In-running trading diary, part 2

Ayr and Ripon

Monday 7th August

By Russell Clarke

I traded the first seven races of the day from Ayr and Ripon. Below is the crib-sheet for each race along with a brief description of the trading decisions.

Ayr… Good/Soft

2.25
Roman Secret @2.9… Was outpaced on his debut, possibly due to being green, but did keep on well in the closing stages. Consensus is that he will be suited by stepping up a furlong to 7f, but this is not backed up by his dosage numbers [which I utilise in these situations]. He has a poor draw on the outside (0.44 PRB). His sire’s record with 2yo’s is 6% win/21% place against 9% win/26% place for all ages.

Prior to the race, Roman Secret was a bit reluctant to enter the stalls. In the race itself, he never really travelled but I failed to trade him! The crib sheet notes were quite strong, but I was wary that the race was full of debutants and perhaps a little trigger shy on the first race of the day.

3.00

One Dickie @2.26… Took a very keen hold last time in blinkers and disappointed. Headgear change to cheekpieces here, but if he pulled again in the early stages, I would trade him. He also has an awkward head carriage, but that isn’t useful for trading as he runs decent numbers when displaying that trait anyway.

Turbo Command @4.6… Has taken a keen hold when disappointing and is rarely seen over 1m (7f his optimal trip to date).

In the race, Turbo Command did take a hold and I laid him at 4.7. He took the shortest route however and when the favourite looked in trouble, I traded out @7.2. Surprisingly, he stayed on very well into second place, although I was relaxed having traded out.

3.35

JKR Cobbler @ 2.16… Was up 4lbs for last win when he was potentially favoured by being held up in a decently run race. Being held up and drawn high gave a 0.26 PRB and so I would watch to see if the scenario of a slow race and him being held up wide may occur.

Bernie The Bear @ 4… Looks thoroughly exposed and so I would trade at any sign of weakness.

In the race itself, JKR Cobbler wasn’t far from the pace and Bernie The Bear gradually drifted in the market through the race and I was never able to secure a price close to his bsp. No trade.

4.10

Flyawaydream@ 1.67… He was predicted to race prominently on the Geegeez pace map, which is an advantage here.

Glasses Up @4.8… Was an 8yo with 58 runs! But was falling down the weights considerably to a mark below his last winning one.

In the race, Flyawaydream was slowly away and I could have traded at that point, since it was a deviation from the anticipated, but I lacked conviction and only got involved when he was niggled at the back of the field. I laid at 2.72 (a little late) and then backed him back @4 (which, in hindsight, was premature) when he briefly looked like he might rally. I think I was wary of him being a Prescott ‘improver’ and conscious that the race was weak. Despite that, it was my most profitable trade of the day.

Ripon… Soft

2.45

Night Eyes @1.95… Lowther Entry. Most experienced in the field and should lead.

Roast Chestnut @3… Had shown promise on his debut.

It was a tricky race to call throughout and I was never tempted to trade it.

3.20

Juri @5.9… 3yo debut (but the trainer stats were positive for stable debutants). Wearing a hood on debut and going down to the start early suggested he was perhaps not straightforward. I thought he was worthy of single focus in the race. He also drifted appreciably in the betting.

Corellian Star @3.1… 3rd run but on dosage stats I wasn’t convinced that 5f was far enough for him (though tempered because of the soft ground).

Prior to the race I saw Havana Pursuit @8 look very reluctant to post. I placed a lay at 8 (anticipating a drift because of his antics), but as soon as I pressed the button, he came to life and went down to post perfectly well! Simultaneously, he was backed into 6.4! My reason for the trade was no longer valid and so I swallowed a red by backing him at 6.4. He went on to be backed into less than 4!

In the race, Juri was both slowly away and jinked to his right (drawn on the outside). As I had sole focus on him, I was hitting the lay button and got some at 13. He briefly recovered and I backed him back @21. I then saw on my TPD (Total Performance Data) Par Chart that he had used a lot of energy getting back in the race and had another lay @36 when he looked beaten. I had no need to trade out of that final lay.

3.55

Ey Up It’s Maggie @ 2.38… Had won off this mark and had a valid excuse for her last run.

Storm Fox @ 4.8… Had run poorly on the ground many times.

In the race itself, Storm Fox grabbed the stands rail and although he raced at the upper end of the pace chart, I could never justify a trade and his price gradually ran away from me.

A day I traded conservatively overall. I traded three of the seven races. I managed to take a ‘red’ pre-race on Havana Star which highlighted an important ‘rule’ that if your reason for entering a trade disappears, then you should exit regardless of price… no finger crossing!

If anyone has any questions, then please feel free to leave them in the comments section and I will answer them.

- Russell

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• Pinball Wizard, Part 5: In-Running Aids and Hacks
• Pinball Wizard, Part 4: The Practice of Winning
• Pinball Wizard, Part 3: The Theory of Winning In-Running
• Pinball Wizard, Part 2: The Psychology of In-Running Betting
• Pinball Wizard: An Introduction to In-Running Betting Part 1