Lies, damn lies, and statistics. That, dear reader, is the trade I ply and, whilst I try to major in the latter (i.e. statistics), sometimes it is a challenge to separate the former...
So it is that a new - and very interesting - little piece of software I have for analysing draw biases tells me a fascinating fact about Warwick's six furlong course. Apparently, in the TEN years to last year, there has only been one 6f winner drawn in double figures. 94 have tried!
I tell you this, lest you were considering parting with your hard earned on any of the following in the opening 1.40 race:
- Back In The Red, Racing Post's 4/1 favourite, and drawn 10 of 17 (box 10 is 0 from 20)
- Brandywell Boy, 6/1 3rd best in RP, and drawn a presumably hopeless 15 (1 from 6)
- Music Box Express, 7/1 in RP tissue, and drawn 12 (0 from 17)
- Namu, forecast 12/1 and drawn 13 (0 from 14)
I don't (yet) have the data for this season (and, to be honest, haven't got time to look), but it's hard to take a wager for the above seriously in the context of this information. If you're of the laying persuasion, your mission is stated.
If, however, you like to back not lay, then let's use these eliminated elements to attempt to whittle down the field.
The 1 box has been the winning starting gate for 7 of 30 runners to occupy it, and shows a very tidy level stakes profit (LSP) of 36.5o. Today's incumbent is Belle Bellino, a winner last time out, and ridden by none other than the champ, Ryan Moore. It could be as easy as that...
Yungaburra in stall 2 is let loose again just 48 hours after getting royally rolled over, and a quick squint at his profile reveals five wins, all over the minimum at Wolverhampton. Strike out.
The 3 box has possibly the most interesting runner (and possibly a dog that has given up at the game, ahem) in Inka Dancer. The Inka hasn't won for a long time, but she has won over the trip and on the ground, and she's won off a rating of about the same mark she bears here. She's quoted at 40/1 and stranger things have happened.
So, there you go: the paper favourite can't win; Belle Bellino for Ryan Moore can win and may well do so; and Inka Dancer could be the biggest priced winner publicly selected by yours truly since the 50/1 shot in the last race at the Cheltenham Festival (remember Silver Jaro anyone? Leave a comment at the end of this post if you backed it that day!!).
Today is the last day of September, so likely payday for many of you. Those of you tracking TTS with real money this month (naughty, naughty: you should have been paper trading!) will have had numerous paydays, as the profit graph now shows up at +£541 to £20 stakes and with the usual Betfair assumption of 16% over SP and 4% commission on winning wagers.
In fact, it's over £408 up to old-fashioned SP, if anyone still uses that..!
So, for those of you who signed up for £1 and subsequently canceled, and are now identifying the selections for yourselves, you must be delighted to have secured what is presumably the best value horse racing system ever (he says, trying to affect a modicum of modesty... and failing patently).
For those who have stayed aboard in order to save the hassles of picking the runners yourself each day, I hope you agree that your monthly investment is tremendous value. If you disagree, you know what to do! (In case you don't, you just go to PayPal and unsubscribe!)
Football Loophole made its debut on the weekend, and a mixed bag of results was the order of the day. The over / under 2.5 goals bets did quite well, and one of the home wins collected (Reading thumping Swansea 4-0) too.
But much of the good work was undone by Middlesboro slipping up at home to West Brom.
Still, as I said before, there is a lot of good sense in this guide, and I will continue to track its progress as I suspect it will do quite nicely in the long run. The sales page is here, should you wish to have a glance for yourself.
Finally, today is the last day of the Winners To Losers trial. To date, the system has identified 14 losers from 16 runners. However, the two winners were both quite plump prices, resulting in an overall loss of three points to date.
There's one in the 4.20 Southwell today, and there's also one in the 1.40 Warwick.
You can see performance for yourself here. I'll post a fuller review of W2L later in the week.
Incidentally, from the same 'stable' as W2L is TAPS (The Alternative Punters Syndicate), which offers a free month trial. They had a happy Saturday, with the following advices sent out to their members:
Those that took the early 10's and 14's would have been in clover. You can sign up for your free trial here. It's free, there's no catch, so enjoy... :0)
Finally finally, you can't help but notice that there is a 'sign up' box below this post. You will get used to this going forwards, as it will be appended in what I hope you agree is a relatively unobtrusive fashion (after the day's Bisogno bluster).
It's purpose is obvious:
I would like more people to read my guff.
I would like more people to back the winners that we back (and, I suppose, the losers we back too).
I would like more people to understand the good ways and the bad ways of finding winners, or at least to understand my interpretation of that.
And, yes, I would like more people to read the reviews of racing systems I post here and - only if they're interested and the product is any good - to consider buying through my sales link.
I hope that's ok with you. :o)