Monday Mish Mash: Stalemates

Stalemate weekend

Stalemate weekend

One way and another it was a weekend of little to no movement. Be that on the Ayr trainers, baby, or Stat of the Day selection front. Let me explain further...

Friday's blog content saw, amongst other things, a Stat of the Day pick for a 20/1 shot and some trainers to follow at Ayr's Western meeting.

The Stat of the Day pick, Emkanaat, saw solid and sustained support all day before being sent off at 7/1. It won, to the delight of followers of that feature, old and new.

In the interests of transparency, I should add that there was a 10% rule 4 deduction, but still it was an 18/1 winner.

Stat of the Day is now 21.55 pts up for September (the big winner was advised each way so 'only' recorded eleven or so points profit), and an incredible 123 points up since we started it last November.

It's free, and is only one horse a day. I wonder if any other free services can compete with that. If you're not following it already, you can bookmark http://www.geegeez.co.uk/category/horse-racing-blog/daily-stat-of-the-day/.

Alternatively, if you follow me on Twitter - @mattbisogno - you'll get a 'tweet' when the latest posts have been published, including Stat of the Day.

**

The other contribution on Friday was for a quintet of trainers to follow at the Ayr Western meeting. The five collectively saddled 44 horses which fulfilled the criteria (20/1 or shorter, six years old or younger), and notched four winners, including Ayr Gold Cup scorer, Captain Ramius.

Those four winners were enough to reduce the deficit to five and a half points. Betfair SP recorded a negligible loss of 0.42 points.

The frustrating thing for me, and I appreciate this is after-timing, is that I originally had six trainers, and the sixth was Michael Dods. Dods had a winner at 16/1 (Mass Rally in the Ayr Silver Cup) from just five runners in the age/odds bracket, which would have turned that small loss into a small profit.

[Dods also won with Osteopathic Remedy but, at eight years young, he'd have been too 'experienced' for consideration].

All told, it was a frustrating Ayr meeting for me personally, and the above contains most of the reasons why.

I also again failed to include Mary's Daughter in my placepot perms. After costing me a four figure sum at York, despite me backing her to win, this time it was a respectable three figure sum which went west at the Western meeting as she ran up to Melody Of Love in the Listed fillies race. Bugger.

In case you didn't know, Mrs Matt is Mary's daughter. Sometimes I wish there was a slightly bigger place for sentiment in my wagering..!

**

Onwards, and after Chris's magnificent week in the Stat of the Day chair, I took over yesterday for a 'guest appearance'.

I'd found a horse Saturday night which I thought was massively over-priced and had a real chance if running to his best level. Well, I was half right.

The horse, Bachelor Affair, opened at 28/1 in the morning, and I grabbed some of that. It was then progressively backed at all rates down to half its opening morning show.

On course, Bachelor Affair opened 11/1 and drifted a point to 12's at the off. Alas, that was as exciting as it got. A confirmed front runner, our boy couldn't get the lead, sulked, dropped back through the pack, and eventually pulled up.

Despite murdering the market, this one got away. But I'll always be happy to get 28/1 about 12/1 shots, as over time it is nigh on impossible to lose when getting such value from the early market.

Incidentally, the only other horse mentioned in yesterday's Stat of the Day, Norther Bay, won the race at 12/1. Hmm.

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Chris is back in the chair today, so perhaps we'll be back to winning ways.

**

To today's racing, and I've been out and about this morning already. I caught up with the wonderful Tony Stafford, author of our Sunday Supplement and racing manager to Raymond Tooth, as well as owner of a least a squillion engaging racing anecdotes.

In a conversation that took in 'Pippy' (wealthy Indian who owned horses in the 70's and 80's, I think); Nicolas Clement, the French trainer; Brian Meehan; David Manasseh (and his dad, Maurice, who was phoned during the chat); Anthony Honeyball; Kieren Fallon; Arsenal; Rory McIlroy; The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo; and, eggs and bacon... Tony also mentioned the name of a horse which might go well this afternoon.

Mississippee hacked up on his first try on the Kempton all weather back in late April, but has been various shades of disappointing since, including most recently when returned to the Kempton poly.

Since that last run, he has been working very well, and I'm told he worked upsides a decent horse at Brian Meehan's last week. Consequently, they're hopeful that he might get his nose back in front this afternoon in the 5.50 race.

This is not the way I bet usually, preferring a more holistic perspective on the form in the race. But I'll be watching this fellow with interest.

**

Next, and I'm pleased to say that places in the National Hunt syndicate have all been taken, and that our search for a horse is underway.

With the jumps season just starting up now, this is an exciting time for us, and we await options on a horse to 'go to war' with.

One other thing I'm still awaiting, is the arrival of Matt Jr. So far, he's decided it's far more cosy and warm where he is, and he has demonstrated little desire to make a break for it.

Due date came and went on Friday, and we're still on tenterhooks. Poor Mrs Matt is growing weary to the daily regimen of preparing herself for the big day, only for a whole load of nothing to manifest itself.

One thing is for sure: with each day which passes, the arrival becomes ever more imminent. Maybe today or tomorrow... (For information, my guess has always been the 27th September, so if the little mite can hang fire until Thursday, I'll be right for perhaps the first time ever in our relationship!!! 😉

**

And finally in this rapid-fire Monday Mish Mash, I have a question for you about the sort of content you'd like to see on geegeez in the future.

Basically, I want to know if you're more interested in tipping content, or more instructive 'how to bet' type content. Or maybe a bit of both.

Here's the question:

[poll id="46"]

Thanks in advance for your answer, which will help shape what comes next here on your number one independent UK racing site.

Also, feel free to leave a comment and share the highs and lows of your own weekend's punting. It can't have been any more stale than mine...

Matt

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18 replies
  1. Jim says:

    I thought Mary’s Daughter ran well on Saturday but I missed it altogether – not enough time to study. Still she doesn’t owe me anything after York.

    Unlike the real daughters…..

    Hope Mrs keeps smiling – he’ll come when he’s ready – get the sleep while she can.

    Jim

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Cheers Jim – much appreciated. Will keep you posted! Bring coffee and biscuits when you visit. 😉

      Matt

  2. Josh W says:

    Great post as ever Matt,
    lets hope we find that go to war horse and at least win a few battles!

    I have cast my vote – ‘both but more how to bet’. i personally wouldn’t like to see the site descend into a tipping service. stat of the day and big race meeting analysis with tips and more importantly rationale is good for me. but from the results so far, more tipping seems to be what the readership want – with your results I can see why!

    however, although I have a portfolio of systems, the satisfaction of picking out a winner as a result of your own research cannot be matched…hence why more how to bet info would be great!

    Josh

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Josh – yes, that’s pretty much how I feel about it too. And there will always be a balance on the site. The challenge is trying to get the balance right, and that’s decided by you, the readers, not me and the writers!

      Thanks to all for taking a moment to answer that little question.

      Matt

  3. Bob says:

    all the best for this week Matt ,sounds like junior will make a show. You obviously married Mrs Right ,(like myself ) Yeah, shes always right!!!!

  4. Ian says:

    Hi Matt for me it is all about gathering stable information about their horses….I am good at doing the rest…..with the jumps season just starting I would love more jumps stable tour reports like the one you did recently on Anthony Honeyball or some stable dark horses to follow through the season from the trainers themselves.

  5. Mark J says:

    Although Matt Jnr may be a little slow down to the post, he’ll fly out of the stalls when he’s ready and give you and Mrs Matt a fine run for your money! Enjoy the peace whilst it lasts Matt and thanks for the update above. Looking forward to hearing news about our syndicate horse.

    Mark J

  6. Terry says:

    I have just joined and have found this article/ thought provoking and look forward to the next one……I am not a favorite backer but tend to looke for value for money in each way betting……I also like my footie bets ( albeit I got stuffed by a 90th minute equaliser by Harlepool on Saturday to spoil my Fulham & Shrewsbury double)…..that’s life eh!!

  7. paul says:

    hi do you know any good staking plans for laying horses i get around 65 % wins but doing level stakes betting is not working ty

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Paul

      One of the simplest questions I’ve ever had to answer, though you probably won’t like the answer.

      If you can’t make it pay at level stakes, no staking plan will help you. Period.

      A staking plan can optimize the results of a winning approach, but a losing approach is a losing approach. No argument brooked.

      Best,
      Matt

  8. Keith Williams says:

    Hi Matt.

    Had good day Friday took a chance on Osteopathic Remedy as he has form on heavy and also having noted that Marcus Tregoning was creeping back in form took a punt on Valais girl. Both obliged at 9/1. Friday also managed a three timer with Roger Varians Havin’ a Good Time/Emkanaat & Afraah which returned a 132/1 treble, great stuff. Weeks highlight was the 18/1 winner of the Cpt. Ramius. All in all a profitable week. I live in Spain so am going to treat myself to a visit to Fontwell next month to have a look at their new 6 million pound stand and hopefully return a few quid better off.

    Your posts are always excellent, Like Josh W would not wish the site to degenerate into a tipping only one I think you have the mix just right. Best wishes.

    Keith.

  9. Wilson McKnight says:

    Was on both Bachelor Affair and Norther Bay on Saturday, so thanks to SOTD for that one. I enjoy reading all articles on the site and have followed your GGs writings etc for three or four years now. Good luck re the arrival of your imminent bundle.

    Wilson

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      I’m not a bookie, and I wouldn’t want to take a bet on it. So… 4/6? 😉

      Matt

  10. Ian Hughes says:

    Hi Matt,
    Kept my discipline with the info on the Meehan horse(see, I’m learning…!) and left it alone tho the winner must of came close to being a SOTD…? Figures of 1511 in C&D Class 4 Handicaps…
    Regards
    Ian….

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Well done Ian. Yes, I left it alone too, more on the grounds that Monday racing is just awful.

      Alas, I did get drawn into the Ballinrobe jackpot this evening… and drawn back out of it very quickly. 🙁

      Matt

  11. Paul Whitworth says:

    I agree with Josh (from a bit earlier) – my goal is to make my own selections and make some pocket money from doing so.
    Good luck with ‘Baby Bisogno’! (I have fairly recently experienced the waiting game – my first grandson was a bit late. I won’t say by how much, because you probably don’t want to think about the possibility for yourself and Mrs Matt. The ‘delay’ will soon be forgotten anyway.)

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