Glorious Goodwood – Day Three

Short post today, dear reader, as I've cricked my neck and typing is killing me!

Much better betting day for me personally yesterday, with both placepots up (Perth and Goodwood) for multiple lines (2 times Goodwood's £65.80 and 3.60 times Perth's £45.50). I also had a few place wagers cop, including Life And Soul (20/1 from 25's) and Kinky Afro (11/1 from 20's).

But the best of the day was at Galway, where the five shortlisted horses in the trends report for the Galway Plate (our only race of the day) including third placed Majestic Concorde, the 3/1 favourite; second placed Themoonandsixpence, at 7/1 from an advised 10/1; and the winner, Finger Onthe Pulse, at 22/1 (backed by me at 38 on Betfair, Betfair SP of 50!).

It was a fantastic race to watch anyway, but having the first three home in such a hyper-competitive event was brilliant!

Interesting side note. The computer straight forecast paid €166.48. The tote exacta paid €1,070.40!! In a race the tote sponsored! They couldn't have asked for better publicity.

We've previewed five of the twelve races we're going to preview for Galway, and it's not too late to get in for the other seven. The price remains that same - €9.95 - and the page is here.

Meanwhile, back down south at Goodwood, it looks a little easier today than yesterday (famous last words?!), so let's have a quick squint before my neck caves in...

2.10 This one is clearly not easy, and my only investment will be trying to survive leg one of the placepot. Johnston is the only trainer who has saddled a horse to win with nine stone or more in the last decade (in fact, all three of his winners in that time lugged nine stone or more), so Capponi is a must for the shortlist.

Johnny G(osden) has two wins in the same period, so Beachfire is in the perm too. And I'll chuck in 'Sir' Henry's Rigidity as well. If those three don't get me through, fair enough, I'll wipe my mouth. (I had a very big perm on Tuesday that went down in the first race, and got through yesterday with just two, compared to five on Tuesday!)

2.45 Yikes! Seventeen runners, five furlongs, licketty-split. Borderlescott is quick, consistent, a tremendous battler, and has Mister Fallon up top today. He's going to hit the board, for sure. A huge spoonful of spice is added to the mixing bowl here by the appearance of a US-trained turf sprinter in the form of Starfish Bay, ridden by Frankie Dettori.

I'm sorry but if this one wins, I'm giving the game up. He won an ungraded event around the dog track at Monmouth last time and, in his only Graded appearance, he was stuffed sixth of eleven in a Grade 3. Given that our Group 3 turf sprinters are generally better than their Grade 1 turf sprinters, I just cannot see why this one's favourite. Starfish? More like red herring to me. (Cue egg on face and humble pie added to the menu tomorrow!)

Triple Aspect looks far more likely to run his race than the Yankee, and he's added as placepot ballast. But it's all about Kieren, Ron Bastiman, and Borderlescott for me. Come on the old boys! 🙂

3.25 The Goodwood Cup. Perennial bridesmaid Age Of Aquarius takes on nonagenarian plugger, Caracciola, and a host of others over two miles. One horse stands out for me here. I failed to back him the last Friday when I was at Goodwood and he won for the sixth time at the track. Step forward, Mr Illustrious Blue.

Since his last Goodwood victory, he stepped up to two miles to win the Group 3 Sagaro Stakes at Ascot and, whilst seemingly having something to find, there's no question he's a seven pound better horse on the Sussex Downs. 10/1 looks a cracking each way poke.

Tactic looks progressive, and a win over Profound Beauty last time gives him the beating of Age Of Aquarius on the form book, but he may not stay as well as some of these, and AoA is one of those that will always run close to the winner without necessarily putting his head in front.

AoA is the placepot banker, with Illustrious Blue the each way option.

4.00 'Sir' Henry won this last year with a 12/1 shot, and he has another chance with 33/1 Flame of Gibraltar here. She's been frustrating since finishing second in a Group 2 last year, but she's entitled to come on for her debut this season and the price is fat, all things considered.

Your first 30 days for just £1

They don't look a great bunch and this definitely has placepot buster written all over it. So... I'll perm a few with the Flame: Polly's Mark, Myplacelater and Ship's Biscuit.

4.35 If I'm still alive in the 'pot, I like my chances of getting a share. In the fillies' maiden (how can anyone like their chances when the next race is a fillies' maiden?!), James Given will be looking to enhance his excellent Goodwood record with Fenella Fudge. That said, his 8% strike rate with juveniles over the last five years and 0 for 22 this season is off-putting in the extreme. I'll let her go if she's to win today - she does have arguably the best form here.

Electra Star gets the nod then, with the benefit of experience and the certainty that the extra furlong will see her in better light than when running on over six at Newbury on debut. That was a fair contest and, whilst Stoute's Regal Heiress is feared, experience is key here. I'll include Dubawi Gulf for 'pot perm purposes, and also Opera Dancer.

5.10 I'm using the draw as my first eliminator here, despite what RP Postdata says. I'm looking for an 8+ berthed animal, and Cansili Star - drawn eight - looks right. Michael Jarvis' stable form this season has been incredible, and this one was unlucky not to grab a hat-trick last time when never quite getting there behind Below Zero at Chester. I'm not sure the track would have suited, and he's my wager here.

In the hope of getting an outsider placed, I'm also going with Gunner Lindley, Stefanki and Venutius.

The perm then looks thus:

1. 3, 8, 9

2. 2, 9

3. 2

4. 3, 6, 12, 13

5. 2, 3, 8

6. 6, 7, 10, 14

288 @ 20p = £57.60

I'm off to rest my aching neck...

Matt

15 replies
  1. Ian Gibb says:

    Hi Matt,

    I live in Australia, but still really enjoy your tips, comments and your down to earth approach.

    Keep up the good work.

    Cheers,
    Ian

  2. David says:

    I’m somewhat surprised about you backing the winner of the Galway race, as you wrote in the trends report:

    “Finger Onthe Pulse has failed to complete on his last three starts, and must be considered a very dodgy proposition despite being capable with a clear round. Not this day for me.”

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi David

      Yes, I can understand your surprise. What I didn’t know was that when the other shortlisted runner, Dancing Tornado, was withdrawn, Tony McCoy climbed aboard FotP.

      The shortlist, as you know, throws up the most likely winners from the primary trends. The secondary trends try to whittle the shortlist, but there is always more inference there than in the initial set of trends. That’s why I encourage people to use the shortlists rather than relying on me picking out a selection based on something more subjective / less strong.

      In any case, I do hope you backed Themoonandsixpence eachway (which would have been a FAR better result for me personally), and got the 10/1 that was readily available.

      Best Regards,
      Matt

  3. raymond hall says:

    i am not sure i understand the perm 4x3x2x5x4x5 comes to more than 288 bets, my maths is a little rusty i know ! perhaps you could let me have your systems thanks

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Raymond,

      The first number is the race number, so the perm is 3x2x1x4x3x4 = 288.

      Best,
      Matt

  4. Craig says:

    Hi Matt,

    Erm….. You’re Galway report clearly made Finger On The Pulse 5th choice and I’m a bit disappointed to you claim it as a winner for the report (and to have put money on it yourself) when the impression I got from the report was that you’d ruled it out. In fact, this is what you wrote:

    ‘Finger Onthe Pulse has failed to complete on his last three starts, and must be considered a very dodgy proposition despite being capable with a clear round. Not this day for me.’

    If that is not an indication for people like me who know nothing about Irish racing to keep our fingers OFF the pulse of that one, then I don’t know what is!!

    It’s only now you’ve mentioned it in your blog that I recall it being in the shortlist, so rather than considering myself unlucky but impressed by your near miss second and mention of the fav. (which I had remembered when I checked the result), I have ended up feeling let’s say, ‘frustrated’

    I really like your blog and honest to goodness products Matt, so I want to put things in perspective in that regard, but please, if you are going to SELL me a statement telling me that you (and therefore I) am not going to back a horse at a big price and then you do back it AND it wins, I would rather not know about it!!

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Craig

      Please see my comment earlier. I understand your frustration, and I hope you will – to some degree at least – understand mine.

      Best,
      Matt

  5. Norman Unwin says:

    BORDERLESCOTT. WHAT a horse. Over the years, I have kept faith with the old boy and it seems to me that he gets better with age. Well gone Mr Bastiman and Kieron!! 🙂

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      He’s a great old boy, for sure, and that was right up his street. Nice result for me personally too. 🙂

      A shot in the arm for the old guard!

      Matt

  6. Craig says:

    I’m not entirely sure what you mean by your frustration at having got 50 on Betfair! I do take your point (up to a point) about the jockey change, but I can’t recall reading anything specifically encouraging to ignore your advice.

    I think that most of us (the vast majority) who buy trends guide’s such as yours and Gavin’s, would be familiar enough with British horse racing to feel comfortable with being flexible about what to back, but the Irish scene is a completely different kettle of fish. I’ve NEVER bet in an Irish race in my life before this week and I would doubt I am the only one who fancied a dabble at galway without having to have a clue what I’m doing!

    Anyway, I’ve made my point, taken yours, so won’t labour it further. Well done on Borderlescot by the way. I couldn’t back an 8 year old given the record of older horses in this race, but he’s an exceptional horse and a very worthy winner.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Craig. I actually missed the BSP and had to ‘settle’ for 38. It was ‘only’ for a fiver, plus place money. And I had a more substantial wager on the second.

      Hopefully you backed Smart Striking today – and hopefully at better than the 5/2, backed from 5’s on course, and as big as 8’s this morning – and maybe Illustrious Blue.

      Best,
      Matt

  7. Chris Obee says:

    Hi Matt,
    Jeeps, we should have compared notes ! My picks today :

    2.10 Right Step ew 2nd @ 40/1/ Capponi
    2,45 Borderlessscot Won 9/2 ( Astrophysical Jet 3rd @ 7/1)
    3.25 Electrolyser ew 2nd @ 33/1 ( Purple Moon 3rd @ 13/2)
    4.00 Eastern Aria Won @ 16/1
    4.35 Kalahaaq Won @ 9/2
    5.10 Citrus Star won @ 8/1

    Problem is now I’m off on an around the world cruise, well maybe around Watford anyway !

    Chris

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      That’s some fancy tipping there, Chris! Enjoy the joys Watfordshire… 😉

      Matt

Comments are closed.