Jackpot Advice for Newmarket

Winning the totejackpot for a £2 bet

Winning the totejackpot for a £2 bet

For all those glory-seeking souls who are attempting the jackpot at Newmarket today, I have a few pieces of advice. Firstly, I'm going to assume you'll ignore my overarching suggestion, which is not to play unless you have £2,000 or more to invest, as you're unlikely to have sufficient coverage.

Obviously, this suggestion is somewhat contradicted by that amazingly lucky chap, Mr Whitely, who copped £1.4 million at Exeter off a two quid perm!

OK, so the sensible option out of the way, here's what you need to know:

1. Favourites at Newmarket in September have a terrible record, winning just 23.38% of the time since 2007 (compared with normal winning favourites' percentages of around 30-33%)

2. The front three in the betting have fared little better, winning 57% of races in the same time frame, compared with 66% of flat races generally.

Your first 30 days for just £1

3. The above stats mean that, on average, you'd hope to get between one and two winning favourites; and about the same number of winning second and/or third favourites. This means that if you went three deep in every race on that basis, your permutation would already by 729 bets (which, at the minimum stake of 50p is £364.50), and you can only hope to have located half of the winners!

4. There are lies, damned lies, and statistics. Clearly, some favourites have a better chance than others. There have been only two winning favourites in the 3.20 Listed fillies contest, and only one winning joint favourite in the 3.55 Somerville Tattersalls Stakes in the last ten years. If you're still alive come the last leg, well done! And note that there have been three winning jollies, but also three winners at double figure odds.

5. Four year olds do well, relative to their numbers, in that 'lucky last'.

6. The opening maiden has been run twice, and won by a Godolphin horse both times, one with a favourite. Unhelpfully, the boys in blue have three entries this time, including the likely favourite.

7. Pay attention to non-runners. If horses come out it can have a profound bearing on the shape of your bet. (For instance, Stature is already out in the first and he would have made some of my tickets).

8. The combination of winning horses' market positions is likely to be something like this: one or two favourites; one or two second or third favourites; one or two in the fourth to sixth market slots; and a 'surprise'. Construct your tickets around that notion.

9. Yes, I did say tickets. Anyone who simply places all their fancies on the same ticket in a single perm is mad, even if they win. Quite simply, this is a terrible way to bet placepot, jackpots and any other wager where you cannot possibly have the same faith in all of the selections you're using!

10. My ticket builder software will help to construct optimal tickets. It's available here free to members of Horse Racing Experts.

For the record, I'm still undecided about getting involved today. Obviously, I'm tempted by the size of the pot, and of course I have the ticket builder to help me optimize my staking. But... But... it looks fiendishly difficult, so I might just do the cop out of covering the top three or four in each race across different perms and hope that the jackpot pays low, but high relative to the cumulative odds.

I know, I know, that's pathetic. 🙂

The very best of luck if you're playing today - you'll need it!!!

Matt

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13 replies
    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Thank you Peter. On another subject, I can see why you like it so much so far south. 🙂

      Matt

  1. mark
    mark says:

    Matt what is the ticket builder software i do placepots daily woudl it reduce my permutations. cheers mark. and goodluck if u do the jackpot.

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Mark

      It is a way of breaking up your choices into A, B and – if you need them – C selections, depending on your level of fancy. It then constructs optimal combinations of those selections, reducing perms by as much as 75-80%.

      People have already been using it in surprising and very effective ways, which I’m delighted about.

      Best Regards,
      Matt

  2. Ed
    Ed says:

    Hi Matt,
    I have decided not to play today as my perms will come to over 400 quid! I have however gone for the placepot which means they’ll all place in 1st!
    Just to keep you updated on my multi-bet experience, I had another successful day yesterday with some combination trebles. Playing with small stakes I just missed out on another forecast double but made 35 quid profit on the whole bet. I understand this is down to my excellent form reading skills (or run of good luck more than likely!!) but the profits are down to mainly keeping the cost of the permuatations to a minimum using the builder software. I am currently nearly 900 quid to the good! Bravo to yourself for introducing the software!

    Regards,

    Ed

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Lovely stuff Ed. I too have gone placepot rather than jackpot, for the same reason. My total jackpot stake would have been around 900 quid, and I have only moderate confidence at that!

      Regarding luck/judgment, etc, the thing with the multi bet builder is that it allows for a modicum of bad luck/judgment, by affording more ‘lines’.

      Matt

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Indeed – is it wrong that I’m hoping it’s not won? (Unless of course the ticket is held by a Geegeez reader!!!) 😀

      Matt

  3. Mondo Ray
    Mondo Ray says:

    Race three let me down when Imperial Pippin came 2nd and my other choice, Parvana, was nowhere. Had 1st and 3rd in the first race, first two in the second, Crius and Red Seventy in 4th, Times Up single banker in 5th and 1st two in sixth. Did the exacta in the 5.40 with Boogie Shoes and Cruiser so I’ve has an excellent day!

    Using the stats from Racing Trends, and your info today, and allowing myself lots of time for study, I’ve done remarkably well on single bets on Betfair, where outsiders always pay lots more than industry odds. Dandy, btw, was available at 32 when I took it; could have been more earlier. It was also the RP Stats first race tip.

    Tomorrow – bring it on!

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Wow, that was close! I would have had Cumani’s in the third, but I was nowhere near Dandy or the last winner. At least you weren’t crying as the last ticket on second placed Swiss Dream. That would have been a choker!

  4. Pat Dennehy
    Pat Dennehy says:

    I had a punt on Swiss dream but repaired the damage by backing Messrs fallon and stoute
    Does anybody have KF strike rate when riding for his former guvnor

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Pat

      Since the start of 2009, they are 10 wins from 48 runs (20.83% strike rate) and a profit at SP of 2.24 points. Interestingly, they hit the frame 30 out of 48 times for a 62.5% place strike rate, and an each way profit of 15.41 points (which equates to around 30% ROI).

      Matt

  5. Phil
    Phil says:

    Hi Matt

    Did the placepot yesterday and it would have been a good day apart from the 4:30 where I chose Nehaam and End of the Affair. Hopefully better luck today!!!!

    Phil

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