Newmarket 1000 Guineas 2010 Preview

On Sunday it’s the turn of the girls, dear reader, as the three year old fillies prove that pay inequality has been around since the dawn of time (or horse racing at least), and take their chances in the 1000 Guineas over the same Rowley mile trip.

There is no such Irish domination here, with just two winners since 1994. Again, though, the market proves informative, with last year’s winner Ghanaati (20/1) being the only one of the last eleven winners priced at longer than 14/1, and all of them being in the first seven in the betting.

Proven class is an almost omnipresent prerequisite for Guineas aspirants. Whilst Ghanaati was something of a ‘bomb’ last year, prior to that every one of the previous twelve winners had won or been second in a Group race.

Once raced fillies struggle, and all of the last thirteen winners had two juvenile starts or more. There are a number of single form figure animals hovering around the 16/1 – 20/1 mark and I’d steer clear of all of them on grounds of inexperience.

Seven of the last eight winners finished in the first two on each of their previous two starts, and again it is Ghanaati that is the odd one out, having finished third on debut before winning her only other start.

Interestingly, two of the first three in the ante-post lists – Special Duty and Seta – finished third last time out, giving them something to find, according to recent history at least.

With there being few top class two year old races over the mile distance, it is not really surprising that ten of the last eleven winners were winning at the Classic trip for the first time.

Although Music Show ticks all the boxes, it is quite hard on the face of it to see a dual Bath winner grabbing this fancy prize. However, there may be very few alternatives.

Next in the market is Marcus Tregoning’s Rumoush, who not only won over a mile last year, but also took the nine furlong Feilden Stakes in her Guineas prep, running on close home. She looks for all the world like an Oaks filly, and is overlooked by this scribe for the shorter test next Sunday.

Pollenator won over a mile in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes last back end and, as a defeat in a Folkestone maiden would intimate, she ought not to be good enough to take this. Though, in a year when there is no outstanding candidate, Folkestone form may be as good as Bath form! (With due respect to both courses, where I've enjoyed sun-drenched happy days!)

Further down the lists we search, and the next contender to eliminate herself is Termagant. In fairness to her, she has excellent credentials having seen off both Lillie Langtry and Long Lashes last time in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. However, her trainer is intent on running at the Curragh for the Irish Guineas, and she’ll take a lot of beating there on ground softer than good.

Plume is a non-runner according to trainer Richard Hannon; and Joanna, vanquisher of favourite Special Duty last time, is also not going to run at Newmarket, preferring the French version where she must have an excellent chance.

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Hibaayeb has been supported in recent weeks and does have Group form, notably when winning the Fillies' Mile at Ascot last season. She's another who was beaten at Folkestone earlier in her career, and her overall form - whilst high - looks more noteworthy for the longer trip at Epsom than here.

Puff won the Fred Darling first time out this season, and could be interesting. Although she was beaten on several occasions as a 2yo, her first run at seven furlongs was her most impressive performance to date. She has clearly wintered well, and is one of the few for whom a mile looks spot on. She'll have the benefit of that seasonal debut and, whilst I'm not suggesting she'll necessarily win, the 25's with Hills, Ladbrokes and VC looks decent each way value in a wide open year.

Suddenly we are into the realms of the 25 and 33/1 chances, and it looks as though at least one major trend for the 1000 Guineas will be breached. That being the case, I imagine it will be that a horse outside the first two last time out will prevail.

This brings in those at the head of the market: Special Duty and Seta. With the last three French winners of the Cheveley Park Stakes all going on to win the 1000 Guineas, it's not difficult to forgive Special Duty a below-par run last time. That said, nor is it difficult to overlook her from a punting perspective at 3/1.

The other trial of note is the Rockfel Stakes. Both Speciosa and Finsceal Beo won the Rockfel prior to winning the Guineas in recent seasons, so perhaps we do need to consider Music Show’s two Bath victories after all!

I will side with history, and the Cheveley Park and Rockfel form and back Music Show to win, with a saver only on Special Duty. As a more speculative poke, I'll have a couple of farthings each way on Puff, who will outstay many more fancied horses, I believe.

Finally, in the inevitable post-race gushing and fawning, bear these figures in mind before piling into the Guineas winners for the Oaks and Derby:

Only Kazzia (10/3) in 2002 followed up in the Oaks since Salsabil back in 1991; and only the magnificent Sea The Stars (11/4) was able to double up in the Derby since that other giant of the flat game, Nashwan, way back in 1989.

It is likely that the Guineas winners will be offered at very short odds for the next two Classics. Look to oppose them with confidence over half a mile further and on a completely different track constitution.

Matt

10 replies
  1. Jim Cannon says:

    Matt

    I think there is an extra variable this year which is the weather. We have had a proper winter for the first time in ages and this must mean it will be harder to get horses ready (and I understand fillies are harder to get ready early anyhow). Haven’t a clue what this means in picking the winner!!!! Possibly any with early season outings may have a bigger advantage than normal.

    Let’s hope the sun shines at the weekend.

    Jim

  2. Man says:

    I can see Rumoush making the frame as it isn’t an outstanding renewal. And then going on to win the Oaks I hope!
    As to finding the winner itself I think if Special Duty sees out the trip she will probably win. May get 4-1 on course on the day if i’m lucky. Music Show is a possible even though Fallon has jumped ship – a trend horse like you said. Seta doesnt want fast ground. Puff’s trainer isnt sure she will get a mile. An outsider that’s interesting is Lady Darshaan. Did its best piece of work down at Hannon’s yard last week apparently and may be the forgotten horse at around 25-1. The other interesting outsider is Misheer. In the race that Puff won the horse was too free and pulled like hell and couldnt have given its running. If it settles the 25s/33s may be too big and as you know Clive Brittain is a wily old fox.

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Interesting comments guys.

      Jim, if you’re right about the benefit of a run then that will favour all of Special Duty, Music Show and Puff (amongst others).

      Man, if Lady Darshaan pulled too hard and didn’t get home over 7f, what chance over 8f? Fallon hasn’t jumped the MS ship, he’s been retained by his trainer, Luca Cumani. Puff wasn’t stopping over seven, so I’d be very surprised if she didn’t get home. She might not be good enough, but that’s a different issue!

      Matt

  3. Mark (The Brigadier) says:

    Aidan O’Brien has three entered at the five-day stage – all will have pretensions to stardom but none have, as yet, performed but these types are always brought along slowly. These are Famous, You’ll Be Mine and Devoted To You. Strangely though, almost without exception, Coolmore’s champions have champion names… almost as if they know! Have these?

    Murtagh hasn’t decided which to ride yet. This will be significant not just for the choice itself but also for the price which will drop like a stone when he does choose!

    Stan James is offering NR/NB. It is quite possible all three will run; Coolmore needs to get black type for these expensive ones… I suspect he will choose You’ll Be Mine (40/1 with SJ). Recommend get on and lay off when the price falls to 16/1 at the weekend. You might like to back Devoted To You (he might choose that one instead – Famous least likely) – at 25’s with the same firm…

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Mark

      Although I suspect you are writing on behalf of a bookmaker, your comments are interesting with regards to Murtagh’s choice. SJ are best price on Famous and You’ll Be Mine, and are the only firm currently going NR/NB.

      If you fancy Devoted To You, you’ll get better value elsewhere though with the caveat that if she doesn’t run, you’ve done your punts.

      Matt

  4. Man says:

    Lady Daarshaan didnt pull too hard it was Misheer. And fallon said on racing post tv ‘i hope ive chosen the right one’ which implies he had the choice.

  5. Mark (The Brigadier) says:

    I promise you Matt I am a private punter whose day job is insurance broking… absolutely no connection whatsoever with a bookmaker…

    Keep up the good work! This is an excellent site.

  6. Seabird says:

    This week the international Globeform race rating site has put in a good work for Sent from Heaven; noting the filly has done well over the winter and produced a very good trial gallop recently. was 50/1 with Ladbrokes. You can still get 40/1. maybe not the likely winner but possibly good ew value.

  7. John Parsons says:

    Good comments Matt. I don’t think Rumoush will find a mile too short. I think she’s a class act filly, better than Ghanaati. I have to say I’ve had 2 grand on Special Duty at 5-2, so I’ve already done some money, and I’m not financially involved with Rumoush, but Tregoning is oozing confidence and the owner has won the race umpteen times whether or not she wins. I like Puff as an each way bet, Beckett is very good with fillies.

  8. Man says:

    With the forecast rain and the ground likely to ease the race has a different look about it. I’m siding with Seta.

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