Lucrative Portfolio (LAY) Review

Lucrative Portfolio Review

Lucrative Portfolio Review

Lucrative Portfolio (LAY) Review

Our review of LP's LAY Bets

As per Matt's introduction to Lucrative Portfolio, this is where we'll be reviewing the lay bets angle of the service.

Lucrative Portfolio, has been several years of testing, tweaking and live betting in the making. But what exactly is Lucrative Portfolio?

What IS Lucrative Portfolio?

When I first saw the sales page for this, I have to admit, I didn't especially like it. It certainly is not to my tastes, with its bold claims of generating more profit than the national average salary.

Now, let me be clear. I'm not suggesting those claims aren't true. On the contrary. It's just that, well, we've all read that sort of thing a hundred times before...

Anyway, I quizzed Michael a bit more on his portfolio, and he was good enough to share the following insight with me:

Each strategy involves a mechanised element i.e core system rules, alongside analysis of value which I've developed from an odds compilation method (I remember you've previously read my 'create your own odds' guide, which was a simplified version of this).

Since the place / lay strategies are now advised to be bet at Betfair SP, there's also an element involving looking at market moves / likely trends in order to find value at BSP.

So, in a nutshell, Michael starts with a set of 'rules', but then uses complex value judgement techniques to arrive at the final selections.

His previous track record suggests he's pretty good at this.

The service consists of a daily combination of win, place and lay selections - on average two to three per day - and members simply log in to the exclusive members' area from 9am on the day of racing to pick up the tips.

How has Lucrative Portfolio performed?

As you can see, Michael is a smart guy, and he has a proven track record with his earlier services. But how has Lucrative Portfolio performed up to now?

Since the start of 2014, the Portfolio has recorded 727 winners from 1,403 bets, a strike rate of just over 50%. That means there are no long losing runs, and so this might be ideal for those who can become unsettled by five or six bets without a winner.

At level stakes of £10 per bet, the Portfolio is claimed to have yielded £8,495 since the start of 2014, at a return on investment of 18.38%

Michael's personal modus operandi is compounded stakes - using a percentage of bank approach - and, adopting that strategy since inception would have converted in over 3,000 points profit!

A word of caution here: compounding with a successful service can quickly lead to quite large bets. So, while the headline figures are very sexy, it makes more sense in this kind of situation to take money out and, well, enjoy it!

It is also important to note that these are claimed results of a service that is new to the market as of now, so I cannot vouch for them. However, I know Michael well enough to be confident the numbers are as good as he says they are.

What is the deal with Lucrative Portfolio?

Lucrative Portfolio is a tipping service, delivered via a password-protected members' area. The tips are online by 9am each morning for the day's racing.

You can subscribe for your first month for just £7, which gives you plenty of time to get up to speed, have a look around, and see if this is for you.

After that, you can choose to subscribe quarterly or annually, with a hefty saving for the longer term subscription. As with all such services, long-term is the way to go in my opinion.

Today's bets are in the members' area now, and you can get read more/get involved here.

James Cross will now record/report the results from this service for the next 60 betting days, recording his results to a £10 level LIABILITY settled at Betfair SP, deducting 5% commission from all winning bets.

Chris Worrall

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LP (LAY) Review Results

LP (LAY) Day 1, 25/09/15

1.50 Worcester : Gus Macrae u/p at 9.35

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.14
Overall : 1/1 (100.00% SR) = +£1.14

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LP (LAY) Day 2, 26/09/15

5.35 Newmarket : Grand Inquisitor 3rd at 4.68

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.58
Overall : 2/2 (100.00% SR) = +£3.72

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LP (LAY) Day 3, 29/09/15

2.30 Sedgefield : Ardmay WON at 4.10

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 2/3 (66.67% SR) = -£6.28

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LP (LAY) Day 4, 30/09/15

3.10 Nottingham : Primitivo 2nd at 7.58

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.44
Overall : 3/4 (75.00% SR) = -£4.84

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LP (LAY) Day 5, 03/10/15

3.50 Fontwell : Top Cat Henry WON at 3.06

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 3/5 (60.00% SR) = -£14.84

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LP (LAY) Day 6, 05/10/15

3.05 Pontefract : Iconic u/p at 6.78
3.40 Pontefract : Mr Kite u/p at 4.90

Daily Result : 2/2 = +£3.99
Overall : 5/7 (71.43% SR) = -£10.85

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LP (LAY) Day 7, 06/10/15

5.10 Leicester : Merhoob 2nd at 4.25

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.92
Overall : 6/8 (75.00% SR) = -£7.93

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LP (LAY) Day 8, 07/10/15

5.15 Nottingham : Cornborough 3rd at 3.47

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£3.85
Overall : 7/9 (77.78% SR) = -£4.08

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LP (LAY) Day 9, 08/10/15

2.45 Ayr : Cheeky Angel WON at 8.00

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 7/10 (70.00% SR) = -£14.08

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LP (LAY) Day 10, 09/10/15

3.55 York : Arctic Feeling 4th at 10.5

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.00
Overall : 8/11 (72.73% SR) = -£13.08

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LP (LAY) Day 11. 10/10/15

4.0 York : Garcia WON at 12

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 8/12 (66.67% SR) = -£23.08

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LP (LAY) Day 12, 11/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 12, 12/10/15

3.10 Sedgefield : The Shropshire Lad u/p at 5.26

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.23
Overall : 9/13 (69.23% SR) = -£20.85

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LP (LAY) Day 13, 13/10/15

2.40 Huntingdon : Keychain u/p at 5

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.38
Overall : 10/14 (71.43% SR) = -£18.47

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LP (LAY) Day 14, 14/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 15, 15/10/15

2.20 Uttoxeter : Champagne Ransom u/p at 10.50

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.00
Overall : 11/15 (73.33% SR) = -£17.47

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LP (LAY) Day 16, 16/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 16, 17/10/15

2.05 Market Rasen : Raise A Spark u/p at 8.00
2.55 Stratford : Little Jon u/p at 5.84

Daily Result : 2/2 = +£3.32
Overall : 13/17 (76.47% SR) = -£14.15

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LP (LAY) Day 17, 19/10/15

5.30 Plumpton : Hortense Mancini u/p at 9.20

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.16
Overall : 14/18 (77.78% SR) = -£12.99

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LP (LAY) Day 18, 20/10/15

2.00 Lingfield : Weather Front 2nd at 2.83

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£5.19
Overall : 15/19 (78.95% SR) = -£7.80

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LP (LAY) Day 19, 21/10/15

4.45 Fontwell : Surging Seas u/p at 5.72

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.01
Overall : 16/20 (80.00% SR) = -£5.79

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LP (LAY) Day 20, 22/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 20, 23/10/15

5.15 Newbury : The New Pharaoh u/p at 9

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.19
Overall : 17/21 (80.95% SR) = -£4.60

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LP (LAY) Day 21, 24/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 21, 26/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 21, 27/10/15

2.50 Catterick : Grams And Ounces u/p at 3.68

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£3.54
Overall : 18/22 (81.82% SR) =-£0.92

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LP (LAY) Day 22, 28/10/15

3.30 Chelmsford : Goodnightsuzy 2nd at 4.23

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.94
Overall : 19/23 (82.61% SR) = +£2.02

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LP (LAY) Day 23, 29/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 23, 30/10/15

1.50 Uttoxeter : Lady Of Lamanver 2nd at 6.82

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.63
Overall : 20/24 (83.33% SR) = +£3.65

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LP (LAY) Day 24, 31/10/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 24, 2/11/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 24, 3/11/15

2.40 Southwell : North Spirit u/p at 6.00
3.40 Southwell : Northside Prince u/p at 9.00

Daily Result : 2/2 = +£3.09
Overall : 22/26  (84.62% SR) = +£6.74

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Your first 30 days for just £1

LP (LAY) Day 25, 4/11/15

2.50 Chepstow : The Gipper WON at 3.98

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 22/27 (81.48*% SR) = -£3.26

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LP (LAY) Day 26, 5/11/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 26, 6/11/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 27, 7/11/15

2.50 Kelso : Classinaglass u/p at 8.00
3.40 Aintree : Festive Affair u/p at 5.12

Daily Result : 2/2 = +£3.66
Overall : 24/29 (82.76% SR) = +£0.40

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LP (LAY) Day 27, 9/11/15

3,45 Southwell : Riddlestown 3rd at 16.83

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£0.60
Overall : 25/30 (83.33% SR) = +£1.00

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LP (LAY) Day 28, 10/11/15

2.30 Lingfield : Fred Le Macon 3rd at 14.5

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£0.70
Overall : 26/31 (83.87% SR) = +£1.70

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LP (LAY) Day 29. 11/11/15

1.50 Ayr : Tantamount 2nd at 3.65

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£3.58
Overall : 27/32 (84.38% SR) = +£5.28

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LP (LAY) Day 30, 12/11/15

2.20 Southwell : Crosse Fire u/p at 7.10

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.56
Overall : 28/33 (84.85% SR) = +£6.84

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LP (LAY) Day 31, 13/11/15

1.15 Hexham : Money For Nothing non runner.

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LP (LAY) Day 32, 14/11/15

2.15 Uttoxeter : Hillview Lad u/p at 8.41

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.28
Overall : 29/34 (85.29% SR) = +£8.12

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LP (LAY) Day 33, 16/11/15

1.45 Leicester : Bus Named Desire u/p at 9.60

Daily result : 1/1 = +£1.10
Overall : 30/35 (85.71% SR) = +£8.22

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LP (LAY) Day 34, 17/11/15

2.20 Lingfield : Ortac Rock u/p at 5.29

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.21
Overall : 31/36  (86.11% SR) = +£10.43

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LP (LAY) Day 35, 18/11/15

2.30 Chepstow : Smart Exit 2nd at 4.88

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.45
Overall : 32/37 (86.49% SR) = +£12.88

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LP (LAY) Day 36, 19/11/15

1.30 Market Rasen : Cloudy Bob u/p at 3.75
3.50 Lingfield : Well Painted u/p at 6.40
4.00 Wincanton : Ma'ire Rua u/p at 3.39

Daily Result : 3/3 = +£9.19
Overall : 35/40 (87.50% SR) = +£22.07

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LP (LAY) Day 37, 20/11/15

3.50 Ascot : Cloonacool u/p at 4.08

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£3.08
Overall : 36/41 (87.81% SR) = +£25.15

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LP (LAY) Day 38, 21/11/15

1.30 Ascot : Promanco u/p at 6.80

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.64
Overall : 37/42 (88.10% SR) = +26.79

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LP (LAY) Day 39, 23/11/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 39, 24/11/15

2.40 Southwell : Kellys Finest u/p at 9.2

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.16
Overall : 38/43 (88.37% SR) = +£28.95

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LP (LAY) Day 40, 25/11/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 40, 26/11/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 40, 27/11/15

2.30 Doncaster : Emperor Commodos 3rd at 9.00

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.19
Overall : 39/44 (88.64% SR) = +£30.14

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LP (LAY) Day 41, 28/11/15

1.00 Newcastle : Duelling Banjos u/p at 6.68
1.30 Newcastle : Bonzo Bing u/p at 5.75

Daily Result : 2/2 = +£3.67
Overall : 41/46 (89.13% SR) = +£33.81

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LP (LAY) Day 42, 30/11/15

1.25 Wolverhampton : Rock Of Monaco WON at 3.42

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 41/47  (87.23% SR) = +£23.81

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LP (LAY) Day 43, 01/12/15

3.40 Wolverhampton : Kadrizzi 2nd at 5.99

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.90
Overall : 42/48 (87.50% SR) = +£25.71

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LP (LAY) Day 44, 02/12/15

12.30 Lingfield : Thai Noon 3rd at 10.41
2.00 Lingfield : Lightscameraaction WON at 4.17

Daily Result : 1/2 = -£8.99
Overall : 43/50 (86.00% SR) = +£16.72

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LP (LAY) Day 45, 03/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 46, 04/12/15

2.30 Sedgefield : Mighty Whitey u/p at 10.50

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.00
Overall : 44/51 (86.27% SR) = +£17.72

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LP (LAY) Day 47, 05/12/15

1.20 Sandown : Doctor Harper u/p at 4.50

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£2.71
Overall : 45/52 (86.54% SR) = +£20.43

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LP (LAY) Day 48, 07/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 48, 08/12/15

2.30 Southwell : Ancient Cross 2nd at 5.90

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.94
Overall : 46/53 (86.79% SR) = +£22.37

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LP (LAY) Day 49, 09/12/15

2.35 Leicester : Didntitellya u/p at 9.80

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.08
Overall : 47/54 (87.04% SR) = +£23.45

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LP (LAY) Day 50, 10/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 50, 11/12/15

12.45 Doncaster : Unbuckled WON at 3.84

Daily Result : 0/1 = -£10.00
Overall : 47/55 (85.45% SR) = +£13.45

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LP (LAY) Day 51, 12/12/15

1.40 Southwell : Shipyard u/p at 7.00

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.58
Overall : 48/56 (85.71% SR) = +£15.03

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LP (LAY) Day 52, 14/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 52, 15/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 52, 16/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 52, 17/12/15

3.50 Exeter : Proud Times u/p at 9.40

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.13
Overall : 49/57 (85.96% SR) = +£16.16

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LP (LAY) Day 53, 18/12/15

No selections today

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LP (LAY) Day 53, 19/12/15

12.50 Newcastle : River Bollin u/p at 3.83

Daily Result 1/1 = +£3.36
Overall : 50/58 (86.21% SR) = +£19.52

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This service is taking a short break over the Xmas
period so there will be no further updates until
Monday 28/12/15.

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LP (LAY) Day 54, 28/12/15

12.25 Catterick : Bountiful Bess u/p at 12.71

Daily Result 1/1 = +£0.81
Overall : 51/59 (86.44% SR) = +£20.33

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LP (LAY) Day 55, 29/12/15

1.40 Southwell : Inshaa u/p at 3.22

Daily Result 1/1 = +£4.28
Overall : 52/60 (86.67% SR) = +£24.61

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LP (LAY) Day 56, 30/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 56, 31/12/15

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 56, 01/01/16

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 57, 02/01/16

12.50 Southwell : Lucky Mark 2nd at 9.93

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.06
Overall : 53/61 (86.89% SR) = +£25.67

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LP (LAY) Day 58, 04/01/16

1.35 Ludlow : Crazy Jack 2nd at 5.83
2.25 Musselburgh : Beer Goggles u/p at 9.21

Daily Result : 2/2 = +£3.13
Overall : 55/63 (87.30% SR) = +28.80

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LP (LAY) Day 59, 05/01/16

12.40 Southwell : Dazheeka u/p at 6.80

Daily Result : 1/1 = +£1.64
Overall : 56/64 (87.50% SR) = +£30.44

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LP (LAY) Day 60. 06/01/16

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 60. 07/01/16

No selections today.

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LP (LAY) Day 60, 08/01/16

1.35 Lingfield : Kubeba non runner

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This service is part of a package from Lucrative Trust, with win and place selections also provided and being reviewed separately and concurrently. Those reviews have already been completed and can be seen here; http://www.geegeez.co.uk/lucrative-portfolio-win-review/

The selections are displayed in the members part of the website and are available around 9 am each morning, although there are no selections on Sundays. All bets are recommended at Betfair SP.

Overall I think the results have been satisfactory with 56 of the 64 lays being successful (87.5% SR). Laying each to lose £10 returns a total profit of £30.44 which is an ROI of 4.75% on the total liability. The nature of laying makes it difficult to achieve a high ROI unless the service a very high strike rate and I personally consider a return of 4.75% to be acceptable for a laying service. However the full results for this service displayed on the website show an ROI of 7.70% so the service has not quite managed to live up to historical results during the trial.

The suggested staking from Lucrative Racing Trust is 6% of the bankroll.  In order to lay to £10 on each selection  a bankroll of £166.67 would be required. I tested the results of the trial period using this staking plan and it actually showed a slightly reduced profit of £29.44 from a higher overall liability of £662.79 (compared to £640 at level stakes) resulting in a lower overall ROI of 4.44%. The staking on the next selection at the end of the trial period would now be £11.77 instead of £10.

Laying is not for everyone of course and some may baulk at laying horses at big prices. Eight of the selections were returned at a Betfair SP in double figures, with the highest priced at 16.83. The highest priced winner was 12.00. If that sounds a little offputting for some I should point out that the bigger priced selections were more profitable than the shorter ones in the trial period.

There were 15 selections returned at 4.17 and below of which 6 won. Laying those alone would have resulted in a loss of £25.68. Laying the 49 selections at bigger than  4.17 would have returned a profit of £56.12, with only 2 of the lays managing to win, resulting in an ROI of 11.45%. This is from a small trial sample so I am not suggesting that this is the right approach to take but it is an interesting result and food for thought for anyone who is completely against laying at bigger prices. As with all betting or laying approaches, the long term results will be determined by whether you are getting a better price than the true odds of the selection, and the decision on laying at chunky prices really comes down to individuals preferences.

I have consistently quoted ROI throughout this review but I feel that ROC (Return on Capital) is just as important a measure for a laying service in particular. The high strike rate means that it is possible to make a decent return on your overall bankroll (even with a low ROI) as you can stake a greater percentage of your bankroll on each selection than from a backing service with a lower strike rate. With a profit of £30.44 and an assumed bankroll of £166.67, the ROC for this trial is 18.26% over a period of just over 3 months.  That's much better than you would get from your bank and if results were replicated in the future you are looking at an annual ROC of around 70%. Put another way you would double your bankroll in less than 18 months.

Overall I think the laying service selections are worth following and sit well with the win selections from this service. The win bets staking is suggested as 2% of the bankroll and the strike rate is low, but the ROI very high. Combining them with the lay selections should help smooth the returns and reduce the downswings.

The trial of the lay service was satisfactory rather than spectacular, however, and on its own its questionable whether I would have reccomended subscribing. I would rate it 3 out of 5, maybe 3 1/2. However a subscription gets you access to the win, place and lay selections and I have already strongly reccommended the win selections. In my view it would be prudent to follow both the win and lay selections from this service.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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