Ray previously authored Placed To Win

Genesis of a Betting System (Part 4)

We reach Part 4 in this mammoth series and, as we move into September 2015 with the Sinister System squad, things are hotting up with a new variant, the First and Last...

Part 1 can be read here, Part 2 here, and Part 3 here

**


Ray Thompson

2014 September results produced 35 wins within the parameters previously suggested, plus 9 winning races which fell foul of the exclusion of top two and bottom weights in handicaps (4) and maidens with odds-on favourites (5). This suggests some possible changes which I’ll come to after these figures for the month.

745 bets on flat turf handicaps supplied 24 winners which gave a return of 501 points at bookies’ SP, a loss of 204 pts (less with b.o.g. but a loss nevertheless). Betfair was little better with a return of 765, but 5% comm brought that down to 726.25 – a loss of 18.75 points. Overall, not good, but it helps me see improvements.

Maidens brought a better result, with a lot less bets and, again, some probable improvements. Exactly 300 bets returned 11 winners (not counting the excluded five mentioned in paragraph one). The return at SP would have been 343, a 43 points profit. Betfair was 644, or after comm 611.80, a whopping 311.80 points profit.

There were also 66 maiden bets where the race contained an odds-on fave. With one 33/1 winner this left an SP loss of 32 and a 6 point loss at BSP

I’m gonna sort out today’s bets now but I’ll be back with some more interesting stuff… have fun!


Ray Thompson

Another profitable day yesterday from Granny May if you got the early 70 at Betfair, or even the 33/1 at your bookies, but my heart goes out to any of you who still wait until closer to the off before putting your bet on. 12/1 it won at. Say no more.

I’ve been really busy sussing out the September stuff, so without further ado, let me introduce you to the “Magic Maidens” (copyright and trademark in the works 🙂 :

The really good news is that last September (2014) there were 49 Maiden races containing an odds-on favourite. Those races are absolutely useless to us in that by NOT betting on the contenders (16/1+) in those races, a huge amount of our money gets saved.

LESSON: Don’t put money on ANY race (Maiden or Handicap) that has an odds-on or evens or 11/10 fave. Yes, you’ll get the odd winner here and there, but you definitely will not make a long-term profit backing the usual suspects.

If I break the Maidens down into Maiden Stakes, Maiden Fillies/Mares, Maiden Colts/Geldings and Maiden Auctions, we get the following:

Maiden Stakes: 47 runners, 4 winners at 22/1 (36), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (60) and 16/1 (22). At early, b.o.g., and Betfair greater odds were to be had, but with those four basic prices the returns were 91SP, 143BSP, profits of 44 and 96 points

Maiden Fillies: 25 runners, 4 winners at 66/1 (150), 50/1 (95), 20/1 (34) and 25/1 (40). Basic returns were 171SP, 324BSP, profits of 146 and 299 points

Maiden C & G: 12 runners, 1 winner at 33/1 (40), profits of 33 and 39 points

Maiden Auctions: 15 runners, 1 win at 25/1 (38), profits of 25 and 37 points

And as a bonus – nowt to do with maidens – I mentioned some time ago and probably more than once that NH Flat races seem to pop up the occasional biggies. Here’s last September’s results: 19 runners, 3 winners at 40/1 (80), 33/1 (65) and 22/1 (38),
profits of 95 and 183 points

How’s THAT for a system? 343 at SP or 574 from Betfair in a month IS possible. Let’s hope this year’s September is at least equally generous.

Enjoy AND have fun!!!


Ray Thompson

By the way, before you ask, yes I’ll be pursuing flat turf handicaps here shortly, but for now I need to get today’s bets on!


catziis

This looks interesting Ray…. as a newbie that’s just found these posts, reading through 165 of ’em is going to be a bit daunting, but it looks tasty enough to start reading…. it’ll take me a week to get through ’em all, so don’t go away…..

Terry


Ray Thompson

Bukle was a nice winner yesterday at 32, 30.4 after comm. Another profitable day.

Hi, Terry, welcome aboard. You’ll only have to skim the earlier posts to see what we set out to attain, and the great achievement posted yesterday!

Handicaps for September last year are taking me a while to collate, but I’m targeting weight/position on race card, Age, Class, Going, Distance and a nod towards stall bias. If you Google “draw bias at (name of track)” you’ll find charts by distance, going (only G-GS, but that’s okay) and number of runners, all the things you guys suggested we incorporate into the search for winners. The only other thing, number of contenders (16/1 to 66/1 for Maidens, 16/1 to 40/1 Handicaps), I can fall back on my main area of NHS outsiders to comment on. By looking at ALL contenders, firstly the Sinister/Dexter rule is a good place to start with handicaps. Where the race isn’t a straight 5,6,7 or 8 furlongs the curve of the track, left or right, can save you backing against the contender’s preference. That, and a serious look at the trainer’s ability in handicaps, especially with first time out horses. Jockey/trainer combinations, the draw, your favourite colour if you must! (Please no). They should allow you to whittle away the real no-hopers and find a maximum of three for races with up to around 10-12 runners, and no more than FIVE for the real big fields of around 20+.

The first week of September 2014 tells me there were 6 winners at 20/1, 16/1, 33/1, 18/1, 20/1 and 20/1 again. I should point out here that one of the criteria for selections is the ISP, the Industry’s book as compiled by their so-called experts. Please don’t even consider trying to find a system based on Exchange (Betfair) prices. It can’t be done, simply because of the rapid fluctuations online, where you’re backing/laying against other punters. Betfair only gains a 5% commission from winning bets and the odds you see are there via automatic alteration with every bet/lay made. And THAT is why you can get such MASSIVE prices with them.

Other things of note from the first week are:
A. 2 wins from 2yos, 1 win each from 3,4,5 and 6+ year olds.
B. 2 wins from Class 3, 1 from C4 and 3 from C5/6. There are more C5/6 than 1,2,3 and 4 combined.
C. 3 wins on GS, 2 on GF and just 1 on Good. There are more races on Good going than GF and GS combined.
D. 1 win over 5f, 3 at 6f and 2 at 10f

That’s it for now. Tell me what you think. Author Douglas Adams said that the number 42 is the answer to everything. I hope today he’s right because that’s how many selections I’m on (with Betfair, of course!)

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

I seem to have lost yet another post. My ‘puter absolutely froze yesterday and I had to switch the whole kit and caboodle off. Seems okay today but it’s definitely going into the computer hospital soon as poss for a good clean out. Anyway, to business…

Doncaster and St Leger Fest is great fun; I used to go regularly back when I was (a) young and sprightly and (b) working and living in the Nor’east.

Donny’s a tricky track but the stats are there nevertheless.

First of all, forget any kind of system we’ve developed over the last few weeks, as it simply does not happen like this at Sunny Donny. It’s a bit like one of the infinite parallel worlds described in mathematical detail recently by a number of scientists of the Quantum Mechanics ilk. However, some things – as with all parallel worlds – are the same as ours, particularly in the mathematics arena. In this case, the draw is very important, especially when it comes to the straight mile vs the round mile (and longer):

Let’s list ’em all for simplicity:

5 and 6f – high draw favoured and horses with a liking for middle to up with the pace running.

7f High draw and middle-to-hold-up horses.

8f Straight – High draw and particularly on the rail with middle to hold-up being most successful.

8f Round – High draw again and although it’s a left hander there’s little or no bias to the inside (low) draw.

12f+ lead-to-middle runners do best and weirdly, from the high draw (Stand side) and middle.

The big priced winners at Legerfest pop in ANY kind of race, but seldom those with a 6/5 or less favourite. Depending on the going, there can be quite a lot of odds-on shots running, like last year when it was Good to Soft generally. I’ve cast an eye over the last five years here to see if we can still make a profit from outsiders and offer you this:

2010 Day 1 (Wed) 25/1 in a nursery and 22/1 in a conditions Stakes. Only one contender (16/1 to 33/1) in the first and two in the second. Both at 40+ available via Betfair.
Day 3 (Fri) 20/1 (50BSP!) in a handicap (7 contenders)
Day 4 (Sat) 16/1 (25) in a Group 2 Stakes (6 contenders)
Add another 24 contenders to the 16 above for ALL races except those containing an odds-on to 6/5 fave and that’s 40 points laid out for a return of 81 (148.25 post-comm BSP)

2011 Day 2. 20/1 (30). (11 bets/contenders)
Day 3. 16/1 (28) and 16/1 (22). (9 bets)
Add 60 to the 20 contenders to cover EVERY race (not o/o-6/5) and your 80 points outlay returned a mere 55 (minus 25 🙁 but a 3.6 profit (83.60) post-comm.

2012 Day 1. 16/1 (24) (only bet) and 20/1 (32) (6 bets)
Day 2. 22/1 (34) (8 bets) and 16/1 (28) (7 bets)
Day 4. 20/1 (28) (10 bets) and 16/1 (26) (one bet)
105 bets to cover every contending race returned 116 (+11) and 163.40 (+58.40 post comm)

2013 Day 2. a non-contending 100/1 winner (475+) boo-hoo!
Day 3. 18/1 (28) (1 bet)
Day 4. 16/1 (28) 11 bets and 20/1 (32) (only contender)
78 bets to cover all racing returned 57 (minus 21) and 83.60 after comm (plus 5.6)

2014 Day 1. 25/1 (38) (11 bets)
Day 4. 16/1 (24) (5 bets)
124 bets to cover every qualifying race returned 43 (minus 81) and 58.90 (-61.5)

2013 and 2014 were Good to Soft, 2012 GF then Good, 2011 and 2010 Good. This year it’s Good again and the first race has just banged in a 25/1 winner!

Have fun, hope the going stays good and remember NOT to back the contenders that don’t qualify via the draw bias or any with faves odds-on, 11/10 or 6/5

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

Has everyone gone to Donny? Or just nothing to say/share?

Good day yesterday with Show Legend returning 25/1, 38+ BSP.
My buddy The Captain says I should have emphasized that profits seen in previous years could easily have been maximised (and losses reversed or shortened) by using the draw bias and pace stats to eliminate the no-hopers. I’ve got 22 runners in the first five and the last races at Donny today. One win at the minimum 16/1 will show a profit on the day because my minimum bet on Betfair is 26.

Have fun!


Steve Walmsley

Hi Ray,

Not wishing to over critical but:

“7f High draw and middle-to-hold-up horses.”

Yesterdays result:

Show Legend – Drawn 3

Comments: Made all, pushed along 2f out and pressed, ridden inside final furlong, held on towards finish.

Completely contrary to the filters you have suggested for Doncaster?

Personally, since you first proposed the “Outsider Principle” I have taken the simplistic approach of backing everything in Handicaps at BFSP (top weight excluded) listed between 16 and 33 on the Sporting Life website at approx 12:30 daily.

My rationale is that the inherent edge built in to your idea (the occasionally massive increased returns from BF) is potentially negated by applying too many filters that will miss the complete shock results. Allied to this is the time required to plough through multiple handicaps on those days with half a dozen meetings.

Just for the record, sticking to £2 bets I am currently showing a profit of £470

Thanks very much for the original idea, my regular betting is based around following handicappers with proven winning form, set to perform under their ideal conditions. Afraid I am from the Clive Holt school of betting from the eighties. Reading the formbook every week to compile my lists, with suitable notes is a complete pain. This method is just so much fun – Look at prices, place bets, look again at the end of the day.


sondrio2

hi steve, just as a matter of interest you say you back everything at 16 – 33 at 12-30 to bfsp in h/caps as shown in the sportinglife, how many selections are you backing per day, obviously working for you with the profit you’ve made.
cheers george


Steve Walmsley

Just ran a quick search on settled bets for the last 30 days there were 1239 bets, across 368 Markets

So an average of 40 per day. I think the most on any one day was in the region of 100.

Net profit £273.89 for an ROI of 11%

Not bad for almost thought free betting.

Probably also worth noting that the biggest downswing was a loss of £280 across 30 markets, in the middle of August. So it can be fairly volatile.


sondrio2

not bad at all steve, thanks for sharing.

Ray Thompson

Hi Steve, quite right about yesterday’s draw bias not working at all, but it IS a bias rather than a rule or law. You’ll see in the earlier posts that my original was similar to your findings, and that I mentioned the other day the importance of the betting forecast – in my case with The Racing Post – for selections rather than trying to base anything on BSP alone.

My post yesterday said my minimum win from 22 bets would suffice, and it did indeed with one N/R and Mr Lupton winning at a mere 10/1. My 24.7 after tax and stake return left me a small profit of 3.7 points. I missed Realtra in my haste to “save money”, but as we’ve observed, the really big money is found during the early weeks of the system, with a huge bias to bigger (50+) Betfair prices in Maidens (last year 50, 50,130,50,120,65,180,140,50,75,200,70,55,70,150,120,75,50,50,200,95,60,60,50, 150,200,100,50,620,80,63,60,430,260,150,60,152,55,55,65,75,60) than Handicaps.

My 28th July post showed the difference between filtered and unfiltered during a specific period. Overall, a few mini-systems or (ir)regularities can be used for filters, one I mentioned last month being that all winners except two at the Curragh last year were either 16/1 or 20/1.

Please stick with us Steve, we need more people like yourself with an eye for good stats and a clear understanding of what I’m trying to achieve here.

Today, 23 bets from me, most races at Donny, Handicaps at Sandown and Chester and three biggies in Salisbury’s 7.30 Maiden.

Remember to have fun!


Ray Thompson

Two nice winners at Bath yesterday (Miss Minuty and Saint Lucy) kept the profits up.

Today I’ve got 12 runners at Brighton (five of them in the 4.00) and my NHS system suggests Maller Tree in the 2.50 at Strat. and in the 3.50 Minella Bliss and Lady Of Longstone but only minimum bets as they’re racing out of the jumps season.

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

Pinch A Kiss was as a nice starter on Monday at 25/1, I’d taken an early 36 at Betfair and that was the only winner for me. Two non-runners was a shame, but still a healthy profit on the day. Yesterday I drew a blank, having had high expectations of the qualifiers but that’s how things happen.

Couple of NRs already today from my picks and prices could be better at some tracks, but I am expecting a decent return on my investment and I’m still collating more info every day to ultimately see the big picture on flat turf outsiders.

Back soon.


Ray Thompson

Things definitely quieting off now, but here’s a low stakes/high return system that I’ve ironed out over 2010-2014 inclusive – 5 years of profit. And then a bonus!

Beginning each year on the Saturday of the Ayr meeting and including all turf flat races at all courses (i.e. not the all-weather, but yes to NH flat) and backing ONLY in the first and last race at each venue except when the race contains an odds-on to 6/5 favourite, here are each year’s results of 16/1+ winners:

2010 this day to END OF SEPTEMBER: 67 races returned 250 points to SP!!!

2011 ditto: 72 races returned 270 points to SP!!!

2012 ditto: 42 races returned 72 points to SP!

2013 ditto: 56 races returned 180 points to SP!!!

2014 ditto: 64 races returned 159 points to SP!!!

Imagine what Betfair paid! There’s more! Jumps races also came good with this system, also through to end of September:

2010: 33 races returned 174 points to SP!!!

2011: 35 races returned 110 points to SP!!!

2012: 22 races returned 42 points to SP!

2013: 21 races returned 55 points to SP!!!

2014: 22 races returned 102 points to SP!!!

Think what you’re going to do when you put these together. That’s right, you’re going to make money. Now nobody can be expected to pick the winner outright in these races, but by selective application of standout observations during the collating of the results over that five year period, we can whittle down our selections to a manageable number. This afternoon or early evening, I’ll have a list up for you of the best and worst days each year (2012 was down to hideous weather and therefore becomes a bit of an anomaly). I’ll mention now though that the 1st day of each year (a Saturday equivalent to today) went as follows:

NO JUMP selections have won over the five years on this first day, so just concentrate on FLAT TURF (incl. Flat NH):

Saturdays: Apart from 2011 where 6 races did zilch, ALL other Saturdays produced winners.

Have fun!


MrsSponge

Thanks for all this Ray. Looks interesting. Will definitely keep my eye on it.


Ray Thompson

Sorry I couldn’t post up the rest of the month pointers yesterday, grandson came to stay while mom (my daughter) went off up to London to see Florence and The Machine. However, each day’s results coming up. Great day yesterday with First and Last (Henceforth “F&L”) popping in at Ayr with a 50/1 winner (150 BSP!) and Nmk finishing with a 16/1 shot (27 BSP). If you also followed everything at Ayr as suggested, you had Shaden 16/1 (30) and Tatlisu 18/1 (28) to add to the bank.

Each year from Saturday of Ayr Gold Cup (DAY 1) to end of month had a different number of days of course, with 2010 at 13 days, 2011 14 days, 2012/9, 2013/10 and 2014/11.

2010 Day 1 – 2 jumps races returned zero, 10 others returned 34 points at ISP

Your first 30 days for just £1

2010 Day 2 (today!) 4 Jumps races returned 67 points; 3 others returned 0. ***After this day ZERO jumps returned from 4 races (16 in all) in each year’s Day 2.***

2010 Day 3 (Monday) 2 Jumps rtn 47 pts; 2 others rtn zero

2010 Day 4 (Tues) 2 Jumps rtn 0; 4 others rtn 21

2010 Day 5 (Wed) 3 Jumps rtn 0; 5 others rtn 0

2010 Day 6 (Thur) 3 Jump rtn 34; 2 others rtn 0

2010 Day 7 (Fri) 2 Jumps rtn 26; 4 others rtn 21

2010 Day 8 (Sat) 4 J rtn 0; 8 others rtn 38

2010 Day 9 (Sun) 4 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 38

2010 Day 10 (M) 2 J rtn 0; 5 others rtn 0

2010 Day 11 (Tu) 2 J rtn 0; 3 others rtn 0

2010 Day 12 (W) 3 J rtn 0; 9 others rtn 38

2010 D13 (30th) 0 Jumps races; 5 others rtn 60

Coming up: other years filtered.

Must look at my selections now and do the thing with them… 🙂


Ray Thompson

2011 Day 2 (today) 4 Jumps races rtn 0; 6 other races rtn 17 pts

2011 Day 3 (Mon) 2 J rtn 0; 5 other rtn 0

2011 Day 4 (Tu) 2 J rtn 0; 2 other rtn 142 pts

2011 Day 5 (W) 4 J rtn 21; 5 other rtn 0

2011 Day 6 (Th) 4 J rtn 47; 6 other rtn 17

2011 Day 7 (F) 3 J rtn 0; 6 others rtn 23

2011 Day 8 (Sat) 3 rtn 0; 9 others rtn 0

2011 Day 9 (Sun) 2 rtn 0; 6 others rtn 17

2011 Day 10 (M) 2 rtn 0; 7 other rtn 0

2011 Day 11 (Tu) 2 rtn 0; 4 others rtn 0

2011 Day 12 (W) 2 rtn 0; 9 rtn 0

2011 Day 13 (Th) 2 rtn 21; 2 others rtn 55

2011 Day 14 (F) 5 rtn 21; 3 others rtn 0
………………………………………..
2012 Day 1 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 7 other rtn 51;

2012 Day 2 (today) 4 J rtn 0; 2 other rtn 21

2012 Day 3 (Mon) 2 J rtn 0; 6 other rtn 0

2012 Day 4 (Tu) 2 J rtn 21; 4 other rtn 0

2012 Day 5 (W) 3 J rtn 21; 3 others rtn 0

2012 Days 6 – 9 incl. 9 J rtn 0; 19 other 0
……………………………………..
2013 Day 1 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 9 others rtn 63

2013 Day 2 (today) 4 J rtn 0; 4 others rtn 0

2013 Day 3 (Mon) 0 J races; 6 others rtn 21

2013 Day 4 (Tu) 3 J rtn 0; 4 others rtn 58

2013 Day 5 (W) 2 J rtn ); 4 others rtn 0

2013 Day 6 (Th) 0 races; 6 others rtn 0

2013 Day 7 (F) 4 J rtn 38; 6 others rtn 0

2013 Day 8 (Sat) 3 J rtn 0; 6 others rtn 38

2013 Day 9 (Sun) 0 races; 5 others rtn 0

2013 Day 10 (M) 1 J rtn 17; 6 others rtn 0
……………………………………….
2014 Day 1 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 26

2014 Day 2 (Sun) 4 J rtn 0; 8 others rtn 0

2014 Day 3 (M) 0 J races; 4 others rtn 0

2014 Day 4 (Tu) 2 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 0

2014 Day 5 (W) 2 J rtn 0; 4 others rtn 55

2014 Day 6 (Th) 2 J rtn 81; 4 others rt 0

2014 Day 7 (F) 3 J rtn 21; 4 others rtn 0

2014 Day 8 (Sat) 2 J rtn 0; 9 others rt 34

2014 Day 9 (Sun) 0 races; 5 others rtn 21

2014 Day 10 (M) 2 J rtn 0; 5 other rtn 23

2014 Day 11 (Tu) 3 J rtn 0; 7 others rtn 0
…………………………………….

And that’s yer lot me hearties!! Pick the bones out of ’em and report back to me with changes and/or filters as soon as yer like after sparrowfart termorra. Arr, me boys, there be lots of treasure in them thar stats!


Ray Thompson

No takers, eh? Well, here’s some great news; as I said very early on this thread, beginning and end of the season are more likely to produce outsiders than the middle of season. I’m compiling the last five years of OCTOBER now (and start of Nov, but it’s only a few days in until the official last day of the flat (always the day of the November Cup at Doncaster). We’ve seen how the start of the season went, the last few weeks should be equally profitable or even a lot better.

I’ll get the rest of the figures out here as soon as I’ve completed them.

Stay happy!


Ray Thompson

The Autumn Equinox on 22/23 September each year appears to be about the start of the deterioration of winners at the popular end of the betting forecasts (and actual prices at the off) as more and more outsiders make their presence felt. There are also some big fields, which in turn mean a lot of contenders in each race. It’s difficult to find filters when a single 100/1 win every month or so returns high hundreds – and even 1,000/1 plus at Betfair. To catch these huge outsiders means having to bet on every eligible nag in every race, but as you’ll see, this need not be too painful once your bank is up and running. Yesterday for instance, I had a nerve-wracking afternoon after I’d placed 75 bets on at £2 each at Betfair. £150 is a lot to part with when there are so many races/runners on the day. However, my confidence in doing that was restored by the end of racing with five winners returning exactly double my original stake. Well, actually, after 5% commission was removed it was £285 added to my account, but still a decent £135 profit.

Anyway, let’s get ourselves into my TARDIS and I’ll take you for a spin back to 2010 for a look at the returns from all races containing contenders for the big prize. After my discoveries on this trip through time and race(s) I’ve seen things mere mortals could only dream of! Oh, hang on a mo’, erm, that was actually Roy Blatty in Blade Runner wasn’t it? Back to reality *cough*, and my decision to split First + Last (FL* on the grid) from Maidens, Handicaps, All-Weather and NH flat. You might be surprised at some of these, but you’ll recall that after specifying Flat TURF only, I mentioned a couple of times that other races (AW + NH Flat) sprang up with some massively priced winners in the first few weeks of the season. Well, they’re there at the last few weeks as well.

These are the complete results for 23rd Sept to November 6th in 2010. The First and Last are of particular interest for anyone who might be just getting into this or don’t wish to cover a whole day’s races. The F+L are indicated by an asterisk and refer to any contenders in the first and last race at each qualifying meeting of the day. I’ve some notes after these figures which will give you an idea of the sort of returns we’re looking at.Betfair prices are bracketed, and my, don’t some of them look fine!?!

2010 September 23rd: 16/1* (22), 16/1* (22), 20/1* (32). 24th: 20/1 (32), 21* (30). 25th: 20/1* (32), 20/1 (30),16/1 (24), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (24), 16/1* (25). 26th: 20/1* (32), 16/1 (22), 16/1* (23), 20/1 (32). 27th: 16/1 (46), 25/1 (42). 28th: 50/1 (70), 66/1 (140). 29th: 16/1 (24), 20/1* (32), 33/1 (240). 30th: 33/1* (65), 25/1* (40), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (25), 16/1* (26).

2010 Oct 1st: 16/1 (32), 16/1 (26), 20/1* (32), 20/1* (34), 25/1* (40), 16/1* (24), 25/1* (48) . 2nd: 20/1* (32), 16/1 (25). 3rd: 25/1* (40), 25/1 (40). 4th: 16/1* (23), 16/1* (25), 33/1* (70); 5th: 16/1* (25), 33/1 (70). 6th: 25/1 (40), 33/1 (70), 16/1 (25), 66/1* (250). 7th: 22/1* (36), 40/1 (65), 16/1 (25), 25/1* (55), 16/1* (25). 8th: 33/1 (65), 28/1 (55), 16/1 (25), 18/1 (28), 25/1 (50). 9th:

Sorry, just realised it’s my swim night; I’m sure you get the gist of this, back tomorrow to complete through to this year.


Ray Thompson

So, where were we? Ah, yes…

2010 Oct 9th: 20/1* (32), 25/1* (50), 40/1 (82), 16/1, (28). 10th: 25/1 (40), 28/1 (120), 20/1* (55), 20/1 (32), 20/1 (30). 11th : 20/1 (32), 25/1 (40), 50/1* (85), 16/1 (23). 12th: 16/1* (22). 13th: 20/1 (30), 16/1* (25), 20/1* (32), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (22), 16/1 (22). 14th: 16/1 (24), 20/1 (34), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (65), 16/1 (24), 16/1* (25). 15th: 16/1 (25), 18/1 (28), 66/1 (130). 16th: 25/1 (40), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (25). 17th: 20/1 (32), 16/1* (25), 25/1* (38), 22/1 (36), 25/1 (40). 18th: 22/1 (34), 20/1* (32), 20/1* (34). 19th: 16/1 (24), 20/1 (38), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (23), 25/1* (50). 20th: 33/1 (55), 20/1 (30). 21st: 16/1* (25), 33/1* (55), 40/1* (80). 22nd: 33/1 (65), 16/1* (25). 23rd: 16/1 (24), 28/1 (48), 33/1* (50). 24th: 50/1* (100), 25/1 (40), 28/1 (42). 25th: 16/1 (23), 25/1 (36). 26th: 33/1 (65), 20/1* (50), 33/1 (200), 16/1* (40). 27th: 16/1* (20), 20/1 (32), 20/1 (32). 28th: 25/1 (48), 16/1 (34), 25/1* (60), 66/1 (140), 33/1 (55), 25/1 (36), 16/1* (32). 29th: 80/1* (120), 16/1 (22), 16/1 (24), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (24), 200/1 (1,000) Yes, REALLY!), 22/1 (36). 31st: 20/1 (32), 16/1 (24).

Nov 1st: 20/1* (28). 2nd: 40/1* (85). 3rd: 33/1 (40), 22/1* (40), 20/1* (30). 4th: 16/1* (25), 20/1 (34). 5th: 16/1 (20), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (22). 6th: 20/1 (45), 16/1 (22), 18/1 (28), 33/1* (160), 25/1 (40), 18/1 (25). 2011 next.

85 bets yesterday (£170) returned 254.60 after comm, a profit on the day of £84.90 from three winners. Great, innit? 🙂

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Seven winners yesterday gave back profits of 49 pts SP and 130.15 (£260.30) after comm at Betfair.

2011 Sept 23rd: 16/1 (25), 22/1* (50), 20/1 (32). 24th: 20/1 (30), 25/1 (40), 40/1 (60), 16/1 (25). 25th: 16/1* (65), 25/1 (40), 16/1 (22). 26th: 20/1 (32), 20/1 (32). 28th: 16/1 (25), 16/1 (23), 16/1 (25), 16/1 (24). 29th: 33/1* (44), 18/1 (30), 20/1* (30), 20/1 (32), 16/1 (24). 30th: 22/1* (44), 25/1 (50), 20/1 (32), 20/1* (36).

Oct/Nov to follow…


Ray Thompson

…..and concluding 2011.

Oct 1st: 20/1* (30), 16/1 (32), 16/1 (24), 25/1* (40), 33/1* (60), 28/1* (50). 3rd: 18/1* (28), 16/1 (24). 4th: 16/1* (25), 16/1 (23), 20/1 (34). 5th: 16/1 (20), 20/1 (30). 6th: 25/1 (40). 7th: 25/1 (42), 28/1* (44). 8th: 25/1* (40), 25/1 (46), 20/1 (32), 25/1 (42), 20/1 (32), 20/1 (32). 9th: 20/1* (32), 25/1* (50), 40/1 (82), 16/1 (28). 10th: 18/1* (28), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (50), 28/1* (40), 40/1 (90), 16/1 (22). 11th: 25/1* (40). 12th: 16/1* (22), 28/1 (40), 16/1 (25), 25/1 (40), 20/1 (32), 40/1 (120). 13th: 16/1 (23), 16/1 (24), 33/1 (75), 20/1* (32), 20/1* (30), 16/1* (23). 15th: 18/1* (32), 25/1* (42), 16/1* (24), 16/1* (25). 16th: 16/1* (22). 17th: 16/1* (23), 16/1 (24), 16/1* (25). 19th: 20/1 (32), 16/1 (22), 20/1 (32), 25/1 (42). 20th: 25/1 (40). 21st: 33/1 (100), 16/1*(25), 33/1 (50), 20/1 (30), 28/1 (44), 16/1 (23), 25/1 (40). 22nd: 25/1 (40). 23rd: 50/1 (100), 20/1* (32). 24th: 16/1 (24), 20/1 (30), 16/1 (25), 33/1 (70). 26th: 20/1 (32), 100/1 (300), 20/1 (30), 33/1 (60), 25/1 (38). 28th: 33/1 (60), 18/1 (28), 16/1 (21). 29th: 20/1* (32), 20/1 (30), 16/1* (24), 16/1 (22).

Nov 1st: 20/1* (32). 2nd: 16/1 (22), 20/1* (32), 20/1 (32). 3rd: 16/1 (25), 16/1 (23), 22/1 (36), 40/1 (80). 4th: 16/1 (24), 50/1 (360), 22/1* (34), 22/1 (36). 5th: 20/1* (30), 16/1 (22).

I could continue with 2012, ’13 and ’14 but they’re really all quite similar, so to save time let’s go straight to the basics. For the above, we see 32 hits on F+L* only and a further 56 on Maidens, Handicaps, All-Weather and Flat NH. We’ll call them MHAF hereafter. They come down from BSPs of 360, 300, 100 etc so BIG profits.

2012 saw 44 wins F+L and 62 MHAF incl. BSPs of 200, 130, 120, 110×2, and loads more in 80s, 70s, 60s and beyond
2013 saw 37 F+L and 54 MHAF inc. BSP returns of 170, 140, 100, 95 and the rest lesser amounts down to the 20s
2014 gave 46 F+L and 52 MHAF incl. 200, 190, 100, etc. and let us not forget that 1,000 payback from Betfair in 2010 (if only we’d known then … blah blah blah)

Any questions?


Nessie123

Evening,
I’m quite new to this post so please bear with me.
I’m I looking to back any horse that is 14/1 or over in handicap flat turf races,discarding the top two weights and the bottom weight?
Is this about right for the basics?
Cheers
Andy


Ray Thompson

Hi Andy, nearly there. Any of the following that are 16/1 or greater in the bookies’ betting forecast, but put them on with Betfair, where much higher odds are achievable (see some of the results above for comparison – especially with the big prices). The top two and bottom don’t seem to be a problem in the first and final weeks of the season (which includes NOW):

All flat turf Handicaps PLUS Maidens, All-Weather, and National Hunt FLAT races (bumpers).

For folks who don’t have the time to spare (or the money initially!) I’d suggest starting with our First And Last system, which involves backing all 16/1+ horses in the F+L race at EVERY course each day (Including any jumps meetings)

Yesterday, to an outlay of 128 bets, 6 races returned PROFITS of 11 points to SP or a massive 76 points fromBetfair (£144.40 to minimum £2 stakes after commission)

I have 54 selections today, having used draw bias filters on the really big fields.

Enjoy!


sondrio2

hi ray, are there any race number criteria, or is it just any horse over 16/1 forecast price.
thanks
george


Nessie123

Ray,
Can I confirm that at this time of year to include all the weights in handicaps including top two and bottom weights? (Providing the price conforms).
Also,can I ask? A/W races, are they just the handicaps or all races included?
Cheers
Andy
PS Can anyone advise me on what sites you use to gather the relevant information?


Nessie123

Friends,
I tried this system on the Handicap races today,I had 16 bets,one winner,LIL SOPHELLA 4.10 MUSS.
Does this just about tally with what anyone else did today?
Also,where are the relevant prices coming from,the betting sites (odds checker) or the tissue prices under the racecard?
Cheers
Andy


Ray Thompson

G’day Andy and George (Were you WHAM!???). The field criteria I use is initially that the number of horses at 16/1+ should be around a third if there are lots of runners. If there are more than a third (e.g. one race today has 16 runners and ten of them are 16+) then look at the draw bias for that course and distance and apply accordingly. Search Draw Bias At … (Name of course)… and options will appear. They can be very useful in discounting the disadvantaged runners. If you’ve still got more than the third needed, then use your judgement/knowledge on which to include. I tend towards past and recent performance (Form) obviously checking out the sinister/dexter suitability of horse and course, although I know a lot of you prefer Trainer stats or trainer/jockey combos. Whichever suits you is the way to go.

AW races are all capable of producing big-priced winners. Irish courses often show HUGE differences in the SP criterion price and the actual Betfair payout with 20s coughing up 100, 16s paying 50 and so on.

I use my old familiar sites, but. I’ve begun integrating Geegeez cards and info recently as it’s been developing and it really is evolving into a superior species.

Tissue prices at the bottom of the race card are first port of call for me along with developing bookie prices alongside each runner. If, say, a runner that was 16/1 slips to 14/1 with the industry, I will still back the selection if Betfair still has 20+ about it. In all the tables above this post I’ve included winners that were 16+ISP until dropping to 14s or 12s just before or at the off.

I had only two winners yesterday: Tylery Wonder at Curragh and Lil Sophella at Muss, both handicaps. A tiny post-comm profit of £13.40. Hoping to do better today with 81 bets (£162) laid out.

Have fun!


Nessie123

Morning Ray,
Hope you had a decent day yesterday.
Can I ask you to confirm that what I am looking at is the same as you?

All flat turf handicaps and maidens.
All A/W races (regardless of what type of race).
All NHF races.
All Irish handicaps and maidens.

Cheers
Andy


Ray Thompson

Spot on there Andy. As we proceed into Oct and Nov more and more winning outsiders will become evident. Stick to the basics (more or less) and you can’t go wrong. As confidence increases with returns, soon you’ll feel like a veteran at the game as you just do everything automatically. But any questions – I’m always here.

Five winners yesterday, the first of which I’d backed in the morning as usual at 38 when the ISP was 25/1. It got seriously backed in the afternoon in to 11/1! That was Harrison Stickle. Others were Catalina’s Diamond in the last at Bath, Jacob’s Pillow at 24 when it was 16/1, won at 12/1 and Archipelago at Hamilton, and a lovely 33/1 (65 BSP early doors) at Roscommon. My profit on the day was just under £200 after comm. (£197.10).

79 bets this morning at Ayr, Fairyhouse and Wolvs AW; was more but seems to be a few non-runners today! Also a few (10) over the jumps today that I have a separate system for. If you want to keep an eye on them, here they are, but just watch as the jumps season proper doesn’t actually start until November.

Sed 2.00 HH. Mister Hendre
Sed 2.30 MH. Rocky Two
Sed 3.05 HC. Prince Blackthorn
Sth 3.30 HH. Prince Of Silver
Sed 3.40 HH. Key Account
Sth 4.05 HH. Optical High
Sed 4.15 HC. Dover The Moon
Sed 4.50 F. Kicking Lilly, Skiddaw Poppy and Knysna Bay

Have a great day!


Nessie123

Hi Ray,
I must have missed a couple yesterday,I didn’t do the Irish races ( I have today) and I also missed Catalinas Diamond.
I assume it must have been under 16/1 on the tissue prices (Sporting Life) the night before racing as I have to use these pointers because of work commitments.
I’m still happy though.
Andy


Ray Thompson

Losses from only two winners yesterday ran to £49.70 after comm. Would have been a lot more if I hadn’t taken 32 available in the morning when bookies had Lily’s Prince at 20/1 (won at 8/1). Today’s 88 picks should prove a lot better (he says worriedly *gulp!*)

Time to turn on the telly…

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