Geegeez Fortnightly Round-up

It's very much the calm before the storm at the moment, dear reader, so what better time than now to catch up on what's been happening, and what's to follow?

The recap post I scribbled a couple of weeks ago was well received, especially from those for whom five times a week is too often... to receive my emails at least! 😉

So, in reverse order, here's what you might have missed since my last recap:

Feb 22nd - I reviewed Betfair Conspiracy, and quite liked it. In fact, I've been tracking it ever since (more below).

Feb 23rd - As part of my ongoing Cheltenham Festival warm-up, I took the Arkle Trophy 2010 apart and identified a value 16/1 shot.

March 2nd - As you'll probably know, I love-love-love the Cheltenham Festival, and - in my opinion - this guide is an absolute must have if you're planning on wagering next week. Find out why in my review here: Festival Trends

March 4th - Moving more current, and in the middle of last week, I gave out a great little system for finding nice priced hunter chase winners. If you missed it, you can read that here: Hunter Chase Betting System

March 5th - And then, towards the end of last week, I went into 'self promotion' mode, firstly by telling you all about a new minisite I've put together for the Festival, which you can see here: Cheltenham Festival Trends 2010

March 6th - Then secondly, as weekend reading (for those who check their emails on the weekends), I started to introduce the idea of your online business. There's nothing to do yet, except get a little inspired and intrigued with what is to follow over the next few weeks, so you might enjoy this: Your Online Business?

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You may very well also have noticed that I'm not the only one who posts on here. I'm lucky enough to have some great guys who trial betting systems / services / software for us. They do this in real time, and so you can see each day how the products are progressing. Thanks a million to John and Jim for your sterling efforts!

At the moment, we've got promising trials of Format Racing, and less promising (at this early stage at least) looks at 1000 Point Per Year system and Bet Catalyst. You can get to the threads which pull all related posts together for each system, below:

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Format Racing Thread

1000 Point Per Year Thread

Betfair Conspiracy Thread - (generally at the bottom of other posts)

Bet Catalyst Thread

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Today's Betfair Conspiracy races (for me, at least) are: 2.20 Ffos Las (probably too short); 2.10 Lingfield; 3.15 Lingfield; 4.25 Lingfield; Stratford 2.00.

I'm currently down 16% before today's racing, and looking for improvement this week. Full results here.

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So that's the past.

Now, having looked back over the last fortnight, what's to come over the ensuing two weeks?

Well, quite a lot, of course!

Obviously, we've got the small matter of the Cheltenham Festival, and I'll be bringing more thoughts on that over the coming days, as well as my reviews and previews of each day during Cheltenham.

Plus, in the week immediately following that brilliant Festival, I'll start sharing some great content on how to get started for yourself with this internet business malarkey. I think, judging by the comments on Saturday's post, this will be of interest to many of you.

Plus, also once Cheltenham is out of the way, I'll be taking another look at Aintree's cornerstone race, the Grand National. I'll be factoring in all the additional information we have since the weights were initially published back in mid-February, and establish whether there are any nags making a case for their inclusion on the Geegeez shortlist.

So, lots has happened in the last couple of weeks, and there's a bundle more to look forward to imminently, here at Geegeez.

Stay tuned!

Matt

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5 replies
  1. Craig says:

    Do you think our big fancy for the Arkle will get a run? The noises coming from the stable and market moves are not encouraging but at the same time they haven’t said, as far as I know, that he is going to be moved to the other Cheltenham race instead. People seem to have made that assumption, given the relative prices for each race, but it appears unfounded unless you know different Matt?

    The way I read Nicholls’ comments in the RP is that he doesn’t expect Tataniano to succeed in The Arkle (although he will run) but that a lesser prize at Aintree might come his way.

    I’ll be gutted if this trends ‘banker’ gets pulled having invested a wedge at 16’s. I’m disappointed that Nicholls is so negative about Tataniano also, given that he was berating himself and not the horse for its poor showing LTO on terrible ground.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Craig

      I’ve noticed, funnily enough, that both my Arkle fancies are at the head of the Grand Annual market: Tataniano and French Opera.

      As you say, the money suggests that Tat is going for the latter race, but remember that pretty much all bookies are now going non-runner, no bet, so punters can back in the Grand Annual without doing their dough if he runs in the Arkle.

      I don’t have any better info than you about where he’ll run, but Nicholls usually plays with a straight bat so I suspect the Arkle is the race. I don’t think he’s got anything else of note in there either (Woolcombe Folly maybe?).

      Matt

  2. stuart wilde says:

    with cheltenham particularly in mind do members enjoy the merits of all each way doubles and trebles?if you have a winner and a place(and the good thing always comes second !) returns are much improved over the bookies standard settlement.forinstance a winner at 4-1 and a place at4-1 would pay £7 instead of £4.a winner at 12-1 and a place at 4-1 would give £17 instead of £8.these were £ 1 each way doubles at a quarter odds. of course if both won you would be better off win to win but how often does that happen!

  3. Craig says:

    Thanks Matt,

    It’s a very good point you make about the non-runner no bet market, which seems to be causing weakness in the Betfair ante-post market where there are of course no guarantees.

    I can’t understand why Nicholls is talking up the chances of Woolcombe Folly instead. It’s got no chance, having too little experience and not enough class! I can’t imagine he would be daft enough to take out Tat on the basis he’s not good enough but allow the Folly to line up!

    Stuart….. I have enough trouble finding winners without trying to land them in multiple bets! I used to do e/w doubles etc. but I realised the bookies love this sort of bet because it means they can avoid paying out a big priced winner if the other one finishes outside the frame. You’re effectively playing ‘double or quits’ with the 2nd bet. Sod’s Law determines that the one you expect to win is unplaced and the one that you expect to place, wins! Backing them in win singles triggers the 2nd Law of Sod…..they both lose!! But if one wins at least you have the full payout on it. All in all though I think doubles, trebles, e/w multiples and the like are long odds gambles that offer poor value. If you want to back two winners in a row, try doing it as two singles and see how infrequently it comes off!!

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