Sat TV Trends: 21st April 2018

As we head deeper into April, this Saturday we’ve another big day of horse racing with the ITV cameras heading to both Newbury and Ayr for a mixture of both flat and jumping action. The Grand National bandwagon rolls into Scotland as Ayr racecourse hosts the Scottish Grand National, while they’ve also three supporting races that include the Scottish Champion Hurdle.

Did you know ALL of the last 15 Scottish National winners ran within the last 57 days, while 13 of the last 15 were aged 8 or older?

That’s not all - the cameras are also at Newbury as the new flat turf season ramps up another notch with their Greenham Meeting – we’ve four races for flat fans from the Berkshire track.

So, as always here at GeeGeez we've got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle - use the key trends to help whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.00 – Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes (Registered As The John Porter Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
15/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
15/15 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before
14/15 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
12/15 – Having their first run of the season
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Had raced at Newbury before
9/15 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
8/15 – Drawn 6 or higher
6/15 – Had won a Group race before
5/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

 

2.35 –Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Registered As The Fred Darling Stakes) (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
13/15 – Having their first run of the season
13/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/15 – Drawn 5 or higher
8/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
8/15 – Had won over 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Had won at Newbury before
5/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
4/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/15 – Trained by the Hannon stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

 

3.10– Al Basti Equiworld Supporting Greatwood Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won at either 6f or 7f before
13/15 – Having their first run of the season
12/15 – Won at Listed class or better before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Had won over 7f before
7/15 – Had won a Group race before
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Had won a race at Newbury before
6/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Irish-trained
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

 

3.45 – Elite Racing Club Supporting Spring Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
15/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/15 – Won no more than 4 times before
13/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Rated between 85-98
12/15 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
12/15 – Won over at least 1m before
12/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
10/15 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Had run at Newbury before
3/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by Luca Cumani
2/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
1/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1

Note: The 2016 renewal was staged at Chelmsford

 

 

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AYR HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

1.45 – Scotty Brand Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m (chase) before
13/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won between 2-4 times (chase) before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Rated between 127-139
11/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/15 – Finished in the top four last time out
10/15 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – French bred
9/15 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
7/15 – Had run at Ayr before
4/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Vaniteux won the race 12 months ago
Duke of Navan won this in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

 

 

2.20 – Dawn Homes Novices’ Championship Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV

10/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/10 – Last race 6 weeks or less ago
10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences (under rules)
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top 5
8/10 -Aged 7 years-old
7/10 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Had won over 3m (fences) in the past
5/10 – Irish-trained winners
4/10 – French bred winners
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites
No real weight trend with winners in the last 10 years ranging from 10-0 to 11-11
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

 

2.55 – QTS Scottish Champion Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl2 2m ITV

15/15 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Rated 137 or higher
9/15 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
7/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites (joint)
3/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
Chesterfield won the race 12 months ago
Ch’Tibello won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

 

 

3.30 – Jordan Electrics Ltd Future Champion Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

15/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Aged 8 or younger
14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences before
14/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
8/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/15 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
6/15 – Raced at Aintree last time out
5/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Ayr before
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

 

4.05 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y ITV

15/15 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
13/15 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
13/15 – Aged 8 or older
12/15 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
11/15 – Carried 10-9 or less
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/15 – Finished in the first three last time out
10/15 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
10/15 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
10/15 – Had won over 3m1f or further
9/15 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
5/15 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/15 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 2 winners)
1/15 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 6 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 20/1

 

 

 

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Newmarket Craven Meeting TV Trends (Weds 18th-Thurs 19th April)

More LIVE ITV horse racing action this midweek as the cameras head to flat racing’s HQ – Newmarket – to take in four races on Wednesday (18th April) and Thursday (19th April).
Several early season Classic pointers to take in over the week with the Nell Gwyn and Craven Stakes both key trials ahead of the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas run at the track next month.

As always, we’ve got it all covered with the key trends, plus our tips on each of the LIVE races.

 

Wednesday 18th April 2018

1.50 – 6f (Row) Weatherbys General Stud Book Online Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)

Just two previous running
Trainer Charles Hills won the 2017 running
Trainer Kevin Ryan won the 2016 running
The last 2 winners were aged 4 years-old
No winning favourite
Trainer Kevin Ryan is 5 from 23 (22%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Barron is 0 from 16 with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 1 from 26 (4%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Appleby is 2 from 37 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian is 2 from 40 (5%) with his older horses at the track
Jockey Pat Cosgrave has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 19% (+42) record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Oisin Murphy is just 2 from 40 riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle is just 3 from 48 riding 4+ year-olds at the track

2.25 – 7f (Row) bet365 European Free Handicap (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo)

11/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/11 – Rated between 101 and 108
11/11 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Raced at Kempton, Newmarket, Ascot or Newbury last time out
10/11 – Last ran 5 ½ or longer months ago
10/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
8/11 – Drawn in stalls 2-6 (inc)
7/11 – Yet to win over 7f
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won by the Hills stable
4/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/2

3.00 – 1m1f (Row) bet365 Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+)

11/11 – Had won over a least a mile in the past
11/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/11 – Won at least 3 times in the past
9/11 – Last ran 5 months or more ago
9/11 – Had won over 1m1f or further in the past
8/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/11 – Had raced at the track before (5 won)
8/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won a Group/Listed race before
6/11 – Drawn in stalls 8 (3) or 10 (3)
5/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Trained by John Gosden
2/11 – Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam
2/11 – Ridden by William Buick
2/11 – Winning favourites
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
Richard Hannon trained the winner 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

3.35 - 7f (Row) Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo)

14/15 – Were having their first run of the season
12/15 – Had won between 1-2 times previously
12/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Had only won over 6f or 7f before
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race in the past
8/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley)
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/15 – Had won over 7f before
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (won it 7 times in all)
4/15 – Trained by John Gosden
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/15 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
1/15 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas
3 of the last 7 winners came from stall 11
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

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Thursday 19th April 2018

1.50 – 6f (Row) bet365.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo)

11/11 – Had won over 6f before
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
9/11 – Came from stall 8 or lower
9/11 – Rated between 86-93 (inc)
9/11 – Had between 1-4 previous runs
8/11 – Won after 5 ½ months or more off
8/11 – Had won just once before
8/11 – Carried between 8-13 or less
6/11 – Won from stalls 2, 6 or 8 (2 each)
6/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/11 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/11 – Ridden by Silvestre de Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

2.25 – 6f (Row) bet365 Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 3) (3yo)

9/9 – Having their debut runs
8/9 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
7/9 – Favourites placed
7/9 – Winning distance less than a length
5/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/9 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/9 – Trained by William Haggas
0/9 – Winners from stalls 1-4 (inc)
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 11/2

3.00 – 6f (Row) Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+)

11/11 – Won over 6f before
10/11 – Aged 4 or older
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/11 – Rated between 106 and 114
8/11 – Ran 5 months or more ago
8/11 – Had run at Newmarket before
8/11 – Won at least 4 times before
8/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/11 – Aged between 4 or 5 years-old
7/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/11 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/11 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/11 – Won by the Hills stable
0/11 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Brando won the race 12 months ago
Magical Memory won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/1

3.35 - 1m (Row) bet365 Craven Stakes (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo)

15/15 – Having their first run of the season
13/15 – Rated 110 or higher
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
11/15 – Yet to win over a mile
11/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Had won no more than twice before
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
9/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before (3 won)
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
5/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon (including last 4 of last 6 runnings)
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas
8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 5/1

2018 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Sat 14th April)

As we head into the last day of the 2018 Aintree Grand National Meeting on Saturday 14th April 2018 we’ve five more LIVE ITV races to enjoy.

The Stayers’ Hurdle and Maghall Novices’ Chase are always decent contests, but really – it’s all about one race on the Saturday – the Randox Health Grand National.

Here at GeeGeez we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up the best profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

SATURDAY, 14th April 2018 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 – Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: Finian’s Oscar (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

14/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
13/15 – Raced 39 days or less ago
13/15 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
11/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
11/15 – Placed in the top three last time out
10/15 – Raced in the Supreme (3), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
7/15 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (6 of the last 8 favs have won)
6/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 7 runnings)
16 of the last 20 (80%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival
Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 14 (43%) runnings between them
6 of the last 8 runnings went to a 5 year-old

 

3.00 – Doom Bar Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2017 Winner: San Benedeto (4/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Nick Schofield

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
15/15 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
15/15 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Ran within the last 35 days
12/15 – Placed in the top three in their last race
10/15 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
9/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/15 – Won their last race
6/15 – Favourites that won
5/15 – Won by either Ruby Walsh (3) or Barry Geraghty (2)
3/15 – Irish-trained winners
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 7 runnings)
2/15 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc two of the last 5 runnings)
Since 1989 there have been just 3 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015 & 2016
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 6 winners and 7 runners-up
18 of the last 23 (78%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season

 

3.40 – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: Sizing Codelco (10/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

13/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
13/15 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
10/15 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
9/15 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/15 – Unplaced in their last race
3/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Favourites that won
1/15 – Number of Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
Only 3 of the last 19 (16%) winners were aged 10+
Only 2 winners carried more than 11st in the last 14 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 41 runnings
6 of the last 8 (75%) winners were rated between 134 and 139

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4.20 – Ryanair Stayers’ Hurdle (Reg as the Liverpool Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2017 Winner: Yanworth (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Alan King
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/14 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
12/14 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 30 days
10/14 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers' Hurdle (Cheltenham)
10/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/14 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/14 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/14 – Number of Irish-trained winners
Whisper won the race in 2014 & 2015
7 of the last 9 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 9 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this

 

5.15 – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2017 Winner: One For Arthur (14/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

 

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 27 Runnings)

- 26/27 - Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 26/27 - Officially rated 137 or higher
· 25/27 - Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 24/27 - Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/27 - Aged 9 or older
· 22/27 - Returned a double-figure price
· 21/27 - Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/27 - Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 21/27 - Carried 10-12 OR LESS
· 18/27 - Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/27 - Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 16/27 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 16/27 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/27 - Placed favourites
· 14/27 - Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 14/27 - Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 9/27 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 8/27 - Trained in Ireland (inc 5 of the last 12 years)
· 6/27 - Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/27 - Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 5/27 - Won last time out
· 2/27 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/27 - Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/27 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/27 - Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

Since 1978, 120 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
14 of the last 19 winners were bred in Ireland
Only 1 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
12 of the last 21 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
3 of the last 9 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
9 of the last 15 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
5 of the last 16 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
Only three 8 year-olds have won the last 24 renewals
Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 33 years (76 have attempted)
19 of the last 21 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Trends (15 Year)

14/15 – Had won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/15 – Ran less than 50 days ago
13/15 – Officially rated 137 or higher
9/15 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/15 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
8/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Experienced the National fences
6/15 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/15 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/15 – Won their last race
2/15 – Won by the McCain yard
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 28/1

 

 

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2018 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Fri 13th April)

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 13th April 2018 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

FRIDAY, 13th April 2018 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 –  Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2017 Winner: PINGSHOU (16/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

15/15 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/15 – Finished first or second last time out
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Aged 5 years-old
8/15 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/15 – Had raced on the flat before
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 21 (71%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
21 of the last 27 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just one Irish winner since 1977
9 of the last 18 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

2.50 – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: MIGHT BITE (8/13 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico de Boinville

15/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/15 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
11/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
6/15 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Irish trained winners
28 of the last 29 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 27 winners had won over at least 3m before
33 of the last 37 (89%) winners had won twice or more over fences
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

3.25 – JLT Melling Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: FOX NORTON (4/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

15/15 – Raced within the last 30 days
14/15 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/15 - Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Irish-trained winners
6/15 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
No winners have been beaten in a previous running of the race
20 of the last 27 (74%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
29 of the last 32 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
13 of the last 23 (57%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
19 of the last 27 (70%) winners had been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
11 of the last 14 (79%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
25 of the last 27 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

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4.05 –  Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2017 Winner: Ultragold (50/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Harry Cobden

14/15 – Raced within the last 34 days
14/15 – Aged 10 or younger
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/15 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/15 – Raced within the last 23 days
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Trained by Peter Bowen
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 12 (58%) winners raced in last year’s race
9 of the last 12 (75%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
9 of the last 14 (64%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
14 of the last 25 (56%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 2 Irish-trained winners since 1979
No British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

4.40 – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2017 Winner: The Worlds End (3/1)
Trainer: Tom George
Jockey: Adrian Heskin

13/15 – Had run within the last 35 days
11/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/15 – Won their last race
5/15 – Raced in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle last time out
3/15 – Favourites that won
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
10 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (91%)
21 of the last 23 (91%) won at least twice over hurdles before
20 of the last 25 (80%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 24 (54%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
7 of the last 12 (58%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

 

 

 

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2018 Aintree Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Thurs 12th April)

Another top week for jump racing fans as the three-day Aintree Grand National Meeting kicks-off on Thursday 12th April 2018 with the ITV cameras showing five races LIVE each day.

We get going on DAY ONE with the Betway Bowl, Aintree Hurdle and the Randox Health Foxhunters’ Chase are some of the key highlights so there is bundles to look forward to.

As always with the big meetings, here at GeeGeez we've all the main trends for the LIVE ITV races – use these to help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

THURSDAY, 12th April 2018 (ITV/RUK)

 

2.20 – DOOMBAR ANNIVERSARY 4YO JUVENILE HURDLE 4YO GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo) 2m1f ITV

2017 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL (4/11 fav)
Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

14/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
12/15 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/15 – Raced in the Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
9/15 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Won by trainer Alan King (4 of the last 11)
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 13 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
French-bred horses have won 10 of the last 19 (53%) runnings
13 of the last 18 winners raced in the Triumph Hurdle earlier that season
Just 5 of the last 28 winners didn’t win at least twice over hurdles before

2.50 – BETWAY BOWL CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 3m1f ITV

2017 Winner: TEA FOR TWO (10/1)
Trainer: Nick Williams
Jockey: Lizzie Kelly

12/15 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/15 – Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
6/15 – Aged in double-figures
4/15 - Won by the Pipe stable
3/15 - Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Won last time out
15 of the last 34 (44%) winners were aged 10 or older
23 of the last 34 (68%) winners ran in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
12 of the last 21 (57%) winners were placed fourth or better in that season’s King George VI Chase
2nd or 3rd favourites have won 13 of the last 25 (52%) renewals and 6 of the last 8 (75%)
4 of the last 7 winners ran in this race 12 months ago
3 of the last 9 winners finished in the top 3 in that season’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury

3.25 – BETWAY AINTREE HURDLE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

2017 Winner: BUVEUR D’AIR (4/9 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Barry Geraghty

15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
11/15 - Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/15 – Irish-trained winners, plus 18 of the last 42
9/15 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
4/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
9 of the last 17 (53%) winners had won at this meeting before
6 of the last 11 Champion Hurdle winners to race have lost
Every British-trained winner had raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Just 1 of the last 17 Champion Hurdle runner-ups to race have won

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4.05 – THE RANDOX HEALTH FOX HUNTERS´ CHASE (CLASS 2) (6yo+) 2m5f ITV1

2017 Winner: DINEUR (16/1)
Trainer: James King
Jockey: Mickey Bowen

15/15 – Aged 9 or older (Just 2 of the last 32 were younger than 9)
12/15 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Aged in double-figures
11/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Irish-trained winner (Just 4 since 1983)
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
22 of the last 25 winners had won a race earlier that season
Only 2 of the last 34 winners were aged younger than 9
21 of the last 25 (84%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
9 of the last 13 winners had run over these National-style fences before
Ex-handicap horses have won 10 of the last 16 (63%) renewals

 

4.40 – BETWAY RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+) 2m ITV

2017 Winner: Double W’s (8/1)
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson
Jockey: Brian Hughes

14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Carried 11-1 or less
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
10/15 – Aged 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 - Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
9/15 – Aged 7 or younger
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winner
Only 2 winners older than 9 years-old since 1988
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by conditional jockeys
The top 5 in the betting have won 13 of the last 20 (65%) runnings
16 of the last 18 (89%) winners carried 11-2 or less
A Novice has won 8 of the last 16 (50%) renewals
3 of the last 11 winners raced in the previous year’s race
7 of the last 19 (37%) winners ran in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual (Cheltenham)

 

 

 

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Saturday TV Trends: 7th April 2018

As we gear-up towards the Aintree Grand National meeting in a few weeks the LIVE Saturday action does take a bit of a step down in quality at this time of year. However, we've still got seven races to take in LIVE on ITV4 and a bit of something for everyone with jumping from Kelso, plus AW action from Kempton.

The Listed Snowdrop Fillies' Stakes at Kempton is the weekend's feature contest - a race that has been won by a 4 year-old in 12 of the last 14 runnings.

So, as always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle - use the key trends to help whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

Kelso Horse Racing Trends

1.50 Sue And Harvey Smith Chase (A Novices’ Chase Limited Handicap) Cl3 (5 YO+ 0-135) 2m 7 ½ f ITV4

No previous runnings
Trainer Iain Jardine has a 30% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 21% (12 from 56) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin has a 20% (7 from 35) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is just 4 from 45 (9%) record with her chasers at the track

2.25 – totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m ITV4

6/7 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
6/7 – Unplaced last time out
6/7 – Had raced at Kelso before
5/7 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
5/7 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
4/7 – Unplaced favourites
5/7 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
3/7 – Aged 7 years-old
3/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 54% record (7 from 13) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 22% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald Whillans is only 2 from 27 (7%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rose Dobbin is only 8 from 95 (8%) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is 0 from 17 with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Susan Corbett is just 1 from 28  with her hurdlers at the track~
Trainer James Moffatt is just 1 from 32 with his hurdlers at the track

3.00 – Liz Adam Memorial Handicap Chase Cl2 3m2f ITV4

One previous running
Yala Enki (9/4) won the race in 2017
Trainer Harriet Graham has a (21%) with her chasers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 21% (12 from 56) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sue Smith is just 4 from 45 (9%) record with her chasers at the track

3.35 – Edinburgh Gin Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m2f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
3 of the last 4 winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
Trainer Lucinda Russell has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
3 of the last 4 winners returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
The last 2 winners were aged 7 years-old
1 winning favourite in the last 4 runnings
The last three winners were placed at Haydock last time out
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 56% (5 from 9)record with this hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain has a 22% record with this hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 22% record with this hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alistair Whillans is just 3 from 51 with his hurdlers at the track

 

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Betfred Mobile Handicap (Class 2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f  ITV4

One previous running
A Momentofmadness (7/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Trainer Charles Hills won the 2017 running
1 winning favourite
Last year’s winner came from stall 1
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a +£18 level stakes profit riding older horses at the track
Trainer Derek Shaw is just 7 from 94 (7%) with his older horses at the track

 

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2.40 – Betfred  ‘Supports Jack Berry House’ Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105) ITV4

Two previous runnings
Both winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
1 winning favourite
Both winners carried 8-10 or more in weight
Both winners aged 4 or 5 years-old
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 24% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Marco Botti has a 20% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Derek Shaw is just 7 from 94 (7%) with his older horses at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is 0 from 34 with his older horses at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a +£18 level stakes profit riding older horses at the track

 

3.15 - Betfred ‘Home Of Goals’ Snowdrop Fillies´ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

13/14 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/14 – Came from the top three in the betting
12/14 – Won by a 4 year-old
12/14 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m before
11/14 – Last raced 4 ½ months or more ago
11/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/14 – Rated between 90-102
9/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Unplaced in their last race
6/14 – Rated 96 or lower
5/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Had run at Kempton before
3/14 – Won by trainer Marco Botti
2/14 – Won by trainer James Fanshawe
2/14 – Won last time out
4 of the last 10 favourites have won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 33% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Jeremy Noseda has a 27% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 24% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Loughnane has a 23% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a 21% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his older horses at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 28 (4%) with his older horses at the track

 

 

 

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2018 Irish Grand National Trends

Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2018 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday (2nd April 2018), while several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

For example, did you know?  The 14 of the last 15 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 13 of the last 15 successful horses were Irish-bred. We’ve also seen just twos winning favourites in the last 15 renewals, including 12 months ago when the classy Our Duke landed the spoils as the market leader.


Recent Irish Grand National Winners

2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Key Irish Grand National Betting Trends

14/15 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
14/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won over at least 3m previously
13/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
13/15 – Irish bred
12/15 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
11/15 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
11/15 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Finished fourth or better last time out
8/15 – Rated between 130-136
8/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
4/15 – Won by an English-based trainer
3/15 – Ran at Navan last time out
2/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 23/1
Trainers Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are yet to win the race
Only two horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

Sat TV Trends: 31st March 2018

Okay, not the best Saturday's racing on the calendar, but we've still more LIVE ITV horse racing action as the cameras head to both Haydock (NH) and Musselburgh (Flat) to take in seven races across the two venues.
So, as always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle - use the key trends to help whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Enjoy!

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Smarkets Challenger Middle Distance Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m3f203y ITV4

Two previous runnings
Ballybolley won the 2016 & 2017 runnings
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies won the race in 2016 & 2017
Jockey Daryl Jacob rode the winner in 2016 & 2017
The last 2 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
The last two winners carried 11-5 in weight
One winning favourite
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 40% (12 from 30) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 29% (2 from 7) record with his chasers at the track
 

2.40 – Smarkets Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y ITV4

Two previous runnings
Trainer Tom George won the race in 2017
Both previous winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
Both winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Tom George has a 29% (5 from 17) record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Donald McCain is just 5 from 58 (9%) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jennie Candlish is just 2 from 27 (7%) with his hurdlers at the track

 

3.15 – Smarkets Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m24y ITV4

Two previous runnings
No winning favourite yet
Both winners aged between 9-10 years-old
Both winners carried between 11-3 and 11-10
Trainer Tom George won the race in 2016
Trainer Donald McCain has a 31% (11 from 35) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Ian Williams has a 29% (2 from 7) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer David Pipe has a 19% (6 from 32) record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tom George is just 1 from 21 with his chasers at the track

 

MUSSELBURGH Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV4)

 

1.50 – toteplacepot Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) 7f ITV4

One previous running
Twin Appeal (David Baron) won the race in 2017
Last year’s winner came from stall 4
Trainer Mick Easterby has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 20% record with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rowan Scott is just 2 from 39 (5%) riding older horses at the track

 

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2.25 – totescoop6 Borderlescott Sprint Trophy Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV4

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
10/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won over 5f before
9/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10 – Aged 6 or older
8/10 – Officially rated 97 or higher
7/10 – Had won 6+ times before
6/10 – Winning distance ½ length or less
6/10 – Won this after 5+ months off
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Came from stalls 4 or 5
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/10 – Trained by Bryan Smart
4/10 – Had won at Musselburgh before
3/10 – Ridden by Tom Eaves
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Ridden by David Allan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
Desert Law (14/1) won the race in 2017
Trainer Mick Appleby has a 30% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Fell is 2 from 5 (40%) strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Rebecca Bastiman has a 20% record with her 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Rowan Scott is just 2 from 39 (5%) riding older horses at the track

 

3.00 – totesport.com Royal Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 1m ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
Trainer Richard Fahey won the race in 2017
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2014
All previous winners carried between 8-0 and 8-9
All previous winners came from stalls 3-6 (inclusive)
No winning favourite yet
Trainer David Brown has a 29% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer David Baron has a 25% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey has a 21% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 21% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston has a 20% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Eaves is just 2 from 44 riding 3 year-olds at the track

 

3.35 – totepool Queen's Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
2 of the 3 previous winners aged 7
All previous winners returned a double-figure price
2 of the 3 previous winners carried between 8-5 and 8-12
No winning favourite
All three previous winners returned double-figure prices
Trainer Jim Goldie won the race in 2014
Carbon Dating (12/1) won the race 12 months ago

 

 

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Lingfield TV Trends: Good Friday (30th March 2018)

ITV4 are at Lingfield Park this Good Friday (30th March 2018) to show SIX races from the lucrative All Weather Championships Meeting – Finals Day – and here at GeeGeez.co.uk we’ve got it all covered for you!

There are plenty of the power-house flat stables bringing horses to the Surrey track and it’s no surprise with mouth-watering prize money on offer, including £124k for the winner of the feature race – the Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championship Conditions Stakes.

Like all big race days we take a look at all the LIVE races from a trends angle, including the best positive and negative trainer/jockey stats – we hope they help point you in the direction of a few winners!

 

LINGFIELD HORSE RACING TRENDS

 

1.30 – Sunbets All Weather Championships Apprentice Handicap Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f ATR

One previous running
Trainer Simon Dow won the race 12 months ago
Last year’s winner came from stall 1
Trainer William Haggas has a 36% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Brian Meehan has a 21% record with this older horses at the track
Jockey Cameron Noble has a 33% record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Jason Watson has a 28% record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Joshua Bryan is just 1 from 34 riding older horses at the track
Jockey Nicola Currie is just 4 from 55 riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: FORCEFUL APPEAL (33/1)

 

2.00 - Betway All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m7f169y ITV

Four previous runnings
All four winners aged between 4-6 years-old
2 of the last 4 favourites have won
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
3 of the last 4 winners had won at the track before
2 of the last 4 winners ran at Lingfield last time out
All four past winners finished in the top 3 last time out
The favourite has finished 1st (twice) or 2nd in the last 4 runnings
Watersmeet was second in the race 12 months ago
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 32% record with this older horses at the track
Trainer Ed Dunlop has a 21% record with this older horses at the track
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 31% record with his older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: WINNING STORY (7/1)

 

2.30 – 32Red All weather Fillies’ and Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 7f1y ITV

Four previous runnings
No winning favourite in the last 4 runnings
3 of the 4 winners were aged 4 years-old
All four previous winners were Irish-bred horses
Horses from stall 3 have been placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings (2 winners)
Favourites placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners had run at Lingfield before (2 had won)
3 of the last 4 winners finished in the top 4 last time out
Trainer William Haggas has a 36% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer James Fanshawe has a 31% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Charlie Fellowes has a 19% record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Chris Dwyer is only 3 from 57 (3%) with his older horses at the track
2017 Winner: REALTRA (6/1)

 

3.05 – Betway All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 6f1y ITV

Trainer Richard Fahey won this race in 2014, 2016 & 2017
Two winning favourites in the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners were Irish-bred horses
All four previous winners had raced at the track before
All four winners drawn in stall 7 or lower
Paul Hanagan has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
The last 2 winners came from draw 5
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 24% (17 from 71) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer David Evans is just 15 from 179 (8%) with his older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: KIMBERELLA (4/1 jfav)

 

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3.40 – 32Red 3 Year Old All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (3yo) 6f

One previous running
Last year’s winner came from stall 5
Trainer Roger Charlton has a 24% record with this 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Simon Dow has a 20% record (+£43) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Amanda Perrett has a 22% record (+£42) with her 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 5 from 66 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
2017 Winner: SECOND THOUGHT (11/8 fav)

 

4.10 – Sunbets All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m1y ITV

No winning favourite in the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners didn’t win their last race
All four past winners drawn 8 or lower
All four winners came between stalls 5-8 (inc)
All four past winners had run at the track before (2 won)
2 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
Trainer William Haggas has 36% (8 from 22) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tom Dascombe has a 24% (17 from 71) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Tracey Collins has a 67% (2 from 3) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 22% (10 from 45, +£19) record with his older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: SOVEREIGN DEBT (8/1)

 

4.40 - Betway Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes Cl2 (4 yo+) 1m2f ITV

All four previous runnings went to the favourite
All four previous winners returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
All previous winners aged between 4-6 years-old
3 of the 4 winners were Irish-bred horses
All four winners ran at Lingfield last time out
All four previous winners drawn in stall 4 or lower
All four past winners had won over CD before
Horses from stall 2 placed in 3 of the last 4 runnings
Ryan Moore has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners of this race
Trainer William Haggas has 36% (8 from 22) record with his older horses at the track
Trainer Archie Watson has a 23% (11 from 48) record with this older horses at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 33% (16 from 49) record riding older horses at the track
Jockey Josie Gordon is just 5 from 109 (5%) riding older horses at the track
2017 Winner: CONVEY (11/10 fav)

 

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Sat TV Trends: 24th March 2018

Another busy day this Saturday with seven LIVE ITV4 races at Newbury and Doncaster. It's National Hunt jumping action at Newbury, while Doncaster get the new turf season under way with the Lincoln Handicap their feature contest. As always, here at GeeGeez we've got it all covered from a trends angle - use these key stats to help narrow down the big fields and find the best profile of past winners.

 

DONCASTER Horse Racing Trends

1.50 - Unibet Cammidge Trophy (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
13/14 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
13/14 – Had won no more than 5 times before
12/14 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
11/14 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/14 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Raced at Doncaster, Ascot, Lingfield or Windsor last time out
9/14 – Had won over 6f before
9/14 – Last ran 4 months or longer ago
8/14 – Rated 102+
8/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Had raced at Doncaster before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Had won at Doncaster before
6 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 9-16 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
Note: The 2007 running was staged at Newcastle
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Redcar

 

2.25 – 32Red Spring Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

14/16 – Carried 8-13 or more
13/16 – Aged 4 years-old
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/16 – Finished fourth or worse last time out
11/16 – Won over a mile before
8/16 – Won from a double-figure draw
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Won a race at Doncaster before
2/16 – Winners from stalls 3-7 (inclusive)
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Richard Fahey has trained the winner in 2010 & 2014
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 15/1
Just 1 winner older than 6 in the last 16 years
Lord Of The Rock won the race in 2016
Trainer William Haggas has a 23% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer John Gosden is 0 from 24 (0%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills is 1 from 28 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Declan Carroll is 2 from 45 (4%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

3.00 – Unibet Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

Just 5 previous running
5/5 – Last ran 4+ months ago
5/5 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Rated 108+
4/5 – Winners from stalls 2 or 4 (2 each)
4/5 – Had won 6+ times before
4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/5 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Ran at Ascot last time out
1/5 – Won last time out
Trainer Roger Varian has a 29% record with his older horses here
Trainer David Simcock has a 30% record with his older horses here
Trainer Michael Dods is just 1 from 61 (2%) with his older horses here

 

3.35 – 32Red Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

15/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
13/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/15 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Having their first run of the flat season
10/15 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
8/15 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Officially rated between 95-98
7/15 – Placed first or second last time out
6/15 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
5/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15  - Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Trained by William Haggas
2/15 – Trained by John Quinn
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 32 runnings
7 of the last 8 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Insure With Be Wiser Handicap Chase Cl3 3m2f ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
6/7 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
6/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
5/7 – Aged 9 years-old
5/7 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
5/7 – Had won over 3m (or further) before (fences)
4/7 – Had raced over fences at Newbury before
4/7 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
3/7 – Irish bred
1/7 – Winning favourites
1/7 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1

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2.40 – Be Wiser Handicap  Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV4

9/9 – Won no more than twice over hurdles before
9/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Favourites placed in the top three
8/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – Raced 113 or higher
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
3/9 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/9 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

3.15 - EBF & TBA Mares´ "National Hunt" Novices´ Hurdle Finale Limited Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

12/13 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/13 – Won between 1-2 times before (hurdles)
9/13 –  Ran in the last 4 weeks
9/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Aged 6 years-old
7/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Ran at Huntingdon last time out
2/13 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/13 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
The last 11 winners carried 11-3 or less in weight
9 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or less in weight
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Noel Williams has a 43% record (3 from 7) with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams is only 1 from 26 (4%) with her hurdlers at the track
Trainer Rebecca Curtis is just 1 from 28 (4%) with his hurdlers at the track

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 17th March 2018

It's always a bit quiet this weekend with the Cheltenham hangovers, but there is still ITV Racing to take in with the cameras heading to Uttoxeter, with the Midlands National the feature, while they are also at Kempton Park.

As always, we are  on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

Uttoxeter Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

 

2.25 - Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Limited Handicap Chase Cl3 3m ITV

11/14 – Aged 8 or younger
11/14 – Carried 10-9 or more
10/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/14 – Had won over at least 3m (chases) before
9/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Never raced at Uttoxeter before
9/14 – Returned 7/1 or less
8/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Aged 7 years-old
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/14 – Winning favourites
American (2/1 fav) won the race in 2017 (Harry Fry)

 

3.00 - Betfred ´Treble Odds On Lucky15´s´ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m3f207y ITV

Only 6 Previous Runnings
6/6 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
5/6 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winning favourites
2/6 – Aged 8 years-old
Fortunate George (4/1 fav) won the race in 2017 (Emma Lavelle)
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 6/1
Trainer Sue Smith has a good record with her chasers at the track
Trainer Philip Hobbs has good record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Noel Fehily has a good record riding over fences at the track

3.35 - Betfred Midlands Grand National Chase Handicap (Listed Race) Cl1 4m1f110y ITV

14/14 – Aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
12/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Won by an Irish bred horse
11/14 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/14 – Carried 10-9 or less
10/14 – Had never run at Uttoxeter before
10/14 – Officially rated 133 or less
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
9/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/14 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
4/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Trained by David Pipe
3/14 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 11/1

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

2.05 – Matchbook VIP Chase (A Novices’ Limited Handicap) Cl3 2m ITV

10/11 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/11 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
7/11 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
7/11 – Won at least once over fences before
5/11 – Unplaced last time out
5/11 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Won 3 or more times before over fences
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Tom George (2 of last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1
Days Of Heaven (4/1) won the race in 2017 (Nicky Henderson)
Trainer Nicky Henderson has an excellent strike-rate with his chasers at the track

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2.40 – Matchbook Racing Is Commission Free Silver Plate Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m5f ITV

Only 4 previous runnings
Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
No winning favourite yet from the last 4 runnings
All 4 previous winners carried 11-6 or more
Brio Conti (8/1) won the race in 2017 (Paul Nicholls)
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a good strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Harry Fry has a good strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Philip Hobbs has a poor strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Gary Moore has a poor strike-rate with his hurdlers at the track

3.15 – Matchbook Silver Bowl (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

Only four previous running
1 winning favourite (co) from the last 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners carried 11-2 or more
Trainers Ian Williams, Paul Nicholls, Tom George and Jonjo O’Neill have won the race so far
Max Ward (9/2 co fav) won the race in 2017 (Tom George)
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a good strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a poor strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a poor strike-rate with her chasers at the track

 

 

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2018 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 16th March 2018)

Each day of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 16th March 2018

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2017 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL (1st 5/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Richard Johnson

Pluses…..

  • 19 of the last 24 winners won last time out
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • French-bred have filled 8 of the last 9 places (last 3 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 13 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (6 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 14 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 6 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 5 of the last 9 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 11


14:10 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2017 Winner: ARCTIC FIRE (1st 20/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 11 runnings
  • 4 of the last 10 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 6 of the last 10 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 9 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 10 of the last 14 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners in the last 14 years
  • 10 of the last 17 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 9 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 26 (+20pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 25 (+54pts)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 4 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 7 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005 116 runners rated 140+ have lost
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts (0 from 67 since 1993)

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2017 Winner: PENHILL (1st 16/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 13 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 13 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 13 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 11 of the last 13 had run in a race over 3m
  • 10 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 12 favourites won
  • Jonjo O’Neill (2) and the Irish (4) have won 7 of the last 12

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles (0 from 34)
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 29 in the race
  • Only 2 of the last 13 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2017 Winner: SIZING JOHN (1st 7/1)
Trainer – Jessie Harrington
Jockey – Robbie Power

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 18 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
  • 15 of the last 17 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 12 of the last 17 had won or placed 2nd at the Festival before
  • 15 of the last 17 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 16 of the last 17 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 15 of the last 21 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 12 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • 9 winners since 2000 HADN’T run in the calendar year

Negatives….

  • Non Grade One winners are 0 from the last 18 runnings
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 70)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 3 from last 24
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 79)
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record ( 0 from 42)
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 18 (had last 4 of the last 5 seconds though)
  • Just 1 of the last 10 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their 1st Gold Cup are 0 from 66 when running again

Recent Cheltenham Gold Cup Winners

2017 – SIZING JOHN (7/1)
2016 – DON COSSACK (9/4 fav)
2015 – CONEYGREE (7/1)
2014 – LORD WINDEMERE (20/1)
2013 – BOBS WORTH (11/4 fav)
2012 – SYNCHRONISED (8/1)
2011 – LONG RUN (7/2 fav)
2010 – IMPERIAL COMMANDER (7/1)
2009 – KAUTO STAR (7/4 fav)
2008 – DENMAN (9/4)
2007 – KAUTO STAR (5/4 fav)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (15/2)
2005 – KICKING KING (4/1 fav)
2004 – BEST MATE (8/11 fav)
2003 – BEST MATE (13/8 fav)

Cheltenham Gold Cup Betting Trends

15/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had raced within the last 3 months
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/15 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
12/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Irish bred
9/15 – Had won 5 or more times over fences in the UK or Ire before
9/15 – Rated 170 or higher
8/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Had last raced in the previous year
7/15 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
5/15 – Last race was in the King George VI Chase (Kempton)
5/15 – Irish-trained winners
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Won the Denman Chase (Newbury) last time out
2/15 – Ran in the Lexus Chase last time out
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
The average winning SP in the last 15 renewals is 5/1

Other Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats

Only one horse (Kauto Star 2009) has ever regained the race
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 9 or younger
9 of the last 16 winners came here fresh – did not race that same calendar year
15 of the last 17 winners were rated 166 or higher
17 of the last 19 winners had won a race already that current season
12 of the last 17 winners had finished second or better at the Cheltenham Festival before
11 of the last 18 winners had run in that season’s King George VI Chase (Kempton)
All of the previous 18 winners had won a Grade One Chase contest before
The last winner aged older than 10 was in 1969 (What a Myth, 12)

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Cheltenham Gold Cup – 20 Year Trends

15/20 – British-trained winners
5/20 – Irish-trained winners (3 of last 4 though)
Willie Mullins (Ire) never trained the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 3 of the last 11 winners (4 in total)

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2017 Winner: PACHA DU POLDER (1st 16/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 27 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 24 of the last 32 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 26 of the last 29 started out in point-to-point races
  • 10 of the last 12 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 7)
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 7 of the last 9 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • 26 of the last 27 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 3 from 209 since 1990

 

16:50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2017 Winner: CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC (1st 12/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – J Slevin

Pluses….

  • All 9 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 (all making handicap debuts)
  • 27 of the 29 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 7 of the 9 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 4 of the 9 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the 9 winners were rated 133-139
  • 6 of the 9 winners returned at a double-figure price (7 of the last 9 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won ALL 9 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 11 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 7 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (3 winners, 3 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 5 years

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 18, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 9 year history (6/8 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 44
  • Only 2 winners have previous Festival experience

 

17:30 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2017 Winner: ROCK THE WORLD (1st 10/1)
Trainer – Jessie Harrington
Jockey – Robbie Power

Pluses….

  • 15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 6 of the last 14 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
  • 7 of the last 8 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Keep the Irish horses on your side (won 3 of the last 5)
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (3 winners, 8 placed)
  • The last 7 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 9 runnings
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 5 of the last 7 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 17 of the last 18 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 1 win from the last 22 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just five winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 12
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 27 since 2005
  • Just 1 winner rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record (0 from 106)

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 10th March 2018

It's the weekend before Cheltenham so the quality of racing always takes a bit of a backseat. This weekend the ITV cameras head to Sandown with the Imperial Cup their feature, and don't forget the winner of the race will be up for a £100k bonus if they go onto land any Cheltenham Festival race next week. We've also got two LIVE races on the AW from Wolverhampton, with their Lincoln Trial the main event.

As always, we are  on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Matchbook VIP "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV

15/15 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Carried 10-11 or more
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Rated 129 or less
12/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Irish bred
11/15 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
11/15 – Unplaced favourites
10/15 – Aged 6 years-old
7/15 – Had won over this trip before
5/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/15 – Winning favourites
1/15 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
Minella Awards (8/1) won the race in 2017 (Harry Fry)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

 

 

2.25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/15 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
12/15 – Aged 6 or younger
12/15 – Rated 124 or higher
10/15 – Carried 10-7 or less
10/15 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
10/15 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
9/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
9/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
7/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/15 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – French bred
5/15 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/15 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
1/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
London Prize (10/1) won the race in 2017 (Ian Williams)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 10.5/1

 

 

3.00 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/14 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
13/14 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
12/14 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
10/14– Won last time out
9/14 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/14 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
7/14 – Aged 5 years-old
1/14 – Winning favourites
Cap Soleil (9/2) won the race in 2017 (Fergal O’Brien)
8 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Fergal O’Brien won the race in 2017
Trainer Warren Greatrex won the race in 2016
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

 

3.35 – Matchbook Racing Is Commission Free Handicap Chase Cl3 3m37y ITV

13/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
13/15 – Carried 11-1 or more
13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
12/15 -  Rated between 125-134
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Aged 8 or older
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
Shanroe Santos (10/3 fav) won the race in 2017 (Lucy Wadham)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

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Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.05 – Sunbets.co.uk Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV

14/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Won over a mile (or further) before
12/15– Won at least three times before
12/15 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
8/15 – Came from stall 8 or higher
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 5 years-old
6/15 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Nimir (3/1 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

3.15 – Sunbets.co.uk Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV

10/11 – Had won over 7f before
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Had won at least 4 times before
9/11 – Placed favourites
9/11 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
8/11 – Rated 104 or higher
7/11 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/11 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/11 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/11 – Unplaced last time out
5/11 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
3/11 – Winning favourite
2/11 – Trained by Marco Botti
Salateen won the race in 2017 (25/1)

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 24th Feb 2018

This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with their newly-sponsored Betdaq Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Winter Derby and the Newcastle for their Eider Chase.

As always, we are  on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Betdaq Now 2% Commission Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV

11/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/13 – French (8) of Irish (3) bred
10/13 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/13 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
9/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Winning favourites

2.25 - Betdaq #ChangingForTheBettor Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

13/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
11/14 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
9/14– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – French bred
5/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Trained by Alan King
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

11/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/12 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
9/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/12 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
9/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – French bred
4/12 – Trained by Alan King
4/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

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3.35 – Betdaq Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV

13/15 – Rated 139 or higher
13/15 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
12/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
10/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Rated between 139 and 150
7/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Carried 11-5 or more
5/15 – Aged 8 years-old
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/15 – Trained by Tom George
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/15 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
2/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 - Betfred Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV

14/14 – Had won over at least 3m before
12/14 – Aged 10 or younger
11/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
11/14 – Priced 11/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Irish-bred
10/14 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Officially rated between 131-139
8/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
5/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/14 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 10/1

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV

10/11 – Rated 96+
9/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/11 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
8/11 – Placed favs
8/11 – Had raced at Lingfield before
7/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/11 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/11 – US bred
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Mare winners
3/11 – Trained by David Barron
0/11 – Winners from stall 1

3.15 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV

15/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
11/15 – Had run at Lingfield previously
11/15 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/15 – Had raced at either Lingfield (7) or Kempton (4) last time out
11/15 – Winning distance – less than a length
10/15 – Placed in their last race
10/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the market
9/15 – Won at Lingfield previously
9/15 – Won their last race
9/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
8/15 – Won at least 6 times previously
7/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the 15 renewals is 11/2

Sat TV Trends: 17th Feb 2018

Another huge day on the horse racing front this weekend as the ITV cameras will be heading to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton this Saturday. The Grand National Trial at Haydock and the Ascot Chase (yes, you guessed it, at Ascot) are the feature contests to look out for.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

 

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (An Ascot Appearance Money Scheme Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

15/15 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
13/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
13/15 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
8/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Won 1 or 2 chase previously
6/7 - Finished 5th or better last time out
6/7 – Aged 8 or older
6/7 – Raced at either Ascot (2) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
5/7 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
4/7 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
4/7 – Aged in double-figures
3/7 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/7 – Irish bred
3/7 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Favourites
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11-0 or more
Tenor Nivernais won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 9/2

3.00 - Ascot Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f110y ITV

11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/12 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
8/12 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
8/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
7/12 – Carried 10-12 or less
7/12 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/12 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Placed favourites
5/12 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
5/12 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/12 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/12 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
2/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/12 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 10/1

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

15/15 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
14/15 – Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
13/15 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
13/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
12/15 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/15 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
11/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Officially rated 158 or higher
10/15 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
10/15 – Favourites that won
7/15 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/15 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/15 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
5/15 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
5/15 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
4/15 – Won their last race
3/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Cue Card won the race in 2013 & 2017
9 of the last 11 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/8

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HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.05 - Betfred Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

14/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/15 – Rated 145 or higher
10/15 – Aged 8 or younger
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
10/15 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
8/15 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
6/15 – French-bred
6/15 – Had run at Haydock before
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/15 – Winning favourites
1/15 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Zarkandar won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

3.15 - Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

15/15 – UK-based trained winners
15/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
12/15 – Aged 10 or younger
11/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/15 – Rated 135 or higher
10/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/15 – Irish-bred winners
4/15 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/15 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/15 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/15 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

 

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (RUK/ITV)

2.45 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

14/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/14 – Priced 10/3 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
12/14 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Rated 155 or higher
8/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
8/14 – Winning favourites
8/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
3/14 – Trained by Alan King
1/14 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
Yanworth won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4

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