In previous articles we have covered the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Wisdom of the Crowd, and how these theories help us identify opportunities that have a positive Expected Value (EV+), writes Russell Clarke. Our task as punters is to try and limit our individual bets to those that have an EV+.
We can do this by opening new accounts with bookmakers when they are offering EV+ bets as an opening offer. We can do this by taking advantage of reload/ongoing offers from bookmakers. We can also hunt for EV+ Price Boosts. We can bet each-way in races where the fractions and extra places are in our favour. And, we must always take the best prices available and utilise Best Odds Guaranteed where possible.
In addition, we have identified the ‘sweet spot’ in terms of when to place our bets, which is when BOG is available, margins are not too severe, and there is a degree of liquidity in the market.
Finally, we have recognised and prepared ourselves for the variance that occurs even within a large series of EV+ bets. Psychologically we are prepared for adverse sequences and this knowledge gives us the confidence to carry a plan through.
That's all great in theory, but what about the practice?
Every individual will have a preference for how they like to bet and a tolerance for risk/reward. What follows is a framework that readers may elect to build upon and adapt to suit their own style and situation.
1 Take Advantage of Opening Offers… Smartly!
To keep up to date on such offers matched betting sites are useful. Most charge a subscription but there are free sites on social media (try searching Matched Betting on Facebook).
There are scores of bookmakers and each can be seen as a potential profit centre. You should try and wait for the most generous offers. These will often be prior to major sporting events, but can be at any time.
The ultimate goal is to open accounts with all of them. This will give you maximum profits from the opening offers but also keep your options open for the other concessions.
2 Keep abreast of reload/ongoing offers and weekly bet clubs (as these are essentially ‘free’ bets)
Again, the Matched Betting sites are useful for these. The largest one on facebook seems very busy and people post the latest offers and experiences.
3 Resolve only to bet in EV+ situations
Potential bets should be either the majority of the below or a combination of at least two or more of:
- Price Boost
- Enhanced Place each-way
- Best Odds Guaranteed
- Best price available
- Opening Offer
- Ongoing Offers (free bets)
4 Always be on the lookout for Multiples
If you find two EV+ bets with the same bookmaker, then placing a double simply multiplies your EV. For example, if you have two horses and one represents an EV of 1.15 and the other 1.20, then the double has an EV of 1.38. The same calculation can be done for trebles and above. Clearly the strike-rate falls with this type of bet, but the EV+ is enhanced.
5 Accept ‘variance’ for what it is, and stick as closely to these rules as you can for the vast majority of your bets
I hope you have enjoyed this series of articles and picked up at least a small amount of knowledge that will enhance profits or at least reduce losses. The closer you stick to these rules, the more you will have shifted the mathematics in your favour.
And we've achieved all of this without even touching upon any selection methods!
That is for another series, perhaps "Using Geegeez to Unearth EV+"… Matt?!
In case you missed any of this brilliant series, below is a recap of the previous seven chapters: