Placepot Pointers – Friday July 28th

ASCOT - JULY 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Expressly), 11 (Stream Song) & 4 (Indicia)

Leg 2 (2.10): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 8 (Strategist)

Leg 3 (2.45): 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (UAE King)

Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Mittens), 3 (Nathra) & 7 (On Her Toes)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Red Galileo), 6 (Tawddea) & 1 (Galapiat)

Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Soie D’Leau), 3 (Yalta), 10 Shamshon) & 11 (Coofitch)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: INDICIA will be the first name on many lips this morning, though bookmakers have made wonderful profits down the years when punters plunge on juveniles who have finished second on their debuts, only to get turned over as favourites next time out.  With EXPRESSIY and (arguably) JOUSY having also been declared however, it is debatable if INDICIA will be returned as the market leader in a typically warm Ascot two-year-old contest.  STREAM SONG also catches the eye at an each way price at the foot of the list in the familiar George Strawbridge (white with a green hoop) colours.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ascot card via the ‘novice status’ of races brought in by the BHA around 18 months ago.

 

2.10: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and given the amount of juveniles in his yard to choose from, we can suppose that MAGHWEER is among the top ranked two-year-old at base camp this season.  I’ve had to stop in my tracks as Richard’s raider has been scratched from the contest as I write.  No doubt Maghweer is one to keep an eye on.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MYTHICAL MAGIC and STRATEGIST are now probably the safest options from a Placepot viewpoint given that we have a ‘short field’ to assess.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s wording before the 5/2 favourite obliged; Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.

 

2.45: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig last year!  Thankfully Roger Varian (UAE KING) and Mark Johnston (MISTER MANDURO) are wise to the stats this time around and this pair are expected to duel all the way to the line from my viewpoint.  Mark Johnston has saddled no less than ten winners at this two day fixture during the last five years whereby from a value for money perspective at least, I’m taking MISTER MANDURO to marginally win the day.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include seven successful favourites.

 

3.20: Three-year-olds have now secured 11 of the last 15 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Little wonder then that two of the three-year-olds have attract plenty of each way support overnight, namely the progressive pair MITTENS and ON HER TOES.  Both horses are guaranteed places in my Placepot mix, though the softened ground might have gone against Tisbutadream who would otherwise have been added into the mix.  John Gosden’s NATHRA is elevated into the equation accordingly.  A winner on soft and good to soft ground on both of her previous seasonal debut assignments, Frankie’s mount would take the beating if cherry ripe for the task in hand.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 15 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Mittens (good)

1/2—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

 

3.55: I can report overnight win and place money for RED GALILEO which does not come as a great surprise with the Saeed Bin Suroor stable having hit top form recently, with nine of their last 21 runners having been saddled to winning effect.  Others for the melting pot include GALAPIAT and TAWDEEA, given that any value in Appeared has long since disappeared, if you’ll pardon the play on words.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market finished last of six runners (beaten 23 lengths), with favourite backers hoping for a distinctly better run for their money on this occasion.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Appeared (good to firm)

1/3—King Bolete (goot to fim)

1/4—Sennockian Star (good)

 

4.25:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 three years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 twelve months ago.  Unbelievably (I don’t believe it!) just one relevant horse has been declared this time around, with SOIE D’LEAU being the first name on the team sheet.  Ryan Moore boasts a 33% strike rate for Mark Johnston this season which can only aid and abet the cause of YALTA.  The recent Newmarket winner SHAMSHON finished fourth last year off a six pound higher mark, whilst COOLFITCH cannot be left out of the equations with conditions to suit.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed six years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last four winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Shamson (soft)

1/13—Jack Dexter (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Mark Johnston (3/30 – loss of 8 points)

4—David Elsworth (1/8 – Profit of 4 points)

4—William Haggas (4/29 – loss of 12 points)

4—Roger Varian (2/26 – loss of 16 points)

3—John Gosden (2/38 – loss of 21 points)

3—Richard Hannon (4/40 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (4/28 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Robert Cowell (0/7)

2—Tim Easterby (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/5)

2—William Knight (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/19 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Derek Shaw (No Previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £306.20 – 7 Favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Thirsk: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

York: £65.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplced

Uttoxeter: £426.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 27th July

SANDOWN - JULY 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £7.10 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 6 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Dutch Desire) & 6 (May Girl)

Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Joshua Reynolds), 1 (Janszoon) & 6 (Orsina)

Leg 3 (3.05): 8 (So Hi Society), 1 (Billesdon Brook) & 3 (Cape Bunting)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Eynhallow) & 1 (Silver Ghost)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Many Waters), 3 (Paradise Cove) & 12 (England Expects)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Finale), 3 (Kyllachys Tale) & 5 (Testbourne)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five year study of this corresponding meeting:

30 races – 14 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend: £57.00 – average during the last 4 years: £11.53

Best trainer stats on the Thursday of this two day meeting:

5 winners—Andrew Balding (9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4 & 2/1*) – 2 sets of doubles at 79/1 (last year) & 19/1 in 2013

4 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (9/2, 6/5*, Evens* & 1/5*) – includes a 10/1 double in 2014

3 winners—Michael Bell (11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*)

 

*Thanks for the kind messages regarding yesterday’s 40/1 winner for Andrew Balding – who has dominated this two day fixture during the last five years, as mentioned yesterday!

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: William Haggas boasts a phenomenal 38% strike rate with the juvenile this season via 14 winners, whereby his newcomer DUTCH DESIRE is the first name on the team sheet, especially from an advantageous trap one position.  Three of the experienced runners have shown decent form already, though only MAY GIRL is fancied to run the selection close, despite the current (skinny) 2/1 odds on offer about Princess Keira.  That said, I guess that trainer Mick Quinn (Princess Keira) thinks a lot of his Acclamation filly as this is only Mick’s third runner at Sandown during the last five years.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: Charlie Appleby saddled last year’s 7/1 winner and there is a difference of opinion in the bookmaking ranking about Charlie’s raider JANSZOON twelve months on.  Available at 9/2 in a few places, Charlie’s Dubawi gelding was a decent winner on this type of ground earlier in the season and is as short at 10/3 with Coral.  I can understand that John Gosden’s impressive recent Newmarket winner JOSHUA REYNOLDS is the favourite for the contest, though a difference of 15% of the market chalked up by some layers looks extravagant.  Don’t be too quick to write off ORSINO down at the bottom of the weights.  Andrew Balding’s record at this meeting is there for all to see, whilst it’s worth noting that Andrew has won this event three times via the last eight renewals in which the stable was represented. John Gosden’s ‘second string’ Great Sound adds interest to proceedings (especially as John’s Galileo colt has won on soft ground), though John has not saddled a winner on the second day of this meeting during the last five years.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 20 years.  18 of the 26 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.  All that said, it’s worth noting that last year’s 8/13 market leader was beaten.

 

3.05: This 'Star Stakes' invariably takes some winning and with plenty of horses being backed overnight, that scenario looks likely to continue.  BILLESDON BROOK, SO HI SOCIETY and even 40/1 chance CAMPION (in a place or two) are being supported at the time of writing, still potentially offering better value for money than CAPE BUNTING perhaps, from a Placepot perspective at least.   If I had to opt for one runner, it would be SO HI SOCIETY given her soft ground win alongside the fact that trainer Archie Watson can do little wrong at this moment in time.  Her five length defeat in a Group 2 contest last time out arguably sets the standard in the race for good measure.  I can’t let the race pass without a small mention for Whitefountainfairy who represents Andrew Balding.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed in the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 25 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.40: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals (and eight of the last ten), yet only EYNHALLOW represents the juniors on this occasion (trainers take note)!  Although the ground will be slower than Roger Charlton’s Nathanial raider encounetered when posting a course and distance victory here at Sandown only last week, the effort remains locked in the memory bank and it will surely take something out of the ordinary to lower his colours today, especially with a half decent five pound claimer in the saddle to (almost) negate the relevant penalty.  That said, there has been plenty of support for SILVER GHOST overnight and I expect this pair to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  EYNHALLOW demands the vote in receipt of up to ten pounds from his main rival, according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last 20 years, whilst 12 of the 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  That said, 18 of the last 19 winners were returned at 8/1 or less.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card: 

1/3—Inke (good to soft)

1/2—Eynhallow (good)

 

4.10: The 14/1 quote in the trade press about ENGLAND EXPECTS might look a tad fanciful if the overnight support for Karl Burke’s raider is maintained.  Seemingly with plenty to on the form book (especially on ground slower than good), Karl Burke’s raider is offered respect given the trainer’s 3/8 record at the track this year, figures which have produced 23 points of level stake profit.  More logical winners further up the handicap include MANY WATERS and PARADISE COVE.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

4.45: Another Karl Burke outsider on the card not to write off too quickly is his 22/1 chance TESTBOURNE in the Placepot finale, given that Karl’s Big Bad Bob gelding was withdrawn from a race at the track yesterday on account of yielding conditions.  If any showers in the area miss the Esher venue, Martin Harley’s mount could outrun his odds.  That said, the race would take on a different complexion entirely if Karl withdraws his three-year-old again, as we would be left a ‘win only’ contest to assess, which could make a great deal of difference to the eventual Placepot dividend (which we secured again yesterday).  FINALE and KYLLACHYS TALE make most appeal of the remaining quartet.

Favourite factor: Both of last year’s inaugural 9/2 joint favourites finished in the frame, though they had to give best to the 11/2 winner.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Thursday + recorded winners on the second day of this two day fixture during the last five years:

5 runners—Karl Burke

5—Richard Hannon (1 winner at 6/1)

3—Andrew Balding (5 winners at 9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4 & 2/1*)

3—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Jim Boyle

2—Tom Dascombe

2—Harry Dunlop (1 winner at 28/1)

2—John Gosden

2—William Haggas (2 winners at 11/2 & 5/2*)

2—Hughie Morrison

2—William Muir

2—Jamie Osborne

1—Charlie Appleby (1 winner at 7/1)

1—Michael Bell (3 winners at 11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*)

1—Mark Johnston (1 winner at 9/4*)

1—Sir Michael Stoute (4 winners at 9/2, 6/5*, Evens* & 1/5*)

1—Ian Williams (1 winner at 4/1)

+ 22 other trainers who also saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £83.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Newbury: £16.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Yarmouth: £15.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Worcester: £26.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 26

SANDOWN - JULY 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £282.50 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown : 

Leg 1 (6.00): 1 (Pack It In), 7 (Sir Jack) & 6 (Jack Of Diamonds)

Leg 2 (6.35): 4 (Itsakindamagic) & 6 (Almorab)

Leg 3 (7.10): 7 (Red Mist), 4 (Bold Reason) & 8 (Sam Gold)

Leg 4 (7.40): 5 (Sultan Baybars) & 6 (Fox Trotter)

Leg 5 (8.10): 7 (Taper Tantrum), 3 (Clowance One) & 5 (West Drive)

Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Alsvinder), 3 (Francisco) & 5 (Stoneyford Lane)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five year study of this corresponding meeting:

30 races – 9 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Average Placepot dividend on the Wednesday of the two day fixture: £162.78

Best trainer stats during the two days of the fixture with runners on Wednesday:

7 winners--Andrew Balding (9/1, 9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4, 2/1* & 7/4*) – 2 runners: Breakheart (6.00) & Itsakindamagic (6.30)

3 winners—Michael Bell (11/2, 9/2 & 5/4*) – 1 runner: Taper Tantrum (8.10)

Footnote: Watch out for Andrew’s runners on Thursday as five of his seven winners over the course of the two days came on day two of the meeting.

Sir Michael Stoute (not represented on Wednesday) has saddled six winners down the years, four of which secured on the Thursday – all details will be featured in Thursday’s service.

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals which brings in the likes of PACK IT IN, SIR JACK and ARCHIMENTO into the mix, with vintage representatives on offer at 9/4 to improve the recent ratio before the form book is consulted.  The trio is listed in order of preference.  That said, JACK OF DIAMONDS might be worth a small bet if you are looking for a more speculative punt, especially as Roger Teal has saddled his last two runners to winning effect at 25/1 & 20/1.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far via eight renewals, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/8—Jack Of Diamonds (good)

1/3—Breakheart (good to firm)

 

6.35: Three-year-olds have secured seven of the last ten renewals of this event, with four of the nine runners hailing from the vintage this time around.  It only took two relevant raider to win the race between them twelve months ago, whereby there is plenty of confidence in landing the spoils on this occasion.  ITSAKINDAMAGIC represents Andrew Balding who has dominated this meeting in recent seasons and with more rain expected to fall this morning/afternoon leading up to tonight’s meeting, Andrew’s Mount Nelson colt demands plenty of respect.  ALMORAB has won under todays projected conditions (could be soft by flag fall), with Richard Hannon’s raider preferred to Testbourne as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the eleven renewals to date, with seven of the thirteen market leaders having finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the second contest:

1/5—Mister Music (good)

 

7.10: Market leaders have a very good record in this contest as you can see for yourself below.  It appears that you can ignore the 9/4 trade press quote for RED MIST (Frankel representative) who has already been the subject of plenty of support, with 15/8 being a more likely return.  In case that does not appear as a great differential between the two prices, the difference is roughly the same as a horse being backed in from 9/1 to 6/1.  BOLD REASON and SAM GOLD hail from the powerful Gosden and Varian yards respectively and have to be included in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have won this contest, whilst 17 market leaders have reach the frame during the study period.

 

7.40: ‘Tapwater’ (Michael Attwater) does not grab headlines very often but with his last two runners have been saddled to winning effect at 20/1 & 7/2, the chance of PROFESSOR is respected, though SULTAN BAYBARS (one of eight booked rides for SDS with good chances today) should take the beating in all honesty.  Five of Roger Varian’s last six winners (via 14 raiders) have been returned as favourites, with the other gold medallist returned at just 2/1.   FOX TROTTER handles the ground and with 4/1 freely available at the time of writing, punters might view Brian Meehan’s Bushranger gelding as an each way ‘bet to nothing’ investment.  For new readers, the term ‘bet to nothing’ basically means that punters would receive their money back if the selection is placed, even if it has not won.  As horses have to finish in the first two in this event because there only six entries, one quarter of the odds are offered as place terms, whereby 4/1 represents a ‘bet to nothing’ if Fox Trotter finishes second, if a price of 4/1 has been secured.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourites (unusually) finished out of the frame finishing fourth behind horses that filled the frame having been returned at 5/1, 5/1 & 7/1.

 

8.10: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 7-3 during the last 14 years.  Four-year-olds are around the 11/8 mark to increase their recent dominance before the form book is consulted. Although Michael Bell’s three winners were gained on the Thursday of this two day meeting during the last five years, Michael’s five-year-old representative TAPER TANTRUM has been the subject of a little support overnight and if Louis Steward is allowed to set his own fractions aboard the tentative selection, Michael could be celebrating another success.  Life is full of ‘ups and downs’ as a trainer and for Michael, this would be a poignant winner, having attended the funeral of Mercy Rimell yesterday.  Michael started his career with the team in the west-country and his eulogy yesterday produced lots of laughter and tears, with only some of it (seemingly) being printable.  Those of us who have been in the game for over 50 years grew up on the great careers of Fred & Mercy who took no prisoners in those days when political correctness had no place in a ‘hard working’ environment!  It was no different at Fred Winter’s stable and certainly not with Arthur Stephenson ‘oop north’ who would have had little or no time for the way things pan out today.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that CLOWANCE ONE and WEST DRIVE should offer challenges to TAPER TANTRUM at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won during the last twenty years alongside two joint favourites.  13 of the 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/3—Taper Tantrum (good to firm)

 

8.40: Horses carrying 9-5 or more have won all three renewals whist securing six of the eight available Placepot positions via 56% of the total number of runners. The stats suggest that the likes of ALSVINDER and FRANCISCO should wrap up the Placepot for us if we were live going into the finale.  If however, the ground has cut up really badly, the chance of STONEYFORD LANE would improve to the point of being included in the Placepot equation. All that said, I would not have a bet from a win perspective in this contest with your money!

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured one medal of each colour whilst securing Placepot poisitions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Seve (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Richard Hannon (4/27 – loss of 8 points)

3—Michael Attwater (No previous runners this season at Sandown)

3—Tony Carroll (No previous runners)

3—Brian Meehan (2/8 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Roger Varian (5/9 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Karl Burke (3/7 – Profit of 24 points)

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £107.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Catterick: £41.50 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Leicester: £11.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £69.80 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday July 27

MUSSELBURGH - JULY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £869.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 9 (Love To Rock), 6 (Joyful Star) & 1 (Adventureman)

Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Footsteps Forever) & 2 (Dontgiveuponbob)

Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Paddy Power), 1 (Royal Brace) & 4 (Rock Of America)

Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Question Of Faith) & 4 (Traditional Dancer)

Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Sunnua), 8 (Hamster Jam) & 4 (Donnelly’s Rainbow)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Sebastian’s Wish) & 1 (Dubawi Fifty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Musselburgh - five year corresponding study:

35 races – 11 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Average Placepot dividend: £591.82

Highest dividend: £1747.00 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £76.60 (2015)

Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

3 winners—Iain Jardine (8/1, 11/2 & 4/1) - 3 runners: Kerry Icon (2.15), Traditional Dancer (3.45) & Stoneham (4.45)

3 winners--Mark Johnston (9/2, 15/8 & 7/4*) - 2 runners: Forever Footsteps (2.45) & Hamster Jam (4.15)

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: There is some overnight money for JOYFUL STAR emerging in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  You might do well to obtain the trade press quote of 10/1 this morning about Graham Lee’s mount, with connections possibly having most to fear from course winner AVENTUREMAN and LOVE TO ROCK whose trainer (Adrian Paul Keatley) saddled a (16/1) winner at Ayr on the opposite coastline in Scotland yesterday.  Adrian boasts a 25% percent record via 15 winners at Ayr during the last five years though interestingly, this is his first runner at Musselburgh in all of that time.

Favourite factor:  The opening race is a new event on the Musselburgh card

Course winners in the opening event:

1/6—Adventureman (good)

2/13—Nelson’s Bay (good to firm & soft)

 

2.45: Keith Burke seems to be saddling more winners down south these days whereby FOOTSTEPS FOREVER and DONTGIVEUPONBOB are preferred to Myboyhenry on this occasion.  The latter named raider made his debut two months ago now which also poses a question, whereas the first named pair are battle hardened and ready to dual for the main prize from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  Just one of the two favourites has finished in the frame to date (no winners).

 

3.15: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have won four of the five contests thus far, whilst four-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the race.  The vintage stats suggest that PADDY POWER cannot be left out of the equation in a race in which many of the entries meet each other on a regular basis which makes this look like a ‘greyhound’ event.  Pearl Acclaim has contested 34 assignments since last tasting success, whereby ROYAL BRAVE and ROCK OF AMERICA are the main threats to the selection according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include one winner.

Course winners in the third race:

2/7—Royal Brave (2 x good to firm)

5/17—Silvanus (2 x good & 3 x good to firm)

2/15—Economic Crisis (2 x good to firm)

1/6—Pearl Acclaim (good to firm)

 

3.45: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-4 have won five of the six renewals thus far, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the five contests when represented. That said, vintage representative are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.  Spokesperson won this event two years ago but has only finished in front of just two of her 57 rivals since that success!  Others are preferred accordingly, with QUESTION OF FAITH and TRADITIONAL DANCER jumping off the page and I fully expect this pair to lock horns at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor:  Three of the seven market leaders (via five contests) have claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/4—Cosmic Tigress (good to firm)

2/18—Jonny Delta (good & good to firm)

1/2—Spokesperson (good)

 

4.15: All seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 or more, whilst three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 to date.  Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats accordingly which leaves ten horses to assess, the pick of which might prove to be SUNNUA, HAMSTER JAM and DONNELLY’S RAINBOW from a value for money perspective at least.  It will interesting to see if overnight support for SUNNUA continues into the mainstream investment period.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Fine Example (good to firm)

4/18—Ralphy Boy (3 x good & good to firm)

2/18—Cyflymder (good & good to firm)

 

4.45: DUBAWI FIFTY represents Karen McLintocks as the popular trainer seeks to break her bad run at Musselbugh, her last ten raiders having been beaten in Edinburgh during the last five years.  Layers look frightened of laying Graham Lee’s mount beyond the 3/1 mark which makes for interesting reading.  That said, SEBASTIAN’S WISH is on the crest of a wave right now and looks to be the horse to beat.  His 2/3 record at the course under these type of conditions suggests that the ratio will be improved upon this afternoon, unless Karen’s raider is cherry ripe for the battle after a long break from the track.

Favourite factor:  All five favourites have been beaten thus far with three Placepot positions secured to date.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Sebastian’s Wish (2 x good to firm)

2/7—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)

2/6—Stoneham (2 x good)

2/14—Jan Smuts (good & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Keith Dalgleish (5/46 – loss of 25 points)

4—Jim Goldie (2/21 – loss of 13 points)

3—Rebecca Bastiman (3/10 – Profit of 6 points)

3—Richard Fahey (5/27 – Profit of 8 points)

3—Iain Jardine (1/16 – loss of 13 points)

3—David O’Meara (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Fred Watson (0/1)

2—Karl Burke (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—David C Griffiths (1/10 – loss of 3 points)

2—Mark Johnston (0/1)

2—Adrian Paul Keatley (No previous runners)

2—Karen McLintock (0/1)

2—Linda Perratt (0/7)

2—John David Riches (No previous runners)

2—Wilf Storey (0/4)

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £9.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Nottingham: £139.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 24

BEVERLEY – JULY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £153.60 (8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 2 (Piedita), 1 (Laureate) & 9 (Nothing Compares)

Leg 2 (6.25): 1 (Special Purpose) & 9 (Me Before You)

Leg 3 (6.55): 11 (Maureb), 13 (Thatcherite) & 7 (The Nazca Lines)

Leg 4 (7.25): 4 (Katebird), 8 (Greenview Paradise) & 9 (Snookered)

Leg 5 (7.55): 3 (Muirsheen Durkin) & 9 (Navarone)

Leg 6 (8.25): 7 (Justice Pleasing), 3 (Old China) & 12 (Pepys)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five year study of the corresponding meeting:

30 races – 12 winning favourites – 27/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Average Placepot dividend: £109.56

Highest dividend: £153.60 (last year) – Lowest dividend: £76.00 (2013)

Best trainers:

4 winners—Tim Easterby (9/2, 10/3, 11/4* & 4/6*)

4 runners on the card – 7/37 this season – Level stake loss of 5 points

3 winners—Ollie Pears (20/1, 5/2 & 6/4*) 5 runners

2 runners on the card – 4/19 this season – Level stake profit of 39 points

3 winners—Mark Johnston (10/1, 7/4* & 11/10*) – 2 runners

5 runners on the card – 7/37 this season – Level stake profit of 6 points

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.55: It’s not often that a meeting opens with a two mile contest on the level but that’s what we are faced with here.  High on numbers but probably short on potential winners, it’s worth noting that seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, a trend that could (perhaps) should be continued with PIEDITA and Mark Johnston’s pair LAUREATE and NOTHING COMPARES having been declared.

Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  Half of the favourites (6/12) have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

6.25: It’s important to stress that the Lingfield win gained by newcomer SPECIAL PURPOSE was gained on turf when the William Haggas raider bolted up on good ground.  Punters often make the wrong assumption (either way) regarding turf and all weather surfaces and it is useful just to take a few moments to establish what conditions horses ran under when scoring at the track.  Well enough drawn here (4/12), Oisin Murphy’s mount should make short work of the opposition even taking the penalty into account, especially as Scat Daddy stock can be really decent types having showed such early talent.  David O’Meara has wasted no time in dropping ME BEFORE YOU down a furlong which should ensure that the silver medal is his for the taking following an encouraging run at Ripon on her first day at school.  Me Before You is a clever name for a filly if taking old fashioned standards into account!

Favourite factor: This is a new race on The Beverley card with the BHA having introduced their ‘novice system’ around 18 months ago.

 

6.55: John Quinn’s last two runners on Saturday won their respective races at 25/1 & 5/1 and THE NAZCA LINES would have been his first subsequent runner but for an Ayr entry earlier in the day.  That said, if support comes in for the recent Carlisle winner making Jason Hart’s mount the clear favourite, ‘stat types’ like yours truly might not want to watch the closing stages if the record of market leaders in this race is taken into account (see details below).  8/15 is hardly a perfect draw either as this is a horse that generally comes from off the pace.  That said, a three pound hike for the Carlisle win can offer connections confidence and a Placepot position is certainly within reach at least.  Others for the melting pot include Tony Coyle’s pair MAUREB (third in this event twelve months ago) and THATCHERITE who is well boxed in trap three.  The chance for MAUREB is there for all to see, running off a six pound lower mark having been beaten by only a length last year.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last nine renewals has been claimed by a favourite during which time, two 20/1 gold medallists have reared their ugly heads.  Indeed, the winner three years ago is the only market leader to have finished in the frame (exact science) in the afore-mentioned nine year period!

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/1—Musharrif (good to firm)

1/3—First Bombardment (good)

1/13—Bronze Beau (good to firm)

1/4—Jack Luey (soft)

1/1—Astrophysics (good to firm)

2/13—Thatcherite (2 x good)

1/3—Crosse Fire (good to firm)

 

7.25: Three-year-olds have claimed five of the nine contests to date and Mark Johnston is typically wise to the facts and stats having declared vintage representative KATEBIRD.  Mark has saddled the winner of two of the last five renewals when represented and his Dark Angel filly is the first name on my team sheet.  It’s also difficult for me to ignore Richard Fahey’s pair of three-year-olds down at the foot of the handicap, namely GREENVIEW PARADISE and SNOOKERED.

Favourite factor: Three of the last six contests have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/2.  Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Katebird (good)

1/4—Lopito De Vega (good)

1/3—Bromance (good to firm)

 

7.55: Plenty of rain is forecast for the Beverley area overnight and some way into the morning which could aid and abet the chance of soft ground course winner NAVARONE.  The money overnight however was for MUIRSHEEN DURKIN which could prove significant, whilst there was also each way support for CHAPLIN BAY who could reward win and place investors at around the 9/1 mark.  The 14/1 trade press quote about Ruth Carr’s five-year-old raider appears fanciful at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: One of the three 4/1 co favourite duly obliged last year, though the other two market leaders finished out of the money in ‘short field’ event.  New readers light like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

2/5—Sovereign Bounty (good & good to firm)

2/3—Muirsheen Durkin (good to firm & good to soft)

5/16—Talent Scount (5 x good to firm)

1/1—Navarone (soft)

 

8.25: I suppose the obvious bet ion this handicap event would be to look for odds on at least on non-runner being announced before flag fall, though I’ll wager the quote would be skinny in the extreme with 16 entries still ‘intact’ at the time of writing!  Upwards and onward be declaring that my trio against the field consists of JUSTICE PLEASING (drawn well enough; 5/16), OLD CHINA (has run well on soft before should moisture get into the ground) and beaten favourite PEPYS, albeit Bryan Smart’s representative enters my ‘last chance saloon’ tonight.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Lawrence Mullaney trained) 4/1 favourite finished well in arrears, the frame being filled by horses returned at 7/1, 7/1 & 20/1.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/4—So It’s War (good to firm)

4/28—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)

2/3—Arcane Dancer (2 x good to firm)

3/20—I’m Super Too (3 x good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (11/46 – Profit of 3 points)

5—Mark Johnston (7/37 – Profit of 6 points)

4—Michael Appleby (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

4—Tim Easterby (3/45 – loss of 5 points)

4—David O’Meara (3/44 – Loss of 25 points)

3—Anthony Brittain (2/9 – Profit of 10 points)

3—Declan Carroll (2/12 – loss of 2 points)

3—Tony Coyle (1/11 – loss of 5 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/20 – loss of 4 points)

3—Bryan Smart (1/15 – loss of 10 points)

3—Karen Tutty (3/14 – Profit of 26 points)

2—Rebecca Bastiman (1/8 – Loss of 2 points)

2—Neville Bycroft (0/1)

2—Ruth Carr (1/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/7)

2—Roger Fell (1/15 – loss of 12 points)

2—Marjorie Fife (0/3)

2—James Given (0/7)

2—David C Griffiths (0/8)

2—Patrick Holmes (0/5)

2—Lawrence Mullaney (0/8)

2—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/2)

2—Ollie Pears (4/19 – Profit of 39 points)

2—John Quinn (2/14 – loss of 2 points)

2—Mark Walford (2/6 – Profit of 4 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

93 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £66.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Windsor: £20.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Cartmel: £18.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday July 23rd

NEWTON ABBOT - JULY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £119.60 (6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Newton Abbot: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Knight Commander) & 2 (Arty Campbell)

Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Horse Force One) & 7 (Whoshotwho)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Bigad Bihoue) & 2 (Vosne Romanee)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Vision De Loire), 2 (Charlie Rascal) & 1 (Amadeus Rox)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Calin Du Brizais), 5 (A Tail Of Intrigue) & 7 (Beuvron)

Leg 6 (4.50): 4 (Theo) & 2 (Bistouri D’Honore)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: There were no ‘odds against’ quotes about KNIGHT COMMANDER when penning this column at day break and I expect than scenario to be in place leading up to flag fall.  It’s not so much that the four-year-old is ‘nailed on’ via the form book for me, it is more to do with the fact that three of Olly Murphy’s last six runners have won, whilst Richard Johnson has been booked to ride.  Connections probably have most to fear from ARTY CAMPBELL.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.50: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last eight renewals with HORSE FORCE ONE looking to extend the lead for the older brigade.  Upped in trip now and having to hump hurdles for the first time, HORSE FORCE ONE will, nonetheless, be well backed to win again for the Hobbs/Johnson bandwagon.  Only WHOSHOTWHO can be expected to be in a position to make some sort of challenge at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won five of the last nine renewals of this event though that said, two of the other five market leaders during the period finished out with the washing.  Eleven of the winners during an extended period were returned at a top price of 7/1, the other events having been secured by 33/1 and 14/1 outsiders.

 

3.20: Backing Paul Nicholls runners at Newton Abbot this season has been tantamount to printing your own money, the trainer boasting a ratio of 10/15, stats which have produced 16 points of level stake profits.  We will not become rich by backing BAGAD BIHOUE here but with (seemingly) only VOSNE ROMANEE to beat, Paul Nicholls will surely continue his domination of Newton Abbot contests this season when represented.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured two gold and a pair of silver medals though unfortunately from a Placepot perspective, one of the relevant silver medallists contested a 'win only' contest.

 

3.50: The first reasonably competitive event on the card which would definitely be the case if a non-runner rears its head during the course of the day.  I would have given a chance to Bill Turner’s debutant IL SICARIO but with the trainer having failed to secure a winner since the end of April via 29 representatives, I find myself looking elsewhere.  Three other newcomers will for me accordingly, namely VISION DE GLOIRE, CHARLIE RASCAL and AMADEUS ROX.  The trio are not listed in order of preference because at the time writing, there is no order of preference!  I doubt any of these will be turning up at the Cheltenham Festival come March though as a wise man once told me, it never pays to presume…

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite offered a ‘schoolboy error’ (name of the horse) when finishing third in a short field event whereby Placepot units went up in smoke.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

4.20: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 though one of what might have been the discarded pair creates some interest.  Trainer Martin Hill landed a 234/1 treble at this corresponding meeting a few years back (Martin has saddled four winners during the last years) whereby BEUVRON (carrying 11-1) will be added into the Placepot mix here at a big price, accompanying more obvious potential winners such as A TAIL OF INTRIGUE and CALIN DU BRIZAIS.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during which time, three favourites (2/1, 11/4 & 3/1) have prevailed from a win perspective.

 

4.50: PP are out on a limb at the time of writing by offering 6/4 about THEO, the Dr Newland raider being as short as tips (11/10) with the ‘magic sign’.  The good Doctor has him team in fine fettle and his hat trick seeker looks sure to go close.  That said, PP are probably balancing their books because they know that there is likely to be a heap of running up money for the second Paul Nicholls runner of the day, namely BISTOURI D’HONORE.  This pair should certainly land the Placepot dividend between them for us, providing we were live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out with the washing behind horses which filled the frame at 20/1, 8/1 & 8/1, enabling a half decent Placepot dividend (£119.60) to be declared.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newton Abbot card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Martin Hill (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

3—Seamus Mullins (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

2—Peter Bowen (0/3)

2—Jimmy Frost (0/14)

2—Nicky Henderson (0/1)

2—Dr Richard Newland (No previous runners this season)

2—Paul Nicholls (10/15 – Profit of 16 points)

2—Brendan Powell (No previous runners)

2—David Rees (1/2 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Bill Turner (0/1)

2—Dai Williams (0/5)

2—Evan Williams (0/7)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

54 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Redcar: £178.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Stratford: £70.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 22nd July

NEWBURY - JULY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £268.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Remarkable), 9 (Executive Force) & 4 (Straight Right)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Arthenus), 7 (What About Carlo) & 8 (Best Of Days)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Lady Macapa), 1 (Gifted Master), 6 (Raucous) & 12 (Visionary)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Corinthia Knight), 2 (Zalshah) & 18 (One For June)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Ghayadh) & 2 (Alkhalifa)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Sante) & 5 (Pavillion)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: First things first, by informing that plenty of rain is forecast for this area from 11.00 right through until the end of racing, with plenty of the wet stuff having been witnessed here in the west country during the second half of the day on Friday.  EXECUTIVE FORCE makes some sort of each way appeal at around the 12/1 mark given that William Haggas is still churning out regular winners (11/1 gold medallist yesterday), whilst conditions should not detract from his chance.  More logical winners via the form might (arguably) include REMARKABLE and STRAIGHT RIGHT.

Favourite factor: Both favourites to date finished nearer last than first when missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Majeste (good)

1/2—Executive Force (soft)

 

2.25: At around 8/1 and a proven winner in this (Listed) class, ARTHENUS is the first name on the team sheet, especially from a value for money perspective.  James Fanshawe rarely spends too long between saddling winners and Tom Queally’s mount is expected to reach the frame at the very least on the type of going which he has won on before.  WHAT ABOUT CARLO can run another solid race; given that Eve Johnson Houghton’s raider has adapted to today’s potential conditions well during his career, whilst the chance for BEST OF DAYS is there for all to see, though how Hugo Palmer’s raider would handle really soft ground is an unknown factor.

Favourite factor: Although two of the last four favourites have won (10/11 & 9/4), they are the only market leaders to have prevailed during the last decade, with four of nine winners having been returned in double figures, ranging between 10/1 & 28/1.  That said, five of the last nine favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

1/4—Spark Plug (good)

2/7—What About Carlo (2 x good to soft)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals of this (Group 3) Hackwood Stakes, yet only three vintage representatives have been offered chances on this occasion.  All three horses are offered as win and place options this time around, including the 28/1 quoted LADY MACAPA who is fully expected to outrun her price.  GIFTED MASTER might be written by some following a lengthy break but Hugo Palmer’s raider has defied similar scenarios in the past, whilst RAUCOUS finished third in this event twelve months ago.  Three-year-olds do not have a good recent record in the contest, though that did not stop vintage raiders securing 14/20 renewals of the race from a period starting back in 1986.  VISIONARY is discounted by some firms at 20/1 this morning which as a soft ground winner looks a tad too big from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 18 years with 12 market leaders having claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/4—Windfast (good to firm)

1/1—Visionary (soft)

 

3.35: ‘Team Hannon’ have claimed five gold and four silver medals via the last 13 contests in this ‘Super Sprint‘, whilst also saddling a quartet of fourth placed horses for good measure.  Richard saddles ‘only’ three massive outsiders today, the pick of which should prove to be ZALSHAH with Ryan Moore booked to ride.  It’s as though Richard is offering other trainers a chance this year or is it that he has spied a probable winner of a race which is invariably tough to call?  That horse would have been (still is to a fashion) CORINTHIA KNIGHT from my perspective had better ground conditions been in place, though the form of trainer Archie Watson still convinces me that his Society Rock colt is the horse to beat.  Archie has saddled four of his last five runners to winning effect (Corinthia Knight is his only runner today – one at Redcar on Sunday), whilst the other inmate was beaten ‘three parts’ at 20/1!  ONE FOR JUNE completes my only three horses against the field which makes me the bravest boy in Bristol this morning!  One For June was winning over six furlongs the last day and whilst some folk might suggest that the drop back in trip is a negative factor, the good to soft winner might be staying on when others have cried enough on this ground late doors.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourite have scored via the last 17 contests.  Ten of the 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Four of the last seven favourites have won which is a really positive return in such a competitive event, with the 2013 market leader having been beaten by just a neck.

 

4.10: The top two runners in the list should take plenty of kicking out of the frame, even though I would not play the race aside from our favourite (Placepot) wager.  Both horses (GHAYADH and ALKHALIFA) will encounter opposite conditions to what they faced at the first time of asking but that said, the experience of those assignments will hold them in good stead today.  HELVETIAN has a Group 1 (Pheonix Stakes) entry and Mick Channon does not hand out potential assignments of that order to his unraced juveniles too often.

Favourite factor: Given its novice status, this is a new race ion the Newbury card.

 

4.45: SANTE was only beaten half a length on soft ground in a Doncaster event earlier this season which bodes well for her chance under today’s conditions which will only get slower as each race evolves.  That said, PAVILLION is the horse for money as dawn breaks, though 7/1 is still available in a few places which could offer some value for money in the Placepot finale.  LINCOLN ROCKS was only put up a couple of pounds for a recent success, though the relevant 32 ounces might feel more like a stone in the eighth furlong of this mile event.

Favourite factor: Only one (6/5) favourite has prevailed during the last nine renewals during which time, four market leaders finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday:

9 runners—Richard Hannon

5—Richard Fahey

5—Hugo Palmer

4—Clive Cox

4—Slyvester Kirk

3—Andrew Balding

3—William Haggas

3—Brian Meehan

3—David Simcock

3—Ed Walker

2—Mick Channon

2—Roger Charlton

2—James Fanshawe

2—John Gosden

2—Charlie Hills

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Phil McBride

2—David O’Meara

2—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Joseph Tuite

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

82 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £372.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £39.40 – 7 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £24.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Ripon: £11.10 – 7 favourites – four winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Cartmel: £118.10 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed- 3 unplaced

Market Rasen: £83.70 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 21st July

NEWMARKET - JULY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £225.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 4 (Truly Scrumptious), 1 (Duchy) & 7 (Della Vale)

Leg 2 (6.10): 1 (Quivery) & 4 (Eastern Sunrise)

Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Rigoletto), 4 (Time’s Arrow) & 3 (Angel Down)

Leg 4 (7.10): 9 (Yalta), 7 (Willytheconqueror) & 5 (Ornate)

Leg 5 (7.45): 9 (Partitia), 7 (Raven’s Lady) & 11 (Clon Coulis)

Leg 6 (8.15): 6 (Pretty Asset) & 8 (Song Maker)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.35: Ten of the fourteen winners to date have carried weights of nine stones or more, whilst four-year-olds lead the three-year-olds 6-4 via results during the last twelve years.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DUCHY, DELLA VALE and TRULY SCRUMPTIOS.  The first named pair have the stats on their side, whilst five time course winner TRULY SCRUMPTIOUS is difficult to ignore given that ground does not seem to be an issue to the evergreen eight-year-old.  The overnight 9/2 quote in the trade press looks a tad generous and one that I would take if the relevant chalk was marked up.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourites have scored during the last decade.  That said, winners at 25/1 and 16/1 (twice) have also been recorded during the study period.  Seven of the last 13 favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

5/16—Truly Scrumptious (2 x good to firm – good – soft – good to soft)

 

6.10: Jeremy Noseda has saddled four winners at this corresponding meeting during the last four years and Jeremy’s Debut Doncaster winner QUIVERY will surely take the beating this evening.  EASTERN SUNRISE is the only rival who is standing up at all against the favourite who has been backed as if defeat is out of the question.  Doncaster layers were bitten several times where it hurts more before Jeremy’s filly won with plenty in hand at Town Moor.  Laurens would be an obvious threat if turned out again after winning at Doncaster last night but that scenario seems most unlikely.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.

 

6.40: Ryan Moore rode the first winner of this event for Sir Michael Stoute twelve months ago and the bandwagon rolls into town again with Michael’s Thirsk winner TIME’S ARROW.  Luca Cumani might be a little disappointed with the season by the high standards he has set down the years, though things seem to be turning in his favour now (five of his last eleven runners have won), whereby RIGOLETTO demands plenty of respect.  ANGEL DOWN is preferred to Turning Gold who looks to have plenty going for him, though any value in Sir Mark Prescott’s raider long since disappeared.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winners the third race:

1/1—Rigoletto (good to soft)

1/1—Angel Down (good to soft)

 

7.10: 13 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 8-8 or more though unfortunately, no 'edge' can be found on this occasion.  I am leaving the stats in for those of you who keep records.  This is a race for horses that have struggled for form of late, especially when compared to ‘yesteryear’ when several entries were more than paying for their keep in their respective stables.  I tend to look for younger horses in such races, hoping enthusiasm remains under the saddle, whereby my trio against the other six contenders consists of YALTA, WILLYTHECONQUEROR and ORNATE.

Favourite factor:  Six clear market leaders, two joint favourites and one co favourite have scored in the last 20 years.  16 of the 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions though it’s worth noting that four odds on favourites have been beaten in recent years.  The last 20 winners have all been returned in single figures (9/1 or less).

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Goldream (good to firm)

1/2—Monsieur Joe (good)

2/4—Tropics (good to firm & good to soft)

 

7.45: Three-year-olds have won six renewals during the last decade, with vintage representatives at 1/2 to improve the ratio still further before the form book is taken into account.  Many readers will latch on to the Stoute/Moore pairing again with PARTITIA, though whilst I feel duty bound to include Michael’s Bated Breath filly from a Placepot perspective, win money is locked away until she actually gets her head in front where it matters most.  Equally I would not back against her, whereby I will simply add RAVEN‘S LADY and David Barron’s northern raider CLON COULIS into the Placepot mix and move on.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last four contests with level stake potential £100 investors showing a profit of £833.33 during the period. That said, five barren years had been endured since the previous 5/2 market leader had prevailed.  Seven of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions during the period.

Record of the course winners the fifth race:

1/5—Guishan (soft)

1/3—Summer Chorus (good to firm)

1/2—Raven’s Lady (good to soft)

 

8.15: Like Jeremy Noseda (mentioned earlier) at the meeting, Charlie Appleby has saddled four winners at this fixture down the years and the popular handler appears to have a stranglehold on the Placepot finale, having declared both PRETTY ASSET and SONG BOOK.  It seems incomprehensible to think that both horses will finish out of the frame, though I will leave it up to you to pick the winner out.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural favourites secured a Placepot position by finishing second to the 9/2 winner.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Richard Hannon (3/32 – loss of 3 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/10 – loss of 3 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (7/25 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Andrew Balding (1/5 – Profit of 3 points)

2—David Barron (1/4 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Michael Bell (0/15)

2—Robert Cowell (0/3)

2—Ed Dunlop (3/12 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/3)

2—Phil McBride (0/6)

2—Mike Murphy (0/2)

2—Jeremy Noseda (1/5 – Profit of 2 points)

2—John Ryan (1/12 – loss of 5 points)

+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hamilton: £1,244.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Haydock: £127.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Newbury: £2,291.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Nottingham: £122.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Pontefract: £63.10 – 8 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday July 20

EPSOM - JULY 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £52.50 (8 favourites – 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 5 (Ravenhoe), 7 (Zaria) & 4 (Midnight Whistler)

Leg 2 (6.30): 3 (Dichato) & 4 (Doublet)

Leg 3 (7.00): 8 (Archer’s Arrow), 5 (Frank Bridge) & 3 (Handytalk)

Leg 4 (7.35): 6 (Sputnik Planum), 2 (Star Of Lombardy) & 1 (Sureness)

Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (War At Sea), 2 (First Up) & 1 (Thundering Blue)

Leg 6 (8.40): 7 (Lesanti) & 2 (Pinnata)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Epsom meeting – five year study:

30 races – 9 winning favourites – all 30 winners scored at a top price of 14/1.  The average Placepot dividend: £154.68 – Highest dividend: £435.20 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £18.50 (2013).

Best trainer record: Mark Johnston – 4 winners at 7/2, 3/1**, 15/8** & 7/4.

 

6.00: RAVENHOE is a typical Mark Johnston type who battles and tries as hard as he can on most occasions and with the trainer having ruled the roost at this meeting in recent years, Mark’s four-year-old is the first name on the team sheet.  ZARIA (good record at the track) would benefit if there is any pre-race rain in the Epsom area, whilst MIDNIGHT WHISTLER completes my trio against the field in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/1 favourite finished just out of the frame behind horses which were returned at 6/1, 9/2 & 7/1.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs)

1-4-9 (9 ran-good)

 

6.30: Mark Johnston is the first name in the frame again having saddled two of the last four winners of this juvenile event, with DOUBLET representing the yard this time around.  Finishing sixth on debut over course and distance a few weeks ago, Mark’s March foal was only beaten a couple of lengths and the experience gained over these undulations is an added bonus. Whether that ‘edge’ will be enough to overhaul DICHATO remains to be seen, especially with John Gosden having sent out his last two runners to winning effect, whilst John’s more detailed recent record stands at 4/12.

Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites (three being winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs – most recent renewal shown first):

3-5 (6 ran–good)

1-2 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-7-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

13-6-2 (12 ran-good)

2-3-1 (8 ran-good)

5-2-4 (9 ran-good)

 

7.00:  It’s a tad disappointing that the name of dual Derby winning trainer Arthur Budgett has been dropped from this event.  Arthur scored with Blakeney (1969) and Morston (1973) and aside from everything else, what set Arthur apart, is that the winners scored in Arthur's own colours on both occasions.  Trelawney was another favourite (as memory serves) of mine for this gentleman of the turf.  Back to modern day stats by informing that all eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and I expect the trend to continue with FRANK BRIDGE and HANDYTALK  having been declared to run from the ’superior’ sector of the weights in another 'dead eight' contest on the Epsom card.  I dislike backing against my trends but ARCHER’S ARROW makes plenty of appeal down the bottom of the handicap, especially with five pound claimer David Egan in the plate.  It’s worth noting that PP go out on a limb with Saeed Bin Suroor’s mount at 11/2 at the time of writing, with 9/2 looking to be a realistic offer, especially with the trainer boasting recent stats of 7/17.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame via eight renewals, statistics which include two successful market leaders and a further pair of joint favourites.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

6-8-4 (8 ran-good)

8-4-3 (8 ran-good)

2-6-5 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

7-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

7-11-4 (9 ran-good)

9-7-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4-3 (9 ran-good)

 

7.35: Handicap newcomer SPUTNIK PLANUM has been offered a decent enough mark to become competitive I’ll wager, whilst the form of trainer David Lanigan offers some encouragement.  Although ‘only’ two of his last seven runners have won, two more have secured silver medals during the period and in a race which might nor prove difficult to win, Tom Queally’s mount is offered the marginal call over STAR OF LOMBARDY and SURENESS.

Favourite factor: Contrasting results for the two favourites to date, with the inaugural 3/1 mark leader finishing nearer last than first before last year’s 1/2 hotpot evened up the score.

 

8.10: If you care to look at the favourite factor below, you might wonder why I am running scared of this event, especially given just five entries with rain falling freely here in the west of the country as I compile this column.  If any of the wet stuff travels in an easterly direction, we could well have a ‘win only’ scenario on our hands whereby three selections might still not be enough to get through to the Placepot finale!  In no order of preference (there is no order of preference), I’ll offer the tentative trio of WAR AT SEA, FIRST UP and THUNDERING BLUE and hope for the best.

Favourite factor: Only one of the five favourites have finished in the money and even then, the 1/2 chance could only muster a silver medal.  The four winners have been sent off at 14/1, 10/1, 6/1 & 4/1 thus far.

 

8.40: Tonight’s card is the perfect example of why you should look at the non-runner board before offering your Placepot wager.  The biggest single influence of a great dividend is when vulnerable favourites finish out of frame and this is especially important on days (potentially like this) when the units on withdrawn horses automatically get transferred on market leaders.  Ignore this golden Placepot rule at your peril.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that LESANTI and PINNATA should snare the dividend between them if of course, we were live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Epsom card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Mark Johnston (3/19 – Slight profit)

3—Pat Phelan (0/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (0/6)

2—Jim Boyle (0/3)

2—Mick Channon (0/2)

2—Paul Cole (0/1)

2—Richard Hannon (2/14 – loss of 6 points)

2—Stuart Williams (0/3)

+ 24 trainers who have one runner on the card

43 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £193.70 – 7 favourites--No winners – 5 placed – 2 unplaced

Doncaster: £115.70 – 6 favourites--2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Hamilton: £5.60 – 8 favourites--4 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Leicester: £28.30 – 6 favourites--2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday July 19th

SANDOWN - JULY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £45.10 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.05): 2 (Blitz), 3 (Tahoo) & 1 (Ascot Day)

Leg 2 (6.35): 7 (Simply Breathless), 1 (Cheeky Rascal) & 3 (Macaque)

Leg 3 (7.05): 3 (Harba) & 1 (Milton Jack)

Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Make Time), 4 (Selection) & 5 (Volatile)

Leg 5 (8.10): 4 (Sir Plato) & 2 (Eynhallow)

Leg 6 (8.40): 2 (Veiled Secret), 1 (Sussex Ranger) & 8 (Magic Beans)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.05: The first thing to point out is that there are no course winners involved at Sandown this evening, just in case you thought that I had forgotten to include such information!  Horses carrying a maximum burden of 9-4 have won five of the six renewals whilst claiming nine of the thirteen available toteplacepot positions stats which bring the top three runners in the handicap into play.  BLITZ and ASCOT DAY make the most appeal on this occasion, with TAHOO offered up as the overnight reserve.  Fair Cop is a decent filly but unless possible thundery showers arrive pre flag fall, the ground will be plenty lively enough for Andrew Balding’s Exceed And Excel representative.

Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites and finished in the frame, with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.

 

6.35: SIMPLY BREATHLESS gives Clive Cox (saddles Blitz in the opening event) a distinct possibility of landing a double on the first two races on the card.  It’s unusual for bookmakers to be in almost total agreement on every price for each runner but that is what I am witnessing this morning, with thunder crashing all around as I digest the 3/1 quote about the selection.  If these storms move in an easterly direction, you should look out for any going changes at Sandown before placing any best, that’s for sure.  CHEEKY RASCAL has to enter the equation following a fine effort after becoming unbalanced at Epsom, doing all his best work late doors in that event over this trip.  MACAQUE is entitled to improve a great deal for his Salisbury debut.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

 

7.05: It’s about time I offered some stats for the meeting based on the last five years.  The average Placepot dividend paid £152.72, whilst 14 favourites have won via 30 races during the study period.  26/30 gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 12/1.  Just ‘six spots‘ separate the top nine horses (of 14 in total) in this Class 5 three-year-old contest, though two of those runners drop into the lower section of the handicap via jockey claims.  William Haggas appears to have placed his Frankel filly HARBA to good effect here in a race which should not prove difficult to win, especially if the storms swerve the Esher area.  MILBURN JACK completes the three runners on the card for Clive Cox and it’s difficult to imagine the popular trainer going home empty handed from the meeting.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (2/1 & 5/1**) winners.

 

7.40: Three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 via six contests to date, whilst the juniors have edged in front 6-5 in terms of securing Placepot positions.   MAKE TIME appears to be the pick of the junior representatives on this occasion though if a muddling pace ensues, don’t be surprised if fellow three-year-old VOLATILE outruns his price in this five runner affair.  Four-year-old SELECTION demands plenty of respect and enters the Placepot equation for sure.

Favourite factor: All six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions with three gold medals having been secured thus far.

 

8.10: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-1 have secured all 13 available toteplacepot positions, though the trend is of no use this time around with all nine runners have been allotted 9-2 or more.  That said, the bottom horse in the handicap is set to be ridden by a claiming pilot whereby we only have to assess 8/9 entries this time around.  Rod Millman is the only trainer to have saddled more than one winner at this meeting during the last five years and his only possible runner at the weekend was SIR PLATO.  Having saddled a winner under the other code at Worcester last night, Rod will be in a joyous mood if he can notch a double within 24 hours.  Others from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap to consider include OKOOL and EYNHALLOW who might prove difficult to beat if the ground eases a fraction.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five market leaders have finished in the frame, one of which won its respective event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites.

 

8.40: Sir Mark Prescott earns plenty of respect in these staying events, especially in the three-year-old sector.  VEILED SECRET has the look of a typical successful Prescott raid, with connections possibly only having to fear SUSSEX RANGER and the each way alternative option MAGIC BEANS in the Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have ‘troubled the judge’ though the only two (Even money & 8/11) winners during the period mean that favourites come into the Placepot finale on a hat trick.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Clive Cox (2/14 – Profit of 12 points)

3—Richard Hannon (3/33 – loss of 20 points)

3—Richard Hughes (0/5)

2—Andrew Balding (0/11)

2—John Best (0/3)

2—Karl Burke (3/5 – Profit of 26 points)

2—Robert Cowell (0/2)

2—John Gallagher (0/3)

2—William Haggas (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

2—William Muir (0/2)

2—Pat Phelan (0/2)

2—Ed Walker (0/2)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £17.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Yarmouth: £39,448.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 placed

Lingfield (mix of Turf & A/W): £117.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £310.30 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday July 18

BEVERLEY - JULY 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £8.70 (6 favourites - 1 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Geesala Brave), 4 (Tember) & 9 (Ben My Chree)

Leg 2 (2.45): 8 (Dandy’s Beano), 5 (Jamie’s Joy) & 2 (Roundhay Park)

Leg 3 (3.15): 3 (Roaring Rory), 1 (Sarabi) & 14 (Joysunny)

Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (La Frittilaire), 4 (Corpus Chorister) & 6 (Waterclock)

Leg 5 (4.15): 9 (George Reme), 11 (Keepup Kevin) & 13 (Traveltalk)

Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Lord Reason)

Suggested stake: 243 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.15: If you ask how many winners John Quinn averages with his juveniles I doubt many would give the correct answer of nine (over the course of the last five years) whereby I have more confidence in his Arcano colt GEESALA BRAVE than was the case before I looked up the ratios.  There is money around for Jason Hart’s mount in the dead of night and with John being amongst the winners of late, I’ll opt for the April foal.  Bryan Smart has sent his last 19 runners to post without greeting any of them in the circle reserved for winners, which tempers enthusiasm regarding his BEN MY CHREE to a fashion. That can’t be said about David Barron who has scored with two of his last seven raiders.  David’s representative TEMBER could put vital racecourse experience to winning effect in a relatively weak contest.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the card and the divisions of a new contest with which to open proceedings.

 

2.45: JAMIE’S JOY was staying on at the first time of asking and as Tony Coyle has won with two of his nine juveniles this year, the 22/1 quote (in a place) makes for interesting each way/Placepot reading.  Tony’s ratio comes nicely packaged with a level stake profit of 31 points in this sector and after sending a 10/1 winner over to Ireland at the weekend, Tony won’t be listening to bookies relating to the chance of his Sleeping Indian colt.  I grant you that more logical winners in the field might include ROUNDHAY PARK and (possibly) DANDY’S BEANO but the price differential does not make a great deal of sense at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race.

 

3.15: Layers seem to want to keep course and distance winner ROARING RORY ‘onside here’ with none of main firms offering more than 5/1 about the Ollie Pears raider.  Seven pound claimer Seamus Cronin rode his first winner up at Ayr yesterday whereby there will be confidence from the saddle now that Seamus has broken through the maiden ranks!  David Allan (SARABI) has won on four of his last twelve mounts and prices all come alike to this underrated pilot, David having secured 19 points of level stake profit during the period.  If you are looking for a complete outsider, you do worse than consider the merits of JOYSUNNY who Bet365 are taking seriously, given their skinny 9/1 quote as I write this column, compared to 14/1 which is freely available across the board.  That price is till interesting given the 20/1 mark up by the trade press lads and lasses when chalking up their odds.  Mick ‘transferred’ his Camacho filly to Jacqueline Coward recently whilst retaining ownership, whereby there is probably a story to listen to, and few tell stories like Mick!  JOYSUNNY ran down the field the other day, though it’s worth noting that Jacqueline’s previous runner won at Epsom last week.

Favourite factor: Four of the last 19 favourites have won, whilst eight other ‘jollies’ have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/5—Roaring Rory (good to firm)

1/1—Mr Strutter (good)

1/20—Tinsili (good)

1/7—George Bialey (good to firm)

 

3.45: 14/1 (available in a couple of places at the time of writing) about WATERCLOCK makes a little each way appeal about the horse which won this event two years ago, though the eight-year-old does not seem to be force of old, even in this grade.  LA FRITTILAIRE and CORPUS CHORISTER are arguably more logical winners in the field, though the morning prices reflect that scenario.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged in the last 18 years.  Only five of the other favourites during the study period claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/3—Waterclock (good to firm)

 

4.15: Only six pounds separate 11 of the 13 runners (taking a claim into account relating to the top weight) as is often the case in run of the mill mixed vintage handicaps. My (value for money) attention is drawn to the trio of three-year-olds in the field, namely GEORGE REME, KEEPUP KEVIN and TRAVELTALK in a wide open contest.  If the junior raiders are not up to the task this time around, TADAAWOL could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially with Roger Fell’s runners going so well just now.

Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions by winning their respective event to date at odds of 5/2, 9/4 & 11/8.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

5/15—Talent Scout (5 x good to firm)

4/27—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)

 

4.45: 15 of the 20 horses which have secured toteplacepot positions carried weights of 9-5 or more, stats which includes all eight winners.  Couple that scenario alongside the fact the five-year-olds have won four of the eight contests and LORD REASON jumps off the page from my viewpoint, despite the recent four pound hike for winning his third race in eight starts for the bang in form yard of John Butler.  LORD REASON has gained those victories under different ground conditions, having finished in the frame (exact science) on six of his nine assignments since changing stables.  Ranging between 5/1 and 7/1 this morning, I would not like to offer ‘the edge’ to punters from an each way perspective.  Talking of odds, John Butler’s current strike rate of 20.3% via his last 11 winners comes with a healthy level stake profit of 65 points attached!  Our good friend ‘Tony Mac’ will be pleased with the (dead eight) turn out for his race and I rate BIG TIME DANCER as the main danger to the selection.

Favourite factor:  Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, whilst six years have slipped by since the last of the two successful favourites scored.  That said, all eight winners have scored at a top price of just 5/1.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Mon Beau Rivage (good)

3/21—Make On Madam (2 x good & good to firm)

1/1—Big Time Dancer (good to firm)

Trainer stats for July (both codes) relating to runners in this (‘Tony Mac’) event:

8/81—David O’Meara (-15 to level stakes) – Mon Beau Rivage & Pumaflor

5/41—John Quinn (-14) – Worlds His Oyster

5/18—John Butler (+33) – Lord Reason

0/10—Les Eyre – Make On Madam

6/43—Brian Ellison (-14) – Big Time Dancer

21/125—Mark Johnston (-13) – Valley Of Rocks

0/15—Ollie Pears – Mont Royal

Mal’s 1-2-3 – Lord Reason – Big Time Dancer – Valley Of Rocks

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David O’Meara (3/38 – loss of 19 points)

5—John Quinn (2/10 – Profit of 1 point)

5—Ollie Pears (2/15 – Profit of 27 points)

4—Brian Ellison (0/12)

3—David Brown (0/1)

3—Tim Easterby (2/42 – loss of 33 points)

3—Les Eyre (1/10 – loss of 3 points)

3—Richard Fahey (10/43 – Slight profit)

3—Nigel Tinkler (0/19)

2—Scott Dixon (1/9 – loss of 3 points)

2—Mick Easterby (0/7)

2—Julia Feilden (No previous runners this season)

2—Roger Fell (1/13 – loss of 10 points)

2—Suzanne France (No previous runners)

2—Mark Johnston (7/35 (Profit of 8 points)

2—Paul Midgley (0/12)

2—Kevin Ryan (2/18 – loss of 2 points)

2—Pam Sly (No previous runners)

2—Bryan Smart (1/12 – loss of 3 points)

2—Karen Tutty (3/12 – Profit of 28 points)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

85 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £421.60 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £145.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Worcester: £357.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Monday July 17

WINDSOR - JULY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £82.40 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Russian Regard), 14 (Epsom Secret), 3 (Secret Soul) & 15 (Neptune Star)

Leg 2 (6.20): 1 (Airshow), 6 (Awesometank) & 3 (Expecting)

Leg 3 (6.50): 7 (Zyzzyva) & 2 (Expelled)

Leg 4 (7.20): 7 (Super Julius) & 4 (Dark Shot)

Leg 5 (7.50): 2 (Blushing Rose) & 4 (Canberra Cliffs)

Leg 6 (8.20): 3 (Hollywood Road), 2 (Celebration Day) & 8 (Ogbourne Downs)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.50: Whilst stall ten (of fifteen in total) is not an ideal draw at Windsor on fast ground, this is not a sprint race whereby Jonathan Portman’s Intense Focus gelding RUSSIAN REGARD is offered up as a sporting option with a seven pound claimer in the plate who has already ridden three winners for the relevant trainer.  Most firms (except PP) have swerved too much of an each way liability about EPSOM SECRET (11/2 thereabouts), whilst SECRET SOUL will be a popular raider from Ralph Becket’s yard with the trainer turning out quite a few winners of late.  Mick Easterby sneaks one in at the bottom of the weights, whereby it would come as no surprise to witness his three-year-old raider NEPTUNE STAR figuring prominently at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/9—Megalala (soft)

 

6.20: Each way money has been coming in for AIRSHOW with none of the leading bookmakers willing to offer a fraction over the 5/1 (bet to nothing) win and place option for Rod Millman’s representative.  Rod’s Showcasing gelding is looking to go one better for connections after two recent silver medals efforts, with AWESOMETANK and EXPECTING fairly obvious dangers representing the powerful years of William Haggas and Charlie Hills respectively.  Trap one gives Adam Kirby the chance to kick from the gate aboard AIRSHOW and if the two main rivals offer too much of an easy lead out front, AIRSHOW could score without seeing another rival.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last nine renewals during which time, six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

 

6.50: Was it the seven pound penalty that stopped RUNNING CLOUD in his tracks last week when tackling his first turf assignment, or perhaps the easy ground at Salisbury that brought about his downfall?  Either way, the concession of seven pounds to ZYZZYVA (trap one) could prove too much of an ask, whilst EXPELLED is another newcomer to take seriously, especially as at the time of writing, James Fanshawe’s Exceed And Excel colt was not drifting in the market, which can be the case the yard’s unraced juveniles.  Stall two gives Daniel Muscutt’s mount a chance if good enough at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders (5/2-8/11-4/9) have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

7.20: I would not take 6/4 about DARK SHOT on ground which will be plenty fast enough for Andrew Balding consistent raider though that said, it’s impossible to leave the four-year-old out of the Placepot mix.  Eve Johnson Houghton’s progressive junior raider SUPER JULIUS is feared most with a three pound rise for a recent Brighton win hardly disturbing the sleep patterns of connections.  The only scenario which could stop such people from sleeping well tonight could be attributed to continued celebrations as the Bated Breath raider seeks a hat trick on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This Class 3 sprint series event is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Spring Loaded (good)

1/1—Stepper Point (good to firm)

1/4—Dark Shot (soft)

1/4—Musical Comedy (good to soft)

 

7.50:  Three-year-olds have claimed fourteen victories during the last nineteen years, albeit three of those vintage representatives were involved in two dead heat scenarios during the study period.  Seven junior representatives are involved on this occasion, with BLUSHING ROSE and CANBERRA CLIFFS standing out from the crowd at first light this morning.  It’s about time (in all honesty) that Sir Michael Stoute’s raiders starting showing consistent form and with a 35/1 double under his belt from Saturday, Michael (BLUSHING ROSE) aims at building on five winners during the last eight days.  Lesser trainers would be happy with that type of ratio, though Michael has set standards in the past that few could match and plenty of gold medallists before Glorious Goodwood would be welcomed a few weeks before we all head south for five wonderful days of sport.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won, whilst 13 of the 23 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—High On Love (good to firm)

1/1—Sayem (good to soft)

 

8.20: CELEBRATION DAY and OGBOURNE DOWNS are two each way options to consider against HOLLYWOOD ROAD in the last leg of our favourite wager.  Don Cantillon (HOLLYWOOD ROAD) boasts definite claims of a double in the final two contests, having saddled Canberra Cliffs in the penultimate race on the card.  Don’s only Windsor runner at Windsor this season won at 9/2 and sure enough, ‘HR’ was the horse in question when scoring under fast conditions.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 favourites favourite found one too good from a win perspective when securing a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Hollywood Road (good to firm)

2/6—Ogbourne Downs (2 x good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Eve Johnson Houghton (2/18 – loss of 10 points)

3—Andrew Balding (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—Charlie Hills (2/16 – loss of 6 points)

2—Don Cantillon (1/1 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Robert Eddery (0/6)

2—Ron Harris (1/7 – Profit of 19 points)

2—Richard Hughes (3/28 – loss of 8 points)

2—Dean Ivory (1/23 – loss of 12 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/2)

2—Brendan Powell (1/13 – level profit/loss on the season)

2—William Muir (1/14 – loss of 8 points)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £804.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Ffos Las: This is a new meeting

Wolverhampton: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday July 16

STRATFORD - JULY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £72.60 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Stratford: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 7 (The Raven Master) & 9 (Lucky Esteem)

Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Zama Zama), 8 (Raising Hope) & 6 (Shaiyzar)

Leg 3 (3.15): 4 (Free Stone Hill), 1 (St Saviour) & 3 (Our Three Sons)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Bestwork), 1 (In On The Act) & 9 (Accessallareas)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Play The Ace), 2 (Set List) & 3 (Danandy)

Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Dear Sir) & 5 (Rebel Yeats)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page:

 

2.10: The race planners have had their fun and games again of late, with this being the first NH fixture since last Tuesday. Umpteen meetings had been staged during the previous fortnight which makes this recent gap all the more bizarre! Upward and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that THE RAVEN MASTER has claims here, despite only reaching a moderate mark of 65 on the level.  The fact that Dan Skelton has taken possession of Michael Bell’s Raven’s Pass colt says volumes about his potential I guess and with Dan boasting a 40% strike rate via his last six winners (what’s new), Harry’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  MAURICIO might find the ground plenty quick enough after winning on soft ground in Ireland, whilst LUCKY ESTEEM has his first run for Neil Mulholland having left Mark Johnston’s yard.

Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (four winners) but with two 33/1 winners recorded in the last twelve years alongside the 20/1 gold medallist six years ago, readers are advised to tread carefully.  These are the same words as written eight years ago when the 4/11 market leader could only scrape into the frame in third place.

 

2.40: Last year’s 7/1 winner was described by yours truly as having been well placed in a race which was there for the taking; and so it proved.  Whether we shall be so fortunate this time around is another matter entirely, though course winner ZAMA ZAMA looks to offer some value for money at around the 10/1 mark at the overnight stage.  Trainer Evan Williams has saddled more winners at this meeting over the last five years than any other handler for good measure.  Others for the Placepot mix include RAISING HOPE and SHAIYZAR.

Favourite factor:  The inaugural 6/4 favourite snared a Placepot position by finishing second in a 'short field' contest two years ago.  Two of the three 7/1 co favourites followed suit last year, stats which included the winner of the sixteen runner contest.  New readers might want to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Record of course winners in the second race:

2/4—Zama Zama (2 x good)

2/2—Sgt Bull Berry (2 x good)

 

3.15: The danger of taking too much for granted here is the worry of a non runner encroaching into the equation which would bring about a ‘win only’ scenario.  That said, FREE STONE HILL, ST SAVIOUR and OUR THREE SONS (the three course winners) should see us safely through to the halfway stage, whatever occurs pre flag fall.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites thus far snared a Placepot position without winning its respective event.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—St Saviour (good)

1/2—Our Three Sons (good)

1/1—Free Stone Hill (good)

 

3.50: ACCESSALLAREAS was mentioned as one of the potential dangers when winning this event at 11/1 twelve months ago.  The twelve-year-old might be hard pushed to score again though that said, a Placepot position cannot be ruled out of the equation.  Arguably, more logical winners include BESTWORK and another Evan Williams runner on the card, namely IN ON THE ACT.

Favourite factor: All three favourites (via two renewals) had finished out with the washing before the 7/4 market leader snared the silver medal three years ago.  The has race reverted to type these last two years with the 11/4 and 7/4 favourites finishing out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/3—In On The Act (good)

1/3—Deise Vu (good)

1/5—Cold Knight (good)

1/5—Accessallareas (good)

1/3—Next Exit (good)

 

4.20: Coincidences crop up in racing all the time, albeit I tend to refer to lots of them as ‘trends’ of course.  That can’t be said for the fact that the last time that DANANDY was on a racecourse, Alan King’s raider finished second to an Emma Lavelle trainer winner and here we are again, with Emma having declared SET LIST to run.  Danandy’s event was over twenty one months ago and it would be a great tribute to Alan’s talents if his ten-year-old could record his sixth win, albeit in a moderate event.  PLAY THE ACE is an interesting runner if only because Peter Bowen’s raider is the only stable representative anywhere on Sunday.  That is particularly significant with the trainer in form, whilst having saddled as many winners as anyone else at Perth’s corresponding meeting on Sunday in recent years, which Peter has swerved.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Stratford card

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2—Set List (good)

2/3—Danandy (good & soft)

2/3—Play The Ace (2 x good)

 

4.55: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals of the toteplacepot finale, with four vintage representatives expected to improve the ratio further still with just two rivals to beat.  DEAR SIRE and REBEL YEATS look to have the race between them.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals, statistics which include seven winners.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Stratford card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Dan Skelton (4/18 – loss of 2 points)

2—John Cornwall (No runners)

2—Gavin Cromwell (No previous runners)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/3)

2—Donald McCain (1/2 – Slight profit)

2—Gary Moore (0/1)

2—Neil Mulholland (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/1)

2—Dr Richard Newland (1/3 – loss of 1 point)

2—Jackie Du Plessis (0/2)

2—Lucinda Russell (No runners)

2—Matt Sheppard (0/2)

2—Jamie Snowdon (0/1)

2—David Thompson (No previous runners)

2—Tom Weston (No previous runners)

2—Evan Williams (0/3)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Perth: £53.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Southwell (NH): £213.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday July 15

NEWMARKET - JULY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £29.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 11 (Sizzling) & 7 (Poetic Charm)

Leg 2 (2.15): 7 (Cheval Blanche), 8 (Tropical Rock) & 3 (Gymnaste)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (City Of Joy), 1 (Masham Star) & 7 (Maths Prize)

Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Bossy Guest), 2 (Buckstay), 3 (Tashweeq), 14 (Sir Dancealot) & 15 (Withernsea)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (Gustav Klimt) & 3 (Etefaaq)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Caravaggio) & 7 (The Tin Man)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: Aidan O’Brien’s record of 2/4 at the meeting this week is backed up by a 10/1 runner up which points the way to SIZZLING in the opening event, a contest Aidan won two years ago.  Only Charlie Appleby has saddled more winners on the July course this week (3/12 – see all the stats below) whereby his Dubawi filly POETIC CHARM is taken as the principle danger, especially as the filly holds an entry in an Irish Group 1 race later in the year.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

2.15: 18 of the last 20 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (9/10 qualify) from my viewpoint are CHEVAL BLANCHE, TROPICAL ROCK and GYMNASTE.  That said, I’m sure there will be worse outsiders on the card than MARIE OF LYON who looks overpriced at around 18/1 at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 20 years, whilst 14/26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

2.50: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried 9-1 or more and it's worth noting that just 16 'qualifiers' have run in total via the last four contests to produce decent priced winners at 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around, with the pin coming down on the side of CITY OF JOY, MASHAM STAR and EXECUTIVE FORCE via the relevant quintet.  Of the horses below the ‘superior weight barrier’, MATHS PRIZE appears to be the value for money option.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last eighteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.25: The last nine winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 21 of the last 23 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Although this scenario ‘only‘ eliminates nine (possibly eleven via claims) of the 20 declarations, all assistance is required in trying to track down the winner of the Bunbury Cup, as ever was the case.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, whilst five-year-olds have 'dominated' of late, snaring four of the last six contests. My quartet against the field take into account the facts and stats are BOSSY GUEST, BUCKSTAY (joint favourite for race last year), TASHWEEQ and WITHERNSEA in the Placepot mix.  That said, I will probably have an each way saver (single) on VON BLUCHER at 33/1 (thereabouts), albeit the ex-John Gosden raider carries sixteen ounces less than what the weight trend recommends.  There is no way that the four-year-old would have been priced up at those odds if John still trained the course winner and I would not be surprised if P J McDonald’s mount figured prominently.  SIR DANCEALOT could outrun his price to reward each way investors too.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on nine occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame,

Record of course winners in the ‘Bunbury Cup:

1/4—Buckstay (good to firm)

1/1—Tashweeq (good to soft)

1/5—Bossy Guest (good to firm)

1/1—Boomshackerlacker (soft)

1/2—Von Blucher (good to firm)

1/1—Robero (good)

 

4.00:  'Team Hannon' have saddled five of the last sixteen winners of this race which is named after the 1983 July Stakes winner Superlative.  Richard saddles ETEFAAQ this time around, albeit Aidan’s O’Brien’s Curragh winner GUSTAV KLIMT will probably take the beating.  You can certainly ignore the 7/4 quote in the trade press about the favourite who might get close to even money by the time that flag fall arrives.  Aidan’s juveniles have run well at the meeting thss far and his Galielo colt is expected to go one better than his beaten favourite last year who ran behind a 7/1 winner trainer by Charlie Appleby who saddles AQABAH this time around.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the Superlative Stakes:

1/1—Etefaaq (good to soft)

 

4.35: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn, as was the case for a good while until last year.  I readily admit that the last couple of renewals have now looked like the real deal and in CARRAVAGIO we have a storm trooper who has that rare quality of speed and fortitude/resilience, call it what you like.  Unbeaten thus far following six assignments, it might need an off day to beat him, rather than any of his rivals, albeit they are a decent group of thoroughbreds and no mistake.  LIMATO is good on his day (won this race last year) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereas I am sick and tired of THE TIN MAN proving me wrong on so many occasions!

Favourite factor: Ten of the last 15 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 15 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Limato (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday followed by their stats at the July meeting this week:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/9)

5—Mark Johnston (1/8 – winner at 8/1)

4—Charlie Appleby (3/12 – winners at 9/2, 7/2 & 11.10*)

4—John Gosden (1/11 – winner at 9/4*)

4—Richard Hannon (1/12 – winner at 13/2)

4—Aidan O’Brien (2/5 – winners at 6/4* & 11/8*)

3—Michael Bell (0/3)

3—Mick Channon (0/1)

3—William Haggas (0/2)

2—Karl Burke (No previous runners this week)

2—Ed Dunlop (1/2 – winner at 7/1)

2—Mick Easterby (No previous runners this week)

2—Charlie Hills (0/6)

2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this week)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/5)

2—George Peckham (No previous runners this week)

2—Kevin Ryan (0/2)

Trainers with 1 runner on Saturday who have saddled a winner this week:

1/1—Hughie Morrison (11/4)

1/2—Jeremy Noseda (6/1)

1/5—Roger Varian (13/2)

+ 31 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on Saturday’s card

85 declared runners

For the record, three other trainers have saddled one winner each (all from three opportunities) but are not represented at Newmarket today, namely Andrew Balding (7/1), Brian Meehan (7/2) & Stuart Williams (7/1) = total of 15 winners at Newmarket this week going into today’s final day

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £41.70 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Chester: £22.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: £16.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Salisbury: £122.60 – 6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

York: £448.90 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 14

NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) - JULY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £4,871.50 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Fawaareq), 8 (Parfait), 7 (Swift Approval) & 17 (Ripoli)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Clemmie) & 8 (Out Of The Flames)

Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Titi Makfi), 7 (Monticello) & 9 (Oasis Charm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Wuheida) & 5 (Roly Poly)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Gold Town), 2 (Starlight Mystery), 11 (Merchant Marine) & 9 (Arabian Jazz)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Being There) & 10 (Rastrelli)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Course winners are few and far between in the other races at Newmarket today but three of the six relevant runners here are worth a second glance.  PARFAIT is the most obvious contender I guess for John Gosden, though all eight of his runners were beaten at the venue yesterday on a day in which the trainer has done well in recent years.  PARFAIT cannot be left out of the Placepot mix, though I am wondering if any value for money long since disappeared relating to William Buick’s mount.  FAWEEREQ boasts a 2/2 ratio and having won under opposite conditions whereby connections have no worries on account of the ground.  SWIFT APPROVAL beat just nine rivals in the contest last year when trained by Kevin Ryan, though he has yet to prove himself for the Stuart Williams team.  That said, Stuart saddled a winner here yesterday and the trainer has never been frightened of running horses that are seemingly up against superior rivals.  Running off the same mark as last year, SWIFT APPROVAL is arguably worth a small saver at around the 20/1 mark.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than RIPOLI I’ll wager, even though Sylvester Kirk’s four time A/W winner has yet to open his account on turf.  The strength of his three Kempton wins make the current 25/1 mark look attractive from an each way perspective.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites to date won its respective contest at 5/1 before last year’s 11/4 market leader finished out with the washing.

Course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Makzeem (good to soft)

2/2—Fawaareq (good to firm & soft)

1/4—Gunmetal (good to soft)

1/1—Swift Approval (good to firm)

1/1—Parfait (good)

2/5—Majestic Moon (2 x good to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that ‘Team Hannon‘ is the only training establishment to have saddled three winners of this event during the last thirteen years and saddling the Queen Mary bronze medallist OUT OF THE FLAMES gives Richard a sporting chance of landing another victory on behalf of the stable.  Time could prove that finishing three lengths adrift of Heartache at Royal Ascot was a fine effort.  William Buick was quoted as saying that Heartache was a ‘class apart’ from the other juvenile winners at Ascot this year and OUT OF THE FLAMES could add weight to William’s argument.  CLEMMIE disappointed at Ascot a few weeks back but came bouncing back to form via a Group 3 victory and this one grade hike might not be beyond Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo filly.  Roly Poly took a similar route to the circle reserved for the winner in last year’s race for the yard and lightning could strike twice this afternoon to leave Irish eyes smiling.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the last seventeen favourites have won whilst 15/22 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has won the last four renewals and in TITI MAKFI and MONTCELLO, Mark has definite claims of saddling his sixth winner of the race within the last 11 years.  The pair are listed in order of preference, though there may not be a great deal of daylight between the stable companions at the jamstick.  If Mark is to be denied another success, OASIS CHARM could prove to be the joker in the pack with Charlie Appleby’s team in great form just now.  That said, when are Charlie’s runners anything but prominent on the racecourse?  The weight concession is against Leshlaa who is overlooked accordingly, though I still expect to Godolphin raider to run well.

Favourite factor: 10 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last 10 gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won 10 of the last 20 renewals of this Group 1 event and the junior course winners look to have a firm grip on the contest this time around.  ROLY POLY is as tough as teak and not many fillies would want to get into street battle with Aidan O’Brien’s raider who won the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on the corresponding card twelve months ago.  That said, Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi filly WUHEIDA could yet be anything, given that she is a winner of her two races to date, her second success coming in the Group 1 ‘Marcel Boussac’ last back end.  If she can turn Roly Poly over here on her seasonal debut, the sky could literally be the limit for William Buick’s mount.

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Falmouth Stakes:

1/1—Roly Poly (good to firm)

1/1—Wuheida (good to firm)

 

4.10: Six of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones in this two-year-old handicap contest, albeit I am little hesitant in dismissing the chances of GOLD TOWN and SRTARLIGHT MYSTERY from the 'inferior' sector of the weights, especially as more recent renewals have gone the way of horses higher up the handicap.  Indeed, three of the last four winners have carried 9-5 or more which supports my argument in nominating the top pair in my Placepot mix.  Ralph Beckett saddled last year’s winner and his Epaulette colt MERCHANT MARINE in not without place claims, arguably alongside ARABIAN JAZZ.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the 14 market leaders have reached the frame (six winners) in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager.  Although market leaders have won six of the twelve renewals to date, five of the last ten gold medallists were returned at 16/1-12/1-8/1-8/1-11/2.

 

4.45:  Six of the last 13 renewals have fallen the way of market leaders in a race which has produced plenty of decent winners in the past.  From a Placepot perspective, Charlie Appleby looks to have this contested all wrapped with a pretty bow given that BEING THERE will surely take a great deal of kicking out of the frame following a highly promising debut.  Add his expensive breeze-up newcomer RASTRELLI into the equation and we should be able to spend the rest of the afternoon in the bar.  Perhaps later in the day you could look up the film Being There and finish off Friday by watching the truly superb performance of Peter Sellers in a captivating movie (imo).

Favourite factor:  Eight clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  13/24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just eight Placepot positions via 116 representatives during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Friday + ‘scoresheet’ from Day 1 at Newmarket July meeting!

7 runners—Charlie Appleby (2/6 on the 1st day at 7/2 & 9/2 = 23/1 double)

6—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Richard Fahey (0/5)

4—Charlie Hills (0/2)

4—Mark Johnston (1/4 - winner at 8/1)

3—John Gosden (0/8)

3—John Quinn (No runners yesterday)

3—Saeed Bin Suroor (0/1)

3—Stuart Williams (winner at 7/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (No runners yesterday)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Simon Crisford (No runners yesterday)

2—Luca Cumani (No runners yesterday)

2—Robert Cowell (0/1)

2—Jim Goldie (No runners yesterday)

2—William Haggas (No runners yesterday)

2—Stan Moore (No runners yesterday)

2—Jeremy Noseda (No runners yesterday)

2—Aidan O’Brien (0/2)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—Ian Williams (No winners yesterday)

1 runner today—Andrew Balding (1/2 yesterday - winner at 7/1)

1 runner today—Brian Meehan (1/2 yesterday – winner at 7/2

+ 25 different other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £152.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chepstow: £4,779.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Musselburgh: £276.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £573.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced