Race of the Day – 27 Apr

Race of the Day - 17:20 Perth

This is quite a nice looking handicap hurdle at Perth, being run over two and a half miles, for those rated 0-120.

Druid's Folly is at the top of the handicap, and he is trained by Fergal O'Brien and ridden by Paddy Brennan. This pair have a great record here at Perth, as over the last five years they've had 10 winners (32.36%) and 13 places (41.94%) from 31 runners, for level stakes profits of 25.13 and 22.88 respectively. Druid's Folly has been running very consistently having won twice out of his last five races, and if he can prove as effective on today's good ground, then he could be a major player.

Stick To The Plan has had just the three races so far, but looks an interesting proposition now he has qualified for a handicap mark. His trainer, Dan Skelton, has been finding plenty of winners recently and over the past 30 days he's 24/105 (22.86%) for 11.86 points.

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In a field where there aren't too many sections of green (and a lot of red), Black Ivory really stands out. He has four sections of green and one of grey, due to not having run here at Perth before. This shows that he is very well suited by the conditions here today, and if he is nice and fit after a four month break, he looks to have a very good chance. He is seven pounds higher than for his last win, however last time out under the same weight he was going very well before blundering badly through the penultimate hurdle, which ruined any chance he had of winning.

Buckled is one of the longer priced runners at 14/1, but he does have one section of green to go with another three sections of amber, and is the only horse in the race to have won here at Perth.

The Pace report shows us that prominent runners have the best record here over this distance, with a little under 15% of them winning.

There are no real confirmed front runners in this field, although Starplex and Black Ivory are normally towards the front of the race, and these two have the best pace score. The rest of the field are usually content to sit in behind, so it will be interesting to see if the two of them can get a bit of a lead early on, and if so, they may prove tough to peg back.

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Race of the Day – 26 Apr

Race of the Day - 15:25 Catterick

This is a one and a half mile handicap for horses rated from 0-75, with the going at Catterick good to firm.

Star Glitter is the current favourite, and this Sea The Stars gelding is making his handicap debut today. He is trained by David O'Meara who has a particularly good record with handicap debutants, and after three average runs as a three year old, the fact he is favourite, shows that they hold him in high regard.

The eight year old, Up Ten Down Two, is chasing a hat trick here today after two wins on the all weather surface at Newcastle. He is yet to win on turf, but is clearly in good form and is trained by Mick Easterby, who's had plenty of winners recently. Over the past 30 days he is 14/56 (25%) for a level stakes profit of 17.44.

When looking at the Instant Expert report on the place setting, Serenity Now looks very good, with a full line of green. He is clearly well suited to today's race conditions, however it should be noted that he is eight pounds higher than for his last win. Therefore, although he looks to have a good chance of claiming a place, he will need to pull out all the stops to win the race.

Early leaders here have a useful record over this distance, with over 13% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 11.98.

Midnight Warrior is usually quite a prominent runner and he has the highest score when looking at the Pace report. He doesn't necessarily have the best draw, however as a lot of the other runners are usually quite content to sit in behind the lead, I think he will be able to take them along if he wants to.

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Richard Fahey has an excellent record here at Catterick over the past year. He's had 11 winners (25%) and 20 places (45.45%) from 44 runners for level stakes profits of 25.99 and 22.24 respectively. He runs Monaco Rose in this, and she has been running consistently without getting her head in front. It is interesting to note that she hasn't raced at Catterick previously, so it may be that Fahey is bringing her to a course he does well at to see if that will have the desired effect.

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Race of the Day – 25 Apr

Race of the Day - 14:45 Yarmouth

We go to Yarmouth for today's Race of the Day, and a ten furlong handicap for those rated 0-85.

Theydon Grey is the current favourite at around 6/4, and he is trained by William Haggas. Haggas has been among the winners recently, and he has a very good record here at Yarmouth. Over the past five he's had 34 winners (31.19%) and 54 places (49.54%) for level stakes profits of 14.58 and 5.59 respectively. This is the first time he has raced Theydon Grey (as can be seen by the letters 'TC' (Trainer Change), next to the horses name, and he has a decent record with horses he inherits from other yards.

Silvestre De Sousa rides one of the outsiders, The Gay Cavalier, and he has done very well at Yarmouth over the last year, being placed in half of his races.

Bertie Moon is the big outsider of the field, trading at 50/1 in places, however he has managed to make The Shortlist (which is free to all users on a Tuesday). He has three sections and green and one of amber, giving him a score of nine, which shows that he is nicely suited by today's racing conditions. He has been tried at much longer trips in his most recent races, so it is really interesting to see him revert to a trip where he has won three times.

The Instant Expert highlights the good showing of Bertie Moon, and also shows us that he is just the one pound higher than for his last win, therefore definitely looks overpriced.

Wapping has two sections of green and one of amber, so is another that looks reasonably well suited by this race.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have an excellent record, with 18.30% of them going on to take the victory, for a level stakes profit of 56.96.

Bertie Moon and Celebration Day are confirmed front runners, and look the most likely to be taking them along early doors.

The two runners at the head of the betting, Theydon Grey and Wapping, are both definite hold up horses and will look to come late from what it likely to be a strong pace.

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Race of the Day – 24 Apr

Race of the Day - 17:20 Kempton

This is a two mile handicap on the all weather surface at Kempton, and although there are just the seven runners, it looks a competitive race.

Chelsea's Boy is having his first run for Rarlph Beckett today (as can be seen by the 'TC' next to the horses name), and he has a very good record with horses he has inherited from other yards. If you click on the 'TC' it will show you his record in detail. Over the past five years he's had five winners (18.52%) and 12 places (44.44%) from 27 runners, for level stakes profits of 30.00 and 32.90 respectively.

Beckett also has a useful form here at Kempton, and with his staying runners. All of this can be seen by clicking on the black trainer icon below the horses name.

When looking at the Instant Expert tab, it is Sgt Reckless who immediately stands out, as he has a full line of green. He has won half of his 12 races over this distance, and is also very at home here at Kempton. Interestingly, he is also at the top of the Speed Ratings, so he looks to be in with a good chance of taking this.

King Calypso is one of the longer priced runners in the field, but he has won three from nine attempts at the course. It should be noted that he is a full 11 pounds higher than for his last victory, therefore it is likely he will need to produce something special to win this.

Even though this is near the longer end of the flat distance races, the Pace report shows us that early leaders do have a very good record. 14.52% of early leaders have gone on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 57.76.

Although Chelsea's Boy was held up last time out, he is usually quite prominent and has the highest pace score in this field. When he has raced over 14 furlongs, he has been right up with the pace, and I expect him to do the same here today. The rest of the field are usually happy to sit in behind, with Sgt Reckless being a definite hold up horse.

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Race of the Day – 21 Apr

Race of the Day - 18:00 Bath

This is a fillies and mares five furlong dash, and it's a good quality Listed race.

Ostatnia is a mile clear on the Speed Ratings with a mark of 119. The next closest are Blithe Spirit and Imtiyaaz on 97. Ostatnia has been running consistently, but hasn't managed to get her head in front since last August, which was on soft going at Tipperary. She has won on good to firm previously however, so looks quite versatile ground wise.

There aren't too many sections of green when looking at the Instant Expert report, but Belledesert does have three sections. She hasn't however won over this distance, or on her one start in this class of race. She is also five pounds higher than for her last victory, so would appear to need a very special performance to figure here today.

Imtiyaaz has two sections of green, including being one from one here at Bath.

From the Pace report we can see that early leaders here have a very good record, with almost a quarter of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 90.56. This is a really strong bias, as could reasonably be expected for the minimum trip, and means it pays to concentrate on the likely early leaders.

Priceless is very often towards the head of affairs, and she has the highest pace score based on the last four races of each runner. She is drawn in stall 11, so not right on the extremities, and if she gets away well then I think she may prove hard to peg back.

Horses For Courses is the report that is free to all users on a Friday, and it shows what an excellent record Belledesert has when running here at Bath. She has three winners (60%) and four places (80%) for level stakes profits of 20.50 and 28.60.

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Race of the Day – 20 Apr

Race of the Day - 14:25 Newmarket

This is a top quality handicap over seven furlongs, and any one of the seven runners could take this.

John Gosden and Frankie Dettori have had a good week at Newmarket so far, and they team up with Castle Harbour here. They have an excellent record together at Newmarket over the last five years, with 24 winners (31.17%) and 41 places (53.25%) for level stakes profits of 22.06 and 18.27 points respectively. Castle Harbour is also top of the Speed Ratings, with a mark of 100.

The Instant Expert report is free to all users for every race on a Thursday, and Salateen stands out with a lovely full line of green, over quite a good sample of races. He has won one out of two races here at Newmarket, and seven furlongs definitely appears to be his optimum trip. He is five pounds higher than for his last victory on turf, but won a Listed race on the all weather from a mark of 104, so I think he will cope fine with his current mark.

Tabarrak has four sections of green on this report, with just the section for the course being red. He did finish second with these two runs however, and if anything, I think it will be the eight pound rise in the weights and almost a year off the course, that stop him from winning this.

The Pace report shows that leaders at Newmarket over this distance have a very good record, with almost 17% of them going on to win, for a level stakes profit of 115.35.

Salateen looks certain to be taken straight to the front by Ryan Moore, and he will look to set a decent pace and try to make all.

Tabarrak has also been very quickly away in his last two races, so may dispute the lead with Salateen, which could mean the pace is very fast.

The Draw report shows that high drawn numbers are generally the least productive with this field size, although a third of them have gone on to be placed.

Horses drawn towards the centre have the best record, and with Salateen drawn in stall four, the race is likely to revolve around the field following him and trying to pass in the final couple of furlongs.

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Race of the Day – 19 Apr

Race of the Day - 14:25 Newmarket

There are eight runners in this seven furlong listed handicap, and a lot of the big trainers are represented, in what looks like a very competitive race.

Sir Dancealot is the current favourite at 7/2, and he is trained by David Elsworth. He won three of his five races as a two year old, and appeared to find a mile too far when upped to Group one company in the Racing Post trophy. The drop back down to seven furlongs look sure to suit him, and a big run is clearly expected.

As mentioned yesterday, John Gosden has an excellent record here at Newmarket, and he runs Seven Heavens in this. This Frankel colt is easily the highest on the Speed Ratings, and he looked a potential star in the making when winning his first two races, before destroying his own chances in the Dewhurst by being far too keen. It will be fascinating to see how much he has 'come on' over the winter.

As this is a three year old race early in the season, I wouldn't expect there to be huge amount of green sections on the Instant Expert report, however Rodaini does have four sections of green, showing his suitability to today's racing conditions. He has three wins from three races over today's distance and on the going, so he is definitely one to be taken seriously.

From looking at the pace tab we can see that leaders here over this distance have a very useful record, with 16.69% of them winning their race, for a level stakes profit of 107.85. Prominent runners are comfortably next best, therefore it appears a definite advantage to have plenty of early speed.

The filly, Miss Infinity, has the highest pace score and is a definite front runner, who along with Private Matter look the most likely to be at the head of affairs through the first furlong or so.

The Trainer Statistics report is the free report to all users on a Wednesday, and when put to the 'Course 5 Year Form' setting, it shows us what a great record Mark Johnston has here at Newmarket. For the past five years, he's had 75 winners (15.43%) from 486 runners, for a level stakes profit of 74.63. He runs Miss Infinity here today, and if she is allowed to dictate things at the front today, I think she has a decent chance of a place.

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Race of the Day – 18 Apr

Race of the Day - 16:05 Newmarket

This is a nice looking three year old Listed race over nine furlongs, with some decent looking prospects taking each other on.

Ryan Moore rides Salouen, the current favourite, for the first time. This Canford Cliffs colt was placed in a couple of Group 1's as a two year old, and looks sure to be popular here today. Moore has been among the winners at the start of this season, with 13 winners (30.23%) from 43 runners for a level stakes profit of 9.70 points.

John Gosden, who runs Khalidi here, has an excellent long term record at Newmarket. Over the past five years he's had 97 winners (19.32%) from 502 runners, for a level stakes profit of 46.45, therefore his runners here are always worth a second look.

The Shortlist is the report that is free to all users on a Tuesday, and Montataire shows up really well, with four sections of green and a score of 12. He hasn't raced over this distance before, however the way he has shaped over a mile, together with his breeding, suggests that nine furlongs shouldn't be a problem and I expect him to go well.

Law And Order is one of three runners that have two sections of green on the Instant Expert report, and he won a Listed race on the all weather at Lingfield over a mile recently. He does have to saddle a three pound penalty as a result of that win, so will probably need to improve again to take this. His race fitness will be guaranteed however, and he looks certain to appreciate the extra furlong here.

Leaders here over this distance have a very good record, with nearly 16% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 39.75.

Montataire is a confirmed front runner, and has easily the highest pace score in this field. I expect Joe Fanning to try and fly out of the stall and dictate the pace of the race, before trying to nick the race from a couple of furlongs out. They will be lining up behind to take a shot at him, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was able to hang on and win the race, at quite a nice price.

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Race of the Day – 17 Apr

Race of the Day - 12:30 Wolverhampton

This is a five furlong dash on the all weather at Wolverhampton, and with an evenly looking matched eight runners, this is a wide open race.

Bahango is the current favourite at around 9/4, and he has the claimer Lewis Edmunds on board, who has a very good record here at Wolverhampton. Over the past year he's had eight winners (29.63%) from 27 runners for a level stakes profit of 3.48 points. He has also had a couple of winners over the last few weeks too.

The Big Lad looks very good when looking the Instant Expert report, as he has three sections of green and one of amber. He hasn't raced here at Wolverhampton before, however he has recorded wins at Lingfield, Southwell and Kempton, so the assumption that he will handle the track here, is a fair one.

Come On Dave has slipped down the weights a little and is actually six pounds lower than for his last win. He has two sections of green and two of amber, so the conditions appear to be in has favour today, so a big run isn't out of the question.

As would be reasonably expected, leaders here over this distance have a decent record, with over 22% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 518.43.

There is no real confirmed front runner in this field, however both Come On Dave and Showmethewayavrilo have both been fairly prominent in the past and have the highest pace score based on the last four runs for each horse.

The Draw report shows that the higher drawn the runner is, the more disadvantaged they are, as there is a definite bias towards the lower drawn horses.

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Race of the Day – 14 Apr

Race of the Day - 14:10 Lingfield

The Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes has attracted a lovely looking field, which is to be expected with the prize money on offer, and this shapes up to be a cracking race.

Natural Scenery is one of two runners for Godolphin, and she is the current favourite at 9/2. Bin Suroor has been in decent form to start the season, with eight winners (47.06%) from 17 runners over the last 30 days for a level stakes profit of 4 points. Natural Scenery is chasing a hat trick here today, after winning twice at Newcastle earlier in the year, with the latter being over today's distance.

As can be expected for a race of this quality, there are a lot of green sections for a lot of the runners when looking at the Instant Expert report.

Natural Scenery has four sections of green, but the one that probably comes out best is Winterlude, with four sections of green and one of amber. He is one of the bigger priced runners at around 20/1, but he is well suited by today's conditions and looks set for a decent run.

Even though this is over the marathon distance, early leaders here do have a very good record, with 16.77% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 89.76.

There are several runners here who like to travel very handily, and it is likely to be a fierce contest for the early lead. Watersmeet, Pinzolo, John Reel and Steve Rogers are all genuine front runners, and it looks like they will set an extremely generous pace. This may well set it up for one of the others to sit in behind and pick them off when it really matters.

Horses For Courses is the free report for all users on a Friday, and it shows us today when a great record Petite Jack has when racing at Lingfield. He's won five out of his six races at this course for a level stakes profit of 45.51, which is incredible going. If he can handle the step up in trip, then he could well be a big player in this.

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Race of the Day – 13 Apr

Race of the Day - 16:10 Chelmsford

This is a competitive looking ten furlong handicap on the all weather at Chelmsford.

Estrella Eria is the current favoruite, and she is chasing a four timer, having won three times over course and distance last autumn. She is now 19 pounds higher than when she started on that run, but there is a chance she has improved over the winter, therefore if running well after a break, she can be right in the thick of things again.

Hannington is ridden by Silvestre De Sousa, who has a very good record here at Chelmsford. Over the past five years he's had 42 winners (23.86%) for a level stakes profit of 32.98.

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Estrella Eria has a lovely full line of green, highlighting how well suited she is by today's conditions.

No other runner has more than one section of green, although Hannington does also have three sections of amber, so has shown reasonable form in similar conditions.

The Pace report shows us that leaders here over this distance have a brilliant record. A little overt 26% of them have gone on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 95.90. With prominent runners being comfortably next best, there is a definite case for siding with runners that are usually quickly out of the stalls.

My Mo and Outlaw Torn look the most likely to be leading early on, as they have easily the highest pace scores, based on the last four races of each runner.

Lower drawn horses have a definite advantage based on the draw tab, and with My Mo and Outlaw Torn drawn in stalls five and three respectively, the early pace looks sure to be here.

This could be a big help to Estrella Eria, as she is drawn in between these two in stall four, so may be able to sit just in behind them and get a good tow into the race.

 

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Race of the Day – 12 Apr

Race of the Day - 17:10 Fontwell Park

This is a conditional jockeys' handicap hurdle over two miles and three furlongs, on good ground at Fontwell Park, in what is a very open looking race.

Neil Mulholland, who runs Cornish Warrior here today, has a very good record with his runners at Fontwell. Over the past five years he's had 29 winners (23.77%) from 122 runners for a level stakes profit of 10.96. You can see this detail by clicking the black trainer icon below the horses name.

Boston De La Roche is racing for Dan Skelton for the first time day, as can be seen by the blue letters TC, after the horses name. Skelton seems to do particularly well when inheriting horses from other yards, which can be seen by clicking on the 'TC'. Over the past five years he's had 41 winners (28.28%) and 77 places (53.10%) from 145 runners, for level stakes profits of 30.68 and 45.84 respectively. This is excellent going, and if he is able to get Boston De La Roche ready after a very long break, who could prove to be a big danger.

There aren't too many sections of green when looking at the Instant Expert tab, and in fact Cornish Warrior is the only runner in the field to have two.

Prouts Pub has won twice from five runs here at Fontwell, and is also eight pounds lower than for his last win. The drop back in distance should be in his favour and he could be a little over priced if returning to form.

Leaders here over this distance have a particularly good record, with almost 20% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 48.87.

There are no real confirmed front runners in this field meaning there is a chance of a falsely run race.

Clondaw Bisto has the highest pace score based on their last four runs, however he didn't lead any of those races early on.

Trainer Statistics is the report that is free to all users on a Wednesday, and here it shows what excellent form Ian Williams has been in over the last month. He's had 12 winners (26.67%) and 16 places (35.56%) from 45 runners for level stakes profits of 23.46 and 12.60 respectively. He runs Sunnytahliateigan here today.

 

 

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Race of the Day – 11 Apr

Race of the Day - 14:10 Pontefract

With the flat season kicking into gear, we head to Pontefract for Race of the Day, and a one mile handicap for those rated from 0-75.

House Of Commons is trained by Mick Appleby and ridden by Silvestre De Sousa, who has been in fine form of late. Over the past 30 days De Sousa has ridden 17 winners (23.94%) from 71 runners for a level stakes profit of 1.35.

Desert Ruler is trained by Jedd O'Keefe, who has a very impressive long term record here at Pontefract. Over the last five years he's had nine winners (17.65%) from 51 runners, for a level stakes profit of 15.75.

House Of Commons makes The Shortlist (which is freely available for all users on a Tuesday) for today, with four sections of green and a score of 12. He has never raced here at Pontefract before, but does look to be really well suited by today's racing conditions.

When looking at the Instant Expert report, we can see the green sections of House Of Commons really standing out. It is interesting to note that he is also six pounds lower than for his last victory, therefore if racing back over preferred conditions bring out the best in him, he could be overpriced at 8/1.

Auspicion also shows up reasonably well on this report, with three sections of green and one of amber. He is another who is lower than his last winning mark (one pound), so could also go well with favourable conditions.

Pontefract is a very good course for early leaders, and we can see this from looking at the Pace tab. Over 23% of horses that have led the race early on, have gone on to take the victory, for a level stakes profit of 68.52.

There are a few runners in this field who are usually away quickly, and it appears it is likely to be between Billy Roberts, Fine Example and Sherian for the early lead. Low drawn horses have an advantage here, therefore if Sherian (stall two) can get away quickly, he could find himself in a very good position.

 

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Race of the Day – 10 Apr

Race of the Day - 16:20 Redcar

This is a wide open handicap being raced over a mile, and it has some fairly useful horses in the field.

Character Onesie is joint top of the Speed Ratings, and has a trainer and jockey who both do well here at Redcar. Over the last year Richard Hannon has had 13 winners (18.06%) and 31 places (43.06%) for level stakes profits of 29.61 and 30.90 respectively. Jockey Paul Hanaghan doesn't ride here that often, but from his five rides over the last year, he has won three of them and that's yielded a level stakes profit of 10 points.

When looking at the Instant Expert report, it is clear that Heir To The Throne is very well suited by the conditions here today. He has four sections of green including being one from two at Redcar, and his only red section is for the size of the field. He is just the three pounds higher than for his last win, so looks to be in with a decent shout in this.

 

The Pace tab shows that it really doesn't matter a huge amount, what running style you have here over this distance, as it appears to have very little bearing on the outcome of the race.

What is clear, is that it is very likely that British Embassy and Bernie's Boy will be right at the front early on, and are likely to dictate the pace, as they are definite confirmed front runners.

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Race of the Day – 7 Apr

Race of the Day - 19:15 Kempton

This is a six furlong handicap for those rated from 0-75, over six furlongs on the all weather at Kempton.

Assertive Agent has been very consistent over her last five runs, with two wins and two second placed finishes. She is ridden by David Probert, who has been in really good form over the last month. He's had 8 winners (22.22%) and 15 places (41.67%) for level stakes profits of 12.80 and 11.31 respectively.

The Instant Expert report doesn't have a lot of green sections on it with this field, however, one of the outsiders shows up quite well. Nag's Wag is currently a 20/1 shot, and she has three sections of green and one of amber. She's won two out of her three races here at Kempton, and is just the one pound higher than for her last victory.

The Pace report shows us that early leaders here over this distance have a very good record, with 17.87% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 83.06.

Monarch Maid and Arize look certain to be leading the way from the stalls as they are definite confirmed front runners. They aren't drawn particularly close to each other and low numbers have a definite advantage over this distance, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Arize head the field through the first furlong or so, as she is drawn in stall two.

Horses For Courses is the report that is free to all users on a Friday.

Childesplay has a very useful record here at Kempton, with two wins and five places from her seven starts, for level stakes profits of 5.50 and 14.73. She looks a solid favourite, having been running in much better races than this, and her handicap mark has reached a very attractive level.

 

 

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