Guineas and Derby / Oaks…

It seems strange, dear reader, as it does every year, to be barely a month into the flat racing season and already have seen the back of 40% of the Classics. Annually, I whinge about the blatant anachronism of having this thoroughbred championship when most of the contenders are still wondering what these strange new hair growths are (i.e. in puberty). And no, I'm not talking about the jockeys!

However, such is the nature of our racing calendar, that ere was it so, and forever will it be so. The stuffed shirts are actually very slowly asphyxiating the sport in my opinion, with their reluctance to embrace the 21st century. But that rant is for another day.

It's time to turn our attentions to the Derby and Oaks, which will be run at Epsom in 31 days - the Oaks is a month today. As well as the 1000 Guineas, which incidentally is an awful trial for the Oaks (the winner of the longer race hasn't even run in the 1000 Guineas since 2003, and even then, Casual Look was back in sixth place), there will be trials at Chester, Lingfield and York in the next ten days or so.

It's my bet that we've yet to see the winner of the Oaks this season, but we will have by the time York has been and gone. Just don't ask me who it is.

If you do want help with that, though, Gavin's excellent Festival Trends will probably point you in the right direction. After finding 7/1 and 8/1 winners on Saturday with his only two selections, Sunday looked like taking the edge off the joy when the first two of his three picks there were well beaten, albeit at 16/1 and 14/1 respectively.

But no, he still managed to get us all a day ticket on the gravy train when Take The Hint did just that, having looked well held mid-race, before bounding up the Newmarket hill at a very tasty 15/2. Fair play to the man - he's on fire at the moment, and normal laws of averages suggest a trickier run is to follow.

However, for the sake of fifteen notes (you may have done a good many more last weekend if you were without that information), you can get his trends updates for the following:

6th - 7th : CHESTER – Cheshire Oaks, Chester Cup, Huxley Stakes, Chester Vase – Available 7.30pm TUESDAY 5th MAY
8th : CHESTER - Dee Stakes & Ormonde Stakes – Available 7.30pm THURSDAY 7th MAY
9th: LINGFIELD – Derby & Oaks Trials – AVAILABLE 7.30pm FRIDAY 8th MAY
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13th - 15th : YORK – Duke of York, Muisidora, Dante, Hambleton H'cap & Yorkshire Cup
16th : NEWBURY – The Lockinge
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23rd & 24th : CURRAGH – Irish 1000 & 2000 Guineas
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28th : SANDOWN – National Stakes, Henry II Stakes & Brigadier Gerard
*Plus extra races to be announced*

All that for fifteen quid. I know this is a plug, and I don't really make any apology for that, for two reasons:

1. The boy's tipping out of his skin at the moment

2. If there's better value ANYWHERE in the horse racing world, please let me know, and I'll put everyone onto it!

Gavin should really be charging the monthly price per meeting. That's been suggested to him by a number of his happy followers (no doubt wanting to keep the info to themselves!), but he doesn't want to do that, preferring instead to make it accessible to as many people as possible. Fair enough I say.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Enough from me:

Get Festival Trends for the remaining eleven days of racing covered in May here

*******

Racing today is at Catterick, Chepstow, Exeter, Fakenham and Southwell (AW). At Chepstow, I've a couple of fancies put up on the Flat Racing Profiles members' area (nice winners yesterday at 7/1 and 3/1 - well backed - for us yesterday).

Catterick is a tough one though. It's one of those ground dependant tracks, where on soft ground they go one side, and on fast ground they go the other. I suspect they may tack across today. If you're able to, and you want to have a bet today, I'd suggest watching to see what happens in the opening contest - perhaps the second race too - before investing.

The Summer jumps rarely catch my attention, but I do like one at Fakenham this afternoon a little. There is an odds on favourite in the race who may well win, but at the prices, Crashtown Hall looks the better value to my eye. Available at 3/1 on betfair as I write, he's from the up and coming Tim Vaughan stable, and has a certain AP McCoy in the plate.

The horse has won two from seven hurdle starts, and is dropped back into novice company after finding a handicap too tough, and not really getting the hang of chasing last time out. The fact that the champ is booked strongly suggests a big run is expected and, in a pretty weak race, 3/1 is a value price.

(Note, that means I think that if they ran the race four times, McCoy would win at least once. It does not mean I think he's a certainty - the favourite has run to a similar level of form. Apologies if this particular statement sounds like a lesson in egg-sucking for grannies...)

Good luck with your Tuesday wagers on a day of fairly uninspiring fare. Bigger fish to fry this week, starting at Chester tomorrow.

Get A Head Start at Chester with Festival Trends

Matt

13 replies
  1. mattgiffin says:

    i have just check todays tip and its down to 2/1

    now a little tip to all those who use betfair, most good horses dont lead from the front,they are normaly midfield or at the rear which will push the price up on betfair. i have placed a bet at 3.48/1 but also put in a bid at 4/1 5/1 and 6/1 now these may go unmatched but if it does ride from midfield the odds may get matched in the race if not then ive lost nothing
    do lots of smaller bets as a large bet takes longer to get matched ie 10*1.00 bets instead of a tenner bet..

  2. jacksullivan says:

    where would we be without the magnificent mattgriffin to work it all out for us and advise accordingly….
    thanks matt….
    you could perhaps pen a punting for dummies book if only you could find the time

  3. Joyce says:

    Mattgiffin……………liked your tip my friend, never even thought
    of that!

    will give it a try!

    regards…………………

  4. Paul says:

    Interesting thoughts Mattgriffin, inplay betting very risky, nothing worse than placing an order to back at 5/6 only to watch horse run terribly and see the layers gobble up your money, much better if betting inplay to watch and see how horse performs before backing, not sure how accurate your thoughts on decent horses run midway or to the rear are, some of the best are major frontrunners? Of course if the layers are prepared to take your money it makes no difference what size bet you put in, 10 two pound bets will get matched in exactly the same manner as a 20 pound bet, bearing in mind the minimum bet on betfair is 2 pounds not 1…..

  5. mattgiffin says:

    not sure if you are aware that the minimum bet you can place on betfair is 1p there are several ways to do it use betangel or fairbot and you can bet what you want i traded with 10p bets till i got the hang of betfair a good example was hatton flight on monday he traded at 10/1 and i got 18/1 in play and if you bet inplay and your horse nearly falls you want to see what that does to the odds my biggest gamble was casters rest which i traded at 480/1 and went on to win at 70/1 if you put 10p on a horse at 1000/1 and in play it goes down to 400/1 just lay it and you will make an instant profit |(green screen bet)

  6. mattgiffin says:

    GB / Chest 6th May / 14:45 2m2f Hcap Downhiller Back 7901844444 06-May-09
    09:04 7.8 0.01 7.8 Not Settled

    simples

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      mattg, not sure what is simples? Are you saying you fancy that horse?

      Anyone else have a fancy in the race?

      Matt

  7. peter glossop says:

    Hi Matt,

    Dont know if i’m using them properly but the draw figures gave me my first ever 40/1 winner at Beverley on Monday

    Cheers

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Peter

      Well done – yes, that winner was well favoured by the draw. Beverley is a very stiff track, meaning that those who go off too fast often get caught, and this was no exception. In fact, over 1m4f, stall one has won 10 of the 56 races in the previous five years (albeit when the odds were 20/1 or lower).

      These are the little gems in the documents for those who are prepared to scout for them. Good on you. 🙂

      Cheers!
      Matt

  8. mattgiffin says:

    sorry matt was showing someone that it is possible to bet less than 2 pound on betfair

    and yes i do fancy downhiller in this race all bets at chester

    strike up the band and braveheart move

  9. nikibarton says:

    hello again matt got a friend who has found a flaw and is making a small amount of 120.00 aday……with my constant nagging he has agreed to sell it……….i have tested it and it has lost once this year which is pretty impressive
    he is releasing this week and will limit his members
    are you interested in the link once i have got it you can look at it yourself before deciding sorry cant explain more

    niki

  10. john walsh says:

    i was given this advice by a pro in south afarica it works for me just think regarding systems nick mordin said in one of his books once a system is made public the pricees are lost and it is no longer value for money

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