Sat TV Trends: 15th May 2021

After a week at York, the ITV cameras head to Newbury this Saturday to cover four races including the Lockinge Stakes, while they are also showing three contests from Newmarket – As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the big race trends and tips……

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – BetVictor Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

14/16 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
12/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Drawn in stall 3
3/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

Note: The 2020 running was staged at Windsor

 

2.25 - Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

16/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/17 – Drawn 4 or lower
12/17 – Had run at Newbury before
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
11/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
10/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
8/17 – Aged 4 years-old
6/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won last time out
3 of the last 12 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.00 - BetVictor London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

16/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/17 – Rated 90 or lower
13/17 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

 

3.35 - Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Won over a mile before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group One race before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Having their first run of the season
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
5/17 – Godolphin owned
4/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Won by a mare
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/17 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/3

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

14/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
12/14 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
12/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/14 – Favourites placed in the top three
12/14 – Had won over 1m or further before
11/14 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Draw 1,2 or 3
9/14 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/14 – US-bred winners
4/14 – Godolphin-owned winners
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained John Gosden
3/14 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

16/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won only once before
11/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/17 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
10/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 6 winners)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Ridden by Dane O’Neill
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

3.15 – Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times before
14/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
13/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
11/17 – Carried 8-12 or more
11/17 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/17 – Rated between 91-96
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/17 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by a mare/filly
3/17 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/17 – Trained by Richard Fahey
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-8
9 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

York TV Trends: Fri 14th May 2021

We’ve got all the trends that matter ahead of the LIVE ITV races from the third day (Fri) of the York Dante Meeting, with the Group Two Yorkshire Cup the feature contest today.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.40 – Langleys Solicitors EBF Stallions Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
13/15 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Won last time out
11/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winners from stall 9
6/15 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 9 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 12 winners
2019 Winner: Good Vibes (10/1)

 

2.10 – Oaks Farm Stables Fillies´ Stakes (Registered As The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed) Cl1 1m ITV4

14/14 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
14/14 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
11/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
10/14 – Placed 5th or better last time out
9/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
7/14 – Horses from stall 1 placed
7/14 – Raced at either Newmarket (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/14 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2019 Winners: Magnetic Charm (7/1)

 

2.40 – Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Exchange Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

18/18 – Aged 7 or younger
17/18 – Had run over 1m2f before
15/18 – Didn’t win their last race
14/18 – Came from stall 5 or higher
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f before
13/18 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won by a 4 year-old (including 7 of the last 12 years)
9/18 – Finished third or better last time out
6/18 – Had run at York before
6/18 – Won by the favourite
3/18 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor (2007, 2008, 2009)
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/18 – Won by trainer John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
12 of the last 14 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2019 Winner: UAE Prince (15/8)

 

 

3.10 – Matchbook ‘Best Value’ Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

16/16 – Came from stall 7 or lower
15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
15/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or older
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/16 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/16 – Had run at York before
8/16 – Horses from stall 7 placed in the top 3
7/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/16 – Came from stall 4 or 7
7/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Stradivarius has won the last two runnings
2019 Winner: Stradivarius (4/5 fav)

 

4.15 – Yorkshire Equine Practice Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 5f ITV4

9/9 – Won between 1-2 times before
8/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/9 – Had won over 5f before
7/9 – Unplaced favourites
7/9 – Rated between 78-87 (inc)
7/9 – Returned 8/1 or bigger
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
6/9 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
6/9 – Drawn in stalls 8 or higher
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Had run at York before
3/9 – Ran at Ripon last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by David O’Meara
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 12.5/1

 

 

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Lockinge Stakes Trends

The Lockinge Stakes is a Group One race staged at Newbury racecourse and run over a distance of 1 mile.

First run in 1958 the contest is for 3 year-olds and older horses and has been won 4 times in the last 10 years by the Richard Hannon yard. In recent years the race has also been dominated by 4 year-olds, with 12 of the last 17 runnings going to horses in that age group, while 14 of the last 17 winners hailed from the first three in the betting.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners of the race, plus are on-hand with all the key ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 15th May.

 

Recent Lockinge Stakes Winners

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2019 – MUSTASHRY (9/1)
2018 - RHODODENDRON (10/3 fav)
2017 - RIBCHESTER (7/4 fav)
2016 – BELARDO (8/1)
2015 – NIGHT OF THUNDER (11/4 jfav)
2014 – OLYMPIC GLORY (11/8 fav)
2013 – FARHH (10/3)
2012 – FRANKEL (2/7 fav)
2011 – CANFORD CLIFFS (4/5 fav)
2010 – PACO BOY (8/11 fav)
2009 – VIRTUAL (6/1)
2008 – CREACHADOIR (3/1 fav)
2007 – RED EVIE (8/1)
2006 – PEERESS (4/1)
2005 – RAKTI (7/4 fav)
2004 – RUSSIAN RHYTHM (3/1 fav)
2003 – HAWK WING (2/1 fav)

 

Lockinge Stakes Betting Trends

17/17 – Won over a mile before
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won a Group One race before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/17 – Winning favourites
10/17 – Having their first run of the season
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
5/17 – Godolphin owned
4/17 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Won by a mare
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 8 times in all)
1/17 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/3

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 8th May 2021

More LIVE ITV Racing this Saturday as the cameras head to Haydock to take in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, plus they are also at Ascot and Lingfield.

At Ascot, there are three LIVE ITV races that include the Victoria Cup, while it's Derby and Oaks Trials Day at Lingfield.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the LIVE races covered with our key trends and stats.

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

3.10 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

17/17 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
17/17 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
16/17 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
14/17 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 10-8 or less
9/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
9/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
4/17 – Trained by Evan Williams (4 of the last 7 runnings)
3/17 – Ran at Ayr last time out
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 14 winners returned 16/1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

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1.55 – Tote+ Exclusively At Tote.Co.UK British EBF Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

14/14 – Failed to win last time out
14/14 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
12/14 – Had won over a mile before
12/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
10/14 – Aged 4 years-old
9/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/14 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
8/14 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
8/14 – Rated between 82-87
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/1

2.30 - Tote+ Pays More At Tote.Co.Uk Buckhounds Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f ITV4

12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Had won 3 or more times before
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Had raced at Ascot before
8/15 – Winning favourites (inc co or joint)
8/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
7/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
5/15 – Raced within the last 3 weeks
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
The last 12 winners ALL came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1

Note: The 2020 race was staged at Newmarket

 

3.40 – tote+ Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f  ITV4

15/17 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had won no more than 3 times
13/17 – Had won over 7f before
12/17 – Carried 8-10 or less
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had run at Ascot before (5 winners)
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 11 years
2/17 – Trained by David Elsworth (2 of last 5)
The last 7 winners came from a double-figure draw
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/1

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

2.15 - Novibet Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

15/17 – Had won no more than once before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had no more than 3 career runs
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/17 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
9/17 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
9/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Having first run of the season
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
4/17 – Winners from stall 5
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
4/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

2.50 – Novibet Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4 

18/18 – Had won no more than 3 times
15/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/18 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (1 winner, Anthony Van Dyck, 2019)
14/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished 4th or better last time out
13/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
High Rise (1998) and Anthony Van Dyck (2019) were the last winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby

 

3.25 - Novibet Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4

14/14 – Aged 5 or younger
12/14 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
12/14 – Won between 1-4 times before
11/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/14 – Had won over 7f before
9/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Irish-bred
7/14 – Drawn in stall 3 (4) or 7 (3)
7/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Non UK-trained winners
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/14 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
3/14 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 11 winners returned double-figures in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 8/1

 

4.00 – Download The Novibet App Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7 1/2f ITV4

Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Rated between 85 – 90
3/3 – Carried 9-2 or more
3/3 – Won at least twice before
3/3 – Had won over at least 7f before
3/3 – Had run at the track before
3/3 – Aged between 4-6 (inc)
2/3 – Ran at Haydock last time out
2/3 – Ran in the last 2 weeks
2/3 – Carried 9-7 in weight
2/3 – Trained by Richard Hannon
1/3 – Winning favourite

Chester Cup Trends

The Chester Cup, run at Chester Racecourse over 2m2f, is the feature race of their three-day May Meeting (5th-7th) – Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and highlights some key betting trends and stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year the race will be run on Friday 7th May 2021.

Did you know ? Since 1975 we've only had 4 winning Chester Cup favourites win the race

 

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Recent Chester Cup Winners

2020 – No Race
2019 – Making Miracles (16/1)
2018 – Magic Circle (8/1)
2017 - Montaly (16/1)
2016 – No Heretic (11/1)
2015 – Trip To Paris (10/1)
2014 – Suegioo (10/1)
2013 – Address Unknown (12/1)
2012 – Il De Re (10/1)
2011 – Overturn (11/2)
2010 – Mamlook (7/1 fav)
2009 – Daraahem (7/1)
2008 – Bulwark (33/1)
2007 – Greenwich Meantime (14/1)
2006 – Admiral (28/1)
2005 – Anak Pekan (16/1)
2004 – Anak Pekan (2/1 fav)
2003 – Hugs Dancer (9/1)
2002 – Fantasy Hill (8/1)

Chester Cup Betting Trends

17/18 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
15/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/18 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/18 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
12/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/18 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/18 – Carried 9-2 or less
12/18 – Had raced within the last 2 months
12/18 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
11/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Favourites were unplaced
8/18 – Irish bred
4/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/18 – Had won at the track before
3/18 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
3/18 – Won their previous race
2/18 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/18 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 12/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Key Chester Cup Stats

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 7 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 10 winners came from NH yards
3 of the last 8 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 12 winners

What do the stats say?

Age – In 2016, we saw an 8 year-old land the race, but since 1986 all bar that winner were aged 7 or younger. In more recent years, 17 of the last 18 winners were aged 7 or younger too, while 13 of the last 18 successful horses were aged 5, 6 or 7. That said, you certainly can’t rule out the 4 year-olds, with the last winner in 2019 – Making Miracles – this age, while we’ve had two 4 year-olds go in since 2015. In short, it’s probably best to avoid the older horses (8+) in the race!

Recent Form – With a massive 12 of the last 18 winners having finished unplaced last time out, then don’t be too worried if your fancy heads here without some 1’s, 2’s or 3’s next to it’s name. But having winning form over at least 2m on the flat in the past is something to look for, while having a run within the last two months is another plus – 12 of the last 18 winners ticked this trend.

Weight – Being a handicap, then it’s always worth looking back at past weight stats. 12 of the last 18 winners carried 9st 2lbs or less, but with the last three winners and 5 of the last 7 winners carrying 9st or more, then this weight trend might be taking a slight turn in the other direction. Since 1981, only seven winners have carried more than 9st 2lb to victory. However, with 13 of the last 18 winners rated between 93-99, which is, of course, closely linked with the weight stat, could be another angle into the race.

Draw – Most of us know that Chester is one of the tightest flat tracks around, so even over this longer 2m2f trip then the draw can play a big part. It’s normally a race that’s well contested too – in 2019 there were 15 runners – so having a decent early pitch can often be the difference between winning and losing. This is backed up with 12 of the last 18 winners drawn from stalls 7 or lower, but the 2019 winner – Making Miracles – did defy this stat by winning from stall 16.

Favourites – It’s not been a great race for favourite backers – since 1975, we’ve only had four winning market leaders and only two in the last 18 runnings. The averaging winning SP in the last 18 years has been 12/1 and with 11 of the last 18 winners priced 10/1 or shorter, then outside the favourite you generally don’t have to look too far down the market to find the winner.

Trainers – I’ve already mentioned this is a race the NH yards often target – in the last 10 renewals we’ve seen four winners from jumping stables take the first prize, while in terms of other yards to note, the Richard Fahey and Ian Williams camps have both won the race twice each since 2007. It’s also a race that popular owner – Dr Marwan Koukash – loves to throw a few arrows at. His grey silks have been responsible for four of the last 12 winners and he’s sure to have some targeted at the race again this year.

 

 

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Chester May Meeting Trends and Tips: Fri 7th May 2021

Here at GeeGeez we give you all the key trends and stats from the LIVE ITV races on the final day of the Chester May Meeting this Friday 7th May 2021 – with the meetings feature – The Chester Cup – run on this day too.  

 

Chester Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – tote+Placepots Pay More Earl Grosvenor Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV4

16/18 - Didn’t win their last race
15/18 - Had a previous run that season
15/18 - Finished unplaced last time out
14/18 - Had won over this trip (7 1/2f) before
14/18 - Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/18 - Had run before at Chester
13/18 - Carried 8-10 or more
12/18 - Favourites placed
10/18 - Came from stall 5 or higher
9/18 - Horses placed from stall 1
8/18 - Won by a 4 year-old
5/18 - Won by the favourite
4/18 – Winning horses from stall 1
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
Baraweez won the race in 2018

 

2.15 – Melodi Media Huxley Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

17/18 – Aged either a 4 or 5 year-old
15/18 – Had won over 1m2f before
14/18 – Had a previous race that season
13/18 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd in this race
13/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Winners from between stalls 1-4
10/18 – Failed to win their previous race
9/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Returned 6/4 or shorter in the betting
6/18 – Had raced at Chester before
5/18 – Ran in the John Porter at Newbury before winning this
5/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
Forest Ranger won the race in 2018 and 2019

 

2.45 – tote+ Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f147y ITV4

17/18 – Aged 7 years-old or younger
15/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
13/18 – Officially rated between 93-99
13/18 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-olds
12/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/18 – Won from stall 7 or lower
12/18 – Carried 9-2 or less
12/18 – Had raced within the last 2 months
12/18 – Had won previously over at least 2m on the flat
11/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Favourites were unplaced
8/18 – Irish bred
4/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/18 – Won by owner Dr Marwan Koukash
3/18 – Had won at the track before
3/18 – Ran at Aintree over hurdles last time out
3/18 – Won their previous race
2/18 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by Ian Williams
2/18 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 12/1

Key Chester Cup Stats

The race has seen repeat winners three times since 1997
Since 1975 we’ve only seen 4 winning favourites
The Hills yard took the race in 1980, 1999, 2001 and 2009
Since 1975 all winners have been aged 8 or younger
Since 1975 there have only been three winners aged 8 years-old
Since 1981 only 7 winners have carried more than 9-2 to victory
4 of the last 10 winners came from NH yards
3 of the last 8 winners returned 10/1
Dr Marwan Koukash has owned 4 of the last 12 winners

 

3.15 – Boodles Conditions Stakes Cl3 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

7/7 – Drawn in stalls 3-8 (inc)
6/7 – Carried 8-13 or more in weight
6/7 – Had won at Chester before
5/7 – Winners from stalls 3 (3) or 6 (2)
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Aged 5 years-old
4/7 – Rated 100+
3/7 – Winning favourites
3/7 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
2/7 – Ridden by Richard Kingscote
0/7 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 6/1

 

3.45 – Retraining Of Racehorses Handicap Cl2 1m2 1/2f ITV4

11/11 – Won at least twice before
10/11 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
10/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
10/11 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/11 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Rated between 90-95
8/11 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
4/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute

Sun TV Trends: 2nd May 2021

Another cracking day of ITV Racing action this Sunday as the cameras head to Newmarket to take in four more races that are spearheaded by the 1000 Guineas.

As always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats to help you find the best profiles of past winners.

 

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Back And Lay On Betfair Handicap (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

15/16 – Had won at least twice before
15/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Finished in the top 5 in their last race
12/16 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
12/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16  - Had had a recent run that season
7/16 – Had run at Newmarket before (Rowley)
5/16 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
1/16 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

2.25 Betfair Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

10/10 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/10 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Winners drawn between stalls 2-8 (inc)
9/10 – Won just once before
8/10 – Had between 1-3 runs before
7/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of last 7)
4/10 – Winning favourites
3/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (all for John Gosden)
2/10 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

 

 

3.00 – Betfair Dahlia Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m1f ITV

16/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
15/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
15/16 – Had won over 1m (or further) before
14/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Won this on first run of the season
8/16 – Had run at the course before
7/16 – Ran at either Kempton (4) or Newmarket (3) last time out
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
6/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/16 – Ran at Kempton last time out
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
2/16 – French-trained winners (2 of the last 6)
10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)

 


3.40 – Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/19 – Had won between 2-3 times before
14/19 – Had won a Group race before
13/19 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
12/19 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
11/19 – Won their previous race
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
9/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/19 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
8/19 – Favourites unplaced
8/19 – Irish-trained winners
7/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/19 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/19 – Previous Group One winners
5/19 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/19 – Won by a US bred horse
4/19 – Won by the favourite
4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – French-trained winners
3/19 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016, Love 2020)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 13/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained six winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020)

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 1st May 2021

It’s day one of Guineas Weekend at Newmarket this Saturday, while the ITV cameras are heading to Goodwood & Thirsk.

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Suffolk Stakes Cl2 1m1f ITV

14/15 – Had won at least twice before
14/15 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/15 – Priced 12/1 or shorter
13/15 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
13/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Returned between 9/1 and 12/1 in the betting
10/15 – Rated between 90 and 96
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
7/15 – Having their first run of the season
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Irish bred
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 - Winning favourites
Just 1 winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 12 runnings

 

2.20 – Betfair Palace House Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

16/18 – Had won over 5f before
16/18 – Won 3 or more times before
15/18 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/18 – Had run at Newmarket before
14/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/18 – Aged 5 or younger
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Rated between 108 and 114
10/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/18 – Trained by Bryan Smart
Far Above won the race in 2020 (run in June)
Mabs Cross won the race in 2018 and 2019
Just 2 placed horses from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 2-7 (inc)

 

3.00 – Betfair Exchange Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

17/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Had won between 3-5 times in their career
14/17 – Won over 1m4f+ before
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or more
12/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/17 – Aged 4 years-old
10/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Rated 112 or higher
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Had won a Group race before
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Having their first run of the season
6/17 – Aged 5 years-old
6/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/17 – Returned 7/4 in the betting
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
2/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Andre Fabre

3.40 – Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m ITV

19/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/19 – Had won over at least 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Group race before
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
15/19 – Won last time out
14/19 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
14/19 – Having their first run of the season
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/19 – Had won over a mile before
7/19 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/19 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/19 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

Goodwood Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – MansionBet Best Odds Guaranteed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV

9/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/9 – Yet to race at the track
8/9 – Won 2 or more times before
7/9 – Winners from stalls 1 or 5
7/9 – Horse from stall 1 placed in the top 3
7/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Horse from stall 5 placed in the top 3
6/9 – Aged 4 years-old
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
5/9 – Horse from stall 7 placed in the top 3
5/9 – Won over a mile before
4/9 – Winners from stall 1
3/9 – Ran a Newmarket last time out
2/9 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 13/2

 

Thirsk Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – Cliff Stud Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV

9/9 – Aged 6 or younger
9/9 – Won at least twice before
9/9 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
8/9 – Drawn in stalls 7 or higher
8/9 – Rated between 87-94 (inc)
8/9 – Didn’t win last time out
8/9 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/9 – Won over at least 1m before
7/9 – Unplaced last time out
7/9 – Won between 2-4 times
6/9 – Winners from a double-figure draw
5/9 – Had run at the track before (3 won)
2/9 – Winning favourites

Note: The 2018 running was staged at Wetherby

 

 

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2000 Guineas Trends and Stats

The Qipco-sponsored 2,000 Guineas is a race run over 1m and is the first of the five English Classics to be run each season - with the 1,000 Guineas run the following day. Both races are staged at Newmarket racecourse, and for 3 year-olds only, the race is also seen as an early-season guide to that year’s Epsom Derby – the last horses to land both races in the same season were Sea The Stars (2009) and Camelot (2012).

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at past winners and highlights the key trends and stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 1st May 2021

Did you know? 12 of the last 19 2,000 Guineas winners came from the top 3 in the betting?

 

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Past 2,000 Guineas Winners

2020 – Kameko (10/1)
2019 – Magna Grecia (11/2)
2018 - Saxon Warrior (3/1)
2017 - Churchill (6/4 fav)
2016 – Galileo Gold (14/1)
2015 – Gleneagles (4/1 fav)
2014 – Night Of Thunder (40/1)
2013 – Dawn Approach (11/8 fav)
2012 – Camelot (15/8 fav)
2011 – Frankel (1/2 fav)
2010 – Makfi (33/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (8/1)
2008 – Henrythenavigator (11/1)
2007 – Cockney Rebel (25/1)
2006 – George Washington (6/4 fav)
2005 – Footstepsinthesand (13/2)
2004 – Haafhd (11/2)
2003 – Refuse to Bend (9/2)
2002 – Rock of Gibraltar (9/1)

Note: The 2020 running was staged in June (Covid-19)

Key 2,000 Guineas Trends & Stats

19/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/19 – Had won over at least 7f before
17/19 – Had won a Group race before
17/19 – Had won between 2-5 times before
15/19 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
15/19 – Won last time out
14/19 – Winning distance – less than 2 lengths
14/19 – Having their first run of the season
12/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/19 – Placed favourites
12/19 – Had won just 2 or 3 times in their career before
11/19 – Won by an Irish-based yard
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien (10 wins in total)
8/19 – Had won over a mile before
7/19 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 3
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/19 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (2 winners)
4/19 – Won the Dewhurst Stakes the previous season
3/19 – Ran at the Curragh last time out
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1

Other 2,000 Guineas Facts

- Aidan O’Brien has won the race in 1998, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
- Frankie Dettori rode the winner in 1996, 1999 & 2016

 

 

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Punchestown Festival – Big Race Trends

A huge week of Irish racing ahead with the 5-day Punchestown Festival (27th April-1st May). Like all big race meetings, we've got all the main trends and stats for the key races through the week – hopefully, these to help narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners……………….

 

DAY ONE – Tuesday 27th April 2021

 4.15 – EcOMM merchant solutions Champion Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m 1/2f

8 of the last 15 runnings went to the favourite
8 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 15 recent winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
8 of the last 15 returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
No British-trained winner for 21 years (18 runners)
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners have only followed-up 4 times
14 of the last 15 were aged either 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins won the prize in 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 & 2019
Trainer Noel Meade has won the race in 2002, 2005, 2006 & 2008
Trainer Edward O’Grady has won the race in 2003, 2007 & 2011
16 of the last 20 winners came 1st or 2nd last time out

 

5.25 – william hill Champion Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) Winner €86,800 2m

6 of the last 17 runnings went to the favourite
16 of the last 21 winners came from the first three in the betting
French breds have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
14 of the last 18 returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10 of the last 18 had previous won at the track
All of the last 18 winners had won before over 2m
14 of the last 18 came 1st or 2nd last time out
12 of the last 18 were Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 18 were aged 9 or younger
5 of the last 15 finished unplaced that season’s Champion Chase at Cheltenham
12 of the last 17 winners ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
7 of the last 17 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 & 2009
Willie Mullins won the race in 2010, 2015, 2018 & 2019

 

DAY TWO – Wednesday 28th April 2021

 

5.55 – LADBROKES Punchestown Gold Cup (Grade 1) (5yo+) 3m 1/2f

Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

Your first 30 days for just £1

14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
13/17 – Irish-trained winners
12/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/17 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
4/17 - Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/2
8 of the last 15 favourites have won
Nine of the last 12 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
8 of the last 21 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase


6.30 – ITM – Supporting Irish store sales Champion I.N.H Flat Race (Grade 1) (4-7yo) 2m

3 winning favourites in the last 15 years (1 joint)
14 of the last 16 were aged 5 or older
The Cheltenham Champion Bumper has produced 14 winners since 1992
14 of the last 28 winners finished 6th or better in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Cheltenham)
27 of the last 28 winners had raced 2 or more times before
Not many mares have run in the race, but 5 have won it since 1994
Trainer Noel Meade won the race in 2004, 2006, 2007
Trainer Willie Mullins won the race in 2008, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018 & 2019
The Irish have won 14 of the last 16 runnings

 

DAY THREE – Thursday 29th April 2021

 

4.50 – Mongey communications La Touche Cup Cross Country Chase (5yo+) 4m1f

6 winning favourites in the last 14 years (3 join/co)
Trainer Enda Bolger has won 13 of the last 21 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 14 carried 12-2 or more
11 of the last 14 winners were aged 9 or older
6 of the last 14 winners ran in the race 12 months ago
20 of the last 25 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
10 of the last 14 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race
Ballyboker Bridge won this race in 2019

 

5.25 - Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) (4yo+) 3m


Past Ladbrokes.com Champion Stayers Hurdle Winners

2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (16/1)
2018 – FAUGHEEN (11/2)
2017 – UNOWHATIMEANHARRY (4/1)
2016 – ONE TRACK MIND (10/1)
2015 – JEZKI (5/2)
2014 – JETSON (20/1)
2013 – QUEVEGA (6/4 fav)
2012 – QUEVEGA (11/10 fav)
2011 – QUEVEGA (8/11 fav)
2010 – QUEVEGA (5/2 fav)
2009 – FIVEFORTHREE (5/4 fav)
2008 – BLAZING BAILEY (10/3 fav)
2007 – REFINEMENT (16/1)
2006 – ASAIN MAZE (8/13 fav)
2005 – CARLYS QUEST (25/1)
2004 – RHINESTONE COWBOY (5/2)
2003 – HOLY ORDERS (6/1)


Ladbrokes Champion Stayers Hurdle Betting Trends

14/17 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival earlier that season
13/17 – Placed in the top three last time out
12/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Aged 8 or younger
10/17 – Irish trained winners
9/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
7/17 – Ran in the Aintree Hurdle last time out
5/17 – Ran in the OLBG Mares’ Hurdle last time out
Only one Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) winner in the last 20 runnings
14 of the last 17 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The market leader has won 9 of the last 19 runnings
11 of the last 18 winners won their previous race
11 of the 23 runnings have been won by a British-trained horse
8 of the last 16 winners ran at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting last time out
11 of the last 17 winners had won a Grade One over 3m+ before

 

6.35 - Ryanair Novice Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+) 2m

6 winning favourites in the last 9 runnings
13 of the last 14 winners returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or older (only 5 of the last 23 aged 6 or younger)
9 of the last 14 were aged either 7 or 8 years-old
22 of the last 24 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
8 of the last 14 winners ran in the Arkle Chase (Cheltenham) that same season
UK-based trainers have won 4 of the last 11 times they have had runners
14 of the last 16 winners had run at least 4 times over fences previously
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019

 

 

DAY FOUR – Friday 30th April 2021

5.25 – PADDY POWER CHAMPION HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

8 of the last 15 favourites (2 joint) have won
7 of the last 13 winners won last time out
12 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
13 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or older
12 of the last 21 winners ran in that season’s Champion Hurdle
The current Champion Hurdler is yet to finish out of the top two when running
12 of the last 15 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016 & 2017
6 of the last 9 winners returned odds-on in the betting
13 of the last 15 winners were Irish-trained

6.00 – ALANNA CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m4f

9 of the last 15 favourites have won
9 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 years-old
13 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Willie Mullins has won 9 of the last 18 runnings
14 of the last 19 winners won last time out
Since 1996 all-bar-two of the winners were aged either 5 or 6 years-old

 

DAY FIVE – Saturday 1st May 2021


4.25 – AES CHAMPION FOUR YEAR-OLD HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2m

6 winning favourites in the last 15 runnings
14 of the last 15 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
Willie Mullins trained the winner in 2006, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 & 2018
12 of the last 14 winners ran in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham)
6 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Spring Juvenile Hurdle
10 of the last 22 runnings went to a British-trained horse
Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

 

 

 

 

 

1000 Guineas Trends and Stats

First run back in 1814, the 1,000 Guineas is a Group One flat race run over 1m just for 3 year-old fillies. The contest is one of the five English Classics and staged at Newmarket racecourse in late April or early May each year.

It’s the second of the five English Classics with the 2,000 Guineas run the day before being the first, while winners of this race often go onto run well in that year’s Epsom Oaks the following month – the last horses to land both races in the same season was Kazzia in 2002 and Minding in 2016.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take into the 2021 renewal – this year run on Sunday 2nd May.

Did you know? 17 of the last 19 1,000 Guineas winners finished in the top three last time out?

 

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Recent 1,000 Guineas Winners

2020 - Love (4/1)
2019 – Hermosa (14/1)
2018 - Billesdon Brook (66/1)
2017 - Winter (9/1)
2016 – Minding (11/10 fav)
2015 – Legatissimo (13/2)
2014 – Miss France (7/1)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/1)
2012 - Homecoming Queen (25/1)
2011 – Blue Bunting (16/1)
2010 – Special Duty (9/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (20/1)
2008 – Natagora (11/4 fav)
2007 – Finsceal Beo (5/4 fav)
2006 – Speciosa (10/1)
2005 – Virginia Waters (12/1)
2004 – Attraction (11/2)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (12/1)
2002 – Kazzia (14/1)

Note: The 2020 running was staged in June (Covid-19)

1,000 Guineas Betting Trends

17/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/19 – Had won between 2-3 times before
14/19 – Had won a Group race before
13/19 – Drawn between 2-13 (inc)
12/19 – Yet to win a race over a mile (or further)
11/19 – Won their previous race
11/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
11/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/19 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
9/19 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/19 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
8/19 – Favourites unplaced
8/19 – Irish-trained winners
7/19 – Had won at Newmarket (Rowley Mile) before
6/19 – Drawn in stalls 7 or 8
6/19 – Previous Group One winners
5/19 – Went onto win the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot
4/19 – Won by a US bred horse
4/19 – Won by the favourite
4/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – French-trained winners
3/19 – Went onto finish fourth in the Epsom Oaks
2/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Kazzia 2002, Minding 2016, Love 2020)
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 2-8 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 13/1

1,000 Guineas Facts

Owner Hamdam Al Maktoum has won the race 5 times (1990, 1991, 1995, 2000 & 2009)
Frankie Dettori has ridden the ridden the winner 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Ryan Moore has ridden the winner 4 times (2012, 2015, 2016, 2020)
Godolphin have won the race 3 times (1998, 2002 & 2011)
Aidan O’Brien has trained six winners, Virginia Waters (2005), Homecoming Queen (2012), Minding (2016), Winter (2017), Hermosa (2019), Love (2020)

 

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Punchestown Gold Cup Trends

Staged at the five-day Punchestown Festival in April the Punchestown Gold Cup is a Grade One contest run over 3m1f.

The race version we see today was first run back in 1999 and since then has been won by some leading names, including Cheltenham Gold Cup winners Imperial Call, Kicking King, War Of Attrition & Don Cossack - while the 2012 Grand National winner, Neptune Collonges, took this twice before he landed the Aintree marathon.

With no race in 2020 due to the Covid situation, the last winner was Kemboy back in 2019.

Did you know – 12 of the last 17 Punchestown Gold Cup winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old, while 13 of the last 17 winners were Irish-trained?

Here at GeeGeez, we take a look back at recent Punchestown Gold Cup winners, plus highlight the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 28th April 2021

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Recent Punchestown Gold Cup Winners

2020 – No race (Covid)
2019 – KEMBOY (13/8 fav)
2018 – BELLSHILL (4/1)
2017 – SIZING JOHN (9/10)
2016 – CARLINGFORD LOUGH (12/1)
2015 – DON COSSACK (5/2)
2014 – BOSTON BOB (5/2 fav)
2013 – SIR DES CHAMPS (2/1 fav)
2012 – CHINA ROCK (20/1)
2011 – FOLLOW THE PLAN (20/1)
2010 – PLANET OF SOUND (14/1)
2009 – NOTRE PERE (15/8 fav)
2008 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (9/10 fav)
2007 – NEPTUNE COLLONGES (8/1)
2006 – WAR OF ATTRITION (4/5 fav)
2005 – KICKING KING (8/11 fav)
2004 – BEEF OF SALMON (5/4 fav)
2003 – FIRST GOLD (7/4 fav)

 

Punchestown Gold Cup Betting Trends

14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
13/17 – Irish-trained winners
12/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
10/17 – Had run in that season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last time out
7/17 – Won last time out
4/17 - Trained by Willie Mullins (4 of the last 7)
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/2
8 of the last 15 favourites have won
Nine of the last 12 Irish-trained favourites have won
Since 1999 only 2 Irish-trained winners hadn’t won at the course before
8 of the last 21 winners had run in that season’s John Durkan Memorial Chase

 

 

 

 

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Sagaro Stakes Trends

Run at Ascot racecourse this Group 3 flat race is staged for horses aged 4 or older and run over a trip of 2m.
We take a look back at recent winners and give you the key trends ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 28th April 2021

 

Recent Sagaro Stakes Winners

2020 – NAYEF ROAD (8/1)
2019 – DEE EX BEE (11/8 fav)
2018 – TORCEDOR (9/4 fav)
2017 – SWEET SELECTION (15/2)
2016 – MIZZOU (11/4)
2015 – MIZZOU (4/1)
2014 – TAC DE BOISTRON (7/2)
2013 – ESTIMATE (2/1 fav)
2012 – COLOUR VISION (9/2)
2011 – ASKAR TAU (4/1)
2010 – ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE (16/1)
2009 – PATKAI (2/5 fav)
2008 – SHIPMASTER (4/1)
2007 – TUNGSTEN STRIKE (9/2)
2006 – COVER UP (4/1)
2005 – ALCAZAR (5/1)
2004 – RISK SEEKER (11/2)
2003 – ALCAZAR (7/2)

Sagaro Betting Trends and Stats

15/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Group race before
12/18 – Rated 108 or higher
11/18 – Had won over at least 2m (flat) before
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
7/18 – Winning distance – ½ or less
4/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Raced at Nottingham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/18 – Went onto win the Ascot Gold Cup (2 of last 8)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/2

Note: The 2012 renewal was staged at Kempton, 2006 & 2005 at Lingfield, while the 2020 was run at Newcastle

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 24th April 2021

It’s Bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park this Saturday while the ITV cameras are also heading to Leicester & Haydock for a couple more races – As always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends ……

 

SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.55 - bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV

Just two previous runnings
No race in 2020 (Covid)
Getaway Trump (Paul Nicholls) 9/2 fav won the race in 2019
Ballymoy (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 13/2 jfav won the race in 2018
2/2 – Winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
2/2 – Winning favourites
2/2 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Harry Fry has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Chris Gordon is just 1 from 26 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Seamus Mullins is just 1 from 31 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 1 from 30 with his hurdlers at the track

2.30 - bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) (for The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 2m6f ITV

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
5/6 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/6 – Irish bred
4/6 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Winning favourites
Owner Diana Whateley won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/2
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won the race in the past too

 

3.05 - bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
12/17 – Rated 160 or higher
12/17 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourite
5/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (inc last 4)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 5 times in all)
4/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville (last 4)
3/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
Altior won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8

 

3.40 - bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

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17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times


HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.50 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Aged 5 or younger
6/7 – Won over 7f in the past
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/7 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
3/7 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
2/7 – Trained by John Quinn
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 36% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.10 – Elusive Bloodstock EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV

11/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Won at least twice in the past
9/11 – Had won over 7f in the past
8/11 – Irish bred winners
8/11 – Last ran 2+ months ago
8/11 – Officially rated 107 or higher
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/11 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/11 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/2

 

 

 

 

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Bet365 Gold Cup Trends

The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with not a single market leader win since Beau took the race in 2000, while it might pay to note that 23 of the last 28 (82%) winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the stats ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Saturday April 24th.

 

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 - STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

 

Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats

17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

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The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

 

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats…………………..

Recent Run – With ALL of the last seventeen winners having raced in the last 63 days then this is certainly a good stating point when we know the final runners. This trend can also be taken a bit further with 10 of the last 17 winners having raced in the last 25 days. Only three of the last 17 winners won their last race, so don’t be too hung up looking for a recent winner, while 9 of the last 17 also finished unplaced in their most recent outing.

Weight – Another big trend here to help whittle down the runners as 16 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight, with 14 of the last 17 having 11st or less on their backs. Since 2007, we’ve only had two winners that won with 11st or more. If we go back a bit further in time then 24 of the last 29 winners (83%) carried less than 11st, while 5 of the last 17 winners took the prize with just 10st – so, even though it doesn’t always apply to these staying races, it’s clear here that those towards the bottom of the handicap have fared better.

Age – The most recent winner in 2019 – Talkischeap – was a 7 year-old when he won the race – 50% of the last six winners have now been aged 7. Plus, by winning this Alan King runner further backed up the trend that’s seen 13 of the last 17 winners aged 9 or younger. Having said that, we have seen three 11 year-olds – Monkerhostin (2008), Church Island (2010) and Tidal Bay (2012) – take the prize. However, 76% of the last 17 winners fitted into the age bracket between 7-9 year-olds and 6 of the last 17 winners were 8 year-olds. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve had just one 6 year-old winner (Bounce Back, 2002) since 1959.

Favourites and Betting – Another huge trend here in recent times has seen this race being a graveyard contest for the favourites – the last winning market leader was in 2000 (Beau). Backed up again in 2019 with the jolly – West Approach – only managing fifth. However, we generally don’t have to look too far away from the favourite to find the winner. The 2019 hero was sent off the 7/1 joint second favourite, while 12 of the last 17 winners returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting and 10 of those came from the top seven in the market.

Trip – It’s no shock that 14 of the last 17 winners of this staying handicap have won previously over at least 3m, but it’s still something to mention in case there are any new kids on the block trying 3m+ for the first time.

Trainers – As already mentioned the Alan King team took this race when it was last run in 2019, but other yards to have on your radar in this race have to be Paul Nicholls, who has four successes to his name – the most recent being in 2015. Nicky Henderson, Peter Bowen, Neil Mulholland and Philip Hobbs are other stables that have got their name on the winners’ hall of fame in recent years too.

 

 

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