Leicester Placepot Picks, 24th July 2013

>>> If you want to be the first to be notified of placepot picks, and all geegeez posts, please follow @geegeez_uk on twitter. <<<

Geegeez Placepot

Geegeez Placepot

"I'm going to take a punt that it's softer than that. If I'm right about that, we can also expect a few non-runners to throw spanners in the works."

And so it was that the soft ground caused two non-runners in the previously nine horse second race. Banker selection, Junior Jack, finished third with only two places paying. One non-runner and that would have been fine. As it happened, I thought the placepot should have paid a good bit more as the results weren't all that easy to get, in my opinion. Anyway, it was no good, and we roll on.

Today, I'll be brutally honest: if I wasn't writing this piece, I wouldn't be even remotely tempted to open my wallet for a shocking day's racing, where quantity simply overpowers quality. As it is, I'm going to take a look at Leicester. The Leicester of five evils, you might say.

5.40 - Leg 1: We start with a handicap for novice amateur riders, whatever that is. I think it means they're inexperienced even in the context of amateur riders. So, essentially, we kick off in a tombola. I'm looking for a horse with the usual form credentials, but also one that has gone well for an inexperienced rider, if possible.

Unsurprisingly, there's been money for nothing - so far - and perhaps even more depressingly, the original seventeen runners in this handicap are now down to fifteen and, therefore, only three places. On the bright side, if we get through, a lot of others likely won't!

The best jockey here is probably Mr J Harding (three wins, two more places, from ten rides. He's also riding tonight for the hugely in form Paul Cole stable, and those two pointers are more than sufficient for A status. And he's joined by Boy The Bell, an ideal horse for such a race: he's won six times in his career for six different jockeys, four of them apprentices!

I'm also going to try a trio of longer priced speculatives in what could end up being a 'pot-defining heat. Rio Cobolo has been placed in three of his four runs at this track and his jockey was second in a similar novice amateur race yesterday, albeit riding the favourite. Adiator has only had four starts and has been nibbled at in the betting. He's the likely jolly here and makes B on little more than those two points.

And King Of Wing has only won one race. That was over seven furlongs seventeen starts ago. Today he races over the trip for the first time since! In a race where we're clutching at straws, he could go close.

A - 1 (Stormbound), 9 (Boy The Bell)
B - 2 (Adiator), 5 (Rio Cobolo), 7 (King Of Wing)

6.10 - Leg 2: Sedenoo is the obvious one, running under a penalty for a recent success. Tempting as it is to bank on him, there are better bankers later, so I'll spread out in the hope - possible, for sure - that he fails to run to that level again, with just two places up for grabs here. So there's definitely space for fellow last time out winner, Deepest Blue; and Dumbarton Rock, who finished four the last time he raced over similar conditions. From that race, the first, second, third, fifth, sixth, eighth and ninth have all won since. The seventh horse hasn't run since!

A - 1 (Sedenoo)
B - 3 (Deepest Blue), 4 (Dumbarton Rock)

6.40 - Leg  3: A seller, and a moderate one even by that grade's usual standard. Mandy The Nag is rated 68, though her three turf runs probably amount to a stone below that level. It's tempting to leave her out completely but instead I'll take another with her. Reconsider Baby has a fair chance on her best form, including a staying on third in a better race than this over a furlong short. She ought to go very close in a weak race.

Nordikhab is part-owned by a geegeez reader, and the feeling with him is that he's not trained on. They're not too hopeful.

A - 1 (Mandy The Nag), 6 (Reconsider Baby)

7.15 - Leg 4: Mankini should win this, especially now that Nave is a non-runner. However, all three have some sort of chance, so Kittens and Almagest are included on B, in case tactics and/or ability undo the jolly.

A - 3 (Mankini)
B - 1 (Almagest), 4 (Kittens)

7.45 - Leg 5: Port Alfred. Banker.

A - 1 (Port Alfred)

8.20 - Leg 6: And we close with a competitive little handicap. Azrael looked to have a decent chance, if not getting caught in a burn up on the front, but he's a non-runner.

Illustrious Prince may have won well last time, but he's hardly unexposed and this step up in class will see him face a much sterner test. He's too short for me, even for the placepot. Skytrain actually won a higher class (3) handicap last time, and steps down in grade here. He'll bid to make all, and has a very taking winning attitude (five wins in fourteen starts).

Broctune Papa Gio is interesting, and his form on good to soft or quicker over seven furlongs reads 23121. He'll sit in behind the pace and will be well placed to strike in what may be optimal conditions. I'll also include the well backed Creek Falcon.

A - 3 (Creek Falcon), 6 (Skytrain), 9 (Broctune Papa Gio)

Place your toteplacepot bets with totepool directly, using the link below:

totesport.com
Just A's - 2 x 1 x 2 x 1 x 1 x 3 = 12 bets

All picks - 5 x 3 x 2 x 3 x 1 x 3 = 270 bets

Ticket builder optimized perm - see below.

Leicester placepot picks

Leicester placepot picks

Readers can use the ticket builder at www.geegeez.co.uk/ppot/ to create their own part perms.

Place your toteplacepot bets with totepool directly, using the link below:

totesport.com

Your first 30 days for just £1
7 replies
  1. Martin says:

    Lets hope its not a case of deja vu with the NR today…Mandy the Nag a NR. Best of luck Martin.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Indeed, Martin. Hopefully some people will have taken another option for the same cost or, alternatively, halved the cost of the bet and got the prayer mat out for Reconsider Baby, much the most solid play in the race (a relative comment, rather than a fancy of mine!)

      Best,
      Matt

  2. Martin says:

    Only had reconsider baby…got the prayer mat out…and it worked. The ‘prayer mat’ great placepot system, Matt:-) Martin

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Yep, front two well clear. It’s looking like a small dividend with a ‘cert’ in the fifth leg. But we might get a result in the last, with any luck. Come on Broctune Papa Gio!!

      Matt

  3. Martin says:

    Should have kept the prayer mat out:-( Very unlucky to lose a placepot by a nose. Martin

Comments are closed.