent years with horses losing their balance around the turns, whereby the Windsor officials might run scared of offering the meeting the green light – we shall see.  KING’S PROCTOR has to give the selection seven pounds which might prove to be a tough ask, especially as his Nottingham success (impressive though it was) was gained on good ground.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card

 

3.50: The bottom trio in the weights might struggle to win, given that the five gold medallists thus far have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, stats which rule out the current 7/4 favourite (Bombero) if you follow such trends.  Accordingly, I would rather side with value for money types like FAST AND HOT (Richard Hannon’s only runner on the card which is unusual at Windsor to say the least), fellow course winner ESSENAITCH and MANCHEGO, who has been the subject of a little support overnight.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won two of the five renewals to date at 7/2 & 15/8, it’s worth noting that the other three market leaders all finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth race on the card:

2/6—Fast And Hot (good & good to soft)

2/11—Essenaitch (good and good to soft)

 

4.20: There is no doubting that MOBSTA was unlucky at Doncaster the last day but for bookmakers to chalk up Mick Channon’s raider at 5/4 is overstating the case from my viewpoint.  Yes, I have to include the jolly in the Placepot mix, though each way types such as BLAINE (surely a tad too big at 22/1 in a place) and POET’S PRINCESS offer better value for money, especially on this type of ground.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Windsor programme.

 

4.50: ICART POINT represents Clive Cox who was the leading trainer at this venue last year in the early part of the season, with the Poet’s voice gelding being the trainer’s only runner on the card today.  Clive saddled a winner at Kempton on Friday to offer more confidence in the selection. POLLY’S GOLD is rated as the main threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 3/1**) market leaders.

 

Record of the four course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card:

1/3—Ziatan (soft)

1/4—Helfire (good to firm)

1/10—Harlequon Striker (soft)

1/2—East Coast Lady (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 15th April

PLUMPTON – APRIL 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £388.50 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 98.3% units went through – 13/8 & 8/13*

Race 2: 49.6% of the remaining units when through – 11/10* (Win only event)

Race 3: 15.7% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 11/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 4: 63.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 5/2

Race 5: 24.3% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 12/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 15.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 & 14/1 (4/5)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 3 (Dancing Doug) & 5 (Six Gun Serenade)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Mr Jim), 9 (Micquus) & 3 (Little Jimmy)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Midnight Maestro), 4 (Wolfcatcher) & 3 (Ballygown Bay)

Leg 4 (3.55): 5 (Cap Horner) & 3 (Indian Castle)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Indian Reel), 8 (King Charlie) & 4 (Howlongisafoot)

Leg 6 (5.00): 1 (Mr Muddle), 6 (Brother Bennett) & 5 (Yourholidayisover)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Sam Thomas has taken some to time to reach double figures as a trainer (6% strike rate) but as eight of his ten winners have been gained in hurdle events, inmate DANCING DOUG has a second to none chance here from a Placepot perspective, given that I wouldn’t have a bet in the contest using your money.  There has been some support (brave souls) for SIX GUN SERENADE overnight which suggests that Suzi Smith’s raider can emerge as the main threat to the tentative selection.

Favourite factor: The last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners of their respective events.

 

2.50: MR JIM is asked to repeat last year’s success under much slower conditions, though Tony Carroll’s raider cannot be ignored given the great from of the yard.  Tony had produced 36 points of level stake profit via his current 5/7 ratio!  MR JIM is Tony’s only runner on the day with his next inmate possibly taking up an assignment at Newmarket on the level on Tuesday.  Emma Lavelle is a shrewd cookie and she has placed her new inmate MicQUUS to clever effect in this grade/company, whilst LITTLE JIMMY is consistent from a Placepot perspective around the ‘gaff tracks’.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader was one of two horses which failed to complete the course in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

1/7—Gores Island (good)

1/1—Mr Jim (good to firm) – won this race last year

1/6—Remember Forever (good to firm)

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3.20: Alan King was out of luck with his seven runners at Aintree though with four of them having reached the frame at 33/1, 25/1, 14/1 and 13/2, it cannot be said that the yard is comprehensively out of form.  That statement bodes well for the chance of MIDNIGHT MAESTRO here, if only from a Placepot viewpoint.  Others to consider include WOLFCATCHER and BALLYGOWN BAY in a half decent event by Plumpton standards. MIDNIGHT MAESTRO and WOLFCATCHER hail from the six-year-old vintage which has won four of the eight renewals of this race to date. Out of interest, you might also care to consider the merits of Gary Moore’s pair of outsiders (Searching and Justification) as the trainer has snared three of the last five renewals of this contest.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this contest (eight renewals), with the last six market leaders all finishing out of the frame, stats which include two pairs of joint jollies.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/1—Paddys Runner (good)

1/1—The Premier Celtic (good)

 

3.55: Seamus Mullis is only four short of winning 100 races at the ‘sister’ tracks of Plumpton and Fontwell in 27 years of training and gold medallist number 46 at Plumpton could be in the offing here with the trainer having offered the green light to his recent soft ground Taunton winner CAP HORNER.  Some old south coast favourites line up in opposition however, the pick of them on this occasion possibly being INDIAN CASTLE who represents the relentless Ian Williams yard which offers so many good chances to inmates under both codes, such is the talent of the trainer in my considered opinion.  INDIAN CASTLE attempts to become with fourth ten-year-old winner of this race in the last five years.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight favourites have snared Placepot positions, statistics which includes four winners in recent years.

Record of the five course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Leo Luna (soft)

1/2—Holbrook Park (soft)

1/4—No Buts (heavy)

2/15—Invicta Lake (good & good to soft)

3/14—Frank N Fair (good – good to soft – good)

 

4.30: Another trappy contest following the previous potential ‘dead eight’ event on the programme, with arguably INDIAN REEL, KING CHARLIE and HOWLONGISAFOOT standing out from the crowd.  The latter named Chris Gordon raider enters my ‘last chance saloon’, whilst Fergal O’Brien appears to have found a good opportunity for INDIAN REEL to go close.  That leaves KING CHARLIE to consider, especially with Suzy Smith (the Suzy with a ‘y’) having saddled two of her last five runners to winning effect, despite yesterday’s hike to Aintree having proved to be a fruitless journey.

Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, though five years have slipped by since the last of the two winning favourites prevailed.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event:

1/4—Howlongisafoot (good)

1/5—Yukon Delta (good)

 

5.00: MR MUDDLE saves his best work for this venue given his three course victories on all types of surfaces, notwithstanding his five runner up efforts from just ten races at Plumpton down the years.  BROTHER BENNETT and YOURHOLIDAYISOVER represent some each way appeal at around the 15/2 mark this morning in the dead of night.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (15/8) market leader duly obliged.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/10—Mr Muddle (good to firm – good – soft)

1/2—Yourholidayisover (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 14th April

AINTREE – APRIL 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*

Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2

Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)

Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*

Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*

*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.

*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN.  Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came.  Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)

1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)

1/3—Sykes (good)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday.  That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating.  Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).

Record of the course winner in the second race:

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1/1—On The Blind Side (good)

 

3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday.  Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.

 

3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests.   All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground.  More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/2—On Tour (soft)

 

4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now.  The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.

Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good)

 

5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with.  Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests.  Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests.  Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years.  26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date:  The record of horses ridden by female jockeys:  one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1.  In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones.  This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them.  The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around.  For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form.  Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle.  BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories.  TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage.  The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings.  The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race.  The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on.  I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective.  The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground.  On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.

Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:

1/4—Blaklion (heavy)

1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)

1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:

1/1—Chesterfield (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 13th April

AINTREE – APRIL 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £205.80 (10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 47.8% units went through – 10/1 – 8/1*** - 12/1 – 8/1*** (8/1***)

Race 2: 42.5% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 – 9/4** - 7/1 (9/4**)

Race 3: 94.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/13* & 9/2

Race 4: 61.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 10/3* - 14/1

Race 5: 6.3% of the remaining units went through – 50/1 – 22/1 – 66/1 – 12/1 (2 x 8/1**)

Race 6: 47.7% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1 – 9/1 – 11/1 (11/4)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 9 (Lough Derg Spirit) & 6 (Storm Home)

Leg 2 (2.20): 10 (Scarlet Dragon), 4 (Global Citizen) & 13 (Vision Des Flos)

Leg 3 (2.50): 7 (Terrefort), 10 (Ms Parfois) & 1 (Black Corton)

Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Balko Des Flos) & 4 (Min)

Leg 5 (4.05): 22 (Theatre Terriroty), 15 (Ballyalton), 3 (Top Gamble) & 11 (Ultragold)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Santini) & 2 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals, with vintage representatives having secured the first three places last year via just 36% of the total number of runners, a result which brought about my 10/1 winner and 92/1 forecast via a trio of nominations.  This year’s short list comprises of WHO DARES WINS, LOUGH DERG SPIRIT and STORM HOME, with the trio listed in marginal preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 winners were sent off at odds ranging between 10/1 and 50/1 with successful favourites only conspicuous by their absence.  The previous nine favourites had finished out with the washing before the 15/2 market leader secured the bronze medal in 2013.  The race reverted to type in 2014 when the 4/1 market leader finished back in 14th place when 19 completed the course.  Four of the subsequent seven favourites (via three renewals) secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the opening contest:

1/4—Court Minstrel (good to soft)

1/3—Massini’s Trap (good)

1/2—Cornborough (good to soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have a fantastic record in this race (the vintage have claimed 19 of the last 33 renewals--representatives finished 1-2-3-4 eight years ago and 1-2-3-4-5 in 2010 + the forecast positions six years back.  Vintage representatives filled the first seven positions two years ago, albeit via 82% of the total number of runners. To make the figures stand out further still, it should be noted that vintage representatives in 2013 were conspicuous only by their absence. Last year’s three big outsiders (on behalf of the vintage) failed to have a say in the finish, though the likes of SCARLET DRAGON and VISION DES FLOS look sure to go close this afternoon.  That said, Ben Pauling’s hat trick seeker GLOBAL CITIZEN is a live threat and no mistake.

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Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this event via the last 18 renewals, with eight of the last ten market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Lalor (good)

 

2.50: Seven-year-olds have won nine of the last twenty renewals of this event, yet vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago when Might Bite took the honours. Nicky Henderson (Might Bite last year) has saddled no less than fourteen winners on the corresponding day of the meeting during the last seven years! The Seven Barrows based trainer has offered the green light to TERREFORT this time around with a favourite’s chance, though the chances of seven-year-old raiders MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON are (predictably) respected.  There are worse outsiders on the card than soft ground course winner Captain Chaos at around the 28/1 mark, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Going back a long time, 15 of the last 28 renewals (53.6%) have been won by market leaders, whilst 27 of those gold medallists were returned in single figures.  Eight of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Captain Chaos (soft)

 

3.25: The last twelve winners have been aged between seven and nine and the trend looks like being extended on this occasion as only a 33/1 chance in the field is offered the chance of breaking the trend. For those who keep records, this stat is still worth its weight in gold because with just two qualifiers two years ago, 10/1 winner God’s Own scored even though the 1/5 market leader (Vatour) fell when going well when trying to extend the ratio.  Willie Mullins has been going through something of a quiet time by his high standards and there is every chance that his representative MIN could get turned over by BALKO DES FLOS despite being made favourite for the contest.  Henry De Bromhead’s ‘Ryanair’ winner was oh so impressive at Cheltenham last month and with MIN stepping up in trip here, I would rather stay with the horse that is proven over the distance, despite the fact that Davy Russell’s mount is dropping back a quarter of a mile after his Prestbury Park success.

Favourite factor: The first successful winning favourite of this event was Remittance Man for Nicky Henderson at odds of 4/9 back in 1992.  A further ten market leaders have won, whilst nine of the fifteen market leaders during the last thirteen years have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Sizing Granite

 

4.05: 14 of the last 17 winners of this event (run over the Grand National fences) have carried weights of 10-12 or less, whilst eleven of the last fifteen winners scored at 50/1-50/1-33/1-25/1-22/1-22/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-11/1-10/1.  Nine and ten-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen renewals whilst securing 35 of the 64 (55%) available Placepot positions between them.  Only two Irish trained winners have emerged in the last 38 years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight ‘short list’ of THEATRE TERRITORY, BALLYALTON, TOP GAMBLE and last year’s winner ULTRAGOLD. If there is a horse is the field capable of defying the weight stat (aside from Ultragold and Top Gamble) it could be O O SEVEN who ran well to finish fourth in the race last year, especially when digesting the fact that Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last five winners.

Favourite factor: Just one (joint) favourite has won the ‘Topham’ via the last nineteen contests.  Only four of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have claimed Placepot positions.

Aintree record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Ultragold (good)

2/6—Eastlake (good soft)

1/5—Highland Lodge (soft)

 

4.40: Six-year-olds hold the call in the toteplacepot finale (winners of seven of the last ten contests) as vintage representatives secured the first four places eight years back and silver and bronze medals six years ago.   Throw the 2013 1-2-3-4 result and a 1-2-3 (two years ago – 1-3-4 last year) via vintage representatives and you can probably guess why my overnight duo against the other twelve contenders consists of SANTINI and XCHEF DES OBEAUX.  Both horses are trained by Nicky Henderson who also saddles the main threat, namely OK CORRAL.

Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since a favourite prevailed before the 2013 market leader fought back on behalf of punters.  The last four favourites have been beaten, whilst eight of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) in as many years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 12th April

AINTREE – APRIL 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £159.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 30.3% units went through – 5/1 & 4/1 (6/5)

Race 2: 91.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/11* - 7/2 – 25/1

Race 3: 35.7% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 & 2/1*

Race 4: 30.2% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 8/1

Race 5: 13.6% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 7/1 – 40/1 (7/4)

Race 6: 41.3% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 15/2 – 6/1*

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Aintree: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 1 (Brain Power) & 3 (Cyrname)

Leg 2 (2.20): 7 (We Have A Dream) & 1 (Apples Shakira)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Might Bite), 8 (Tea For Two) & 2 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Leg 4 (3.25): 3 (Cyrus Darius) & 9 (The New One)

Leg 5 (4.05): 14 (On The Fringe), 1 (Bainsalow), 9 (Grand Vision) & 20 (Wells De Lune)

Leg 6 (4.40): 8 (Kings Socks), 9 (Bun Doran), 10 (Doitforthevillage) & 13 (Baby King)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nicky Henderson is the only represented trainer to have won this race twice over thus far, with the Seven Barrows stable represented by BRAIN POWER on this occasion.  Always wishing to impart with the truth however, Nicky’s 6/5 favourite in the race last year (Top Notch) missed out on a Placepot position.  Paul Nicholls has dominated the first day of the meeting during the last seven years (though no gold medallists in each of the last two years), with Paul having saddled eight winners during the period.  Paul has declared CYRNAME with definite claims, though Colin Tizzard has done his best to stop the ‘warmongers’ making this a two horse event by offering the green light to FINIAN’S OSCAR.

Favourite factor: The only successful favourite (via nine renewals) scored in 2013 at odds of 6/5, whilst five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far. All nine winners have scored at a top price of 11/2 to date.

Aintree record of course winners in the opening contest:

1/1—Finian’s Oscar (good)

 

2.20: Nicky Henderson's disappointing first day results in recent years were highlighted in this race three years ago when Nicky saddled the well beaten (4/6) market leader.  Nicky saddled a 4/9 winner twelve months ago and the trainer plays a really strong hand here, having declared both WE HAVE A DREAM and APPLES SHAKIRA.  Nicky’s latter named raider suddenly found himself outpaced having travelled well for a long way in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham last month and it remains to be seen if the addition of a hood will bring about a return to winning form.  Accordingly, I have to lean towards WE HAVE A DREAM, particularly as Nicky swerved the trials and tribulations of Cheltenham, making his gelding a fresher horse in his attempt at landing a nap hand (five successive wins), albeit at the highest level.  If there is a ‘dark horse’ to be aware of in the field, the French raider BEAU GOSSE looks the type to potentially fit the bill.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen contests, with eleven market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions.  Ten winners during the last thirteen years were returned at 13/2 or less.

 

2.50: It remains to be seen if MIGHT BITE had had enough time to recover from his exploits in the Cheltenham Gold Cup which was the thick end of a month ago.  How time flies when the rain pours leading to abandoned meetings!  Thankfully, we have reasonable ground in Liverpool for the Grand National Festival which should ensure that Nicky Henderson’s beaten favourite has, at least, a chance of gaining compensation.  That said, the more I look at the Cheltenham race, the conclusion occurs that the third horse would have beaten Might Bite in another 100 yards whereby an odds on price looks to skinny to take from my viewpoint.  I appreciate his chance from a Placepot perspective however, though last year’s winner TEA FOR TWO and CLAN DES OBEAUX both offer some each way value at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Just three favourites have prevailed during the last sixteen years though that said, thirteen winners were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.  Four of the last nine favourites have finished out of the frame.

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Aintree record of course winners in the third race:

1/2—Definitly Red (heavy)

1/1—Might Bite (good)

1/2—Sizing Codelco (good)

1/2—Tea For Two (2 x good)

 

3.25: SUPASUNDAE ran well enough when outpointed in the ‘Stayers’ at Prestbury Park last month but at even money (thereabouts), Jessica Harrington’s raider is easily opposed.  You can readily ignore the 20/1 trade press price about CYRUS DARIUS who could be backed into half of those odds if the current momentum is maintained later this morning.  THE NEW ONE won this event four years ago and looks primed to go close at a track which suits the Twiston-Davies representative.  My Tent Or Yours is another who will run his usual game race, likely as not.

Favourite factor: Only six favourites have won during the last 22 years, though 12 of the last 21 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fourth even on the card:

1/1—Cyrus Darius (good to soft)

1/4—My Tent Or Yours (good to soft)

2/5—The New One (2 x good)

 

4.05: Luck in running is an obvious pre-requisite in this event but that said, favourites have a half decent record looking back over the last 24 years (see stats below).  13 of the last 15 winners have been aged in double figures, whereby my ‘short list’ consists of dual winner ON THE FRINGE (beaten at 7/4 in the race twelve months ago), BAINSALOW and GRAND VISION.  If you are in need of a big priced winner after four luckless events, WELLS DE LUNE could give you a decent run for your money at around the 14/1 mark.

Favourite factor: Eleven favourites have won this event during the last 26 years during which time, 22 gold medallists have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less.  Indeed, in a race which invariably looks difficult on paper, it's worth noting that five of the last seven winners have been returned at a top price of 4/1. That said, only five of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Aintree record of course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—On The Fringe (good to soft & soft)

 

4.40: Eleven of the last twelve (and 14 of the last 16) winners carried a maximum weight of 11-1, whereby KINGS SOCKS, BUN DORAN and DOITFORTHEVILLAGE form my overnight short list.   The reserve nomination is awarded to BABY KING, a stable companion of last year’s beaten (placed) favourite BUN DORAN.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders have prevailed via the last sixteen contests, whilst 11 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.  That said, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-20/1-16/1.

Aintree record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Theinval (good to soft)

1/1—The Flying Portrait (good)

1/1—Baby King (soft)

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race on the card at 5.15:

1/1—Posh Trish (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 11th April

MARKET RASEN – APRIL 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £539.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 57.5% units went through – 4/6* & 150/1

Race 2: 46.4% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 5/4*

Race 3: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (7/2)

Race 4: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)

Race 5: 23.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 (Win only – 5/4* unplaced)

Race 6: 9.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4 (Win only – 9/4 fav unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Mont Des Avalois) & 2 (The King Of May)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Ataguiseamix), 6 (The Bottom Bar) & 4 (Midnight Chill)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Zen Master) & 6 (Chandos Belle)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Red Devil Star), 3 (Roxyfet), 2 (Ballycamp) & 4 (Chateau Chinon)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Monbeg Charmer), 3 (Beggars Wishes) & 5 (Minella Scamp)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Lip Service) & 3 (Cyclops)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: MONT DES AVALOIS should continue the good run of favourites in this event, chiefly at the expense of THE KING OF MAY who was only sent off as a 12/1 chance in the ‘Fred Winter’ at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks ago.  Similarly, Mon Eldorado appears to have plenty in hand of the other runner in this win only contest.  There were three win only races on last year’s Placepot card which helped to produce a good dividend.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/2.

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals of this event and ATAGUISEAMIX has a chance of extending the good run on behalf of vintage representatives, especially with Paul Nicholls having scored with ten of his last 25 runners.  Recent rulings now inform us that Paul’s gelding has had a wind operation whereby his win and place chance in this grade/company cannot be questioned.  Others in the mix include THE BOTTOM BAR and MIDNIGHT CHILL.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.

 

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3.05: Money has surfaced overnight for ZEN MASTER (trainer Charlie Mann saddled the winner three years ago) and along with CHANDOS BELLE, the six-year-old can dominate this field at the business end of proceedings.  MR SNOOZY would be the alternative each way call if pressed, though at least one of the two ‘selections’ should finish in the frame without too much fuss.

Favourite factor: Only one joint favourite has won this event since 2010, with two of the last four winners having prevailed at 18/1 & 10/1.

Record of the three course winners in the field:

2/7—Mr Snoozy (2 x good to soft)

1/1—Zen Master (good)

1/7—Towering (soft)

 

3.35: RED DEVIL STAR strikes me as the likeliest winner of this event, though you only have to look at last year’s results in the three win only contests on the card to deduce that these races can bring about great Placepot rewards.  Accordingly, I will add all four runners into the mix before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  By all means add another bet into the mix using RED DEVIL STAR as a banker in the contest, which would offer you a better return if the rest of the races go to plan.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and bronze medals in win only events.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/3—Roxyfet (soft)

 

4.10: I’m shaking with fear in trepidation of a non-runner evolving, potentially turning this into another nightmarish win only contest!  The pin has fallen on the trio of MONBEG CHARMER, BEGGARS WISHES and MINELLA SCAMP to get us through the crocodile infested waters at the Lincolnshire venue this afternoon.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals, though the second placed jolly failed to claim a Placepot position in a win only contest.

 

4.40: Never wishing to pay LIP SERVICE to a Placepot finale, but Fergal O’Brien’s raider (alongside CYCLOPS) should bring the bacon home for us again today.

Favourite factor: The same stats are in place in successive races on the card as the two jollies have finished first and second in this race too, with the silver medallist losing out on a Placepot position via a win only event.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Cyclop (soft)

1/9—Milly Baloo (soft)

 

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

1/1—Myplaceatmidnight (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 10th April

SOUTHWELL (NH) – APRIL 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £19.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.0% units went through – 6/1 – 2/1* - 11/2

Race 2: 45.8% of the remaining units when through – 10/3* & 5/1

Race 3: 93.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 12/1 – 7/1

Race 4: 37.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 10/3 (3/1)

Race 5: 73.6% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* - 50/1 – 7/2

Race 6: 53.4% of the units secured the dividend – 12/1 – 16/1 – 3/1 (5/2)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Southwell (NH): 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Mondo Cane), 4 (Ulis De Vassy) & 1 (Beni Light)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Achille) & 3 (Riddlestown)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Casa Tall) & 2 (Whoshotwho)

Leg 4 (3.35): 3 (Sandhurst Lad), 4 (Western Wave) & 1 (Shinooki)

Leg 5 (4.05): 3 (Pineapple Rush), 4 (With Discretion) & 2 (Phoeniciana)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Cosmic King) & 6 (Tickanrun)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: More Placepot success yesterday, albeit we ‘only’ claimed one fifth of the £190.50 Ludlow dividend. Although MONDO CANE has only win via 12 assignments at the track to date, it’s worth noting that the eleven-year-old has finished ‘in the three’ six times down the years, whilst the success was gained under soft conditions.  Both of the course victories for ULIS DE VASSY were won on soft going, whilst BENI LIGHT completes my trio against the remaining five contenders in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader via three renewals though that said, two favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

1/12—Mondo Cane (soft)

2/3—Ulis De Vassy (2 x soft)

2/25—That’s The Deal (good & good to soft)

 

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2.30: ACHILLE looks a typical soft/heavy raider for Venetia Williams who saddled a couple of winners yesterday.  RIDDLESTOWN is the lone course winner in the field and though the trade press would have you believe that better ground would be appreciated by the eleven-year-old gelding, Riddlestown is a three time winner under soft conditions.  Unless the rain north of Watford becomes heavy, I believe it could be a close run affair between the two nominated thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor: Two of the three contests have been won by favourites though the other market leader finished out of the money.

Record of the course winner in the field:

7/24—Riddlestown (4 x good & 3 x soft)

 

3.00: It shows the quality of the rest of the horses in the field that good ground winner WHOSHOTWHO is rated heads and shoulders above this lot, aside from CASA TALL, with this pair fully expected to dominate proceedings well before the business end of proceedings comes into play.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Whoshotwho (good)

 

3.35: WESTERN WAVE and SHINOOKI are two alternative win and place options to SANDHURST LAD who I readily admit looks a more likely winner.  Richard Johnson’s mount is the first of three booked rides on the card for the champion jockey.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites via two renewals has claimed a Placepot position to date, albeit it was via a (10/3) victory.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Shinooki (good to soft)

 

4.05: WITH DISCRETION and PINEAPPLE RUSH are the likeliest winners of the contest though PHOENICIANA remains something thing of a dark horse on behalf of the Lucy Wadham team.  PINEAPPLE RUSH is Richard Johnson’s second ride on the card and is marginally preferred to WITH DISCRETION on this occasion/

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader prevailed.

 

4.35: There is plenty of realistic money in the positive exchange queue for TICKANRUN whereby James Bowen could add to his total of 50 winners which he has achieved in double quick time thus far.  COSMIC KING arguably stands in his way here making his first appearance for Fergal O’Brien who knows how to sweeten up new inmates to his yard – and then some!

Favourite factor: 7/4 and 5/2 favourites have been sunk without trace either side of the successful 7/5 market leader two years ago.

 

 

Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:

1/1—Katahdin (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 9th April

LUDLOW – APRIL 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £94.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 51.3% units went through – 15/8* & 9/2

Race 2: 22.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 12/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 84.0% of the remaining units went through – 1/2* & 7/2

Race 4: 46.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 11/4*

Race 5: 59.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 25/1 – 9/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 5/4* - 33/1 – 9/1

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 12 (Weebill) & 9 (Shalakar)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Western Climate), 6 (Goohar) & 7 (According To Harry)

Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Peruvian Bleu), 4 (Raise A Spark) & 2 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Ifandbutwhynot), 2 (Cut The Corner) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)

Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Molly Carew), 9 (Diva Du Maquis) & 5 (Goodgirlteresa)

Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Full Throttle) & 1 (Forever My Friend)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.20: Although there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue to back BATTLE OF IDEAS at around the 8/1 mark, the general price on offer is 6/1 whereby Colin Tizzard’s raider is an each way player at best from my viewpoint.  More obvious winners are WEEBILL and SHALAKAR, though Venetia Williams (trains the latter named entry) will have connections doing rain dances this morning I’ll wager!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged, as did four market leaders in the Placepot events on the card by an aggregate of 89 lengths!

 

2.50: The ground will hopefully have dried out enough for the three course winners in the field to offer Placepot investors plenty of hope in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  WESTERN CLIMATE, GOOHAR and ACCORDING TO HARRY are listed in order to preference to get us through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  Fourth Act is the class act in the field if any thoroughbred here can be used in those terms but horses who have run well with blinkers on for the first time do not have a good record in showing similar enthusiasm next time up according to my recollections from following the sport for well over fifty years.  In terms of runs/wins, Colin Tizzard’s raider should be a 13/2 chance via the percentages, not 5/2 as is currently the general offer.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame thus far by winning the relevant event at odds of 13/8.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

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1/2—Western Climate (good)

1/4—Goohar (good to soft)

1/3—According To Harry (good)

 

3.25: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests and with vintage representative PERUVIAN BLEU boasting a 3/3 ratio at the track, you will not be surprised to learn that the Nick Williams raider is the first name on my team sheet.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RAISE A SPARK I fancy, whilst I’M A GAME CHANGER completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include three winners.  That said, only one of the other six market leaders additionally snared a Placepot position during the period.

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—I’m A Game Changer – good to soft)

3/3—Peruvian Bleu (3 x good)

 

3.55: Last year’s winner IFANDBUTWHYNOT carries six pounds less this time around despite racing off a two pound higher mark, stats which demand that I include Danny Cook’s mount into the equation.  CUT THE CORNER represents Alistair Ralph who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect, whilst ROCK ON ROCKY also boasts win and place claims.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/5—Colin’s Brother (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Ifandbutwynot (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

4.30: Neil Mulholland is back among the winners and the popular trainer looks to have quite a strong hand here via his two entries, namely MOLLY CAREW and GOODGIRLTERESA.  If Neil and his team are to be denied, DIVA DU MAQUIS appears to be the potential spoiler in the line up.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for mares) on the Ludlow card.

 

5.05: I have only left myself two options here on a competitive card if we hold back from breaking into the ‘family reserves’ in order to appease our Placepot appetite.  Last year’s winner FULL THROTTLE and FOREVER MY FRIEND have edged out Diplomate Sivola and Queen Olivia (represents value for money from an each way perspective) accordingly.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions via two renewals to date, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Forever My Friend (good to firm)

1/1—Full Throttle (good to soft) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 8th April

EXETER – APRIL 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £36.20 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 70.5% units went through – 3/1, 11/4* & 7/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 16/1 & 5/2 (Evens)

Race 3: 59.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/4*, 8/1 & 6/1

Race 4: 84.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 5/2*

Race 5: 53.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 5/2* & 8/1

Race 6: 34.7% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1, 20/1 & 9/2** (9/2**)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 5 (Under the Woods) & 7 (Oh Dear Oh Dear)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Show On The Road), 5 (I See You Well) & 7 (Doc Carver)

Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Duhallow Lad), 3 (Caspar King) & 4 (The Gipper)

Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Alberto’s Dream) & 2 (The Kings Writ)

Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Gonnabegood), 5 (Shoofly Milly), 13 (Kayf Tiger) & 3 (Mister Drifter)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Colt Lightning) & 5 (Plantagenet)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: It should be a case of UNDER THE WOODS running a race in his own time when securing the contest, though you might have read similar words to your cost down the years.  Thankfully the favourite will not attract a working man’s wager so not too many fingers would be burned if the Evan Williams raider fails to run to the best of his form.  Should that be the case, OH DEAR OH DEAR is offered up as the insurance call.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 market leader found one too good when secured a Placepot position.

 

2.35: It’s interesting to note that Philip Hobbs has put Michael Nolan up again on SHOW ON THE ROAD, given that Richard Johnson rides at the meeting.  It’s good to see young pilots given their chance and hopefully the Flemensfirth heavy ground course winner will go close again today.  Connections might have most to fear from the likes of I SEE YOU WELL (fair each way chance – ignore the 14/1 trade press quote) and DOC CARVER.  Lord Napier is a worthy favourite but the current odds make no appeal whereby I’m hoping that the Bowen raider finishes out of the frame.

Favourite factor: Last year’s even money favourite let supporters down from a win perspective and from a Placepot perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

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1/1—Show On The Road (heavy)

3/6—Trans Express (2 x sot & good)

 

3.10: Two outsiders have come in for some support overnight, with course winner CASPAR KING marginally preferred to THE GIPPER of the pair.  Whether either horse will be able to keep tabs on DUHALLOW LAD at the business end of proceedings is another matter entirely.  It will be interesting to see if the support continues through the day, whilst the latter named Alan Jones representative was very impressive when scoring the last day.  Towcester can be one of most stamina sapping courses in the land. The Bay Birch won there on heavy ground just ten days ago and the race might have left its mark, as will the fifteen pound hike in his handicap mark.  Major Hindrance would be considered as the reserve nomination accordingly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

1/1—Major Hindrance (heavy)

1/1—Caspar King (soft)

 

3.40: Although the other five runners are not on offer at huge prices this morning, it seems that only THE KINGS WRIT is capable of stopping ALBERTO’S DREAM from securing a nap hand (five-timer), especially as trainer Tom Lacey cannot do a thing wrong just now.  Tom has saddled six of his last eight runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 18 points of level stake profit for good measure.  ALBERTO’S DREAM will not enhance the LSP a great deal today but that said, Tommy O’Brien should complete his hat trick aboard the nine-year-old gelding in this grade/company.  GENERAL GIRLING is expected to lead the others home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader found the 7/2 third favourite too strong when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners race in which only the first two horses home qualify relating to each way bets and Placepot ‘success’.

 

4.15: Jeremy Scott has quietly declared a couple of horses here and the wily trainer might have plenty to shout about as the race becomes competitive with GONNABEGOOD possibly leading SHOOFLY MILLY home on this occasion.  Not to be left out of the equation, David Pipe has also spied a chance for MISTER DRIFTER me thinks in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than KAYF TIGER I’ll wager if you’re chasing losses, though that is something I cannot condone.  As a wise man once told me, the last race is the first race tomorrow; in other words, there is no such thing as the ‘last race’.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (via two contests) have claimed Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/2—De Bene Esse (heavy)

1/6—Steel Express (heavy)

1/9—Shoofly Millie (soft)

1/5—Gonnabegood (soft)

 

4.45: COLT LIGHTNING is the other Tom Lacey runner on the card and for well documented reasons about the trainer being in such great form, Sean Bowen’s mount in the first name on the team sheet.  PLANTAGENET is expected to reward each way supporters in the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite snared the silver medal in a non Placepot event at the back end of the card.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/11—Only Gorgeous (good – good to firm – soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 7th April

KELSO – APRIL 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £77.50 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 2/1** & 5/1 (2/1**)

Race 2: 57.4% of the remaining units when through – 10/3, 3/1* & 10/1

Race 3: 60.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 & 2/1*

Race 4: 23.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 (2/1)

Race 5: 51.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2**, 4/1 & 6/1 (7/2**)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kelso: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Teddy Tee), 3 (Just Georgie), 2 (Hills Of Dubai) & 4 (Acdc)

Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Treshnish), 6 (Taxmeifyoucan) & 8 (Gassin Golf)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Yala Enki) & 5 (Seldom Inn)

Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Landecker), 1 (Donna’s Diamond) & 5 (Taking Risks)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Vengeur De Guye) & 2 (Bobbies Diamond)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Graystown) & 10 (Lastin Memories)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: In all honesty, I only chose Kelso today because ITV were hosting their programme from the Scottish venue because frankly speaking (a topical tip for the horse in the 4.15 at Uttoxeter?), this is a poor day of racing to end a wretched week.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that it is time to retire to the bar at the first time of asking, with all four runners holding realistic claims in this win only contest.  Hoping for the horse with the least number of Placepot units at flag fall to prevail, I would nominate Teddy Tee as the tentative potential winner, though only if the proverbial gun was aimed at yours truly.  Whichever horse prevails (likely as not), at least 60% of the Placepot units will be lost in this opening event, whereby a decent dividend can be expected at Kelso this afternoon.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Kelso today.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/3—Acdc (heavy)

 

2.25: TRESHNISH is the outsider to home on from my viewpoint with Sue Smith’s five-year-old looking to be on a handy mark in this grade/company.  Mirsaale has it all to do as far as the weight trend is concerned as the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-3.  TAXMEIFYOU CAN and GASSIN GOLF are expected to offer most resistance to the win and place selection at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Although market leaders have won via seven renewals thus far, they were all returned as joint favourites.  It’s worth noting that aside from the winners, the other seven jollies all finished out of the frame!

Record of the four course winners in the second contest on the card:

2/2—Mirsalle (good & soft)

1/4—Ubaltique (soft)

1/1—Golden Jeffrey (good)

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1/1—Taxmeifyoucan (heavy)

 

3.00: It would not surprise me if YALA ENKI and SELDOM INN dominated proceedings as the jockeys raise their whips, perhaps in a similar way in which the pair filled the forecast positions in the race last year, even though the trade press would have us believe that this is a new event on the card!  YALA ENKI positively thrives in bad ground (as do so many of the Venetia Williams inmates) and it is very doubtful that the eight-year-old will fail to reach the frame, win lose or draw at around the 5/1 mark at the time of writing. If you ignored the last three efforts of WILD WEST WIND (failed to complete the course on each occasion) you could offer the Tom George raider a chance, though only if you were going to ‘watch’ the race from behind the sofa!

Record of the four course winners in the third race:

1/1—Yala Enki (heavy)

3/7—Seldom Inn (good – good to soft – heavy)

1/3—Samstown (good to soft)

1/7—Harry The Viking (good to soft)

 

3.35: As a five time winner here at Kelso (unsuccessful elsewhere), there will be worse outsiders on today’s card than LANDECKER I’ll wager, especially as the heavy ground should not inconvenience Nick Alexander’s ten-year-old representative.  Connections of DONNA’S DIAMOND will be looking for compensation sooner rather than later having lost the supplementary fee for running in a race at the Cheltenham Festival the other week though that said, now many others in this event would have even been thought of in that regard?  TAKINGRISKS completes my trio against the remaining seven contenders in a half decent contest.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have secured Placepot positions to date though that said, only one (5/2) market leader has actually won the event to date.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

2/3—Takingrisks (2 x heavy)

4/10—Total Assets (2 x good to soft – soft – heavy)

5/16—Landecker (2 x good to soft – 2 x soft – heavy)

1/1—Letmego (soft)

 

4.10: Having gone ‘over the top’ in the first four races on the card, I am allowing myself just two Placepot chances here, the pin having dropped on VENGEUR DE GUYE and BOBBIES DIAMOND.  The first named raider represents Lucinda Russell who has the best recent record at the corresponding meeting, whilst BOBBIES DIAMOND attracted overnight support which caught the eye at the thick end of a double digit price.

Favourite factor: Contrasting results from the two contests thus far as last year’s 11/8 favourite more than made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 5/2 market leader.

Record of the three course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Caraline (heavy)

1/6—Vengeur De Guye (good to soft)

1/4—Oak Vintage (good)

 

4.45: GRAYSTOWN is the win and place call at 14/1 (Ladbrokes) this morning in a race which should not prove difficult to win, despite the declaration of hat trick seeker Haul Us In who does not represent value for money from my viewpoint.  I prefer to nominate LASTIN MEMORIES as the danger to my each way play, despite Sandy Forster’s raider running from two pounds out of the handicap.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date via four renewals, statistics which include two successful (9/2 & 7/2**) market leaders from a win perspective.

Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/4—Road To Gold (2 x heavy)

1/10—Another Mattie (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 6th April

FONTWELL – APRIL 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £98.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 60.4% units went through – 8/13* (Win only)

Race 2: 47.5% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3 (11/4)

Race 3: 88.3% of the remaining units went through – 11/4, 7/4* & 10/1

Race 4: 17.4% of the remaining units went through – 3/1 (Win only – 5/4 favourite unplaced)

Race 5: 71.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/2, 11/4* & 10/1

Race 6: 23.7% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2 & 7/2 (9/4)

 

* THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RACE BY RACE DETAILS RELATING TO YESTERDAY’S MAGNIFICENT £81,874.10 PLACEPOT DIVIDEND AT WOLVERHAMPTON CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOOT OF THIS COLUMN!  - Best of luck today!

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 8 (Kastani Beach), 5 (Goldslinger) & 11 (Dragon Khan)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Wizards Bridge), 4 (Bears Rails) & 3 (Crank Em Up)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Duke Of Kilcorral) & 1 (Larry)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Atlantic Roller), 1 (Clondaw Westie) & 3 (Le Coeur Net)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Present Times), 1 (Kings Lad) & 8 (Norse Legend)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Very Live) & 5 (Burgess Dream)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: Overnight money has arrived for a few ‘outsiders’ in this contest, the pick of which might prove to be KASTANI BEACH and GOLDSLINGER.  DRAGON KHAN is slightly preferred to Be Daring of those towards the head of the market at the time of writing.  The concession of weight might prove too much for Chris Gordon’s raider, despite the useful claim of Harry Reed.  If you fancy a clean sweep for bookmakers in the contest, Welluptoscratch is not without an each way chance.

 

2.35: Colin Tizzard puts a spanner in works having declared both WIZARDS BRIDGE and BEARS RAILS.  The pair are listed in marginal order of preference though with a potential ‘win only’ contest on our hands (in the event of a withdrawal), I’m adding CRANK EM UP into the Placepot mix.

Record of the three course winners in the second race:

2/5—Leo Luna (good & heavy)

3/5—Wizards Bridge (Good – soft – heavy)

1/1—Bears Rails (soft)

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3.10: Despite the ground concerns, course winner LARRY demands respect though having gone well on heavy going recently, DUKE OF KILCORRAL is the call. In the absence of any interest in the potential outsiders, Illtellmema looks booked for third spot from my viewpoint.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Larry (good to soft)

 

3.40: Just the three runners have been declared and with Anthony Honeyball saddling the ‘outsider’ of the party here, I’m adding all three declarations into the Placepot mix.  In order of preference, the trio is listed as ATLANTIC ROLLER, CLONDAW WESTIE and LE COEUR NET.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Clondaw Westie (heavy)

1/3—Atlantic Roller (heavy)

 

4.15: As a winner of two of his seven races on heavy ground, PRESENT TIMES is the win and place call in another trappy race on the Fontwell card.  It’s great to have turf racing back in the mix, though I will be relieved to have got through to the last leg if I have survived the minefield thus far. Others aiding and abetting the cause (hopefully) include Colin Tizzard’s value for money pair, KINGS LAD and NORSE LEGEND.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Kings Lad (heavy)

1/8—Occasionally Yours (soft)

 

4.50: VERY LIVE and BURGESS DREAM are the tentative dio to land the Placepot dividend between them, hoping for a few upsets along the way to produce another mind blowing Placepot dividend, as was the case yesterday!

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

4/15—Try Catch Me (3 x good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

BREAKDOWN OF THE RACE BY RACE DETAILS RELATING TO YESTERDAY’S MAGNIFICENT £81,874.10 PLACEPOT DIVIDEND AT WOLVERHAMPTON!

Dividend paid: £81,874.10 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced) – Prices of unplaced favourites are listed in brackets - Second highest Placepot dividend in UK history in 40+ years – the bet originated in South Africa:

Race 1: 39.4% units went through – 9/2, 14/1, 9/2 (4/1)

Race 2: 29.2% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 6/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 2/1 * 7/2

Race 4: 32.9% of the remaining units went through – 11/1 & 5/2** (5/2**)

Race 5: 0.7% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 (Win only – 11/10 favourite unplaced)

Race 6: 8.3% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 9/1 (6/4)

 

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