Hi, my name is Paul Moon and Matt has given me permission to proof my Pacafi system on his blog.
I first started talking to Matt about this a number of months ago and in a live test elsewhere, I was able to double a twenty point starting bank within 135 bets (ROI of around 15%).
The great thing about Pacafi is that the horses I select are all at the top end of the market and most of them win. In fact, my win strike rate was 57% during that trial.
I'll not say anything more at this stage except that I'll be proofing my selections on here for the next few weeks for you all to see. Starting on Monday 2 May 2011 all selections will take the form of win singles to a Â£1 level stake. Once we are up and running I will report back to you with specific aims and targets, suffice it to say that we intend to make a profit from the start and build on that.
Monday 2 May 2011
Selection: Danehill Dante 3.30 Kempton currently trading at 11/10 with Victor Chandler at best price guaranteed (09.13).
The selection was a borderline decision as it just met the Pacafi criteria so not one for maximum stakes. Initially the horse looks badly drawn in stall 13 but he is unlikely to be inconvenienced with eight horses inside him having their first run. With a mile to travel Richard Hughes should have the Hannon colt organised and well placed to make his challenge. His first run was decent when finishing third in strong maiden (travelled wide that day) when he ran on to the line nicely. Sure to improve for the run.Â Looks to have the James Fanshawe horse Dimension to beat (if ready). Our selection is 150,000 euros brother to last year's Group 3 Gordon Stakes winner Rebel Soldier (now in Australia).
Our selection was heavily supported from 11/10 to 4/6 and was expected to win but was beaten by the nominated danger Dimension! After securing a good early pitch the horse was made to run a bit quicker than was prudent and then appeared not to handle the bend too well. In any case he was no match for the winner. (Â£1 LOSE).
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£1.00 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Tuesday 3 May 2011
Selection: Signifer 2.30 Bath currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.12).
Ran well on debut at Newbury in Class 4 on same going and formed since franked. Must be very hard to beat today in Class 5 though price not generous. The young jockey riding the horse is Martin Harley and he is not a negative.
Earlier today we mentioned that Martin Harley was not a negative booking for our selection Signifer and he proved the point by riding his first treble for his boss Mick Channon. Signifer took a keen hold, hung right and did not negotiate the bend too well but still won his race comfortably. He was heavily supported going from our price of 4/5 into 2/5. There is talk of a trip to Royal Ascot should he follow up this win. (Â£0.80 WIN).
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£0.20 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Wednesday 4 May 2011
Selection: York Glory 2.10 Southwell currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.27).
Only doubt is whether the selection handles the surface but every indication that it will do. Trainer has great record at Southwell these days with 11 winners from 32Â runners and a 34% strike rate and we are a huge fan of Phillip Makin. The obvious danger is Calaf but he pulls so hard in his races. Our selection is well regarded at home, his previous two runs has seen him go off favourite both times at 9/4 and 1/2. Those races were Class 5 but today is Class 6. Worth mentioning that York Glory would have won in his previous race at Lingfield but was denied a clear run at a vital stage, also ran green for second time, bound to win a race. We had priced this horse up at about 11/10 last night.
We thought we had secured a good price at 11/8 and so it proved. Had to be ridden out to win but first two were eight lengths clear of third. My lasting memory of the race was watching Phillip Makin refusing to panic and almost persuading his horse to go by and win his race. (Â£1.37 WIN).
Profit and Loss to date: +Â£1.17 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Thursday 5 May 2011
Selection: Captain Bertie 1.45 Chester is currently trading at 5/6 with Betfred best price guaranteed (09.05).
Whilst having a last look at Captain Bertie's last run at Sandown we missed the price of 10/11 but feel the current price is acceptable without being great value. The horse acts at Chester, is well in at the weights and is improving. If he repeats his last run he will be very hard to beat.
They smashed into this colt but only managed third place at 1/2. Jockey Michael Hills told reporters that the ground was 'too lively' and not to give up on him. We have sinced watched the video of the race a few times and to the neophyte we thought his gait appeared to suit fast going. We have since been reliably informed by one or two commentators that the Captain has big feet and this is normally an indication of favouring some give in the ground. We hope we are not talking through our pocket but remain unconvinced. (Â£1 LOSE).
Profit and Loss to date: +Â£0.17 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Friday 6 May 2011
Selection: Fine Style 7.05 Hamilton currently trading at 11/10 with William Hill best price guaranteed (09.02).
Michael Bell takes two horses from Newmarket to Hamilton tonight and it could be argued that the main reason for the trip is for filly Royal Liasion who runs in the 8.15 Maiden Stakes race but we expect Fine Style to win earlier. The trainer is in form and does well on his northern ventures and has a strike rate of 20% at the course though on a smallish sample (3-15). The present going is good to soft and although Fine Style won at Yarmouth on good to firm we do not think a bit of give will inconvenience our selection. Micky Fenton rides (8% strike rate this year) and although we would prefer someone more able he should get the job done!
Our selection was soundly beaten but should have come second and not third. When a three-year old misses the start over a trip of one mile three furlongs I am not sure how wise it is to use petrol up in the first furlong to get second place off a fast pace? At headquarters we have three lists of jockeys - positive, competent and negative, we considered moving Micky Fenton from competent to negative but how can you do that to a 1,000 Guineas winner? Once again for one of our selections the money was down being backed from 11/10 to 10/11. All five of our selections have been heavily supported this week and we would like to talk more about that next week. (Â£1 LOSE).
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£0.83 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Saturday 7 May 2011
Selection: Flambeau 2.10 Lingfield is currently trading at even money with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (09.42).
Everyone was taken by the manner of Flambeau's victory at Leicester. Despite getting warm beforehand this big filly quickened up when asked and hacked up without being touched. She has strengthened and can do even better and even money looks a great price!
John Francome gave us some interesting information this week about horses sweating between its hind legs (as opposed to elsewhere) before a race. He claimed â€˜when that happens the horse is worried that something is going to hurt and the horse will not run on its meritsâ€™. Our selection today Flambeau was heavily backed from 11/10 to 8/11 and things looked in order until Ken Pitterson of William Hill gave us bad news from the paddock. He confirmed the horse was awash with sweat and in particular between her hind legs and that her chance had already been lost.
Enter jockey Dane Oâ€™Neill. In Flambeauâ€™s last race she was allowed to travel into the race before showing a blistering turn of foot to win, so this time the jockey, after seeing her sweat up, decided to try and lead all the way nullifying her finishing kick! Of course she was beaten by a closer! Have I missed something? (Â£1 LOSE).
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£1.83 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Sunday 8 May 2011
There are no selections today but here is a review of our first week:
There is no disguising the fact that we have got off to a bad start regarding the proofing of the selections. To have registered a 33% strike rate this week was both disappointing and below standard. The aim is to achieve a figure close to 60% and something we have done over the past year!
The results do not show the complete picture however. We reviewed every selection and even with hindsight they were worthy. AllÂ the horses had the profile to win their respective races although it could be argued (though not proved yet) that Captain Bertie needs to stick his toe in and was selected on very fast going. Every horse went close to winning and every one was placed.
Incidentally, the nature of the selections will return an extremely high place strike rate and there is an opportunity to secure better-placed odds in running! On a previous trial (six months) nearly 90% of the horses were placed and this was mostly during the jump season where horses fell when in contention. During this flat season we expect to better that figure with most losers in second place as opposed to third (more about that later).
We believe there is a forecast system lurking within this system/strategy and we are in the process of logging results for the duration of this trial.
It is important to stress that every selection comes with perceived value attached. You will notice that the vast majority of nominations get heavily backed because the price is big at the time of selection, please see proof below:
Danehill Dante backed from 11/10 to 4/6
Signifer backed from 4/5 to 2/5
York Glory backed from 11/8 to 8/13
Captain Bertie backed from 5/6 to 1/2
Fine Style backed from 11/10 to 10/11
Flambeau backed from evens to 8/11
Please note that we have not secured the very best prices but those available early in the morning at what is considered real value at best price guaranteed. The opportunity presents itself to trade off and reduce the stake liability if so inclined.
There will be another update this time next week, meanwhile the pressure is on!
Monday 9 May 2011
We were very keen to get going today but the two horses that met the Pacafi criteria were too short a price for us to select. For interest purposesÂ the two horses that qualified were Bannock 2.20 Redcar and Alkimos 7.40 Windsor. Please be reminded they are NOT selections!
Both qualifiers won but by early morning the value had gone on Bannock and we were looking for 10/11 about Alkimos because of the presence of Oaks entrant Moment Of Time. Once again both horses were heavily backed from the time of print meaning that every single horse that has qualified for the Pacafi bet has been very heavily supported. This will be a common theme!
Tuesday 10 May 2011
Selection: Koo And The Gang 8.30 Southwell is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 at best price guaranteed (08.52).
Any selection made on the allweather at SouthwellÂ must include course form. Our selection won his last race there over a mile and recorded a fastÂ time and although racing a furlong shorter today (has ran well here at 6f)Â is able to race up with the pace and stay on to the line. The horse has two wins and a second place from five runs at this track. The trainer is in great form and although Paul Pickard would not be our first choice jockey he does take off 3lb. The price has a touch a value and we expect it to start at around 4/5.
The race went exactly to plan and we even predicted the SP (WIN Â£0.91).
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£0.92 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Wednesday 11 May 2011
It is with some frustration that there are no qualifiers for the Pacafi bet today.
Thursday 12 May 2011
Selection: Night Carnation 3.35 York is currently trading at 10/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed (09.29).
This horse clearly qualifies for the Pacafi bet but we were looking for even money to 11/10. This is the first time we have not pinched value at the time of striking the bet but we think our horse will win. She has Margot Did to beat.Â Our selectionÂ is improving and Andrew Balding's horses are usually better for a run so we expect her to continue her upward curve. BaldingÂ has said in the past that his charge would like a bit of cut so it is possible she could be better on the soft side of good, if there was a bit of rain during the day that could only help. The filly does have a high head carriage but that should not put anyone off.
The filly was backedÂ into 4/6 which made our price look good! All 10 bet Pacafi qualifiers have been backed significantly which confirms our claim for grabbing value! Night Carnation won but most agree it was not an improvement on her Sandown run but we disagree. She had to race on the outside and took the full brunt of the wind throughout the race and if Balding is correct about the horse's preference for a bit of give in the ground thenÂ this upgrades the apparent workmanlike performance. We were pleased with the run. (WIN Â£0.91)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£0.01 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Friday 13 May 2011
We had three qualifying Pacafi bets today but they have all been backed off the boards through the night and there is now no value in them. This is something that I need to think about in the future, apologies for having nothing to talk about today! When circumstances and prices allow I will think about posting selection the night before but this comes with risk especially when thinking about ground conditions and non-runners etc...
Saturday 15 May 2011
There are no selections today, nothing met the criteria.
Sunday 16 May 2011
It has been a strange week in that although there have been horses meeting our 'criteria to bet' the prices have been too short - even for us. Typically they have won but we decided against flagging them up!Â If a horse is deemed not to have perceived value we cannot select it and we are happy to watch it win without our stake.
We would like to emphasise the fact that every single horse selected or mentioned have shortened in price significantly and as you proof my nominations over a period of time you will see that over 90% get backed (most areÂ heavily supported). The other relevant point is that most will be placed and of those placed more will come second than third!Â To date every horse has either won or been placed. We are currently logging results in regards to 'forecasts' and will report back when we have a proper sample size.
This week we only had two selections (and apologies for that)Â but they both won bringing our strike rate up to 50%. We hope to be much busier this week.
Monday 16 May 2011
Selection: My Lucky Liz 6.00 Windsor is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.09)
Her first race was quite impressive and with natural progression she will be very hard to beat. There might be a good unraced filly lurking within the field but she will have to be good to beat our selection. Trainer David Simcock has been hitting the bar in recent weeks so it was a relief that he had a winner at Hamilton last Friday. This is his only runner today and at 11/8 there is value in the selection.
Yesterday was very disappointing. Our selection was heavily supported and expected to win (11/8 to evens) but she never got a run. After getting a great early pitch she found herself behind horses at the 2f pole. She can win over 5f but might be better over 6f. In the race Miss Lahar ran really well and looks a winner next time out over a bit further. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£1.01 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Tuesday 17 May 2011
Selection: Baltic Light 7.00 Kempton is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.00).
This is a confident selection and maximum stakes are on. There was loads to like watching her debut run against her stable companion Aldedash at Nottingham and she only needs to improve a little. She has scope and size, trip looks right, trainer in great form and this a poor race.
There was a slow pace early on and this did not help our selection but she picked up nicely in the straight to win easily. This big fillyÂ remains progressive, was not given a hard race and will certainly win more races. She could easily get further. For the first time in the trial we took advantage of backing a horse with 'best price guaranteed' and the 5/4 SP was a real bonus - she was a 4/5 shot in my book and we thought our original 5/6 was value! In ten races to date this is the first selection to drift in price, this will be a rare occurence (WIN Â£1.25)
Profit and Loss to date: +Â£0.24 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Wednesday 18 May 2011
Today only Glee 2.00 Goodwood meets the Pacafi criteria but is too short a price at 4/9 so is NOT a selection! Besides, one would be worried about the claims of well bred Falls Of Lora. We will just watch this race!
We landed the forecast but the prices were just too short for us...
Thursday 19 May 2011
Selection: Loden 7.40 Salisbury is currently trading at 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.04).
For the first time in this trial we are a little unsure as to whether 6/4 rates value but think the horse will win with conditions to suit. Pricing up the race last night our original thoughts was that 7/4 was a fair price so we went back to the videos and looked again. The upshot of that was the extended trip will certainly help and the horse is progressive. The trainer is in brilliant form at the moment and we have Keiren Fallon up.
The dismal run of Loden cannot be explained. Very heavily backed from 6/4 to 4/5 we thought we had secured a lovely price winner but the horse did not pick up and looked one paced. Cannot believe that was his run but will not be backing him again! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£0.76 (to a Â£1 level stake)
Friday 20 May 2011
Selection: Tenhoo 5.30 Haydock is currently trading at 8/13 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.26).
Yes the price is short but he cannot be opposed (WIN Â£0.62)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£0.14 (to a Â£1 level stake)
Selection: Peintre d'Argent 7.30 Musselburgh is currently trading at 5/6 with William Hill best price guaranteed (10.04).
Whilst we were thinking about this selection we missed the price of 10/11 but 5/6 just about represents value and we expect it to go off at least 4/5. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£1.14 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Saturday 21 May 2011
Selection: Apostle 4.15 York is currently trading at 6/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (11.43).
He has Brocklebank to beat and will need to have learnt more about racing on his second run at this track last week when second but on debut was sent off warm favourite so we know Michael Bell thinks something of this horse. This is his only runner at York today and we will take the hint. Do not think the Johnston horse Comical can win the race after checking market moves on Betfair (friendless). The trainer has a line on the Ryan horse and will know if he can beat Brocklebank and it appears it cannot, at least not today!
Our selection ran his race but got beat by the better horse. On reflection we knew this was a tight call and probably too tight. We are such big fans of Brocklebank's jockey Phillip Makin and should have just watched the race! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£2.14 (toÂ a Â£1 level stake).
Selection: Jet Away 4.25 Goodwood is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (12.01).
We are wary of the threat of Steel Tango but he has to prove he is a 1m 4f horse. Tend to think he is 1m 2f specialist. Besides we had the Jet priced at 8/11 so a tad of value at 4/5. Henry Cecil is in red hot form but Roger Teal 0-23 at Goodwood last five seasons. Will not be easy but percentage call of the two, cannot back Godolphin at the moment...
Do not think this was one of Tom Queally's greatest rides! The whole world is aware of how dangerous Frankie is when given an uncontested lead. He is one of a few jockeys who understands speed fractions when leading and has the knack of keeping a bit for the last push. Enter Queally who decides he will not only gift him the easy lead but detach his horse significantly from the other four runners. One understands sometimes the need to settle a horse but to be lengths off the rest of the field is something we have never understood (Jamie Spencer - though not so much these days). Just to make winning that much harder he swings five wide off the bend (remember there are only five runners in the race) and the rest is history. We remain convinced we were on the right horse and had secured a decent price. Ye Gods! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£3.14 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Sunday 22 May 2010
Selections: Rocket Man 12.50 Kranji (SIN) is currently trading at 4/6 withÂ Ladbrokes best price guaranteed (10.23)
Blitzed the field and easy 5l winner. The price of the horse was great value! (WIN Â£0.67)
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£2.47 (to a Â£1 level stake).
This has been a poor week for us! Eight selections with only three winners is a poor return. We had three second places one of which was not a great investment. This is not ourÂ usual fayre. It is worth stating that 13 of the 16 selections have been backed, most heavily backedÂ and 14 from 16 have been placed. For those who use our selection in a forecast bet would have collected 12 times.
Monday 23 May 2010
Selection: No Heretic 5.15 Leicester who is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.32).
This horse was smashed into going from 11/10 to 4/9. Jamie Spencer showed why he irritates so many punters by giving the horse a great ride from the front as opposed to his usual and obessional last to first tactics. The horse was clearly held in some regard by trainer Paul Cole and defeat was not considered a possibility. The horse was startled by a fox some way from home and it clearly affected his action and we think the horse banged himself in the process. Spencer dismounted as soon as he had won. It is a race worth reviewing as the result showed a half length win but it was much better that that! (WIN Â£1.10).
Profit and Loss to date: -Â£1.37 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Tuesday 24 May 2010
Selection: Beaumonts Party 4.20 Chepstow is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Monday 20.23).
Wins with the minimum of fuss and a good piece of placing by Andrew Balding. When we saw the price last night at 8.30pm we could not believe the price as it was offered at 11/8 with both Bet365 and William HillÂ and we jumped on! Started at 8/13 and one of those times when laying off was neither an option nor needed! Our best bet of the trial so far! (WIN Â£1.37)
Profit and Loss to date: Â£0.00 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Wednesday 25 May 2011
There areÂ no selections today though we think Pacafi qualifer Letsgoroundagain 2.10 Ayr will probably win. We backed him on Betfair at 2.00 and 1.92 last nightÂ but uncertain whether that represented value and we will now trade off. His price this morning is a little too short especially against a couple of likely sorts.
Thursday 26 May 2011
Apologies for not leaving a message on the site today! We have experienced day long problems with internet connection in our area and it has only just been resolved. We even did a journey to the nearest library but they were experiencing the same problems with a different provider. We will be back tomorrow.
Friday 27 May 2011
Selection: Noble Storm 7.05 Haydock is currently trading at 5/4 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (01.14).
This uncomplicated speed merchant dominated the race and won with ears pricked and once again our selection was heavily backed from 5/4 to 4/5. (WIN Â£1.25)
Profit and Loss to date: +Â£1.25 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Saturday 28 May 2011
It is very frustrating but there is not one horse that fits the Pacafi criteria today! There will be a review of the week tomorrow morning.
Sunday 29 May 2011
Due to a variety or reasons there has only been three selections this week but three great winning selections! No Heretic was backed from 11/10 to 4/9, Beaumonts Party backed from 11/8 to 8/13 and Noble Storm backed from 5/4 to 4/5.
So far this month we have given 19 selections of which 10 has won at an average price of 2.10. These odds have not been the best available. Of the nine that have lost five have come second and 17 of the 19 have been placed (89%). Our current win strike rate is 53%Â and this is below our target standard of 58%.
After reviewing all the selections we have slightly underachieved, one of them was a poor decision (Apostle on 21 May) and this devalued our strike rate.
Of the 19 selections 16 were backed and most of those heavily allowing trading off for those who want to reduce their stake liability. Details or questions regarding the above are available on request.
For the month we are showing a profit of Â£1.25 to a Â£1 level stake.
Monday 30 May 2011
The next selection will be on Wednesday 1 June 2011. Today we are Wembley for a very important football match.
Wednesday 1 June 2011
Al Zir 4.15 Nottingham is currently trading at 6/4 with Boylesports and Paddy Power best price guaranteed (01.19).
This looks a great price - we thought 11/10 was fair....
This horse got backed into 1/2 though there was a rule 4 but it would have still paid even money had it won. Unfortunately it came second and Frankie Dettori was not seen at his best, tactically beaten by Jamie Spencer. The result hurt, ours was the best horse and wouldÂ win if they raced tomorrow and the horse was ridden differently. This is the second time in a week that our selection has been detached last by lengths in a small field off a modest pace and it is hard to get those yards back! Both selections were sound but jockey errors cost us two points. Without being too emotional things are frustrating at the moment! (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for June 2011:Â -Â£1.00 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Thursday 2 June 2011
Selection: Marcus Augustus 6.00 Sandown is currently 4/5 best price guaranteed with Bet365 (09.15).
We got beat by a 25-1 shot not on our radar (bred for further). Our selection was backed from 4-5 to 4-6 and rallied late to take second place. Though today was not a great race this horse will win races. (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and loss for June 2011: -Â£2.00 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Friday 3 June 2011
At this moment in time Miss Lahar 7.30 Bath is currently trading at 1.92 ish with Betfair - should we get offered anything around 11/10 we will pounce. This looks nailed on (23.12 Thursday).
Looking at the qualifiers for tomorrow we should have at least three selections and all have conditions to suit, just need to get the value etc (23.36 Thursday).
Selection: Motivado 4.25 Musselburgh is currently trading at 8/11 best price guaranteed with William Hill and should win (08.52).
This horse was smashed into 1/2 and a disappointing second because after cruising into contention in the straight and looking a certainty he found a flat spot before running on powerfully to the line. Clearly he needs every yard of the 1m 4f plus race. (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£3.00
Selection: Hooray 4.50 Epsom is currently trading atÂ 10/11 best price guaranteed with Boylesports (09.07) completing a quick cross the card double for Sir Mark Prescott.
Once again we secured a great price as the filly was backed into 8/11. We were worried that after being keen early she did not get the lead and was racing off the rail but she battled on to land the spoils. Clearly the mile of The Guineas was too far but this 7f suits exactly. (WIN Â£0.91).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£2.09.
Selection: Miss Lahar 7.30 Bath is currently trading at even money best price guaranteed with William Hill and has our maximum faith (08.56). On 16 May we noted her late progress and looked a good thing in the grade and ground next time out over 6f. She will beat Balm again but that looks the forecast. Hughie Morrison takes his time with 2-y-o so we are not unduly worried about newcomer Mae Rose Cottage though the market is always worth a check.
Did not run her race. She got very worked up before the race and her chance was lost there. To compound matters she was too keen throughout the early stages and had nothing at the end of the race. This was not her true running and this was not the horse we saw at Windsor. (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£3.09
Saturday 4 June 2011
Selection: Carlton House 4.00 Epsom is currently trading at 3/1 best price guaranteed with William Hill (09.04)
We understand the injury scare but cannot believe the price that William Hill are offering, at the same time the horse is trading at 3.75 on Betfair.
Things did conspire against Carlton House but everyone has missed the main reason for its loss. In a race securing a pitch is so important. This part of race riding does not get the understanding it deserves as in American and Australia. Also our British jockeys do not have the clock. Some of them tell us because of our different type tracks it is no so important but it is a skill. If you do not understand sectional times how do you know what sort of race to give your horse?
Ryan Moore screwed the start and therefore his pitch! You cannot make the comparison that the winner came from further back to win so was the best horse because Carlton House needs to run closer to the pace. When adding the pre race factors the Queen's horse ran a brilliant race and proved it was tactically more versatile than the winner! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£4.09
Selection: Adlington 4.15 Musselburgh is currently trading at 11/10 with William Hill best price guaranteed (09.32).
Enjoyed watching Paul Hanagan v Phillip Makin in the saddle in this three runner race. Our selection went off at 10/11 and got the job done. (WIN Â£1.10)
Profit and Loss for June 2011: - Â£2.99 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Monday 6 June 2011
Selection: Close To The Edge 8.30 Pontefract is currently trading at 11/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.54).
Backed from 11/4 to 2/1 our run of seconds continued. She was slowly away losing two lengths and this probably costÂ her the race. The first two were well clear of the rest. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£3.99 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Tuesday 7 June 2011
Selection: Moone's My Name 3.55 Salisbury is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.11).
Once again our selection was heavily backed from 11/10 to 4/5 but was beaten by two better horses. Before the race we realised the filly had to beat the Henry Cecil gelding Emilio Largo and she was a borderline decision but the price appeared real value after looking at her last Newbury run compared to that of the winner's second place at Brighton. With several green newcomers in the race we were less concerned about the wide draw but this proved to be a slight negative as our horse ran without cover. With some early speed we hoped to secure a pitch with a bit of cover. Finally, the Beckett team thought she would win as they backed it. Hindsight tells us we got this one wrong. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£4.99 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Wednesday 8 June 2011
Selection: Hal Of A Lover 4.00 Beverley is currently trading at evens with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.48).
David O'Meara has found the key to this horse and there could be more to come when stepped back up in trip. Beat an ordinary lot and although a great fan of Sivestre De Sousa we had another selection detached last in a steadily run race. We had taken advantage of best price guaranteedÂ but perplexed as to the drift from Even money to 11/8. (WIN Â£1.37).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£3.62 (to a Â£1 level stake).
Thursday 9 June 2011
Selection: Miss Topsy Turvy 5.10 Nottingham is currently trading at 11/8 with William Hill best price guaranteed (09.06).
Available across the board at 11/8 so might be worth shopping around for 6/4 before placing bet...
Clearly things are conspiring against us at the moment as we endure our worst run in the 19 months we have been trading. Be assured the figures do NOT represent who we are! Please return to see how we deal with the situation.
Miss Topsy Turvy completely missed the start by 10 lengths and when getting into stride the gap was 16 lengths and her chance gone! We watched the re-run of the start twenty times and do not think the starter covered himself in glory! Almost with stupidity The Racing Post said that because 'there was not a frenetic paceÂ so it was disappointing she did not come with some sort of challenge in the straight'.Â Ye Gods! I urge the readerÂ to watch the race again and if you think they are remotely correct I will write a letter of apology to same! (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£4.62
Friday 10 June 2011
Selection: Grumeti 5.05 Sandown is currently trading at 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.01).
At last a race where our jockey got a pitch.Â Our selection was given an a text book ride (maybe went for home a few strides early) by Jamie Spencer. Yet again our horse was backed heavily from 6/4 to 11/10. In our 31 selections to date 28 have been supported and most of them heavily from our advised price in the morning proving that we are always finding value (only two drifted in betting).Â Our advised prices are not always the best prices but you can be relatively certain that the selection will start shorter than the morning price. My brother Richard waits for my selection so that he trades off just before the race and has a selection in the race with no stake liability! Anyway Grumeti continues to improve and you must be impressed with the wayÂ that the top weightÂ battled to the line. (WIN Â£1.50).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£3.12
Saturday 11 June 2011
Selection: Sea Moon 3.50 York is currently trading at Evens with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (22.35 Friday).
Backed into 4/6 the horse showed some of its potential and won. Ryan Moore claimed that this was the horse's first real race and that he will come on for the run. Looks like he still has a bit to learn and will need another decent race over a distance if he is to run in the St Leger. (WIN Â£1).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£2.12
Sunday 12 June 2011
There were no selections today because of a lack of information in The Racing Post and we could not activate the criteria that makes up the Pacafi Bet.
Monday 13 June 2011
There areÂ NO selections today. One horse did qualify for the Pacafi Bet but we decided to pull the plug on the selection because Ted Durcan rides it. Prince Sorrento 7.00 Windsor was a borderline decision but Durcan has failed on four out of four qualifying bets in the last 19 months. We cannotÂ depend onÂ him anymore and he has gone on ourÂ untrusty list.
Tuesday 14 June 2011
Selection: Frankel 3.45 Ascot is currently trading at 2/5 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (09.23).
Had the word soft not appeared in the going we would have selected Canford Cliffs to beat Goldikova inÂ the Queen Anne StakesÂ so we will just watch this race.
Disappointed that we did not select Canford Cliffs because this morning I was not sure of the going and had to leave the house, got back just before the race and was reliably informed that the conditions were perfect. This is one that got away, we had a small stakes win but would have swopped that for a logged winnerÂ on the site! Sigh!
Agreed totally with Willie Carson about the ride Queally gave Frankel - absolute and utter madness. Did Sir Henry Cecil tell him to ride the horse like that? Surely not! If that was my horse I would be livid! (WIN Â£0.40).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£1.72
Wednesday 15 June 2011
Selection: Shumoos 5.00 Ascot is currently trading atÂ 5/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (00.15).
Once again our selection was heavily backed into 6/5. Only just beaten by the Hannon team. Connections talking about 6f now but that is not the answer. We felt she did not quite repeat her HaydockÂ run and this was a hot race, she remains a very good filly. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£2.72
Thursday 16 June 2011
Selection: Transfer 4.45 Warwick is currently trading at 8/13 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.51).
Backed into 4/9 the handicap good thing hacked up by 5l (WIN Â£0.62).
Profit and Loss for June 2011: -Â£2.10
Friday 17 June 2011
Selection: Expose 9.10 Newmarket is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Thursday 23.03). This looks a good price to me - had this one at even money or even 10/11.
We got this one right and how! Expose was backed from 11/8 to 8/11 and romped home by three lengths. We think a lot about profiling a horse for a race and this was it. For the trial our selections are at an even stake but this had 'maximum faith' written all over it. (WIN Â£1.37).
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: -Â£0.73
We are looking at 2.45 Redcar race and might have a second selection...
Update: We were interested in the 'Pacafi Bet' qualifier Emperor Of Rome 2.45 Redcar but debutants John Louis and Sugar Apple look a bit tasty on breeding. The trainers of thoseÂ debutants are not in great form and that nearly tempted us to get involved but the price 0f 10/11 (could drift) is too short for the Emperor. We will watch this race (09.18).
This result hurts. Emperor Of Rome scattered the field by four lengths at 6/5. This is the problem with picking horses at 09.18 in that had we knownÂ about the bigÂ drift and lack of confidence inÂ of one of the debutants Sugar Apple our Pacafi Bet qualifier had only one horse to beat.Â In turn that might have tempted us more at 10/11 which was a tad short for us as we wanted 11/10. The horse started at 6/5 and we would have been on at that price! On a personal note we had a small bet at best price guaranteed but we want those winners onÂ this site. This is one that got awayÂ - sigh!
Saturday 18 June 2011
Selection: Margot Did 2.20 Ayr is currently trading at 11/10 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (00.55).
Once again our selection was backed and started at 10/11, more about prices later. We felt that the early pace was not quite fast enough for our selection but jockey Hayley Turner was seen to good effect riding out the finish on clearly the best horse. (WIN Â£1.10)
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: +Â£0.37
Review to date: Our selections have slightly underperformed from what we expected. A strike rate of something between 56%-60% was the target whilst par would have been about 54%. To date we have recorded a winning strike rate of 51% with 19 winners and 18 losers at an average price of 2.19 but there have been other factors that should raise interest.
We are currently showing a small profit for both months but it does haveÂ a flatlining look about it and not something to get excited about. It is worth repeating that most people who bet lose and the Pacafi Bet has not had a losing month in the 19 months of trials, the last eight of which can be independently verified!
To show the quality of the selections it is worth stating that 33 of the 37 have been placed with 19 winners and 10 seconds and four thirds (nearly 90%).Â Only on six occasions have we failed to beat the Betfair Starting Price regarding value and most times we have beaten it convincingly. Of those times when we have not beat BSP three selections have been about the same price after taking commission into account. Also, those six races provided three winners and three losers with only two drifting in price and losing. Hope that is not confusing but the main point is that we secure value and it is impossible to win from betting without it!
I would be quite happy to send my spreadsheet of the bets either on this trial or the one previously to those that are interested. We do not like the phrase 'bad luck' but we had a hiccup during this month and at one point were losing nearly five points but the Pacafi Bet makes incremental gains and clawed this back before edging in front. I am not sure I am allowed to talk about a progressive staking plan but it should be obvious there are no long losing runs with this strategy. To date our longest losing run is three and only Miss Topsy Turvy who lost 10 lengths from the stalls did not run her race this month. Last month only two failed to be competitive and it is worth reminding you of the high place percentage.
I am a relative novice when it comes to systems and strategies but there must be a forecast system within the Pacafi Bet as 29 of the 37 selections have finished first or second (nearly 80%) and this is something that has been inherent in previous results and testings. It might be worth chatting about this to Matt, meanwhile we will try and get our winning percentage up so please return and give us another look soon...
Monday 20 June 2011
Bilko Pak 4.00 Wolverhampton (Waiting for the bookmakers prices but we want about/close toÂ even money for this to be a selection 23.17 Sunday).
There isÂ NO selection today, the horse we considered is trading at 5/6 and we think it is an even money or 11/10 shot...
Glad we swerved Bilko, beaten a neck.
Tuesday 21 June 2011
There are no selections today, nothing has qualified for the Pacafi Bet.
Wednesday 22 June 2011
Selection: Pink Sapphire 2.10 Salisbury is currently trading at 4/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.06).
Backed from 4/6 to 4/11 meant yet another bet with no liability for those who trade off! Given a hands and heels ride from Richard Hughes there was never a doubt about the result. (WIN Â£0.67).
Profit and Loss for June to date: +Â£1.04
We have just replicated our June and May results exactly with 10 winners from 19 runners and a 53% strike rate. Also 17 from 19 were placed and virtually every selection was backed in the market. We are NOT complacent, we should be averaging 57% (our natural strike rate). Those next percentage points are where the profit is...
Thursday 24 June 2011
There are two qualifiers for the Pacafi Bet today but it seems unlikely we are going to get value. Kawssaj 2.20 Warwick and Striking The Wind 8.00 Hamilton are the target horses (06.51).
Update: Kawssaj 2.20 Warwick has opened up at 8/13 which is probably a fair price but has no value attached so is not a selection. With Mark Johnston muddying the water with two entries in the 8.00 Hamilton we haveÂ decided to not to wait for the price of Striking The Wind and there are NO selections today (08.28).
Friday 25 June 2011
Selection: Sim Sala Bim 8.50 Chester is currently trading at 7/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (09.06).
Thought it prudent to send a proviso regarding the selection of this horse. We are convinced this horse isÂ more than 5lbs ahead of the handicapper but as with the nature of Stuart Williams horses they tend to win when backed and run below par when not. Should the horse drift to 2/1 with the bookmakers his chance will be significanly reduced and I will be having a saver on the horse backed to beat it. Sim should love the ground. Ordinarily we do not get involved with horses with Stuart Williams but if the horse runs to its last race form then 7/4 is real value.
I readily accept the game is all about opinions, this is mine...
Saturday 25 June 2011
One tries not to let emotionÂ interfere with betting but confess to being narked about our selection yesterday! I am still trying to make sense of the race.
Without suggesting cheating our selection did not just drift, it drifted like the proverbial barge, going from the morning price of 7/4 to 7/2. Remember, this was for a horse who was way ahead of the handicapper (at least five pounds but probably eight or nine) and had the ideal ground. It had a progressive profile and was fit and looked the best horse in the race (I still believe that to be the case).
On Geegeez we did suggest that at the slightest hint of drift then get off and look to see who is being backed to beat it and that is what we did but we take no comfort from that!
Before giving this selection we knew the nature of the stable, we knew that William CarsonÂ had not ridden a winner at Chester in the last five seasons so why did we select it? Our eyes lit up when we saw the 7/4 offered because we had priced it at 5/4 and if the Williams money had come it would have probably been 10/11.
We will keep an eye on Sim Bala Sim but would suggest that perhaps a change of jockey might suit. In both the Windsor and Chester races Carson seemed to be in a bit of a mess and not in tune with the horse. It could be that I am talking nonsense because the horse was keen early and any jockey would have struggled but I would ask the reader to watch both races again and then decide.
One thing is for sure and that is we will never trust a Stuart Williams horse again regarding a Pacafi Bet irrespective of its chances. The bet is one of filtration and we shall be adding another screening category that takes into account these type of stables. There is plenty of racing so we do not have to get involved. The above sounds like sour grapes and it probably is, what's more it was a bad selection! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date for June: +Â£0.04
Selection: Deck Walk 7.55 Lingfield is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.59).
Our selection was very heavily backed from 4/5 to 8/13 but found absolutely nothing when asked. No explanation has surfaced and bitterly disappointing. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: -Â£0.96
Sunday 26 June 2011
Selection: Carlton House is currently trading at 6/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Saturday 17.11).
Not the horse I thought and not the horse Sir Michael Stoute thought (would love to know what he said to the Queen). After showing sparkle in training he was so flat in the race and it remains to be seen if this defeat was because of his exertions at Epsom. One doubts he will run over 1m 4f again. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: -Â£1.96
Two mistakes in three days fully acknowledged...
Monday 27 June 2011
Selection: Hidden Valley 2.30 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 2.10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.13)
The selection was backed into 8/11 from 11/10 and ran its race but beaten by a canny ride from Luke Morris who underlined his allweather brilliance. (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: -Â£2.96
Tuesday 28 June 2011
Selection: Vassaria 2.15 Hamilton is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.09).
Wins the races at 1/6 (WIN Â£0.50)
Selection: Circle Of Angels 3.45 Hamilton is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.13).
The selection looked all over the winner 2f out but was clearly holding back as if injured. The Racing Post said 'she flattened out' but that was surely not the case. Just watched the video again she is hurting and my guess is she will not run for a while - we will see. (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: -Â£3.46
Wednesday 29 June 2011
Selection: Coax 4.30 Catterick is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.23)
Steady in the market at 5/4 but it looked like it did not like the ground but has won on good to firm at Beverley. Had a similar look to another Johnston horse yesterday in Circle Of Angels.Â Coax clearly never ran to its form. It did stumble at the start so did he injure himself, looking for excuses here. Very puzzling and too bad to be true. Jamie Spencer looks in great form and he rode the winner. (LOSE Â£1)
Selection: Moustache 6.10 Chepstow is currently trading at 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.39).
The selection was backed into 1/3 and could only manage fourth place in a field of seven. Bitterly disappointing. (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss to date for June 2011: -Â£5.46
Thursday 30 June 2011
Selection: Justineo 2.40 Yarmouth is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.38).
Very heavily backed into 4/9 but beaten a head. The winner was slowly into stride and then raced on the outer so our horse looked to be beaten by a better horse. These two were six lengths clear of the third (LOSE Â£1)
Selection: Silverheels 3.00 Haydock is currently trading at 13/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.34).
The slow early pace did not help our selection, running on at the finish and beaten a neck. Backed from 13/8 to 8/11 (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for June: -Â£7.46
Ad absurdum - Iunius horribilis...
Friday 1 July 2011
Selection: Moone's My Name 2.10 Warwick is currently trading at evens with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.25).
From that draw on this course jockey Jim Crowley gave our selection the perfect chance. The weakness in the market was probably because of the draw, opened at even money and started at 5/4 with bigger prices available. Did notice a swish of the tail but she ran on to the line (WIN Â£1.25).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£1.25
Saturday 2 July 2011
Selection: Nahrain 4.15 Sandown is currently trading at 10/11 best price guaranteed with Boylesports best price guaranteed (00.22).
A real progressive sort. Great to be on at 10/11 as she started at 4/6 and did not give backers any cause for concern. Interesting to see how far she can go, certain to stay a little further. Handled the ground but had some knee action so we are upgrading the performance, might improve more for word soft in the going (WIN Â£0.91).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£2.16
There are no selections tomorrow. Nothing at Ayr to get one interestedÂ and nothing came close to qualifying for a Pacafi bet. Tried to get an angle on the German Derby but not able to make any sense of it and gave up! Will cheer on the Tom Dascombe horse Brown Panther though one winner from 34 does not bolster confidence!
Monday 4 July 2011
There are two qualifiers for the bet today but both at prohibitive odds with no value attached. For the record they are both trained by William Haggas, both in maidens over a mile and both ridden by Ryan Moore. They are Starbound 3.30 Brighton (1.54 on Betfair)Â Â and Blessed Biata 8.40 Windsor (1.23 on Betfair). We cannot select them, even if they both won we would not win a point so we will watch instead (08.01).
Both qualifiers won but we have no regrets as the prices were far too short!
Tuesday 5 July 2011
Selection:Â Lemon Drop Red 3.15 Wolverhampton is currently trading atÂ even moneyÂ with Bet365 best price guaranteed (21.37 Monday).
Interesting to hear William Buick say horse was versatile ground wise, everyone thought this horse needed some give, went on to say that although only won 1/2l there was more in the tank, should be competitive off 3lbs higher. We took even money and the horse started at 8/11 (WIN Â£1)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£3.16
WednesdayÂ 6 July 2011
Selection: Hidden Passion 2.40 Bath is currently trading at 8/13 wit Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.56).
The ground at Bath says firm - more like firm-hard so some horses will not like it. The sire of our selection won on firm and Brian Meehan has just one runner in day time racing (two at Kempton tonight) and this is Shane Kelly only ride at Bath. Wanted 8/11 really so long hard think about this one - just yes at the price. Worth remembering the selection was beaten about four lengths at Newmarket in Class 1 last time out. Today is Class 5.
Wins nicely enough, backed from 8/13 to 4/11 showing that we secured value even at that price (WIN Â£0.62)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£3.78
ThursdayÂ 7 July 2011
Selection: Submission 8.10 Doncaster is currently trading at 5/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (00.01).
Backed from 5/4 into 4/6 the Cumani horse continues to improve and she will surely win again. It is believed that a Â£60,000 bet was placed at 5/4 in the morning but Keiren Fallon showed no nerves in making the investorÂ a profit of Â£75,000. This was our fifth win in a row and tomorrow we look for a six-timer (WIN Â£1.25).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£5.03
Friday 8 July 2011
Selection: Poetic Dancer 3.25 Ascot is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.07).
Ran if something was amiss, lugged to her left for the whole race yet kept on one pace, disappointing as she had not used up her petrol. Just watched her previous win again on the same going and she ran straight enough then so not sure what happened this time. In theÂ Newbury race she had a horse either side of her so perhaps running on the outside of this small field did not help, she may be better withÂ cover Â (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£4.03
SaturdayÂ 9 July 2011
Selection: Discression 4.25 York is currently trading at 10/11 withÂ William HillÂ best price guaranteed (08.10)
Heavily backed and ran his race but was beaten by a better horse in debutant Ladys First and she looks very useful indeed. Our selection took a while to find his stride but did not do much else wrong (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£3.03
Sunday 10 July 2011
Ye Gods! There were six flat race fixturesÂ yesterday, two of which were atÂ night yet there is not one flat meeting anywhere in the UK today. Racing For Change please note. Consequently there are no selections today...
Monday 11 July 2011
Selection:Â Johnny Hancocks 6.20 WolverhamptonÂ is currently trading atÂ 11/10 with Betfred best price guaranteed (08.11).
I do realise that this horse has 36 starts on a racecourse already but I cannot find anything to beat itÂ at this moment in time...
Spent a lot of time on this race and looked at the entire history of every runner and no wayÂ could we have picked the winner. Paid Â£11.20 for a place so the trainer did not know either.Â Our selection was backed from 11/10 to 4/5 and beaten into second place. Should Royston French have got into a protracted battle up front? Not sure! Hard to take but take we will (LOSE Â£1).
Selection: Starlight Walk 2.20 Ffos Las is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.20).
Backed into 1/4 but finished lame - we think (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£1.03
Tuesday 12 July 2011
Selection:Â Miss Rosie 2.00 Beverley Â is currently trading at 9/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.19)
Given an exquisite ride by SDS. The selection was heavily backed from 9/4 to 13/8 but had to have the kitchen sink thrown at her to get up. This jockey is riding better than anyone else in the country at the moment and one that can ride different types of races (WIN Â£2.25)
Selection: Dixies Dream 3.10 Brighton is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.23)
The selection was backed into 4/6 form an opening price of 4/5 and given a competent ride from a jockey I cannot get right. He breaks a long run of losers for me (WIN Â£0.80)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£4.08
Wednesday 13 July 2011
Selection: Redvers 5.00 Lingfield is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Tues 20.58)
Young Harry Bentley kept things relatively simple to win. After being found a nice race to follow up his Bath win the selection was backed from 5/6 to 8/13. The trainer admitted he does not normally like to turn them out again so quickly but it was the horse's last chance to run in that grade. Redvers touched even money at one point and those who were on at that price must be feeling good this morning (WIN Â£0.83)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£4.91
Thursday 14 July 2011
Selection: Lightning Cloud 2.40 Leicester is currently trading at 11/8 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (07.42).
Backed from 11/8 to 11/1o and would have started at 4/5 if Phillip Makin rode. This is no disrepects to the baby-faced Amy Ryan who gave the horse a perfect ride.Â At the time of making the bet did not realise that a three-year old had not won this race in the last ten years - oops! After our Johnny Hancock bet should know better, always check the stats, if you still want to play then ok but check them first! We would have still made this bet though and especially at the price (WIN Â£1.37)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£6.28
Friday 15 July 2011
Desperate to kick on but alas there are no Pacafi Bets today. One qualified in Half A Billion 6.45 Hamilton but is too short for us at 4/11.
Saturday 16 July 2011
Despite there being five flat meetings in the UK today we do have not one single qualifier for our bet and this is very frustrating. We are already looking at Sunday and Monday racing.
Sunday 17 July 2011
Racing For Change continues to disappoint! Last week there wereÂ six flat meetings in the UK on Saturday and none on Sunday but this week they put things right by putting on one meeting on Sunday at Redcar after having five on Saturday, that should keep the public happy! Not!
Consequently there is not a Pacafi Bet because we have no races to choose from.
Monday 18 July 2011
Once again there is not a Pacafi Bet today, it is very frustrating!
Tuesday 19 July 2011
Selection: Susan Stroman 5.15 Yarmouth who is currently trading at 5/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.17).
The horse was supported from 5/4 to 6/5. This bet looked every bit a schoolboy error and maybe it was! We knew Ed Dunlop was only 4% at Yarmouth (his worse course stats) and the horse was racing back in distance from her previous win but factored into the bet were a couple of points we thought more relevant. When Jamie Spencer rode Susan Stroman to an impressive victory at Wolverhampton previously he had literally just stepped off a plane from America after a successful ride there, we wondered why he did that? After a ride in the first he waited until the last at 5.15 to reunite with this filly and we thought that significant. We were not worried about the undulations of theÂ course as the filly had been entered at Epsom prior. Then for reasons only known to Jamie he reverted to type and rode her last off a slowish pace knowing full well she stayed every inch of today's distance, in her previous race he had her up with the pace before running on to the line. We accept she was running over a distance short of her best and this looks a bad selection this morning (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for July 2011 to date: +Â£5.28
Wednesday 20 July 2011
Selection: Lady Jourdain 2.40 Catterick is currently trading at 4/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.25).
Backed from 4/6 to 4/9. Struggled around the bend but once hitting the straight she bolted up (WIN Â£0.67)
Selection: Gold Mine 4.30 Lingfield is currently trading at 2/1 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Tues 23.02).
Non-runners in this race so we were on 13/8 SP. Step up in trip proved successful and showed determined qualities (WIN Â£1.63).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£7.58
Thursday 21 July 2011
Selection: Tones 7.15 Epsom is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.58).
Backed from 4/5 to 2/5 but Rule 4 applied (WIN Â£0.40)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£7.98
Friday 22 July 2011
Selection: O'Gorman 2.00 Thirsk is currently trading at 8/13 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (09.12).
Backed from 8/13 to 4/9 and was available at 4/6 for large part of the day with Paddy Power but in any case was a great bet! I had been waiting for the reappearance of our selection since it was beat on debut and would haveÂ almost bet it blind. He has a Gimcrack entry and was backed into 5/4 favourite on debut against southern horses in a better grade race than the one today. Anyone who had seen the Doncaster race would have backed him today. This is aÂ decent horse and one to follow (WIN Â£0.62).
Profit and Loss for July 2011 to date: +Â£8.60.
Saturday 23 July 2011
Selection: CapeÂ Classic 7.20 Lingfield is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.01).
A little bit pleased with this selection. We gobbled up the 11/8 and that price was always way too big starting at 1/2. We had priced it at about 10/11 or 4/5. The last two selections have had real value attached and not just because they won! Had we not flown in the face of the statistics with Susan Stroman we would have nine winners from nine selections. Oops a little bit of hindsight there. Richard Hughes used the draw to get our horse nicely placed and was always in control. The horse gets 7f so when he went to the front we felt assured. Relatives of this horse have done well and half-brother Kings Apostle kept improving with age so Cape Classic ought to win more races (WIN Â£1.37)
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£9.97
Sunday 24 July 2011
Nothing qualifies for a Pacafi Bet today but we are already looking at tomorrow's racing. Our strike rate for July is an astonishing 74%. Despite selecting theÂ horsesÂ early in the morning (very early) nearly 90% of them shortened inÂ price proving that we find value and understand how to price up!
Monday 25 July 2011
There is no Pacafi Bet today.
Tuesday 26 July 2011
Selection: Croquemboche 2.10 Beverley is currently trading at 2/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and is almost impossible to oppose (08.46). Must confess we wanted 1/2 for value purposes and on this occasion the price looks about right. Ghalaa will have to be an above average filly to win this first time out.
Not quite what we expected but he got the job done and this takes us to 10 winners from our last 11 selections.Â Started at 4/11 and we were on at 2/5 so one of those rare occasions where we just wanted the win. We will be conscious not to give too many of these type of selections - we MUST have value with our bets! (WIN Â£0.40).
Profit and Loss for July to date: +Â£10.37
Wednesday 27 July 2011
Selection: Frankel 3.10 Goodwood is currently trading at 4/5 with William Hill best price guaranteed (00.01). What a race to savour?
What can I say that has not been said already? This horse gives me goose bumps -wow! (WIN Â£0.80)
Profit and Loss for July 2011 to date: +Â£11.17
Thursday 28 July 2011
There are no qualifiers for the Pacafi Bet today.
Friday 29 July 2011
Selection: Harbour Watch 3.45 Goodwood is currently trading at 5/6 with William Hill best price guaranteed (07.52).
Very rarely do we have the need of best price guaranteed but it helped today. We thought value at 5/6 but despite being heavily backed was allowed to go off at even money but we will take that! Sometimes information within the Racing Post is plain wrong or at least contradictory and this horse was a case in point! On the surface it said that the horse's form in its last race at Newmarket was ordinary but if you looked at the state of the track by the time the race was run and the winning time compared to the July Stakes you would see things differently! (WIN Â£1)
Profit and Loss for July 2011 to date: +Â£12.17
We have had 12 winners from our last 13 selections and now eight in a row! Since we discovered the Pacafi Bet our record wasÂ nine winners in a row - would be nice to beat that! We have completed three months of trials with Geegeez and will post a full review tomorrow.
Saturday 30 July 2011
We spent all last night looking at today's racing and could not find a good thing and again another hour and a half this morning. Of the two horses that caught our eye one had a bad jockey booking and the other one was too short in price so regretfully there is no Pacafi Bet today.
Review for May/June and July 2011:
There has been a few mistakes. One or two of the selections were not appropriate and we made the cardinal sinÂ of going outside of our criteria for the Pacafi Bet. These mistakes will not be made again. Â Had we adhered to our strict rules we would have still lost money in June but it would have been less than one and a half points. Also on a few occasions we placed a bet that met the criteria of the Pacafi Bet but where the stats were heavily against it and we need to address these sort of situations for the future. For example - where the trainer is in great form but thenÂ has the most terrible stats at a particular racecourse.
In the last nine months our Pacafi Bet has been trialled under the supervision of twoÂ trusted men in the business and shown a profit in eight of them, the last three under Matt Bisogno. In 20 months of trialling the bet has lost in one month, broke even in two and won in the other 17 months!
For July we not only recouped our losses for June but doubled the bank for that month (operating at level stakes and 10% of the original bank). In July we had 22 selections with 17 winnners giving us a strike rate of 77%. Equally important our selections shortened in price 18 times (most significantly so), two stayed at the same price and two drifted. Of those two drifters one went from evens to 5/4 and the other from 5/6 to evens but both won!
During the trial with www.geegeez.co.ukÂ we have given 70 selections of which 38 have won (54%) at an average price of 2.04 (net price and not always the best price). We have shown a profit of six points but it must be remembered these are at level stakes. We wanted to prove that it makes a profit to level stakes and it does, it always has. Because of our high strike rate with no long losing runs (worse run was four consecutive losers) a progressive stake plan wouldÂ normally be associated with a system/strategy like this!
The profit only tells part of the story because of those 70 selections 60 shortened in price and most of those significantly! Of the seven that drifted in price four of them won so no damage and were at best price guaranteed odds. Three of the selections started at the same price as advised in the morning!
In the next day or two I will politely ask Matt Bisogno to extend the Pacafi Bet trial to six months to complete a year of trials.Â He is an honest man that does not suffer fools and if he deems this trial is without merit we will accept his decision and pull the plug. Regarding the six-months trial previous to this one we gave 135 selections and picked 77 winners with a strike rate of 57% at an average price of 2.10.
We hope you stay with us a little longer and monitor our selections. In the last month or so we have strengthened the core of the bet and we are keen to test ourselves from here to see if we can make further gains. In the nine months of testing (including the severeÂ weather last winter and the going conditions that came with it)Â we have given 205 selections and nominated 115 winners with a strike rate of over 55% at average prices of 2.06 (net) and with the improvements made we are confident of adding to those percentage points if not the prices.
One final word on the prices. We select our bets early in the morning and take a price so making them available to the most people. These prices areÂ neither the best prices nor Betfair prices. We strike our bet when the market is immature confident in our ability to spot value (we price our selections the night before a race) and as our latest trial shows we beat the SP and BSP over 85% of the time making the bet a great tool to trade with.
Thanks for reading this quarterly review!
Monday 1 August 2011
There are no qualifiers for the Pacafi Bet today so there is no selection.
Tuesday 2 August 2011
Selection: Behlul 5.50 Southwell is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.32).
Either our selection massively under-performed or we misread the strength of form of its previous run at Southwell, it was probably a bit of both. The winner looks a muchÂ better horse but we were still uncomfortable with the alarming drift of our bet from 4/5 to 2/1. Found this one hard to swallow and not because it got beat, more because of its proximity to the second! (LOSE Â£1)
Selection: Code Cracker 2.00 Catterick is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.58).
Today we backed a Prescott horse and it lost and we took one on and it won. Had we seen our filly in the paddock before the race we would not have backed her and especially at 11/10. This is one of the risks of backing horses so early in the morning. She is well bred but looked lightly made and needs strengthening, probably better next year although the trainer might find a weak maiden race up north for her. Sanders tried to lead with her and in the torrential rain but she was found out. The two results hurt because we were not competitive in either (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for August to date: -Â£2.00
Wednesday 3 August 2011
Selection: Camberley Two 3.10 Pontefract is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (07.59).
Backed from 4/5 to 4/6 the selection never gave us a moment of worry (WIN Â£0.80).
Selection: Act Your Shoe Size 2.20 Newcastle is currently trading at 8/15 withÂ Victor Chandler best price guaranteedÂ and with Bedlam taken out of the race it looks value to me (10.59).
Our selection was backed into 4/9 and was expected to win but without being sure it looks like she did not act as well on the firmer ground (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for August 2011 to date: -Â£2.20
Thursday 4 August 2011
Selection: Hunter Forward 3.10 Haydock is currently trading at 8/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.24).
On this occasion we were not concerned about backing a mare against horses at odds-on in a handicap and she duly won. We were more impressed with the win given her profile than the Racing Post and this horse will be placed to get the hat-trick before going on to better things. (WIN Â£0.73).
Profit and Loss for August 2011 to date: -Â£1.47
Friday 5 August 2011
Selection: Furners Green 7.20 Tipperary is currently trading at 11/10 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (Thurs 23.36)
This is one that got away and so annoying that although it did not run it felt like a losing bet. We were on at 11/10 and feeling very pleased with ourselves. The horse was duly backed into about 4/7 then withdrawn, reason unknown at this point. Granted the price was helped with another non-runner but we had secured fabulous value and given the proximity of the second to the winner our selection would surely have won.
I could mention that because of our Irish selection we dropped Camberley Two (even though he qualified as a Pacafi Bet) who had been our selection a couple of days earlier and it looked in great heart. And of course the horse won! We felt we should have won two points on the day and won nothing - sigh!
Saturday 6 August 2011
Selection: O'Gorman 1.45 Haydock is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (07.43).
Have watched the race a few times now and refuse to believe that was his running. It is now true that his reputation is in advance of what he has produced on the course. The result hurt a little (LOSE Â£1)
Selection: Awjila 6.20 Lingfield is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.46).
The trainer found an easy race for our selection and did not have to run up to her debut form to win it. Backed into a short 2/5 showed what a great price we had secured (WIN Â£0.80)
Profit and Loss for August 2011 to date: -Â£1.67
Sunday 7 August 2011
Selection: Night Trade 2.45 Leicester is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.37).
Did not produce her last handicap run at Catterick on Tuesday but did enough to hang on and win over the extra furlong (WIN Â£0.80).
Profit and Loss for August to date: -Â£0.87
Monday 8 August 2011
There isÂ NO Pacafi Bet today though Dutch Heritage 6.00 Thirsk looks interesting at 2/1 with Bet365 bpg (08.56).
Backed into 5/4 and wins the races...
Tuesday 9 August 2011
Selection: Tiddliwink 7.45 NottinghamÂ is currently trading at 11/10 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (08.32).
Our price of 11/10 was a beauty. It started at 8/11 and about the price we had it the night before. Would have been 9lb worse off with the second in a handicap and we did not subscribe to the 'not as good on turf' argument' (WIN Â£1.10).
Selection: Caledonia Lady 6.00 Ffos Las is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.06).
We cannot explain this run at all (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for August 2011 to date: -Â£0.77
Wednesday 10 August 2011
A little frustrating today in that there are four or five horses we like and with the necessary profile but none of them qualify for the Pacafi Bet. They are discounted because of poor trainer form or jockey bookings!
Thursday 11 August 2011
Selection:Â Mashaaref 2.50 Newmarket is currently trading at 2/1 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (08.10).
Just like Furner's Green this was annoying. We spent a lot of timeÂ looking forÂ value, finding it and then nabbing it only to find the selection withdrawn prior to racetime. Our eyes lit up at the 2/1 on offer as we had priced it at 13/8 and that was the price it was before being pulled out of the race. It looks more than likely that we have missed three winners in the last week, all at good prices and totalling over five points of profit. Sigh!
Selection: Trumpet Major 4.00 Newmarket is currently trading at 4/5 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (08.17).
ThisÂ selection bolted up in a time faster than the older fillies in the preceding maiden. This son of Arakan was always moving well and this race looked like a piece of work. He was so impressive that he must be at least Group 3 standard - the only surprise is why it went off at 8/11 and not 4/7 or shorterÂ (WIN Â£0.80).
Profit and Loss for August 2011 to date: +Â£0.03
Friday 12 August 2011
There are no Pacafi Bets today or tomorrow or Sunday, back Monday...
Monday 15 August 2011
Selection: Dannios 5.20 Yarmouth is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (10.01).
We spent some time on this race and I mean time and got it right. Our selection was backed into 4/6 (small stable) and he won on the bit (WIN Â£0.80).
Selection: Native Colony 8.20 Yarmouth is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (10.10).
This horse had been backed in the morning and we were both surprised and concerned that it was allowed to go off at 10/11. Stayed on to win (WIN Â£0.91).
Profit and Loss for August 2011 to date: +Â£1.74
Tuesday 16 August 2011
We do not have a Pacafi Bet today.
Wednesday 17 August 2011
Selection: Seville 3.05 York is currently trading at 6/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.49).
Our selection was backed from 6/4 to 5/6 to the exclusion of all others including Sea Moon. In contradiction we knew before the race the horse had gone and was now over the top. Since then some of Aidan O'Brien's more fanciedÂ horses have also run poorly and we will leave the stable alone irrespective of claims (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for August 2011: +Â£0.74
Thursday 18 August 2011
Selection: Ghost Protocol 5.10 Epsom is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and cannot be opposed (08.16).
We could not believe the price of our selection starting at 4/6 and one of those rare times we benefited from best price guaranteed (WIN Â£0.67).
Profit and Loss for August 2011 Â£1.41
Friday 19 August 2011
There is no Pacafi Bet today.
Saturday 20 August 2011
This is really frustrating but once again there is not a Pacafi Bet today! There was only one qualifier and the horse has been overbet and absolutely no value.
Monday 22 August 2011
Selection; Galiando 7.50 Windsor is currently trading at 9/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Sunday 21.32).
Our selection started at 15/8 but was available at 5/2 and 11/4 just prior to the race but we thought 9/4 real value and was happy with that. We thought Jimmy Fortune was over confident coming from a mile back but he did not look worried and in the end he won well (WIN Â£2.25).
Profit and Loss for August 2011: +Â£3.66
Tuesday 23 August 2011
There is no Pacafi Bet today.
Wednesday 24 August 2011
Selection: Daffern Seal 7.00 Killarney is currently trading at 5/4 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (Tuesday 22.32).
First time since June we ventured an inch outside of criteria and got spanked, will never do that again! If there are no selections then there are no selections (LOSE Â£1).
Thursday 25 August 2011
Selection: Avon River 3.00 Lingfield is currently trading at 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.56).
Got on a regressive horse here, had so much in hand. Interesting to hear James Millman (who rode the winner) call our selection names! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for August 2011: +Â£1.66
Friday 26 August 2011
Selection: Deliberation 6.35 Hamilton is currently trading at 13/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.44).
The more I see of Julie Burke the more I like her. Granted she was on the best horse but have watched the race a number of times just to see how quiet she sits. She is a good rider! Backed from 13/8 to 5/4 (WIN Â£1.63).
Selection: Ted's Brother 5.50 Newcastle is currently trading at 8/11 with Betfred best price guaranteed (15.23). We were looking for 10/11 forÂ value this morning but the rain is going to hit Newcastle and this will improve his chances further, our guess is that it will start much shorter!
Loved the ground and won easier than the winning margin suggests (WIN Â£0.73)
Profit and Loss for August 2011: +Â£4.02
Wedesday 31 August 2011
We are about to enter our fifth month of trials with the Pacafi Bet.Â By now our claims of finding winners with a near 60% strike rate at average odds better then even moneyÂ have been proven. Please bear in mind that a previous public six month trial gave the exact same results. I am grateful for this particular trial because I have found strong and weak areas and have addressed the latter. Because of this I am convinced that we can find an extra two to three percentage points making the bet even more profitable!
It is early yet but since I had a bad six days in June there has been a different look about the results. During that bad spell IÂ reviewed and investigatedÂ every selection, only three actually met the criteria that we had set out for the bet - I gambled, lostÂ and then chased (the cardinal sin). That willÂ NEVER happen again! I have felt under pressure recently with a lack of selections coming through because the horses have not met the criteria but I have resisted watering down!
It is probably worth pointing out that this isÂ my first time under suchÂ public scrutiny and I am learning all the time how to deal with some new emotions and expectations. I never realised how much pressure there is in picking winners and being credible and althoughÂ I have shown some naivety at times, I have learnt much since the trial started in May. I am better for it and will get better still.
Since June we had two really good months for July and August and in 42 bets we had 29 winners at a strike rate of 69% winning over 16 points to level stakes. In 91 selections of the trial we have beaten the starting price 76 times (83%) and of the 12 that drifted six horses won so able to take advantage of best price guaranteed. This proves our point of being able to price up a race the night before and securing value, I know some back our selections safe in the knowledge they can trade out later in the day.
It is important to say that the prices we secure are good and come with value attached but are neither the best prices nor those offered by Betfair. The other relevant point is that we have displayed our resultsÂ to level stakesÂ - a progressive stake plan would have yielded significantly bigger profits! Try finding a system that makes profits at level stakes to starting price - it is almost impossible!
I am not sure how to display the results on Matt's site (the last time I tried pasting on this page I got into a right mess and got into trouble) but if you contact me I will attach them to an email. PleaseÂ contact me at firstname.lastname@example.org and I will post them the same day.
Once again I would like to thank Matt for allowing me to use www.geegeez.co.uk to proof my system and because I am conscious of his high standards it has made me act in a more professional manner (not there yet)!
Clearly the Pacafi Bet makes incremental gains, it does not lose money over a period. Apart from June it has made a profit in every other month in the last 20 and the Pacafi has been improved since then. Please follow my selections during September?
I have written this review off the cuff so to speak so apologies for not being a little tidier than it might have been as I am off to Kempton Races tonight (Friday).Â Al Mahmeyah 7.20 Kempton was a borderline candidate forÂ our Pacafi BetÂ but worried about Art Show amongst other things...
Thursday 1 September 2011
Selection:Â Firdaws 3.15Â Salisbury is currently trading atÂ 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.59). Cannot claim to have secured value on this occasion though we think she will win and then go on...
She was a short price and had a wide draw but she looked the business and so it proved. We actually took 8/13 with Victor Chandler though it was put up on the site at 4/7 but started at 2/5 so we did have value after all! Totally disagreed with the racing commentators who called the performance workmanlike! I have always been amazed how those involved in racing fail to understand the barrier of a wide draw. After the race Angus Gold told us that she had received a hefty bump that knocked her out of the stride and that has upgraded the performance as far as I am concerned (WIN Â£0.56).
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£0.56
Friday 2 September 2011
There is not a Pacafi Bet today. Had two borderline qualifiers but both look fragile.
Saturday 3 September 2011
Selection: All My Heart 3.50 Kempton is currently trading at 10/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.24).
If you get the chance to watch this race please do! The horse traded at 139-1 in running after being passed by two horses but rallied in the last 50 yards to get back up - a most enjoyable result. What a lovely attitude this filly has but will not back it again until she has a rest - entered on Friday at WolverhamptonÂ (WIN Â£0.80).
Profit and Loss for September 2011: +Â£1.36
Monday 5 September 2011
Another frustrating day as there are no Pacafi Bets. We have either paper traded or trialed this system for over 20 months now and have never known such few selections coming through - please bear with us.
Wednesday 7Â September 2011
Selection: Thespis Of Icaria 5.40 Uttoxeter is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.49).
Gave AP McCoy his 100th winner. Always hard for a bumper to win with a penalty but this one did it easily enough despite real support for the second Court In Session. The stable (Martin Keighley) fancied their chances of beating our selection and though it looked every inch a chaser in the making it must win a bumper based on this run and the stable money (WIN Â£0.50)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£1.86
Thursday 8 September 2011
Selection: Map Of Heaven 3.10 Chepstow is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.49).
Scooted clear to win by 16l, love em like that! We actually thought we had not secured real value at 8/11 (before we saw the going conditions) but she started at 2/5 albeit with a Rule 4 of 10p in the Â£ (WIN Â£0.66).
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£2.52
Friday 9 September 2011
Selection: El Greco 3.20 Sandown is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.30).
Just to say we have not withdrawn into our shell regarding the price of the selections but there are such few opportunities for our Pacafi Bet at the moment. The prices are short but they are winning (six in a row now and 12 from the last 15). We wanted 4/5 for El Greco today and confess to taking a shorter price than we wanted. We would not have taken anything shorter as the John GosdenÂ Shantaram worries us a tad. We do not want to compromise the bet so please bear with us regarding the amount of selections and their prices. Thanks...
Just watched El Greco's race and the horse was not quite as good as we thought. Had Shantaram been ridden by a top jockey he surely would have won and is the horse to take out of the race. Our chap was backed at 8/11 into 4/7 and expected to win, given able ride but came up shortÂ (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£1.52
Saturday 10 September 2011
Selection: Sea Moon 3.10 Doncaster is currently trading at 2/1 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Ladbrokes are going 2/1 as well). This price seems huge to me and I fear I have missed something, there is even some rain about that will help further. We thought 5/4 and 11/8 tops was a proper price (20.59 Friday). WeÂ placed a small bet on William Hill and then went for another bet but the site appears frozen. For the sake of this bet we will take 2/1 with Ladbrokes and not best price guaranteed, let's face it should Sea Moon drift then the horse has had a setback. So we are on at 2/1 with Ladbrokes (21.07 Friday)...
The William Hill website is now working normally and 2/1 best price guaranteed is available again (Friday 22.17).
The rain never materialised and the going was good to firm so this explained the drift we think - but on a big sweeping course that lends itself to fairness and the best horse winning our jockey decided to find the only pocketÂ of trouble there was. We are not saying our selection would have won but he would have come second and got close to the winner. Why did Stoute feel the need to get a French jockey for Doncaster? Hope our comments are not being made from our pocket but it is something that surprises me enormously! Yes, I did know that piece of information before I placed the bet but thought that was factored into the price! Please note that we have given said jockey Olivier Peslier the chance to redeem himself tomorrow but on a French course and a French horse and a smaller field? (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£0.52
Sunday 11 September 2011
Selection: Galikova is currently trading at even money with William Hill best price guaranteed (Saturday 22.00).
Does the business and wins the race. Peslier is partially forgivenÂ (WIN Â£1)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£1.52
Monday 12 September 2011
Selection: Go Dutch 2.00 Brighton is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.29).
Loved the conditions and scooted clear (WIN Â£0.50)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£2.02
Tuesday 13 September 2011
Things remain a bit slow at the moment and there are no selections today. We are approaching our 100th bet regarding this trial (98 so far). One more winner from the next two selections will give us a 57% strike rate and our feeling is that we could have done a little better - we have learnt loads over the past few months and cannot wait to put that experience to good use over the next 100 bets...
Wednesday 14 September 2011
Selection: Electrician 2.10 Yarmouth is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.24).
Opened up at 11/10 and backed into 8/11 and bolted up. Won the race a long way from home (WIN Â£1.10)
Selection: Modeyra 3.10 Yarmouth s currently trading at 7/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.23).
Opened at 2/1 and backed into 6/4 but beaten into second place - not quite as good as we thought she might be (LOSE Â£1)
ThisÂ selection represented our 100th bet on the trial. In our opening address we talked about our 57% strike rate on the previous six month trial and lo and behold we replicated that figure here. Of course that figure only tells you one side ofÂ the story. In our last three months we have been improving and the strike rate for July, August and September is 68% and despite selecting the horses first thing in the morning we beat the SP 86% of the time...
Sister Andrea 3.55 Yarmouth is currently trading at 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.20).
This was disappointing and although we have not watched the race yet Shane Kelly had this horse out the back last early on. We will watch the race before further comment but suffice to say it came from last to second after being backed from 6/4 to 5/4. Must confess we thought she would start at less than even money if she were to win (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for Septmember 2011 to date: +Â£1.12
Thursday 15 September 2011
Selection: Passionada 3.00 Pontefract is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.20).
Enjoyed this one! We were happy with 11/8 (though the step back in distance concerned us) but after being alarmed with the price drifting we happily banked the 2/1 best price guaranteed. As you know by nowÂ it is not often a selection of ours drifts so when a Brucie Bonus comes along we are grateful! We think this horse will run over 6f next time out and will be placed to win again (WIN Â£2).
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£3.12
Friday 16 September 2011
Selection: Harvard N Yale 3.45 Newbury (just waiting for 4/5 to become available. Bet365 are offering 8/11 at the moment, will take this price if Boylesports or William Hill do not offer better 08.22). Decision shortly...
Update: We have taken the 8/11 with Bet365 (09.01) though do not claim value, it is about the right price - we think...
Not sure about the ride given to our selection by George Baker (who we love -normally). Should have kicked on when going so well, we knew he would stay an extra furlong if he had too! This one hurt a little, feel we were on the best horse but lost, hope this is not my pocket speaking! Second time tactics were wrong with this horse in three runs (LOSE Â£1)
Selection: Silke Top 5.15 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 5/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (11.28).
Another second, we have had five winners and four seconds in our last nine bets, not been able to view the race to date (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£1.12
Saturday 17 September 2011
Selection: Deacon Blues 3.40 Newbury is currently trading at 7/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Friday 23.20).
Got this one spot on! Knew he would handle the 5f on these conditions and Frankie was a great booking for this horse. We had 2/1 but 7/4 registered, priced him up at 11/8 so pleased! Started at 5/4 and our confidence is growing daily about pricing up horses the night before (WIN Â£1.75)!
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£2.87
Monday 19 September 2011
There are no Pacafi selections today.
Tuesday 20 September 2011
Selection: Billyrayvalentine 2.20 Folkestone is currently trading at 8/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.04). Frankie Dettori riding for George Baker and his only other ride is in the last race...
As per the Deacon Blues win on Saturday we visualised this race almost exactly. Our selection was nominated at 8/11 which was big and started at 4/9. We took on the draw bias at the course because we knew what we had in hand, enjoyed this result more than most (WIN Â£0.73)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£3.60
Wednesday 21 September 2011
There is not a Pacafi Bet today, did not have a single one close to meeting the criteria...
Thursday 22 September 2011
Selection: Rythmic 3.05 Pontefract is currently trading at 6/4 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (09.03).
We refuse to believe this was her run and look no further than her jockey for this disappointment. All we ask of a jockey is to do their homework, put their horse into the race and do their best. This was not a good ride 0/3 (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£2.60
Friday 23 September 2011
Selection: Lyric Of Light 3.00 Newmarket is currently trading at 2/1 with Bet365 best price guaranteeed (Thursday 19.44).
We have witnessed both ends of an evolutionary riding scale in the last 24 hours. This horse could not or was notÂ helping Frankie yet he got her home - what a difference a jockey makes? Bigger prices were available than our 2/1 (WIN Â£2)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£4.60
Saturday 24 September 2011
Selection: Yasir 5.25 Ripon is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.06).
When we saw the jockey booking for this horse we thought to ourselves 'Seb will not have this one out the back, he will be busy and have him handy to use his finishing kick.' What happened - Seb Sanders had him out the back, came with a rattle from a long behind, appeared to get nose in front before the other horse rallied to get back up.Â We are suffering at the moment with the rides our horses are receiving and I do not believe that is my pocket talking! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£3.60
Sunday 25 September 2011
Selection: Akeed Mofeed 4.20 Curragh is currently trading at even money with William Hill best price guaranteed (Saturday 23.11).
Not making excuses but the ground turned up heavy and not yielding. Did not factor that into the selection and perhaps I should. We knew sire liked soft and perhaps at even money we stretched our opinion after seeing its maiden win. Still believe he is much better than the winner but back to back losers (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£2.60
Monday 26 September 2011
There is not a Pacafi Bet today. Just a quick moan before moving on. We are really disappointed with September figures, feel we have not made any real mistakes but have come up a little short. In our last 11 selections we have had six second places and four winners and the difference of just two of them winning transforms the landscape significantly! Some of the rides our horses are having have defied logic especially when jockeys are content to be last or near last off a slow pace. Can anyone explain this to me please, I must be missing something? This not a popular thing to say but I genuinely believe that even some of our better jockeys do not have the American or Australian clock in their head. When I lived in Australia a jockey would be pulled inÂ front of the stewardsÂ for riding out the back off a slow pace if the horse had not done or needed that previously. Also they take a dim view of those travelling five and six wide for a period of time when there are only seven or eight runners in the field, in this country, Jim McGrath apart our commentators do not even recognise the fact. Rambling a bit - apologies...
Tuesday 27 September 2011
Selection: Dare To Dance 4.40 Ayr is currently trading at 4/5 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Monday 19.29).
This had to be a fabulous price given the circumstances. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was nervous as a kitten with his horse on Saturday trying to make contact with his owner in Australia on whether to run on that day (fast ground) and risk wasting a bullet. The horse was clearly ready to do himself justice.Â Today's raceÂ was Â£6,146 to the winner but also a continuation of progress for the horse and he was not knocked around. Not watched the race yet but eased down at the finish and the word 'comfortably' widely used by the commentators and media (WIN Â£0.80).
Profit and Loss for September 2011 to date: +Â£3.40
Wednesday 28 September 2011
We were desperate to kick on for this month but there is not a Pacafi Bet today, none met our criteria. Already looking at the racing for tomorrow...
Thursday 29 September 2011
Selection: Elite 4.30 Wolverhampton is currently trading atÂ 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.37).
Not what we thought and looks a bad selectionÂ yet she had ticks in all the boxes, stunned (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for September 2011: +Â£2.40
Saturday 1 October 2011
Selection: Principal Role 4.45 Newmarket is currently trading at 4/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Friday 22.36).
Selection: Encke 4.10 Newmarket is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.07).
Both our Pacafi Bets won and gives us a decent start for October. For the first time we had six horses qualifying for the Pacafi Bet but we only picked what we considered was our best two (five of the six won). We are thinking about the word bravery this morning and confess to being slightly overwhelmed with so many opportunities on one day!
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: +Â£1.40
There is not a Pacafi Bet today.
Monday 3 October 2011
Selection: Avon River 4.00 Windsor is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.32).
This was not Richard Hughes best ride. Only he knows why he rode the horse differently today, let a horse his inferior steal a march before rattling home beaten a head (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October to date: +Â£0.40
Tuesday 4 October 2011
Selection: Repeater 3.40 Leicester is currently trading at even money withÂ Boylesports at best price guaranteed (07.52).
It gets worse! A three-horse race over a 1m 2f jockey Seb Sanders puts Repeater into a pocket and stays there too long. The outsider of the three, as expected, comes back into his lap and a valuable length and momentum is lost before the selection rattles home to get beat a short-head. Both our selections this week have been by far the best horses but given poor rides. There is nothing we can do about that! October should be showing us four wins from four rides and a 3.5 profit, we are now showing a half point loss. We have suffered the last month or so because of poor rides and that is not bias. Eight second places in the last 15 selections have held us back somewhat.
Looking at the racing for Wednesday it looks like trainers are just getting runs into their horses. This is the silly season for Flat racing now and I cannot find a winner yet alone value in a single race today. There is no bet today.
Message for Matt is that our horse Gurtacrue runs on Sunday over three miles at Ffos LasÂ and should get the going he wants in his first novice chase. Been crying out for a distance. I shall go and watch him. Will give my thoughts on this race prior.
Thursday 6 October 2011
Selection: Mauritino 4.20 Exeter is currently trading at even money with William Hills best price guaranteed (01.12).
Selection: Never Perfect 2.10 Ayr is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.22).
Both our selections won although we suffered a Rule 4 with Never Perfect. Trainer seemed genuinely disappointed with that one despite the easy win though we thought it a great run in the conditions. We will now upgrade that performance and put him in our little black book.
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: +Â£0.98
Selection: Madamlily 2.40 Hexham is currently trading at 7/4 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (10.08).
The mare was heavily backed from 7/4 (missed 2/1) to even money but could not quicken on the run-in. Thought she was a little better than that, looks like we were wrong as she enjoyed the run of the race and given every chance. Was it a good bet or a bad bet? Not sure but betting suggested she would win, on this occasion we will not beat ourself up (LOSE Â£1). Sense we are about to hit a wave, could be a good time to follow us...
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£0.02
Sunday 9 October 2011
Selection: Royal Reveille 3.30 Limerick is currently trading at even money with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (08.49). This price looks big to us, appreciate the worry about the ground...
Boy, were we right about the price? Bolted in and started at 4/6 (WIN Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: +Â£0.98
Monday 10 October 2011
Very frustrating that despite three Flat meetings today there is not a Pacafi Bet today!
Tuesday 11 October 2011
The frustration continues, three horses caught our eye but none of them met the criteria of the Pacafi Bet.
Wednesday 12 October 2011
Selection: Deceptive 8.10 Kempton is currently trading at 5/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.04).
Not sure how this horse got beat, she had the run of the race and was cruising but folded late in the race, we think the race came too soon (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£0.02
Thursday 13 October 2011
Selection: Captain Dash 3.20 Wincanton is currently trading at 1/2 with William Hill best price guaranteed (00.01).
Drifted yet still won at 10/11 (WON Â£0.91)
Selection: Light Wells 2.30 Brighton is currently trading atÂ 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.25).
Did not act on the course, never a chance (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£0.11
Friday 14 October 2011
Selection: Mince 3.00 Haydock is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.37).
Beaten a nose but beaten (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£1.11
Saturday 15 October 2011
Selection: So Wise 8.30 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 5/2 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.45).
This horse won a few days later in a better class race at 8/1, that's horseracing!
Selection: Yourinthewill 6.00 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 9/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.54).
Not happy with the shenanigans in this race! Got stitched up. True To Form was available at 6 and 7/1 early in the morning got backed into 6/5 fav. Our selection who had the form drifted from 9/4 to 6/1 at one point (started at 9/2). That is only part of it. Eddie Ahern then rode a dummy race on our horse, fizzing it out (LOSE Â£1). The selection was a bad one however!
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£3.11
Monday 17 October 2011
Selection: Blanc De Chine 2.30 Windsor is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.48).
Had every chance, just came up short but at least we had a run for our money (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£4.11
Tuesday 18 October 2011
Selection: Shallow Bay 2.40 Exeter is currently trading at even money with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (Mon 21.32).
Given a passive ride by Tom Scudamore, got beaten by a more aggressive ride, not a better horse (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£5.11
Wednesday 19 October 2011
Selection: Escort'Men 2.50 Fontwell is currently trading at 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.08).
Still in denial! Watched the race many times and do not believe the result. How did this one get beat. This month has been wretchedÂ but only made one real mistake (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£6.11
Thursday 20 October 2011
Selection: Good Authority 8.40 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 11/10 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (08.26).
Stopped the rot with a lovely ride from Darryll Holland albeit on the best horse, backed into 8/11 and should follow up shortly (WIN Â£1.10)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£5.01
Saturday 22 October 2011
Selection: Master Minded 3.30 Aintree is currently trading at 1/2 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.31).
Still not sure what to make of this run, I know the horse ran flat and was not confident at any stage yet it was backed and expected (LOSE Â£1)
Selection: Shirocco Star 4.20 Newbury is currently trading at 13/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.47)
At last a piece of good fortune. Drifted like the proverbial barge to 3/1 but still won (WIN Â£3).
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£3.01
Monday 24 October 2011
Selection: Colombian 3.00 Leicester is currently trading at 5/6 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (08.10).
Still convinced this is a decent horse despite defeat and we will not give up on him. Not sure if it was the ground or the long season that beat him today. Won his maiden on fast at Chester but every commentator said he did not want to put himself down. We were worried about the Godolphin winner but will take this one on the chin (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£4.01
Tuesday 25 October 2011
Selection: Well Hello There 3.10 Chepstow is currently trading at 7/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed (00.14).
Had a good think and look about this race now and conclusion is that this was a bad bet and the second one of the month. It was supported but if it was going to win the stable would have made sure if was evens or odds on and not 6/4. I never get involved with this trio and cannot explain why I did this time - I have never caught them right. Argghhh! (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£5.01
Having a terrible October and looking to get out with damage limitation. Annoyed with myself because I know it is the worst month of the year to bet and got dragged in with a couple, made worse by missing a couple that I had earmarked on the same day that qualified for the bet but I thought were too short. A case of minus two points versus plus 1.35 and a difference of 3.35 points.
Wednesday 26 October 2011
Selection: My Brother Sylvest 5.05 Haydock is currently trading at 7/4 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (23.28 Tuesday).
Given a positive ride, never a doubt, just as we like them.Â Backed into 11/8 (Won Â£1.75)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£3.26
Thursday 27 October 2011
Selection: Fascinating 8.00 Kempton is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.15).
Grabbed 11/8 and started 4/6 and bolted in (WIN Â£1.37)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£1.89
Selection: Doeslessthanme 2.00 Fontwell is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.41).
Really interested in the Wylie - Nicholls partnership this year, bound to be a source of winners. Backed into 4/6 (WIN Â£0.91)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£0.98
Selection: Snowed In 6.00 Kempton is currently trading at even money with Boylesports best price guaranteed (08.44).
Beaten a neck after being heavily supported.Â Just missed out on landing the treble Â (LOSE Â£1)
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£1.98
Do not feel we are chasing today as I like these three bets. Really interested in the Paul Nicholls and Graham Wylie combination, do not know why the latter stayed so long with Howard Johnson. Bet you Nicholls beats the 19% strike rate of the previous pairing by more than a bit. Any thoughts on that Matt?
Friday 28 October 2011
Selection: Purple 'N Gold 5.40 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.36).
We cannot claim value in our bet today, we had been waiting for and wanted 4/5 but we think he will win over this course and distance...
Best horse in the race but weak in the market, Matthew Davies riding instead of someone else, allowed winner uncontested lead then rattled home when race finished, sigh. Was a borderline decision with Davies riding but thought this race uncomplicated as long as horse kept close tabs on pace. Believed we had value at 8/11 but SP makes a nonsense of that claim. Still do not know if it was a good bet or bad one, we lost so it must have been a bad one!
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£2.98
Saturday 29 October 2011
Selection: Ecliptic 2.05 Newmarket is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.24).
Realise that 5/4 has been available last night but unable to get to the computer to post (do not possess Blackberry type thing and even if I did would not know how to use it). Cannot resist selecting this one after last run.
Ran flat and produced his worst run, must have been the bounce factor (LOSE Â£1).
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£3.98
We will have a long look at our six-month trial on Tuesday morning. Our initial thoughts are that we have slightly under-performed though there are lots of positivies to take from the trial. We need to make one thing clear and that is the bet doesÂ NOT lose money (and how many systems or strategies can say that?) but the gains have been a little too incremental. There have consequences to the trial and I look forward to sharing those with you. Anyway, more about that Tuesday. We will publish the review before 11am.
Sunday 30 October 2011
Selection: Notus De La Tour 1.40 Carlisle is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.52).
Nice to sign off with two easy winners and this was the second of them. Made all and never in doubt. Nicholashayne to Carlise with a Pipe horse said it all and grabbed value (WIN Â£0.73)
Selection: Koup De Kanon 1.10 Carlisle is currently trading at 6/4 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (09.04).
Once again secured value, in from 6/4 to 6/5 (WIN Â£1.50).
Pleased to have repaired the damage for October, we were down over six points at one stage.
Profit and Loss for October 2011 to date: -Â£1.75.
Monday 31 October 2011
Today we considered picking a horse at 7/4 or more to give us a chance of breaking even or finishing up but in all honesty it would not have been a Pacafi Bet. Judiciary 12.50 Plumpton looks a winner but is too short for us and if Somersby 3.10 Kempton is fit should beat the Nicholls horse and both qualified as a bet but neither of those would put us in front nor represents value. We have decided there is no Pacafi Bet today. We have already started the review of the trial and willÂ give our thoughts on it later today and not tomorrow as originally intended.
The Pacafi Bet Trial Review
Since May 2011 we have given 142 selections to www.geegeez.co.uk of which 75 have won (67 losers) at a winning strike rate of 53%. The average losing run was two and the average odds of all bets have been 2.11. The longest losing run was six and the longest winning run was seven. There were four winning months and two losing months. During this time the Pacafi Bet returned a net profit of 10.63 points.
All results are shown at level stakes. A considered staking plan would have yielded much higher gains and it is important to note that the prices taken on selections were neither the best price available nor Betfair prices!
The selections were either given the night before racing or early in the morning (rarely later than 9am) before any betting patterns were known. This showed and provedÂ our expertise in gaining value and understanding how to price up a race. Of those 142 selections we secured better value thanÂ the Â SP on 114 occasions (80% of the time). On 19 occasions the price drifted (most very slightly, for example 10/11 to evens is considered drift for the purposes of this explanation) and nine times it stayed at the same price. Of those 19 drifters nine of the selections won showing the nominations to have been sound despite fluctuations in the betting market. Those who like to trade-off would not have lost money using the Pacafi Bet method.
Of the 67 losing bets 29 horses came second meaning we picked either the first or second 104 times (73%) from the original 142 selections.
Within these figures there have been mistakes. We have got involved in a couple of handicaps that carried warning signs and backed one too many females against males. One or two bets were made emotionally (something not quite conquered - if it ever is) with the consquent loss adding more pain but we have improved our general all round play dramatically during this trial.
Regarding the six-month trial with www.geegeez.co.uk our conclusions are that we slightly under-performed to what we had envisaged but that was down to a horrible June (our favourite month normally) where we ventured outside the criteria of the Pacafi Bet, something that will NEVER happen again! We had promised a strike rate of 57% butÂ delivered 53% but would urge the reader to look at the results in their entirety to gauge the true value of the bet (results available on request).
Since we launched our own website the www.theracinghorse.co.ukÂ in July 2011 the figures have improved significantly. From 94 selections we have given 54 winners (57%) and showed a net profit of almost 17 points.
Our confidence is such that we know we will not lose money over a small time period because of the soundness of our selections. Our self-belief is now much higher than before the start of the trial and we feel able to operate more professionally thus looking to build on the above figures. Our winning strike rate target for the near future is closer to 60% at average odds of over 11/10 and we believe that is deliverable within the present structure of the Pacafi Bet.
As a consequence to this six-month trial and the one prior to this we have gathered loads of data which in turn has excited us. Because we have found winners using the strict criteria of the Pacafi Bet we have been able to identify poor/vulnerable favourites and we are absolutely sure that there is a 'lay system' at the opposite end of the bed! First impressions suggest that once six boxes have been measured using relative negatives the weak favourite highlights itself as a lay bet.
I would like to thank Matt once again for allowing me to use his site for the trial of the Pacafi Bet. It has aided my confidence and I am now certain this bet will continue for years to come. In nearly two -years of trialling the bet shows it makes incremental gains to level stakes and once a staking plan is attached to it then much better than that!
My hope is that I will work close to Matt in the future as I share his philosphies on horse racing and especially when trying to help the average punter win. Thank you to those who have read my comments...
Wednesday 2 November 2011: After speaking to Mattt he has agreed that I may have another three-month trail on his site. In that time I hope to raise the bar both in strike rate and professionalism. We will start back here tomorrow...
Thursday 3 November 2011
Our trial with www.geegeez.co.uk has been extended for another three months. This gives us another chance to fine-tune our bet before we release it to the general public next year. We have increased our target strike rate to something closer to 60% (it is currently at 57% on my website but 53% within the previous trial). We are more professional than when we started and this will help raise the bar. Also we have indentified a weak area within our system/strategy and removed it.
Selection: Red Lover 5.00 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.43).
Best horse in the race but badly needed this run, blew for ages after the race. Needs further by the looks and not a great start to our extended trial. LOSE Â£1
Selection: Even And Odds 7.00 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.50).
Still digesting this result, knew we had second and third favourite covered but 40/1, 14/1 and 20/1 filled first three places. LOSE Â£1
November profit and loss: -Â£2.00
Friday 4 November 2011
Selection: Secret Circle 8.10 Churchill Downs is currently trading at 11/10 with William Hill best odds guaranteed (08.22). Accept there is a worry about the weather and the consequent ground/conditionsÂ but this looks a great price to me!
Could not believe that price! Betfair SP paid 1.69Â and Â£1.40 on Tote. Yet to watch the race and some say Shumoos was unlucky, whatever! WIN Â£1.10
Update: Watched the race and the best horse won!
November profit and loss: -Â£0.90
Saturday 5 November 2011
Selection: Silviniaco Conti 2.15 Wincanton is currently trading at 11/10 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (08.22).
Once again lovely value with this bet. Backed into 8/11 and looked to be headingÂ shorter than that for a while. I know only two finished but thought he jumped really well for a five-year old, will get three miles and more to come. WIN Â£1.10
November profit and loss: +Â£0.20
Sunday 6 November 2011
There is no Pacafi Bet today.
Monday 7 November 2011
There is no Pacafi Bet today.
Tuesday 8 November 2011
Selection: Authentic Act 3.30 Sedgefield is currently trading at 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (00.24).
We thought the horse had been freshened for this race and had targeted it but it clearly needed the run, looks a bad bet this morning! Drifted from 6/4 to 9/4 in a poor race. First time we have backed a Todhunter horse - might be the last!
November 2011 profit and loss: -Â£0.80
Wednesday 9 November 2011
Selection: Auden 4.50 Kempton is currently trading at 13/8 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (Tuesday 22.53).
Looks like the bounce factor kicked in and something we will avoid in future. LOSE.
Selection: Wicked Wench 1.00 Southwell is currently trading atÂ 4/6 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (08.45).
Thought this one would start nearer 4/7 than 4/5 but we will take it. WIN Â£0.80.
November 2011 profit and loss: -Â£1.00
Thursday 10 November 2011
Selection: Fairyinthewind 4.20 Kempton is currently trading at 7/4 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (08.02).
Once again we believed this filly would be backed into about 5/4 or even 11/10 given her profile but started at 2/1. Bolted up. WIN Â£2
Selection: Hes Our Lad 2.10 Taunton is currently trading at 10/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed (10.18). JustÂ missed 19/20 with Victor Chandler. Has not quite met the criteria ofÂ Pacafi BetÂ but one of those rare occasions when using artistic licence...
We had looked long and hard at his three rivals and thoughtÂ none of themÂ could win but one improved sufficiently to win this poor race. LOSE.
November profit and loss: Â£0.00
Friday 11 November 2011
Selection: Press Baron 6.15 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.22).
Between two and nominated the right one. WIN Â£1.50.
November profit and loss: Â£1.50
Monday 14 November 2011
Most frustrating but there is not a Pacafi Bet today...
Tuesday 15 November 2011
Selection: Bears Affair 2.00 Folkestone is currently trading at 1/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.47).
The bet was for a clear round, got to the third. LOSE
November profit and loss: +Â£0.50
Wednesday 16 November 2011
Selection: Shieldmaiden 3.20 Lingfield is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.27).
I have just received a message saying that at 09.27 the price for Shieldmaiden went from 10/11 to 5/6 with Bet365. Normally we back the horse, then after our blog entry here we dummy click again, to make sure the prices are still available but I am not sure if I did it this time, we might not have. Anyway for arguments sake the price of 10/11 is still available with Boylesports and Paddy Power best price guaranteed so we hope this satisfies. There was no attempt at nicking a bit of price (10.15)...
Did not see the race but told that Shieldmaiden broke loose, do not know how much she lost through that but probably took the edge off her at least. Came again in determined fashion but harder to place her now. Entered again at this track on Saturday and not sure it suits front-runners, confused with Mark Johnston's planning but I guess he knows best. LOSE.
Selection: Philharmonic Hall 3.40 Hexham is currently trading at even money with Stan James (not bpg 09.43). If this horse is going to win I expect it to shorten and not drift so a rare occasion when we do not back best price guaranteed!
Weak race, jumps nicely and no signs of quirks as per press. WIN Â£1.00
November profit and loss: +Â£0.50
Thursday 17 November 2011
There are no selections today, nothing came close to qualifying.
Friday 18 November 2011
Selection: Toubab 1.20 Haydock is currently trading at 11/8 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (Thursday 18.34).
Definitely going to win when fell and we had secured a great price, started at 4/5. LOSE.
Selection: Appeal 5.15 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 6/4 with Ladbrokes best price guaranteed (Thursday 19.51).
Thought this would start 10/11 or 4/5 and got that wrong but she wins nonethelessÂ at 13/8 and we will take that. WIN Â£1.63
November profit and loss: +Â£1.13
Saturday 19 November 2011
Strange as it may seem only Golden Gael 1.10 Huntingdon qualifies as a Pacafi Bet today and is too short a price at 4/11 and there is an Alan King horse running in the race who has too much of a chance so we are going to side-step this race. There are no Pacafi Bets today.
Monday 21 November 2011
Selection: Owen Glendower 1.10 Ludlow is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.48).
What a day for Nicky Henderson? Just selecting one feels that I have missed out especially after having three qualifiers of his on a short-list to chose from. WIN Â£0.80
November profit and loss: +Â£1.93
Tuesday 22 November 2011
There areÂ three qualifiers for the Pacafi Bet today but in all honesty they are just too short in price to select. I have been unable to find any value whatsoever. We could select Finbar 12.40 Southwell at 4/9, Countrywide Flame 2.00 Sedgefield at 4/11 and Take Cover 2.10 Southwell at 5/4 but the prices do not reflect value per chance. They will probably win but that is not what we are trying to do with our bet (09.15).
Wednesday 23 November 2011
Our recordsÂ PROVE we generally get it right concerning value. Despite backing our selections very early in the morning we manage to beat the SP 80% of the time. But we are not getting rightÂ enough of the time and missing many winners. The last month has been a case in point where horses have qualified for the Pacafi Bet but we have deemed them without value. In the last six weeks alone we have missed out on about 12 points profit and this is something that weÂ need to work on. Perceived value is the most contentious aspect of selecting a horse to make a profit and I do not suppose there is a single person who has the monopoly on this, meanwhile I realise that I have much to do!
Once again yesterday's selections clearly showed I missed winners with some value attached. Finbar was 4/9 then firmed to 1/3 and Take Cover was 5/4 and shortened to 8/11. Both won easily so they were not only qualifiers for the bet but had value at the time of the blog! Countrywide Flame also won easily but that one did ease to 4/9 from 4/11. I have spoken to Matt about this problem before and it might be that although I do not tighten up on the actual selectionsÂ I give I might need to relax the processes a touch to register more winners and profits. If you saw my spreadsheet containing the qualifiers for the last two months you would be amazed, they are winning at a strike rate of nearly 64% and average odds of 2.19 (not the best odds and not Betfair odds).
After all this there is not one single qualifier for the Pacafi Bet today so there is no bet. Might have rambled on a bit, apologies to the reader but I think I needed this cathartic exercise.
Thursday 24 November 2011
Selection: Grand Crus 2.10 Newbury is currently trading at 3/10 with William Hill best price guaranteed (08.33). WIN Â£0.30
November profit and loss: +Â£2.23
There was another horse that qualified for the Pacafi Bet but I wouldÂ NEVER get involved with the stable irrespective of criteria, reason, conditions, cause, incentive, form, data, rationale, logic, sense, motive or basis! The horse concerned is Mangonel 2.00 Uttoxeter currently trading at 8/11 (08.42).
Got that one right!
Friday 25 November 2011
There are three qualifiers for the bet today but all are too short for us so there is no Pacafi Bet today! For interest purposes they were Kie 12.40 Musselburgh, Eradicate 1.25 Doncaster and Allow Me 1.50 Musselburgh.
All three won again and Allow Me was 10/11...
Saturday 26 November 2011
Selection: Prospect Wells 12.55 Newbury is currently trading at 4/6 with Betfred best price guaranteed (08.51). WIN Â£0.67
November profit and loss: +Â£2.90
Sunday 27 November 2011
There are no selections today.
Monday 28 November 2011
Selection: Golden Firebird 3.40 Folkestone is currenty trading at 4/9 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.48). Backed from 4/9 to 1/4. LOSE.
November profit and loss: +Â£1.90
Tuesday 29 November 2011
There is not a Pacafi Bet today. We wanted to select Emmuska 1.45 Lingfield (7/4) but Richard Hannon has compromised the bet by fielding the second favourite Tones (3/1). The favourite is ridden by an apprentice and the latter by Jimmy Fortune, so mixed messages for us. We like Kieran O'Neill but if the favourite were my horse I would offset his 3lbs that he claims with a ride from Jimmy Fortune. If Emmuska beats Tones by a neck I will eat my words but do not think that is likely to happen...
Emmuska did not beat Tones by a neck so noÂ need for me to eat my words (it was 3/4l). Net result is another qualifier for the bet wins and we did not back it. I dare not add up those winning qualifiers that we did not back this month. Suffice it to say it must beÂ close toÂ 10 points and that is not counting last months. We are not saying we have the balance right at the moment...
Wednesday 30 November 2011
There are no Pacafi Bet qualifiers today so no bet...
Thursday 1 December 2011
Selection: Kells Belle 2.00 Leicester is currently trading at 5/6 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Wed 22.38).
Not a great race to get involved in with hindsight. Knew the winner was well in and a live danger. That said Nicky Henderson thought his horse would win as she was backed from 5/6 to 4/6. LOSE £1.
Friday 2 December 2011
Selection: Fingal Bay 1.55 Sandown is currently trading a 6/4 with Ladbrokes best price guaranteed (Thursday 21.36).
Thought we had grabbed some value here and so it proved. Given a race by Simonsig but won. WIN £1.50
Selection: Double Trouble 6.40 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 1/2 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (10.10.).
Did not like the second favourite at all (our only perceived danger) and thought our selection could go off much shorter but didn't but she won her weak maiden. WIN £0.50
December profit and loss to date: +Â£1.00
Saturday 3 December 2011
There is not a Pacafi Bet today. There was two qualifiers but they were deemed unsafe.
Wednesday 7 December 2011
Spent the day at Jackdaws Castle, what a fabulous day it was! The Welsh Grand National winner is Arbor Supreme!
Thursday 8 December 2011
Selection: Rolling Aces 12.50 Taunton is currently trading at 4/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (10.42).
Backed from 4/6 into 8/15 and then just beaten (LOSE Â£1). Richard Johnson v Nick Scholfield in a finish...
Friday 9 December 2011
Selection: Solix 12.00 Cheltenham is currently trading at 11/10 with 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Thursday 21.10). Corals are offering 6/5 but not bpg.
This horse is a work in progress but once he gets it all together he is going to be some horse (WIN £1.10)
Selection: Darlan 3.30 Cheltenham is currently trading at 4/9 with Betfred best price guaranteed (Thursday 21.12).
Believed this horse would go off shorter but started at 4/6? We will take the best price guaranteed but seems to be a piece of the jigsaw missing, why the drift? OK, he only just got home under a McCoy drive but...(WIN £0.67).
Profit for December 2011: +£1.77
Saturday 10 December 2011
Missed the price on Hinterland 12.35 Cheltenham - there is not a Pacafi Bet today!
Monday 12 December 2011
Selection: El Dancer 3.00 Fakenham is currently 2/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.10).
Thought Lucy had the horse half fit but she had not, looked a poor bet the following morning (LOSE £1)
Profit for December: +£0.77
Tuesday 13 December 2011
Selection: Hunt Ball 2.40 Folkestone is currently trading at 8/11 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (00.40).
This was a lovely bet all things considered and a great price! (£0.73)
Profit for December: +£1.50
Wednesday 14 December 2011
Selection: Time For Rupert 2.35 Newbury is currently trading at 8/13 with William Hill best price guaranteed (07.24).
Thought he jumped particularly well for Denis O'Regan, very quick over the fences. We had taken 4/6 and thought we had posted it to the site, a bit of a cock-up really, felt better after the horse had won. (WIN £0.62)
Profit for December: +£2.12
Friday 16 December 2011
Selection: Thehillofuisneach 2.20 Uttoxeter is currently trading at 2/1 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (00.20).
Correction: Apologies, in the process of writing up a blog on our website the horse has shortened into 15/8 with Paddy Power and must now be recorded at that price. We had taken the 2/1 on two occasions previously (one bet for ourselves and one as an agent) but we always double check the price remains before logging off though I doubt it was our money that was responsible etc (00.27)....
The horse wins his race and a great bet landed. We had this one picked days before the race and it was most satisfying. I would encourage punters to visit yards, the trainers these days accept such visits readily and it can be most rewarding. One of those bets where we told the family and friends and everyone was on and it was not at 15/8! (WIN £1.88).
Profit for December: +£4.00
Will chat about the Welsh Grand National here shortly but favourite Synchronised will not win but another Jonjo O'Neill horse will!
Monday 19 December 2011
Selection: Cucumber Run 1.00 Plumpton is currently trading at 1/3 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (02.21) and should win!
Backed from 1/3 to 1/4 and got beat a head, clearly the best horse but winner had rail on the run in with no jumping errors previously (LOSE £1).
Profit for December: +£3.00
Tuesday 20 December 2011
Only one horse qualified for the bet today and is far too short a price, there is not a Pacafi Bet today!
Wednesday 21 December 2011
Selection: Karma Chameleon 4.00 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 7/4 with Ladbrokes best price guaranteed (09.44).
Drifted to 9/4 but won by six lengths - we were delighted (WIN £2.25).
Profit for December: +£5.25
We would like to take this opportunity to thank Matt once again for allowing me to proof my selections on his site. We would like to wish Matt and his readers a very Happy Christmas!
Monday 26 December 2011
Selection: Long Run 3.10 Kempton is currently trading at 11/8 best price guaranteed with William Hills (Saturday 12.44).
Profit for December: +£4.25
Tuesday 27 December 2011
Finians Rainbow 2.40 Kempton is currently trading at 8/13 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (Monday 22.55).
Profit for December 2011: +£4.87
Wednesday 28 December 2011
There is not a Pacafi Bet today, three qualifiers but all carry a slight negative that stops us from nominating them...
One was a non-runner but the other two won and yes I would say that wouldn't I?
Thursday 29 December 2011
Sincere apologies but my computer locked up on me and I could not use it until early evening. Once again we missed a couple of winners but this time they both carried a green light. Most frustrating!
Friday 30 December 2011
Selection: Menorah is currently trading at 1/4 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (00.04).
Profit for December 2011: +£5.12
Tuesday 3 January 2012
Selection: Blaugrana 12.55 Southwell is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.41). Win £0.80
Selection: Ingleby Arch 12.25 Southwell is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.45). Lose £1
Profit and Loss for January 2012: -£0.20
Wednesday 4 January 2012
Selection: Whatshallwedonow 2.40 Southwell is currently trading at 8/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed (01.10). Lose £1
Thursday 5 January 2012
Selection: Sawago 1.20 Lingfield is currently trading at 4/6 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (Wed 23.25).
Not sure why this horse was selected, a rank poor bet and one we regretted shortly after nominating. On a good day we cannot get the Gary Moore stable right, unhappy with ourselves with this one and definitely below standard set...LOSE £1
Selection: Tornado Force 5.40 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 8/13 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Wed 23.16).
Best horse - cockiest jockey - lost. LOSE £1
Friday 6 January 2012
Selection@ Northern Spy 1.10 Lingfield is currently trading at 8/15 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and this looks a good price (08.14).
Sunday 8 January 2012
Selection: Ishiamiracle 2.50 Southwell is currently trading at 11/8 with William Hill best price guaranteed (Saturday 18.31).
After attracting early support and shortening into even money it went on a walk out to 15/8 and this was despite the trainer/jockey combo having the first winner so plenty of funds in the kitty. Looked like the horse tried but jockey might have gone off a bit too quick even for a horse that got the distance and why, when he had the choice, did he stay on far side and much the slowest part of the course - madness! He was the only jockey riding there! We backed the horse and jockey so our fault, would love an explanation though (LOSE £1)
Loss for January 2012: -£5.20
Monday 9 January 2012
Selection: Mataajir 3.25 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 13/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (00.10).
Ran his race and no complaints, we probably asked too much of this horse on this occasion and this might not have been the best bet we have ever made. LOSE £1
Loss for January: -£6.20
Apologies for late updating of proofing, have excuses but promise to catch up tomorrow...
Tuesday 10 January 2012
Selection: Hada Men 1.55 Southwell is currently trading at 2/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (00.57).
Needed a good un to break our miserable run and boy this was a gimmee! WIN £0.29
Selection: Laffan 2.25 Southwell is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (00.57).
Backed from 11/8 to 11/10 and wins under a great ride from Phillip Makin. Actually beat Joe Fanning who rode a perfect race yet finished second such was the quality. WIN £1.37
Loss for January to date: -£4.54
Thursday 12 January 2012
Selection: Dancing Eddie 2.25 Southwell is currently trading at 7/4 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (00.06).
We love backing this stable, one we tend to get right! Opened at 7/4 and heavily supported into 5/6 and Phillip Makin does the business (do like that jockey when he has the horse). Gave us a double on the Ryan's horses at great prices over the last 24 hours. WIN £1.75
Loss for January to date: -£2.79
Saturday 14 January 2012
Selection: Menorah 1.05 Kempton is currently trading at 4/9 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (01.12).
Touched 4/6 at one point and we doubled up our bet, thought that tremendous value against the five-year old. That said paid out at 4/7 and a most enjoyable result. We do believe that Richard Johnson does not suit the horse however, watched all his races and it so apparent! WIN £0.57
Loss for January to date: -£2.22
Monday 16 January 2012
Selection: Lady Kathleen 2.40 Plumpton is currently trading at 4/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.41). We had priced up at 4/7.
Selection: Double Handful 4.10 Plumpton is currently trading at 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and we think this is value (Sunday 23.45).
Wednesday 18 January 2012
Selection: Vulcanite 2.15 Southwell is currently trading at 1/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (10.11) and it is hard to oppose him. We priced the horse up at 1/5 so there is even a bit of value, must start at that price...
Friday 20 January 2012
Apologies for slow updating, not felt very well the last few days and not at the races...
Selection: Distime 2.40 Catterick is currently trading at 15/8 with Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Betfred and Paddy Power best price guaranteed (we have missed the 2/1 on offer for the purposes of the bet though we have personally secured that price to decent stakes with two of the above).
Selection: Junoob 3.05 Lingfield is currently trading at 8/15 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed and this must be a whopping big price?
Saturday 21 January 2012
Selection: Cinder And Ashes 12.40 Haydock is currently trading at 8/13 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (01.14). WIN £1.62
Selection: Celestial Halo 1.45 Haydock is currently trading at 8/15 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (01.19).
Drifted to 6/5 and will take best price guaranteed. WIN £1.20
Tuesday 24 January 2012
Once again we are struggling to find qualifiers for our bet so there is not a Pacafi Bet today.
Wednesday 25 January 2012
Selection: Dark Castle 6.40 Kempton is currently trading at 5/6 with Betfred best price guaranteed (09.21).
Our selection was backed to win and went from 5/6 to 8/13 but beaten by improving filly with Luke Morris aboard. This will win next time out if not rushed. LOSE £1.
Thursday 26 January 2012
Selection: Musir 5.15 Meydan is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 and William Hills best price guaranteed (00.01).
We knew we had a good price and the horse won easily enough. The danger Presvis was not ready, we knew that so a handsome price indeed. WIN £1.37
Selection: Nacho Libre 8.05 Kempton is currently trading at 7/4 with Victor Chandler best price guaranteed (00.01).
The horse was backed from 7/4 to 10/11 and was meant to win but second time undone this week by AW King Luke Morris, he rides it so well. Might stop opposing him in races, sinks our bets. LOSE £1.
Saturday 28 January 2012
Selection: Menorah 1.50 Doncaster is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and we are really interested to see how Tom O'Brien rides him compared to Richard Johnson who, in our opinion, does not get on with the horse!
Hard to accept this sort of thing but that we must! Absolutely convinced he would win and give us five from five backing him. LOSE £1
Monday 30 January 2012
Selection: Chabada 5.40 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 11/8 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (01.39)
Selection: Diocles 12.50 Ayr is currently trading at 2/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.53)
Took 2/5 and backed into 2/7 though had to work hard to win. WIN £0.40
Tuesday 31 January 2012
Selection: Fantasy Fry 3.30 Southwell is currently trading at 4/1 with Betfred best price guaranteed (00.51).
We had the price at 4/1, heavily backed into 3.30 on Betfair at one point before starting at 11/4 but no show, disappointing he got nowhere near his last run. The race looked to suit him LOSE £1
A terrible January for us and a loss of over three points, not sure we deserved the score. Profit and Loss for January 2012: LOST £3.28 to £1 level stakes.
Wednesday 1 February 2012
Selection: Cats Eyes 4.50 Kempton is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.22).
Missed the start but a bit in hand, wins the races but Rule 4 pinched us. Certain to be placed to follow up. WIN £0.58
Apologies for no comments yesterday but got called away on a domestic issue.
Friday 3 February 2012
Selection: Captivity 3.50 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 5/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed. We are not claiming value today but think the price is about right. They might back Rei D'Oro against ours so it is possible we gain bpg. Stan James are offering 11/8 at the moment (09.32).
Got a lot right about this race except the result. LOSE £1
Saturday 4 February 2012
Selection: Oscar Whisky 2.45 Ffos Las is currently trading at 4/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed and cannot be opposed. We know Dai Walters the owner (and the builder of Ffos Las) and he wants to double up this race more than anything. The price is value - should be 1/4. NON RUNNER
Selection: Falcons Reign 4.05 Lingfield is currently trading at 4/9 with Ladbrokes best price guaranteed (10.44). Not an inspired selection we know...
Tuesday 7 February 2012
Selection: Gabrial's King 4.30 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 6/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (00.42).
Selection: Derivatives 3.15 Southwell is currently trading at 1/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and will probably start at 1/6. (08.53).
The second worst losing bet of all time and one where you try and pinch and not bet - an absolute shocker and a new rule as part of the criteria has gone into the Pacafi Bet. None will ever be struck at less than 1-3 in future. We will just watch them win.
Thursday 9 February 2012
Selection: Bold Silvano 4.55 Meydan is currently trading at 6/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (23.43 Wednesday). LOSE £1
Friday 10 February 2012
Selection: Where's Reiley 2.25 Southwell is currently trading at 11/10 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.52). WIN £1.10
Tuesday 14 February 2012
Selection: Brunello 4.55 Southwell is currently trading at 5/4 Bet365 best price guaranteed (01.42).
Fallon for O'Meara. WIN £1.25
Thursday 17 February 2012
Selection: Sprinter Sacre 12.10 Newbury is currently trading at 4/7 with William Hill first past the post and best price guaranteeed (Thursday 21.12).
Great price we thought. WIN £0.57
Selection: Zarkander 1.15 Newbury is currently trading at 3/1 with William Hill first past the post and best price guaranteed (Thursday 21.13).
Enjoyed this result especially when you consider the trainer form (current). WIN £3.
Monday 20 February 2012
Selection: Al Freej 5.00 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 11/8 with both BetVictor and Paddy Power best price guaranteed (00.35) and this looks a fair price. We would have taken 5/4 and considered 11/10.
The horse was backed but Dominic Fox caught napping then average ride, disappointed. LOSE £1.
Wednesday 22 February 2012
Selection: Oscar Nominee 3.00 Doncaster is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed and looks a good price, should appreciate today's going (09.04).
Thought he was a bit better than that and at one point in trouble. WIN £0.91
Profit for February 2012 to date: +£3.61.
Notice that so far with our trial with Geegeez we have nominated 213 selections of which 114 have won. Not taking credit for that as our strike rate of 54% and a profit of 17 points (level stakes) is below our promised 58%. These results did include a horrible June 2011 where we lost seven and a half points and had bets in it that were not Pacafi related. This could NEVER happen again, every horse must meet criteria EVERY time. We have learnt loads since then...
Friday 24 February 2012
Selection: Falcon's Reign 2.15 Lingfield is trading at 4/6 with Ladbrokes best price guaranteed (09.28).
Supported but beaten. LOSE £1
Profit for February 2012: +£2.61
Saturday 25 February 2012
Selection: Grumeti 3.40 Kempton is currently trading at 4/5 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (09.52).
Wins the races but clobbered with a Rule 4. WIN £0.64
Profit for February 2012: +£3.25
A small profit for the month...
Thursday 1 March 2012
Selection: Dream Again Boys 3.40 Taunton is currently trading at 10/11 with BetVictor best price guaranteed (Wednesday 21.58).
Went against the statistics but the horse appeared so well in. Cannot fully understand a) why we nominated it, Jonjo 0-31 at Taunton or b) why it did not win with horse in form and conditions to suit and nearly a stone in hand. Net result LOSE £1.
Friday 2 March 2012
Selection: Lidar 3.05 Doncaster is currently trading at 10/11 with Betfred best price guaranteed (08.33). We priced it up at 4/5.
Backed from 10/11 to 8/13 but ran through the fourth fence - spent. LOSE £1
Selection: Za'lan 3.20 Lingfield is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.42).
Wins the races but clobbered by another Rule 4. WIN £0.77
Loss for March 2012: -£2.25
Selection: Lyvius 1.50 Newbury is currently trading at 1/2 with Paddy Power and Betfred best price guaranteed (09.30).
Saturday 3 March 2012
Selection: Dorothy's Dancing 2.50 Lingfield is currently trading at 13/8 with BetVictor best price guaranteed (02.02).
Backed from 13/8 to 8/11 but leader too much rope. LOSE £1
Tuesday 6 March 2012
Selection: Rhymers Ha' 2.20 Newcastle is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.23).
Backed from 1/2 to 4/11, argy bargy on run-in, came off worse. LOSE £1
Backed as defeat was out of the question but found one. LOSE £1.
Wednesday 7 March 2010
Selection: Baby Driver 8.30 Kempton is currently trading at 6/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.54). LOSE £1.
Thursday 8 March 2012
Selection: Overrule 2.20 Southwell is currently trading at 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.32). LOSE £1.
Selection: Pelican Rock 3.25 Southwell is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.36).
Drifted to evens before winning but we will take that. WIN £1.
Saturday 10 March 2012
Selection: Tiger Maguire 2.30 Chepstow is currently trading at 13/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.14).
Thought he was a little better. LOSE £1.
Monday 12 March 2012
Selection: Relax 3.00 Plumpton is currently trading at 8/15 with BetVictor best price guaranteed (08.10).
Wins easily. WIN £0.53
Tuesday 13 March 2012
Selection: Hurricane Fly 3.20 Cheltenham is currently trading at even money with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (08.04).
Hard to believe the casual ride Ruby gave this one, did not seem to appreciate the pace in the race but who are we to question Ruby, nobody else has queried the ride so perhaps I have missed something! Ferdy Murphy said he might have peaked in January - will not back him at Punchestown. LOSE £1.
Thursday 15 March 2012
Selection: Big Bucks 3.20 Cheltenham is currently trading at 4/6 with Stan James (06.53). Seems a good price to me.
We took 4/6 with Stan James but paid 5/6 - a rare mistake on pricing. WIN £0.67
Selection: Huckleberry 2.30 Towcester is currently trading at 15/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (07.11).
Backed from 15/8 into 11/8 and wins the races, makes up for the Jonjo O'Neill handicapper at Taunton that was also 10lbs well in. WIN £1.88
Tuesday 20 March 2012
Selection: Bella Ophelia 4.20 Southwell is currently trading at 8/11 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (Mon 22.06).
Might be a tired filly now and will leave her alone for a while. LOSE £1.
Wednesday 21 March 2012
Selection: Oscar's Secret 2.20 Warwick is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.14).
Shoddy jumping and never going to win, stable unsure going from 8/11 to 5/6, writing was on the wall at the tapes. LOSE £1.
Selection: Outrageous Request 2.30 Hereford is currently trading at 5/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.16).
Lucky winner WIN £1.25
Thursday 22 March 2012
Selection: Baileys Strider 8.30 Kempton is currently trading at 7/4 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (08.30).
We really fancied this horse but a non-runner...
Friday 23 March 2012
Selection: Apothecary 7.10 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 7/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.48).
Not given the best ride, best horse in the race but gave away first run. Racing Post called in unlucky. Backed from 7/4 to 6/5. LOSE £1.
Selection: Trail Of Tears 8.40 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 13/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.49).
No significant improvement from first run. LOSE £1
Saturday 24 March 2012
Selection: Royal Opera 2.30 Kelso is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (and 5/6 with Skybet 08.46).
It was a weak race but won it nicely enough, backed from 4/5 to 4/6. WIN £0.80
Loss for February 2012 to date: -£4.54.
Monday 26 March 2012
Selection: Red Somerset 2.15 Lingfield is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.11).
Drifts to 6/5 but wins like an 8/11. WIN £1.20
Loss for February 2012 to date: -£3.34
Wednesday 28 March 2012
Selection: Furner's Green 5.25 Leopardstown is currently trading at 5/4 with Boylesports and Paddy Power (08.21) best price guaranteed.
Thursday 29 March 2012
Selection: Spartan Spirit 6.25 Kempton is currently trading at 2/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (06.48). Appreciate a short price but looks a good bet even at these odds...
Got backed into 1/4 from 2/5 but threw head in the air when about to win, not sure what to make of that. LOSE £1
Selection: Colour Guard 8.25 Kempton is currently trading at 5/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (06.59).
Quick races caught up with him and probably best avoided - ouch. LOSE £1
Loss for February 2012: -£6.34
Friday 30 March 2012
Selection: Quinsman 2.20 Lingfield is currently trading at even money with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.23).
Although the horse was backed from evens to 4/5 we were worried about a lack of pace in the race (factored that into the price or so we thought) and that was the undoing. Cannot decide if it was a good bet or a bad bet. It losT so I supppose it was a bad un!
Selection: Prince Tam 3.00 Newcastle is currently trading at 5/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (08.31).
This horse was heavily backed to win going from 5/4 into 4/6. LOSE £1
Loss for March 2012 to date: -£8.34 and we are flabbergasted!
Saturday 31 March 2012
Selection: Eshtibaak 3.30 Kempton is currently trading at 3/1 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (08.32). Surely this is big?
Got smacked and the end of his race. LOSE £1.
Selection: Whisky Yankee 5.35 Stratford is currently trading at 5/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (08.42).
Got the job done. WIN £1.25
Selection: North Stack 5.45 Uttoxeter is currently trading at 2/1 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (08.50).
Supported and remain convinced best horse but LOSE £1.
March 2012: LOSS OF £9.09
Saturday 7 April 2012
Selection: Hindon Road 3.05 Newton Abbot is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.28). LOSE £1.
Tuesday 10 April 2012
Selection: Out Of The Blocks 2.10 Yarmouth is currently trading at even money with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.27). LOSE £1.
Wednesday 11 April 2012
Selection: Black Cadillac 9.00 Kempton is currently trading at 7/4 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.03). WIN £1.75
Friday 13 April 2012
Selection: The Weatherman 2.10 Sedgefield is currently trading at 10/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.28).
Saturday 14 April 2012
Selection: Simonsig 1.45 Aintree is currenty trading at 1/2 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (08.43). WIN £0.50
Selection: Bartolomeu 4.45 Lingfield is currently trading at even money with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (08.50). WIN £1
Tuesday 16 April 2012
Selection: Themilanhorse 2.30 Exeter is currently trading at 4/9 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.22).
Wednesday 18 April 2012
Selection: Zumbi 3.35 Newmarket is currently trading at 5/4 with BetVictor and Paddy Power best price guaranteed (Tuesday 17 April 2012 at 19.46).
Thursday 19 April 2012
Selection: Most Improved 4.10 Newmarket is currently trading at 5/4 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (Wednesday 20.16). Non-runner...
Selection: Twice Over 4.45 Newmarket is currently trading at 11/8 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (Wednesday 20.24).
Not the best bet. Sir Henry Cecil said 'not fully wound up' but went against advice, subsequent LOSE £1.
Friday 20 April 2012
Selection: Night Carnation 6.30 Bath is currently trading at 15/8 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (07.43). Price looks very big.
Keen early, race over. LOSE £1
Selection: Blue Hills 5.40 Southwell is currently trading at 2/1 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.33). He is 9/4 with Corals.
Brucie Bonus 5/2 and WIN £2.50
Selection: Lethal Force 5.30 Bath is currently trading at 2/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.38). Apologies went to place bet at 08.38 but screen reverted to SP. Bet not on at this time. Waiting confirmation of the price. The bet has been confirmed at 2/5 bpg with Bet365 (09.28).
Update: It has transpired that this price is not available now (09.52) because of a non-runner so the bet is currently VOID! We will not be taking 4/11 as 2/5 was our bottom line. We will confirm the bet should Bet365 offer 2/5. Please hold...
Paddy Power have confirmed they will give 2/5 best price guaranteed on Lethal Force and we have a bet (10.04). Not the best days work by Bet365 and we have told them so! Apologies if I have caused any confusion.
Saturday 21 April 2012
Selection: Bronterre is currently trading at 4/6 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (01.00).
Too keen early - end of story! LOSE £1.
Sunday 22 April 2012
Selection: Nephrite 3.50 Curragh is currently trading at 8/15 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.21).
Got this terribly wrong. Made somebody else's mistake but unhappy with my decision making. Worst bet for ages but still convinced Aidan O'Brien had this horse schooled in public and have decided NEVER to back one of his horses again. Always been against multiple entries, team tactics, horses giving room for stablemates etc etc etc... LOSE £1.
Monday 23 April 2012
Selection: Seven Woods 7.45 Ffos Las is currently trading at 5/6 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.31).
The Henderson horse was backed into 1/2 so value secured. WIN £0.83
Profit and Loss to date for April 2012: -£0.52
Wednesday 25 April 2012
Selection: Astracad 3.00 Perth is currently trading at 2/5 with BetVictor best price guaranteed (09.43).
Selection: Flaming George 5.25 Hereford is currently trading at 8/13 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (09.56).
Think there is a touch of value in both bets, not a lot but a touch...
Monday 30 April 2012
Selection: Standpoint 6.55 Wolverhampton is currently trading at 10/11 with Skybet (10.31).
Friday 4 May 2012
Selection: Van Ellis 7.05 Dundlalk is currently trading at 8/11 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.42). If he is what we think he is could start a lot shorter - concerned if he does not!
Tuesday 8 May 2012
Selection: Bold Henry 6.25 Exeter is currently trading at 2/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.18).
Selection: Lascaux 3.15 Southwell is currently trading at 4/7 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.35).
Looks a very poor bet today. LOSE £1.
Selection: Throwing Roses 6.10 Catterick is currently trading at even money with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.38). LOSE £1.
Wednesday 9 May 2012
Selection: Vivid Blue 3.30 Southwell is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.25). Backed from 1/2 to 1/3. WIN £0.50
Selection: High Storm 5.30 Ffos Las is currently trading at 11/8 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.43). Backed from 11/8 to 5/4. WIN £1.38
Selection: Larwood 8.00 Kempton is currently trading at 9/4 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (08.52). Backed but beaten. LOSE £1.
Friday 11 May 2012
Selection: Aiken 2.20 Ascot is currently trading at 5/6 with Boylesports best price guaranteed (Fri 23.29). Heavily backed winner. WIN £0.83.
Monday 14 May 2012
Selection: Martial Law 7.30 Towcester is currently trading at 4/6 with Bet365 and BetVictor best price guaranteed (01.02). A poor bet by our standards - ouch. LOSE £1.
Tuesday 15 May 2012
Selection: Armoury Hourse 4.40 Wincanton is currently trading at 4/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.47). LOSE £1.
Wednesday 16 May 2012
Selection: Lucky Beggar 6.40 Bath is currently trading at even money with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.25). LOSE £1.
Thursday 17 May 2012
Selection: Fort Bastion 8.05 Newmarket is currently trading at 11/10 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (00.18). Totesports are offering 11/8 (10.06). Drifted to 13/8 but on at best odds guaranteed. WIN £1.68
Selection: Pearl Secret 3.35 York is currently trading at 4/5 with BetVictor best price guaranteed (10.22). Started at 5/6 so WIN £0.83.
Selection: Varnish 1.40 Salisbury is currently trading at 13/8 with Skybet (10.30). WIN £1.67
Selection: Lord Redsgirth 2.50 Perth is currently trading at 1/2 with Paddy Power best price guaranteed (10.47).
Tuesday 22 May 2012
Selection: Miliika 2.30 Brighton is currently trading at 1/2 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (11.55).
Wednesday 23 May 2012
Selection: Abi Scarlet 2.20 Southwell is currently trading at 13/8 with William Hill first past the post and best price guaranteed (Tues 22.37).
Friday 25 May 2012
Selection: Qaadira 4.40 Haydock is currently trading at 8/13 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (08.23).
Saturday 26 May 2012
Selection: Asian Trader 2.55 Chester is currently trading at 6/5 with Bet365 best price guaranteed (09.37).
Sunday 27 May 2012
Selection: Cirrus Des Aigles 2.45 Longchamp is currently trading at 8/11 with William Hill best price guaranteed and first past the post (09.50).
Monday 28 May 2012
Selection: Dysphonia 4.30 Leicester is currently trading at 2/5 with BetVictor best price guaranteed (08.22).
Will update the results and summarise here on Saturday - apologies for getting a bit behind. Thanks again to Matt for allowing me to use Geegeez for the trial.