Previews, tips and trends for major horse racing fixtures across the UK. Detailed day-by-day reports and info on horses, races, courses, events and more.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias?

Cheltenham is going to grab the headlines this weekend so that is where I’ll focus the bulk of my attention. I’ll be looking at pace once again but I’ll be doing it slightly differently this time around.

We all know that pace is extremely important in each race and pace biases exist in some form or another at most UK racecourses but what is often underestimated is relative pace bias. It’s all well and good saying a front runner will be suited by a particular course, but if the horse's recent form has been at a venue that is even more advantageous for front runners then it’s probably fairly likely the horse won’t run as well as the recent efforts (ignoring all other race factors of course).

So this week I’m going to look at how front runners perform at Cheltenham, relative to other racecourses.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias Over Hurdles?

Below you’ll see the performance of front runners, in handicap hurdles, at a variety of distances across UK and Irish racecourses. The data is sorted by Impact Value, which shows how often something is happening relative to the other possible outcomes.

There are several important things to consider from the above data.

Over the minimum distance 52 of the 63 tracks examined have a better IV than Cheltenham. That’s not to say front runners perform poorly at Cheltenham. An IV of 0.92 is fairly respectable (1 would be considered standard, anything above that is ‘positive’, anything above that is ‘negative’) but it’s fairly clear that it’s not as easy to make all at Cheltenham over very short distances as it is at other courses.

At intermediate trips front runners perform less well at Cheltenham. All of the metrics drop and the IV for front runners now stands at 0.64. It’s quite common to find the effectiveness of aggressive tactics decreases over longer trips but we now see just four tracks performing worse for front runners.

Over staying trips the IV for front runners is reduced once again, this time to just 0.36. Over these more extreme trips there is only one course that now has a worse IV for front runners and that is Kelso. There are 8 courses that have an IV of more than 2 so it’s quite feasible that a front runner that has performed well at one of those courses before running at Cheltenham is going to struggle to reproduce the same form around Cheltenham if adopting the same tactics once again (again, not taking into account all of the other race factors at play).

It’s possible that Cheltenham simply hosts more competitive races than other tracks which has a knock on effect as to the success rate of front runners but the racing isn’t becoming any less competitive here so it could be wise to expect front runners to struggle to run quite so well here over hurdles as they have done at other courses.

How Strong Is The Cheltenham Pace Bias Over Fences?

Now time to look at the same data set but this time over the larger obstacles.

Once again Cheltenham is pretty consistent in where it appears on the list for each distance but over fences front runners seem to perform much better than over hurdles.

Cheltenham is in the top 30% of performers out of these racecourses when it comes to front runner IV over minimum distances, scoring 2.08. It’s one of only 16 courses that has an IV of more than 2. The course also performs well when it comes to ROI (38.51%) and A/E (Actual v Expected) which is 1.74. Just like IV, 1 is considered standard or average for A/E with a score above 1 a good performance and a score below one a poorer performance.

Over the intermediate distances over fences Cheltenham has the exact same rank as over shorter distances but it’s worth noting that this time around the IV is down to 1.82. That’s still an excellent performance but obviously not quite as strong as it was over shorter.

Whilst Cheltenham holds the same rank again, it’s also worth noting that the courses and the order above and below change which is something to bear in mind when considering relative performance of front runners over these differing distances. Only six racecourses see a better front runner performance by IV for both of the distances examined so far.

Over marathon trips Cheltenham drops one place in terms of overall rank however the IV actually goes up, very slightly, to 1.83. Again the course sees a strong performance across all metrics for front runners. Only Hereford and Doncaster have stronger front runner performance across all three distance bands examined.

Overall it seems pretty clear that Cheltenham tends to favour front runners over fences more so than it does over hurdles. Over the smaller obstacles the front runner ‘advantage’ decreases as you go up in distance whereas over fences it seems to increase (slightly) the further you go.

November Handicap Draw and Pace Bias Revealed

The flat turf season has it’s last hurrah of the year this weekend with the November Handicap the big betting race on Doncaster's card.

I recently went through straight course biases at Doncaster, the home of the November Handicap, and if you want to remind yourself of my findings ahead of this meeting you can click here to do so.

This article will be concentrating on the round course though and I’ll be previewing the November Handicap runners as well.

Doncaster Round Course Pace Bias For The November Handicap

The pace data at Doncaster for both the 10f distance and 12f distance are both very similar so I am going to combine them here so that this information can be used for other round course races, including the British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes on this card, run over 10f.

In big fields here (14 or more runners) it seems as though it is best of all to race prominently. The best win and place percentages are recorded for this run style (8.02% and 24.69% respectively).

The metrics for front runners give out some slightly contrasting data. The win percentage of 6.67% is bettered only by prominent racers however the place percentage of 13.33% is comfortably the worst performer. Given more data contributes to the place percentages it may seem wise to put more emphasis on this data.

The place percentage for mid division is only very marginally worse than that of prominent so it doesn’t seem to be any sort of disadvantage to follow this run style here however there is a drop off when it comes to hold up performers so it’s probably best to mark this run style down slightly when looking through each field unless the horse in question appears to have plenty in hand and/or there is a strong pace likely.

November Handicap Draw Bias

There wasn’t much variance in the data between distances as far as the pace bias at Doncaster on the round course was concerned but there does seem to be a slight shift when it comes to the draw bias at Doncaster so this time I will only be looking at the 12f distance over which the November Handicap is run.

The win data seems to suggest that ‘not low’ is best as 25 of the 30 wins have been scored by runners drawn either middle or high. The place percentage data is much closer and implies that middle is best of all with low and high both evenly matched - a far cry from the win data.

The PRB data could be most telling here given every runner contributes and this once again suggest middle is the best place to be. It’s not exactly a massive advantage as middle has a PRB of 0.53 compared to 0.49 for high and 0.48 for low, but there does certainly seem to be a bias towards those drawn in the middle.

It’s now time to look at the individual stall data to dig into this further.

Looking first at the place percentages, of the top fourteen stalls, the lowest six stalls are not particularly well represented (only 2 and 5 feature) although 2 does come out with the best over place percentage. In the bottom nine stalls for this metric, three of them are stall 4 or lower and three of them are stall 19 or higher. This is suggesting that the very lowest and very highest stalls could be a bit of a disadvantage which is why we’ve probably seen the middle stalls top most metrics in the low v middle v high comparison.

If you go through the individual PRB figures, nine of the top ten performers are stall 9 or above, which backs up the impression once again that despite low generally being perceived as the place to be around a bend, this probably isn’t the case here. Six of the worst eleven performers are stalls 8 or below.

This isn’t a huge sample so the PRB3 data is most reliable in giving us an overall idea of the best areas of the draw and this is represented in the line graph at the bottom of the image above.

In line with the rest of the data I have highlighted, the very best parts of the draw seem to be between stalls 9 and 18. The very best place to be drawn is probably in the mid to low teens to be precise.

These are only micro advantages though, stalls 2, 5, 7 and 8 all produce plenty of places over this course and distance so it’s not a case of ruling out the majority of the singles figures, or the draws that are 19+. If deciding between two or three runners on a shortlist it may be best to favour those drawn as central as possible though.

November Handicap Draw and Pace Combination

This heat map suggests that leading isn’t going to be a great tactic here, but it’s especially ineffective from a middle draw, which is statistically the place to be in general.

If leading isn’t a good run style for those drawn in the middle, what is? Prominent racers perform extremely well from middle draws, in fact they are seen to best effect of any draw/pace combination here. Mid division is next best for this draw followed by being held up.

If drawn low, there is very little difference in performance between being held up, racing in mid division or racing prominently.

It’s interesting to note that the best tactics for those drawn high are being held up. It’s certainly a case of the more patient ride the better for those drawn high, presumably those that aren’t dropped in suffer a particularly wide trip around the bend.

November Handicap 2021 Preview

As usual, I’d like to take a look at the pace map for this race first.

It looks like the pace is going to come from the very lowest and very highest stalls, courtesy of Whitehaven and Nuit St George. The latter was 3rd in this last year off a 6lb lower mark and a better draw so he could be up against it to reach the places this time around.

There are plenty who can lead in the centre but don’t necessarily habitually lead. It’s unlikely anything will be able to beat Whitehaven to the lead from stall 1 so the likes of Cardano, First Light, Skycutter and Wells Farhh Go should all be prominent as a minimum from their middle draws, and it’s worth noting that run style can be somewhat advantaged from that draw.

We know that the best run style for those drawn high tends to be held up so the main two from the high draws to make appeal on a draw and pace combination are Flyin Solo and Platinumcard, whilst Farhan and Prince Alex should also be considered.

A decent test at the trip seems likely given the softish ground (could be quite tacky with no rain in the more recent build up) and the presence of several pace angles.

It will need to be a decent pace to suit a few of the well fancied runners, notably Calling The Wind and East Asia. I liked Calling The Wind for the Cesarewitch apart from the draw and whilst he seemed to prove his speed for this trip two starts ago at Newbury, he’s gone up another 3lbs since then and might not be well enough handicapped over this trip in this company. East Asia bounced back to form with another win 10 days ago (his 4th of the season) and another 5lbs on his back might not be enough to stop him based on how he won that but he does need to translate all his progression this season to this trip (won on seasonal debut over 12f but off a 20lbs lower mark).

First Light has been the early favourite. He represents John Gosden who has won this race six times, including three wins since 2009. He’s one of three 3yos in this and the classic generation dominated this in the 90s and 00s (11 winners in that period) but they’ve managed just one win from 34 runners since 2009. This age group has the 5th worst place percentage since then, only 7yos have performed worse. It is the 4yos that have the clear best place percentage (23.26%) whilst 6yos are next best but some way off with just 17.5%. The best win percentage also belongs to 4yos.

The trainer name and record in this does seem to have had an effect on First Light’s odds. He won an Ascot handicap in July, a race that has worked out okay at best, and he followed that up with a very poor effort in the 14f listed race last time out. He wasn’t totally disgraced given his rating and the distance (he’d also been off for two months before) but he looks a poor favourite all things considered.

Sam Cooke was sent off just 7/2 for this race last year and is only 1lb higher this time around plus he arrives here in top form so he merits plenty of consideration. He seems to have finally learned to settle again in recent starts and he’s well drawn here but despite previously seeming suited to a soft surface, all his best form this season has coincided with faster ground so there are some questions to answer. It would be no surprise if he ran well but the ground has suddenly become a bit of an unknown for him.

Mr Curiosity could still be anything and he was backed last time out as if defeat was out of the question - and it was as he won by over 5 lengths. That was a poor race though over further and he's not guaranteed to be as well handicapped over this distance in better company. He's preferred to First Light at similar prices and would probably make a stronger favourite than that rival but opposable overall.

All of Global Storm’s best form has come at Newmarket so I’m happy enough to take him on, whilst I’ve always been a Rhythmic Intent fan and he was runner up in this last year but he threw in a bad performance last time out and his win in the Mallard Handicap has probably left him a bit high in the weights. He was behind Dark Jedi last time out over course and distance and that rival travelled like a dream that day only to get beaten late on by a well handicapped rival. He’s gone up 2lbs for that which makes life tougher but he could easily run into a place.

It will be interesting to see if first time blinkers can bring about a return to form for Deja, who is well handicapped on last season’s form but he’s been well off it this season.

The pair I am most interested in from a handicapping point of view (and this is a handicap after all) are Flyin’ Solo and Farhaan. Both are maybe drawn a little higher than ideal but have some good handicap form to their names and should still be open to more improvement.

Flyin’ Solo won one of the best handicaps of the season in April at Newbury over 10f - he’s subsequently a stone higher but the runner up has won off a stone higher mark and the 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th and 12th have all won subsequently. He won a York handicap comfortably next time out on good to soft ground (the softest ground he has encountered) and having gone up 9lbs for that he’s looked just about in the grip of the handicapper since, albeit running pretty well in defeat.

Those runs might be better than they seem though.

At Windsor he was poorly placed as the race developed and the other five runners to finish in the first six all finished either 1st or 2nd shortly after suggesting it was a decent race. Then last time out he was 3rd in a race where the winner and 5th finished runner up next time and the 4th won shortly after. He picked up an injury in that race too, which is why he hasn’t been seen since.

The fact that he’s been gelded since suggests he could have more improvement left in the tank. This will be the softest ground he has encountered but his career best performance came on the softest ground he has run on so far and he’s by Roderic O’Connor whose offspring perform best from a place percentage perspective on either good to soft or soft ground. Flyin’ Solo’s sire was a heavy ground Group 1 winner himself.

Farhaan has been consistent this season, finishing runner up on four of his five starts this year. He excelled in soft ground on his final start as a 2yo but hasn’t had soft ground since and has probably run his two best races this season on the two races he’s had on good to soft ground. Those were a 2nd over 10f at Sandown, staying on well to be beaten just a neck, and also a 2nd in the Old Rowley Cup, generally one of the most competitive handicaps of the season. He's had a pretty light campaign, is very consistent and remains completely unexposed over this sort of test.

Summary

I can see both running very well and being amongst the places. Farhaan’s tendency to finish 2nd and the recent record of 3yos in this race is slightly off putting so preference would be for FLYIN' SOLO, representing 4yos who do so well in this. This being his first run since a slight injury is a bit of a question mark but he’s still had just 8 starts so should have plenty more left to give and there should be enough pace to carry him into the race. The fact that he comes here a fresh horse at the end of a long season could be what gives him the biggest edge.

East Asia and Calling The Wind should run well enough, possibly without being quick enough whilst Dark Jedi is another who should provide a decent run for each way punters. 

Breeders’ Cup Compendium: Free Download

Every year, geegeez.co.uk produces a companion guide to the Breeders' Cup, called the Breeders' Cup Compendium. It's packed full of stats, trends, course info, pace maps, odds, video form, and form analysis. Often there is a small charge to access, and occasionally it is free. This year it's free. Whoop!

The guide is produced in stages, like a restaurant that brings the food as it is ready rather than all together; and you can download the latest version below.

CURRENT VERSION: 1.0 - COMPLETE

DOWNLOAD HERE >

 

DOCUMENT NOW FINAL - GO STEADY, AND GOOD LUCK!

 

Matt

Wetherby Pace Bias Over Both Hurdles And Fences

The first weekend in a very long time where national hunt racing is the sole serving on ITV and although the flat isn’t completely done with yet (it’s the November Handicap next week which signals the official end of the flat turf season), jumps racing will largely be the focus in the coming months.

Ascot and Wetherby host the majority of Saturday’s live races and it will be interesting to look at potential pace biases at both tracks over the winter. This is Wetherby’s big day, whereas Ascot has other feature days, so I’m going to concentrate on Wetherby this week.

Wetherby Hurdle Pace Bias

Wetherby hosts hurdle races over 2m, 2.5m and 3m at this meeting so I’ll look at each distance individually.

2m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby

Let’s first examine the pace bias over the minimum distance over hurdles here.

This course and distance certainly seems to suit those up with the pace when racing over hurdles. Front runners have both the best win percentage and place percentage in medium sized fields.

Front runners have produced an 18.37% win strike rate and a 38.78% place percentage, with this run style proving profitable when backed blind for both win and each way purposes.

Prominent racers have the clear second best win percentage although they are narrowly third best to mid division when it comes to place percentage.

Those that are held up certainly seem at a disadvantage here with the worst win percentage (6.38%) and comfortably the worst place percentage (23.4%).

2.5m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby

Do we see the same sort of pace bias over a little further here?

The answer is no. This time around front runners have the worst win strike rate and hold up performers have the best win strike rate. This trend isn’t quite echoed with the place percentages, which do hold more weight in a sample of this size, but the win percentages and place percentages are all very closely matched.

The only run style here that is profitable, and profitable for both win and each way bets, is mid division so that may be most favoured but the bottom line over this two and a half mile trip over hurdles at Wetherby is that there doesn’t look to be any real sort of pace bias.

3m Hurdle Pace Bias At Wetherby

So how does the data over a three mile trip look like?

Not the biggest of samples here but we do see a slight swing back to front runners enjoying the run of things over this longer distance with the pacesetters gaining both the best win percentage and best place percentage.

Front runners certainly aren’t as dominant as they were over 2m here though and the data is far more closely matched, just as it was over half a mile shorter.

Front runners are profitable to back blind for both win and each way purposes and prominent racers have the next best place percentage suggesting that being nearer the pace is certainly some sort of advantage. There is only around 5.5% difference though in place percentages between front runners and being held up so the pace bias here, and there does seem to be one, is not a strong one.

Wetherby Chase Pace Bias

The main races over fences at this meeting are run over 2.5m and 3m so these distances will be the focus over the larger obstacles.

2.5m Chase Pace Bias At Wetherby

This distance was pretty even and fair over hurdles and although there isn’t a huge amount in the figures here we do seem to see a bias towards those who race nearer the pace.

The best win percentages and place percentages belong to front runners and prominent racers (front runners edge it as far as the win data is concerned, prominent racers do better for place purposes).

Meanwhile the worst of the data performance belongs to mid division and held up.

There does seem a fairly substantial drop off in place strike rate when you go from prominent to mid division. Prominent racers have a place percentage of 37.95% and that drops all the way down to 25% (the same as hold up performers have) for mid division.

The takeaway here seems to be that when racing over 2.5m over fences at Wetherby it pays to be in the front half of the field early.

3m Chase Pace Bias At Wetherby

It’s difficult to know what to make of this data with front runners having the worst win percentage but the best place percentage.

The overall trend for the win data is also difficult to decipher given how up and down it is so it should definitely pay to concentrate on the place data, which gives us three times as much data as the win sample.

As previously mentioned, the top place percentage belongs to front runners here and it’s also worth noting that the worst place percentage goes to those that are held up. There is over 10% difference in the figures which seems fairly significant.

Prominent and mid division are fairly closely matched and although mid division actually slightly outperforms prominent the overall trajectory of the place percentages seems to suggest closer to the pace the better but the bias towards those nearer the pace doesn’t seem as strong as it is over shorter distances here.

Hopefully this information helps you pick a few more winners, and a few less losers at Wetherby this weekend and this season.

Newmarket Analysis

As far as betting races are concerned this weekend, for me there are a couple of interesting contests over at Newmarket whilst the majority of the jumpers get their seasonal pipe openers out of the way.

The 2.23 at Newmarket is a class 3 mile handicap and judging by the very early betting I’d rather be with the bigger prices than the shorter prices. This is definitely the race I’m most interested in.

I’m still fairly interested in Scottish Summit despite the fact that he’s without a win in 13 months and just seems to be finding one or two too good in almost every race. He was better than the bare form last time at Redcar (had to switch away from the favoured rail to get a run and was racing against a pace bias) and before that he’d been in good form, finding just a lightly raced, promising 3yo too good when travelling best at Doncaster. He should be good for another place again here.

I quite fancied Fairy Cakes last time out at Newbury as she had a couple of interesting pieces of form to her name. She beat the progressive Wink Of An Eye early in the season at Goodwood. Admittedly Fairy Cakes is now 15lbs higher but she beat that rival by 2 lengths and Wink Of An Eye is now rated 25lbs higher and the 3rd also won next time out giving that form a really solid look.

Fairy Cakes is proven off a higher mark too.

She dropped back to this mile trip at Sandown in June and finished 2nd to Hoodwinker, who has won again since. The 3rd won her next two starts, the fifth won next time out and even the 7th won two starts later.

When racing six weeks later off a 1lb higher mark I thought she was a very good thing but she was weak in the betting and finished last, beaten 24 lengths. She’s been off since and that run came 108 days ago so it clearly wasn’t her running but will she be able to resume progression here?

The good news is that trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has had two winners and two runners up from her last six runners, including two at 33/1, so she’s clearly got her string running well. In the past 12 months though her handicap runners have achieved a PRB of 0.51 but her handicap runners who have been off 60+ days have only managed a PRB of 0.4 so Fairy Cakes isn’t guaranteed to be fully wound up unfortunately. Any rain could be against her too. One to watch in the market maybe.

It’s also worth mentioning Redarna, probably not with this race in mind. I wrote ahead of his run at the Ayr Western Meeting that with a bit of cut in the ground he would probably be pretty much unbeatable at that venue in the right sort of company given his record at the track. I was therefore pretty perplexed when he was weak in the market and one of the first beaten. However he returned there just two weeks later and won a better race comfortably, proving my theory about him correct to a certain degree.

He’s since let that form down slightly at York but that’s clearly not his course and it’s worth noting how well his Ayr win has now worked out.

The 2nd, 3rd and 4th have all won since whilst the 5th, 6th and 7th have all placed since. Redarna is definitely one to look out for again next season at Ayr, even at the ripe old age of 8 which he'll hit at the turn of the year.

But with this race in mind I’m going to be backing Scottish Summit to place and I’ll be monitoring Fairy Cakes in the market.

Breeders’ Cup 2021: Trends

This will be the 38th renewal of the great transatlantic set to that is the Breeders' Cup and, while some races are newer than that, most have a historical identikit profile worth noting. What follows are some observations based on what we've seen previously in the hope that it may inform what happens on the first weekend in November.

Breeders' Cup 2021: Friday Trends

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (1m, Turf) (14 renewals to date)

  • Euro 8 US 6 (Euro 1st Del Mar 2017, always handy from post 1)
  • 2-6 runs (13/14 had 2 to 5 runs - Prior Starts: 2-2/3-3/4-6/5-2/6-1)
  • 5/6 US won at 1m+, only 3/8 Euro won at 1m (incl ’17 & '18 winners, however)
  • 1st-3rd Fav Only 7 from 42 (14 renewals) - 50% winners outside top 3 in betting
  • 14/14 Top 3 LTO or within 2L of winner (ran sharp)
  • 0 Front Runner winners (8 CLOSERS, 6 PROMINENT)
  • 6 of the 8 Euro winners plus Hootenanny recorded RPR of 110+; '16 winner 108 LTO, '18 winner 105 LTO
  • 8/8 Euro winners placed in G1/2 LTO, or won lesser stakes; 3 of last 5 Euro winners placed in Dewhurst LTO ('18 winner won G3 LTO)
  • 6/6 US winners had won a Stakes and were placed 123 in all Stakes runs
  • Euro winners 20-42 days absent (5/8 20 or 21 days); US 20, 34, 34, 35, 49, 68 days absent
  • Pilgrim Stakes considered a key prep: got 1st win in ’16, 2nd win in '19, 3rd win in '20

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (1m½f, Dirt) (37 renewals to date)

  • >> Good race for an upset when trials were slow…
  • 16 of the last 19 had 3-5 career starts (exceptions, 2 starts, ’07, ’17 & '19)
  • Last 19, career runs: 2-3/3-7/4-6/5+-3
  • Layoff: 32/37 were running within 30 days (‘16 winner 35 days off); (34/37 5 weeks off or less)
  • 30/37 (81%) had a Grade 1, 2 or 3 win, from c.60% of the runners. 3/7 non-qualifiers placed in Frizette (incl. ’17 winner)
  • 21/26 improved Beyer when racing 7f+ for 1st time (excludes pre-Beyer BC's and winners with no 7f+ form)
  • 90+ Beyer = very strong, 80+ 1 or 2 starts = strong
  • 34/37 were top 4 or less than 4L behind the winner last time out
  • Favourite is 18/37 (49%)
  • "Look beyond the obvious when trials were slow", favour lightly raced improver
  • 22/37 (59%) had NOT won at the distance

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m, Turf) (13 renewals to date)

  • 8/11 US winners ran in Miss Grillo or Natalma, ’17/'20 winners exited Jessamine, '19 winner minor Stakes
  • US 11 Euro 2 (both Euro in the two non-Lasix years)
  • 12/13 finished top 3 or within 1.5L of the winner last time out (exception ran in Miss Grillo)
  • 12/13 won at 1m+ (exception, Flotilla, 1.5L behind in Arc weekend G1)
  • 13/13 finished top 3, or within 1.5L of the winner, in a Stakes race
  • Frontrunners 3, Prominent 6, Late runners 4
  • Layoff: 3wks-2 / 4wks-3 / 5wks-5 / 6wks-1 / 7wks-2 (Euro 4-5wks)
  • Prior Runs: US winners 2-7; 3-2; 4-1; 5-0; 6-1 / Euro winners 4-1; 5-1
  • 80+ Beyer – 8/11 recorded 81+ (2 others had only 2 starts) / Euro RPR's 114, 106
  • 2 Euro winners ran in G1 races LTO (1st, 1.5L 4th) - Euro^ = G1 LTO
  • Chad Brown has trained 5 JFT winners (4 in California) , incl. 5 of the last 7
  • 4 of Chad's 5 won the Ms Grillo
  • All US exacta: 5/13

Breeders' Cup Juvenile (1m ½f, Dirt) (37 renewals so far)

  • 35/37 ran 123 or within 4L of the winner last time out
  • Look for solid workouts, especially off a longer (35+ day) layoff
  • 19 of the last 28 winners posted a new Beyer top LTO
  • 18 of last 25 winners improved their Beyer racing at 7f+ for the first time
  • Uncoupled entries won in 2010, 2013 and 2015
  • Prior runs of US winners since 2000: 2-6 (incl 4 in last 8 years)/ 3-5 / 4-6

Breeders' Cup 2021: Saturday Trends

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (7f, Dirt) (14 renewals so far)

  • Winner's age: 64454455445333
  • 3yo's 3 from 39 to date; '18 winner 3yo, 20/1; '19 1st/2nd only two 3yo's in the field
  • 3yo's won 0 of first 11, and now won last 3!
  • 13/14 finished in the top 3, or within 3L of the winner, last time (not ’17 winner)
  • 11/14 won at 7f; 5/14 2+ wins at 7f
  • 11/14 won or were 2nd in a G1 ('17 winner 2nd 7f G1 2 yrs ago, '18 winner 1st G2 LTO, only 7f start)
  • TCA at Keeneland is a key prep (albeit over 6f) –
  • PID Masters also key race – no longer being run?
  • Surface switch (synth or turf to dirt) : 7/14 winners; '18 winner 1stx2 on synths prior to final prep on dirt
  • Fav 5/14, 2nd fav 2/14, 3rd fav 0/14. 7/14 4th or lower in the betting

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (5f, Turf) (13 renewals so far)

  • 9/13 were distance winners (material when run at 5 1/2f, not relevant in 2021)
  • Age 3-1; 4-5; 5-3; 6-3; 8-1 (all largely in line with representation)
  • 11/13 winners were top 3 or within 3L of the winner last time out (not ’17 winner)
  • 11/13 had 99+ Beyer or 115+ RPR; 13/13 96+ Beyer or 115+ RPR
  • 12/13 had 4+ starts in year
  • 12/13 had a 28+ day layoff
  • 13/13 placed in Graded Stakes (9/13 WON Graded Stakes)
  • Europeans 1 from 12 so far (Glass Slippers in 2020)
  • Favourite is 4/13
  • Peter Miller won the three renewals between 2017 and 2019 (including 2x exacta!)
  • Y/N - Previous runs, not what is declared for BC
  • CT - Class turnback, as deployed by Bobby's Kitten 2014

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (1m, Dirt) (14 renewals to date)

  • 11/14 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 last time out (but NOT '19 or '20 winners)
  • All 14 notched at least one 100+ Beyer in their last two races
  • 9/14 had 5+ runs in the year, 8/14 had 6+ runs in year
  • # of runs from 2012: 5-8-4-3-3-9-4-7-2 (tendency to less, '20 winner lightest raced in the season ever)
  • Seasonal run breakdown: 2-1/3-2/4-2/5-1/6-2/7-1/8-2/9-2/10-1
  • Layoff: 11/14 27-42 days ('18 winner 70 days, '19 winner 20 days)
  • 8/14 'turned back' in distance (2/4 exceptions were Goldencents)
  • Top 3 favourites: Fav 3/14; 2nd fav 3/14; 3rd fav 1/14 [7/14 outside top 3 in betting]
  • Age 3-4/4-8/5-1/6-1 = 12/14 aged 3 or 4yo
  • 13/14 had won a Graded Stakes in career
  • 9/14 had won at a mile (not '20 winner)

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (1m3f, Turf) (22 renewals to date)

  • US/import 12 Europe 10
  • 8/8 US winners 1st/2nd LTO; 3/4 ex-Euro imports 1st LTO; 1/10 Euro 1st LTO!
  • Layoff: US/import 10/12 35 days or less; '18 winner off 84 days (Chad)); Euro, anything goes!
  • Age: 3-6 (all Euro, including 16, 17 & 19 winners); 4-10; 5-4; 6 or more-1
  • Since 2007, Euro 3yo: 4, US: 8, Euro 4yo+: 2
  • 20/22 - 4-7 runs this season (other 2 had 3 starts)
  • 9 of 12 US winners had a race at Keeneland that season
  • Since 2012, Chad Brown 4 Europe 5 (all 11/1 or shorter, 2nd with the fav in 2020 from 4 starters)
  • Del Mar start makes life potentially tricky for very low and high stalls

Breeders' Cup Sprint (6f, Dirt) (37 renewals to date)

  • 2007-2019, the BC Sprint winners came into the race with a combined 80/150 lifetime win record (53%)
  • Whitmore in 2020 was 14/37 lifetime (38%)
  • Last 29 winners had at least 50% 1-2 strike rate at 6f
  • 35/37 won a G1-3 that season
  • 1+ 6f wins AND ran sharp 7f last 12 months a solid recent angle
  • 22 of the last 28 had 2+ 6f wins that season
  • 13 of the last 23 winners were 50%+ lifetime winners
  • 12 of last 17 winners had 5 or fewer seasonal starts ('19 & '20 winners 6 starts)
  • 20 of last 27 winners showed a bullet workout
  • 28 of last 29 winners notched at least 103 Beyer in same season

Breeders' Cup Mile (1m, Turf) (37 renewals to date)

  • 18 of last 19 winners had 4-6 seasonal starts
  • 16/19 winners since 2002 had 2+ mile turf wins (exceptions, Euros Karakontie 2014, Expert Eye 2018, Order of Australia 2020)
  • Repeat winners common (Miesque, Lure, Da Hoss, Goldikova, Wise Dan)
  • 16 of the last 25 were US winners; 7 French-trained (UK/Ire 2 for 81 since 1995, Expert Eye in 2018, Order of Australia 2020)
  • Only Goldikova (x3), Karakontie, Expert Eye, Order of Australia have stemmed US dominance since 2004
  • 9/11 3yo winners were Euros (4 fillies); 12/13 5yo+ winners were US (exception Goldikova #3)
  • Euro G1 win important, US any Graded win (Expert Eye, Order of Australia no G1 win)
  • 24 of the last 27 ran 123 last time, or finished within 4L of the winner (Order of Australia an exception)
  • Career record at 1m of BC Mile winners since 2002: Runs 141, 1st 81 (57%), 2nd 30 (21%)
  • Thus, the last 19 BC Mile winners had a collective 78% 1-2 record at the distance
  • No front runner has been 1st or 2nd since 2000

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (1m1f, Dirt) (37 renewals to date)

  • 29/37 won by 3 or 4yo's ('19 winner 6yo, '20 winner 5yo though missed entire 4yo season)
  • 17/37 won by 4yo's (including 10 of the last 19)
  • 36/37 finished top 3 or within 4L of winner last time out
  • 21 of the last 30 winners ran 6-8 times in the year ('19 winner 5 runs, '20 winner 3 runs)
  • 27/33 1m1f Distaff winners had won at the distance already
  • Layoff: 29/37 35 days or less ('20 winner off 64 days)
  • 26/33 1m1f Distaff winners had won a Grade 1 in same year
  • The favourite is 16/37 (43% SR)
  • 34/37 had recorded a Beyer of 100+

Breeders’ Cup Turf (1m4f, Turf) (37 renewals to date)

  • 25/26 winners to have raced at the distance had been at least 2nd (Found in 2015 the exception)
  • Layoff: US 35 days or less (19 winner off 3 months); Euro any
  • 37/37 aged 3-5yo; 6yo+ 0/56
  • Euro 3yo's 7; US 3yo's 2 (last one in 1989)
  • 29/37 won G1 that season (7/8 exceptions were Euro, & averaged 13/1). US *MUST* have won G1 same season
  • 12/23 Euro winners last ran in the Arc (not usually the 'obvious' one, though Enable doubled up in '18)
  • Arc winners are 1/7 in same season (Enable first horse to do the double)
  • 8 US winners ran in Joe Hirsch, six of them winning that key prep ()
  • 24/27 since '94 had 3-8 starts - 3-5; 4 or 5-7; 6 to 8-12 (5 of last 9 had 6-8 seasonal runs, Enable won off just 2 runs in '18, Tarnawa off 3 in '20)
  • Every winner to have had at least two 1m4f runs won or was 100% ITM at the distance
  • Europe 16 1/2 US 5 1/2 since 1999 (2xUS winners trained Graham Motion, Englishman)

Breeders’ Cup Classic (1m2f, Dirt) (37 renewals so far)

  • All of the last 20 Classic winners had 3-8 runs that season
  • 36/37 ran 1-2-3 LTO (22 x 1st; 9 x 2nd; 5 x 3rd)
  • 33/37 won a G1 that season
  • 37/37 aged 3-5 (6yo+ 0/33) – 3yo 12 wins; 4yo 15 wins; 5yo 9 wins. (Tom's D'Etat 7/2, aged 7 in 2020, finished 2nd last)
  • 21 of last 32 posted stamina (6f+) workout since last run
  • 10/11 40+ day layoffs posted Bullet AND/OR Stamina works since last run
  • 10/13 3yo winners ran in at least one Triple Crown race (1 exception was a Euro)
  • 21 of the last 25 posted 100+ Beyer last time but below previous best ('19 winner, 106, new Beyer top; '20 winner, 105, equalled his top Beyer)
  • Where no distance form, check breeding for stamina credentials

 

Good luck!

Doncaster Draw and Pace Bias On The Straight Track

As we move towards the jumps season the quality of Saturday flat recent declines, and we start seeing live weekend racing from Cheltenham once again.

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There is still pretty good racing from Doncaster though on Saturday, including Group 1 action, and it’s worth noting that seven of the eight races at Doncaster on Saturday will be run on the straight course. This must therefore be the ideal opportunity to investigate potential draw and pace biases at Doncaster on softer ground, which tends to dominate conditions at this time of year.

Doncaster Straight Course Draw Bias On Softer Ground

On straight courses you don’t tend to see draw biases change over different distances so we can look at a collection of distances together to get as much data as possible at courses such as Doncaster.


Overall across these distances there seems very little between the data for each draw type. The win percentages and place percentages are all pretty similar whilst the PRB figures suggest high is maybe slightly better with a PRB of 0.52 compared to 0.49 for both low and middle.

This data probably means one of two things. The first is that there is simply no real draw bias at Doncaster and you can have a pretty much even chance whichever part of the course you race on.

The second possibility is that at different points in the year there can be varying biases in the course and sometimes it’s better to be drawn a bit lower, and sometimes it’s better to be drawn higher. This can be the case at Ascot and is probably the case here too.

At the Lincoln meeting in 2021 for example, a high draw seemed very important. At this meeting in 2020 a low draw seemed an advantage.

If betting before a meeting begins, going for something towards the middle might be the safest option as you’ll never be too far away from favoured part of the course (if there is one). If possible it could be best to hold bets until a few races have developed. Even then though, the jockeys can suddenly explore a different part of the track and decide that is the favoured side.

Doncaster Straight Course Pace Bias On Softer Ground

Is the pace bias going to be any easier to predict? Front runners tend to be favoured more over shorter trips so it’s a good idea to look at each straight course distance separately this time.

Doncaster 5f Pace Bias

This shows why it is good to compare both win and place percentages. Amazingly from the above sample, which is for biggish fields on good or worse ground, no front runners have won which obviously gives them a 0% win strike rate. That’s pretty rare for the minimum distance! However the best place percentage of these run styles belongs to none other than front runners - they have a 25% place strike rate.

Prominent run styles here over the minimum dominant in terms of win percentages and provide by far more winners than any other run type. They are also only just behind front runners in terms of place percentage so it seems being close to the pace is definitely an advantage, as it is at most courses over 5f. But being right on the pace in bigger fields must leave you vulnerable here in the final furlong handing the advantage, as far as winning is concerned, to the prominent racers.

Given an advantage for prominent racers and front runners you’d expect mid division to perform better than held up but although it’s close, held up actually edges mid division. It’s certainly not the case that it’s impossible to come from way off the pace here over 5f and granted a decent early gallop and good form it would be unwise to be completely put off those that are patiently ridden but it’s definitely worth marking up those that race prominently in many races over this trip.

Doncaster 6f Pace Bias

The prominent racer bias doesn’t lend itself to all sprint trips here, over 6f the pendulum swings firmly in favour of front runners, despite the large field sizes in the sample.

Front runners impressively dominate and produce very healthy win and each way profits. There is no reason I can think of why they should be more effective over 6f than 5f but it simply seems to be the case.

Prominent racers actually fare worst of all now but only marginally worse than mid division or held up. This again suggests that just because there is an advantage towards either front runners or prominent racers, it is not a huge disadvantage to be held up.

So just as was the case with 5f, don’t rule out anything based on run style but do mark up the chances of a certain run style, this time front runners.

Doncaster 7f Pace Bias

Over 7f we are seeing a much fairer spread of results, in fact a remarkably even spread!

There is barely 1.5% between the win percentages and less than 3% between the place percentages.

It’s impossible to say any run style is either advantaged or disadvantaged over 7f at Doncaster away from fast ground. The main takeaway here could be to upgrade those that race in mid division or are held up that ran well enough last time out at a pace favouring track as they are likely to improve on that run this time around, assuming other conditions are in their favour.

Doncaster 1m Pace Bias

Over 5f we saw a slightly confusing win percentage and place percentage combination for front runners and it happens again over a mile.

The win percentages would have you believe that front running is the best run style over a mile here whereas the place percentages suggest it is the worst. There are a couple of things to consider with this.

A relatively small sample size means more emphasis should be put on the place data rather than win data, whilst still respecting the win data. On top of that we should also be looking at the trajectory of data for the other run styles.

The win percentages are pretty even for the other three run styles whilst the place percentages are also pretty even, but improve for those held up. Given the best place percentage is for held up and the worst place percentage is for front runners that seems to suggest the further off the pace you are the better. It’s worth noting though that there aren’t great jumps in the figures from one run style to another so just like the 7f distance this looks a pretty fair distance but preference begins to go towards the hold up performers, whereas it was with front runners over 6f and prominent racers over 5f.

Overall, it is no surprise that the shorter distances favour those nearer the pace, that’s a common theme in racing, but those that race nearer the rear still have a fair record over the shorter trips and that record improves dramatically over a little further suggesting Doncaster is a track that favours patience more than many others.

4.20 Doncaster - Virgin Bet Handicap Preview

This 5f handicap is comfortably the most interesting race on the card for me. A turn out of 15 runners is slightly disappointing from an each way perspective but as is often the case these days, most bookies are offering 4 places on this race as standard and a couple are even offering 5 places which gives the each way betting a more appealing feel.

I often start my analysis of a race with the pace map and that looks a good starting point here.

There looks to be at least 4 front runners in this and they are Indian Sounds, El Astronaute, Dakota Gold and Copper Knight. The first three of those are drawn relatively close together in the lower numbers and Copper Knight should give the higher numbers a good tow.

The pace data here over 5f suggests that prominent racers should be marked up but it’s worth remembering that the more patiently ridden runners do go well here too and with a likely contested speed they could end up just as advantaged as those nearer the pace, if not more so.

I’m going to declare early that I think those nearer the head of the betting could dominate this. If picking a bit of ‘each way value’ at double figure prices I’d suggest that Zim Baby (25/1) is overpriced and will enjoy the ground and a thorough test at this trip. He was 3rd in a listed contest here 12 months ago and although he hasn’t got his head in front this term he was beaten just a nose on soft ground at Ripon off a 1lb higher mark earlier this season and he’s run as if in form on his last three starts, all of which came on ground that would have been too fast. The bookies have him beating just one home, he’ll do much better than that.

Other than that I’d expect Sunday Sovereign to run well as he enjoys this sort of ground and did well to get as close as he did last time out at Catterick given he came from off the pace and the other four who finished around him raced closer to the pace. He doesn’t hold too many secrets from the handicapper though and is ‘only’ 9/1.

He was behind Zargun on that occasion, who opposes here. Based on weight for distance Sunday Sovereign should pretty much dead heat with Zargun here but given the pace favouring profile of Catterick compared to Doncaster I’d expect Sunday Sovereign to finish ahead of Zargun this time around.

Another who should finish ahead of Zargun is Illusionist. Illusionist beat Zargun at York a couple of weeks ago by a neck and is also 3lbs better off here thanks to Zargun franking that form since. Again, Zargun also loses out on the fact that he very much got the run of the race at York whereas Illusionist didn’t. So that’s two I have finishing ahead of the relatively short priced Zargun.

On the subject of that Illusionist win at York, it really is a performance worth watching if you have that option and haven’t seen it already. Not only did nothing else come from off the pace in that race, nothing made any inroads off the pace all day at York. His performance, when coming from last to first, really should be marked up significantly.

Then there is the strength of that race. Zargun, the runner up, won next time out whilst the 4th finished a fair 3rd next time. This, in combination with how well he did to come from last to win, suggests a 5lb rise is very lenient. He now runs off 89 and he was beaten a short head last season off this mark by Live In The Moment - that runner has subsequently rated 15lbs higher.

For a horse that so clearly wants softer ground, Illusionist hasn’t run on it that many times which still leaves him unexposed in such conditions. His form figures on good to soft or worse read 5620311. That in itself doesn’t look overly impressive but the 5th came in a listed race at Royal Ascot, the 6th came in a 21 runner handicap at Royal Ascot and the 0 came in last season’s Ayr Silver Cup when he didn’t quite seem ready for 6f. He’s won both runs on softish ground this season and his form figures in fields of 20 or less in softish ground are 2311.

Illusionist is clearly one I am very interested in at around 7/1, as you’ll be able to tell, and another is Boundless Power, who is a slightly shorter price. He was a winner last time out in heavy ground at Ascot and before that found only subsequent Group 3 winner Hurricane Ivor too good in the Portland here. He’s 4lbs higher than that win and 7lbs higher than his Portland run but since being gelded in April he has produced form figures of 12121 over 5f with cut in the ground so he’s clearly a major player here.

He doesn’t really have any recent ‘hot form’ to note like Illusionist does but his 5th at Ascot in July is worth examining.

Pretty much every horse that ran well has since franked the form, even the winner, who hasn’t won again since, has run well enough in group company. Boundless Power bumped into plenty of improvers that day and this came on good ground, not soft ground. He is 6lbs higher this time around but this race is unlikely to be as strong as that Ascot race was and conditions will suit more here too so he’s certainly entitled to go close.

Raasel is the unexposed one in the line up, from the same yard as Boundless Power. With these two runners, Mick Appleby has the first two in the betting so it will be interesting to see which direction they each go in the betting.

A 201 day break seemed to do the trick for Raasel as he’s won three on the bounce since, all relatively comfortably and certainly more comfortable than the winning distances suggest. Those races did lack strength in depth though so whilst it’s impossible to say he doesn’t have more left in the tank, it’s also difficult to prove he’s necessarily ahead of his mark of 81, having gone up a total of 8lbs for his hat trick of wins. He’ll certainly need to be as he’s actually racing off 85 here, 7lbs higher than his last win, due to the fact that he’s 4lbs out of the handicap. It’s easy to understand why connections are taking that chance with the prize money on offer but as a punter I hate backing horses that are out of the handicap , certainly by this much, and I feel the bookies don’t fully account for that with their prices. Had he been raised 7lbs for his last win I think he’d be a bigger price here despite the fact that he’s still running from a 7lb higher mark.

I was already willing to chance Illusionist and Boundless Power against Raasel even off his correct mark. I realise Adam Farragher takes off ‘the handy 5lbs’ as they say but that’s what apprentices do anyway and his lowest riding weight in the past 12 months is 7-10, 4lbs lower than the weight Raasel should carry here so it will be interesting to see if he can shave an extra 1lb off that to use his full claim.

Either way my two against the field are ILLUSIONIST and Boundless Power, with slight preference for the former because he’s had fewer chances in ideal conditions and did extremely well to win a warm race last time out. I’ll probably have a small saver on Boundless Power, who I think is almost certain to be in the first four, and I’ll be very interested in a reverse forecast too given I think this race lacks real strength in depth. I'm generally not one for backing last time out winners but I will do when I still think they offer value.

Others To Note At Doncaster

One runner I am quite interested in for the 2.05pm at Doncaster is Another Batt. This is a wide open handicap but Another Batt ran well last time out when a lot of things weren’t in his favour.

He ran the same day as Illusionist when York was heavily favouring front runner, even more than it often does. He was 6th in a 20 runner mile handicap and he finished a running on 6th, doing best of those held up and doing so from stall 20 which is rarely the place to be over a mile at York.

The mile probably didn’t play to his strengths either, all seven of his wins have come over shorter and he’s even effective at 6f. His most recent win was a comfortable one off a 1lb lower mark and although he’s not the most consistent it looks as though he has been freshened up by a break and is back to form. Everything should be in his favour here so I’m expecting a big run from him at a decent price. He's not necessarily the most likely winner (there are some interesting 3yos) but I'd fancy him as an each way punt.

One runner I am sadly against on Saturday is Aaddeey who runs in the 2.40pm at Doncaster. I say sadly because this is very much a horse on my radar as being well handicapped but he’s been running on the wrong ground nearly all season. He’s well handicapped on several pieces of form, none more so than when beating Rodrigo Diaz by 4.5 lengths. He’s now 12lbs higher because of that but that rival is now rated 22lbs higher!

So why the lack of interest on Saturday? The ground has once again gone against him for a start. Even more reason to oppose him is the record of Simon and Ed Crisford’s runners after a 60+ day break. Aaddeey has seemingly had a slight problem because when the ground suddenly came right for him a couple of months ago he was completely absent from the races you’d expect him to be running in. He’s been off 84 days and although he went well fresh on seasonal debut, Simon and Ed Crisford’s runners have achieved a PRB of just 0.34 with handicap runners in the past 90 days returning from a 60+ day break whereas their total handicap runners in the same period have a PRB of 0.51. Those disappointments include runners at 3/1, 4/1, and 4/1 and the common theme has been that they are weak at the finish.

Reading between the lines, he’s had an issue and the target this season is going to be the November Handicap back here in a couple of weeks’ time. The ground may well go against him there again but this has the look of a prep run and for a horse rated 99, do they really want to win here and carry another 5lbs or 6lbs in the big one? Unlikely. The ideal scenario for me, who desperately wants to be on Aaddeey when he does win, is an okay performance here without winning and then he turns up in the November Handicap after an unseasonal dry and warm spell in the next fortnight. That might be wishful thinking but he won’t be carrying my money here. I’d much rather back Rhythmic Intent in this at the same sort of price in a race that admittedly probably isn’t going to take a great deal of winning.

Ascot Champions Day Draw And Pace Bias

There is no debate about where the top action is this weekend. It’s Champions Day and all eyes will be on Ascot.

The course biases won’t be seen to full effect in the smaller field Group races but these races do attract bigger fields and there is also the big field Balmoral Handicap so Ascot course biases should still be on show on Champions Day.

The key thing to consider here is the changing course biases as the year goes on at Ascot. We can often see a very strong draw bias at Ascot in October which could help us narrow down some of the more difficult races.

Ascot Straight Track Draw Bias In October

It often pays to be on the near side of the track (high numbers) for the early part of the year at Ascot but does that change in October?

This table shows results at Ascot from the past five years in straight track races in fields of 16 or more.

We only have 14 races to look at which means a small sample, so a pinch of salt is taken with this data, but this is what it seems to say.

Firstly, 10 of these 14 races were won by single figure stalls. That means 71% of the winners have come from 50.6% of the runners, those that were drawn lowest. A tick for lower draws when it comes to finding the winners.

How about the places? Well the four best EW PL figures belong to stalls 4, 1, 8 and 7. In total 39 out of 53 places belong to stall 10 or lower, that’s 73.6% of places from 56.2% of the lowest drawn runners.

So that certainly seems to more than hint at lower draws having an advantage on the straight track at Ascot in October and the draw bias could be as strong as ever this year as the low draw bias seems to be increasing if anything.

Looking at the Balmoral Handicap, 5 of the last 6 winners have been drawn 10 or below but Escobar did win from stall 21 in 2019. In fact that year the first two home were drawn in stalls 21 and 20. However the runners raced on the far side of the course that day too and Escobar finished right on the far rail so he very much overcame his high draw rather than won because of it.

In 2020 4 of the first 5 home were drawn in stalls 7 or lower, again showing a low draw bias, and we saw another strong bias in the 2021 Challenge Cup with just three runners exploring the far side of the track and two of those pulling clear of the field.

So in the bigger field races on Ascot’s straight track at this year’s Champions Day I’ll be trying to concentrate on lower drawn runners where possible.

Ascot Pace Bias

Ascot is often considered a course where hold up performers do well, especially the mile distance, and this is backed up with data.

The table above shows the record of horses held up early across all race distances at Ascot and the distance where hold up performers have the best place percentage is a mile.

When you look at the pace analyser data for Ascot’s mile in 16+ runner handicaps away from fast ground (the ground is very unlikely to ever be good to firm on Champions Day) it is clear that the closer you are to the pace, the more compromised your chance is.

A massive 20 of these 24 races have been won by horses that race either in mid division or are held up in the rear. Looking at the place percentages, front runners have just an 8.7% place strike rate compared to 10.79% for prominent, 17.86% for mid division and 25.51% for held up. Those are some hefty jumps between figures and go to show the best run styles for Ascot’s mile.

Balmoral Handicap Preview

The race that I’m most interested in from a betting point of view on Saturday is the Balmoral Handicap.

Let’s first have a look at the pace map for this contest.

There should be no shortage of pace with four potential front runners all drawn next to each other in the middle to high section of the draw. Shelir also made the running last time out so there could be quite the early burn up.

Given there is plenty of pace towards the higher end of the draw it’s very possible that some of this pace stays near side and doesn’t track over the to the far side. If that happens it would increase the chances of the more patiently ridden higher drawn runners staying near side rather than following the pace across to the far side.

If that does happen there is still some pace amongst the lower numbers. Marie's Diamond often makes the running as can Rhoscolyn.

It doesn't seem the the betting for this race has adjusted enough for the draw and that is hopefully something we can take advantage of. Given the pace data above and the pace setup for this race I’m still convinced that low numbers are the place to be with preference for those held up.

John Gosden seems to target this race, just like he seems to target the Cambridgeshire, but whilst he has a decent recent strike rate in that Newmarket race he is yet to win this contest. He’s had the beaten favourite in 2018 and 2019, although he certainly had a well handicapped horse in 2019, Lord North was runner up off 110 and subsequently rated 123.

This year he has the first two in the early betting, plus Magical Morning a little further down the list. The well bred Kingman half brother Sunray Major could be anything having won both starts this season, including a 7f handicap here last time out. A 6lb penalty for winning a 17 runner handicap comfortably last time looks fine but he’s drawn in stall 21. He’s going to have to either stick to his side of the course which will probably cost him his chance or track over, which can be done, but it means he’s covering more ground than anything else.

Gosden’s other runner in this is King Leonidas. He’s seemingly done much better with the draw in stall 8 and he looks well handicapped based on the form of his Newmarket novice win early last year. He was disappointing in the Jersey Stakes here after that though and subsequently missed 454 days of action before a promising return in a competitive Newbury handicap over 10f. He was poorly placed in that event and stayed on well but doesn’t look good value on the limited evidence that is his form, for all he has to be respected as a lowish drawn, lightly raced hold up performer.

There are quite a few I like here and one that I’m worried about the ground for is Nugget. This is a horse who I thought would absolutely love the Royal Hunt Cup but unfortunately he picked up an injury in the Thirsk Hunt Cup and missed the majority of the summer. He returned with a slightly workmanlike win at Haydock and he’s gone up another 3lbs for that. The form of his early season runs is very strong but he’s never raced on anything softer than good before and that seems to be more by design than coincidence. The ground will probably be just the good side of good to soft so it’s hardly going to be desperate but you have to be ruthless to narrow down these big fields so I’m going to reluctantly give him a miss, for all I still think he has a big handicap in him.

Aldaary is another I like. His draw actually put me off when he won last time out because most of the action on the previous day had developed on the other side of the course (hopefully I don't get the draw wrong again here!). He loved the softer ground that day and a 6lb penalty is unlikely to stop him. His worst run this season came on his only try at this distance but he’s shaped all season as though he wants it and he’s been extremely consistent at Ascot this year (form figures of 1551 in some super competitive handicaps). He’s also won 4 out of 5 on ground softer than good. His draw in stall 11 should be just about okay and thanks to the presence of the Gosden runners he’s actually a very fair price at around 9/1. At the very least he’s worth an each way saver with bookies paying six or even seven places. There is better value elsewhere though.

Escobar is interesting. He runs off a 1lb higher mark than he won this two years ago, beating the well handicapped Lord North comfortably. Despite plenty of placed efforts since that was actually the last time he won and he is finding it difficult to get his head in front these days. He was slightly disappointing last time here too so although better is expected this time around, especially with the step back up in trip likely to suit, he appeals as a place only bet if anything. He’s nicely drawn in stall 2.

I can’t completely rule out Rhoscolyn based on his effort in the Goodwood Golden Mile Handicap, which was run on similar ground to this. He was a neck ahead of Escobar that day and is 1lb better off here. He’s well drawn in stall 5 but he does seem to get on very well with Goodwood and is probably slightly better over an easy mile if anything. Given his draw he could easily run into the places but there are certainly others with better chances.

There was understandably a big plunge on Sir Busker on Thursday evening and it’s easy to understand why. He seemingly has a great draw in stall 3 and his record over Ascot’s straight mile is excellent. He won the Royal Hunt Cup consolation in 2020 off a 19lb lower mark but continued to improve and was 4th in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last season, just half a length behind Palace Pier. This season he was 3rd here at listed level on ground that would have been far too fast, still doing best of those held up and then it was the same story again in the Queen Anne Stakes. Given he’d improve for softer ground that was a serious effort. He’s maintained his form well since despite largely running at venues that haven’t suited his run style.

Now trying to translate Group form into handicaps can be expensive for punters but I can make a case for him still off a mark of 111 based on two handicap runs from last season (he hasn’t run in handicap company this year). He might have been 19lbs lower when winning the Royal Hunt Cup consolation but the ground would have been fast enough that day and the runner up has since rated 16lbs higher which definitely makes winning off this sort of mark within reach. He’s also proved he can run well off much higher marks. His last handicap run came at York, a course that wouldn’t suit him as well as Ascot, but he still managed to finish a neck 2nd off a 4lb lower mark.

The 3rd won a Group 3 on his next start, the 5th won on his next start at a mile and the 6th won next time out. A reproduction of this form would see Sir Busker go close. If he has improved since then or improves for Ascot’s straight mile and/or the softer ground he has a huge chance of winning. If you didn’t get the fancy prices on Thursday though you’ve probably missed the boat (still 25/1 with bet365 at the time of writing but that will probably be gone by the time this is published).

If the value call isn’t Sir Busker then it must be Accidental Agent, another Ascot straight course specialist. He’s getting on a bit now and his Queen Anne win is now more than three years ago but that effort proves just how effective he can be here. He also won the 2017 Challenge Cup over 7f here off a 3lb lower mark and was 4th in this race that year off a 3lb higher mark when not getting a clear run at things.

He's been in decent form this season since a wind op and won at Newmarket off a 3lbs lower mark. Now this race is more competitive than that but it was still hot form.

The 2nd, 4th and 5th have all won handicaps since suggesting a 3lbs higher mark really shouldn’t be beyond him. He was seemingly below par or outclassed in a Salisbury Group 3 next time but there was nothing wrong with his 2nd to subsequent Group 3 winner Al Suhail next time out. He outran his odds in the Group 3 Joel Stakes and then ran okay here in the Challenge Cup on heavy ground, doing 3rd best of those who raced in the centre and best of all out of those that were held up in the race. Fresh ‘won’ the race in the centre and he’s probably still a group horse in a handicap whilst Tomfre was 2nd in the centre and he was 2nd at Leicester this week on ground that was probably a bit fast for him. Stall 4 and a decent pace over a mile on this straight track should be the ideal setup for ACCIDENTAL AGENT and I think he offers huge each way value at prices as big as 50/1.

Next on my shortlist would be Sir Busker, Aldaary and Escobar in that order.

Breeders’ Cup 2021: Video Form Guide

In the table below are links to past performance videos for most the 2021 Breeders' Cup contenders.

The table is fully sortable, and contains a search function to locate a particular horse or race.

BC RaceContenderDatePast PerformanceTrackGradePositionVideo
Turf SprintChaos Theory01/01/2021Joe Hernandez StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way01/01/2021Janus StakesGULFSTREAM PARK3Video
ClassicMedina Spirit02/01/2021Sham StakesSANTA ANITA PARK32Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good02/01/2021Sham StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Turf SprintFirecrow04/01/2021Sam's Town StakesDELTA DOWNS5No Video Available
MileCasa Creed09/01/2021Tropical Turf StakesGULFSTREAM PARK32Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed09/01/2021Tropical Turf StakesGULFSTREAM PARK32Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia09/01/2021Las Cienegas StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfQueen Supreme (IRE)09/01/2021Cartier Paddock StakesKENILWORTH11Video
MileQueen Supreme (IRE)09/01/2021Cartier Paddock StakesKENILWORTH11Video
Turf SprintFast Boat16/01/2021Duncan F. Kenner StakesFAIR GROUNDS4Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso16/01/2021Wayward Lass StakesTAMPA BAY DOWNS3Video
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)20/01/2021TCK Jo-o HaiOI1No Video Available
Dirt MileSilver State23/01/2021Fifth Season StakesOAKLAWN PARK1Video
ClassicKnicks Go23/01/2021Pegasus World Cup Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK11Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall23/01/2021Pegasus World Cup Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK13Video
TurfCross Border23/01/2021Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK13Video
TurfChannel Cat23/01/2021W. L. McKnight StakesGULFSTREAM PARK35Video
Dirt MilePingxiang30/01/2021Gintei StakesTOKYO2No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfQueen Supreme (IRE)30/01/2021Cape Town MetKENILWORTH110Video
MileQueen Supreme (IRE)30/01/2021Cape Town MetKENILWORTH110Video
ClassicExpress Train30/01/2021San Pasqual StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie30/01/2021Robert B. Lewis StakesSANTA ANITA PARK33Video
ClassicMedina Spirit30/01/2021Robert B. Lewis StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Turf SprintCarotari31/01/2021Pulse Power Turf Sprint StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK2No Video Available
Turf SprintFast Boat31/01/2021Pulse Power Turf Sprint StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK1No Video Available
ClassicLetruska31/01/2021Houston Ladies Classic StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK31Video
DistaffLetruska31/01/2021Houston Ladies Classic StakesSAM HOUSTON RACE PARK31Video
DistaffBlue Stripe (ARG)05/02/2021Haras ArgentinosHIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO1No Video Available
Turf SprintBeer Can Man05/02/2021Baffle StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
MileHit the Road06/02/2021Thunder Road StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
SprintFlagstaff06/02/2021King Cotton StakesOAKLAWN PARK4Video
SprintMucho06/02/2021King Cotton StakesOAKLAWN PARK6Video
MileVin de Garde (JPN)07/02/2021Tokyo Shimbun HaiTOKYO34Video
DistaffClairiere13/02/2021Rachel Alexandra Stakes Presented by Fasig-TiptonFAIR GROUNDS21Video
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)14/02/2021Kyoto KinenHANSHIN21Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)14/02/2021Kyoto KinenHANSHIN21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)14/02/2021Sweet Life StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso20/02/2021Runhappy Barbara Fritchie StakesLAUREL PARK32Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia20/02/2021Buena Vista StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas20/02/2021Buena Vista StakesSANTA ANITA PARK24Video
ClassicKnicks Go20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE14Video
ClassicMax Player20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE111Video
ClassicMishriff (IRE)20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE11Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)20/02/2021Saudi CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE11Video
SprintMatera Sky20/02/2021Saudi Arabian Airlines Riyadh Dirt SprintKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE2Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)20/02/2021STC 1351 Turf Sprint CupKING ABDULAZIZ RACECOURSE1Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way24/02/2021Turf Dash StakesTAMPA BAY DOWNS1Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)25/02/2021Meydan Classic Sponsored By Agnc3MEYDAN RACECOURSE2Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess27/02/2021The Very One StakesGULFSTREAM PARK35No Video Available
Turf SprintGear Jockey27/02/2021Canadian Turf StakesGULFSTREAM PARK33Video
SprintJackie's Warrior27/02/2021Southwest StakesOAKLAWN PARK33Video
MileGot Stormy27/02/2021Honey Fox StakesGULFSTREAM PARK31Video
MileDuhail (IRE)02/03/2021P AnabaaCHANTILLY1No Video Available
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)04/03/2021Empress HaiKAWASAKI1No Video Available
DistaffBlue Stripe (ARG)06/03/2021Arturo R. y Arturo BullrichHIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO21No Video Available
Dirt MilePingxiang06/03/2021Harima StakesHANSHIN10No Video Available
ClassicExpress Train06/03/2021Santa Anita H.SANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall06/03/2021Santa Anita H.SANTA ANITA PARK14Video
ClassicMedina Spirit06/03/2021San Felipe StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good06/03/2021San Felipe StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)06/03/2021China Doll StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
MileCasa Creed06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK16Video
MileHit the Road06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
MileSmooth Like Strait06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed06/03/2021Frank E. Kilroe Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK16Video
ClassicLetruska13/03/2021Azeri StakesOAKLAWN PARK22Video
DistaffLetruska13/03/2021Azeri StakesOAKLAWN PARK22Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil13/03/2021Azeri StakesOAKLAWN PARK21Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By13/03/2021Beholder Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Turf SprintCarotari13/03/2021Silks Run StakesGULFSTREAM PARK1Video
SprintC Z Rocket13/03/2021Hot Springs StakesOAKLAWN PARK1Video
SprintFlagstaff13/03/2021Hot Springs StakesOAKLAWN PARK3Video
Turf SprintFirecrow13/03/2021Hot Springs StakesOAKLAWN PARK4Video
Dirt MileSilver State13/03/2021Essex H.OAKLAWN PARK1Video
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)15/03/2021Monterrico 335HIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO1No Video Available
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)19/03/2021Dundalkstadium.com RaceDUNDALK1Video
MileGrenadier Guards (JPN)20/03/2021Chunichi Sports Sho Falcon StakesCHUKYO32No Video Available
DistaffClairiere20/03/2021TwinspireStakescom Fair Grounds OaksFAIR GROUNDS22Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie20/03/2021TwinspireStakescom Louisiana DerbyFAIR GROUNDS21Video
TurfUnited20/03/2021San Luis Rey StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)21/03/2021Prix ExburySAINT CLOUD32Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)27/03/2021Unibet Cammidge TrophyDONCASTER2No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)27/03/2021Unibet Doncaster MileDONCASTER10No Video Available
MileVin de Garde (JPN)27/03/2021Dubai Turf Sponsored By DP WorldMEYDAN RACECOURSE12Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)27/03/2021Al Quoz Sprint Sponsored By Azizi DevelopmentsMEYDAN RACECOURSE19Video
ClassicMishriff (IRE)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE11Video
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE13Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)27/03/2021Longines Dubai Sheema ClassicMEYDAN RACECOURSE11Video
SprintMatera Sky27/03/2021Dubai Golden Shaheen Sponsored By Gulf NewsMEYDAN RACECOURSE112Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess27/03/2021Orchid StakesGULFSTREAM PARK31Video
TurfCross Border27/03/2021Pan American Stakes Presented by Rood and RiddleGULFSTREAM PARK23Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas27/03/2021Santa Ana StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfTenebrism28/03/2021Irish Stallion Farms Ebf MaidenNAAS1No Video Available
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence28/03/2021Santana Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
MileRestrainedvengence28/03/2021Santana Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
DistaffMalathaat03/04/2021Central Bank Ashland StakesKEENELAND11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)03/04/2021Irish Stallion Farms Ebf MaidenCORK2Video
ClassicMedina Spirit03/04/2021RUNHAPPY Santa Anita DerbySANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way03/04/2021Shakertown StakesKEENELAND23Video
Dirt MileMind Control03/04/2021Carter H.AQUEDUCT12Video
SprintMind Control03/04/2021Carter H.AQUEDUCT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia03/04/2021Royal Heroine StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag03/04/2021Royal Heroine StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)03/04/2021Providencia StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MileDuhail (IRE)03/04/2021Prix Edmond BlancSAINT CLOUD32Video
SprintFlagstaff03/04/2021Commonwealth StakesKEENELAND31Video
SprintMucho03/04/2021Commonwealth StakesKEENELAND35Video
SprintSpecial Reserve03/04/2021Commonwealth StakesKEENELAND32Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One03/04/2021Madison StakesKEENELAND12Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso03/04/2021Madison StakesKEENELAND12Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin03/04/2021Madison StakesKEENELAND17Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine04/04/2021Las Flores StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)09/04/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.LEICESTER1No Video Available
MileHit the Road09/04/2021Maker's Mark Mile StakesKEENELAND15Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)09/04/2021Maker's Mark Mile StakesKEENELAND11Video
SprintC Z Rocket10/04/2021Count Fleet Sprint H.OAKLAWN PARK31Video
Filly & Mare SprintEdgeway10/04/2021Carousel StakesOAKLAWN PARK1Video
DistaffHorologist10/04/2021Top Flight Invitational StakesAQUEDUCT1Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)11/04/2021Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Two Thousand Guineas Trial StakesLEOPARDSTOWN1No Video Available
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)11/04/2021Ballylinch Stud Red Rocks Two Thousand Guineas Trial StakesLEOPARDSTOWN12No Video Available
MileReal Appeal (GER)11/04/2021Leopardstown Members H.LEOPARDSTOWN1Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)14/04/2021Heritage StakesLEOPARDSTOWN1Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)14/04/2021Leopardstown Racecourse Fillies Maiden (Plus 10)LEOPARDSTOWN1Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)15/04/2021Bet365 Abernant StakesNEWMARKET33Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)15/04/2021Bet365 Craven StakesNEWMARKET31Video
DistaffBonny South16/04/2021Baird Doubledogdare StakesKEENELAND31Video
MileToro Strike17/04/2021EbfstallionStakescom Michael Foster Conditions Stakes (Class 3)THIRSK1No Video Available
TurfChannel Cat17/04/2021Elkhorn StakesKEENELAND22Video
ClassicLetruska17/04/2021Apple Blossom H.OAKLAWN PARK11Video
DistaffLetruska17/04/2021Apple Blossom H.OAKLAWN PARK11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)17/04/2021Irish Stallion Farms EBFCURRAGH2Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall17/04/2021Californian StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)17/04/2021Holden Plant Rentals Alleged StakesCURRAGH32Video
ClassicExpress Train17/04/2021Oaklawn H.OAKLAWN PARK23Video
Dirt MileSilver State17/04/2021Oaklawn H.OAKLAWN PARK21Video
TurfSealiway (FR)18/04/2021Prix de FontainebleauLONGCHAMP32No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)18/04/2021Prix de la GrotteLONGCHAMP36No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)18/04/2021Watership Down Stud Too Darn Hot Greenham StakesNEWBURY33Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)19/04/2021British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)ROYAL WINDSOR1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)20/04/2021Racing Again At Tipperary On May 6th RaceTIPPERARY3No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)20/04/2021Yeomanstown Stud El Kabeir Irish Ebf Fillies MaidenTIPPERARY2Video
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)23/04/2021Monterrico 508HIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess23/04/2021Bewitch StakesKEENELAND31Video
TurfYibir (GB)23/04/2021Bet365 Classic TrialSANDOWN PARK33Video
MilePogo (IRE)24/04/2021Elusive Bloodstock E.B.F. Stallions King Richard III StakesLEICESTER1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)24/04/2021Sky Sports Racing Virgin 535 Ebf Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)DONCASTER1No Video Available
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence24/04/2021San Francisco Mile StakesGOLDEN GATE FIELDS33Video
MileRestrainedvengence24/04/2021San Francisco Mile StakesGOLDEN GATE FIELDS33Video
MileCasa Creed24/04/2021Elusive Quality StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed24/04/2021Elusive Quality StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By24/04/2021Santa Margarita StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Dirt MilePingxiang25/04/2021Kamakura StakesTOKYO1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)25/04/2021FWD Queen Elizabeth II CupSHA TIN11Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)25/04/2021FWD Queen Elizabeth II CupSHA TIN11Video
Juvenile FilliesAverly Jane28/04/2021Kentucky Juvenile StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS1No Video Available
DistaffClairiere30/04/2021Longines Kentucky OaksCHURCHILL DOWNS14Video
DistaffMalathaat30/04/2021Longines Kentucky OaksCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
Turf SprintCarotari30/04/2021Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by SyscoCHURCHILL DOWNS25Video
Turf SprintFast Boat30/04/2021Twin Spires Turf Sprint Stakes presented by SyscoCHURCHILL DOWNS21Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil30/04/2021La Troienne Stakes presented by TwinspireStakescomCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
SprintJackie's Warrior01/05/2021Pat Day Mile Stakes presented by LG&E and KUCHURCHILL DOWNS21No Video Available
SprintLexitonian01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS12Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)01/05/2021QIPCO Two Thousand GuineasNEWMARKET12Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)01/05/2021QIPCO Two Thousand GuineasNEWMARKET11Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS14Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS13Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin01/05/2021Derby City Distaff Stakes presented by Kendall-Jackson WineryCHURCHILL DOWNS12Video
DistaffBlue Stripe (ARG)01/05/2021CriadoresHIPODROMO ARGENTINO DE PALERMO11Video
MileGot Stormy01/05/2021Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS25Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)01/05/2021Betfair Palace House StakesNEWMARKET33Video
MileIvar (BRZ)01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS16Video
MileSmooth Like Strait01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS13Video
TurfCross Border01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS17Video
TurfDomestic Spending (GB)01/05/2021Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
Dirt MileMind Control01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS17Video
SprintFlagstaff01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
SprintMind Control01/05/2021Churchill Downs Stakes presented by FordCHURCHILL DOWNS17Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie01/05/2021Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford ReserveCHURCHILL DOWNS13Video
ClassicMedina Spirit01/05/2021Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford ReserveCHURCHILL DOWNS11Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)01/05/2021Fort Marcy StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)01/05/2021Sheepshead Bay StakesBELMONT PARK24Video
MileDuhail (IRE)01/05/2021Prix du MuguetSAINT CLOUD21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)02/05/2021Prix Allez France LonginesLONGCHAMP36Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)02/05/2021QIPCO One Thousand GuineasNEWMARKET11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)03/05/2021GAIN First Flier StakesCURRAGH1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)03/05/2021Irish Ebf Stallion Auction Series MaidenCURRAGH1Video
TurfJapan (GB)06/05/2021Tote+ Pays You More At Tote.co.uk Ormonde StakesCHESTER31Video
TurfYibir (GB)06/05/2021Tote+ Biggest Dividends At Tote.co.uk Dee StakesCHESTER4Video
MileReal Appeal (GER)07/05/2021Mallow H.CORK3No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)07/05/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.ASCOT6Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)08/05/2021Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Blue Wind StakesNAAS31No Video Available
TurfChannel Cat08/05/2021Man o' War StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
TurfGufo08/05/2021Man o' War StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)08/05/2021Tote+ Placepots Pay More Novice Stakes (Class 3) (Gbb Race)ASCOT1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)08/05/2021Tote+ Placepots Pay More Novice Stakes (Class 3) (Gbb Race)ASCOT1Video
SprintFirenze Fire08/05/2021Runhappy StakesBELMONT PARK31Video
MileGrenadier Guards (JPN)09/05/2021NHK Mile CupTOKYO13Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)09/05/2021Irish One Thousand Guineas TrialLEOPARDSTOWN38Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/05/2021Tattersalls Musidora StakesYORK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)12/05/2021Tattersalls Musidora StakesYORK33Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/05/2021Tattersalls Musidora StakesYORK31Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)12/05/2021Duke Of York Clipper Logistics StakesYORK27Video
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)13/05/2021Constant Security ebfstallionStakescomYORK3No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)14/05/2021Langleys Solicitors British E.B.F. Marygate StakesYORK3No Video Available
DistaffHorologist14/05/2021Allaire DuPont Distaff Match Series StakesPIMLICO34Video
ClassicMax Player14/05/2021Pimlico Special Match Series StakesPIMLICO36Video
TurfArklow15/05/2021Louisville StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
TurfImperador (ARG)15/05/2021Louisville StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS36Video
SprintMucho15/05/2021Maryland Sprint Match Series StakesPIMLICO34Video
SprintSpecial Reserve15/05/2021Maryland Sprint Match Series StakesPIMLICO31Video
ClassicMedina Spirit15/05/2021Preakness StakesPIMLICO13Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)15/05/2021Al Shaqab Lockinge StakesNEWBURY18Video
MilePogo (IRE)15/05/2021Al Shaqab Lockinge StakesNEWBURY110Video
Turf SprintFirecrow15/05/2021Jim McKay Turf Sprint StakesPIMLICO1Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way15/05/2021Jim McKay Turf Sprint StakesPIMLICO2Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)16/05/2021Coolmore Stud Calyx RaceNAAS3No Video Available
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulainsLONGCHAMP16Video
TurfSealiway (FR)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulainsLONGCHAMP18Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulichesLONGCHAMP18Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)16/05/2021Emirates Poule d'Essai des PoulichesLONGCHAMP12Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)16/05/2021Goffs LackenNAAS31Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)16/05/2021Coolmore Stud Irish E.B.F. Fillies Sprint StakesNAAS32Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)21/05/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.HAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
TurfYibir (GB)21/05/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F. Cocked Hat StakesGOODWOOD2No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)22/05/2021Casumo Sandy Lane StakesHAYDOCK PARK210No Video Available
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)22/05/2021Heian StakesCHUKYO33No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)22/05/2021William Hill Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 3) (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (Gbb Race)YORK7No Video Available
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)22/05/2021GAIN Marble Hill StakesCURRAGH31Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)22/05/2021GAIN Marble Hill StakesCURRAGH35Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin22/05/2021Winning Colors StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By22/05/2021Santa Maria StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce22/05/2021Santa Maria StakesSANTA ANITA PARK24Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)22/05/2021Honeymoon StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)22/05/2021Tattersalls Irish Two Thousand GuineasCURRAGH12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)24/05/2021Ebc Group Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)WOLVERHAMPTON1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)28/05/2021Monterrico 672HIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO2No Video Available
MileToro Strike29/05/2021Betway John of Gaunt StakesHAYDOCK PARK36No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)29/05/2021Hilary Needler Trophy Fillies Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (Gbb Race)BEVERLEY2No Video Available
TurfUnited29/05/2021Charles Whittingham StakesSANTA ANITA PARK24Video
Turf SprintBombard29/05/2021Daytona StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)30/05/2021Torquator Tasso-Trophy - Grafenberger Derby TrialDUSSELDORF2Video
MileDuhail (IRE)30/05/2021Prix du Palais-RoyalLONGCHAMP32Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)30/05/2021Prix du Palais-RoyalLONGCHAMP36Video
Turf SprintChaos Theory31/05/2021Chamberlain Bridge StakesLONE STAR PARK5No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfHelens Well (IRE)31/05/2021Irish Ebf Auction Series MaidenROSCOMMON4No Video Available
SprintC Z Rocket31/05/2021Steve Sexton Mile StakesLONE STAR PARK32Video
ClassicExpress Train31/05/2021Hollywood Gold Cup StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence31/05/2021Shoemaker Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
MileRestrainedvengence31/05/2021Shoemaker Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
MileSmooth Like Strait31/05/2021Shoemaker Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia31/05/2021Gamely StakesSANTA ANITA PARK16Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas31/05/2021Gamely StakesSANTA ANITA PARK15Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)01/06/2021Irish Ebf Median Sires Series RaceTIPPERARY1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)04/06/2021Tweenhills Supporting British Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 3) (Gbb Race)BATH & SOMERSET COUNTY2No Video Available
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso04/06/2021Bed o' Roses StakesBELMONT PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)04/06/2021Cazoo Oaks StakesEPSOM11Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)04/06/2021Cazoo Oaks StakesEPSOM110Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)04/06/2021Cazoo Oaks StakesEPSOM11Video
TurfJapan (GB)04/06/2021Coral Coronation CupEPSOM13Video
SprintFirenze Fire04/06/2021True North StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
SprintFlagstaff04/06/2021True North StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)04/06/2021New York StakesBELMONT PARK23Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)04/06/2021New York StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)05/06/2021European Breeders Fund Ebf Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)DONCASTER4No Video Available
Turf SprintCarotari05/06/2021Mighty Beau Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS3No Video Available
ClassicHot Rod Charlie05/06/2021Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA BetsBELMONT PARK12Video
Filly & Mare SprintVenetian Harbor05/06/2021Monrovia StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
ClassicLetruska05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
DistaffBonny South05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
DistaffLetruska05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil05/06/2021Ogden Phipps StakesBELMONT PARK13Video
SprintJackie's Warrior05/06/2021Woody Stephens Stakes Presented by Nassau County Industrial Development AgencyBELMONT PARK12Video
MileCasa Creed05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
MileGot Stormy05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK15Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
Turf SprintFast Boat05/06/2021Jackpocket Jaipur StakesBELMONT PARK16Video
ClassicKnicks Go05/06/2021Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H.BELMONT PARK14Video
Dirt MileSilver State05/06/2021Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H.BELMONT PARK11Video
SprintLexitonian05/06/2021Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan H.BELMONT PARK16Video
TurfChannel Cat05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK17Video
TurfDomestic Spending (GB)05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
TurfGufo05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK13Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK16Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)05/06/2021Resorts World Casino Manhattan StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
TurfSealiway (FR)06/06/2021Qatar Prix du Jockey ClubCHANTILLY12Video
Filly & Mare SprintBella Sofia06/06/2021Jersey Girl StakesBELMONT PARK2Video
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)09/06/2021Watch Racing TV NowHAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
MileReal Appeal (GER)10/06/2021Ballycorus StakesLEOPARDSTOWN31No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)11/06/2021Sir Eric Parker Memorial Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 4) (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Gbb Race)GOODWOOD2No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)11/06/2021Sky Bet Ganton StakesYORK1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)13/06/2021La CoupeLONGCHAMP33Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag13/06/2021Possibly Perfect StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)15/06/2021St. James's Palace StakesASCOT11Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)15/06/2021Queen Anne StakesASCOT12Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)15/06/2021Queen Anne StakesASCOT18Video
MilePogo (IRE)15/06/2021Queen Anne StakesASCOT15Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT213Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Gleaming (IRE)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)16/06/2021Queen Mary StakesASCOT25Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)16/06/2021Prince Of Wales's StakesASCOT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)16/06/2021Prince Of Wales's StakesASCOT11Video
TurfLove (IRE)16/06/2021Prince Of Wales's StakesASCOT11Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)16/06/2021Windsor Castle StakesASCOT5Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)16/06/2021Windsor Castle StakesASCOT8Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)17/06/2021Norfolk StakesASCOT22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)17/06/2021Norfolk StakesASCOT22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)17/06/2021Norfolk StakesASCOT27Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)18/06/2021Commonwealth CupASCOT111Video
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)18/06/2021Commonwealth CupASCOT17Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)18/06/2021Coronation StakesASCOT13Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)18/06/2021Albany StakesASCOT32Video
TurfAstronaut19/06/2021San Juan Capistrano StakesSANTA ANITA PARK32Video
TurfJapan (GB)19/06/2021Hardwicke StakesASCOT26Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One19/06/2021Roxelana Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS1Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin19/06/2021Roxelana Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS2Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way19/06/2021Get Serious StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)20/06/2021Prix de Diane LonginesCHANTILLY15Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence20/06/2021American StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MileRestrainedvengence20/06/2021American StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)20/06/2021Poker StakesBELMONT PARK32Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)22/06/2021Hot To Trot Racing E.B.F.NEWBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)25/06/2021Rich Energy British Ebf Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)NEWMARKET1No Video Available
ClassicArt Collector25/06/2021Kelly's Landing Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS6Video
SprintMucho25/06/2021Kelly's Landing Overnight StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS2Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)25/06/2021Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Fillies MaidenCURRAGH3Video
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)26/06/2021Close Brothers Criterion StakesNEWMARKET36No Video Available
DistaffHorologist26/06/2021Lady Jacqueline StakesTHISTLEDOWN5No Video Available
Dirt MilePingxiang26/06/2021Tempozan StakesHANSHIN1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH22Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)26/06/2021GAIN Railway StakesCURRAGH25Video
Filly & Mare TurfReina de Mollendo (ARG)26/06/2021Clasico PamplonaHIPODROMO DE MONTERRICO11Video
MileIn Love (BRZ)26/06/2021Wise Dan StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS28Video
TurfIn Love (BRZ)26/06/2021Wise Dan StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS28Video
DistaffClairiere26/06/2021Mother Goose StakesBELMONT PARK23Video
ClassicLetruska26/06/2021Fleur de Lis StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS21Video
DistaffLetruska26/06/2021Fleur de Lis StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS21Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)27/06/2021Al Wasmiyah Stud Pretty Polly StakesCURRAGH14Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)27/06/2021Al Wasmiyah Stud Pretty Polly StakesCURRAGH11Video
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)30/06/2021Teio ShoOI8No Video Available
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)01/07/2021British Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)HAYDOCK PARK5No Video Available
MileDuhail (IRE)01/07/2021Prix de la Porte MaillotLONGCHAMP32No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise En Scene (GB)02/07/2021Irish Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)HAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
ClassicKnicks Go02/07/2021Prairie Meadows Cornhusker H.PRAIRIE MEADOWS31Video
SprintSpecial Reserve03/07/2021Iowa Sprint StakesPRAIRIE MEADOWS1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)03/07/2021Naas Nursery Of Champions RaceNAAS2No Video Available
ClassicMishriff (IRE)03/07/2021Coral Eclipse StakesSANDOWN PARK13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)03/07/2021Coral Eclipse StakesSANDOWN PARK13Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce03/07/2021Princess Rooney Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK21Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso03/07/2021Princess Rooney Invitational StakesGULFSTREAM PARK22Video
ClassicHappy Saver03/07/2021Suburban StakesBELMONT PARK23Video
ClassicMax Player03/07/2021Suburban StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
Dirt MileMind Control04/07/2021John A. Nerud StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
SprintFirenze Fire04/07/2021John A. Nerud StakesBELMONT PARK22Video
SprintMind Control04/07/2021John A. Nerud StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)04/07/2021IDEE Deutsches DerbyHAMBURG11Video
TurfGufo05/07/2021Grand Couturier StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
Filly & Mare SprintEdgeway05/07/2021Great Lady M StakesLOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE24Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine05/07/2021Great Lady M StakesLOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE21Video
MilePrincess Grace06/07/2021Dr. James Penny Memorial StakesPARX RACING31Video
TurfYibir (GB)08/07/2021Bahrain TrophyNEWMARKET31Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)09/07/2021Tattersalls Falmouth StakesNEWMARKET12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)09/07/2021Duchess of Cambridge Stakes Sponsored By Bet365NEWMARKET23Video
DistaffBonny South10/07/2021Delaware H.DELAWARE PARK25No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)10/07/2021Betfred Summer Mile StakesASCOT28Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)10/07/2021Darley July CupNEWMARKET111Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)11/07/2021Prix de La Calonne - F.E.E.DEAUVILLE1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)14/07/2021Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Cairn Rouge StakesKILLARNEY9No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)14/07/2021Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)LINGFIELD1No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)15/07/2021British Ebf Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)EPSOM1No Video Available
TurfJapan (GB)15/07/2021Green Room Meld StakesLEOPARDSTOWN31Video
Turf SprintGolden Pal15/07/2021Quick Call StakesSARATOGA31Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)16/07/2021Bet365 E.B.F.NEWBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)17/07/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F.HAYDOCK PARK1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)17/07/2021Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2) (Gbb Race)NEWBURY1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)17/07/2021Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2) (Gbb Race)NEWBURY4Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)17/07/2021Juddmonte Irish OaksCURRAGH11Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)17/07/2021Juddmonte Irish OaksCURRAGH11Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie17/07/2021TVG.com Haskell StakesMONMOUTH PARK11Video
ClassicExpress Train17/07/2021San Diego H.DEL MAR21Video
ClassicTripoli17/07/2021San Diego H.DEL MAR22Video
Turf SprintThe Critical Way17/07/2021Wolf Hill StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
TurfArklow17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK16Video
TurfGlynn County17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK15Video
TurfImperador (ARG)17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK12Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK19Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)17/07/2021United Nations StakesMONMOUTH PARK11Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)18/07/2021Prix ChloeCHANTILLY32No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)18/07/2021Kilboy Estate StakesCURRAGH21Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)18/07/2021Romanised Minstrel StakesCURRAGH21Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)21/07/2021Grand Prix de VichyVICHY31No Video Available
Juvenile TurfCoinage21/07/2021Rick Violette StakesSARATOGA3Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)22/07/2021British Stallion Studs E.B.F. Star StakesSANDOWN PARK2No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)24/07/2021Irish Ebf Auction Series Fillies MaidenGOWRAN PARK1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)24/07/2021Mansionbet Proud To Support British Racing British Ebf Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)NEWMARKET1No Video Available
ClassicMishriff (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT13Video
TurfLove (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)24/07/2021King George VI and Queen Elizabeth QIPCO StakesASCOT12Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)24/07/2021San Clemente StakesDEL MAR22Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)24/07/2021Princess Margaret Keeneland StakesASCOT36Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)24/07/2021Princess Margaret Keeneland StakesASCOT31Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR26Video
MileRestrainedvengence24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR26Video
MileSmooth Like Strait24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR22Video
TurfUnited24/07/2021Eddie Read StakesDEL MAR21Video
DistaffClairiere24/07/2021Coaching Club American OaksSARATOGA13Video
DistaffMalathaat24/07/2021Coaching Club American OaksSARATOGA12Video
DistaffHorologist25/07/2021Shuvee StakesSARATOGA32Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)27/07/2021Unibet Lennox StakesGOODWOOD24Video
MileToro Strike27/07/2021Unibet Lennox StakesGOODWOOD26Video
MileDuhail (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD14Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD17Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD15Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD12Video
MileSpace Traveller (GB)28/07/2021Qatar Sussex StakesGOODWOOD16Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)28/07/2021Markel Molecomb StakesGOODWOOD31Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One28/07/2021Honorable Miss H.SARATOGA21Video
TurfYibir (GB)29/07/2021John Pearce Racing Gordon StakesGOODWOOD36Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)29/07/2021Unibet Richmond StakesGOODWOOD23Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)29/07/2021Qatar Nassau StakesGOODWOOD15Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)31/07/2021British Stallion Studs Ebf Soba Conditions Stakes (Class 3)HAMILTON PARK1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintOne Timer31/07/2021Victoria StakesWOODBINE1No Video Available
SprintMucho31/07/2021Challedon StakesPIMLICO1Video
SprintC Z Rocket31/07/2021Bing Crosby StakesDEL MAR13Video
SprintDr. Schivel31/07/2021Bing Crosby StakesDEL MAR11Video
TurfChannel Cat31/07/2021Bowling Green StakesSARATOGA24Video
TurfCross Border31/07/2021Bowling Green StakesSARATOGA21Video
SprintFirenze Fire31/07/2021Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.SARATOGA15Video
SprintLexitonian31/07/2021Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.SARATOGA11Video
SprintSpecial Reserve31/07/2021Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.SARATOGA12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)01/08/2021Chester Fc Welcomes Fans Back Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)CHESTER2No Video Available
DistaffAs Time Goes By01/08/2021Clement L. Hirsch StakesDEL MAR14Video
DistaffShedaresthedevil01/08/2021Clement L. Hirsch StakesDEL MAR11Video
Filly & Mare SprintVenetian Harbor01/08/2021Clement L. Hirsch StakesDEL MAR12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfSail By01/08/2021Colleen StakesMONMOUTH PARK2Video
SprintJackie's Warrior01/08/2021Amsterdam StakesSARATOGA21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)02/08/2021Dave Dykes 70th Ebf Fillies Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 5) (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Gbb Race)KEMPTON PARK2No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)03/08/2021Prix RothschildDEAUVILLE14Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)03/08/2021Prix RothschildDEAUVILLE11Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)03/08/2021Prix RothschildDEAUVILLE13Video
TurfTarnawa (IRE)05/08/2021Grant Thornton Ballyroan StakesLEOPARDSTOWN31Video
Turf SprintCarotari06/08/2021Troy Stakes presented by Horse Racing IrelandSARATOGA32Video
Turf SprintFast Boat06/08/2021Troy Stakes presented by Horse Racing IrelandSARATOGA31Video
Turf SprintGear Jockey06/08/2021Troy Stakes presented by Horse Racing IrelandSARATOGA33Video
ClassicArt Collector06/08/2021Alydar StakesSARATOGA1Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia07/08/2021Yellow Ribbon H.DEL MAR26Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag07/08/2021Yellow Ribbon H.DEL MAR22Video
MilePrincess Grace07/08/2021Yellow Ribbon H.DEL MAR21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Gleaming (IRE)07/08/2021Prix de la Vallee d'AugeDEAUVILLE1Video
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)07/08/2021Glens Falls StakesSARATOGA22Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess07/08/2021Glens Falls StakesSARATOGA21Video
Filly & Mare SprintBella Sofia07/08/2021Longines Test StakesSARATOGA11Video
ClassicKnicks Go07/08/2021Whitney StakesSARATOGA11Video
Dirt MileSilver State07/08/2021Whitney StakesSARATOGA13Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHer World (IRE)07/08/2021Tyro StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)07/08/2021100% RacingTV Profits Back To Racing Sweet Solera StakesNEWMARKET32Video
JuvenilePappacap07/08/2021Best Pal StakesDEL MAR21Video
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)08/08/2021Longines Irish Champions Weekend Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)LEICESTER2No Video Available
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)08/08/2021LARC Prix Maurice de GheestDEAUVILLE17Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)08/08/2021Rathasker Stud Phoenix Sprint StakesCURRAGH33Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH14Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH13Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH13Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)08/08/2021Keeneland Phoenix StakesCURRAGH16Video
SprintMatera Sky09/08/2021Cluster CupMORIOKA5No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)09/08/2021Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)WOLVERHAMPTON1No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)11/08/2021Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Hurry Harriet StakesGOWRAN PARK6No Video Available
DistaffMarche Lorraine (JPN)12/08/2021Breeders' Gold CupMOMBETSU1No Video Available
MileReal Appeal (GER)12/08/2021Invesco Pension Consultants Desmond StakesLEOPARDSTOWN33No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)13/08/2021BetVictor St. Hugh's StakesNEWBURY9Video
JuvenileAmerican Sanctuary14/08/2021Prairie Gold Juvenile StakesPRAIRIE MEADOWS2No Video Available
MileSpace Traveller (GB)14/08/2021Mr. D. StakesARLINGTON14Video
TurfDomestic Spending (GB)14/08/2021Mr. D. StakesARLINGTON12Video
TurfGlynn County14/08/2021Mr. D. StakesARLINGTON13Video
MileCasa Creed14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA13Video
MileGot Stormy14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA11Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA16Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed14/08/2021Fourstardave H.SARATOGA13Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)14/08/2021Denford StakesNEWBURY2Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)15/08/2021Prix du Haras de Fresnay Le Buffard Jacques Le MaroisDEAUVILLE13Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)15/08/2021Prix du Haras de Fresnay Le Buffard Jacques Le MaroisDEAUVILLE12Video
ClassicMishriff (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK11Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK13Video
TurfLove (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK13Video
TurfMishriff (IRE)18/08/2021Juddmonte International StakesYORK11Video
TurfYibir (GB)18/08/2021Sky Bet Great Voltigeur StakesYORK21Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfKneesnhips18/08/2021Bolton Landing StakesSARATOGA3Video
Juvenile Turf SprintDerrynane18/08/2021Bolton Landing StakesSARATOGA5Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)19/08/2021Darley Yorkshire OaksYORK11Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)19/08/2021Darley Yorkshire OaksYORK11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)19/08/2021Sky Bet Lowther StakesYORK26Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)19/08/2021Sky Bet Lowther StakesYORK21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)19/08/2021Sky Bet Lowther StakesYORK24Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)20/08/2021Highclere Castle Gin British Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 4) (For Horses In Bands A, B, C And D) (Gbb Race)SALISBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)20/08/2021Longines Irish Champions Weekend E.B.F. Stonehenge StakesSALISBURY1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)20/08/2021Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack StakesYORK23Video
Filly & Mare SprintEdgeway20/08/2021Rancho Bernardo H.DEL MAR31Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)20/08/2021Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe StakesYORK12Video
Turf SprintGolden Pal20/08/2021Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe StakesYORK17Video
Juvenile FilliesAverly Jane20/08/2021Skidmore StakesSARATOGA1Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)21/08/2021Prix de la NonetteDEAUVILLE23No Video Available
Juvenile TurfDegree of Risk21/08/2021Soaring Free StakesWOODBINE2No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)21/08/2021Alpha Centauri Debutante StakesCURRAGH25Video
DistaffClairiere21/08/2021Alabama StakesSARATOGA12Video
DistaffMalathaat21/08/2021Alabama StakesSARATOGA11Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing Global (IRE)21/08/2021Del Mar OaksDEL MAR11Video
TurfArklow21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR27Video
TurfAstronaut21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR21Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR22Video
TurfUnited21/08/2021Del Mar H. Presented by The Japan Racing AssociationDEL MAR24Video
ClassicExpress Train21/08/2021TVG Pacific Classic StakesDEL MAR16Video
ClassicTripoli21/08/2021TVG Pacific Classic StakesDEL MAR11Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall21/08/2021TVG Pacific Classic StakesDEL MAR15Video
DistaffPrivate Mission21/08/2021Torrey Pines StakesDEL MAR31Video
MileHit the Road21/08/2021Del Mar Mile StakesDEL MAR23Video
MileMo Forza21/08/2021Del Mar Mile StakesDEL MAR21Video
MileSmooth Like Strait21/08/2021Del Mar Mile StakesDEL MAR22Video
MilePogo (IRE)21/08/2021Sky Bet City of York StakesYORK26Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)21/08/2021Sky Bet City of York StakesYORK21Video
SprintCollusion Illusion22/08/2021Green Flash H.DEL MAR37Video
Turf SprintCollusion Illusion22/08/2021Green Flash H.DEL MAR37Video
Turf SprintLieutenant Dan22/08/2021Green Flash H.DEL MAR31Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE12Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE11Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE18Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Jean RomanetDEAUVILLE13Video
Filly & Mare TurfLoves Only You (JPN)22/08/2021Sapporo KinenSAPPORO22Video
TurfLoves Only You (JPN)22/08/2021Sapporo KinenSAPPORO22Video
DistaffHorologist22/08/2021Summer Colony StakesSARATOGA1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)22/08/2021Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley SeriesDEAUVILLE14Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley SeriesDEAUVILLE15Video
Juvenile Turf SprintQuick Suzy (IRE)22/08/2021Darley Prix Morny - Finale des Darley SeriesDEAUVILLE19Video
SprintMucho23/08/2021Chesapeake StakesCOLONIAL DOWNS2No Video Available
Turf SprintHollywood Talent23/08/2021Marshall Jenney H.PARX RACING4No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)24/08/2021Sorvio Insurance Brokers British Ebf Novice Stakes (Class 4)SALISBURY1No Video Available
ClassicArt Collector27/08/2021Charles Town Classic StakesHOLLYWOOD CASINO AT CHARLES TOWN RACES21Video
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence27/08/2021Charles Town Classic StakesHOLLYWOOD CASINO AT CHARLES TOWN RACES24Video
MileRestrainedvengence27/08/2021Charles Town Classic StakesHOLLYWOOD CASINO AT CHARLES TOWN RACES24Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)27/08/2021Snow Fairy StakesCURRAGH31Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)28/08/2021Sytner BMW Sunningdale August StakesROYAL WINDSOR1No Video Available
TurfCross Border28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA13Video
TurfGufo28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA11Video
TurfJapan (GB)28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA12Video
TurfTribhuvan (FR)28/08/2021Resorts World Casino Sword Dancer StakesSARATOGA15Video
MilePogo (IRE)28/08/2021Tote Celebration Mile StakesGOODWOOD23Video
ClassicLetruska28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA11Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA16Video
DistaffBonny South28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA12Video
DistaffLetruska28/08/2021Personal Ensign Stakes Presented by Lia InfinitiSARATOGA11Video
Dirt MileMind Control28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA14Video
SprintFirenze Fire28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA12Video
SprintLexitonian28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA18Video
SprintMind Control28/08/2021Forego StakesSARATOGA14Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA13Video
Filly & Mare SprintEstilo Talentoso28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA15Video
Filly & Mare SprintGamine28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA11Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin28/08/2021Ketel One Ballerina H.SARATOGA14Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good28/08/2021H. Allen Jerkens Memorial StakesSARATOGA12Video
SprintJackie's Warrior28/08/2021H. Allen Jerkens Memorial StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)28/08/2021Tote Prestige StakesGOODWOOD34Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise En Scene (GB)28/08/2021Tote Prestige StakesGOODWOOD31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)28/08/2021Tote Prestige StakesGOODWOOD33Video
Dirt MileGinobili28/08/2021Pat O'Brien StakesDEL MAR21Video
SprintC Z Rocket28/08/2021Pat O'Brien StakesDEL MAR22Video
SprintFlagstaff28/08/2021Pat O'Brien StakesDEL MAR23Video
MileToro Strike29/08/2021Weatherbys Hamilton Supreme StakesGOODWOOD31No Video Available
ClassicMedina Spirit29/08/2021Shared Belief StakesDEL MAR1Video
MileDuhail (IRE)29/08/2021Barriere Prix de MeautryDEAUVILLE32Video
Juvenile Turf SprintBig Boss Ben31/08/2021Exacta Systems Rosie's StakesCOLONIAL DOWNS6No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Critical Way31/08/2021Parx Dash StakesPARX RACING31Video
Juvenile TurfCoinage01/09/2021With Anticipation StakesSARATOGA31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCrazyland (GB)02/09/2021IRE Incentive Scheme Dick Poole StakesSALISBURY33No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfPearl Glory (IRE)02/09/2021IRE Incentive Scheme Dick Poole StakesSALISBURY32No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)02/09/2021Prix d'ArenbergLONGCHAMP36No Video Available
Juvenile FilliesMiss Interpret02/09/2021P. G. Johnson StakesSARATOGA1Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfSail By02/09/2021P. G. Johnson StakesSARATOGA3Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)03/09/2021British Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 4) (Gbb Race)HAYDOCK PARK2No Video Available
Filly & Mare TurfMy Sister Nat (FR)04/09/2021Flower Bowl StakesSARATOGA13Video
Filly & Mare TurfWar Like Goddess04/09/2021Flower Bowl StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)04/09/2021Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Sirenia StakesKEMPTON PARK33Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag04/09/2021John C. Mabee StakesDEL MAR22Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas04/09/2021John C. Mabee StakesDEL MAR21Video
Turf SprintEmaraaty Ana (GB)04/09/2021Betfair Sprint CupHAYDOCK PARK11Video
ClassicHappy Saver04/09/2021Jockey Club Gold Cup StakesSARATOGA12Video
ClassicMax Player04/09/2021Jockey Club Gold Cup StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile FilliesEcho Zulu05/09/2021Spinaway StakesSARATOGA11Video
Juvenile FilliesTarabi05/09/2021Spinaway StakesSARATOGA12Video
MileLope Y Fernandez (IRE)05/09/2021Prix du Moulin de LongchampLONGCHAMP16Video
MileOrder of Australia (IRE)05/09/2021Prix du Moulin de LongchampLONGCHAMP12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHelens Well (IRE)05/09/2021Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf StakesDEL MAR2Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfLiam's Dove05/09/2021Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf StakesDEL MAR1Video
JuvenileAmerican Sanctuary05/09/2021Sapling StakesMONMOUTH PARK2Video
Juvenile FilliesGrace Adler05/09/2021TVG Del Mar Debutante StakesDEL MAR11Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)05/09/2021Wettstar Grosser Preis von BadenBADEN BADEN12Video
Juvenile TurfKiss the Sky06/09/2021Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS2Video
Juvenile TurfTiz the Bomb06/09/2021Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1Video
JuvenilePappacap06/09/2021Runhappy Del Mar FuturityDEL MAR14Video
JuvenilePinehurst06/09/2021Runhappy Del Mar FuturityDEL MAR11Video
JuvenileKevin's Folly06/09/2021Hopeful StakesSARATOGA13Video
Juvenile TurfMackinnon06/09/2021Del Mar Juvenile Turf StakesDEL MAR1Video
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)08/09/2021Take The Reins Nursery Handicap Stakes (Class 2)DONCASTER1No Video Available
MileIn Love (BRZ)08/09/2021TVG StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
TurfIn Love (BRZ)08/09/2021TVG StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfRed Danger09/09/2021Global Tote Juvenile Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintRed Danger09/09/2021Global Tote Juvenile Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1No Video Available
Juvenile Fillies TurfProsperous Voyage (IRE)09/09/2021Cazoo May Hill StakesDONCASTER22Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)10/09/2021Wainwright Flying Childers StakesDONCASTER22Video
MileReal Appeal (GER)11/09/2021Clipper Logistics Boomerang Mile Solonaway StakesLEOPARDSTOWN21No Video Available
Turf SprintThe Lir Jet (IRE)11/09/2021Franklin-Simpson StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS21Video
TurfArklow11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS22Video
TurfChannel Cat11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS26Video
TurfGlynn County11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS23Video
TurfImperador (ARG)11/09/2021Calumet Turf Cup StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS21Video
Juvenile TurfBayside Boy (IRE)11/09/2021Champagne StakesDONCASTER21Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)11/09/2021Champagne StakesDONCASTER23Video
MilePrincess Grace11/09/2021Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS31Video
MilePoetic Flare (IRE)11/09/2021Irish Champion StakesLEOPARDSTOWN13Video
TurfTarnawa (IRE)11/09/2021Irish Champion StakesLEOPARDSTOWN12Video
Filly & Mare TurfAcanella (GB)11/09/2021Coolmore America Justify Matron StakesLEOPARDSTOWN17Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)11/09/2021Coolmore America Justify Matron StakesLEOPARDSTOWN13Video
MileCasa Creed11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS35Video
MileGot Stormy11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS36Video
Turf SprintBombard11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS33Video
Turf SprintCasa Creed11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS35Video
Turf SprintFast Boat11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS34Video
Turf SprintGear Jockey11/09/2021FanDuel Turf Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS31Video
Filly & Mare SprintVenetian Harbor11/09/2021Mint Ladies Sprint StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS310Video
MileGrenadier Guards (JPN)12/09/2021Keisei Hai Autumn H.NAKAYAMA33No Video Available
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)12/09/2021Qatar Prix du PinLONGCHAMP33Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfKoala Princess12/09/2021Ainsworth StakesKENTUCKY DOWNS1Video
Filly & Mare TurfInsinuendo (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH24Video
Filly & Mare TurfLove (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH22Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH23Video
TurfLove (IRE)12/09/2021Moyglare Jewels Blandford StakesCURRAGH22Video
Turf SprintA Case of You (IRE)12/09/2021Derrinstown Stud Flying Five StakesCURRAGH12Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/09/2021Qatar Prix VermeilleLONGCHAMP12Video
Filly & Mare TurfTeona (IRE)12/09/2021Qatar Prix VermeilleLONGCHAMP11Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)12/09/2021Qatar Prix VermeilleLONGCHAMP12Video
Juvenile Turf SprintVertiginous (IRE)17/09/2021British E.B.F. Stallions Harry Rosebery StakesAYR1No Video Available
Dirt MileRestrainedvengence18/09/2021Downs At Albuquerque H.ALBUQUERQUE1No Video Available
MileRestrainedvengence18/09/2021Downs At Albuquerque H.ALBUQUERQUE1No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGubbass (IRE)18/09/2021Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef StakesNEWBURY27No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintHierarchy (IRE)18/09/2021Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef StakesNEWBURY22No Video Available
DistaffShedaresthedevil18/09/2021Locust Grove StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
TurfYibir (GB)18/09/2021Jockey Club Derby Invitational StakesBELMONT PARK1Video
JuvenileTough to Tame18/09/2021Iroquois StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS32Video
Filly & Mare SprintBell's the One18/09/2021Open Mind StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS2Video
Filly & Mare SprintSconsin18/09/2021Open Mind StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS1Video
MileRaging Bull (FR)18/09/2021Ricoh Woodbine Mile StakesWOODBINE13Video
MileSpace Traveller (GB)18/09/2021Ricoh Woodbine Mile StakesWOODBINE12Video
Juvenile FilliesHidden Connection18/09/2021Pocahontas StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfKneesnhips18/09/2021Pocahontas StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS38Video
Juvenile Turf SprintDerrynane19/09/2021Woodbine Cares StakesWOODBINE1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfAlbahr (GB)19/09/2021Summer StakesWOODBINE11Video
Juvenile TurfDegree of Risk19/09/2021Summer StakesWOODBINE13Video
Juvenile TurfGrafton Street19/09/2021Summer StakesWOODBINE12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfPizza Bianca19/09/2021Natalma StakesWOODBINE12Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfWild Beauty (GB)19/09/2021Natalma StakesWOODBINE11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfMise Le Meas (IRE)20/09/2021Ballyhane Stud Blenheim StakesFAIRYHOUSE3No Video Available
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)21/09/2021National Horseracing College Ebf Fillies Novice Stakes (Class 5) (Gbb Race)BEVERLEY1No Video Available
Juvenile TurfModern Games (IRE)23/09/2021Tattersalls Somerville StakesNEWMARKET31Video
Filly & Mare TurfQueen Supreme (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET27Video
MileMaster of The Seas (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET23Video
MilePogo (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET22Video
MileQueen Supreme (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet "You're On" Joel StakesNEWMARKET27Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHello You (IRE)24/09/2021Unibet Rockfel StakesNEWMARKET21Video
Dirt MileLife Is Good25/09/2021Kelso H.BELMONT PARK21Video
Turf SprintBeer Can Man25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING32Video
Turf SprintCarotari25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING36Video
Turf SprintFirecrow25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING34Video
Turf SprintHollywood Talent25/09/2021Turf Monster StakesPARX RACING31Video
ClassicHot Rod Charlie25/09/2021Pennsylvania DerbyPARX RACING11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfTenebrism25/09/2021Juddmonte Cheveley Park StakesNEWMARKET11Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfZain Claudette (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Cheveley Park StakesNEWMARKET110Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGuilded (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Cheveley Park StakesNEWMARKET14Video
Dirt MileMind Control25/09/2021Parx Dirt Mile StakesPARX RACING1Video
Dirt MileSilver State25/09/2021Parx Dirt Mile StakesPARX RACING2Video
SprintMind Control25/09/2021Parx Dirt Mile StakesPARX RACING1Video
SprintJackie's Warrior25/09/2021Gallant Bob StakesPARX RACING21Video
DistaffClairiere25/09/2021Cotillion StakesPARX RACING11Video
Juvenile TurfCastle Star (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET12Video
Juvenile TurfGo Bears Go (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET14Video
Juvenile Turf SprintArmor (GB)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET13Video
Juvenile Turf SprintGo Bears Go (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET14Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTwilight Jet (IRE)25/09/2021Juddmonte Middle Park StakesNEWMARKET15Video
Filly & Mare SprintBella Sofia26/09/2021Gallant Bloom H.BELMONT PARK21Video
TurfSisfahan (FR)26/09/2021Preis von EuropaKOLN13Video
Juvenile TurfCoinage26/09/2021Nownownow StakesMONMOUTH PARK3Video
Juvenile TurfDakota Gold26/09/2021Nownownow StakesMONMOUTH PARK1Video
Juvenile FilliesAin't Easy01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Juvenile FilliesDesert Dawn01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
Juvenile FilliesElectric Ride01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Juvenile FilliesGrace Adler01/10/2021Chandelier StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
Filly & Mare TurfCharmaine's Mia01/10/2021Eddie D StakesSANTA ANITA PARK28Video
Turf SprintChaos Theory01/10/2021Eddie D StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
Turf SprintLieutenant Dan01/10/2021Eddie D StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
JuvenileCorniche01/10/2021American Pharoah StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
JuvenileOviatt Class01/10/2021American Pharoah StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
JuvenilePappacap01/10/2021American Pharoah StakesSANTA ANITA PARK12Video
Juvenile Turf SprintOne Timer01/10/2021Speakeasy StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
Juvenile Turf SprintTime to Party01/10/2021Speakeasy StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
TurfFriar's Road02/10/2021John Henry Turf Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
TurfMaster Piece (CHI)02/10/2021John Henry Turf Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
TurfUnited02/10/2021John Henry Turf Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Juvenile TurfReady to Purrform02/10/2021Laurel FuturityLAUREL PARK1Video
JuvenileCommandperformance02/10/2021Champagne StakesBELMONT PARK12Video
JuvenileJack Christopher02/10/2021Champagne StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
MileMother Earth (IRE)02/10/2021Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot StakesNEWMARKET12Video
ClassicKnicks Go02/10/2021Lukas Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS31Video
Dirt MileIndependence Hall02/10/2021Lukas Classic StakesCHURCHILL DOWNS32Video
ClassicArt Collector02/10/2021Woodward StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
MileHit the Road02/10/2021City of Hope Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
MileMo Forza02/10/2021City of Hope Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
MileSmooth Like Strait02/10/2021City of Hope Mile StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
ClassicExpress Train02/10/2021Awesome Again StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
ClassicMedina Spirit02/10/2021Awesome Again StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
ClassicTripoli02/10/2021Awesome Again StakesSANTA ANITA PARK14Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfSail By02/10/2021Miss Grillo StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
SprintC Z Rocket02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK23Video
SprintCollusion Illusion02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
SprintDr. Schivel02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
SprintFlagstaff02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
Turf SprintCollusion Illusion02/10/2021Santa Anita Sprint Championship StakesSANTA ANITA PARK25Video
Filly & Mare TurfDogtag02/10/2021Rodeo Drive StakesSANTA ANITA PARK13Video
Filly & Mare TurfGoing to Vegas02/10/2021Rodeo Drive StakesSANTA ANITA PARK11Video
MileDuhail (IRE)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de la ForetLONGCHAMP110Video
MileSpace Blues (IRE)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de la ForetLONGCHAMP11Video
MileSpeak of the Devil (FR)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de la ForetLONGCHAMP16Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfCairo Memories03/10/2021Surfer Girl StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfHelens Well (IRE)03/10/2021Surfer Girl StakesSANTA ANITA PARK2Video
Juvenile Fillies TurfLiam's Dove03/10/2021Surfer Girl StakesSANTA ANITA PARK10Video
Filly & Mare SprintCe Ce03/10/2021Chillingworth StakesSANTA ANITA PARK31Video
Filly & Mare TurfAudarya (FR)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP14Video
Filly & Mare TurfGrand Glory (GB)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP12Video
Filly & Mare TurfRougir (FR)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP11Video
Filly & Mare TurfThundering Nights (IRE)03/10/2021Prix de l'Opera LonginesLONGCHAMP15Video
Juvenile TurfIl Capitano03/10/2021Zuma Beach StakesSANTA ANITA PARK10Video
Juvenile TurfMackinnon03/10/2021Zuma Beach StakesSANTA ANITA PARK1Video
Juvenile FilliesEcho Zulu03/10/2021Frizette StakesBELMONT PARK11Video
Juvenile TurfAnnapolis03/10/2021Pilgrim StakesBELMONT PARK21Video
DistaffAs Time Goes By03/10/2021Zenyatta StakesSANTA ANITA PARK22Video
DistaffPrivate Mission03/10/2021Zenyatta StakesSANTA ANITA PARK21Video
Filly & Mare TurfSnowfall (JPN)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP16Video
TurfSealiway (FR)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP15Video
TurfSnowfall (JPN)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP16Video
TurfTarnawa (IRE)03/10/2021Qatar Prix de l'Arc de TriompheLONGCHAMP12Video
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Cesarewitch Draw and Pace Bias Plus The Effect Of The Ground On Front Runners At York

Some very interesting betting races at both York and Newmarket this weekend and the most interesting of all has to be the Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket. As usual there are 34 runners plus 2 reserves entered and some course biases would be extremely handy in narrowing down this field, so let’s take a look at what might prevail here.

Cesarewitch Draw Bias

The general consensus is you want to be drawn low in this, but how strong is the bias over 2m2f at Newmarket?

The Cesarewitch Trial doesn’t tend to attract big fields so we are fairly limited with our data here as most of it is only provided by the renewal of this race each year. The good news is that with some massive field sizes a huge amount of runners have contributed to the PRB data here and that is going to be by far our most reliable gauge of a potential draw bias at Newmarket.

The PRB data seems to favour low and middle over high with a low draw PRB of 0.54, a middle draw PRB of 0.53 and a much poorer PRB for the highest third of the draw of just 0.44.

The win data isn’t totally reliable given a relatively small sample of races since 2009 but it’s worth noting that only one winner since that data has come from a stall higher than 23 and that was when Frankie Dettori made all on Never Can Tell in 2011. His stall number was 36 but with non runners and reserves not making the cut he effectively came out of stall 33. It’s worth noting that not only was he able to get a good early position from his ‘bad’ draw, Dettori also explored a completely different part of the straight than the rest of the field which probably gave him a big advantage that day - negating the disadvantage of his draw.

That win certainly looks the exception to the rule and it seems that for win purposes we probably want to look at the bottom two thirds of the draw.

For a more detailed look at the draw we should check out the individual stall data.

Both the table and the graph are sorted by PRB3 (PRB3 is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten) to give us the best indication of the best and worst places to be drawn in the Cesarewitch.

First of all though, we’ve established that winning is very difficult from the top third of the draw but what about placing? Higher drawn runners do place, and it’s easy to then suggest the draw bias can’t be very strong because of it, but that isn’t wise. Of the top eleven place percentages for individual stalls, nine of those come from stalls 11 or lower. The only other stalls to break into that top eleven are stalls 19 and 27.

Stall 33’s sole place came when Dettori found the quickest ground and if you were willing to ignore that, which admittedly is slightly selective use of the data, it could be said that the highest seven stalls are all in the bottom fourteen stalls as far as place percentages are concerned.

A total of seventeen stalls have placed more than once and fourteen of those were stall 16 or below. The other three stalls to have two places or more are 19, 22 and 27.

Based on the win and place data, I’d suggest that the winner is very likely to come from stall 23 or lower and the placed horses are very likely to be dominated by stalls 27 and lower. That potentially rules out eleven runners for win purposes and seven runners for place purposes.

As mentioned previously, the most reliable data in this sample is the PRB data as every runner is contributing to that.

Again, this is selective use of the stats as Stall 33 has won the race before, but we’ve established that he probably didn’t really win completely on merit so I’m willing to largely overlook that anomaly. If you did ignore that win the top twenty-two individual stall PRB figures would belong to the lowest 28 stalls and any stall higher than that would have a PRB of 0.46 at best. The top six PRB figures include five stalls that are 10 or lower.

For some reason there is a slight dip in performance as far as PRB3 is concerned from around stall 9 to stall 18. There is no obvious reason why that might be the case and perhaps that line will be smoothed further in future years. It certainly seems as though being drawn 11 or lower is absolutely ideal according to many of the individual stall metrics.

All of the above data is based on the actual stall the runners emerged from, which is impacted by non runners, rather than the racecard stall numbers. It’s worth noting that the reserves this year are drawn in stalls 23 and 3. Assuming neither gets a run stalls 4 to 22 will effectively break from one stall lower than their racecard draw and stalls 24 and above will effectively come out of two stalls lower than their racecard draw. So if you were using stall 23 as the cut off for where you might be able to win from, stall 25 would actually qualify as that will effectively be stall 23.

One final point to note on the Cesarewitch draw advantage is that as of 2020, you have to go all the way back to Sergeant Cecil’s victory from stall 9 in 2005 to find a renewal of this race where a horse drawn 7 or lower didn’t finish in the first four. So it might not be a bad strategy to simply back your favoured horse drawn 7 or lower to place - there are plenty of runners at very big prices amongst those draws this year.

Cesarewitch Pace Bias

So we certainly seem to have a Cesarewitch draw bias, what about a Cesarewitch pace bias at Newmarket?

The win percentages suggest the closer you are to the early pace the better but sixteen races is too small a sample to be reading too much into the win data when we can also look at the place data.

The place percentages suggest there really is much in it at all. The top place percentage of 15.91% belongs to prominent whilst front runners have a slightly inferior place percentage of 15.71%.

The best two place percentages do belong to the most aggressive run styles but with mid division place percentage coming in at 12.5% and held up providing a place percentage of 14.21% there really isn’t much between the data.

If there aren’t many front runners in the field I’d probably slightly favour something that is likely to be ridden in the front half of the field but granted an even pace or better I’d have no hesitation in going for something a bit more patiently ridden if they have the right sort of draw and a strong level of form.

Cesarewitch Draw and Pace Combination

Draw and pace are both extremely important factors in most races. In combination they can be hugely influential and the draw and pace combination heat map on the Draw Analyser helps give extra insight into potential course biases.

Despite Newmarket often being a front runner’s track, the data points to a front running ride from either low or middle to be a disadvantage in this race with extremely poor PRB figures for each of those combinations. The only reason front running from a high draw comes out okay is the victory of Never Can Tell in 2011 and that probably shouldn’t be taken at face value. More runners have led early from low, than middle and high combined, so it’s clear that it’s much easier to get the lead from a low stall as those higher drawn runners are likely to track across.

Racing prominently is rarely a bad thing at Newmarket and that’s certainly the case if a runner is drawn low or middle in this with impressive PRBs of 0.58 and 0.64 respectively. Things get drastically worse for this run style from high draws though with a PRB of just 0.31. Nineteen runners have raced prominently from a high draw since 2009 and only one of those even managed to place.

Racing in mid division is possibly just about the best place to be if drawn low but things get steadily worse the higher you are drawn for this run style. The place percentages for middle and high for mid division are extremely poor (less than 4% compared to 24.25% for mid division for low).

The draw seems to make the least amount of difference for those held up with not a massive amount between the draws for that run style. On balance, if you are backing a high drawn runner then it is probably best that the horse is dropped out from the start. If you are a hold up performer then there isn’t much between a low and middle draw as far as PRB is concerned, although place percentage data very slightly favours middle.

This heat map is very informative and my reading of the data is that prominent runners from low or middle draws should be marked up, as should those racing in mid division from low draws, whilst I wouldn’t be completely put off hold ups from low or middle.

Cesarewitch 2021 Pace Map

This is the pace map for the 2021 Cesarewitch Handicap, based on the last two runs of each participant.

I have added two blue boxes which may well be the most advantageous draw and pace combinations. There is of course no guarantee that those runners will reproduce those run styles, or that runners outside of the boxes won’t be ridden differently this time around.

Overall there is a fair amount of pace in this contest, particularly drawn very low although Aleatoric is second reserve and unlikely to run. There is also pace middle and high and those runners are going to have to use up plenty of early energy if they are to compete with Putting Green and Land Of Winter for the early lead.

Only a couple of the low drawn runners appear likely to be dropped out early, potentially forfeiting some of their draw advantage, and one of those includes the well fancied Buzz.

Given there is a decent amount of early pace in this on paper I wouldn’t rule out the more patiently ridden runners from low and middle draws although they might be at a slight disadvantage against some other draw and pace combinations (mainly the two marked in the blue boxes on the pace map).

Cesarewitch 2021 Preview

It's not impossible to build a case for many of these but I had four runners, all relatively well found in the betting, in mind for this from an early stage.

I’m never quite sure what to do with the Willie Mullins runners in these races. He’s won this for the past three years and runs five this year. In general they are difficult to weigh up from a form perspective but you know they should usually be respected because of the powerful yard they represent.

MC Muldoon is one of the easier ones to work out because he ran in the Ascot Stakes in June. He was runner up in that contest, and an unlucky runner up at that. I was really impressed with how he made up ground that day, going from around five or six lengths off the pace turning for home to about two lengths off the pace by the time they reached the 2f marker. This long straight will allow him to make up the ground in his own time and his draw in stall 15 is more than fine. He’s up 4lbs and the form of that Ascot Stakes race could certainly have worked out better so there are negatives but he’s clearly been campaigned with this in mind all season and has to be the one to beat.

Elysian Flame was one place behind him that day on ground that would have been plenty fast enough. He then did best of those held up at Glorious Goodwood over a similar trip. He stays all day and would have preferred more rain but what rain they’ve had will suit, as should the long straight. He’s entitled to push MC Muldoon close from a similar draw, with a similar run style, but you get the impression that MC Muldoon is the classier rival.

The horse that finished ahead of Elysian Flame at Goodwood was Calling The Wind, who has been extremely progressive over staying trips this season. He was runner up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes in June but it’s not always best to take that form at face value. He came out of that and won at Goodwood though, cruising through that contest and only needing to be shaken up in the final furlong to win comfortably. He was put up 6lbs for that but probably put in his most remarkable effort to date last time out over just 12f. Despite that distance looking far too short for him based on this season’s exploits he once again cruised through the race, showing more speed than any other rival, only to go down by a head to a well handicapped winner. His performance needs to be watched to be appreciated and he has looked well ahead of his mark on his last few runs. The problem here is stall 27, which admittedly will effectively be stall 25 assuming the two reserves don’t make the cut. That stall would make him slightly higher still than the preferred cut off for win purposes but just about within the cut off for placing.

If Calling The Wind had been granted a much lower draw I don’t see how this horse would have finished out of the places and would have backed accordingly. As it is he still has a fair chance of placing at least but the market hasn’t reacted enough to his draw (meaning he should have drifted more) so I’ll have just a small each way bet on him instead.

Platform Nineteen was four places behind Calling The Wind at Goodwood and followed that up with a strong 3rd at York over two miles.

What is interesting about that form is the 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th have all won since making Platform Nineteen look well handicapped still off a 1lb higher mark. Unfortunately he has fared just as badly as Calling The Wind when it comes to the draw having been handed stall 28. From very similar draws I’d expect Calling The Wind to finish maybe a couple of lengths ahead of Platform Nineteen but Calling The Wind is only around 8/1 at the time of writing whereas Platform Nineteen is around the 25/1 mark. I’d much rather back Platform Nineteen to place at around 6/1 than Calling The Wind to place at around 2/1!

I think this quartet will all run well in this race and begrudgingly admit that MC Muldoon is the most likely winner but he offers no value, nor does Calling The Wind who the draw has hindered. I’m reluctant to get too involved in PLATFORM NINETEEN given the draw but he has to be considered the value play in this for all his draw has probably cost him a winning chance, making a place only bet the most appealing wager – you’d still get paid at similar odds as you would on MC Muldoon winning.

Coral Sprint Trophy Preview

From eighteen furlongs to six. Over at York, at 3.15pm, another extremely tough handicap will be run - the Coral Sprint Trophy.

The draw advantage at York probably isn’t what it used to be, they largely come up the middle and that seems to be just about the best place to be, making it a pretty level playing field as far as stalls are concerned.

Pace still has a huge bearing on York sprints though. It’s often a huge advantage to be on the speed over both 5f and 6f but is that still the case on testing ground?

The above shows the pace bias in big field York sprints on good or good to firm ground.

Meanwhile this is the pace data for sprints on good to soft or soft ground.

Front runners actually do marginally better in softer conditions for both win and place percentages. With front runners doing even better on testing ground we see a slightly poorer performance from those that are held up.

In this year’s race Gulliver will be going for a hat trick having won this in both 2019 and 2020. Despite being held up more often than not, which isn’t a great run style for this venue, all four of his turf wins have come at York. For 99% of the race in 2019 he looked like an also ran having been first off the bridle but he kept responding and got up late. A year later things were far more straight forward. Despite being settled at the back of the field he made up ground more comfortably this time, winning by over 2 lengths against a runner up that would be rated 10lbs higher within 6 months.

He also ran in a 6f handicap this season, on good to soft ground, but it appears the ground wasn’t quite soft enough as he was never going quick enough and finished a never nearer 6th. He did second best of the hold up performers that day and it’s worth noting that the best of those hold up performers was Mr Lupton who won the race. Mr Lupton is 3lbs better off with Gulliver in this having beaten him by 4.75 lengths so even though Gulliver looks likely to run well again off the same mark he carried to victory last year, it’s difficult to argue he is any sort of value against Mr Lupton who is the complete outsider of the field whereas Gulliver is the favourite. Like Guilliver, Mr Lupton also has four wins on the Knavesmire so is just as much of a course specialist.

You do have to forgive Mr Lupton four poor runs on the bounce, which is why he is such a big price, whereas Gulliver looks much more likely to run his race.

I do like Gulliver’s chances but the ground isn’t going to get any softer there now and that might count against him.

There are some interesting Irish runners in this race. Laugh A Minute was rated as high as 109 when with Roger Varian and placed twice here (good previous York form is always a huge bonus in any of these races). He comes here rated 92 having gone close last time despite never really getting a clear run. His better form has generally come on better ground though and he was well beaten in this last year.

Verhoyen could be the most interesting Irish raiders though. Three of his four wins have come over 6f but he’s been running over 5f recently. Last time out he got within half a length of the now 100 rated Strong Johnson, off level weights, meaning he’s feasibly handicapped here off 92 with the step back up in trip looking likely to suit.

Magical Spirit looks overpriced at 16/1 with most bookies. He ran a solid 4th in the Ayr Silver Cup last time out despite the ground not being soft enough and he was also 4th in this last year off a 5lb higher mark.

Magical Spirit ran very well over a slightly inadequate 5f on his penultimate start at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting but what is interesting about that race is he was 2nd in the near side group and the other runners who came near side have let that form down repeatedly since.

However the race that took place on the far side is far more interesting. The winner of the entire race, and therefore first home on the far side, was Tis Marvellous who has won two listed races since and placed in a Group 3 since. The runner up on the far side, beaten 2 lengths, was King Of Stars who has won two handicaps subsequently. Then third home on the far side, beaten a length by King Of Stars, was Snazzy Jazzy who is now a massive 7lbs lower and runs here. On that form alone he is 8lbs better off with Magical Spirit.

That was one of three strong efforts Snazzy Jazzy put in during the summer over 5f and the other two came here at York. The first of those was a 4th in a listed contest won by subsequent Nunthorpe winner Winter Power. The runner up has finished 2nd in a Group 3 since and the 3rd placed in a listed race next time out.

Snazzy Jazzy was also 7th in the above race, that I highlighted as hot form ahead of the Portland Handicap a few weeks ago. The 3rd and 5th have both won twice since and the 1st and 2nd have both finished as runner up since giving that form a really solid look. Snazzy Jazzy was only beaten 3 lengths in this race and is now racing off a 5lb lower mark.

His two subsequent runs haven’t been quite so good but he was held up in the centre of the course in the Ayr Gold Cup which was absolutely not the place to be from both a draw and pace perspective. He was then outclassed in a listed race last time out. His runs at 5f on good or good to soft ground in the summer read very well given all his best form previously had come on soft ground at 6f, the scenario he faces on Saturday.

He could easily bounce back to form back at York, pitched into more suitable company on a lenient handicap mark, and although his hold up style isn’t tailor made for this course, he’s already run well here against pace biases. There is also plenty of pace likely in this (four habitual front runners) which will boost both his, and Gulliver’s chances. SNAZZY JAZZY looks far more interesting than Gulliver though given the 33/1 on offer.

Good luck whatever you are backing!

Ascot and Redcar Straight Course Draw Biases (Plus More Chester Hot Form)

Take your pick this weekend when it comes to top racing – there is Group 1 action from Newmarket in the form of the Sun Chariot Stakes, Ascot hosts a couple of Group 3s and some class 2 handicaps and even Redcar has two listed races including their well funded Two Year Old Trophy.

We saw last week at Newmarket that the near side rail was once again the place to be but the stalls will be on the far side for this meeting which will nullify that bias in most races.

I’m going to look at a couple of draw biases this week, at both Ascot and Redcar, with a couple of handicap races in mind.

Ascot Straight Course Draw Bias

Let’s first take a look at data from the straight course at Ascot on ground that is between good and soft.

A huge sample size as we include a variety of distances and the data implies a slight advantage to being drawn middle to high rather than low.

High performs best for win purposes, middle is narrowly ahead of high for places and middle and high both have a PRB of 0.51, compared to 0.48 for low. The lower draws come out the worst across every metric.

From spring to summer I’d nearly always prefer a high draw on anything I’m backing but things begin to change at this time of year. One factor that affects the draw now is a false rail is used at this meeting to save the ground for Champions day. This results in reduced field capacity this weekend and slightly different parts of the track being explored for some runners.

At this meeting in the past there seems to have been various draw biases, or perhaps no draw bias depending on which way you look at it.

We lost this meeting to the weather last year so the last time we had this meeting was back in 2019 and Kynren won the big 7f handicap from stall 17. That same stall was successful in 2018 when Raising Sand won and 16 was the winning stall in 2016. Accidental Agent won this from stall 8 in 2017. These recent wins seem to suggest the high stall bias remains for this meeting.

Just as important as simply looking at where the winners came from is to watch the races back and to see what parts of the course were explored and where on the track the placed horses were. In 2019 they came middle to near side in the ‘Challenge Cup’ and near side seemed to dominate. In a 5f handicap later on in that card they explored the same part of the track and although stalls 1 and 3 both placed, they actually passed the line on the same part of the track (near side) that Kynren won on earlier that day.

Although this is only two races worth of evidence, it does suggest two things. The first is that there seemed to be an advantage to racing near side (high numbers). The second is that without massive, 30 runner fields at this meeting the lower drawn numbers are still able to get over and race on the better ground. So whilst a high draw might be an advantage of some sort again this year, it doesn’t mean you can rule out the low numbers.

What about other recent years? In 2018 high numbers dominated the Challenge Cup but the winner largely raced in the middle of the pack and there didn’t seem as much of an advantage as the placed stall numbers would suggest. There was also a big field that year in the 7f listed race and again the winner came down the middle.

In 2017 the winners were coming middle to far side but then in 2016 they were coming middle or near side.

The overall point here with the draw at this meeting is that if there is a draw bias it’s not the easiest to predict and if you can predict it’s almost certainly not as strong a draw bias as you often see earlier in the season, partly because the field sizes as smaller.

If I could pick the ‘perfect’ draw here I’d probably go for something just on the high side of middle as it’s almost certain you’ll have an excellent chance of winning from there, if good enough. I’d prefer not to be drawn very low but I wouldn’t rule anything out solely because of it.

Challenge Cup 2021 Thoughts

First of all, a note on the ground/weather. Judging by the weather forecast the ground will be just on the soft side of good when racing on Friday finishes and the ground come race time on Saturday (3.50pm) depends very much on how early the heavy rain comes. At the time of writing heavy rain is forecast to hit the course an hour or two before this race. If it comes earlier than that the ground will almost certainly be soft, or if the rain is delayed this could be run on something closer to good to soft.

So it might be an idea to hold your bets unless your bet has no fears on anything the soft side of good.

Ascot is generally a fair course in terms of pace and the most important thing to consider is the individual pace setup in each race.

There really isn’t a lot of likely pace in this race which is automatically going to draw me towards something that likes to race prominently and something that is a bit more speed over stamina.

I’d have concerns over Al Rufaa and Arastus if the ground softens at all. Al Rufaa won a maiden on soft as a 2yo but ran flat last time he encountered cut whilst Arastus was pulled out because of good to soft ground in July.

Fresh is a horse I have a lot of time for, I fancied him strongly in the Wokingham here in June when 2nd to Rohaan. He’s only 2lbs higher now and seems to get on well with cut in the ground  and enjoys this course so clearly isn’t handicapped out of things at all. I just have reservations about this distance. He’s been strong at the finish on recent starts but he’s also a smooth traveller and whilst a muddling 7f won’t be the strongest test of stamina, this will be run at a very different tempo to what he’s used to and he’s unlikely to be ideally placed. There are enough negatives to put me off.

Escobar is another who likes it here and he too is feasibly handicapped. He was 3rd over course and distance behind River Nymph in May in a race that wasn’t strongly run and he found that a bit too much of a speed test. He’s 3lbs higher here and prefers a stronger gallop so he appeals more as one for the Balmoral Handicap later this month, a race he won in 2019.

River Nymph is only 1lb worse off with Escober for that win and has already proved he can operate over course and distance, on soft ground, in a relatively slowly run race. He’s still only raced 12 times and should still have some improvement left in him. There was nothing wrong with his listed 4th last time out when he was given plenty to do and it would be a surprise if more prominent racing tactics aren’t employed here. There is lots to like except the price. He’s shortened plenty since the ante post markets were put up but he should still be a fairly safe each way play with stall 7 not looking too bad.

Aldaary is one that has plenty of experience here. He’s been running in the big 7f handicaps here this summer and hasn’t been getting his ground so he promises to improve on his 5th in both the Buckingham Palace Stakes and the International Stakes now that he does get his ground. He’s a strong stayer at 7f though so whilst he’s one I like from a form and ground perspective, the pace make up here might not suit him and stall 2 probably isn’t the perfect draw.

It’s impossible to put that pace map up and not talk about Tomfre, who could get his own way out in front. He completed a hat trick on very testing ground towards the end of last season, wins that took him from a rating of 93 to 105. You could argue that rating has found him out this season but he was runner up in a listed race on seasonal debut when conceding race fitness to the rest of the field and then he was runner up in a York handicap when far more patiently ridden than usual. His 9th on very fast ground in the Buckingham Palace Stakes here was a fair effort considering he is an out and out mudlark and after that he missed 92 days, presumably due to the dry spell we had. On his return he was 1.75 lengths behind River Nympth at Newbury, admittedly that horse shaped better and was also returning from a break, but again Tomfre would have appreciated softer ground that day. If the ground turns soft Tomfre would rate a good each way bet at around 16/1 and if it managed to come up heavy he'd be a strong bet – although those odds would probably be long gone.

A drastic softening of the ground would also suit Ascension, who will appreciate this drop back in trip and his racing style could be well suited to this race, as well as Young Fire who was 2nd here over a mile at the Shergar Cup meeting in a race that has worked out well enough. He doesn’t really get on with York so he’s forgiven his effort last time out but he appreciates a good gallop as well as plenty of rain and he’s unlikely to get the former.

No prizes for suggesting River Nymph and Aldaary are the most likely winners of this. The former is a bit more versatile tactically speaking so is preferred from the pair however if the heavy rain comes early afternoon it should get into the ground pretty quickly and that would make TOMFRE great value. His draw in stall 11 could be just about perfect too.

Redcar Draw Bias

There seems to have been a huge shift in draw bias at Redcar this season. Here is the data for straight course handicaps in larger fields between 2009 and 2020.

Then here are the same filters just for this season.

Low drawn runners are winning more often, placing more often, and beating more rivals home than ever before.

Now I’m not sure why this is the case but on Saturday we have the 14 runner 2yo listed race and a 15 runner sprint handicap where low draws are likely to be advantaged in a way the bookies don’t quite appreciate and I also think it will have an impact on the 12 runner mile handicap, due off at 4.45.

Straight Mile Series Handicap Final Thoughts

This is the series final and it’s attracted a good field of runners with plenty of course form that has got them into this race.

The pace map shows that Delgrey Boy is likely to get an uncontested lead and if his jockey has much sense he’s going to pop out of stall 1 and head over to the far side rail. There is very little between him, Copper And Five and Sucellus on their course and distance clash a couple of weeks ago and the first two of those are both drawn low but Sucellus is drawn in 11 so the latter could come off worst of the trio this time. Neither Delgrey Boy or Copper And Five look particularly well handicapped anymore so whilst both should enjoy the run of the race, both from a draw and pace perspective, they could be vulnerable to other low drawn runners.

Those two runners may be Give It Some Teddy and Scottish Summit. The latter continues to outrun his odds but is frustrating in that he struggles to get his head in front. He’s only 1lb higher than when 3rd at York, not getting the run of the race, behind two subsequent winners, so he’s well handicapped and should go very well but he may be the bridesmaid yet again.

Give It Some Teddy has won this race for the past two renewals (no race last year) and has managed to turn up this year 2lbs lower than his last win here.

From 11 runs here he has a record of 5 wins and 7 places so he’s very much the course specialist in the field and trainer Tim Easterby could hardly be in much better form – his win strike rate in the past year in handicaps is 11.88% and in the past 14 days that has risen to 15.18%. It’s also worth noting that as well as winning this with Give It Some Teddy in the previous two renewals, he’s actually won four of the last five runnings of the race. He admittedly runs three others here (Delgrey Boy, Perfect Swiss and Al Erayg) but Give It Some Teddy holds those first two runners on recent course form and Al Erayg is 5lbs out of the handicap.

Give It Some Teddy, despite being 2lbs lower than his last win here, comes into this race in good form. He won comfortably at Thirsk in August, beating a next time out winner, and he followed that up with a narrowly beaten 3rd here off a 1lb lower mark than he races off here. That race has also worked out well with the runner up winning by 6 lengths on his next start and the 4th and 5th going on to win soon after too.

Give It Some Teddy has an excellent chance of making it three in a row in this with Scottish Summit feared most.

Hot Form At Chester

Last week at Chester I highlighted some hot form, which admittedly didn’t translate to such good performances on the day for a variety of reasons, but there is a good chance on Saturday for one of those strands of form to receive another boost.

I shared the above form line as a reason to why Muntadab might run well last week. As it was he doubled in price throughout the day and didn’t run to form but there is enough evidence to suggest The Kodi Kid could run a big race on Saturday in the opening race at 1.55pm.

The 2nd and 3rd both came out of that above race and won, as did the 7th, and it was The Kodi Kid who very much emerged from the race as the one to follow. He was weak in the betting, wide throughout and ultimately shaped as though he’d come on for the run – his first for two months and his first for Charlie Fellowes having previously raced for Andrew Balding.

The Kodi Kid has a previous course and distance success to his name on good to soft ground, where he beat a subsequent triple winner, and he still seems to be well handicapped off a 5lb higher mark here. There is a fair bit of rain forecast at Chester and it’s worth also noting that whereas the formbook says his last effort, shown above, came on good ground but the ground was actually changed to soft immediately after that race so it seems plenty of cut suits.

Master Zoffany has won two from two at Chester this season, both wins working out well, and he’d rate the main danger on ground he’ll likely enjoy but he does have to bounce back from a poor effort last time out at Goodwood (he’s been off for two months since).

Good luck with whatever you are backing this weekend.

Newmarket Cambridgeshire Handicap Draw and Pace Bias

The big meeting this weekend is hosted by Newmarket as it’s Cambridgeshire day. The Cambridgeshire itself is certainly one of the toughest races of the season but I’m expecting to highlight some fairly strong course biases in this article so perhaps the race isn’t as difficult to figure out as it initially seems.

Cambridgeshire Draw Bias

On initial inspection, it might seem as though there isn’t much of a draw bias in the Cambridgeshire.

There is virtually nothing between win percentages and PRB data for the low, middle and high draws whilst the place percentages hint at high being slightly favoured over low and middle. The highest third of the draw has a place percentage of 16.67% whilst middle and low have place percentages of 14.35% and 14.14% respectively.

The individual stall data may reveal more of a Cambridgeshire draw advantage though.

The first thing to catch the eye is the fact that 8 of the top 9 PRB figures belong to double figured stalls and 6 of those are 19 or higher.

According to the draw data line graph, which is showing PRB3 data (PRB3 is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten), there is an increase in performance around stalls 20-24 so perhaps that is the sweet spot.

There is no rock solid trend here but it does seem a trend has been developing in recent years. It seems more often than not runners are favouring the stands’ side (high draws) and four of the last five Cambridgeshire winners have finished very close to the near side rail. All of those last five runnings have been won by horses drawn between 21 and 29.

Looking only at big field, 9f races here since 2016 there is now a clear bias towards those drawn high. Low draws have a PRB of just 0.42, middle draws have a PRB of 0.52 and high draws have an impressive PRB of 0.56.

The PRB3 line graph representing individual stall performance now shows what seems to be an increasing advantage towards those drawn high. There is though a slight peak in performance around the 12-14 stall mark as well for some reason.

The important points to note with this more recent draw data are that the top 21 stalls for PRB3 are all double figure numbers and 9 of the worst 13 performers are single figure draws. This strongly suggests we want to avoid low draws in the Cambridgeshire.

Cambridgeshire Pace Bias

Here is the data from the Pace Analyser for Newmarket’s 9f course in big fields.

It's a fairly small sample, as you’d probably expect, so take win percentages with a slight pinch of salt but it’s interesting to see that front runners dominate for win percentages. Early leaders have a very impressive win percentage of 9.38% which is more than twice the next best win percentage of 4.65% which belongs to mid division.

Given the sample size, the place percentages should give us a stronger idea of any likely Cambridgeshire pace biases. The top place percentage belongs to front runners as well but the difference in place percentage between front runners and mid division is negligible. There is also only a small drop off for prominent but the figure that really stands out is the place percentage for held up. That place percentage is just 11.65% and the win percentage is just 2.91%.

It seems that we want to avoid hold up performers in this race just as much as we want to avoid single figure stalls.

Cambridgeshire Draw and Pace Combination

This is the heat map, sorted by PRB since 2009.

And this is the same data but only for 2016 onwards.

The more recent data seems to be the data we should concentrate on but some of the trends should be cross referenced with the overall data as we are dealing with a limited sample size for this recent data.

Logic would dictate that if front runners getting the near side rail are at an advantage then leading from a high draw should be the best combination but it actually seems as though front runners are doing extremely well from middle draws. Leading from a high draw is also an advantage , but possibly not quite as much of one.

A higher draw does seem to suit prominent racers better than a middle draw though but that switches back again when dealing with those racing in mid division. Perhaps those on the near side rail that are settled in mid division find it too difficult to get a run through.

We’ve established that those that are held up do struggle to run into the places and it seems there isn’t much difference whether they are drawn in the middle or drawn high.

Cambridgeshire 2021 Pace Map

Any talk of pace biases is irrelevant without looking at the pace map as course pace biases can always be reverses depending on the pace setup in a race.

I often use pace maps that only show the last two runs but the majority of these are seasoned handicappers who have seen plenty of action so the above pace map takes into account their last four races. It’s worth noting this suggests there isn’t likely to be a pace burn up but no less than eight of these were early leaders last time out and three of them have led on both of their last two starts so it is probable there will be a bit more of a contested speed than this pace map initially suggests.

I’ve added two blue boxes and a green box to the pace map. The blue boxes show groups of runners that are likely to be disadvantaged by draw and/or pace whilst the green box highlights where the winner is most likely to come from. Based on the data from more recent years you could easily put a line through anything drawn 18 or lower so feel free to be more harsh with your own calculations.

Back to the pace setup, there is some pace amongst the lower numbers but three of the more likely pace setters are drawn in stall 29 or higher. With the ground possibly faster on the near side plus the majority of the pace this side too, I’m becoming more and more confident that the top half of the draw, and probably the top third, is the place to be.

How Well Handicapped Do You Have To Be To Win The Cambridgeshire?

This is an important question to ask. In these big handicaps you often hear about the ‘group horse in a handicap’. That’s not crazy talk either, in 2019 subsequent Group 1 winner Lord North took this race and the year before future Group 3 victor Wissahickon landed the spoils.

Last year’s winner, Majestic Dawn, is back again this year off a 10lb higher mark. Lord North, eventually rated 25lbs higher than when winning this and his stable mate, Wissahickon was rated 10lbs higher than his winning mark for this race within 6 months.

The 2017 winner, Dolphin Vista, was rated a stone higher than his rating when winning this within 5 flat starts whilst Spark Plug, winner in 2016, went up 8lbs for his victory and never rated higher.

Third Time Lucky (2015), subsequently rated 11lbs higher whilst Bronze Angel, who won this twice off marks of 95 and 99, also won handicaps later in his career off 104 and 105 with his rating going as high as 111.

Meanwhile Educate, the 2013 Cambridgeshire winner, went up 8lbs to a mark of 112 for his victory and although never rating higher, he did run to that mark of 112 several times in the next year.

So ideally you are going to need a horse to be capable of running to at least an 8lb to 10lb higher mark in the near future if they are going to have a chance of winning this.

On the subject of the official ratings, it’s also interesting to see what sort of rating does well in this race. You need a runner well enough handicapped to win but also classy enough to get into the race in the first place. This year there is 24lbs between the top weight and the bottom weight.

In the past 11 years all winners have been rated between 107 and 87 – difficult to rule many out on that for win purposes (only the top weight and two bottom weights).

Nine of the last eleven winners have been rated 94 or higher which would rule out the bottom thirteen horses as likely winners. A relatively big six of the last ten winners have been rated between just 94 and 99 and only a third of the field fall into that ratings band this year. Four of those are drawn in single figures if you wanted to narrow those runners down further. That would leave just the following runners:

Does The Cambridgeshire Suit Milers or Ten Furlong Horses?

This intermediate distance of 9f means we’ll see a mix of milers stepping up in trip and ten furlong horses dropping down in distance. Very few of these will have run at this distance last time out, or possibly at all in their careers.

Eight of the last eleven winners of this raced at a mile just before taking this contest and five of those subsequently won a race over ten furlongs or further. This probably suggests this is slightly more of a speed test than stamina test and milers definitely have a good record in this, or at very least horses with the speed for a mile (some may have raced over 10f previously as well).

Cambridgeshire 2021 Thoughts

A lot is made of John Gosden in this race. Yes he has won two of the last three renewals but he’s also only won two of the last ten, just as many as Marcus Tregoning. Gosden’s two runners both head the betting having both been given seemingly favourable high draws, although being drawn 30+ isn’t statistically as much of an advantage as being in the mid to high 20s.

Uncle Bryn didn’t make the grade to be a Derby horse this season but he returned from a 113 day break to win an average Ascot handicap last time out. He got the run of the race on a day where front runners dominated and he’s 2lbs badly in with his penalty. Frankie Dettori seems to have chosen stablemate Magical Morning over him and I think I’d agree with Frankie’s choice.

Magical Morning brings some really solid handicap form into this but he very much got the run of the race when winning off a 7lb lower mark at Sandown in July and he’s been beaten in his other five handicap starts. Given most runners need to be 8lbs to 10lbs well in to win this, I just can’t see him being a 114+ horse.

Astro King is one I had in mind for this for a while. I backed him in the Royal Hunt Cup and this 9f trip on fast ground might be perfect for him off just a 4lb higher mark than at Ascot. Had he been drawn ten stalls higher he’d be a fairly strong fancy but 17 is a bit low for me to get involved, certainly at single figure odds.

In the last six years there have been three 3yo winners, a 3yo runner up and a 3yo third so younger horses clearly go well in this. Anmaat is an interesting contender for this and has the right sort of profile. He’s 2lbs well in having beaten the probably well handicapped Faisal last time out at Doncaster and he definitely looks the sort who could be at least 8lbs to 10lbs well in. He’s maybe drawn a little lower than ideal in 22 and does have to prove he’s speedy enough for this having raced over 10f on his last three starts but he’s certainly place material at the very least.

Irish Admiral is still feasibly handicapped and has seemingly now got his act together but stall 15 is a bit low for my liking. Given stall 2, and his overall form level, I’m also against Montather and surprised he’s as short as he is. Long Tradition could be anything but the form of his recent runs isn’t that strong and he has a little to prove in first time cheekpieces on handicap debut.

Bedouin’s Story is one I am tracking closely. He did second best of those held up at Sandown in July, best of the double figure stalls in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and then again was best of those held up at Chelmsford last time out. He stays this far, even though most of his runs have been over shorter and he’s going to win soon when getting the right set up. This should be run to suit but whether or not his hold up run style will allow him to get involved is a big question mark.

I’m finding it very difficult to make a case for much else, for varying reasons, but one does standout for me at a price of 100/1 at the time of writing with a couple of bookies. Naval Commander ran in a hot race at Sandown last season on ground that was probably a bit soft, on a day where he was a bit too patiently ridden to feature. He was 6th and those in front of him that have continued to race this season have rated 18lbs, 16lbs and 13lbs higher. Naval Commander is just 1lb higher here.

He did win on his next start after that Sandown run. That was his seasonal debut this year in June. At Ascot on his next start he was third – the winner and runner up both won next time out and the 4th has been beaten by a short head since. He was then 6th, beaten a length and a half at York – the winner, runner up and 7th have all won since and the 3rd and 4th have placed since. His only run since was a close third at Epsom when not getting a clear run. He’s still lightly enough raced to prove better than his current rating. I’m not convinced this horse should be any bigger than 33/1 and even at that price I’d have made him a small bet. First time cheekpieces could do anything to him but it’s worth remembering first time blinkers did the trick for Majestic Dawn last year.

All things considered I’m probably sweetest on Naval Commander as well as Astro King and Anmaat. I can’t completely rule out Astro King based on a draw of 17 and then strongly fancy Anmaat from stall 22 but Anmaat is just about on the cusp of how low I’d be willing to go whilst Astro King is unfortunately a bit too low for me (and a shorter price than Anmaat). So my two against the field would be ANMAAT and NAVAL COMMANDER, both each way, at around 12/1 and 100/1 respectively.

Hot Form at Chester

There are a trio of horses that are interesting from a hot form perspective in the 2.35 at Chester on Saturday which is a 7f handicap.

Muntadab’s course and distance success (from stall 8) two weeks ago has been well boosted since with the 2nd, 3rd and 7th all winning next time out. The 5th and 6th also reoppose here but they were well enough beaten to not be of interest here. Muntadab is only 2lbs higher here and is much better drawn in stall 2. He’s unlikely to get quite as easy lead this time though.

The Kodi Kid was an eyecatcher in that race and he’s previously run in hot races at Chester already this season. He’s not entered here but is one for your trackers.

Mossbawn’s last two wins at Thirsk have both worked out well, particularly his latest victory. The 3rd, 4th and 7th have all won since whilst the 5th, who reopposes here, was 2nd on his next start. That 5th, Strongbowe, did best of those held up when behind Mossbawn and he should be marked up for that. He’s 3lbs better off than Mossbawn for a 1.5 length defeat and he should get closer this time around.

Muntadab, Mossbawn and Strongbowe are all well enough drawn and should all be prominent if reproducing their run styles from last time out. I’d be surprised if all three didn’t run well and there is perhaps a tricast, or at the very least a decent single amongst them. Slight personal preference would be for Mossbawn who is lightly raced and on a roll but Muntadab does have that important Chester form.

Ayr Gold Cup Draw and Pace Bias Plus Western Meeting Pointers

A different format last week but thankfully I still managed to flag up the chances of Hurricane Ivor who won the Portland. This weekend’s big meeting is of course taking place at Ayr. It’s the final day of the Western Meeting and the big races of the day are the Ayr Silver Cup and the Ayr Gold Cup.

I’ll delve into potential draw and pace biases in this race shortly but it’s worth noting that the draw bias does definitely change from year to year in this so the best clue of all is likely to come in the Bronze Cup which will be run 24 hours earlier than these two races. Middle to low looked the place to be on Bronze Cup day.

That’s all the future though, on to what’s happened in the past.

Ayr Gold Cup Draw Bias

This data can be applied to any big field sprint at Ayr, including the Bronze Cup and Silver Cup.

This race can be run on extremely soft ground but it’s normally run on ground that is good to soft or better so it should pay to concentrate on this data.

Historically it has paid to be lower rather than higher. More than half the winners in this sample have come from the lowest third of the stall whilst high has performed better than middle, an indication that you probably want to be drawn one side or the other and not marooned in the middle.

The place percentages are better for low as well with a place percentage of 23.53% for those drawn on the far side of the course. This time around middle performs better than high for place percentage although there isn’t much in it and low is the clear winner again.

All metrics are useful when examining draw biases but in terms of purely finding out if there is an advantage one way or another PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) is often the top dog as every runner is contributing to the data sample. The PRB figures for this course and distance are 0.53 for low, 0.51 for middle and 0.46 for high. Again this points towards lower the better.

No draw analysis would be complete without looking at the individual stall data as it’s often not just a case of low v middle v high. There are usually some micro biases and cut off points within the overall draw.

The individual stall PRBs aren’t overly conclusive. The two best readings come from the two highest stalls suggesting a very high draw is an advantage although no other stall, 20 or higher, appears in the top fourteen places.

It’s easy to see why the data favours lower drawn runners. Stalls 2 to 10 inclusive all appear in the top thirteen places meaning nine of the top thirteen stalls are 2 to 10.

Stalls 14 to 25 inclusive all appear in the bottom fourteen stalls as far as PRB is concerned. That’s a sequence of 12 stalls all performing badly, much worse than stalls 2 to 10. This all appears to suggest low is the place to be in this race.

So we definitely want to be drawn low and high numbers have no chance, is that right?

Absolutely not!

In 2020, on good to soft ground the finishing positions of the first 5 home in the Bronze Cup were 21, 22, 4, 14, 24 so higher draws certainly can’t be ruled out. It does seem that low is favoured more often than not though.

Ayr Gold Cup Pace Bias

Big fields can bring about the best in hold up types but do these big Ayr sprints suit the patiently ridden or the prominently ridden?

Despite the straight track and cavalry charge style race the pace tends to hold up remarkably well here. Prominent and mid division produce more winners but from far more runners. In terms of win percentages (9.09%) and place percentages (29.55%) front runners do best of all here. Prominent is next best on the place percentage leader board, followed by mid division, with held up the worst run style for seeing horses to best effect here. When you see a sliding scale like this it’s a pretty sure sign of a pace bias.

One stat that stands out is that backing front runners blind each way in these races gives you a level stakes profit of 17.11 whilst the same strategy for hold up performers yields a 110.71 loss!

Ayr Gold Cup Draw and Pace Combination

I make no secret about my love for the draw and pace combination heat maps on Geegeez Gold and we’re going to see an insightful heat map here.

It’s quite telling that those drawn high seemingly need to be ridden aggressively to be seen to best effect. The best draw and pace combination is leading from a high draw and it produces an amazing PRB of 0.73. Being prominently ridden from high draws also sees horses to good effect but the more patiently ridden you are from a high draw, the more you are likely to struggle.

If drawn low, prominent seems best of all, with low or middle draws seeming quite crucial for those that are going to be held up. If drawn in the middle it seems mid division isn’t the place to be. This often seems to be the case with these heat maps and is probably because horses racing in mid division in big fields from middle draws seem the most likely to experience traffic problems (at least those that are held up can switch wide, those in mid division will be surrounded by other runners and are forced to wait for the gaps to appear).

Ayr Gold Cup 2021 Pace Map

All this talk of pace is irrelevant unless we look at the pace maps for these races. Even if the course tends to lend itself to front runners, an excess of early leaders can cause a pace collapse handing the advantage to those that like to come from behind.

Two things stand out with regards to this pace map. For such a big field there isn’t a whole lot of pace. Just Frank likes to lead, as does Mr Wagyu whilst Brad The Brief tends to only track the leaders.

Second of all, the pace is in the middle of the course. Both of these facts seem bad news for hot favourite Great Ambassador who isn’t going to have a really strong pace to aim at and he isn’t going to have a whole lot to take him into the race either unless he’s switched towards the centre early on.

This probably isn’t going to be the ideal scenario for hold up performers or those that stay a little further. This should be a relative speed test and with the course favouring pace anyway I’d be pretty keen to side with something that races prominently at least. I’ll share some thoughts on some form contenders further down this article.

Ayr Silver Cup 2021 Pace Map

Will we see more pace on offer in this contest?

Possibly a couple more pace options in this one but at the same time the Gold Cup has two real trailblazers, there may be none in this field!

Bergerac tends to lead but he was only ridden prominently last time. Likewise Soldier’s Minute can lead but he often only chases the leaders too. Similar comments apply to Mid Winster and Air Raid. Bergerac seems the most reliable pace option and maybe a couple of other jockeys will take the initiative and go forward to give their mounts the best chance possible.

Unlike the Gold Cup there is a better spread of pace. Bergerac will give the lower numbers a decent tow, Mid Winster should lead the middle pack and the higher numbers will probably follow Air Raid. If the lower drawn runners track over towards the middle we should see a lot more pace there than on the near side rail.

I’d be keen again to support something that will be ridden near the pace in this as I’m not convinced there is going to be enough pace to allow too many to get into this, especially not the most patiently ridden runners.

Ayr Western Meeting Top Trainers

This is a big meeting, Ayr’s biggest, so it’s interesting to investigate which trainers seem to target this meeting.

Given the smaller sample for looking at just September results at Ayr it makes sense to concentrate more on the each way data than the win data. This table is sorted by Each Way %, showing how often these trainers are hitting the frame, and those figures should be cross referenced with the EW PL to see if they are meeting market expectations.

There are some real stand out trainers in this list. The record of Bryan Smart certainly shouldn’t go unnoticed but in terms of trainers who are doing really well with some serious volume the likes of Tim Easterby, Mick Channon and Keith Dalgleish are all trainers to take very seriously with their runners at the Western Meeting here at Ayr.

Thoughts For This Weekend

With this information the immediate thought is ‘how can we profit from it this weekend?’ and I’ll now share my thoughts on some runners who, at the very least, should be able to outperform market expectations.

Ayr Gold Cup Preview

There is rain around for most of Friday but it doesn’t look likely to amount to a great deal and probably just saves them watering the course.

On the assumption of relatively fast ground I most certainly want to be with something that is going to be front rank, something that prefers fast ground and something that is in good form. A low to middle draw also seems an advantage both historically and based on the races that took place on Friday. One runner that fits that category, and pretty much the only runner that does so, is Mr Wagyu. He's had a ridiculously good season, winning five races including the Stewards’ Cup consolation race.

He’s gone up in the weights since that last victory, and has been well enough beaten twice, but with excuses. The first of those defeats came at Ripon, a course where he was beaten 18 lengths, 10 lengths and 8 lengths on his last three tries there. Then last time out in the Portland Handicap he ran really well to finish 6th, finding the extended 5f too sharp on that occasion. It’s certainly true that the handicapper has made life far more difficult for him now but this seems the perfect setup for him. At around 20/1, with up to 7 places on offer at the time of writing, I’d be pretty interested in him, for all a place will be more likely than the win.

Just Frank has shown he is fairly versatile in regards to the ground this season and maybe connections have finally found the key to him at this distance with cheekpieces on. I think he is capable of running well but he’s around half the price of Mr Wagyu and his chance would almost certainly be helped by rain so if the going is good or better I’d prefer My Wagyu. Stall 18 is also a bit higher than ideal by the looks of things.

The majority of the others I like in this race are hold up performers and I think the value is definitely going to lie with those nearer the pace.

Ayr Silver Cup Preview

This takes place just over an hour before the Gold Cup so in terms of draw advantage we are relying on Friday’s racing and historical evidence.

Again, I am very keen to side with something that races pretty close to the pace in this. From a form perspective those nearer the head of the betting all seem to have very good chances and the majority of those market fancies are likely to be ridden fairly prominently. Much might depend on how the ground turns out.

Blackrod will appreciate the step back up to 6f and he’s progressing well. He’s run in some top 3yo sprints this season and has been ridden prominently on his last two starts. His best form is on faster ground and he’s drawn in 10 which seems pretty much perfect. The key thing to note here is he runs off the same mark as when winning over an inadequate trip last time out because that was an apprentice race and this is an early closing race.

Magical Spirit won this last year and has slowly returned to form this season. He should race prominently but he seems best on something resembling good to soft ground. Assuming the ground is faster I’m happy to leave him alone. He’s drawn in stall 4.

Royal Scimitar is a horse I have been following this season. He was only half a length behind Blackrod in July, when drawn on the wrong side of the track, and he is 2lbs better off this time around. He should race fairly handily but the unknown is the first time blinkers. If they have a positive effect he will probably win this, if they don’t he might well finish unplaced. He’s drawn in stall 9, right next to Blackrod, and probably appeals more as a win only bet than an each way if the ground stays fast.

Bergerac is another runner that I’ve personally been following and he’s been really consistent all season. He was runner up at Doncaster on softer ground on his penultimate start, behind a subsequent winner (the third and fourth have finished runner up and third since so good form) and he followed that up with a win at York on faster ground. He’ll likely try to make all from stall 5 which should see him to good effect. Unfortunately he’s 3lbs wrong under a penalty. Assuming there isn't lots of rain he should still run very well and is expected to be amongst the places.

None of those runners are going to make anyone rich so here are two horses at bigger prices that might be interesting, but both are drawn high which looked a negative on Friday. Total Commitment at 16/1 looks overpriced on his Stewards’ Cup 4th. He can lead or race prominently and whilst that effort came on soft ground, he has also won on fast ground. I’d be slightly more interested if the rain came for him as it would inconvenience a few of those fancied horses above that want the rain to stay away.

The other big priced one of interest is Lord Rapscallion. He’s drawn in 23, one stall lower than Total Commitment, and he’s been running in top handicaps all season (4th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes, 3rd in the Bunbury Cup). He didn’t look to stay a mile last time and he’s interesting based on his only 6f run on turf this season when runner up to Chil Chil (easy winner but now rated 14lbs higher) and in front of Great Ambassador, the ante post favourite for the Gold Cup. He’ll race handily and he handles fast and soft ground, just like Total Commitment. Unless high draws do well in the Silver Cup this pair seems best left alone though.

Assuming fastish ground I think Blackrod and Bergerac are near certainties to be in the frame at the least. If they were to compete on current ratings Blackrod would be 8lbs worse off with Bergerac than these terms which suggests Blackrod should be the pick of the two. Royal Scimitar is risky with the blinkers on but if he takes to them he should beat both Blackrod and Bergerac.

Another Race Of Interest

In May, in this column, I put forward a good case for Redarna at a big price in a Haydock handicap. He ran a blinder that day to finish a close 4th and that race worked out well with the 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th all winning shortly after and the 2nd, 5th and 9th all going close on their next starts. That race was run on heavy ground and in that preview I stated that Redarna would be almost unbeatable off his current mark on easy ground at Ayr.

I made that statement knowing the horse had form figures of 1111241, with that 4th coming at 10f (all other races in that sequence had come at 7f). As it turned out Redarna’s next run came at Ayr but I swerved him that day because of fast ground – his only previous win on fast ground had come off a 21lb lower mark. Unfortunately for me he added another 1 to his course form figures at a fair enough price of 9/2. That was only a five runner race but the runner up has gone close on two occasions since so it’s not bad form.

Redarna is a good horse in cheekpieces at 7f or a mile when racing on good or softer ground. His form figures in this scenario read 12117215014. Interestingly the 5 and the 0 came on his two runs at Thirsk so it seems he doesn’t get on with that course.

Given cut in the ground or Ayr, he tends to run very, very well. At Ayr with cut in the ground he’s pretty much unbeatable (in the right company off this sort of mark). He proved he can win off this sort of mark on fast ground at Ayr in July and two defeats elsewhere on fast ground aren’t of great concern. He’s just 1lb higher than his last win and 1lb higher than that hot form at Haydock in May. On fast ground on Saturday he’ll rate a fair bet, on good or even softer he’d be a stronger bet. He runs in the 4.50.

Other Hot Form To Note

Hot form, that is races that are throwing up subsequent winners or runners that are getting much closer to winning next time out, is my main consideration when finding a bet. There is some hot form on offer in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap (3.25) at Newbury on Saturday.

This race looks set to be dominated by the classic generation with several of the well fancied 3yos yet to fully show their hand, which makes backing those horses, or opposing them, a bit risky. However King Of Clubs surely has to be a very solid selection in the race.

His run at Newmarket at the July Meeting was really hot form. The winner won a French Group 2 next time out and is now rated 21lbs higher, the runner up won a Group 3 on his next run and is now rated 9lbs higher. It was no surprise therefore that King Of Clubs won at Sandown on his next start and the 4th also went in at Goodwood on his next run.

King Of Clubs only won by a nose at Sandown so I didn’t expect him to go up by much, even if he was much better than the bare result (not many got into it from behind). However the handicapper put him up 7lbs for that, presumably as much to catch up on the hot form at Newmarket as to ‘punish’ him for the Sandown win.

It’s reassuring though that the runner up in that Sandown race, Victory Chime, came out and won at Chester a week ago off a 4lb higher mark, once again franking the form of King Of Clubs. He’d rate a decent enough each way choice on Saturday even if there are likely to be a few in this race that are better than their current marks.

Doncaster Racecourse Pointers: Draw Bias, Pace Bias, Top Trainers and Top Jockeys

I’m going to be changing the format of these ‘previews’ going forward, hopefully for the better. I’ll be doing a little less research on individual races each week and concentrating more on data and angles that can be useful for more than just one race a week.

If you have any feedback on the newer format, or any extra angles you'd like to be included, feel free to drop a reply below.

Doncaster is the feature meeting on Saturday with the highlight being the St Leger. I’m a bit more partial to some of the quality handicaps on offer there though, notably the Portland Handicap which is run over 5.5f.

Portland Handicap Draw Bias

On the subject of the Portland Handicap, is it best to be drawn low, middle or high?

In big field sprints (5f to 6f) on ground that ranges from good to firm to good to soft it appears there is a slight disadvantage being drawn on either of the flanks, whilst the very centre seems to underperform slightly too.

The line graph above shows the PRB3 data (PRB3 is a rolling three-stall average percentage of rivals beaten) spread across the track and is a great representation of where you might want to, and not want to be drawn. The main takeaway is that being drawn in the bottom five stalls is probably lower than ideal with the highest three stalls also seemingly the place not to be.

The draw and pace combination heat map is a great tool for showcasing any potential draw and pace combination biases. It looks as though leading from the middle is very effective, despite needing to dominate a large field, but the very best combination is racing in mid division from the centre third of the draw. You would think that there was a fair chance of not getting a clear run given that combination as there will likely be horses either side but whilst that will always be a possibility, it’s clearly not been a barrier to success with runners perhaps spreading out enough to allow clear runs through.

If drawn low, being held up is ideal but there is very little in the PRB figures for each run style with low draws. From the higher draws mid division does worst of all with almost nothing between the other run styles.

Overall this looks a very fair course and distance and it would be a bad idea to rule anything out completely based on draw or pace biases but it seems that the very low and very high draws do struggle a little whilst early leaders, or those that race in mid division, from middle draws should perhaps be marked up a little.

Both graphs are available in the draw analyser tool and also on the racecard draw tabs for each race.

Doncaster Pace Bias

A few major handicaps aside, you don’t tend to get too many huge field races at Doncaster meaning the draw can have less of an effect in many cases. Without draw biases it can be a bit more difficult to narrow fields down or find runners that may have an edge due to course biases.

It’s still worth being aware of any potential pace biases the course can throw up.

It’s not always wise to lump such a wide range of distances in together as pace biases can vary plenty depending on the distance of the race but it seems that the data is pretty similar at trips of a mile or further in mid sized fields run on good to soft or better ground.

In general this looks a very fair track in terms of pace as hold up horses are not at a disadvantage. Generally in racing it is an advantage to be nearer the pace and many courses can give an extra advantage to front runners but that is not the case at Doncaster. In fact it is the worst run style statistically for most of the distances involved in this sample.

A course not favouring front runners doesn’t necessarily mean you should only back hold up performers. That run style does marginally have the best place percentage here across all of these distances combined but prominent racers do almost as well. As with all races, the individual pace maps should always be considered and if there is likely to be a pace collapse than those that are patiently ridden will normally benefit whilst a lack of early pace will often suit those ridden nearer the pace.

As an example, there is a lot of early pace in the Portland Handicap this year, as you’d probably expect for a big field sprint. No fewer than eight of these runners have made the running on at least one of their last two outings.

With a possible burn up likely those ridden in the rear half of the field could be advantaged. We already know that it’s a bit of a disadvantage to be drawn very low or very high meaning those in the blue box on the pace map above could be in the sweet spot and are likely to be seen to best effect. It would be no surprise at all if the winner was to come from one of those runners and some quick form study should be able to narrow it down further. If you wanted to be kind you could add Hurricane Ivor into the mix – he’s drawn a little lower than ideal but has run well in several races this season that have worked out to be ‘hot form’.

At the other end of the pace scale there is the Park Stakes.

Here we have just one front runner so the progressive Danyah could get an easy time of things up front. Whilst front runners might not do as well in slightly bigger fields over longer distances here, the best place to be on good or faster ground in this field size over 7f here is on the lead. Front runners have the best win percentage (19.19%) and the best place percentage (36.6%).

Top Doncaster Trainers

If you’re looking for the best trainers at Doncaster racecourse here are the top Doncaster trainers who have had five or more winners in the past five years, sorted by IV (Impact Value). So we are seeing how often they win at this course relative to their counterparts.

Near the very top is John and Thady Gosden, who will have plenty of runners at the major meetings at Doncaster. They’ve enjoyed a very good 2021 as the metrics outperform the previous record for John Gosden before he was joined on his license by son Thady.

Owen Burrows is also amongst the top trainers here and it’s worth noting that his runner on Saturday is Danyah, previously noted as being the likely recipient of an easy lead in the Park Stakes.

Some other trainers to note, who are profitable across all metrics, include Andrew Balding, Ian Williams and James Fanshawe so pay particular attention to any entries at Doncaster, for all meetings, from those stables.

At the very top of the tree though is David Elsworth who has an IV of 3.38, followed by Martyn Meade with an IV of 3.04. Meade is also profitable across all metrics.

Top Doncaster Jockeys

Sometimes it can pay to look at A/E (Actual v Expected) when trying to find the best jockeys at Doncaster as this metric takes into account the market and as we know, not all jockeys are afforded the same opportunities.

Ignoring A/E for just a second, the jockeys most likely to have winners here, with the top IV figures, are Frankie Dettori followed by Jane Elliott, Ryan Moore and Andrea Atzeni.

The name that stands out from that list is Jane Elliott and she is the jockey with the top A/E figure of 2.32. That puts her well clear of the next best jockey Rowan Scott who has an A/E of 1.57. For whatever reason she appears to ride this course extremely well. The fact that she doesn’t get as many opportunities though means she won’t be seen at this racecourse as often as many others.

David Egan and Andrew Mullen are no strangers to this course and they both have very respectable A/E figures and both are profitable to follow here. The much criticised Jamie Spencer also seems to get on pretty well with Doncaster, the long straight giving him plenty of time to get his rides into contention.

Hot Form at Doncaster

One runner I have already mentioned above is Hurricane Ivor. He’s drawn a little lower than ideal, but only by a couple of stalls, and he has some pretty hot form to his name.

In July Hurricane Ivor was 2nd over 5f at Ascot and although the winner has somewhat let the form down since, both his runs have come on ground that was faster than ideal. The 3rd has won since and the 4th has won twice since so it’s clearly a decent form line.

However an even better run potentially, off this mark and crucially over this seldom used distance of 5.5f came last time out at York.

Hurricane Ivor once again ran to Ascot form by beating Mondammej who won his next start after this. Mondammej reversed form with Jawwaal next time out but only just and Jawwaal was a fast finisher. The fact that they both ran very well again next time out in the same race gives this form good perspective.

The winner of this race, Copper Knight, only narrowly went down to Mondammej in that next race too whilst Live In The Moment was 2nd next time in a listed race despite the ground being too fast and not being favoured at the weights.

Another factor to note when weighing up hot form is run styles and course biases. The first two home in that York race above were both up with the pace the whole way whereas Hurricane Ivor was held up, and he didn’t get a clear run. He can be marked up from that performance and should have an excellent chance on a track where hold up performers do better, as long as the draw doesn’t catch him out.

It's worth noting that Copper Knight, Mondammej and Jawwaal all reoppose here too. The two to concentrate on at the weights are probably Hurricane Ivor and Jawwaal given Copper Knight and Mondammej have gone up in the handicap since. It's very interesting that Jawwaal has Doncaster form figures of 321011. He was below par in this last year though and whilst Hurricane Ivor is drawn a little lower than ideal in this year's Portland, it has to be said that Jawwaal is possibly drawn a little too high.

Old Borough Cup Preview and Tips: Autumn War and The Trader Look Value Calls

A really good day of racing lies ahead if competitive racing is your thing but it does have to be said, a few of these big handicaps this weekend have slightly underwhelming turnouts. Several of the heritage handicaps are closer to half full than reaching their maximum fields and I’m not entirely sure why that is (prize money seems largely in line with what is was last year).

The big 7f handicap at Ascot makes plenty of appeal as a betting medium but personally I feel as though I never enjoy much success in these Ascot cavalry charges (even if there are fewer runners this year) whereas I find I have plenty of success in Haydock handicaps for whatever reason so I’m going to go with the Old Borough Handicap, generally one of my favourite races of the season.

All of the data used below is available through a Geegeez Gold subscription. Click here to get your first 30 days of Geegeez Gold for just £1.

Draw

Only the 12 runners this year so is there still any sort of draw bias?

I’ve only included races run on good to firm to good to soft in this sample. Haydock is prone to being soft or heavy, especially this meeting, but if we include races on softer ground the data might be less relevant as the runners tend to explore different ground in the straight on softer ground. We end up with a small sample but hopefully the data is more reliable.

The win data suggests low is NOT the place to be, but in small samples the win data isn’t particularly helpful. The place percentages have high as the best but low not far behind and middle comes out worst. This data is either slightly misleading or suggests no real bias.

The PRB data is most reliable in small samples as every runner contributes to the data sample. The PRB data for this is in line with the place percentages in that high is best, followed by low, then middle.

If we want to expand our data sample, rather than changing the going parameters in the Draw Analyser, we can instead include extra distances. By including 12f races as well we get this data:

We again see a similar trend here with low draws performing poorly for win purposes, but still bettering middle when it comes to place percentages and PRB. In fact this time around the best PRB score belongs to low, instead of high, for all there is very little in it.

Given the field size isn’t huge here and the data doesn’t really have any strong biases I’m inclined to think that the draw shouldn’t have too much bearing on this.

Pace

Should we ignore pace as well?

We should never ignore pace - even at fair tracks there can be a pace bias due to the individual pace setup of the race.

The majority of winners here tend to be held up but that’s how the majority of runners are ridden. The best win percentage does lie with those held up but the best place percentages are with prominent racers and then front runners. Overall there is very little in the figures here and no strong pattern. This suggests that this course and distance is one of the fairest, both in terms of pace and draw. Barring a very weak early gallop or very strong early gallop in this contest it should be the best horse on the ground that comes out on top.

Old Borough Cup Pace Map

So will there be an individual pace bias in this race?

There isn’t a huge amount of pace in this one which could give those who race nearer the pace a slight advantage. Hochfeld is a habitual front runner whilst The Trader and Noble Masquerade tend to race prominently but other than that the rest seem likely to be delivered late.

Anything that wants further could be inconvenienced the speedier types at this trip could benefit.

The Runners

Here is the field for the 2021 Old Borough Cup, in early odds order.

Global Storm

Had been largely consistent, if not progressive, until finishing a well enough beaten 10th in the Ebor a fortnight ago. This is much easier but that performance won’t be good enough to win this. There is a suspicion that his very best form has come at Newmarket with course form figures 1161212. On top of that he seems a bit better with cut in the ground. He did finish a fair 3rd at Ascot in the Copper Horse Stakes proving he doesn’t ‘need’ Newmarket but that Ascot race has worked out really poorly, not throwing up one subsequent flat winner.

On the subject of form not working out, Global Storm’s 2nd at Newmarket over this trip on his penultimate start hasn’t worked out either, not one of the first nine finishers has won since. He’s definitely short enough in the betting all things considered, for all this isn't the strongest renewal of this race.

Noble Masquerade

With this race possibly suiting speedier types due to a like steady gallop, Noble Masquerade certainly won’t lack for speed having won over 11f this season. He does have to prove his stamina though. He seemed not to stay 14f last season at York, and generally looked to not be staying 12f. He started this season off over an extended mile and ran very well but his form really took off this season when headgear was applied, producing form figures of 2121. In regards to stamina, he rallied okay over 12f at York on his penultimate start when runner up but probably improved again for a slight drop in trip at Windsor when winning by 4 lengths. That was only a 5 runner race and Noble Masquerade has been hit with a 6lbs rise in the weights for that effort.

Given he’s by Sir Percy you’d probably expect him to stay this far, the image above shows the record of Sir Percy progeny in flat handicaps and they have won over as far as 2m1f and only have a marginally worse place percentage at this trip than at 12f but it has to be a concern that Noble Masquerade has been beaten in all five starts over 12f or further whilst he ran so well over an extended mile earlier this season. For all he’s one of the more progressive ones in the line up he’s a risky bet at the price.

Rajinsky

Throws in the occasional bad run but he’s a solid yardstick in these staying events. In fact his last six runs at 2m have resulted in form figures of 221232. However this race isn’t over that distance, it’s over 14f and his form figures over this trip are 12946. Those better runs came off 11lb and 8lb lower marks and he looked in need of further when behind Global Storm at Newmarket in July in that handicap that hasn’t worked out well. Even under ideal conditions he finds it very difficult to get his head in front so whilst he’s normally a reliable place bet at 2m, he has to be taken on over this 14f trip, especially without a strong gallop on the cards.

Rhythmic Intent

Another fairly reliable runner who ran very well last time out at York. He was a staying on 5th over 12f in a race where it favoured those who were up with the pace so to make up the ground he did suggested he’s one to be with very soon. He shaped as though in need of further that day but the ground was probably more of a factor than the distance in how he ran. His form figures on good to firm read 03645 whereas his form on good to soft or soft reads 3321311472027. Those efforts suggest not only is he much better on softer ground, but also that he’s clearly not as well handicapped as he was previously. In fairness though, he’s also been competing in much better races.

He does stay this trip, he won over 13f last season and he was a creditable 4th in this last season but he got his ground last year and was still beaten off a 1lb higher mark. He should prove more reliable at 12f on soft ground before the end of the season for all he could run pretty well here.

Autumn War

He seems to have rediscovered his form again, undoubtedly because the cheekpieces have gone back on for his last few runs. His form figures in this headgear read 11422 and he finished lame for that 4th. He ran very well last time out over 2m and if you watched that run you’d think he needs all of that trip but his last two wins have come over this distance in races that have worked out well at Wolverhampton and he’s been runner up over this trip on turf on his last two attempts.

The negatives are that he can race a bit awkwardly and he probably doesn’t put absolutely everything in. He needs to be delivered late and would have made far more appeal had there been more likely pace on offer. He should run well though at a very fair price. I’d certainly take him to finish ahead of Rajinsky over this trip.

Indianapolis

A frustrating sort who is on a nice mark now but he still seems incapable of taking advantage – or even finishing in the places. He’s finished either 4th, 5th or 6th on his last four runs and looks a bit paceless and a bit tripless. You could argue he’s worth a try over 2m2f but he’s flopped on both tries at this distance. Connections have clearly had similar thoughts as they swap the cheekpieces for a visor on this occasion in an attempt to sharpen him up but he was well beaten on his only run in a visor so it’s difficult to predict a sudden resurgence.

Alright Sunshine

Talented but unpredictable, Alright Sunshine was a narrow 2nd in this two years ago. It’s not clear what his best trip is – he has looked a stayer but then confounded that by winning over 12f earlier this season, albeit in a relatively uncompetitive race. That was his first run in a visor but it didn’t quite work so well second time out when he was midfield in the Northumberland Plate.

If on a going day he has the form to go close in this but he’s not one to completely trust and he’d make more appeal if there was more pace in the field.

Hochfeld

Probably the sole pace angle in the race and he could go well if things go his way. He definitely runs the odd terrible race but most of those come on softer ground. On faster ground he’s generally a more solid proposition and he ran a decent 4th over 2m at York, a trip that probably slightly stretches him, but he had no excuses when slightly disappointing last time out at Newmarket, a course he has previously won at.

Looking at his better performances, four of his five handicap wins have come in single digit fields but he was 2nd of 20 in the Northumberland Plate this season. He has a 50% place strike rate on good to firm which reads well with that going likely this weekend but a few other stats gathered from the Profiler tool are a worry. He’s won 3 out of 4 for Franny Norton but has not placed in five runs for Joe Fanning who rides here. He hasn’t managed a place in 5 runs in September, in fact he’s only placed in 1 of his 11 runs in the final four months of the year during his career.

He’s also seemingly much better on very sharp courses so Haydock might not suit as well as some others. He’s run here four times and has run just about okay on three occasions but was poor on the other attempt. I’d have loved to have been able to make a strong case for him given he should get an uncontested lead, and I’m not completely ruling him out, but he doesn’t look a bet even at double figure odds.

Island Brave

A pretty reliable runner who was just behind Hochfeld last time out over 2m. He’s running like a horse who isn’t badly handicapped but isn’t well handicapped though, generally finishing around the places or just outside. He runs here off a mark of 98 and his last win came off 97 whilst he’s also won off 96, 95 and 93. His last two wins have come over 2m but he has won at this trip, admittedly three years ago. He’d make more appeal over further and this probably isn’t the pace setup to bring about a career best from him so expect to see him staying on well but maybe only finishing into 5th or 6th. If he drops a few pounds he’s one to look out for over 2m on a sound surface.

Nicholas T

An absolute credit to connections and he’s taken his form to a new level this season winning the Northumberland Plate on his first run beyond 13f. That win came off just a 2lb lower mark so he’s not handicapped out of this but he does need to bounce back from some lesser runs. His run in the John Smith’s Cup wasn’t dreadful considering he was poorly placed how it was run, then a mile at Ayr wouldn’t have suited next time out. He went up a full mile in trip last time out at York and ran pretty badly but he was unruly before hand and that can’t be completely held against him.

The form of his wins haven’t really worked out and his form seems to have dropped off but he is capable of bouncing back. I just wonder whether he might be a better bet at Ayr later this month, a course where he has won seven times in the past.

The Trader

All his wins and all but one of his placed efforts have come on good or better ground so the fact that his last five runs have come on ground ranging between soft and good to soft suggest he should improve here on a sounder surface. On his last start on good to firm he won, beating Hochfeld into 2nd, and The Trader is a further 1lb better off here. That is the only time The Trader has gone beyond 1m4f on fast ground so whilst he has to prove himself over the extra furlong here (that win came at 1m5f), he is unexposed as a stayer.

Assuming he bounces back to form on better ground, he should get the run of the race here given he is likely to track Hochfeld. He’s a risky proposition, and it’s a concern he’s done all his winning in small fields, but he’s probably overpriced given the likely pace setup.

Sextant

Formerly quite smart for Sir Michael Stoute, he’s largely struggled for Keith Dalgleish. He did put in a much better effort last time out though here in a small field though, a scenario that probably wouldn’t have played to his strengths. He hadn’t run badly at Royal Ascot behind Global Storm in a race not run to suit in fairness and there is every reason to think he’s getting ready to strike off a mark 7lbs lower than his peak rating for his previous yard.

He used to lead early or race prominently but slow starts this season have meant he’s invariably been held up. If they don’t go very fast early here he’d find it easier to recover from a slow start and maybe race in mid division or even more prominently, especially given a fair few of these will likely take a pull. There are certainly worse bets at this sort of price.

The Verdict

A disappointing field for this with no bombproof looking candidates. Scottish trained trio Alright Sunshine, Nicholas T and Sextant are all capable of outrunning their odds and potentially taking this, especially Sextant who is quite tempting.

Assuming it doesn’t rain hard Rhythmic Intent is best avoided and whilst I think Autumn War isn’t to be underestimated, he’s not the most willing in a finish so he’s possibly one to back place only, for all he’s not a terrible each way bet by any means.

Autumn War appeals as the best value place bet in this but the best value win bet could be THE TRADER. If you excuse his recent form on account of the ground he comes here 2lbs lower than his last winning mark (this season) and he’s likely to be well placed off what will probably be a fairly steady gallop. He’s got the speed for shorter but should stay this far (proven over nearly this trip). He's worth chancing for win purposes but could just as easily bomb out so perhaps isn’t an each way proposition.

Choose Excellency As Value Bet In Live Beverley Contest

Largely smaller fields than we normally get on a Saturday and for me, the race of most interest is the Silver Cup at Beverley, due off at 2.05pm. This is a 10f handicap for 3yos only. The weather forecast looks dry so this race should be run on ground the fast side of good.

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Pace

The draw shouldn’t have much of an impact here given the small field but there is every reason to think pace will still be a very important factor.

There are some fairly strong pace biases at Beverley over shorter trips and even at this 10f distance there is still a bias towards those ridden nearer the pace.

We have a reliable sample size here in smaller fields and the data shows that early leaders have a 24% win strike rate and 51.2% place percentage. That’s some way clear of the 14.04% win percentage and 36.09% place percentage for prominent racers and the figures for mid division and held up make for even worse reading. There is clearly a strong bias towards early pace over this course and distance.

Unless there is likely to be a strong early gallop in this race then those that race nearer the speed should certainly be marked up. The pace map will tell us more about this.

Pace Map

Here is the pace map for this race.

The two Mark Johnston runners are likely to dominate early in this, both tending to enjoy leading. It’s possible they could take each other on and set this up for something a bit more patiently ridden but given they are from the same stable you’d imagine team tactics will be agreed and they’ll perhaps dispute the lead at a reasonable pace with no other likely front runners in here.

The majority of the rest of the field tend to be patiently ridden. Life On The Rocks was prominent very early last time out but soon lost place and was in a distant last place after a few furlongs.

No Recollection is tactically versatile so his early position is probably most difficult to predict out of the whole field.

Jockey Course Record

Given tactics are likely to be so important in this race it’s worth taking a look at jockey performance at Beverley from the past five years.

The top jockey in terms of A/E and IV is Stefano Cherchi. He’s not the most experienced around here but he’s clearly adapted well to the course and he seems a good jockey booking for Farhan. The only jockey who has had fewer rides here is Tom Marquand but he has ridden a winner here before.

Ben Curtis has ridden more winners here than any of the other jockeys in the past five years. He’s closely followed by Paul Hanagan but that pair have clearly also had the most opportunities.

Paddy Mathers and P J Mcdonald have seemingly underperformed which could be a concern for Life On The Rocks and also the well fancied Barn Owl.

The Runners

Here’s a look at the seven runners, in early odds order.

Barn Owl

Looked like a return to further would suit on his penultimate start at Sandown so it was perhaps a little disappointing he could ‘only’ manage second place at Ripon last time out in a five runner race. In fairness the ground was probably softer than ideal on that occasion and he's worth another try at that distance.

He’s still lightly raced, has finished 2nd in both handicap starts to date and gave 5lbs and a short head to a runner now rated 85 in a novice race earlier this season meaning he looks well handicapped off 84 here but there is a suspicion this trip might be on the short side for him. First time cheekpieces go on which may sharpen him up but he’s probably not one to take a shortish price about.

Titian

William Haggas won this last year with the smart Ilaraab (also had the runner up two years ago) and he bids to repeat that feat with seasonal debutant Titian. He shed his maiden tag in September in a Newcastle novice and followed that up with a respectable third in a Doncaster nursery off a 1lb lower mark. That nursery form has worked out respectably enough so there is every chance he begins his 3yo campaign on a good mark but there is an issue.

Titian ran well on racecourse debut on soft ground and followed that up with a disappointing effort on fast ground at Goodwood, well beaten at 9/4. He won on the all weather and then ran well in his nursery race on good to soft. The evidence points to him being better on softer ground, just like his dam was. On faster ground here, off an absence, he's opposable.

Farhan

He's more exposed than many of these but he’s run to a fair level of form so far. He won last year at the fifth attempt, taking a 10f novice at Pontefract on soft ground like a horse with a future over staying trips. Given that effort he put in a very encouraging seasonal reappearance at Salisbury on good ground, going down by just a short head to No Recollection, who reopposes here 3lbs better off.

That run again suggested Farhan may be better over further, although he would have won on that day had he not made a mess of the start (missed the break by several lengths). A step up to 12f failed to bring about improvement next time at York though. He ran a fair race in 4th in a warm handicap, possibly finding the fastish ground slightly against him.

He missed the next 83 days but put in a good return at Sandown three weeks ago, finishing runner up back down at this trip. He showed a little more early speed that day, perhaps because he was running on the slowest ground he had encountered all season, and got within a neck of the winner. He’ll win a race before the season is out on testing ground over 10f or even over 12f but he is likely to find things happening too quickly here assuming the ground is faster than good.

Life On The Rocks

Richard Fahey has won this twice in the past five years and he’s solely represented by Life On The Rocks here. All three of his runs last year were at a mile, on fast ground, for Kevin Ryan. He ended the season with a 2nd, beaten less than a length, by Tribal Art, who won just this week off a mark of 82, making Life On The Rocks’ mark of 76 looks fairly lenient, especially as he looked like he’d improve as a 3yo over further throughout last season.

He didn’t reappear this year until two weeks ago, having moved stables in the interim, but once again ran well in defeat finishing 3rd off this mark. He was last of all after a couple of furlongs despite breaking well but flew home late. If he didn’t handle the track then that was an excellent run off a lay off. If he’s a bit quirky now and doesn’t give his all early on then he’s going to struggle around here. If he’s able to hold a handy position this time around he could run very well but there are a few unknowns.

March Law

The most lightly raced runner in the field and another that hasn’t run this season. Ben Curtis has ridden the winner of this race for the past two years and he’s booked for the ride. He was a good 2nd to Battleground in the Chesham Stakes last year at Royal Ascot, with that runner winning a Group 2 on his next start. March Law followed that up winning a soft ground novice at just 2/9, scrambling home by a nose in a two runner race.

He’s likely to be advantaged by the run of the race here but he’s obviously had an issue or two and the fact that his best form has come on soft ground is another concern. Maybe one to monitor in the betting, especially in relation to his stablemate.

No Recollection

Handicapped to finish ahead of Farhan on the bare form of their meeting earlier this season but given Farhan started very slowly that day that’s probably not the case. His form has tailed off since then so it’s probably no surprise that connections have had him gelded since his latest disappointment. Given he’s trained by Alan King, that decision may have also been made with a hurdling career in mind.

His early season handicap form would give him a fair chance here, he was 3rd to Mohaafeth in April, receiving just 6lbs from a runner that has subsequently rated 27lbs higher. His run style may or may not be an issue here. He led early when beating Farhan but he’s often been held up too. On his last two tries at this trip he has led and tracked the pace so there is a good chance he’s prominent early.

Mr Excellency

The field is completed by Mr Excellency, a second runner for Mark Johnston. He won his first two starts at this trip, making all in both, before perhaps finding softer ground against him at Glorious Goodwood. A 2lb rise for his most recent win certainly shouldn’t have been enough for him to be beat 23 lengths on his next start.

He’s still unbeaten at this trip on fast ground and his first win over this distance worked out pretty well. The runner up won on his next start, the 3rd met trouble in running and found a sedate gallop against him on his next start but still ran creditably and the 4th has finished 2nd since (this week). He’s 6lbs higher here which is fair and he proved that run was no fluke when following up next time, albeit in a very small field.

The Verdict

Barn Owl probably wants further, Titian and Farhan probably want softer, as may March Law. Two of those are also returning from layoffs. This suggests there might be a bit of value lurking lower down in this race, especially with a potential pace bias looking likely.

Life On The Rocks looks fairly treated and could/should improve on his latest outing. If he finds himself in last place after a couple of furlongs again though it will probably be curtains for him so he’s probably just one to watch, or to back in running if well placed after a few furlongs.

No Recollection isn’t out of this if bouncing back to form after a gelding operation but it’s possible he ends up being held up by choice and he does need to return to his earlier season form. He’s not ruled out but is risky.

MR EXCELLENCY also comes with some risk after his last run but it’s entirely possible that effort was solely down to the ground and his yard’s runners often have no problem bouncing back to form after a poor run. If leading he could get a big advantage here – you’d have to think the stable instructions will be for the two Johnston runners NOT to cut each other’s throats at the head of affairs early on. Assuming he doesn’t go off too hard he looks far too big a price as the outsider of the field.

It might be a slight concern that Ben Curtis would appear to have chosen the stablemate but it’s worth noting Connor Beasley is 3 from 7 when riding for Mark Johnston at Beverley. Curtis on the other hand is just 2 from 9.

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