Irish Grand National: Easter Horses To Follow

A short post, dear reader, to tell you of a couple of horses I like the look of today and tomorrow. One nearly made the FRP draw selection, one is quite close to me, and I've taken a squint at the Irish Grand National tomorrow.

First up, Night Orbit (in whom I have a small interest) takes his second cut at hurdles today, having been a running on 2nd on his debut over barriers.

Orbit looked far from fluent that day, but will have improved for the experience. Moreover, the booking of a professional jockey, and the stiffer finish at Plumpton (2.00) will be in his favour.

Of the oppo, Alan King's Sam Lord is clear form pick. But he's a tad mulish and has missed a series of penalty kicks prior to today. He'll score soon enough, but I wouldn't want circa evens on it being this afternoon.

There is also a group of unraced former Flat horses in the field: Thoroughly Red, an Irish maiden winner could well be the best of the bunch.

In summary, it's an interesting (though not a hot) race, with a number of imponderables. Night Orbit should certainly be in the places - assuming he jumps moderately well - and he could win if Sam Lord does his usual. Finger crossed, but wagers kept small in this camp.

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Over at Musselburgh, I almost nominated Rothesay Dancer (2.50) as a draw profiles selection. She's well drawn (obviously), has won at the track and trip for today's rider (who has won four times on the horse), and comes here in form. The grade is fine for her and, whilst her highest winning rating is 3lbs lower than the 73 she goes off today, she must be in the mix this afternoon.

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Tomorrow in Ireland, they race for the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse. It's a reasonably strong trends race, as follows:

- Eight of the last nine winners were 7-9 years old, so I'll exclude anything not in this age range.

- All of the last nine winners had won over 3m or more, so shorter runners are dropped.

- 8 from 9 lugged 10 stone 12 pounds or less; 7 from 9 lugged 10-08 or less. (Note, 8/9 were in the handicap proper).

- 8 out of 9 were placed in Listed company or better earlier in their career.

This leaves a shortlist of Arbor Supreme, Rare Bob, Niche Market and Emma Jane. Interestingly, six of the last eight winners had had between eleven and thirteen runs over fences prior to winning.

Rare Bob is a six race novice, which doesn't mean he can't win, but I'll side with more experience.

Emma Jane has had nine starts, and is also reluctantly passed over.

Arbor Supreme has had 12 chase starts, and Niche Market the same. So my tree against the field (Arbor is Latin for tree, geddit?!) is Arbor Supreme, and I'll side each way with Niche Market, who has some strong form in better races.

Happy Easter!

Matt

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30 replies
  1. mattgiffin says:

    is forest leafs the next mon mone this is the highest odds horse i can find which may be in with a chance after the grand national a wider approach may be needed

    i have a three way place on forest leafs emma jane and rare bob

    so we will see on the day

    18171/1

    the bookies have limited me to 50.00 each way so ill put one online as well

  2. broggsy says:

    hiya matt giffin how and where do you put a three way place bet like the one you have described?

    Good luck for tommorrow

  3. Wilf says:

    It is very interesting both Gavin and yourself come up with niche market, but like Gavin, I like the look of EMMA JANE. Its a pity she doesnt like the look of me, but there you go. Best of luck, Wilf

  4. Donkers says:

    Thanks to you and Gavin I have just won nearly £1000 on Niche Market! When the trend work they REALLY work! Fantastic stuff guys. Thank you very much indeed. 🙂

  5. Darrin Clark says:

    Nice one Matt & Gavin (must have coluded!)

    Break open the Champagne, 80-1 on Betfair this morning and 10-1 to place. £10 on each was good enough. Shame you didn’t put up the trifecta with Church Island and a New Story!

  6. David Baker says:

    Niche Market – what a great tip. Just had £10 each way on it… Thanks for the advice.

    David

  7. Donkers says:

    In my excitement I forgot I’d had a few quid win only on Betfair on Niche Market last night… I only got 65!!

    So £1,500 profit! Thanks again. Wonderful 🙂

  8. Larry says:

    Thank you Matt and Gavin, a tenner e/w this afternoon in Hills and took 40/1 early price, walked out with just over a monkey, excellent!!

  9. rangitoto says:

    bloody good call only a newbie to to this site looks like i have been missing something

  10. mattgiffin says:

    1

    Fairyhouse
    14:10
    Race winner
    2009-04-13 14:10:00
    Serpentaria @ 1.14
    Win

    2

    Fairyhouse
    14:40
    Race winner
    2009-04-13 14:40:00
    Big Zeb @ 3.00
    Win

    3

    Fairyhouse
    17:05
    Race winner
    2009-04-13 17:05:00
    Taipans Way @ 5.50
    Win

    4

    Fairyhouse
    17:40
    Race winner
    2009-04-13 17:40:00
    Stewarts House @ 5.00
    Place (2)

    Channel Internet

    Bet Placed At 13/04/2009

    Bet Type Lucky 15

    this was my cracker

  11. kev haskell says:

    Fantastic niche Market got 80 on betfair this morning and now awaiting the Scotish national i had a ew double with Merigo and Chief Dan George fingers crossed! once again thanks

  12. mattgiffin says:

    omg combination forecast a lucky 15 plus niche market and rare bob e/w thanks again i would not of included niche with out yr tip

  13. richard says:

    First timer on your site and a winner at 85-1 on betfair. Does this happen often?

  14. oliver mann says:

    Matt

    Well done & thanks

    Did not have a lot “on” (pretty brassic) but a win at that price is wonderful !
    How do you do it ??

    Thanks again

    Oliver

  15. Hendo says:

    Nice work Matt,

    back niche market $100 at 65
    and 50 place at 10

    sweeeettttt

    Happy Easter

  16. David Dickinson says:

    Matt & Gavin
    Really well done to you both!!
    Only back in small amounts but a winner is a winner and theres no better services than your two sites.
    Whatsnext?
    Cheers
    David

  17. Daniel says:

    Aaaagh, working on monday, had a quick look at blog before going to work, remembered Arbour Supreme, but for the life of me could not remember Niche Market. When I heard the result it sort of rang a bell, had to check my e mail, when I got home, hoping I was wrong and it wasn’t your other tip. I am now having to look forward to your Craven stakes tips, where if I am working everything will be written down or printed out, Good luck Daniel

  18. nigel bridges says:

    Matt & Gavin
    many many thanks for the niche market tip only bet small but that £208 will fund a few more bets

  19. Michael says:

    Matt, Gavin
    Took 40’s on william hill about niche market, can’t believe it, think it’s the biggest odds winner i’ve ever had, quality info, can’t wait for the next big price winner now!!! 😉
    Regards Michael

  20. craig robinson says:

    new 2 this site brill tip small bet cos ad fingers burned many times hope the tips keep comin like dat thank you again : )

  21. graham regan says:

    as the proud owner of niche market i’m delighted some of you made a few quid out of the horses win. the irish grand national is indeed a trends race and we thought our fella was spot on for it on all levels i.e. track, weight, jockey etc.

    roll on next season and let’s see what the love of this family’s lives can do.

Comments are closed.