Gold Nuggets: hints and tips on how to get the most out of Geegeez Gold

Gold Nuggets #13: Race Reviews, and Creating Tissues

In this extended double edition of Gold Nuggets, I cover two topics that I feel are super important for sharpening our understanding of value:

1. Result REviews: this is about looking back at the bigger priced winners on the day and trying to find snippets of form/data that gave the winner a chance. The objective is to a) better understand that every horse has some sort of chance, and b) start thinking more about that chance in terms of the odds available.

2. Creating a 'Tissue': That follows neatly into PREviewing a race and using the available information to rank horses in approximately order of their chance, and then to try to create a 'tissue' or odds line from the information you've aggregated. It's a great way of honing your skills and isolating value. Remember, we're comparing the tissue prices we come up with against the Starting Price market, not the early prices!

Don't forget, you can speed me up by clicking the little cog icon bottom right on the video, selecting 'Playback Speed' and then your choice from there - maybe 1.5x

 

Contents:

00:00 Introduction
01:40 Reviewing Results scene setter
03:15 Classy Al
11:45 Easy to find 20/1 winner (with Geegeez Gold!)
21:50 Point and shoot pace angle winner
25:15 Setting up your tissue on Geegeez Gold
26:15 Tissue overview: race helicopter view
30:50 Horse note taking
1:03:30 Converting notes into odds/probabilities
1:10:05 Comparing tissue with early prices
1:12:25 Summary: why we should do this from time to time

 

UPDATE: It's fair to say that I significantly under-estimated the chance of Love Your Work in the market. Incredibly, to my eye at least, he was sent off an odds-on shot. Regardless of the result (he was only fourth), I felt 4/6 was way too short - though I probably should have had him no bigger than 3/1 and just got it wrong, plain and simple.

Bookmark was extremely weak in the betting, presumably looking less than cherry ripe on his seasonal debut, but ran a very good race to be a closing third; he'll be an interesting one going forward. Swinton Noon was never going and ran as though something wonky, while Spantik was tenacious and stayed on well (as expected) in second (not expected) but just didn't have the pace to match Carrigillihy. Whatwouldyouknow and Quoteline Direct were fifth and sixth, pretty much in line with how I had them priced up.

The winner returned 5/1 and was 7/2 joint favourite on my tissue; second was 11/1 (7/1 on my tissue); and the third was 12/1 (7/2jf on my tissue). So a good race for me on this occasion but, it bears repeating, when the price disparity is as big as it was with Love Your Work (and Bookmark), it is more often than not the tissue compiler who has it wrong!

 

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5 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. stirling17
    stirling17 says:

    You recently published an article on time management with reference to analysing the days racing. I meant to read it but cannot find it. Can you point me in the right direction.
    Many thanks for all the gold nuggets and your help to make us better bettors.
    Bob Stirling

    Reply
  3. Lawrence Frampton
    Lawrence Frampton says:

    Great video Matt, a really in depth look into the methods for selection. I would also focus on the sort of OR marks horses are going close off either through places and handicap boxes ticked in the full profile or just through analysis of form. It is also useful to keep these notes and mark any horse up after watching the race, ie Bookmark in this if he shows signs at the end of the race of not being fit as you’ve highlighted his strengths for further races. Something else I look at to determine value would be to look at the horses SP in its last few runs. The SP ,as we know, is probably the best indicator of chance so if he was starting at 9/2 in similar standard races and now is going off at 12/1 then there’s implicit value as often the market move is on the back of 1 run which may not have suited the horse, it’s a quick way to spot over reaction to a horse’s chance

    Reply
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Some great observations there, Lawrence, thank you for sharing.

      I did reference the OR in relation to the favourite, who is incredibly short in the betting now!, but in the context of flat vs AW mark. His win chance is obvious but significantly overstated imo. Quoteline now a double figure price which is what I expected, though could shorten again before race time.

      As the market is taking shape I’m happy enough with my tissue, for all that there’s a very good chance I’ve under estimated the jolly. Just felt the combination of turf, on which the jury here is still out, and hold up run style, was a good bit to overcome. Have wagered commensurately…

      Thanks again for the comments. Very good points.

      Matt

      Reply
  4. narney3
    narney3 says:

    Nice one Matt – you must be pleased with the result of the Pontefract race if you were looking for the value bet after your analysis. I know I am!

    Reply

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