Placepot Pointers – Monday May 29

LEICESTER – MAY 29

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2016: £79.50 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 6 (Waves), 10 (Whitely) & 1 (Sister Dude)

Leg 2 (2.40): 8 (Log Off), 4 (Sir Jack) & 1 (Cockney Boy)

Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Boots And Spurs), 6 (Ripoli) & 9 (Frank Bridge)

Leg 4 (3.50): 8 (So Sleek) & 3 (Doreen)

Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ejaaby) & 5 (Parfait)

Leg 6 (5.00): 2 (Amber Mystique) & 4 (Indigo Princess)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Bank Holiday Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.05: Eve Johnson Houghton has her horses running to fine each way effect just now, whereby the chance of WAVES is respected, particularly after her Bath victory on soft ground recently.  If plenty of rain falls between now and flag fall, I would be confident of WAVES ‘following up’, otherwise the likes of WHITELEY and SISTER DUDE could take advantage to winning effect.  There was plenty of money for WHITELEY after I has made a big case for Mick Channon’s Dark Angel filly the last day and if she enjoys better luck in running here, it could just be her day.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.

Record of course winner in the opening event:

2/7—Imperial Link (soft & heavy)

 

2.40: Eight of the last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2, which rules out three of the top six in the handicap, the other trio towards the top of the list qualifying via potential jockey claims.  LOG OFF receives plenty of weight to the point where the David Evans raider is the call, with David still sending out plenty of winners.  SIR JACK and COCKNEY BOY are feared most.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last nine renewals during which time, seven winners scored at a top price of 7/2.  Seven of the last eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winner in the second contest:

1/6—Scent Of Power (good to firm)

 

3.15: Scott Dixon (BOOTS AND SPURS) had saddled four of his last six runners to gold and silver medal effect (two of each) at the time of writing, whereby his eight-year-old raider is offered up as the each way call in the contest.  The race will not take a great deal of winning however, which also brings the likes of RIPOLI and FRANK BRIDGE into the equation.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite finished out with the washing.

Record of course winner in the third race:

1/2—Showboating (good to firm)

 

3.50: Just when you thought there were no crocodiles left in the water, a 16/1 ‘snapper’ bit punters where it hurts most twelve months ago.  The four-year-old ended the three-year-old monopoly in the contest but hoping that the race reverts to type here, I’ll opt for SO SLEEK who looks to have found a fine chance to score by trainer Luca Cumani.  DOREEN could prove to be the pick of the opposition in a race in which the declared fillies have hardly set the world alight thus far.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have finished in the frame, three of which won at 11/10-4/7-4/9, with one of the others (4/7) having snared a silver medal.  Last year’s 4/6 favourite let the side down however, with detectives still looking for the jolly.

 

4.25: All eleven winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminates the bottom five runners in the field. The respective blue silks of ‘Hamdan’ and Godolphin could have a stranglehold in this event with their representatives EJAABY and PARFAIT having been declared by their respective trainers, namely Roger Varian and John Gosden.  As a winner of two of his last three races, respect is shown to Scorching Heat who ranks as ‘third best’ from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last eleven years, whilst seven of the last ten market leaders snared Placepot positions.  Nine of the eleven winners during the study period scored at a top price of 9/1.

Record of course winner in the fifth event on the card:

1/2—Sayesse (good to firm)

 

5.00: Four-year-olds have landed four of the nine renewals and AMBER MYSTIQUE and INDIGO PRINCESS are likely to represent yours truly in the Placepot finale on Bank Holiday Monday.  Although the Sakhee filly AMBER MISTIQUE won her only race on an all-weather surface thus far, her two efforts on turf have resulted in Placepot ‘successes’ whereby Tony Hamilton’s mount is the first name on the team sheet in the ‘lucky last’.  Michael Appleby puts a seven pound claimer aboard INDIGO PRINCESS, even though his recent Nottingham winner was only given a two pound hike for the relevant victory.

Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via nine contests during the last eleven years, though all nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/1.  Five of the twelve market leaders finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Bank Holiday Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—David Evans (0/4)

3—Michael Appleby (0/4)

3—Mick Channon (0/3)

2—Andrew Balding (1/3 – slight loss)

2—Tony Carroll (0/4)

2—Scott Dixon (No runners)

2—Brian Ellison (0/2)

2—Richard Fahey (1/11 – loss of 4 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (1/5 – level profit/loss)

2—Daniel Mark Loughnane (1/3 – Profit of 6 points)

2—Laura Mongan (No runners)

2—William Muir (0/1)

2—John O’Shea (0/1)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (0/3)

2—Mark Tompkins (No runners)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Redcar: £133.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Windsor: £168.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Cartmel: £113.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Huntingdon: £276.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: No corresponding meeting found

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday May 28

FONTWELL – MAY 28

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2016: £20.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 2 (Decimus), 5 (Night Generation) & 1 (Kayla)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Code Of Law), 3 (Goonjim) & 4 (Denny Kerrell)

Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (The Wicket Chicken) & 4 (Welluptoscratch)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Kilfinichen Bay), 3 (Caulfields Venture) & 5 (Set List)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Londonia), 3 (Krystal Hart) & 1 (Midnight Jitterbug)

Leg 6 (4.35): 1 (Venetian Lad) & 2 (Celtic Tune)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Course winner DECIMUS is attractively priced at 8/1 by the trade press guys and as a seven time winner on all types of ground, Jeremy Scott’s raider is the first name on the Placepot team sheet.  The ground might lack enough moisture in the ground for Ballyheigue Bay, whereby stable companion NIGHT GENERATION is preferred alongside KAYLA.

Favourite factor: The two gold medallists to date have snared gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the opening race:

1/2--Decimus (good)

2/5—Ballyheigue Bay (good & soft)

1/2—Lillian (good)

 

2.25: Five of the seven winners thus far have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones which leaves just two horses to assess if we take the stats seriously, given that the other ‘qualifier’ via the weight trend is eliminated by the jockey’s potential claim.  Neil Mulholland boasts an impressive 27% strike rate at the track during the last five years whereby CODE OF LAW is the call over GOONJIM.  Neil secured a 362/1 treble on the card last year for good measure, notwithstanding a 16/1 gold medallist the year before!  Now and then however we have to waver a little regarding the trends, especially with DENNY KERRELL sitting just 16 ounces adrift of the ‘superior’ handicap mark.

Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.

 

2.55: Five and six-year-olds have both snared three of the seven renewals between them which suggests that THE WICKET CHICKEN might have the edge over SEVEN NATION ARMY.  The latter named raider has won here at Fontwell but not over timber, something he has yet to put right via no less than 16 relevant assignments.  THE WICKET CHICKEN is another Mulholland raider boasting genuine claims on the card.  David Arbuthnot has been known to snare swag in this type of race before now and WELLUPTOSCRATCH could live up to his name in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last six renewals, whilst six market leaders have finished in the frame via seven contests.  The only 'jolly' to miss out was a Paul Nicholls favourite which was sent off at the shortest price of all the favourites at 4/11.

Record of course winner in the third event:

1/1—Seven Nation Army (soft)

 

3.30: Even though only five runners have been declared, this could arguably be considered the toughest race on the card, especially from a Placepot perspective given the nature of its ‘short field’ status.  Charlie Longsdon has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect and in declaring KILFINICHEN BAY, Charlie runs his only inmate during the whole of the Bank Holiday weekend.  Emma Lavelle saddles two horses and given that Keltus (Paul Nicholls) will represent anything but good value in Placepot terms, I’ll opt for Emma’s pair CAULFIELDS VENTURE and SET LIST to add to Kilfinichen Bay in my Placepot mix. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have gained Placepot positions via gold and silver medals to date. That said, nine of the ten available Placepot positions have been claimed by horses sent off at a top price of 7/1.

Fontwell record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/3—Caulfields Venture (good)

1/2—Adam De Breteau (good)

 

4.05: Charlie Deutsch negates three of the six pound penalty given to LONDONIA via his useful claim, with Graeme McPherson’s only runner on the card fancied to follow up the Towcester win successfully.  KRYSTAL HART is slightly preferred to MIDNIGHT JITTERBUG as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one successful (9/2**) favourite.

 

4.35: VENETIAN LAD is well into the veteran stage now but as his record at Fontwell shows below, the twelve-year-old can rarely be dismissed at this venue.  I expect CELTIC TUNE to flatter to deceive from a win perspective as is usually the case, though his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  FINISH THE STORY is offered up as the overnight reserve.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite snared a Placepot position behind the 16/1 winner.

Fontwell record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

7/35—Venetian Lad (4 x soft – 2 x good to soft + good)

1/8--Flugzeug (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Sunday – followed by their five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

6—Seamus Mullins (10/106 – loss of 10 points)

4—Chris Gordon (35/229 – loss of 14 points)

4—Neil Mulholland (29/106 – Profit of 21 points)

4—Jeremy Scott (6/43 – loss of 18 points)

3—Alexandra Dunn (5/33 – loss of 11 points)

2—Nick Gifford (6/54 – loss of 15 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (6/30 – Profit of 8 points)

2—Gary Moore (41/261 (loss of 14 points)

2—Helen Nelmes (1/31 – loss of 14 points)

2—Daniel O’Brien (1/20 – loss of 11 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (10/39 – Profit of 3 points)

2—John O’Shea (3/18 – loss of 4 points)

+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kelso: £12.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £1,117.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday May 27

CHESTER – MAY 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £388.00 (7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 9 (Musical Terms), 10 (Highland Pass & 7 (Mac O’Polo)

Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Rose Berry), 8 (Turanga Leela) & 10 (Socialites Red)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Sound Advice), 5 (Fastnet Tempest) & 1 (Hillbilly Boy)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Mubajal) & 7 (Dark Intention)

Leg 5 (4.15): 2 (Headway) & 6 (Yafta)

Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (The Otmoor Poet), 3 (Emperor Napolean) & 4 (Sir Valentine)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: Mr Tyrrell has had more chances than my mother-in-law and from stall ten, Richard Hannon’s representative enters my ‘last chance saloon’ and whilst that might sound harsh from his car park draw, my other ‘mum’ wasn’t given as many chances!  HIGHLAND PASS ran a decent race (after being bumped at the start) in a race here at the big meeting a few weeks ago from a better draw (three as opposed to today’s seven box), whereby Andrew Balding can carry on the good form at this popular track having boasted 2/10 stats earlier in the month.  MUSICIAL TERMS (9) is another runner having to give ground away at the start but that said, connections could hardly have found a better race for the The Queen’s Shamardal colt to score at the second time of asking.  Tom Dascombe saves a lot of his ‘superior’ juveniles for this venue whereby any money for MAC O’POLO (5) would have to be followed, from a Placepot perspective at the very least.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out with the washing.

 

2.30: Three of the last six runners saddled by Chris Dwyer have won and it would come as no surprise if ROSE BERRY improves the ratio still further in this grade/company from trap five.  The three-year-old is the only stable representative running until Monday at the earliest whereby the recent Thirsk winner is fancied to land his first success beyond the minimum trip.  TURANGA LEELA (2) and SOCIALITES RED (6) are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 duly obliged before last year’s 9/4 market got lost around the bends on the Roodee.

Chester record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Turanga Leela (good)

 

3.05: SOUND ADVICE (a winner of four his six races at Chester) cannot be left out of the overnight equation from stall 6/12, whilst HILLBILLY BOY (8) is another course specialist who might be a better price than expected because of the occupied stall.  FASTNET TEMPEST holds pole position and the William Haggas raider completes my trio against the other nine contenders.  MY TARGET (2) won five of his eight assignments away from turf in the ’close season’.  Some showers might hit Chester overnight which makes Michael Wigham’s Newmarket (good ground) winner (1/10 on grass) a possibility if the wet stuff takes some of the sting out of the ground by the time that flag fall arrives.

Favourite factor: The inaugural frame was filled by horses returned at 8/1-12/1-9/1, with the 3/1 market leader missing out on a Placepot position two years back.  We still await the first successful favourite, with one of the two 4/1 joint market leaders finished second twelve months ago.

Chester record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/5—Hillbilly Boy (2 x good & good to soft)

4/6--Sound Advice (both on good ground)

1/3—Above The Rest (good to soft)

1/3—Ice Slice (good)

1/2—Penwortham (good)

 

3.40: Four-year-olds have won four of the seven renewals to date and with four vintage representatives on parade, I’ll opt for MUBAJAL to get the better of DARK INTENTION and WORLDS HIS OYSTER close home.  Trainer Owen Burrows (MUBAJAL) saddled a welcome winner at Haydock on Friday and like London buses now that one has arrived, another could soon follow.

Favourite factor: Just one (7/2) favourite has prevailed via seven renewals to date.  Five of the eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Chester record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/7—Fast Dancer (good to firm)

1/6—Dark Intention

 

4.15: HEADWAY should go one better following a fine Newbury debut effort, providing that rain steers clear of the Chester area, such was his good run under fast conditions at the Berskhire venue.  William Haggas has already saddled a couple of juvenile winners from just a handful of runners in the sector and with any normal amount of improvement forthcoming, Kevin Stott should ride his sixth winner on turf this season.  YAFTA is feared most, for all that the Hannon two-year-olds are seemingly needing a second run this season to give of their best early season form.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Chester card.

 

4.50: Four-year-olds have won three of the last six contests, whilst 5/7 gold medallists thus far have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  THE OTMOOR POET is the only horse which possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes on this occasion and the Alex Hales raider represents some value around the 14/1 mark this morning.  Others to consider include EMPEROR NAPOLEAN and SIR VALENTINE.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite following seven renewals, whilst only one market leader has finished in the frame to date.

Chester record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/13--Gabrial's King (good)

2/4—Rowlestone Lass (good and good to firm)

2/7—Snowy Dawn (good & good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chester card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Andrew Balding (2/10 – Profit of 22 points)

4—Richard Fahey (0/13)

3—Owen Burrows (No runners)

3—Tom Dascombe (1/16 – loss of 12 points)

3—William Haggas (No runners)

3—Richard Hannon (1/5)

3—Mark Johnston (0/9)

3—Ian Williams (0/5)

3—Lisa Williamson (0/1)

2—David Barron (No runners)

2—Tony Coyle (0/3)

2—Keith Dalgleish (1/3 – Profit of 10 points)

2—Scott Dixon (No runners)

2—David Evans (1/7 – loss of 2 points)

2—Steph Hollinshead (0/1)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

67 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Goodwood: £34.70 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 1 palced – 3 unplaced

Haydock: £68.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Salisbury: £61.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

York: £34.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Cartmel: £23.00 – 8 favourites – 5 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Ffos Las: £44.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday May 27

PONTEFRACT – MAY 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.50 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (6.30): 3 (Mon Beau Visage), 8 (Interlink), 12 (Whitkirk) & 6 (Be Kool)

Leg 2 (7.00): 5 (Pumblechook), 2 (Mutadaffeq) & 11 (Mysterial)

Leg 3 (7.30): 5 (Rufus King) & 1 (Havana Star)

Leg 4 (8.00): 2 (Tumblewind), 8 (Grandad’s World) & 4 (Stanghow)

Leg 5 (8.30): 6 (Babamunchkin) & 7 (Bonnie Arlene)

Leg 6 (9.00): 7 (Romanticism) & 2 (Benjamin Thomas)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

6.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the ten races contested during the last eleven years, whilst eight gold medallists carried nine stones or more. Vintage representatives completly dominated the finish last year, two of the three horses filling the frame carrying the relevant weights. INTERLINK (drawn 6/14 – low numbers best at Pontefract) is close enough to the rail to figure prominently, whilst others to consider include MON BEAU VISAGE (2) and BE COOL (11).  Brian Ellison’s last named raider is high enough in the stall numbers though as this race is over a mile, Cam Hardie has enough time to negotiate the best route for the Approve gelding.  WHITKIRK (9) receives the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Pontfract record of course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Still On Top (good)

2/11--Talent Scout (good & good to firm)

 

7.00: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1, whilst four-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests. PUMBLECHOOK and MUTADAFFEQ appear to be the pick of the four-year-olds with the first named runner making his debut for the Mark Johnston team following a gelding operation.  A course and distance winner on fast ground already, PUMBLECHOOK looks the value for money each way call in the contest from my viewpoint.  Front line contender MYSTERIAL is well enough housed in trap three to lead these a merry dance under the prevailing conditions, especially with Declan Carroll’s horses running well at this moment in time.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have claimed seven of the last nine contests, whilst seven of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Pontefract record of course winners in the second race:

1/2--Hernandoshideaway (good)

1/1—Pumblechook (good to firm)

1/3—Ingleby Hollow (good to firm)

1/3—Mysterial (good to firm)

 

7.30: It’s not often that I highlight a particular bookmaker for being ‘out on a limb’ regarding a price (especially in juvenile events), though that is the case with Bet365 this morning as they offer Mark Johnston’s RUFUS KING (the stable won the race twelve months ago) at 5/1 with just 3/1 chalked up by another layer in a ‘short field’ contest. It’s worth noting that Mark’s Iffraaj colt receives four pounds from the top three in the list, two of which are trained by Richard Fahey which makes the race anything but easy to assess.  Both of Richard’s youngsters won on debut but were beaten at the second time of asking, whereby I might desert the pair in favour of HAVANA STAR who was a decent winner at Beverley despite showing obvious inexperience.  Connections successfully took the same route with a Beverley winner in this race just two years ago. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Eight renewals had slipped by since the last favourite obliged before last year’s 3/10 market leader scored for Mark Johnston. Six of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame, whilst horses returned at a top price of 9/2 have secured seven of the ten contests.

 

8.00: STANGHOW has a stall ten position to overcome if the Antony Britain raider is to retain his crown.  Carrying five pounds more on this occasion, I could still fancy the five-year-old to become competitive if avoiding traffic problems, especially as his last two victories were gained in different ways, coming from off the pace in this event last year, whilst subsequently making all to win at Thirsk.  His two previous victories were gainer either way as well which suggests a fast break form his wide draw is not totally essential.  Those drawn nearer the rail might be led home by the likes of GRANDAD’S WORLD (6/12 – unbeaten is two assignments here) and TUMBLEWIND (3 – dropped in grade).

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 market leader was ‘short headed’ by Stanghow who scored at odds of 12/1.

Pontefract record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/2--Stanghow (good)

1/3—Highly Sprung (good to firm)

2/2—Grandad’s World (good & good to soft)

2/3—Oriental Relation (2 x good to firm)

2/9—Silvanus (good to firm & soft)

 

8.30: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals whereby it is slightly surprising that just three vintage raiders have been declared this time around.  BABAMUNCHKIN is preferred to BONNIE ARLENE and NAVAJO THUNDER.

Favourite factor: Three winning favourites have been recorded via ten renewals during the last eleven years, with three of the last seven market leaders having claimed Placepot positions.

 

9.00: Ignore the 5/2 trade press quote about ROMANTICISM who is likely to go off nearer the 6/5 mark if early interest is maintained.  If you are not convinced that the two quotes are different enough to make you sit up and take notice, the differential is similar to a horse which is backed from 5/1 to 2/1.  Sir Michael Stoute’s raider is the first name on the team sheet accordingly, followed by BENJAMIN THOMAS representing John Quinn who (seemingly) carries northern hopes in the finale.

Favourite factor: Just two contests to report to date which were won by the 13/8 and even money market leaders.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David O’Meara (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

5—Mick Easterby (2/9 – level on the year)

5—Richard Fahey (2/17 – loss of 12 points)

4—Michael Appleby (0/3)

4—Mark Johnston (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (0/8)

2—Declan Carroll (0/2)

2—Ivan Furtado (No runners)

2—Richard Guest (2/6 – Profit of 25 points)

2—Lynn Siddall (No runners)

2—Karen Tutty (0/1)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £367.30 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

Goodwood: £865.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Haydock: £68.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 placed

Musselburgh: £84.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Worcester: £601.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 25

SANDOWN – MAY 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £311.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (6.00): 10 (Silver Ghost), 4 (Boycie), 5 (Icebuster) & 12 (The Major)

Leg 2 (6.30): 5 (Sound And Silence), 2 (Frozen Angel) & 1 (Chagati)

Leg 3 (7.05): 5 (Vent de Force), 2 (Big Orange) & 4 (Higher Power)

Leg 4 (7.35): 8 (So Mi Dar) & 7 (Chain Of Daisies)

Leg 5 (8.10): 5 (Zainhom) & 2 (Rodaini)

Leg 6 (8.40): 10 (Timeless Art), 9 (Makzeem) & 8 (Midhmaar)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

 

6.00: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 28 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five of the last eight winners (16/1-10/1-13/2-9/2*-7/2). There are seven representatives to assess this year, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be SILVER GHOST, BOYSIE and THE MAJOR.  The trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  If the vintage trend goes base over apex on this occasion, ICEBUSTER could claim another course victory.

Favourite factor: The ten favourites thus far have snared give gold, one silver and a bronze medal between them.

Record of the course winners in the opening race: 

1/5—Icebuster (good)

1/2—Kath’s Legacy (good to firm)

1/7—Jack Of Dimaonds (good)

 

6.30: ’Team Hannon’ has celebrated victory in six of the last ten renewals of the National Stakes though that said, the stable has also saddled four beaten favourites in the contest since 2009.  Perhaps that is the reason that the team is not represented this year, though I have left the stats in for my (our) records.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that although Charlie Appleby’s impressive unbeaten run with his early juveniles has ended, SOUND AND SILENCE justified favouritism at Newmarket on the first day at school and though the Exceed And Excel colt faces a tough opponent here in FROZEN ANGEL, I will stick with the unbeaten form line tonight.  Tom Dascombe (Frozen Angel) does not run many two-year-olds at the track which you can look at in two different ways.  All eight of his juveniles have been beaten here during the last five years but on the other hand, the trainer must think a great deal of his impressive Ascot winner to take on this difficult assignment.  CHAGATI is the potential big improver in the field, albeit his Bath victory leaves a lot to work on in respect of the opposition.  Clive Cox does not tilt at windmills too often with ‘no-hopers’ whereby CHAGATI is included in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Five of the last nineteen favourites have won whilst ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

7.05: Four-year-olds have won 16 of the last 32 renewals, despite the fact that the vintage is not always represented.  Even now, just one four-year-old has been offered the green light, namely the 40/1 outsider Berghain.  Regular readers will know that staying events leave yours truly luke-warm at best, and this is another contest which failed to light the blue touch paper from my viewpoint.  If we have to bank on the likes of BIG ORANGE to justify favouritism in a Group 3 event then we are in trouble and that is the scenario that has been set before us on this occasion.  At 12/1, VENT DE FORCE make more appeal (especially) from an each way/Placepot perspective, particularly as Hughie Morrison has his horses in good nick just now, four of his last eleven runners having scored.  HIGHER POWER is named ahead of Quest For More in receipt of seven pounds from the long standing Roger Charlton raider.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions in the Group 3 ‘Henry II’, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Henry II’ contest: 

2/3—Vent De Force (good to firm & good to soft)

 

7.40: Four and five-year-olds have dominated this ‘Brigadier Gerard’ event of late, securing 16 of the last 20 renewals between them.  Four-year-olds lead the way with 13 victories during the extended study period, which includes eleven of the last fifteen contests.  SO MI DAR was pulled out of a race at York last week and these conditions are far more favourable in what appears to be an easier contest.  As long as she does not appear too fresh in the preliminaries (she can pull hard through her races), all should be well en route to better things this summer.  Autocratic deserves another chance at this level, though slight preference is for five-year-old CHAIN OF DAISIES in terms of being the main threat to SO MI DAR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last 17 favourites have won this Group 3 contest, whilst ten of the market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

Sandown record of course winners in the ‘Brigadier Gerard’: 

1/1—Autocratic (good to firm)

1/1—Baydar (good to soft)

1/1—Chain Of Daisies (good to firm)

 

8.10: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled three of the last eleven winners, notwithstanding his all-time record in the contest (by a big margin) given Michael's ten successes down the years.  ZAINHOM has been offered the green light on this occasion, though this is a tough enough ask on just his fifth assignment.  That said, Michael's Street Cry colt was a good winner at York last year (albeit under softer conditions), whereby Jim Crowley’s mount is expected to score from RODAINI.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this Listed event during the last twenty years. Fourteen of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

8.40: Four-year-olds have claimed 15 of the last 24 gold medals (including nine of the last fifteen) and the pick of the vintage representatives on this occasion should prove to be TIMELESS ART, MAKZZEM and MIDHMAAR in a fascinating toteplacepot finale.  Karl Burke’s northern raider TIMELESS ART (9/1 in places) is the value for money call from a win perspective, especially with five pound claimer Clifford Lee in the saddle, the young pilot having steered two of his last seven mounts to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 13 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Nine of the last thirteen favourites have claimed six gold and three silver medals between them, though it’s worth pointing out that an 8/13 chance was one of the beaten market leaders.

Sandown record of course winners in the Placepot finale: 

2/7—Secret Art (good & soft)

2/2—Sir Roderic (Good & good to soft)

1/4—Laidback Romeo (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Richard Hannon (0/5)

3—Rod Millman (No runners)

2—Michael Bell (No runners)

2—Karl Burke (No runners)

2—Henry Candy (No runners)

2—Roger Charlton (1/1 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Clive Cox (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Ed Dunlop (No runners)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/4)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (1/2 – Profit of 2 points)

2—James Tate (No runners)

2—Chris Wall (0/1)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £111.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Goodwood: £121.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Warwick: £121.90 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £37.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday May 24

AYR – MAY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £347.90 (10 favourites: 3 winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ayr: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Noble Manner) & 1 (Bustam)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Duncan Of Scotland) & 6 (Lizzy’s Dream)

Leg 3 (3.20): 6 (Secret City), 4 (Bahamian Sunshine) & 5 (Dutch Dream)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Tylery Wonder), 6 (Royal Brave) & 8 (Tommy G)

Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Gilded Refection), 10 (Jay Kay) & 1 (Dark Devil)

Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Royal Regent), 11 (Miningrocks) & 14 (Arithmetic)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Don’t be surprised if Sir Walter comes on a bundle for her effort in the ‘Lily Agnes’ when thrown in at the deep end at Chester the other week, albeit more logical winners include NOBLE MANNERS (unusually Mark Johnston’s only runner on the card) and BUSTAM.  The latter named John Quinn newcomer is on offer at varying prices at the time of writing, as short as 9/4 in a place but as big as 7/2 elsewhere.  If the bookmakers are struggling, what chance have we got!

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite could only finish fifth of six.

 

2.50: Last year’s 9/1 winner (Hab Reeh) was short listed though a shorter priced winner is expected to be recorded today with DUNCAN OF SCOTLAND having been declared.  Lee Smyth’s (good to firm) course and distance winner should have too many guns for the opposition in this grade/company, the pick of which might prove to be LIZZY’S DREAM.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 4/1 joint favourites finished in the frame without winning the respective event.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/3—Duncan Of Scotland (good to firm)

7/46—Goinodaethat (4 x soft + good/Good to soft/good to firm)

 

3.20: SECRET CITY is another Rebecca Bastiman raider on the card with each way claims (as was Lizzy’s Dream in the previous race on the card), especially with fast ground in evidence for this three time course winner.  Others to consider over your breakfast include BAHAMIAN SUNSHINE and DUTCH DREAM.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three inaugural 9/2 co favourites secured a Placepot position, with a 33/1 winner having been recorded.

Record of course winner in the third event on the card:

3/8—Secret City (2 x good to firm + good)

 

3.50: Jim Goldie is a ‘one off’ trainer and no mistake and once again, the trainer has put the cat amongst the pigeons here by dropping his recent seven furlong winner down to contesting a race over the minimum trip!  TOMMY G is the relevant horse in the contest and if anything is making ground up on the leaders at the business end of proceedings, surely Jim’s four-year-old raider will be the one from a Placepot perspective.  Others that will have been committed for home earlier in the contest should include TYLERY WONDER and ROYAL BRAVE.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite could only finish fifth of six.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/4—Rural Celebration (good to soft)

2/5—Dark Defender (Good & soft)

1/1—Invisible Ridge (good to soft)

1/1—Tommy G (good to firm)

 

4.20: The 20/1 on offer about four time course winner JAY KAY looks far too big from my viewpoint, albeit the ground will be plenty lively enough for Karl Burke’s representative.  GILDED REFELCTION is an interesting southern raider, whilst DARK DEVIL completes my trio against the remaining eight contenders.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ayr programme.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

3/11—Le Chat D’Or (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/7—Nicholas T (good to firm)

1/1—Inexes (good to soft)

4/8—Jay Kay (2 x good & 2 x soft)

 

4.50: Eleven of the twelve horses to have secured toteplacepot positions to date carried a maximum weight of 9-3, statistics which include all four winners.  Nine of the fourteen runners fit the bill on this occasion, as does one other in all probability via a jockey claim, ROYAL REGENT being the potential outsider in question.  If you do not believe that trainers are creatures of habit, consider the following fact.  ROYAL REGENT represents Lucy Normile who adopts exactly the same stance in terms of the weight allotted to her course and distance winner (via the jockey claim) which finished third at 18/1 twelve months ago. Other potential winners down the handicap include MININGROCKS and ARITHMETIC according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Only two of the six market leaders (winners of their respective events at 4/1 & 3/1) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far via four renewals.

Ayr record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Spes Nostra (good to soft)

2/7—Royal Regent (2 x soft)

2/14—Gworn (good to soft & soft)

1/2—Miningrocks (good to soft)

1/3—Trinity Star (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ayr card on Wednesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—Jim Goldie (54/505 – loss of 51 points)

8—Keith Dalgleish (43/350 – Profit of 10 points)

6—Michael Dods (21/210 – loss of 44 points)

5—Linda Parratt (22/285 – loss of 47 points)

5—Kevin Ryan (12/141 – loss of 59 points)

4—Ian Jardine (12/72 – Profit of 6 points)

4—Lee Smyth (2/19 – Profit of 1 point)

3—Rebecca Bastiman (2/26 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Eric Alston (3/25 – loss of 10 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (loss of 6 points)

2—Karl Burke (19/96 – Profit of 11 points)

2—Ruth Carr (17/142 – loss of 6 points)

2—Ann Duffield (1/46 – loss of 20 points)

2—Declan Carroll (4/17 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Kieran P Cotter (No runners)

2—Richard Fahey (28/322 – loss of 78 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—Lucy Normile (8/41 – Profit of 80 points)

2—John David Riches (2/18 – Profit of 6 points)

2—R Mike Smith (6/81 – loss of 30 points)

2—Mark Walford (0/2)

2—Alistair Whillans (6/102 – loss of 39 points)

+ 10 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

82 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield (Turf): £30.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Yarmouth: No corresponding meeting

Southwell (NH): £67.30 -6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton (A/W): £591.60 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday May 23

NOTTINGHAM – MAY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £19.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Panophobia), 7 (Zain Flash) & 1 (Global Exceed)

Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Abiento), 6 (Glacier Point) & 4 (Captain Hawk)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Coeur De Lion) & 2 (Chelsea’s Boy)

Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Carol), 2 (Di Alta) & 1 (Celestation)

Leg 5 (4.00): 7 (Stararchitecture) & 5 (Maratha)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Dragons Voice), 6 (Mach One) & 1 (Al Nafoorah)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Just in case readers suspect I might have forgotten to include the Nottingham course winners today, there are none well at least, not in the Placepot races on the card.  Only Richard Fahey can truly be accused of being in form (seven of his last thirty runners have won) relating to the represented trainers in the field whereby PANOPHOBIA (the fear of everything!) is the tentative call.  A half-brother to a five furlong juvenile winner, Richard’s Bated Breath colt has an entry in a big Doncaster race at the back end of the season.  It’s unusual for David Evans to wait over six weeks to run a juvenile again after it has shown plenty of promise on debut, and that is the slight worry relating to ZAIN FLASH, that and the fact that nothing that ran behind the runner up at Leicester has shown any subsequent form worth noting.  GLOBAL EXCEED (somewhat predictably) completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: Five horses in the handicap (includes one via a claiming jockey) appear to have plenty to do, given that all nine winners have carried at least 8-11 thus far.  Six of the last eight winners have been burdened with a minimum of 9-1 which cuts two more out of the reckoning if you want to go down that route, leaving just five declarations to choose from.  Hopefully ABIENTO, GLACIER POINT and CAPTAIN HAWK will lead the other pair home.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader given that gold medallists to date have been returned at 25/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1.  Only three of the ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

 

3.00: Five-year-olds have won four of the eight contests whilst vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago. Trainers don’t appear to have wanted the ‘edge’ this time around however as for the second time in four years, vintage representatives are on the missing list.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that Alan King has saddled five of his last seventeen runners to winning effect which suggests that his seventh placed Triumph Hurdle raider COEUR DE LION should go close to winning this weak event, compared to the Cheltenham Festival contest at last.  Yes, Alan’s dual hurdle winner would have been a stronger fancy had he had timber to negotiate though that said, only CHELSEA’S BOY makes any appeal of the remaining seven entries.  I’ve just noticed that the first three races have produced horses fancied to win with the number five on their saddlecloth.  I can’t remember much that happened yesterday, but I can recall trap two winning the first seven races when I was at Wembley one evening two hundred years ago, when just eight contests were featured on the card!  The eighth trap two runner that night – finished second.

Favourite factor: The eight favourites to date have secured four gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.

 

3.30: All eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at 5/1.  CAROL is pretty exposed compared to some rivals here but Ed Dunlop’s Acclamation filly has proved consistent enough to be taken seriously in this grade/company.  Mark Johnston is due to hit top form any time now with the Royal Ascot meeting less than a month away whereby CELESTATION warrants respect, with good to soft winner DI ALTA also entering the Placepot equation.  Marilyn would have been in the mix but for hovering sixteen ounces below the ‘superior’ weight barrier.  If you are going to have ‘anorak’ tendencies (like yours truly) you have to adhere to them, on the majority of occasions at least.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).

 

4.00: Five of the last six favourites have won representing top yards and there is every chance that STARARCHITECTURE (William Haggas) and MARATHA (Simon Crisford) will be well to the fore in the market come flag fall and hopefully in the race as well, particularly at the business end of proceedings.  I made a similar point about the chance of Blair House twelve months ago before Charlie Appleby’s won with plenty to spare at odds of 14/1.  The newcomer drifted badly on the day before hosing up by the thick end of three lengths.  I guess that’s why I have left Sporting Times alone today as the prohibitive odds of 11/10 (at the time of writing) cannot be classed as offering value for money, a factor I have in mind in every race I peruse.

Favourite factor: Seven of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during which time, four favourites have obliged.

 

4.30: DRAGONS VOICE jumps off the page to a fashion here, with Philip Hide having saddled five of his last thirteen runners on the flat to winning effect.  If Philip’s Poet’s Voice gelding scored here, you might want to check out his two runners at Brighton which follow closely behind.  MACH ONE is as horse I would want to keep on the right side if the ground dried up before flag fall, whilst the Placepot chance for AL NAFOORAH is there for all to see.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 15/2 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites.  Five of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Ed Dunlop (0/8)

3—Michael Bell (2/6 – Slight profit)

3—David Brown (0/1)

3—Karl Burke (0/6)

3—Alan King (0/1)

2—Ralph Beckett (1/4 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/3)

2—David Evans (0/7)

2—Richard Fahey (2/11 – loss of 2 points)

2—John Gallagher (0/4)

2—Ed de Giles (1/3 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Dean Ivory (No runners)

2—Richard Price (0/2)

2—Derek Shaw (0/1)

2—Chris Wall (0/1)

2—Ian Williams (0/3)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Brighton: No corresponding meeting

Hexham: £107.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Huntingdon: £124.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £641.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday May 22

WINDSOR – MAY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £15.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 7 (Out Of The Flames) & 3 (Ellthea)

Leg 2 (6.25): 4 (Dathanna) & 6 (Little Miss Lilly)

Leg 3 (6.55): 4 (Perfect Quest), 5 (Lorelina) & 3 (Turning The Table)

Leg 4 (7.25): 7 (Raucous), 9 (Dancing Star) & 5 (Mr Lupton)

Leg 5 (7.55): 13 (Tirania) & 6 (Italian Heiress)

Leg 6 (8.25): 8 (Genuine Approval), 6 (Fast And Hot) & 2 (Ebbisham)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.55: Richard Hannon’s OUT OF THE FLAMES made a pleasing debut at Ascot ten days ago, though readers looking to back the horse from a win perspective might care to look at the favourite stats below before plunging in.  Either way, the 5/4 odds chalked up by the lads and lasses in the trade press office are fanciful in the extreme, with 4/9 being touted by most layers at the time of writing.  Mark Johnston sent a horse down from the north to beat the market leader twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Karl Burke this time around with the trainer having offered the green light to his Kodiac filly ELLTHEA, who is a half sister to John Gosden’s useful Von Blucher who was beaten a neck in a warm Sandown event on his debut.

Favourite factor: Both (8/11) favourites had obliged before last year’s 1/5 market leader could only finish second behind a 5/1 chance, albeit Richard Hannon’s raider secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

6.25: I suggest you read the details below in the favourite factor which outline the problems within the sport at the ‘top level’.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that it should be safe to headline Charlie Appleby’s newcomer DATHANNA, despite the defeat of one of their juvenile hot-pots at Ripon yesterday.  This Dubawi filly will obviously need a trip sooner rather than later though that said, she should be good enough to score at the first time of asking, though I would not want to take too short a price about the March foal.  Clive Cox has won with three of his five runners at this venue already this season, whilst saddling three of his eight juveniles to winning effect.  Money for Clive’s February foal LITTLE MISS LILLY would add interest to proceedings accordingly.

Favourite factor: This was a new race on the card twelve months ago, though not just because of the (then) recent change of maiden races to Novice events. This event had also been 'promoted' to Class 4 status.  It’s a new race again now because the event is now contested over six furlongs instead of five so why then (taking both factors into account), do the BHA have this race listed as the sixth renewal of the ‘same contest’?  It was the BHA which ‘changed the goalposts’ 15 months ago, yet they have ignored that factor when listing ‘past results’ for this event!

 

6.55: Conditions should not witness races being abandoned at Windsor this evening compared to the sport of offer just seven days ago.  Indeed, we have an opposite scenario is place with fast drying ground in evidence as opposed to rain falling on dry turf this time last week.  Connections of LORELINA might not want the sun to sine too strongly with Andrew Balding’s raider having shown a preference for racing on ground with plenty of moisture below the surface.  That said, four-year-olds have won six of the seven contests to date, whilst snaring ten of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions whereby LORELINA is fancied as the main threat to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker PERFECT QUEST.  David Simcock is slowly getting his runners into the type of form which produced 17 winners in June last year though he is four behind his April/May figures in 2016 (six gold medallists as opposed to ten twelve months ago) whereby the trainer will want TURNING THE TABLE to figure prominently.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame thus far via seven renewals (one winner).

Windsor record of course winners in the third race on the card:

1/3—Perfect Quest (good)

 

7.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and with fast improving The Tin Money having lifted the prize twelve months ago, RAUCOUS has a similar look judged on his April success at Chelmsford following a gelding operation.  DANCING STAR and MR LUPTON are the other vintage representatives in the field with both horses boasting solid claims on the best of their form.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until last year for another winning market leader to come along.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

3/4—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

1/2—Dancing Star (good)

 

7.55: TIRANIA is quoted at 8/11 in some lists this morning, as opposed to the 11/10 trade press quote.  In case that differential does not sound too extreme, the odds equate to a horse being backed from 4/1 to 12/5 from a percentage perspective.  Either way, Pat Cosgrave’s mount is expected to score from ITALIAN HEIRESS.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen renewals during which time, eleven gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.25: Nine of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 (four of the last ten gold medallists have been burdened with 8-13).  FAST AND HOT and GENUINE APPROVAL are fancied to land the Placepot dividend for us if we are 'live' going into the final leg accordingly.  Connections could have most to fear from EBBISHAM whose trainer Jim Boyle has bounced back to form during the last couple of weeks.  FAST AND HOT has been all the rage overnight, though some quiet money has been recorded for GENUINE APPROVAL whose 25/1 trade press quote looks fanciful in the extreme at the time of writing.  If the four-year-old continues to attract support into single figures, we can expect a decent effort to be forthcoming.  Trainer John Butler saddled a 20/1 winner at the Dente meeting at York last week for good measure.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 13 of the last 21 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5—Essenaitch (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (0/2)

4—David Evans (1/15 – loss of 4 points)

4—Richard Hannon (0/10)

3—Clive Cox (3/5 – Profit of 22 points)

3—Richard Fahey (No runners)

3—William Haggas (No runners)

2—Karl Burke (No runners)

2—Dean Ivory (0/9)

2—Mark Usher (0/1)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £139.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winnwers & 3 placed

Leicester: £162.50 -6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Redcar: £346.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Towcester: £63.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday May 21

RIPON – MAY 21 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £127.20 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Ripon: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Way Of Wisdom) & 5 (Musbaq)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Kroy), 2 (Arnold) & 8 (Urban Spirit)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Alshibaa), 3 (Warm Love) & 1 (Staff College)

Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Weekend Offender) & 8 (Rainbow Rebel)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Southern Belle), 9 (Honeysuckle Lil) & 10 (The Feathered Nest)

Leg 6 (4.40): 7 (Materialist) & 8 (Mathix)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Charlie Appleby (WAY OF WISDOM) boasts some serious stats going into this opening event.  All three of his runners won yesterday when securing a 29/1 treble, whilst five of his six two-year-old representatives have won this season.  Among those gold medallists was WAY OF WISDOM who won well at Newmarket and despite having to give weight away here, the blue silks of Godolphin look set to add to yesterday tally of five.  Mark Johnston’s February foal MUSBAQ could be the forecast call for those of you that want to play the race that way.

Favourite factor: The inaugural race last year was split into two divisions, producing a successful 4/6 market leader alongside an 11/4 favourite which missed out on a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner events in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

2.35: High on numbers but short on class, this Class 6 race lives up to its billing unfortunately, with KROY, ARNOLD and URBAN SPIRIT seemingly standing out from the crowd, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ripon card.

 

3.10:  These three-year-old handicap races begin to take on more significance over the next few weeks leading up to Epsom/Royal Ascot with the majority of the runners now having had their respective seasonal debut appearances.  The trio which catch the eye on this occasion are ALSHIBAA, WARM LOVE and STAFF COLLEGE, the threesome being listed in marginal order of preference.  That said, STAFF COLLEGE was only beaten four lengths and a spit by Defoe at level weights last year (Defoe was a very good winner at Newbury on Saturday) and a return to that type of form could make the 16/1 quotes this morning look half decent, especially as the top weight is the only ‘qualifier’ via the brief trends as all three winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 thus far.

Favourite factor: The first two (11/4 & 6/4) favourites prevailed before last year’s 2/1 market leader snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Racemaker (good)

 

3.40: Four-year-olds had won the first four contests before two renewals eluded vintage representatives, only for three of the last four contests to return to type.  Seven of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-12 and two relevant vintage representatives (WEEKEND OFFENDER and RAINBOW REBEL) hail from the 'superior' weights in the handicap this time around.  Last year’s first named ‘qualifier’ in the contest won at odds of 7/2.

Favourite factor: Seven of the 13 favourites (three winners) have snared toteplacepot positions via ten renewals to date.  Five of the gold medallists have been returned at 4/1 or less, accompanied by three 16/1 chances alongside 10/1 & 15/2 gold medallists.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:

1/1—Empress Ali (heavy)

1/1—Gurkha Frioend (good)

1/2—Miss Van Gogh (good to soft)

 

4.10: Four and five-year-olds have a good record in this contest (the score stands at 4-6 via 14 renewals), whereby one horse from each vintage will do for starters, namely SOUTHERN BELLE and HONEYSUCKLE LIL.  There was no debate on one score, as SOUTHERN BELLE is the only five-year-old in the line-up on this occasion, though that is one more than was the case twelve months ago!  THE FEATHERED NEST is a winner of one of her four assignments to date, whilst Richard Fahey’s filly has ‘only’ been beaten by an aggregate of seven lengths via the three defeats suffered thus far. According to my abacus, Richard secured an 11,327-1 five-timer yesterday, albeit his 14 runners equated to 2002 five horse accumulators if you were contemplating such a wager!

Favourite factor: Three favourites have scored via 14 renewals to date, whilst eight market leaders failed to finish in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race on the card:

1/2—Blithe Spirit (good)

3/14—Love Island (2 x good & good to soft)

1/6—Honeysuckle Lil (soft)

 

4.40: Two Newmarket trainers travel north to snare the northern swag and there is every chance that Roger Varian (MATERIALIST) and William Haggas (MATHIX) will draw swords at the business end of proceedings after they have fought off their rivals.  Lamloom entered my ‘last chance saloon’ last time up and though David O’Meara’s raider only found one too good on that occasion, it was one failed assignment too many for this columnist.  All ten of David’s runners were beaten yesterday, with only two inmates finishing in the frame.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last seven renewals whilst the other three winners scored at 11/10 & 11/2 (twice) during the period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ripon card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

 

8 runners—Tim Easterby (1/25 – loss of 19 points)

4—Richard Fahey (1/17 – loss of 14 points)

3—Mark Johnston (2/10 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (0/5)

3—Tom Tate (No runners)

3—Richard Whitaker (0/1)

2—Scott Dixon (No runners)

2—William Haggas (1/1 – Slight profit)

2—Richard Hannon (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

2—Jedd O’Keefe (0/1)

2—David O’Meara (1/12 – loss of 2 points)

2—Ollie Pears (1/3 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Mark Tompkins (No runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Market Rasen: £172.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stratford: £115.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday May 20

NEWBURY – MAY 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £403.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Midterm), 5 (My Dream Boat) & 1 (Across The Stars)

Leg 2 (2.20): 8 (Perfect Angel), 1 (Private Matter) & 2 (Barrington)

Leg 3 (2.55): 5 (Defoe), 8 (Mucho Applause) & 9 (Glorious Forever)

Leg 4 (3.30): 6 (Mitchum Swagger), 1 (Aclaim) & 7 (Ribchester)

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Denaar) & 4 (Koditime)

Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Gracious Diana) & 6 (Prosper)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50:  Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 19 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives MIDTERM and ACROSS THE STARS from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard are the first names on the team sheet this time around.  That said, five-year-olds come to the party on a hat trick whereby the soft ground Royal Ascot winner MY DREAM BOAT in added into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame (four winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before last year’s 14/1 gold medallists reared its ugly head.

Record of Newbury course winners in the opening event:

1/2—Midterm (good to soft)

 

2.20 (Listed Carnnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last seven contests, a factor which led to my leading with their 7/1 winner last year.  The stable is not represented on this occasion however though moving onwards and upward in positive mode, my eyes are drawn to the top and bottom horses in the list, namely PRIVATE MATTER and PERFECT ANGEL.  Both horses have form under today’s conditions whilst hailing from yards who have been sending out plenty of winners.  The value for money reserve nomination is awarded to BARRINGTON whose trainer Charlie Hills saddled a 25/1 winner here at Newbury yesterday.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last twelve years during which time, nine gold medallists have scored at a top rice of 4/1.

 

2.55: The last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby DEFOE, MUCHO APPLAUSEand GLORIOUS FOREVER will represent yours truly in my toteplacepot permutation on Saturday.  Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced four of the last six winners, gaining a Placepot position between them on all six occasions.  DEFOE (1/14) is the clear pick of this year’s relevant raiders.  COUNT CALABASH is not entirely ruled out of the mix at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 15 of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):

3-4-5 (15 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

Record of Newbury course winners in the third race:

1/1—Duke Of Bronte (good to firm)

 

3.30 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last seven winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117 into the contest (average ratio of 125).  I suggested last year that the contest twelve months ago represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the 117 winner and with this year’s remaining eight runners running off an average figure of 115, much can be said for this latest renewal.  This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 40/1 chance, namely MITCHUM SWAGGER one of the four course winners in the field.  Before you send for the ‘men in white coats’, it would be wise to look at his record when racing on good/soft ground to date.  Just one disappointing effort has been registered via six relevant assignments.  One victory has been recorded alongside four placed efforts which included a third placed position in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup which was contested on soft ground.  The other three (silver medal) efforts recorded defeats by just a neck and a head (two occasions). I perfectly understand if you prefer backing horses at the other end of the betting but do yourself a favour, at least have an each way saver on David Lanigan’s Paco Boy gelding.  I offered two outsiders on the Windsor card on Monday night, one of which (Englishman) won at 33/1.  It might just be a coincidence of course, but Paco Boy won this race back in 2010.  I grant you that more logical winners in the field might include RIBCHESTER and ACLAIM but my money has already been invested at 40/1, with a small saver on Martyn Meade’s latter named representative at 9/1.

Favourite factor: The last nineteen winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (ten winning favourites), whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Six of the last ten market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded two years ago), as have nine favourites during the last fourteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

6-7-2 (12 ran-good)

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of Newbury course winners in the 'Lockinge':

1/2—Aclaim (soft)

1/3—Breton Rock (good to soft)

1/1—Mitchum Swagger

1/1—Ribchester (good to soft)

 

4.05:  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 300 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 18 relevant gold medallists.  Richard has offered the green light to his Chelmsford winner DENAAR and with the trainer having mentioned Mehmas (last year’s winner of this race) when interviewed at the Essex venue after the relevant contest, it is no surprise to see the Acclamation colt turning up for this gig.  Mehmas went on to pick up a couple of Group 2 races in 2016 (July Stakes & Richmond Stakes) and connections will have the same dreams twelve months on. KODITIME is marginally preferred to Kit Marlowe as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished out of the money at 3/1 before last year’s 4/6 market leader found one too good (from a win perspective) when securing a Placepot postion.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-1-6 (8 ran-good)

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

 

4.40: John Gosden has claimed two of the last six renewals of this fascinating contest and only the fact that his raider GRACIOUS DIANA gained her victory on fast ground prevents me from making her nap material this time around.  That said, John’s Foxwedge filly has some serious rivals in opposition here, the pick of which might just prove to be PROSPER on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of Newbury course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Gracious Diana (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their winners and starting prices at the track this season:

5 runners—Richard Fahey

4—Hugo Palmer

3—Marco Botti

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Hannon (3 winners at 8/1-11/2-5/2)

3—Mark Johnston

3—David Simcock

3—Sir Michael Stoute

2—Andrew Balding

2—Brian Meehan (1 winner at 25/1)

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

65 runners at the time of writing

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £699.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newmarket: £87.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Thirsk: £131.20 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Bangor: £224.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £486.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Friday May 19

YORK – MAY 19 

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £217.60 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £311.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £16.00 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 placed)

2013: £117.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £12,695.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £176.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,255.52 - Favourites stats - 37 in total - 14 winners - 9 placed - 14 unplaced

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Maggies Angel), 9 (Izzy Bizu) & 5 (Faithful Promise)

Leg 2 (2.55): 3 (Dancing Breeze), 5 (On Her Toes) & 7 (Sibilance)

Leg 3 (3.30): 3 (Dartmouth), 6 (Muntahaa) & 1 (Clever Cookie)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Gibbs Hill) & 4 (Southdown Lad)

Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Carolinae), 1 (Shypen) & 8 (Nouvelli Dancer)

Leg 6 (5.05): 3 (Justanotherbottle), 7 (Savannah’s Dream) & 9 (Computable)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Ten of the twelve winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 though on the negative side, only Richard Fahey has saddled two winners to date.  The last of those was his 33/1 gold medallist Vona twelve months ago, with MAGGIES ANGEL having been given the green light by the trainer this time around. Mark Johnston secured a 2,956/1 four timer on the corresponding card two years ago, and his two outsiders IZZY BIZU and FAITHFUL PROMISE are added into the mix. NEOLA receives the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Five of the 13 favourites (twelve renewals) have obliged to date, whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-2-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-2-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-10-7 (13 ran-good)

6-8-2 (11 ran-soft)

9-1-6 (11 ran-good)

7-6-5 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

9-11-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

9-10-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

9-6-1 (10 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

4-1-3 (9 ran-good to soft)

 

2.55: Different trainers have claimed victories via eleven renewals during the last twelve years which does little for confidence, especially with weight and vintage trends not affecting this contest.  That said, DANCING BREEZE (John Gosden) and ON HER TOES (William Haggas) hail from stable which have already posted winners at the meeting this week and their chances are respected.  Ralph Beckett has a winning way when handling fillies and I doubt that SIBILANCE will be far away at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: 23 of the last 26 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions have been returned at odds of 9/1 or less, with nine of the twelve favourites finishing in the frame (four winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-7 – 7 ran-good to firm)

3-7-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

12-3-1 (14 ran-good)

2-4-5 (9 ran-soft)

5-3 (7 ran-good)

9-3-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-1 (5 ran-good to firm)

10-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-3 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (5 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-soft)

 

3.30: Regular readers will know that I am not a fan of ‘cup races’ and I will simply be looking to get through the toteplacepot leg without placing another wager. The last time I backed a winner in this type of race was when in short trousers, with a man in a shady raincoat and trilby noting the name of the said beast on a cigarette packet!  Last year’s winner CLEVER COOKIE does not appear to know how to run a bad race (whatever the conditions), though it looks as though connections of Peter Niven's nine-year-old warrior will have to settle for place money, with the likes of MUNTAHAA and DARTMOUTH having been entered this year.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have finished in the frame, whilst six market leaders have secured the gold rosette during the study period.

York record of runners in the 'Yorkshire Cup':

4/8—Clever Cookie (good to firm – good – good to soft – soft)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals (four-year-olds have won the other four contests), whilst horses carrying weights of 9-1 or less have won nine of the last thirteen contests.  Two of the four-year-old  ‘qualifiers’ this time with ticks in both of the vintage/weight trend boxes are listed in order of preference as GIBBS HILL and SOUTHDOWN LAD.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the twenty market leaders have reached the frame during the study period, stats which includes six winning favourites.

 

4.35: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5-3 via just nine available Placepot positions to date.  Charlie Fellowes (four of his last six runners have won) saddles the lone five-year-old in the field, namely CAROLINAE with Ryan Moore noted having been booked to ride.  Others for the mix include SHYPEN and NOUVELLI DANCER whose trainer David Griffiths is also in sparkling form right now.

Favourite factor: The first two favourites prevailed before last year’s third market leader was sunk without (Placepot) trace.

York record of runners in the fifth event on the card:

1/3—Lil Sophella (good to firm)

 

5.05: 21/35 horses to have gained toteplacepot positions (via ten renewals to date) have carried weights of 8-13 or more, with seven qualifying runners to consider this time around (before jockey claims are taken into account) in a fouteen strong field. JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE, SANANNAH’S DREAM and COMPUTABLE get the vote.

Favourite factor: Two of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), taking into account that the 2012 favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

15-9-3 (13 ran-good to firm)

10-8-5-2 (18 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9-12 (19 ran-good)

17-18-14-9 (17 ran-soft)

17-4-5-6 (18 ran-good)

4-6-3-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-12-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

15-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

2-5-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-3-10 (11 ran-good)

York record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Angel Meadow (good)

1/2—Tahoo (good to firm)

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the York card on Friday – followed by Wednesday/Thursday winners + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (1/14 – winner at 5/1)

5—Mark Johnston (1/6 – winner at 10/1)

3—Ralph Beckett (0/2)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (0/4)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/5)

2—Michael Appleby (0/1)

2—Michael Bell (0/1)

2—Karl Burke (0/1)

2—Keith Dalgleish (0/1)

2—Tom Dascombe (0/1)

2—Tom Easterby (0/6)

2—James Given (0/1)

2—John Gosden (1/3 – winner at 4/7*)

2—David O’Meara (2/12—winners at 25/1 & 20/1)

2—Kevin Ryan (0/9)

2—Roger Varian (0/4)

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 runners stood their ground at the time of writing

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Hamilton: £17.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Newbury: £218.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Newmarket: £3,103.80 – 7 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

Aintree: £51.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Thursday May 18

YORK – MAY 18

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £349.40 (10 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 6 unplaced)

2015: £354.20 (6 favourite: 1 winner - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,473.10 (6 favourite: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2013: £938.30 (6 favourite: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £50.10 (9 favourite: 2 winners - 2 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £20.40 (6 favourite: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average dividend: £530.92 - Favourite stats: 43 in total - 10 winners - 11 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 7 (Line Of Reason), 10 (Gamesome), 8 (East Street Revue) & 9 (Union Rose)

Leg 2 (2.55): 5 (So Mi Dar), 1 (Queen’s Trust) & 6 (The Black Princess)

Leg 3 (3.30): 3 (Cracksman) & 5 (Exemplar)

Leg 4 (4.05): 5 (Here Comes When), 2 (Thikriyaat) & 8 (Victory Bond)

Leg 5 (4.35): 1 (Ardad) & 2 (Brian The Snail)

Leg 6 (5.05): 9 (Vj Day), 3 (Makadah) & 8 (Taifbalady)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Leading trainer on the Thursday of the Dante meeting during the last six years:

John Gosden (9/1, 4/1 & 7/2*) is the only trainer to have saddled more than two winners (three in total) on the middle day of the meeting

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Eight of the nine winners have scored at 33/1-25/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1-10/1-10/1 and if the trend of percentages (prices) is to be extended, we can expect a winner returned around the 11/1 mark.  The ‘official marks’ of the winners to date were 87-89-95-89-96-92-100-104-90 (average of 93).  Eight of the nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3, whilst four of the last seven contests have been secured by seven-year-olds.  Putting all the stats and facts together produces a short list of LINE OF REASON, GAMESOME and EAST STREET REVUE.  The reserve nomination is awarded to UNION ROSE who will have ground conditions to suit, whilst also being the only runner in the field to race of an official mark of 93 on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame though we still await the first successful market leader.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

4-15-10-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-3-10 (15 ran-good)

4-12-10-11 (19 ran-good to soft)

5-15-6 (15 ran-good)

5-15-14-2 (16 ran-good)

9-8-16-11 (18 ran-good)

4-8-16-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-12 (15 ran-good)

1-3-10 (11 ran-good to firm)

York record of course winners in the opening race:

1/4—Duke Of Firenze (good to firm)

1/12—Line Of Reason (good to firm)

1/7—Robot Boy (good)

1/3—East Street Revbue (good)

1/4—Union Rose (soft)

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of this contest, with five-year-olds having won the other five contests.  Leading ‘junior’ players this time should prove to be SO MI DAR and QUEEN’S TRUST, though we cannot take too much for granted under the conditions which are far from ideal for top quality racing.  John Gosden’s record at the Dante Meeting has held up well in recent seasons and though he has a potential top notch raider in SO MI DAR, it could prove foolish to eliminate his ‘second string’ THE BLACK PRINCESS with moisture in the ground.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include eight winners.

York record of course winners in the opening race:

1/1—So Mi Dar (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four of the last 13 winners of the ‘Dante’ have gone on to win the Epsom Derby notwithstanding 33/1 winner Libertarian (2013) which finished second to Leader Of The Word at Epsom.  Throw in The Grey Gatsby (won the French Derby in 2014) and we can see why the 'Dante' remains a true Derby trial.  John Gosden comes to the gig on a hat trick and in CRACKSMAN, John has a leading contender and no mistake.  John’s Frankel colt is only a (general) 7/1 chance for the Derby at the time of writing, though time could prove this to be his trip rather than the longer distance at Epsom.  Ground could be an issue today as well, though there are no such worries for the Aidan O’Brien team with EXEMPLAR, whereby Ryan Moore’s mount rates at the main threat according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor:  Five of the last 18 market leaders have obliged, whilst ten of the 19 jollies have reached the frame during the study period.

York record of course winners in the Dante Stakes:

1/1—Syphax (good to firm)

 

4.05: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last sixteen renewals, whilst seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones.  I am surprised that just 35% of the field is taken by vintage representatives accordingly, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be THIKRIYAAT and VICTORY BOND.  That said, readers with long memories will know that I have a soft spot for HERE COMES WHEN, even though Andrew Balding’s seven-year-old let us down at Kempton last back end after a fine run at Ascot on his previous assignment when so many traffic problems stopped him from getting in the mix at the business end of proceedings.  The rain has come in time and HERE COMES WHEN has to be given another chance, especially at around the 14/1 mark, being one of just five horses that hail from the superior sector of the handicap.  I was on at 16/1 yesterday and positive activity in the price this morning should be heeded.  I note that only Paddy Power are offering 14’s as I conclude this column for editing purposes.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 24 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions (six winners).

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

16-8-5-11 (19 ran-good to firm)

1-6-17-7 (18 run-good)

1-4-3 (11 ran-good to soft)

16-14-11 (15 ran-good)

3-4-2 (11 ran-good)

8-7-6-2 (18 ran-good)

4-13-12 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-8 (15 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

4-11-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

8-4-6 (13 ran-soft)

12-5-11-17 (17 ran-good to soft)

11-8-1 (11 ran-good to firm)

1-8-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

10-1-6 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-2-4 (13 ran-firm)

6-9-1 (10 ran-soft)

York record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Firmament (good to firm)

1/1—White Lake (good)

1/8—Top Notch Tonto (good to soft)

1/4—Get Knotted (good to firm)

1/2—Cote D’Azur (good to firm)

1/3—Home Cummins (good)

 

4.35: As a seven length winner (biggest margin to date) under soft conditions at Catterick on his second start, BRIAN THE SNAIL has to enter the equation, albeit similar comments apply to ARDAD who spread-eagled the Windsor Castle field on soft ground last year.  Jumira Bridge is another fine prospect but I only have room for two horses in my permutation and my judgment is heavily influence by the conditions today.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (via eight renewals) have finished in the money to date, statistics which include three (10/3-4/6-4/5) winners.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

4-10-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-5-8 (10 ran-good)

2-6 (6 ran-good)

2-8 (5 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

1-7-8 (8 ran-good)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-1 (8 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the fifth contest:

 

5.05: There seems to be plenty of confidence behind VJ DAY at the time of writing, the Kevin Ryan team trying to make up for the disappointing run of Brando on the opening day of the meeting.  Hamdan Al Maktoum’s pair are rated as the main dangers, namely MAKANAH and TAIFBALADY.

Favourite factor: 16 of the last 19 winners have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, whilst eight favourites have obliged.  13 of the last 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

1-3-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

13-3-7 (12 ran-good)

1-6-8 (8 ran-good)

10-13-1 (14 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (13 ran-good)

5-2-12 (11 ran-good)

6-12-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

3-1-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

6-3-10 (11 ran-soft)

6-5-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6 (10-good to firm)

2-3-11 (15 ran-good to firm)

1-9-6 (13 ran-firm)

9-10-3 (9 ran-soft)

7-6 (7 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Thursday – followed by Wednesday ratios + winning starting prices:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (0/8 on the first day of the Dante meeting)

6—David O’Meara (1/7 – winner at 25/1)

5—Kevin Ryan (0/5)

4—John Gosden (1/1 – winner at 4/7*)

4—Sir Michael Stoute (No runners)

3—Charlie Appleby (0/4)

3—Tim Easterby (0/5)

3—Mark Johnston (0/4)

3—Paul Midgley (0/3)

3—Jedd O’Keeffe (No runners)

2—Andrew Balding (No runners)

2—David Elsworth (No runners)

2—Charlie Hills (0/1)

2—David Menuisier (0/1)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/3)

2—David Simcock (0/2)

2—Roger Varian (0/2)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

89 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £1,449.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Perth: £14.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Fontwell: £267.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday May 17

YORK – MAY 17

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years:

2016: £32.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2015: £3,142.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £1,860.60 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2013: £305.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £3,044.20 (6 favourites: No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

2011: £2,943.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner & 5 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,888.13 - 38 favourites - 12 winners - 4 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at York: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Repercussion), 4 (Speed Company), 14 (Qassem) & 3 (Shabeeb)

Leg 2 (2.55): 18 (Udontdodou), 20 (Flying Pursuit), 14 (Reputation) & 15 (Shamshon)

Leg 3 (3.30): 8 (Magical Memory) & 3 (Brando)

Leg 4 (4.05): 3 (Shutter Speed)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Chessman), 18 (Sir Reginald Brown) & 1 (Senator)

Leg 6 (5.05): 4 (It Dont Come Easy), 1 (Santry) & 5 (Knockout Blow)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Leading trainer on Day 1 of the Dante meetings during the last six years:

7 winners—John Gosden (13/2, 5/1, 9/2*, 11/4*, 15/8, 4/5* & 4/6*)

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Apologies are offered for the late analysis this morning which is due to enduring a traumatic day relating to health matters on Tuesday.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that he first thing you should do on Wednesday is to form a Placepot permutation on the opening day of the three day fixture, given the dividends I have offered above. This is not a case of one dividend 'swelling the average', far from it in fact, as four of the last six returns have been recorded in four figures.  Four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 19 renewals and vintage representatives came to the gig on a seven-timer in 2013 with relevant horses having secured 14 of the previous 19 available toteplacepot positions.

Vintage representatives produced a clean sweep in Placepot terms twelve months ago and the pick of the ten 'junior runners' this time around should prove to be REPERCUSSION (drawn 9/20 – Charlie Fellowes has saddled his last four runners to winning effect), SPEED COMPANY (14), QASSEM (4) and SHABEEB (17).  The four runners are drawn across the width of the track whereby we should have all thigs covered as far as the ‘traps’ are concerned.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the 22 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, though only three market leaders have won during the study period.

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

4-9-2 (13 ran-good)

18-14-12-5 (18 ran-good)

17-16-8-14 (18 ran-soft)

3-6-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

5-14-6 (14 ran-good)

17-5-1-4 (20 ran-good)

12-4-5 (11 ran-good)

5-3-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

16-8-11-14 (17 ran-good)

5-14-2 (14 ran-good to soft)

11-6-3 (12 ran-soft)

7-5-10 (14 ran-good to soft)

10-4-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

2-7-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

10-1-9-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-6-3 (8 ran-firm)

5-8-12 (12 ran-soft)

2-7-1 (13 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Master Carpenter (good)

 

2.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals, confirming their recent dominance having secured a 1-2-3 result six years ago via eight representatives in the twenty strong line up.  Eleven of the last twelve winners carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Relevant horses UDONTDODOU (drawn 16/20), FLYING PURSUIT (3) and REPUTATION (6) form my ‘short list’ on this occasion.  If vintage representatives are to be denied this time around, SHAMSHON (11) might prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: 15 of the 26 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, with three favourites prevailing from a win perspective during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-9-1-4 (18 ran-good)

11-14-4-1 (17 ran-good)

20-5-19-14 (20 ran-soft)

18-3-5 (15 ran-good to soft)

15-6-18-7 (19 ran-good)

8-7-3-14 (20 ran-good to firm)

11-8-17 (13 ran-good to firm)

15-13-17-16 (16 ran-soft)

12-10-9 (15 ran-good to firm)

13-7-12 (13 ran-good)

7-8-9-10 (17 ran-soft)

1-5-15-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

12-10-4 (14 ran-good to soft)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

6-5-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

6-14-12-7 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-9-16 (15 ran-firm)

2-9-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the second race on the card:

2/8—Out Do (2 x good)

1/5—Reputation (goof to firm)

1/2—Shamson (good to firm)

 

3.30: Four and five-year-olds have claimed 12 of the last 18 renewals, with the older of the two vintages leading 8-4 during the period.  The pick of the two vintages on this occasion might prove to be last year’s winner MAGICAL MEMORY and BRANDO, who represents Kevin Ryan who has won two of the last ten renewals.  ‘Team Hills’ boast the same recent ratio with MAGICAL MEMORY representing the yard on this occasion.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Suedois.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last 19 years, though just three of the other fifteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions.  Seven of the last eleven winners have scored at 40/1-25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-12/1-10/1.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-9-6 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (15 ran-good)

4-2-5 (13 ran-soft)

18-15-4 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-12-3 (13 ran-good)

9-12-8 (14 ran-good)

1-11-6 (12 ran-good)

3-11-6 (16 ran-good to firm)

6-1-7 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-1-13 (17 ran-good)

2-13-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

9-10-5 (11 ran-soft)

5-14-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-4 (12 ran-good to firm)

8-10-4 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (10 ran-firm)

8-1-2 (14 ran-soft)

3-5-4 (10 ran-good)

York record of course winners in the third contest:

1/4—Baccarat (good)

1/2—Magical Memory (good)

2/12—Nameitwhatyoulike (good & good to soft)

1/2—Tasleet (Good to soft)

 

4.05 ('Musidora'): John Gosden has won four of the last five renewals when represented and John has offered the green light to his unbeaten filly SHUTTER SPEED who should win this ‘trial’ with plenty to spare.  An impressive winner of a decent Newbury Conditions event the last day, ‘Frankie’ should only need to do the steering here to score.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have reached the frame, statistics which include seven winners.

 

4.35: Richard Fahey has landed this event three times in the last eight years and all three of his entries boast Placepot claims, namely SIR REGINALD BROWN, SENATOR and STARLIGHT ROMANCE.  That said, CHESSMAN demands to be the first name of the team sheet from what we have witnessed to date. John Gosden has stood out as the trainer to follow on the opening day of the meeting in recent years and in Shutter Speed and Chessman, John has a great chance to add to the tally on Wednesday, albeit via just the two runners on the card.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed via just nine contests thus far, though the other three market leaders missed out on toteplacepot positions.

 

5.05: The Placepot finale is something of a lottery, though IT DON’T COME EASY, SANTRY and KNOCKOUT BLOW should (hopefully) ensure that the latter named words do not prove to be prophetic, eliminating us from sharing the Placepot pool.

Favourite factor: Seven of the thirteen favourites to date have missed out on toteplacepot positions (five winners). The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 14/1 (eight years ago).  The other eleven winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-9-6 (9 ran-good)

1 (4 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good to soft)

4-1 (7 ran-soft)

1-5-2 (8 ran-good)

9-1-2 (10 ran-good)

5-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

5-4 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good to firm)

7-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the York card on Wednesday – followed by last year’s ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

10 runners—David O’Meara (3/96 – loss of 63 points)

9—Richard Fahey (9/116 – loss of 10 points)

6—Kevin Ryan (6/60 – loss of 18 points)

5—Tim Easterby (4/61 – loss of 24 points)

5—Bryan Smart (2/10 – Profit of 4 points)

4—Charlie Appleby (3/20 – loss of 7 points)

4—William Haggas (5/29 – loss of 4 points)

4—Mark Johnston (3/63 – loss of 38 points)

4—Paul Midgley (0/27)

3—Brian Ellison (1/28 – loss of 19 points)

3—Richard Hannon (3/25 – Profit of 10 points)

3—Hugo Palmer (2/15 – Profit of 7 points)

3—Roger Varian (4/22 – loss of 4 points)

2—John Butler (---)

2—Mick Channon (1/19 – loss of 10 points)

2—Mick Easterby (2/39 – loss of 3 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—John Gosden (3/16 – Profit of 1 points)

2—Charlie Hills (2/16 – loss of 7 points)

2—John Quinn (0/18)

2—David Simcock (1/17 – loss of 7 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bath: £160.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Yarmouth: The last two renewals of this meeting were staged elsewhere

Perth: £26.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Worcester: £60.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday May 16

BEVERLEY – MAY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £27.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 10 (Spoof) & 11 (The Right Choice)

Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Mt Strutter) & 8 (Whigwham)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Socalites Red), 2 (Bond Bombshell) & 4 (Oriental Splendour)

Leg 4 (3.30): 7 (Gerry The Glover), 6 (Sovereign Bounty) & 3 (Jacbequick)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (True Romance), 3 (Miss Bates) & 4 (Ode To Glory)

Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Rooster The Booster), 4 (Copper Baked) & 5 (The Raven Master)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: I hope some of you were on my 33/1 winner Englishman at Windsor last night!  Charlie Hills followed up a Chester winner last week with another gold medallist a few days later and his Poet’s Voice colt SPOOF is the obvious place to start following two half decent efforts to date.  THE RIGHT CHOICE appears to be the principle Richard Fahey raider via his two declarations with Paul Hanagan doing the steering.  Richard leads the way at Beverley this season, boasting a 4/17 ratio at the track, with winners recorded at 6/1, 4/1, 4/1 & 6/4* thus far.  Tom Dascombe could celebrate his fourth juvenile winner of the season as PORCHY PARTY ran well enough over course and distance at the first time of asking to suggest that there could be small race victory on the horizon en route to better things.

Favourite factor: This was a new race on the Beverley card last year, 'new' in the sense that races changing from maidens to novice status are deemed to be inaugural events by the BHA. Fortunately for the majority of punters, the 7/4 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.30: John Quinn’s runners are regularly reaching the frame with the odd winner posted here and there, including one at the big Chester meeting last week. MR STRUTTER scored in half decent fashion at Thirsk the last day and a repeat of that showing would probably be good enough to land this weak event.  In receipt of ten pounds, WHIGWHAM should offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include two winners which were both returned at 15/8.

 

3.00: 35/40 toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-4 or less and I would not put anyone off a small punt on SOCIALITES RED (one of six runners that qualify via the weight stats) in another race on the card which fails to set the pulse racing.  Scott Dixon has greeted three of his last eleven runners in the area reserved for winners (27 points of level stake profit during the period), with Scott’s representative having been one of the relevant gold medallists at Nottingham last week.  A six pound penalty for that success is negated by a seven pound claimer who was in the plate at Colwick Park.  BOND BOMBSHELL has recorded three course and distance victories under fast conditions and providing the wet stuff is not in evidence, David O’Meara’s raider can go close, the trainer having only saddled more turf winners at Ripon that he has managed here at Beverley during the course of the last five years.  David’s 38 winners have produced level stake profit of over 30 points for good measure.  ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR is my idea of the speculative option in the contest with Ruth Carr continuing to send out winners in what could well be a record year for the trainer.  Ruth’s 14 winners this season have produced ten points of LSP.

Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen favourites have finished in the frame to date (one winner) via 13 renewals.

Beverley record of course winners in the third event on the card:

3/7—Bond Bombshell (3 x good to firm)

1/3—Jack Luey (soft)

2/10—Thatcherite (2 x good)

1/17—Tinsill (good)

 

3.30: Nine of the ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5, whilst five-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around. GERRY THE GLOVER and SOVEREIGN BOUNTY are the two entries with ticks in both of the trend boxes, with course specialist JACBEQUICK added into the Placepot mix.  ‘Jac’ has gained all five successes to date at this venue.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

Beverley record of course winners in the fourth contest:

2/4—Rousayan (2 x good)

5/17—Jacbequick (3 x good to firm – good – heavy)

2/4—Sovereign Bounty (good & good to firm)

1/2—Gerry The Glover (good)

 

4.00: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminates the bottom four (of ten) horses on this occasion. The pick of the remaining six suspects will hopefully prove to be the speculative trio of TRUE ROMANCE, MISS BATES and ODE TO GLORY.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fourteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five winners.

 

4.30: Given that this is the second heat of the previous event, the three horses from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap to home in on appear to be ROOSTER THE BOOSTER, COPPER BAKED and THE RAVEN MASTER.  This trio look certain to land the dividend between them for us, if we are ‘live’ going into the finale.

Favourite factor: Thus is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the same stats apply.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track following three meetings + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Richard Fahey (4/17 – Profit of 2 points)

6—Mark Johnston (2/14 – loss of 8 points)

5—Tim Easterby (0/14)

5—David O’Meara (2/16 – loss of 2 points)

4—Brian Ellison (0/2)

3—Karl Burke (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Kevin Ryan (2/9 – Profit of 6 points)

3—John Wainwright (0/2)

2—James Bethell (0/1)

2—John Butler (No runners)

2—Declan Carroll (0/3)

2—Roger Fell (0/4)

2—Ollie Pears (0/1)

2—John Quinn (0/2)

2—Nigel Tinkler (0/8)

+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

84 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £2.466.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Sedgefield: £26.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (NH): £74.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Warwick: This is a new replacement meeting for Wincanton

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday May 15

WINDSOR – MAY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2.50 (3 favourites: 1 winners & 2 placed—meeting abandoned after three races due to unsafe ground)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.20): 6 (Highland Cradle) & 3 (Fire Chief)

Leg 2 (5.50): 4 (Comrade Conrad), 1 (Crowned Eagle) & 6 (Secret Advisor)

Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (Last Voyage), 6 (Wildnightinvegas) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (6.50): 4 (Time To Exceed) & 5 (Gulliver)

Leg 5 (7.20): 2 (Kool Kompany), 5 (Firmament) & 7 (Mitchum Swagger)

Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Call Me Grump) & 2 (Dragons Voice)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

*The weather has an important part to play today if rain hits all parts of the country as has been forecast.  There was plenty of wet weather in and around London yesterday and with plenty more to (supposedly) come today, the ground could be anything but good by the time the evening meeting at Windsor gets under way.  I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50).  This is not a message for you to ‘lump on’, the brief is simply for you to consider from each way angles as savers, if you fancy other horses in the respective events.  Either way, best of luck and keep an eye on the weather as you watch the afternoon unfold especially.  If the rain arrives as it is meant to the length and breadth of the land, the general advice is to minimise bets today as bookmakers love nothing more than fast changing ground which crates havoc as far as the form book is concerned on a regular basis.  If you want confirmation of how the weather looks to the west of London, Kempton (stages an afternoon NH meeting) is not far from Windsor whereby conditions should be similar, if not exactly the same.

 

As I have changed the general format this morning (to a fashion), I will offer Windsor details this season following four meetings:

Average Placepot dividend: £186.23 – 24 favourites – 6 winners – 4 placed – 14 unplaced (exact science)

Leading represented trainers tonight:

3/6—Clive Cox (+23 LSP) – 2 runners: Don’t Blame Me (6.50) & Mach One (7.50)

2/5—Sir Michael Stoute (+2 LSP) – 1 runner: Highland Cradle (5.20)

2/6—Roger Charlton (+9 LSP) – 1 runner: Comrade Conrad (5.50)

 

Back to the race by race analysis:

 

5.20: As I have already suggested, minimise your bets if plenty of rain has fallen as has been forecast for all parts of the country.  Although junior (three-year-old) runners tend to win these mixed vintage maiden events, I offered strong reasoning regarding last year’s successful 11/10 market leader.  This renewal should revert to type however with Sir Michael Stoute having declared three-year-old HIGHLAND CRADLE who boasts obvious claims.  Charlie Fellowes is not a trainer who grabs many headlines though it’s worth noting that his last two runners have won, with CHIEFOFCHIEFS being his only runner on the Windsor card.  Out of interest, Charlie’s other runner today is Fire Tree (4.00 Wetherby).

Favourite factor: All ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include five winners.  All nine gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

5.50: It would be as well to glance down at the favourite details below before you assess this event.  Just ten pounds separate this thirteen strong field which also suggests that it might pay to be a layer rather than a player on this occasion.  That option has no bearing on the Placepot however, whereby I have to be positive, offering the trio of COMRADE CONRAD, CROWNED EAGLE and SECRET ADVISOR to get us safely through to the next leg of our favourite wager, though any 'win money' will be safely locked away for another day.  That said, an each way saver could be in the offing regarding FASTNET SPIN for reasons offered earlier.  At 50/1, the David Evans raider might represent each way value if the heavens open.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine renewals during which time, winners were also returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-14/1-10/1.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Comrade Conrad (good)

1/2—Fastnet Spin (soft)

 

6.20:  As every reader will know, ‘Team Hannon’ has monopolised juvenile races here in recent years though Richard had only sent six runners without success (via four meetings) to Windsor this season before declaring five for tonight’s card.  Richard saddles two runners (both quoted around the 8/1 mark) which makes for interesting reading, namely STRAIGHT ASH alongside his Kodiac newcomer WILDNIGHTINVEGAS.  If Richard is to be denied here, LAST VOYAGE is the obvious juvenile to home in on, given Charlie Appleby’s 4/4 record with his two-year-olds this season.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (includes three winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

 

6.50: ENGLISHMAN enters the equation from a big price ‘saver’ perspective as mentioned earlier, though more logical winners include GULLIVER, TIME TO EXCEED and (perhaps) Spakalot.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Alkhor (good to firm)

1/3—Goring (good)

1/4—Englishman (soft)

 

7.20: Seven four-year-olds have won this event via the last thirteen renewals years though frustratingly, no vintage representatives have been declared on this occasion!  ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eight contests and with KOOL KOMPNAY defending his 1/1 record at the track on behalf of the yard, Ryan Moore’s mount is the first name on the team sheet.  FIRMAMENT and MITCHUM SWAGGER are feared most.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 15 winners to date have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners). That said, the 8/11 market leader (Montiridge) was a Placepot casualty four years ago.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/1—Kool Kompany (good to firm)

 

7.50: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 9-1 or more thus far, albeit this is a ‘compressed’ handicap with just five pounds separating all 14 horses in the weights before jockey claims come into play.  This unfortunately means that we cannot eliminate any of the runners via the weight stats this time around but upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that CALL ME GRUMPY can beat DRAGONS VOICE and SALEIRI.  You can ignore the 5/1 quote in the trade press about the selection who is likely to be sent off at half of those odds.

Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners), though six gold medallists during the last 14 years were returned at 20/1--20/1--12/1--11/1--10/1--10/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season following four meetings + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—David Evans (1/12 – loss of 1 point)

5—Richard Hannon (0/6)

4—Ed Dunlop (0/2)

4—Hugo Palmer (0/2)

3—Michael Bell (1/2 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Charlie Hills (1/5 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Charlie Appleby (1/5 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (0/4)

2—David Brown (No runners)

2—Henry Candy (0/2)

2—Jane Chapple-Hyam (No runners)

2—Clive Cox (3/4 – Profit of 23 points)

2—Luca Cumani (0/2)

2—Philip Hide (No runners)

2—Richard Hughes (1/12 – loss of 4 points)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/4)

2—Gary Moore (0/4)

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Brighton: £650.80 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Towcester: £63.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wetherby: £1,395.20 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Kempton: £370.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced