PLUMPTON – MARCH 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,354.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Solighoster) & 1 (Fountains Windfall)
Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Remember Forever), 3 (Clonusker) & 1 (Brice Canyon)
Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Rude And Crude), 1 (Starkie) & 2 (Un Anjou)
Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Midnight Tune), 5 (Jebs Gamble) & 3 (Oscar Jane)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Top And Drop) & 1 (Hope’s Wishes)
Leg 6 (4.40): 2 (Finish The Story) & 4 (Royals And Rebels)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Nine of the last twelve winners have been sent off at a top price of 11/4 (see further stats below). Five and six-year-olds have (equally) shared six recent renewals and with none of the relevant older representatives having been declared, five-year-old SOLIGHOSTER might overcome FOUNTAINS WINDFALL in what amounts to a ‘match’, especially if the relevant claimer can call on all seven pounds of his allowance.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 16 favourites have won, though four of the other seven market leaders finished out of the frame in races won by horses sent off at 33/1 (twice)--20/1--8/1--5/1—11/4--13/8.
2.30: Seven-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals and with REMEMBER FOREVER being this year’s lone vintage representative, Richard Rowe’s raider is the first name on the team sheet. I’ve seen 8/1 on offer in a place or two overnight which makes for half decent each way reading from my viewpoint. Readers might consider the soft ground course and distance winner CLONUSKER a more logical winner, arguably alongside BRICE CANYON.
Favourite factor: 21 of the last 23 available toteplacepot positions have been claimed by horses starting at 8/1 or less (four winning favourites). Three of the other seven market leaders secured additional toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/12—Clonlusker (soft & heavy)
1/6—Frank N Fair (good)
3.05: Ten of the last eleven winners have been returned at a top price of 11/2 whilst seven of the eight most recent gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 11-4. The claimer aboard Edgar effectively eliminates the seven-year-old via the weight stats, leaving RUDE AND CRUDE, STARKIE and UN ANJOU to represent yours truly in this ‘win only’ contest. The trio is offered in marginal order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Six of the 11 favourites (three winners) have claimed toteplacepot positions to date.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/3—Rude And Crude (heavy)
3.40: Six-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests, even though vintage representatives were conspicuous by their absence five years ago, notwithstanding last year’s lone contender havening been returned at 20/1 when finishing down the field. This year's relevant entries are MIDNIGHT TUNE and JEBS GAMBLE. Johnny Farrelly secured a 31/1 double with his only two runners on Saturday, with OSCAR JANE being his first subsequent declaration.
Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged via the last twelve renewals (the market leader was withdrawn two years ago) during which time, the other winners were returned at 33/1--11/1--8/1--6/1--6/1----9/2--4/1--4/1--7/2--7/2. Just three of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1—Midnight Tune (soft)
1/1—Minella Gathering (heavy)
1/5—Bostin (good to firm)
4.10: This handicap hurdle is confined to mares which is not conducive to creating a ‘bank’ for the Cheltenham Festival in principle though that said, four of the six favourites have obliged, whilst the 2013 market leader was beaten by the minimum margin. Six-year-olds have won three of the last five contests whereby TOP AND DROP confirms her status as being the selection, a decision which had been made before looking up the facts and stats. HOPE’S WISHES returns to defend her crown, with Barry Brennan’s Kayf Tara mare given the nod as the main threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: All four favourites had claimed tote placepositions via three gold medals and one of the silver variety before the 2015 (5/4) favourite was sunk without trace. Last year’s race reverted to type when the 11/4 market leader prevailed.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Hope’s Wishes (soft)
4.45: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 4-3 via the last eleven renewals during the last twelve years in this toteplacepot finale. Indeed, seven-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests whereby ROYALS AND REBELS might prove to be the main danger to FINISH THE STORY (Johnny Farrelly’s second (last) runner on the card), having given the trainer a big build up to his raider in the fourth race on the Plumpton programme.
Favourite factor: 27 of the 29 horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date started at 9/1 or less. Five of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/10—Itoldyou (good & soft)
2/13—Venetian Lad (2 x good)
2/18—Goring Two (soft & heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Linda Jewell (2/18 – Profit of 12 points)
4—Daniel O’Brien (0/7)
3—Chris Gordon (3/18 – loss of 3 points)
3—Anthony Honeyball (4/11 – Profit 0f 2 points)
3—Richard Rowe (1/14 – loss of 9 points)
2—Alexandra Dunn (0/1)
2—Johnny Farrelly (3/9 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Diana Grissell (0/19)
2—Gary Moore (10/52 – loss of 1 point)
2—Neil Mulholland (2/20 – loss of 12 points)
2—Anna Newton-Smith (0/13)
2—Martin Smith (0/1)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow (contested on the Saturday last year): £1,827.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced
Chelmsford (contested on the previous Thursday last year): £57.00 – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced