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Racing Bulletin for 27/11/2021

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Fairyhouse

Good

11:30 12:00 12:30 13:01 13:36 14:11 14:46 15:21
Newcastle

Good

11:45 12:20 12:55 13:30 14:05 14:40 15:15
Doncaster

Good

12:05 12:35 13:08 13:43 14:18 14:53 15:28
Newbury

Good to Soft

12:10 12:40 13:15 13:50 14:25 15:00 15:35
Bangor-on-Dee

Good to Soft

12:15 12:47 13:22 13:57 14:32 15:07 15:42
Wolverhampton

Standard

16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30
10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards

Latest News, Tips and Features

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Trainer/Jockey Combo report

Good luck!


Racing Insights, 27th November 2021

The Trainer/Jockey Combo stats report (TJC) brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

We make this TJC report free to all readers every Saturday , alongside the following free races of the day...

  • 1.15 Newbury
  • 1.22 Bangor
  • 2.46 Fairyhouse
  • 3.00 Newbury
  • 3.42 Bangor
  • 5.00 Wolverhampton

For today's piece, I'm turning to the TJC report for a look at a combo that has done well over the past year...

...and the Alistair Ralph/Nick Scholfield partnership have two runners at Bangor tomorrow.

Butler's Brief is a 6yr old gelding who runs in a 7-runner, Class 3, chase over 2m4½f on Good to Soft ground, whilst Llantara is a 10yr old mare in a 9-runner, Class 4, chase over 2m1½f. The trainer/jockey combo have a total of 7 wins and 7 further places from 25 races this year and they include...

  • 1 win, 3 places from 7 here at Bangor
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 18 in handicaps (as per the report)
  • 2 wins, 3 places from 7 in hcp chases
  • 1 win, 2 places from 6 on good to soft ground

    Re : Butler's Brief, the pair are...

  • 1 place from 2 Class 3 runs
  • 7 wins, 4 places from 21 with male runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 14 with 6 yr olds

    As for Llantara, they are...

  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 at Class 4
  • 3 places from 4 with females
  • no runs with 10 yr olds

Butler's Brief steps down in class after a poor run in a 3m½f, Class 2 hurdle at Cheltenham five weeks ago, but probably needed the run after a five month break from action. Prior to that break, he won three times on the spin, all under Nick Scholfield's steering and he now tackles fences for the first time and runs off the same mark as when pulled up LTO. He's pretty inexperienced under today's conditions with just two good to soft runs, but he is 1 from 1 here at Bangor, having finished 9 lengths clear of the field in the third of those wins above.

He likes to race prominently and that would appear to be a good tactic here, although he's only 4th of 7 on average pace scores. That said, both yard and rider have good records here at Bangor and  they'll know what tactics would work best here.

*

Llantara obviously shares the same stats as her stablemate above, but she's on a 9-race losing run, having last tasted success at Hexham in mid-March 2019, so it has been a while between drinks. In fairness to her, aside from a poor run LTO some 238 days ago, she had made the frame in five of her six starts since the start of 2020, suggesting there might still be some life in the old girl yet.

She may well need the run after 8 months off, but is assisted by dropping down two classes and a couple of pounds so that she's now 6lbs lower than her last win, which was over hurdles as she now tackles fences for only the second time. She has tended to be held-up when racing over hurdles, but those tactics probably won't be the rights ones here and she'll either stick with the old approach and struggle, or she'll be asked to get more involved earlier and I suspect the latter will apply as the team certainly know what it takes to win here.

Summary

The Ralph/Scholfield combo run two chasers here at Bangor and both have the ability to get in the mix, if they can overcome their lack of experience over fences. I do like Butler's Brief and I think he could go well here on chase debut. He's attractively priced at 8/1 but I think the likes of the 11/2 Mint Condition or the 4/1 Champagnesuperover might fare a little better than him. From an E/W perspective, there are sadly just two places being paid, but at 8's, I'll possibly still have a small punt.

Llantara, on the other hand, looks up against it, despite dropping two classes, especially if dwells at the back of the field. She ahs been off the track for a long time and I think I'd have preferred her to have had a more recent run. She's no mug and places consistently, but it'll be a watching brief for me here, even if she is a tempting 12/1. The 7/2 Boagrius is probably the one to beat, whilst his 16/1 stablemate Baby King might well outrun those odds for a place.

How Newbury’s Pace Bias Changes Over Fences At Different Distances

Newbury and Newcastle host the top action this weekend with the more competitive racing seemingly coming from Newbury.

The ‘Ladbrokes Trophy Chase’ is the highlight on the card, run over 3m2f, and it will be very interesting to examine any potential course pace biases at that trip and compare them to shorter distances.

Newbury Chase Pace Bias Over Longer Distances

Here is the pace bias data for bigger field handicaps over 3m+ at Newbury.

Not a huge sample size but not a poor one either. As such the win data can be taken with a slight pinch of salt but that seems to suggest that the closer you are to the pace the better. Front runners and prominent racers score a 11.36% and 10.62% win percentage respectively. That compares extremely favourably with 5.17% and 2.92% for mid division and held up respectively.

Given the sample size more notice should be taken of the place data but that also follows a similar trend with front runners coming out best again 34.09% and the data tailing off the further back you go until you reach hold up performers. They have a place percentage of just 13.87% - a huge drop off from the performance of the other three run styles. 

Each way bets on front runners and prominent runners are both profitable to back win and place, producing EW PL of 1.5 and 4.5 respectively whilst as you’d expect, following runners that race in mid division or the rear has been unprofitable. It’s also worth noting that despite lesser representation, front runners and prominent racers win almost twice as many races as their patiently ridden counterparts (17 winners compared to 10 winners).

Overall Chase Bias At Newbury

So how does the above data compare with shorter trips at Newbury?

This shows the performance (place percentage) of front runners and prominent racers combined across various chase trips at Newbury in the same races as the earlier pace data. The distances are shown along the bottom, in furlongs. There is no really clear trend unfortunately.

You’d normally see a stronger early pace performance at shorter trips and that is the case here with 16f and 17f coming out best of all. It’s much poorer between 18f and 22f, and also over the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase distance of 26f, but it appears that over 24f (3m) there is a clear increase in the effectiveness of early pace here.

That’s not to say early pace isn’t effective over 3m2f here, in fact front runners still have the best win and place percentages over that trip, but it seems that racing in mid division is more effective over the extra distance than it is over the shorter distances (and 3m).

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Preview

With pace being analysed in this article we’ll of course want to note the pace map first.

Front runners do well over this course and distance but this might not be the race for them with a likely contested early speed. There are four fairly strong contenders to lead early in this, Remastered, One More Fleurie, Eklat De Rire and Cloth Cap, so this could setup for something ridden a little more patiently.

That doesn’t mean it will be ideal to be held up miles off the pace as despite looking a pretty fair course it’s clearly still not easy to make up plenty of ground here. So with that in mind the likes of Cloudy Glen, Kitty’s Light and The Hollow Ginge will need to run particularly well to get into this.

Ontheropes is likely to be a pretty warm order for Willie Mullins having won impressively last time out. He seems to have quite the engine and obviously the trainer has to be massively respected whenever he sends anything over but the majority of his form is on very testing ground so there is a slight unknown as regards to the ground. Potentially not one to get stuck into at a shortish price.

Eklat De Rire also has ground concerns in terms of being unproven and he’s also lacking big field form too which could count against him. He is also likely to sit very close to what will probably be a strong gallop. He’s one of a few here that could be anything but I’d prefer to have something a bit more ‘solid’ running for me in a race like this.

Fiddlerontheroof’s latest win has taken a knock since and he’s still got to prove himself over this far. There are certainly no stamina doubts about Enrilo who was first past the post but demoted to 3rd in last season’s bet365 Gold Cup Chase over 3m5f, a race that took place on good ground. He’s gone well fresh previously and should be able to sit a little way off the pace so he’s certainly one of those more solid contenders, for all he’s short enough in the early betting.

Around Enrilo in that bet365 Gold Cup were Potterman and unlucky loser Kitty's Light and they reoppose here. Despite the likelihood of a decent gallop here, Kitty’s Light might not be ideally placed as he is often very patiently ridden. Potterman on the other hand may be just about ideally placed and he seems to love good ground. He ran very well last time out and despite being 6lbs higher than when unseating in this last year he looks a good each way punt at around 14/1 with up to 7 places on offer with the bookies for this.

I also wouldn’t want to rule out Brave Eagle from getting into the places at a big price (25s general at time of writing). He was 8th in this two years ago off a 9lb higher mark when hampered twice and he ran very respectably after almost a year off last time out. He’ll be entitled to come on plenty for that and for anyone who can get on with the bookmakers with the better each way terms he’d be worth a small interest.

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Trends

Run at Newbury racecourse over 3m 2 1/2f the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is handicap race this gives National Hunt fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities.

Here at GeeGeez, we look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th November.

Did you know - 17 of the last 19 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger?

 

Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Winners

2020 - CLOTH CAP (9/1)
2019 – DE RASHER COUNTER (12/1)
2018 – SIZING TENNESSEE (12/1)
2017 – TOTAL RECALL (9/2 fav)
2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav)
2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav)
2002 - GINGEMBRE (16/1)

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends

17/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
16/19 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
13/19 – Had a previous run that season
12/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/19 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (7) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1
11 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (30 runnings) there have been 14 winners (47%) aged 7 years-old

 

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Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 27th Nov 2021

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase – plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, here at GeeGeez.co.uk, we've got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

Did you know? 17 of the last 19 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 - Sir Peter O´Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase Cl3 2m6f93y ITV3

15/15 – Aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
10/15 – Aged 7 or younger
9/15 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
9/15 – Raced at Wincanton (4), Cheltenham (3) or Bangor (2) last time out
9/15 – Officially rated between 126-130
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Had raced at Newbury over fences before
6/15 – French bred
5/15 – Placed favourites
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Winning favourites
Kapcorse (12/1) won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV3

5 previous runnings
All of the last 5 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
4 of the last 5 winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
4 of the last 5 winners carried 11st 3lbs or more in weight
3 of the last 5 winners were aged 6 years-old
2 of the last 5 winners trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainers Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have won this race in the past
2 winning favourites (joint) in the last 5 years

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV3

14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
14/15 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/15 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
12/15 – Irish, French or German bred
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/15 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury before
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Aged 5 years-old
6/15 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/15 – Won last time out
9 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Floressa (10/1) won the race in 2020

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y ITV3

17/19 – Aged 8 or younger
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
17/19 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
16/19 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/19 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/19 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
13/19 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
13/19 – Had a previous run that season
12/19 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/19 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/19 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Won last time out
9/19 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (7) last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 9)
2/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/1
11 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 1lb or more
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (30 runnings) there have been 14 winners (47%) aged 7 years-old

 

3.35- Watch Racing Free Online At Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV3

17/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/19 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/19 – French bred
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
10/19 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/19 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/19 – Placed in their last race
10/19 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
8/19 – Unplaced favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Trained by Venetia Williams
11 of the last 15 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Zanza (5/2) won the race in 2020
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.30 - Betfair Daily Rewards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-135) 2m7 1/2f ITV3

10/10 - Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 - Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/10 - Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/10 - Carried 10st 8lbs or more
8/10 - Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/10 - Placed favourites
6/10 - Winning favourites
6/10 - Irish bred
5/10 - Had run at the track before
3/10 - Trained by Sue Smith
2/10 - Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

 

2.05 – BetFair Exchange Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV3

16/17 – Didn’t win their last race
15/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
14/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
12/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/17 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Unplaced favourites
5/17 – Aged 8 years-old
4/17 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
8 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

3.15 – BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

19/19 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
17/19 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
17/19 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
16/19 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
16/19 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
9/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/19 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
5/19 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 13)
4/19 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 5/1
Epatante (8/11 fav) won the race in 2020

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

Racing Bulletin for 26/11/2021

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Lingfield Park

Standard

11:20 11:50 12:20 12:55 13:30 14:05 14:40 15:15
Newbury

Good to Soft

12:10 12:40 13:15 13:50 14:25 15:00 15:35
Doncaster

Good

12:30 13:05 13:40 14:15 14:50 15:25
Dundalk

Standard

16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30
Chelmsford

Standard

16:15 16:45 17:15 17:45 18:15 18:45 19:15
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Latest News, Tips and Features

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Horses for Courses report

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Fighting Fifth Hurdle Trends

Sponsored by leading bookmaker Betfair, the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth hurdle is staged at Newcastle racecourse.

Having first been run in 1969 the contest is often seen as an early-season trial for the Champion Hurdle, with the Nicky Henderson-trained Punjabi (2008) and Buveur D'Air (2018) the last horses to win both races in the same season.

The 2017 and 2018 Champion Hurdle winner – Buveur d’Air – landed this race in 2017 before going onto Cheltenham glory again in March 2018, while he also took the prize in 2018 and was second in 2019. 12 months ago it was another Nicky Henderson/JP McManus runner that won the race as Epatante with ease and went onto finish third in the 2021 Champion Hurdle.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we are on hand as he looks back at past winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th November.

Recent Fighting Fifth Hurdle Winners

2020 - EPATANTE (8/11 fav)
2019 – CORNERSTONE LAD (16/1)
2018 – BUVEUR D’AIR (11/8)
2017 – BUVEUR D’AIR (1/6 fav)
2016 – IRVING (6/1)
2015 – IDENTITY THIEF (6/1)
2014 – IRVING (6/4 fav)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (8/11 fav)
2012 – COUNTRYWIDE FLAME (11/4)
2011 – OVERTURN (7/4)
2010 – PEDDLERS CROSS (9/4)
2009 – GO NATIVE (25/1)
2008 – PUNJABI (8/11 fav)
2007 – HARCHIBALD (4/1)
2006 – STRAW BEAR (Evs fav)
2005 – ARCALIS (9/4 fav)
2004 – HARCHIBALD (9/4 jfav)
2003 – THE FRENCH FURZE (25/1)
2002 – INTERSKY FALCON (11/10 fav)

Fighting Fifth Hurdle Betting Trends & Stats

19/19 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
17/19 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
17/19 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
16/19 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
16/19 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
15/19 – Placed favourites
14/19 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/19 – Won their last race
11/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/19 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
9/19 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/19 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/19 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
5/19 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 13)
4/19 – Won by an Irish based yard
3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/19 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7)
2/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 5/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

 

 

 

 

Racing Insights, 26th November 2021

My Friday's Horses for Courses (H4C) report looks like this...

...and I'm showing you that because this report is free to all readers every Friday, along with these free races...

  • 11.50 Lingfield
  • 12.40 Newbury
  • 5.15 Chelmsford
  • 6.30 Dundalk

And I suppose I really should look at the three H4C runners...

Kentucky Kingdom's record here is all over course and distance with finishes of 2145113 which includes form of...

  • 2136 under today's jockey
  • 4513 at Class 5
  • Highest winning mark of 67, 3rd of 13 (4 lengths) on his last visit off 71 and runs off 70 here

Bayston Hill's 12 Chelmsford runs have also all been over course and distance (inc this race last year) finishing 312311112828, including...

  • 3123122 at Class 5
  • 3111228 under today's jockey
  • Highest win mark 67, 8th of 11 (7.5 lengths) off 71 last visit, now runs off 70

Central City has just seven previous visits finishing 4214613, including...

  • 14613 over course and distance
  • 461 at Class 5 (has won here at Class 4)
  • Highest win here off 74 (twice), 3rd of 9 (1 length) off 77 on last visit and now off 69 with a 7lb claimer who hasn't ridden him here before.

All of the above results are contained in their overall A/W handicap form, which is documented in Instant Expert...

...where Central City looks weakest on standard going, but strongest on Class 5 form (and has a Class 4 success here). Kentucky Kingdom has a poor Class 5 record on the A/W and is closely matched with Bayston Hill on going, track and distance. In fact there's very little between the three of them on distance. Central City is now 5lb lower than his last win and has a 7lb claimer on board, but the other pair are 3lbs above their last win.

They're all drawn in the upper 36% of the draw with Kentucky/Central side by side in 9/10 and Bayston runs second widest of the field out in box 13. The draw stats don't actually show a massive bias here, which isn't a great surprise as 1m2f is a decent enough trip for a horse to overcome whatever draw he/she gets...

I suppose, ideally, you wouldn't want that high sector draw based on the above, but an IV of 0.84 isn't disastrous although it's worse news for Bayston Hill than the other two. He might need to ensure his rce tactics are spot on to get involved and we're advised that...

...hold=up horses struggle, but other than that it's actually better to sit back off the pace, so let's check how our trio have been running of late...

...which says Kentucky Kingdom might struggle from the back of the field and that Central City is probably best positioned of the other two.

Summary

Nice and quick today and based purely on what's above, I'd want these three in the following order...

Central City / Kentucky Kingdom / Bayston Hill

I actually think that all three could get placed with most bookies paying four places and at odds of 16/1, 8/1 and 14/1 (Hills at 4.20pm), I'd not deter you from having a punt on any of them, but I certainly prefer the first two. Central City looks really well weighted here and if his 7lb claimer gets to grips with the task ahead, that 16/1 pricetag might look very generous indeed.

As for one of them winning the race, why not? They've every chance, they know what's ahead of them and I'm sure they'll all go well. Dangers are expected to be the 3/1 fav Vocatus and/or the 8/1 Maysong.

Good Luck!

Racing Bulletin for 25/11/2021

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Thurles

Good

12:05 12:35 13:05 13:35 14:10 14:40 15:10
Lingfield Park

Good to Soft

12:15 12:45 13:15 13:45 14:17 14:47 15:17
Taunton

Good

12:55 13:25 13:55 14:25 14:55 15:25
Wolverhampton

Standard

14:05 14:35 15:05 15:35 16:05 16:35 17:05 17:35
Chelmsford

Standard

16:20 16:50 17:20 17:50 18:20 18:50 19:20 19:50
10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards

Latest News, Tips and Features

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Instant Expert for ALL races

Good luck!


Racing Insights, 25th November 2021

Thursday's feature of the day is full access for all readers to the Instant Expert tab on the racecards. This is by far the most popular geegeez racecard tab, because it is able to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size.

It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

And we make this open to all readers for all races every Thursday, including our free ones, which will be...

  • 1.35 Thurles
  • 3.35 Wolverhampton
  • 6.20 Chelmsford
  • 7.50 Chelmsford

The third of those races looks the best quality (on paper, at least), so I'm going have a crack at the 6.20 Chelmsford. Only 6 run, but it's a Class 2, 3yo+ handicap worth almost £10k. The trip is a left handed seven furlongs on standard going polytrack and here are your runners and riders etc...

...where on recent finishing positions alone, Trumble looks to be the form horse, but he is stepping up two classes, as is Papa Stour. Mehmento, on the other hand, has had three Group 3 runs this season and now drops down for his handicap debut, whereas Mum's Tipple made his handicap bow LTO and will seek to improve upon being second last of sixteen. Corvair has a fairly consistent string of recent form (albeit all losses) behind him and now makes a yard debut for the out of form Robert Cowell after leaving Team Crisford. All bar Alexander James have at least one win at this trip, whilst Trumble has won here over 7f. Papa Stour has wins at both track and trip but not at the same time.

Feature of the day, Instant Expert, will give us a unique snapshot of how this bunch have performed previously under similar A/W conditions...

..and in handicaps...

Trumble, the form horse, probably looks the pick of them based on A/W form, but he's now two classes and 7lbs higher than his three length success over course and distance earlier this month. Corvair is only two pounds higher than his last win, but he has lost eleven races since then and that was back in early March 2020! Mehmento looks interesting despite having no A/W handicap form, whilst Papa Stour's 0 from 8 at this grade is a worry, even if he is 3lbs lower than his last win.

We've got a left handed 7f here and as is often the case on such tracks, stall 1 does pretty well in small field contests, but the place to be is probably in the 3 to 5 region, giving yourself a better racing angle towards the bend and this is borne out by the stats below...

...which could be good news for the likes of Corvair, Mehmento and Mum's Tipple, but in a small field like this, it's quite possible that race tactics aka pace will play a more important role in how this race unfolds. Chelmsford is known for favouring front runners and this article explains in far more/better detail than I ever could, but in graphical/numerical terms...

...leaders make the frame in almost half of their runs and the further back you run, the further back you tend to finish! And with that in mind, it's not a massive leap to come to the conclusion that a 3 to 6 draw for a front-runner might be very profitable, as shown below...

We know the draw already, of course, but what about running styles? Well, here's the geegeez advantage, because we log them for every runner from every race and here are the pace scores (4=led, 3=prominent, 2=mid-div, 1=held-up) for our six runners...

...where we've one confirmed front runner (Mehmento) and one (Trumble) that won't be too far off the pace. Not such good news for Mum's Tipple and/or Alexander James, though.

At this point, you've probably already jumped ahead of me and you're checking where Mehmento is drawn and possibly rubbing your hands at the fact he's got a plum draw in box 4, so what we'll do now is to put the runners in draw order and drop them onto that pace/draw heat map, as follows...

...which gives us Mehmento, the well drawn front-runner and Trumble, the form horse as the two we should probably focus on.

Summary

In an ideal world, we'll get a 1-2 with these two pace-setters, but who wins? Well, from a value perspective, you'd want the 13/2 Mehmento to prevail over the 11/8 favourite trumble (prices from hills, the only open book at 3.50pm), but can/will he?

Well he only made his debut 10 months go and has won three of six starts, including two from two on the A/W. They were both Class 5 non-handicap affairs at Southwell in Jan/Feb, before four runs on the turf at Class 1, which saw him finish as a runner-up, beaten by a neck in a group 3 at Newbury prior to landing a Listed race at Epsom in mid-June, but was well beaten in two more Gr 3 contests since. He's had a bit of a rest, a wind op and drops down in class here for his handicap debut.

He's got a mark of 104 here, but did run to a level of 108 earlier in the year, so if the rest/operation has the desired effect, that price of 13/2 might look massive tomorrow.

As for the fav, Trumble, he's two from five this year after an indifferent start to the year where he was last of nine, sixth of seven and fifth of six prior to a 106 day break from which he returned to win here over 6f off a reduced mark of 78 and he followed that up next/last time out with a 3 length C&D success here 19 days ago off a mark of 85. The runner-up that day has raced again off the same mark and could only manage to finish 6th of 9, so it might not have been a great race that Trumble won and another 7lb rise to a mark of 92 certainly leaves very little room for error.

There's probably not going to be much between them, but I'd rather be on at 13/2 than 11/8, I'd rather be on a leader than a chaser here at Chelmsford, I prefer the #4 draw to the #6 and I prefer a horse who has achieved a higher past performance than one needing 7lbs better than his previous best, so I'm siding with Mehmento at 13/2 ahead of the 11/8 fav Trumble.

Newbury Trends (Fri 26th Nov 21)

It's DAY ONE of the Newbury Ladbrokes Trophy Meeting this Friday and we’ve four LIVE races on ITV to take in that include the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle - a race that we've seen 13 of the last 19 winners aged between 7-9 years-old.

As always, here at Geegeez, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and free tips.

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RTV/ITV3)

 

12.40 – Ladbrokes Committed To Safer Gambling Novices' Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV3

13/14 – Aged 5 or older
13/14 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Favourites placed in the top 2
10/14 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
8/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/14 – Yet to win over fences
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (inc last 2 runnings)
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2
Champ (4/5 fav) won this race in 2019

1.15 - Play Ladbrokes 5-A-Side On Football ‘National Hunt’ Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV3

10/10 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/10 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 - Had run under NH Rules between 1-3 times
9/10 - Between 0-1 NH wins
8/10 - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/10 - Irish bred
7/10 - Favourites placed in the top 3
6/10 - Had won a NH Flat race before
6/10 - Had run in the last 4 weeks
4/10 - Had run at Newbury before
4/10 - Won last time out
4/10 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/10 - Ridden by Nico de Boinville
3/10 - Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
In recent years, My Drogo (2020), Lostintranslation (2017) and Buveur D’Air (2015) have won this race

 

2.25 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f187y ITV3

13/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
13/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Aged 9 or younger
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
11/14 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
11/14 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/14 – Rated between 131 and 140
9/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/14 – Trained by Dan Skelton
0/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m52y ITV3

16/19 – Grade One winner over hurdles
15/19 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
14/19 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
14/19 – Placed favourites
13/19 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
13/19 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
13/19 – Ran at either Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
12/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/19 – Winning favourites
10/19 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
9/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – French bred
8/19 – Returned odds-on in the betting
7/19 – Went onto win that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
7/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/19 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 12 renewals)
Thyme Hill (7/2) won this race in 2020
Paisley Park (8/15 fav) won this race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.35 – Play Ladbrokes 1-2 Free On Football Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m52y ITV3

13/14 – Placed 5th or better last time out
13/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
10/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/14 – Irish-bred winners
8/14 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
8/14 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Trained by David Pipe
Hill Sixteen won this race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

 

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Racing Bulletin for 24/11/2021

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Hereford

Good

12:30 13:00 13:35 14:10 14:40 15:10 15:40
Wetherby

Good

12:45 13:15 13:45 14:20 14:50 15:20
Dundalk

Standard

14:00 14:30 15:00 15:30 16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30
Kempton Park

Standard / Slow

16:45 17:15 17:45 18:15 18:45 19:15 19:45 20:15
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Latest News, Tips and Features

Today's Feature of the Day is...

Trainer Statistics report

Good luck!


Racing Insights, 24th November 2021

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

We think that the TS report is so helpful that we make it freely available to all readers every Wednesday, a day where winners can often be hard to find and this is in addition to our usual selection of free races, which will be...

  • 12.30 Hereford
  • 2.00 Dundalk
  • 5.15 Kempton
  • 5.30 Dundalk

As is often the case, my own personal settings for the TS report...

...haven't generated very many horses to consider, just two in fact!

So, from 14-day handicap form...

...and from course 1-year handicap form...

...we've got two look at, starting with Josie Abbing, a 7yr old who runs in a 4-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 2m3½f (4327 yards) on Good ground, shown on your cards as the 2.40 Hereford...

We know from above that Fergal O'Brien is in great form with 10 winners and 7 placers from 30 handicappers, but a quick dive into them shows that they include...

  • 7/21 over hurdles
  • 7/17 in fields of 8 runners or fewer
  • 6/11 at Class 3
  • 4/9 with 7yr olds
  • 4/15 over hurdles
  • and 3/7 with females
    BUT...
  • just 2/13 at trips shorter than 2m4f
  • and 0/4 with today's jockey.

Josie Abbing has only made two starts for Fergal O'Brien, but was a half length runner-up on yard debut over this course and distance six weeks ago. She was sent of as the 11/20 fav that day as she raced off today's mark of 100, but was beaten by 9 lengths on unsuitably soft ground last time out.

Of her handicap hurdle form where's has won 2 of 16, Instant Expert tells us...

...both her wins have been on good ground (she made the frame in both Gd to Fm runs, in case it dries out), she's 0/2 at Class 3 (both wins were at Class 5), she's 0/2 here (but was that 0.5 lengths runner-up over C&D on her last visit) and she's some 9lbs higher than her last win 9and a stone more than her other hcp hrd success), so not much to get excited about here.

She's a confirmed hold-up horse, which hasn't been too bad a tactic at Hereford over the years, but leaders have fared best and based on her last two runs (both wins) Nikap might blast her rivals out straight from the start giving Josie too much to do...

There is a danger that all three might go off too quickly for her, forcing her to get too involved too soon.

*

Now we head over the water for a rare Insights foray into Irish racing, where the 3 yr old filly, No Browsin takes on 13 rivals (Hell Left Loose is a reserve) in a 45-65 rated, 3yo+ A/W (polytrack) handicap over a left handed 7f and here's the card for the 2.30 Dundalk...

We've already seen that trainer Sarah Lynam has 8 winners and 8 further placers from just 23 handicappers here at Dundalk over the last year and this 34.8% strike rate is not only excellent but is also in stark contrast to her overall 7% strike rate (19/270) and her 8/23 here over the past 12 months include of relevance today...

  • 7/20 in fields of 12-14 runners
  • and 2/6 with females
    BUT...
  • 0/2 over 7f
  • no 3 yr old runners
  • and no rides by today's jockey, Billy Lee but at least the rider is in good form elsewhere.

No Browsin is very lightly raced so far, having been seen just four times to date. She was 3rd of 14 over C&D on debut 11 months ago, beaten by just half a length and a short head, but that has turned out to be a poor maiden with just 3 winners from 84 races since.

She took five months off after debut and then struggled in two races on the turf at Cork in the summer, before taking another 161 days off prior to re-appearing here at Dundalk a week ago, where she was beaten by less than 3 lengths over 6f, finding no extra late on. It's highly possible that she needed the run and will improve here, though.

With a formline of 3057, Instant Expert isn't going to tell us very much at all from a win perspective, so here are her stats from a place point of view...

...again, not a great deal to go on, but she has at least had some relative A/W success already. She makes a handicap debut off a mark of 62 here, meaning she's going to be carrying top weight. As she has precious little form of her own, to be top rated suggests a poor contest against many runners well tried and failed. In fact, the most successful horse in the field is the 8yr old Fit For Function with an 8.5% strike rate (7 from 82), but the rest of the field are just 13/273 (4.76% SR) combined, which speaks volumes.

No Browsin is drawn in stall 8 of the 14 runners and a middle draw has been successful enough in the past...

... and even if her particular stall doesn't have the best win record...

...I'd say she was in the right area to start from. pace is going to be very important, but with just two A/W and two turf runs, it's quite possible that she hasn't yet fully adopted a running style, but she scored a 2 and a 3 on her two A/W runs to date...

...and if she runs to that mid-div/prominent position again, then I'd advise the latter rather than the former, based on past races here...

...if she can crack on with it, she'd have more chance, but I'd imagine this pair will be setting the fractions...

Summary

The bookies have Josie Abbing as 9/4 second favourite, but the Geegeez SR figures have her as third best of our and I'd sadly be inclined to agree with the SR. The 11/8 fav Nikap reverts to the smaller obstacles today, but should be running away with this one and I'd expect the 4/1 Golden Emblem to be the biggest danger.

As for No Browsin, she could be something but she could be nothing. On the plus die, she doesn't have a string of failures already behind her, but then again she ahs no experience and makes a handicap debut off what looks a tough mark. She's drawn midfield and I'd not be surprised if she finishes midfield (or first or last etc). This isn't a race I'd want to get too involved in (not just because it's an Irish one). That said, if I was to play, I'd want to find a firm paying 4 places, if not 5 so I could have a small E/W punt on the 5 yr old mare, Pimstrel, assuming I could get 14/1 or bigger, that is!

But of our two possibles we started with : NO BETS.

 

 

Racing Bulletin for 23/11/2021

Today's Racing

Click on course names to view our course guides. Click on race times to access that racecard. Times highlighted in yellow are free races of the day.

Punchestown

Yielding

12:00 12:30 13:00 13:35 14:05 14:35 15:05 15:35
Southwell

Good

12:20 12:50 13:25 13:55 14:25 14:55 15:25
Sedgefield

Good

12:40 13:10 13:45 14:15 14:45 15:15
Wolverhampton

Standard

16:00 16:30 17:00 17:30 18:00 18:30 19:00 19:30
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Featured Article

Dealing with Non-Triers

Today's Feature of the Day is...

The Shortlist report

Good luck!


Racing Insights, 23rd November 2021

Some of Geegeez' features are only available to Gold subscribers (if you've not tried it, you really should take a low-priced trial to see what's included), but we do open parts of the service up each day to give all readers a feel for the service. To this end, we give free access to one Gold feature and a selections of races each day.

For Tuesday, those races are set to be...

  • 3.35 Punchestown
  • 4.30 Wolverhampton
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...whilst our feature of the day is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It's a colour-coded report that covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both the current and the next day’s racing...

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is (and has always been) that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it does continue to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and/or its odds might imply. And here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

Mondammej is the more interesting of the two Shortlist horses and he runs in one of our free races, so it makes sense for me to focus there today. In fairness, it's a decent standard of race and whilst Mondammej is likely to be fairly short in the market and there are only seven runners, we might find reasons to lay him or we might find ourselves an E/W pick.

So, without further ado, let's head towards the 6.00 Wolverhampton, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed 5f on standard tapeta and it's worth almost £10k to one of these...

My own initial thoughts were that Mondammej and Exalted Angel might be the ones to watch or even Venturous based on past exploits, whilst the likes of  Royal Birth & Marnie James look weakest. The latter is the only one without a win in their recent formline too and he's up in class despite finishing 10th of 12 last time out. He has, however, won over this trip in the past, but so have all his rivals.

Royal Birth has also won here at Wolverhampton, whilst Venturous, Mondammej and Fizzy Feet have all won over this course and distance, but the latter is also up in class after finishing last of 8 last time out, which is a negative based on form and class rise, but also because he hasn't been seen for over 16 weeks.

Today's feature is, of course, The Shortlist and we know that Mondammej scores highly there and we can put those Shortlist colours into numbers via Instant Expert...

...where Mondammej looks the one to beat and probably Venturous as best of the rest, whilst more specifically on the A/W...

...I'd probably side with the same pair with Blue de Vega looking weakest.

The draw could play a part here, with there being a left handed turn in the middle of such a short race and what we've found is that both high and low draws do pretty well at the expense of those sandwiched in the middle...

...meaning that you'd probably not want to be in stalls 3, 4 or 5 (not good for Exalted Angel, Mondammej or Fizzy Feet), based on the stall by stall analysis...

There is, however, a school of thought that if you're good enough and you approach the race in the right way, then your tactics might well help you overcome the draw and the pace stats for such a race say that it's best to lead and set the pace, but prominent/mid-div runners do OK and all that's because hold-up runners really struggle...

With those numbers in mind, here's how these seven have approached their last four outings...

...which is a reversal of everything else we've seen so far. The two I've been leaning towards, Mondammej & Venturous are going to have to come from a long way back and I suppose the hope is that they drag each other into the contest from the upper half of the draw, yet when we look at how the pace and draw work with each other, Venturous is shown in a far better light...

...with only the previously maligned Royal Birth seeming better equipped from just outside Venturous.

Summary

We started with Mondammej, he's the form horse, he's the Shortlist horse, but is poorly drawn and his hold-up running style might not be the best approach, but his ability and speed mean he's still a contender, as winners rarely tick all the boxes.

Venturous was one I thought from the outset could be well suited and he showed up well on Instant Expert, draw and pace/draw. His hold-up style, like Mondammej, hasn't always worked for other horses here, but aside from that he looks to have a real chance and if I was to add one more from the pack to join my two shortlisted horses, it would probably be Exalted Angel. He's well drawn, will be quick away, has a good A/W record and drops in class.

So, that's my three from seven...

  • Exalted Angel was admittedly beaten by over 7 lengths last time out, but that was a Listed race at Lingfield when he faed in the last of six furlongs and he now drops down in class and trip. He was second (beaten by a head) off this mark back in April and although still pretty high in the weights, could go close with a similar effort.
  • Mondammej actually blows a bit hot and cold. Three wins from his last five have been interspersed by runs finishing 14th of 16 and last of 21 and prior to this run of form, he was winless in eight. That said, he's always there or thereabouts on the A/W with 2 wins and 3 places from 7 and on paper is the best in the race.
  • Venturous has six wins and two places from 14 on tapeta, loves the surface. Yes, he's disadvantaged by coming late, but it's not a big field and he's well drawn to avoid trouble and having made the frame 6 times from 10 over 5f on this surface (winning four times), he seems to have the measure of what's needed. He's proven at this grade, but might just be carrying too much weight.

Mondammej is the best in the race on his day, but is inconsistent and isn't favoured by pace/draw stats etc. That said, he gets weight from the other two I've shortlisted and should just about prevail. Sadly he's priced at 7/4 and that's no value in my opinion, so I'll leave him alone today. Of the other two, I prefer Venturous based on his past successes and at 10/1 with Hills, I can't not back him E/W.

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