Race of the Day – 14 December 2017

Race of the Day - 19:15 Chelmsford

Calling Out makes it onto The Shortlist in a good looking one-mile handicap on the all-weather at Chelmsford. He has a score of nine, with three sections of green and one of amber, showing that he is well suited to conditions in this one.

When looking at the form on the racecard we can see that Calling Out was in good form at the start of the year, winning at Wolverhampton over nine furlongs and then finishing second at Lingfield. They were both conditions races, and prior to that, he was racing in Listed events. This is his first race in a handicap and it's no surprise to see him sharing top weight.

Trainer David Simcock has a useful long-term record here at Chelmsford. Over the past five years, he's had 28 winners (20.44%) and 59 places (43.07%) from 137 runners, for level stakes profits of 19.67 and 4.71 respectively, and an Impact Value of 1.75.

He also has a reasonable record with his horses having their first run in a handicap. He has a strike rate of 15.79% from 76 runners which have produced an Impact Value of 1.57.

The Instant Expert report confirms the excellent showing of Calling Out and it looks as though he should be fine to cope with the top weight.

The other top weight, Certificate, comes out the best on this report with four sections of green and one of amber.

Chelmsford is a tough course to come from behind on and the Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a good record, with 19.15% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 35.70 and an Impact value of 1.66.

London and Calling Out have the highest pace scores in this field and look the most likely to be leading. Low drawn runners have a definite advantage so with Calling Out in stall one, he has the chance to grab the lead and dictate things from the front.

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Race of the Day – 13 December 2017

Race of the Day - 15:00 Lingfield

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Archie Watson has a quite brilliant record with runners that are turned back out again within seven days of their last race. From his last 23 such runners, he's had 12 winners (52.17%) and 16 places (69.57%), for level stakes profits of 25.57 and 29.33 and an Impact Value of 3.72.

He runs attain in a ten-furlong handicap on the polytrack at Lingfield today, and he races seven days ago.

 

When looking at the recent form of Attain on the racecard we can see that he hasn't won for a while, although he did run well over 12 furlongs here in third place last time out, being beaten by just half a length. A repeat of that performance in a similar class race would surely see him go close again.

The Archie Watson yard has been among the winners recently, being 3/13 (23.08%) over the past 14 days for an Impact Value of 2.21. He also has a good record with his runners on the all-weather tracks, where his strike rate is almost three percent higher than his overall record. This has produced a small level stakes profit from 156 runners.

Jockey Edward Greatrex has a good long-term record here at Lingfield. Over the past five years, he's had 14 winners (15.56%) and 31 places (34.44%) from 90 runners, for level stakes profits of 70.00 and 70.93 and an Impact Value of 1.29.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 15.17% of them going on to win the race. This is slightly ahead of prominent runners, but both show a heavy level stakes loss, so the bias isn't particularly strong.

There doesn't appear to be a great deal of pace in this race and there is the possibility that it could be falsely run. Attain is usually quite prominent in his races and I wonder if Greatrex will force the issue if the race starts off slowly. He has proven stamina over further than ten furlongs and is unlikely to want it to come down to an all-out sprint after a slowly run mile or so.

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Race of the Day – 12 December 2017

Race of the Day - 15:15 Lingfield

The Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report shows that John Butler and James Keniry have an extremely good long-term record here at Lingfield. Over the past five years, they've had six winners (28.57%) and nine places (42.86%), for level stakes profits of 19.30 and 17.40. This has also produced an Impact Value of 2.38.

They team up together with Red Invader in a five-furlong dash here today.

The current form of Red Invader has been poor, finishing well down the field in his last four races. His last run on the polytrack here at Lingfield was back in July, when he was an easy winner from his current mark and with today's jockey on board. I am hoping that a return to a course he has won twice on so far this year and over his optimum distance will again bring out the best in him

The Trainer Snippets on the racecard show that Butler has a really good record here at Lingfield. Over the past year, he's had 11 winners and places (26.83%) for level stakes profits of 40.50 and 25.92 respectively, and an Impact Value of 2.29.

He has a good record overall on the all-weather courses and had a strike rate of almost 30% with his sprinters.

Liam Keniry has been riding well recently and has had four winners (26.67%) and six places (40%) from 15 runners over the past couple of weeks. These have yielded level stakes profits of 16.00 and 23.43 respectively, and an Impact Value of 2.56.

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The Instant Expert report has very few sections of green on it, but one of those does belong to Red Invader. He also has three sections of amber, showing he is reasonably well suited to conditions in this one. As mentioned earlier, this shows he is the same weight as for his last victory, so at a current price of 12/1 he looks a good each way option at least.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have an excellent record, with 27.18% of the going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 560.08 and an Impact Value of 1.91.

Red Invader is usually a hold up horse and it is likely that Keniry is going to have to pass the majority of the field if he is going to win this.

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Race of the Day – 11 December 2017

Race of the Day - 14:15 Fontwell

Mendip Express has made The Shortlist at Fontwell today, racing in a three miles and two furlongs handicap chase in what looks a small but competitive field.

He has an excellent score of 13, with four sections of green and one of amber. He looks really well suited to today's conditions and definitely worth a closer look.

When looking at the form from the racecard we can see that Mendip Express has been running well without quote being good enough to get his head in front. He has been running in some good quality hunter chases, and I am hoping that the return to a standard handicap chase may benefit him. His mark of 134 looks reasonable when compared with past exploits, and he has the claimer Maxwell on board again taking a useful seven pounds off.

The Phillip Hobbs yard hasn't been in amazing form recently, however, he does have an above average strike rate here at Fontwell. Over the past five years, he's had 13 winners (21.31%) which have produced an Impact Value of 1.61, meaning he is over one and a half times more likely than average to have the winner.

He also has quite a useful record with his runners that are coming off a break of 60 days plus, and Mendip Express is having his first race for 227 days.

The Instant Expert report confirms how well suited Mendip Express is by today's race, and it is also interesting to note that he is five pounds lower in the handicap that he was for his last victory.

The other runner in the race that comes out well on this report is Leo Luna, with three sections of green.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a great record, with 22.50% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 29.71 and an Impact Value of 1.49.

There are four quite prominent runners in this field, but Mendip Express has been the early leader in his last two races and I wouldn't be surprised to see Maxwell do the same again to try and control the race from the front.

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Race of the Day – 8 December 2017

Race of the Day - 15:15 Exeter

Horses For Courses is the report that is available to all users on a Friday, and it shows that You Say What appears to like racing at Exeter. He's had three winners (60%) and places from five races there, for level stakes profits of 15.25 and 17.11.

Today he runs a marathon handicap chase there, over almost three miles and seven furlongs.

You Say What appeared rejuvenated last time out when taking a similar standard contest to today's over three miles extremely comfortably. This is obviously a big step up in distance, but if he travels and jumps as well as he did in that victory here last time, then I think he can cope with, and the seven-pound rise in the weights he has been hit with.

Trainer David Pipe has been among the winners recently, and he also has a useful record when he moves his runners significantly in distance (Dist Move). From his last 82 such runners, he's had 12 winners (14.63%) for a level stakes profit of 10.76 and an Impact Value of 1.35.

When looking at the Instant Expert report we can see that there are others that look better suited to today's conditions than You Say What. He does have one section of green and one of amber, but as mentioned previously, he is untried at this distance and also in this field size.

The 40/1 outsider Barton Gift has an excellent record over this distance, and could potentially sneak into a place as others tire.

Early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 13.64% of them going on to win the race, for level stakes profits of 17.00. Mid-division runners are next best and have also produced a small level stakes profit.

Tom Scudamore is likely to keep You Say What in amongst the field, or even held up as last time, and slowly work his way into the race if he can settle into a nice rhythm again.

 

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Race of the Day – 7 December 2017

Race of the Day - 15:00 Market Rasen

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Olly Murphy has a particularly good record with his runners that are coming off a break of 60 days plus. From his last 30 such runners, he's managed to have nine winners (30%) and 16 places (53.33%) for level stakes profits of 16.96 and 17.06 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 3.19, meaning he is over three times more likely than average to have the winner.

He runs Varene De Vauzelle at Market Rasen in a two miles and seven-furlong handicap hurdle today, and this is his first run for 66 days.

Varene De Vauzelle was running consistently well before looking like something was amiss last time out at Stratford, where he finished completely tailed off. Prior to that, he has been placed three times in similar quality handicaps to today, and if he comes back from his break refreshed and back to normal, then I think he has a decent chance of being involved.

As well as having a good record with horses after a break, Murphy has a decent looking record here at Market Rasen. Over the past year, he's had three winners (42.86%) and four places (57.14%) from seven runners, for level stakes profits of 16.38 and 19.45 respectively, and an Impact Value of 3.16.

He also has a higher strike rate in handicaps when compared to his overall record.

The Instant Expert report on the 'Place' setting shows that Varene De Vauzelle is reasonably well suited to today's conditions, with one section of green and two of amber.

American Life is the only other runner with any green sections, therefore, it doesn't appear the rest of the field at that well suited.

The Pace report shows that although there isn't a string bias, early leaders and prominent runners have the best record here over this distance.

Varene De Vauzelle has been ridden predominantly as a hold-up horse, and I wonder if they will try different tactics on him today in a bid to try and break this winless streak.

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Race of the Day – 6 December 2017

Race of the Day - 12:10 Lingfield

The Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report shows that Hugo Palmer and Josephine Gordon have been in great form together over the past month, with five winners (29.41%) and ten places (58.82%) from 17 runners. This has yielded level stakes profits of 6.29 and 7.95 respectively and produced an Impact Value of 2.86.

They team up with just the one runner at Lingfield today, as Temeraire races in a nice looking seven-furlong fillies' handicap.

From the form on the racecard, we can see that Temeraire has had just the one run since switching to the Palmer yard from France, where she was an easy winner here over six furlongs a couple of weeks ago. She ran on really strongly that day so stepping up to seven furlongs looks like it will suit her, and a repeat of that performance from a mark of 76 will surely see her tough to beat.

The Hugo Palmer yard has been in good form recently, and he also had a useful record here at Lingfield. Over the last year, he's had eight winners (26.67%) and 14 places (46.67%) from 30 runners, for level stakes profits of 8.10 and 7.64 respectively and an Impact Value of 2.28.

He actually has a far higher win percentage on the all-weather courses than he does compared with his overall record and is showing a small level stakes profit from nearly 300 runners on the artificial surfaces.

There is very little to go on when looking at the Instant Expert report. However, Temeraire has two sections of green courtesy of her win here last time out, so it is encouraging to at least know she handles the track.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have an extremely good record, with 23.22% of them going on to win the race, for level a stakes profit of 275.91 and an Impact Value of 2.13.

Temeraire was quickly away last time out to take control of the race and make all, and it would be no surprise to see Josephine Gordon try and replicate James Doyle by doing exactly the same.

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Race of the Day – 5 December 2017

Race of the Day - 13:30 Lingfield

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Charlie Mann has an excellent record with his hurdlers over the shorter race distances (Jumps-Speed). From his last 54 runners, he's had 13 winners (24.07%) and 19 places (35.19%), for level stakes profits of 34.54 and 25.30 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 2.24, which means he is over twice as likely as average to have the winner.

He runs Glorvina in a mares' novices' hurdle over two miles at Lingfield today.

 

Glorvina is just a three-year-old and has had four hurdles races to date. She won first time out at Cartmel and has also had a second and a third-place finish. It appears that she prefers conditions with a good bit of cut in the ground, so the soft going here at Lingfield today will hopefully suit her.

The extremely promising looking claimer, James Bowen, takes the ride today and the five pounds that he is able to claim could be very useful.

Charlie Mann's runners have shown some form over the past couple of weeks. He's managed to have two winners (25%) from eight runners, for a level stakes profit of 23.50 and an Impact Value of 2.38.

The Trainer Snippets report on the racecard also shows that a good overall record Mann has. He's had 46 winners (18.70%) and 81 places (32.93%) from 246 runners, for level stakes profits of 87.68 and 61.94 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.75. This is brilliant going and he's definitely a trainer to take note of.

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There are not too many sections of green when looking at the Instant Expert report due to this being a novices' hurdle, however, Glorvina has them for the going and class, which is encouraging.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a super record, with 25.53% of them winning the race, for a level stakes profit of 24.00 and an Impact Value of 1.93.

Glorvina has comfortably the highest pace score in this field and looks the likely early leader. Hopefully, Bowen will be able to settle her into a good rhythm and then with his claimers allowance together with the three-year-old weight allowance that she receives, they will be tough to pass.

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Race of the Day – 4 December 2017

Race of the Day - 13:50 Southwell

Boost makes it onto The Shortlist today with three sections of green and two of grey, giving her a score of nine.

She runs in a competitive looking six-furlong handicap at Southwell today and is currently priced around 15/2.

Boost is a three-year-old that has had just the six races in her career to date, and she had won two and been placed in another two.

It appears that seven-furlongs have stretched her stamina in the last two races at Lingfield, so reverting back to six should be good for her. She hasn't raced here at Southwell before but has coped with the artificial surfaces at Kempton and Wolverhampton just fine, therefore, I would expect it to be the same on the fibresand here today.

When taking a look at the Sire Snippets report on the racecard, we can see that Boost's sire, Pivotal, has an excellent record with three-year-olds. He has had 96 winners (23.08%) and 181 places (43.51%) from 416 runners, for level stakes profits of 136.14 and 136.64 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 1.93, meaning these runners are almost twice as likely as average to win.

Pivotal has a strike rate on the all-weather courses of nearly one percent higher than his overall record.

The Instant Expert report confirms the good showing of Boost, and she is just the four pounds higher than for her last win.

There aren't too many of her rivals in this race that has multiple sections of green, but Razin' Hell does and looks well suited to today's conditions. He is also one pound lower than for his last win, so looks to have potential in this one.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have an excellent record, with 23.50% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 459.33 and an Impact Value of 1.97.

Razin' Hell and Boost have the highest pace scores and look the most likely to be the early leaders. They are drawn next to each other in stalls two and three, so that may help as they can drag each other along.

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Race of the Day – 1 December 2017

Race of the Day - 12:10 Southwell

Horses For Courses is the report that is available to all registered users on a Friday, and here it shows what an incredible record the seven-year-old Luv U Whatever has at Southwell. From 15 races here he has managed to win eight times (53.33%) and has been placed 12 times (80%) for level stakes profits of 16.61 and 20.46 respectively.

He runs in a one and a half mile handicap which on the face of it, doesn't look the strongest.

The current form of Luv U Whatever has been quite poor, however, he has now dropped to an extremely attractive mark (he has won from 25 pounds higher) and a return to what is clearly his favourite track will hopefully reignite him.

Majorie Fife does extremely well when sending her horses to Southwell, as can be seen from the Trainer Snippets on the racecard. Over the past year, she's had four winners (20%) and ten places (50%) from 20 runners, for level stakes profits of 16.25 and 26.89 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 1.74, meaning that she is almost one and three quarters more likely than average to have the winner.

Jockey Barry McHugh also has a good record at this course, as over the past year he's ridden six winners (24%) and 13 places (52%) from 26 runners, for level stakes profits of 16.88 and 22.68 respectively, and an Impact Value of 2.08.

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There aren't too many sections of green on the Instant Expert report, but it does show the excellent course form of Luv U Whatever, and added to that he has three sections of green. It also highlights his declining handicap mark as he is 13 pounds lower he was for his last victory.

The runner that does come out best here is Sugarloaf Mountain, with three sections of green and two of amber, and this lightly races four-year-old could prove dangerous.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have a decent record, with 15.15% of them winning the race for a level stakes profit of 16.80.

There doesn't appear to be any real pace in this race so I think there could be the possibility of it being falsely run. Luv U Whatever wouldn't particularly mind that as he has form over shorte and if it turned into a sprint at the end it may actually favour him.

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Race of the Day – 30 November 2017

Race of the Day - 14:40 Towcester

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Martin Keighly has a decent record with last time out winners. He's had 11 winners (28.95%) and 18 places (47.37%) from his last 38 such runners, for level stakes profits of 56.75 and 65.42 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 1.54.

He runs Spice Girl in a mares' maiden hurdle at Towcester today, and she is looking for a four-timer having won three bumpers over the summer.

Her three bumper wins were all on good ground and over two miles (today's going and distance), and interestingly she wasn't favourite on any of those three starts, which perhaps is an indication of how the market treats horses for slightly 'lesser' stables.

She won her latest bumper at Uttoxeter easily by ten lengths, and the second in that race has come out and won since.

Richard Johnson is on board again today (as he was for the first of her three wins), and he has a useful record here at Towcester. Over the past five years, he's had ten winners (22.73%) and 20 places (45.45%) from 44 runners, for level stakes profits of 23.16 and 22.74 respectively and an Impact Value of 1.94.

Spice Girl's sire, Black Sam Bellamy, has a reasonable record with runners over jumps between three and five years old. From a good sample of 333 runners, he's produced 46 winners (13.81%) and 120 places (36.04%) for level stakes profits of 24.32 and 46.44 respectively.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 16.31% of them going on to win the race. It's not a huge bias, however, and has produced a small level stakes loss.

The David Pipe trained Timeforben has the highest pace score based on the limited runs of some of these so far.

Spice Girl has been settled around mid-division in her runs so far and it would be no surprise to see Johnson do the same here, and try to track anything that looks dangerous.

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Race of the Day – 29 November 2017

Race of the Day - 13:05 Hereford

The Trainer Snippets report shows that Ben Pauling has an excellent record with horses he inherits from other yards (Trainer Change). From his last 18 such runners, he's managed five winners (27.78%) and eight places (44.44%)  for level stakes profits of 12.75 and 13.46 respectively. This has also produced an Impact Value of 3.11, meaning he is a little over three times as likely as average to have the winner.

Stage Summit runs for him for the first time today, in a two and a half miles novices' hurdle at Hereford.

Stage Summit won his last race for his previous trainer, which was a bumper over two miles at Limerick in July. The third horse in that race has since come out and won, and his breeding suggests that the step up in trip today to two and a half miles will be in his favour.

The Trainer Snippets report on the racecard shows that Pauling's runners have been in excellent recent form. Over the past month, he's had 12 winners (26.67%) and 20 places (44.44%) for level stakes profits of 16.84 and 9.99 respectively, and an Impact Value of 2.63.

The report also shows that he has a good record with hurdlers and middle distance jumpers, but producing good level stakes profits over a large sample of races.

Daryl Jacob has been riding very nicely recently and over the past month, he is 12/55 (21.82%) for an Impact Value of 2.15.

The Pace report shows that early leaders and prominent runners have the best record here over this distance, with win records of 13.13% and 11.51% respectively.

One of the rank outsiders, Oologist, and the favourite Court Liability, look likely to be the early leaders as they have easily the highest pace scores.

I would expect Jacob to be fairly prominent and will track the favourite throughout the race.

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Race of the Day – 28 November 2017

Race of the Day - 13:20 Sedgefield

The Trainer Jockey Combo Stats report shows that the partnership of Graeme McPherson and Kielan Woods have been in really good form over the past month. They have had four winners (21.05%) and ten places (52.63%) from 19 winners, which has produced level stakes profits of 0.10 and 2.65 respectively and an Impact Value of 2.09.

They have just the one runner together at Sedgefield today, which is Harry Hunt, in a three miles and two furlongs handicap chase.

Harry Hunt has started the season off well, with a heavy ground win over 22 furlongs at Ayr. He was slightly outpaced that day but rallied well to win, and looks likely to enjoy this step up in trip, as he has stayed this far in the past.

He does have an extra three pounds to contend with today, but with the hopeful improvement from the longer trip, I think he has a good chance of being involved.

Graeme McPherson has a good overall record in handicaps and has an even better strike rate with his chasers. From his last 96 runners over the larger obstacles, he's had 16 winners (16.67%) and 37 places (38.54%) for level stakes profits of 40.48 and 38.79. This has also produced an Impact Value of 1.32.

Although it is showing a small level stakes loss, McPherson has a strike rate of 24% with last time out winners.

Kielan Woods has been riding winners recently, with a strike rate of 20% over the past fortnight. He has also done well here at Sedgefield in the past, as he's 2/9 (22.22%) for 15.50 points and an Impact Value of 1.67.

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Harry Hunt's sire, Bertolini, hasn't produced too many horses that go chasing, but the ones he has produced have an impressive record. From 29 such runners, there have been eight winners (27.59%) and nine places (31.03%) for level stakes profits of 11.08 and 2.65 respectively, and an Impact Value of 2.19.

Runners that are nine years old and above over the jumps have a decent looking record as well.

Early leaders here over this distance have comfortably the best record, with 23.33% of them going on to win the race for a level stakes profit of 22.16 and an Impact Value of 1.52

Harry Hunt is usually quite prominent in his races and I would expect Woods to again track the leaders through the race.

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Race of the Day – 27 November 2017

Race of the Day - 15:05 Kempton

Royalraise hasn't raced for almost 500 days, but on his return to action he makes The Shortlist today in a three-mile handicap hurdle, so looks to have conditions well and truly in his favour for his first run since July 2016.

He has four sections of green for a good score of 12, with only the course section not scoring him any points having not raced here at Kempton previously.

Prior to his absence, Royalraise was running consistently well (apart from his last race where he was pulled up) and looked to be improving nicely. These were over the larger obstacles but his last race over hurdles was in a better race than this at Fontwell in which he finished second, and he races from a five pounds lower mark in this.

When looking at the Trainer Snippets on the racecard, we can see that Oliver Sherwood has had a few winners recently, and has a useful record here at Kempton. Over the past year, he's had two winners (25%) from eight runners, for a level stakes profit 4.75 and an Impact Value of 2.53.

It is also worth noting that Sherwood has a good record with his runners that are returning from a break of over 60 days, which is applicable for Royalraise.

The Instant Expert report highlights how well suited to today's conditions Royalraise is, with four sections of green and one of grey. He is also five pounds lower than for his last victory, so if he is fully fit, he could be a player in this at a big price.

There are not too many other sections of green in this report, meaning that his rivals make not be that happy in conditions here.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 18.75% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 9.73.

Volcanic and Teak have the highest pace scores, however, there doesn't appear to be any out and out front-runners in the field.

Royalraise is usually quite prominent but it will be interesting to see how they go with him after such a long break.

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Race of the Day – 24 November 2017

Race of the Day - 14:50 Ffos Las

The Horses For Courses report is available to all registered users on a Friday, and it is an excellent tool for highlighting horses that have an apparent liking for racing at particular tracks.

Driftwood Haze has a decent record when running at Ffos Las. From six races here he has won two (33.33%) and been placed in four (66.67%) for level stakes profits of 8.50 and 15.60. He is an outsider here today but one that warrants a closer look I think.

The current form of Driftwood Haze isn't particularly appealing on the face of it, but he has been running over distances that maybe a furlong or two further than ideal, and in races that were stronger than todays.

He is now on a mark (125) where he just missed out at Warwick in February and should be fit after his recent race over three miles here. He ran well for a long way that day and the drop back down to 22 furlongs will likely suit.

Taking a look at the Full Form filter with course and distance selected, we can see that he does appear to be racing in optimum conditions, as he also likes to get his toe in.

He is on the same mark as when winning here in April last year, and with his jockey able to claim seven pounds, a big run certainly isn't out of the question.

When looking at the Instant Expert report we can see that whilst there are others that appear to be more suited to today's conditions, Driftwood Haze still comes out reasonably well with one section of green and four of amber (on the 'Place' setting) and he is the only runner in the field to be racing from a mark that he has previously won from.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance, together with prominent runners, have the best overall records. It isn't a huge bias, however, and there doesn't appear to be any real pace in the race anyway. This could, therefore, turn out to be a falsely run race especially given the tricky conditions.

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