Placepot Pointers – Saturday February 25

KEMPTON – FEBRUARY 25 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £3,166.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 10 (Alibi De Sivola), 1 (Rainy City) & 13 (Argante)

Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Charli Parcs), 7 (Fidux) & 5 (Percy Street)

Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Frodon) & 3 (Charmix)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (River Wylde), 2 (Elgin) & 1 (Capitaine)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Irish Saint), 9 (Ballykan) & 5 (Double Shuffle)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Sir Note) & 4 (Easy Street)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-2 or more which eliminates the bottom two horses in the handicap if you take the stats seriously, though many will include Nicky Henderson’s Fakenham winner AGRANTE I’ll wager.  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last nine renewals and narrowing the field, my ‘short list’ consists of Nicky’s stable companion ALIBI DE SIVOLA and RAINY CITY.  Although off the course for over 13 months, it’s difficult to entirely rule Shwaiman out of the equation.  There will certainly be worse outsiders on the Kempton card.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has obliged during the last 17 years with 10 of the 22 market leaders having secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.  13 contests have slipped by since the only successful favourite scored.  Seven recent winners scored at 33/1-22/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-11/1-10/1.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—River Frost (good to soft)

1/1—Coastal Tiep (good)

 

1.50: Some of the previous winners of this ‘Adonis’ event have gone all the way to the top of their respective sectors down the years, including Well Chief, Snow Drop and Punjabi, notwithstanding the likes of Binocular, Bilboa and Penzance.  Nicky Henderson has saddled three of the last ten winners (not represented three years ago), whilst Paul Nicholls has trained four gold medallists via his last eleven representatives.  Nicky saddles CHARLI PARCS and PERCY STREET this time around, though Paul Nicholls is not represented.  Course and distance winner FIDUX is added into the overnight mix.  It's worth noting the horses that leading trainers enter in these races, irrespective of how they run on the day.  Relevant representatives (as an example) two years ago both went on to win races within their next two assignments at 16/1 and 4/1.  This is the type of thinking we need to put into our analysis of certain races, especially when dealing with inmates of the top stables.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the last 18 years whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 19/1. 13 of the 18 market leaders finished in the money in this Triumph Hurdle trial.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/1—Charli Parcs (good)

1/1—Fidux (good to soft)

 

2.25: Paul Nicholls has saddled eight of the last eleven winners of the ‘Pendil’ whereby FRODON comes straight into contention, especially as Paul’s five-year-old has won five of his last seven races in the style of a horse with a fine future in the game.  Paul has not won the race with a five-year-old since Napolitain started the trainer’s great run of victories back in 2006 but with (seemingly) only CHARMIX to beat here, FRODON is the confident call.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in recent times, statistics which include ten winners.

 

3.00: Sire De Grugy was one of the sextet of five-year-old winners of this race during the last eleven years, though it does not look as though this renewal will produce a champion like Gary Moore's grand servant. Vintage representatives ELGIN, CAPITAINE and CAPTAIN FOREZ are listed in marginal order of preference.  RIVER WYLDE is also improving well enough to warrant his declaration.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won via the last sixteen renewals of this Grade 2 ‘Dovecoat’ contest, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame.  12 winners have scored at odds of 6/1 or less during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Elgin (good)

 

3.35: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last ten contests, having snared seven of the last eighteen renewals of this Grade 3 event, whilst 11 of the last 14 winners have carried 10-12 or more.  IRISH SAINT is unbeaten at this track (3/3) and the only eight-year-old in the field, whilst hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.  BALLYKAN sits right on the 10-12 mark and if the ground continues to dry out, the Twiston-Davies team could be celebrating another winner.  My trio against the remaining ten contenders is completed by DOUBLE SHUFFLE with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to Three Muskateers.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eighteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/4—Annacotty (good to soft & soft)

2/5—Theatre Guide (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Double Shuffle (good)

3/3—Irish Saint (good – soft – heavy)

1/2—Cocktails At Dawn (good)

1/1—Triolo D’Alene (soft)

1/6—Opening Batsman (good)

 

4.10: Seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals yet that edge (if you believe in trends) ‘bypassed’ trainers twelve months ago.  Seven of the last nine winners carried a minimum weight of 11-8 and putting the stats and facts together, I’m gambling on SIR NOTE (winner of six of his last nine races) and EASY STREET to land the dividend between them.  Out of interest, SIR NOTE is the only horse in the field that possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes and as in the case of Ballykan in the previous race on the card, absence of rain between now and flag fall would be regarded as a definite bonus.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 16 renewals of this event were secured by market leaders.  The biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at just 7/1.  The last eleven favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Full Shift (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Ballycoe (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

10 runners—Nicky Henderson (8/33 – loss of 14 points)

6—Alan King (5/18 – Slight profit)

6—Dan Skelton (3/31 – loss of 18 points)

5—Paul Nicholls (6/23 – loss of 1 point)

3—Gary Moore (1/10 – loss of 6 points)

3—Neil Mulholland (0/8)

3—Venetia Williams (0/4)

2—Harry Fry (1/7 – loss of 4 points)

2—Emma Lavelle (0/5)

2—Nigel Twiston Davies (2/10 – loss of 1 point)

2—Paul Webber (0/9)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £79.50 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Newcastle: £235.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Lingfield: £181.90 – 6 favourites – No winenrs – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday February 24

WARWICK – FEBRUARY 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £120.60 (11 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Warwick: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Coo Star Sivola) & 5 (Monsieur Co)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Night Of Sin) & 6 (Landin)

Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Celtic Park), 7 (How’s Vienna) & 1 (Royals And Rebels)

Leg 4 (3.35): 5 (Doitforthevillage), 6 (No Buts) & 7 (Ballygarvey)

Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (William Money) & 1 (Act Now)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Future Gilded), 2 (Land Of Vic) & 8 (Definite Memories)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Five-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and vintage representatives come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.  Only COO STAR SIVOLA represents the vintage, though the Nick Williams Assessor gelding looks to have as good a chance as any of lifting the prize.  A winner of a Listed event at Cheltenham on his penultimate start, COO STAR SIVOLA ran well enough in a Grade 2 race at the same venue last time out to suggest that these rivals might be extended to beat Lizzie Kelly’s mount this time around.  That said, MONSIEUR CO receives twelve pounds from the top weight taking the jockey claims into account which should bring the pair close together, notwithstanding the entry of GLOBAL STAGE who is another improving type.  The remaining trio look out of their depth in a warm contest with which to open proceedings.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last eleven contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at 9/1.  Market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in ten of the eleven relevant contests.

 

2.30: Nick Williams and Lizzie Kelly (Coo Star Sivola in the first race) team up again with obvious claims here via their recent Bangor winner NIGHT OF SIN who looks set to face similar (soft) conditions at Warwick on Friday.  The stats suggest that fancied horses perform well in this event (see details below), whereby LANDIN (ran in the German Derby last year) can improve on his course effort when showing plenty of promise at the first time of asking on these shores last month.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.  The previous eight winners had won at a top price of 7/1.

 

3.05: Seven-year-olds have secured three of the four available Placepot positions thus far and with CELTIC PARK being one of three vintage representatives this time around, the brief trend could be extended. With nothing else in the field particularly taking my eye, I’ll add the other two relevant entries into the mix, namely HOW’S VIENNA and ROYALS AND REBELS.

Favourite factor: Two of three favourites (via two renewals) have secured Placepot positions to date.

 

3.35: All seven toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum burden of 10-13, statistics which include the relevant winners of the three events at 7/2****, 7/2 & 7/4*.  Accordingly, DOITFORTHEVILLAGE, NO BUTS and BALLYGARVEY will form my Placepot permutation in leg four of our favourite wager.  The three horses are listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites to date have claimed Placepot positions via just three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Templehills (heavy)

1/1—Doitforthevillage (good to soft)

 

4.10: Tim Vaughan has his team in good nick at present and the trainer is wasting no time in sending out Wednesday’s Ludlow winner WILLIAM MONEY with an obvious chance.  ACT NOW is the obvious alternative option though as ever, we have to be on our guard from a Placepot perspective.  There is every chance that Anthony Honeyball’s latter named raider would be made favourite if Tim decides to withdraw the projected market leader whereby all our eggs would be in the one basket given that scenario.  That is always a dangerous stance to adopt whereby I will leave my entry until late in the day.  Should WILLIAM MONEY be declared a non-runner, I would replace the ten-year-old with OVER MY HEAD.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite finished out with the washing.

 

4.45:  DEFINITE MEMORIES has been off the track a long time I grant you, though the 14/1 trade press quote would be wiped off the boards in an instant should the Venetia Williams representative strip (relatively) fit in the parade ring.  I am going to gamble on that fitness by adding the ten-year-old into my Placepot equation alongside LAND OF VIC and FUTURE GILDED.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 9/2 market leader ran down the field, missing out on a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Kris Spin (soft)

1/2—Muckle Roe (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Warwick card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Martin Keighley (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

3—Tim Vaughan (1/13 – Profit of 38 points)

2—Kim Bailey (1/8 – Profit of 3 points)

2—Peter Bowen (1/13 – loss of 9 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/12)

2—Charlie Mann (0/3)

2—Seamus Mullins (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Matt Sheppard (0/5)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/22 (Profit of 3 points)

2—Nick Williams (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

2—Venetia Wiliams (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Richard Woollacott (No previous runner this season)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

59 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Exeter: £48.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £1,241.70 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £287.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot pointers – Thursday February 23

HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £21.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 9 (Arden Denis), 2 (Overawed) & 8 (Double Court)

Leg 2 (2.00): 3 (Sir Anthony Browne) & 13 (Walsingham Grange)

Leg 3 (2.35): 2 (Listen To The Man), 4 (Lady Longshot) & 3 (Solstalla)

Leg 4 (3.10): 2 (Actinpieces) & 1 (Desert Queen)

Leg 5 (3.45): 3 (King Of Glory), 1 (Morning Reggie) & 2 (Lemon’s Gent)

Leg 6 (4.20): 4 (Chato) & 1 (Bite The Biscuit)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.30: ARDEN DENIS would have been the choice anyway, but Neil Mulhollands’ recent ratio of 6/19 (yielding four points of level stake profit) puts the rubber stamp on the first name on the team sheet.  Tom George almost matches Neil’s recent haul having saddled just one more runner for the same number of winners, though Tom’s six winners have produced an even better haul of twelve points as far as profiteering is concerned.  Tom has offered the (each way) green light to OVERAWED, whilst I also respect the Placepot chance of DOUBLE COURT.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Huntingdon.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—Galatic Power (good)

 

2.00: SIR ANTHONY BROWNE offers more potential improvement to the other runners from my viewpoint, whereby Alan King’s raider is expected to follow up his recent Wincanton victory under heavy conditions.  The trade press suggests that there will only be light rain in and around the Huntingdon area today but from what I can determine via satellite pictures at four o’clock this morning, the wet stuff is already in evidence which is good news for supports of my selection and that of WALSINGHAM GRANGE I’ll wager.  This pair are preferred to Glaring and Crievehall.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 favourite found one too good despite claiming a Placepot position.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/1—Glaring (good to soft)

 

2.35: Dan Skelton is the only represented trainer to have saddled winners of late (plenty of them) whereby that fact alone suggests that his raider LISTEN TO THE MAN is given a chance to atone for his recent ‘beaten favourite’ tag.  I’m not going to ‘cover up’ his previous defeat at odds of 1/9 either but any semblance of a repeat of last year’s form which make up for those disappointments in this grade/company.  LADY LONGSHOT and SOLSTALLA are added into the mix in fear that the race becomes a ‘win only’ event via a withdrawal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite finished last of the seven runners who all completed the course

 

3.10: A winner of five of her last dozen assignments, ACTINPIECES is a really consistent mare who enjoys moisture in the ground and with Pam Sly having won with three of her last six runners, the six-year-old (youngest runner in the field) is expected go very close at around the 9/2 mark.  That said, I accept that the dual ‘Listed’ winner DESERT QUEEN deserves the favourite tag.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/2 favourite was beaten by a neck with the third horse finishing 16 lengths adrift in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might want to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses qualify for each way/Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/2—Kassis (good)

 

3.45: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-6, whilst eight of the nine horses to have secured Placepot positions have carried 11-5 or more.  KING OF GLORY would benefit from every drop of rain that falls in John Major’s old constituency, with showers predicted to have returned to the course mid-way through the afternoon. MORNING REGGIE was withdrawn from a race the other day from the other end of the handicap which makes for interesting reading, whilst LEMON’S GENT can rarely be overlooked at this this level.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured three gold medals and one of the silver variety.

 

4.20: CHATO was highly tried at Ascot recently having been turned over at odds of 1/3 on his previous start.  I’m a little surprised that Alan King didn’t go hurdling with his five-year-old immediately after his short price reversal but the trainer had sought out a decent opportunity at the first time of asking over timber.  JUST BEFORE DAWN is an interesting declaration with an eye to the future, though BITE THE BISCUIT should have the edge on fitness in terms of laying down some sort of challenge to the selection at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders claimed a Placepot position thus far by winning its respective event at 6/5.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

3—Tom George (2/2 – Profit of 5 points)

3—Paul Nicholls (1/4 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (3/20 – loss of 5 points)

3—Dan Skelton (1/13 – loss of 10 points)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/15 – loss of 4 points)

3—Paul Webber (1/4 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Kim Bailey (2/18 – loss of 9 points)

2—Martin Bosley (No previous runners this season)

2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners this season)

2—Claire Dyson (0/7)

2—Harry Fry (0/2)

2—Philip Hobbs (0/7)

2—Alan King (4/18 – Loss of 1 point)

2—Neil King (0/5)

2—Tom Lacey (1/3 – Profit of 14 points)

2—David Loughnane (No previous runners this season)

2—Neil Mulholland (3/11 – Profit of 6 points)

2—Richard Phillips (1/7 – loss of 1 point)

2—Pam Sly (0/1)

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7)

2—Jamie Snowden (2/7 – Profit of 2 points)

+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

82 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Sedgefield: £8.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £32.50 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £543.60 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday February 22

LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: Meeting abandoned

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 8 (Ridgeway Flyer) & 11 (Calling Des Blins)

Leg 2 (2.35): 2 (Lou Vert) & 4 (Mercian King)

Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (One More Hero), 4 (Step Back) & 6 (Westend Story)

Leg 4 (3.35): 4 (He’s A Bully), 7 (William Money) & 5 (Better Days)

Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Applesandpierres), 10 (Hill Fort) & 3 (I’m A Game Changer)

Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Mendip Express) & 2 (Mr Mercurial)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 4/9 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around.  RIDGEWAY FLYER, CALLING DES BLINS and JOHANOS head my overnight ratings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.

Record of the course winner in the first race:

1/1—Ridgeway Flyer (good)

 

2.35: The last four horses saddled by Paul Nicholls have won and though LOU VERT is not one of the shining stars back at the ranch, Sam Twiston-Davies looks poised to close aboard the youngest (five-year-old) runner in the contest.  Only MERCIAN KING of the older raiders has proved consistent of late, with Amy Murphy’s beaten favourite given another chance alongside the marginal selection.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

 

3.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals and with five of the eight declarations representing the vintage this time around, the trend looks set to continue.  ONE MORE HERO and WESTEND STORY are two likely types, with seven-year-old STEP BACK rated as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.

 

3.35: This race would be particularly interesting towards flag fall if the ‘dead eight’ runners remain intact.  Call me a cynic if you like, but I’m thinking the price about that scenario unfolding being around a 5/4 chance, which equates to 44%.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that HE’S A BULLY, WILLIAM MONEY and BETTER DAYS are the first names on the overnight team sheet.  The latter named raider is only ‘third best’, given that he has failed to put back to back victories together thus far despite possessing more than his fair share of talent.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

2/4—Ultimatum Du Roy (good & good to soft)

 

4.10: The second and third horses in the handicap make most appeal at the overnight stage, namely APPLESANDPIERRES and I’M A GAME CHANGER.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than course and distance winner HILL FORT I'll wager, whilst any withdrawals would bring STAMP YOUR FEET into the equation.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the course winners in the first race:

1/5—Canadian Diamond (good to soft)

1/4—Hill Fort (soft)

 

4.45: Results have worked out positively (as usual) in Hunter Chase’ events as you can see below, with this type of race offering some of the best market leader stats under either code of our favourite sport. Two horses stand out from the crowd here in MENDIP EXPRESS and MR MERCURIAL, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have been returned at a top price of 9/2 (two successful favourites), whilst the other gold medallist was hardly a 'skinner' in the books having scored at 8/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Dan Skelton (2/10 – loss of 7 points)

5—Philip Hobbs (3/13 – loss of 1 point)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/21 – loss of 7 points)

3—Nigel Hawke (0/4)

3—Ian Williams (0/3)

2—Kim Bailey (1/12 – loss of 6 points)

2—Lady Susan Brooke (0/3)

2—James Evans (0/1)

2—Alex Hales 2/3 – Profit of 18 points)

2—Aslan King (6/11 – Profit of 5 points)

2—Paul Nicholls (1/4 – loss of 2 points)

2—Matt Sheppard (0/6)

2—Tom Vaughan (1/11 – loss of 2 points)

2—Tom Weston (0/6)

2—Evan Williams (2/10 – loss of 22 points)

2—Noel Williams (1/3 – Profit of 2 points)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £33.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £105.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Kempton: £2,566.60 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday February 21

TAUNTON – FEBRUARY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £32.90 (6 favourite: 2 winners--3 placed--1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Taunton: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 1 (Oscar Jane), 11 (Margaret’s Rose) & 7 (Actlikeacountess)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Master Burbridge), 1 (Lake Shore Drive) & 2 (New Vennture)

Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Cajun Fiddle) & 3 (Verdana Blue)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Towering) & 3 (Bells Of Ailsworth)

Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Tommy Silver), 2 (Bertimont) & 5 (Work In Progress)

Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Monsieur Gibraltar) & 1 (Delta Borget)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: OSCAR JANE finished second in this event last year off an official mark of 97.  Five pounds higher this time around, Johnny Farrelly’s ten-year-old is looking to improve her fine Taunton stats still further in a race which is high on numbers but short in depth.  Johnny’s mare won at the track next time out last season on better ground and under similar conditions today, OSCAR JANE is the horse to beat.  Taking her on with each way chances here are MARGARET’S ROSE and ACTLIKEACOUNTESS.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have obliged at 5/2 & 13/8.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

3/6—Oscar Jane (good – soft – heavy)

 

2.50: MASTER BURBRIDGE is looking to become the third six-year-old winner in the seventh renewal of the contest and with Neil Mulholland continuing to send out winners for fun, Noel Fehily’s mount is the first name on the team sheet, certainly from a Placepot perspective. LAKE SHORE DRIVE is another Farrelly raider on the card with claims, whilst NEW VENNTURE completes my trio against the remaining fourteen contenders.

Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include (9/4 & 6/4) two winners.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/6—All But Grey (heavy)

 

3.20: Tread carefully here (see favourites stats below) because although only a few horses in the field make any appeal from a win perspective, such cash should be kept for another day aside from our Placepot interest.  The likes of CAJUN FIDDLE and VERDANA BLUE will surely figure in the finish at the business end of proceeding, closely followed by Midnight Glory I’ll wager, but that’s where my interest ends.

Favourite factor: All three (very short) odds on favourites have finished in the frame thus far, though only one has prevailed from a win perspective.  The other two finished second in their respective events at 1/3 & 1/2.

 

3.50: Nicky Henderson’s Catcher In The Rye gelding TOWERING need only reproduce his debut effort over the bigger obstacles to go very close in this grade/company.  A three time winner of timber, the only worry is that Nicky’s raider has failed to put back to back victories together to date, whereby two successive good efforts cannot be taken for granted.  If the projected favourite lets supporters down, course and distance winner BELLS OF AILSWORTH might prove to be the beneficiary.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Taunton card.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Bells Of Ailsworth (good to firm)

1/6—Somerset Lass

 

4.20: Five-year-olds have won three of the six contests thus far, whilst four of the last five gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 11-1.  TOMMY SILVER is the only vintage representative in the field, whilst the Paul Nicholls raider is one of five qualifiers via the weight trend.  This is no coincidence as Paul plans his runners to meticulous detail.  Dan Skelton saddles three in the race, the pick of which should prove to be BERTIMONT and WORK IN PROGRESS.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame (two winners at 7/4 & 5/2**) via six renewals to date.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/5—Workbench (good)

 

4.50: DELTA BORGET returns to defend his crown though carrying an additional eight pounds this time around (even taking in the relevant jockey claim), the twelve-year-old might find MONSIER GIBRALTAR too strong close home, especially under far better conditions twelve months on.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Delta Borget (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Dan Skelton (2/8 – loss of 2 points)

4—Johnny Farrelly (2/11 – loss of 4 points)

4—Nail Mulholland (0/7)

3—Alexandra Dunn (0/9)

3—Harry Fry (6/13 – Profit of 3 points)

3—Alan King (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)

3—Colin Tizzard (0/5)

3—Tim Vaughan (1/12 – loss of 8 points)

2—Jo Davis (No previous runners this season)

2—Jimmy Frost (0/8)

2—Mark Gillard (0/10)

2—Carroll Gray (0/3)

2—Nigel Hawke (1/11 – loss of 5 points)

2—Nicky Henderson (2/5 – slight loss)

2—Philip Hobbs (2/13 – loss of 6 points)

2—Martin Keighley (1/11 – loss of 6 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/5)

2—Richard Phillips (0/5)

2—Bill Turner (0/1)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (3/7 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Evan Williams (1/7 – loss of 4 points)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

83 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: £67.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Southwell: £8.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday February 20

WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 20 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £28.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners--2 placed--1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 9 (Goldmadchen), 1 (Senor George) & 8 (Miss Macchiato)

Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Bush House) & 5 (War At Sea)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (King Oswald), 5 (Tenerezza) & 8 (Dunquin)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Boom The Groom), 4 (Judicial) & 3 (Encore D’Or)

Leg 5 (4.20): 9 (Pushkin Museum) & 1 (Berlios)

Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (It Must Be Faith) & 3 (Billyoakes)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: 12 of the last 14 winners have scored at 11/1 or less which is not too bad a record in this type of (amateur) event.  Regular readers will know that I play the 'jockeys' in these events rather than the horses because let's be honest about it, runners that are declared for these races by and large have lost any pace they once possessed, as opposed to the pilots who offer a great deal of difference in the saddle in terms of ability.  The relevant pilots will doubtless give plenty of assistance to the likes of GOLDMADCHEN, SENOR GEORGE and MISS MACCHIATO.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and three joint favourites have scored via fourteen contests to date.  Thirteen of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Frivolous Prince

3/13—Goldmadchen

1/21—Rainford Glory

 

2.40: Three-year-olds have won five of the eight contests, with vintage representatives being 1/5 to extend the advantage before the form book is consulted.  The pick of the quintet of relevant raiders on this occasion could prove to be BUSH HOUSE and WAR AT SEA.  The Richard Hughes newcomer WATERVILLE DANCER could be the joker in the pack, given that the bar has not been set too highly by the experienced declarations.

Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by without a successful favourite being recorded since the inaugural (6/4) market leader obliged.  Seven of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include the (10/11) bronze medallist two years ago.

 

3.10: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 4-3 via the last seven renewals and with the two vintages taking up six of the 13 declarations, four-year-old representatives KING OSWALD and TENEREZZA might repel challenges from the 'senior' raider DUNQUIN close home.

Favourite factor: Eight of the nine winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include four successful market leaders.  That said, three of the five favourites which failed to win also missed out on toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the third contest:

1/4—Argaki

1/7—King Osward

1/10—Sham Lan

3/12—Mary Le Bow

1/4—John Caesar

 

3.45: Eight of the nine available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones, statistics which include all three winners at 20/1, 12/1 and 7/2*.  Seven of the eleven runners are eliminated from my enquiries accordingly if taking jockey claims into consideration.  This leaves last year’s winner BOOM THE GROOM, JUDICIAL and ENCORE D’OR to carry our Placepot cash between them.

Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the two beaten favourites, before last year’s 7/2 market leader obliged.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

2/4—Boom The Groom

2/2—Encore D’Or

1/2—Juducial

1/2—Bowson Fred

1/5—Royal Birth

1/5—Sign Of The Zodica

1/2—Jordan Sport

2/6—Red Baron

 

4.20: The handicapper is beginning to endure sleepless nights with dual course and distance winner PUSHKIN MUSEUM showing no sign of the penalties stopping the bandwagon rolling on, despite running off an eleven pound higher mark than when first successful last month.  BERLIOS appears to be the main threat if he can adapt to this Tapeta surface at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wolverhampton card.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

5/23—Coolourbearer

2/4—Pushkin Museum

1/23—Divine Call

 

4.55: IT MUST BE FAITH represents Michael Appleby who was one of the top trainers last week under either code.  Five of Michael’s last fourteen runners have won, figures which have produced 24 points of level stake profit.  Others of interest include BILLYOAKES and DOCTOR PARKES.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new contest on the Wolverhampton programme.

Record of the course winners in the sixth event:

1/8—Doctor Parkes

1/8—Fleckerl

1/7—Billyoakes

1/5—It Must Be Faith

1/2—Major Valentine

3/30—Indian Affair

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wolverhampton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Keith Dalgleish (4/28 – loss of 6 points)

5—David Evans (9/84 – loss of 33 points)

3—Tony Carroll (3/43 – loss of 19 points)

3—James Given (4/23 – Profit of 21 points)

3—Mark Johnston (4/51 – loss of 18 points)

3—Stuart Williams (2/16 – loss of 6 points)

2—Michael Appleby (8/68 – loss of 17 points)

2—Milton Bradley (1/30 – loss of 20 points)

2—Julie Camacho (1/2 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—Michael Herrington (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)

2—Richard Hughes (2/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—David Simcock (7/25 – Profit of 8 points)

2—Charlie Wallis (1/8 – Profit of 5 points)

+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Carlisle: £149.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Lingfield’s fixture hails from a bygone age

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday February 19

MARKET RASEN – FEBRUARY 19 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £20.80 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Queen Odessa) & 1 (All My Love)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (One Big Love), 1 (Mo Chailin) & 4 (Martha McCandles)

Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Caius Mercius), 7 (Castafiore) & 2 (Dream Berry)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Chidswell), 2 (Speredek) & 3 (Holly Bush Henry)

Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Fields Of Glory) & 4 (Asuncion)

Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (The Mythologist) & 2 (Monderon)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Market Rasen has always been a difficult track to assess and today’s card in no different to normal.  No trainer saddles more than two runners on the card, whilst the venue seldom points to trainers boasting great stats at the venue.  No current trainer has saddled more than two winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years though to be entirely fair, favourites have won half of the races during the period.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that the positive favourite stats should continue with QUEEN ODESSA having been declared.  Harry Fry is back among the winners whereby the six-year-old should not have too much trouble in coping with TREACKLE TART and ALL MY LOVE.  Pam Sly’s latter named raider was still going well when tipping up at Wetherby when the taps had been turned on and it remains to be seen if she has mentally recovered from that tumble.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (8/15) favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: MARTHA MCCANDLES was entering my ‘last chance saloon’ when scoring at Exeter the last day and remaining in contests confined to mares seems to be a sensible move for the six-year-old (Alan King) representative for the time being.  Harry Fry could (in theory) notch a double via the first two events on the card (his only runners) with ONE BIG LOVE having been offered a realistic target in this grade/company.  That said, Donald McCain (MO CHAILIN) boasts a 25% strike during the last fortnight via seven winners whereby the top weight is not easily cast aside.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 market leader found one too good when claiming a Placepot position.

 

3.00: Nicky Richards has won with six of his last seventeen runners with each gold medallist having been sent off as the market leader in its respective event.  Whether CAIUS MARCIUS is supported into favouritism is doubtful but either way, Nicky’s three time winner looks the safest option here, especially from a Placepot perspective having finished in the frame (exact science) six times via eight assignments thus far. Barring the way here are the recent Ludlow winner CASTAFIORE and (possibly) Jonjo’s course and distance winner DREAM BERRY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 7/4 favourite was the only horse which failed to complete the course.

Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:

1/1—Dream Berry (soft)

 

3.30: Friday’s Sandown winner SPEREDEK remains on course to run here at the time of writing though a penalty for that success will make life tough for Nigel Hawke’s raider, though two winners and a silver medallist have emerged from the yard’s last four runners.  CHIDSWELL is the other Nicky Richards runner on the card and with the Sedgefield winner have had an additional five days to recover from his exertions compared to Speredek, Craig Nicol’s mount is taken to follow up successfully. HOLLY BUSH HENRY won four of his first six races but the same number of assignments have subsequently been contested without adding to the score. As short as even money as I write this column, those odds fail to attract from a value for money perspective.  If Speredek is withdrawn late doors, the race will become a ‘win only’ event which demands that I include all three runners in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Market Rasen card.

 

4.00: As far as English trainers are concerned, Tim Vaughan stands in third place in supplying Richard Johnson with the winners this season (12 in total) and the pair team up in the last two races on the card.  FIELDS OF GLORY is the relevant entry here and at around the even money mark, the seven-year-old King’s Best raider makes more appeal from a win perspective than Holy Bush Henry in the previous race at around the same price.  From a Placepot perspective however, this is already a ‘win only’ event whereby course and distance winner ASUNCION is added into the equation.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders claimed a Placepot position by winning the inaugural event at odds of 6/4.  Last year’s 11/8 favourite was beaten in a ‘win only’ contest.

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

3/10—Make Me A Fortune (good – good to soft – soft)

1/1—Asuncion (soft)

 

4.30: All five winners to date have carried 10-10 with THE MYTHOLOGIST representing the Vaughan Johnson bandwagon hailing from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.  MONDERON represents Fergal O’Brien who boasts a 23% record at the track this season via six winners, statistics which have yielded 27 points of level stake profit.

Favourite factor: Only two of the six favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, whist we still await the first success market leader from a win perspective.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Market Rasen card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

2 runners each on Sunday:

Tony Carroll (0/2)

Harry Fry (2/5 – Profit of 2 points)

Tom Gretton (2/6 – Profit of 24 points)

Alan King (0/14)

Charlie Longsdon (4/18 – Profit of 1 point)

Nicky Richards (2/11 – Loss of 5 points)

Sue Smith (0/12)

Tim Vaughan (1/21 – loss of 15 points)

+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

35 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ffos Las: £49.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday February 18

ASCOT – FEBRUARY 18

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £171.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:
Leg 1 (1.15): 2 (Beyond Conceit) & 5 (Topofthegame)
Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Arpege D’Alene), 4 (Laurium) & 6 (Label Des Oneaux)
Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Chef D’Oeuvre), 6 (Go Conquer) & 3 (O’Faolains Bay)
Leg 4 (3.00): 11 (Divine Spear), 9 (Templeross) & 7 (Air Horse One)
Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Cue Card) & 5 (Taquin De Seuil)
Leg 6 (4.10): 2 (Definite Chance), 1 (Bon Enfant) & 3 (Joe Farrell)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 
1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared the last six contests between them and course winner TOPOFTHEGAME and DE DOLLAR MAN make some appeal. That said, Nicky Henderson secured a 32/1 double on the corresponding card last year and BEYOND CONCEIT should take the beating to maintain the recent trend of good results for the Seven Barrows yard.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
1/1—Topofthegame (good to soft)

 

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 18 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event, with ARPEGE D’ALENE and LAURIUM catching the eye at first glance relating to the relevant declarations. Six-year-old LABEL DES OBEAUX is an obvious danger, whilst FLINTHAM is a full brother to Carruthers who snared this race back in 2009. This is a truly fascinating contest.
Favourite factor: The last 18 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2. 10 favourites secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Fletchers Flyer (soft)
2/2—Arpege D’Alene (soft)
1/1—Flintham (good to soft)

 

2.25: 11 of the 15 toteplacepot positions to date have been claimed by horses carrying a maximum weight of 11-3, statistics which include all five (9/1-7/1-4/1-11/4*-5/4*) of the six winners. The weight trends suggest GO CONQUER, O FAOLAINS BOY and CHEF D’OEUVRE will figure prominently and I cannot envisage all three horses finishing out of the frame.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/2—Sausolito Sausage (soft)
1/3—Tenor Niovernais (soft)
1/3—O’Faolains Boy (soft)

 

3.00: Nine of the last eleven winners (including eight of the last nine gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2, whilst six-year-olds have won three of the last renewals, with seven-year-olds claiming the other two recent renewals. Taking all the facts and stats into account, DIVINE SPEAR, TEMPLEROSS and AIR HORSE ONE make most appeal, the trio having been listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/1—Krugermac (soft)

 

3.35: It goes without saying that CUE CARD is the class act on the Ascot card but there is just a chance this this trip could find him out now, especially as the trip looks spot on for TAQUIN DE SEUIL. The latter named Jonjo O’Neill raider could be classed as a little disappointing I guess following some very promising efforts earlier in his career. Granted, the ten-year-old could have the best of his days behind him but as a ten time winner, Jonjo’s representative is no ‘back number’ just yet I’ll wager. CUE CARD would only have to be in ‘Sunday mode’ to prove difficult to beat however, whereby TAQUIN DE SEUIL is offered mainly as the forecast/alternative Placepot call.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 18 market leaders during the study period claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include twelve successful market leaders. Nine of the last eleven favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.
Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:
1/1—Cue Card (soft)
2/6—Royal Regatta (2 x good to soft)

 

4.10: Richard Johnson has ridden two of the five horses this season for Emma Lavelle to winning effect. Richard take the ride aboard FORTUNATE GEORGE with a definite chance in proving the ratio. I don’t make a habit of picking the top three horses in the weight as a general rule of thumb, but precious little else appeals in a disappointing finale from my viewpoint, despite the number of entries.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/2 favourite found one two good for him last year when claiming a Placepot position.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)

 
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Alan King (1/10 – loss of 8 points)
5—Rebecca Curtis (0/2)
5—Gary Moore (2/4 – Profit of 17 points)
5—Paul Nicholls (6/29 – loss of 2 points)
5—Jonjo O’Neill (0/12)
4—Nicky Henderson (6/23 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Harry Fry (1/8 – loss of 5 points)
2—Sue Gardner (No previous runners this season)
2—Warren Greatrex (1/5 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (2/17 – Profit of 7 points)
2—Sue Smith (No previous runners this season)
2—Colin Tizzard (2.14 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/2)
2—Evan Williams (0/3)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Haydock: £3,919.70 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wincanton: £400.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £720.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton: £129.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Placepot Pointers – Friday February 17

SANDOWN – FEBRUARY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £24.10 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 8 (Centurius), 4 (Barayami) & 3 (Cleni Wells)

Leg 2 (2.10): 1 (Pougne Bobbi) & 5 (Icing On The Cake)

Leg 3 (2.40): 1 (Colin’s Sister) & 5 (Theatre Territory)

Leg 4 (3.15): 3 (Troika Steppes), 6 (Rathlin Rose) & 4 (Ardkilly Witness)

Leg 5 (3.45): 4 (Percy Street) & 3 (Early Du Lemo)

Leg 6 (4.15): 1 (King Of Glory), 6 (Private Malone) & 3 (Knight Of Noir)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: Venetia Williams (CENTURIUS) and Jamie Snowden (BARAYMI) are sending out recent winners regarding the assembled trainers and it would come as no surprise to see either of their runners scoring in this grade/company.  Jack Sherwood continues to impress in the saddle and though Chieftain’s Choice is weighted to reverse Kempton form with CLENI WELLS, I tend to side with horses that have actually won of late given that scenario.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing to date.

 

2.10: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 or more though unfortunately, those figures only eliminate one of the nine runners on this occasion.  Nicky Henderson has negated the recent penalty incurred by POUGNE BOBBI for the recent Ludlow victory by hiring the services of a ‘conditional pilot’.  ICING ON THE CAKE was a decent winner at Newbury on his penultimate start before failing to complete the course in the same Ludlow event which Pougne Bobbi won.  There might not be much daylight between the pair if Oliver Sherwood’s seven-year-old safely negotiates the obstacles this time around.

Favourite factor: Five renewals have passed since the last favourite prevailed, albeit the top priced winner was returned at just 15/2 during the period.  Just three of the seven favourites secured Placepot positions in those five years.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/5—Fairy Rath (2 x soft)

 

2.40: Anthony Honeyball has his team in good nick just now whereby I would not put an immediate line through the chance of his recent Warwick winner MS PARFOIS, despite the ‘rag quote’ of 12/1 in the trade press.  That said from a win perspective, COLIN’S SISTER makes most appeal despite giving five pounds to all of her rivals.  Coming to the gig on a four timer, Fergal O’Brien’s consistent mare has recorded an aggregate winning distance of 19 lengths via the three relevant victories under similar ground conditions to what she will encounter today.  THEATRE TERRITORY is an interesting declaration if you are looking to take on the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: The three market leaders thus far have claimed two gold medals and one of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions.

 

3.15: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last five contests, though with only Bailey’s Dream representing the vintage this time around, even this self-confessed ‘anorak’ won’t be tempted to remain loyal to the cause.  More likely winners of this year’s renewal of the ‘Royal Artillery’ include TROIKA STEPPES, RATHLIN ROSE and ARDKILLY WITNESS.

Favourite factor: Four of the last five favourites have finished in the frame, as have seven market leaders during the last decade.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Irish Thistle (soft)

 

3.45: Gary Moore’s 0/23 ratio at Sandown this season defies belief, given his haul of 10/25 the previous term, figures which produced level stake profits of 66 points!  Gary has offered the green light to EARLY DU LEMO with a chance though once again, the stable looks set to be thwarted, this time by Nicky Henderson’s Taunton winner PERCY STREET.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, with eight gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 3/1.

 

4.15: The nine winners during the last decade have carried eleven stones or more whereby the bottom four horses would normally be ignored.  That said, the three pound claim of Charlie Deutsch catches the eye again and with KING OF GLORY carrying a feather weight accordingly, the heavy ground winner is added into the Placepot equation.  PRIVATE MALONE and KNIGHT OF NOIR should also enable us to land the dividend if we make it through to the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include three successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Peat The Feat (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

6 runners—Venetia Williams (1/9 – loss of 4 points)

4—Gary Moore (0/23)

3—Nicky Henderson (7/15 – Profit of 9 points)

2—Tony Carroll (0/7)

2—Alan King (3/7 – Slight profit)

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/4 – Profit of 7 points)

2—David Pipe (0/2)

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/2)

2—Jamie Snowden (0/1)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 3 points)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fakenham: £64.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £223.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

There was no meeting at Newcastle last year

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday February 16

LEICESTER – FEBRUARY 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £356.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners--1 placed--3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 3 (Barton Rose), 2 (Edgar) & 4 (Triple Chief)

Leg 2 (2.35): 4 (Storming Strumpet), 5 (Crown Hill) & 6 (Texas Forever)

Leg 3 (3.10): 7 (Morning Reggie) & 6 (Crosspark)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Un Prophete) & 2 (Winner Massagot)

Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Song Saa), 2 (Timon’s Tara) & 5 (Money Maid)

Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Samarnni) & 2 (Olofi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

 

2.05: Only Charlie Longsdon is turning out ‘regular’ winners of the seven represented trainers of late, whereby BARTON ROSE is the first name on the team sheet. Charlie’s beaten favourite is worth another chance in this company/grade, with connections probably having most to fear from the recent Towcester winner EDGAR and TRIPLE CHIEF,

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to start proceedings.

Record of the course winner in the opening event on the card – the only horse at the track on Thursday to have won at Leicester:

2/5—Some Finish (2 x heavy)

 

2.35: Tom George saddles the first of his four runners at Leicester on Thursday, boasting a 57% strike rate at the track this season. STORMING STRUMPET is obviously not one of the leading lights in the yard but with 33 stable winners having emerged since the end of October, the Kayf Tara mare is the first hose to consider according to the gospel of yours truly.  That said, the handicapper has been very lenient with CROWN HILL of late, Johnny Farrellly’s raider having run off just about the same mark on each of his last four assignments (winning one of them) despite finishing in front of 29 horses in the process, with just eight beating him home.  TEXAS FOREVER is the other potential winner in the field.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have claimed Placepot positions via three renewals, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

 

3.10: The three winners to date have carried a maximum burden of 11-6 whereby the bottom two horses in the weights make the most appeal, namely MORNING REGGIE and CROSSPARK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference.  Sitting just two pounds above the ‘superior’ weight barrier is ALWAYS ON THE RUN from the Tom George yard.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

3.45: Five time winner UN PROPHETE seeks a hat trick here in this ‘win only’ contest and with Charlie Deutsch continuing to offer great value for his three pound claim, the Venetia Williams raider should complete the treble.  WINNER MASSAGOT is feared most.  Champagne At Tara is proving to be very disappointing of late.

Favourite factor: The three runners in the inaugural contest last year finished in reverse order in terms of their starting prices at 5/2, 2/1 & 5/4.

 

4.20: SONG SAA was a nice (well backed 4/1) winner for us at Huntingdon recently, proving what a strong hand Tom George has on this card on Thursday.  Daniel Sansom has yet to ride a winner over fences following 15 attempts (three hurdle successes to his name to be fair) but until that victory comes along, I will swerve his mount Kentford Myth here, preferring to nominate TIMON’S TARA and MONEY MAID as the main dangers on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Leicester programme.

 

4.50: Having ridden the thick end of 50 winners under rules, Gina Andrews is always worth a length or three in these amateur events, as is the case again here aboard SAMARNNI. Beaten favourite OLOFI is the obvious danger at the overnight stage in my book.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market leader duly obliged.

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Tom George (4/7 – Profit of 9 points)

3—David Bridgwater (0/4)

2—Caroline Bailey (1/5 – Profit of 1 point)

2—Robin Dickin (1/6 – slight loss)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (3/12 – loss of 3 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

38 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kelso: £34.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: £12.00 – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Lingfield: £18.40 – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Apology offered for the lack of service on Wednesday – green light for Thursday onward

I will be back with Thursday's Leicester analysis this afternoon having undergone something of a traumatic day in hospital yesterday.

All is well for the future whereby the Leicester work should be available by 5.00 this afternoon.

Apologies again, the problem being of my making and not that of Geegeez!

Best of luck today - Mal

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday February 14

FONTWELL – FEBRUARY 14

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £33.30 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Brian Bear), 6 (Shrubland) & 9 (Day Of Roses)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Flemcara) & 4 (Kayf Adventure)

Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Tara Bridge) & 2 (Midtech Valentine)

Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Casper King), 2 (Not Another Muddle) & 7 (The Mighty Don)

Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Ballycoe), 5 (Log Loch Luke) & 1 (Johns Luck)

Leg 6 (4.30): 8 (Reel Leisure) & 3 (Fafa)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Six-year-olds have won both renewals thus far and in BROWN BEAR, the vintage is well represented.  Nick Gifford’s Yeats gelding is equipped with ‘pieces’ for the first time here though from what we have witnessed thus far, this aid can only be attributed to an edge of concentration edge.  SHRUBLAND and DAY OF ROSES are feared most.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Dainty Diva (soft)

1/10—Thepartysover (soft)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds come to gig on a hat trick via just two previous renewals, with Emma Lavelle seemingly being the trainer to have notice the edge having declared the only vintage representative, namely FLEMCARA.  Emma’s Flemensfirth raider is the first name on the team sheet accordingly, naming KAYF ADVENTURE and ROBINROYALE as the main threats.  Daryl Jacob has the job of steadying FLEMCARA who ran a little too freely first time up under rules.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won both contests thus far.

Record of course winner in the second race:

1/1—King Uther (good to soft)

 

3.00: Horses carrying 11-7 or more have won both races to date, whilst securing three of the four available Placepot positions and I expect the trend to continue, with TARA BRIDGE and MIDTECH VALENTINE having been declared from towards the top of the handicap.

Favourite factor: One of the two market leaders has claimed a Placepot position without winning the relevant event.

Record of course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Midtech Valentine (good)

 

3.30: Six-year-olds have won both contests thus far and the brief trend should be extended by NOT ANOTHER MUDDLE and particularly CASPER KING, who has terms and conditions in his favour.  Nick Gifford’s local raider THE MIGHTY DON, is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint, albeit CASPER KING is very much the call.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have secured gold and silver medals to date.

Record of course winner in the fourth event:

1/2—Not Another Muddle (soft)

 

4.00: LEG LOCH LUKE is hardly one of the leading lights in the Tizzard stable, but Colin seems to have found a half decent opportunity for his only runner on the Fontwell card, certainly from an each way/Placepot perspective.  It could be argued that more likely winners in the line-up are BALLYCOE and JOHNS LUCK.

Favourite factor: Although the two favourites have claimed gold and silver medals thus far, only one Placepot position was gained as the runner up found one too good in a ‘win only’ contest.

Record of course winners in the penultimate contest:

1/2—Bredon Hill Lad (heavy)

 

4.30: REEL LEISURE only has to repeat a fine effort at Newbury second time up to have his rivals in trouble here, such was the impact he made at the Berkshire venue.  Harry Cobden is another positive factor with the pilot (respectfully) standing out from the crowd in terms of experienced jockeyship.  FAFA is expected to put up a decent showing at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: Both (4/5) favourite have prevailed in the Placepot finale.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

3 runners—Chris Gordon (4/36 – loss of 6 points)

3—Sue Gardner (No previous runners this season)

2—David Dennis (0/9)

2—Nikki Evans (0/1)

2—Nick Gifford (1/10 – loss of 4 points)

2—Philip Hobbs (3/14 – loss of 4 points)

2—Linda Jewell (0/7)

2—Gary Moore (8/53 – loss of 23 points)

2—Paul Nicholls (8/18 – Profit of 14 points)

2—Daniel Steele (0/4)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

46 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £91.00 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

There was no meeting at Newcastle on the corresponding day

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday February 13

WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 13

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £87.80 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 5 (Persistence) & 3 (Flood Warning)

Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (My Rosie), 5 (Shee’s Lucky) & 4 (Haraka)

Leg 3 (3.20): 2 (Dutch Uncle), 3 (Final) & 4 (Toga Tiger)

Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Coillte Cailin), 2 (Vettori Rules) & 7 (Perfect Cracker)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Miss Dusky Diva) & 3 (Delagoa Bay)

Leg 6 (4.50): 9 (Chandresh), 2 (Dandilion) & 7 (Give Us A Belle)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday day - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: Three-year-olds have won all eight renewals to date, albeit via the thick end of 70% of the total number of runners.  Junior raiders are 2/5 to extend the trend before form is taken into account, with PERSISTENCE and FLOOD WARNING heading the interesting list ahead of four-year-old Sea Dweller at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Five of the last six market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.

 

2.50: Mark Johnston has long since been known as the leading trainer of three-year-old handicappers north of Watford and his well backed 3/1 winner in the first running of this race twelve months ago was tipped up by up yours truly. Any money for SHEE’S LUCKY would be of interest accordingly.  That said, MY ROSIE and HARAKA are serious threats judged on their runner up on their respective runner-up efforts last time out.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/4 favourite finished out of the frame back in third place in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horse qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.  This race could develop into such a contest if one, two or three non-runners rear their ugly heads today.  In the event of late withdrawals, it’s as well to try and oppose the favourite as units on the non-runner are automatically transferred onto the market leader.

 

3.20: Five-year-olds won the first two renewals before last year’s lone (7/1) representative finished down the field.  There is a chance that the race will ‘revert to type’ (despite its brief history) with DUTCH UNCLE and FINAL being this year’s two vintage raiders.  Despite being the oldest runner in the field at ten years of age, three time course winner TOGA TIGER could outrun his odds from a Placepot perspective, albeit he has not won off this sort of mark since 2009.
Favourite factor: Just one of the three favourites secured a Placepot position to date when winning the inaugural contest at odds of 6/4 in 2014.

Record of course winners in the third race:

2/3--Marshgate Lane

1/3--Dutch Uncle

1/2--Final

3/10--Toga Tiger

3/10--Pivotman

5/14--Spes Nostra

 

3.50: The lone four-year-old comes to the gig on a hat trick, having secured four of the seven available Placepot positions via just 28% of the total number of runners.  Gay Kelleway is the trainer to be live to the situation having offered the green light to VETTORI RULES who is quoted as the rag of the field in the trade press.  Five time course winner COILLTE CAILIN was a winner on this card last year, whilst PERFECT CRACKER is another in the line-up who saves some of his best work for this circuit.
Favourite factor: Three market leaders have all claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:

2/5--Winterlude

2/5--John Reel

1/9--Pearl Nation

5/22--Coiltte Cailin

1/2--Pactolus

4/15--Perfect Cracker

 

4.20: It’s difficult to look beyond MISS DUSKY DIVA who seems to thrive over extreme distances and a twelve pound hike for her last two wins might still leave the handicapper scratching his/her head as the sun goes down this afternoon.  DELAGOA BAY only boasts a nine per cent strike rate, though three of her five wins have been gained in marathon events whereby the two mares could dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders (via just two renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, with one of last year’s 15/8 joint favourites having secured gold.

 

Record of course winners in the fifth race:

1/5--Miss Dusky Diva

1/23--Delagoa Bay

2/18--Lineman

2/16--Yorkshireman

 

4.50: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared six of the last nine renewals, whilst nine of the last ten gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of nine stones. It’s odd that no five-year-olds have been declared given the sextet of ‘junior’ representatives which have been given the green light.  The pick of the six should prove to be CHANDRESH and DANDILION, though one of the rank outsiders (according to the trade press) make some appeal, namely GIVE US A BELLE who has finished ‘in the three’ 17/34 times at the track, winning on six occasions.  Eighteen assignments have passed since his last victory twelve months ago, though the Kheleyf gelding now races off a ten pound lower mark than when landing that victory, whilst he was only beaten four lengths the other day despite finished seventh of ten.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions in as many years, statistics which include three winners.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/6--Emerald Bay

6/33--Give Us A Belle

1/7--Pull The Pin

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wolverhampton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

 

5 runners—Mickael Appleby (4/58 – loss of 34 points)

3—Robert Cowell (2/16 – loss of 7 points)

3—Mark Johnston (4/46 – loss of 13 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (2/11 – loss of 4 points)

2—Clive Cox (0/8)

2—Christine Dunnett (0/1)

2—Mick Easterby (3/13 – level profit/loss)

2—David Evans (8/78 – loss of 34 points)

2—Steph Hollinshead (0/7)

2—Gay Kelleway (1/17 – Profit of 17 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (2/11 – loss of 4 points)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/9)

2—John O’Shea (1/25 – loss of 17 points)

2—Lynn Sydall (0/8)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £55.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Plumpton: £28.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday February 12

EXETER – FEBRUARY 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,080.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Exeter: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Fly Camp), 2 (Misterton) & 3 (Mr Clarkson)

Leg 2 (2.20): 1 (Finian’s Oscar) & 3 (Whatmore)

Leg 3 (2.50): 4 (Ballymalin), 14 (Eamon An Cnoic) & 2 (Barney Dwan)

Leg 4 (3.20): 4 (Harry Topper), 8 (Whats Happening) & 11 (Shotavodka)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Tea For Two) & 1 (Alary)

Leg 6 (4.20): 4 (Gala Ball), 1 (Charmix) & 6 (Minella Charmer)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: First and foremost I must offer apologies for the delayed brief analysis today due to illness.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that this is a typical Exeter novice hurdle event which includes plenty of horses with decent careers in the making.  Leading the way this time around are FLY CAMP, MISTERTON and MR CLARKSON.  Harry Fry (MISTERTON) comes into the race on a hat trick, though his six-year-old has serious rivals to overcome.  That said, six-year-olds have won five of the last nine contests.

Favourite factor: Four renewals have passed without a winner favourites being recorded since back to back marlet leaders obliged in 2010/11.

Record the course winner in the opening race:

2/2—Mr Clarkson (2 x soft)

 

2.20: Five-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, with the penultimate stage entry FINIAN’S OSCAR having scared off most of the rivals which might have extended Colin Tizzard’s rising star.  WHATMORE is expected to chase home the favourite, albeit at a distance which is difficult to predict.  My guess; eight lengths!

Favourite factor: Market leaders have claimed five of the last seven renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner scored at 9/2.

 

2.50: The most open race on the card by a country mile from my viewpoint and if you make it through this leg, you might well land the Placepot dividend I’ll wager.  My trio against the field consists of BALLYMALIN, EAMON AN CNOIC and BARNEY DWAN.  One of the other points to raise in the return to the track of Red Sherlock after a break of three years.  David Pipe’s representative was a horse of immense potential and it would be good to witness the eight-year-old getting safely round whilst showing some of his old ability.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished out with the washing thus far in a race which witnessed Uknowhatimeanharry winning off an official mark of 138. Harry Fry’s raider having won at Cheltenham recently 29 pounds higher in the weights!

Record the course winner in the third on the card:

2/5—Fingal Bay (2 x heavy)

 

3.20: Another in the series of the popular races for veterans for steeplechasers hoping to extend their successful careers, albeit at a lower level than once was the case.  Dual course and distance winner HARRY TOPPER is my idea of the value for money each way call in the contest, whilst also suggesting that WHATS HAPPENING and SHOTAVODKA should give investors a decent run for their respective connections.

Favourite factor: Both favourite have prevailed thus far.

Record the course winner in the fourth event:

2/2—Harry Topper (good to soft & heavy)

2/3—Masters Hill (2 x good to soft)

2/5—Theatrical Star (good & heavy)

1/4—As De Fer (heavy)

 

3.50: Eight and nine-year-olds have (equally) secured four of the five renewals between them, stats which go against ALARY, though Colin Tizzard’s raider appears to be the main threat to TEA FOR TWO.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/2) gold medallist.  That said, two of the beaten favourites perished in ‘win only’ events.

Record the course winner in the penultimate leg:

1/2—Carraig Mor (good to soft)

2/2—Tea For Two (good & heavy)

 

4.20: GALA MIX looks to have a decent chance though I must report that trainer Philip Hobbs was responsible for three beaten favourites on the corresponding card last year.  CHARMIX and MINELLA CHARMER are the potential jokers in the pack this time around.

Favourite factor: Twwo of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner) in the Placepot finale to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Sunday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

9 runners—David Pipe (3/23 – loss of 13 points)

4—Harry Fry (6/15 – Profit of 13 points)

4—Tom George (1/9 – Profit of 2 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (4/27 – loss of 17 points)

4—Alan King (3/10 – Profit of 5 points)

4—Colin Tizzard (3/16 – loss of 4 points)

3—Peter Bowen (0/6)

3—Nigel Hawke (1/9 – loss of 5 points)

3—Fergal O’Brien (1/4 – loss of 1 point)

2—Kim Baily (0/7)

2—Nigel Henderson (1/5 – Profit of 6 points)

2—Neil Mulholland (0/8)

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/5 (Profit of 4 points)

2—Evan Williams (3/5 – Profit of 10 points)

2—Nick Williams (0/4)

2—Richard Woolacott (0/12)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

76 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

There is no history relating to the meeting at Sedgefield

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday February 11

NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £601.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 5 (Dead Right) & 1 (High Bridge)

Leg 2 (1.50): 7 (Red Hanrahan), 4 (Tobefair) & 2 (Morello Royale)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Native River), 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 3 (Le Mercurey)

Leg 4 (3.00): 2 (Altior) & 5 (Traffic Fluide)

Leg 5 (3.35): 11 (Ballyandy), 10 (Movewiththetimes), 13 (Song Light) & 7 (William H Bonney)

Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Final Nudge), 4 (Vinnie Red) & 2 (Vieux Lille)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: Neil Mulholland had saddled more winners this week (Monday onward) before Friday’s sport was contested than any other handler (under either code) and in receipt of ten pounds form HIGH BRIDGE, connections will be hoping that DEAD RIGHT can take full advantage of the concession.  AZZERTI is preferred to Multiculture of the others, believing that the ground will not be soft/heavy enough to give Richard Johnson’s mount a winning chance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 13 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won four of the last seven contests.  Nine of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/1—High Bridge (good to soft)

 
1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured six of the last thirteen contests though that said, six-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals. The lone six-year-old RED HANRAHAN is expected to figure prominently at the very least, whilst two of the trio of three-year-olds might offer most resistance close home, namely TOBEFAIR and MORELLO ROYALE.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last eighteen years.  12 of the 18 favourites have reached the frame.

 
2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the fifteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts.  Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti.  LE MERCUREY is the stable representative on this occasion.  Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008, though the vintage is not represented on this occasion.  NATIVE RIVER is the other seven-year-old in the ‘win only’ field (alongside LE MERCUREY), with BRISTOL DE MAI completing the field.  Official figures suggest that Paul’s raider is under the cosh here to land a blow but then again, three runner races have become infamous down the year in terms of the ‘frequency’ of outsiders winning the day.  Course and distance winner NATIVE RIVER is one of the few horses (five in total on the Placepot card) to have won before here at Newbury which might just tilt the balance in his favour.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 15 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

2/3—Native River (2 x good to soft)

 
3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is Dodging Bullets, though the ex-Champion Chaser is a shadow of his former self it seems, not (respectfully) that he was one of best winners of the two mile championship down the years by any means.  More likely winners here include ALTIOR and TRAFFIC FLUIDE.  The latter named raider would make ALTIOR pull out all the stops if returning to the track in top form after a year off the track.  Fox Norton more than deserves his place in the line-up, though trying to concede five pounds to ALTIOR and ten to TRAFFIC FLUIDE looks to be something of a tough ask.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last seventeen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. Fifteen of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame.

 
3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) three years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now!  I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later.  47 of the last 56 horses to have claimed toteplacepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 12 of the last 14 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last seventeen gold medallists, though Nicky as without a runner last year. Gary Moore has snared three of the last nine renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 5-4 via the last nine contests.  No five-year-olds (fitting the weight trend) are included this year whilst Gary Moore is also on the missing list, the stats being left in the mix for your records.  Taking all the facts and stats into consideration, my ‘short list’ comprises of BALLYANDY, MOVEWITHTHETIMES, SONG LIGHT and WILLIAM H BONNEY. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst ten of the last eighteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:

1/2—Wait For Me (soft)

1/1—Ballyandy (heavy)

1/4—Gassin Golf (good to soft)

 
4.10: I note that FINAL NUDGE is given a 5/1 quote via the overnight trade press staff, odds which I believe would be a fair bit shorter if the eight-year-old has been trained by a ‘stronger name’, rather than the underrated handler David Dennis.  Whatever his price, FINAL NUDGE demands to be included in the mix here, arguably alongside VINNIE RED and VIEUX LILLE
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

 

8 runners—Paul Nicholls (1/18 – loss of 14 points)

4—Nicky Henderson (6/30 – loss of 9 points)

3—Warren Greatrex (2/11 – slight loss)

3—Philip Hobbs (4/16 – Profit of 45 points)

3—Alan King (5/16 – Profit of 5 points)

3—Kerry Lee (0/2)

3—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 2 points)

3—Colin Tizzard (4/13 – Profit of 8 points)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/11)

2—Gary Moore (0/13)

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/2 – level profit/loss)

+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Warwick: £909.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £270.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £212.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

The meeting at Uttoxeter was abandoned