Orbit, Conspiracies, and Thursday Fun…

[Aaaaargh, apologies for the ridiculous email subject which might have brought you here.  A fatal copy and paste cock up from yours truly... Sorry, sorry, sorry. One of those weeks!]

A short-ish post today, dear reader, to mention a few dispatches. One of my horse-y interests is running today at Huntingdon, I'm updating you on the results of the Betfair Conspiracy (what a hornet's nest that's proven to be!), and I've got a spot of Thursday Fun to boot.

First up, dear old Olly runs at Huntingdon in the 3.35 race. There's only five runners in a novice hurdle, but two of them are rated 140+, and trained by Messrs Henderson and Nicholls.

My suspicion is that they might not go that searching a gallop, and that will probably find Orbit out. However, that said, I'd hope that he'd be able to nick third, with a bit of luck. Again, and mainly because I'm a hopeless romantic, I'll be backing him each way, but I couldn't really recommend the same to anyone else!

Incidentally, and I wonder if they know, but a bizarre quirk of fate will see Orbit race against one of only three siblings from his mum's side. His ma, Dansara, has been a great mare, producing four race horses: Self Defense (high class hurdler), Dance World (won four races, including a hurdle for Julia, Olly's trainer), Olly himself (flat turf, all weather, and hurdle winner), and Sarando.

Sarando opposes today, and he himself is already a hurdles winner from four starts.

Good luck Olly, and - along with all the others - come back safe!

********

Onwards, ever onwards, and although I wasn't planning to, I think I'll track the Betfair Conspiracy selections for a week or two. I've put the ones I've sided with up on the blog over the last couple of days, and will continue so to do for several days to come. (Note, we all know that such a microcosm is far from ideal in terms of system tracking, but it does serve a purpose for those who've purchased to compare their picks with mine - and they don't need to be exactly the same).

Today, I'm going in with the 2.00 Huntingdon and, somewhat more contentiously perhaps, the 7.40 Kempton.

Your first 30 days for just £1

For those following as users, I discounted the Hun 3.35 because of trip concerns; the Hun 5.10 due to fitness and trainer; the Sou 2.10 for fitness and track; Sou 2.40 collateral form (wouldn't have bet anyway, too short); Sou 3.45 because of the pilot / track; and the Kem 6.10 on form, or lack thereof.

Conscious that that will mean little or nothing to most, I hope it adds some colour to the systems owning and paper trading minority.

I'll also start to publish the cumulative results from tomorrow. One horse made late headway to finish 4th, beaten a neck out of the places yesterday, which was the only blot on an otherwise unblemished copybook.

At Betfair SP, I'm currently showing 3.2% up on my starting bank. If I'd included the horses that I excluded because they were too short (i.e. 1.25 or less), I'd be showing 4.3% profit. [This will all mean more from tomorrow, when you're looking at the same numbers I am...]

Take a look at the Betfair Conspiracy (and ignore the stupid sales copy) here.

********

Lastly today, just time for some Thursday Fun, which kind of sums up my mood these last few days. How easy it is to be misconstrued when you're just telling it like it is...

Matt

10 replies
  1. Arthur says:

    Hi Matt,

    May decide to invest in a copy of the conspiracy, I will wait to see how it goes with you over the next few days, send me your link for this, I know you get a small fee but if it helps to keep you running online then that can only be of a benefit to the rest of us, I am having a small e/w on olly myself fingers crossed.

    Arthur

  2. maneman says:

    Matt,
    I know that this may not be the right place to ask this but here goes in any case.
    Do you know anything about Bet-IE/Laz-IE & bettingprofitsoftware.net and what is currently happening?
    I understand that it was run by two guys, Nessie and Dave but Dave left around Christmas time. I have been a user of their software up until yesterday since all seems to have ceased.
    Appreciate any enlightenment.
    M

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Sorry M, the last I heard was that there was a (not too agreeable) split and Dave did the offs without any prior warning. I haven’t heard any recent updates, which is interesting as I used to be on their mailing list.

      Matt

  3. keith says:

    hi matt,
    i have been overpowered by this system called MARK LA
    YTONS 1000 POINT SYSTEM . do you know anything about it. it sounds good but dont they all.

    keith lawrie

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Keith

      I’ve got a copy of it and it’s a kind of trainertrackstats systems. It might make a profit but it won’t be 1000 points a year! I’ll try to get someone to trial it on the blog.

      Matt

  4. jim fenell says:

    Anyone heard of Richard Arlington Racing?
    Would appreciate any views. Thanks

  5. sim says:

    Hi Matt,
    Maybe should point out that any race between 5 & 7 runners represents poor value…especially when compared to 16 + runner handicaps (but we all know what happens in them). You can get 6/1 without the fav at paddy power,get your money back and a bit for the e/w if he can get into 3rd.
    Good Luck,
    Sim

  6. Jack Stanley Crompton says:

    Hi
    Not wishing to sound nerdy, but I’d just like to correct Sim’s remark about each-way value. The chances of your selection being placed in a 5-runner race are 40%, 6 runners – 33%, 7 runners – 28.5% and 16 runners – 25%, decreasing as the number of runners rises.
    Sorry about Olly, btw. Perhaps he needs the ground a bit less squelchy.
    Jack

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Jack

      That percentage chance doesn’t take into account respective ability. For instance, the chance of a 4/6 shot placing in a 6 runner field is not the same as a 25/1 shot. But I take your point!

      Re Night Orbit, must have been something other than the ground wrong there. He traveled brilliantly, and then stopped in a matter of strides. I’ll chat to Julia tonight and see what happened. He might just need a break, he’s been on the go for some time now.

      Best,
      Matt

      p.s. I hope you’re getting some of our precipitation over in France too…

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