Ray previously authored Placed To Win

Genesis of a Betting System (Part 3)

Part 3 in the series, and a few strands start to come together for our system developers. If you remember from Part 1 and Part 2, they've been delving into the big-priced end of the market. Here's how things progressed through August of last year...

**


Ray Thompson

Flat Handicaps on Turf from 29/3/15. Winners ISP and (Field/Racecard Place)

(Note that 12/1 and 14 given were 16/1+ in early forecast and/or opened on track at the same 16/1+; also 40+ winners which were 33/1 in forecast and early prices)

March: 14/1 (6th of 18); 16/1 (5th of 7); 18/1 (5/18); 14/1 (5/7)

April: 16/1 (6/11); 28/1 (9/10); 25/1 (13/14); 20/1 (6/11); 20/1 (7/8); 16/1 (7/17); 20/1 (3/16); 16/1 (5/9); 25/1 (10/14); 28/1 (6/6); 14/1 (6/12); 14/1 (11/12); 14/1 (3/13); 16/1 (9/12); 18/1 (10/12); 16/1 (7/13); 33/1 (11/13); 14/1 (4/10); 25/1 (5/13); 16/1 (4/11); 16/1 (5/5); 14/1 (18/20); 16/1 (1/10); 16/1 (8/11); 20/1 (9/10); 12/1 (8/8); 16/1 (4/9).

May: 16/1 (6/9); 16/1 (2/9); 20/1 (7/10); 20/1 (2/11); 25/1 (9/9); 16/1 (7/22); 16/1 (2.10); 14/1 (4/10); 25/1 (8/16); 20/1 (17/21); 20/1 (10/11); 16/1 (5/12); 16/1 (8/13); 25/1 (6.10); 20/1 (10/14); 25/1 (9/11); 50/1 (9/16); 14/1 (11/17); 50/1 (3/11); 20/1 (16/18); 14/1 (8/10); 18/1 (12/13); 12/1 (10/18); 14/1 (6/11); 16/1 (13/13); 16/1 (4/17); 20/1 (5/9); 16/1 (7/7); 20/1 (9/9); 14/1 (8/10); 33/1 (5/14); 16/1 (9/16); 33/1 (12/16); 16/1 (1/9); 16/1 (9/9); 14/1 (8/10); 12/1 (9/11); 20/1 (5/14); 16/1 (3/14); 33/1 (3/11); 18/1 (4/13); 20/1 (3/7); 16/1 (8/11); 33/1 (8/18); 14/1 (15/18); 33/1 (5/15); 14/1 (5/7); 25/1 (3/8); 16/1 (10/13); 20/1 (4/21); 25/1 (13/13); 16/1 (4/15); 16/1 (8/10); 33/1 (8/8).

June: 16/1 (9/12); 33/1 (12/15); 20/1 (6/9); 25/1 (5/10); 16/1 (6/9); 33/1 (7/8); 20/1 (11/11); 20/1 (9/9); 16/1 (13/13); 25/1 (2/7); 16/1 (16/20); 20/1 (1/19); 18/1 (7/9); 33/1 (7/8); 25/1 (6/13), 25/1 (5/10); 25/1 (6/12); 25/1 (10/10); 50/1 (9/9); 16/1 (14/14); 20/1 (11/14); 33/1 (6/7); 16/1 (8/11); 16/1 (6/13); 14/1 (5/5); 16/1 (10/11); 14/1 (4/9); 14/1 (8/14); 16/1 (8/13); 12/1 (11/14); 28/1 (7/10); 16/1 (10/11); 16/1 (3/6); 16/1 (11/20); 20/1 (2/12); 33/1 (5/7); 20/1 (8/10); 25/1 (6/6); 16/1 (3/16); 14/1 (6/8); 14/1 (10/14); 16/1 (11/14); 16/1 (5/6); 16/1 (6/8); 14/1 (8/8); 20/1 (13/21); 25/1 (10/11); 16/1 (9/10); 16/1 (2/7); 14/1 (6/8); 14/1 (6/7);
16/1 (2/9); 16/1 (1/10).

July: 14/1 (6/15); 16/1 (6/8); 25/1 (6/14); 16/1 (4/6); 25/1 (2/16); 25/1 (8/11); 12/1 (12/14); 16/1 (4/10); 16/1 (6/9); 12/1 (5/5); 16/1 (12/13); 20/1 (2/9); 16/1 (13/17); 14/1 (4/17); 12/1 (5/6); 33/1 (7/9); 16/1 (10/10); 16/1 (6/6); 25/1 (2/10); 22/1 (9/15); 20/1 (6/14); 16/1 (10/10); 16/1 (12/14); 16/1 (10/17); 16/1 (8/20); 16/1 (14/18); 16/1 (12/13); 25/1 (8/11); 16/1 (3/13); 20/1 (5/11); 20/1 (8/11); 14/1 (6/10); 16/1 (4/10); 16/1 (6/14); 20/1 (11/14); 20/1 (6/16); 16/1 (12/18); 16/1 (13/19); 18/1 (8/16); 16/1 (3/7); 40/1 (10/11); 20/1 (5/10).

Aug: 16/1 (3/14); 14/1 (5/7); 33/1 (4/8); 16/1 (11/20); 20/1 (9/13); 16/1 (13/14); 22/1 (7/17); 16/1 (8/9); 25/1 (10/10); 16/1 (7/12); 18/1 (8/12); 20/1 (15/15); 16/1 (1/13)

Right. Brunch then movies (Hot Pursuit), back at teatime!


sondrio2

blinking heck, youve put some work in there ray, get a cider lad, you deserve one.


Steve Walmsley

Just applying some basic logic, I suspect its the changes of going that we experience in the early and late months.

Perhaps the absolute refinement would be to limit betting to G-S or worse?


finky1

+52 today 2 winners


sondrio2

blimey, looking good


Ray Thompson

I’ve noticed in NH races that certain horses win on their favoured going and a great many of my NH system winners are “mud monkeys” that ONLY win on Heavy, SH, or Soft, often to the disbelief of the tv pundits who can’t be arsed to read the form correctly and/or never consider anything more than the top 4 or 5 in the betting, so until I’ve completed my current chart – Class & Going vs Race Distance – of this year’s results, then I’m as in the dark as you are Steve. Hopefully, I’ll complete it tomorrow.

Came out of the cinema shortly after 4 this afternoon and while my mate went to get the drinks in, I nipped into Betfred next door to check the results so far, but I bunged a fiver apiece on Rayak and Glens Wobbly in the 4.30 while I made some results notes. Nice £130 return, thank you. 😀


Tigris

Busy busy busy Ray,

I have done some number crunching making some assumptions:

For period 29.03.2015 to 04.08.2015

Number of days = 118
Average bets per day = 34
Average winning odds = 22
Number of wins = 194

So here is the math bit:

Outlay – 118 × 34 = 4012 points
Return – 194 × 22 = 4268 points
P&L = 4268 – 4012 = 256 points

At £2 a point for an outlay of £8024 and a return of £8536 that would have produced a profit of £512

SR = 4.5% with number of losing bets of 3818

So according to my calculations you are now £512 richer Ray since 29 March. Would you agree?


Ray Thompson

Great work there, Tigris, and I’d say you’re right to that £2. I have slid up the scale a bit though, increasing after a losing run of 20 to £3, after 40 to £4, but to be honest, it’s a bit hit and miss at the moment until we get more filters worked out. Personally, although it makes for an interesting read, I wouldn’t be counting the days in my calculations, just number of consecutive wins and losses. However, keep up the good work, mate, you’re exactly part of the team we need to make money.

Right, back to my Class/Distance/Going comparison chart. I’m hoping for completion today, but I do have to pop into town for a hour or so, and it’s my weekly swimming therapy this evening. 16 lengths should do it, as the actress said to the bishop…


finky1

what happens if you only back in races where the fav is 5/1 or better
compared to 2/1 or less and thanks for all your hard work


finky1

43 bets today not counting evenings


Tigris

Big number finky1, i have gone for 6 today with two more possibles just sitting below bsp odds range of 15 to 43 at the moment. Will check prices before the off.

Like you have not looked at evening yet.

Will be interesting to compare results later. If there are a few big price winners today then you will most likey be on. With mine and narrowing the selections hope is to hit at least one.


Tigris

Thanks Ray, I ran the basic system to BSP 15 to 43 from the 29 March 2015 to 5 August and found the following frequency of losing runs:

Losing runs in days
25
6
15
3
87
23
21
43
25
8
20
19
15
8
20
37
44
16
2
8
30
33
4
3
28
21
6
6
17
24
92
50
60
8
29
11
22
20
44
14
43
43
2
10
48
33
17
5
2
19
7
1
87
21
32
29
53
33
5
17
18
10
72
7
9
40
10
8
51
3
25
9
10
12
19
26
11
8
34
10
13
3
2
12
39
21
37
8
40
18
19
35
38
40
33
17
6
45
98
15
45
21
23
8
10
7
13
10
40
22
50
17
28
2
11
2
6
11
8
58
7
18
36
30
8
16
6
19
28
22
2
7
8
19
22
83
7
57
47
30
27
9
39
18
28
32
13
29
46
31
21
3
25
9
3
10
17
10
11
13
29
30
8
3
40
17
37
8
5
26
30
22
36
10
21
6
10
9
11


Ray Thompson

I’ve done my chart for the 187 flat turf handicap winners by class/going/distance so far during the 2015 flat season. Rather than attempt a huge double-grid here, I’ll just tell you how it pans out beginning with Class, then going, and distance last.

C1 3 winners, C2 21, C3 20, C4 54, C5 43, C6 47

Heavy 6, Soft + SH 33, G+GS 75, GF 68, Firm 5

5f 31 winners, 6f 31, 7f 37, 8f(1 mile) 27, 9f 5, 10f 25, 11/12f 21, 14f+ 10

I think this initially shows room for more filters, and I’m hoping that this and Tigris’s losing runs research (and anything else you chaps may have noticed that we’ve missed) take us further along the road to massive success. For a start, if some nice person with access to one of the databases that do instant counting, could let us know the TOTAL number of Flat turf handicaps with runners in the price range we’re targetting, and if they could break that down into the five Classes, then that would be a huge weapon to add to our armoury. I think, for example, that there are probably so few Class 1 races that meet our requirements, that the three winners we’ve spotted are probably in profit!

Back tomorrow, have fun!


finky1

3 winners today +25 today


sondrio2

this is getting to be a regular occurance finky, nice one


finky1

86 to win 25 same as backing 1/3 shot
keep going till i lose


Steve Walmsley

Interesting finky, I only managed 2 winners today:

Roxy Lane @ 20.99 BSP
Lydiate Lady @ 22.18 BSP

I am showing a loss of 10pts on the day.

Love to know what the 3rd winner was.


Tigris

Getting interesting Ray, I have done it on BSP 15 t0 43, so more or less fits your range, from 29.03.2015 to 05.08.2015 (assuming my counting Pivot table is correctly set up) there were 1346 handicap races with runners in this price range. Which should be roughly in the same region as doing the ISP range, give or take a few.

Would be helpful if someone else could do the same to see if this is in the right ball park?

Is this what you asked?


Tigris

Good going, no wins for me today with 5 bets – profit now +£29


finky1

i take prices before i go to work in morning at 9
the two horses you said above qualify also in the
430 in wolverhamton idol deputy qualify but during the
day must have been gambled on won on betfair 13.65 as i take
betfair sp on all qualifiers and check when i come home
from work in evenings


Ray Thompson

There were only two winners yesterday. Wolverhampton is an A/W course, therefore not in our remit.

Today, I’m starting a total grid of Flat Turf Maidens, as I keep seeing massive winning prices, way above our H/C levels. No harm in taking a look to see if we can use them in any way, even if they’re only going to be early/late season winners. I’ll let you know what I find when I’m done.

Got my Friday Club this p.m. and I gotta take a stack of cut-up buddleia that I’ve dug up to the gardening waste centre first, so unlikely I’ll complete the Maidens task today! Talk soon, have fun!


Tigris

Correction I had 8 bets on 6 August @ £2 = total outlay = £16, so running total is actually: +£23, since 1 August.

No bets today from my slimmed down system, though it has identified a few, but outside Odds range, interestingly by system yesterday had Gentlemen and Sallabeh, in fact seems throw out a few low price winners, trouble is not in odds range and not profitable to bet on, as then too many bets and too many losers.

List for today is:

17:55,Hayd,Felix Fabulla 4.7
19:30,Hayd,Jebediah Shine 5.1
20:35,Hayd,Joshua Potman 8.8
20:35,Hayd,Lucie Rie 9.4

Outside odds range and one is bottom weight. So no bet on these today.


Tigris

Now +£21 as Lucie Rie hit 15.0 just before the off, so was a bet, hard this business of BSP odds, I see how you missed the 70.0 finky1.

so just one bet for me today in the end.


Tigris

Ray, I know you are looking at Flat Turf Maidens, tricky it looks, I just did a little analysis for 2015 for Maidens and looks very hairy stuff. At BSP prices between 15 and 200, I got 2131 bets with 63 wins, and 2068 losers, SR = 2.96 and P&L = 87 points.

So would seem profit is possible, but the downside was the losing runs, biggest was 145, quite a long run!

I attempted to do some filtering and found that, the odds range seems optimum, with Class 4 & 5 maximising profit, also Good to Soft was not profitable.

Also found that Fillies and Geldings had the worse SR and thus profit, so taking these out, made quite a difference.

With one or two more tweaks I got to a SR of 4.5%, so betting on Maidens is still going to be one of lots and lots of losers, I got it down to about 5 bets per day, system gave out 18:25,Hayd,Colour Me Happy today which came second but not quite good enough.

I got system profit for 2015 to 300 points with 25 wins out 521 bets, so pretty low SR.

It would seem to be the case with any system so far we have looked at that betting on outsiders involves long losing runs and few winners, but since they offer bigger prices, the chance of profit is favourable, with nerves of steel maybe just maybe it could work.

Last winner in system was Lorelina on 30 July at 40.8 BSP, 19 losing bets since then…

Will post the selections for tomorrow if there are any….


Tigris

Here are three possible bets in a Maiden race today – all in the same race:

14:00,Newm,Gypsy Eyes
14:00,Newm,Sepal
14:00,Newm,Gale Song

Only a bet if odds are between 12.0 and 200 BSP just before the off.

Gypsy Eyes is highlighted as Jockey/Trainer Combo.


Tigris

Here are my selections for the Flat Handicaps today:

13:50,Hayd,Mujazif
14:20,Hayd,The Character
14:20,Hayd,Amood
16:00,Hayd,Akavit
16:00,Hayd,Jumeirah Glory
16:00,Hayd,Cyril
16:00,Hayd,Felix De Vega
16:35,Hayd,Straits Of Malacca
17:05,Hayd,Red Forever
18:40,Ayr,Pomme De Terre
18:40,Ayr,Penelope Pitstop
18:40,Ayr,A Lovable Rogue
19:10,Ayr,Mystical King

only a bet if odds are between 15 and 43 just before the off.


Ray Thompson

I did the maidens yesterday from season start, one winner on 28th Mar, the rest in April. I recorded four separate types of maiden race: Auction, Fillies/Stallions/Geldings only, Funds and the biggie, Stakes.

From 45 bets, Auctions came up with two winners – 16/1 and 20/1, returning 38 (-7) at ISP and 25 + 32 at BSP (+12) so I think we’ll say no to that one for the moment.

Fillies etc, from 88 bets produced one winner at 16/1 (20 BSP). ‘Nuff said!

Funds better, with only three winners from 149 bets. 40/1, 18/1 and 20/1, which would’ve lost 68 points, butBetfair gave 110, 40 & 42 or 182.50 after the 5% commission, enough to show a profit of +33.50. However, I don’t think that’s worth the hassle.

Maiden Stakes is a different kettle of fish though, and bears further research which I’ll get started on today. 173 bets returned nine winners at 25/1, 22/1, 50/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1, 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1. SP returned 245 a profit of +72. Nice, but…

Betfair gave 31,32,100,32,50,60,26,32,42. Yum! A total of 405, profit +212. Now THAT’S what I call a nice profit for the first month of the season.

As I said in an earlier post, this could be something that only happens early in the season, before even the trainers find out how good or bad their charges are. If it’s anything like the NH, beginning and end of the season are when the big prices are to be had. However, I’ll continue to bring this right up to date and see how it all pans out. And probably worth a comparison with last year. Also, if the first month or so is similar to this year, then we should also look at later in 2014 to see how we might get prepped for this year’s last couple of months of the flat.

Tigris, some good work there, which I see is comparable to my mini (but in depth!) examination.

 

Back soon… 🙂


Tigris

Gypsy Eyes won, but out of odds range….

-24 points today – running at -£3 as of today


Tigris

Two from my Maiden Stake System today:

14:00,Leic,Frock Coat 26.0
14:00,Leic,Gold Faith 17.0

Must be between 12.0 and 100.0 on Betfair just before the off.


Ray Thompson

Doing good there, Tigris. Maiden Stakes (NO single sex, funds or auctions attached to those two words, just the name of the Maiden Stakes) in May this year performed as follows:

There were 80 races that complied with the 16/1+ only (including horses that may have been less in the early betting but drifted out to at least 16/1, and those which could have been backed at early 16/1+ but ran at reduced odds). There were 309 possible bets across those races, returning 9 wins of 25/1,20/1,20/1,20/1,50/1, 25/1,16/1,50/1,20/1 to produce an ISP LOSS of 54 points.

Betfair paid 40,40,32,32,80,50,23,200,32 however, a resounding 503 points after commission – a PROFIT of 194 after losers and commission.

24 placers up to 66/1 (one at 100/1 which didn’t count!).

The +212 from 9 wins in April almost parallels the May result with same number of wins.

I’m off to visit the June results this afternoon!


Ray Thompson

….and June is a washout 🙁

From 84 qualifying races, 302 bets returned at SP – 28/1,33/1,20/1,25/1 for a LOSS of 192 points.

Betfair gave a minimum 50,100,90,40 back which after commision left a negative of 35.8 points. Note that I said “minimum”. Had you the time to get on really early, or pitched in when the money was better, then you would easily have cut that exchanges deficit of 35.8 back to around the zero mark, say 5 or so either side of Plus/Minus, but really, not enough to make you throw your hat in the air while screaming “Yee-haw!!!”

And actually, that would appear pretty stupid even when you ARE winning 🙂

I’ll probably get us right up-to-date tomorrow, but I am off to my half price Mondays cinema at lunch time. The Fantastic Four should appeal to all us comics nerds.

Have fun!


Tigris

Would have to play on Betfair very carefully I feel Ray….

Today I have:

14:30,Ayr,Raise A Billion
14:30,Ayr,Charava
16:00,Ayr,Little Belter
16:00,Ayr,Red Forever

Currently only Little Belter is in odds range.

Only a bet if between 15.0 and 43 just before the off.

Bank at -£3 today.


Ray Thompson

We seem to be singing from different pages of the hymn book. I’ve done these, all within the price range, but I’m being much more careful now, back down to £2 bets…

2.30 Kano’s Ghirl 50/1 ISP, taken 100 on Betfair
Bannock Town 66/1, taken 200
Penny Pursuits 50/1, 100 or BSP at the off

4.00 Two withdrawals mean the prices have altered but…
Little Belter was 20/1, I’m 32 before the WD
Mystical King was 33/1, I’m on 32 after the withdrawal

4.30 Next Edition 25/1, taken 50 BSP

Off to movies this p.m., back at tea-time (ish)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Have fun everyone!


finky1

try ayr cut down bets best ratings +horses priced 10/1 or better to 33/1
2 win betfair sp 2.30 raise a billion charavo
300 dark crystal
3.30 jinky
4.00red forever lady cordie
4.30 urbin moon mistitroc
5.00 spirit of the sea angelsabove
10 bets =20


Tigris

I think because of the low SR I am trying to reduce the number of bets, though I do have yours in my list, I am using some filtering to get down to fewer bets.

So only bet on my list is Little Belter, so would have just one bet today, unless prices move for others.


finky1

+24 today


finky1

tomorrow carlisl
2.45the westwalfan
3.50miss ranger /polly jackson
4.20 destination aim /moroco
17.25danny oruairc
lingfield
2.00bennelong
2.30 threebagsue
3.35spellmaker
5.25ladylunchalot /toptempo
11mbet at 2 bsp

no winners today -22


finky1

5.00 almoqatel/ diamond sam /lady pinnicalle
15.35 wind for power/ even stephan/ thatcherite
5.10 scorpio del cardo/ charles de mille /best boy
9x 2= 18 bsb tomorrow


Ray Thompson

July, with 50 more bets than June, still seems poor now with best result on wins at Betfair but still returning only 307 points to 352 bets, that’s minus 45 points overall. Place bets only on these sprang 43 returns at a profit of 29.50 BSP after commission. So, Flat Turf Maiden Stakes are pretty much similar to the Flat Turf Handicaps in that they are both very successful in late March, through April and early June, but seem to be in grip of the bookies’ price setters by mid-June.

Having said that, we’ve just had a 40/1 winner at Gowran Park with a 20/1 2nd paying just under 200 for the winner! Wow, that might tickle the August results nicely, the only previous winner being a 33/1 (60 BSP) this month. It’s all profit, folks!

My next job is to look at the results for Aug 2014 to the end of last year’s season to figure out the winning route through the cards for the rest of THIS year.

Also, a huge task, but as I know from my Jumps System worth it’s weight in gold, and that’s best/worst courses so far in the current year.

Enjoy Yourself! (Not just me who keeps saying that, it’s also the name of that 40/1 shot this evening!) 😀


Tigris

Tricky stuff Ray, still plugging away at my slimmed down systems I have one running on the Irish flat, but did not select the 40/1, still just had the winer of the 20:00 at GowP, got 19.0 on Betfair – Johann Bach, so very pleased with that. so was at -£3 to £2 point stakes, afar 5 bets since now at +£23

I’m still of the mind that this has to be a very tight system with few selections, I am running at about 3 or four a day, and some days none. So will persevere and see how I progress, I now have systems for UK Flat, UK Chase and UK Hurdle, IRE Flat and IRE Hurdle. I could not get the IRE Chase to work.


Tigris

Have three bets today, first one just won 🙂

Outlaw Kate 1730 FfosL @ 20.0 which brings it to +£50

other bets tonight are:

19.00 FfosL Bapak Bangsawan
20.00 FfosL Agreement

Have missed few due to slimmed down system but have reduced the number of losers, so far.

Good going tonight, Agreement just won @ 20.0 BPS, so 2/3 tonight.

Running total now +£88 @ £2 per bet.


Ray Thompson

I’ve done a chart of August to end of season (Nov 8th) 2014 from which the tracks with most wins (Handicaps 16/1-33/1 excluding top two and bottom weight/card numbers and Maiden Stakes 16/1 to 66/1) appear to be instantly discernible, but we have to subtract number of actual bets from the totals and that’s going to take me some time to count and record. Newmarket threw up 20 winners in the period Aug 1st to Nov 8th last year, but until we know how many bets in each race, including the losing races of course, we can’t say what the profit/loss is.

I’ve started on this task early this morning and am still in August! I’ll be back when it’s all done…


Tigris

Will be interesting to read your results, it will no doubt be the number of bets that determine if this is profitable angle.

I”ve been using my tools to look at the Maidens too, and have found these are quite tricky as little or no form to go on and simply backing all the big prices in every race does not look like a good strategy. With lots of tinkering I have come up with two systems that produce around 3 selections per day between them with SR’s of 10% & 13% respectively.

I have three selection tonight in the 17:30 at Newmarket:

Only bet if between 12.0 and 200 for:
Easy Code
Divertido

Only bet if between 12.0 and 100 for:
Al Hamd

To Betfair prices just before the off.


Ray Thompson

Still stuck in May 2014 to count every bet, but the best wins per track in Aug to 8th Nov of last season looks like this –

Nmk 20, York 12, Ayr 9, Cur 9, Not 9, Bri 8, Don 7, Hay 7, Ham 6, Red 6, San 6, Chs 5, Goo 5, Rip 5, Asc 4, Crl 4, then a few 3-2-1-0s.

Four of those have runners today and winners at this meeting last year (Saturday Aug 16th 2014). If you’d bet on every contender based on my figures: Handicaps 16/1 – 33/1 after discounting the top two and the bottom of the card, and Maiden Stakes (often just referred to as “Maidens” at Irish tracks) and INCLUDING EBF or ebf stakes (European Breeders Fund – contrary to my first impression!) at 16/1 – 66/1 without discounting any card numbers/weights, then this is what we see…

Chs 5 bets on 7 races – some no contenders, returned 1 win at 16/1, 25 BSP
Don 29 bets, 7 races, returned 16/1, 22 BSP
Nmk 7 bets, 7 races – some no contenders – ret 20/1 twice, 25 and 32 BSP
Rip 26 bets, 6 races, ret 20/1, 32 BSP

For 67 bets there was a return of 97 (+30) at ISP, 130 BSP after comm. (+63)

Now That’s what I call Music!

Back to the slog … although I’m seriously thinking of abandoning it and just comparing each day’s meeting with last year’s equivalent.

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

Saturday was seriously bad for me, even with the early Betfair prices. Four winners: Czabo was 33/1 yesterday morning and 60 on Betfair; Polar Forest 25/1, 32; Kastini 16/1, 24 and Syncopate also 16/1 and 25 BSP. And I’m £64 down 🙁

Pontefract today, but I’m leaving it alone as last year from August 1st to end of season it only produced three winners.

So we do not have a feasible system yet. Arrrgh!

#

Tigris

I did not have any of the winners yesterday, but only had 5 bets and with 3 from previous day losing that means I am +£72 @ £2 per bet. So have so far restricted the number of bets and the number of losers.

Today I have a few on the jumps, with the systems I developed based on your insightful writings Ray, here are mine for today:

UK_CHASE – only bet if ODDS between 17 & 34 BPS just before the off
15:00 Sthl Moorlands Jack
15:00 Sthl Owen Glendower
15:00 Sthl Montoyas Son

All three for Chase are currently out of odds range for a bet.

HRDL_HND_UK_ Only bet if ODDS between 15 & 40 just before the off
15:30 Sthl Jigsaw Financial
15:30 Sthl Mac Bertie
16:05 Sthl Factor Fifty
17:05 Sthl Monzino
17:05 Sthl Amber Flush
17:35 Sthl Exit To Freedom
17:35 Sthl Lawsons Thorns

17:35 Sthl Solway Trigger

For the Hurdles, only few at the moment are in odds range, but I included them so you can see if the prices change. Currently only three are in odds range (those in bold)


Ray Thompson

Sgt Bull Berry did the biz yesterday at 20/1, so I’m pleased to have taken the early doors 48 at Betfair. Nothing looks of interest today on the investment front, but I’m really looking forward to Wednesday and York, as I’m sure we’ll have a few big priced winners. First day last year saw winners Blaine at 12/1 (opened at 16/1 – PEAKED at 60 on Bf); Dutch Connection 16/1 (32) and Edge Of Sanity 25/1 (opened 33/1 – 55 Bf)

Keep your powder dry until then.

Have fun!


Tigris

Thought you'd have that one Ray, when it won, I thought that is Ray’s!

Had three yesterday but no winners, so running total stands at +£66

possibles for me today are:

1610 Thirsk Trinity Star
1640 Thirsk Brilliant Boy

Currently these are out of odds range of 15 to 43 just before the off.

Plus trying a system on the Irish Flat:

17:45,Rosc(IE),Bishan Bed
18:15,Rosc(IE),Corker Hill
18:15,Rosc(IE),Catchy Lass
18:45,Rosc(IE),A Twist Of Fate
18:45,Rosc(IE),Focas Mor

18:45,Rosc(IE),Grandma Dotty,
18:45,Rosc(IE),Sea Bank
18:45,Rosc(IE),Perfect Ten,
18:45,Rosc(IE),Mountain Kingdom,
18:45,Rosc(IE),Sacred Dragon,

18:45,Rosc(IE),Mozetta,

Currently only ones in Bold are in odds range of 16 to 33, so only five are potential bets just before the off.

Will be watching your system this coming week Ray as there will be a lot bets I suspect.


Ray Thompson

I had 24 short listed over the three handicaps at York today. I noticed the previous three years were all on good to firm going but now we’re good to soft. I removed the hard ground (F&GF) winners and close-up finishers and kept the GS and mud-monkeys. That leaves 14 selections over the three races. I’m going with them.

I’m leaving Carlisle and Ffos Las alone – Crl only had 4 winners with our requirements from August to end of season last year, Ffo only 3.

The big fields at York mean 4 places to anyone doing e/w or place only, but more selections if you’re win only like me.

Enjoy yourselves and don’t get too drunk when you win 🙂


Ray Thompson

Last year at York on day 2 Queen Of Ice won the 4.20 at 20/1, the year before the 3.05 produced Mont Ros at 25/1 (50 BSP). In 2011 the going, as today, was Good to Soft and Navajo Chief slid in at 25/1. Slow but steady profits are definitely possible – or should I say probable – at this excellent annual meeting.

Caspian Prince won at 20/1, early BSP was 40+, I got 36 and with my other 13 selections losing that was enough for a decent day’s work. Glad to see it was one of Matt’s selections too!

Only two handicaps today, I’ve got five possibles at each, including one shared by Matt’s selections today. MyBetfair asks are in brackets with the BSP option at the off (a bit like BOG, except you choose the top price)

3.05 Penitent 25/1 (50)
One Word More 33/1 (70)
Russian Realm 16/1 (25)
Extremity 16/1 (25)
Melvin The Great 22/1 (34)

4.55 Azagal 33/1 (70)
Alexandrakollontai 33/1 (70) (collar and tie, geddit?! – simples!)
Risen Sun 20/1 (32)
Margaret’s Mission 18/1 (28)
Subtle Knife 18/1 (28)

All winners/close-ups on GS-S except one never raced on GS or softer but won on Good, so unproven on this surface.

Enjoy!


Tigris

Well done Ray, I preferred to observe yesterday and today have a few at York i thought i would go with:

1505
Balducci
Fort Bastion
Penitent

And one at Stratford in the 1715
Aughcarra. See if the NH strategy is worth a go.

Will give Hamilton a look later as you say looks interesting.


Ray Thompson

No good yesterday but today’s races at both York and Sandown are of interest.

Mistiroc in York’s first (1.55) won on this Friday last year … a maiden at Hamilton! Others I’m on include Emerahldz, Pearl Castle and Buonarroti.

Today here last year the 4.20 Maiden was won by White Lake 25/1 and the 4.55 handicap by Master The World 16/1 (opened at 20s)

My short lists at Sandown are in 3.30 and 4.05 maidens and teensie bets on the outsider in each of the handicaps at 5.15 and 5.50

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Thankfully, My Dream Boat sailed in yesterday at 33/1, 60 BSP (touched 80s) and rescued me with plenty in the account now to finance today’s 50 selections at Chester, Curragh, Sandown and good ol’ York.

Today one year ago (Sat 23rd Aug) there were meetings at The Curragh and – obviously – the last day at York. Winners at Curragh included a 20/1 in the 2.35 maiden and 12/1 (16/1 all day before the off) in the 4.50 H/C. At York there were 2 winning H/Cs – 2.40 and 3.50 at 16/1 (opened 20/1) and 20/1.

I’m confident that THIS Saturday will be better than the last one!

Have fun! 🙂

P.S. Good filters: Wins at Curragh last year were ALL 16/1 or 20/1 except an early August 50/1 and a late season 25/1.
At York, the 8 August wins were all 16/1, 20/1 and 25/1. Late season were 20/1 and 3x 25/1.
ALL returned MUCH higher prices at BSP.

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

Another small profit yesterday. Today, in line with the filter mentioned yesterday, at Curragh I’m backing 16/1 and 20/1 runners ONLY in the four handicaps and the Maiden. There are six possibles at the moment, but the filter is based on ISP.

Because the early prices aren’t always the same at the off as they were earlier, and to tie in with last year’s results, I’ll be pushing the Betfair win buttons that correspond with the bookies prices of 16/1 and 20/1 to make that bit more profit.

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Small profit again yesterday. This evening’s two right-handers, Crl & Lei, have potential I think. Carlisle’s 4 wins last year in August were 16/1, 18/1, 20/1 and 22/1. Leicester only had three wins late last year but – oh boy! – they were biggies at 50/1 (95), 33/1 (60) and 33/1 (65).

By excluding the lefties and the really obvious no-hopers (gulp!), I’ve whittled the four bigger fields down to 3 max choices each, leaving 3 races with 2 selections and two with one pick each, a total of 12 bets.

I’ll put them up here later after I see how the weather/going is by tea time-ish but well before the off.

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

Crl 5.05 Petergate 25/1 40
Dalby Spoof 20/1 32
Highfield Lass 40/1 65

Crl 5.40 Jazzy 25/1 34
Seaperle 33/1 50
Silent Diva 16/1 24

Crl 6.10 Glen Lea 25/1 40
Macarthur’s Park 50/1 100

Crl 7.10 Under Approval 22/1 34
Pickle Lilly Pearl 18/1 29

Lei 5.25 Frank Cool 25/1 40
Demand Respect 40/1 65
Pastoral Star

Lei 5.55 Azizu 25/1 40
Tulip Dress 16/1 30

Lei 6.25 Captain Swift 16/1 25

Lei 6.55 Mininggold 16/1 24
David’s Beauty 25/1 48

Lei 7.55 Anastazia 18/1 28
Celtic Sixpence 20/1 32

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Dalby Spoof saved us with a reasonable profit!

Looking for a good swimmer today 🙂

A Maiden might be worth a small touch – just for a laugh, you understand – and A Definite Diamond at 100/1 currently (2.30 Chp) has my £2 at 220 on Betfair.

It definitely didn’t like the Good to Firm on it’s only turf outing.

Nothing else to say really, just hope they don’t abandon.


Ray Thompson

Much nicer day for racing with Catterick and Musselburgh this afternoon.

While Mus is better for H/Cs(H) than Maidens(M), Cat is equally good at either.

Mus 2.00M Duncan Of Scotland 20/1
Cat 2.10M Spike 20/1
Mo Wonder 33/1
Mus 2.30H Docali 20/1
Cat 2.40M Angrove Fatrascal 22/1
Anieres Boy 20/1
Bionic Indian 25/1
Mus 3.00H Searchlight 20/1
Cat 3.10H War Poet 25/1
My Destination 33/1
Mus 3.30H That Be Grand 20/1
Cat 4.10H Amis Reunis 16/1
Betty Boo 22/1
Mus 4.30H Geanie Mac 20/1
Mus 5.15H Galvanize 33/1
Perfect Peak 16/1

Only need ONE to show a profit on the day, and all that fun. Evening races next after I’ve had a little study. I’ve also got the 2014/2015 results and a comparison piece that should hopefully spark some more filters/winners. A look at 50/1+ winners – are they worth betting on? We’ll see.

Later! 🙂


Ray Thompson

During 2014’s turf flat racing season, 39 MAIDEN Stakes wins at 50+ were recorded on Betfair, for a return of 5,010 points. In the same season, 33 Handicap wins at 50+ BSP returned 2,467 points.

101 other Maidens won in the 16/1 to 40/1 range
237 other Handicaps won in the 16/1 to 40/1 range

What we need to know now of course is how many BETS were actually placed in those four categories and how much was returned from the lower two.

You’ll be pleased to hear I’m on it, but it’s quite time consuming and you’ll have to take them as I complete them from each month throughout 2014 so that we can do a detailed comparison with THIS year. I’ve already discovered that in April 2014 53 points could have been saved by NOT betting in any Maiden with an odds-on favourite.

More soon – tomorrow I expect.


Ray Thompson

G’day, and two Aprils to compare – actually starting from 29th March 2014 and 28th this year.

Last year’s Maidens in April (didn’t Josef Locke sing a song called that? 🙂 ):
543 bookie bets (none in races with an odds-on favourite) returned 306 points (-237) SP to 6 winners, but 773 bets on 9 races including those with odds-on faves at Betfair gave back a superb 430 points profit (408 after 5% commission).

This year’s April Maidens returned 13 winners at 343 SP from 118 bets (+225pts) with Betfair giving out 655 (+622.28 after comm)

This shows the importance of getting the best return on your investment. If you aren’t using Betfair, then make sure you use bookies offering B.O.G. In 2014 there were 194 more bets with odds-on favourites. Of those, only three gave system winners. They were at 100/1, 25/1 and 16/1, giving a huge loss on the 194 at SP. Betfair, however, paid 620, 48 and 24 for those three. Go figure.

Flat turf handicaps in the same period gave 460 bets from which, having struck off the bottom weight and the TWO top weights (top two and bottom one on the race cards), brought home exactly 500 on SP (plus 40pts) and 782 at Betfair, or 742.90 after comm, a profit of +282.90.

Before I start on each of the other months in the season, I thought we should look first at last September’s results in both those areas of possible profit in order to sharpen our tactics for the coming month.

More profit yesterday and hopefully as least as much today!

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

17 bets today, 4.55Y Haalan w.22/1, 38BSP (36.10 post comm) = 19.90 points profit today.

 

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