Gold Nuggets: Negative Draw Bias

In this week's episode, we look at the value of identifying horses that have run well from a poor draw; and how to spot these horses and add them to your Geegeez Tracker.

The video was inspired by an article published this week on site, which can be viewed here.

00:00 Intro
04:20 Looking at historical races
13:15 How to research negative draw bias using QT
15:00 Example 1
18:00 Adding to Tracker
22:20 Example 2
24:45 Example 3
27:45 Video Recap

Gold Nuggets: York Biases

In this edition of Gold Nuggests, I'll focus on York's Dante meeting and, specifically, a few biases that often show themselves on the slightly quirkier than first meets the eye Knavesmire track.

The running order is as follows, so feel free to skip to the parts of interest to you:

00:00 Intro
00:40 New odds service
05:00 Course guides / familiarisation
08:15 York 1m4f Bias
09:40 York 6f Bias
13:00 York 1m Bias
15:45 York 7f Bias

Also, remember the little cog icon bottom right from which you can adjust the playback speed of my steady drawl!

Gold Nuggets #13: Race Reviews, and Creating Tissues

In this extended double edition of Gold Nuggets, I cover two topics that I feel are super important for sharpening our understanding of value:

1. Result REviews: this is about looking back at the bigger priced winners on the day and trying to find snippets of form/data that gave the winner a chance. The objective is to a) better understand that every horse has some sort of chance, and b) start thinking more about that chance in terms of the odds available.

2. Creating a 'Tissue': That follows neatly into PREviewing a race and using the available information to rank horses in approximately order of their chance, and then to try to create a 'tissue' or odds line from the information you've aggregated. It's a great way of honing your skills and isolating value. Remember, we're comparing the tissue prices we come up with against the Starting Price market, not the early prices!

Don't forget, you can speed me up by clicking the little cog icon bottom right on the video, selecting 'Playback Speed' and then your choice from there - maybe 1.5x

 

Contents:

00:00 Introduction
01:40 Reviewing Results scene setter
03:15 Classy Al
11:45 Easy to find 20/1 winner (with Geegeez Gold!)
21:50 Point and shoot pace angle winner
25:15 Setting up your tissue on Geegeez Gold
26:15 Tissue overview: race helicopter view
30:50 Horse note taking
1:03:30 Converting notes into odds/probabilities
1:10:05 Comparing tissue with early prices
1:12:25 Summary: why we should do this from time to time

 

UPDATE: It's fair to say that I significantly under-estimated the chance of Love Your Work in the market. Incredibly, to my eye at least, he was sent off an odds-on shot. Regardless of the result (he was only fourth), I felt 4/6 was way too short - though I probably should have had him no bigger than 3/1 and just got it wrong, plain and simple.

Bookmark was extremely weak in the betting, presumably looking less than cherry ripe on his seasonal debut, but ran a very good race to be a closing third; he'll be an interesting one going forward. Swinton Noon was never going and ran as though something wonky, while Spantik was tenacious and stayed on well (as expected) in second (not expected) but just didn't have the pace to match Carrigillihy. Whatwouldyouknow and Quoteline Direct were fifth and sixth, pretty much in line with how I had them priced up.

The winner returned 5/1 and was 7/2 joint favourite on my tissue; second was 11/1 (7/1 on my tissue); and the third was 12/1 (7/2jf on my tissue). So a good race for me on this occasion but, it bears repeating, when the price disparity is as big as it was with Love Your Work (and Bookmark), it is more often than not the tissue compiler who has it wrong!

 

Gold Nuggets #12: Choose Your Battles

In this episode of Gold Nuggets I consider a part of the puzzle that is often overlooked, and one that - if done even nearly correctly - gives us the very best chance of coming out in front. It is particularly relevant now that the longer days mean numerous evening meetings and a daily race count regularly north of forty. So, in the video that follows, I cover the crucial art of race selection.

In the video, I refer to a previous mini-series I produced called 'The Price Is Wrong', which you can look at here.

Contents:

00:00 Intro
00:40 "The Price is Wrong"
03:25 'Top down' Race Selection
05:20 How "My Races" helps
07:40 Quick Race Analysis Example
13:15 'Bottom Up' Race Selection
19:45 Summary

Gold Nuggets #11: Trainer Profiling

Inspired by Dave Renham's excellent recent trilogy of articles around trainer micro angles, this week's Gold Nuggets is about empowering anybody curious enough to go searching for such morsels of wagering goodness for themselves. In it, I show you how to do it, where to store your tasty titbits, and offer two examples to get you started.

It's all in the video below, or you can cut to the chase using the handy contents list here:

00:00 Intro
00:34 What is trainer profiling?
04:15 How to avoid back fitting your angles
07:05 Example 1: Paul Midgley
23:00 How to store trainer profiles within Geegeez Gold
28:00 Example 2: Johnny Murtagh

Oh, and when you find something you like, if you're happy to share, please do leave a comment at the bottom of this post.

Thanks, and good luck!

Matt

 

Gold Nuggets #10: Prepping for the Flat Season, Part 2

With orange segment munched and hairdryer treatment still ringing in our bleeding lugholes, we embark chastened from the dressing room for the second half of 'Gold Nuggets: The Flat Season Prep One'.

In part one, we looked at some useful reports for the early part of the season, and had an overview with Draw Analyser. Now it's time to get stuck in, our goal being to forearm ourselves with titbits, snippets and, well, nuggets that we can deploy on demand as the quick'uns get rolling.

So, in this concluding part, I go into more depth on Draw Analyser, including the pivotal importance of understanding track layouts when undertaking research; and we look at the potentially highly lucrative game of horse profiling through a worked example. Contents list below, and referenced links are beneath the video.

00:00 Introduction
00:50 Course Guides / Track Layout context
07:30 Draw and Run Style Analysis
20:56 Horse Profiling intro
22:40 How to Profile Horses
27:20 Example: Ugo Gregory

 

 

UK Racecourses page              Irish Racecourses page

LINK: Horse Profiling 'How to'

Gold Nuggets #9: Prepping for the Flat Season, Part 1

After a fortnight off, it's the return of Gold Nuggets, a (usually) weekly vidcast where I try to bring the Geegeez Gold toolkit to life for you, so that you can go and do some good (or gooder!) stuff for yourselves.

In this week's instalment, I reveal the reports I use to know more at the start of the flat turf season; and I also introduce Draw Analyser as a research tool that can put you miles in front of your fellow (non-geegeez) bettors. Next week, I'll dig further into that tool as well as illustrating some ways to profile individual horses for profit. That's for the future, but now let's get to today's Gold Nuggets...

Featuring:

00:00 Intro
01:28 Reports overview
02:36 The Shortlist
05:10 Trainer Jockey Combo Report
06:52 Report Angles [See also first link below]
08:35 Trainer Statistics 14 Day view
13:55 Trainer 1st Handicap Start
16:10 Trainer Change Report
18:40 Trainer 2yo 1st Start Report
21:40 Draw Analyser [See also second link below]

 

 

 

Gold Nuggets #8: The Cheltenham Festival one

Next week sees the biggest betting race meeting of the year, the Cheltenham Festival. And, to arm you with more intel than you can shake a muddy stick at, I share a few cracking resources both home and away, as it were.

The timeline on this video is as follows:

00:00 Intro

00:38 Using Query Tool for Cheltenham Festival research

08:45 GaultStats Cheltenham Festival trends

10:00 Matt Tombs' Cheltenham Festival trends

12:00 Timeform Cheltenham Festival trends

And, beneath the video square below, you'll find links to the referenced content.

Oh, and I mention London Racing Club's Festival Preview with Matt Tombs, Lydia Hislop and the Post's Lee Mottershead. It's on Thursday 10th March from 7pm at the Wrights Lane Holiday Inn, two mins walk from High St Kensington tube. £15 non-members, £8 members. Always a brilliant night if you're nearby and can get along. Maybe see you there?

Good luck!

Matt

 

 

Sites and tools referenced are:

Query Tool

Geegeez.co.uk Cheltenham Festival microsite

Gault Stats

Matt Tombs' Trends

Timeform Trends

 

Gold Nuggets #7: Assorted Titbits

Matt here with another instalment of Gold Nuggets. This week, I'm going off piste a touch to share some interesting (hopefully) titbits. Specifically:

- Getting an early leg up on your Cheltenham Festival study
- New feature coming soon: Profiler inline
- News from the BHA on handicap hurdle debutants

In that last section, I refer to an article from the BHA's handicapping team which you can read here.

Matt

Gold Nuggets #6: Jackpot Windmill Tilting

After a week off recharging the old battery pack, Gold Nuggets is back with a slightly longer than usual edition. This week, I look at how to frame a jackpot permutation using the Gold racecards, Fast Finishers, Query Tool, Draw Analyser and the multi-race ticket builder. See what you think...

Matt

NEW: ‘My Races’ Feature Added

Today we introduced another new feature, this time a relatively simple one called 'My Races'. The concept is merely to allow users to 'pin' races of interest to the top of what can often be a very long list of races, especially during the summer, and on Saturdays and Bank Holidays.

To select a race, just click the star to the left; and to deselect, click the same star a second time.

Here's a short three-minute video showing how you can use 'My Races' in conjunction with the racecard filters to rapidly whittle your idea of the wheat from the remaining chaff.

Gold Nuggets #4: Using QT to Find Race Trends

In this week's Gold Nuggets, I show you how to use our awesome Query Tool to drill down into a race's history in search of profiles, patterns and, heck let's say it, trends! I've used the example of the Thyestes Chase, a high class extended three-mile handicap which often throws up a Grade 1 performer of the future. See what you think...

Gold Nuggets #3: Px Form & Jackpot Joy

In this week's third instalment of Gold Nuggets, I show you how to:

- get a head start with your big race ante-post betting

- use Query Tool to get specific with draw and pace insights

- get an instant feel for how well a horse has performed in its recent races

- have fun with low stakes, optimised jackpot betting

 

It's all in the video below. Two points before you press play:

  1. The video has 'chapters' so if you're interested (or not) in certain parts, click the chapter title to view all available chapters

  2. To make me speak faster, click the cog icon and choose the speed you want

 

 

 

Exotic Betting Two-Parter

Multi-race Bet Builder

Gold Nuggets #2

Week 2 of Gold Nuggets and, wouldn't you just know it, the racing is pants. That makes trying to identify interesting horses and angles tricky. In spite of that, I've a staying chaser with a jockey worth noting, a fit and versatile flat 'capper whose last run can be readily forgiven, a wide drawn pace horse in a truly awful contest, and a quick thought about the draw and pace on Southwell's new tapeta surface.

Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.

Gold Nuggets #1

In this first in a new series of videos and blog posts, I'll be looking at various elements of Geegeez Gold in search of a value approach, and maybe a value winner or two along the way as well.

Today's episode focuses on the importance of heavy ground form; and run style at a couple of courses and distances on the all weather.

Pro tip: if I speak a little slowly for you, use the cog icon bottom right to change the playback speed.

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