Narrowing The Field Review

FOR AN UPDATED REVIEW OF THE 2013/14 SERVICE, CLICK HERE

As many of you will have noticed, this part of the season is a busy one. Not only because of the beaks, buffoons and brats who are bumbling and stropping their way through the introduction of new whip use legislation, but also because of various new products and services which hail the arrival of the new jumps season proper.

Obviously, I only ever mention those products and services which I believe will benefit you (as long as they fit in with your personal style of betting). My own favoured approach is primarily stats-based, as a means of whittling down racing to a viable subset of contenders; and then often trainer- and occasionally form-based thereafter.

It's worked well for me, and continues so to do, which is why I love many of the products that emerge at this time. One that I wanted to mention last week but couldn't was Ben Aitken's Narrowing The Field (NTF) service. It's quite hard to pigeonhole the service, actually.

In fact, you might have downloaded some of the freebies that Ben had put together from an email I sent you a couple of weeks ago.

Whilst ostensibly NTF is a dosage profiling tool - dosage being a surprisingly effective measure of a horse's likely stamina based on several generations of breeding - there is much more to it than that.

Narrowing The Field

Narrowing The Field - does just that!

Ben also looks at trends on his key races, and likely run style, and a few other elements, before pulling it all together and offering a 'tip' in the summary at the end.

In fact, it's easier for me to show you than to tell you. So you can download this season's first report here.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Unfortunately, this wasn't a great dosage profile race. Fortunately, Ben has a way of measuring that, and added greater weight elsewhere this time, leading him to a strong fancy for the winner in his summing up.

He reckons the next nine races on his schedule are all robust dosage races, so we should get a better feel as things move forward.

Ben is a published author, and I believe this is now the third season of his Narrowing The Field service, the first only being available in bookshop print.

Comments on his latest offering have been unsurprisingly glowing, such as Terry, who said:

Hi Ben

Great start, the selection was a class or two above anything else in the race or is that a dosage or two!? Anyway, your method certainly highlights some significant ingredients that I for one have not been using in my own selection process.

Cheers – Terry

And that I think is the key facet to NTF. I would never have the time, nor probably the inclination, to go through that information. But that doesn't mean I'm not interested in it. I am.

And you might be too.

Now you've probably read from quite a few of the likelier suspects in recent days about this. Ben is well regarded, and the 'right people' have been promoting his latest service for obvious reasons.

The service comprises the following:

  • In-depth race analysis for around 145 of the major races in the 2011/12 National Hunt season (including all major festivals)
  • Detailed 90+ day NTF trainer guides for each month of the service
  • NTF Stat-Attack guides for a number of the major meetings
  • National Hunt sire analysis guides
  • Jockey and Trainer analysis guides
  • NTF Trend horses
  • Other exclusive NTF angles, analysis and guides throughout the season

 

That's quite a lot of kit, and will certainly help to keep you entertained/informed throughout the winter and spring.

I thoroughly recommend Ben's Narrowing The Field, and am already a subscriber. It's one of a handful of products that I consider indispensable for the Winter game.

Ben says he's about to draw stumps on his offer, which is why I'm telling you about it on a Monday (of all days). Because I do feel this is the type of info that sets the clued-up punter apart from 'the rest'. In a nutshell, this is info that is not in the public domain, and so it gives its users an extra edge.

Obviously Ben doesn't pick every winner, and nor will his dosage profiling. But it finds some lovely value plays, like

13/11/10 MIDNIGHT CHASE 8/1 (9.99 BFSP)
30/12/10 REALT DUBH 10/1 (13.61 BFSP)
09/01/11 FINAL APPROACH 6/1 (16/1 when advised in email sent out the evening before, before Pricewise got his hands on it)
29/01/11 NEPTUNE COLLONGES 11/2 (11-1 when advised in email sent out the evening before)
20/02/11 SILVER BY NATURE 10/1 (13 BFSP)
16/03/11 SIZING EUROPE 10/1 (13 BFSP)
23/04/11 POKER DE SIVOLA 11/1 (13.03 BFSP)

If you like to bet in the big races over the jumps, Narrowing The Field is a fine weapon to have in the arsenal and, like I say, I heartily recommend it.

Get Narrowing The Field here.

Matt

Your first 30 days for just £1
10 replies
  1. Chris
    Chris says:

    Hi Matt,
    Have a look at 4.10 at Redcar I’ve been looking at “think” the me what you think? Can’t remember who told me about it but I’ve been watching and I’m thinking today is his day. Long shot and half.

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Chris

      Don’t know if you know but I have a small interest in Think. He didn’t like the ground and will get a handicap mark after this. He might have a little race in him over a bit further (started out as a bumper horse) so we’ll see. Definitely better than he showed today, in any case.

      Matt

  2. Mondo Ray
    Mondo Ray says:

    I was wondering if you have commented in the past on Ross Newton’s “Tail End System” which I have been using successfully for a number of years now, modifying it as I go. I ask the question with reference to today’s Narrowing The Field offer, viz, are they compatable?

    Keep up the good work!

    Mondo

  3. ColinB
    ColinB says:

    I went into “Dosage” in great depth last year, saw the merit but did not have the patience to run it.
    That someone else is doing that hard work sound great as do the results you show, and while not knowing yet the strike rate, it looks as though early betting with trading may well be profitable.

    Thanks for the advice of this product

    Colin

  4. bob
    bob says:

    hi i joined the dirty dozen and paid by paypal £ 19.99 but have nothing in my e mail. I am eager to get my goods i paid for can u halp please most urgently thanks bob

    • tony
      tony says:

      Hallo mate. Hope you have not been caughtby the con men. 5 weeks ago I took a free trial of Mark Winstanley Phone Service. Did have a few winners – he then asked for £100. Like a mug I sent. Had no reply. I have now found out that the address was a Mailbox in Horsham, and is now boarded up. I did trust him, he has a column in Racing post, appears on Ch.4. and on William Hill screens. WHO CAN YOU TRUST ?

      • Matt Bisogno
        Matt Bisogno says:

        You can trust geegeez, Tony. We’ll keep you right. Sorry to hear about the conmen, who I suspect were using the Couch’s name without his permission.

        Matt

  5. Liam
    Liam says:

    Towcester is my Local course. I am keeping my Powder dry for the 26th November Any tips about the course that I could use would be most Welcome? I am heavy into doing my own spread sheet at the moment. I think stats is the way to go and Data basis too for that matter.

    I have had some very good results with the free… Spread sheet From Puntology. I would have taken an interest in Dosage but you can only pay for so many systems before you run out of ready cash to bet with. But good luck to all who have given it a chance.

  6. Dan
    Dan says:

    Hi Matt,
    I bought the NTF product last year and I have to say it was a colossal waste of money. All the data in the book is listed on pedigreequery.com and takes little time to find, whilst Ben Aitken’s analysis of the data is so statistically unsound as to qualify as a flagrant abuse of statistics.

    It is full of Type-1 errors, which, for those who don’t have a stats background, means to assume that a pattern exists when really there is none. He also draws conclusions from very small sample sizes, such as saying that there are already trends for the Ryanair, when there had only been six renewals at the time of writing, or – my personal favourite – that Inglis Drever and Denman didn’t win the Neptune, so horses like First Lieutenant with similar dosage profiles would also fail to win it. Aitken makes other statistical errors too, including with his so-called “extended trends analysis” but I have neither the time nor the inclination to continue to list them here.

    Using dosage to handicap National Hunt races can be done, but it requires a far more thoroughgoing approach to statistics than Ben Aitken demonstrates in this service.

    PS I lost the final shred of respect I had for this service when it tipped Grands Crus to win the World Hurdle, thus missing the incredible betting opportunity of backing Big Buck’s at Evens. This is arguably the best stayer since Arkle – he beat Kauto Star and Denman on the gallops when they were in their prime, and realistically should have been about 1/5.

    • Matt Bisogno
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Dan

      Very interesting remarks.

      One of the problem with inferring from data with a mind to profiting from horse racing is that ultimately the inferences are subjective. It is a commercial necessity sometimes to draw conclusions from small sample sizes, as punters demand selections. NTF quantifies the strength of the value of trends/dosage race by race, which I think is a fine initiative.

      Moreover, it is sometimes important to take a small leap of faith with the numbers in order to remain ahead of the punting pack.

      In summary, I don’t believe Ben would argue with a statistician, but he would, I’m sure, reserve the right to make subjective inferences from the data and, ultimately, a profit on the season.

      Of course, Ben is perfectly capable of defending himself, but those are my thoughts.

      Best,
      Matt

      p.s. Big Buck’s… yes, best staying hurdler but if they EVER point him at a Graded fence again I’ll lay the life out of him. Can’t jump the big’uns, won’t jump the big’uns! 😉

Comments are closed.