Ray previously authored Placed To Win

Genesis of a Betting System (Part 5)

Part 5 brings us to October, and the changing of the seasons, a time when the forum systemites - or system forumites - have high hopes of yielding higher profits...

If you need to catch up, Part 1 can be read here, Part 2 herePart 3 here, and Part 4 here.

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Ray Thompson

Small profit yesterday from the First and Last at Kem AW with Red Cossack at 25 and Isdaal at 55, plus Whisky Galore at Sligo, EP 20/1 (32) won at 12/1. Isdaal ran from the wrong stall btw, with no word from the Stewards room afterwards. Perhaps they didn’t notice what they’re paid to notice? Whisky Galore was a jumps bet, which I failed to notice wasn’t posted here 🙂
No shows from my 32 selections at Nottingham, which is a bit surprising as it’s one of the top system venues with 30 outsider winners last season (2014).

Today we have Beverley – only seven winners last year BUT two of them returned 120 and 65 with Bf.

Chelmsford (Cfd) is in it’s first year as an official track and it’s markedly different to the track (Great Leighs) it replaced, but we do have results for this year and it appears to be similar to every other track: 5 wins at 25, 50, 48, 34 and 25 in the first few weeks of the season (late March to early May), only one win in June (16/1 = 24) and many meetings but ZERO wins until September, when strikes at 16/1 (30), 16/1 (32), 16/1 (23), 25/1 (50) and 16/1 (22) brought the track back into being profitable.

The other three venues are jumps meetings, for which I’ll give you my system selections with the relevant data for each track in previous years and the knowledge that the regular big winners usually commence in November.

Bangor outsiders generally arrive regularly in Nov + Dec then disappear until near the end of the jumps season. Bangor is +153 points (82 Chase, 71 Hurdle)

Clonmel has a strong big-priced strike rate in March and April +42 points (-3 Chs, +45 Hdl)

Warwick’s favoured period for the rags is Dec-Mar when +48 pts (+12 Chs, +36 Hdl)

That probably doesn’t look too inviting, but random outsider wins do occur er… randomly?…..in other months

I have four at Bangor, Camachoice and Maoi Chinn Tire in the 3.25 and Miss Tiger Lily and Omgnotanother. A further 16 at Clonmel and ten at Warwick make up my jumps bets for today. I haven’t finalised my summer flat bets yet, but there are 21 at Bev. Cfd is the venue I’m struggling with to not have too many bets, but it all looks good so far (FLW).

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Minus 78 points yesterday with not a single winner puts a dent in the bank. Here we are today hoping the Saturday Curse doesn’t strike! I’m just about to look at the cards and I’ll come back to you with what I’m doing when I’ve sorted out the possibilities.

P.S. Just noticed that my post from yesterday isn’t here. I suspect that I wrote it all out then forgot to hit the submit button! Another senior moment… 🙁


Steve Walmsley

Time for an update on 2 full months of data.

Headlines First (detailed analysis to follow later)

Flat Handicaps (incl. AW) from 1 August to 30 September
All bets at Betfair Minimum £2.00

Total Nr of Bets: 2525
Winners: 111
Total Staked: £5050.00
Profit at BFSP: £617.70

More than respectable results, but there are some horrendous downswings, the most extreme was a loss of 219 points (£438.00) in a 10 day period between 14 and 24 September.

Thanks Ray, £300 per month for 10 minutes a day and almost zero effort seems like a good deal.


Ray Thompson

Cheers, Steve. The hard bit was working out what, when and how, but once that was done it’s pretty much a doddle. Steve said a while ago that the way to go is to just back everything eligible in each race, and while I’m inclined to agree I still have a gut feeling there’s something not yet right. I thought initially that really strong faves, 5/4 and less, really knocked the stuffing out of the usual suspects, but on closer inspection it becomes clear that the tighter the favourite, the BIGGER the other prices. So okay, you might lose a dozen or more due to odds-on shots, but when you beat those yukky faves it’s often those biggies – 25s, 33s 50s and more that just wipe out all those losses in an instant, particularly when the BFSP can be double, treble and more than ISP.

Yesterday was nice with two at Gowran and Nolecce in the last at Wolves. We’ve only got jumps today and 35 contenders over four courses should return something. Huntingdon has been good to me over the years with last year’s +60 points on Hurdles and “only” +13 on Chases (+346.75 to fivers), Kelso +29 Hurdles and +17 Chases, Tipperary +94 Hurdles, +16 Chases, and Utt +105 Hdls but MINUS a whole 2 points on Chases!

I’m off car-booting now, see ya’ll later.

Ray.

P.S. I’m away at a Grateful Dead thing from Wed to Sat next week, so worry not at my absence!


Ray Thompson

A superb win in the first at Utt yesterday when Royal Sea popped in at 40/1 and a surprising 138 at BFSP (although it peaked at well over 200 if anyone was monitoring!).

Today I have half a dozen at Meerkat Racing (as it’s endearingly called by certain ATR pundits) –

Mar 3.15HH Sinbad The Sailor 25/1, To Begin 22/1 and Come On Sunshine 22/1
Mar 3.50HC The Society Man 20/1
Mar 4.25HC Cara Court 20/1
Mar 4.55F Bling Noir 40/1
Market Rasen is +44 on Chases and +22 for Hurdles, I’ve only recently include NH Flat and so don’t have enough information yet to formulate meaningful results.

A further 19 at Pon and 28 at Wdr complete today’s investments. Ponte has had 11 wins (4Mdn, 7Hc) with two of the Mdns at 620 and 80 BFSP
Windsor has produced 15 winners (3Mdn, 12Hc) with highs of 70 (Mdn) and 65 (Hc) BFSP


Nessie123

Evening Ray,
Some good results yesterday and hopefully you earned a pretty packet today.
I didn’t have time to bet today due to a prior engagement but I’m back on it tomorrow,hopefully this weather will hang around as it seems to throw up some very interesting results.
Andy


Ray Thompson

Nothing on the jumps yesterday, but wow!, what a great day on the flat, especially the three at Ponte, with Top Beak at Windsor the icing on the cake. My 42 bets (answer to everything) after the five NRs made me an after-comm profit of £337.80.

98 flat bets today *gulp* and 21 on jumps at Tipperary (Stats – SR 16% HHrdls, 13% HChs; Points profit +94 Hdl, +16 Ch; October wins 40%)!

I’ll try to report in after racing, but I’m off to beautiful Fowey for a few days in the morning, so might be a bit busy packing tonight.

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Quick note before I leave: 6 winners yesterday, profit after commission: +£193.80. 5 non-runners.

Important observation: grab early prices at Betfair for everything 16/1 – 33/1, BUT select BFSP AT THE OFF for anything 40/1+

See you in a few days!


Ray Thompson

A profitable week, some huge prices from Betfair, and welcome back me! Where’s my party? 😉 64 bets today and the payouts have been getting bigger as the week went on so I’m expecting good returns again today from the UK and Irish tracks (2 meets at each). Let us know how you’ve been getting on lately.

Cheers!

Ray


Nessie123

Afternoon Ray and welcome back friend.
I’m in the Algarve all this week with the wife so not much betting for me but I’ll be back in the swing when I get back.
I have noticed some very big priced winners going in though.
Andy


sondrio2

ive noticed the same nessie, im going to have to get involved in this.


Ray Thompson

George, I’ve ran my jumps system for six years. It’s based on the old Tail End System, but sculpted to suit my requirements. It has been handicaps only, differentiating between Chases and Hurdles, and selecting ONE horse only for most races (occasionally 2, but not often) but I’ve recently been including NH flat races (bumpers) in the summer system we’ve devised here, to great success! I’m now trialing our flat selection process – backing everything showing at 16s+ on the NH, including Maidens, and it appears to be working (2 of yesterday’s 4 winners were NH, one Hcp Hdl and t’other a bumper).

Yesterday’s 4 winners were at 10/1 (16/1 EP) 25 Bf, 16/1 (22 EP) 36 Bf, 25/1 (25s EP) 40 Bf and 33/1 (from 16s EP) 55 Bf. To £2 stakes that’s a profit of £48 to ISP, £296.40 BFSP after comm.


sondrio2

thanks ray, great explanation mate.


Ray Thompson

From 76 bets yesterday at £2 each £252.70 was returned after comm by Betfair, giving a profit of £100.70. A great day, in spite of Windsor losing all 30 bets there. You needed to be on B.O.G. or early prices to get the returns I did, although more could have been made by diligent monitoring I’m sure. ISPs were crap at Salisbury with two 10/1 winners which were 18/1 and 20/1 early doors. Sedgefield had a nice 25/1 and a poor 8/1 SP after morning opening at 20s each.

I’ve got 117 bets today, which is £234 at Betfair, but it’s a while since a losing day. I know for newbies that can be a huge layout, but doing a “First & Last” bet is £90 with my selections (45 points)

Whatever you do, remember … have fun!


sondrio2

hi ray, well done for yesterday, when you say a first and last what does this mean, is it the first horse at 16/1 and the last horse with the biggest odds
thanks george


Ray Thompson

Participant
(2.24.173.246)

F+L are first and last RACE at each meeting that qualifies, George. I mentioned a few times earlier here that for nervous beginners it’s a good way to have less bets but still produce steady profits. By some quirk the F+L come up with more of the bigger priced winners than stats would suggest, but remember this is only in the first and last few weeks of the season.


Ray Thompson

I just HAD to tempt fate didn’t I? “It’s been awhile since a losing day”, I said on Tuesday and good ol’ Fate saw a chance to seriously bite my arse, which she did!
Two losing days in a row is not fun. Sorry Fate, I remorsefully apologize and plead with you to make things nice again…

Your first 30 days for just £1

Ray Thompson

Thank you Fate for making things nice again! A handful of good-sized prices meant we’re back on track with a profit that cancelled out the two losing days and upped the bank a bit. LOTS to look at today and I’m quite late starting after a slight family trauma we had to sort out.

Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Champions Day at Ascot. Although it’s only in its 5th year there’s an interesting coincidence, possibly a trend, worth looking at. In its inaugural year, 2011, the only winning outsider came in the last race (4.45) at 18/1. In 2012 there were no outsider winners. 2013 the first (1.45) was won by a 20/1 shot, the 2.55 by a 16/1 and while the last (4.45) was won by a 12/1, the next four home were all big prices. Last year the only outsider win was again in the last at 20/1, 2nd was 25/1 and 3rd 33/1.

Yesterday I was three points down (£6) from three wins, one of which was a jumps selection, East Hill at 20/1 (25 EP, 42 BF), so not too bad. The other two were Mukaynis 16/1 (25) at Haydock and late one at Wol, Captain George 20/1 (34) in the 7.20.

Enjoy today! Lots to look at!


Ray Thompson

I’m only doing the first and last races at Ascot, but … further hints on the day: The same venues today as previous years show a plethora of outsiders, and some obvious filters to find them. Check these out:

2011: Cat 5.50 (LAST race) won by a 25/1 shot. Cork FIRST race 2.35 W16/1. Kel 2.45 W25/1, 5.40 (LAST!) 14/1, but opened at 16/1
2012: Cat 4.00 W16/1, 5.15 W14/1 but op. 16/1. Cork 4.50 W20/1. Wol 6.20 W16/1, 6.50 W12/1 but op. 18/1
2013: Cat 1.20 (FIRST) W16/1, op. 25/1. Kel 2.45 W28/1, 3.55 W12/1 op 18/1. Wol 6.20 W28/1, 6.50 W18/1
2014: Cor 3.15 W33/1. Kel 5.40 (LAST) 16/1 op 20/1. Wol 5.45 (FIRST) 50/1, 9.15 (LAST) 14/1 op 18/1

Every little helps!


Ray Thompson

We’ve had no broadband signal since last weekend but it’s up and working again now (still with minor glitches). It was a hardship, but I managed to struggle to the pub with my notebook and access their wi-fi in order to put my bets on. Yesterday was a cracking day for me with seven winners giving a profit of £302 after commission. We won the pub quiz last night (3rd week running!) for £18 each, then my ticket came up to attempt to “open the box” and wow! I picked the correct key (from 8) and took the £107 (usually more, but it was last won only three weeks ago).

Must go and sort today’s bets, and I have a dental appointment at noon 🙁

Back soon.


Ray Thompson

Participant
(2.24.172.40)

We’re getting into the jumps season soon and with four fences ‘n’ hedges venues today it’s time to look for outsider winners in this genre.

Since beginning my research into Flat Turf and All-Weather systems, I’ve come to realise that our system applies even MORE to jump selections. Whereas previously I was choosing one possible winner from each Chase and Hurdle handicap with the criteria that a minimum of eight runners was required, that I sorted horses for courses (left/right handed), that the form indicated previous ability on the track (C&D or a preference for running at that venue under similar Going, Weight and Rating), that the minimum industry price of 16/1 was essential, that the Betfair price would be 50+% greater than that of the bookie (e.g. 16/1 to be 24/1, or ’25’) and so forth. It was time consuming but effective. Now, we’ve got the lazy way – blanket bet the outsiders with a minimum of filtering or fuss.

Today I’ve invested in 11 animals at Carlisle – five of which are in the 4.25. Crl is in small profit over the last five years of +£25 over Chase handicaps and £110 over Hurdle hcps.
At Ludlow I’m well in profit with +£105 Chs hcps and +£335 Hdls and I have four selections: Johnny’s Legacy 25/1 (50) in the 4.45, and Air Of Glory 33/1 (70), Hill Fort 20/1 (32) and Easy Does It 40/1 (80) in the last (5.15). I should point out that the prices in brackets are my asking prices, if not met they become BFSP at the off.
Southwell isn’t my best track, but it’s down only 1 point (£5) over five years from 110 bets! I’ve fifteen here today, the majority being five in the 3.35
Thurles is very negative at a loss of £150 Chs and £35 Hdl, but I’m chancing 6 in the 3.50, 6 in the 4.50 and three in the last – Massini Boy, Small Batt’s Boy and Derrygereen Girl.
While I’m doing the blanket coverage bit, I’m sticking to £2 bets until I’m sure it works. Meantime, I’ll do a backwards look at all my jumps bets over the years and let you know my conclusion, but that will take time as I also have other things to do!

A further 19 bets tonight at Chelmsford completes my outlay

Navan saved the day yesterday with three in a row – the 3.50, 4.25 and 5.00.

Have fun! 🙂


Nessie123

Morning Ray,
Are you still playing the flat turf or is it too late in the season?
Andy


Ray Thompson

Still playing the flat turf and the all-weather Andy. 89 bets today: 26 at sunny Donny, 29 at Nby, and 17 at each of this evening’s A/W courses! This will continue until the end of the flat season around the 10th Nov.

Time for me to go join my Friday Club at the Regal Cinema Bar! Have fun!


Ray Thompson

Three jumps meetings today, Aintree is one of my top earners over Handicap Chases (although mainly in Dec, Mar and Apr) with a post-commission profit to £5 bets of +£755.25 from 48 races. Hurdles are borderline at a 9 points loss from 49 bets, and no real stats yet for new bets on NHS Flat races. Eight £2 bets here today in two H/C Chases and one Flat:
2.30 Mwaleshi 16/1
3.30 Lord Ben 16/1, Brave Spartacus 16/1 and Surf And Turf 25/1
4.35 Handpicked 16/1, Kalaniti 40/1, Lady Of Llanarmon 25/1 and Rock Chick Supremo 16/1

14 bets at Galway which is handier on this Summer jumping thing than the actual Jump Season! Post-comm profits of £47.50 on chases and £190 from hurdles.

Wincanton is very poor on Chases and only +£47.75 from 97 hurdles bets. I’ve done four in the first (1.40) and three in the last (4.45). Both hurdles!

On the flat, we have lovely left-handed Leopardstown today where I’ve covered almost all feasible outsiders in the 12.50, 1.20, 3.55 and 4.25. Huge fields means 23 bets on.

I’ve got my crosses fingered and told the stakes to go forth and multiply… 🙂


Ray Thompson

62 bets yesterday returned 61.75 points after commission! Oh dear, a whole 50p thrown away gambling!

83 bets today – 24 at Kempton, the only right-handed all-weather course in the UK; 18 at Nottingham (6 winners here last Oct at 32, 40, 60, 180, 55 and 25), 7 at Fakenham, but not expecting much there, 19 at Chelmsford and 15 at Dundalk.


Ray Thompson

Two winners at Nott, two at Kem and one biggie at Cfd returned a post-comm £412.30 for 83 £2 bets, a profit on the day of £246.30. Love it!

Two A/W today, Cfd again and Lingfield, 14 and 24 bets; then three jumps meetings: Sed is £65 in profit over Chase course, and borderline over Hurdles at zero% currently. I’ve done first and last races (hdls) and the 1.30 and 3.00 (both H/C chases). Clonmel is the opposite with +£225 over hurdles and a small loss of -£15 on Chases, so my money is spread over two Maidens and three H/C Hurdles. Stratford is +£350 over Chases and minus £160 over hdls, so three chases and a Maiden have my dosh today.

Just to reiterate: I’m doing £2 win bets on all selections at the moment, including Jumps where I’ve increased the selections from one bet (very seldom two) at each race, to all contenders over 16/1 ISP, and dropped my stake from £5 to £2 per horse.

Enjoy!


Ray Thompson

Hi, guys! Another good day yesterday. Three winners, all good prices all day on Betfair, returned 275.50 after comm. take away the stakes £146 (3 N/Rs) and I’m left with +£129.50.

Today’s jumps venues are Down Royal, +£150 Chs, +£165 Hdls. I’ve done five in the 2.40H, two in the 3.50Ch and two in the 4.25Flat
Uttox is +£525 Hdls, minus £10 chasers (2 bets down). I’m investing in the hurdle races at 12.45 and 3.35, plus the Maiden at 1.50
Wetherby is down 12 points currently. Not a lot and can return into profit anytime, so I’m on the hurdles at 1.40 and 4.00 and the 3.25 chase

Newmarket is our Flat racing friend and top earner, hence 19 outsider bets there today

The A/W continues to please (2 of yesterday’s 3 winners were A/W) so I’m on 23 at Dundalk and 12 at Wolves.

Play nice and be happy!


Ray Thompson

BOO! Let’s hope the Saturday Curse is lifted for Halloween. And we do have some ghouls, ghosties and even a couple of Luna(r) ticks (geddit?!?) in the betting boxes.

Only Newmarket again for the flat turf, and after a lovely 33/1 (80+) from there yesterday, we gotta go again with 11 bets (including Lunar Deity for the 2.35)

One A/W at Wolves where 15 selections go – including the Spirit (woooo!) Of Gondree 33/1 with some Black Truffle 20/1 *yuk*. Wol did nothing for us yesterday but good ol’ Dundalk graced our bank balance with THREE winners. Overall profit after commission was £176.40 to £2 stakes.

Nothing from the jumps yesterday and there are another four meetings today:
Ascot, good on H/C Chases to the tune of +£460.75 a/c. I’ve got three in the 1.45, two in the 2.15 and five in the 3.25 big field. They are the h/c Chases plus the last at 3.55 is a flat race, so three picks in that.

Ayr is very similar with Chases profitable to £465 a/c. I’ve done nine here today – two chases, a Maiden hurdle and the last is a Flat.

Dro produced a 50/1 winner at this meeting a year ago (Nov 1st was the Saturday). I was a bit surprised that they had nothing yesterday, but crosses fingered for 12 qualifiers today. Down Royal is equally good over Chs and Hdls to +£299.25 a/c.

Wetherby’s slightly in the red and prefers the spring races but I’m chancing a bet in the 3.40 (Vodka Wells mmmm) and a couple in the last.

Now where did I put my clown mask and the chloroform bottle and rag… 🙂


Ray Thompson

Well, the Saturday curse remains and a chunk of the profits was taken but today is another jumps Sunday and although there are four meetings, Cork and Naas have never been good for outsiders whereas right-handers Carlisle and Huntingdon are profitable in both disciplines, H/C Chs and Hdl, although today at Hun there are fewer H/Cs than usual and some small fields.

Crl 2.35HC Chicago Outfit 25/1 (50 = my asking/fishing price on Betfair)
Crl 3.10HH Milborough 50/1 (100), Big Water 20/1 (36), Lexi’s Boy 22/1 (36), Octagon 33/1 (70), Vendor 20/1 (32)
Crl 4.15Flat Thiepval 33/1 (70), The Phantom 20/1 (32), Kalaharry 16/1 (24)

Hun 4.00HH Black Lily 22/1 (36), Ballochmyle 40/1 (80), Little Window 18/1 (30)

On a positive note, I won a litre bottle of Jack Daniels down the pub for my scary zombie outfit and my ghoulfriend – a shrunken beady-eyed skeleton on a stick who danced wonderfully with me. Home made too. Pics on facebook shortly. 🙂


Ray Thompson

A second and three thirds didn’t really brighten my day yesterday.

3 jumps venues in action today. I’m leaving Kempton well alone as it’s yet to produce a winner for my original system (-£90 to 18 £5 bets). It might actually do better with the newly improved system of more bets and £2 stakes but I’m waiting to see it happen first! Ludlow is one of the top earners (+£440 over H/C Chases and Hurdles); nine selections here today. Plumpton is +£250 over hurdles but slightly down on chases, but I’m including selections in the 2.10 chase today as both Lud and Plu are positive at this time of year.

Plu 1.20 MH Guaracha 50/1, Montechito 33/1, Normandy King 66/1 and Cantor 66/1
Plu 2.20 HH King’s Road 25/1, Novalhas 22/1 and Hawk Gold 80/1
Plu 4.00 HH Uranox 18/1, Watchmetail 18/1 and Walk Of Gleams 50/1

Lud 1.40 HH Just Skittles 66/1, Shades Of Navy 33/1
Lud 2.10 HC Newton Geronimo 18/1, Jackthejourneyman 16/1
Lud 2.40 HH Take A Break 20/1
Lud 3.10 HC Carhue 22/1
Lud 3.50 HC What About Molly 16/1
Lud 4.20 Flat Trans Express 20/1, Annie’sboydave 100/1

Good things come to he who waits 🙂

Your first 30 days for just £1
2 replies
  1. dartguru says:

    Having read through all five parts of this I thought it was fascinating stuff. Difficult at time to identify where the system(s) had got to, but very interesting reading.
    Any chance of a final update which indicated what was eventually settled on for the various incarnations of the systems?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Alan

      This is from the thread, at the start of July…

      After I started this thread on July 22nd last year it took us a couple of months to get started up with a decent and viable system. I’ve taken Oct 1st as a start date and my monthly nett profits since then are recorded here:

      Oct 808.95 points
      Nov 735.10
      Dec 663.78
      Jan 190.75
      Feb 301.50
      Mar 959.00
      Apr 1,466.15
      May 1,752.95
      Jun 1,591.85

      Grand Total 8,470.93 (so far)

      To Betfair‘s minimum £2 stake that’s £16,941, for fivers read £42,354.65.

      ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

      Pretty remarkable stuff. This is a volatile approach with a lot of bets struck, but the long-term profitability has been astonishing.

      Best,
      Matt

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