Aintree Trends: Fri 9th April 2021

Into the second day of the Aintree Grand National Meeting on Friday 9th April 2021 the ITV cameras are on-hand to take in five more LIVE races.

The Mildmay Novices’ Chase, JLT Melling Chase and the Randox Health Topham Chase are the three feature contests as the 'must-see' action from Liverpool’s premier track continues.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the key stats for the main LIVE ITV races – these will help build-up a better profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

 

 

FRIDAY, 9th April 2021 (ITV/Racing TV)

 

2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

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2019 Winner: FELIX DESJY (7/2)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Jack Kennedy

16/17 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
10/17 – Finished first or second last time out
11/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
7/17 – Had raced on the flat before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 10)
4/17 – Winning favourites
15 of the last 23 (65%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
22 of the last 29 (76%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
Just two Irish winner since 1978 (1 from 25 this century)
10 of the last 20 (50%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

 

2.50pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2019 Winner: LOSTINTRANSLATION (3/1)
Trainer: Colin Tizzard
Jockey: Robbie Power

17/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
14/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
13/17 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/17 – Ran in the RSA Chase last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 2 of last 3)
2/17 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Colin Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 10 of the last 17 runnings between them
16 of the last 23 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (10) years-old
The last 17 winners were either French (7) or Irish (10) bred.
5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
30 of the last 31 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 29 winners had won over at least 3m before
34 of the last 38 (83%) winners had won twice or more over fences
15 of the last 18 (83%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
19 of the last 21 (90%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

 

3.25pm – The Marsh Steeple Chase (Reg as the Melling Chase) Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2019 Winner: MIN (2/1 fav)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: R Walsh

17/17 – Raced within the last 30 days
17/17 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
10/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/17 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
22 of the last 29 (76%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
31 of the last 34 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
23 of the last 29 (79%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 25 (52%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
16 of the last 25 (64%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
22 of the last 29 (76%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
13 of the last 16 (81%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
27 of the last 29 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2019 Winner: CADIUM (8/1)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Paul Townend

16/17 – Raced within the last 34 days
16/17 – Aged 10 or younger
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/17 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/17 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/17 – Unplaced last time out
4/17 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 - Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
4 of the last 6 winners carried 11-1 or more
5 of the last 6 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 6 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 14 (57%) winners raced in last year’s race
10 of the last 14 (71%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
10 of the last 16 (63%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 27 (56%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 3 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just one winner aged 11+ (109 have tried) since 1994

 

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2019 Winner: CHAMP (9/4 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Mark Walsh

15/17 – Had run within the last 35 days
12/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
7/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Favourites that won
2/17 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/17 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (92%)
21 of the last 24 (92%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 27 (78%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 26 (50%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
13 of the last 20 (65%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

 

 

Sat TV Trends: 6th March 2021

We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.

 

NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.15 – BetVictor Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV

9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1

 

1.50 – BetVictor Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.20 – Virgin Bet Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV

7 previous runnings
7/7- Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top 2
6/7 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
4/7 - Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
4/7 – Irish bred

2.55 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV

9 previous runnings
9/9 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/9 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
6/9 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/9 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/9 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Movie Legend won the race in 2019

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3.30 – Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV

16/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/16 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
13/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/16 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/16 – Aged 9 or older
11/16 – From the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Rated 131 or less
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/16 – Winning Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
Captain Chaos won the race in 2020
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017
 

KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1.30 – bet365 Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV

11/12 – Aged 7 or younger
11/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
11/12 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Had raced at Kelso before
6/12 – Irish bred
3/12 – Winning favourite
3/12– Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/12 – Trained by Lucinda Russell

 

2.05 – bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV

No past runnings
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 40% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 25% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Keith Dalgleish has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Richards has a 20% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

2.40 – bet365 Premier Chase (Listed Race) (Gbb Race) Cl1 (5yo+) 2m 7 1/2f) ITV

7/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the course before
6/7 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
5/7 – Placed 4th or better last time out
5/7 – Won over 3m plus in the past
5/7 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/7 – Aged 9 or older
4/7 – Irish bred
4/7 – Rated between 132-140 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/7 – Won by jockey Brian Hughes
3/7 – Winning favourite
Definitely Red (Evs) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 13/2

 

 

3.15 – bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (Handicap Hurdle) (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m

 

9/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Had run in the last 3 months
8/9 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Rated between 138-146
4/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Irish bred
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/9 – Ridden by Brian Hughes
2/9 – Had won at the track before
2/9 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Richards
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/4

 

 

 

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Irish Grand National Trends

Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2021 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday (5th April 2021), while several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

For example, did you know? The 16 of the last 17 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 14 of the last 17 successful horses were Irish-bred. We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 17 renewals, while in 2019, trainer Willie Mullins landed his first Irish Grand National with the 6-year-old Burrows Saint.

Recent Irish Grand National Winners

2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Irish Grand National Betting Trends

16/17 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
16/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Won over at least 3m previously
15/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
14/17 – Irish bred
14/17 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
13/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/17 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
12/17 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – Finished fourth or better last time out
10/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Rated between 130-136
4/17 – Won by an English-based trainer
3/17 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 21/1
Trainer Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
Only two horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

 

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Let’s take a look at some of the key trends………………

Weight – You can start your weight cut-off point at 10st 13lbs or less as 16 of the last 17 winners ticked this trend, but you can also take this a bit further too. With 82% of the last 17 winners having 10st 8lbs or less, then you could whittle down the runners further with this stat, or if you’re feeling a bit braver, then it could pay to note 12 of the last 17 winners (71%) won with just 10st 6lbs or less on their backs.

Recent Run/Form – Having a recent run within the last eight weeks is another trend to have on your side – 16 of the last 17 winners supported this trend, plus 10 of the last 17 ran in the last 4 weeks. The same amount had also won a race over at least 3m in the past, while 10 of the last 17 winners came into the race off a top four finish last time out, but it’s worth pointing out only 3 of the last 17 won their last outing.

Track Form – The most recent winner of the race – Burrows Saint – was having his debut run at Fairyhouse, but in general previous experience of the course is certainly something to look for with 12 of the last 17 successful horses having raced at the track before.

Betting – In the last 17 runnings, the average winning SP has been 20/1 – this tells us to not be afraid to look a bit further down the market for the winner. Yes, the 2019 winner – Burrows Saint – was sent off at the 6/1 favourite, but he was only the third winning market leader since 2003 and we’ve seen 11 of the last 17 jollies finish unplaced. This is further backed up with 13 of the last 17 winners coming from outside the top three in the market and also returning a double-figure price.

Age – Unlike the Aintree Grand National, where horses aged 7 or younger have struggled in recent times, the Irish version has been okay for the younger runners. The most recent winner – Burrows Saint was a 6 year-old when he won in 2019, while 50% of the last six winners have been aged 7 – did you know, the last 7 year-old to land the Aintree Grand National was in 1940! We saw a couple of 10 year-olds win the Irish National in 2012 and 2013, but since 1998 (22 runnings) we’ve had 19 runners aged 9 or younger.

 

 

 

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Greatwood Gold Cup Trends

This Saturday’s Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup is a Handicap Chase staged at Newbury racecourse and is always a hotly-contested event. The race is run over a distance of 2m4f and is currently sponsored by BetVictor, who are also supporting the Greatwood Veterans. It was first run in 2004 and since then has been dominated by top UK National Hunt trainer Paul Nicholls – who has won the race a staggering nine times, including when last run in 2019 with San Benedeto - therefore, anything he runs should be respected.

Note: The 2020 running was abandoned.

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We look back at recent winners of the race and give you all the key trends to take into the 2020 renewal – this year run on Saturday 6th March – for example, did you know 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or younger?

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Recent Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Winners

2019 – SAN BENEDETO  (11/1)
2018 – Abandoned
2017 – THOMAS CRAPPER (8/1)
2016 – SAMETEGAL (7/1)
2015 – SOUND INVESTMENT (7/2 fav)
2014 – SHANGANI (3/1 fav)
2013 – PACHA Du POLDER (18/1)
2012 – AERIAL (10/3 fav)
2011 – FINE PARCHMENT (12/1)
2010 – BIG FELLA THANKS (8/1)
2009 – NEW LITTLE BRIC (14/1)
2008 – NATAL (3/1 jfav)
2007 – MADISON du BERLAIS (12/1)
2006 – HORUS (22/1) dead-heat
2006 – CORNISH SET (5/1 fav) dead-heat
2005 – SUPREME PRINCE (7/1)
2004 – ISIO (11/2)

Greatwood Gold Cup Chase Betting Trends

15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites  to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat

 

Sat TV Trends: 3rd April 2021

More LIVE ITV horse racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to both Haydock and Musselburgh to take in seven races across the two venues.

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our verdicts!

 

 

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Betway Challenger Two Mile Hurdle Series Final (A Handicap Hurdle) Cl2 1m7f144y ITV4

Four previous runnings
Trainers Neil King, Donald McCain, Tom George and Nigel Twiston-Davies have won the race before
4/4 – Winners returned between 8/1 and 11/1
3/4 – Winners carried 10-4 or less in weight
3/4 – Irish Bred
3/4 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
3/4 – Rated between 115-119
3/4 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
0/4 – No winning favourite
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 67% record with his hurdles at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 3 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 1 from 25 with his hurdlers at the track

 

 

2.40 – Betway Challenger Staying Chase Series Final (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m24y ITV4

Four previous runnings
Trainers Alan King (2), Lucy Wadham, and Tom George are the past winners of the race /
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Won between 0-2 times fences
4/4 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Finished 4th last time out
3/4 – Rated between 125-132
3/4 – Won over 3m (fences) before
3/4 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
3/4 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
3/4 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
0/4 – Winning favourites
Mahlermade won the race in 2019
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 43% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Venetia Williams has a 21% record with his chasers at the track

3.15 – Betway Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

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4/4 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
4/4 – Carried 11-4 or less in weight
3/4 – Finished in the top three last time out
3/4 – Had run at the track before
3/4 – Won at least twice over hurdles before
3/4 – Rated between 122-126
3/4 – Unplaced favourites
0/4 – Winning favourites
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill (2), Nick Williams and Stuart Edmunds have won this race before
Trainer Jamie Snowden has a 33% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 21% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Alan King is just 1 from 25 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 3 from 48 with his hurdlers at the track

 

MUSSELBURGH Horse Racing Trends (Racing TV/ITV4)

1.50 – Betway Musselburgh Silver Arrow Handicap Cl3 (4yo+) 7f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
Trainers David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan and David Barron have won the race before
Three Saints Bay won the race in 2019
All three winners returned 11/2 or 6/1
All three winners carried between 9-3 and 9-7
All three winners came from stalls 3 or 4
No winning favourite yet

 

2.25 – Betway Royal Mile Handicap (Class 2) (3yo) 1m ITV4

Only 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
5/5 – Won between 1-2 times before
5/5 – Rated between 81-86 (inc)
5/5 – From stalls 2-6 (inc)
4/5 – Won over 7f or further
3/5 – Won this off a layoff (5+months)
3/5 – Won last time out
2/5 – Trained by Richard Fahey
Trainers Mark Johnston, John Quinn and William Haggas have won the race before

 

 

3.00 – Betway Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f ITV4

9/9 – Won over 5f before
7/9 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/9 – Drawn 8 or higher
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/9 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
6/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
6/9 – Rated between 92 and 98
5/9 – Unplaced favourites
5/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Ran at the track before
4/9 – Drawn in stalls 15 (2) or 16 (2)
3/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Trained by Mick Appleby (won last 2)
2/9 – Ridden by Alistair Rawlinson
Caspian Prince won the race in 2018

 

3.35 – Betway Queen's Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

4/5 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Had run at Musselburgh before
4/5 – Returned a double-figure price
3/5 – Unplaced favourites
3/5 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
1/5 – Winning favourite
Trainers Mark Johnston, Archie Watson, JP Shanahan, Brian Ellison and Jim Goldie have won the race before

 

 

 

 

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Imperial Cup Trends

Staged at Sandown racecourse the Imperial Cup in a hurdle race run over 2m 1/2f. Run just days before the start of the Cheltenham Festival  the contest always takes has an added interest for punters and trainers as traditionally the race sponsors have traditional put up an extra £50,000 should the winner go onto land any festival race the following week - the 2020 race sponsors are leading bookmaker, Paddy Power.

In recent years that incentive has seen powerful stables like Henderson and Hobbs target the race, but it’s the Pipe yard that hold the best recent record – winning the race four times in the last 15 years and 9 times in all.

The last horses to win the Imperial Cup and then go onto land a Festival race the following week are Olympian (1993), Blowing Wind (1998) and Gaspara (2007). While the 2016 winner – Flying Angel – only just failed to land the bonus after running second in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race. The last three winners – Malaya, London Prize and Mr Antolini – didn’t go onto run at the Cheltenham Festival.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and give you all the key stats to take into the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 13th March.

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Recent Imperial Cup Winners

2020 – Abandoned
2019 – MALAYA (7/1)
2018 - MR ANTOLINI (20/1)
2017 - LONDON PRIZE (10/1)
2016 – FLYING ANGEL (9/1)
2015 – EBONY EXPRESS (33/1)
2014 – BALTIMORE ROCK (7/1)
2013 – FIRST AVENUE (20/1)
2012 – PAINTBALL (20/1)
2011 – ALARAZI (10/1)
2010 – QASPAL (11/4 fav)
2009 – DAVE’S DREAM (12/1)
2008 – ASHKAZAR (10/3 fav)
2007 – GASPARA (11/4 fav)
2006 – VICTRAM (8/1)
2005 – MEDISON (9/2 fav)
2004 – SCORNED (14/1)
2003 – KORELO (9/4 fav)

Imperial Cup Betting Trends and Stats

16/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Rated 124 or higher
13/17 – Aged 6 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
10/17 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
10/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/17 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 27th Feb 2021

This weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with their newly-sponsored Close Brothers Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Winter Derby and the Newcastle for their Eider Chase.

As always, we've got the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races - use these to help find the best profiles based on past winners.

 

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

1.50– Close Brothers Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

14/16 – French (8) of Irish (6) bred
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/16 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 11)
9/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites

 

2.25 – Close Brothers Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 -  Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
13/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/17– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – French bred
5/17 – Irish bred
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 4 runnings)
4/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

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14/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
13/15 – Returned a single-figure price in the betting
13/15 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
12/15 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – French bred
4/15 – Trained by Alan King
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park

 

3.35 – Close Brothers Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/18 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Aged 8 years-old
5/18 – French bred
4/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Tom George
2/18 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Mister Malarky (9/1) won the race in 2020

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

3.15 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
Crosspark (12/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)

2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

12/14 – Rated 96+
12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at Lingfield before
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/14 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/14 – Placed favs
8/14 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/14 – US bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Mare winners
3/14 – Trained by David Barron
0/14 – Winners from stall 1
Hareem Queen won the race in 2020
Royal Birth won the race in 2017

 

2.40 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4

16/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Had run at Lingfield previously
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/18 – Had raced at either Lingfield (10) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/18 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
12/18 – Won at Lingfield previously
12/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 18 renewals is 11/2

 

 

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Winter Derby Trends

2021 Winter Derby Betting Trends - First run in 1998 the Betway-sponsored Winter Derby is staged at Lingfield racecourse and run on their All Weather track. The 1m2f contest in now a Group 3 race after being upgraded from Listed class back in 2006.

In recent years a 4 year-old has won the race 5 times in the last 10 runnings, while it could pay to concentrate on horses aged 6 or younger as this age group has been responsible for 15 of the last 18 winners – trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori have also landed the last two runnings.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at the recent winners and gives you all the key stats to take in the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th February.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Recent Lingfield Winter Derby Winners

2020 - DUBAI WARRIOR (4/9 fav)
2019 – WISSAHICKON (1/4 fav)
2018 - MASTER THE WORLD (16/1)
2017 - CONVEY (11/2)
2016 – GRENDISAR (11/4)
2015 – TRYSTER (3/1 fav)
2014 – ROBIN HOODS BAY (10/1)
2013 – FARRAAJ (6/4 fav)
2012 – PREMIO LOCO (5/1)
2011 – NIDEEB (9/4 fav)
2010 – TRANQUIL TIGER (11/8 fav)
2009 – SCINTILLO (8/1)
2008 – HATTAN (14/1)
2007 – GENTLEMAN’S DEAL (4/1 jfav)
2006 – SRI DIAMOND (8/1)
2005 – ECCENTRIC (7/2)
2004 – CALUKI (14/1)
2003 – PARASOL (5/2 jfav)

 

Lingfield Winter Derby Betting Trends

16/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Had run at Lingfield previously
14/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
14/18 – Had raced at either Lingfield (10) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/18 – Winning distance – less than a length
12/18 – Placed in their last race
12/18 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
12/18 – Won at Lingfield previously
12/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/18 – Won their last race
9/18 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (last 2 runnings)
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Ridden by Adam Kirby (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (last 2 runnings)
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 18 renewals is 11/2

 

 

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Close Brothers Handicap Chase Trends

The Close Brothers Chase was first run back in 1988 and was staged as the Racing Post Chase until 2011 and then the Racing Plus Chase in 2012 & 2013. Leading bookmaker – BetBright – took over the sponsorship from 2014 till 2017. In 2020 we had another new backer of the race with leading bookmaker Betway taking over, while in 2021 the race will be run as the Close Brothers Chase.

This Grade Three handicap is run over a distance of 3m at Kempton Park racecourse the contest is often described as another Grand National trial, with two horses – Rhyme ‘n’ Reason and Rough Quest – landing both races in the same season, while it could pay to know that both those horses also contested the Cheltenham Gold Cup that season.

Did You Know - 15 of the last 18 winners were aged 9 or younger and finished in the top 5 last time out.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners of the Close Brothers Chase and give you the key stats to look out for ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday February 27th.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

 

Recent Close Brothers Chase Winners

2020 – MISTER MALARKY (9/1)
2019 -  WALT (14/1)
2018 – MASTER DEE (8/1)
2017 – PILGRIMS BAY (25/1)
2016 – THEATRE GUIDE (6/1)
2015 – ROCKY CREEK (8/1)
2014 – BALLY LEGEND (28/1)
2013 – OPENING BATSMAN (12/1)
2012 – NACARAT (9/2)
2011 – QUINZ (8/1)
2010 – RAZOR ROYALE (11/1)
2009 – NACARAT (10/1)
2008 – GUNGADU (4/1 fav)
2007 – SIMON (11/2)
2006 – INNOX (8/1)
2005 – FARMER JACK (5/1)
2004 – MARLBOROUGH (8/1)
2003 – LA LANDIERE (5/1 jfav)

Key Close Brothers Betting Trends

15/18 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
15/18 – Rated 139 or higher
13/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/18 – Won a Class 2 chase or better before
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
12/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/18 – Rated between 139 and 150
10/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/18 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Aged 8 years-old
5/18 – French bred
4/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
3/18 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Trained by Tom George
2/18 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (won 2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/18 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
Mister Malarky (9/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park

 

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Eider Chase Trends

The Eider Chase is run over a gruelling 4m1f trip at Newcastle racecourse and is a handicap race that is seen as another key Grand National trial ahead of the big Liverpool race the following month. In recent years the David Pipe-trained Comply Or Die (2008) is the most recent example of the winner of this race going onto land the Merseyside Marathon that same season.

Did You Know – 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 10 or younger, while 11 of the last 16 successful horses were Irish bred.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at recent winners and give you all the key trends and stats to take into the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th February.

 

==========================================

Recent Eider Chase Winners

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2020 - No Race
2019 – CROSSPARK (12/1)
2018 – BAYWING (8/1)
2017 - BAYWING (8/1)
2017 – MYSTEREE (10/1)
2016 – ROCKING BLUES  (8/1)
2015 – MILBOROUGH (18/1)
2014 – WYCK HILL (9/1)
2013 – No Race
2012 – PORTRAIT KING (11/4fav)
2011 – COMPANERO (16/1)
2010 – No Race
2009 – MERIGO (5/1)
2008 – COMPLY OR DIE (11/1)
2007 – NIL DESPERANDUM (6/1)
2006 – PHILSON RUN (10/1)
2005 – No Race
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (28/1)
2003 – No Race
2002 – THIS IS SERIOUS (4/1 fav)
2001 – NARROW WATER (6/1)
2000 -  SCOTTON GREEN (8/1)

 

Key Eider Chase Betting Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
Crosspark (12/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

 

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Betfair Hurdle Trends

Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair Hurdle is a Grade Three contest run over 2m 1/2f in February each year. First run in 1963, the race is always a hotly-contested race, while some punters might know the even better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, being that’s what the race was called before Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2012.

Despite more obvious Champion Hurdle trials on offer during the season the race has thrown up two horses – Persian War and Make A Stand – that went onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle later that season, while the 2013 hero - My Tent Or Yours - went onto be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto land the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month, while in 2017 the Nigel Twiston-Davis-trained Ballyandy won the race before running fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. More recently in 2018, Kalashinkov won this before running second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

In 2019, we saw the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Al Dancer win the race under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, while last year the Paul Nicholls camp were successful with a 33/1 shot – Pic D’Orhy.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year staged on Sunday 21st February.

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Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners

2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 - AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)

Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

 

 

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Newbury TV Trends: Sun 21st Feb 2021

Newbury were due to stage their decent Betfair Hurdle fixture on Saturday 13th Feb 2021, but were forced to cancel the meeting due to a frozen track.

However, the GOOD NEWS, is that there are plans to move the entire card to Sunday 21st Feb 2021 (weather permitting), with the Betfair Hurdle, Denman Chase and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) the three features and ITV Racing expected to show the fixture too.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

Sunday 21st February 2021


1.50 -
Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

14/15 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
11/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
6/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/15 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/15 – French bred
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Raced at Haydock last time out

 

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

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15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

 

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

15/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Placed favourites
13/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last three renewals (2017, 2018 & 2020)

Note:
The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

 

 

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
Pic D’Orhy (33/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

 

 

 

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Denman Chase Trends

Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair-sponsored Denman Chase is a Grade Two race that is run in February each year.

First run in 2000, the Denman Chase is always a hotly-contested race that is run over a trip of 3 miles, and over the years has provided plenty of clues ahead of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Four horses have won this race before going onto land the Cheltenham Gold Cup that same season – Kauto Star (2007), Denman (2008), Coneygree (2015) & Native River (2018).

In 2017 – Native River won the Denman Chase before running third in the Gold Cup, but in 2018 he went one better after landing both the Denman Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The race was upgraded to Listed status in 2002 and then promoted further in 2003 to a Grade Two – which it remains at today.

The contest was originally sponsored by the Aon Group, but in 2012 leading betting exchange – Betfair – took over the sponsorship mantle, and in the process also renamed the race the ‘Denman Chase’ in honour of the 2008 winner.

Since 2000 leading National Hunt trainer – Paul Nicholls – has won the race 9 times, while if you like your trends it’s worth noting that 7 of the last 13 winners of the Denman Chase were aged 7 years-old – backed up again in 2019 with the Paul Nicholls-trained Clan Des Obeaux winning as a 7 year-old.

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However, it was the turn of a returning champion in Native River in 2020 – this Colin Tizzard chaser and former Gold Cup winner, landed his third Denman Chase under jockey Jonjo O’Neill Jnr.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year staged on Sunday 21st February.

 

Recent Denman Chase Winners

2020 – Native River (2/5 fav)
2019 - Clan Des Obeaux (2/5 fav)
2018 - Native River (8/11 fav)
2017 – Native River (11/10)
2016 - Houblon des Obeaux (3/1)
2015 – Coneygree (15/8 fav)
2014 – Harry Topper (7/2)
2013 – Silviniaco Conti (8/11 fav)
2012 – Long Run (4/7 fav)
2011 – Noland (13/2)
2010 – Tricky Trickster (8/1)
2009 – Madison du Berlais (12/1)
2008 – Denman (1/4 fav)
2007 – Kauto Star (2/9 fav)

Denman Chase Trends

15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 20th Feb 2021

Another jam-packed Saturday of racing for the ITV horse racing team as they head to Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton to take in seven races across the three venues.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

 

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)


1.50 - Bateaux Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

18/18 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
16/18 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
15/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
8/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/18 – Trained by Rebecca Curtis (2 of last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (last two winners)
Copperhead 6/1 won the race in 2020

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

2.25 – ‘My Oddsboost’ On Betfair Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV

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Only 10 previous runnings
10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Aged 8 or older
8/10 – Finished 5th or better last time out
7/10 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/10 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
7/10 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/10 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
6/10 – Aged in double-figures
4/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/10 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning Favourites
2/10 – Trained by Venetia Williams
6 of the last 8 winners carried 11-0 or more
Ballyoptic (8/1) won the race in 2020
Regal Encore won the race in 2018 and was third in 2019

 

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV

14/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
9/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/15 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/15 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Priced 8/1 or bigger
7/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/15 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/15 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/15 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/15 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Nordano (8/1) won the race in 2020

 

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

18/18 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
17/18– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
16/18 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
15/18 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
15/18 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
14/18 – Officially rated 157 or higher
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/18 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/18 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/18 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
7/18 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
7/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 14 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018
Cyrname won the race in 2019
Riders On the Storm won the race in 2020

 

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

2.05 – William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV

17/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
12/18 – Rated 145 or higher
12/18 – Placed favourites
12/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/18 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
11/18 – Aged 8 or younger
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
9/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/18 – Had run at Haydock before
6/18 – French-bred
5/18 – Placed favourites
3/18 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/18 – Winning favourites
1/18 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival
Emitom (7/4 fav) won the race in 2020
Donna’s Diamond (7/1) won the race in 2018

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

 

2.40 – William Hill Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV

18/18 – UK-based trained winners
18/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
16/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/18 – Aged 10 or younger
14/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Rated 135 or higher
12/18 – Aged 9 or younger
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/18 – Irish-bred winners
4/18 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/18 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 6 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1

 

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV)

 

3.18 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
16/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
15/17 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
13/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
11/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/17 – Rated 155 or higher
8/17 – Winning favourites
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/17 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

Warwick TV Trends: Mon 15th Feb 2021

Warwick were meant to stage this Kingmaker Novice Chase card on Saturday 13th Feb 2021, but due to a frozen track were forced to cancel the fixture.

However, the better news is that Warwick will be hoping to reschedule the full fixture for Monday 15th February (weather permitting), with their main race the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the main races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV)

Monday 15th February 2021

2.50 – Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m RTV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds
Rouge Vif (7/2) won the race in 2020

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Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

3.25 – St Marys Land Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f RTV

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
6/6 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/6 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/6 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/6 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Irish bred
2/6 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Indefatigable (7/2 cfav) won the race in 2020

 

3.55 – Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f RTV

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Irish (4) or French (6) bred
9/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top three
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Unplaced in their last race
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Clondaw Castle (11/2) won the race in 2020

 

 

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