Previews, tips and trends for major horse racing fixtures across the UK. Detailed day-by-day reports and info on horses, races, courses, events and more.

Champion Hurdle 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips

The opening day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival can boast four Grade 1 contests, with the undisputed highlight of that quartet being the Champion Hurdle.

Run over an extended two miles, the Champion Hurdle is the ultimate test of speed and agility and its roll of honour is a veritable who's who of the great and good of the winter sport: the likes of Persian War, Bula, Sea Pigeon, Comedy Of Errors, Night Nurse, Monksfield, See You Then, Hardy Eustace, Hurricane Fly, Buveur d'Air and, of course, Istabraq, are all multiple winners of the Champion Hurdle. And, this year, Honeysuckle will bid to add her name to that illustrious list.

An interesting fact is that, between the Champion Hurdle's inception in 1927 and Flakey Dove's win in 1994, there were just three triumphant mares; and, since 2016 - six seasons - there have also been three victorious mares! Annie Power won that year, followed by Epatante in 2020 and Honeysuckle last term. The last named is bidding to make it an incredible four from seven for girl power, and she is currently considered by those lovely bookie types to be more likely than not to do just that.

But is Honeysuckle unstoppable? And, if she is, is there another way to access this mouth-watering contest from a wagering perspective? Let us begin by taking instruction from the recent past.

Champion Hurdle Trends

Such is the fluid nature of training patterns and Anglo-Irish primacy that delving too far back can become counter-productive. So we'll keep that in mind while pondering results since 2008, the last fourteen years.

Age

You can win a Champion Hurdle aged ten. Or eleven, or twelve. But it's now 41 years since Sea Pigeon recorded back-to-back victories as a double-digit aged veteran. No horse older than nine has won since, and only three nine-year-olds have scored in that time, too. So this is a young horse's game.

Indeed, as the table above demonstrates, 12 of the last 14 Champion Hurdlers were aged five, six or seven. Honeysuckle (and also Epatante, Appreciate It, and Abacadabras) are eight, Sharjah is nine, and good old (really quite old now) Buveur D'Air is eleven.

Looking deeper down the pecking orders reveals that in place terms, six is the sweet spot while seven-year-olds also hold their own against numerical representation at least. Those aged six managed to return a profit at starting price for both win and each way bets.

Official Ratings

The average winning official rating (OR) of the last 14 Champion Hurdlers is a shade under 164. But the chart below shows that, after a period of relative strength in the division between 2008 and 2015, elite performances have since been hard to come by.

It might be that the seven pound gender allowance mares receive from colts and geldings impacts these trendlines but the fact is that low 160's horses have been very competitive in recent Champion Hurdles.

Starting Price

There are a few surprises in terms of the odds of Champion Hurdle winners but it is also true that the expected ones generally prevail.

Natural selection dictates that the shorter odds brackets equate to green blocks on the right hand side: so far, so what? Perhaps what this table really brings home is how often it proves to be folly taking on a strong fancy at the head of the market. It may well be the case in 2022.

Happily, even if that does come to pass, there are other ways to play the race as we'll get to.

UK vs Ireland

Irish eyes were smiling last year as Honeysuckle landed odds of 11/10 by an easy six-plus lengths. And Irish-trained horses filled out the next four positions, too, a lop-sided result that might have been even worse had Abacadabras, Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle scorer on his next start, not fallen early in the race.

In 2020, things were brighter for the home defence, with favourite Epatante winning. But the Irish were massed thereafter, filling out positions second to fifth and seventh. 2019 saw an Irish 1-2-4, but in 2018 Buveur D'Air restored a little pride for the British team. Of course, Ireland's squad claimed second, third and fourth.

Almost every year, the Irish raiders outperform their physical numbers; again, there is selection bias in that the expense of traveling must be vaguely vindicated by a horse's prospects in a race not typically infiltrated by the dreaded 'social runners'.

Since 2008, Irish-trained horses have won six of 14 renewals (43% of winners) and placed on 16 occasions (38% of placers), from 41 starters (24% of starters). Ireland is dominant in the Champion Hurdle just now and that trend is very likely to continue.

Who fits the bill?

History suggests we're looking for a young - seven or younger - Irish-trained hurdler with a rating at least in the lower 160's and priced up as having some sort of a chance. Given that the first four in the ante post betting lists fail on at least one of these criteria makes me nervous but, for what it's worth, here are those that seem to fit...

Incredibly, none of the 23 entries tick those boxes.

The five-year-olds are all rated below the requisite standard at this stage: when Katchit won aged five in 2008 he was officially rated 159 and when Espoir D'Allen scored in 2019 he was 162 OR. Zanahiyr is actually rated 159 by the Irish handicapper so might be the pick. Or maybe Aspire Tower, last seen trailing in as lanterne rouge in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle nine months ago, and a precarious wagering conveyance outside of the odds range. Or, more realistically, we're looking at an older than usual winner, one of Honeysuckle, Appreciate It, Sharjah or Epatante.

Frankly, the trend does not appear to be our friend on this occasion...

Champion Hurdle Pace Scenarios / Pace Map

As I demonstrated in this Cheltenham Gold Cup preview, the way a race is run can make a huge difference to the chance of its competitors, in either a positive or negative way. Here's how the 23 entries shape up run style wise, based on an average scoring of their early position in their most recent three UK/Irish starts.

The likelihood is of an even to strong gallop with each of the trio in the 'Led' column capable of sitting behind the speed if it's too frenetic.

Historically, only Ruby Walsh has managed to take his rivals tape to lolly, a feat he achieved in consecutive renewals in 2015/16. Since then, more patient tactics have been the order of the hour, all subsequent winners except Buveur D'Air (tracked leaders) and almost all placed horses (Darver Star, tracked leaders, Melon and Petit Mouchoir, both led, aside) coming from midfield or further back.

Appreciate It may try to dominate from the front but an even tempo ought to inconvenience very few. If they go a beat quicker, the finish will likely be played out by the more patiently ridden runners.

2022 Champion Hurdle Form Guide

After a sizable dollop of conjecturing, I feel we're largely back where we started with neither trends nor run styles/pace expected to be the kingmaking component: the best horse should win. And, though one or two have mildly ascendant profiles, the best horse can be judged from the pages of the form book.

The best horse in this field, in receipt of seven pounds anyway, is indubitably Honeysuckle. She is one of those mares about whom the feeling is that she doesn't really need the weight concession, and that if she didn't get it, she'd be a step closer to the pantheon of the sport. She's a winter game Enable.

Honeysuckle is a winner of all fourteen of her lifetime starts - a point to point and then, under Rules, thirteen hurdle races - the last eight straight of which have been in Grade 1 company, seven of them against the men. She sometimes doesn't win by far but she does always win; and, barring incident or accident, hint or allegation (to butcher Paul Simon), she will win again. Her record is incredible, from two miles to two and a half, good ground to heavy, big fields or small fields, geldings or mares; and, though I cannot back her at 4/6, I certainly don't want to lay her.

Even if you, like me, think Honeysuckle is comfortably the most likely winner and not necessarily the wrong price in the context, there are ways to bet the Champion Hurdle. Each way is probably not optimal given that there's a fair to good chance we'd be lobbing half the stake - the win half, for the avoidance of doubt - in the bin. No, I don't want to bet each way; I want to bet in the 'without Honeysuckle' market.

Take out this queen and we are left with a fascinating puzzle where they bet bigger than 3/1 the field and each way three places. Game on!

There may be a dearth of credible rivals to Honeysuckle, but within the ranks of the (presumed) minor podium contenders we have two groups: those which need to step forward and may be capable of so doing, and those for whom excuses must be proffered and accepted.

In the "progressive?" camp are those glam rockers, Appreciate It and the Five Year Olds. All sparkle and shouty 1's to their name and form profiles, and with fan boys and girls aplenty; but, like the lyrics of a Kiss song, how much substance can be found when you get past the eye liner and leotards? [Sorry, I genuinely have no idea where that analogy went, or why]

Appreciate It is a substantial creature, and he did blitz his opposition when barrelling clear in last year's Supreme. He was also second in the Champion Bumper of 2020, so no fears about track or trip or ground. But where has AI been hiding? We've not seen him since day one of Cheltenham last year, though he is entered in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) early next month. Even if he ran very well there, perhaps getting close to Honeysuckle - assuming she runs, too - he can't shorten much from his current 7/1 quote unless beating the champ.

The five-year-olds in the CH picture are a bigger crew than normal this season, at this stage at least, and it seems likely that some will be shaken out of the reckoning 'twixt now and then. Zanahiyr, as mentioned already, is the most plausible on ratings. He's 159 on Irish official figures, and has mixed it with Sharjah on his last two starts, finishing second each time. He did get closer to the dual Champion Hurdle runner up on the more recent attempt, within a neck no less, and may have a third tilt in the Irish Champion.

But Zanahiyr was only fourth in the Triumph Hurdle last term when sent off 11/8 favourite, that being his only overseas jaunt. It's hard to say whether it was the travel or the course constitution or both, or if he just had an off day; but what is easier to level is that he has looked a touch exposed against established open Grade 1 sorts this season for all that he's narrowing the gap and steadily elevating his rating at the same time.

Quilixios won the Triumph last year and is in the frame for the Champion this campaign, having been 'Pricewised'. But last year he arrived at Cheltenham unbeaten in three spins, while since then he's been beaten in three spins. I have huge respect from trainer Henry de Bromhead as a target trainer, and Quilixios is another who could advance his claims in the Irish Champion, but he's not improved since the Triumph, from which level of form a stone or so is normally needed to challenge on the biggest stage.

The horse to bash him the last twice is Teahupoo (no, me neither; actually, I just googled it and, apparently, it's a village on the southwestern coast of Tahiti - so now we both know). He's four from four for Gordon Elliott - was beaten into second when trained by Sneezy Foster, if you believe that was a different regime - and has looked a better horse than Quilixios this term for all that he made hard work of it on heavy at Limerick. He's also not raced on quicker than yielding and we're not seeing torrents of rain this year to date. The Irish 'capper has him on 149, Quilixios on 150, at time of writing: neither mark is good enough, but one or both may improve after DubFez (that's seriously not a cool amalgam).

For the Brits, the five-year-olds are headed up, I think, by Triumph runner-up Adagio, who ran a bold race that day, and again twice subsequently, at Aintree (G1) and Cheltenham (Greatwood Handicap). A three-time bridesmaid in his most recent efforts, then, but all of them admirable. The Festival run needs little explanation, the Aintree effort could have been better but for a howler at the last hurdle, and the Cheltenham silver, off top weight in a 19-runner skirmish on seasonal bow, was valiant. Still, he's only rated 152 by the British handicapper and that leaves him a good bit to find even allowing for the more lenient marks which are a feature of this season in Blighty.

Adagio's vanquisher at Aintree was the theretofore unbeaten Monmiral; but that chap blotted the notional copybook big time when miles off the pace in the G1 Fighting Fifth. That was his seasonal starter and first try against seasoned Grade 1'ers, but still, he has a fair bit to prove at this juncture and no immediate entries in which to prove it.

Tritonic has a mountain to climb to reverse form with Epatante on their Christmas Hurdle running; and the novices Saint Felicien and six-year-old My Mate Mozzie don't look good enough yet, though both will have a chance to further their claims before the Festival.

And then we have the Aging Rockers - the "talented but fallible" group - headed up by Sharjah and Epatante. Sharjah is nine now, something that couldn't prevent Hurricane Fly claiming a second Champion Hurdle or Rooster Booster a first; but it was at least a contributory factor in the defeats of Harchibald, Binocular, My Tent Or Yours and The New One, all of whom had podium 'previous' in the race. From that list, only My Tent Or Yours was able to finish higher than fifth, running up to Annie Power in 2016.

Sharjah is a strong travelling sort but occasionally a bit quirky at the serious end as his reluctant (to these peepers) score in the Matheson showed; there he tanked up to the girths of Zanahiyr before cocking his jaw somewhat and sticking his head in the air somewhat. Nevertheless, he did win that Grade 1, and for a record fourth time. Moreover, in his time he's amassed most of a million quids in prize money - around £838,800 to be fairly precise, which is only about forty grand shy of Honey's total pot - and must have given his owners untold joy. And, since his 2020 Matheson success, he's been beaten only by Honeysuckle (three times) and Abacadabras. It's hard not to be impressed with his overall record in spite of a few niggling doubts.

Epatante is a former Champion Hurdler, beating Sharjah into second two years ago. She was arguably a little below par last season but still ran third in the Champion, this time Sharjah winning their personal duel. Her usual Grade 1 Christmas romp went to plan this term, where last campaign it did not, and she goes to Cheltenham still only an eight-year-old: that may be knocking on a touch in the context of this race's profile but she's no old-timer. She's a little bit the forgotten horse in spite of winning two Grade 1's this season (one, in the Fighting Fifth where possibly under-cooked, a dead heat, and, granted, not really taking the eye out at Kempton with her finishing effort); and she has improved on her earlier season form in both of the last two seasons in the Champion Hurdle. I expect she will again bring her best to the Festival party.

Another in this camp is Abacadabras, also eight, though one whose campaign hardly screams podium finish, ostensibly at least. Good enough to win the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle after an uncharacteristic capsize in the Champion Hurdle twelve months ago, the Gordon Elliott-trained son of Davidoff has form of 435 since. But a closer inspection shows that the '4' was when very possibly over the top at Punchestown's Festival having already danced in the Cotswolds and in Liverpool that spring; the '3' was a creditable first run of term behind Honeysuckle, and the '5' last time was when appearing not to stay upped to three miles in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle.

Lest we forget, Abacadabras was only a neck behind Shishkin in the Supreme of 2020 and looked a proper G1 horse at Aintree a year later. His overall profile may be a tad patchy but on his day he's very good.

Finally, I think Aspire Tower deserves a mention. Last seen when apparently injuring himself in the Punchestown Festival Champion Hurdle in April 2021, he'd previously run fourth in the Cheltenham equivalent, as a five-year-old. As a four-year-old at Cheltenham, he'd run second to Burning Victory (would have been third, of course, but for Goshen's uber-misfortune). It's a long old absence to overcome but the fact he retains this entry means he must be close to peak fitness; that said, he doesn't feature in the entries for the DRF and presumably connections would want to get a run into him before the big March Tuesday.

2022 Champion Hurdle Tips

The win market is rightly dominated by Honeysuckle, whose race this is to lose on all known form and in what looks a relatively weak division currently. Because she has such an overwhelming hold on the probabilities, each way betting makes little appeal. Better, I think, to play in the 'without Honeysuckle' market. That makes it a 3/1 the field affair and, in truth, fiendishly difficult. It is also the case that the betting order and shape will likely take an almighty shakeup after the Irish Champion Hurdle, the entries for which are below.

An over- or under-performance by any of these will see their odds fluctuate and, while current wisdom implies a Honeysuckle-Sharjah-Appreciate It and/or the Five-Year-Olds 1-2-3, reality may paint a different outcome.

Meanwhile, back at Cheltenham, plenty of the Champion Hurdle entries are simply not rated at the level that suggests prospects in all but a black swan scenario. The ones who are, Honeysuckle aside, are Sharjah, Epatante, Appreciate It, Zanahiyr, Aspire Tower and perhaps Abacadabras.

The logical play, and favourite at 10/3 in this market, is Sharjah and I couldn't argue that his chance of winning with/without Honeysuckle is less than 23%. It might be a little more than that without screaming value, I just didn't really like the way he finished his race at Leopardstown last time.

Epatante's back class and effective if unspectacular Grade 1 form this term, allied to the seven pound mares' allowance, makes her interesting at 11/2. She's lacked a bit of sparkle so far but could be sitting on a better effort: she's already achieved more than many of her rivals.

Appreciate It is the unknown having not raced since the Supreme Novices' Hurdle ten months ago as I write. If he shows up at the DRF next month that will be highly instructive, and I'd rather take a shorter price after that race than speculate on him before it. Moreover, his usual bold front-running style won't necessarily lend itself to the projected race setup.

Zanahiyr's talent is fully priced into his quote of 6/1. It's about the same odds as are available for Epatante and she's won two Grade 1's this season and run 1-3 in Champion Hurdles. Aspire Tower is not really playable in anything but a non-runner no bet market (and might be the exception to the 'don't bet each way against Honeysuckle' mantra at 40/1 NRNB, Betfred).

Abacadabras keeps drawing my eye, daftly perhaps, but he's a price to legitimise a bob or two each way in the without's. He's a strong stayer at the trip and will introduce himself quite late in the drama if he's good enough. 20/1 each way without the favourite isn't the worst approach to a borderline inscrutable puzzle, though it is possible he might skip Cheltenham and head to Aintree. As such, I'm waiting for the non-runner no bet proviso (and potentially a shorter price) to play.

Things will be a lot clearer after the Irish Champion Hurdle on 6th February, and wagering any Irish runner prior to that risks devaluing the position several weeks before Cheltenham. The one horse whose price will not move much, if at all, is Epatante and she looks a most logical and reasonable each way 'bet to nothing' (if only such a thing existed).

2022 Champion Hurdle Suggestion

1pt e/w Epatante without Honeysuckle at 11/2 (1/5 1-2-3) Hills

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2022 Preview, Trends, Tips

With just two months to go until the Cheltenham Festival 2022, thoughts begin to turn to those high class clashes, none more so perhaps than the Blue Riband itself, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A number of contenders that ran over the Christmas and New Year period are slated to head straight to Cheltenham so now seems an opportune time to have a rifle through recent - and slightly less recent - history in search of an ante post play.

In this post, I'll cover some Gold Cup trends, potentially favoured run styles, and of course the actual form of those with chances and a few without much hope!

Let's start with some historical context.

Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

Trends seem to have acquired something of a bad rap in recent years, perhaps because factoids are taken out of context a little too often. But the reality is that history is our best guide to the future and, especially in top class races, a certain profile tends to come to the fore time and again. The Gold Cup is a race that places a premium on stamina, class, jumping and a touch of speed. Given the undulating nature of Cleeve Hill, against which the racecourse is set, contenders need also to possess balance: not for nothing is this considered such a champion's test. What follows will flesh out the importance of some of those attributes in numbers.

Official Rating

The best staying chasers in training tend to line up for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and only those towards the peak of the ratings pyramid normally prevail.

With the exception of 152-rated Lord Windermere, who just got the best of a bizarre five-way scrap up the hill in 2014, every other Gold Cup winner since 2007 has been rated at least 164. The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171.

 

Starting Price

The trouble with highly rated winners of the Gold Cup is that their rating is testament to their ability and that, naturally, is not missed by the market. So it is that, again excepting the impostor Lord W, every other Gold Cup scorer this century has returned 12/1 or shorter. The average winning return has been just under 5/1.

 

Age

Championship racing is a young man's game, the Gold Cup being a case in point. Aged ten, Cool Dawn was a shock 25/1 scorer in 1998. Since then, I make it 75 double-digit aged horses have faced the starter, none passing the post in front; eight did place, however. It seems to be a less frequent occurrence that older horses take their Gold Cup place these days and, when it does happen, it is often a star of previous years enjoying a(n unplaced) swansong.

Denman and Kauto Star fair monopolised the podium before and shortly after 2010, but as ten- and eleven-year-olds they could do no better than Fell-2nd-3rd-2nd between them in 2010/11. The other 13 times a double-digit aged horse has been sent off a single figure price since [at least] 1997, they managed a solitary fourth place between them (See More Business at 9/4 in 2000).

Meanwhile, more materially, the sweet spot is, well, any horse younger than ten. From micro representation this century, a six-year-old has won (Long Run, 2011), while the majority of winners are aged seven to nine, as are the majority of runners.

 

It is hardly a surprise that no age group was profitable to back blind but we can see from the colour coding the folly (or boldness, if you prefer) of siding with a veteran.

 

UK vs Ireland

Last year's overall pasting for the home team was reflected in the Gold Cup itself as Irish runners filled out the medal positions, Britain's top performer being the valiant eleven-year-old Native River in fourth. It is worth further noting that there were only four Irish runners in the field of twelve.

In 2020, Ireland's trainers saddled seven of the dozen runners, again taking top honours but this time ceding the consolation spots to the domestic quintet. Irish runners finished 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th and fell.

A year earlier, the first of Al Boum Photo's brace of GC's, an Irish-trained horse also ran second, with the remaining five raiders faring no better than 8th (three non-completions). Native River beat Might Bite for a British 1-2 in 2018, but prior to that it was Irish eyes smiling in both 2017 and 2016, where Team Green bagged the first four places home.

All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years.

 

Trainers

In 2014, the novice Coneygree recorded a memorable Gold Cup success for the small clan at Mark Bradstock's Old Manor Stables; a year later, Jim Culloty unleashed Lord Windermere from his handful of horses to bag glory. These days, most of the equine power is housed in just a few whale stables and romance, even relative romance, is in short supply. But then, perhaps it has been thin on the ground for a while longer: Nicky Henderson won a couple before Lord Jim, and prior to that was a spell of Paul Nicholls dominance.

We are unlikely to see an unfamiliar name engraved into the annals of Festival history this term.

 

Repeaters

A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist's race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up. More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity.

The 56 1-2-3-4 positions since 2008 were filled by just 38 individual horses. Names like Native River and Kauto Star and Denman and Long Run and Al Boum Photo return instantly to mind; but a little more noggin-rummaging is required to recall the triple-placed sticks Djakadam and The Giant Bolster. Hardy perennials all, and expect further familiarity nine weeks hence.

 

Identikit Gold Cup Winner

So where does that leave us? Not much further forward in truth: the challenge with markets like the Gold Cup is that there are few lights dimmed under bushels. We know we're most likely seeking a younger horse, prepared by a mega-trainer, probably in Ireland; and we know that horse will have a top rating and may have run well in last year's Gold Cup.

It's desperately obvious and yet, at the same time, there are a few pretenders who don't really fit that bill.

Of the 30 entered, a dozen don't have a 160+ rating, another four are aged ten (including Al Boum Photo and Champ), and Allaho is almost certain to run in the Ryanair barring the same owner's A Plus Tard's absence from the final declarations for this one. From those remaining it shouldn't be too hard to whittle a good few more:

 

Gold Cup Run Styles

The way races are run suit some horses and, at the same time, compromise others; it is always worth trying to figure out which side of that argument your wagered conveyance is likely to be. Attempting to project from this far out is not straightforward but we still ought to give it a lash. First things first: how have recent Gold Cups played out pace wise?

Last year, Minella Indo tracked a steady enough pace. He was never more than two or three lengths off the lead. In 2020, Al Boum Photo raced midfield but never more than about five lengths from a lead shared without contest; and the previous year, the same horse was ridden more patiently after a number of rivals battled for early primacy.

The story of these three winners? Right place, right time each time.

In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed. This was definitely not a winner I could have found as it looked on paper beforehand that they'd have at it exactly as they did, an approach in this sort of cauldron which typically spells c-u-r-t-a-i-n-s. Fair play to both.

Sizing John in 2017 was trying a longer trip and was ridden accordingly, with patience. That panned out ideally with, again, Native River disputing the lead at a fast tempo; back they came at the bizzo end on quick turf.

O'Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack. Remember him? And in 2015, Coneygree made every yard under an inspired ride from Nico de Boinville. de Boinville's measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line.

 

The message, in case it isn't clear enough yet, is that situation dictates optimal position: if it's steadily run, be close to the front; when there's a more contested gallop, a more patient ride is best. Regardless of how things pan out from an early speed perspective, out back is likely not a favoured position. The only time since 2009 when 'in rear' prevailed? That weird, wonky, bizarro Lord Windermere episode in 2014.

 

2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Pace Map

So let's attempt to nail some jelly to the wall. Specifically, we'll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile - and at what sort of an overall speed. Quackery? Here? How very dare you...

What we do have here on geegeez are future big race fields and, as a result, we can put our tools to work, including the PACE tab. Removing horses I perceive as unlikely to line up, the field looks this, based on an average of their most recent three run style scores:

 

Remastered and Conflated are the two who typically press on. They are also two of the lesser-rated animals in the entries: as such, the chances of them not lining up or simply not being quick enough against this calibre of opposition are high. Run Wild Fred, a novice likely heading elsewhere, is another who could have been trying to nose an advantage over the first few fences. Which is a verbose way of saying this field is not obviously loaded with early dash given the more probable starters.

As such, a prominent run style might be an advantage, which could be a positive for the likes of Minella Indo and Chantry House. Fancied runners such as Protektorat and A Plus Tard would do well not to gift easy lengths to talented rivals by lagging behind in the first half of the race. At least, that's my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses.

 

2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Form Guide

And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.

The favourite, at around 7/2, is A Plus Tard, whose Betfair Chase demolition job at Haydock propelled him to the top of the lists. A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts. Three of those races have been at the Festival where he has the full set of medals; his only gold, mind, came in a handicap, and he's since finished third in the 2020 Ryanair and runner up in last season's Gold Cup. Defeat was unexpected in the G1 Savills Chase over Christmas, but it might be that he had a harder race than it appeared in the Haydock mud; and it might simply be that that self-same Warrington sticky stuff has flattered to deceive once more, as it has done in the Gold Cup context with Bristol De Mai and Royale Pagaille in recent renewals.

For all that iffing and butting, A Plus Tard is the right favourite and almost certain to offer a run for the pennies. But he's no bargain, especially if his jockey - presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option - allows others a head start.

The one to deny APT a year ago was stable mate Minella Indo, himself falling cruelly short on the same sward twelve months earlier. Run down by Champ in the Festival Novices' Chase as a seven-year-old, he resisted Blackmore's persistent attempts to repeat the feat up that withering hill aged eight. We already know repeat winners are relatively commonplace, and that Indo usually figures prominently from tapes up, is theoretically in his pomp as a nine-year-old and, if we add in that he also won his sole other Fez spin, the G1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle of 2019, what's not to like?

Well, P is for 'potato race' and also for 'pulled up', which was the fate that befell the reigning champ on his most recent outing. That scrabble tile on the scorecard came by way of Bryony's goading aboard Frodon in Kempton's King George: the preeminent female riders of their generation - heck, any generation pretty much - set a gallop way too hot to handle and paid the price. The race looks a 'chuck out' but it does follow a middling seasonal debut behind that pesky Frodon at Down Royal, too.

Looking again to the upside, Minella Indo has one target this season as he has had for the last few seasons: Cheltenham's Festival. He arrived in Gloucestershire last term with recent form of F4 and, unless taking in the Dublin Racing Festival between now and his return visit to England, he'll arrive this time with 3P as the last two efforts. He's 8/1.

A niggle with both of these Henry de Bromhead inmates is the form of the yard; while there's plenty of time for that to shake itself right, a 6.5% strike rate in the past month (28% placed) compares unglamorously with historical hit rates a smidge more than double the win and another five or six points on the place.

The third and final single figure price is offered about the chance of Galvin, trained by Gordon Elliott, and vanquisher of A Plus Tard in the Savills last time. An eight-year-old second season chaser, Galvin is another previous Festival winner: his big day came on the Tuesday last year when he saw off all-comers in "the four-miler" National Hunt Chase, which is of course no longer staged over four miles. Stamina is not in doubt then, nor is the quietly ascendant trajectory of his form; but he does tend to struggle more when it's wet.

The evidence is a form string on yielding or quicker of 111121111111 and on soft or heavy of 16F4222 (credit to Tony Keenan for highlighting this). I'm not really into long-range forecasts, nor do I know about water tables, evapotranspiration or turf husbandry; but I do know that, since 1997 - 24 Gold Cup renewals - the official going has been good to soft or quicker on all bar three occasions.

Next in the lists, at 10/1, is Al Boum Photo, winner of the 2019 and 2020 Gold Cups and third last year. That seemed to signal a changing of the guard, an impression that recently turning ten has done nothing to dispel. The substance of his Punchestown second to Clan Des Obeaux and his annual trot around Tramore on New Year's Day has corroborated the perception of this brilliant fellow yielding just a touch to the passage of time.

On the same price, and figuratively passing Al Boum in the lift on the way up, is Protektorat, Dan Skelton's great white (bay, actually) hope. A seven-year-old son of Saint Des Saints, he was a good but not great novice hurdler - won a Listed, beaten three times in Grade 2's - but seems to have taken a solid stride forward over fences. To wit, a novice chase season of 11221, the last win of which was a four length score in the Grade 1 Manifesto at Aintree; and, hitherto this campaign, a staying on close second over a trip seemingly too short under top weight in the Paddy Power, and a facile romp in the Grade 2 Many Clouds Chase at an extended three miles. The form of that latter race is seriously open to question: Native River ran his last race and was spent much further out than usual, and everything else bar Sam Brown failed to complete.

Protektorat has been Pricewise'd in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he's a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately's, but he's not really one I'm yet persuaded by anyway. I do admire his upwardly mobile profile, though.

After that we move towards the longer grass, where contenders morph into pretenders in the main. Take 14/1 Tornado Flyer for example: a shock winner of a bonkers King George that culminated in a pace collapse. His only other effort at three miles was when 37 lengths (count them) behind A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase of 2020. His best run in the interim was when staying on into third in another mental burn up for last season's Ryanair; if they go a million, and if he stays, and if he can cut out the mistakes which are a feature of his performances, he might make the frame. As referenced earlier, at this early juncture the race looks unlikely to set up for him even assuming those other boxes got ticked.

What of 18/1 Chantry House then? Another rocking up after a last day 'P', assuming he doesn't stop off 'twixt now and then, this eight-year-old Seven Barrows green-and-golder was a fine winner at the Fez twelve months back, and an even finer winner in Liverpool three weeks later. That brace of novice G1's, the second of which was at beyond three miles, advertised his prospective Gold Cup claims, something a facile match score over The Big Breakaway did little to rebuke. And then, when it was all going so well, along came that King George; never going the pace there and succumbing to a couple of - these days - uncharacteristic blunders and pulling up.

If one can overlook that disappointment, Chantry House's Chelto form is strong: as well as the Marsh score last campaign he was also a fair third to Shishkin in that one's Supreme. But, with reference to the PU, and this applies equally to Minella Indo unless/until they bid to usurp it as their pre-Gold Cup form figure, the last horse to pull up prior to the Gold Cup and still get it done was... Cool Dawn in 1998. The 15 who attempted to overcome that stat since were all massive prices with the exception of 10/1 Lostintranslation two years ago: he managed third in spite of his trainer's lamentable form at the time, so all may not be lost. Lies, damned lies and statistics...

Asterion Forlonge - not on his feet for longe [harsh] - is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft. There's a fair argument that three of his four falls/unseats were because he is a wuss, scaring himself on the landing side when not foot perfect. I doubt he'll iron that out before March but, if he could take off and land adroitly throughout, he'd be interesting for all that it's (very) hard to forget his errant transit in the 2020 Supreme. He's 18/1 tops.

20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t'other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers' Hurdle section. Oh, and he's only had four runs in two years.

Of the rest, Allaho almost certainly goes Ryanair, Royale Pagaille has plenty to prove away from Haydock, Fiddlerontheroof has most of a stone to find on ratings though does have some good placed form at staying trips, Mount Ida surely goes to the Mares' Chase, and Lostintranslation pulled up in last year's GC and is now ten. The rest are almost impossible to fancy.

 

2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Tips

Plenty to chew on in the above ahead of what looks an open and fascinating betting puzzle. No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds. In my view, and that of most of the rest of the world, easily the three most likely winners are the trio at the head of the market; but their credentials are largely reflected in their prices.

A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he's hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that. He'll likely be a similar price on the day if it's good to soft ground, and then might be worth a saver; he'd probably be opposable on softer.

The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. Yes, we have to overlook a no better than fair first day of term and a very flat effort at Kempton; but there are credible excuses, and Indo's previous - as he arrived at last year's Gold Cup - offers hope he'll be a different horse in two months' time. 8/1 is all right, I think.

Of the remainder, I'm slightly tempted to have a little throwaway each way bet on Chantry House. Again, it was a bad one in the King George last time but, prior to that, he was 1113131111 including a win at last year's Festival. He has a rating that fits (just about), upside at the trip, handles the track, goes on most ground and usually races prominently. And he's 18/1. Or 16/1 NRNB and best odds guaranteed (if you still have it) with bet365. That latter option is playable small each way, I think.

2022 Cheltenham Gold Cup Suggestion

1 pt win Minella Indo 8/1 Paddy, Hills, Victor

½ pt e/w Chantry House 16/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 18/1 Skybet, Unibet

Good luck,

Matt

Becher Chase Pace Bias and Grand National Fence Experience Trends

The Becher Chase is a race I look forward to each year. It’s a great spectacle over the Grand National fences, there is less stamina guesswork than we have to do ahead of the Grand National itself and there are some clear pace and trend pointers, which I'll showcase below.

Becher Chase Pace Bias

Not all races run at Aintree over 3m2f are run over the Grand National course but many are, especially the bigger field races.

Not the biggest of samples but we see some very strong trends in this pace data. The win data isn’t completely reliable given the sample size but still we see a strong win percentage for front runners (10%) and the success rate gradually declines the further back in the field a horse is ridden until you get to held up, which has a win strike rate of just 3.76%.

Now in a sample size like this we need to pay a lot more attention to the place data as three to four times as many runners are contributing to the data set. The place data follows a very similar trend to the win data though with front runners once again coming out on top with a very tidy place percentage of 40%. There is a bit of a drop off between prominent and mid division at 26.17% and 20.48% respectively and then there is a similar drop off down to held up which has a place percentage of just 14.29%.

Front runners seem to enjoy far more of an advantage here than any other run style. Not only do the win and place stats back this up but front runners are also profitable to back blind, generating a Win PL of 3.5 and an EW PL of 10.5. Prominent racers are also profitable to back each way (EW PL of 7.67) but all other run styles are unprofitable to follow, again supporting the case that you want to be as close to the pace as possible here.

When you spot a pace bias like this it can be tempting to think you should only back those that race front rank but that’s not the case. Almost half of the winners in this sample have raced in mid division or the rear, but those run styles have provided many more runners and therefore many more opportunities. So whilst it is an advantage to be on the pace here, it’s by no means impossible to make up ground from the back.

Previous Grand National Fence Experience In The Becher

A previous run over the Grand National fences, particularly a good one, seems to be extremely important in this race.

An amazing 10 of the last 11 winners of the Becher Chase had previous experience over the Grand National course. Add to that the fact that 26 of the last 33 runners to finish in the first 3 in this had also previously run over the National fences and we see a very strong bias towards those who are in some shape or form proven over these obstacles.

So here we see an even stronger trend than the pace bias and in most years the winning tricast will be made up of runners that have previous experience here.

Becher Chase 2021 Preview

A very interesting race again this year with last year’s 1-2-3 all reopposing and taking on 19 other contenders.

The first thing I want to examine is previous course form, and I’ll be using Instant Expert to assist me.

Note that two of the runners (the David Pipe pair at the bottom of the weights) don’t appear in Instant Expert as they have both exclusively raced abroad to date. The pair are well out of the handicap and are the complete outsiders so it shouldn’t make much difference to exclude them anyway.

The course info is what I’m really after above but it’s worth remembering that this is for Aintree in general, not necessarily the Grand National course. These are the runners that have previously run over these fences and their form figures recorded here.

Mac Tottie 1
Kimberlite Candy 22PU
Chris’s Dream UR
Vieux Lion Rouge 7167920951F
Hogan’s Height 106
Le Breuil 73
Tout Est Permis PU
Lord Du Mesnil 9PU
Via Dolorosa 4
Didero Vallis 58

Now obviously a runner without previous National fence experience CAN win this race, and it seems this year more than ever there are some excellent contenders without that experience, but with a couple of bookies paying as many as 7 places on each way bets I’d rather be taking an each way price about one of the above.

So what about the pace for this race? Here is the pace map.

We know that front runners, and to a lesser degree prominent racers, can be favoured here even over the longer distances and with a pretty steady early gallop likely this probably won’t be the stamina test it could be and those that are patiently ridden could be at a disadvantage.

Lord Du Mesnil looks to be the main pace angle with Cobolobo and Via Dolorosa likely to track that runner. El Paso Wood could race prominently too based on his form in France but it’s difficult to predict given he now races for new connections.

You almost certainly don’t want to be in the rear of this field so Chris’s Dream, Domaine De L’Isle, Mighty Thunder and Achille could be amongst those most inconvenienced.

Now looking at the runners, the trio that filled the places last year seems a good place to start. Vieux Lion Rouge bounced back to form in this last year with a 24 length win, taking advantage of a declining handicap mark. Much of his best form is on very testing ground so it’s difficult to read much into an 18.5 length defeat on good ground over just less than 3 miles on seasonal reappearance with this clearly the target. He’s only 5lbs higher this time around so is impossible to rule out.

Kimberlite Candy followed him home and was runner up in the race for a second year running. The ground was probably a bit fast for him in the Grand National, which was his next start and a poor effort but he does need to prove his wellbeing here. He’ll appreciate any rain on Saturday but there are more likely winners in the field.

Le Breuil was third last year and he continues to frustrate. He’s difficult to catch right and ran very poorly on reappearance, plus he’s 4lbs out of the handicap. These fences have a habit of sparking life back into out of form runners and they’ll certainly need to here.

It’s no surprise to see Mac Tottie near the head of the betting after winning over these fences last time out. That victory came in the Grand Sefton last month. A 7lb rise for that effort isn’t too much given he should improve for the step back up in trip but softening ground is a slight concern. He has won on soft before but he’s generally considered a horse that is better on a slightly sounder surface.

Chris’s Dream makes some appeal on form. He may not have completed on his only run over these fences but he was going well enough when unseating in the Grand National and he had gone further than this trip when his race ended. He’s unlikely to be ideally placed in this though which is a concern given the likely pace setup.

Hogan’s Height and Tout Est Permis both have pieces of form to recommend them on but neither have the overall profiles to really appeal. Via Dolorosa ran well here last time behind Mac Tottie and he looked a bit of a natural over these obstacles. His stamina is a question mark though and he’s 6lbs out of the handicap.

Meanwhile Didero Vallis was disappointing on seasonal debut but he stays this far, the ground will be no problem and has has completed twice here, albeit well enough beaten on both occasions. If you can get the best of the each way terms he might offer a bit of value at a decent price (around 25/1).

The safest play though at what is still a fair price (7/1) might be Mac Tottie who is still on the up and perhaps he improved for the removal of the hood last time out. The step up in trip will suit and as long as the ground doesn’t get too testing he should go very well. Vieux Lion Rouge isn't a bad price at 12/1 given his record here, especially over trips shy of 4m which he doesn't seem to stay.

Of those without National fence experience Snow Leopardess looks an obvious one with pretty much everything in her favour. She should really appreciate this test but you never know if they’ll take to the fences until you’ve seen them.

How Newbury’s Pace Bias Changes Over Fences At Different Distances

Newbury and Newcastle host the top action this weekend with the more competitive racing seemingly coming from Newbury.

The ‘Ladbrokes Trophy Chase’ is the highlight on the card, run over 3m2f, and it will be very interesting to examine any potential course pace biases at that trip and compare them to shorter distances.

Newbury Chase Pace Bias Over Longer Distances

Here is the pace bias data for bigger field handicaps over 3m+ at Newbury.

Not a huge sample size but not a poor one either. As such the win data can be taken with a slight pinch of salt but that seems to suggest that the closer you are to the pace the better. Front runners and prominent racers score a 11.36% and 10.62% win percentage respectively. That compares extremely favourably with 5.17% and 2.92% for mid division and held up respectively.

Given the sample size more notice should be taken of the place data but that also follows a similar trend with front runners coming out best again 34.09% and the data tailing off the further back you go until you reach hold up performers. They have a place percentage of just 13.87% - a huge drop off from the performance of the other three run styles. 

Each way bets on front runners and prominent runners are both profitable to back win and place, producing EW PL of 1.5 and 4.5 respectively whilst as you’d expect, following runners that race in mid division or the rear has been unprofitable. It’s also worth noting that despite lesser representation, front runners and prominent racers win almost twice as many races as their patiently ridden counterparts (17 winners compared to 10 winners).

Overall Chase Bias At Newbury

So how does the above data compare with shorter trips at Newbury?

This shows the performance (place percentage) of front runners and prominent racers combined across various chase trips at Newbury in the same races as the earlier pace data. The distances are shown along the bottom, in furlongs. There is no really clear trend unfortunately.

You’d normally see a stronger early pace performance at shorter trips and that is the case here with 16f and 17f coming out best of all. It’s much poorer between 18f and 22f, and also over the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase distance of 26f, but it appears that over 24f (3m) there is a clear increase in the effectiveness of early pace here.

That’s not to say early pace isn’t effective over 3m2f here, in fact front runners still have the best win and place percentages over that trip, but it seems that racing in mid division is more effective over the extra distance than it is over the shorter distances (and 3m).

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Preview

With pace being analysed in this article we’ll of course want to note the pace map first.

Front runners do well over this course and distance but this might not be the race for them with a likely contested early speed. There are four fairly strong contenders to lead early in this, Remastered, One More Fleurie, Eklat De Rire and Cloth Cap, so this could setup for something ridden a little more patiently.

That doesn’t mean it will be ideal to be held up miles off the pace as despite looking a pretty fair course it’s clearly still not easy to make up plenty of ground here. So with that in mind the likes of Cloudy Glen, Kitty’s Light and The Hollow Ginge will need to run particularly well to get into this.

Ontheropes is likely to be a pretty warm order for Willie Mullins having won impressively last time out. He seems to have quite the engine and obviously the trainer has to be massively respected whenever he sends anything over but the majority of his form is on very testing ground so there is a slight unknown as regards to the ground. Potentially not one to get stuck into at a shortish price.

Eklat De Rire also has ground concerns in terms of being unproven and he’s also lacking big field form too which could count against him. He is also likely to sit very close to what will probably be a strong gallop. He’s one of a few here that could be anything but I’d prefer to have something a bit more ‘solid’ running for me in a race like this.

Fiddlerontheroof’s latest win has taken a knock since and he’s still got to prove himself over this far. There are certainly no stamina doubts about Enrilo who was first past the post but demoted to 3rd in last season’s bet365 Gold Cup Chase over 3m5f, a race that took place on good ground. He’s gone well fresh previously and should be able to sit a little way off the pace so he’s certainly one of those more solid contenders, for all he’s short enough in the early betting.

Around Enrilo in that bet365 Gold Cup were Potterman and unlucky loser Kitty's Light and they reoppose here. Despite the likelihood of a decent gallop here, Kitty’s Light might not be ideally placed as he is often very patiently ridden. Potterman on the other hand may be just about ideally placed and he seems to love good ground. He ran very well last time out and despite being 6lbs higher than when unseating in this last year he looks a good each way punt at around 14/1 with up to 7 places on offer with the bookies for this.

I also wouldn’t want to rule out Brave Eagle from getting into the places at a big price (25s general at time of writing). He was 8th in this two years ago off a 9lb higher mark when hampered twice and he ran very respectably after almost a year off last time out. He’ll be entitled to come on plenty for that and for anyone who can get on with the bookmakers with the better each way terms he’d be worth a small interest.

Haydock Pace Bias Over Marathon Trips On Good Ground

Seven of the last nine renewals of the Betfair Chase have been run on ground that was at least soft and three of the last five years it has been heavy ground but a very dry spell this year means that we are likely to be racing on good ground on Saturday. This gives us a good opportunity to have a look at potential pace biases on better ground at Haydock.

Staying trips are the main focus at this meeting with three chases over 3m+ and also the Grade 3 Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle so these distances are where I will concentrate my efforts.

3m+ Chase Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

Unfortunately we have a pretty small sample size here courtesy of the fact that Haydock rarely gets extended dry spells but the data we do have suggests that this is a relatively fair course.

Races tend to be more even from a pace perspective over longer distances and that seems to be the case here with front running, racing in mid division and being held up all resulting in pretty similar place percentages. Front runners actually perform poorest of all in terms of placing with a place strike rate of 25% but being near the pace isn’t a complete disadvantage as prominent racers have comfortably the best win and place strike rates. The win percentage when racing prominently is an impressive 17.05% and the place percentage is 38.64%, well clear of the next best 27.66% for mid division.

Despite the small sample there does seem enough of a difference in the data to suggest that racing just off the pace is advantageous over longer trips around the Haydock chase course.

Given how close the data is for the three other run styles it doesn’t seem worth doing anything with this pace data other than simply marking up those that are likely to race prominently. 

The individual pace setup in each race will of course have an influence on this so we definitely shouldn’t blindly assume that prominent racers will be advantaged in every single race but more often than not they are likely to be seen to best effect here.

3m+ Hurdle Pace Bias At Haydock On Good Or Good To Soft Ground

To be able to get more data into the sample I have included races run over 2m6f as well, a move that is unlikely to dilute the quality of the sample given the similarity in distance.

Again, still not a massive sample but we are seeing a fairly strong advantage towards those nearer the pace here.

Front runners have a place percentage of 29.03% and prominent racers have a place strike rate of 30.77%. There is little between the two but both compare very favourably with mid division and held up with those place percentages reading 22.08% and 20.20% respectively.

So both front runners and prominent racers have a similar record of reaching the frame, as do those racing in mid division and the rear, but there is a pretty big difference between the two pairs of running styles.

So once again, take into account the pace setup in each staying hurdle race at Haydock on decent ground but in most cases mark up those likely to race in front rank.

Stayers’ Handicap Chase Analysis

My preferred race to get involved in on this card would be the chase run at 12.40 over a distance of just over 3.5m. Even on good ground stamina will be at a premium.

Firstly, here is the pace map for this race:

It seems almost certain that Furius De Ciergues will go forward and if similar tactics to recent runs are used on the rest of the field he’s going to get a pretty easy time of it at the head of affairs. He’s an extremely consistent sort having finished in the first 4 on each of his last 13 starts over hurdles and fences and his latest 3rd has been pretty well advertised since with winner Strictlyadancer going in again comfortably next time out. He’s unbeaten in two runs beyond 3m2f and should be able to fill the places once again as a minimum, even if he is 2lbs out of the handicap.

There are four contenders likely to track the early pace and this quartet should be in the best place according to the previous pace data here. 

Speak Of The Devil is a consistent horse on good ground and he’s very much in form having gone close last time out. He could be suited by this step up in trip but he’s generally been running in weaker looking races than this. He does look a fair price though all things considered.

Captain Drake ran poorly last time out but that was off the back of a break and after a wind op so he did have excuses. He has good ground hurdle form but he seems best suited by softer conditions and he’s not the easiest to fancy here. Jersey Bean is another who didn’t run well last time out. On the best of his form he has more than a fair chance but he’s not the easiest to predict.

Defuture Is Bright looks a bit short in the betting based on this season’s form. He’s already had two runs and did improve from first run to second run but he was still 13 lengths behind Furius De Ciergues last time out and he needs to rediscover last season’s form.

Amateur is all about stamina and he’s been a better horse on his more recent starts after a wind op. If he’s fully fit for this he’s a major contender. Silva Eclipse has won here and finished 2nd a further four times but the majority of his best form is on heavy or soft so conditions could be livelier than ideal for him.

This perhaps isn’t the strongest race with several of these having questions to answer so I think I’d prefer to play Furius De Ciergues each way given he is proven over the distance and in the ground and he comes into this extremely likely to run his race which is more than can be said about most of these.

Solid Contender At Lingfield

One runner I have been monitoring for some time is Uther Pendragon who runs in the 11.35am at Lingfield. He’s certainly not the classiest, nor is he the easiest to win with (just 3 wins from 67 starts compared) but he does have a much better record of filling the frame (23 top 3 finishes from 67 starts) and he’s now looking very well handicapped.

He’s put in numerous decent efforts in relatively good races.

On the 22nd December he was a narrowly beaten 3rd over course and distance off an 8lb higher mark. The winner won 2 of his next 5 starts and the 4th won next time out too.

On 12th January he was 3rd again over this course and distance, beaten 1.5 lengths, in a race where the 2nd, 4th and 6th all won shortly after. Uther Pendragon was rated 9lbs higher in that race than he is now.

On 5th February he was a neck 2nd, again over course and distance, and the winner won next time out whilst the 3rd and 4th would both finish runner up shortly after. That run also came off a 9lb higher mark than his current rating.

Then on 18th April at Newbury over this 10f off the same mark again as previous runs, he was ‘only’ 7th, beaten 5 lengths, but the 1st, 2nd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th, 12th and 13th all won within a couple of outings after. That was an extremely strong race and arguably the best example of Hot Form all season.

Uther Pendragon seemed to lose his form after that but enjoyed the return to Lingfield last time out, trying to make all but ending up in 3rd. That’s not his typical run style so he should benefit from being slightly more patiently ridden from a good draw in stall 2. If he tracks the pace and is in the same form as last time he should be able to at least place again so it will be interesting to see how the bookies price him up.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias?

Cheltenham is going to grab the headlines this weekend so that is where I’ll focus the bulk of my attention. I’ll be looking at pace once again but I’ll be doing it slightly differently this time around.

We all know that pace is extremely important in each race and pace biases exist in some form or another at most UK racecourses but what is often underestimated is relative pace bias. It’s all well and good saying a front runner will be suited by a particular course, but if the horse's recent form has been at a venue that is even more advantageous for front runners then it’s probably fairly likely the horse won’t run as well as the recent efforts (ignoring all other race factors of course).

So this week I’m going to look at how front runners perform at Cheltenham, relative to other racecourses.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias Over Hurdles?

Below you’ll see the performance of front runners, in handicap hurdles, at a variety of distances across UK and Irish racecourses. The data is sorted by Impact Value, which shows how often something is happening relative to the other possible outcomes.

There are several important things to consider from the above data.

Over the minimum distance 52 of the 63 tracks examined have a better IV than Cheltenham. That’s not to say front runners perform poorly at Cheltenham. An IV of 0.92 is fairly respectable (1 would be considered standard, anything above that is ‘positive’, anything above that is ‘negative’) but it’s fairly clear that it’s not as easy to make all at Cheltenham over very short distances as it is at other courses.

At intermediate trips front runners perform less well at Cheltenham. All of the metrics drop and the IV for front runners now stands at 0.64. It’s quite common to find the effectiveness of aggressive tactics decreases over longer trips but we now see just four tracks performing worse for front runners.

Over staying trips the IV for front runners is reduced once again, this time to just 0.36. Over these more extreme trips there is only one course that now has a worse IV for front runners and that is Kelso. There are 8 courses that have an IV of more than 2 so it’s quite feasible that a front runner that has performed well at one of those courses before running at Cheltenham is going to struggle to reproduce the same form around Cheltenham if adopting the same tactics once again (again, not taking into account all of the other race factors at play).

It’s possible that Cheltenham simply hosts more competitive races than other tracks which has a knock on effect as to the success rate of front runners but the racing isn’t becoming any less competitive here so it could be wise to expect front runners to struggle to run quite so well here over hurdles as they have done at other courses.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias Over Fences?

Now time to look at the same data set but this time over the larger obstacles.

Once again Cheltenham is pretty consistent in where it appears on the list for each distance but over fences front runners seem to perform much better than over hurdles.

Cheltenham is in the top 30% of performers out of these racecourses when it comes to front runner IV over minimum distances, scoring 2.08. It’s one of only 16 courses that has an IV of more than 2. The course also performs well when it comes to ROI (38.51%) and A/E (Actual v Expected) which is 1.74. Just like IV, 1 is considered standard or average for A/E with a score above 1 a good performance and a score below one a poorer performance.

Over the intermediate distances over fences Cheltenham has the exact same rank as over shorter distances but it’s worth noting that this time around the IV is down to 1.82. That’s still an excellent performance but obviously not quite as strong as it was over shorter.

Whilst Cheltenham holds the same rank again, it’s also worth noting that the courses and the order above and below change which is something to bear in mind when considering relative performance of front runners over these differing distances. Only six racecourses see a better front runner performance by IV for both of the distances examined so far.

Over marathon trips Cheltenham drops one place in terms of overall rank however the IV actually goes up, very slightly, to 1.83. Again the course sees a strong performance across all metrics for front runners. Only Hereford and Doncaster have stronger front runner performance across all three distance bands examined.

Overall it seems pretty clear that Cheltenham tends to favour front runners over fences more so than it does over hurdles. Over the smaller obstacles the front runner ‘advantage’ decreases as you go up in distance whereas over fences it seems to increase (slightly) the further you go.

November Handicap Draw and Pace Bias Revealed

The flat turf season has it’s last hurrah of the year this weekend with the November Handicap the big betting race on Doncaster's card.

I recently went through straight course biases at Doncaster, the home of the November Handicap, and if you want to remind yourself of my findings ahead of this meeting you can click here to do so.

This article will be concentrating on the round course though and I’ll be previewing the November Handicap runners as well.

Doncaster Round Course Pace Bias For The November Handicap

The pace data at Doncaster for both the 10f distance and 12f distance are both very similar so I am going to combine them here so that this information can be used for other round course races, including the British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes on this card, run over 10f.

In big fields here (14 or more runners) it seems as though it is best of all to race prominently. The best win and place percentages are recorded for this run style (8.02% and 24.69% respectively).

The metrics for front runners give out some slightly contrasting data. The win percentage of 6.67% is bettered only by prominent racers however the place percentage of 13.33% is comfortably the worst performer. Given more data contributes to the place percentages it may seem wise to put more emphasis on this data.

The place percentage for mid division is only very marginally worse than that of prominent so it doesn’t seem to be any sort of disadvantage to follow this run style here however there is a drop off when it comes to hold up performers so it’s probably best to mark this run style down slightly when looking through each field unless the horse in question appears to have plenty in hand and/or there is a strong pace likely.

November Handicap Draw Bias

There wasn’t much variance in the data between distances as far as the pace bias at Doncaster on the round course was concerned but there does seem to be a slight shift when it comes to the draw bias at Doncaster so this time I will only be looking at the 12f distance over which the November Handicap is run.

The win data seems to suggest that ‘not low’ is best as 25 of the 30 wins have been scored by runners drawn either middle or high. The place percentage data is much closer and implies that middle is best of all with low and high both evenly matched - a far cry from the win data.

The PRB data could be most telling here given every runner contributes and this once again suggest middle is the best place to be. It’s not exactly a massive advantage as middle has a PRB of 0.53 compared to 0.49 for high and 0.48 for low, but there does certainly seem to be a bias towards those drawn in the middle.

It’s now time to look at the individual stall data to dig into this further.

Looking first at the place percentages, of the top fourteen stalls, the lowest six stalls are not particularly well represented (only 2 and 5 feature) although 2 does come out with the best over place percentage. In the bottom nine stalls for this metric, three of them are stall 4 or lower and three of them are stall 19 or higher. This is suggesting that the very lowest and very highest stalls could be a bit of a disadvantage which is why we’ve probably seen the middle stalls top most metrics in the low v middle v high comparison.

If you go through the individual PRB figures, nine of the top ten performers are stall 9 or above, which backs up the impression once again that despite low generally being perceived as the place to be around a bend, this probably isn’t the case here. Six of the worst eleven performers are stalls 8 or below.

This isn’t a huge sample so the PRB3 data is most reliable in giving us an overall idea of the best areas of the draw and this is represented in the line graph at the bottom of the image above.

In line with the rest of the data I have highlighted, the very best parts of the draw seem to be between stalls 9 and 18. The very best place to be drawn is probably in the mid to low teens to be precise.

These are only micro advantages though, stalls 2, 5, 7 and 8 all produce plenty of places over this course and distance so it’s not a case of ruling out the majority of the singles figures, or the draws that are 19+. If deciding between two or three runners on a shortlist it may be best to favour those drawn as central as possible though.

November Handicap Draw and Pace Combination

This heat map suggests that leading isn’t going to be a great tactic here, but it’s especially ineffective from a middle draw, which is statistically the place to be in general.

If leading isn’t a good run style for those drawn in the middle, what is? Prominent racers perform extremely well from middle draws, in fact they are seen to best effect of any draw/pace combination here. Mid division is next best for this draw followed by being held up.

If drawn low, there is very little difference in performance between being held up, racing in mid division or racing prominently.

It’s interesting to note that the best tactics for those drawn high are being held up. It’s certainly a case of the more patient ride the better for those drawn high, presumably those that aren’t dropped in suffer a particularly wide trip around the bend.

November Handicap 2021 Preview

As usual, I’d like to take a look at the pace map for this race first.

It looks like the pace is going to come from the very lowest and very highest stalls, courtesy of Whitehaven and Nuit St George. The latter was 3rd in this last year off a 6lb lower mark and a better draw so he could be up against it to reach the places this time around.

There are plenty who can lead in the centre but don’t necessarily habitually lead. It’s unlikely anything will be able to beat Whitehaven to the lead from stall 1 so the likes of Cardano, First Light, Skycutter and Wells Farhh Go should all be prominent as a minimum from their middle draws, and it’s worth noting that run style can be somewhat advantaged from that draw.

We know that the best run style for those drawn high tends to be held up so the main two from the high draws to make appeal on a draw and pace combination are Flyin Solo and Platinumcard, whilst Farhan and Prince Alex should also be considered.

A decent test at the trip seems likely given the softish ground (could be quite tacky with no rain in the more recent build up) and the presence of several pace angles.

It will need to be a decent pace to suit a few of the well fancied runners, notably Calling The Wind and East Asia. I liked Calling The Wind for the Cesarewitch apart from the draw and whilst he seemed to prove his speed for this trip two starts ago at Newbury, he’s gone up another 3lbs since then and might not be well enough handicapped over this trip in this company. East Asia bounced back to form with another win 10 days ago (his 4th of the season) and another 5lbs on his back might not be enough to stop him based on how he won that but he does need to translate all his progression this season to this trip (won on seasonal debut over 12f but off a 20lbs lower mark).

First Light has been the early favourite. He represents John Gosden who has won this race six times, including three wins since 2009. He’s one of three 3yos in this and the classic generation dominated this in the 90s and 00s (11 winners in that period) but they’ve managed just one win from 34 runners since 2009. This age group has the 5th worst place percentage since then, only 7yos have performed worse. It is the 4yos that have the clear best place percentage (23.26%) whilst 6yos are next best but some way off with just 17.5%. The best win percentage also belongs to 4yos.

The trainer name and record in this does seem to have had an effect on First Light’s odds. He won an Ascot handicap in July, a race that has worked out okay at best, and he followed that up with a very poor effort in the 14f listed race last time out. He wasn’t totally disgraced given his rating and the distance (he’d also been off for two months before) but he looks a poor favourite all things considered.

Sam Cooke was sent off just 7/2 for this race last year and is only 1lb higher this time around plus he arrives here in top form so he merits plenty of consideration. He seems to have finally learned to settle again in recent starts and he’s well drawn here but despite previously seeming suited to a soft surface, all his best form this season has coincided with faster ground so there are some questions to answer. It would be no surprise if he ran well but the ground has suddenly become a bit of an unknown for him.

Mr Curiosity could still be anything and he was backed last time out as if defeat was out of the question - and it was as he won by over 5 lengths. That was a poor race though over further and he's not guaranteed to be as well handicapped over this distance in better company. He's preferred to First Light at similar prices and would probably make a stronger favourite than that rival but opposable overall.

All of Global Storm’s best form has come at Newmarket so I’m happy enough to take him on, whilst I’ve always been a Rhythmic Intent fan and he was runner up in this last year but he threw in a bad performance last time out and his win in the Mallard Handicap has probably left him a bit high in the weights. He was behind Dark Jedi last time out over course and distance and that rival travelled like a dream that day only to get beaten late on by a well handicapped rival. He’s gone up 2lbs for that which makes life tougher but he could easily run into a place.

It will be interesting to see if first time blinkers can bring about a return to form for Deja, who is well handicapped on last season’s form but he’s been well off it this season.

The pair I am most interested in from a handicapping point of view (and this is a handicap after all) are Flyin’ Solo and Farhaan. Both are maybe drawn a little higher than ideal but have some good handicap form to their names and should still be open to more improvement.

Flyin’ Solo won one of the best handicaps of the season in April at Newbury over 10f - he’s subsequently a stone higher but the runner up has won off a stone higher mark and the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th have all won subsequently. He won a York handicap comfortably next time out on good to soft ground (the softest ground he has encountered) and having gone up 9lbs for that he’s looked just about in the grip of the handicapper since, albeit running pretty well in defeat.

Those runs might be better than they seem though.

At Windsor he was poorly placed as the race developed and the other five runners to finish in the first six all finished either 1st or 2nd shortly after suggesting it was a decent race. Then last time out he was 3rd in a race where the winner and 5th finished runner up next time and the 4th won shortly after. He picked up an injury in that race too, which is why he hasn’t been seen since.

The fact that he’s been gelded since suggests he could have more improvement left in the tank. This will be the softest ground he has encountered but his career best performance came on the softest ground he has run on so far and he’s by Roderic O’Connor whose offspring perform best from a place percentage perspective on either good to soft or soft ground. Flyin’ Solo’s sire was a heavy ground Group 1 winner himself.

Farhaan has been consistent this season, finishing runner up on four of his five starts this year. He excelled in soft ground on his final start as a 2yo but hasn’t had soft ground since and has probably run his two best races this season on the two races he’s had on good to soft ground. Those were a 2nd over 10f at Sandown, staying on well to be beaten just a neck, and also a 2nd in the Old Rowley Cup, generally one of the most competitive handicaps of the season. He's had a pretty light campaign, is very consistent and remains completely unexposed over this sort of test.

Summary

I can see both running very well and being amongst the places. Farhaan’s tendency to finish 2nd and the recent record of 3yos in this race is slightly off putting so preference would be for FLYIN' SOLO, representing 4yos who do so well in this. This being his first run since a slight injury is a bit of a question mark but he’s still had just 8 starts so should have plenty more left to give and there should be enough pace to carry him into the race. The fact that he comes here a fresh horse at the end of a long season could be what gives him the biggest edge.

East Asia and Calling The Wind should run well enough, possibly without being quick enough whilst Dark Jedi is another who should provide a decent run for each way punters. 

Breeders’ Cup Compendium: Free Download

Every year, geegeez.co.uk produces a companion guide to the Breeders' Cup, called the Breeders' Cup Compendium. It's packed full of stats, trends, course info, pace maps, odds, video form, and form analysis. Often there is a small charge to access, and occasionally it is free. This year it's free. Whoop!

The guide is produced in stages, like a restaurant that brings the food as it is ready rather than all together; and you can download the latest version below.

CURRENT VERSION: 1.0 - COMPLETE

DOWNLOAD HERE >

 

DOCUMENT NOW FINAL - GO STEADY, AND GOOD LUCK!

 

Matt

Wetherby Pace Bias Over Both Hurdles And Fences

The first weekend in a very long time where national hunt racing is the sole serving on ITV and although the flat isn’t completely done with yet (it’s the November Handicap next week which signals the official end of the flat turf season), jumps racing will largely be the focus in the coming months.

Ascot and Wetherby host the majority of Saturday’s live races and it will be interesting to look at potential pace biases at both tracks over the winter. This is Wetherby’s big day, whereas Ascot has other feature days, so I’m going to concentrate on Wetherby this week.

Wetherby Hurdle Pace Bias

Wetherby hosts hurdle races over 2m, 2.5m and 3m at this meeting so I’ll look at each distance individually.

2m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby

Let’s first examine the pace bias over the minimum distance over hurdles here.

This course and distance certainly seems to suit those up with the pace when racing over hurdles. Front runners have both the best win percentage and place percentage in medium sized fields.

Front runners have produced an 18.37% win strike rate and a 38.78% place percentage, with this run style proving profitable when backed blind for both win and each way purposes.

Prominent racers have the clear second best win percentage although they are narrowly third best to mid division when it comes to place percentage.

Those that are held up certainly seem at a disadvantage here with the worst win percentage (6.38%) and comfortably the worst place percentage (23.4%).

2.5m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby

Do we see the same sort of pace bias over a little further here?

The answer is no. This time around front runners have the worst win strike rate and hold up performers have the best win strike rate. This trend isn’t quite echoed with the place percentages, which do hold more weight in a sample of this size, but the win percentages and place percentages are all very closely matched.

The only run style here that is profitable, and profitable for both win and each way bets, is mid division so that may be most favoured but the bottom line over this two and a half mile trip over hurdles at Wetherby is that there doesn’t look to be any real sort of pace bias.

3m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby

So how does the data over a three mile trip look like?

Not the biggest of samples here but we do see a slight swing back to front runners enjoying the run of things over this longer distance with the pacesetters gaining both the best win percentage and best place percentage.

Front runners certainly aren’t as dominant as they were over 2m here though and the data is far more closely matched, just as it was over half a mile shorter.

Front runners are profitable to back blind for both win and each way purposes and prominent racers have the next best place percentage suggesting that being nearer the pace is certainly some sort of advantage. There is only around 5.5% difference though in place percentages between front runners and being held up so the pace bias here, and there does seem to be one, is not a strong one.

Wetherby Chase Pace Bias

The main races over fences at this meeting are run over 2.5m and 3m so these distances will be the focus over the larger obstacles.

2.5m Chase Pace Bias At Wetherby

This distance was pretty even and fair over hurdles and although there isn’t a huge amount in the figures here we do seem to see a bias towards those who race nearer the pace.

The best win percentages and place percentages belong to front runners and prominent racers (front runners edge it as far as the win data is concerned, prominent racers do better for place purposes).

Meanwhile the worst of the data performance belongs to mid division and held up.

There does seem a fairly substantial drop off in place strike rate when you go from prominent to mid division. Prominent racers have a place percentage of 37.95% and that drops all the way down to 25% (the same as hold up performers have) for mid division.

The takeaway here seems to be that when racing over 2.5m over fences at Wetherby it pays to be in the front half of the field early.

3m Chase Pace Bias At Wetherby

It’s difficult to know what to make of this data with front runners having the worst win percentage but the best place percentage.

The overall trend for the win data is also difficult to decipher given how up and down it is so it should definitely pay to concentrate on the place data, which gives us three times as much data as the win sample.

As previously mentioned, the top place percentage belongs to front runners here and it’s also worth noting that the worst place percentage goes to those that are held up. There is over 10% difference in the figures which seems fairly significant.

Prominent and mid division are fairly closely matched and although mid division actually slightly outperforms prominent the overall trajectory of the place percentages seems to suggest closer to the pace the better but the bias towards those nearer the pace doesn’t seem as strong as it is over shorter distances here.

Hopefully this information helps you pick a few more winners, and a few less losers at Wetherby this weekend and this season.

Newmarket Analysis

As far as betting races are concerned this weekend, for me there are a couple of interesting contests over at Newmarket whilst the majority of the jumpers get their seasonal pipe openers out of the way.

The 2.23 at Newmarket is a class 3 mile handicap and judging by the very early betting I’d rather be with the bigger prices than the shorter prices. This is definitely the race I’m most interested in.

I’m still fairly interested in Scottish Summit despite the fact that he’s without a win in 13 months and just seems to be finding one or two too good in almost every race. He was better than the bare form last time at Redcar (had to switch away from the favoured rail to get a run and was racing against a pace bias) and before that he’d been in good form, finding just a lightly raced, promising 3yo too good when travelling best at Doncaster. He should be good for another place again here.

I quite fancied Fairy Cakes last time out at Newbury as she had a couple of interesting pieces of form to her name. She beat the progressive Wink Of An Eye early in the season at Goodwood. Admittedly Fairy Cakes is now 15lbs higher but she beat that rival by 2 lengths and Wink Of An Eye is now rated 25lbs higher and the 3rd also won next time out giving that form a really solid look.

Fairy Cakes is proven off a higher mark too.

She dropped back to this mile trip at Sandown in June and finished 2nd to Hoodwinker, who has won again since. The 3rd won her next two starts, the fifth won next time out and even the 7th won two starts later.

When racing six weeks later off a 1lb higher mark I thought she was a very good thing but she was weak in the betting and finished last, beaten 24 lengths. She’s been off since and that run came 108 days ago so it clearly wasn’t her running but will she be able to resume progression here?

The good news is that trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has had two winners and two runners up from her last six runners, including two at 33/1, so she’s clearly got her string running well. In the past 12 months though her handicap runners have achieved a PRB of 0.51 but her handicap runners who have been off 60+ days have only managed a PRB of 0.4 so Fairy Cakes isn’t guaranteed to be fully wound up unfortunately. Any rain could be against her too. One to watch in the market maybe.

It’s also worth mentioning Redarna, probably not with this race in mind. I wrote ahead of his run at the Ayr Western Meeting that with a bit of cut in the ground he would probably be pretty much unbeatable at that venue in the right sort of company given his record at the track. I was therefore pretty perplexed when he was weak in the market and one of the first beaten. However he returned there just two weeks later and won a better race comfortably, proving my theory about him correct to a certain degree.

He’s since let that form down slightly at York but that’s clearly not his course and it’s worth noting how well his Ayr win has now worked out.

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won since whilst the 5th, 6th and 7th have all placed since. Redarna is definitely one to look out for again next season at Ayr, even at the ripe old age of 8 which he'll hit at the turn of the year.

But with this race in mind I’m going to be backing Scottish Summit to place and I’ll be monitoring Fairy Cakes in the market.

Breeders’ Cup 2021: Trends

This will be the 38th renewal of the great transatlantic set to that is the Breeders' Cup and, while some races are newer than that, most have a historical identikit profile worth noting. What follows are some observations based on what we've seen previously in the hope that it may inform what happens on the first weekend in November.

Breeders' Cup 2021: Friday Trends

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf) (14 renewals to date)

  • Euro 8 US 6 (Euro 1st Del Mar 2017, always handy from post 1)
  • 2-6 runs (13/14 had 2 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-2/3-3/4-6/5-2/6-1)
  • 5/6 US won at 1m+, only 3/8 Euro won at 1m (incl ’17 & '18 winners, however)
  • 1st-3rd Fav Only 7 from 42 (14 renewals) - 50% winners outside top 3 in betting
  • 14/14 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner (ran sharp)
  • 0 Front Runner winners (8 CLOSERS, 6 PROMINENT)
  • 6 of the 8 Euro winners plus Hootenanny recorded RPR of 110+; '16 winner 108 LTO, '18 winner 105 LTO
  • 8/8 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won lesser stakes; 3 of last 5 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO ('18 winner won G3 LTO)
  • 6/6 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
  • Euro winners 20-42 days absent (5/8 20 or 21 days); US 20, 34, 34, 35, 49, 68 days absent
  • Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, 2nd win in '19, 3rd win in '20

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt) (37 renewals to date)

  • >> Good race for an upset when trials were slow…
  • 16 of the last 19 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2 starts, ’07, ’17 & '19)
  • Last 19, career runs: 2-3/3-7/4-6/5+-3
  • Layoff: 32/37 were running within 30 days (‘16 winner 35 days off); (34/37 5 weeks off or less)
  • 30/37 (81%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
  • 21/26 improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
  • 90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
  • 34/37 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
  • Favourite is 18/37 (49%)
  • "Look beyond the obvious when trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver
  • 22/37 (59%) had NOT won at the distance

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf) (13 renewals to date)

  • 8/11 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17/'20 winners exited Jessamine, '19 winner minor Stakes
  • US 11 Euro 2 (both Euro in the two non-Lasix years)
  • 12/13 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
  • 12/13 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
  • 13/13 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
  • Frontrunners 3, Prominent 6, Late runners 4
  • Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-3 / 5wks-5 / 6wks-1 / 7wks-2 (Euro 4-5wks)
  • Prior Runs: US winners 2-7; 3-2; 4-1; 5-0; 6-1 / Euro winners 4-1; 5-1
  • 80+ Beyer – 8/11 recorded 81+ (2 others had only 2 starts) / Euro RPR's 114, 106
  • 2 Euro winners ran in G1 races LTO (1st, 1.5L 4th) - Euro^ = G1 LTO
  • Chad Brown has trained 5 JFT winners (4 in California) , incl. 5 of the last 7
  • 4 of Chad's 5 won the Ms Grillo
  • All US exacta: 5/13

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt) (37 renewals so far)

  • 35/37 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
  • Look for solid workouts, especially off a longer (35+ day) layoff
  • 19 of the last 28 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO
  • 18 of last 25 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time
  • Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013 and 2015
  • Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2-6 (incl 4 in last 8 years)/ 3-5 / 4-6

Breeders' Cup 2021: Saturday Trends

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt) (14 renewals so far)

  • Winner's age: 64454455445333
  • 3yo's 3 from 39 to date; '18 winner 3yo, 20/1; '19 1st/2nd only two 3yo's in the field
  • 3yo's won 0 of first 11, and now won last 3!
  • 13/14 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time (not ’17 winner)
  • 11/14 won at 7f; 5/14 2+ wins at 7f
  • 11/14 won or were 2nd in a G1 ('17 winner 2nd 7f G1 2 yrs ago, '18 winner 1st G2 LTO, only 7f start)
  • TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f) –
  • PID Masters also key race – no longer being run?
  • Surface switch (synth or turf to dirt) : 7/14 winners; '18 winner 1stx2 on synths prior to final prep on dirt
  • Fav 5/14, 2nd fav 2/14, 3rd fav 0/14. 7/14 4th or lower in the betting

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (5f, Turf) (13 renewals so far)

  • 9/13 were distance winners (material when run at 5 1/2f, not relevant in 2021)
  • Age 3-1; 4-5; 5-3; 6-3; 8-1 (all largely in line with representation)
  • 11/13 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out (not ’17 winner)
  • 11/13 had 99+ Beyer or 115+ RPR; 13/13 96+ Beyer or 115+ RPR
  • 12/13 had 4+ starts in year
  • 12/13 had a 28+ day layoff
  • 13/13 placed in Graded Stakes (9/13 WON Graded Stakes)
  • Europeans 1 from 12 so far (Glass Slippers in 2020)
  • Favourite is 4/13
  • Peter Miller won the three renewals between 2017 and 2019 (including 2x exacta!)
  • Y/N - Previous runs, not what is declared for BC
  • CT - Class turnback, as deployed by Bobby's Kitten 2014

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt) (14 renewals to date)

  • 11/14 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (but NOT '19 or '20 winners)
  • All 14 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races
  • 9/14 had 5+ runs in the year, 8/14 had 6+ runs in year
  • # of runs from 2012: 5-8-4-3-3-9-4-7-2 (tendency to less, '20 winner lightest raced in the season ever)
  • Seasonal run breakdown: 2-1/3-2/4-2/5-1/6-2/7-1/8-2/9-2/10-1
  • Layoff: 11/14 27-42 days ('18 winner 70 days, '19 winner 20 days)
  • 8/14 'turned back' in distance (2/4 exceptions were Goldencents)
  • Top 3 favourites: Fav 3/14; 2nd fav 3/14; 3rd fav 1/14 [7/14 outside top 3 in betting]
  • Age 3-4/4-8/5-1/6-1 = 12/14 aged 3 or 4yo
  • 13/14 had won a Graded Stakes in career
  • 9/14 had won at a mile (not '20 winner)

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m3f, Turf) (22 renewals to date)

  • US/import 12 Europe 10
  • 8/8 US winners 1st/2nd LTO; 3/4 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/10 Euro 1st LTO!
  • Layoff: US/import 10/12 35 days or less; '18 winner off 84 days (Chad)); Euro, anything goes!
  • Age: 3-6 (all Euro, including 16, 17 & 19 winners); 4-10; 5-4; 6 or more-1
  • Since 2007, Euro 3yo: 4, US: 8, Euro 4yo+: 2
  • 20/22 - 4-7 runs this season (other 2 had 3 starts)
  • 9 of 12 US winners had a race at Keeneland that season
  • Since 2012, Chad Brown 4 Europe 5 (all 11/1 or shorter, 2nd with the fav in 2020 from 4 starters)
  • Del Mar start makes life potentially tricky for very low and high stalls

Breeders' Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt) (37 renewals to date)

  • 2007-2019, the BC Sprint winners came into the race with a combined 80/150 lifetime win record (53%)
  • Whitmore in 2020 was 14/37 lifetime (38%)
  • Last 29 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
  • 35/37 won a G1-3 that season
  • 1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle
  • 22 of the last 28 had 2+ 6f wins that season
  • 13 of the last 23 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners
  • 12 of last 17 winners had 5 or fewer seasonal starts ('19 & '20 winners 6 starts)
  • 20 of last 27 winners showed a bullet workout
  • 28 of last 29 winners notched at least 103 Beyer in same season

Breeders' Cup Mile (1m, Turf) (37 renewals to date)

  • 18 of last 19 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
  • 16/19 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exceptions, Euros Karakontie 2014, Expert Eye 2018, Order of Australia 2020)
  • Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
  • 16 of the last 25 were US winners; 7 French-trained (UK/Ire 2 for 81 since 1995, Expert Eye in 2018, Order of Australia 2020)
  • Only Goldikova (x3), Karakontie, Expert Eye, Order of Australia have stemmed US dominance since 2004
  • 9/11 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 12/13 5yo+ winners were US (exception Goldikova #3)
  • Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win (Expert Eye, Order of Australia no G1 win)
  • 24 of the last 27 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner (Order of Australia an exception)
  • Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 141, 1st 81 (57%), 2nd 30 (21%)
  • Thus, the last 19 BC Mile winners had a collective 78% 1-2 record at the distance
  • No front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt) (37 renewals to date)

  • 29/37 won by 3 or 4yo's ('19 winner 6yo, '20 winner 5yo though missed entire 4yo season)
  • 17/37 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 19)
  • 36/37 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out
  • 21 of the last 30 winners ran 6-8 times in the year ('19 winner 5 runs, '20 winner 3 runs)
  • 27/33 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already
  • Layoff: 29/37 35 days or less ('20 winner off 64 days)
  • 26/33 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1 in same year
  • The favourite is 16/37 (43% SR)
  • 34/37 had recorded a Beyer of 100+

Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf) (37 renewals to date)

  • 25/26 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found in 2015 the exception)
  • Layoff: US 35 days or less (19 winner off 3 months); Euro any
  • 37/37 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/56
  • Euro 3yo's 7; US 3yo's 2 (last one in 1989)
  • 29/37 won G1 that season (7/8 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 13/1). US *MUST* have won G1 same season
  • 12/23 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (not usually the 'obvious' one, though Enable doubled up in '18)
  • Arc winners are 1/7 in same season (Enable first horse to do the double)
  • 8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning that key prep ()
  • 24/27 since '94 had 3-8 starts - 3-5; 4 or 5-7; 6 to 8-12 (5 of last 9 had 6-8 seasonal runs, Enable won off just 2 runs in '18, Tarnawa off 3 in '20)
  • Every winner to have had at least two 1m4f runs won or was 100% ITM at the distance
  • Europe 16 1/2 US 5 1/2 since 1999 (2xUS winners trained Graham Motion, Englishman)

Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt) (37 renewals so far)

  • All of the last 20 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season
  • 36/37 ran 1-2-3 LTO (22 x 1st; 9 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)
  • 33/37 won a G1 that season
  • 37/37 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/33) – 3yo 12 wins; 4yo 15 wins; 5yo 9 wins. (Tom's D'Etat 7/2, aged 7 in 2020, finished 2nd last)
  • 21 of last 32 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run
  • 10/11 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run
  • 10/13 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro)
  • 21 of the last 25 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best ('19 winner, 106, new Beyer top; '20 winner, 105, equalled his top Beyer)
  • Where no distance form, check breeding for stamina credentials

 

Good luck!

Doncaster Draw and Pace Bias On The Straight Track

As we move towards the jumps season the quality of Saturday flat recent declines, and we start seeing live weekend racing from Cheltenham once again.

Don't forget that Geegeez Gold is completely free from 18th October 2021 to 27th October 2021 inclusive. You just need to ensure you are a free registered user to gain your free access. Click here to become a free registered user.

There is still pretty good racing from Doncaster though on Saturday, including Group 1 action, and it’s worth noting that seven of the eight races at Doncaster on Saturday will be run on the straight course. This must therefore be the ideal opportunity to investigate potential draw and pace biases at Doncaster on softer ground, which tends to dominate conditions at this time of year.

Doncaster Straight Course Draw Bias On Softer Ground

On straight courses you don’t tend to see draw biases change over different distances so we can look at a collection of distances together to get as much data as possible at courses such as Doncaster.


Overall across these distances there seems very little between the data for each draw type. The win percentages and place percentages are all pretty similar whilst the PRB figures suggest high is maybe slightly better with a PRB of 0.52 compared to 0.49 for both low and middle.

This data probably means one of two things. The first is that there is simply no real draw bias at Doncaster and you can have a pretty much even chance whichever part of the course you race on.

The second possibility is that at different points in the year there can be varying biases in the course and sometimes it’s better to be drawn a bit lower, and sometimes it’s better to be drawn higher. This can be the case at Ascot and is probably the case here too.

At the Lincoln meeting in 2021 for example, a high draw seemed very important. At this meeting in 2020 a low draw seemed an advantage.

If betting before a meeting begins, going for something towards the middle might be the safest option as you’ll never be too far away from favoured part of the course (if there is one). If possible it could be best to hold bets until a few races have developed. Even then though, the jockeys can suddenly explore a different part of the track and decide that is the favoured side.

Doncaster Straight Course Pace Bias On Softer Ground

Is the pace bias going to be any easier to predict? Front runners tend to be favoured more over shorter trips so it’s a good idea to look at each straight course distance separately this time.

Doncaster 5f Pace Bias

This shows why it is good to compare both win and place percentages. Amazingly from the above sample, which is for biggish fields on good or worse ground, no front runners have won which obviously gives them a 0% win strike rate. That’s pretty rare for the minimum distance! However the best place percentage of these run styles belongs to none other than front runners - they have a 25% place strike rate.

Prominent run styles here over the minimum dominant in terms of win percentages and provide by far more winners than any other run type. They are also only just behind front runners in terms of place percentage so it seems being close to the pace is definitely an advantage, as it is at most courses over 5f. But being right on the pace in bigger fields must leave you vulnerable here in the final furlong handing the advantage, as far as winning is concerned, to the prominent racers.

Given an advantage for prominent racers and front runners you’d expect mid division to perform better than held up but although it’s close, held up actually edges mid division. It’s certainly not the case that it’s impossible to come from way off the pace here over 5f and granted a decent early gallop and good form it would be unwise to be completely put off those that are patiently ridden but it’s definitely worth marking up those that race prominently in many races over this trip.

Doncaster 6f Pace Bias

The prominent racer bias doesn’t lend itself to all sprint trips here, over 6f the pendulum swings firmly in favour of front runners, despite the large field sizes in the sample.

Front runners impressively dominate and produce very healthy win and each way profits. There is no reason I can think of why they should be more effective over 6f than 5f but it simply seems to be the case.

Prominent racers actually fare worst of all now but only marginally worse than mid division or held up. This again suggests that just because there is an advantage towards either front runners or prominent racers, it is not a huge disadvantage to be held up.

So just as was the case with 5f, don’t rule out anything based on run style but do mark up the chances of a certain run style, this time front runners.

Doncaster 7f Pace Bias

Over 7f we are seeing a much fairer spread of results, in fact a remarkably even spread!

There is barely 1.5% between the win percentages and less than 3% between the place percentages.

It’s impossible to say any run style is either advantaged or disadvantaged over 7f at Doncaster away from fast ground. The main takeaway here could be to upgrade those that race in mid division or are held up that ran well enough last time out at a pace favouring track as they are likely to improve on that run this time around, assuming other conditions are in their favour.

Doncaster 1m Pace Bias

Over 5f we saw a slightly confusing win percentage and place percentage combination for front runners and it happens again over a mile.

The win percentages would have you believe that front running is the best run style over a mile here whereas the place percentages suggest it is the worst. There are a couple of things to consider with this.

A relatively small sample size means more emphasis should be put on the place data rather than win data, whilst still respecting the win data. On top of that we should also be looking at the trajectory of data for the other run styles.

The win percentages are pretty even for the other three run styles whilst the place percentages are also pretty even, but improve for those held up. Given the best place percentage is for held up and the worst place percentage is for front runners that seems to suggest the further off the pace you are the better. It’s worth noting though that there aren’t great jumps in the figures from one run style to another so just like the 7f distance this looks a pretty fair distance but preference begins to go towards the hold up performers, whereas it was with front runners over 6f and prominent racers over 5f.

Overall, it is no surprise that the shorter distances favour those nearer the pace, that’s a common theme in racing, but those that race nearer the rear still have a fair record over the shorter trips and that record improves dramatically over a little further suggesting Doncaster is a track that favours patience more than many others.

4.20 Doncaster - Virgin Bet Handicap Preview

This 5f handicap is comfortably the most interesting race on the card for me. A turn out of 15 runners is slightly disappointing from an each way perspective but as is often the case these days, most bookies are offering 4 places on this race as standard and a couple are even offering 5 places which gives the each way betting a more appealing feel.

I often start my analysis of a race with the pace map and that looks a good starting point here.

There looks to be at least 4 front runners in this and they are Indian Sounds, El Astronaute, Dakota Gold and Copper Knight. The first three of those are drawn relatively close together in the lower numbers and Copper Knight should give the higher numbers a good tow.

The pace data here over 5f suggests that prominent racers should be marked up but it’s worth remembering that the more patiently ridden runners do go well here too and with a likely contested speed they could end up just as advantaged as those nearer the pace, if not more so.

I’m going to declare early that I think those nearer the head of the betting could dominate this. If picking a bit of ‘each way value’ at double figure prices I’d suggest that Zim Baby (25/1) is overpriced and will enjoy the ground and a thorough test at this trip. He was 3rd in a listed contest here 12 months ago and although he hasn’t got his head in front this term he was beaten just a nose on soft ground at Ripon off a 1lb higher mark earlier this season and he’s run as if in form on his last three starts, all of which came on ground that would have been too fast. The bookies have him beating just one home, he’ll do much better than that.

Other than that I’d expect Sunday Sovereign to run well as he enjoys this sort of ground and did well to get as close as he did last time out at Catterick given he came from off the pace and the other four who finished around him raced closer to the pace. He doesn’t hold too many secrets from the handicapper though and is ‘only’ 9/1.

He was behind Zargun on that occasion, who opposes here. Based on weight for distance Sunday Sovereign should pretty much dead heat with Zargun here but given the pace favouring profile of Catterick compared to Doncaster I’d expect Sunday Sovereign to finish ahead of Zargun this time around.

Another who should finish ahead of Zargun is Illusionist. Illusionist beat Zargun at York a couple of weeks ago by a neck and is also 3lbs better off here thanks to Zargun franking that form since. Again, Zargun also loses out on the fact that he very much got the run of the race at York whereas Illusionist didn’t. So that’s two I have finishing ahead of the relatively short priced Zargun.

On the subject of that Illusionist win at York, it really is a performance worth watching if you have that option and haven’t seen it already. Not only did nothing else come from off the pace in that race, nothing made any inroads off the pace all day at York. His performance, when coming from last to first, really should be marked up significantly.

Then there is the strength of that race. Zargun, the runner up, won next time out whilst the 4th finished a fair 3rd next time. This, in combination with how well he did to come from last to win, suggests a 5lb rise is very lenient. He now runs off 89 and he was beaten a short head last season off this mark by Live In The Moment - that runner has subsequently rated 15lbs higher.

For a horse that so clearly wants softer ground, Illusionist hasn’t run on it that many times which still leaves him unexposed in such conditions. His form figures on good to soft or worse read 5620311. That in itself doesn’t look overly impressive but the 5th came in a listed race at Royal Ascot, the 6th came in a 21 runner handicap at Royal Ascot and the 0 came in last season’s Ayr Silver Cup when he didn’t quite seem ready for 6f. He’s won both runs on softish ground this season and his form figures in fields of 20 or less in softish ground are 2311.

Illusionist is clearly one I am very interested in at around 7/1, as you’ll be able to tell, and another is Boundless Power, who is a slightly shorter price. He was a winner last time out in heavy ground at Ascot and before that found only subsequent Group 3 winner Hurricane Ivor too good in the Portland here. He’s 4lbs higher than that win and 7lbs higher than his Portland run but since being gelded in April he has produced form figures of 12121 over 5f with cut in the ground so he’s clearly a major player here.

He doesn’t really have any recent ‘hot form’ to note like Illusionist does but his 5th at Ascot in July is worth examining.

Pretty much every horse that ran well has since franked the form, even the winner, who hasn’t won again since, has run well enough in group company. Boundless Power bumped into plenty of improvers that day and this came on good ground, not soft ground. He is 6lbs higher this time around but this race is unlikely to be as strong as that Ascot race was and conditions will suit more here too so he’s certainly entitled to go close.

Raasel is the unexposed one in the line up, from the same yard as Boundless Power. With these two runners, Mick Appleby has the first two in the betting so it will be interesting to see which direction they each go in the betting.

A 201 day break seemed to do the trick for Raasel as he’s won three on the bounce since, all relatively comfortably and certainly more comfortable than the winning distances suggest. Those races did lack strength in depth though so whilst it’s impossible to say he doesn’t have more left in the tank, it’s also difficult to prove he’s necessarily ahead of his mark of 81, having gone up a total of 8lbs for his hat trick of wins. He’ll certainly need to be as he’s actually racing off 85 here, 7lbs higher than his last win, due to the fact that he’s 4lbs out of the handicap. It’s easy to understand why connections are taking that chance with the prize money on offer but as a punter I hate backing horses that are out of the handicap , certainly by this much, and I feel the bookies don’t fully account for that with their prices. Had he been raised 7lbs for his last win I think he’d be a bigger price here despite the fact that he’s still running from a 7lb higher mark.

I was already willing to chance Illusionist and Boundless Power against Raasel even off his correct mark. I realise Adam Farragher takes off ‘the handy 5lbs’ as they say but that’s what apprentices do anyway and his lowest riding weight in the past 12 months is 7-10, 4lbs lower than the weight Raasel should carry here so it will be interesting to see if he can shave an extra 1lb off that to use his full claim.

Either way my two against the field are ILLUSIONIST and Boundless Power, with slight preference for the former because he’s had fewer chances in ideal conditions and did extremely well to win a warm race last time out. I’ll probably have a small saver on Boundless Power, who I think is almost certain to be in the first four, and I’ll be very interested in a reverse forecast too given I think this race lacks real strength in depth. I'm generally not one for backing last time out winners but I will do when I still think they offer value.

Others To Note At Doncaster

One runner I am quite interested in for the 2.05pm at Doncaster is Another Batt. This is a wide open handicap but Another Batt ran well last time out when a lot of things weren’t in his favour.

He ran the same day as Illusionist when York was heavily favouring front runner, even more than it often does. He was 6th in a 20 runner mile handicap and he finished a running on 6th, doing best of those held up and doing so from stall 20 which is rarely the place to be over a mile at York.

The mile probably didn’t play to his strengths either, all seven of his wins have come over shorter and he’s even effective at 6f. His most recent win was a comfortable one off a 1lb lower mark and although he’s not the most consistent it looks as though he has been freshened up by a break and is back to form. Everything should be in his favour here so I’m expecting a big run from him at a decent price. He's not necessarily the most likely winner (there are some interesting 3yos) but I'd fancy him as an each way punt.

One runner I am sadly against on Saturday is Aaddeey who runs in the 2.40pm at Doncaster. I say sadly because this is very much a horse on my radar as being well handicapped but he’s been running on the wrong ground nearly all season. He’s well handicapped on several pieces of form, none more so than when beating Rodrigo Diaz by 4.5 lengths. He’s now 12lbs higher because of that but that rival is now rated 22lbs higher!

So why the lack of interest on Saturday? The ground has once again gone against him for a start. Even more reason to oppose him is the record of Simon and Ed Crisford’s runners after a 60+ day break. Aaddeey has seemingly had a slight problem because when the ground suddenly came right for him a couple of months ago he was completely absent from the races you’d expect him to be running in. He’s been off 84 days and although he went well fresh on seasonal debut, Simon and Ed Crisford’s runners have achieved a PRB of just 0.34 with handicap runners in the past 90 days returning from a 60+ day break whereas their total handicap runners in the same period have a PRB of 0.51. Those disappointments include runners at 3/1, 4/1, and 4/1 and the common theme has been that they are weak at the finish.

Reading between the lines, he’s had an issue and the target this season is going to be the November Handicap back here in a couple of weeks’ time. The ground may well go against him there again but this has the look of a prep run and for a horse rated 99, do they really want to win here and carry another 5lbs or 6lbs in the big one? Unlikely. The ideal scenario for me, who desperately wants to be on Aaddeey when he does win, is an okay performance here without winning and then he turns up in the November Handicap after an unseasonal dry and warm spell in the next fortnight. That might be wishful thinking but he won’t be carrying my money here. I’d much rather back Rhythmic Intent in this at the same sort of price in a race that admittedly probably isn’t going to take a great deal of winning.

Ascot Champions Day Draw And Pace Bias

There is no debate about where the top action is this weekend. It’s Champions Day and all eyes will be on Ascot.

The course biases won’t be seen to full effect in the smaller field Group races but these races do attract bigger fields and there is also the big field Balmoral Handicap so Ascot course biases should still be on show on Champions Day.

The key thing to consider here is the changing course biases as the year goes on at Ascot. We can often see a very strong draw bias at Ascot in October which could help us narrow down some of the more difficult races.

Ascot Straight Track Draw Bias In October

It often pays to be on the near side of the track (high numbers) for the early part of the year at Ascot but does that change in October?

This table shows results at Ascot from the past five years in straight track races in fields of 16 or more.

We only have 14 races to look at which means a small sample, so a pinch of salt is taken with this data, but this is what it seems to say.

Firstly, 10 of these 14 races were won by single figure stalls. That means 71% of the winners have come from 50.6% of the runners, those that were drawn lowest. A tick for lower draws when it comes to finding the winners.

How about the places? Well the four best EW PL figures belong to stalls 4, 1, 8 and 7. In total 39 out of 53 places belong to stall 10 or lower, that’s 73.6% of places from 56.2% of the lowest drawn runners.

So that certainly seems to more than hint at lower draws having an advantage on the straight track at Ascot in October and the draw bias could be as strong as ever this year as the low draw bias seems to be increasing if anything.

Looking at the Balmoral Handicap, 5 of the last 6 winners have been drawn 10 or below but Escobar did win from stall 21 in 2019. In fact that year the first two home were drawn in stalls 21 and 20. However the runners raced on the far side of the course that day too and Escobar finished right on the far rail so he very much overcame his high draw rather than won because of it.

In 2020 4 of the first 5 home were drawn in stalls 7 or lower, again showing a low draw bias, and we saw another strong bias in the 2021 Challenge Cup with just three runners exploring the far side of the track and two of those pulling clear of the field.

So in the bigger field races on Ascot’s straight track at this year’s Champions Day I’ll be trying to concentrate on lower drawn runners where possible.

Ascot Pace Bias

Ascot is often considered a course where hold up performers do well, especially the mile distance, and this is backed up with data.

The table above shows the record of horses held up early across all race distances at Ascot and the distance where hold up performers have the best place percentage is a mile.

When you look at the pace analyser data for Ascot’s mile in 16+ runner handicaps away from fast ground (the ground is very unlikely to ever be good to firm on Champions Day) it is clear that the closer you are to the pace, the more compromised your chance is.

A massive 20 of these 24 races have been won by horses that race either in mid division or are held up in the rear. Looking at the place percentages, front runners have just an 8.7% place strike rate compared to 10.79% for prominent, 17.86% for mid division and 25.51% for held up. Those are some hefty jumps between figures and go to show the best run styles for Ascot’s mile.

Balmoral Handicap Preview

The race that I’m most interested in from a betting point of view on Saturday is the Balmoral Handicap.

Let’s first have a look at the pace map for this contest.

There should be no shortage of pace with four potential front runners all drawn next to each other in the middle to high section of the draw. Shelir also made the running last time out so there could be quite the early burn up.

Given there is plenty of pace towards the higher end of the draw it’s very possible that some of this pace stays near side and doesn’t track over the to the far side. If that happens it would increase the chances of the more patiently ridden higher drawn runners staying near side rather than following the pace across to the far side.

If that does happen there is still some pace amongst the lower numbers. Marie's Diamond often makes the running as can Rhoscolyn.

It doesn't seem the the betting for this race has adjusted enough for the draw and that is hopefully something we can take advantage of. Given the pace data above and the pace setup for this race I’m still convinced that low numbers are the place to be with preference for those held up.

John Gosden seems to target this race, just like he seems to target the Cambridgeshire, but whilst he has a decent recent strike rate in that Newmarket race he is yet to win this contest. He’s had the beaten favourite in 2018 and 2019, although he certainly had a well handicapped horse in 2019, Lord North was runner up off 110 and subsequently rated 123.

This year he has the first two in the early betting, plus Magical Morning a little further down the list. The well bred Kingman half brother Sunray Major could be anything having won both starts this season, including a 7f handicap here last time out. A 6lb penalty for winning a 17 runner handicap comfortably last time looks fine but he’s drawn in stall 21. He’s going to have to either stick to his side of the course which will probably cost him his chance or track over, which can be done, but it means he’s covering more ground than anything else.

Gosden’s other runner in this is King Leonidas. He’s seemingly done much better with the draw in stall 8 and he looks well handicapped based on the form of his Newmarket novice win early last year. He was disappointing in the Jersey Stakes here after that though and subsequently missed 454 days of action before a promising return in a competitive Newbury handicap over 10f. He was poorly placed in that event and stayed on well but doesn’t look good value on the limited evidence that is his form, for all he has to be respected as a lowish drawn, lightly raced hold up performer.

There are quite a few I like here and one that I’m worried about the ground for is Nugget. This is a horse who I thought would absolutely love the Royal Hunt Cup but unfortunately he picked up an injury in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and missed the majority of the summer. He returned with a slightly workmanlike win at Haydock and he’s gone up another 3lbs for that. The form of his early season runs is very strong but he’s never raced on anything softer than good before and that seems to be more by design than coincidence. The ground will probably be just the good side of good to soft so it’s hardly going to be desperate but you have to be ruthless to narrow down these big fields so I’m going to reluctantly give him a miss, for all I still think he has a big handicap in him.

Aldaary is another I like. His draw actually put me off when he won last time out because most of the action on the previous day had developed on the other side of the course (hopefully I don't get the draw wrong again here!). He loved the softer ground that day and a 6lb penalty is unlikely to stop him. His worst run this season came on his only try at this distance but he’s shaped all season as though he wants it and he’s been extremely consistent at Ascot this year (form figures of 1551 in some super competitive handicaps). He’s also won 4 out of 5 on ground softer than good. His draw in stall 11 should be just about okay and thanks to the presence of the Gosden runners he’s actually a very fair price at around 9/1. At the very least he’s worth an each way saver with bookies paying six or even seven places. There is better value elsewhere though.

Escobar is interesting. He runs off a 1lb higher mark than he won this two years ago, beating the well handicapped Lord North comfortably. Despite plenty of placed efforts since that was actually the last time he won and he is finding it difficult to get his head in front these days. He was slightly disappointing last time here too so although better is expected this time around, especially with the step back up in trip likely to suit, he appeals as a place only bet if anything. He’s nicely drawn in stall 2.

I can’t completely rule out Rhoscolyn based on his effort in the Goodwood Golden Mile Handicap, which was run on similar ground to this. He was a neck ahead of Escobar that day and is 1lb better off here. He’s well drawn in stall 5 but he does seem to get on very well with Goodwood and is probably slightly better over an easy mile if anything. Given his draw he could easily run into the places but there are certainly others with better chances.

There was understandably a big plunge on Sir Busker on Thursday evening and it’s easy to understand why. He seemingly has a great draw in stall 3 and his record over Ascot’s straight mile is excellent. He won the Royal Hunt Cup consolation in 2020 off a 19lb lower mark but continued to improve and was 4th in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last season, just half a length behind Palace Pier. This season he was 3rd here at listed level on ground that would have been far too fast, still doing best of those held up and then it was the same story again in the Queen Anne Stakes. Given he’d improve for softer ground that was a serious effort. He’s maintained his form well since despite largely running at venues that haven’t suited his run style.

Now trying to translate Group form into handicaps can be expensive for punters but I can make a case for him still off a mark of 111 based on two handicap runs from last season (he hasn’t run in handicap company this year). He might have been 19lbs lower when winning the Royal Hunt Cup consolation but the ground would have been fast enough that day and the runner up has since rated 16lbs higher which definitely makes winning off this sort of mark within reach. He’s also proved he can run well off much higher marks. His last handicap run came at York, a course that wouldn’t suit him as well as Ascot, but he still managed to finish a neck 2nd off a 4lb lower mark.

The 3rd won a Group 3 on his next start, the 5th won on his next start at a mile and the 6th won next time out. A reproduction of this form would see Sir Busker go close. If he has improved since then or improves for Ascot’s straight mile and/or the softer ground he has a huge chance of winning. If you didn’t get the fancy prices on Thursday though you’ve probably missed the boat (still 25/1 with bet365 at the time of writing but that will probably be gone by the time this is published).

If the value call isn’t Sir Busker then it must be Accidental Agent, another Ascot straight course specialist. He’s getting on a bit now and his Queen Anne win is now more than three years ago but that effort proves just how effective he can be here. He also won the 2017 Challenge Cup over 7f here off a 3lb lower mark and was 4th in this race that year off a 3lb higher mark when not getting a clear run at things.

He's been in decent form this season since a wind op and won at Newmarket off a 3lbs lower mark. Now this race is more competitive than that but it was still hot form.

The 2nd, 4th and 5th have all won handicaps since suggesting a 3lbs higher mark really shouldn’t be beyond him. He was seemingly below par or outclassed in a Salisbury Group 3 next time but there was nothing wrong with his 2nd to subsequent Group 3 winner Al Suhail next time out. He outran his odds in the Group 3 Joel Stakes and then ran okay here in the Challenge Cup on heavy ground, doing 3rd best of those who raced in the centre and best of all out of those that were held up in the race. Fresh ‘won’ the race in the centre and he’s probably still a group horse in a handicap whilst Tomfre was 2nd in the centre and he was 2nd at Leicester this week on ground that was probably a bit fast for him. Stall 4 and a decent pace over a mile on this straight track should be the ideal setup for ACCIDENTAL AGENT and I think he offers huge each way value at prices as big as 50/1.

Next on my shortlist would be Sir Busker, Aldaary and Escobar in that order.

Breeders’ Cup 2021: Video Form Guide

In the table below are links to past performance videos for most the 2021 Breeders' Cup contenders.

The table is fully sortable, and contains a search function to locate a particular horse or race.

BC RaceContenderDatePast PerformanceTrackGradePositionVideo
Turf SprintChaos Theory01/01/2021Joe Hernandez StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way01/01/2021Janus StakesGULFSTREAM PARK3Video
ClassicMedina Spirit02/01/2021Sham StakesSANTA ANITA PARK32Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good02/01/2021Sham StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Turf SprintFirecrow04/01/2021Sam's Town StakesDELTA DOWNS5No Video Available
MileCasa Creed09/01/2021Tropical Turf StakesGULFSTREAM PARK32Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed09/01/2021Tropical Turf StakesGULFSTREAM PARK32Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia09/01/2021Las Cienegas StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfQueen Supreme (IRE)09/01/2021Cartier Paddock StakesKENILWORTH11Video
MileQueen Supreme (IRE)09/01/2021Cartier Paddock StakesKENILWORTH11Video
Turf SprintFast Boat16/01/2021Duncan F. Kenner StakesFAIR GROUNDS4Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso16/01/2021Wayward Lass StakesTAMPA BAY DOWNS3Video
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)20/01/2021TCK Jo-o HaiOI1No Video Available
Dirt MileSilver State23/01/2021Fifth Season StakesOAKLAWN PARK1Video
ClassicKnicks Go23/01/2021Pegasus World Cup Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK11Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall23/01/2021Pegasus World Cup Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK13Video
TurfCross Border23/01/2021Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK13Video
TurfChannel Cat23/01/2021W. L. McKnight StakesGULFSTREAM PARK35Video
Dirt MilePingxiang30/01/2021Gintei StakesTOKYO2No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfQueen Supreme (IRE)30/01/2021Cape Town MetKENILWORTH110Video
MileQueen Supreme (IRE)30/01/2021Cape Town MetKENILWORTH110Video
ClassicExpress Train30/01/2021San Pasqual StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie30/01/2021Robert B. Lewis StakesSANTA ANITA PARK33Video
ClassicMedina Spirit30/01/2021Robert B. Lewis StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Turf SprintCarotari31/01/2021Pulse Power Turf Sprint StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK2No Video Available
Turf SprintFast Boat31/01/2021Pulse Power Turf Sprint StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK1No Video Available
ClassicLetruska31/01/2021Houston Ladies Classic StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK31Video
DistaffLetruska31/01/2021Houston Ladies Classic StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK31Video
DistaffBlue Stripe (ARG)05/02/2021Haras ArgentinosHIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO1No Video Available
Turf SprintBeer Can Man05/02/2021Baffle StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
MileHit the Road06/02/2021Thunder Road StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
SprintFlagstaff06/02/2021King Cotton StakesOAKLAWN PARK4Video
SprintMucho06/02/2021King Cotton StakesOAKLAWN PARK6Video
MileVin de Garde (JPN)07/02/2021Tokyo Shimbun HaiTOKYO34Video
DistaffClairiere13/02/2021Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-TiptonFAIR GROUNDS21Video
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)14/02/2021Kyoto KinenHANSHIN21Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)14/02/2021Kyoto KinenHANSHIN21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)14/02/2021Sweet Life StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso20/02/2021Runhappy Barbara Fritchie StakesLAUREL PARK32Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia20/02/2021Buena Vista StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas20/02/2021Buena Vista StakesSANTA ANITA PARK24Video
ClassicKnicks Go20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE14Video
ClassicMax Player20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE111Video
ClassicMishriff (IRE)20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE11Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE11Video
SprintMatera Sky20/02/2021Saudi Arabian Airlines Riyadh Dirt SprintKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE2Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)20/02/2021STC 1351 Turf Sprint CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE1Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way24/02/2021Turf Dash StakesTAMPA BAY DOWNS1Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)25/02/2021Meydan Classic Sponsored By Agnc3MEYDAN RACECOURSE2Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess27/02/2021The Very One StakesGULFSTREAM PARK35No Video Available
Turf SprintGear Jockey27/02/2021Canadian Turf StakesGULFSTREAM PARK33Video
SprintJackie's Warrior27/02/2021Southwest StakesOAKLAWN PARK33Video
MileGot Stormy27/02/2021Honey Fox StakesGULFSTREAM PARK31Video
MileDuhail (IRE)02/03/2021P AnabaaCHANTILLY1No Video Available
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)04/03/2021Empress HaiKAWASAKI1No Video Available
DistaffBlue Stripe (ARG)06/03/2021Arturo R. y Arturo BullrichHIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO21No Video Available
Dirt MilePingxiang06/03/2021Harima StakesHANSHIN10No Video Available
ClassicExpress Train06/03/2021Santa Anita H.SANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall06/03/2021Santa Anita H.SANTA ANITA PARK14Video
ClassicMedina Spirit06/03/2021San Felipe StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good06/03/2021San Felipe StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)06/03/2021China Doll StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
MileCasa Creed06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK16Video
MileHit the Road06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
MileSmooth Like Strait06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK16Video
ClassicLetruska13/03/2021Azeri StakesOAKLAWN PARK22Video
DistaffLetruska13/03/2021Azeri StakesOAKLAWN PARK22Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil13/03/2021Azeri StakesOAKLAWN PARK21Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By13/03/2021Beholder Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Turf SprintCarotari13/03/2021Silks Run StakesGULFSTREAM PARK1Video
SprintC Z Rocket13/03/2021Hot Springs StakesOAKLAWN PARK1Video
SprintFlagstaff13/03/2021Hot Springs StakesOAKLAWN PARK3Video
Turf SprintFirecrow13/03/2021Hot Springs StakesOAKLAWN PARK4Video
Dirt MileSilver State13/03/2021Essex H.OAKLAWN PARK1Video
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)15/03/2021Monterrico 335HIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO1No Video Available
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)19/03/2021Dundalkstadium.com RaceDUNDALK1Video
MileGrenadier Guards (JPN)20/03/2021Chunichi Sports Sho Falcon StakesCHUKYO32No Video Available
DistaffClairiere20/03/2021TwinspireStakescom Fair Grounds OaksFAIR GROUNDS22Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie20/03/2021TwinspireStakescom Louisiana DerbyFAIR GROUNDS21Video
TurfUnited20/03/2021San Luis Rey StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)21/03/2021Prix ExburySAINT CLOUD32Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)27/03/2021Unibet Cammidge TrophyDONCASTER2No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)27/03/2021Unibet Doncaster MileDONCASTER10No Video Available
MileVin de Garde (JPN)27/03/2021Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP WorldMEYDAN RACECOURSE12Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)27/03/2021Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Azizi DevelopmentsMEYDAN RACECOURSE19Video
ClassicMishriff (IRE)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE11Video
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE13Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE11Video
SprintMatera Sky27/03/2021Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Gulf NewsMEYDAN RACECOURSE112Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess27/03/2021Orchid StakesGULFSTREAM PARK31Video
TurfCross Border27/03/2021Pan American Stakes Presented by Rood and RiddleGULFSTREAM PARK23Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas27/03/2021Santa Ana StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfTenebrism28/03/2021Irish Stallion Farms Ebf MaidenNAAS1No Video Available
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence28/03/2021Santana Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
MileRestrainedvengence28/03/2021Santana Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
DistaffMalathaat03/04/2021Central Bank Ashland StakesKEENELAND11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)03/04/2021Irish Stallion Farms Ebf MaidenCORK2Video
ClassicMedina Spirit03/04/2021RUNHAPPY Santa Anita DerbySANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way03/04/2021Shakertown StakesKEENELAND23Video
Dirt MileMind Control03/04/2021Carter H.AQUEDUCT12Video
SprintMind Control03/04/2021Carter H.AQUEDUCT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia03/04/2021Royal Heroine StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag03/04/2021Royal Heroine StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)03/04/2021Providencia StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MileDuhail (IRE)03/04/2021Prix Edmond BlancSAINT CLOUD32Video
SprintFlagstaff03/04/2021Commonwealth StakesKEENELAND31Video
SprintMucho03/04/2021Commonwealth StakesKEENELAND35Video
SprintSpecial Reserve03/04/2021Commonwealth StakesKEENELAND32Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One03/04/2021Madison StakesKEENELAND12Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso03/04/2021Madison StakesKEENELAND12Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin03/04/2021Madison StakesKEENELAND17Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine04/04/2021Las Flores StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)09/04/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.LEICESTER1No Video Available
MileHit the Road09/04/2021Maker's Mark Mile StakesKEENELAND15Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)09/04/2021Maker's Mark Mile StakesKEENELAND11Video
SprintC Z Rocket10/04/2021Count Fleet Sprint H.OAKLAWN PARK31Video
Filly & Mare SprintEdgeway10/04/2021Carousel StakesOAKLAWN PARK1Video
DistaffHorologist10/04/2021Top Flight Invitational StakesAQUEDUCT1Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)11/04/2021Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Two Thousand Guineas Trial StakesLEOPARDSTOWN1No Video Available
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)11/04/2021Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Two Thousand Guineas Trial StakesLEOPARDSTOWN12No Video Available
MileReal Appeal (GER)11/04/2021Leopardstown Members H.LEOPARDSTOWN1Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)14/04/2021Heritage StakesLEOPARDSTOWN1Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)14/04/2021Leopardstown Racecourse Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)LEOPARDSTOWN1Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)15/04/2021Bet365 Abernant StakesNEWMARKET33Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)15/04/2021Bet365 Craven StakesNEWMARKET31Video
DistaffBonny South16/04/2021Baird Doubledogdare StakesKEENELAND31Video
MileToro Strike17/04/2021EbfstallionStakescom Michael Foster Conditions Stakes (Class 3)THIRSK1No Video Available
TurfChannel Cat17/04/2021Elkhorn StakesKEENELAND22Video
ClassicLetruska17/04/2021Apple Blossom H.OAKLAWN PARK11Video
DistaffLetruska17/04/2021Apple Blossom H.OAKLAWN PARK11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)17/04/2021Irish Stallion Farms EBFCURRAGH2Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall17/04/2021Californian StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)17/04/2021Holden Plant Rentals Alleged StakesCURRAGH32Video
ClassicExpress Train17/04/2021Oaklawn H.OAKLAWN PARK23Video
Dirt MileSilver State17/04/2021Oaklawn H.OAKLAWN PARK21Video
TurfSealiway (FR)18/04/2021Prix de FontainebleauLONGCHAMP32No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)18/04/2021Prix de la GrotteLONGCHAMP36No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)18/04/2021Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham StakesNEWBURY33Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)19/04/2021British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)ROYAL WINDSOR1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)20/04/2021Racing Again At Tipperary On May 6th RaceTIPPERARY3No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)20/04/2021Yeomanstown Stud El Kabeir Irish Ebf Fillies MaidenTIPPERARY2Video
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)23/04/2021Monterrico 508HIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess23/04/2021Bewitch StakesKEENELAND31Video
TurfYibir (GB)23/04/2021Bet365 Classic TrialSANDOWN PARK33Video
MilePogo (IRE)24/04/2021Elusive Bloodstock E.B.F. Stallions King Richard III StakesLEICESTER1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)24/04/2021Sky Sports Racing Virgin 535 Ebf Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)DONCASTER1No Video Available
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence24/04/2021San Francisco Mile StakesGOLDEN GATE FIELDS33Video
MileRestrainedvengence24/04/2021San Francisco Mile StakesGOLDEN GATE FIELDS33Video
MileCasa Creed24/04/2021Elusive Quality StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed24/04/2021Elusive Quality StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By24/04/2021Santa Margarita StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Dirt MilePingxiang25/04/2021Kamakura StakesTOKYO1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)25/04/2021FWD Queen Elizabeth II CupSHA TIN11Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)25/04/2021FWD Queen Elizabeth II CupSHA TIN11Video
Juvenile FilliesAverly Jane28/04/2021Kentucky Juvenile StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS1No Video Available
DistaffClairiere30/04/2021Longines Kentucky OaksCHURCHILL DOWNS14Video
DistaffMalathaat30/04/2021Longines Kentucky OaksCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
Turf SprintCarotari30/04/2021Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by SyscoCHURCHILL DOWNS25Video
Turf SprintFast Boat30/04/2021Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by SyscoCHURCHILL DOWNS21Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil30/04/2021La Troienne Stakes presented by TwinspireStakescomCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
SprintJackie's Warrior01/05/2021Pat Day Mile Stakes presented by LG&E and KUCHURCHILL DOWNS21No Video Available
SprintLexitonian01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS12Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)01/05/2021QIPCO Two Thousand GuineasNEWMARKET12Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)01/05/2021QIPCO Two Thousand GuineasNEWMARKET11Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS14Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS13Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS12Video
DistaffBlue Stripe (ARG)01/05/2021CriadoresHIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO11Video
MileGot Stormy01/05/2021Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS25Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)01/05/2021Betfair Palace House StakesNEWMARKET33Video
MileIvar (BRZ)01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS16Video
MileSmooth Like Strait01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS13Video
TurfCross Border01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS17Video
TurfDomestic Spending (GB)01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
Dirt MileMind Control01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS17Video
SprintFlagstaff01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
SprintMind Control01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS17Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie01/05/2021Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford ReserveCHURCHILL DOWNS13Video
ClassicMedina Spirit01/05/2021Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford ReserveCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)01/05/2021Fort Marcy StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)01/05/2021Sheepshead Bay StakesBELMONT PARK24Video
MileDuhail (IRE)01/05/2021Prix du MuguetSAINT CLOUD21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)02/05/2021Prix Allez France LonginesLONGCHAMP36Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)02/05/2021QIPCO One Thousand GuineasNEWMARKET11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)03/05/2021GAIN First Flier StakesCURRAGH1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)03/05/2021Irish Ebf Stallion Auction Series MaidenCURRAGH1Video
TurfJapan (GB)06/05/2021Tote+ Pays You More At Tote.co.uk Ormonde StakesCHESTER31Video
TurfYibir (GB)06/05/2021Tote+ Biggest Dividends At Tote.co.uk Dee StakesCHESTER4Video
MileReal Appeal (GER)07/05/2021Mallow H.CORK3No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)07/05/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.ASCOT6Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)08/05/2021Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Blue Wind StakesNAAS31No Video Available
TurfChannel Cat08/05/2021Man o' War StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
TurfGufo08/05/2021Man o' War StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)08/05/2021Tote+ Placepots Pay More Novice Stakes (Class 3) (Gbb Race)ASCOT1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)08/05/2021Tote+ Placepots Pay More Novice Stakes (Class 3) (Gbb Race)ASCOT1Video
SprintFirenze Fire08/05/2021Runhappy StakesBELMONT PARK31Video
MileGrenadier Guards (JPN)09/05/2021NHK Mile CupTOKYO13Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)09/05/2021Irish One Thousand Guineas TrialLEOPARDSTOWN38Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/05/2021Tattersalls Musidora StakesYORK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)12/05/2021Tattersalls Musidora StakesYORK33Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/05/2021Tattersalls Musidora StakesYORK31Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)12/05/2021Duke Of York Clipper Logistics StakesYORK27Video
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)13/05/2021Constant Security ebfstallionStakescomYORK3No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)14/05/2021Langleys Solicitors British E.B.F. Marygate StakesYORK3No Video Available
DistaffHorologist14/05/2021Allaire DuPont Distaff Match Series StakesPIMLICO34Video
ClassicMax Player14/05/2021Pimlico Special Match Series StakesPIMLICO36Video
TurfArklow15/05/2021Louisville StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
TurfImperador (ARG)15/05/2021Louisville StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS36Video
SprintMucho15/05/2021Maryland Sprint Match Series StakesPIMLICO34Video
SprintSpecial Reserve15/05/2021Maryland Sprint Match Series StakesPIMLICO31Video
ClassicMedina Spirit15/05/2021Preakness StakesPIMLICO13Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)15/05/2021Al Shaqab Lockinge StakesNEWBURY18Video
MilePogo (IRE)15/05/2021Al Shaqab Lockinge StakesNEWBURY110Video
Turf SprintFirecrow15/05/2021Jim McKay Turf Sprint StakesPIMLICO1Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way15/05/2021Jim McKay Turf Sprint StakesPIMLICO2Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)16/05/2021Coolmore Stud Calyx RaceNAAS3No Video Available
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulainsLONGCHAMP16Video
TurfSealiway (FR)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulainsLONGCHAMP18Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulichesLONGCHAMP18Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulichesLONGCHAMP12Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)16/05/2021Goffs LackenNAAS31Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)16/05/2021Coolmore Stud Irish E.B.F. Fillies Sprint StakesNAAS32Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)21/05/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.HAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
TurfYibir (GB)21/05/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F. Cocked Hat StakesGOODWOOD2No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)22/05/2021Casumo Sandy Lane StakesHAYDOCK PARK210No Video Available
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)22/05/2021Heian StakesCHUKYO33No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)22/05/2021William Hill Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 3) (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (Gbb Race)YORK7No Video Available
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)22/05/2021GAIN Marble Hill StakesCURRAGH31Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)22/05/2021GAIN Marble Hill StakesCURRAGH35Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin22/05/2021Winning Colors StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By22/05/2021Santa Maria StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce22/05/2021Santa Maria StakesSANTA ANITA PARK24Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)22/05/2021Honeymoon StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)22/05/2021Tattersalls Irish Two Thousand GuineasCURRAGH12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)24/05/2021Ebc Group Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)WOLVERHAMPTON1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)28/05/2021Monterrico 672HIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO2No Video Available
MileToro Strike29/05/2021Betway John of Gaunt StakesHAYDOCK PARK36No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)29/05/2021Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (Gbb Race)BEVERLEY2No Video Available
TurfUnited29/05/2021Charles Whittingham StakesSANTA ANITA PARK24Video
Turf SprintBombard29/05/2021Daytona StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)30/05/2021Torquator Tasso-Trophy - Grafenberger Derby TrialDUSSELDORF2Video
MileDuhail (IRE)30/05/2021Prix du Palais-RoyalLONGCHAMP32Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)30/05/2021Prix du Palais-RoyalLONGCHAMP36Video
Turf SprintChaos Theory31/05/2021Chamberlain Bridge StakesLONE STAR PARK5No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfHelens Well (IRE)31/05/2021Irish Ebf Auction Series MaidenROSCOMMON4No Video Available
SprintC Z Rocket31/05/2021Steve Sexton Mile StakesLONE STAR PARK32Video
ClassicExpress Train31/05/2021Hollywood Gold Cup StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence31/05/2021Shoemaker Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
MileRestrainedvengence31/05/2021Shoemaker Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
MileSmooth Like Strait31/05/2021Shoemaker Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia31/05/2021Gamely StakesSANTA ANITA PARK16Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas31/05/2021Gamely StakesSANTA ANITA PARK15Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)01/06/2021Irish Ebf Median Sires Series RaceTIPPERARY1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)04/06/2021Tweenhills Supporting British Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 3) (Gbb Race)BATH & SOMERSET COUNTY2No Video Available
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso04/06/2021Bed o' Roses StakesBELMONT PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)04/06/2021Cazoo Oaks StakesEPSOM11Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)04/06/2021Cazoo Oaks StakesEPSOM110Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)04/06/2021Cazoo Oaks StakesEPSOM11Video
TurfJapan (GB)04/06/2021Coral Coronation CupEPSOM13Video
SprintFirenze Fire04/06/2021True North StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
SprintFlagstaff04/06/2021True North StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)04/06/2021New York StakesBELMONT PARK23Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)04/06/2021New York StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)05/06/2021European Breeders Fund Ebf Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)DONCASTER4No Video Available
Turf SprintCarotari05/06/2021Mighty Beau Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS3No Video Available
ClassicHot Rod Charlie05/06/2021Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA BetsBELMONT PARK12Video
Filly & Mare SprintVenetian Harbor05/06/2021Monrovia StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
ClassicLetruska05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
DistaffBonny South05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
DistaffLetruska05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK13Video
SprintJackie's Warrior05/06/2021Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Nassau County Industrial Development AgencyBELMONT PARK12Video
MileCasa Creed05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
MileGot Stormy05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK15Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
Turf SprintFast Boat05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK16Video
ClassicKnicks Go05/06/2021Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H.BELMONT PARK14Video
Dirt MileSilver State05/06/2021Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H.BELMONT PARK11Video
SprintLexitonian05/06/2021Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H.BELMONT PARK16Video
TurfChannel Cat05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK17Video
TurfDomestic Spending (GB)05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
TurfGufo05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK13Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK16Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
TurfSealiway (FR)06/06/2021Qatar Prix du Jockey ClubCHANTILLY12Video
Filly & Mare SprintBella Sofia06/06/2021Jersey Girl StakesBELMONT PARK2Video
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)09/06/2021Watch Racing TV NowHAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
MileReal Appeal (GER)10/06/2021Ballycorus StakesLEOPARDSTOWN31No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)11/06/2021Sir Eric Parker Memorial Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 4) (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Gbb Race)GOODWOOD2No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)11/06/2021Sky Bet Ganton StakesYORK1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)13/06/2021La CoupeLONGCHAMP33Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag13/06/2021Possibly Perfect StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)15/06/2021St. James's Palace StakesASCOT11Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)15/06/2021Queen Anne StakesASCOT12Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)15/06/2021Queen Anne StakesASCOT18Video
MilePogo (IRE)15/06/2021Queen Anne StakesASCOT15Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT213Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Gleaming (IRE)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT25Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)16/06/2021Prince Of Wales's StakesASCOT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)16/06/2021Prince Of Wales's StakesASCOT11Video
TurfLove (IRE)16/06/2021Prince Of Wales's StakesASCOT11Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)16/06/2021Windsor Castle StakesASCOT5Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)16/06/2021Windsor Castle StakesASCOT8Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)17/06/2021Norfolk StakesASCOT22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)17/06/2021Norfolk StakesASCOT22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)17/06/2021Norfolk StakesASCOT27Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)18/06/2021Commonwealth CupASCOT111Video
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)18/06/2021Commonwealth CupASCOT17Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)18/06/2021Coronation StakesASCOT13Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)18/06/2021Albany StakesASCOT32Video
TurfAstronaut19/06/2021San Juan Capistrano StakesSANTA ANITA PARK32Video
TurfJapan (GB)19/06/2021Hardwicke StakesASCOT26Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One19/06/2021Roxelana Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS1Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin19/06/2021Roxelana Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS2Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way19/06/2021Get Serious StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)20/06/2021Prix de Diane LonginesCHANTILLY15Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence20/06/2021American StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MileRestrainedvengence20/06/2021American StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)20/06/2021Poker StakesBELMONT PARK32Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)22/06/2021Hot To Trot Racing E.B.F.NEWBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)25/06/2021Rich Energy British Ebf Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)NEWMARKET1No Video Available
ClassicArt Collector25/06/2021Kelly's Landing Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS6Video
SprintMucho25/06/2021Kelly's Landing Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS2Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)25/06/2021Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Fillies MaidenCURRAGH3Video
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)26/06/2021Close Brothers Criterion StakesNEWMARKET36No Video Available
DistaffHorologist26/06/2021Lady Jacqueline StakesTHISTLEDOWN5No Video Available
Dirt MilePingxiang26/06/2021Tempozan StakesHANSHIN1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH22Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH25Video
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)26/06/2021Clasico PamplonaHIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO11Video
MileIn Love (BRZ)26/06/2021Wise Dan StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS28Video
TurfIn Love (BRZ)26/06/2021Wise Dan StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS28Video
DistaffClairiere26/06/2021Mother Goose StakesBELMONT PARK23Video
ClassicLetruska26/06/2021Fleur de Lis StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS21Video
DistaffLetruska26/06/2021Fleur de Lis StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS21Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)27/06/2021Al Wasmiyah Stud Pretty Polly StakesCURRAGH14Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)27/06/2021Al Wasmiyah Stud Pretty Polly StakesCURRAGH11Video
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)30/06/2021Teio ShoOI8No Video Available
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)01/07/2021British Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)HAYDOCK PARK5No Video Available
MileDuhail (IRE)01/07/2021Prix de la Porte MaillotLONGCHAMP32No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise En Scene (GB)02/07/2021Irish Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)HAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
ClassicKnicks Go02/07/2021Prairie Meadows Cornhusker H.PRAIRIE MEADOWS31Video
SprintSpecial Reserve03/07/2021Iowa Sprint StakesPRAIRIE MEADOWS1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)03/07/2021Naas Nursery Of Champions RaceNAAS2No Video Available
ClassicMishriff (IRE)03/07/2021Coral Eclipse StakesSANDOWN PARK13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)03/07/2021Coral Eclipse StakesSANDOWN PARK13Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce03/07/2021Princess Rooney Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK21Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso03/07/2021Princess Rooney Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK22Video
ClassicHappy Saver03/07/2021Suburban StakesBELMONT PARK23Video
ClassicMax Player03/07/2021Suburban StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
Dirt MileMind Control04/07/2021John A. Nerud StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
SprintFirenze Fire04/07/2021John A. Nerud StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
SprintMind Control04/07/2021John A. Nerud StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)04/07/2021IDEE Deutsches DerbyHAMBURG11Video
TurfGufo05/07/2021Grand Couturier StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
Filly & Mare SprintEdgeway05/07/2021Great Lady M StakesLOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE24Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine05/07/2021Great Lady M StakesLOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE21Video
MilePrincess Grace06/07/2021Dr. James Penny Memorial StakesPARX RACING31Video
TurfYibir (GB)08/07/2021Bahrain TrophyNEWMARKET31Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)09/07/2021Tattersalls Falmouth StakesNEWMARKET12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)09/07/2021Duchess of Cambridge Stakes Sponsored By Bet365NEWMARKET23Video
DistaffBonny South10/07/2021Delaware H.DELAWARE PARK25No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)10/07/2021Betfred Summer Mile StakesASCOT28Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)10/07/2021Darley July CupNEWMARKET111Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)11/07/2021Prix de La Calonne - F.E.E.DEAUVILLE1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)14/07/2021Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Cairn Rouge StakesKILLARNEY9No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)14/07/2021Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)LINGFIELD1No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)15/07/2021British Ebf Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)EPSOM1No Video Available
TurfJapan (GB)15/07/2021Green Room Meld StakesLEOPARDSTOWN31Video
Turf SprintGolden Pal15/07/2021Quick Call StakesSARATOGA31Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)16/07/2021Bet365 E.B.F.NEWBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)17/07/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.HAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)17/07/2021Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2) (Gbb Race)NEWBURY1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)17/07/2021Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2) (Gbb Race)NEWBURY4Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)17/07/2021Juddmonte Irish OaksCURRAGH11Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)17/07/2021Juddmonte Irish OaksCURRAGH11Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie17/07/2021TVG.com Haskell StakesMONMOUTH PARK11Video
ClassicExpress Train17/07/2021San Diego H.DEL MAR21Video
ClassicTripoli17/07/2021San Diego H.DEL MAR22Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way17/07/2021Wolf Hill StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
TurfArklow17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK16Video
TurfGlynn County17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK15Video
TurfImperador (ARG)17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK12Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK19Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK11Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)18/07/2021Prix ChloeCHANTILLY32No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)18/07/2021Kilboy Estate StakesCURRAGH21Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)18/07/2021Romanised Minstrel StakesCURRAGH21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)21/07/2021Grand Prix de VichyVICHY31No Video Available
Juvenile TurfCoinage21/07/2021Rick Violette StakesSARATOGA3Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)22/07/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F. Star StakesSANDOWN PARK2No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)24/07/2021Irish Ebf Auction Series Fillies MaidenGOWRAN PARK1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)24/07/2021Mansionbet Proud To Support British Racing British Ebf Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)NEWMARKET1No Video Available
ClassicMishriff (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT13Video
TurfLove (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)24/07/2021San Clemente StakesDEL MAR22Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)24/07/2021Princess Margaret Keeneland StakesASCOT36Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)24/07/2021Princess Margaret Keeneland StakesASCOT31Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR26Video
MileRestrainedvengence24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR26Video
MileSmooth Like Strait24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR22Video
TurfUnited24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR21Video
DistaffClairiere24/07/2021Coaching Club American OaksSARATOGA13Video
DistaffMalathaat24/07/2021Coaching Club American OaksSARATOGA12Video
DistaffHorologist25/07/2021Shuvee StakesSARATOGA32Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)27/07/2021Unibet Lennox StakesGOODWOOD24Video
MileToro Strike27/07/2021Unibet Lennox StakesGOODWOOD26Video
MileDuhail (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD14Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD17Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD15Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD12Video
MileSpace Traveller (GB)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD16Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)28/07/2021Markel Molecomb StakesGOODWOOD31Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One28/07/2021Honorable Miss H.SARATOGA21Video
TurfYibir (GB)29/07/2021John Pearce Racing Gordon StakesGOODWOOD36Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)29/07/2021Unibet Richmond StakesGOODWOOD23Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)29/07/2021Qatar Nassau StakesGOODWOOD15Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)31/07/2021British Stallion Studs Ebf Soba Conditions Stakes (Class 3)HAMILTON PARK1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintOne Timer31/07/2021Victoria StakesWOODBINE1No Video Available
SprintMucho31/07/2021Challedon StakesPIMLICO1Video
SprintC Z Rocket31/07/2021Bing Crosby StakesDEL MAR13Video
SprintDr. Schivel31/07/2021Bing Crosby StakesDEL MAR11Video
TurfChannel Cat31/07/2021Bowling Green StakesSARATOGA24Video
TurfCross Border31/07/2021Bowling Green StakesSARATOGA21Video
SprintFirenze Fire31/07/2021Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.SARATOGA15Video
SprintLexitonian31/07/2021Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.SARATOGA11Video
SprintSpecial Reserve31/07/2021Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.SARATOGA12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)01/08/2021Chester Fc Welcomes Fans Back Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)CHESTER2No Video Available
DistaffAs Time Goes By01/08/2021Clement L. Hirsch StakesDEL MAR14Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil01/08/2021Clement L. Hirsch StakesDEL MAR11Video
Filly & Mare SprintVenetian Harbor01/08/2021Clement L. Hirsch StakesDEL MAR12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfSail By01/08/2021Colleen StakesMONMOUTH PARK2Video
SprintJackie's Warrior01/08/2021Amsterdam StakesSARATOGA21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)02/08/2021Dave Dykes 70th Ebf Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Gbb Race)KEMPTON PARK2No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)03/08/2021Prix RothschildDEAUVILLE14Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)03/08/2021Prix RothschildDEAUVILLE11Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)03/08/2021Prix RothschildDEAUVILLE13Video
TurfTarnawa (IRE)05/08/2021Grant Thornton Ballyroan StakesLEOPARDSTOWN31Video
Turf SprintCarotari06/08/2021Troy Stakes presented by Horse Racing IrelandSARATOGA32Video
Turf SprintFast Boat06/08/2021Troy Stakes presented by Horse Racing IrelandSARATOGA31Video
Turf SprintGear Jockey06/08/2021Troy Stakes presented by Horse Racing IrelandSARATOGA33Video
ClassicArt Collector06/08/2021Alydar StakesSARATOGA1Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia07/08/2021Yellow Ribbon H.DEL MAR26Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag07/08/2021Yellow Ribbon H.DEL MAR22Video
MilePrincess Grace07/08/2021Yellow Ribbon H.DEL MAR21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Gleaming (IRE)07/08/2021Prix de la Vallee d'AugeDEAUVILLE1Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)07/08/2021Glens Falls StakesSARATOGA22Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess07/08/2021Glens Falls StakesSARATOGA21Video
Filly & Mare SprintBella Sofia07/08/2021Longines Test StakesSARATOGA11Video
ClassicKnicks Go07/08/2021Whitney StakesSARATOGA11Video
Dirt MileSilver State07/08/2021Whitney StakesSARATOGA13Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHer World (IRE)07/08/2021Tyro StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)07/08/2021100% RacingTV Profits Back To Racing Sweet Solera StakesNEWMARKET32Video
JuvenilePappacap07/08/2021Best Pal StakesDEL MAR21Video
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)08/08/2021Longines Irish Champions Weekend Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)LEICESTER2No Video Available
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)08/08/2021LARC Prix Maurice de GheestDEAUVILLE17Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)08/08/2021Rathasker Stud Phoenix Sprint StakesCURRAGH33Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH14Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH13Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH13Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH16Video
SprintMatera Sky09/08/2021Cluster CupMORIOKA5No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)09/08/2021Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)WOLVERHAMPTON1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)11/08/2021Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Hurry Harriet StakesGOWRAN PARK6No Video Available
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)12/08/2021Breeders' Gold CupMOMBETSU1No Video Available
MileReal Appeal (GER)12/08/2021Invesco Pension Consultants Desmond StakesLEOPARDSTOWN33No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)13/08/2021BetVictor St. Hugh's StakesNEWBURY9Video
JuvenileAmerican Sanctuary14/08/2021Prairie Gold Juvenile StakesPRAIRIE MEADOWS2No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)14/08/2021Mr. D. StakesARLINGTON14Video
TurfDomestic Spending (GB)14/08/2021Mr. D. StakesARLINGTON12Video
TurfGlynn County14/08/2021Mr. D. StakesARLINGTON13Video
MileCasa Creed14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA13Video
MileGot Stormy14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA11Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA16Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA13Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)14/08/2021Denford StakesNEWBURY2Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)15/08/2021Prix du Haras de Fresnay Le Buffard Jacques Le MaroisDEAUVILLE13Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)15/08/2021Prix du Haras de Fresnay Le Buffard Jacques Le MaroisDEAUVILLE12Video
ClassicMishriff (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK11Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK13Video
TurfLove (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK11Video
TurfYibir (GB)18/08/2021Sky Bet Great Voltigeur StakesYORK21Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfKneesnhips18/08/2021Bolton Landing StakesSARATOGA3Video
Juvenile Turf SprintDerrynane18/08/2021Bolton Landing StakesSARATOGA5Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)19/08/2021Darley Yorkshire OaksYORK11Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)19/08/2021Darley Yorkshire OaksYORK11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)19/08/2021Sky Bet Lowther StakesYORK26Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)19/08/2021Sky Bet Lowther StakesYORK21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)19/08/2021Sky Bet Lowther StakesYORK24Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)20/08/2021Highclere Castle Gin British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 4) (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (Gbb Race)SALISBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)20/08/2021Longines Irish Champions Weekend E.B.F. Stonehenge StakesSALISBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)20/08/2021Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack StakesYORK23Video
Filly & Mare SprintEdgeway20/08/2021Rancho Bernardo H.DEL MAR31Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)20/08/2021Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe StakesYORK12Video
Turf SprintGolden Pal20/08/2021Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe StakesYORK17Video
Juvenile FilliesAverly Jane20/08/2021Skidmore StakesSARATOGA1Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)21/08/2021Prix de la NonetteDEAUVILLE23No Video Available
Juvenile TurfDegree of Risk21/08/2021Soaring Free StakesWOODBINE2No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)21/08/2021Alpha Centauri Debutante StakesCURRAGH25Video
DistaffClairiere21/08/2021Alabama StakesSARATOGA12Video
DistaffMalathaat21/08/2021Alabama StakesSARATOGA11Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)21/08/2021Del Mar OaksDEL MAR11Video
TurfArklow21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR27Video
TurfAstronaut21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR21Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR22Video
TurfUnited21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR24Video
ClassicExpress Train21/08/2021TVG Pacific Classic StakesDEL MAR16Video
ClassicTripoli21/08/2021TVG Pacific Classic StakesDEL MAR11Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall21/08/2021TVG Pacific Classic StakesDEL MAR15Video
DistaffPrivate Mission21/08/2021Torrey Pines StakesDEL MAR31Video
MileHit the Road21/08/2021Del Mar Mile StakesDEL MAR23Video
MileMo Forza21/08/2021Del Mar Mile StakesDEL MAR21Video
MileSmooth Like Strait21/08/2021Del Mar Mile StakesDEL MAR22Video
MilePogo (IRE)21/08/2021Sky Bet City of York StakesYORK26Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)21/08/2021Sky Bet City of York StakesYORK21Video
SprintCollusion Illusion22/08/2021Green Flash H.DEL MAR37Video
Turf SprintCollusion Illusion22/08/2021Green Flash H.DEL MAR37Video
Turf SprintLieutenant Dan22/08/2021Green Flash H.DEL MAR31Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE12Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE11Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE18Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE13Video
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)22/08/2021Sapporo KinenSAPPORO22Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)22/08/2021Sapporo KinenSAPPORO22Video
DistaffHorologist22/08/2021Summer Colony StakesSARATOGA1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)22/08/2021Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley SeriesDEAUVILLE14Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley SeriesDEAUVILLE15Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley SeriesDEAUVILLE19Video
SprintMucho23/08/2021Chesapeake StakesCOLONIAL DOWNS2No Video Available
Turf SprintHollywood Talent23/08/2021Marshall Jenney H.PARX RACING4No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)24/08/2021Sorvio Insurance Brokers British Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4)SALISBURY1No Video Available
ClassicArt Collector27/08/2021Charles Town Classic StakesHOLLYWOOD CASINO AT CHARLES TOWN RACES21Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence27/08/2021Charles Town Classic StakesHOLLYWOOD CASINO AT CHARLES TOWN RACES24Video
MileRestrainedvengence27/08/2021Charles Town Classic StakesHOLLYWOOD CASINO AT CHARLES TOWN RACES24Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)27/08/2021Snow Fairy StakesCURRAGH31Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)28/08/2021Sytner BMW Sunningdale August StakesROYAL WINDSOR1No Video Available
TurfCross Border28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA13Video
TurfGufo28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA11Video
TurfJapan (GB)28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA12Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA15Video
MilePogo (IRE)28/08/2021Tote Celebration Mile StakesGOODWOOD23Video
ClassicLetruska28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA11Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA16Video
DistaffBonny South28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA12Video
DistaffLetruska28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA11Video
Dirt MileMind Control28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA14Video
SprintFirenze Fire28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA12Video
SprintLexitonian28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA18Video
SprintMind Control28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA14Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA13Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA15Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA11Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA14Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good28/08/2021H. Allen Jerkens Memorial StakesSARATOGA12Video
SprintJackie's Warrior28/08/2021H. Allen Jerkens Memorial StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)28/08/2021Tote Prestige StakesGOODWOOD34Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise En Scene (GB)28/08/2021Tote Prestige StakesGOODWOOD31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)28/08/2021Tote Prestige StakesGOODWOOD33Video
Dirt MileGinobili28/08/2021Pat O'Brien StakesDEL MAR21Video
SprintC Z Rocket28/08/2021Pat O'Brien StakesDEL MAR22Video
SprintFlagstaff28/08/2021Pat O'Brien StakesDEL MAR23Video
MileToro Strike29/08/2021Weatherbys Hamilton Supreme StakesGOODWOOD31No Video Available
ClassicMedina Spirit29/08/2021Shared Belief StakesDEL MAR1Video
MileDuhail (IRE)29/08/2021Barriere Prix de MeautryDEAUVILLE32Video
Juvenile Turf SprintBig Boss Ben31/08/2021Exacta Systems Rosie's StakesCOLONIAL DOWNS6No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Critical Way31/08/2021Parx Dash StakesPARX RACING31Video
Juvenile TurfCoinage01/09/2021With Anticipation StakesSARATOGA31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)02/09/2021IRE Incentive Scheme Dick Poole StakesSALISBURY33No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)02/09/2021IRE Incentive Scheme Dick Poole StakesSALISBURY32No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)02/09/2021Prix d'ArenbergLONGCHAMP36No Video Available
Juvenile FilliesMiss Interpret02/09/2021P. G. Johnson StakesSARATOGA1Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfSail By02/09/2021P. G. Johnson StakesSARATOGA3Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)03/09/2021British Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)HAYDOCK PARK2No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)04/09/2021Flower Bowl StakesSARATOGA13Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess04/09/2021Flower Bowl StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)04/09/2021Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Sirenia StakesKEMPTON PARK33Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag04/09/2021John C. Mabee StakesDEL MAR22Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas04/09/2021John C. Mabee StakesDEL MAR21Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)04/09/2021Betfair Sprint CupHAYDOCK PARK11Video
ClassicHappy Saver04/09/2021Jockey Club Gold Cup StakesSARATOGA12Video
ClassicMax Player04/09/2021Jockey Club Gold Cup StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile FilliesEcho Zulu05/09/2021Spinaway StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile FilliesTarabi05/09/2021Spinaway StakesSARATOGA12Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)05/09/2021Prix du Moulin de LongchampLONGCHAMP16Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)05/09/2021Prix du Moulin de LongchampLONGCHAMP12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHelens Well (IRE)05/09/2021Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf StakesDEL MAR2Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfLiam's Dove05/09/2021Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf StakesDEL MAR1Video
JuvenileAmerican Sanctuary05/09/2021Sapling StakesMONMOUTH PARK2Video
Juvenile FilliesGrace Adler05/09/2021TVG Del Mar Debutante StakesDEL MAR11Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)05/09/2021Wettstar Grosser Preis von BadenBADEN BADEN12Video
Juvenile TurfKiss the Sky06/09/2021Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS2Video
Juvenile TurfTiz the Bomb06/09/2021Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1Video
JuvenilePappacap06/09/2021Runhappy Del Mar FuturityDEL MAR14Video
JuvenilePinehurst06/09/2021Runhappy Del Mar FuturityDEL MAR11Video
JuvenileKevin's Folly06/09/2021Hopeful StakesSARATOGA13Video
Juvenile TurfMackinnon06/09/2021Del Mar Juvenile Turf StakesDEL MAR1Video
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)08/09/2021Take The Reins Nursery Handicap Stakes (Class 2)DONCASTER1No Video Available
MileIn Love (BRZ)08/09/2021TVG StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
TurfIn Love (BRZ)08/09/2021TVG StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfRed Danger09/09/2021Global Tote Juvenile Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintRed Danger09/09/2021Global Tote Juvenile Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)09/09/2021Cazoo May Hill StakesDONCASTER22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)10/09/2021Wainwright Flying Childers StakesDONCASTER22Video
MileReal Appeal (GER)11/09/2021Clipper Logistics Boomerang Mile Solonaway StakesLEOPARDSTOWN21No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)11/09/2021Franklin-Simpson StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS21Video
TurfArklow11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS22Video
TurfChannel Cat11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS26Video
TurfGlynn County11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS23Video
TurfImperador (ARG)11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS21Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)11/09/2021Champagne StakesDONCASTER21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)11/09/2021Champagne StakesDONCASTER23Video
MilePrincess Grace11/09/2021Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS31Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)11/09/2021Irish Champion StakesLEOPARDSTOWN13Video
TurfTarnawa (IRE)11/09/2021Irish Champion StakesLEOPARDSTOWN12Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)11/09/2021Coolmore America Justify Matron StakesLEOPARDSTOWN17Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)11/09/2021Coolmore America Justify Matron StakesLEOPARDSTOWN13Video
MileCasa Creed11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS35Video
MileGot Stormy11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS36Video
Turf SprintBombard11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS33Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS35Video
Turf SprintFast Boat11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS34Video
Turf SprintGear Jockey11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS31Video
Filly & Mare SprintVenetian Harbor11/09/2021Mint Ladies Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS310Video
MileGrenadier Guards (JPN)12/09/2021Keisei Hai Autumn H.NAKAYAMA33No Video Available
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)12/09/2021Qatar Prix du PinLONGCHAMP33Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfKoala Princess12/09/2021Ainsworth StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH24Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH22Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH23Video
TurfLove (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH22Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)12/09/2021Derrinstown Stud Flying Five StakesCURRAGH12Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/09/2021Qatar Prix VermeilleLONGCHAMP12Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)12/09/2021Qatar Prix VermeilleLONGCHAMP11Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/09/2021Qatar Prix VermeilleLONGCHAMP12Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)17/09/2021British E.B.F. Stallions Harry Rosebery StakesAYR1No Video Available
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence18/09/2021Downs At Albuquerque H.ALBUQUERQUE1No Video Available
MileRestrainedvengence18/09/2021Downs At Albuquerque H.ALBUQUERQUE1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)18/09/2021Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef StakesNEWBURY27No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)18/09/2021Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef StakesNEWBURY22No Video Available
DistaffShedaresthedevil18/09/2021Locust Grove StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
TurfYibir (GB)18/09/2021Jockey Club Derby Invitational StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
JuvenileTough to Tame18/09/2021Iroquois StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS32Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One18/09/2021Open Mind StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS2Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin18/09/2021Open Mind StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS1Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)18/09/2021Ricoh Woodbine Mile StakesWOODBINE13Video
MileSpace Traveller (GB)18/09/2021Ricoh Woodbine Mile StakesWOODBINE12Video
Juvenile FilliesHidden Connection18/09/2021Pocahontas StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfKneesnhips18/09/2021Pocahontas StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS38Video
Juvenile Turf SprintDerrynane19/09/2021Woodbine Cares StakesWOODBINE1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)19/09/2021Summer StakesWOODBINE11Video
Juvenile TurfDegree of Risk19/09/2021Summer StakesWOODBINE13Video
Juvenile TurfGrafton Street19/09/2021Summer StakesWOODBINE12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfPizza Bianca19/09/2021Natalma StakesWOODBINE12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)19/09/2021Natalma StakesWOODBINE11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)20/09/2021Ballyhane Stud Blenheim StakesFAIRYHOUSE3No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)21/09/2021National Horseracing College Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)BEVERLEY1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)23/09/2021Tattersalls Somerville StakesNEWMARKET31Video
Filly & Mare TurfQueen Supreme (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET27Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET23Video
MilePogo (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET22Video
MileQueen Supreme (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET27Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet Rockfel StakesNEWMARKET21Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good25/09/2021Kelso H.BELMONT PARK21Video
Turf SprintBeer Can Man25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING32Video
Turf SprintCarotari25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING36Video
Turf SprintFirecrow25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING34Video
Turf SprintHollywood Talent25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING31Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie25/09/2021Pennsylvania DerbyPARX RACING11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfTenebrism25/09/2021Juddmonte Cheveley Park StakesNEWMARKET11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Cheveley Park StakesNEWMARKET110Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Cheveley Park StakesNEWMARKET14Video
Dirt MileMind Control25/09/2021Parx Dirt Mile StakesPARX RACING1Video
Dirt MileSilver State25/09/2021Parx Dirt Mile StakesPARX RACING2Video
SprintMind Control25/09/2021Parx Dirt Mile StakesPARX RACING1Video
SprintJackie's Warrior25/09/2021Gallant Bob StakesPARX RACING21Video
DistaffClairiere25/09/2021Cotillion StakesPARX RACING11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET12Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET14Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET13Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET14Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET15Video
Filly & Mare SprintBella Sofia26/09/2021Gallant Bloom H.BELMONT PARK21Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)26/09/2021Preis von EuropaKOLN13Video
Juvenile TurfCoinage26/09/2021Nownownow StakesMONMOUTH PARK3Video
Juvenile TurfDakota Gold26/09/2021Nownownow StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
Juvenile FilliesAin't Easy01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Juvenile FilliesDesert Dawn01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
Juvenile FilliesElectric Ride01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Juvenile FilliesGrace Adler01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia01/10/2021Eddie D StakesSANTA ANITA PARK28Video
Turf SprintChaos Theory01/10/2021Eddie D StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
Turf SprintLieutenant Dan01/10/2021Eddie D StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
JuvenileCorniche01/10/2021American Pharoah StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
JuvenileOviatt Class01/10/2021American Pharoah StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
JuvenilePappacap01/10/2021American Pharoah StakesSANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Juvenile Turf SprintOne Timer01/10/2021Speakeasy StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTime to Party01/10/2021Speakeasy StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
TurfFriar's Road02/10/2021John Henry Turf Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)02/10/2021John Henry Turf Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
TurfUnited02/10/2021John Henry Turf Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Juvenile TurfReady to Purrform02/10/2021Laurel FuturityLAUREL PARK1Video
JuvenileCommandperformance02/10/2021Champagne StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
JuvenileJack Christopher02/10/2021Champagne StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)02/10/2021Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot StakesNEWMARKET12Video
ClassicKnicks Go02/10/2021Lukas Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall02/10/2021Lukas Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS32Video
ClassicArt Collector02/10/2021Woodward StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
MileHit the Road02/10/2021City of Hope Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
MileMo Forza02/10/2021City of Hope Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
MileSmooth Like Strait02/10/2021City of Hope Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
ClassicExpress Train02/10/2021Awesome Again StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
ClassicMedina Spirit02/10/2021Awesome Again StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
ClassicTripoli02/10/2021Awesome Again StakesSANTA ANITA PARK14Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfSail By02/10/2021Miss Grillo StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
SprintC Z Rocket02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
SprintCollusion Illusion02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
SprintDr. Schivel02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
SprintFlagstaff02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Turf SprintCollusion Illusion02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag02/10/2021Rodeo Drive StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas02/10/2021Rodeo Drive StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
MileDuhail (IRE)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de la ForetLONGCHAMP110Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de la ForetLONGCHAMP11Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de la ForetLONGCHAMP16Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCairo Memories03/10/2021Surfer Girl StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHelens Well (IRE)03/10/2021Surfer Girl StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfLiam's Dove03/10/2021Surfer Girl StakesSANTA ANITA PARK10Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce03/10/2021Chillingworth StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP14Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP12Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP11Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP15Video
Juvenile TurfIl Capitano03/10/2021Zuma Beach StakesSANTA ANITA PARK10Video
Juvenile TurfMackinnon03/10/2021Zuma Beach StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
Juvenile FilliesEcho Zulu03/10/2021Frizette StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
Juvenile TurfAnnapolis03/10/2021Pilgrim StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By03/10/2021Zenyatta StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
DistaffPrivate Mission03/10/2021Zenyatta StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP16Video
TurfSealiway (FR)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP15Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP16Video
TurfTarnawa (IRE)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP12Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)03/10/2021Fasig-Tipton Waya StakesBELMONT PARK31Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)03/10/2021Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp LonginesLONGCHAMP11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise En Scene (GB)08/10/2021Bet365 Fillies MileNEWMARKET14Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)08/10/2021Bet365 Fillies MileNEWMARKET12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)08/10/2021Bet365 Fillies MileNEWMARKET15Video
Juvenile FilliesMiss Interpret08/10/2021Darley Alcibiades StakesKEENELAND18Video
Juvenile FilliesPipeline Girl08/10/2021Darley Alcibiades StakesKEENELAND111Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)08/10/2021Godolphin Lifetime Care Oh So Sharp StakesNEWMARKET36Video
SprintMucho08/10/2021Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix StakesKEENELAND23Video
SprintSpecial Reserve08/10/2021Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix StakesKEENELAND21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)08/10/2021Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis StakesNEWMARKET33Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)08/10/2021Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis StakesNEWMARKET31Video
TurfArklow09/10/2021Joe Hirsch Turf Classic StakesBELMONT PARK15Video
TurfCross Border09/10/2021Joe Hirsch Turf Classic StakesBELMONT PARK17Video
TurfGufo09/10/2021Joe Hirsch Turf Classic StakesBELMONT PARK13Video
TurfJapan (GB)09/10/2021Joe Hirsch Turf Classic StakesBELMONT PARK16Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One09/10/2021Thoroughbred Club of America StakesKEENELAND21Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso09/10/2021Thoroughbred Club of America StakesKEENELAND23Video
SprintFirenze Fire09/10/2021Vosburgh StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)09/10/2021Darley Dewhurst StakesNEWMARKET13Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)09/10/2021Darley Dewhurst StakesNEWMARKET17Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)09/10/2021Darley Dewhurst StakesNEWMARKET17Video
MileIn Love (BRZ)09/10/2021Keeneland Turf Mile StakesKEENELAND11Video
MileIvar (BRZ)09/10/2021Keeneland Turf Mile StakesKEENELAND14Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)09/10/2021Keeneland Turf Mile StakesKEENELAND112Video
MileSpace Traveller (GB)09/10/2021Keeneland Turf Mile StakesKEENELAND15Video
TurfIn Love (BRZ)09/10/2021Keeneland Turf Mile StakesKEENELAND11Video
JuvenileAmerican Sanctuary09/10/2021Claiborne Breeders' FuturityKEENELAND14Video
JuvenileClassic Causeway09/10/2021Claiborne Breeders' FuturityKEENELAND13Video
JuvenileKevin's Folly09/10/2021Claiborne Breeders' FuturityKEENELAND18Video
Turf SprintFirecrow09/10/2021Woodford Stakes Presented by TVGKEENELAND26Video
Turf SprintGolden Pal09/10/2021Woodford Stakes Presented by TVGKEENELAND21Video
DistaffHorologist10/10/2021Beldame StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
ClassicLetruska10/10/2021Juddmonte Spinster StakesKEENELAND11Video
DistaffBonny South10/10/2021Juddmonte Spinster StakesKEENELAND13Video
DistaffLetruska10/10/2021Juddmonte Spinster StakesKEENELAND11Video
Juvenile FilliesAverly Jane10/10/2021Indian Summer Stakes Presented by Keeneland SelectKEENELAND1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintBig Boss Ben10/10/2021Indian Summer Stakes Presented by Keeneland SelectKEENELAND7Video
Juvenile Turf SprintDetroit City10/10/2021Indian Summer Stakes Presented by Keeneland SelectKEENELAND4Video
Juvenile TurfSlipstream10/10/2021Futurity StakesBELMONT PARK31Video
Juvenile TurfDowagiac Chief10/10/2021Castle & Key Bourbon StakesKEENELAND25Video
Juvenile TurfMartini'nmoonshine10/10/2021Castle & Key Bourbon StakesKEENELAND211Video
Juvenile TurfRed Danger10/10/2021Castle & Key Bourbon StakesKEENELAND24Video
Juvenile TurfTiz the Bomb10/10/2021Castle & Key Bourbon StakesKEENELAND21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintRed Danger10/10/2021Castle & Key Bourbon StakesKEENELAND24Video

Cesarewitch Draw and Pace Bias Plus The Effect Of The Ground On Front Runners At York

Some very interesting betting races at both York and Newmarket this weekend and the most interesting of all has to be the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket. As usual there are 34 runners plus 2 reserves entered and some course biases would be extremely handy in narrowing down this field, so let’s take a look at what might prevail here.

Cesarewitch Draw Bias

The general consensus is you want to be drawn low in this, but how strong is the bias over 2m2f at Newmarket?

The Cesarewitch Trial doesn’t tend to attract big fields so we are fairly limited with our data here as most of it is only provided by the renewal of this race each year. The good news is that with some massive field sizes a huge amount of runners have contributed to the PRB data here and that is going to be by far our most reliable gauge of a potential draw bias at Newmarket.

The PRB data seems to favour low and middle over high with a low draw PRB of 0.54, a middle draw PRB of 0.53 and a much poorer PRB for the highest third of the draw of just 0.44.

The win data isn’t totally reliable given a relatively small sample of races since 2009 but it’s worth noting that only one winner since that data has come from a stall higher than 23 and that was when Frankie Dettori made all on Never Can Tell in 2011. His stall number was 36 but with non runners and reserves not making the cut he effectively came out of stall 33. It’s worth noting that not only was he able to get a good early position from his ‘bad’ draw, Dettori also explored a completely different part of the straight than the rest of the field which probably gave him a big advantage that day - negating the disadvantage of his draw.

That win certainly looks the exception to the rule and it seems that for win purposes we probably want to look at the bottom two thirds of the draw.

For a more detailed look at the draw we should check out the individual stall data.

Both the table and the graph are sorted by PRB3 (PRB3 is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten) to give us the best indication of the best and worst places to be drawn in the Cesarewitch.

First of all though, we’ve established that winning is very difficult from the top third of the draw but what about placing? Higher drawn runners do place, and it’s easy to then suggest the draw bias can’t be very strong because of it, but that isn’t wise. Of the top eleven place percentages for individual stalls, nine of those come from stalls 11 or lower. The only other stalls to break into that top eleven are stalls 19 and 27.

Stall 33’s sole place came when Dettori found the quickest ground and if you were willing to ignore that, which admittedly is slightly selective use of the data, it could be said that the highest seven stalls are all in the bottom fourteen stalls as far as place percentages are concerned.

A total of seventeen stalls have placed more than once and fourteen of those were stall 16 or below. The other three stalls to have two places or more are 19, 22 and 27.

Based on the win and place data, I’d suggest that the winner is very likely to come from stall 23 or lower and the placed horses are very likely to be dominated by stalls 27 and lower. That potentially rules out eleven runners for win purposes and seven runners for place purposes.

As mentioned previously, the most reliable data in this sample is the PRB data as every runner is contributing to that.

Again, this is selective use of the stats as Stall 33 has won the race before, but we’ve established that he probably didn’t really win completely on merit so I’m willing to largely overlook that anomaly. If you did ignore that win the top twenty-two individual stall PRB figures would belong to the lowest 28 stalls and any stall higher than that would have a PRB of 0.46 at best. The top six PRB figures include five stalls that are 10 or lower.

For some reason there is a slight dip in performance as far as PRB3 is concerned from around stall 9 to stall 18. There is no obvious reason why that might be the case and perhaps that line will be smoothed further in future years. It certainly seems as though being drawn 11 or lower is absolutely ideal according to many of the individual stall metrics.

All of the above data is based on the actual stall the runners emerged from, which is impacted by non runners, rather than the racecard stall numbers. It’s worth noting that the reserves this year are drawn in stalls 23 and 3. Assuming neither gets a run stalls 4 to 22 will effectively break from one stall lower than their racecard draw and stalls 24 and above will effectively come out of two stalls lower than their racecard draw. So if you were using stall 23 as the cut off for where you might be able to win from, stall 25 would actually qualify as that will effectively be stall 23.

One final point to note on the Cesarewitch draw advantage is that as of 2020, you have to go all the way back to Sergeant Cecil’s victory from stall 9 in 2005 to find a renewal of this race where a horse drawn 7 or lower didn’t finish in the first four. So it might not be a bad strategy to simply back your favoured horse drawn 7 or lower to place - there are plenty of runners at very big prices amongst those draws this year.

Cesarewitch Pace Bias

So we certainly seem to have a Cesarewitch draw bias, what about a Cesarewitch pace bias at Newmarket?

The win percentages suggest the closer you are to the early pace the better but sixteen races is too small a sample to be reading too much into the win data when we can also look at the place data.

The place percentages suggest there really is much in it at all. The top place percentage of 15.91% belongs to prominent whilst front runners have a slightly inferior place percentage of 15.71%.

The best two place percentages do belong to the most aggressive run styles but with mid division place percentage coming in at 12.5% and held up providing a place percentage of 14.21% there really isn’t much between the data.

If there aren’t many front runners in the field I’d probably slightly favour something that is likely to be ridden in the front half of the field but granted an even pace or better I’d have no hesitation in going for something a bit more patiently ridden if they have the right sort of draw and a strong level of form.

Cesarewitch Draw and Pace Combination

Draw and pace are both extremely important factors in most races. In combination they can be hugely influential and the draw and pace combination heat map on the Draw Analyser helps give extra insight into potential course biases.

Despite Newmarket often being a front runner’s track, the data points to a front running ride from either low or middle to be a disadvantage in this race with extremely poor PRB figures for each of those combinations. The only reason front running from a high draw comes out okay is the victory of Never Can Tell in 2011 and that probably shouldn’t be taken at face value. More runners have led early from low, than middle and high combined, so it’s clear that it’s much easier to get the lead from a low stall as those higher drawn runners are likely to track across.

Racing prominently is rarely a bad thing at Newmarket and that’s certainly the case if a runner is drawn low or middle in this with impressive PRBs of 0.58 and 0.64 respectively. Things get drastically worse for this run style from high draws though with a PRB of just 0.31. Nineteen runners have raced prominently from a high draw since 2009 and only one of those even managed to place.

Racing in mid division is possibly just about the best place to be if drawn low but things get steadily worse the higher you are drawn for this run style. The place percentages for middle and high for mid division are extremely poor (less than 4% compared to 24.25% for mid division for low).

The draw seems to make the least amount of difference for those held up with not a massive amount between the draws for that run style. On balance, if you are backing a high drawn runner then it is probably best that the horse is dropped out from the start. If you are a hold up performer then there isn’t much between a low and middle draw as far as PRB is concerned, although place percentage data very slightly favours middle.

This heat map is very informative and my reading of the data is that prominent runners from low or middle draws should be marked up, as should those racing in mid division from low draws, whilst I wouldn’t be completely put off hold ups from low or middle.

Cesarewitch 2021 Pace Map

This is the pace map for the 2021 Cesarewitch Handicap, based on the last two runs of each participant.

I have added two blue boxes which may well be the most advantageous draw and pace combinations. There is of course no guarantee that those runners will reproduce those run styles, or that runners outside of the boxes won’t be ridden differently this time around.

Overall there is a fair amount of pace in this contest, particularly drawn very low although Aleatoric is second reserve and unlikely to run. There is also pace middle and high and those runners are going to have to use up plenty of early energy if they are to compete with Putting Green and Land Of Winter for the early lead.

Only a couple of the low drawn runners appear likely to be dropped out early, potentially forfeiting some of their draw advantage, and one of those includes the well fancied Buzz.

Given there is a decent amount of early pace in this on paper I wouldn’t rule out the more patiently ridden runners from low and middle draws although they might be at a slight disadvantage against some other draw and pace combinations (mainly the two marked in the blue boxes on the pace map).

Cesarewitch 2021 Preview

It's not impossible to build a case for many of these but I had four runners, all relatively well found in the betting, in mind for this from an early stage.

I’m never quite sure what to do with the Willie Mullins runners in these races. He’s won this for the past three years and runs five this year. In general they are difficult to weigh up from a form perspective but you know they should usually be respected because of the powerful yard they represent.

MC Muldoon is one of the easier ones to work out because he ran in the Ascot Stakes in June. He was runner up in that contest, and an unlucky runner up at that. I was really impressed with how he made up ground that day, going from around five or six lengths off the pace turning for home to about two lengths off the pace by the time they reached the 2f marker. This long straight will allow him to make up the ground in his own time and his draw in stall 15 is more than fine. He’s up 4lbs and the form of that Ascot Stakes race could certainly have worked out better so there are negatives but he’s clearly been campaigned with this in mind all season and has to be the one to beat.

Elysian Flame was one place behind him that day on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He then did best of those held up at Glorious Goodwood over a similar trip. He stays all day and would have preferred more rain but what rain they’ve had will suit, as should the long straight. He’s entitled to push MC Muldoon close from a similar draw, with a similar run style, but you get the impression that MC Muldoon is the classier rival.

The horse that finished ahead of Elysian Flame at Goodwood was Calling The Wind, who has been extremely progressive over staying trips this season. He was runner up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes in June but it’s not always best to take that form at face value. He came out of that and won at Goodwood though, cruising through that contest and only needing to be shaken up in the final furlong to win comfortably. He was put up 6lbs for that but probably put in his most remarkable effort to date last time out over just 12f. Despite that distance looking far too short for him based on this season’s exploits he once again cruised through the race, showing more speed than any other rival, only to go down by a head to a well handicapped winner. His performance needs to be watched to be appreciated and he has looked well ahead of his mark on his last few runs. The problem here is stall 27, which admittedly will effectively be stall 25 assuming the two reserves don’t make the cut. That stall would make him slightly higher still than the preferred cut off for win purposes but just about within the cut off for placing.

If Calling The Wind had been granted a much lower draw I don’t see how this horse would have finished out of the places and would have backed accordingly. As it is he still has a fair chance of placing at least but the market hasn’t reacted enough to his draw (meaning he should have drifted more) so I’ll have just a small each way bet on him instead.

Platform Nineteen was four places behind Calling The Wind at Goodwood and followed that up with a strong 3rd at York over two miles.

What is interesting about that form is the 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th have all won since making Platform Nineteen look well handicapped still off a 1lb higher mark. Unfortunately he has fared just as badly as Calling The Wind when it comes to the draw having been handed stall 28. From very similar draws I’d expect Calling The Wind to finish maybe a couple of lengths ahead of Platform Nineteen but Calling The Wind is only around 8/1 at the time of writing whereas Platform Nineteen is around the 25/1 mark. I’d much rather back Platform Nineteen to place at around 6/1 than Calling The Wind to place at around 2/1!

I think this quartet will all run well in this race and begrudgingly admit that MC Muldoon is the most likely winner but he offers no value, nor does Calling The Wind who the draw has hindered. I’m reluctant to get too involved in PLATFORM NINETEEN given the draw but he has to be considered the value play in this for all his draw has probably cost him a winning chance, making a place only bet the most appealing wager – you’d still get paid at similar odds as you would on MC Muldoon winning.

Coral Sprint Trophy Preview

From eighteen furlongs to six. Over at York, at 3.15pm, another extremely tough handicap will be run - the Coral Sprint Trophy.

The draw advantage at York probably isn’t what it used to be, they largely come up the middle and that seems to be just about the best place to be, making it a pretty level playing field as far as stalls are concerned.

Pace still has a huge bearing on York sprints though. It’s often a huge advantage to be on the speed over both 5f and 6f but is that still the case on testing ground?

The above shows the pace bias in big field York sprints on good or good to firm ground.

Meanwhile this is the pace data for sprints on good to soft or soft ground.

Front runners actually do marginally better in softer conditions for both win and place percentages. With front runners doing even better on testing ground we see a slightly poorer performance from those that are held up.

In this year’s race Gulliver will be going for a hat trick having won this in both 2019 and 2020. Despite being held up more often than not, which isn’t a great run style for this venue, all four of his turf wins have come at York. For 99% of the race in 2019 he looked like an also ran having been first off the bridle but he kept responding and got up late. A year later things were far more straight forward. Despite being settled at the back of the field he made up ground more comfortably this time, winning by over 2 lengths against a runner up that would be rated 10lbs higher within 6 months.

He also ran in a 6f handicap this season, on good to soft ground, but it appears the ground wasn’t quite soft enough as he was never going quick enough and finished a never nearer 6th. He did second best of the hold up performers that day and it’s worth noting that the best of those hold up performers was Mr Lupton who won the race. Mr Lupton is 3lbs better off with Gulliver in this having beaten him by 4.75 lengths so even though Gulliver looks likely to run well again off the same mark he carried to victory last year, it’s difficult to argue he is any sort of value against Mr Lupton who is the complete outsider of the field whereas Gulliver is the favourite. Like Guilliver, Mr Lupton also has four wins on the Knavesmire so is just as much of a course specialist.

You do have to forgive Mr Lupton four poor runs on the bounce, which is why he is such a big price, whereas Gulliver looks much more likely to run his race.

I do like Gulliver’s chances but the ground isn’t going to get any softer there now and that might count against him.

There are some interesting Irish runners in this race. Laugh A Minute was rated as high as 109 when with Roger Varian and placed twice here (good previous York form is always a huge bonus in any of these races). He comes here rated 92 having gone close last time despite never really getting a clear run. His better form has generally come on better ground though and he was well beaten in this last year.

Verhoyen could be the most interesting Irish raiders though. Three of his four wins have come over 6f but he’s been running over 5f recently. Last time out he got within half a length of the now 100 rated Strong Johnson, off level weights, meaning he’s feasibly handicapped here off 92 with the step back up in trip looking likely to suit.

Magical Spirit looks overpriced at 16/1 with most bookies. He ran a solid 4th in the Ayr Silver Cup last time out despite the ground not being soft enough and he was also 4th in this last year off a 5lb higher mark.

Magical Spirit ran very well over a slightly inadequate 5f on his penultimate start at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting but what is interesting about that race is he was 2nd in the near side group and the other runners who came near side have let that form down repeatedly since.

However the race that took place on the far side is far more interesting. The winner of the entire race, and therefore first home on the far side, was Tis Marvellous who has won two listed races since and placed in a Group 3 since. The runner up on the far side, beaten 2 lengths, was King Of Stars who has won two handicaps subsequently. Then third home on the far side, beaten a length by King Of Stars, was Snazzy Jazzy who is now a massive 7lbs lower and runs here. On that form alone he is 8lbs better off with Magical Spirit.

That was one of three strong efforts Snazzy Jazzy put in during the summer over 5f and the other two came here at York. The first of those was a 4th in a listed contest won by subsequent Nunthorpe winner Winter Power. The runner up has finished 2nd in a Group 3 since and the 3rd placed in a listed race next time out.

Snazzy Jazzy was also 7th in the above race, that I highlighted as hot form ahead of the Portland Handicap a few weeks ago. The 3rd and 5th have both won twice since and the 1st and 2nd have both finished as runner up since giving that form a really solid look. Snazzy Jazzy was only beaten 3 lengths in this race and is now racing off a 5lb lower mark.

His two subsequent runs haven’t been quite so good but he was held up in the centre of the course in the Ayr Gold Cup which was absolutely not the place to be from both a draw and pace perspective. He was then outclassed in a listed race last time out. His runs at 5f on good or good to soft ground in the summer read very well given all his best form previously had come on soft ground at 6f, the scenario he faces on Saturday.

He could easily bounce back to form back at York, pitched into more suitable company on a lenient handicap mark, and although his hold up style isn’t tailor made for this course, he’s already run well here against pace biases. There is also plenty of pace likely in this (four habitual front runners) which will boost both his, and Gulliver’s chances. SNAZZY JAZZY looks far more interesting than Gulliver though given the 33/1 on offer.

Good luck whatever you are backing!

Ascot and Redcar Straight Course Draw Biases (Plus More Chester Hot Form)

Take your pick this weekend when it comes to top racing – there is Group 1 action from Newmarket in the form of the Sun Chariot Stakes, Ascot hosts a couple of Group 3s and some class 2 handicaps and even Redcar has two listed races including their well funded Two Year Old Trophy.

We saw last week at Newmarket that the near side rail was once again the place to be but the stalls will be on the far side for this meeting which will nullify that bias in most races.

I’m going to look at a couple of draw biases this week, at both Ascot and Redcar, with a couple of handicap races in mind.

Ascot Straight Course Draw Bias

Let’s first take a look at data from the straight course at Ascot on ground that is between good and soft.

A huge sample size as we include a variety of distances and the data implies a slight advantage to being drawn middle to high rather than low.

High performs best for win purposes, middle is narrowly ahead of high for places and middle and high both have a PRB of 0.51, compared to 0.48 for low. The lower draws come out the worst across every metric.

From spring to summer I’d nearly always prefer a high draw on anything I’m backing but things begin to change at this time of year. One factor that affects the draw now is a false rail is used at this meeting to save the ground for Champions day. This results in reduced field capacity this weekend and slightly different parts of the track being explored for some runners.

At this meeting in the past there seems to have been various draw biases, or perhaps no draw bias depending on which way you look at it.

We lost this meeting to the weather last year so the last time we had this meeting was back in 2019 and Kynren won the big 7f handicap from stall 17. That same stall was successful in 2018 when Raising Sand won and 16 was the winning stall in 2016. Accidental Agent won this from stall 8 in 2017. These recent wins seem to suggest the high stall bias remains for this meeting.

Just as important as simply looking at where the winners came from is to watch the races back and to see what parts of the course were explored and where on the track the placed horses were. In 2019 they came middle to near side in the ‘Challenge Cup’ and near side seemed to dominate. In a 5f handicap later on in that card they explored the same part of the track and although stalls 1 and 3 both placed, they actually passed the line on the same part of the track (near side) that Kynren won on earlier that day.

Although this is only two races worth of evidence, it does suggest two things. The first is that there seemed to be an advantage to racing near side (high numbers). The second is that without massive, 30 runner fields at this meeting the lower drawn numbers are still able to get over and race on the better ground. So whilst a high draw might be an advantage of some sort again this year, it doesn’t mean you can rule out the low numbers.

What about other recent years? In 2018 high numbers dominated the Challenge Cup but the winner largely raced in the middle of the pack and there didn’t seem as much of an advantage as the placed stall numbers would suggest. There was also a big field that year in the 7f listed race and again the winner came down the middle.

In 2017 the winners were coming middle to far side but then in 2016 they were coming middle or near side.

The overall point here with the draw at this meeting is that if there is a draw bias it’s not the easiest to predict and if you can predict it’s almost certainly not as strong a draw bias as you often see earlier in the season, partly because the field sizes as smaller.

If I could pick the ‘perfect’ draw here I’d probably go for something just on the high side of middle as it’s almost certain you’ll have an excellent chance of winning from there, if good enough. I’d prefer not to be drawn very low but I wouldn’t rule anything out solely because of it.

Challenge Cup 2021 Thoughts

First of all, a note on the ground/weather. Judging by the weather forecast the ground will be just on the soft side of good when racing on Friday finishes and the ground come race time on Saturday (3.50pm) depends very much on how early the heavy rain comes. At the time of writing heavy rain is forecast to hit the course an hour or two before this race. If it comes earlier than that the ground will almost certainly be soft, or if the rain is delayed this could be run on something closer to good to soft.

So it might be an idea to hold your bets unless your bet has no fears on anything the soft side of good.

Ascot is generally a fair course in terms of pace and the most important thing to consider is the individual pace setup in each race.

There really isn’t a lot of likely pace in this race which is automatically going to draw me towards something that likes to race prominently and something that is a bit more speed over stamina.

I’d have concerns over Al Rufaa and Arastus if the ground softens at all. Al Rufaa won a maiden on soft as a 2yo but ran flat last time he encountered cut whilst Arastus was pulled out because of good to soft ground in July.

Fresh is a horse I have a lot of time for, I fancied him strongly in the Wokingham here in June when 2nd to Rohaan. He’s only 2lbs higher now and seems to get on well with cut in the ground  and enjoys this course so clearly isn’t handicapped out of things at all. I just have reservations about this distance. He’s been strong at the finish on recent starts but he’s also a smooth traveller and whilst a muddling 7f won’t be the strongest test of stamina, this will be run at a very different tempo to what he’s used to and he’s unlikely to be ideally placed. There are enough negatives to put me off.

Escobar is another who likes it here and he too is feasibly handicapped. He was 3rd over course and distance behind River Nymph in May in a race that wasn’t strongly run and he found that a bit too much of a speed test. He’s 3lbs higher here and prefers a stronger gallop so he appeals more as one for the Balmoral Handicap later this month, a race he won in 2019.

River Nymph is only 1lb worse off with Escober for that win and has already proved he can operate over course and distance, on soft ground, in a relatively slowly run race. He’s still only raced 12 times and should still have some improvement left in him. There was nothing wrong with his listed 4th last time out when he was given plenty to do and it would be a surprise if more prominent racing tactics aren’t employed here. There is lots to like except the price. He’s shortened plenty since the ante post markets were put up but he should still be a fairly safe each way play with stall 7 not looking too bad.

Aldaary is one that has plenty of experience here. He’s been running in the big 7f handicaps here this summer and hasn’t been getting his ground so he promises to improve on his 5th in both the Buckingham Palace Stakes and the International Stakes now that he does get his ground. He’s a strong stayer at 7f though so whilst he’s one I like from a form and ground perspective, the pace make up here might not suit him and stall 2 probably isn’t the perfect draw.

It’s impossible to put that pace map up and not talk about Tomfre, who could get his own way out in front. He completed a hat trick on very testing ground towards the end of last season, wins that took him from a rating of 93 to 105. You could argue that rating has found him out this season but he was runner up in a listed race on seasonal debut when conceding race fitness to the rest of the field and then he was runner up in a York handicap when far more patiently ridden than usual. His 9th on very fast ground in the Buckingham Palace Stakes here was a fair effort considering he is an out and out mudlark and after that he missed 92 days, presumably due to the dry spell we had. On his return he was 1.75 lengths behind River Nympth at Newbury, admittedly that horse shaped better and was also returning from a break, but again Tomfre would have appreciated softer ground that day. If the ground turns soft Tomfre would rate a good each way bet at around 16/1 and if it managed to come up heavy he'd be a strong bet – although those odds would probably be long gone.

A drastic softening of the ground would also suit Ascension, who will appreciate this drop back in trip and his racing style could be well suited to this race, as well as Young Fire who was 2nd here over a mile at the Shergar Cup meeting in a race that has worked out well enough. He doesn’t really get on with York so he’s forgiven his effort last time out but he appreciates a good gallop as well as plenty of rain and he’s unlikely to get the former.

No prizes for suggesting River Nymph and Aldaary are the most likely winners of this. The former is a bit more versatile tactically speaking so is preferred from the pair however if the heavy rain comes early afternoon it should get into the ground pretty quickly and that would make TOMFRE great value. His draw in stall 11 could be just about perfect too.

Redcar Draw Bias

There seems to have been a huge shift in draw bias at Redcar this season. Here is the data for straight course handicaps in larger fields between 2009 and 2020.

Then here are the same filters just for this season.

Low drawn runners are winning more often, placing more often, and beating more rivals home than ever before.

Now I’m not sure why this is the case but on Saturday we have the 14 runner 2yo listed race and a 15 runner sprint handicap where low draws are likely to be advantaged in a way the bookies don’t quite appreciate and I also think it will have an impact on the 12 runner mile handicap, due off at 4.45.

Straight Mile Series Handicap Final Thoughts

This is the series final and it’s attracted a good field of runners with plenty of course form that has got them into this race.

The pace map shows that Delgrey Boy is likely to get an uncontested lead and if his jockey has much sense he’s going to pop out of stall 1 and head over to the far side rail. There is very little between him, Copper And Five and Sucellus on their course and distance clash a couple of weeks ago and the first two of those are both drawn low but Sucellus is drawn in 11 so the latter could come off worst of the trio this time. Neither Delgrey Boy or Copper And Five look particularly well handicapped anymore so whilst both should enjoy the run of the race, both from a draw and pace perspective, they could be vulnerable to other low drawn runners.

Those two runners may be Give It Some Teddy and Scottish Summit. The latter continues to outrun his odds but is frustrating in that he struggles to get his head in front. He’s only 1lb higher than when 3rd at York, not getting the run of the race, behind two subsequent winners, so he’s well handicapped and should go very well but he may be the bridesmaid yet again.

Give It Some Teddy has won this race for the past two renewals (no race last year) and has managed to turn up this year 2lbs lower than his last win here.

From 11 runs here he has a record of 5 wins and 7 places so he’s very much the course specialist in the field and trainer Tim Easterby could hardly be in much better form – his win strike rate in the past year in handicaps is 11.88% and in the past 14 days that has risen to 15.18%. It’s also worth noting that as well as winning this with Give It Some Teddy in the previous two renewals, he’s actually won four of the last five runnings of the race. He admittedly runs three others here (Delgrey Boy, Perfect Swiss and Al Erayg) but Give It Some Teddy holds those first two runners on recent course form and Al Erayg is 5lbs out of the handicap.

Give It Some Teddy, despite being 2lbs lower than his last win here, comes into this race in good form. He won comfortably at Thirsk in August, beating a next time out winner, and he followed that up with a narrowly beaten 3rd here off a 1lb lower mark than he races off here. That race has also worked out well with the runner up winning by 6 lengths on his next start and the 4th and 5th going on to win soon after too.

Give It Some Teddy has an excellent chance of making it three in a row in this with Scottish Summit feared most.

Hot Form At Chester

Last week at Chester I highlighted some hot form, which admittedly didn’t translate to such good performances on the day for a variety of reasons, but there is a good chance on Saturday for one of those strands of form to receive another boost.

I shared the above form line as a reason to why Muntadab might run well last week. As it was he doubled in price throughout the day and didn’t run to form but there is enough evidence to suggest The Kodi Kid could run a big race on Saturday in the opening race at 1.55pm.

The 2nd and 3rd both came out of that above race and won, as did the 7th, and it was The Kodi Kid who very much emerged from the race as the one to follow. He was weak in the betting, wide throughout and ultimately shaped as though he’d come on for the run – his first for two months and his first for Charlie Fellowes having previously raced for Andrew Balding.

The Kodi Kid has a previous course and distance success to his name on good to soft ground, where he beat a subsequent triple winner, and he still seems to be well handicapped off a 5lb higher mark here. There is a fair bit of rain forecast at Chester and it’s worth also noting that whereas the formbook says his last effort, shown above, came on good ground but the ground was actually changed to soft immediately after that race so it seems plenty of cut suits.

Master Zoffany has won two from two at Chester this season, both wins working out well, and he’d rate the main danger on ground he’ll likely enjoy but he does have to bounce back from a poor effort last time out at Goodwood (he’s been off for two months since).

Good luck with whatever you are backing this weekend.

Your first 30 days for just £1