As well as the Qatar 'Glorious' Goodwood festival, the same week sees Galway host its seven-day bonanza, at which there is a race for every racehorse. The programme covers the whole gamut from two year old maidens to exposed handicap chasers. Here, we'll focus our attention on the flat handicaps ahead of the 2024 renewal of the meeting. The layout is a little more straightforward here: a little, though not a lot...
Shaped like a diamond, key features of the mile and a quarter Galway oval are sharp turns, undulations, and a stiff uphill quarter-mile run to the finish line. There is a shortish run from the seven furlong start to the first of two bends, both of which require wider drawn runners to either take back and wait or risk conceding ground on the turns.
7f handicaps
With the going good and very little rain forecast for the week, here is a snapshot of how draw and run style might impact the ability of horses to make the frame in Galway 12+ runner seven furlong handicaps.
On good ground or quicker, there is a strong draw bias, with the win, place and percentage of rivals beaten (PRB) figures all much more positive for inside draws than middle, and with middle slightly out-performing high. The draw and run style combination heatmap further confirms this:
It's an advantage to be on the lead if you're not drawn too wide, but low draws have fared well against except a held up run style. Middle draws have also fared well when they've been able to get across and bag the rail, while prominent and midfield middle drawn runners have slightly outdone the 0.50 PRB average. High drawn horses have had a tough time of it, with just two from 82 winning from the outside third in 7f fast ground handicaps since 2009.
1m 1/2f handicaps
It's a broadly similar story over the extended mile where the run to the first turn is longer, and there's obviously more of a premium on stamina and not doing too much too soon. Here, the low draw bias is still prevalent but it is slightly less dominant especially in relation to low drawn front runners. Saving ground in a stalking position is a good punting angle though wagers will be a hostage to fortune somewhat in terms of the gaps opening.
The other main takeaway at this distance is the relatively poor performance of held up horses. In big fields, it's just very difficult to negotiate a passage through horses, or to concede all the ground going the long way around rivals.
So, on quicker ground there are some bankable draw/run style biases to play at the west of Ireland track but we'll still need luck in the run! Good luck with your Galway 2024 plays, and I hope this article s
Good luck!
Matt
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