Glorious Goodwood Live Blog

Glorious Goodwood Live Blog

Glorious Goodwood Live Blog

12pm - Welcome to the Glorious Goodwood LIVE blog!

Hi! Is there anybody out there?! 😀 Leave a comment to check in...

At each of the big meetings, I try to blog live for one of the days, in the hope of creating a more interactive experience. So, here's how this works.. with luck!

1. Trends are available below, if you want to do your own digging (positively encouraged). I'll also offer my thoughts on what I'm backing and why as the afternoon unfolds.

2. I'd love for you to comment either at the bottom of the post, or on Twitter (@mattbisogno), and I'll try to incorporate your comments into the live blog feed. (I call it a 'feed'. In fact, it's me copying and pasting!)

3. Er, that's it. Oh, and remember to refresh your page to get the latest updates. Either hit the curly arrow 'refresh' button on your browser, or try the F5 key. Both should bring up any new updates...

Hopefully it will be fun and engaging. If not, there's always the Olympics on the Beeb... 😉

17.41 - That's it from me. I've really enjoyed this, and would like to thank you all for checking in and sharing your thoughts. Hope you won a few quid or, at worst, only lost a couple of quid. It was a tough, tough day today and yet we've come out in decent shape here on the blog. I'll be back tomorrow with the Friday preview, and will be taking Saturday off as I head for the track and some beer and cheer. 🙂

17.40 - Full result. Favourite wins the lucky last (lucky for some!) -

1st 5 Silver Lime (USA) 7/2 f
2nd 3 Assizes 7/1
3rd 1 Marshgate Lane (USA) 10/1
4th 10 Fortieth And Fifth (IRE) 50/1

17.38 - First and third took the circuitous route down the outside, Traveller's Tales was murdered in the run, Assizes no excuses and a bit unlucky. Full result to follow...

17.34 - Silver Lime nicks it on the line! Assizes second, Marshgate Lane third, and Fortieth and Fifth fourth (if you see what I mean).

17.30 - They're off. And two of my pace makers are the last two!

17.24 - Fancies for Zamsky Star and Assizes from you. They're at the start and we'll be off shortly. I've really enjoyed this afternoon - hope it's added a bit of something to your day's racing too - and let's do it again soon.

17.18 - the 'lucky last' is as treacherous as ever. Here's the view:

5.25 BETFRED MOBILE LOTTO STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) 1m3f

Seven renewals, four of which were won by horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Still awaiting the first winning favourite.

Cresta Star has pace, and talent, and can run well in this one, despite being more exposed than some of the runners towards the top of the handicap. Marshgate Lane was impressive at Newmarket last time out, and will surely improve again. But he has plenty of weight to carry, even in a compressed handicap like this one.

Silver Lime looked unlucky over nine furlongs here last time, and is highly likely to make the frame. Indeed, he could well win but at the price I'd rather look elsewhere, with a saver on the jolly.

Sondeduro is interesting for Jamie Osborne. He's a huge price for one likely to make the running, and who won his last race on turf. He might have a bit to find with some of these, but won't have any problems in running, a comment which won't universally apply.

The others of interest - to me at least - are Prophesy and Traveller's Tales. The former should appreciate this sounder surface and longer trip , while the latter is worth a shot at a big price.

Each way selection: Cresta Star
Each way alternatives: Traveller's Tales, Sondeduro
Obvious dangers: Silver Lime, Marshgate Lane

17.02 - Full result, and a good result for me personally. Hope it was ok for you too:

1st 16 Stirring Ballad 8/1
2nd 1 Arnold Lane (IRE) 10/1
3rd 15 My Sharona 13/2
4th 2 Shamaal Nibras (USA) 11/2 f

17.00 - Stirring Ballad beats My Sharona and Arnold Lane.

16.57 - They're off!

16.53 - Well done to Stuart Hogg, who wrote:

Winning courtesy of Saddlers Rock, I was stuck in a meeting and couldn’t get Heavy Metal on though so gutted! But I got offered a new job then so I’m happy :) cheers Matt and good look for SOTD too!

16.52 - Lots of tips here. Campanology, Lord Ofthe Shadows, Jakes Destiny amongst others. Good luck all!

16.39 - Race six, and it's another conundrum:

4.55 TATLER STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) 7f

7/10 carried 8-12 or more

Pace is likely to come from Hamza (with a good draw), and Bayleyf.

A super tricky handicap. Early pace and a low draw will be advantageous, and that plays into the hands of Hamza, who should be able to bag the rail. Whether he's good enough is another question. A fast ground Class 3 seven furlong win might just be a tad shy of what's needed.

Stirring Ballad and My Sharona have tougher draws but better form, and both have chances in what is a very open race.

At a bigger price, Lord Ofthe Shadows could go well.

Dinner break for me. Back in ten minutes!

16.34 - How are you getting on today? Winning? Losing? Breaking even? Still going in the placepot?!

16.31 - The 1-2-3 there was 1-3-2. Monster prices the winner and third. Really like Alan Jarvis, so very pleased for him.

16.30 - Full result:

1st 1 Annie's Fortune (IRE) 25/1
2nd 3 Botanica (IRE) 10/3
3rd 2 Arbeel 40/1

16.26 - Annie's Fortune picks up well late to see off Botanica and Arbeel. Very popular win for Alan Jarvis, awaiting SP's.

16.10 - Next race is a fillies' maiden and not one to get too excited about. Here are my thoughts...

4.20 E B F BRITISH STALLION STUDS NEW HAM MAIDEN FILLIES´ STAKES (CLASS 2) 7f

Few trends, and very little form.

8/10 winners had already run

9/10 started 8/1 or shorter

I like the Hannon horses here. Both of them. The shorter in the betting, and the mount of Richard Hughes, is Botanica. She's run twice, and got a silver and a bronze to date, looking like a longer trip would suit both times.

She has an extra furlong to work with here, and as a daughter of Clodovil, she ought to make good use of it.

The other is Heading North, a once raced daughter of Teofilo. She was staying on over Newmarket's soft seven furlong track on that first effort, and she'll be much sharper for that. Ryan Moore does the steering and she ought to go well.

Supernova Heights is one of many dangers in a race which will more likely go to an experienced runner than a newcomer.

Selection: Heading North
Next best: Botanica

16.00 Chins up, y'all! We've three more races to go 🙂 And, if you're a member of Betfolio, you'll be pleased with two tasty winners to get August's trainers off to a flyer, and at 9.0 and 13.0 on Betfair too! What a way to start the second half of the ten month Betfolio project. 😀

15.56 - I don't think anyone fancied any of the first three there. A 'skinner' all round. At least it will be a fillip for Sir Henry, who is recovering from cancer surgery just now. Who would begrudge the great man that? Full result:

1st 8 Wild Coco (GER) 6/1
2nd 4 Jehannedarc (IRE) 25/1
3rd 9 Estimate (IRE) 3/1 j

15.53 - I HATE those races! Placepot down, with fading Hawaafez getting done in the last half furlong and finishing fourth. I think my other pick, Midnight Soprano, was fifth too.

Couldn't have had Wild Coco with six picks in the race. Very gloomy here just now. Had loads of cover in the last two placepot legs. 🙁 🙁

15.45 - you like Midnight Soprano and Good Morning Star and Hawaafez and Quiz Mistress. Good luck to all. Filed under 'please can I get through the placepot'. Feeling precarious in that context. I do not like these fillies' staying races.

15.44 - Aargh. Missed Midnight Soprano in this one. She will hopefully go well too, as she's on my placepot. Added to my token selections in the race, for what it's worth...!

15.39 - Racing link: apparently Wilson, the gold medal winner, is trained by Sheikh Ahmed al-Maktoum, surely one of Sheikh Mo's brothers!

15.38 - Race three, after a Dorset gold medal!!! This one is filed under too hard, so here are some loose views:

3.45 ISHARES FILLIES´ STAKES (REGISTERED AS THE LILLIE LANGTRY STAKES) (GROUP 3) 1m6f

Only nine renewals...

9/9 winners finished first or second last time out

9/9 3 to 5 years old (3 - 2, 4 - 5, 5 - 2)

3/9 were rated in the 80's (very low)

8/9 had raced seven times or less

Pace is probably not too relevant here, and should be between Bolivia, Amaraja, and Hawaafez.

A really tough race and, in truth, not one I have a real view about. I think The Queen's horse, Estimate, will improve again; and Hawaafaz looks capable of more too.

Sir Henry doesn't have too many 33/1 shots racing, so Amaraja might well outrun those odds, despite her lowly official rating. (Low rated horses have won this three times).

Token selections: Hawaafez, Midnight Soprano
Token outsider each way: Amaraja

15.31 - Looks like a possible Dorset gold medal, via Peter Wilson from Dorchester in the clay pigeon shooting. Didn't even know it was an Olympic sport...!

15.30 - Anybody got a strong view on this fillies' race? Looks impossible to me..!

15.25 - Interesting race, and really game runs from both the winner and Electrolyser. Colour Vision maybe needs a little further...

Full result:

1st 8 Saddler's Rock (IRE) 2/1 f
2nd 3 Askar Tau (FR) 25/1
3rd 1 Colour Vision (FR) 5/2

15.21 - Favourite wins the races! Saddlers Rock, the placepot banker, does the job gamely. Massive race from Askar Tau in second, with Colour Vision sticking on well in third. Simenon, as suspected, not quite up to this class yet.

15.16 - The money is for Colour Vision, who was a Mark Johnston beastie last year, though strangely wasn't entered at Glorious Goodwood.

AND THEY'RE OFF!!!

15.13 - They all look pretty well in the paddock, according to the TV pundits. Colour Vision with a three pound penalty. Would that make any difference here?! 15/8 Saddlers, 11/4 Colour Vision (from 3's), 4/1 Simenon, 8/1 bar.

Saddlers Rock the pick of the paddock though, according to Lydia Hislop.

15.05 - plenty of love for Colour Vision. Bits and pieces for Saddlers and Lost In The Moment.

15.02 - Race three, and the highlight of the afternoon. Here's how I see it...

3.15 ARTEMIS GOODWOOD CUP (BRITISH CHAMPIONS SERIES) (GROUP 2) 2m

Mark Johnston has won four of the last fifteen renewals; Godolphin three; O'Brien, Elsworth and Stoute two each.

11/14 winners were 1-2-3 last time out

10/14 5 to 7 years old

10/14 ran between 31 and 60 days ago

6/14 favourites won

The pace here should be set by Chiberta King and/or Electrolyser, though it will likely be insignificant.

The big race today, and not too many of these can contend with the form credentials of Saddlers Rock and Colour Vision.

Saddlers Rock was a little unlucky perhaps in the Ascot Gold Cup, and Colour Vision was a little lucky perhaps in the same race. As such, there's very little between the pair, and it may be down to who acts best on the Goodwood strip.

Saddlers is my placepot banker, and I'm not switching horses now, rightly or wrongly. I will however be laying him for a place to cover half my placepot stake.

Simenon is obviously open to improvement, but he'll need to be as the bare form of a pair of Ascot Class 2 wins is a tad shy of Group 2 Cup class form. I'll let him beat me if he's good enough.

Lost In The Moment is a good bit more interesting. This chap had a tough trip in the race last year, and went down by just a head. With better luck in running, he could well make the frame.

Chiberta King will go from the front, and he was beaten less than seven lengths last year. Alas, that was only good enough for ninth place, and although he's won a handicap here, he'd be hard to fancy for anything more than a place.

Selection: Saddlers Rock
Danger: Colour Vision
Best each way: Lost In The Moment

15.01 - Brilliant 'home' judging in the Olympic boxing by the way: Anthony Agogo gets the verdict over the Ukrainian world champ. Boxed brilliantly, but it was a knife edge verdict. Well played fella!

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14.59 - Full result:

1st 5 Heavy Metal 9/1
2nd 6 Master Of War 3/1
3rd 2 Cay Verde 4/1

14.49 - Heavy Metal wins the races! Foils the five-timer for Hannon, with Master Of War beaten a head or so in second. Daylight to the rest, led by Cay Verde.

14.47 - Off for the Richmond!

14.45 - Fancies from you for Cay Verde, Ahern, Heavy Metal, Master of War, and Ginger Goose..!

Even in a race like this, there's no consensus view.

14.38 - Time for race two, and here's my view...

2.45 AUDI RICHMOND STAKES (GROUP 2) 6f

Richard Hannon has won the last four renewals...

Nine of the last fourteen winners won last time out.

Five favourites won in that time.

All fourteen winners had between one and four runs. Nine of them had had just one or two runs.

Heavy Metal and Euxton Hall may try to go from the front and cause a double digit upset.

Richard Hannon and Qatar Bloodstock may hold the keys here. Hannon is chasing a remarkable fifth consecutive success in the race, with Master Of War, a pretty apt nomenclature for the man himself when it comes to Goodwood juvie contests.

MoW has good form, including a soft ground Listed win last time. His two victories from four starts surrounded a respectable ninth in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, and he looks set for a bold show in the bid for a Hannon nap hand.

Qatar Bloodstock own both favourite, Ahern, and third choice Cay Verde. The favourite is perhaps a little short on what he's done so far. Impressive on debut, beating a field of early season winners, he's subsequently been turned over by Reckless Abandon and Alhebayeb.

Both of those are taking high order in the juvie sprint division, of course, and Ahern can be commended for finishing close up. But you'd have to think that Hannon has a line on that form and has chosen from his vast array of 2yo talent wisely.

Cay Verde has nothing to find with Ahern on Norfolk Stakes running, and it will be interesting to see how he copes with the step up in trip. He's not obviously short of pace, so I'm not certain this is what he's after.

The two most likely to lead are Heavy Metal and Euxton Hall, and one or both may hang on for a place. The former is a Mark Johnston runner, and respected on that basis alone; the latter a Richard Fahey runner, which is a worry with his record at the track.

Heavy Metal has plenty to find with a couple of these, and would need more than one opponent to under-perform for him to prevail, but he will be giving his all. Euxton Hall also has a bit to find with the principles, but will go quick up front unless/until the stamina gives out.

Selection: Master Of War
Bigger priced each way: Heavy Metal

14.30 - TAG had a great day yesterday following some Geegeez placed horses:

Hi Matt, what a day yesterday, thanks to luhaif, also had beyond,mawaqeet and the confessor in a 10p ew lucky 15 with pp. retuned £231.90 which included bonus of £69.20. Happy days. tag.

14.28 - I expected Grandeur to run from further back, but he showed his versatility by always being prominent. He's considered by Racing UK's experts to be a Group horse and, having won off top weight in a Class 2 handicap, it's hard to argue with that assessment.

Johnston foiled in his opening race hat-trick bid, as he only managed second... and fourth... and

14.23 - Full result:

1st 1 Grandeur (IRE)8/1

2nd 10 Switzerland (IRE)25/1

3rd 12 Blue Surf14/1

4th 6 Fennell Bay (IRE)16/1

Good enough result for the placepot, with one 'A' and two 'B's meaning all lines still running... £286,929 the final pool!!

14.21 - Grandeur gets a clean run to win off top weight. Switzerland, Fennell Bay and Blue Surf make up the places in the teeming rain.

14.17 - They're off for the opener!

14.15 - More interest for Blue Surf, who is definitely the most fancied runner in this race... amongst the Geegeez mob at least. I'm starting to warm to Wrotham Heath...

Mark also likes Queen's Estate each way; and Chris (hello!) is siding with Hefner and Grandeur, suitably tentatively...

Mal, the man behind Well I Declare, nominated Golden Causeway (4.20) earlier in the week, and has been pleased to see that horse's price contract from 18's to 8's for a trading position!

14.08 - Possible delay for the opener, as Blue Surf and Sir Glanton not with the field... Blue Surf being re-shod.

14.05 - Ten minutes to go and the placepot pool is up to £222,000. Nice!

14.01 - Excellent insight on the course from Sim here:

Hi Matt,
Due to the layout, I find that the best approach to Goodwood, is to split it into 3 different courses, you have the 5&6 furlong sprints on the straight shoot where the horse needs the ability to cope with the undulations, a good place to start is to look for good runs at such courses as Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chepstow, Epsom, Folkestone,Hamilton, Lingfield, Pontefract and Ripon.

Then we have 7f & 1mile races where they also have a right hand turn to overcome, so look for the ability to cope with undulations on right handed courses such as Carlisle, Hamilton, & Ripon, Also being drawn closest to the rail is a big advantage, especially over the 7f.

Finally we have middle & long distance races where the ability to cope with undulations on right handed courses as well as having the stamina are required.
Hope this little insight is of help,
Good Luck, Sim

13.55 - More support, in comment terms at least, for Opinion from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Sir Michael has had the favourite for the past three years, and won the race last year with Labarinto.

13.50 - Right, it's time to start looking in detail at each race, starting with the opener at 2.15.

2.15 BETFRED THE BONUS KING STAKES (HANDICAP) Class 2 1m2f

Not much in the way of trends here, though all bar one of the last ten winners were carrying less than nine stone, which seems to count against a few fancied runners at the top of the handicap.

All ten winners were returned at 9/1 or shorter, and five were favourite.

Prussian looks set to lead, though it's a looong way home over a mile and a quarter here.

So we kick off with an eighteen runner three-year-old handicap over a mile and a quarter. As with all the big field handicaps here, expect plenty of hard luck stories. Racing on the pace is a good way to stay out of trouble, as is coming from far back, though you may need a map and compass to chart a route if you're adopting the latter tactic.

Prussian would make it a three-timer of opening race wins for Mark Johnston, and his front-running style is well suited to a stab at that. He's got strong form in ten furlong handicaps, though there's just a suspicion that he's better when able to dominate from the front in small fields.

In fields of ten or less, his form is 2115112, whereas in bigger fields it's 00. Hmm.

The two at the top of the weights are attempting to defy history, but have sound form claims. Grandeur and Wrotham Heath are very closely tied in on their Epsom handicap form, and there again may not be much to choose between them. If Queally goes from the front, as he has on this chap in the past, then he'll go close I feel.

Grandeur will need doors to open at the right time with his late, late show manner. Possible, but slightly off-putting in a full field like this.

Asatir is unbeaten in three for Godolphin, and Frankie rides this afternoon for the first time. In fact, he'll be the fourth jockey in as many career starts for Asatir, which is rare. The horse is progressive and goes on all ground, but is stepping up both in class and trip here, which is not something he obviously wants on breeding.

Hallings Comet is one I like here (relatively of course). He's got a light weight, comes from a very shrewd operation, and ought to devour the extra quarter mile. He'll probably be close to the pace early as well, which should help.

The other of mild interest, and mentioned by a couple of comments already, is Blue Surf. From the Perrett stable which so loves a Goodwood winner, this fellow ran his best race when stepped up to ten furlongs last time, and there will be plenty more to work on, no doubt.

He will probably need luck in running, but then so will most of the rest.

As usual, there are many more dangers than I've mentioned, so good luck with whatever you like.

Tentative each way selection: Hallings Comet
Others of interest: Blue Surf, Wrotham Heath

13.46 - Well I'm glad the charity race wasn't in the placepot, as my hope, George Baker, was fourth, under a typical 'charity rider' pilot. In truth, the horse ran well and I'm looking forward to him winning before the season is out. As mentioned, I have a hair of him this year, as he is leased to the Popbitch Racing Club, and I'm a member...

13.35 - Stop the clock! We have our first double pick! It's Amanda Perrett's Blue Surf in the opener...

Also a mention from Times Up in the Goodwood Cup for Paul D.

TEA BREAK! OK, I'm on my own here, and need tea. All this 'talking' is giving me a dry throat. Back by 13.35. 🙂

13.25 - more fancies coming in, and more horses covered! Opinion in the opener for Phil C; and Chris is going with Colour Vision in the Goodwood Cup. Still no horse with two picks for it. Gulp.

13.20 - Props for Prophesy if it handles the ground (from Graham Ashford); Wrotham Heath (from Lucky John); and Hazel Lavery too.

I don't think two people have nominated the same horse yet, which is testament to how tough a day it is..!

13.15 - placepot struck! Click the images below for full details... (click back to return to this page!)

Goodwood Placepot Perm

It was constructed like this:

Bet Builder Construction

13.06 - Putting finishing touches to placepot perm. I have very low confidence today, I have to say. Some wide open contests. And no fewer than five of the races are full of improvers, meaning current levels of form have to projected forward to what they might be capable of upgrading to... yikes.

Whinging aside, I'm nearly there with my 'hope for the best' special. Now eight deep in the opener!

12.58 - Paul Norwich City likes Beaufort Twelve in the opener. Apparently, it's not because the horse runs in the Canaries colour silks, but because he has a good draw and is well weighted. 😉

Actually, I reckon that might be a fair shout, Paul. If Kieren can keep him out of trouble, i.e. up with the pace, he's a good chance. But if he sits midfield, there's a prospect of getting horribly boxed in. 11/1 is fair enough though, I'd say.

Tony T, a far braver man than me, reckons Clon Brulee is a banker bet each way in the last. Good luck with that one, Tony. Hope you're right.

12.55 - Bankers are a good bit harder to come by... still on blowouts, Simenon is up considerably in class and, whilst he could win, he's no value at 4/1. Onto bankers, and, erm, I do like Master Of War in the Richmond Stakes, but he'd be far from banker material. It's actually really bloody hard today!

12.48 - who are your bankers and blowouts today? Any horses you really like, or want to field against this afternoon? I'm against Wild Coco in the 4.20 - didn't think she liked it here last year; and Ahern looks short enough on what he's done to date (more exposed than some of these).

12.42 - Just to say to all those asking whether I will be putting up my picks today, YES! As the afternoon unfolds, I'll be adding my selections and reasons why. It is tricky today, and I'm not hugely confident about any of them, so caveat emptor prevails.

12.38 - Philip, one of many Pennies Punters who follow Geegeez, wrote, "A bad day for me yesterday especially with Santefisio getting done by a head in the last after Le Toreador being beaten by a short head in the last on the first day. Do you ever feel like screaming, or are you the cool, calm and collected sort?"

Like everyone else, I get frustrated when I'm close but no cigar. But I feel more like screaming when I'm miles away. Basically, my view is that when you're hitting the board with nice priced horses, you are right but just not getting paid for it.

This is actually quite an important psychological point, I think, and I'd rather have a string of 2's than 4's and 5's, no matter how frustrating it may be.

Philip continued, "Can I also say something about trends. My problem with them is that although they offer some form of route what happens when a trend, say top trainers with older horses, all converge in one race. Then what do you do?"

Don't get me started, Philip!

Basically, as someone once famously observed, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. The key here is to use the data sensibly. So many stats are presented as material, when in fact they're coincidence.

In a nutshell, if you cannot rationalise the stat, it's useless.

In the case of more than one trainer being favoured in a race, respect runners from all of those trainers, but look more deeply at other factors. If you still can't find a way of narrowing down the field, then move on to another race.

You don't have to bet every race. Indeed, you absolutely should NOT bet every race. Selectivity is key. Bet when you have an edge, or an angle, or a material stat, or whatever. Next!

12.32 - couple of questions coming in now, so I'll do my best to answer as many as I can through the afternoon... First up, Scott says, "Ghanaian 4.20 & Marshgate lane 5.25. What you think Matt?"

I saw Marshgate Lane win at Newmarket on soft ground last time. He was mightily impressive, and obviously will continue to improve. Barzalona rode him that day and gets the leg up here too. Impossible race in truth, though of course this fellow has his chance. I wouldn't be too worried about the weight either, as it's a very compressed handicap, with just ten pounds from top to bottom.

Ghanaian is first time up from a trainer who does brilliantly with first time up horses (17% strike rate, +66 profit), but it's impossible to know what he's up against. I think the Hannon pair will take some beating here.

12.28 - Francis Muldoon on twitter likes Blue Surf in the opener. Trained by Amanda Perrett, a handicap trainer of note for this meeting, he's in good form, and open to improvement. Draw should be fine, and the trip is fine, so he must have a chance. It is a very hard opener this afternoon though.

12.23 - by the way, thanks a million for all the kind words regarding the week so far. There have been some nice priced winners and, of course, Luhaif finishing third at 80/1 seems to have been a pretty popular result for plenty of you. Great stuff. Let's hope we can snaffle a couple of prizes today too.

12.21 - I'm looking at Saddler's Rock as the placepot banker. What do you think? Sensible, or need to go deeper in the Goodwood Cup?

12.12 - Just perming up my firm... erm, I mean firming up my perm... I'm looking at SEVEN in the opener. Ahem.

12.05 - I've actually still got to construct my placepot perm. Seeing as we're live, I'll do something I don't normally do, and share a few tips and perhaps even the perm I'm playing.

There is a race at 1.45, but this is a charity contest. In actual fact, I own a hair in one of the runners, George Baker, who is syndicated through one of the several racing clubs of which I'm a member. I think he could run well though I don't know much about the jockey...!

******

5.25 BETFRED MOBILE LOTTO STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 3) 1m3f

Seven renewals, four of which were won by horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Still awaiting the first winning favourite.

Likely pace setters will be Cresta Star, Sondeduro, Traveller's Tales, and Prophesy. It might be hard to win from the front, but I'd expect at least one of those to hang on for a place.

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121 replies
  1. Pete says:

    Good luck Matt – another Luhaif would be handy! I backed it place only, would have had a heart attack if it had won. Have a great day.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Peter – it might be hard to match that effort today. Mainly because there aren’t many horses priced at 80/1 running!

  2. Michael says:

    Many thanks for yesterday Matt. I covered them all in each way doubles and that 80/1 third place was superb and really boosted all the other placed horses.

  3. Mark J says:

    Have a great day Matt and keep your many followers in touch with any ‘on course’ news!
    Mark

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Not on course today, Mark. I’m in Geegeez Towers!

      Tomorrow and Saturday I shall be at the track, and I’m looking forward to it. But we have the small matter of seven races to solve first…

      Matt

  4. John says:

    Followed you at Ascot and this week as well. Interesting insightful stuff, and profitable to boot – keep it up. John

  5. lee says:

    Hi Matt
    thanks for yesterday, made a bit 🙂
    will you be providing your tips for goodwood throughout the day or will you post them above?

  6. Philip Clayton (Pennies Punter) says:

    Hi Matt, Philip from the Nile here (Penies Punter). A bad day for me yesterday especially with Santefisio getting done by a head in the last after Le Toreador being beaten by a short head in the last on the first day. Do you ever feel like screaming, or are you the cool, calm and collected sort? My e/w today are 2.45 Secret Sign, 3.45 Hazel Lavery, 4.55 Jake’s Destiny, 5.25 Hurler and Farmer and in the3.40 Nott Vexillum. Any thoughts on these?

    Can I also say something about trends. My problem with them is that although they offer some form of route what happens when a trend, say top trainers with older horses, all converge in one race. Then what do you do? I think following trends involves juggling a huge number of balls simultaneously and an enormous amount of constant back checking. I try to look at each race individually and only pay attentuion to a tyrend if it is overwhelming. Am I being stupid?

  7. ecrompton says:

    Looking forward to today. I’ve got full access to the remote, laptop and the “Geegeez Live Blog” Life doesn’t get much better than this!!

    Always follow your advice Matt (and I do this for a living!!) and can safely say have always been well renumerated along the way.

    Good luck with the perm. I still use your A B C method but have invented my own angle on it for the smaller meetings.

    Cheers for all your hard work and I look forward to seeing your “plays” for today.

    Regards,

    Ed

  8. Michael says:

    Matt, Mark Johnston horse for the opener? It seems to be the law, but which one of the four?

  9. Richard Lichten says:

    Don’t keep us guessing Matt. Are you going to share your placepot perm?

    Richard

  10. Jim says:

    Hi Matt, just a quick note to say congrats on you selections so far this week, do you carry on for the jumps season? Also will you be previewing all of todays Goodwood races like the first 2 days, great insight, or are you doing your previewing in this live blog?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      I’ll be previewing the races ‘live’, which means I’ll put my thoughts up just before each race. Do offer your own thoughts too. Horse and reason please!

      Matt

  11. jules says:

    ok matt excellent again yesterday,luhaif i done top draw it was 250 at betfair at 1 point i got 22 sweet as a nut,il be about today, i gotta do a bit of homework il be back

  12. Bluestar says:

    Just want to say thanks Matt for producing such an interesting and varied site. I am only a small punter these days and I always call by the site to check my own thoughts with yours.

  13. Chris Atkinson says:

    Hi Matt

    First things first, have to open with the now the familiar praise for your site, the info. it provides & your excellent tipping. Missed out on Luhaif yesterday, but what a call at 80-1!!

    Today, work means this will be a brief visit and will miss most of your live blog. I think Saddlers Rock will maintain the good record of favourites in the feature race and will be backing Cay Verde as nap of the day to bounce back from Royal Ascot for the in form Channon yard.

    Your nap of the day from Goodwood today?

  14. paul@norwichcity (@paul8taylor) says:

    Beaufort Twelve has a handy draw and is weighted well so he’s my pick

  15. Dave says:

    Hi Matt
    Really looking foward to today. Should be good fun with the live blog and hopefully profitable at the end of the day
    Thanks
    Dave

  16. Ray Thompson says:

    Chigun couldn’t quite hang on for your placepot yesterday; let’s get it right today! 🙂

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Ray

      I had plenty in the last leg yesterday, and Chigun was mugged by another of mine, Epernay. I had 5th and 6th too. 🙂

      MUCH harder today, I think…

  17. Rob B says:

    Matt, am I right in thinking that you will be reporting live on Saturday? I’ll make a deal, I’ll stay sober enough to type (I can understand your “not sober” voice) and you can bet for me?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      No Rob, I shall be drinking live on Saturday, with you at the track. And I will not be staying sober… and I don’t expect you to, either!

  18. Lucky says:

    Really enjoyed your Goodwood previews this week Matt. Some nice profits made too.
    Great to see you doing a live blog, so I’ll tag along for the day – if my boss doesn’t catch me !
    Sticking with Sir Henry in the opener as Wrotham didn’t like the ground last time out and it’s been a decent earner for me in the past (loads of sensible logic there then).
    I fancy Hazel Lavery to do well in the 3.45 too.
    All the best today.

  19. graham ashford says:

    hi Matt
    great blog today nice to hear everybodys comments.
    think Prophesy in the last has a great e.w. chance if this ex obrien horse handles the ground think he is in with a chance with the yard in good form.

    Graham

  20. jules says:

    i think the hannon pair, on the charts richard hughes mount had a hit this morning,its 20,s and crowley had a bump on his chart,there both in form,also the johnson runners,also double figure draw it seems over the mile,please listen to matt though,

  21. Rob says:

    Hi Matt
    Keep up the good work had a good start this week with Ladaman so still in profit :-). But I must of missed Luhaif
    Hope I have not jump in to early today with me bets ?

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Who can say Rob. It’s a day where you may well have stronger opinions on the racing than me!

      Matt

  22. Paul says:

    I am taking a chance with Times Up, he comes here fresh, likes fast ground (the rain would be a slight negative) but at 20/1 he makes plenty of appeal

  23. John says:

    Just had a look at the first and have come down with Blue Surf. Well in at the ratings and has form at the track. The trainer like her father likes a winner at the track.

  24. Phil Eadie says:

    Hi Matt
    With an hour to go before the first, whats the latest going?
    I fancy Wrotham Heath to continue the Cecil/Queally success but not if the ground softens up with the expected showers.

    Asatir has obvious chances if handling the step up in distance but would also not be suited by any rain.

    Leaving my final selection till nearer the off, any further rain will persuade me to have a very speculative eachway punt on Sheilas Buddy 50/1, gets two stone from the market leaders and could run into a place if the going softens.

  25. Philip Clayton (Pennies Punter) says:

    Hello again, am saying goodbye as have to take my son out. What happened to the Live bit?

  26. MikeA says:

    Afternoon all, looking forward to this live blog! My only “Edge Your Bets” selection from Goodwood today (apologies Matt for the shameless plug) is Opinion in the 2.15. In the other handicaps my method picked out Prophesy in the 5.25 (no bet for system as price too big) and in the 4.55 no less than 4 selections (so again, no bet) so just for fun I’ll go for the outsider of the quartet, Campanology. Using the same method for the non-handicaps, then it’s Lost In The Moment 3.15 and Wild Coco 3.45. Good luck all!

  27. Johnny5 says:

    Re 2:15 – I’m helping a mate (commission man) get money down on Opinion in the first

    It’s drifting near double figures – but there you are for what it’s worth … There’s two of us on the same one !!

    Tough race and tough day at Goodwood today Matt – some unfathomable races !! Enjoy the sun

  28. Sim says:

    Hi Matt,
    Due to the layout, I find that the best approach to Goodwood, is to split it into 3 different courses, you have the 5&6 furlong sprints on the straight shoot where the horse needs the ability to cope with the undulations, a good place to start is to look for good runs at such courses as Brighton, Carlisle, Catterick, Chepstow, Epsom, Folkestone,Hamilton, Lingfield, Pontefract and Ripon.
    Then we have 7f & 1mile races where they also have a right hand turn to overcome, so look for the ability to cope with undulations on right handed courses such as Carlisle, Hamilton, & Ripon, Also being drawn closest to the rail is a big advantage, especially over the 7f.
    Finally we have middle & long distance races where the ability to cope with undulations on right handed courses as well as having the stamina are required.
    Hope this little insight is of help,
    Good Luck, Sim

  29. Speculate2Accumulate (@sp2a) says:

    The way Johnson’s are running would not be a great surprise to see Switzerlan pop up when least expected I also think any Channon juvenile is worth following as several have run well above rating

  30. paul@norwichcity (@paul8taylor) says:

    2.15 update Beaufort Twelve already backed (not because of the colour connection 🙂
    And Also like your pick Hallings Comet with a small win bet on Grandeur Good luck

  31. Mal Boyle
    Mal Boyle says:

    Looks like I wasn’t the only person interested in Golden Causeway (4.20) given my comment earlier in the week….was able to back at 18 and lay off at 8, that’s the way to play! Hope those of you that have backed the Charlie Hills newcomer get a decent run for your money.

  32. T A Gordon says:

    Hi Matt, what a day yesterday, thanks to luhaif, also had beyond,mawaqeet and the confessor in a 10 ew lucky 15 with pp. retuned £231.90 which included bonus of £69.20. Happy days. tag.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Great stuff Tag – that’s a lovely touch for a small outlay. Well done! 🙂

      Matt

  33. Patrick says:

    Have a sneaky for Grandeur in the first…. But have backed the Geegeez as well…….!

  34. Speculate2Accumulate (@sp2a) says:

    nice little each way touch there for me with Switzerland – how the hell Johnson does it though I dont know! I wonder if he does!

  35. Chris Worrall says:

    OK, now I’ve a couple of quid extra in my pocket from race 1, I’m going with Master of War next (with a small 25/1 E/W punt on Ginger Goose).

  36. D.Hynes says:

    Had blue surf and fennell bay e/w in the first… fingers crossed I can find a winner in the second!

  37. Speculate2Accumulate (@sp2a) says:

    Cay Verde to continue good run for Channon’s juveniles for me and an UNRACED speed machine to come later on!

  38. John says:

    Don’t normally back in 2yo races but my vote goes to Heavy Metal.Good ratings on both going and distance and trainer in great form.

  39. MikeA says:

    If I had to bet on this one it would be the fav, Ahern…but I don’t so I won’t!

  40. Joe says:

    Also on master of war for this Hannon should have the line on this again.

    Here’s to hoping.

  41. eamon says:

    Not very original but finding it difficult to separate the top two so I’m dutching Saddler’s Rock & Colour Vision in the Goodwood Cup

  42. D.Hynes says:

    Nice one Matt, had a few quid on Heavy Metal, really enjoying this Live Blog session!!!

  43. paul@norwichcity (@paul8taylor) says:

    3.15
    Lost In The Moment is my Win Banker today. I believe he holds Colour Vision and can go one place better than last years 2nd.. well done with Heavy Metal missed it 🙁 However if Sadlers Rock wins then Midnight Soprano might be the answer to the 3.45 riddle.

  44. Mark J says:

    Yes Go Agogo – just got there; poss gold now for him. Hasn’t Gosden got an e/w chance in the next? Quiet week so far for him…..

  45. Chris Worrall says:

    My two from my placepot are unimaginatively Simenon and Colour Vision. Small win bets on the pair to boot.

  46. Jim says:

    Hi Matt

    Your placepot is going well!!
    Simenon in 3.15 for me
    Don’t forget your tie and trousers tomorrow

    Jim

  47. jp says:

    brilliant tipping matt, naming all 3 winners in your selections- i’m staying with you for the other races-no pressure!!

  48. Craig says:

    Is Eddie Ahern one of the most overrated jockeys?? Twice now he has stuck to the rail and got himself boxed in with a shout of a place…..!! Not happy!!

  49. paul@norwichcity (@paul8taylor) says:

    got lost in the moment there, pardon the pun, but a big plus now for Midnight Soprano who beat Saddlers Rock at Leopardstown

  50. Jim says:

    Saddlers Rock and Asker Tau in one of my fantasy stables!!! Saddlers Rock and Simonon in another.

  51. Chris Worrall says:

    I think the additional weight did for Colour Vision. The 3.45 looks like a minefield to me, but I’ve sided with Midnight Soprano (17/2 BOG E/W this morning) and Hawaafez (7/2) to hopefully win and keep the placepot alive.

  52. jp says:

    just about to win another gold in the shooting -peter wilson. hope you like estimate in next matt

  53. MikeA says:

    Hi Matt, great start to the day for Betfolio….and I did give Wild Coco a mention, have to say that as it’s the only thing I’ve got right so far today

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Apologies Mike – well done for finding that one. You were the only one!

  54. Pete says:

    Chin well and truly up Matt with those 2 Betfolio winners – great work, well done
    Pete
    PS – When are you going to update the dirty dozen winning trainers list

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Soon, Pete. Things are always hectic, and it’s a case of having a clear week to do it. It’s not a ten minute job unfortunately…

    • Jim says:

      double well done on Betfolio.
      Plus another gold in canoe and 2 silvers and hopefully more in cycling and swimming
      Onwards and upwards

  55. John says:

    Botanica ffrom the ones that have run has the best figures but any guess on the newcomers.

  56. Chris Worrall says:

    Placepot down, but happliy in receipt of 19pts from betfolio so far today, so I’m with Botanica at 4/1 and a smal E/W punt at 14’s on Heading North: surely that’s a massive price?

  57. jp says:

    think that golden causeway has a leading chance on pedigree although they must have problems getting her here being a january fillie

  58. jp says:

    shame it came with a good run but got squeezed out – be watching for it next time

  59. Chris Worrall says:

    I’m off out for a while, so for what they’re worth, here’s what I had for the last two races.
    4.55: Shamaal Nibras (7/1) and Dutch Rose (10/1 E/W)
    5.25: Ruscello (8/1) and Marshgate lane (15/2)
    Good luck to everyone and thanks Matt for the running blog.

  60. Sheila Rose says:

    Just got the Reverse Forecast in the 4:20…..more luck than anything else! 😉

  61. Stuart H says:

    Winning courtesy of Saddlers Rock, I was stuck in a meeting and couldn’t get Heavy Metal on though so gutted! But I got offered a new job then so I’m happy 🙂 cheers Matt and good look for SOTD too!

  62. Patrick says:

    Following a good start have run out of winners. Plan A to get me back on track in the Galway Hurdle???????

  63. John says:

    A proper race to get stuck into. The 4.55 and the one best in is The least fancied of the Hannon runners Lor of the Shadows. Has run well here in the past and has the best figures. I will make it my nap.

  64. eamon says:

    Jake’s Destiny EW in the next for me, placed in all his starts and with better ground today he could go close. A couple of dangerous looking fillies but I prefer Hannon’s other two runners to Lord of the Shadows.

  65. Paul Leonard says:

    Was torn between Heavy Metal and Master of War, went for the latter, ha ha, have a good knack of getting on the wrong Johnson horse. Thanks for Luhaif yesterday, had it ew on a small stakes lucky 15 with Beyond and The Confessor, saved the day mate.

  66. MikeA says:

    I’m going for Campanology in the 4.55….very tough race to call. Apostle could go well at a decent price.

  67. eamon says:

    Lott(o)ery Handicap
    Hurler And Farmer EW to 1/4 stakes, in case he takes to turf and with Paul Hanagan in the saddle that’s a plus for me. Two 25/1 previous winners so in a lottery of a race, why not?!
    And 1pt on Marshgate Lane to win.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Communication issue in house Col – might be a missed day now. Chris will be taking over tomorrow for a few days.

  68. John says:

    The getting out stakes and Assizes Seems an appropriate choice. In form trainer and good figures. Best of luck whatever you go for.

  69. Mark J says:

    Come on Zamdy Man in the last. Thanks for everything today Matt – a profitable one (just!) for me.

  70. MikeA says:

    Prophesy and Travellers Tales for me for small stakes. Showing a small profit for the day so far, even if everything loses tonight – all down to other people’s expertise. Would trade it all for an Edge Your Bets winner or two this evening 😉

  71. George Hall says:

    Thanks Matt, Sorry not computer literate Blog One good thing it put my daughters in fits of laughter. I know poor old sod and you can stop smirking as well but seriously thanks for your tips, yes I did get that 80/1 I took it at 50/1 Just cant win can I.
    Keep smiling you doing a good job.

  72. Dave says:

    Hi Matt
    Fantastic fun today following the live blog which was a first and ended the day slightly up which is always a bonus
    Cheers
    Dave

  73. Tim says:

    Great trends & tips this week Mat, along with the top trainers article earlier in the week have had some good winners. Master of war / Colour Vision / Wild Coco E/W treb today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow.

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