Newmarket July Course

Newmarket (July Course) Review 2013

Newmarket July Course

Newmarket July Course

Newmarket's July season is now over and so we asked Mal Boyle (author of the excellent Daily Stat Pack) to compile a definitive review of the season and this produced the following facts and figures, which we think will be most helpful next time around:

NEWMARKET (JULY) DETAILS FOR 2013:  

Number of races at Newmarket (July): 151
Favourite stats: 59 (39.1%--includes joint and co favourites)
Odds on ratio: 12/20 (60.0%)

140/151 winners (92.7%) were returned at odds of 12/1 or less

Leading trainers at Newmarket (July) in 2013:

16/60--Saeed Bin Suroor (8/1-4/1-11/10*-5/1-9/2-11/10*-Evs*-4/1-8/11*-3/1*-13/2-1/25*-11/4*-11/4-4/5*-9/2)

13/97--Richard Hannon (5/2*-5/2**-11/4**-14/1-4/7*-7/2*-9/1-15/8*-5/1-5/2-8/1-6/4*-5/4*)

12/42--John Gosden (9/4*-3/1-11/4-3/1-9/4**-9/2-10/1-11/4*-15/8*-3/1-11/8*-12/1)

9/51--Mark Johnston (4/5*-7/1-4/5*-15/2-3/1*-8/1-9/2-10/1-2/5*)

8/28--Charlie Appleby (5/2-5/2*-5/2-1/5*-10/1-3/1-3/1**-6/1)

4/19--Jeremy Noseda (9/2**-10/11*-10/1-3/1)

4/20--Richard Fahey (7/1-7/2-5/4*-13/8*)

4/24--Brian Meehan (11/4*-4/6*-9/2-5/4*)

4/28--Luca Cumani (3/1*-5/1-15/8*-7/4*)

4/29--Andrew Balding (4/1*-10/1-11/4-8/1)

4/34--Charlie Hills (4/1-8/13*-7/1-33/1)

3/9--Dean Ivory (16/1-3/1-2/1*)

3/12--James Fanshawe (5/4*-12/1-14/1)

3/16--Kevin Ryan (15/2-12/1-5/6*)

3/16--Stuart Williams (5/1-8/1-10/1)

3/21--David Simcock (25/1-20/1-10/3*)

2/3--Gary Moore (4/1* & 6/4*)

2/3--Sir Mark Prescott (6/4* & 11/4)

2/8--Conrad Allen (11/2 & 7/2)

2/8--Denis Coakley (9/2 & 7/2)

2/9--Lady Cecil (11/8* & 33/1)

2/11--John Hills (7/1 & 9/2)

2/14--Henry Candy (7/2-6/1)

2/15--David Elsworth (12/1 & 6/1)

2/16--Ralph Beckett (9/2 & 8/1)

2/19--Sir Michael Stoute (5/4* & 7/2*)

2/24--Marco Botti (12/1 & 5/4*)

2/27--Michael Bell (15/2 & 3/1)

1/1--John Butler (9/4)

1/1--Tony Martin (7/1)

1/2--Ruth Carr (7/2*)

1/2--Scott Dixon (7/2)

1/2--Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque (80/1)

1/3--Declan Carroll (4/1)

1/3--Jeremy Gask (8/1)

1/4--Paul Cole (10/1)

1/4--Brian Ellison (9/4*)

1/4--David Nicholls (8/1)

1/4--Jamie Osborne (14/1)

1/4--Ollie Pears (9/1)

1/5--Anthony Carson (2/1)

1/5--George Margarson (20/1)

1/6--William Jarvis (11/4*)

1/6--Jonathan Portman (7/1)

1/6--James Tate (5/4*)

1/7--Ed McMahon (14/1)

1/8--Gary Harrison (6/1)

1/8--Mike Murphy (15/8*)

1/9--Clive Cox (9/2)

1/10--Chris Wall (3/1)

1/12--John Ryan (7/4*)

1/14--Alan Bailey (8/1)

1/14--Clive Brittain (7/1)

1/14--Phil McBride (8/1)

1/16--William Knight (11/2)

1/17--Roger Varian (7/4*)

1/22--William Haggas (13/8**)

1/26--Mick Channon (12/1)

 

Stats of leading trainers at various stages during the summer through the summer (which trainers peaked early/middle/late)--total of 22 meetings:

After 4 meetings: 

4/17--Saeed Bin Suroor (final total: 16/60)

2/3--Jeremy Noseda (4/19)

2/6--Luca Cumani (4/28)

2/8--Andrew Balding (4/29)

2/11--Mark Johnston (9/51)

After 11 meetings:

13/45--Saeed Bin Suroor (16/60)

7/49--Richard Hannon (13/97)

6/29--Mark Johnston (9/51)

5/21--John Gosden (12/42)

4/8--Jeremy Noseda (4/19)

After 17 meetings:

13/50--Saeed Bin Suroor (16/60)

10/66--Richard Hannon (13/97)

6/40--Mark Johnston (9/51)

5/26--John Gosden (12/42)

Selected trainers who failed to saddle a winner on the July course this year:

0/20--Ed Dunlop

0/11--Amanda Perrett

0/10--Alan McCabe

0/9--David Barron

0/9--'Team Burke'

0/9--Roger Charlton

0/9--Hughie Morrison

0/9--Ed Vaughan

0/7--Peter Chapple-Hyam

0/7--Robert Cowell

0/6--Jane Chapple-Hyam

0/6--Tom Dascombe

0/6--Stan Moore

0/6--Ian Williams

0/5--Ron Harris

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0/5--William Muir

0/5--Derek Shaw

0/5--Ed Walker

0/4--Tim Easterby

0/4--Hugo Palmer

0/4--Olly Stevens

Trainers of most beaten favourites:

13--Saeed Bin Suroor (6/4-15/8-2/1-5/2**-11/2**-7/4**-9/4**-11/4-11/4-7/4-10/11-5/2-15/8)

9--William Haggas (9/2**-11/8-9/4-6/4-2/1-11/2-7/4**-5/2-7/4)

5--Charlie Appleby (6/4-7/4-4/1-5/4-4/5)

5--Andrew Balding (5/2**-5/2-7/2-8/11-3/1)

5--John Gosden (7/4-13/8-4/6-7/2-5/4)

5--Mark Johnston (11/8-11/4-9/4-5/2-3/1**)

4--Richard Hannon (15/8-4/7-9/4-6/4)

4--Jeremy Noseda (7/2**-2/1-7/2-7/2)

4--David Simcock (7/2-7/1****-4/1-15/8)

3--Brian Meehan (9/4-9/4-2/1)

3--Sir Michael Stoute (2/1-3/1-10/3)

2--David Barron (7/2-5/4)

2--Michael Bell (4/7-3/1)

2--Henry Candy (7/2-7/1****)

2--Luca Cumani (15/8 & 2/1)

2--Tom Dascombe (6/4 & 7/2)

2--James Fanshawe (15/8 & 11/4)

2--William Knight (5/2** & 13/8)

2--Roger Varian (13/8** & 7/4)

1--Conrad Allen (7/2**)

1--Ralph Beckett (5/6)

1--Clive Brittain (11/10)

1--Gerard Butler (4/6)

1--Lady Cecil (7/4)

1--Peter Chapple-Hyam (5/4)

1--Robert Cowell (13/8)

1--Clive Cox (15/8)

1--Jim Goldie (11/4**)

1--Rae Guest (3/1)

1--Mick Hammond (11/2)

1--Charlie Hills (11/8)

1--Jo Hughes (5/2)

1--Dean Ivory (6/4)

1--Violet M Jordan (7/2)

1--M de Kock (3/1)

1--Ger Lyons (13/2)

1--Hughie Morrison (2/1)

1--Aidan O'Brien (9/4)

1--John O'Shea (5/2)

1--Ollie Pears (11/8)

1--Tim Pitt (13/8)

1--Kevin Ryan (7/1****)

1--Derek Shaw (7/1****)

1--Bryan Smart (6/1)

1--William Stone (9/2)

1--Richard Whitaker (7/2)

1--Michael Wigham (11/4)

Complete favourite stats (odds on ratio in brackets)

8/12--Richard Hannon (1/2)

8/21--Saeed Bin Suroor (3/4)

5/10--John Gosden (0/1)

4/9--Mark Johnston (3/3)

3/5--Luca Cumani (-)

3/6--Brian Meehan (1/1)

3/8--Charlie Appleby (1/2)

2/2--Richard Fahey (-)

2/2--Gary Moore (-)

2/5--Sir Michael Stoute (-)

2/6--Jeremy Noseda (1/1)

1/1--Marco Botti (-)

1/1--Ruth Carr (-)

1/1--Brian Ellison (-)

1/1--William Jarvis (-)

1/1--Mike Murphy (-)

1/1--Sir Mark Prescott (-)

1/1--John Ryan (-)

1/1--James Tate (-)

1/2--Lady Cecil (-)

1/2--Charlie Hills (1/1)

1/2--Dean Ivory (-)

1/2--Kevin Ryan (1/1)

1/3--James Fanshawe (-)

1/3--Roger Varian (-)

1/5--David Simcock (-)

1/6--Andrew Balding (0/1)

1/10--William Haggas (-)

0/1--Conrad Allen (-)

0/1--Ralph Beckett (0/1)

0/1--Clive Brittain (-)

0/1--Clive Cox (-)

0/1--Ollie Pears (0/1)

0/2--Michael Bell (0/1)

0/2--Henry Candy (-)

0/2--William Knight (-)

As you can see, Saeed Bin Suroor had the most winners here this year, with 16 from his 60 runners: a strike rate of 26.67% producing level stakes profits of 12.07pts at betfair SP, a return of 20.12% ROI.

Of all the trainers with 10 runners or more, the 28.6% strike rates achieved by both Charlie Appleby (8/28) and John Gosden (12/42) were the best on record this year.

Much of the success achieved by Messrs bin Suroor and Appleby were down to the phenomenal performance of jockey Mickael Barzalona, who rode 19 winners from his 55 mounts this time around. That's a terrific strike rate of 34.55% producing level stakes profits of 35.6pts at betfair SP, an ROI of some 64.7%.

All Mickael's winners came from the 46 runners priced at 8/1 or under: 19 winners from 46 = 41.3% and the 44.6pts profit represents a return of 96.9% over stakes invested.

But, as I said earlier, he was largely responsible for the success of the two trainers mentioned above.His record of 19/55 was very good anyway, but the 17/38 on horses priced at 8/1 or under for these two trainers is incredible. The 44.7% strike rate produced profits of 44.65pts, a return of over 117% of stakes!

From Saeed bin Suroor's 16/60 record, Mr Barzalona rode 11 winners from 25, a strike rate of 25% yielding profits of  30.26pts (+121% ROI), whilst from Charlie Appleby's 8/28, he was 6/13! That's a 46.2% win ratio for profits of 14.39pts (+110.7% ROI).

My advice? Back all Mickael Barzalona's rides on the July course when they're priced at 8/1 or under. Double up when the horse is trained by either Saeed bin Suroor or Charlie Appleby.

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