Race of the Day – 22 Aug

Race of the Day - 16:15 Kempton

The Shortlist is available to all registered users on a Tuesday, and it highlights Finelcity's suitability to today's conditions nicely. He scores a decent looking 12, with four sections of green, and only the class of race being an unknown.

When looking at the racecard we can see that Finelcity is chasing a four-timer here today, however, it should be noted that this is his first run for over 300 days, so his fitness will have to be taken on trust.

From looking at his recent form (well, his last runs) it shows us that he has really taken to the artificial surface here at Kempton, and each of his last four runs we were it was riding on the slow side, as it is today. Although he also won over a mile, it looks as though his preferred distance is seven furlongs, winning twice and finishing second with his first try.

Due to those three wins in a row he has taken quite a hike in the weights and will be racing from a full 15 higher mark than for the first of those three wins.

Jockey Jim Crowley takes the ride again, and he has been in very good form recently. Over the past month, he's had 25 winners (20.66%) and 47 places (38.84%) from 121 runners, for level stakes profits of 26.91 and 4.75 respectively.

Early leaders here over this distance have a good record, with 16.61% of them going onto win the race, for a level stakes profit of 118.77.

Cape Icon and Finelcity are confirmed front-runners and it looks likely that the early lead will be contested by these two. There appears to be quite a bit of pace in the race which I think will suit Finelcity, given that he has seen out seven furlongs well in the past and has won over a mile.

There doesn't appear to be a huge draw bias here at Kempton over seven furlongs, however, those drawn low and towards the centre have a slight advantage over runners in the high numbers.

Finelcity is drawn in stall seven which looks perfect if he is able to break away nicely.

Finelcity has an extra four pounds to cope with and hasn't raced for over 300 days. But, if Harry Dunlop can have hit fit and firing after a break, I think there maybe a lot more to come from this four-year-old and looks a little overpriced at 15/2.

Click here for the 16:15 at Kempton.

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No Race of the Day – 14-18 Aug 2017

 

 

Race of the Day is on holiday for the week of 14th to 18th August.

Steve will be back next Monday, 21st August.

 

Race of the Day – 11 Aug

Race of the Day - 19:15 Haydock

Tom Dascombe and Richard Kingscote have an excellent record when teaming up together at Haydock, as we can see from the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report. Over the past year, they've had 17 winners (25.37%) and 29 places (43.28%) from 67 runners, for level stakes profits of 34.13 and 31.12 respectively. This is also showing an Impact Value of 2.29.

They have two runners together here today but it is the two-year-old Magnus that I am going to be concentrating on.

He is one of the most exposed horses in this line up having had seven runs already this year, however, it is interesting to note that his sole win came when the ground was soft. Any further rain on the course would, therefore, be a positive.

She has only run over seven furlongs once, but this Makfi is crying out for at least this distance in my opinion and on softer underfoot conditions I am hoping this will show her in a better light.

Expanding the trainer and jockey form on the race card highlights that they both have outstanding long-term records here at Haydock, with Dascombe not far off 100 points level stakes profit for the past five years.

Dascombe also does particularly well when sending his runners back out again, as with horses racing again within seven days, he has a strike rate of 8/37 (21.62%) for a level stakes profit of 19.50.

Early leaders here over this distance have a good record with over 20% of them going on to win the race.

I am hoping that Kingscote is able to get out quickly and dictate things from the front, where he will be able to test the stamina of some of these is the sticky conditions. If he is able to do that I am hopeful that she will be good enough for at least a place at a nice price of around 12/1.

Click here for the 19:15 at Haydock.

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Race of the Day – 10 Aug

Race of the Day - 17:00 Brighton

Pick A Little isn't getting any younger but racing at Brighton seems to bring the best out of him, as can be seen by looking at the Horses For Courses report. From 16 races here he's won four of them and been placed nine times, producing a profit to level stakes for both.

As we can see from his recent form he has been running averagely and nearer the frame on a couple of occasions. Now, this doesn't exactly inspire confidence, however, he has been sliding down the handicap as a result of this and is now on a very workable mark. He has also managed to get into a 0-60 handicap today which is a good drop in class than he has been running in.

Jockey Mitch Goodwin (sponsored by Geegeez) has a particularly good record here at Brighton as well. Over the last five years, he's had 6 winners (21.34%) and 14 places (50.00%) from 28 races, for level stakes profit of 10.83 and 12.64 respectively.

The Instant Expert report highlights that this is in fact quite a poor looking race, but Pick A Little is one of the few to emerge with any sort of credit as he has one section of green and two of amber. It is also interesting to note that he is now seven pounds lower than his last winning mark, so if he runs near to his best form, he could be very dangerous.

Early leaders here over this distance have a definite advantage with nearly 20% of them going on to win the race.

Pick A Little is usually a quick starter and looks one of most likely to be at the head of affairs through the first couple of furlongs. High drawn runners appear to have a distinct advantage and with him being drawn in stall ten, I would hope that Goodwin will be able to seize the opportunity to grab a prominent position.

Click here for the 17:00 at Brighton.

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Race of the Day – 9 Aug

Race of the Day - 20:35 Kempton

The Sire Snippets report shows Smart Strike appears to be extremely good at producing horses that go well on the all weather courses. From 54 runners to date, there have been 12 winners (22.22%) and 21 places (38.89%) for level stakes profits of 97.50 and 98.91 respectively. The Impact Value is also a very respectable 2.07

Banish is the only runner on the all weather today that have been sired by Smart Strike, and we'll take a closer look at him.

Banish is trained by Hugo Palmer and ridden by James Doyle, and if we take a look at the form of these two by clicking on their icons on the racecard, we can see that they both have good looking records here at Kempton for the past year.

Palmer's record with runners on the all weather tracks is over 3% higher than his overall record.

When looking at the Instant Expert report Banish comes out very well with four sections of green and one of amber. It is also worth noting that he has won from his current mark of 85 previously.

Arab Moon is another that looks really good here with five sections of green. He is also comfortably the highest on the Speed Ratings, so could pose quite a threat.

There isn't too much of a strong bias when looking at the Pace report, with prominent runners have the best record.

There doesn't actually appear to be loads of pace in this field, with a lot of the runners usually content to be prominent rather than actually making the running.

Banish took the early lead last time out before fading away in a much better race than this. It is tough to know what Doyle is going to do, however, being drawn in stall one isn't great and I would expect him to try and be as handy as possible without wasting too much energy to get there.

This is a drop in class from the recent races that Banish has been contesting and I am hoping that a return to conditions that have seen him win previously also see a return to his best form. If that is the case, then I think he is overpriced at the current 10/1.

Click here for the 20:35 at Kempton.

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Race of the Day – 8 Aug

Race of the Day - 19:50 Chelmsford

Saeed bin Suroor has a wonderful record with his runners first time out, and he looks to have yet another potential smart performer in Military Parade.

From 123 runners making their first start he's had 39 winners (31.71%) and 73 places (59.35%) for level stakes profits of 16.76 and 11.67 respectively. This has produced an Impact Value of 3.91, meaning he is almost four times more likely than average to have the winner.

There is a well fancied Sir Michael Stoute runner in this race which is keeping the price of Military Parade higher than I expected.

If we expand the trainer form when looking at the racecard (by clicking on the black trainer icon below the horse's name), we can see that as well as having a great record with first starters, Bin Suroor has a brilliant record here at Chelmsford. Over the past year, he's had 15 winners (60%) and 20 places (80%) from 25 runners, which have produced level stakes profits of 24.27 and 28.84 respectively. The Impact Value here is an incredible 5.46.

His overall record on the all weather tracks is over 7% better than his total average, and he has an almost one in three strike rate from 229 runners.

Josephine Gordon is an excellent jockey to have on board and she has been finding plenty of winners recently. Over the past couple of weeks, she's had four winners (13.33%) and 9 places (30.00%) from 30 runners, for level stakes profits of 8.25 and 4.57.

There is always plenty of guesswork involved when backing an unraced two-year-old, however, as the stats are firmly in our favour for Military Parade I am hoping for a big run

Click here for the 19:50 at Chelmsford

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Race of the Day – 7 Aug

Race of the Day - 18:45 Windsor

With a perfect score of 15, Ice Age is clearly really well suited by the conditions he is going to encounter today, and on the face of it, he is appealing and worth a closer look at a current price of around 8/1.

When expanding the trainer form on the race card, it shows us that Eve Johnson Houghton has been among the winners recently, with 4/24 (16.67%) over the past two weeks and showing a level stakes profits of 5.75.

Her overall turf form is actually incredibly impressive, as she shows a level stakes profit of 68.52 from a sample of 477 runners.

When looking at the Full Form filter we can see that Ice Age is an extremely consistent horse, managing to get at least a place in 12 out of 20 races. She has reasonably good form here at Windsor, including a win here over today's distance, and any further drying out of the ground will be to her liking.

He has been running in races that are a little bit higher in class than he encounters today, and if he can produce a performance that is right up there with his best, I think he is overpriced at 8/1.

Jockey Edward Greatrex takes over today (he has ridden him once before) and I am hoping that his three-pound claim will be enough to make the difference in what is a very open looking race.

The Instant Expert report shows that quite a few of the field is reasonably well suited to the conditions that will encounter here, but none look as good as Ice Age and this report really highlights his overall consistency.

It is interesting to note that he also has the second highest Speed Rating in the race, with a score of 85.

As I have mentioned on Race of the Day before, early pace plays a hugely important part here at Windsor, and there appears to be quite a lot of it in the lineup.

Ice Age is usually very quickly away and I think it is imperative to his chances of winning this that he gets away well and Greatrex is able to get to the front without burning up too much energy. He certainly has the speed to do this, and if he can make the bend in front then I would be confident of his chances.

Click here for the 18:45 at Windsor.

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Race of the Day – 4 Aug

Race of the Day - 16:40 Goodwood

When taking a look at the Trainer Snippets report, we can see that John Gosden has excellent figures under two different categories, and they are both applicable for the same horse.

He has a great record with last time out winners, being 67/234 (28.63%) for a level stakes profit of 22.20. His record with horses coming back from a break of 60+ days is even more impressive, where he is 69/242 (28.51%) for 39.50 points and an Impact Value of almost 3.0, meaning he is three times more likely than average to have the winner.

If we go to the race card and expand the trainer form there, it shows us that Gosden also has useful form here at Goodwood over the past year, winning with a third of his runners.

Eternally hasn't raced for over 300 days, but she looked a smart horse when last seen winning a Listed race at Ascot on good to soft going. She has only had the six races in her career to date, winning four of them and being placed in the other two, and I have a feeling there may be plenty more to come from her as a four year old.

She has won on a variety of underfoot conditions, from the all-weather at Wolverhampton, twice on good to firm and last time on good to soft. It was on the softer ground that I thought she looked most comfortable, and I am hoping she will be finishing strongly with her stamina proven over a mile.

Early leaders here over this distance has a good record, and based on previous runs it appears likely that James Doyle will ensure that Eternally is either the early leader, or at least very handy. I expect him to go off pretty quickly and make a proper test of stamina, where Eternally will hopefully be strongest inside the final furlong.

Click here for the 16:40 at Goodwood

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Race of the Day – 3 Aug

Race of the Day - 15:10 Stratford

Dan Skelton has an absolutely brilliant record with horses he has inherited from other stables, with a strike of almost one in three from 90 runners. This has produced an Impact Value of 3.50, meaning he is three and a half times more likely to win than average.

He has two such runners at Stratford today, and it's Raleagh Mountain that I am going to be concentrating on.

If we expand the trainer form when looking at the race card, we can see that Skelton has been finding plenty of winners recently, and has a strike rate of exactly one in three for the past 30 days, and an Impact Value of 3.06.

It is also worth noting that he has an above average record here at Stratford as well.

The general form of Raleagh Mountain isn't anything to get too excited about, but he appeared to appreciate the step up in trip last time out at Perth, and I am hoping the switch to chasing will see some improvement, which from his current mark, would make him very interesting.

There is a solid favourite in this race who is chasing a four timer, however, he is also making his chasing debut. Given the Skelton stats I have mentioned above, and the feather weight Raleagh Mountain has to carry around, I am hopeful if he can take to fences.

Click here for the 15:10 at Stratford.

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Race of the Day – 2 Aug

Race of the Day - 18:05 Redcar

Nonno Giulio has an apparent liking for racing at Redcar, as shown by the Horses For Courses report. Out of the seven races he's been involved in, he's won three of them (42.86%) for a level stakes profit of 10.25. He returns to Redcar today for the first time since his previous win, which makes him an interesting proposition and worth checking out in more detail.

The Full Form filter shows that he has slipped quite a long way down the handicap and is actually a full 13 pounds lower than when winning over course and distance (on very similar going) last November. He appears to be quite versatile ground wise, having won on good to soft and good to firm here at Redcar, and eight furlongs looks his preferred distance.

He has been lowered a further three pounds from his last race to a rating of 64, which leaves him on a very attractive mark. Another plus point is that he now qualifies to run in a 0-65 handicap that we have here today, therefore, if a return to Redcar sees him run to something close to his form at the back end of last year, he will have a few pounds in hand over a lot of his rivals.

The Instant Expert report highlights that this is actually a pretty terrible race, with very few of the 17 strong field showing any kind of form in these conditions. Nonno Giulio is comfortably the most noticeable with two sections of green and two of amber. It also shows that he is seven pounds lower than for his last victory, confirming his attractive looking mark.

For a field as large as this one, there doesn't appear to be a huge amount of pace in the race. Ellaal has the highest pace score based on the last four runs of each horse, and appears the most likely to be taking them along through the early stages of the race.

Nonno Giulio is drawn in the centre in stall eight and he needs to be prominent to be seen in best effect. From this draw I would be hopeful that he will be able to get a position just in behind the first few, and from there be able to strike inside the final few furlongs.

I think Nonno Giulio is a big price in what is quite frankly a dreadful looking race. With his record at the course and liking for today's underfoot conditions, there is some value in the 20/1 that is currently available.

Click here for the 18:05 at Redcar.

 

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Race of the Day – 1 Aug

Race of the Day - 17:15 Goodwood

When looking at the Trainer Snippets report we can see that David Simcock has an impressive record with Last Time Out winners, having a strike rate of a little better than one in four. This has produced a level stakes profit of 26.17 from 145 runners, and an Impact Value of 1.37. He runs Soul Silver at Goodwood today, and she is worth a closer look.

If we take a look at her most recent form we can see that her best performances have been when there has been some cut in the ground, or in the case of her run on the all-weather, when that has been riding slower than standard. She was a good winner over a mile at Newbury last time out in a handicap that was slightly better (on paper) than this one. She was never involved in a Listed race at Sandown on much firmer ground and prior to that she stayed on very strongly but couldn't trouble the leaders in another Listed race at Newbury.

This is a class below some of the races she has been competing in, and although she has been raised four pounds for her latest victory, I don't think that will inconvenience her too much.

 

Early leaders, or those that race prominently, appear to have a distinct advantage over this distance, as it can be quite tough to come from behind at times here at Goodwood.

Lincoln Rocks and Darkroom Angel are confirmed front runners, and being drawn in stalls one and three, it looks as though the early pace will be among the low numbers. In fact, the next highest pace scores are for Ghadaayer and Shenanigans, who are drawn five and two, so all of the apparent early pace is on the low side of the draw.

Soul Silver it at her most dangerous when she rides up with the pace, as if she is behind early she struggles to get into the race. Being drawn in stall four will hopefully help her in this respect, as she is on the side where all of the likely early pace will be. If she can follow them through the first few furlongs and get a useful position, then I am hopeful that Oisin Murphy with be able to strike inside the final quarter of a mile.

For a horse that seems suited to today's conditions, and has form at this level, I think Soul Silver is overpriced at 11/1. Added to that is her trainers extremely good record with last time out winners, I am hopeful that she will provide a good run for our money.

Click here for the 17:17 at Goodwood.

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Race of the Day – 31 Jul

Race of the Day - 20:30 Wolverhampton

Excel Again makes it onto The Shortlist with a useful score of 9, having three sections of green. This Exceed And Excel cost hasn't raced here at Wolverhampton previously, however, he has twice won on the all weather at Newcastle so I am not expecting any problems with this surface.

He has also never raced over this distance before. He was a nice winner last time out over a mile and was staying on strongly at the finish, so the extra furlong in this may actually bring out further improvement in this decent looking three-year-old.

If we take a look at the Full Form filter we can see that all of his five runs to date have been over a mile. If you hover the cursor over the race outcome for each race, it will give you a short description of how he ran. In four out of these five races, he was finishing strongly, adding further weight to the extra distance here today being a positive.

He has been extremely consistent, winning twice and being placed in four out of his five runs, so although he has been raised six pounds for his recent win at Newcastle, there looks plenty more to come from him and I don't think the extra weight will pose too many problems.

The Instant Expert report highlights how well Excel Again is suited by today's conditions, and it also shows that the rest of the field isn't. There are a few sporadic sections of green for the rest of them, but not too much to get excited about.

It is interesting to note, that like Excel Again, quite a few of the field are a few pounds higher than for their last victory.

A lot of this field like to race prominently, but there doesn't appear to be any out and out front runner in the race, so it is tricky to tell exactly where the pace is going to come from.

Count Montecristo looks the most likely as he has the highest pace score based on the last four races of each horse, and I am hoping he sets quite a decent pace as this will play into the hands of Excel Again, with his stamina in the finish likely to play a big part.

Excel Again looks a very solid option at around 7/2, as I am sure the step up in trip will see him in an even better light, and I think he will have too much class for his rivals.

Click here for the 20:30 at Wolverhampton

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Race of the Day – 28 Jul

Race of the Day - 16:15 Uttoxeter

Jennie Candlish has a super record with Last Time Out Winners, as shown here by the Trainer Snippets report. She has a strike rate of better than one in four and gets these runners placed over 62% of the time, both returning very nice level stakes profits.

The Impact Value for these runners is 1.41, meaning that she is nearly one and a half times more likely than average to have the winner.

When looking at the race card and expanding the trainer form, we can see that her record with Last Time Out winners is nearly twice that of her overall record.

Her runner here today is Bridane Rebel, and she is making her handicap debut in what looks a wide open race, even though there are just the five runners.

A look at the Full Form filter shows that Bridane Rebel has only had the four runs under rules to date, with the victory last time out being here only one. She takes quite a step up in distance today (from two to two and a half miles), however, when looking at her breeding this offer some encouragement.

I am hoping that the victory here at Uttoxeter has seen her learn plenty, and the more positive ride from David Noonan will be repeated with Sean Quinlan back on board today.

The Instant Expert report shows that Bridane Rebel is fairly well suited to today's conditions, albeit from a limited amount of runs. She is the only runner in this to have raced around Uttoxeter, something which could work in her favour.

The Dan Skelton trained Miss Spent is the only other runner that looks well suited to today's race, and it should be noted that Skelton has an excellent record with horses he inherits from other stables.

This is an extremely trappy race in which my liking of Bridane Rebel is based mainly on the respective trainer form and her liking for the course.

Click here for the 16:15 at Uttoxeter.

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Race of the Day – 27 Jul

Race of the Day - 15:50 Yarmouth

Chris Dwyer and Silvestre De Sousa is not an obvious combination, but they do team up quite regularly and really appear to excel at Yarmouth. They have a brilliant record there together over the past year, winning almost a third of their races and being placed in over half. This is lead to an Impact Value of 2.41, which is extremely promising.

They have two runners together here today, and it is Erissimus Maximus that I am going to focus on.

If we take a look at the race card and drill down into both the trainer and jockey form, we can see the good course form over the last year that we have already mentioned.

Another couple of snippets to note for Dwyer are that an above average record with his horses in handicaps, and an almost identical strike rate with sprinters. This is a five-furlong sprint handicap and therefore fits the bill nicely.

The Instant Expert report (which, incidentally is free to all registered users for every race on a Thursday) shows that Erissimus Maximus is well suited by today's conditions and looks to have plenty in place to encourage a big run. It should be noted, however, that he is ten pounds higher than for his last victory, and will, therefore, need to produce a decent run his he is going to take this. He has won over five furlongs from a mark of 76 (which is just three pounds lower than today) on the all weather surface at Southwell, which hopefully proves he has it in him.

Early leaders here over this distance have a predictably good record, with 23.45% of them winning the race for a level stakes profit of 25.54.

A lot of the runners in this race have lead or been very handy in at least one of their last four races, therefore, it is tricky to determine how this one is going to play out.

Erissimus Maximus has a mixed bag when trying to determine his running style, however, he has been prominent through the race in each of his three career runs to date. Therefore, I expect De Sousa to try and get away from the stalls swiftly and be right up with the pace early on.

Even though there are just the six runners in the field, four of them are closely matched and it appears an open race. Erissimus Maximus is a confident choice at 11/4, given the strong trainer and jockey partnership and his liking for today's conditions.

Click here for the 15:50 at Yarmouth

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Race of the Day – 26 Jul

Race of the Day - 16:50 Lingfield

The Trainer Snippets report shows that John Butler has a particularly good record with his runners when they are coming back from a break (60+ days). He has a one in six strike rate with an Impact Value of 1.74, meaning he is not far off twice as likely to get a winner as average. He is showing huge level stakes profits, however, this is uplifted by a massive 80/1 winner at Chelmsford last winter. If we strip that winner out of the results, it is still a healthy P/L and Red Invader warrants a closer look.

If we drill down into Butler's overall form, we can see that it looks great (bearing in mind for 80/1 winner). His recent form is useful with five winners over the past month and he has an encouraging record here at Lingfield for the past year. From the 37 runners he's sent here, he's had eight winners (21.62%) and ten places (27.03%) for level stakes profits of 32.25 and 20.42 respectively.

From the race card we can see that Red Invader's recent form is very up and down, however, when he gets favourable conditions he usually runs well. Last time out he was tried on the turf at Beverley and put in a miserable performance, but prior to that he won with a bit in hand over course and distance. He is now four pounds higher than for that win, but is far better off at the weights than with Roy's Legacy who was second that day.

As this is a five furlong dash the Speed Ratings are of particular significance (see the Geegeez forum thread Max Rating, Min Trip), and Red Invader comes out on top with a mark of 62.

Early leaders over this distance have an excellent record, with over 27% of them winning for a level stakes profit of 488.30.

The tricky aspect of this race is that there doesn't appear to be a real front runner, which could lead to a falsely run race. Red Invader is not a very fast starter so a lack of early pace would not be a bad thing for him, and he is certain to be staying on as strongly as anything in the field given he has raced plenty of times over six furlongs.

 

The draw doesn't show a huge bias, although it appears to be a slight advantage to be towards the centre, but with a reasonably small field it is not something I will be paying too much attention to.

This is quite a poor race which won't take a lot of winning, and I think the price of 8/1 on Red Invader is based on his overall form rather than his form over course and distance. Added to this is the form of his trainer, especially with horses coming off a break, so I think this is a value play.

Click here for the 16:50 at Lingfield.

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