How to profit from Hannon and Haggas
Following on from my debut article about my approach to ‘profiling’ I thought I would share with you an interesting mini system that it may be worth following (paper trading first of course!). Firstly can I also say a big thank you to the 220 odd people who read the article – I hope you found it interesting.
Before sharing the system I should highlight that one of the horses put up to follow in the article above runs in the 8.40 at Haydock. Hydrant is his name and I have been waiting for him to run in June as 3 of his 4 career handicap wins (for two different trainers over 2012-2013) have been in June and he appears to peak at this time of year. This race looks wide open but on the back of his decent run LTO I am happy to back him EW at 6/1. I won’t be going mad as he doesn’t win that often and he is still a few pounds above his last winning mark but I expect a solid run.
Anyway, that is Hydrant, I now want to discuss Hannon and Haggas.
As well as ‘profiling’ I like to build systems (using horseracebase.com) and to experiment with different ideas. These can range from systems that may make 150-200 points a year to mini angles that may make 25-50 points a year. My main focus of attention is on trainer angles and I thought I would share this little mini system that I created last night. It is hot off the press and clearly I haven’t been tracking selections but I have been impressed with the historic results. I will be paper trading these over the next few months to see if they continue as they have done before and if so I may back them properly next season.
So, the rules:-
- Trained by R.Hannon or W.Haggas
- Flat Handicaps only (not AW)
- Won Last Time Out in a Handicap
- Running in the same class or up 1 class from last run.
- 12/1 or below
And that is it. I am a great believer in keeping things simple with these mini angles but from the results below it is clear that these two trainers are adept at returning last time out winners back to the winners enclosure. The note of caution is that up until the start of 2014 the results for Hannon were for Hannon Snr. I have no reason to think Hannon Jnr will not continue and other than the name on the paper work I am not sure if too much has changed at the yard.
For both trainers combined…
Now I am not too sure what happened in 2011 but both yards slightly underperformed with the win percentage 10% or so below the other years and that clearly made a difference. Thankfully not too much damage was done and using BOG I am sure a small profit would have been made.
We can look at the breakdown by trainer:-
I like the fact that he appears to be getting better with this type of runner and although he has had one very good year his stats are generally consistent and it will be interesting to track how he does during the rest of this year and whether he can repeat 2012 and 2013.
With strike rates above 25% it means losing runs should not be too severe. In fact the longest losing run has been 10, which has only happened once. From 2009-2013 these ‘two’ trainers have averaged 25 points per year combined and as a mini system I don’t think that is too bad. They are both performing at least 30% above market expectations so there is every reason to believe they will continue to make steady profits.
I hope this has been of some interest. Clearly this will not make you rich but it is a fun little system to keep an eye on that I suspect will be profitable for a few years to come. I will be paper trading for a few months to see if 2014 is as profitable as previous years and if so I will start backing the selections. Coincidently there are two qualifiers on the 11th:-
4.00 Newbury- After the Goldrush
5.05 Newbury – Storm Rider
Let’s see how they do,