In this second part of a serialization of one of the more interesting Geegeez Gold forum threads, we follow the intrepid forumites as they look to better shape their still somewhat amorphous betting system idea. A couple of sub-systems hive off and are live tracked.
If you missed part 1, you can - and should - read that here.
So, to part 2...
Evening all! Well, I had 22 bets this afternoon at. No luck at Bev (8 bets, £16), but Goodwood came good with a bookie SP profit of £35 and Betfair (where my money always goes) giving back 75 which, after 5% comm excl stake, was a nice profit on the day of £49.55
I have 17 bets on three races at Galway this evening, 4 dead already in the 6.50, will check out the rest later when I return from a nice pub quiz…
Last night’s 17 failed to win, leaving profit on the day £32.55.
Here are the results of THIS year’s first 100 of the season, starting with smallest field.
Flat Turf Handicaps 2015
5. 5/4 13/8 9/2
6. 6/4 7/4 11/4 3/1 5/1 10/1 28/1*
7. 6/5 2/1 9/4 7/2 4/1 11/2 8/1 9/1 16/1
8. 2/1 5/2 11/4 5/1 9/1 20/1
9. 9/4 3/1 3/1 7/2 4/1 4/1 6/1 11/2 15/2 16/1*
10. 5/1 6/1 6/1 7/1 10/1 28/1*
11. 5/2 3/1 7/2 4/1 6/1 7/1 9/1 11/1 11/1 16/1 20/1
12. 7/4 5/2 3/1 3/1 3/1 7/2 9/2 15/2 9/1 9/1 12/1 14/1 14/1 14/1
13. 9/2 5/1 11/2 7/1 8/1
14. 4/1 5/1 11/2 13/2 25/1 25/1
15. 9/2 11/2 11/2 10/1 14/1
16. 8/1 14/1 20/1
17. 7/1 10/1 12/1 16/1
18. 7/2 17/2 14/1 18/1
By price range
Up to 2/1 – 10
9/4 to 4/1 – 24
9/2 to 15/2 – 27
8/1 to 10/1 – 15
11/1 to 14/1 – 13
16/1 to 20/1 – 7
22/1 to 28/1 – 4
Looks like about three less outsiders than last year, but some of the 11-14/1s were 16/1+ in the betting forecast. I’d say back them if the 16/1+ is available.
My jumps system fancies Letter Of Credit at Gal 5.30
Catch ya later!
Expect you were all on Sands Of Time and Pastoral Player in the first and last at Goodwood yesterday? Can we win there three days in a row? Plenty to back there today, beginning with five in the first.
My jumps selections today are:
Str 2.45 Tribal Dance 16/1 25 5
Gal 4.45 Thousand Stars 25/1 50 7
Back this p.m. with an interesting observation which is probably another good filter for the flat turf handicap outsiders.
Instead of just number of runners, I wondered about position on racecard of outsider winners in the 14/1 to 33/1 range. First thing I spotted was a shortage of bottom weight winners. So far, as well as the first 100 turf flat handicap races 2015 (above) I’ve compiled the results for the the remainder of April (11 winners from 18th – 30th) and am about halfway through May with seven winners so far. The majority (full detailed chart to come when I’m up to date) are somewhere in the middle. Currently I’d suggest not backing top two and bottom weights. Any contender in any of those three positions should be discounted – less bets more profit, right?
Ban 2.10 Nafaath 14/1 22
Ban 4.30 Heist 14/1 22
Gal 5.10 Shield 25/1 40+
Gal 6.15 Protaras 20/1 32
Well, jumps no good again yesterday, the out-of-season summer always shows a dip in bets and profits, which is why I’m so pleased with this new flat turf handicap system. I made well over £200 yesterday and maybe (by accident) just under £900 today, because I (a) bet fivers, forgetting that I’ve been doing £2 until now, probably because I’d keyed my jumps bet in first and more serendipitous – that means “happy accident” – I twice backed Altharoos at 34 on Betfair – that’s a “d’oh!” for the senior moment and a “yes!” when I saw the result!
I think I’ve spotted another little helper, but it will mean more bets: maiden stakes tend to chuck up massive priced winners too. But before committing to that I’ll need to go back over the cards and results of this year’s flat just to be sure that profit greatly outweighs input.
I’m up to June’s results now, so in a few more days I’ll hopefully be right up to date with our system. Sorry, did I say “our”? 🙂 I haven’t seen much response to my request for everyone else to throw in their expertise. But hey, I know it seems longer, but I’ve only been ensconced for ten days!
More tomorrow, remember to have fun!
PS, just noticed that Frightened Rabbit popped in at Ham – 14/1, 22Bf followed 15 mins later by … wait for it! … Cherry Kool at Lin 33/1, 65 at Bf!
Wow, I seem to be getting rich suddenly!
Well done Ray (even if Frightened Rabbit beat SotD!)
ray i like your way of thinking
would you back all 16/1 to 33/1 in one race
some races could have up to 10 bets
and at 5 a bet that could be expensive
if you got a bad run
what about the border horses 14/1 would you
put a bet on them
Hi Ray, firstly thanks for sharing
One question I want to ask is that when I am paper trading past couple of days, you may have more than two top weight and bottom weight
So what do you do in that situation, go with whoever is the 1st/last two at either end?
finky – in cases where the betting forecast has 16/1 or more but the early actual bookie showings say 14/1 then yes, as you’ll notice in the earlier posts here, I have suggested they should be included. I also strongly suggest exchange betting or at a pinch bookies offering best odds guaranteed, a prime example being Dark Crystal a couple of days ago. It was 33/1, but drifted to 40, and on Betfair I always go for more, in this case betting 65 or BSP at the off (that option is always there). Try paper bets or a quid per selection at a b.o.g. until you gain the confidence (and the bank) to increase. Remember, flat turf handicaps only, and I’ll be mentioning another filter shortly.
Cheers buddy, hope that helps!
Clayton, looking at the 100 results of last year and this year, as shown in earlier posts, it’s clearly not worth betting on the top two or the bottom weight, so that becomes a major money-saving filter. The middle field weights are much better and as I’ve just noted above, I may have another filter which precludes any of the lower runners on the card, which gives enormous savings on huge fields. I’ll have this sussed in a day or two, but it is looking really promising.
23 horses backed in all handicaps today see what happens
14/1 to 33/1 on betfair small stakes
good stuff ray, best of luck with this and thanks for all your input, very much appreciated.
finky – me too!! Hope you asked for double or BSP and I hope they’re the same 23 as mine 🙂
Clay, I’ve been following along and applying the ‘Ray’ Method, I had about 6 bets last night one of which was Frightened Rabbit. I have 8 today, a couple are just short on the odds but have include them. I am attempting to reduce the number of bets, as for me 23 is quite a lot. I am using odds range of 16/1 to 33/1 with a little margin either side.
Hi Tigris, how I have done todays is Racing Post and Turf Flat Handicaps and then any that are 16/1 – 33/1 in the betting forecast at bottom of the field then seeing any of those are either top 2 weights or bottom one weight, if not these weights then is a bet
Or is there the “proper” way to do it as I am a little slow on the uptake on these things, so sorry in advance as a newbie to geegeez 🙂
I have been following this thread closely and what I’ve done is shortlisted the contenders down in the races using speed ratings the ones I have backed today are
AVON SCENT 2.30 CHEP
BOUNTYBEAMADAM 3.40 CHEP
CHOSEN CHARACTER 3.50 CHESTER
CHESTER DEYLETE 4.45 CHEP
BERTIE MOON 4.55 CHESTER
NAKETTA 5.25 CHESTER in a ew hienz its an interesting method ray I would like to see if there was a class filter ie back in races class 456 or 234 I cant find this out as have not got the software to run it just a thought sunchu
I followed Ray like you Clay:
“All outsider winners came in at 16/1 plus, but NONE at greater than 33/1 ISP (65 BSP), so, taking all our selections from ISP, what happens when we install limits of 16/1 to 33/1 and exclude the TWO TOP WEIGHTS (see results by weight posted above on the 25th). We have…”
I also exclude Class 1, but not many of those and none today.
I am using BSP 17.0 to 43.0 Odds to narrow down the selections and reduced the numbers. I am still not sure about FCSP, so of the next race at Galway I have:
15:20 Gal(IE) Fastidious 36.0
15:20 Gal(IE) Kapstadt 36.0
They meet Ray’s parameters (my interpretation of them at least).
My first three of the day were not places, but I estimate a SR of <10% based on my calculations of back testing, so not expecting many winners, I suspect that with Ray’s 23 today, he is running at a much lower SR, maybe 5%
Yesterday I had one winner and three were placed out of the 6 or so I bet on, so encouraging that the Ray System may show a profit, well a hope at least.
Sondrio2, Win only singles for 2% of bank but, I also putting small ew multiple like heinz or L15/L31 for pennies, and yesterday had 4 wining selections in the multiple, 3 placed and one winner, so only got place odds for acc part of bet, but still quite respectable. Doesn’t look like I will have that today, last two run in 1700 at Galway, so relying on a winner today….
thanks tigris, good luck mate
betfair account =+80 after todays 23 bets at 2 a bet
system worked today but had to wait for secound last
race for first winner and last race for next winner
which was the profit for day
Nice profit there finky 🙂
I had nowt for today with my 12
Would just like to ask if Ray if this system is at looking at betting forecast that can be done night before or in the morning of the days racing or are we to be going by betfair prices at the off
just an observation if I am right in thinking that berrahri and mysterial were the only winners in this system today they were both in the top 3 on geegeez speed ratings and others selections in the system who lost were outside the top 3 apart from chosen character in the 3.50chester who was in the top 3 i’m going to keep checking results in the coming week to see if this repeats sunchu
Thanks finky1, most helpful, I have been considering the differences introduced by FCSP, ISP & BSP. My take is that betting to ISP/FCSP would show a consistent loss over time, which is what Ray described in his earlier post. I did a ‘snap-shot’ test for a 7 day period based on a system with the following parameters: UK Handicaps; Not top 1 or 2 in weights or bottom weight; Not Class 1; Odds range 17.0 to 34.0 FCSP:
This meant I excluded the two winners from yesterday finky1 as their FCSP were below 17.0. Betting to ISP of between 15.0 and 34.0 What I go was:
Number of bets = 175
Staked @ £2 per bet = £350
Win Return based on 5 wins @ 34.0, 34.0, 21.0, 19.0, 21.0 = £248
P&L = -£102
I would accept that placing the bets on Betfair would have given higher odds, and the £102 loss, would likely have shown a modest profit depending on the BSP odds obtained.
My take is only way to have chance of profit, whether you make your original selections beaded on FCSP or ISP is to then bet to BSP to maximise the odds obtained. So as long as your original selections were made with odds ranges 15.0 to 34.0, and even if BSP is above 34.0 then this still a bet. in this way BSP does not determine whether to place a bet or not, BSP is only about maximising the odds obtained.
So to sumarise:
Make selection based on FCSP or ISP of odds between 15.0 and 34.0
Bet to BSP to get better odds
However there is word of caution, expect a lot of loosing bets, from my small one week snap-shop it showed a S/R of 3%
I then ran a system based solely on BSP with odds range 15.0 to 43.0 with Rays parameters and then added some more in order to reduce the number of bets and improve the S/R. I did 2015 and got the following stats:
Number of Selections = 307
Number of winners = 28
Number of looser = 279
P/L @ 1 point per bet = 271
S/R = 9%
For 2015 @ £2 level stake:
Outlay = £614
Loss = £558
Return = £1100
P/L = £542
However with Ray's original parameters the system showed a small profit, but not one to get excited about.
The bets have to placed near the off with this BSP system, as odds have to be in range 15.0 to 43.0, and they fluctuate over the day.
The longest loosing run so far was 51 bets with this system. with about 5 bets per day, the last winner in this system was on 01.08.2015 (Frightened Rabbit @ 22.0) and then 18.07.2015 (Etienne Gerard @ 18.5 BSP), and the one before was on 17.07.2015 (Poyle Vinnie @ 29.0), no wins yesterday from the 6 selections.
Ray your system no doubt will find winners, but does it produce a constant profit over time? Having a 33/1 winner is nice, but having 60 or 70 loosing bets is not so nice. The system I produced does have to exclude some winners in order to reduce the number of losers, of course there is no guarantee that the past equals the future so this system may not continue to show a profit.
I’ll run the system later today and put up the selections here so you can compare them to yours.
Here is the 1543System output, I have also included the ones that are out of the odds range at the moment, so these would be a no bet, but nearer the off these odds may change so have included them, I have removed any selections with odds way out of the range and unlikely to get in to range near the off, so left with:
14:45,Ripon,Macarthurs Park 29.0
15:30,Nott,Pull The Plug 13.0
17:00,Nott,Oakley Star 11.0
17:00,Nott,Leave It To Arno 55.0
20:45,Carl,New Colours 12.0
The odds range is BSP 15 to 43, so only a bet if near the off the odds are in this range, so at current odds onBetfair only those in bold are selection to place a bet only 6 bets at the moment, near the off this could change, so some may get ruled out and others ruled in. So with this system you have to wait 5 minutes or less before the off, as it it relies on BSP to predict winners.
Interesting to see how these compare to your selection for today.
Slimmed down system had no winners yesterday. Ray’s had at least two. Today just three dropped out of slimmed down system:
1615 Cat Rockby
1745 Cat Atreus
1935 Rip Lad Web
For comparison to Ray’s original system.
For a system based on UK Flat Handicaps excluding the top two weights – According to my records there were two winners yesterday, Sergeant Pink 29.93 & Call it on 29.44 with 41 bets (note I cannot exclude the bottom weight fr0m my system calculator, so may be some bottom weights in there) so last night I estimate:
41 bets @ £2 = £82
Return = £120
P&L = £36
I have just run some number for 2015, and the following is what I got for UK Flat Handicaps excluding the top two weights:
total bets = 3978
Wins = 175
Losers = 3803
P&L = -200 Points (assuming 1 point per bet)
This is to BSP using odds range of 15.0 to 43.0, if you take out the bottom weights that may help or hinder the bottom line, I could not remove them from my calculator.
2014 showed a slight loss of -38 points.
So my calculations suggest it is not overall profitable even at BSP, even if you took out the bottom weights I suspect it would not go into profit, as some of these may actually have been winners anyway.
The estimate is about 30 bets per day and a SR of 4%, so expect a lot of losers. To put on 30 bets a day is quite a task, every day!
I did a bit more digging and found that ages 3,4 & 5 showed the most potential profit, for 2015 the stats are for odds 15 to 43 BSP, excluding the top two weights:
This doubles the SR and puts the system into profit of a total of 274 points for 2015 to date, 2014 showed a similar pattern.
I feel there is a lot more refining that can be done to create a profitable system, so my conclusion at this stage Ray is that your system is not profitable over the long term, with some further refining I think it could be worth teasing out, so for me I would not be backing 30 horses a day in such an ‘unrefined’ system given the stats I have come up with. Assuming of course Ray I have applied your method to my analysis….
Really enjoying the analysis and thank you for setting this thread off…..
Would welcome your comments Ray, and of course challenges to my analysis most welcome.
Just a couple of thoughts for system refinement – perhaps you could run them through your database Tigris.
1) Exclude Nursery Handicaps
2) Exclude 3YO only Handicaps
3) Exclude Races of more than 16 runners.
+ 20 yesterday didnt back any in evening meeting
30 bets today +12 didnt back evening meeting also
Thanks Steve will try these. One thing to add is the stats i prouduced for 2014 showing a profit for 3,4 & 5 year olds i used a lot more filters to get into profit.
When i simply excluded top 2 weights and did 3 to 5 year olds system still showed a loss of 300 points. So i had to filter a lot lot more. So simply following Ray’s method for 3 to 5 year olds still (with my stats) showed a loss for 2014.
For example i excluded certain courses such as Windsor – as Ray pointed to the track issue in an earlier post.
Good going finky1, i’ve just looked back at my slimmed down 1543System and since Frightened Rabbit win @ 15.5 have had 13 loosing bets to yesterday. So is in profit by +5 points. That is 1 win out of last 13 = 7.69% sr
Prior to last win had loosing run of 56 however, putting that into perspective just before this loosing run there were 4 winners in 10 bets @ 18.5 20.0 19.0 & 18.0 = 151 points (@ £2 per point). So outlay is 112 giving a profit of +£39, so adding the 5 gives +£41 since 8 July.
So system is due a win based on sr however, loosing runs would seem inevitable with this system.
Today i have:
1600 Brig Liberty Rule
1650 Brig Delydream
1700 Chep Mistamel
30 bets today not counting evening
just wondering would this improve
as season closes i notice alot of outsiders win near end of season
Hi, guys! Been a bit under the weather with hay fever last few days, but while I’ve not been posting or betting, Ihave been researching. Once I had all the results to date, I did a comparison with last year’s figures and it’s pretty clear that the start of the season in both years yields greater outsider wins than the middle. Since my huge win five days ago when I tempted fate by saying “Wow, I think I’m getting rich!”, I’ve had mediocre to appalling results, so I don’t think it’s the fault of fate, in which I don’t believe anyway, but rather the fault of the system. As it stands, the outsider system may well be at its best at either end of the season. More research will tell.
I have all the winner results for the current year with racecard position (weight) and number of runners. It’s all on paper at the mo’ but I’ll document it here for you today. It appears at first glance to be strongly indicating that field size doesn’t matter, but a few paper tests will be more accurate. Back soon.
In Part 3 of the series, Ray's back, and he's unearthed some more important elements in the quest to refine his strategy...