Placepot Pointers – Saturday 18th November

CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 18

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,898.00 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 4 (Gumball) & 6 (Apple’s Shakira)

Leg 2 (1.15): 1 (Ballyoptic), 3 (West Approach) & 2 (Black Corton)

Leg 3 (1.50): 6 (Premier Bond), 5 (Three Faces West) & 7 (Doing Fine)

Leg 4 (2.25): 10 (Starchitect), 1 (Kylemore Lough), 7 (Foxtail Hill) & 12 (Aqua Dude)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Rocky’s Treasure) & 6 (Kk Lexion)

Leg 6 (3.30): 8 (Poker Play), 5 (Red Indian) & 14 (Coup De Princeau)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Philip Hobbs has won this event on the last two occasions when represented and with five winners to his name at the corresponding Saturday Cheltenham meeting during the last six years, Philip appears to have found a great opportunity for GUMBALL to continue a fine start to his career.  Philip’s winner last year went on to win the ‘Triumph’ at the festival and this is the official trial for that race at this stage of the season.  APPLE’S SHAKIRA rates as a definite threat in receipt of seven pounds, a concession that might ask a serious question of GUMBALL.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include eight winners.

 

1.15: This is more of a competitive feature (despite only three runners having been declared) than was the case last year when Thistlecrack frightened off any serious challengers.  The old adage of backing the ‘outsider of three’ has some attraction here with Paul Nicholls having dominated the Saturday fixture down the years, notwithstanding the fact that BLACK CORTON is the only course winner in the line up.  WEST APPROACH receives three pounds from BALLYOPTIC which should bring the pair close together and one way another my friends, tens of thousands of Placepot units will be blown out of the water here, irrespective of the result.  One of the media ‘experts’ recently said that if you backed the outsider of three in every relevant race, that you would go skint very quickly in his own inimitable style.  In my recent video, I suggested that ‘media’ types were too lazy to back up what they said with actual facts and this is a case in point.  Off the cuff remarks like this are ‘throwaway lines’ that have no place in the sport from my viewpoint.  The comment might (I repeat might) be accurate, but that’s not the point. I will offer the real stats regarding the ‘outsider of three’ issue such as soon as I get some time.  Another casual remark this week was that Tim Easterby had his team in “great form”.  Out of interest, Tim’s latest ratio stands at 8/129 under both codes, offering a level stake loss of 75 points. I rest my case.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the last twenty years, though just five of the other eleven market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Black Corton (good)

 

1.50: 17 of the last 18 winners have carried weights of 11-6 or less, whilst 13 of those gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 10-13.  Seven year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 5-2 via the last seven renewals and putting the stats and facts together, only PREMIER BOND possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes.  THREE FACES WEST and DOING FINE stand out from the crowd via lowly weighted horses and are added into the Placepot mix accordingly.  The reserve nomination is awarded to PERFECT CANDIDATE.  Minella Rocco was the beaten (11/2) favourite in the race last year and for all that his runner up effort in the Gold Cup stands him in good stead, he is not one to rely on I’ll wager, especially with plenty of moisture underfoot.  Trainers and jockeys were suggesting that yesterday’s official ground of good to soft was ‘generous’ to say the least, quotes which were proven by the recorded times of the races.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have snared gold of late alongside one co favourite, whilst 13 of the 24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/5—Minella Rocco (good to soft)

2/11—Perfect Candidate (good & heavy)

2/5—Vicente (good & good to soft)

1/4—Doing Fine (good)

 

2.25: Six and seven-year-olds have claimed 11 of the last 14 renewals of this BetVictor Gold Cup (seven-year-olds lead 8-3 during the relevant period), whilst vintage representatives have secured an additional 18 toteplacepot positions in the process. 11 of the last 15 gold medallists carried a maximum weight of 11-2, whilst the Pond House (David and Martin Pipe) team has claimed eight of the last 18 contests.  Putting the facts and stats together suggests that the likes of STARCHITECT and AQUA DUDE are the each way plays in the contest. That said, KYLEMORE LOUGH has been laid out for this event for some considerable time, whilst FOXTAIL HILL could lead this field a merry dance from the front and they will have to get to him on the turn for home as I doubt that Colin Tizzard’s raider will be coming back to them!  Tully East will attract plenty of support I guess, though Irish trained runners have secured just one renewal (2009) since they previously scored 37 years ago.  For the record, there will be worse 40/1 chance on the card than Splash Of Ginge I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 18 years, whilst 10 market leaders finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the feature race:

1/3—Le Prezien (soft)

1/1—Double Treasure (good)

1/3—Viconte Du Noyer (good to soft)

1/2—Tully East (good to soft)

2/5—Foxtail Hill (good & soft)

2/5—Ballyalton (good & good to soft)

1/1—Plaisir D’Amour (good)

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2/10—Splash Of Ginge (good to soft & soft)

 

3.00: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last fifteen renewals of this event, whilst claiming an additional nine toteplacepot positions in the process. The last eighteen winners have carried weights of 11-2 or less and putting the stats and facts together four years ago led to your truly making a case out for the 20/1 winner Return Spring.  The following 9/2 winner Katkeau was also short listed and this year's main focus centres on ROCKY’S TREASURE and KK LEXION.  Last year’s 20/1 soft ground winner Anteros has been nibbled at on the exchanges overnight which makes for interesting reading, possibly on account of the ground which will have offered connections hope on Friday.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders (all within the last thirteen years) have won this event alongside two joint favourites.  15 of the last 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/8—Dell’ Arca (good)

2/3—Thomas Campbell (2 x good)

1/9—Rolling Maul (soft)

1/9—Anteros (soft)

 

3.35: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared 18 of the 19 renewals to date, with RED INDIAN and COUP DE PRICEAU expected to figure prominently in a highly competitive Placepot finale.  Four-year-old POKER PLAY catches the eye as well however, especially with the Pipe team having landed some great gambles in this event down the years.  If you see a Poker Play bus (Number 8) coming up the high street failing to stop where it should, jump aboard as best you can!

Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged to date, whilst eleven of the twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.  Eleven of the last seventeen winners were returned at 40/1-16/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-10/1-8/1.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Saturday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding (Saturday) meeting during the last six years:

7 runners—Paul Nicholls (8)

6—Nicky Henderson (1)

4—Colin Tizzard (2)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Philip Hobbs (5)

3—Fergal O’Brien (2)

3—David Pipe (5)

3—Ian Williams

2—Kim Bailey

2—Emmanuel Claueux

2—Harry Fry (1)

2—Tom George

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Charlie Longsdon

2—J P O’Brien

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3)

2—Jamie Snowden

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Uttoxeter: £728.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wetherby: £229.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £99.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £106.00 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 17th November

CHELTENHAM - NOVEMBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £208.30 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (What A Moment), 7 (What Happens Now) & 11 (Indian Castle)

Leg 2 (1.15): 4 (Counter Shy), 13 (Magic Dancer), 6 (Or De Vassy) & 16 (War On The Rocks)

Leg 3 (1.50): 4 (Doitforthevillage), 5 (Exitas) & 3 (Festive Affair)

Leg 4 (2.25): 3 (Movewiththetimes), 1 (Finian’s Oscar) & 4 (William Henry)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Auvergnat) & 2 (Cantlow)

Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (On The Blind Side) & 3 (Calett Mad)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Leading trainers at this meeting during the last six years:

Before you take ANYTHING else into account, one stunning fact emerges during a six year study of the Open meeting.

Just three trainers have contributed 48/112 winners, which equates to 42.8% of the entire set of gold medallists.  If you add the fourth trainer into the mix, the percentage rises to 50.0%, exactly half of the total number of winners!

The relevant leading trainers are as follows:

17 winners—Paul Nicholls (3 on Friday – 8 on Saturday – 6 on Sunday)

17 winners—David Pipe (6-5-6)

14 winners—Philip Hobbs (4-5-5)

8 winners—Nicky Henderson (2-1-5)

 

12.40: Thirteen of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 11-4 or less, with Regal Flow expected to lead home the relevant runners.  This might prove to be a stronger renewal than usual however, with last year’s winner WHAT A MOMENT attempting to become David Pipe’s fourth winner in the race in the last seven years.  This is one of the few ‘prestige’ races for amateur pilots that Derek O’Connor has failed to win, though the popular jockey has definite claims aboard WHAT HAPPENS NOW this time around.  INDIAN CASTLE has a half decent chance of rounding off a fine week for Ian Williams, with the nine-year-old being marginally preferred to Regal Flow on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and a couple of joint favourites have won in the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 26 jollies have finished in the frame. Seven of the last 18 winners have been returned in double figures.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Solstice Son (good)

1/2—What A Moment (good)

1/1—What Happens Now (good)

2/11—Lamb Or Cod (good)

1/7—Indian Castle (heavy)

1/4—Regal Flow (good)

 

1.15: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals with vintage representative being 3/1 to extend the advantage before form is taken into consideration via just four declarations. COUNTER SHY stands out from that small crowd, whilst MAGIC DANCER is the one for money on the exchanges in the dead of night.  Kerry Lee (three winners of late) has wasted no time in running her five-year-old after winning at Kempton on Monday but if turning up here in the same form, Kerry’s Norse Dancer gelding should figure prominently.  Others to consider include OR DE VASSY and WAR ON THE ROCKS who represents Fergal O’Brien who often sneaks under the radar, having proved to be the underrated trainer at Prestbury Park in recent times.

Favourite factor: Although five favourites have obliged during the study period, only one of the last ten market leaders has prevailed.  Nine of the fifteen favourites have snared toteplacepot positions

 

1.50: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last six contests, whilst the last five winners have carried a maximum burden of 10-13.  DOITFORTHEVILLAGE is the only eight-year-old in the field, whilst FESTIVE AFFAIR could outrun his odds via the weight trend.  That all said, EXITAS represents the bang in form trainer Phil Middleton (7/19) who had produced 43 points of level stake during the relevant period.  Exitas finished well clear of Festive Affair in a recent event but the latter named Jonjo O’Neill raider will be race fit this time around whereby the differential in odds suggests that an each way play on Festive Affair could be the way to play the race.

Favourite factor: Only three favourites have obliged during the study period, albeit that 13 of the other 17 scorers were sent off in single SP figures without being returned as market leaders.  Eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

1/5—Mick Thonis (good)

1/2—Kapstadt (good)

1/6—Un Beau Roman (good)

 

2.25: It took a seven-year-old horse of the calibre of More Of That (two years back) to end a run of six-year-olds who claimed the previous nine renewals of this event.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago and there must be a chance that Paul Nicholls can extend the run of vintage representatives with MOVEWITHTHETIMES, who interestingly is Paul’s only runner on the opening day of the meeting.  Unless my eyes deceived me, FINIAN’S OSCAR was put in at 8/13 by the trade press yesterday afternoon but the lads/lasses in the office have seen the error of their ways by offering the Tizzard representative at 10/11 now.  Most unusually I am going to suggest you have a saver on the rank outside Coo Star Sivola if your permutation is still live going into this race, suggesting that WILLIAM HENRY is a more logical from a win perspective. That said, Nick Williams (Coo Star Sivola) has pulled quite a few rabbits out of hats with ‘no hopers’ down the years.

Favourite factor: Six market leaders have prevailed during the last fifteen years.

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Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/5—Coo Star Sivola (good)

1/3—William Henry (good)

 

3.00: Regular readers will know that I am not transfixed by this event, as opposed (seemingly) to media types who love to hype up anything ‘new’.  I guess it is a spectacle which at least gets people out of their ‘boxes’ and onto the centre of the racecourse to watch the sport on offer, or shall we tell the truth that only true racegoers set foot out there in the real world!  I just think it would have made a fine finale on the Friday of the meeting, a seventh race away from Placepot aspirations but then again, that’s just my viewpoint.  Upwards and onwards by informing that Enda Bolger has won six of the last twelve contests, whereby the Placepot chances (at the very least) for AUVERGNAT and three time course winner CANTLOW are there for all to see. Philip Hobbs is one of the few English trainers to have won the race (three times) whereby BERTIE BORU can be expected to figure prominently, especially as Philip has his team in great form, offering a recent ratio of 8/23, stats which have produced 53 points of level stake profits.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the twenty renewals to date, whilst eighteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 10/1 down the years.

Record of the course winners in the Cross Country event:

3/7—Cause Of Causes (2 x good & good to soft)

1/9—Cantlow (good to firm)

1/1—Urgent De Gregaine (good to soft)

1/6—Aubusson (soft)

 

3.35: Five-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven renewals of this Grade 2 novice hurdle event, with vintage representatives at 1/2 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted via four relevant raiders.  I’m a little hesitant to oppose Poetic Rhythm from Fergal O’Brien’s yard but I will adhere to my self-confessed anorak tendencies by stick with the two of the five-year-olds in the field, namely ON THE BLIND SIDE and course winner CALLET MAD.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite (of three) have won during the study period, whilst 15 of the 23 jollies reached the frame.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Poetic Rhythm (soft)

1/2—Calett Mad (good)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Friday followed their Cheltenham stats this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

5—Jonjo O’Neill (0/4)

3—Nicky Henderson (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (2/7 +4)

3—Ian Williams (0/4)

2—Enda Bolger (No previous runners)

2—Emannuel Clayeux (No previous runners)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/5)

2—Paul Henderson (0/2)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/4)

2—Sophie Leech (0/7)

2—Donald McCain (1/1 +8)

2—Dan Skelton (1/9 – loss of 4 points)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/11 +7)

2—Nick Williams (No previous runners)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newcastle (NH): £21.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield (A/W) : £119.00 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: This Is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 16th November

LUDLOW - NOVEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £61.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Cockney Wren) & 8 (Sunshade)

Leg 2 (1.55): 2 (Cervin), 6 (It’s a Sting) & 1 (Cervin)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Cresswell Legend), 6 (Black Sam Bella) & 4 (Haul Away)

Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Mullaghmurphy Blue), 6 (Bollin Line) & 1 (Market Road)

Leg 5 (3.30): 4 (Petite Power) & 5 (By The Boardwalk)

Leg 6 (4.00): 7 (Cubswin) & 4 (Pheonix Dawn)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: Although COCKNEY WREN is still a shade of odds on at the time of writing, money is coming in for SUNSHADE and it is worth acknowledging that Nicky Henderson has saddled five winners in as many years at this corresponding meeting.  That said, Harry Fry (COCKNEY WREN) has saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect and this pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.  Grania O’Malley looks booked for third spot at half decent odds from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged for the Alan King yard.

 

1.55: Stuart Edmunds has his team in fine form whereby it might not pay to dismiss stable representative LEGAL OKAY too quickly, as Stuart attempts to secure his fourth success with his tenth recent runner.  More logical winners to the untrained eye appear to include ITS A STING and another each way type, namely CERVIN from last year’s successful yard.

Favourite factor: The market got the second race right as well twelve months ago as the inaugural 7/2 favourite scored for the Tim Vaughan stable.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Go On Henry (good)

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have secured 19 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions between them with five-year-olds leading 5-2 from a win perspective. The pick of the relevant runners on this occasion will hopefully prove to be BLACK SAM BELLA and HAUL AWAY from the in form stables of Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson respectively.  That said, Kim Bailey also has his team in fine form whereby the lone course winner in the field has to be included in the mix, namely CRESSWELL LEGEND.  It’s worth taking into account Kim’s raids at this venue this season which have produced a ratio of 5/8, figures which have produced 17 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders (three of them won their respective races) have secured Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Cresswell Legend (good)

 

3.00: I don’t like siding with ‘favourites’ but the top three horses in the market in the dead of night really do stand out from the crowd.  Irish raider MULLAGHMURPHY BLUE takes in a hurdle event for the first time but anything like the form he showed at Musselburgh when winning recently would be good enough to go very close in this grade/company.  Hat trick seeker BOLLIN LINE has been very well placed by Lucingda Egerton again, whilst MARKET ROAD represents Evan Williams who is second in the list to Nicky Henderson at this corresponding meeting in recent times on the three winner mark. The result might be best served from a Placepot perspective if just one of the trio reach the frame alongside two ‘rags’, especially as I have no compunction to become involved from a win viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders (both winners of their respective events at 9/4 & 7/2**) have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

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1/1—Bollin Line (good)

1/2—Mr Bachster (good)

 

3.30: The strongest of the shorter priced runners in this event at the time of writing was very much PETITE POWER from Fergal’s O’Brien’s yard which has been firing in the winners in recent times.  Whilst talking about the popular trainer, I should remind readers what was said before the recent meeting at Cheltenham in that Fergal is very much the underrated handler at the track; before he posted two winners last month.  For the record, Fergal has twelve runners entered at Prestbury Park this weekend, five on Friday, four on Saturday and three on the final day of the fixture.  Back to this event, suggesting that BY THE BOARDWALK is the each way option if you want to shy away from odds of around 10/3 about the projected market leader.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety.

 

4.00: Last year’s 4/9 favourite was beaten in the Placepot finale whereby you need to treat the race with plenty of respect, given that this is a juvenile event.  That said, Neil King’s Zamindar filly CUBSWIN won well at the first time of asking whereby the ex Roger Charlton inmate has to be included in the mix, especially with a claimer in the saddle who negates the penalty for the relevant success.  PHEONIX DAWN appears to be the obvious danger having run well over timber already. TAMAYEF is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly, having reached an official mark of 82 on the level, albeit six turf assignments have only brought about one silver medal to date.  Seemingly a better performer on an A/W surface, the other pair are preferred accordingly.

Favourite factor: The five favourites to date have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Thursday followed by seasonal stats and profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Fergal O’Brien (0/2)

3—Matt Sheppard (1/4 +4)

3—Evan Williams (1/8 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kim Bailey (5/8 +17)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Nigel Hawke (0/1)

2—Nicky Henderson (0/4)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/2)

2—Kerry Lee (0/1)

2—Charlie Longsdon (2/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Taunton: This meeting was abandoned last year

Chelmsford: £21.30 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £1,035.30 - 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 15th November

BANGOR – NOVEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £392.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Bangor: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Agamemmon), 3 (Cloudy Beach) & 9 (Just Georgie)

Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Rene’s Girl) & 5 (The Nipper)

Leg 3 (1.45): 2 (Battle Of Shiloh), 8 (Sir Mangan) & 1 (Bigbadjohn)

Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (If The Cap Fits) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)

Leg 5 (2.50): 2 (Dashing Oscar) & 1 (Midnight Tour)

Leg 6 (3.20): 6 (Pageburg), 1 (Beach Break) & 4 (Erick Le Rouge)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Horses carrying 11-1 or more have claimed ten of the fourteen available Placepot positions, statistics which include four of the six winners at 6/1-11/4-2/1-11/8.  Eight of the eleven runners qualify via the weight trend, whilst six and seven-year-olds have (equally) split four of the six contests.  My short list consists of CLOUDY BEACH, JUST GEORGIE (despite being 16 ounces below the ‘superior’ weight barrier) and AGAMEMMON.  The latter named Tom George raider represents a yard which has won with all three runners at the track this season.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.

 

1.10: RENE’S GIRL represents last year’s winning yard (see favourite stats below), whilst Dan Skelton has saddled 13 of his last 45 runners to winning effect (29% strike rate), figures which have yielded 12 points of level stake profit.  Accordingly, it’s not difficult to find that RENE’S GIRL has attracted overnight support.  That said, THE NIPPER is unbeaten at this track and ran well enough on her reappearance at Wetherby at the recent Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby to suggest that she is the main threat today.  DUSKY LEGEND is admirably consistent from a Placepot perspective but is finding it difficult to win these days.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite duly obliged for the Dan Skelton team.  As well as the positive results for the stable this season which you can find below towards the foot of the column, Dan also secured a 27% strike rate at Bangor last season.

Record of the course winner in the field:

2/2—The Nipper (good & heavy)

 

1.45: Horses carrying 11-7 or more have won five of the eleven renewals to date, whilst eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests.  No horse possessed ticks in both of the relevant boxes last year, though BATTLE OF SHILOH and BIGBADJOHN qualify on both counts twelve months on.  Both horses are quoted at around the 11/2 mark and with the ‘dead eight’ field still intact at the time of writing, the price could attract interest on both counts.  SIR MANGAN completes my trio against the five remaining contenders.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (5/1 & 10/3**) market leaders.

Record of course winner in the third race:

1/1—Potters Legend (soft)

 

2.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals whereby readers might be encouraged to take on the favourite (IF THE CAP FITS) with Jonjo’s vintage representative DEMON D’AUNOU.  Certainly the pair should dominate at the business end of proceedings, though IF THE CAP FITS is expected to secure a second victory for trainer Harry Fry in as many years, albeit the wrong one of the two stable contenders last year won at 3/1 against Harry’s 8/11 favourite as far as the majority of punters were concerned.  Thankfully we have no worries on that score this time around.

Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

 

2.50: Course winner DASHING OSCAR is the second (and last) Harry Fry entry on the card and as in the previous race, Harry appears to have found a decent opportunity for his declaration.  Whether ‘Oscar’ can repel fellow Bangor winner MIDNIGHT TOUR is another matter entirely though either way, this pair a have a great deal going from them in Placepot terms.  The fact that ‘Oscar’ is race fit this season might just give him the edge this afternoon. The last six runners saddled by Ian Williams since his great double on Saturday (via both codes) have subsequently been beaten, though COOL SKY looks sure to figure prominently in this grade/company, possibly without actually winning the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, albeit last year’s successful 6/4 market leader was the first to oblige from a win perspective.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Midnight Tour (soft)

1/3—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

 

3.20: This race invariably attracts some top trainers and this year is no exception.  With five of the nine runners (the front quintet in the market at the time of writing) making their hurdling debuts here, it’s as well to include three runners (from my viewpoint) because however much ‘jungle drums’ are telling us about the contenders, juveniles race over timber are fraught with danger until horses have actually shown ability to handle the discipline on the racecourse.  PAGEBURG (Alan King), BEACH BREAK (Donald McCain) and ERICK LE ROUGE (Nick Williams) should see us safely over the line between them, if we are still live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the finale, though it’s worth noting that just three market leaders have won.  That said, the biggest priced winner to date was sent off at just 6/1.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bangor card on Wednesday followed by this season’s stats and profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (8/21 +1)

4—Tom Symonds (0/2)

3—Harriet Bethell (No previous runners at Bangor this season)

3—Alan King (1/5 +2)

3—Donald McCain (8/27 +17)

2—Harry Fry (0/1)

2—Tom George (3/3 +7)

2—Phil Kirby (No previous winners)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/9)

2—Ben Pauling (0/2)

2—Katy Price (0/6)

2—Sue Smith (No previous runners)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/5 +15)

2—Evan Williams (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Nick Williams (0/1)

2—Venetia Williams (0/3)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £4,965.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced

Exeter: £240.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): This is new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 14th November

LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.20 (6 favourites 5 winners & 1 unplaced

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 7 (Royalewhit), 6 (Oborne Lady) & 2 (Bullfrog)

Leg 2 (1.20): 7 (Jabulani) & 3 (Buckby Boy)

Leg 3 (1.50): 2 (Greyed A), 5 (Arden Denis) & 6 (Le Coeur Net)

Leg 4 (2.20): 7 (Amadeus Rox) & 1 (Capitoul)

Leg 5 (2.50): 1 (Creivehill), 5 (Un Prophete) & 7 (De Faoithesdream)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Boyhood) & 2 (Gabrial The Great)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: The first thing to note is that some trainers (see the list at the foot of the column) have outstanding ratios at this venue, with Dan Skelton, Dr Richard Newland and Nigel Twiston-Davies standing out from the crowd.   The unusual aspect of this meeting is the fact that it starts with an NH flat race as opposed to other venues where such races are usually staged at the other end of the programme.  UPw3ards and onward by informing that four-year-olds lead the five-year olds 3-2 via just the five contests thus far, figures confirmed on the Placepot front by a ratio of 10-4.  OBORNE LADY has been the subject of some support overnight, whilst ROYALEWHIT and BULLFROG should figure prominently in a low grade affair.

Favourite factor: Five of the six favourites have claimed Placepot positions via six renewals to date, statistics which include four winners.

 

1.20: With market leaders offering a good recent record in the race (particularly from a Placepot perspective), JABULANI appears to be the call here.  Nigel Twiston-Davies boasts a 28% strike rate at the track during the study period for good measure, a ratio which results from six winners.  Dan Skelton’s record is event better whereby the 16/1 alternative each way option about BUCKBY BOY is another route to go if you don’t like relying on favourites.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via eight contests during the last decade. All eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), whilst seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.

 

1.50: Dr Richard Newland was one of the names offered in dispatches in the opening event and with Richard Johnson having been booked aboard his representative GREYED A here, it’s hardly surprising that the six-year-old has been back overnight, almost right across the board it seems.  All four gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 11-8 and others who fit the weight trends with claims include ARDEN DENIS and LE COEUR NET.

Favourite factor: All four winners have scored at a top price of 3/1 thus far, with two of the four market leaders having prevailed.  That said, the two beaten favourites finished out of the money.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Greyed A (soft)

 

2.20: Two of the younger runners in the line up make most appeal here, namely AMADEUS ROX and CAPITOUL.  This is a race in which flat jockey try their hand on the other side of the sport whereby caution is the name of the game, certainly from a win perspective.  That said, the two named horses boast obvious Placepot claims, even in this ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: We had to wait until the seventh renewal for a successful favourite to be posted, albeit that four of the earlier winners scored at a top price of 9/2.  Four of the last seven favourites missed out on toteplacepot positions.

 

2.50: DE FAOITHESDREAM pops up every now and then and this is certainly his grade if in the mood to dominate from the front which he is capable of doing on a going day.  If not, the door will be left open for the likes of CREIVEHILL and UN PROPHETE to take full advantage.  The pair is listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 11/8 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 market leader.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Creivehill (heavy)

 

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3.20: AWAY FOR SLATES has to overcome a twenty month break from the track, which should enable the likes of BOYHOOD and GABRIAL THE GREAT to dominate the business end of proceedings in a run of the mill Placepot finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 market leader snared a Placepot position finishing behind horses sent off at 7/1 and 6/1, before last year’s 5/4 favourite obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Sirop De Menthe (heavy)

1/1—Molly Carew (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by 5 year stats & profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Gary Moore (9/94 – loss of 26 points)

4—Neil Mulholland (3/23 +26)

3—Zoe Davison (1/23 – loss of 17 points)

3—Tom George (0/4)

2—Kim Baley (0/4)

2—Alex Hales (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Anthony Honeyball (3/9 +4)

2—Alan King (1/6 – loss of 1 point)

2—Emma Lavelle (2/9 +1)

2—Seamus Mullins (4/32 – loss of 15 points)

2—Dr Richard Newland (4/6 +4)

2—Richard Rowe (2/17 – loss of 5 points)

2—Dan Skelton (5/10 +15)

2—Suzi Smith (1/6 +3)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (6/21 +24)

2—Tim Vaughan (4/20 – loss of 7 points)

2—Lucy Wadham (3/10 +3)

2—Evan Williams (3/13 – Level profit/loss during the period)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £6,529.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Worcester: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 13th November

KEMPTON – NOVEMBER 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £164.90 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 3 (Mr Whipped) & 2 (Irish Prophecy)

Leg 2 (1.20): 3 (Eyesopenwideawake), 6 (Aficonado) & 7 (Bad Boy Du Pouldu)

Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Secret Investor), 1 (Black Mischief) & 5 (Earth Storm)

Leg 4 (2.25): 1 (Give Me A Copper) & 2 (Three Ways)

Leg 5 (2.55): 2 (Who Dares Wins), 6 (Maestro Royal) & 1 (The Last Samurai)

Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Whisper) & 1 (Clan Des Obeaux)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50: Although only 49 runners made the final cut, this is still 12 more than there were declared for the meeting last year!  Aside from the main meetings, there is something about Kempton Park that does not attract that many trainers, aside from the usual suspects!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that yesterday’s Sandown winner IRISH PROPHECY was still in the mix at the time of writing (4.00 this morning) and given his effortless stroll on Sunday, I guess there is a chance that Emma Lavelle’s Azamour gelding will turn up for the gig.  Either way, I’m not sure if an enquiry has been announced to look into that event yesterday as some senior jockeys were guilty of letting the odds on favourite get an incredibly easy lead from the outset whereby there never seemed a chance that any one of his rivals could possibly catch the market leader.  ASHKOUL ran off a mark of 94 on the level on one occasion, a rating that would put him in with a chance here, though we have to take his ‘timber-topping’ on trust on his debut at this discipline.  Whatever his future, the chances are that the Skelton team will have to play second fiddle to MR WHIPPED here (and Emma’s raider for that matter) if Nicky Henderson’s Beneficial gelding is as good as the jungle drums suggest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the twelve favourites during the last eleven years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Irish Prophecy (good)

 

1.20: This is arguably the hardest puzzle to solve on the card and with little in the way of history to help us out, I’m hoping that EYESOPENWIDEAWAKE can build on his summer success now taking to fences.  If Harry Whittington’s raider gets his own way out in front, Harry Bannister’s mount might prove difficult to catch at a venue which suits such tactics.  Harry (Whittington) has saddled three of his last nine runners to winning effect, with connections possibly (I repeat possibly) having most to fear from AFICIONADO and BAD BOY DU POULDU in a tricky event to evaluate.  Favorito Buck’s will probably attract more Placepot units than he is entitled to via the Paul Nicholls factor whereby there is little value in adding the Ditcheat representative into the equation.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader finished last of the three finishers in a four runner ‘win only’ contest.

 

1.50: Five-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals of this contest with vintage representatives around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted via eight of the fourteen declarations.  Plenty of in-form trainers are involved in the contest and my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of SECRET INVESTOR, BLACK MISCHIEF and EARTH STORM.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five success market leaders from a win perspective.

 

2.25: There is no point beating about the bush in this oh so disappointing affair by informing that both horses will be added into the permutation, especially after GIVE ME A COPPER blotted his copybook at Kelso last time out.  That said, the Paul Nicholls raider has plenty in hand over THREE WAYS according to official figures whereby an error free round would surely be enough to seal the prize.  The early signs suggest that the trade press quote of 4/11 is not short enough, with 1/4 being the likely SP of the projected winner.  If the odds do not look that different to the untrained eye, I’m duty bound to inform that the differential is equivalent to a horse being backed from 9/1 to 5/1.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.55: MAESTRO ROYAL represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled three of his last seven runners in the race to winning effect.  Another horse that could outrun his odds is THE LAST SAMURI for a couple of reasons.  Kim Bailey saddled the winner of this event last year, whilst Kim has greeted four of his last seven runners in the enclosure reserved for winners.  Add the fact that just five race has passed since THE LAST SAMURI was made one of the 8/1 joint faviourites for the Grand National in 2016 whereby you start to think that 20/1 in this grade/company looks reasonably interesting.  For the record, the nine-year-old (tackling timber instead of the huge Aintree fences) has gained six of his eight wins between November and January.  More logical minds might home in on the chance of WHO DARES WINS who is one of Alan King’s better dual purpose horses and is fit from a profitable campaign on the level.

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Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have won during the last eleven years, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 10/3.  ‘Coincidentally’, seven favourites finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—The Last Samurai (good to soft)

 

3.30: Nicky Henderson (WHISPER) leads Paul Nicholls (CLAN DES OBEAUX) 3-2 via the last nine renewals of this event and the figures suggest that Nicky can extend the lead in this Graduation event.  Only Might Bite has beaten Whisper via his last four assignments, form which was well and truly franked at Sandown yesterday.  Whisper beat Clan Des Obeaux by half a length at Cheltenham back in January and is five pounds better off into the bargain, which would not be the case in a handicap event!

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won seven of the eight renewals thus far, with eight of the ten market leaders securing Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Monday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and then their five year record at the Sunbury circuit:

4 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/8 – Slight profit) & 52/194 – loss of 4 points

4—Paul Nicholls (5/7 +2) & 32/146 – loss of 9 points

3—Gary Moore (0/6) & 5/83 – loss of 47 points

3—Dan Skelton (0/6) & 8/90 – loss of 63 points

2—Kim Bailey (0/1) & 5/48 – loss of 7 points

2—Harry Fry (1/4 – Slight loss) & 10/53 – loss of 20 points

2—Chris Gordon (0/1) & 8/45 +46

2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) & 9/65 – loss of 35 points

2—Ben Pauling (0/1) & 4/29 – loss of 16 points

2—Harry Whittinghton (1/2 +4) & 3/14 +7

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

49 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £27.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (A/W): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 12th November

SANDOWN - NOVEMBER 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £703.40 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Bastien), 1 (Capeland) & 5 (Paddys Runner)

Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Challonial), 7 (Touch Kick) & 10 (Bally Gilbert)

Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (Irish Prophecy) & 7 (Second Time Around)

Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (Might Bite) & 3 (As De Mee)

Leg 5 (2.55): 6 (Sword Of Fate), 8 (Garo De Juilley) & 7 (Wolfcatcher)

Leg 6 (3.30): 1 (Double Ross) & 8 (Pete The Feat)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.45: Gary Moore ruled the Sandown venue with a stunning ratio of 10/25 (profit of 65 points to level stakes) the season before last which was set up when landing a 1529/1 treble on this corresponding card two years ago.  Gary endured a season he will want to forget at the track last year however, as the stats at the foot of the column will reveal.  Mr Fickle represented the yard in this event twelve months ago when finishing with only one behind him, with ten pound claimer James Nuttall retaining the ride.  I expect Gary to have better luck later on the card, preferring the likes of CAPELAND and BASTIEN this time around. The latter named six-year-old is the only vintage raider here in an attempt to maintain their 100% record in the race following three renewals.  There is a threat of rain arriving late morning into the early part of the afternoon in the Esher area which could disrupt the form book. That said, PADDYS RUNNER (placed on the  corresponding card last year) should not be affected either way whereby the five-year-old is added into the equation.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites to date has claimed a Placepot position, without winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Mr Fickle (soft)

 

1.20: Harry Fry secured a 32/1 treble yesterday via just six runners whereby the team will have plenty of confidence going into today’s sport.  A winner of two of his five races to date, Harry’s CHALONNIAL is their lone representative today and providing he takes to fencing, the five-year-old should figure prominently with any rain in the area likely to increase his chance of winning.  TOUCH KICK appears to be the main danger, though money has come for BALLY GILBERT overnight which adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite could only finish second in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

1.50: Alan King has failed to visit the area reserved for winning connections for the last six years in any race at the corresponding fixture, though that poor run (by Alan’s high standards) could end here via his Market Rasen winner SECOND TIME AROUND in a race which might not prove difficult to win.  That said, Emma Lavelle’s IRISH PROPHECY was all the rage on the exchanges in the dead of night whereby the trade press quote of even money might be difficult to obtain towards flag fall. It’s interesting to note that some of the top trainers have swerved this event and the possibility of meeting up with Emma’s raider could be the reason why.  The chance of LEAPAWAY cannot be entirely ignored with Philip Hobbs having saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, notwithstanding an 80/1 silver medallist during the period!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/15 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Nicky Henderson will be glancing up at the skies as he travels to Sandown today I’ll wager.  His star representative MIGHT BITE is a winner of seven of his twelve races to date but his one assignment on bad ground brought about a defeat.  The forecast suggests that heavy rain (if any at all) is doubtful whereby the ton in hand he has of his rivals here should ensure success.  These fences have brought about the downfall of many good horses in the past however and with two of his three rivals having already won here on soft ground, I doubt I will be in the queue to take odds of around 1/4 this afternoon, irrespective of whether we endure the wet stuff. AS DE MEE has won twice around here and looks to be the forecast call, if you want to play the race that way.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the eleven renewals during the last twelve years, in which nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 11/2.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

2/6—As De Mee (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Label Des Obeaux (soft)

 

2.55: Eight of the nine horses that have secured Placepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-2 and though three results hardly form a trend as such, I would rather have the figures on my side than against.  The pick of the relevant horses in Sunday’s contest will hopefully prove to be SWORD OF FATE, GARO DE JUILLEY and WOLFCATCHER from the yard of Ian Williams who saddled last year’s winner, notwithstanding his great double via both codes yesterday.  WENYERREADYFREDDIE makes his handicap debut and could yet be anything, though whether Nicky Henderson’s projected favourite will offer any value for money from a Placepot perspective here is open to plenty of doubt.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites have snared Placepot positions by securing gold and silver medals thus far.

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3.30: A typical Sandown Steeplechase which will create panic in the ranks should a non runner rear its ugly head before flag fall.  DOUBLE ROSS looks the safest bet as far as our favourite wager is concerned, not that I would even attempt to name the winner in the Placepot finale.  Ground conditions will not affect the Twiston-Davies raider either way, with connections possibly having most to fear from PETE THE FEAT and CREEVYTENNANT.

Favourite factor: The inaugural trio of 4/1 co favourites all missed out on Placepot positions in a short field contest.  One of the two joint favourites subsequently obliged twelve months later, though that still leaves an unimpressive 1/5 ratio from a Placepot viewpoint to consider.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Loose Chips (good & good to soft)

2/4—Vino Griego (good & good to soft)

1/4—Pete The Feat (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Sunday followed by stats at the course last season and the relevant profits losses accrued:

6 runners—Paul Nicholls (3/40 – loss of 21 points)

4—Nicky Henderson (11/42 – Slight loss)

4—Alan King (5/13 +5)

4—Gary Moore (2/32 – loss of 17 points)

4—Jonjo O’Neill (0/7)

4—Dan Skelton (0/6)

3—Charlie Longsdon (2/15 +9)

2—Stuart Edmunds (0/4)

2—Philip Hobbs (4/19 – loss of 5 points)

2—Graeme McPherson (0/2)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/12 +2)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/9 +9)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/14 +18)

2—Evan Williams (0/7)

2—Ian Williams (3/9 +12)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

69 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £230.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 11th November

DONCASTER - NOVEMBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £305.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (11.55): 7 (Yajooll), 9 (Azpetia) & 10 (Lady Willpower)

Leg 2 (12.25): 6 (The British Lion), 10 (Tallow) & 5 (Ornamental)

Leg 3 (1.00): 7 (Roaring Forties), 6 (Easy Victory), 18 (Hajjam) & 8 (Rebel Surge)

Leg 4 (1.35): 1 (Speculative Bid) & 11 (Mobsta)

Leg 5 (2.05): 9 (Sir Dancealot), 6 (Flying Pursuit) & 13 (Sainted)

Leg 6 (2.40): 8 (Vintage Folly) & 3 (Indulged)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.55: No less than 40 trainers have just one runner at the meeting, whilst 29 handlers have declared at least two horses at the last meeting of the turf season.  This opening event is as tough as it gets and you will be in a better position than yours truly later in the day, when you can assess which way the market is moving.  In the dead of night, I’m opting for YAJOOLL, AZPETIA and LADY WILLPOWER.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 28 favourites have prevailed, with 18 market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

10-9-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

10-8-12 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (8 ran-heavy)

1-9 (7 ran-heavy)

9-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

6-2-13 (14 ran-soft)

10-14-8 (15 ran-soft)

14-7-12 (15 ran-good)

12-9-7 (15 ran-soft)

10-5-9-11 (16 ran-soft)

6-4-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

8-12-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

7-6-10 (14 ran-soft)

15-16-3 (15 ran-soft)

17-6-7 (15 ran-soft)

7-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

Two divisions were contested at Windsor in 2006

2-3-18 (18 ran-soft)

7-16-19 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-7-11 (14 ran-good)

6-2-4 (13 ran-heavy)

8-15-1 (17 ran-soft)

1-4-12 (21 ran-heavy)

 

12.25: The same comments (and stats) apply here in the second division of the opening event on the card.  My trio against the field consists of THE BRITISH LION (Mark Johnston’s only runner on the card), TALLOW and ORNAMENTAL.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stats above apply here.

 

1.00: Four-year-olds carrying at least nine stones have won three of the last six renewals whilst the same weight trend has proved successful for the last seven contests.  ROARING FORTIES goes well in the ground and with ticks in both of the trend boxes, Rebecca Bastiman’s Invincible Spirit gelding is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include EASY VICTORY, HAJJAM and REBEL SURGE who is expected to outrun his huge price.

Favourite factor: Favourite punters would have won £65.00 to level (£10.00) stakes of late, even though only two market leaders have prevailed via the last nine contests.  Six of the last twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions.  Five of the last ten winners scored in double figures, ranging in prove between 10/1 and 50/1.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/8—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/4—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/12—Khelman (heavy)

 

1.35: The eight winners had carried a maximum weight of 9-1 before last year’s gold medallist was burdened with 9-5.  I am therefore defying the stats (a rare scenario) by opting for David Elsworth’s top weight SPECULATIVE BID under the steadier of 9-10.  Why?  David boasts a great record on Town Moor this season have saddled three of his five runners to winning effect and with SPECULATIVE BID at home under tough conditions, I expect the six-year-old to finish in the frame at the very least.  I have taken leave of my senses in this event as I am offering just one other horse on which to pin my hopes and dreams, namely MOBSTA from Mick Channon’s yard which has endured an erratic season by Mick’s high standards.  That said, Mick’s Bushranger representative is ‘thrown in’ here on the best of his form, especially with a half decent three pound claimer in the saddle.  His two wins on the course have also been gained under soft conditions which suggests that his 20/1 quote is interesting to say the least.

Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (6/1 & 4/1) favourites.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

5-6-2-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

7-15-4-10 (21 ran-heavy)

3-7-1 (14 ran-heavy)

12-8-18-14 (20 ran-soft)

2-5-10-11 (20 ran-good)

2-1-9-6 (21 ran-soft)

13-21-1-3 (21 ran-good to soft)

5-14-4-10 (20 ran-soft)

21-12-5-9 (21 ran-soft)

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Speculative Bid (heavy)

2/4—Muntadab (good & soft)

1/1—Bravery (good to soft)

1/1—Hells Gate (good to firm)

1/3—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/5—Steel Train (good to firm)

1/11—Berniewhittle (good)

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2/6—Mobsta (2 x soft)

1/4—Right Touch (good to soft)

 

2.05: An argument could be made that this is as tough as the November Handicap which (yet again), does not (unfortunately) play any part in the toteplacepot scenario this year.  The second of the three runners from David Elsworth’s yard runs here in the shape of SIR DANCEALOT who finally came good last time out after some efforts which flattered to deceive.  The admirably consistent FLYING PURSUIT will not have any worries on account of the ground I’ll wager, whilst SAINTED also represents the four-year-old vintage which has prevailed in three of the last four years.  The reserve nomination is awarded to STAKE ACCLAIM.  For the record later on the card, David Elsworth’s third and final runner is Master The World who could outrun his 40/1 quote in the November Handicap.  His last win was gained under soft conditions off just a three pound lower mark whereby the price demands each way interest, albeit to minimum stakes.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst aside from the relevant winners during the period, the last nine market leaders have finished out with the washing.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

7-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-9-8 (14 ran-heavy)

9-2-3 (11 ran-heavy)

5-10-18 (18 ran-soft)

12-7-11 (19 ran-good)

11-2-1 (16 ran-soft)

18-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-6-2 (12 ran-soft)

10-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

11-1-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-10-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

5-10-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

20-22-14 (21 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/3—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

1/3—Flying Pursuit (heavy)

1/3—Sir Dancealot (good to soft)

1/3—Stake Acclaim (soft)

1/1—Sainted (heavy)

 

3.00: Three and four-year-olds have dominated recently landing 13/14 renewals, with junior raiders leading 7-6 during the period.  I’m sticking with those trend selecting one from each vintage, with money having arrived for VINTAGE FOLLY and INDULGED overnight.  If you have selected less horses in your permutation in previous races than yours truly, TIME CHASER would be the obvious alternative option to consider.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged during the study period whilst other gold medallists have been returned at odds of 33/1-25/1-14/1-12/1.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Indulged (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Saturday followed by this season’s stats at the course with profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

8 runners—Richard Fahey (4/96 – loss of 59 points)

6—Keith Dalgleish (2/17 +16)

5—Tim Easterby (1/58 – loss of 52 points)

4—Mick Easterby (1/19 +10)

3—David Elsworth (3/5 +2)

3—David Evans (1/16 – loss of 10 points)

3—William Haggas (6/20 – loss of 4 points)

3—Iain Jardine (0/5)

3—David O’Meara (1/44 – loss of 23 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

3—Marcus Tregoning (0/2)

2—Michael Appleby (3/23 +7)

2—Andrew Balding (0/9)

2—David Barron (4/27 +10)

2—Ralph Beckett (3/18 +12)

2—Michael Bell (0/11)

2—Marco Botti (2/14 – Slight profit)

2—Henry Candy (0/6)

2—Scott Dixon (0/22)

2—Michael Dods (0/22)

2—Jim Goldie (1/12 +5)

2—John Gosden (2/28 – loss of 22 points)

2—David C Grittiths (0/8)

2—Dean Ivory (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/4)

2—John Quinn (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kevin Ryan (1/30 – loss of 26 points)

2—Joseph Tuite (No previous runners at Doncaster this season)

2—Ian Williams (3/12 +6)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card – including Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon, by way of a change!

120 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £346.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Kelso: £105.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £70.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 10th November

HEXHAM - NOVEMBER 10

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £26.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Hexham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Ouro Branco), 7 (Tetraites Style) & 2 (Calix Delafayette)

Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Handy Hollow) & 6 (Prince Dundee)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Niceandeasy) & 4 (Baraculu)

Leg 4 (2.10): 5 (Bitview Colin), 2 (Weston Jo) & 6 (Jump For Dough)

Leg 5 (2.40): 5 (Who’s Cross), 2 (Princess Mononoke) & 11 (Mrs Grass)

Leg 6 (3.10): 6 (On A Promise) & 7 (Willow Grange)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: OURO BRANCO represents Nigel Hawke (three runners on the card, the others contesting the 3.10 & 3.40 events) who boasts a 100% record (3/3) at Hexham during the last five years.  Eleven points of level stake profit has been realised during the period. One of the most exposed horses in the field, OURO BRANCO at least has plenty of moisture in the ground which is seemingly ideal, whilst Nigel could hardly have found the four-year-old an easier assignment.  TETRAITES STYLE has been the subject of some support on the exchanges overnight, whilst James Ewart’s Ayr winner CALIX DELAFAYETTE completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include a 5/4 winner.

 

1.10: I would not contemplate having a bet in the race from a win perspective but that said, the chance for HANDY HOLLOW to secure a Placepot position is there for all to see.  Lucinda Russel has saddled five of her last seventeen runners to winning effect and there is every chance that her Stowaway gelding PRINCE DUNDEE will figure prominently.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the first race on the card, whereby the same favourite stats are in place.

 

1.45: All four races have been secured by five/six/seven-year-olds, with the 'younger set' having claimed five of the last six renewals, coming into this year’s event on a five-timer.  Last year’s gold medallist was the only (heavy ground) course winner in the line up and five-year-old BARACULU is one of two such entries this time around.  The other is NICEANDEASY who looks to have been well placed, albeit the Keith Dalgleish raider has to break the vintage trend barrier as the Kalinisi gelding is a four-year-old.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals, whilst six of the last seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/1--Niceandeasy (heavy)

1/2—Baraculu (heavy)

 

2.10: Soft ground course winner BITVIEW COLIN is the first of four runners on the programme to be saddled by John Patrick Ryan who boasts 2/3 stats here at Hexham during the last five years.  To add icing on the cake, John boasts level stake profits of 25 points for good measure. The same going should be in place and though ‘Colin’ has yet to winner after four steeplechase assignments, the trainer has found an ideal opportunity in this grade/company.  WESTON JOE and JUMP FOR DOUGH should offer challenges at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor:  This is a new race on the Hexham card.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Weston Jo (heavy)

1/1—Bitview Colin (soft)

 

2.40: MRS GRASS ran down the field in this event last year but on a similar mark here thanks to a jockey claim and in reasonable form , MRS GRASS cannot be written off entirely as she has gained all three of her wins to date at this venue.  WHO’S CROSS is another John Patrick Ryan runner on the card with each way claims, whilst PRINCESS MONONOKE has her preferred ground conditions.

Favourite factor: Both (13/8 & 7/4) favourites had finished in the frame without winning their respective events before last year’s 7/2 market leader was one of four horses which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Princess Mononoke (soft)

1/4—Uno Valoroso (heavy)

3/21—Mrs Grass (2 x soft & good to soft)

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3.10: ON A PROMISE should prove difficult to kick out of the frame, whilst Irish raider WILLOW GRANGE appears to make up a decent duo against the remaining thirteen contenders in a race which is high on numbers but short on class.

Favourite factor: The four favourites have gained two gold medals alongside one of each colour, with all the market leaders having secured Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6—Turtle Cask (heavy)

1/5—Captain Sharp (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Hexham card on Friday followed by their five year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

5 runners—Lucinda Russell (39/226 (+45)

4—John Patrick Ryan (2/3 +25)

4—Sue Smith (0/14)

4—Victor Thomson (4/65 – loss of 36 points)

3—Nick Alexander (6/72 – loss of 40 points)

3—Julia Brook (2/14 – Slight loss)

3—James Ewart (11/53 +5)

3—Micky Hammond (12/112 – loss of 67 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (3/3 +11)

3—Nicky Richards (12/42 +17)

2—Maurice Barnes (18/116 – loss of 9 points)

2—George Bewley (9/64 +9)

2—Gillian Boanas (0/8)

2—Susan Corbett (6/92 – loss of 63 points)

2—Sam England (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Jonthan Haynes (10/85 – loss of 3 points)

2—Donald McCain (15/107 – loss of 60 points)

2—Lucy Normile (1/28 – loss of 11 points)

2—Paul Stafford (5/29 +8)

2—Simon West (0/3)

2—William Young Junior (3/21 – loss of 5 points)

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £338.00 – 7 favourites 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Warwick: £1,091.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: £307.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 9th November

NEWBURY – NOVEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £187.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 2 (Claimantakinforgan) & 6 (Lostintranslation)

Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Whataknight), 10 (Captain Buck’s) & 5 (Onefitzall)

Leg 3 (1.40): 1 (Crosspark), 7 (Colin’s Brother) & 4 (Exxaro)

Leg 4 (2.10): 4 (Cap Soleil) & 6 (Oscar Rose)

Leg 5 (2.45): 3 (Topofthegame) & 2 (Strong Pursuit)

Leg 6 (3.20): 4 (Barman), 6 (Volpole Jelois) & 5 (Sea Wall)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.40: There is little point in dwelling beyond the fact that this, in essence, is a two runner race, despite its ten declarations.  It appears that CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN is fully expected to take care of LOSTINTRANSLATION according to the exchange play overnight.  Out of interest both the respective trainers saddled winners at the inaugural meeting last year, Nicky Henderson at 3/1 and Colin Tizzard at 9/1.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/2—Fly Du Charmil (soft)

 

1.10: On a (seemingly) drying day of weather towards the west of the country, ground conditions will be against Minella On Line who would otherwise have been offered as a half decent each way bet to consider as the rank outsider of the field. Instead, I am looking at the likes of CAPTAIN BUCK’S, ONEFITZALL and WHATANIGHT.  The latter named Harry Fry representative could take full advantage of the five pound claimer in the plate (27 winners via a 14% strike rate), whereby the 9/1 offer by BetVictor at the time of writing offers some win and place value from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the card

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Tobefair (soft)

1/1—Onefitzall (good to soft)

 

1.40: This was the race in which Colin Tizzard scored with his 9/1 winner twelve months ago and there will be worse outsiders than Colin’s raider EXXARO on the card for sure. With Colin’s Sister winning for us at 10/1 on Saturday, we now have the merits of COLIN’S BROTHER to consider, albeit the two horses hail from different stables.  Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in decent nick whereby COLIN’S BROTHER is short listed, especially as the seven-year-old won his first two races last season, albeit slight slower ground would have been ideal here.  CROSSPARK is the horse for money overnight and it’s worth noting that Richard Johnson takes his first ride for Caroline Bailey this season.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished out of the frame in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

 

2.10: Regular readers will know why Fergal O’Brien is one of my favourite trainers just now though to be entirely accurate, Fergal is rarely off my radar when focusing on handlers on a daily basis.  On the one hand his unbeaten four-year-old raider CAP SOLEIL would have enjoyed a little more moisture in the ground, though the negative scenario is arguably negated by the fact that his trio of bumper wins last were gained at three of the most competitive venues in the land at Cheltenham, Aintree and Sandown.  For those reasons alone, Fergal’s Kapgarde filly in the most interesting horse at Newbury today, whilst stable companion OSCAR ROSE also looks set to figure prominently.  Quite why ROSA DAMASCENA is a 28/1 chance in a place this morning I’m not entirely sure, given that Alan King’s Kalanisi filly was only offered as an 8/1 chance when contesting a Listed race at Aintree on her first run for Alan King last season.  Yes she was pulled up in a race which did not go anywhere near to plan, but 28/1 still looks a very big price given that we should always allow a horse one bad run (especially a filly) which is particularly relevant here, as ‘Rosa’ won her next race on the level at Chelmsford.  I am not suggesting this is an easy task by any means but all the same, a saver to minimum stakes is my way to play the race.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

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1/1—Cap Soleil (good to soft)

 

2.45: Despite Nicky Henderson’s fine strike rate at his local track, Beat That is not one of my favourite representatives from the Seven Barrows stable, whereby I am diluting this race down to a two horse affair, suggesting that Morello Royal also has plenty to prove at this level.  All the money at the time of writing is for TOPOFTHEGAME and no matter what the two trainers say about each other (offering a rosy glow), Paul Nicholls takes plenty of satisfaction from beating his fellow handler on Nicky’s ‘stamping ground’ whereby TOPOFTHEGAME is marginally preferred to STRONG PURSUIT in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/2 market leader (literally) failed to win a two horse race!

 

3.20: Two points of interest regarding Nicky Henderson’s recent Taunton winner BARMAN.  Firstly, Nicky’s six-year-old is due for a rise in the weights as of Sunday and secondly, ten pound claimer Alan Doyle easily negates the six pound rise for the relevant success which was gained under fast conditions.  With the ground seemingly set to dry out quite quickly today, BARMAN is the first name on the team sheet ahead of VOLPONE JELOIS and SEA WALL.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is the third new race during the course of my investigation in the pursuit of landing today’s ‘pot’.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Thursday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

7—Nicky Henderson (37/145 – loss of 11 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (21/111 +53)

4—Colin Tizzard (10/67 – loss of 15 points)

3—Warren Greatrex (11/58 – loss of 4 points)

3—Philip Hide (0/1)

3—Emma Lavelle (0/27)

3—Paul Nicholls (24/143 – loss of 18 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/81 – loss of 38 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (4/30 – loss of 9 points)

2—Alan King (18/140 – loss of 48 points)

2—Sophie Leech (0/9)

2—Gary Moore (4/41 +9)

2—Oliver Sherwood (5/36 +4)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 declared runners

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 8th November

NOTTINGHAM - NOVEMBER 8

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 4 (Blacklooks), 10 (Burn Some Dust) & 11 (Odds On Oli)

Leg 2 (1.05): 9 (Rhode Island), 13 (Young Rascal) & 12 (Victory Chime)

Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Glencadam Master), 2 (Best Blue) & 7 (Nibras Galaxy)

Leg 4 (2.15): 4 (Gracious John) & 3 (Clem Fandango)

Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Fantasy Keeper), 4 (Quick Look) & 6 (Van Gerwen)

Leg 6 (3.20): 1 (Ebitda) & 10 (Sarabi)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: I wrote a book called ‘Nursery Class’ many years ago at which time I suggested that the majority of Richard Fahey’s two-year-old handicap winners carried a maximum of nine stones – and little changed down the years. I’m not suggesting that ODDS ON OLI can actually win this event though at around the 18/1 mark, Joe Fanning’s mount could represent some value for money from a Placepot perspective.  At the other end of the market, both BURN SOME DUST and BLACKLOOKS won last time out which at least offered proof that they have what it takes to win races, something that arounds two third of the horses in training fail to achieve.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

1.05: 21 of the last 23 winners of this event have scored at odds of 11/1 or less which is a terrific record, especially at this stage of the season when results can go ‘belly up’.  Money has arrived overnight for the likes of RHODE ISLAND, YOUNG RASCAL and VICTIORY CHIME and with jungle drums failing to beat for any of the other contenders, this trio will carry my Placepot cash.  The latter named pair might have t best of the draw on this occasion.

Favourite factor: 22 of the 31 market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include 10 successful favourites.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – the most recent result offered first):

14-1-2 (17 ran-good)

11-4-15 (13 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-soft)

10-11-9 (11 ran-soft)

9-10-15-14 (17 ran-good to soft)

9-3-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-2-12 (9 ran-soft)

11-9-6 (11 ran-soft)

3-4-8 (12 ran-soft)

6-8-3 (13 ran-soft)

3-6-9 (17 ran-soft)

8-15-14 (17 ran-soft)

8-3-14 (14 ran-heavy)

10-5-12 (16 ran-soft)

5-8-11 (15 ran-soft)

6-8-4 (17 ran-heavy)

11-6-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-3-6 (12 ran-good to soft)

12-9-14 (14 ran-soft)

1 & 10 D/H-12 (13 ran-heavy)

2-5-12 (13 ran-heavy)

14-4-2 (15 ran-heavy)

17-6-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

6-3-2 (16 ran-good to soft)

 

1.40: BEST BLUE and NIBRAS GALAXY offer some hope against the majority of the shorter priced contenders I’ll wager, whilst GLENCADAM MASTER (like Rhode Island in the first division of this contest) looks another John Gosden type for the short list.  Any money for GREAT BEYOND could be worth heeding later in the day.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply.

 

2.15: GRACIOUS JOHN was the first name mentioned in the analysis for the first running of this event twelve months ago before going on to score at 12/1.  Such generous odds will not be in place this time around but with CLEM FANDANGO being the only horse in the line up that I genuinely fear, ‘John’ is included in my Placepot mix again.

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Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Perfect Pasture (good)

1/2—Gracious John (good)

2/7—Classic Pursuit (good & good to soft)

 

2.50: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the six contests to date.  Recent winners QUICK LOOK and VAN GERWEN boast ticks in both of the trend boxes, whilst soft ground winner FANTASY KEEPER completes my trio against the field.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (11/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Musharrif

1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)

1/1—Jabbarockie (good to soft)

 

3.20: Scott Dixon has raided this venue to good effect this season whereby if you want to include an each alternative each way/Placepot option against hot favourite EBITDA, Scott’s SARABI would be the call.  Sarabi represents the four-year-old vintage which has claimed six of the last eleven renewals.  That said, EBITDA is the logical call from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only (7/2) favourite obliged in this event via the last eleven contests. That said, nne of the relevant winners scored at a top price of 10/1.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

3/23—Ambitious Icarus (good – good to soft – soft)

1/5—Coiste Bodhar (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by 2017 stats at the track and profit/loss to level stakes:

4 runners—John Gosden (3/18 – loss of 4 points)

3—Michael Appleby (7/57 – loss of 9 points)

3—Ralph Beckett (2/10 +4)

3—Scott Dixon (4/12 +32)

3—Mick Easterby (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—John Gallagher (1/7 +4)

3—William Haggas (2/11 +3)

2—Karl Burke (2/21 +13)

2—Roger Charlton (0/6)

2—Clive Cox (6/22 +2)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—David Evans (2/18 – loss of 7 points)

2—Richard Guest (0/20)

2—Roger Varian (4/23 – loss of 13 points)

2—Ed Walker (0/10)

2—Ian Williams (0/10)

+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

85 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £369.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £641.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £60.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 7th November

EXETER - NOVEMBER 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 placed)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 11 (Just A Sting) & 12 (Mance Rayder)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Dynamite Dollars) & 5 (Gaelic Prince)

Leg 3 (2.00): 6 (Politologue), 2 (Sir Valentino), 4 (Garde La Victoire)

Leg 4 (2.35): 3 (Barney Dwan), 2 (Ballyoptic) & 4 (De Dollar Man)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Above Board), 3 (Royal Palladium) & 1 (Ask The Weatherman)

Leg 6 (3.35): 4 (Arthur McBride) & 5 (Western Wave)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: Five-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and the trade press price of 11/4 about dual winner JUST A STING does not look realistic with the rain falling as I write this column in the west country.  Indeed, you should witness the latest news for yourself later this morning as the threat of showers (or longer spells of rain) are set to last until around lunchtime.  A course winner under soft conditions already (albeit in a bumper event), JUST A STING should get the best of the ground before plenty of runners on the card churn up the turf.  Rain will be welcomed by Philip Hobbs and the connections for their soft ground bumper winner MANCE RAYDER I fancy, given that the relevant Warwick victory was gained under soft conditions.  For the record, Philip has saddled three winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years.  SILVER KAYF will probably put his more varied experience to good use to secure the other Placepot position.

Favourite factor: The nine favourites have secured four gold, three silver and one bronze medal thus far.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Just A Sting (good to soft)

 

1.30: Paul Nicholls (DYNAMITE DOLLRS) leads Philip Hobbs (GAELIC PRINCE) 4-3 via the last ten renewals, whilst I implore you to look at the favourite stats below!  Market leaders boast a truly phenomenal record in this contest (as good as any race in the land I’ll wager) whereby I cannot look beyond this pair.  Only if the ground came up really soft by early afternoon would I be looking at adding Dessinateur into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Thirteen winning favourites have emerged at 1/6, 4/11, 4/9, 4/9, 4/7, Evens, 10/11, 8/13, 8/11, 11/8, 13/8, 7/4 and 15/8**, whilst the biggest priced scorer to date was returned at 8/1.  Eighteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, whilst favourites come to the gig on a 12 timer on this occasion!

 

2.00: Paul Nicholls has won five of the last nineteen ‘Haldon Gold Cup’ contests and significantly, POLITOLOGUE and San Benedeto were his only entries at the four day stage.   Tom George has been a thorn in Paul’s side relating to two of the last three renewals of this event, whereby SIR VALENTINO demands to be added into the mix.  10/1 is an attractive price to consider because although Tom’s progressive eight-year-old was winning this race on good going twelve months ago, his record under soft conditions is 3/6.  GARDE LA VICTOIRE was short headed by Sir Valentino last year and the Philip Hobbs representative looks sure to be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.  For the record, Richard Johnson’s mount is 4/6 on soft ground.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last nineteen years, whilst twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Nine winners have emerged from the front three horses in the betting during the last fifteen years.

Record of the course winners in the Haldon Gold Cup:

1/3—Sir Valentino (good)

1/2—Garde La Victoire (good to soft)

1/1—Politologue (heavy)

2/3—Vibrato Valtat (soft & heavy)

 

2.35: BARNEY DWAN was withdrawn from this event last year and with Fergal O’Brien boasting current stats of 7/17 of late (stats which have produced 26 points of level stake profit), Noel Fehily’s mount could take some stopping, especially with rain getting into the ground during the course of the day.  That said, BALLYOPTIC is already a Grade 1 winner over timber and having won a race ‘between the flags’ earlier in his career, the Twiston-Davies camp will be enthusiastic about his chance on his chase debut.  Let’s hope that both horses jump well enough to create a ‘best horse on the day’ success, whichever way the race pans out.  I’m also drawn towards DE DOLLAR MAN for Evan Williams, especially as the Vinnie Roe gelding is the only runner on the card for the stable.  Whatever the six-year-old achieves here will surely be improved upon later in the season.

Favourite factor: The three (8/15, 11/8 & 2/1) favourites have all won their respective events thus far.

 

3.05: Eight and nine-year-old’s have produced six of the ten winners to date with the ‘older set’ having secured four of the last eight contests.  Eight-year-old ASK THE WEATHERMAN is certainly included in my mix but then again, the 14/1 quote by a few bookmakers about the chance of nine-year-old ROYAL PALLADIUM is also catching the eye at the time of writing. Indeed, this is the race on the card which has just about kept the bookmakers afloat during the last decade, with six of the ten winners having been returned in double figures, ranging in price between 10/1 and 25/1.  At the other end of the spectrum, ABOVE BOARD looks a worthy favourite for those of you with less speculative tendencies.

Favourite factor: Five market leaders having finished in the frame to date (one winner) via ten renewals.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Royal Palladium (soft)

1/6—Wizards Bridge (soft)

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2/3—You Say What (good to soft & heavy)

1/6—Castarne (soft)

3/8—Only Gorgeous (good to firm – good – soft)

 

3.35: Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last nine renewals, with five-year-old WESTERN WAVE expected to lead home the relevant four entries on this occasion.  Tom George’s Westerner gelding might have to give best to ARTHUR MCBRIDE however, with the Twiston-Davies team seemingly having found a nice opportunity for their unexposed eight-year-old following a spin on the level just three weeks ago.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the eleven favourites have finished in the money (five of which won their respective events), via nine renewals to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Eddy (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by Exeter record this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Paul Nicholls (2/6 – loss of 1 point)

4—Sue Gardner (3/9 +12)

4—Colin Tizzard (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

3—Jack R Barber (No previous runners this season at Exeter)

3—Philip Hobbs (1/7 – Slight profit)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (No previous runners)

3—Tim Vaughan (0/5)

3—Venetia Williams (0/2)

3—Laura Young (No previous runners)

2—Kim Bailey (0/4)

2—Alexandra Dunn (No previous runners)

2—Tom George (0/3)

2—Mark Gillard (0/1)

2—Tom Lacey (1/3 – Slight profit)

2—Graeme McPherson (0/1)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/4)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/4)

2—Nick Williams (No previous runners)

2—Robert Walford (1/2 +1)

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Redcar: £109.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners –  placed – 1 unplaced

Kempton A/W: £35.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £330.60 - 8 favourites – 2 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 6th November

PLUMPTON – NOVEMBER 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (King Vince) & 4 (Parthenius)

Leg 2 (2.10): 7 (Roksana) & 4 (Naranja)

Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Cucklington), 2 (Velvet Cognac) & 5 (Dontminddboys)

Leg 4 (3.10): 5 (Searching), 2 (Fixed Rate) & 3 (Vive Le Roi)

Leg 5 (3.40): 6 (Firmount Glen), 3 (Red Square Revival) & 1 (Ben Arthur)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Quiz Master) & 8 (Posh Totty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: Four-year-olds have won eight renewals during the last decade whereby KING VINCE and PARTHENIUS are the first two names on the team sheet.  There is obvious respect for Alan King’s WILLIAM HUNTER though as a self-confessed ‘anorak’, I feel compelled to stick to the four-year-old raiders LONG VINCE and PARTHENIUS for openers.

Favourite factor: Favourites have finished in the frame in six of the last seven contests, statistics which include five winners.

 

2.10: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4-3 via eight renewals to date and ROKSANA and NARANJA should extend the lead between them in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  Am I Appropriate should secure a place again despite finishing only second in a poor event at Southwell at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 10/3, stats which include three winners.  Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

 

2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five events which brings lone vintage representative CUCKLINGTON straight into the mix.  Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding should become competitive in this low grade affair, hopefully scoring at the main expense of VELEVET COGNAC and DONTMINDDBOYS.  Plantagenet was ‘drifting like the proverbial barge’ on the exchanges at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include four winners.  Level stake punters (backing favourites to £100 units) would sit + £157.50 to date.

 

3.10: Gary Moore has saddled five winners at this corresponding meeting in as many years (next best trainers have secured just two races) and having greeted the inaugural winner twelve months ago, Gary’s SEARCHING is expected to maintain the trainer’s hold on the race despite his long absence from the track.  Others to consider include FIXED RATE and VIVE LE ROI.  Ding Ding would be an interesting 20/1 chance but for completely losing form of late.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Gary Moore trained) 3/1 favourite duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

3/10—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)

 

3.40: It is probably coincidental that FIRMOUNT GLEN is attempting to become the fourth consecutive eleven-year-old winner of this event though either way, Dan Skelton’s raider is very much the horse for money in the dead of night.  Ten different trainers (and jockeys) have won this race during the study period which does not help to assess the contest, though I’m adding RED SQUARE REVIVAL and BEN ARTHUR into the equation on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this race during the last decade, eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 9/2.  Five of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

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Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/9—Frank N Fair (good)

 

4.10: QUIZ MASTER is the last of Colin Tizzard’s sextet on the card, though one of his likelier winners in my book, despite the fact that there is tons of money for POSH TOTTY at 6.30 this morning as I begin to wind up this analysis.  Nothing else is attracting the eye this morning in the final leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have finished in the money via just two renewals to date.  This includes one winner who was returned as one of the five 9/2 co favourites in 2015!

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Mab Dab (good to firm)

2/7—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Colin Tizard (No previous runners at Plumpton this season)

4—David Bridgwater (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

3—Dan Skelton (1/4 – loss of 4 points)

3—Jamie Snowden (0/2)

2—Zoe Davidson (0/2)

2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners)

2—Chris Gordon (3/9 +7)

2—Anthony Honeyball (No previous runners)

2—Charlie Mann (1/1 +1)

2—Gary Moore (3/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—Seamus Mullins (2/6 +9)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Southwell (NH): £22.20 – 7 races – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £3.70 – 3 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced (Racing abandoned after three races due to several injured jockeys)

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 5th November

CARLISLE –   NOVEMBER 5

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £143.60 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Carlisle: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Count Meribel) & 3 (Aloomomo)

Leg 2 (1.30): 9 (Just Minded), 6 (Solstice Star) & 11 (Mister Whitaker)

Leg 3 (2.00): 7 (Versifier), 8 (Castletown) & 5 (Chozen)

Leg 4 (2.30): 12 (Cadeau George), 4 (Blameitalonmyroots), 2 (Abracadabra Sivola) & 10 (Waldorf Salad)

Leg 5 (3.05): 9 (Westend Story) & 3 (One For Harry)

Leg 6 (3.35): 3 (Belami Des Pictons), & 2 (Waiting Patiently)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals of this event though that said, six-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests. Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team in fine form as the world could see when landing the one-two result in the ‘Charlie Hall’ at Wetherby yesterday.  The penalty for winning here at Carlisle recently will make life tougher for Nigel’s COUNT MERIBEL from a win perspective but the five-year-old’s Placepot chance is there for all to see following a string of fine efforts leading up to his success.  Warren Greatrex is just getting his team back into top gear and ALOOMOMO can also be expected to figure prominently in grade/company.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have fallen the way of the favourites of one description or another.  Thirteen of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Count Meribel (soft)

 

1.30: This is ‘Trevor Hemming country’ and the famous green, yellow and white colours will be carried by Sue Smith’s JUST MINDED, the trainer having saddled plenty of winners at this corresponding meeting down the years.  Mick Channon has saddled 24 consecutive losers now and though I don’t expect MISTER WHITAKER to end the barren spell from a win perspective necessarily, Mick’s five-year-old (the youngest runner in the race) should be there or thereabouts turning for home.  Trainer Martin Keighley will still be ‘dining out’ after his Cheltenham double last weekend and stable staff could have another reason to celebrate with inmate SOLSTICE STAR boasting claims, especially with Richard Johnson booked to ride.

Favourite factor: Both (5/2 & 11/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s 11/4 market sneaked into the money via a bronze medal effort.

Record of the courses winners in the field:

1/1—Central Flame (soft)

1/1—Just Minded (good)

 

2.00: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via six renewals thus far whilst horses carrying 11-2 or more have secured twelve of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the six winners. Although potentially 16 ounces under the weight barriers via a jockey claim here, there will be worse outsiders on the card than five-year-old VERSIFIER from my viewpoint, with trainer Oliver Sherwood having saddled three winners at this meeting during the last five years.  Other five and six years to consider include CASTLETOWN and CHOZEN.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (via six renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (6/5, 7/4 & 3/1**) winners.

 

2.30: Ten of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whereby eleven of the fifteen runners could be eliminated if you take the stats at face value.  Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record having secured four of the last eight contests.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of CADEAU GEORGE, BLAMEITALONMYROOTS and ABRACADABRA SIVOLA.  This is such a tough race to call however, that I am adding WALDORF SALAD into the mix, especially having landed yesterday’s Wetherby dividend which boosted the coffers.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last fourteen years. Eight of the fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/6—Russe Blanc (soft)

 

3.05: ONE FOR HARRY won the first two (of three) renewals of this event but was missing from the declarations twelve months ago.  Trainer Nicky Richards secured a 12/1 double at Wetherby on Friday, now saddling three runners here at his local track on Sunday.  Nicky’s ONE FOR HARRY has secured six of his seven victories thus far between the months of November and January (inclusive) and from a Placepot perspective at least, I feel obliged to include Adam Nicol’s mount into the mix.  There is potential for suggesting that WESTEND STORY could be ‘thrown in’ on his handicap debut, despite having flattered to deceive for some time now following a great effort in the Championship Bumper at the Cheltenham festival last year.  SKY KHAN could outrun his odds by squeezing into the frame at a decent price.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, stats which include one (9/4) gold medallist.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

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2/6—One For Harry (good to soft & soft)

 

3.35: Although only four runners have been declared for the Placepot finale, it’s difficult to leave any one of these contenders out of the overnight mix, especially with two biggest priced runners hailing from top stables up here in the north.  That said, BELAMI DES PICTONS is well in according to the official figures, though WAITING PATIENTLY could prove to be a tough nut to crack, especially under his preferred (soft) conditions.  The fact that Malcolm Jefferson’s latter named raider is asked to give ‘Belami’ six pounds should bring the pair close together at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had secured Placepot positions (one winner) before last year’s 2/5 favourite was beaten in a two horse race.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Baywing (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Carlisle card on Sunday alongside stats for this season at the track with profit/loss figures to level stakes accrued:

4 runners—Sue Smith (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

3—Warren Greatrex (No previous runners this season)

3—Malcolm Jefferson (0/2)

3—Rebecca Menzies (0/3)

3—Nicky Richards (1/2 +3)

3—Lucinda Russell (0/5)

3—Venetia Williams (1/3 +2)

2—Mick Channon (No previous runners this season)

2—Keith Dalgleish (No previous runners this season)

2—Alex Hales (No previous runners this season)

2—Lisa Harrison (0/2)

2—Martin Keighley (No previous runners this season)

2—Donald McCain (2/14 – loss of 1 point)

2—Ben Pauling (No previous runners this season)

2—Dianne Sayer (No previous runners this season)

2—Michael Scudamore (0/1)

2—Oliver Sherwood (No previous runners this season)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/2 – Slight profit)

2—Tom Vaughan (1/3 – loss of 1 point)

2—John Wainwright (No previous runners this season)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: £18.10 – 9 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 4th November

WETHERBY – NOVEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,022.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 3 (Dalgany Demon), 4 (Krackatoa King) & 9 (Purcell’s Bridge)

Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Al Shahir) & 1 (Kalashnikov)

Leg 3 (1.30): 4 (The Nipper) & 1 (Born Survivor)

Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (La Bague Au Roi) & 6 (Lady Buttons)

Leg 5 (2.40): 2 (Wholestone), 6 (Ptit Zig) & 7 (Colin’s Sister)

Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Coneygree), 3 (Definitly Red) & 6 (Blacklion)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Seven of the ten renewals in recent times have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11 stones, statistics which point me in the general direction of the likes of DALGANY DEMON, KRACKATOA KING and PURCELL’S BRIDGE.  The latter named Rose Dobbin representative will have benefitted from any overnight rain (looks to have been the case via a radar reading during the dead of night), whilst noting that Rose’s ten-year-old raider has attracted some support on the exchanges.  The claiming pilot could take the weight into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap but then again, what is 16 ounces between friends?  Daklondike receives the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor:  Only four of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame during the last twelve years (via ten renewals).  The statistics include three (11/4, 7/4 & 11/8) winners, whilst the last nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/4--Tickenwolf (good)

1/6—Purcell’s Bridge (good soft)

1/6—Basford Ben (good to soft)

 

12.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen renewals (including seven of the last thirteen) whilst five-year-olds have notched eight victories in 'recent' times, with vintage representatives coming here on a five timer on this occasion.  Five-year-old AL SHAHIR is marginally preferred to four-year-old KALASHNIKOV this time around.  Overnight support is beginning to take shape for this pair over Ballymoy at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 11/1 (seven years ago).  14 of the 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1--Kalashnikov (god to soft)

 

1.35: It would be oh so easy for yours truly to insult your permutation limits by simply including all four runners here, enabling us to get through to the second half of the wager, had we been successful in the earlier races.  That would be wrong, whereby I am opting for the two principles in the betting market, without wishing to disregard the other pair if your bank balance is in a healthy state this morning.  For the record, THE NIPPER is marginally preferred to BORN SURVIVOR.  My main concern is how do I just justify (to myself) to include the other two talented horse in the perm?  If I did so, I would cheering them on because they will attract less units that the ‘principles’ which would be wrong because I’m firmly our camp (not just my own) in trying to win dividends for all concerned. The justification implores yours truly to offer just two selections accordingly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wetherby card

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Born Survivor (soft)

 

2.05: It looks as though that LADY BUTTONS might have conditions to suit her over Miss Night Owl, though whether either of them will cope with soft ground course winner LA BAGUE AU ROI is another matter entirely.  Miss Night Owl has (winning) seasonal advantage over the other pair and if Wetherby has swerved the worst of the rain I would definitely include the Tom George raider in the Placepot equation, which you should take into account when looking at ground conditions later this morning.  If the wet stuff has got into the ground however, I would prefer the ‘selected’ pair accordingly.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions (four winners) via ten renewals to date.  The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, eight of which were sent off at odds of 7/2 or less.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—La Bague Au Roi (soft)

2/4—Lady Buttons (good to soft & heavy)

 

2.40: Although I obviously offer respect to Lil Rockerfeller here, Neil King’s raider looks vulnerable at the quoted odds of 5/4 from my viewpoint.  I would imagine we might have to dip into the Doomsday Book to find the last time that Paul Nicholls only saddled one runner on this (Charlie Hall) card but that is the scenario this time around, with PTIT ZIG carrying the hopes of the Ditcheat team at Wetherby today.  It’s worth noting that Paul has won this event on the last three occasions when the yard has been represented.  WHOLESTONE is looking to make amends for the Twiston-Davies team which saddled the fallen favourite Ballyoptic in the race last year and they have found an ideal contender for such a task.  Then there is the mare COLIN’S SISTER to take into account at around the 16/1 mark, with Fergal O’Brien’s six-year-old very much in the mix from my viewpoint despite what the trade media commentator suggests this morning.  16/1 on easy ground would attract my win and place cash, should that going scenario be confirmed later this morning.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven renewals have been secured by favourites, whilst fifteen of the last sixteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

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3.15: CUE CARD and CONEYGREE offer fascinating rivalry here, a ‘match’ which people expected to witness last year, though the clash loses nothing for the twelve months that have passed.  That said, both horses ultimately will not have to serve their very best form up until March (possibly next month as well I guess if they take in Kempton on Boxing Day), whereas this will be the main event all season in all probability for the likes of DEFINITLY RED and the Twiston-Davies pair BLACKLION (fourth here last year) and BRISTOL DE MAI.  This trio would have to offer personal best efforts just to become involved in the finish however, whilst I can’t fancy any of the other contenders (Vieux De Lion the pick perhaps) in the field at this level. CUE CARD won this event two years ago before finding Irish Cavalier and Menorah too fit for him to handle when snaring the bronze prize twelve months ago.  If more rain than is forecast falls, the ‘courage’ of BLACKLION would have to be taken into account.  If not, CONEYGREE is arguably the call in a truly fascinating renewal of the first major prize of the season.  From a value for money perspective, I am leaving Cue Card out of the mix!  Sheer madness or a perceptive call?

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last seventeen years.  Twelve of the eighteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Charlie Hall’ (surely one of the best Placepot finales of all time!):

1/2—Cue Card (soft)

1/2—Definitly Red (good to soft)

1/3—Blacklion (heavy)

1/1—Village Vic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card (two or more) on Saturday with their number of winners (where relevant) at this corresponding (Charlie Hall) fixture during the last five years:

5 runners—Brian Ellison

4—Phil Kirby

4—Dan Skelton (1 winner)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Rose Dobbin

3—Tom George (1)

3—Warren Greatrex (2)

3—Neil King (1)

3—David Pipe

3—Colin Tizzard (2)

2—Declan Carroll

2—Micky Hammond

2—Philip Hobbs (2)

2—Richard Hobson

2—Fergal O’Brien

2—Sue Smith

2—Tim Vaughan

1—Paul Nicholls (6)

+ 20 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £143.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Ascot: £1,230.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Ayr: £145.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

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